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A Vision Of Gold

Discussion in 'Gold Silver (All things Metal)' started by searcher, Sep 2, 2016.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Mechanics of the Chinese Domestic Gold Market

    -- Published: Monday, 14 August 2017

    By BullionStar

    https://www.bullionstar.com/

    Introduction
    The Chinese gold market is the world’s largest physical gold market. It is also one of the world’s most protected gold markets given that the importation of gold into China is still strictly controlled by the Chinese authorities, and the exportation of gold out of China is generally prohibited.

    Hence, the market is often referred to as the Chinese ‘domestic’ gold market since gold flows and gold trading in the market are predominantly domestic in nature. Despite these trade restrictions, China still manages to be the largest importer of gold in the world. Furthermore, the Chinese gold mining sector is also the largest producer of gold in the world.

    At the heart of the Chinese domestic gold market lies the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). Due to the depth of SGE liquidity and the centrally imposed rules of the Chinese gold market such as cross-border trade rules and VAT rules, nearly all gold flows in China are required to and/or are incentivized to pass through the SGE trading and vaulting system. This includes nearly all gold imported into China and nearly all gold mined within China. The SGE vaulting system consists of 61 vaults across 35 Chinese cities.

    In 2016, China net imported an estimated 1300 tonnes of goldhttps://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-net-imported-1300t-of-gold-in-2016/'>[1], and Chinese gold mines produced an estimated 455 tonnes of goldhttps://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2017-gold.pdf'>[2].

    During 2016, physical gold withdrawals from the SGE totalled 1970 tonneshttps://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/gold-market-charts/gold-market-charts-january-2017/'>[3], and total gold trading activity on the SGE during 2016 reached a record 24,338 tonneshttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201701/11/o9wsyZKEsMfjf0cp.pdf'>[4].

    Since nearly all physical gold supply in the Chinese market flows through the SGE vault network, by definition nearly all Chinese gold demand has to be met by withdrawing physical gold from the SGE (i.e. SGE gold withdrawals). Therefore an analysis of SGE gold withdrawals provides a realistic window into the true size of the Chinese gold market and the true size of Chinese gold demand.

    Physical gold withdrawal volumes from the SGE vaults are now remarkably large each year, and have continued to ramp up noticeably since 2013. In 2012, SGE gold withdrawals totalled 1139 tonnes. By 2013, gold withdrawals from the SGE vaults nearly doubled to 2197 tonnes. In 2014, the Exchange saw 2102 tonnes of gold withdrawn, and in 2015 a huge 2596 tonnes of gold left the SGE vaults. Gold withdrawals in 2016 were slightly down on 2015 with 1970 tonnes withdrawn.

    Some high-profile precious metals consultancies such as Thomson Reuters GFMS and the World Gold Council still publish annual Chinese gold demand figures that are far lower (for example 900 tonnes per annum) than the annual SGE gold withdrawal figures. These discrepancies are so large that they call for rigorous analysis and explanation. Not that other bodies, such as the China Gold Association (CGA) do state that Chinese gold demand equals SGE gold withdrawals.

    Contents
    Highlights
    • The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was established in 2002 as a free-market gold allocation mechanism for the domestic Chinese gold market in place of the previous central allocation model employed by the Chinese central bank.

    • By 2007, physical gold withdrawals from the SGE (SGE Gold Withdrawals) were fully meeting Chinese wholesale gold demand. Therefore SGE Gold Withdrawals are a suitable proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand.

    • Gold supply in China can be accounted for by gold imports, gold production from mining, gold recycling, disinvestment and recycling distortion

    • Gold demand in China comprises both consumer gold demand and institutional gold demand, both of which are met from gold withdrawals from the SGE

    • Since the SGE plays such a central role in the Chinese gold markets, the Chinese gold supply-demand equation can be overlaid on to SGE Supply and SGE Gold Withdrawals
    https://www.gold.org/download/file/2756/151200a.pdf'>[5]. The structure of this Exchange, still under the administration of the PBoC, would allow the Chinese State to monitor gold trading in the Chinese market, while giving China’s population access to the wholesale gold market. The Exchange was launched in October 2002, and by 2004, private citizens in China were allowed to trade in and own gold bullion.

    Prior to the launch of the SGE in 2002, the Chinese State had for 50 years practised a centralised model of gold allocation in the economy, with the PBoC solely responsible for trading gold in China and supplying the Chinese gold ‘market’ with an adequate allocation of gold each year.

    The adjustment from centralised allocation of gold to free market allocation of gold took a few years to reach a stage at which the Exchange was fully playing the allocation role. This is evident from the fact that between 2002 and 2006 inclusive, annual Chinese wholesale gold demand still exceeded SGE gold withdrawals, which meant that SGE gold supply was only partially meeting the national wholesale gold demand, with the PBoC still facilitating residual supply by direct allocation.

    Then in 2007 for the first time, physical gold withdrawals from the SGE began to equal Chinese wholesale gold demand. This signalled that the SGE had begun to fully fulfilling its gold allocation function for the entire Chinese gold market.

    The 2007 China Gold Association (CGA) Gold Yearbook confirmed this milestone:

    “2007年,上海黄金交易所黄金出库量363.194 吨,即我国当年的黄金需求量,

    In 2007, the amount of gold withdrawn from the warehouses of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the total [wholesale] gold demand of that year, was 363.194 tonnes …”

    The relevant CGA Gold Yearbooks from 2008 to 2011 also confirm that in each of these years SGE withdrawals exactly matched Chinese wholesale gold demand. Following this, from 2012 to the present, annual SGE withdrawals have approximately matched Chinese wholesale gold demand.

    SGE gold withdrawals are therefore a suitable proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand. However, note that true Chinese gold demand is slightly lower than SGE gold withdrawals due to adjustments for gold recycling.

    https://www.goldbarsworldwide.com/PDF/NBA_91_Shandong_Zhaojin_Gold_Bars.pdf'>[6].

    Specifically, the physical gold ingots /bars deliverable on the SGE Main Boardhttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/resources/file/2015/01/26/29484.pdf'>[7] are:
    • gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kg and a fineness of >= 999.9
    • gold ingots with a standard weight of 3 kg and a fineness of >= 999.5
    • gold ingots with a standard weight of 12.5 kg and a fineness >= 995.0
    • gold bars with a standard weight of 0.05 kg and a fineness of >= 999.9
    • gold bars with a Standard Weight of 0.1 kg and a fineness of >= 999.9
    Note that the gold ingots /bars deliverable on the SGE International Boardhttps://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/the-mechanics-of-the-shanghai-international-gold-exchange'>[8] are the 1 kg and 12.5 kgs gold ingots and the 0.1 kg gold bars.

    In July 2015, the LBMA and the SGE announced that they would both mutually recognise specifications for 9999 gold kilobarshttp://www.lbma.org.uk/_blog/lbma_media_centre/post/9999-kilobar-standard-endorsed-by-lbma-sge/'>[9], such as weight, dimensions, fineness, marks on bar.http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Press%20Releases/9999%20Kilobar%20Standard.pdf'>[10]

    [​IMG]


    Chinese VAT rules for Standard and non-Standard Gold on and off the SGE



    As regards trading liquidity, this creates a virtuous circle for the SGE since the rules on Standard Gold and the VAT rules funnel more gold trading activity through the Exchange. This boosts liquidity which in turn attracts more trading to the SGE to the higher trading liquidity present on the Exchange.

    http://www.en.sge.com.cn/eng_news_Announcement/542320'>[11]

    https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-net-imported-1300t-of-gold-in-2016/'>[12].

    Only PBoC approved commercial banks can import gold bullion into the domestic gold market. Currently there are thirteen banks approved by the PBOC to import gold bullion into China, four of which are foreign banks, namely HSBC, ANZ, Standard Chartered and United Overseas Bank (UOB), and the other nine of which are Chinese banks including ICBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank. See BullionStar Gold University article “Chinese Cross-border Trade Rules on Gold” for more details and a list of approved bankshttps://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/chinese-cross-border-trade-rules-gold#heading-3'>[13]:

    All bullion imported into the Chinese domestic gold market by PBoC approved banks above must be in the form of Standard Gold. And since Standard Gold must be first sold through the SGE, all bullion imported by the approved banks is first sold on the SGE.

    Chinese cross-border gold trade rules, specifically Article 6 of the PBoC “Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products” states that:

    “Gold to be imported … shall be registered at a spot gold exchange [SGE] approved by the State Council where the first trade shall be completed”https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/PBOC-2015-gold-trade-rules-announcement.pdf'>[14]

    Since only Standard Gold is tradable on the SGE, only Standard Gold is allowed into SGE certified vaults. Non-bank gold enterprises can also gain PBoC approval to import (and export) gold doré, ore and jewellery into / out of the domestic market.

    In general, gold bullion exports from the Chinese domestic gold market are prohibited. However, a number of forms of gold exports out of China are allowed. These include gold exports via processing trade, China Panda gold coin exports by the Chinese Mint, and small individual limits (50 grams) on individuals legally carrying gold across the border when leaving China.

    https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2017-gold.pdf'>[2], gold mining production in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the second largest source of gold supply for the Chinese domestic gold market after gold imports.

    The vast majority of this Chinese gold mining output is initially sold through the SGE. This is because trading liquidity is highest on the SGE. Since Standard gold is VAT exempt when traded on the SGE and since only Standard Gold can be traded on the SGE, Chinese miners are incentivized to cast their output into Standard Gold and sell it on the SGE.

    Note that overseas gold mining output from Chinese owned mines abroad can also be imported into the Chinese domestic gold market and then refined into Standard Gold by an SGE approved refinery before being traded over the SGE.

    Note also that Chinese gold mining companies are permitted to sell Non-Standard gold and other gold products off of the SGE. For example, the large gold miner China National Gold Group Corporation operates its own physical shop outlets / stores in which it sells gold bars and gold ornaments.

    [​IMG]

    Recycled Gold in the Chinese Domestic Market, by Category

    GFMS’ recycled gold data focuses only on scrap gold. This includes old gold jewellery sold by consumers and industrial product scrap. Conversely, the CGA data for recycled gold consists of three elements, namely, scrap gold, disinvestment, and a category of recycled gold known as recycled distortion. Some of these categories have a net effect on the gold price and some do not.

    Scrap Gold: Scrap gold refers to old gold products (from either jewellery or industrial products) that are sold for cash by consumers at the retail level. Scrap gold boosts real gold supply and has a net effect on the gold price. Both GFMS and the CGA include scrap gold flows in their respective gold supply statistics.

    Disinvestment: Disinvestment has an effect on institutional gold supply and also has a net effect on the gold price. In China, any individual or institutional investor can buy gold directly at the wholesale level on the SGE (investment demand) and then withdraw this gold from the SGE. If some of these investors subsequently decide to sell (supply) their gold again, they can sell it directly to a gold refinery. These gold flows are defined as disinvestment and these flows can then make their way back to the SGE vaults for trading on the SGE.

    Disinvestment of large amounts of investment gold will tend to be executed not at the retail level such as at a jewellery store but more likely at a gold refinery. But because disinvestment bypasses the retail level (e.g. jewellery shops and bank branches), disinvestment will not be captured by GFMS in its gold supply statistics. Note that the CGA does include disinvestment in its gold supply statistics.

    The final category can be labelled as Recycled Distortion, an example of which is “Process Scrap”. Process scrap refers to residual metal left over after fabrication or manufacturing of gold jewellery or industrial products. This could, for example, be from metal spilled during jewellery fabrication. The fabricator sells this scrap to a gold refinery which then reforms the gold into Standard Gold and the gold makes its way back to the SGE. Process scrap gold overstates supply to the SGE and also subsequent demand on the SGE but has no net effect on the gold price. So both supply and demand would need to be adjusted downwards in this case.

    Recycled distortion is a term used at BullionStar to refer to recycled gold that is not scrap and is not disinvestment, and that could include process scrap but also other types of recycling. Recycled distortion is not included in GFMS data, but is included in CGA data.

    Recycled distortion that flows through the SGE overstates both the supply and demand sides. When the volume of recycled distortion is subtracted from SGE withdrawals, the result is ‘True Chinese gold demand’.

    [​IMG]

    Chinese Domestic Gold Market Supply & Demand Balance

    The above supply and demand equation still excludes two further variables that may have an impact on supply or demand. On the supply side, stock carry over in SGE vaults from previous years is omitted as this information is not publicly available. On the demand side, gold purchased on the SGE that is left in the vaults is also omitted from the analysis since the size of these holdings are not known.

    From the above bar chart, it can be seen that the main reason why annual gold demand as defined by the consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS is far lower than the size of SGE withdrawals each year is because GFMS only estimates consumer gold demand and ignores institutional demand.

    GFMS Demand Data = Chinese consumer gold demand data

    By ignoring institutional demand which is essentially investment demand, the GFMS data is vastly underestimating investment demand for gold in China. The GFMS data is therefore incomplete and is not an accurate representation of full gold supply and demand in China.

    On a cumulative basis from January 2007 to September 2016, the difference between SGE gold withdrawals and GFMS gold demand reaches a massive 5922 tonnes of gold, as can be seen in the following chart:

    [​IMG]

    GFMS


    GFMS Gold Demand and SGE Gold Withdrawals, 2007 – 2016

    Remembering that:

    Chinese Wholesale Gold Demand = SGE Withdrawals = Consumer Demand + Institutional Demand + Recycled Distortion

    and that:

    Institutional Demand = Direct Purchases At The SGE

    and that:

    Consumer Demand + Institutional Demand = True Chinese Gold Demand

    Then it’s interesting to note that the China Gold Association (CGA) defines the difference between Chinese total gold demand and Chinese consumer gold demand as ‘Net Investment’. i.e.:

    Net Investment = SGE Withdrawals – Consumer Demand

    Net Investment = Institutional Demand + Recycled Distortion

    The composition of ‘Direct Purchases on the SGE‘ is also illuminating. In China, anyone can open an account and buy gold directly on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This includes individual citizens and wholesale enterprises such as jewelry manufacturers and bullion banks. About 50% of SGE gold withdrawals are from wholesale gold manufacturers/fabricators. The other 50% of SGE gold withdrawals are from individual and institutional customers who purchase gold on the SGE and then withdraw it from the SGE vault network.

    Some of the difference between GFMS consumer gold demand numbers and SGE gold withdrawals can legitimately be explained by phenomena that would inflate Chinese gold demand, such as inventory / stock movement changes and gold-for gold scrap (process scrap). Inventory / stock movement changes would, for example, be gold that jewellery manufacturers, gold refineries, industrial companies and the mint have bought at the SGE, but not yet sold in the retail market. But after adjusting for these legitimate explanations, whatever is left is genuine gold demand, created by direct purchases from individual and institutional customers on the SGE.

    ^ “China Net Imported 1,300t Of Gold In 2016”, BullionStar blogs, February 2016 https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-net-imported-1300t-of-gold-in-2016/

    ^ U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries ‘Gold’, January 2017 https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2017-gold.pdf

    ^ Gold Market Charts, January 2017 https://www.bullionstar.com/blog

    s/gold-market-charts/gold-market-charts-january-2017/

    ^ Shanghai Gold Exchange trading volumes, December 2016 and Year-to-Date http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201701/11/o9wsyZKEsMfjf0cp.pdf

    ^ World Gold Council, “2000 China Gold Economic Forum release action plan to deregulate China’s gold market”, press release, 15 November 2000 https://www.gold.org/download/file/2756/151200a.pdf

    ^ Shandong Zhaojin Gold & Silver Refinery Co Ltd https://www.goldbarsworldwide.com/PDF/NBA_91_Shandong_Zhaojin_Gold_Bars.pdf

    ^ Spot Trading Rules of the SGE, January 2015, Article 89 http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/resources/file/2015/01/26/29484.pdf

    ^ “Mechanics of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange”, BullionStar Gold University https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/the-mechanics-of-the-shanghai-internati

    onal-gold-exchange

    ^ “9999 Kilobar Standard – Endorsed by LBMA & SGE”, LBMA website http://www.lbma.org.uk/_blog/lbma_media_centre/post/9999-kilobar-standard-endor

    sed-by-lbma-sge/

    ^ “Specifications for a 1kg 9999 gold bar endorsed by the LBMA and SGE” http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/Press%20Releases/9999%20Kilobar%20Standard.pdf

    ^ list of SGE Standard Gold Bars and Standard Gold Ingots Delivery Refiners, February 2017, SGE website http://www.en.sge.com.cn/eng_news_Announcement/542320

    ^ “China Net Imported 1,300t of Gold In 2016”, BullionStar blogs, February 2016 https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/china-net-imported-1300t-of-gold-in-2016/

    ^ “Chinese Cross-border Trade Rules on gold – Importing Gold: Authorisation and Licensing” BullionStar Gold University https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/chinese-cross-bord

    er-trade-rules-gold#heading-3

    ^ “Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products” People’s Bank Of China, https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/PBOC-2015-gold-trade-rules-announcement.pdf

    ^ U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries ‘Gold’, January 2017 https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2017-gold.pdf

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  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    The Gold Is SAFE Fort Knox!!!
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Aug 22, 2017
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    China's Get the Gold Plan: Part II


    -- Published: Wednesday, 23 August 2017

    By David Smith

    Money Metals readers may remember my November 2014 report in which I discussed how gold flowed into China in "tributary fashion" like small streams flowing into a giant one. In this case, the gold has been streaming into China's increasingly massive thousands-of-tons gold hoard.

    [​IMG]

    In January, 2015, I penned an essay titled "China's Global Gold Supply "Game of Stones," outlining China's long-range goal to dominate the world's physical gold market.

    Well, events have moved massively forward since then. I want to update you as to just how much things have changed – and how close we may be to experiencing a "defining moment" in the gold market.

    I’m talking about a game-changing event that could, with little warning, propel the price of gold upward by hundreds – even thousands – of dollars per ounce in the space of a few weeks... conceivably overnight! (And since silver's price movements are highly correlated with that of gold, we could expect an upside explosion in silver as well.)

    China's 4-pronged gold accumulation strategy:
    First: Buy physical gold in world markets, re-fabricate it when necessary (into .9999 fine bars in Switzerland), and ship to the mainland.

    Second: Hoard all domestically-produced gold... which is now being done, even when produced from operations with foreign-partners. This is also true with silver production, e.g. Silvercorp Metals – a Canadian silver/lead producer with operations on the Chinese mainland.

    Third: Partner with (e.g. Pretivm Resources; Barrick Gold-Pascua Lama) or buy outright, gold explorer-producers located on foreign soil.

    Fourth: Purchase for cash, gold production "off the books" from 'informa' miners in S.E. Asia, Africa, and South America. China's intent is to supplant the U.S. as the largest holder of physical gold (claimed to be around 8,000 metric tons) on the planet. (Disclosure: I, David Smith, have held for several years, positions in Silvercorp and Pretivm, purchased in the open market.)

    Right now, China is vastly understating what it actually holds as well as how much is being imported.

    This deception is easier than ever because a significant amount is no longer routed (and thus reportable) through Hong Kong, but rather through other mainland entry ports. What the authorities admitted holding as of last summer was almost unbelievably small compared to what even the official figures streaming through Hong Kong alone, plus domestic production add to the total, and China is now the number one global gold producer.

    As reported by Steve St. Angelo China has, during Q1, 2017, imported a record 57.4 metric tons of gold to the mainland, from Australia.

    [​IMG]

    Notice the Australian/U.S. multi-year pattern of gold mine exports vs. production

    In Addition: A parallel determinant is China's effort to lessen its holdings of U.S. dollar reserves, by signing infrastructure agreements (denominated in yuan) with countries participating in its massive, long-term New Silk Road project. It's been reported that China has even approached Saudi Arabia about yuan-based oil sales – a direct threat to the decades-long monopoly of the U.S. petrodollar.

    And then there's this:

    The Perth Mint sold $11 billion worth of bullion to China last year alone, and demand continues to climb. Demand is so strong that Perth Mint brings in gold from mines in other countries like Papua New Guinea and New Zealand, and jewelry from South-East Asia that is refined down to the Mint's signature 99.99 percent gold bullion. (ABC News)

    and:

    Steve St. Angelo reports that so far in 2017, scrap gold recovery is down sharply, even though the price of gold has risen – an unusual historic occurrence.

    His projection for the year? "...as the price of gold has increased in 2017, global gold scrap supply will fall by almost a third, or 32% versus 2010... this major gold market indicator trend shift suggests that individuals are now holding onto their gold rather than sell it for a higher FIAT MONETARY PRICE."

    A Surprising Shock-Rise?
    Precious metals prices have been in a cyclical decline since mid-2011 – not unlike the last secular bull market in the 1970's – before gold's eight-fold rise less than two years later.

    It's understandable that you might meet this latest suggestion of an unexpected, massive rise in the price of gold and silver with skepticism. A rise that could take place so quickly that those who hesitate could not react before prices had climbed far above prevailing levels. Before the supply cupboard had been swept clean. But the truth is – it's not a pipe dream, not blowing smoke, not wishful thinking. This is not just possible, but increasingly probable.

    Everything in life involves playing the odds. If something is "unlikely" but possible, and if that something taking place had the potential of being a "game-changer," would you not seek to prepare for it in some measure?

    A vertical up-move in gold would place you in a tidy profit position, even if you held a relatively small amount (e.g. the oft-touted 5% of your investable assets). So, it's not necessary to mortgage the house or go into debt in order to "participate."

    I believe it's almost "a given" that precious metals will resume their secular bull run, which could continue for the next three to five years. If you agree, does it not make sense to begin (or continue) a conservative metals' acquisition plan? With little worry as to the price where you began?

    It's not that difficult. Either buy metals when you have some surplus investible funds, and/or do so on a regular, dollar-cost-average basis. If the "China card" never gets played, you'll still do well as metals' prices advance over the coming years. You'll have been purchasing "paid-up insurance" for the rest of your holdings, hedging more as time goes on.

    And one more thing. Don't think of it as "spending money" on buying gold and silver. You're simply exchanging continually-depreciating "paper promises" – the enduring term coined by David Morgan at TheMorganReport.com – for "honest money" which has stood the test for millennia and will likely continue for as far as the eye can see.

    Remember, if you don't hold it in your hand, you can't be sure you really own it. John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management covers this precisely, saying,

    When the market reverses, the diminished physical anchor to paper claims, concerns over title and encumbrances on central bank bullion, and worries over the drift of public policy will drive liquid capital into gold. However, this time around, it seems to us that the major recipient of flows will be the physical metal itself. Holders of paper claims to gold will receive polite and apologetic letters from intermediaries offering to settle in cash at prices well below the physical market. To those who wish to hold their wealth exclusively in paper assets, implicitly trusting the policy elites to resurrect normally functioning capital markets and economic conditions, we say good luck. For those who harbor doubts on such an outcome, we say get physical.

    David Smith is Senior Analyst for TheMorganReport.com and a regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. For the past 15 years, he has investigated precious metals’ mines and exploration sites in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Bolivia, China, Canada, and the U.S. He shares his resource sector findings with readers, the media, and North American investment conference attendees.

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  5. searcher

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    Golden Gamble. Gold mining in the Philippines, a dirty business
    RT Documentary



    Published on May 4, 2017
    More films about the Philippines: https://rtd.rt.com/tags/philippines/
    - The use of child labour in the Philippine’s Paracale, or ‘Goldtown’, is widespread
    - Extracting gold involves diving into mud-filled shafts and using toxic mercury
    - Poverty and lack of alternative jobs force people into this highly dangerous work
    - Many die young due to work accidents or breathing problems, others develop chronic illness


    The Philippines’ town of Paracale was dubbed “Goldtown” for its rich deposits of the precious metal. Despite government attempts to regulate mining, illegal pits are still commonplace. They lack even the most basic health and safety and workers are exposed to toxic mercury fumes. Dirty water causes skin diseases and they live with the constant threat of being buried alive. Workers continue to take these risks day after day, because there is no other source of income. Many of the gold miners are children whose families can’t afford to send them to school.

    Some gold is panned on the surface, but a lot has to be extracted from underground. To do that, prospectors dive into narrow, mud-filled shafts, uses snorkelling masks and long tubes too breathe. If the mine collapses, they have no chance of escape. They have a saying here, ‘while you’re down the mine, you have one foot in the grave’. Several miners have already died that way, others from respiratory diseases caused by inhaling mercury fumes. The toxic metal is used in gold extraction with no safety precautions, so it poisons the air, the ground and the water, causing long-term harm to the whole community.

    Another danger to the inhabitants of Paracale comes from disused mines, abandoned and left open, waiting for unsuspecting victims to fall in. The business takes its toll on workers, their families and the community. They have been known to demonstrate, demanding safer working conditions, better pay and other job opportunities, but change is slow. Meanwhile, extreme poverty among people who produce one of the world’s most precious metals leaves them no option but to continue with this pitiless occupation.

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    When the United States Owned Most of the Gold on Earth



    -- Published: Wednesday, 6 September 2017

    By Michael J. Kosares
    Author, The ABCs of Gold Investing: How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold
    Founder, USAGOLD

    Few Americans know that, just after World War II, the United States owned most of the gold bullion on earth – about 22,000 metric tonnes. In fact by 1945, it owned over 80% of the gold held by nation-states and central banks – an impressive display of economic power. Now it owns just over 8000 metric tonnes, which represents about 42% of the total global reserve.

    The lost 14,000 tonnes were expended in defense of the $35 per ounce gold benchmark price established under the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. In addition to the fixed price of gold, the U.S dollar came to represent a fixed weight of gold, i.e., 1/35th of a troy ounce, and the rest of the world’s currencies were then pegged to the dollar. The United States agreed under Bretton Woods to redeem gold from the other signatories at the rate of $35 per ounce should any of the participants determine that gold might be a better alternative for a portion of their reserves than U.S. dollars. “The dollar,” American policy makers were wont to say, “was as good as gold.”

    Germany, France get the idea dollar not as good as gold

    All proceeded in orderly fashion with little in the way of redemptions from the massive U.S. stockpile until the 1960s. Then a group of European nation-states, led by Germany and France, got the idea that U.S. inflationist economic policies had undermined the dollar, making gold a bargain at $35 per ounce. In other words, they came to the conclusion that the dollar was not as good as gold. Steadily, over a decade long period, they exchanged dollars for gold at the U.S. Treasury’s gold window. By the early 1970s, 14,000 tonnes of gold – or 64% of the stockpile – had departed the U.S. Treasury for European shores never to return.

    In 1971 President Richard Nixon finally decided enough was enough. He closed the so-called gold window, devalued the dollar against gold, and freed the greenback to trade at market prices against other currencies. Fully abrogating the Bretton Woods Agreement, Nixon declared, in one of the more famous quotes of his presidency, “we are all Keynsians now.” The era of global fiat money, with a fiat U.S. dollar as its centerpiece, had begun.

    Had the United States refrained from its defense of the $35 benchmark, it would still own about 75% of the present 29,000 tonne global gold reserve. As it is, Nixon’s revocation of the Bretton Woods architecture set the stage for the modern gold market. You can see the result in the chart immediately below. From it, I can draw three conclusions:

    –– First, we are now in the 46th year of a super-cycle, secular bull market in gold that began in 1971 – a bull market directly tied to the fate of the now fiat U.S. dollar.

    –– Second, the very same conditions which created that bull market are still in place today – nothing has changed fundamentally.

    –– Third, as long as the same cause and effect remain in place, we can assume gold will continue to make sense as a long-term portfolio hedge.

    Some will agree with those conclusions. Some will not. Some are on the learning curve, and it is to that group this piece is largely addressed.

    [​IMG]

    Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs/Nick Laird with thanks

    In the end, it is the times that need to be hedged

    Those who do not agree with those conclusions, it has been my experience, will continue to put their faith in the stock and bond markets and ignore the precious metals. There is no amount of persuasion that will convince them to do otherwise, and to try is pretty much a waste of time. Most importantly, whether they care to acknowledge it or not, they will put their faith ultimately in the federal government and the Federal Reserve.

    Those who do agree will continue to hedge their portfolios with the precious metals, just in case the long history of economic breakdowns beginning with 1971 repeats itself yet again. To this group, the proper diversification is a small price to pay, a matter of practical financial planning that, in these times, provides some much-needed peace of mind. As for an end game to all this, they will keep in mind one of history’s immutable lessons – sometimes the problems become too large for the government and central bank to control.

    For those on the learning curve, a post I made at the USAGOLD blog recently titled “Historical inevitability and gold and silver ownership – In the end it’s the times that need to be hedged” would be an informative follow-up to what you just read, another piece in the puzzle. It got significant play on the wider internet and speaks to the possibilities of an end game from the perspective of Strauss and Howe’s fourth turning.

    One more chart for those who want the complete picture:

    [​IMG]

    Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs/Nick Laird with thanks

    http://www.usagold.com/

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1504725175.php
     
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    Infrastructure of the Shanghai Gold Exchange


    -- Published: Sunday, 10 September 2017


    By BullionStar

    https://www.bullionstar.com/

    Introduction
    The Shanghai Gold Exchange was established in October 2002 by the People’s Bank of Chinahttps://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/chinese-gold-market#heading-5'>[1]http://www.en.sge.com.cn/eng_about_Overview'>[2]. The goal of the Exchange at launch was to become the central hub of the Chinese gold market, a goal which has fully been met.

    Physical gold flows through the Shanghai Gold Exchange in response to Chinese private sector demand (institutional, commercial and retail demand). To facilitate this demand, trading account facilities on the SGE are available to anyone in China, i.e. private citizens can open an SGE trading account and trade gold at the SGE as easily as a wholesale enterprise or a financial institution can.

    The SGE classifies its gold trading activities into a ‘Price Matching’ market, which trades physical and deferred gold contracts, and a ‘Price Inquiry’ (OTC traded) market which offers bilateral spot, forward, swaps and options trading in an OTC ‘Price Inquiry’ environment. The SGE Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark auction, launched in April 2016, is additional to both the above SGE ‘Markets’. The SGE also facilitates gold leasing and pledging activities which are also distinct from its price matching and price inquiry markets.

    Although the SGE has a headquarters ‘Exchange’ building located in the central Huangpu District of Shanghai, all SGE’s trading platforms are electronic. The SGE also employs a central market clearing process to clear all of these products. An extensive network of 61 SGE gold vaults across 35 Chinese cities facilitates the vaulting, delivery, and transfer of gold that flows into and out of the vaults due to SGE trading.

    Contents
    Highlights
    • The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) operates a comprehensive suite of gold trading services both ‘on Exchange’ (Price Matching market) and ‘off Exchange’ (Price Inquiry /OTC market).

    • Contracts on 12 gold products are offered ‘on exchange’ while ‘off exchange’ trading offers contracts in 5 gold products. Transactions from both venues are settled and centrally cleared by the SGE.
    • In April 2016, the SGE launched its twice daily SGE Gold Benchmark Price auction. This auction generates a usable gold reference price.

    • In January 2016, the SGE facilitated the launch of an interbank gold leasing market with official market makers aimed at enhancing Chinese gold market liquidity.
    https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/the-mechanics-of-the-shanghai-international-gold-exchange'>[3]. Given that the SGEI is known as the ‘International Board’, the existing Shanghai Gold Exchange is often referred to as the ‘Main Board’.

    The SGEI offers ‘international’ members access to Renminbi trading of gold on both the Main and International Boards. If trading on the International Board, the associated physical gold is vaulted in the International Board’s certified precious metals vault, located in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. If trading on the Main Board, the associated physical gold can be in any of the domestic SGE vaults, however, International Members are not allowed to load in or load out metal from domestic vaultshttps://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Screen-Shot-2016-12-22-at-4.54.43-pm.png'>[4].

    In addition, the SGEI allows domestic members to trade gold located in the SFTZ but they are, in turn, not allowed to load in or load out metal from the SGEI vault.

    CCTV.com, January 2016 http://english.cntv.cn/2016/01/13/VIDECIyZTNdLnmCfXrduywEf160113.shtml'>[5].

    More than 50% of trading volume in the SGE Price Inquiry segment is traded through the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. In 2016, there were 55 institutional participants in the OTC gold market, 41 of which were small and medium-sized banks. Other participants include securities firms, fund management companies and trust companies. This market also uses 2 introducing brokers which are Tullett Prebon SITICO (China) Ltd, and Shanghai CFETS – ICAP International Money Brokering Co Ltdhttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201704/28/MMbZIzgfDPuMWKwA.pdf'>[6] Reuters also publishes real-time quotes for these SGE OTC gold products.

    In 2016, the ‘Price Inquiry’ market recorded gold trading volumes of more than 8,800 tonnes.

    https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/shanghai-gold-benchmark-price-new-sge-gold-fix/'>[7]http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/resources/file/2016/04/20/32405.pdf'>[8].

    The contract specifications of the auctionhttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201703/24/yPyEmZo2HvDG11IN.docx'>[9] are as follows:

    Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price auction

    Abbreviation: SGE Gold Fix

    Exchange Code: SHAU

    Frequency: Twice per trading day at 10:15 am and 2:15 pm (Shanghai / Beijing Time)

    Platform: SGE’s electronic trading platform

    Auction Model: Centralised Pricing Trading

    Objective: Derivation of a ‘Benchmark Price’ at which supply and demand are in balance

    Unit of Trading: Physically-delivered 1 kg lots of 99.99% purity gold or higher

    Imbalance Tolerance: within 400 kgs

    Quotation: Renminbi (RMB) per gram

    Tick Size: RMB 0.01

    Delivery: 1 kg Standard gold ingots of fineness 999.9 or higher

    Delivery Location: SGE’s certified vaults, i.e. 61 vaults across 35 Chinese cities

    Settlement / Delivery: T + 2

    Clearing: Central Clearing (with SGE acting as counterparty to all buyers and sellers)

    Note: Standard gold is either gold from an SGE approved refinery or gold from a LBMA approved refinery.

    The auction utilizes an opening price known as a ‘Reference Price’ that is calculated from prices entered into the trading system by both ‘Fixing Members’ and ‘Reference Price Members’ during a 5 minute pre-auction window period between 10:09 am – 10:14 am before the morning auction and between 2:09 pm – 2:14 pm before the afternoon auction.

    There are 12 Fixing members in the auction, all of which are banks. These banks include ICBC, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, ANZ, and Standard Chartered. There are 6 Reference Price members in the auction such as gold mining companies (China Gold and Shangdong Gold Group), gold jewellery companies (Shanghai Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook), and gold trading company MKS PAMP.

    Briefly, the auction mechanism is as followshttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201703/24/RGDmtsfPVEzy935O.pdf'>[10]. Fixing members and Reference Price members initially submit reference prices. After establishing the opening price / calculated reference price, SGE member and customer then submit buy and sell orders. There is then at least one round (the first round) and possibly subsequent rounds. As soon as the imbalance between auction supply and demand is less than 400 kgs, the imbalance is shared out among the Fixing members. The price is then balanced and is published by the SGE as the benchmark price.

    Each round includes a ‘market tendering‘ segment and a ‘supplementary tendering‘ session. During the market tendering segment, all auction participants and their clients submit orders. During the supplementary tendering session, Fixing members can submit supplementary orders against the remaining imbalanced quantity. This is done so as to try to speed up the auction and end with an imbalance of less than 400 kgs of gold bars.

    An SGE Surveillance Committee oversees the auction’s functioning. This Committee comprises representatives from the SGE, ICBC, Bank of China, Standard Chartered Bank (China), ANZ Bank (China), China Gold Coin Corporation, Baird Mint, the China Gold Association, and the World Gold Council and has a remit of monitoring trading, clearing, delivery, in terms of the SGE Benchmark’s trading and compliance rules.

    Daily, monthly and annual prices for the ‘Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price’ and associated charts of this data are viewable on the SGE Benchmark web page on the SGE websitehttp://www.en.sge.com.cn/data_BenchmarkPrice'>[11].

    Since it was launched in April 2016, nearly 600 tonnes of gold have been traded through the SGE Gold benchmark auction, with 284.5 tonnes traded during 2016, and a further 302.6 tonnes traded during the first seven months of 2017http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201707/04/VGPtuzaznTIWONZ0.pdf'>[12]http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201708/02/X7oGq02Qt18dy9b8.pdf'>[13].

    https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/in-china-everyone-can-buy-gold-at-the-sge/'>[14]. Users of Yijintong first open an SGE account online and then execute SGE gold transactions online. In SGE documents in English, Yijintong is sometimes known as the ‘SGE Gold App’.

    ^ “Chinese Gold Market”, People’s Bank of China https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/chinese-gold-market#heading-5

    ^ SGE Overview, Shanghai Gold Exchange website http://www.en.sge.com.cn/eng_about_Overview

    ^ “Mechanics of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange” https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/the-mechanics-of-the-shanghai-international-gold-exchange

    ^ Chart of Vaulting scenarios for Main and International Boards cros-referenced with Domestic and International Members, Koos Jansen, BullionStar https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Screen-Shot-2016-12-22-at-4.54.43-pm.png

    ^ “China launches interbank gold trading system”, CCTV.com, January 2016 http://english.cntv.cn/2016/01/13/VIDECIyZTNdLnmCfXrduywEf160113.shtml

    ^ SGE Annual Report, 2016 http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201704/28/MMbZIzgfDPuMWKwA.pdf

    ^ “Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price – New Kid on the Block”, BullionStar, April 2016 https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/shanghai-gold-benchmark-price-new-sge-gold-fix/

    ^ “SGE Gold Fix White Paper, SGE website http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/resources/file/2016/04/20/32405.pdf

    ^ “Contract Specifications for Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price Trading”, Word Document, SGE website, http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201703/24/yPyEmZo2HvDG11IN.docx

    ^ “Trading Rules of the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price auction”, May 2016, SGE website http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201703/24/RGDmtsfPVEzy935O.pdf

    ^ SGE Gold Benchmark Price data page, SGE website http://www.en.sge.com.cn/data_BenchmarkPrice

    ^ SGE Trading Data Highlights report, December 2016 http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201707/04/VGPtuzaznTIWONZ0.pdf

    ^ SGE Trading Data Highlights report, December 2017 http://www.en.sge.com.cn/upload/file/201708/02/X7oGq02Qt18dy9b8.pdf

    ^ “In China Everyone Can Buy Gold At The SGE”, BullionStar, January 2016 https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/in-china-everyone-can-buy-gold-at-the-sge/

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    LARGEST GOLD MINES of NEVADA !!! The Comstock Lode. ask Jeff Williams
    Ask Jeff Williams



    Published on Sep 15, 2017
    Let's take a look at the mines that put Nevada on the map. The Mighty Comstock Lode. Plus we will be giving away another metal detector at the end of the month. https://www.patreon.com/askJeffWilliams
     
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    Diwali, Lord Rama, and the Return of Gold from Exile


    Published: Tuesday, 19 September 2017

    By Jp Cortez


    October 19, 2017 marks an important holiday in the Indian culture. Diwali begins.


    Diwali is one of the biggest festivals for Hindus, Sikhs, and Jains. It is a lavish celebration of the victory of light over darkness with its gleaming candles, luxurious works of art, and opulent feasts. Diwali is also characterized by gift giving. Buying and gifting gold is considered auspicious during Diwali.

    Given the nature of the holiday and the number of people who celebrate it, according to CNBC, the past few years have seen a tendency for the gold price to rise around Diwali. Last year during Diwali, Mihir Kapadia, founder & CEO of Sun Global Investments, said “As heavy consumers, the festive seasons always tend to surge the demand, and considering the current low prices, this should increase the market activity and thus push the prices a little.” Kapadia continued, “We do not expect it to boost prices significantly as the overall market is subdued due to the worries about rising interest rates.”

    There is no shortage of economic analysis during the buildup to this year’s celebration as The Economic Times reported “bullion has climbed almost 10 percent on the Indian market this year as world prices increased on… reduced chances of a further hike in U.S. interest rates in 2017.”

    However, history shows that rising interest rates do not necessarily make bonds and cash more attractive or push the demand for (and therefore the price) gold down. Interest rate hikes are usually a gold bullish event.

    “Gold prices going down after rate hikes is a myth propagated by the financial establishment and portfolio managers who may be intellectually lazy or have a vested interest in scaring people away from gold,” says Stefan Gleason, president of U.S. precious metals dealer Money Metals Exchange. "In reality, central banks are almost always behind the curve, and real interest rates may be going in the opposite direction despite the rate hikes."

    Slaying the Beast Takes Multiple Blows

    Diwali is a grand, extravagant multi-day festival celebrating many things by many different groups of people. One of the more popular tales remembered and celebrated during Diwali is that of the brave Lord Rama. According to legend, he returned from exile after having saved his kidnapped wife and slayed the evil demon Ravanna.

    This tale of glory and triumph evokes the sound money camp’s monetary hero, gold, facing the evil government and its minions, the “professionals” who often have a cynical bias against the yellow metal.

    In the grand battle, Rama fights fiercely against Ravanna and his footmen. After a long and taxing battle, Rama delivers a blow that decapitates Ravanna’s central head. Unfortunately, another head appears in its place. Finally learning that Ravanna’s secret was an immortality nectar held in his stomach, Rama fired an arrow that finally laid Ravanna to rest.

    Like Rama, gold finds itself fending off attacks from all sides. The federal government has been striking blows at gold since 1933, when Roosevelt banned all private possession of gold and required it be handed over in exchange for paper money. Gold has had all sorts of taxes levied against it. Gold and silver coins were stripped of their constitutional role as the only forms of money states could recognize as legal tender in payment of debts. Today, countless Wall Street types make a living trying to pierce the armor of gold in print and on television.

    Fear not! It’s true that sound money’s lionhearted soldier hasn’t launched the fatal arrow that finally slays the fiat money system run by the world’s central bankers. But the battle is tipping further in the direction of our fearless hero every day.

    States are taking the necessary steps to unshackle gold from its bureaucratic chains. 36 states across the union have an exemption against sales taxes being levied in precious metals purchases. Arizona has moved towards widespread acceptance of gold and silver by recognizing its legal tender status while removing capital gains taxes on precious metals holdings, with Wyoming, Idaho, and Tennessee not far behind. Texas is setting an example on how to shore up pension funds using gold, not to mention creating its own bullion depository.

    Step by step, hard money forces are making advances. They still have a long way to go, of course. But they can draw inspiration from previous epic struggles against powerful foes.

    During Diwali, millions of people around the world will celebrate the victory of their courageous and valiant hero, Lord Rama. Meanwhile, we can all celebrate gold’s continued ability to not only survive the onslaught coming from gold-cynics everywhere, but also to steadily re-establish itself as constitutional money.

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    Wealth In Gold Motivation
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 20, 2017
    Junius Maltby channel motivational examination and dialogue on a historical and stable wealth preservation vehicle. Welcome to the conversation.
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    3 Pounds Of Viking GOLD Treasure Found!!
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Sep 21, 2017
     

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