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America the Beautiful 5 oz Silver Bullion Coins

Discussion in 'PM's - Coins - Numis - Base Metals' started by JayDubya, Jun 20, 2010.



  1. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    That would be true if these were really just a bullion play as they were intended. "Bullion" prices of the earlier 2015 pucks range from $130-160 so there is an added issue involved. The Homestead puck has gone up around 50% this year which is a tad above what generic silver did....
     
  2. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    ATB bullion puck = A bullion coin with a semi-numismatic potential given the relatively low mintages (compared to SAE's for example)????

    Just a WAG since they seem to that is what appears to be happening with some of those ATB bullion pucks.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2015
  3. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Here is how I see it...

    In the last two years, silver has been trending downward. During that same period, ATB numismatic value (the non-bullion part of ATBs) has been trending upward.

    The combination of those two factors is the trend of the ATB coins.

    If you bet on silver prices alone, what is your risk-versus-reward, given the two trends? Silver prices have been a roller coaster, and who knows whether they will go up or down.

    ATB numismatic premiums, however, seem to have a behavior on their own. We saw them pretty down one-and-a-half years ago. Just look at the 2012 El Yunque and Chaco Culture coins. The price history of those two coins can give us a pretty good benchmark for the entire series. At the moment, El Yunque has the upper hand over Chaco Culture, despite the close mintages. We can expect similar disparities between popular/non-popular coins elsewhere, but the common denominator that we see with these two coins (and many other ATBs) is that the trend is clearly upward. Even taking the decline in silver value recently into account, ATB collector value has decidedly overcome that decline, for the coins with good popularity and/or low mintages.

    Another thing to note is that popularity in some coins may take years to develop, like it did with El Yunque, and also Great Smoky Mountains (from 2014). At one point, I regretted buying a roll of Great Smoky Mountains instead of Mount Rushmore, but I no longer regret that decision, looking at current premiums.
     
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  4. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Like many others who were closely watching ATBs two years ago, I do regret buying generic bullion instead of ATBs during the time when new ATB premiums were very low.

    Good thing that I realized my mistake last year and changed course, buying a roll of Great Smoky Mountains instead of generic rounds.
     
  5. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    I ended up with a tube of Arches and five tubes of Sand Dunes from last year. The main reason I bought generics over ATB's is liquidity. I have quite a few bullion ATB's stored now and the only way to truly get the full value is selling on eBay. I just don't want to be stuck moving a bunch of coins through eBay and dealing with packing and all that crap. I will sell what I have through there when the times right, just don't wan stuck with too many. Generics I can move with one or two local dealers for spot no problem. ATB's I'm lucky to get a buck over.
     
  6. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Looks like you are way ahead of me in the ATB race!

    I am now at the point where it's time to "move" some of the generic bullion in my reserves, but I just can't find a dealer or coin shop who offers fair prices for generic bullion (over here, the dealers tend to offer $1-$2 under spot for generic bullion), so I have not sold any generic bullion yet.
     
  7. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If MCM becomes the low price leader in the near future, I may reconsider my preference of using credit card vs. check for 10-coin roll purchases. Unlike the other big vendors, MCM provides only a 2.95% discount for check purchases (for the others, it's 4%). Even with the smaller check discount of MCM, though, the final credit card price might still be lower than the check price of other vendors (but they need this price advantage in order to compete with the stronger customer base of the other vendors).

    There are some credit cards that provide 2% cash back on all purchases, and new credit cards often provide even bigger cash back bonuses for the first few months of purchases.

    At the moment, MCM is offering a 10-coin roll of Saratoga for $991.50 with credit card, versus $962.25 with check. The 2% cash back of the credit card effectively reduces the cost of the credit card purchase to $971.67, which is still higher than the check price by $9.42. But that $9.42 of extra money is paid instead of the postage, longer wait, and anxiety (that your check does not arrive within the allowed time of 5 days) for sending the check by mail (and it's probably less than the bank wire transfer fee).

    With a new credit card still within the extra bonus period, the bonus will be even bigger, and it's a no-brainer for the credit card purchase (at least with this size of purchases). In any case, I'm going try a small purchase with MCM first, just to try them out (it's a 1962 proof set, by the way), and with their free shipping it's an easy purchase.
     
  8. jcz1

    jcz1 Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Please keep in mind that MCM makes its living by selling graded coins. When you buy raw coins from them, the likelihood is high that you are getting grading rejects. Remember, they are right next to NGC.

    They are also part of the same company that owns GovMint, so Minnesota customers now also pay more from MCM.
     
  9. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    I've managed to find two dealers near me and a private buyer that pays spot too. Now finding someone locally that offers a fair price for semi numismatics and Eagles is another story. Best locally is a buck over for Eagles. This is why I'm sticking with the cheap stuff right now.
     
  10. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    MCM actually charges more for a roll of 10 than they do for 10 singles. Why? No clue but I would think it's because the roll is intact as received from the Mint....and....either way, unless you are getting your bullion graded then what difference does it make?

    Also, I am in no rush to get my product so the point of paying more for using a CC just doesn't cut it....especially on a pre-sale that doesn't ship for at least 2 weeks which is plenty of time for the check to arrive and clear.
     
  11. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Agree on the point of the rolls.

    On the check payment to MCM, though, if you read their fine print, they require the check to be received within 5 business days...that is the hard part for me. Especially with the condition that they may take your 5% deposit if they don't get the check within 5 business days.

    But like I mentioned earlier, the credit card option much closer in price if you take the cash back bonus of the credit card (typically 2%) into account.
     
  12. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Just about All companies that sell precious metals and accept personal checks require the check to be delivered within 5 business days which is reasonable.

    For something that I want and is available immediately then the CC payment with cashback makes sense. Math is your friend.....APMEX discount is around 4% for check payment but their prices are higher...

    I have used both methods with no issues from either....
     
  13. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  14. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    According to this link, the combined mintage for bullion and uncirculated coins will be 65,000. The uncirculated mintage limit will initially be 30,000, but the actual number will probably be around 20,000 or 25,000. If it is 25,000, then the mintage limit for bullion will be 40,000.

    http://mintnewsblog.com/2015/11/a-look-at-saratoga-national-historical-park-5-oz-silver-coins/
     
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  15. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    Thanks for that Starter. Given that information that you just gave me, I had to rethink my analysis on the mintages regarding the Saratoga puck. As a result, here is what I think the possible mintage breakdown Bullion/P combos could be for Saratoga:


    1. 40,000 bullion/25,000 "P" (not likely this combo will happen because of current demand for the bullion version)

    2. 45,000 bullion/20,000 "P" (most likely scenario)

    3. 50,000 bullion/15,000 "P" (still possible depending on if Saratoga presale is very strong)

    4. 55,000 bullion/10,000 "P" (not very likely this combo will happen unless they increased the combined mintage)

    The above combined mintages are just WAG's on my part. You could always have a odd bullion puck mintage of, for example, 42,000 which would put the max P mintage at 23,000. I do not see a bullion puck mintage of less than 40,000 occurring at this time. I think that 45,000 bullion mintage will occur for the Saratoga puck. That is my take on the Saratoga puck mintage.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2015
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  16. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    APMEX is having a Cyber Monday sale for Saratoga (just today, apparently).

    The price is $95.90 (check) / $99.74 (credit card), at the moment (but MintDirect is not on sale, however).

    On second thought, the "Cyber Monday" designation for this product may actually be an excuse to raise prices after the sale is over...regardless, this is a good price at the moment, for quantities less than 10 (even compared to MCM). And considering that APMEX puts the coins in capsules (not envelopes), it is a very reasonable price.

    Looking at the good prospects for next year (in particular, Theodore Roosevelt), I may just take this option of buying fewer coins this time.

    Edit:
    I decided to order 3 more Saratoga coins from APMEX today, in addition to the 1 coin I ordered the other day.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2015
  17. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    I was way off the mark on the mintage for the ATB Saratoga bullion. The mintage, according to the below link, was 35,800. I saw this figure here:

    http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&type=bullion

    So with a combined mintage of 65K, then the max. mintage for the Saratoga "P" should be at 29,200 since the bullion Saratoga is at 35,800. Based on the current price of the Bombay "P" on the U.S. Mint website, then the Saratoga "P" will probably be priced the same as the Bombay "P" ($149.95 + shipping). Based on this, I do not see the Saratoga "P" reaching the max. mintage of 29,200 at $149.95 with spot at $14.
     
  18. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    If you didn't use shark100 yet, you get 1/2 ounce australian shark when over $100. I bought 2 Saratogas
     
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  19. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I believe there will be more to come in the weeks ahead.

    I have also used that website to check mintage numbers, and I have found that for issues still being minted, the numbers continue to grow until they stop being minted. Keep in mind that the other 2015 coins have already reached their mintage limit, but the Saratoga will still be minted until it hits the mintage limit, whatever that number finally becomes.

    This was especially the case for the 2011 coins, which did not have a mintage limit and therefore saw some mintage numbers go far higher than they were in 2011 to 2013 (I believe the 2011 coins finally stopped being minted in 2014).
     
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  20. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    Thanks for explaining that. I jumped the gun thinking that the 35,800 mintage for the Saratoga bullion puck was the final number but now that I think about it, Saratoga is still in presale at the moment. With that said and this being a WAG on my part, I am still thinking that the final mintage will be between 45,000 - 50,000 for the Saratoga bullion puck.
     
  21. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I believe the bullion Saratoga went on sale to authorized purchasers from the mint today. Look for the 35,800 number to be revised upward. I think the 65,000 combined mintage for Saratoga may become a supply bottleneck as I believe there will be relatively strong demand for this issue.
     
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  22. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    Perhaps an increased combined mintage for the 2016 pucks especially if spot continues to go down and demand for SAE's and other forms of physical silver continues to go up.
     
  23. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Good find on the shark.

    For that reason, I bought one more Saratoga just for the shark, bringing my Saratoga count to 5.


    Looking forward to the Theodore Roosevelt coin for next year...
     
  24. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I believe they may look at doing this gradually. If spot continues to decline, bullion coins will likely increase in popularity, while the 'P' pucks may decrease, unless they lower the price down from the current $149. If spot moves up we may see the 'P' increase in popularity as the gap in cost vs metal content closes, provided they don't change the price of the 'P' at the mint. Either way total demand should go up.

    Overall I feel like the series is starting to gain some traction. One would think it would be in the mint's best interest to respond to demand.
     
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  25. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Re; the $149 P puck price...the Homestead P puck (still on sale) is selling for less than the bullion Homestead puck.

    .....just an observation
     
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  26. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    I know that it is APMEX but to prove your point.......................

    APMEX price for Homestead Bullion: $156.45 (Quantity 1-9; Check/Wire price)

    Homestead "P" price on U.S. Mint website: $149.95 listed price on the website

    Eventually, APMEX will lower that Homestead bullion price since they are probably not moving any at the current price they are selling it for.
     
  27. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    ^^^^^^

    Speaking of APMEX, I noticed that they pushed the shipping date back on the Saratoga bullion puck. It was 12-9-2015 but now it is pushed back to 12-16-2015. Just an observation on my part.
     
  28. b_cahill

    b_cahill Seeker Seeker

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    Apmex is still charging way more than the mint for the Jacqueline Kennedy UNC first spouse coin, and they have been for over a month:

    Apmex (CC): $973.18
    Mint: $720

    I sincerely hope that they are not moving any of those!
     
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  29. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Point was that for some issues the still available P pucks are not really over priced compared to their bullion brothers.

    Provident is selling the Kisatchie bullion puck for $162.68 (CC price (1-9) for comparison since most Mint orders are placed that way but $156.17 by check). The P brother is still available for $149.95 from the Mint
     
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  30. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I think these prices are partly due to the still unknown mintage totals for the P coins. Whereas all 2015 bullion issues except Saratoga have already reached their mintage limits, a few P issues of 2015 are still being minted, leaving their final mintage numbers still in doubt. And the Mint needs to produce sales, so it would be unreasonable to increase prices on the P coins.

    True, there is no way the mintages of the P coins will come near those of the bullion, but the collector base of the bullion coins is different from that of the P coins. Most collectors interested in the bullion coins would have bought them earlier, before premiums went up. The high-priced bullion coins are offered for those who were unlucky to miss out on the low pricing of the early months of sales. There always will be collectors who plan on buying new issues of the bullion coins, in order to benefit from the low pricing.

    After the dust settles and collectors examine their inventory of bullion coins, I would reckon that most of them were bought at the low pricing of the early months of sales, with just a small percentage being bought at the inflated premiums that come during later months. Personally, I am one of those collectors who look forward to future issues and plan to buy more coins of certain issues (at the early prices, of course).

    At this point of the year, collectors with extra cash need to weigh their options of buying previous bullion issues (generally expensive), current P issues (fairly priced), or current/future bullion issues (hopefully bargain priced). At the moment, I am banking on the last option. Looking at the 2016 issues, the Theodore Roosevelt coin looks promising. For this reason, I decided to by 5 Saratoga coins, instead of 10.
     
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  31. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Saratoga bullion already sold out to the AP's at 45,000.....
     
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  32. b_cahill

    b_cahill Seeker Seeker

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    I agree 100%. My point was that Apmex (and other dealers) has pricing that is out of whack for other coins, as well. Some more obvious than others. IMHO, most (but not all) of the "P" pucks are more attractive buys than the corresponding bullion pucks.
     
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  33. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Amazing. That took about 48 hours to occur. Wonder at what point the mint is going realize that the ATB bullion is going in popularity?
     
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  34. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    The 45,000 mintage for the Saratoga bullion ended up being the final "most likely scenario" mintage (based on my above quoted post). That just means a max mintage of 20,000 for the Saratoga "P".
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2015
  35. Silvertoothtiger

    Silvertoothtiger Seeker Seeker

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    Popular silver sells out in no time
     
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  36. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    The US govt is very slow so it might take a while for them to realize that. I will be positive and say that maybe they will realize the popularity of the ATB bullion in 2021 (when last bullion puck to be released).
     
  37. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    Popular silver with an initial but brief low presale premium...............
     
  38. Foxwoods Man

    Foxwoods Man Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Yes, it is "sold out" but that just means all inventory is now in the hands of the sellers that you normally buy them from. Kind of odd that a "sold out" product it is available everywhere...Bombay Hook "sold out" in a day and is still widely available at a slight premium over pre-sale Saratoga....so maybe "product has all been distributed" is more appropriate
     
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  39. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Good point. Gainesville selling them for 'as low' as $4.49 over. The distributers are making good money on these it appears. The question is how hard the public is going to go in.
     
  40. pay dirt

    pay dirt Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Cheap silver price is helping with these. More people able to afford them, then they get popular and start collecting.
     
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