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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-27-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Mutual funds will be allowed to trade in the Indian commodity markets in the next six months. This is a sign of the maturity of Indian commodity markets. Indian commodity markets started in 2003 and has overcome a number of hurdles to get at par with developed nations. Options are being gradually started in metals and will slowly move onto to other commodities. Fading trading volumes due to demonetization and bucketing are a thing of the past now. Volumes will now zoom in all commodities trading in India.
     
  2. searcher

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  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  4. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Jeremy Corbyn calls for new ROBOT TAX on firms who replace workers with new technology
    • Corbyn will use keynote speech to call for benefits of robotics to be shared
    • Labour would also pay for free college to train workers whose jobs are replaced
    • Corbyn's address will also lay blame for Grenfell on the Tories and New Labour


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4923570/Jeremy-Corbyn-calls-new-ROBOT-TAX-firms.html#ixzz4ttLLqumJ
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
  5. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Why Consumers Pay the Price for Hurricane Fuel Shortages

    September 26, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    The U.S.-flagged Jones Act tanker MT West Virginia. Photo: Crowley Maritime Corp.

    By Devika Krishna Kumar and Libby George NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) – Just days after Hurricane Harvey smacked Texas and hobbled a quarter of U.S. refining industry, the supply networks that fuel the nation’s cars, trucks and airplanes began to fail.

    On paper, there was no fuel shortage. The United States had more than 200 million barrels of gasoline in giant steel tanks scattered across the nation – enough to last more than three weeks.

    But the fuel was unavailable to prevent shortages for two reasons: most of it is not owned or managed by the government, sitting instead in commercial facilities, and it is stored far away from where it was needed.

    Consumers paid the price as gasoline spiked ahead of Harvey’s arrival and jumped again after the storm as the extent of the disruption to Texas refiners became apparent.

    Prices surged even higher when Hurricane Irma hit Florida, which relies on Gulf Coast supply.

    That left Florida residents scrambling for fuel in one of the largest evacuations in history. Thousands of stations closed, driving high prices and long lines those remaining open. The supply chain breakdown caused delays and expense at the worst possible time for families fleeing the storm.

    The shortages were felt nationally – with an average gas price spike of 10 percent – and internationally, as countries dependent on U.S. exports had to find replacement supplies.

    When Harvey shut pipelines and ports that transport millions of barrels of fuel nationwide from the Gulf, it left major cities with only a few days’ supply of fuel.

    Pipelines started closing five days after Harvey hit, with nothing to pump through key fuel conduits from Texas to New York, Philadelphia and Chicago.

    “It proves to you how vulnerable the country is to the pipelines,” said Dennis Curtis who runs Curtis Oil, a fuel distributor in the Carolinas. “When they go down, it’s a ripple effect all the way to New Jersey.”

    The storm’s disruption to domestic and global fuel supplies led the International Energy Agency, the watchdog for energy security in industrialized nations, to call for a review of the way the U.S. government plans for emergencies.

    A boom in U.S. fuel production has also made refineries here big suppliers to Latin America and Europe.

    “The rise of the Gulf Coast as a major energy hub means that … normal operations are too important to fail,” the IEA said in a report earlier this month.

    UNSTRATEGIC STOCKS
    Most of the 216 million barrels of gasoline in storage in the United States is owned by refiners, traders and fuel distributors.

    The stockpiles sit where holding them makes commercial sense to the firms that own them – and not where it might best help consumers during emergencies.

    Oil firms try to limit storage to hold down costs, and the fuel that is stored often sits at refineries because the firms already own the land and the necessary permits.

    That meant Harvey flooded many storage facilities when it hit Texas refineries, cutting them off from the pipeline network.

    Another oil stockpile – U.S. government-owned crude, held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – is less useful for emergency supply shortages because crude needs refining.

    When the SPR was established in 1975, the government’s biggest concern was potential disruption of imports of Middle East crude, not post-storm fuel shortages.

    After Harvey, some refineries requested crude from the SPR, which currently hold 675 million barrels. The Department of Energy (DOE) granted exchanges of more than 5 million barrels to keep refineries that were not flooded up and running, Energy Secretary Rick Perry said. FACTBOX:

    The DOE also temporarily waived the Jones Act, a century-old law that limits coastal shipping of oil products to only U.S. flagged ships. Note: The temporary waiver expired September 22 without a single request for a foreign-flagged tanker.

    TRUMP, CONGRESS AIM TO SELL STOCKPILES
    The disruption that Hurricane Sandy caused New York and the Northeast in 2012 led to the establishment of the country’s only government-owned fuel reserve.

    But it holds only 1 million barrels – or about enough for one U.S. rush hour morning – and is located in Massachusetts, New York and Maine. None of the fuel was released during Harvey or Irma.

    After Sandy, the Department of Energy (DoE) debated where else to put reserves in the country and targeted the Southeast, which has no refineries. But the administration decided against it because it could not find affordable storage facilities to rent, said Christopher Smith, a DOE assistant secretary under former president Barack Obama.

    Now, even the small Northeast stockpile may disappear: The Trump administration in May proposed selling its gasoline to help balance its proposed 2018 budget.

    Trump’s budget also proposed selling half of the crude in the SPR. His plan has little support in Congress, but lawmakers have previously approved selling smaller amounts from the SPR to raise money for various other priorities.

    The Department of Energy, which coordinates the government response to shortages, did not respond to a request for comment about gasoline supplies after the storms.

    A SLOW MARKET RESPONSE
    The lack of sufficient government fuel stockpiles leaves consumers to the whims of global fuel markets after storms. And that can take time.

    When fuel prices spiked in shortage areas after the recent hurricanes, cargoes of gasoline and jet fuel were shipped from Europe and Asia to the United States. Fuel distributors trucked and shipped gasoline and diesel in from other parts of the country to areas of shortage.

    But the interim period was tough on consumers – even those as far from the storms as Chicago, where wholesale gasoline prices jumped about 25 cents a gallon, or 10 percent.

    That’s because fuel terminals stopped sales to some distributors after the Explorer Pipeline shut on Aug. 29, just five days after Harvey hit. The line pumps fuel from Texas to Chicago.

    Chronister Oil Co in Illinois, which supplies a convenience store and gas station chain in that state, had to reroute trucks to find fuel after its regular terminals refused to sell it, he said.

    “There were incredible amounts of fear and uncertainty,” said Bryce Rawers, Chronister’s director of fuel supply.

    Supply shortages hit consumers in other cities from Dallas to Nashville and Atlanta.

    The biggest pump price shocks after both storms came in the southeastern states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, according to U.S government data.

    Those four states have no refineries and few pipelines.

    The market “is capable of taking care of everyone,” said Angela Holland, president of the Georgia Association of Convenience Stores. “Just not today.”

    (Additional reporting by Timothy Gardner in Washington; Editing by Simon Webb and Brian Thevenot)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/why-consumers-pay-the-price-for-hurricane-fuel-shortages/
     
  6. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Crowley: On-Island Distribution is Key to Getting Relief Supplies to Puerto Rico Residents

    September 26, 2017 by gCaptain

    [​IMG]
    File photo: A Crowley container barge from the U.S. mainland arrives in Puerto Rico. Photo: Crowley

    The key to getting relief supplies to citizens of Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria will be by expediting local transportation and distribution of cargo, according to executives at Crowley Puerto Rico Services, which currently has more than 3,000 loads of food, supplies and other cargo on its terminal in San Juan.

    Crowley’s statement comes as the U.S. Department of Homeland Security denied a proposed request to suspend Jones Act regulations applying to Puerto Rico for a period of one year.

    Jacksonville-based Crowley is one of two main ocean carriers currently serving the Jones Act Puerto Rico trade with scheduled weekly service with containerships and container barges. Cargo and fuel is also imported to the island on foreign ships.

    Since Maria hit, Crowley has taken bookings for more than 2,700 container loads of relief cargo to be delivered to Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and St. Croix, many of which have been delivered, are in transport, or will be readied for transport in the coming days.

    “We want to get goods to people as quickly and efficiently as possible, and to do that we need our customers to work with their truckers to take delivery of their cargo,” said Jose Ayala, Vice President of Crowley’s Puerto Rico services. “Once that begins to happen with greater frequency, we will need customers to unload and return empty containers so that we can bring more cargo to the island, which is suffering and in great need of life’s necessities.”

    To handle the influx of cargo, Crowley’s says its logistics group has secured additional warehouse space in Puerto Rico and today it dispatched 50 relief trucks to deliver relief supplies to distribution centers around the island. The containers will be unloaded immediately and returned to Crowley for use in bringing more supplies to residents.

    Crowley says it has also secured additional Jones Act-qualified vessels to handle government and commercial cargo to the island.

    “Five new container deck barges with a combined capacity of more than 3,800 20-foot equivalent containers (TEUs) have been placed into service along with accompanying tugboats to tow them. They, along with Crowley’s existing vessel fleet, will operate continuously without a set schedule to get as much cargo to the island as quickly as possible and as many empty containers out of the island so that they can be returned with full loads.

    Much of the relief cargo is being funneled through Jacksonville, where the company’s logistics unit is taking cargo out of over-the-road trailers and transferring it to ocean containers prior to being loaded on a vessel.

    The Marine Merchant Act of 1920, aka the Jones Act, requires that all goods shipped between ports of the United States be carried by vessels built in the United States and owned and operated by American citizens. Still, about two-thirds of Puerto Rico’s imported cargo and nearly all of its oil and gas imports arrive via foreign ships from places outside the United States.

    Filed Under: Maritime News, NewsTagged With: Jones Act

    http://gcaptain.com/crowley-on-isla...ing-relief-supplies-to-puerto-rico-residents/
     
  7. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    U.S. Denies Request for Puerto Rico Jones Act Waiver as Senator McCain Applies Even More Pressure

    September 26, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    File Photo: A Jones Act container barge operating between Jacksonville, Florida and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Photo credit: Crowley Maritime Corporation


    By Timothy Gardner WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) – The Trump administration on Tuesday denied a request to waive shipping restrictions to help get fuel and supplies to storm-ravaged Puerto Rico, saying it would do nothing to address the island’s main impediment to shipping, damaged ports.

    The Jones Act limits shipping between coasts to U.S. flagged vessels. However, in the wake of brutal storms, the government has occasionally issued temporary waivers to allow the use of cheaper, tax free or more readily available foreign-flagged ships.

    The Department of Homeland Security, which waived the act after hurricanes Harvey and Irma, did not agree an exemption would help this time.

    On Monday, U.S. Representative Nydia Velázquez and seven other representatives asked Elaine Duke, acting head of Homeland Security, to waive the nearly 100-year-old shipping law for a year to help Puerto Rico recover from Hurricane Maria.

    Gregory Moore, a spokesman for Customs and Border Protection, an office of Homeland Security, said in a statement that an assessment by the agency showed there was “sufficient capacity” of U.S.-flagged vessels to move commodities to Puerto Rico.

    “The limitation is going to be port capacity to offload and transit, not vessel availability,” Moore said.

    Related: Jones Act Carrier Says On-Island Distribution is Key to Getting Relief Supplies to Puerto Rico Residents

    Puerto Rico has long railed against the Jones Act, saying it makes the cost of imported basic commodities, such as food, clothing and fuel, more expensive.

    After Homeland’s denial, Senator John McCain, a Republican and a long time opponent of the Jones Act, sent a letter to Duke asking why the department decided against the waiver. He asked the department to detail the costs of shipping goods from Florida to Puerto Rico versus the costs of shipping from Florida to the Virgin Islands, which has a permanent Jones Act exemption.

    “It is unacceptable to force the people of Puerto Rico to pay at least twice as much for food, clean drinking water, supplies and infrastructure due to Jones Act requirements as they work to recover from this disaster,” McCain said in the letter, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.

    The administration’s rationale for a waiver after Harvey and Irma hit Texas, Louisiana and Florida was to ease movement of fuel to places along the U.S. East Coast and make up for temporary outages of high-capacity pipelines.

    “The situation in Puerto Rico is much different,” Moore said in the statement, adding that most of the humanitarian effort would be carried out with barges, which make up a large portion of the U.S. flagged cargo fleet. Homeland did not immediately return a request for comment on the McCain letter.

    Backers of a Jones Act waiver for Puerto Rico said it would help the relief effort.

    “Our dependence on fossil fuel imports by sea is hampering the restoration of services,” said Juan Declet-Barreto, an energy expert at the nonprofit group the Union of Concerned Scientists. The refusal to allow the waiver “is raising fears on the island that they are going to be left behind in this disaster.”

    The United States shipped an average of nearly 770,000 barrels of crude oil and oil products like gasoline and diesel annually to Puerto Rico from 2012 to 2016.

    Supporters of the Jones Act, including ship builders, have said it supports American jobs, including ones in Puerto Rico and keeps shipping routes reliable. (Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Valerie Volcovici; editing by Toni Reinhold and Cynthia Osterman)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/u-s-denies-request-for-puerto-rico-shipping-waiver/
     
  8. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Again
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold fell $13.20 to $1282.70 in early New York trade before it bounced back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 0.93%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.679 and ended with a loss of 0.53%.
     
  9. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Global Bond Rout Accelerates Even As Dollar Rally Fizzles

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 28, 2017 6:56 AM

    In a continuation of trading patterns observed over the previous two days, on Thursday the global bond rout deepened in the aftermath of the release of President Trump’s tax-cut plan, Janet Yellen's recent hawkish comments and renewed optimism over the health of the U.S. economy. While global stocks were mostly mixed as investors tried to assess the implications of the much-anticipated tax proposal, there was less doubt in the bond market, where 10Y Treasurys tumbled as a result of heavy stop loss selling once the 200-DMA (2.3255%) was taken out, sending yields to three month highs around 2.35% as accelerating selling spread to all global rate products.

    [​IMG]

    Bund futures slid from the open, with yield curves steepening as 10y yield briefly breached 0.5% for the first time since early August amid a surge in volume after the Treasury sell-off gained momentum in Asian hours.


    [​IMG]

    “The market had given up on the Trump reflation trade and this is coming back with a bit more detail on tax plans,” said Commerzbank analyst Rainer Guntermann. “At the same time, this gives the Fed more ammunition to hike rates in the coming months.” Trump’s tax plan offered to lower corporate income tax rates, cut taxes for small businesses and reduce the top income tax rate for individuals.

    Also helping to boost the dollar, the plan included lower one-time low tax rates for companies to repatriate profits accumulated overseas, which analysts say would lead to a temporary phase of sizable dollar buying. At the same time, others said it could be an uphill battle to get the changes approved. “It is hard to expect this proposal to pass the Congress smoothly.” Takafumi Yamawaki, chief fixed income strategist at J.P. Morgan Securities. “We have to pay attention to how the Republicans will view this,” he added “It is possible that the net fiscal spending will be smaller than what the stock markets expect.”

    Meanwhile, after rising early in the session to a six-week high, the US dollar pared gains as the euro rose with German regional inflation data pointing to continued potential overheating. That offered some support to Treasuries, after a slide in Asian hours as a global selloff in core bonds continued.
    • German Hesse State CPI YY (Sep) 2.1% (Prev. 1.8%)
    • German Hesse State CPI MM (Sep) 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%)
    • German Brandenburg State CPI YY (Sep) 1.6% (Prev. 1.8%)
    • German Brandenburg State CPI MM (Sep) 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
    • German Saxony State CPI YY (Sep) 2.0% (Prev. 1.9%)
    • German Saxony State CPI MM (Sep) 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
    • German Bavaria State CPI YY (Sep) 1.8% (Prev. 1.8%)
    • German Bavaria State CPI MM (Sep) 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
    • German NRW State CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
    • German NRW State CPI YY (Sep) 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%)
    US futures were little changed, with European stocks were steady holding onto recent gains as rising banks balanced retailers, while Asian stocks were mixed, generally lower except Japan where the latest Yen weakness sent local stocks up 0.5%. Gold touched the lowest in a month.

    In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell less than 0.01% as publication time. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed less than 0.05 percent, while Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.3 percent to the highest in more than 12 weeks. Banks rose to fresh seven week highs, though that was partly offset as miners struggled and as underwhelming results from one of Europe’s biggest fashion chains, H&M, weighed on retailers, while weakness in Chinese commodity markets continued overnight. Financials began where they left off yesterday and behave as one of the outperforming sectors in the Stoxx 600. And despite the positive open some EU markets lost early gains, as a fall among basic resources and the more defensive, consumer and health sectors weigh.

    Emerging markets were the big losers from the surging dollar and as Treasury yield spike higher. MSCI’s emerging markets equity index was down 0.6% and was on course for its sixth straight daily decline.

    Asian markets slipped as they headed to cap a third straight quarter of gains, the longest such winning streak since 2013. Japanese equities rose as the dollar strengthened, while Chinese shares fell ahead of a week-long holiday from Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2 percent, declining for a sixth day, the longest stretch of losses since Dec. 27. Energy stocks paced the retreat as crude oil fell for a third day, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co. the biggest drags on the industry gauge. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.47%) initially picked up on the recent US momentum however, Asia-Pac bourses pulled back from best levels amid a lack of catalysts to fuel the advances and as China clouded the tone with Hang Seng (-0.80%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) both subdued as investors took risk off the table ahead of the mainland’s week-long closure for National Day holidays.

    “Japanese stocks rise today is boosted by the sentiment from the weaker yen,” Andy Ferdinand, head of research at PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia, says by phone from Jakarta. “Some traders might decide to tidy their books before the long holiday in China to avoid any unwanted surprises.”

    The greenback did check back against the yen easing off to 112.62 yen to the dollar having hit a 2-1/2-month high of 113.26 yen the previous day. The Canadian dollar also reversed losses after suffering its biggest drop in eight months on Wednesday, after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz dampened expectations for further interest rate hikes this year. Canada’s loonie was last at C$1.2468 to the U.S. dollar, having early slid to its lowest in a month.

    Commodities were mixed, rebounding after earlier losses, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining 1.1% to $52.69 a barrel, the highest in more than five months, while gold dropped 0.1% to $1,281.30 an ounce, the weakest in more than six weeks. Copper increased 0.4 percent to $6,462.00 per metric ton on the largest climb in more than two weeks.

    In geopolitical news, South Korea is said to believe North Korea could conduct action between October 10th-18th which coincides with North Korea's Communist Party Founding and China's Communist Party Congress, according to sources.

    Brexit rumors have reemerged, with the EU Parliament saying no sufficient progress on Brexit talks, with sources saying the EU are reportedly in discussions with bringing forward talks about the Brexit transition period. At the same time, PM May has stressed the opportunity that Brexit and free markets bring.

    Central bankers from the U.S., U.K. and Australia are among speakers at a Bank of England conference starting in London on Thursday, ensuring the focus will stay firmly on the policy outlook for some of the world’s biggest economies. But that won’t be the only thing on investors’ minds; data is also due on U.S. growth and spending, end-of-quarter volatility may be near and major markets including China will shut next week for a holiday.

    Jobless claims, consumer comfort, 2Q gross domestic product, inventories are due Thursday

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.05% to 2,503.25
    • VIX Index retreats 1.4%, third day of declines
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.02% to 385.54
    • MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 160.54
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.6% to 526.47
    • Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,363.11
    • Topix up 0.7% to 1,676.17
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 27,421.60
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,339.64
    • Sensex up 0.1% to 31,202.16
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,670.39
    • Kospi up 0.02% to 2,373.14
    • German 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 0.49%
    • Euro up 0.09% to $1.1756
    • Brent Futures down 0.09% to $57.85/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 1.857%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 1.661%
    • Gold spot down 0.08% to $1,281.80
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.06% to 93.42
    Bulletin Headline Summary From Ransquawk
    • European markets trade mixed, financials continue to out-perform
    • Greenback gives back slight ground following Trump’s Tax Plan
    • Looking ahead, highlights include German CPIs, US GDP, PCE figures and a slew of central bank speakers
    Top Overnight News
    • Trump and Republican leaders announced a tax framework that would represent a major legislative win this year, while economists disagree on the value of cutting the corporate tax rate
    • Alphabet Inc. was ordered by regulators to stop promoting its own shopping search results over competitors’ and to make changes designed to give rivals fairer treatment by Sept. 28
    • Hong Kong’s appeal as a derivatives hub is growing as Brexit and MiFID II rules set to complicate transactions in Europe
    • The
      Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its advance to a six- week high in
      Asian session before trimming gains as Europe came to the market;
      EUR/USD traded as low as 1.1721 before reversing losses in European
      session amid quarter-end flows and profit taking on shorts.
    • Treasuries
      continued to slide in Asian hours with futures volumes running ~200% of
      recent averages for the session. Losses accelerated after breaking
      200-DMA. Buying of downside in options was seen, in strikes offering
      protection beyond 2.50% in 10y yields. Bunds futures flushed lower from
      the open in Europe, briefly breaching 0.50% for the first time since
      early August, and Treasuries extended losses before stabilizing. On the
      curve the 10y point has seen sharp underperformance.
    • Japan’s opposition forces appeared set to consolidate around Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, whose new political group narrowed a gap in opinion polls with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party weeks ahead of a general election
    • European Union leaders are considering going some way to meet one of the U.K.’s demands; they are discussing bringing forward talks about the transition period that would follow Brexit, according to three people familiar with the situation
    • BOE’s chief economist Haldane told Sky News he’s among the majority of policy makers who believe that the economy is “nearing the point” where a reduction in some stimulus might be warranted and that signs on pay growth have become more ‘encouraging’
    • Euro-area economic confidence surged more than economists forecast in September; “A very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed in the euro area for underlying inflationary pressures to gradually build up,” ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said
    • CAD
      trimmed losses vs USD after drifting below 1.25 for the first time in
      almost four weeks in late Asian hours following soft comments by BOC’s
      Poloz Tuesday.
    • NZD fell a fourth day; RBNZ held official
      cash rate at record-low 1.75% and said monetary policy will remain
      accommodative for a considerable period.
    • Senate Judiciary Tech Subcmte Sets Oct. 4 Hearing on Equifax; Facebook, Twitter, Google Invited to Nov. 1 Senate Cmte Hearing
    Asia equity markets traded mixed after momentum from US petered out and as China prepares for National Day Golden Week. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.47%) initially took firm impetus from the gains on Wall St, where Trump tax plans and outperformance in financials and tech led the S&P 500 to fresh intraday records. However, Asia-Pac bourses have pulled back from best levels amid a lack of catalysts to fuel the advances and as China clouded the tone with Hang Seng (-0.80%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) both subdued as investors took risk off the table ahead of the mainland’s week-long closure for National Day holidays. 10yr JGBs were lower amid a positive risk tone in Japan and after Japanese yields rose across the curve to mirror their US counterparts, while today’s 2yr auction also failed to provide support with its b/c and lowest accepted price weaker than prior. PBoC injected CNY 50bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6285 (Prev. 6.6192) Japan's lower house of parliament was dissolved as expected ahead of snap elections.

    Top Asian News
    • Hedge Funds Bet Billions on Japan Stocks Before Abe Called Vote
    • Indonesia Pledges to Guard Currency as Rupiah Nears 10-Month Low
    • Bank Indonesia Keeps Exchange Rate Target at 13,420/USD Yr- End
    • Toshiba Inks $18 Billion Deal to Sell Chip Arm to Bain Group
    • China to Start New Energy Vehicle Production Quota From 2019
    European equities opened with a marginal bid, following President Trump’s tax plan, sending the greenback and global yields higher. Financials have begun where they left off yesterday and behave as one of the outperforming sectors in the Stoxx 600. Despite the positive open some EU markets lost early gains, as a fall among basic resources and the more defensive, consumer and health sectors weigh. The US fiscal package sell-off has found some support in Europe, with bund yields finding some resistance around the 0.50% level, despite a brief spike through this level we have consolidated below.

    Top European News
    • EU Is Said to Consider Brexit Compromise on Transition Talks
    • Carney Hails BOE Independence, But Says It Can’t Do Everything
    • Liikanen Sees Need for Very Substantial Degree of Accommodation
    • Novartis Is Said to Consider Acquisition of Advanced Accelerator
    • Deutsche Boerse Said to Take Stake in Big Data Company Trifacta
    • Etihad Airways Appoints Tony Douglas as CEO to Lead Overhaul
    In currencies, the greenback remains on the front foot with this being down to somewhat of a corrective move which may continue in the short term. The strength in the USD has been pushed USD/JPY through 113.00 with bulls eyeing key levels of 114.00 through 114.50 (July high). Slight uncertainty from the German election has pressured EUR down to the low 1.17s. EUR relatively flat this morning with month-end buying in EUR/GBP providing some modest support. German CPI regional figures have been mixed, with EUR not finding any momentum following the figures, with anticipation likely to now be on the headline German CPI figure. Last night the RBNZ kept the key interest rate unchanged as expected, stating that accommodation will remain for some considerable time. This is seen in the futures where a hike is not fully priced in until the back-end of next year. The RBNZ also toned down its rhetoric on the currency, given the slightly TWI easing of NZD and as such from the release there was a muted reaction.

    In commodities, WTI continues to trade within the week’s range, yet does continue to recede at the top end, bulls will look to break through this 52.50 area to spur further pressure toward this run. Markets have been aided by early comments from a KPC official says, expects OPEC to extend oil supply cuts beyond March 2018. Gold continues to grind lower amid the recent risk tone, now trading to an over one-month low, weighed upon by the week’s bullish dollar.

    Looking at the day ahead, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP (3% expected), Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s George and Fischer will speak. In the UK, the BOE will hosts the “20 years on” independence conference from the government, with BOE’s Carney, Praet and Lautenschlaeger due to speak

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%; Personal Consumption, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
      • GDP Price Index, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 270,000, prior 259,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.99m, prior 1.98m
    • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $65.1b deficit, prior $65.1b deficit, revised $63.9b deficit
    • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior -0.2%, revised -0.1%
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 50.6
    • 9:45am: Fed’s George Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
    • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 14.5, prior 16
    • 10am: Fed’s Fischer Speaks at BOE Independence Conference, London
    • 1:30pm: Fed’s Raphael Bostic to Speak about Careers in Economics
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Today sees a very high quality conference of speakers to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Independence of the Bank of England. How time flies! Watch out for headlines emanating from the event. The surprise announcement just after the UK election in May 1997 was the main reason I’m in Research today as the events around that day proved how average I was at my job at the time. I realised I had to find a new one. Yes as a young bond salesman the shock BoE Independence announcement led to a huge rally in Gilts that day and every client was on the phone to us simultaneously to try to buy Gilts. I got a call from my biggest client to buy him tens of millions of the 7% 2002 issue. However at the same time every other client was trying to do the same thing and quite frankly their sales person was older, more pushy and more aggressive than me. I was at the back of the queue. From that moment I’d worked out that sales was actually quite difficult. So to all the salespeople on this list....... I admire you!! To all the clients I covered.... “I’m sorry”.

    Bonds yesterday went the other way to that seen on that fateful 1997 day. Yields rose across the globe as firstly Yellen’s words the previous night set the tone but more importantly optimism over Trump’s tax speech later in the day grew. Strong Durable Goods didn’t harm the story either. The reality has been for some time that tax reform is looking increasingly tough but that markets were pricing a near zero probability of anything passing. Such an outcome might still be the case but when expectations are so low any hopes can help the reflation trade.

    On the back of Mr Trump’s tax framework, the S&P 500 rose 0.41% back towards its record high, 10-year treasury yields jumped 7.5bps to 2.311% and the US dollar index gained 0.42% yesterday. Before we recap Mr Trump’s proposals, it’s worth noting that his plans are unfunded and initial estimates by DB’s Peter Hooper and Brett Ryan suggests it could cost up to US$3trn over 10 years, so it will be interesting which part of his plans will eventually make it to formal legislations.

    In terms of specifics it seems to be broadly similar to the leaked details as mentioned in our note yesterday, which includes: 1) cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% (from 35% existing) with businesses allowed to immediately write off their non-building capex for at least five years, 2) companies with untaxed offshore profits (c$2.6trn est.) will be subject to a one-time tax, but the rate is unclear, 3) simplify and cut the individual tax rate to 12%, 25% and 35% (from 39.6%), but leaving the door open for Congress to set a fourth tax bracket for high income earners, 4) middle income earners will benefit from a $12k deduction (c2x higher), 5) for pass-through entities (eg: partnerships and limited liability companies), their tax rate will be capped at 25%, and 6) repealing the existing individual alternative minimum tax (AMT), the estate tax and eliminating most itemized deductions (tax incentives for home mortgage interest and charitable contributions are retained).

    Early reactions on the political front have been somewhat mixed. Trump called the tax framework as “revolutionary change” and the 20% corporate tax rate as a “perfect number” and non-negotiable. Elsewhere, House speaker Ryan said “this is a now or never moment” and “we can finally get this done” and the Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady of Texas said the committee “is ready to turn this framework into legislation”. Conversely, the Senate Finance committee Chairman Orrin Hatch has pledged his committee “would not be a rubber stamp” of the plans, and Senator Bernie Sanders said the plans are “providing hundreds of billions in tax breaks to the wealthiest people and most profitable corporations”. We shall wait and see how Mr Trump’s plans evolve into legislations. Our US team’s early take is that they see a prospect of some reforms occurring at the corporate level (particularly for small corporates), but the potential for substantive reform of personal tax is much lower.

    Turning to the bond market sell-off. In the US, 10y treasury (2y: +3.5bp; 10y: +7.5bp yesterday) yields arenow up c30bp since early September and back at similar levels to late July. They’ve climbed another +2.7bps overnight to 2.337%. In Europe, core bond yields rose c6p (Bunds 10y +6bp; Gilts +5bp; OATs +6bp) while peripherals slightly outperformed with yields up 3-6bp (Italian BTPs +3bp; Portugal: +6bp; Spain +4bp). At the 2 year part of the curve, core bond yields rose by c2bp with US yields hitting 9-year highs.

    This morning Asian markets are trading mixed but little changed. As we type, The Nikkei (+0.30%) and ASX 200 (+0.13%) are up slightly, while the Kospi (-0.14%), Hang Seng (-0.34%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.17%) are marginally softer.

    Back onto markets performance yesterday now. US bourses have all strengthened back towards their record highs. The S&P rose 0.41%, with gains led by the financials (+1.30%) and tech (+1.14%) sectors, while utilities and real estate names fell, partly reflecting the prospects of higher yields. Elsewhere, the Dow (+0.25%) and Nasdaq (+1.15%) have traded higher. In Europe, markets were also higher, with the Stoxx 600, DAX and FTSE all up c0.4%, while the peripherals slightly outperformed (FTSE MIB +0.85%; IBEX 35 +1.76%). Notably, the US small cap index (Russell 2000) had one of the best days since March, rising 1.92% yesterday on the back of Trump’s tax plans.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index strengthened 0.42% (up 2.2% since early Sep.), while the Euro and Sterling fell 0.41% and 0.53% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil was little changed (+0.50%) while precious metals fell modestly (Gold -0.87%; Silver -0.29%) given the risk on bias. Elsewhere, other base metals are trading a bit mixed (Copper +0.02%; Zinc +0.14%; Aluminium -0.37%) but little changed this morning.

    Away from the markets and onto central bankers’ commentaries now. In the US, the Fed’s Bullard sounded a bit dovish, noting “the current level of the policy rate is appropriate” given that inflation “has surprised to the downside in recent months”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Rosengren said “it’s my view that regular and gradual removal of monetary accommodation seems appropriate”. Notably, the odds of a December rate hike as per Bloomberg remains at 70%. Over in Canada, after hiking rates twice since July (+0.50%) to 1%, BOC’s Governor Poloz sounded a bit more cautious, noting there is no “predetermined path for interest rates” and “the appropriate path for interest rates in this situation is very difficult to know”.

    Over in Europe, Germany’s long serving Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (c8 years in the role) is expected to leave Merkel’s cabinet and take up the role of President of the lower house. Some sees his departure as Germany becoming more accommodating towards the Euro area, but the possibility of a member from the FDP taking up the finance post could mean little will change.

    Back in the UK, Bloomberg reports that EU leaders are considering bringing forward talks on the transition period post Brexit as a small concession to kick start the Brexit talks. Elsewhere, the US Commerce Department has imposed a 220% import duties on Canada’s Bombardier jets, citing a complaint by Boeing that the aircraft had received improper subsidies in Canada (Bombardier shares fell 7.49%). The reduced demand for these aircrafts could lead to job losses for workers at the Northern Ireland plants that help build these jets.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the August core capital goods orders (non-defence and ex aircraft) was above markets expectations at 0.9% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) and up 3.6% yoy. The durable goods orders (ex-transport) was in line at 0.2% mom, although the underlying reading is likely stronger given the prior month has been revised upwards by 0.2ppt. Elsewhere, pending home sales fell 2.6% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), partly impacted by Hurricane Harvey, while MBA mortgage applications fell 0.5% (vs. -9.7% previous).

    In Europe,Italy’s September business confidence index rose to a 10-year high at 108.0 (vs. 107 previous). Elsewhere, confidence indicators on manufacturing (110.4 vs. 108.2 expected) and consumers (115.5 vs.110.6 expected; highest since January 2016) were also above expectations. In France, consumer confidence was a touch softer at 101 (vs. 103 expected) while the Eurozone’s M3 money supply expanded at 5% (vs. 4.6% expected). In the UK, the September CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey for September was fairly upbeat, with a net 42% of retailers reporting that sales had grown over the past year – the strongest result in two years.

    Looking at the day ahead,Germany’s September CPI (0.1% mom, 1.9 yoy expected) and GfK consumer confidence readings will be due. For the Eurozone, there is a range of confidence indicators including: consumers, business climate, economy and industrial. Over in the US, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP (3% expected), Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s George and Fischer will speak. In the UK, the BOE will hosts the “20 years on” independence conference from the government, with BOE’s Carney, Praet and Lautenschlaeger due to speak.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/global-bond-rout-accelerates-even-dollar-rally-fizzles
     
  10. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 28

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 28, 2017 8:00 AM

    • GOP Tax Proposal Expected to Benefit Wall Street Firms (WSJ)
    • Trump’s Tax Cuts May Produce Short Job-Growth ‘Sugar High’ (BBG)
    • Playboy founder Hugh Hefner dies at age 91 (Reuters)
    • Mountains of Aid Languish on Docks in Stricken San Juan (BBG)
    • Janet Yellen Can’t Help Retirees (BBG)
    • Macron's EU vision faces reality check at Estonia dinner (Reuters)
    • EU's Barnier Says It May Take Months for Brexit Talks to Move On (BBG)
    • Aramco listing reshapes Saudi Arabia's OPEC oil policy (Reuters)
    • Health Insurers Stay in ACA Despite Fears of Last-Minute Exits (WSJ)
    • Trump Prepares to Pick His Own Auditor at the IRS (BBG)
    • Lyft close to selecting IPO adviser (Reuters)
    • History Shows Even Sovereign Bond Default Won’t Unseat Maduro (BBG)
    • ‘Amazon Effect’ Leads Investors to Sour on Retail Around the World (WSJ)
    • Michael R. Bloomberg: Jeff Sessions Has a Point About Free Speech (BBG)
    • Toshiba $18 billion sale of chip unit signed, but discord emerges immediately (Reuters)
    • Here’s Where the Most Millionaires Are Being Minted (BBG)
    • Video streamer Roku raises $219 million in IPO, prices at top of range (Reuters)
    • Fighting the Toxic Nightmare Next Door (BBG)
    • Apple Interested in Advanced LCDs for Some iPhones in 2018 (WSJ)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ


    - U.S. President Donald Trump and GOP leaders proposed sharply reducing tax rates on businesses and many individuals, starting a major legislative push to overhaul the country's tax code this year. on.wsj.com/2fSLNUq

    - Hugh Hefner, the founder of Playboy magazine, died on Wednesday at the age of 91. on.wsj.com/2wYNup2

    - Hain Celestial Inc reached an agreement with activist investor Engaged Capital LLC calling for changes to the food-and-beverage company's board and opening the door to a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2fSO4Pc

    - Federal securities regulators are investigating an allegation by PepsiCo Inc's former top lawyer Maura Smith that the company fired her in retaliation for the way she handled an internal probe into potential wrongdoing in Russia, according to people familiar with the matter and internal documents. on.wsj.com/2wTzd1v

    - Uber Technologies Inc on Wednesday confirmed it is shutting down its U.S. auto-leasing business, known as Xchange Leasing, which will affect about 500 jobs. on.wsj.com/2k6ugwi


    FT

    Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn set out plans to take on landlords, big business and the establishment in his speech to the annual party conference in Brighton by raising the prospect of tighter rent controls.

    HSBC Holdings Plc is aiming to become the first high-street lender to launch an app next year that allows customers to see all their accounts, as looming regulation threatens to weaken established lenders’ customer relationships.

    Drax Group Plc, owner of Britain’s largest power station, expects its plant in North Yorkshire to play a significant role providing services to UK’s National Grid, such as helping to keep the electricity fed through the system at a stable frequency and providing reserve power to cater for unplanned losses of generation or peaks of demand.

    Former Scottish National Party MP George Kerevan told a conference on Wednesday that he will apply for the top job at the Financial Conduct Authority after its current chairman steps down next year.


    NYT

    - Ford Motor Co and Lyft on Wednesday said they had struck a partnership to develop and test autonomous vehicle designs and technology, with the aim of putting Ford's self-driving vehicles on Lyft's ride-hailing network in the future. nyti.ms/2fAcEYj

    - Ryanair Holdings Plc, dealing with staff shortages that prompted the cancellation of 2,100 flights this month, said on Wednesday that it would cut 18,000 more flights. nyti.ms/2wkXCch

    - Brazil offered the world's oil companies a chance to bid for drilling rights in its waters on Wednesday, and it declared the results encouraging in which 20 companies from eight countries made bids. nyti.ms/2fSn0zK

    - Hugh Hefner, Playboy's founder died Wednesday at his home, the Playboy Mansion near Beverly Hills, California. He was 91. nyti.ms/2fTmW2N

    - Facebook Inc insisted it is pro-democracy and pro-truth and the German election shows it, after U.S. President Donald Trump took aim at Facebook on Wednesday calling the social network "anti-Trump." nyti.ms/2yazEF4



    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau says the federal government's proposed new tax rules will target billions in "dead money" currently parked in small businesses, encouraging owners to pump those savings into the economy. tgam.ca/2hybJbG

    ** Netflix Inc will spend a minimum of C$500 million ($400 million) over five years on the production and distribution of Canadian movies and TV shows as part of a landmark agreement that will be at the centre of Ottawa's new cultural policy, federal sources say. tgam.ca/2yK3kpo

    ** Stelco Holdings Inc plans to raise C$150 million in an initial public offering, money that the Hamilton-based company will plow into production of high quality steel for auto makers and construction projects. tgam.ca/2yKBNEy

    NATIONAL POST

    ** There are 155,000 non-productive oil and gas wells sitting idle in Alberta that pose a potential C$8.6 billion liability to the energy industry and taxpayers, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. bit.ly/2yJ8H8k

    ** Most of Airbnb Inc revenue comes from people renting entire homes that they don't live in, according to a study by real estate company CBRE, and commissioned by Ottawa-based Hotel Association of Canada. bit.ly/2yIONKO

    ** Vancouver tech incubator Istuary Innovation Group is facing lawsuits from investors alleging fraudulent activity and "unjust enrichment." bit.ly/2yKjRKm


    Britain

    The Times

    Piers Pottinger has stepped down as chairman of Bell Pottinger's Asian division after its formal separation from its disgraced British parent company 10 days ago. bit.ly/2wXCwjK

    Scania has been fined 880 million euros ($1.03 billion) as the European Commission closed its file on a cartel of lorry makers told to pay 3.8 billion euros for rigging prices on more than nine out of 10 vehicles they sold in Europe over 14 years. bit.ly/2wWYUi0

    The Guardian

    Google's price comparison service will compete with rivals for the right to appear at the top of the search engine's home page, in an effort to comply with an European Union anti-trust ruling. bit.ly/2fA7xHR

    Ryanair Holding Plc is facing enforcement action from the Civil Aviation Authority for "persistently misleading passengers" about their rights, piling more woe on the no-frills carrier as it announced a second wave of flight cancellations that will affect 400,000 people. bit.ly/2wW6I3k

    The Telegraph

    Uber Technologies Inc has denied it treats drivers differently to other minicab firms in London as it appeals a landmark legal ruling that its drivers are owed workers rights such as sick pay and holiday leave. bit.ly/2yIRrQL

    Civitas Social Housing plc which buys stock from housing associations in order to provide affordable homes, is to launch a 350 million pounds ($469.11 million) equity raise. bit.ly/2fsesPH

    Sky News

    Sky News has learnt that talks about a takeover of Palmer & Harvey which supplies every Tesco Corp outlet in the UK, remained in the balance amid an increasingly urgent need for new investment. bit.ly/2fRlI8b

    Monarch Airlines has landed bids for parts of its struggling short-haul business from rivals including easyJet Plc and WizzAir as it seeks to extricate itself from a bitter industry price war. bit.ly/2xH1es3

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/frontrunning-september-28
     
  11. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-28-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Trump tax plans if passed can result in nearly one percent more GDP growth to the US economy every year. This optimism resulted in gains for the US dollar and the fall in precious metals. Lack of escalation in North Korean risk also added to losses for gold and the yen. My fear is that US corporations can use the reduced taxes as an opportunity of share buy backs instead of paying dividends.
     
  12. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    American Maritime Industry Fights Back Against False Claims on Jones Act and Relief Efforts in Puerto Rico

    September 27, 2017 by Mike Schuler

    [​IMG]
    Workers unload containers of shipping company Crowley from a Jones Act container barge after the area was hit by Hurricane Maria at the port in San Juan, Puerto Rico, September 26, 2017. REUTERS/Alvin Baez

    The American maritime industry is firing back against harsh criticism of the Jones Act in the media and by certain lawmakers in Washington amid the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Puerto Rico.

    Attacks on the Jones Act intensified after the Department of Homeland Security seemingly denied a request to waive Jones Act requirements for Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurrican Maria on Tuesday, saying a waiver was not needed at this time because there are enough American ships bringing supplies to the island.

    “The limitation is going to be port capacity to offload and transit, not vessel availability,” a spokesman for the DHS said Tuesday.

    On Wednesday, however, the DHS said it had not made up its mind on the issue and it was still considering a request by members of Congress to waive the shipping restrictions, but so far it had not received any formal requests from shippers or other branches of the federal government to waive the law.

    “We are considering the underlying issues and are evaluating whether a waiver should be issued,” a senior Homeland Security official told reporters on Wednesday.

    The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, aka the Jones Act, is a federal law requiring goods shipping between two ports in the United States be carried on American-built ships that are mostly owned and crewed by American citizens. The law applies to ships transporting goods between the U.S. mainland and Puerto Rico, although not the U.S. Virgin Islands.

    To get the facts straight on the Jones Act’s impact on hurricane relief efforts in Puerto Rico, we reached out to the American Maritime Partnership, a group representing more than 400 U.S. maritime companies from Alaska to Puerto Rico.

    “A steady stream of additional supplies keeps arriving in Puerto Rico on American vessels and on international ships from around the world. The problem now is distributing supplies from Puerto Rico’s ports inland by surface transportation,” said Thomas Allegretti, Chairman of the American Maritime Partnership.

    Since Maria hit, American maritime companies have moved approximately 9,500 containers of goods in Puerto Rico to help the territory and its residents with the recovery. Foreign-flag vessels are also arriving at the island as they normally do when transporting goods not coming from the United States.

    Allegretti offered another statement later in the day amid reports that thousands of shipping containers loaded with vital supplies were stacking up San Juan:

    “Earlier today, the President responded to a question on the White House lawn regarding the need to waive the Jones Act for the recovery in Puerto Rico. He mentioned that the shippers are not in favor of waiving the Jones Act. He is right and here is why. What we are seeing clearly on the ground is thousands of cargo containers piling up at the port of San Juan, filled with essential goods that the Puerto Rican people desperately need, but not nearly enough trucks and clear roads to distribute the goods. So, the problem at the port is a lack of trucks and delivery routes, not a lack of vessels.

    The President was also right when he said that we have a lot of ships out there right now. Much needed cargo has been delivered to the port, and an armada of U.S. and foreign vessels continues to arrive.

    We continue to work hand in glove with the FEMA and the rest of the Administration to help find solutions to get the goods distributed from the ports to our fellow Americans, and the men and women of American and Puerto Rican maritime, along with foreign shippers, are answering the call.” – Thomas Allegretti, Chairman, American Maritime Partnership

    In response to numerous reports in the media claiming that the Jones Act is somehow hindering relief efforts in Puerto Rico, the AMP provided the following fact check to hopefully set the record straight:

    Claim: The Jones Act prevents cargo from foreign vessels to reach Puerto Rico.

    False. Any foreign vessel can call on Puerto Rico. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted in a 2011 report that two-thirds of the ships serving Puerto Rico were foreign ships. 55 different foreign carriers provided imported cargo to Puerto Rico in a single month, as cited as an example by GAO. Foreign shipping companies compete directly with the American shipping companies in an intensely competitive transportation market.

    Claim: Import costs are at least twice as high in Puerto Rico as in neighboring islands on account of the Jones Act.

    There is no study that supports this statement in any way. In fact, anecdotal evidence about rates indicates that the opposite is true. For example, one analysis shows it is 40% more expensive to ship goods from the U.S. mainland on foreign vessels to the U.S. Virgin Islands (not subject to the Jones Act) than on Jones Act vessels to Puerto Rico.

    Claim: Jones Act vessels lack sufficient capacity to reach communities impacted by Hurricane Maria.

    In the immediate aftermath of the hurricane, one hundred percent of the island was without power, and roads were blocked by downed trees and debris. Goods are arriving to the island on vessels but bottlenecks on the roads are limiting arrival to the communities. The largest bottleneck is not getting goods to the island, but delivering goods once they arrive.

    Domestic maritime companies have the equipment at their terminals to handle the throughput at the terminals without overwhelming the shoreside and inland infrastructure. Domestic maritime roll-on/roll-off barges can immediately discharge cargoes while work is performed to restore power for cranes and other equipment at the terminals. Domestic maritime containerships can deliver cargoes from the U.S. mainland to Puerto Rico in three days.

    Claim: A Jones Act waiver would add efficiency to the delivery of essential cargoes to impacted communities.

    Because of infrastructure challenges, a Jones Act waiver could hinder, not help, relief efforts. A Jones Act waiver could overwhelm the system, creating unnecessary backlogs and causing confusion on the distribution of critical supplies throughout the island. Already there are logistical bottlenecks for Jones Act cargoes as a result of the inability to distribute goods within Puerto Rico due to road blockages, communications disruptions, and concerns about equipment shortages, including trucks, chassis, and containers.

    Claim: The Jones Act adds significantly to the cost of goods in Puerto Rico.

    Over the last decade, a parade of politicians and “experts” have attempted to estimate the so- called “cost” of the Jones Act in Puerto Rico. Because the estimates have been wildly contradictory, in 2012, Puerto Rico Delegate Pierluisi asked the GAO to determine the true “cost.” The GAO studied the issue for more than a year and debunked the previous estimates. First, the GAO said there are far too many factors that impact the price of a consumer good to determine the supposed cost related to shipping, much less the Jones Act. Second, the GAO said, one could not truly estimate the cost unless one knew which American laws would be applied to foreign ships if they were allowed to enter the domestic trades, which would certainly increase the cost of foreign shipping.

    Claim: Changing the Jones Act in Puerto Rico will help the island, especially considering its current economic crisis.

    A GAO study on Puerto Rico listed a number of potential harms to the territory itself if the Jones Act were changed, including the possible loss of the stable service the island currently enjoys under the Jones Act and the loss of jobs on the island. Moreover, American domestic carriers are making some of the largest private sector investments currently underway in Puerto Rico by investing nearly $1 billion in new vessels, equipment, and infrastructure. They employ hundreds of Puerto Rican American citizens on the island and on vessels serving the market, providing highly reliable, low-cost maritime and logistics services. These private sector jobs and reliable services are important to the long-term recovery of the Puerto Rican economy and would be jeopardized by changes to the Jones Act.

    “The men and women of the American maritime industry stand committed to the communities in Puerto Rico impacted by Hurricane Maria, where many of our own employees and their families reside and are working around the clock to respond to the communities in need,” said Allegretti. “As our industry has done in past natural disasters, including most recently Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we are actively working with the Administration, FEMA, MARAD, and relief organizations to deploy quickly and deliver essential goods like food, fuel, first aid supplies, and building materials.”

    Suggested Reading:


    http://gcaptain.com/american-mariti...garding-jones-act-relief-efforts-puerto-rico/
     
  13. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.28.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-28-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/28
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-92817.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/28
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 28, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/a...ed:+Crossingwallstreet+(Crossing+Wall+Street)

    RR - The Boss Talks About His First 'Real' Job 09/28
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-28/the-boss-talks-about-his-first-real-job

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Toshiba Signs Off On Chip Unit Sale 09/28
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4110138-wall-street-breakfast-toshiba-signs-chip-unit-sale

    MtM - Greenback Consolidates while Yields Continue to March Higher 09/28
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/greenback-consolidates-while-yields.html
     
  14. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  15. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DHS Approves Jones Act Waiver for Puerto Rico

    September 28, 2017 by gCaptain

    [​IMG]
    A cargo ship at the port of San Juan, Puerto Rico after the area was hit by Hurricane Maria, September 24, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

    The Trump Administration has approved a temporary waiver of the Jones Act in Puerto Rico amid public outcry to suspend the shipping regulation to help aid the U.S. commonwealth recover after Hurricane Maria devastated the island one week ago.

    Department of Homeland Security Acting Secretary Elaine Duke approved the waiver of the federal Jones Act early Thursday morning in recognition of the severe impacts on Puerto Rico from Hurricanes Irma and Maria. The decision follows a request Wednesday from the governor of Puerto Rico and the Secretary of Defense’s determination that a waiver is in the interest of national defense, the DHS said in a statement.

    The waiver will be in effect for 10 days after signature and covers all products being shipped to Puerto Rico.

    See Also: American Maritime Industry Fights Back Against False Claims on Jones Act and Relief Efforts in Puerto Rico

    “This waiver will ensure that over the next ten days, all options are available to move and distribute goods to the people of Puerto Rico. It is intended to ensure we have enough fuel and commodities to support lifesaving efforts, respond to the storm, and restore critical services and critical infrastructure operations in the wake of these devastating storms,” said Acting Secretary Duke.

    The Jones Act requires that goods shipped between U.S. ports be transported on American-built ships that are owned and crew by Americans.

    The waiver comes after the Trump Administration initially hesitated to approve the waiver, saying the bigger problem was with distribution than the availability of qualified American ships.

    “The limitation is going to be port capacity to offload and transit, not vessel availability,” a spokesman for the DHS said Tuesday.

    Puerto Rican Governor Ricardo Rossello thanked Trump on Twitter for approving the waiver.

    “Really our biggest challenge has been the logistical assets to try to get some of the food and some of the water to different areas of Puerto Rico. We need truck drivers,” said Rossello in an interview with MSNBC.

    “The food is here, the water is here. We welcome more help. But critically, what we need is equipment,” Rossello said.

    The last Jones Act waiver was issued earlier this month to facilitate the movement of petroleum products due to impacts of Hurricane Harvey and Irma. The waiver expired after two weeks after signing without a single request to use the waiver to book a foreign vessel.

    http://gcaptain.com/dhs-approves-jones-act-waiver-puerto-rico/
     
  16. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Mountain of Aid Sitting on Docks in Storm-Stricken San Juan

    September 28, 2017 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    A Crowley container barge at Isla Grande terminal in San Juan, Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria hit on September 27, 2017. Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg

    By Laura Blewitt (Bloomberg) — Thousands of cargo containers bearing millions of emergency meals and other relief supplies have been piling up on San Juan’s docks since Saturday. The mountains of material may not reach storm survivors for days.

    Distributors for big-box companies and smaller retailers are unloading 4,000 20-foot containers full of necessities like food, water and soap this week at a dock in Puerto Rico’s capital operated by Crowley Maritime Corp. In the past few days, Tote Maritime’s terminal has taken the equivalent of almost 3,000. Even with moves to ease shipping to the island, like the Trump administration’s waiver of the Jones Act on Thursday, the facilities have become choke points in the effort to aid survivors of Hurricane Maria.

    “There are plenty of ships and plenty of cargo to come into the island,” said Mark Miller, a spokesman for Crowley, based in Jacksonville, Florida. “From there, that’s where the supply chain breaks down — getting the goods from the port to the people on the island who need them.”

    Read: American Maritime Industry Fights Back Against False Claims on Jones Act and Relief Efforts in Puerto Rico

    About 30 minutes before Wednesday’s 7 p.m. curfew, there were few signs of life at the Crowley port besides circling bats. The ground was muddy and the chain-link fence protecting the containers listed to the side. Without street or traffic lights, the area was dark, except for one illuminated crane holding a yellow container waiting to be set down in a row of its blue and red fellows.

    ‘Biggest Challenge’
    The race to move the boxes could mean life or death. The island of 3.4 million is in the throes of a burgeoning humanitarian crisis, without electricity, mobile-phone service or clean water. Puerto Rico’s power grid went dark during the hottest season of year and may stay down for weeks or months. Of the commonwealth’s 69 hospitals, only 11 have power and fuel. Officials and residents warn of disease without access to clean water.

    The devastation is the result of the third deadly hurricane within the past month to confront the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Defense Department.

    “You have FEMA personnel spread thin, you’ve got DOD personnel spread thin,” said Senator James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma. “Puerto Rico is the biggest challenge of all of them. It’s obliterated their ports, their airports, their infrastructure, their electricity, and supplies need to go by boats. It’s a very challenging situation.”

    The recovery has lagged due to what Governor Ricardo Rossello on Thursday called the “total collapse” of power infrastructure.

    Federal aid is beginning to flow, with Marines and Seabee engineers assessing damage and clearing roads. In addition to activation of 1,460 members of the National Guard, the governors of New York and New Jersey are sending emergency teams. Rossello said 33 hospitals are functioning, 170 shelters open and there are 11 aid-distribution centers

    Maria was the “worst natural catastrophe” to occur on the island, affecting the entirety of the territory, he said.

    The U.S. government has now shipped 4 million meals and 1.59 million gallons of water. Rosello said 2 million more gallons are expected to come in days. Domestic firms have moved 9,500 containers to Puerto Rico, according to the American Maritime Partnership. Early Thursday, six tankers holding almost 76,000 gallons of fuels like gasoline and diesel were anchored in the waters outside the island, Bloomberg vessel-tracking data show.

    “The Federal Government has responded to our petitions to treat this as an unprecedented event and they are doing so,” Rossello said. “This is a united front, and we are working together and using the resources that the federal government and local state governments are sending to be able to pass this emergency and put a baseline of stability and put a path forward to building a stronger, more resilient Puerto Rico.”

    Driverless Trucks
    Trucks are ready to be loaded with the goods and precious diesel for backup generators, but workers aren’t around to drive. Instead, they’re caring for families and cleaning up flood damage — and contending with the curfew.

    The buildings that would receive supplies are destroyed and without electricity, Miller said. The transport companies that have staff available and diesel on hand encounter downed poles and power lines while navigating 80,000-pound tractor-trailers on delicate washed-out roads.

    “It’s one thing to move a little car through there,” Miller said. “It’s another to move a semi truck.”

    Russel L. Honore, a retired Army lieutenant general who took over the federal response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, said the efforts in Puerto Rico require what he called “expeditionary logistics” — ships, aircraft and trucks that can move goods onto and around the island.

    “The only people with that are the U.S. military,” Honore said in a phone interview Wednesday. “We need a military commander to run it.”

    Brigadier General Rich Kim, the U.S. Army North deputy commanding general, will establish a headquarters to help manage the response, the Defense Department said in a news release.

    Faraway Debate
    In Washington, debate swirled this week around the 1920 Jones Act, which requires shipments of goods between two U.S. ports to be made with American-flagged vessels, limiting the amount of shipping and driving up its cost. Early Thursday, President Donald Trump authorized a waiver of the rule to ease the emergency response. Critics of the rule said suspending it — or ending it — is key to helping the stricken island throughout the week.

    The administration temporarily lifted the rule earlier this month to ensure gasoline-starved Florida received supplies after Hurricane Harvey. And foreign ships that took on gasoline or diesel before 11:59 p.m. Sept. 22 under that waiver are still allowed to unload on U.S. soil, Customs and Border Protection spokesman Gregory Moore said last week.

    At least one foreign tanker that left Louisiana last week took advantage of the existing waiver to help Maria victims in Puerto Rico, according to shipping and chartering data compiled by Bloomberg. Note: The DHS said it received no requests to use the waiver and it was allowed to expire Sept 22.

    “The waivers make sense in instances where there’s a need and a demand and we’ve exhausted all possible U.S. flagged resources,” said Klaus Luhta, vice president of the International Organization of Masters, Mates and Pilots, a union that represents crews on U.S.-flagged vessels. “But to not go through that process is unfortunate, it’s disingenuous and it violates the law.”

    Meanwhile, Crowley’s storage space in San Juan is clogged by containers full of goods that normally would go on the shelves of stores like Wal-Mart. Miller said those boxes must move so the company can get even more emergency supplies on the ground.

    “Priority right now is on the government relief cargo,” Miller said. “The sooner we can get commercial customers to come pick up their loads, the quicker we can get those shipping containers back in circulation.”

    © 2017 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/mountain-of-aid-sitting-on-docks-in-storm-stricken-san-juan/
     
  17. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Bounce Higher
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold saw slight losses in Asia, but it then chopped back higher in London and New York and ended near its late session high of $1288.70 with a gain of 0.2%. Silver rose to as high as $16.892 and ended with a gain of 0.54%.
     
  18. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Dollar Ends Best Week Of The Year With A Whimper As Global Stocks Push All Time Highs

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 29, 2017 6:58 AM

    The dollar rally paused on Friday and looked poised to finish its best weekly gain of the year with a whimper, when in a repeat of the Thursday session the, Bloomberg dollar index first rose more than 0.1% during Asia hours before slumping around the European open as month and quarter-end flows came into play again.

    U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investors awaited data on personal spending, which however is likely to be distorted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, while both European and Asian shares were in the green. European equities drifted higher, headed for the best month this year, while stocks in Asia also followed the S&P 500 higher earlier. Treasuries were steady after a selloff that saw yields jump 18 basis points this week, the most since Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory in November. Emerging-market assets rallied, with stocks rising and most currencies strengthening against the greenback.

    After an initial bout of euphoria over Trump’s tax plan - which still needs approval from Congress although it currently lacks detail, leaving investors guessing which parts of the package will be prioritized by the administration - the renewed "Trump trade" paused as profits were taken on some of the recent reflation trades. Though with the chances of higher U.S. interest rates by the end of the year now at about 65%, they have driven equities higher and taken money out of gold, which was on track for its worst month this year, suggesting that the Fed has once again failed to send a tightening message to markets.

    “Trump’s fiscal package continues to drive markets,” said Societe Generale analyst Guy Stear. “U.S. bond yields have climbed both as a direct response to tax cut fears and as the market’s wider risk appetite returned.” He said the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a two-month high of 2.36% on Thursday, was driving the dollar higher.

    [​IMG]


    The euro swung between gains and losses around a pivotal level as supportive month- and quarter-end flows were countered by choppy trading. European data underscored the region’s economic recovery with German unemployment fallling to a record low in September, bolstering the ECB case to tighten and reduce asset purchases in coming months. The EUR traded within 0.2 percent of the psychologically significant $1.1800 level in London trading. Though the euro is headed for its first monthly drop since February, it is still up for a third quarter, a performance not seen in more than three years. As such, the EUR/USD reversed its drop and rose 0.1% to 1.1801. European exporters were helped in the early session by the dip in the Euro, and nudged the pan-European STOXX 600 index up to a two-month high, while Europe's miners were green across the board in reflex to Chinese action.

    [​IMG]

    This morning in Asia, markets are trading broadly higher. Note the Chinese markets will be closed for a week from next Monday given their Golden week holidays. Asian shares regained some poise after several days of declines, with the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex Japan bounding 0.4%, but still down 1.7% for the week so far. For the quarter, it looked set to gain 4.7%. Chinese H shares capped their biggest monthly loss this year, despite edging higher Friday ahead of national holidays. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closes up 0.3% for monthly loss of 3.4%, the worst since December. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%; posts first monthly decline this year, down 1.5%; for 3Q, the gauge climbs 7% and it remains Asia’s best performing major index this year. The MSCI China Index rallied 0.5% oon Friday, posting its ninth monthly gain and +0.3% in September. The ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.03%) were both initially subdued as energy weighed on Australia after crude prices fell over 1%, while Japanese sentiment was dampened from the prior day’s currency strength and as participants digested a deluge of mixed data releases. However, markets recovered alongside a jubilant China where Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were underpinned on retailer optimism ahead of the National Day holiday and as financials benefitted after the banking regulator confirmed it is studying plans to further open up the industry

    As a result, Euro zone stocks hit their highest in three months, on track for a quarterly gain after falling back in the second quarter. That helped push world stocks up 0.14% , with MSCI’s all-country world index, which tracks shares in 46 countries, gaining for 11 consecutive months - its longest winning run since 2004.

    Meanwhile, GBP saw some added volatility amid the aforementioned month-end flow, alongside comments from BoE’s Carney with the Governor noting that the committee has seen a downtick in productivity due to Brexit uncertainty. GBP/USD slumped as low as -0.5% to 1.3353 first after BOE’s Carney said he is thinking about "taking foot off the accelerator", it then jumped back above 1.3400 as he reiterated that rates may rise in coming months, in a limited and gradual pace, only to drop once again following weak eco data showing the current account deficit ballooning to GBP 23bln, while GDP for the second quarter was revised down to 1.5 percent from a previous estimate of 1.7 percent as service sector output fell -0.2%. Swedish krona slid as Stefan Ingves appointed to a third term as Riksbank governor.


    [​IMG]

    Over the weekend, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Spanish region of Catalonia, where separatist groups urged supporters to defy efforts to block an independence referendum on Sunday.

    "At the moment, there is no significant market impact from the tensions, but if the Catalan police and the Spanish police are standing there in front of the polling stations and discussing whether to block the station or not, this will be an issue,” said DZ Bank strategist Sebastian Fellechner.

    In euro zone bond markets, lower-than-expected German inflation data released on Thursday led many to speculate that the corresponding figure for the bloc as a whole, due on Friday, would also disappoint. Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 0.46 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 1.33 percent, the largest drop in almost three weeks. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed less than one basis point to 2.31 percent.

    In commodities, it's been a quiet morning in commodities with WTI and Brent crude showing a slight pullback from some of the losses seen late yesterday. WTI looking to make a retest back to USD 52, after rejecting the break above the 1 week high. Precious metals have been led by risk flow, as month end unwinds are evident, with a bid seen through the European morning following the bearish September. Gold consolidates back in summer levels, back within pre- August 25th highs. Gold, under pressure due to the stronger dollar, was set for its biggest monthly fall of the year. The metal was last all but flat at $1,287 an ounce.

    Market Snapshot
    • Dow, E-Mini S&P 500 and E- Mini Nasdaq 100 futures little changed
    • S&P 500 +0.1% to a fresh record-high at 2,510.06 on Thursday
    • VIX Index increases 0.7%, ending 3-day decline... for now
    • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,288.70
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.02% to 93.11
    • WTI crude down 0.1% to $51.53, Brent unchanged at $57.41
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 386.42
    • MSCI Asia up 0.4% to 161.21
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.6% to 529.56
    • Nikkei down 0.03% to 20,356.28
    • Topix down 0.08% to 1,674.75
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,554.30
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,348.94
    • Sensex up 0.7% to 31,508.30
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,681.61
    • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,394.47
    • German 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 0.454%
    • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1799
    • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $57.61/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 1.829%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.61%
    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • GBP sees some pressure as UK GDP misses
    • European Equities marginally higher on the final trading session of the quarter
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and a slew of Central Bank Speakers
    Top Overnight News
    • U.S. regulators are planning to release American International Group Inc. from the special government oversight ordered for the insurer after its central role in the 2008 financial crisis
    • Deutsche Bank had its long-term credit grade cut one level by Fitch Ratings late Thursday, which said the lender will take longer to revive growth under a turnaround plan unveiled in March
    • Ken Griffin’s Citadel LLC is returning capital to some of the clients in one of its multi-strategy hedge funds as it seeks to tighten up its investor base
    • Iron ore is down 20 percent in September, putting it on course for the first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2015, and there’s rising concern that the final three months of the year may bring further declines
    • London house prices posted their first annual decline since the financial crisis
    • U.K. 2Q GDP rises 0.3% q/q in line with previous estimate
    • Euro-zone September inflation comes in at 1.5%, below consensus of 1.6%. Core CPI also below consensus at 1.1%
    • Uber CEO Will Meet With London Regulators Over License Ban
    • U.S. equity funds see outflows of $7.6b in week to Sept. 27, largest in
      14 weeks, BofAML strategists write in note, citing EPFR Global data
    • “If the economy continues on this track it’s been on -- and all indications are that it is -- then in the relatively near term, you could expect interest rates to increase,” BOE Governor Mark Carney says in an interview on BBC Radio 4
    • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is set to keep his seat on the Politburo Standing Committee at an upcoming meeting of the party congress next month, South China Morning Post reports
    • German unemployment slid to record low in September in a sign that Europe’s largest economy will continue to expand on the back of domestic spending while August unadjusted retail sales expanded 2.8% y/y vs est. +3.2%

    Asia equity markets were positive on what was a range-bound day heading into quarter-end and after a similar close on Wall St, where the S&P 500 eked another fresh record. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.03%) were both initially subdued as energy weighed on Australia after crude prices fell over 1%, while Japanese sentiment was dampened from the prior day’s currency strength and as participants digested a deluge of mixed data releases. However, markets then recovered alongside a jubilant China where Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were underpinned on retailer optimism ahead of the National Day holiday and as financials benefitted after the banking regulator confirmed it is studying plans to further open up the industry. 10yr JGBs were modestly higher on mild short covering and with the BoJ present in the market for JPY 710bln of JGBs ranging from the belly to the super-long end. BoJ Summary of Opinions for September 20th-21st meeting stated Japan's economy is expanding moderately and the best way to achieve the price goal is to patiently maintain current easy policy. There was also an opinion that the BoJ needs to ease policy further to support demand due to expected impact from scheduled sales tax hike.
    • Japanese National CPI (Aug) Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%); Core CPI Y/Y 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.5%).
    • Japanese Industrial Production (Aug P) M/M 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. -0.8%); Y/Y 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 4.7%)
    • Japanese Retail Sales (Aug) M/M -1.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%); Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.8%)
    PBoC refrained from open markets operations today. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6369 (Prev. 6.6285) Chinese Premier Li is said to remain in position for another term, according to Hong Kong press reports.

    Top Asia News
    • China Uber-Rich Prompt Haitong to Build Hong Kong Private Bank
    • BOJ Keeps October Bond Purchase Ranges Unchanged From September
    • S&P Estimates China’s Debt Will Expand 77% by 2021
    • Cryptocurrency Exchanges Get Nod to Operate in First for Japan
    • After Panda Bond, Philippines to Explore Dim Sum in Funding Push
    European equities are looking for a strong finish this week with EU bourses modestly higher following the outperformance in material names. In terms of stock specific movers, Volkswagen shares fell amid reports that the company will suffer negative special items of around EUR 2.5bln. Alongside equities, EGBs have been bid this morning which is most likely down to technical factors such as month and quarter end adjustments, as well as some short covering ahead of the weekend. Germany curve showing a flattening bias this morning with outperformance in the long-end.

    Top European News
    • Euro-Area Inflation Fails to Improve as ECB Prepares for QE Talk
    • Deutsche Bank Rating Cut by Fitch as Cryan Turnaround Stalls
    • London House Prices Decline for First Time in Eight Years
    • U.K. Consumers Display Resilience as Saving Ratio Climbs
    • May Pledges Britain Will Defend EU From Russian Aggression
    • Germany Sept. SA Unemployment Change -23K M/m; Est. -5K M/m
    In currencies, the EUR is slightly firmer this morning, above 1.18 (1.2bln worth of expires at 1.18-1.1815) with cross related buying in EUR/GBP supporting the currency. This comes amid usual month-end demand, consequently taking EUR/GBP back to 0.8800. However, the undertone for EUR remains weak, following Merkel’s wobble in the German Elections, while yesterday’s inflation readings from Germany had also been relatively subdued. The USDJPY nursed some of the prior day’s declines, which was slightly aided by the release of the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from the September meeting which suggested to patiently maintain current easy policy and that further policy easing may be needed to support demand on the impact from the scheduled sales tax hike. However, price action was contained as participants also digested a slew of mixed Japanese data in which Core CPI printed its firmest YTD of 0.7% but was in-line with estimates and still a distance from the 2% target, while Industrial Production surged and Retail Sales disappointed. Cable saw some volatility amid the aforementioned month-end flow, alongside comments from BoE’s Carney with the Governor noting that the committee has seen a downtick in productivity due to Brexit uncertainty. Carney also reiterated that the majority of members may see a need to raise rates if the economy stays on track. A slew of data this morning further pressured GBP with the current account deficit ballooning to GBP 23bln, while service sector output fell -0.2%

    In commodities, a quiet morning in commodities with WTI and Brent crude showing a slight pullback from some of the losses seen late yesterday. WTI looking to make a retest back to USD 52, after rejecting the break above the 1 week high. Precious metals have been led by risk flow, as month end unwinds are evident, with a bid seen through the European morning following the bearish September. Gold consolidates back in summer levels, back within pre- August 25th highs.

    Looking at the day ahead, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Onto other events, there is the BOJ’s summary of opinions for its September meeting. In the UK, IMF’s Lagarde and BOE’s Broadbent will speak at the BOE conference (Mr Draghi has cancelled his talk due to a relative’s sickness). Over in the US, the Fed’s Harker will speak at a Fintech event.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
      • 8:30am: Real Personal Spending, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
      • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.4%
      • 8:30am: PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
    • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 58.7, prior 58.9
    • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 95.3, prior 95.3; Current Conditions, prior 113.9; Expectations, prior 83.4; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.7%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%
    • 11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Fintech Event on Consumers and Banking
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Welcome to the last day of September and the quarter. There’s always a slight randomness to month and quarter end trading as investors adjust portfolios! The penultimate day of the month initially saw the sudden global bond rout continue after the more optimistic take on tax reform continued before a slight miss on German inflation seems to reverse the decline. 10 year Bund and Treasuries yields saw an intra-day peak of 0.516% and 2.357% respectively, before closing +1.1bp and -0.2bp at 0.475% and 2.309% (+0.7bp this morning in Asia). The yield lows this month were 0.302% and 2.04%.

    Yesterday, both the German and Spanish CPI readings missed slightly. In Germany, the September CPI was a touch below market expectations at 0% mom (vs. 0.1%), leaving annual growth at 1.8% yoy (vs. 1.9%). Similarly, Spain’s CPI also missed at 0.6% mom (vs. 0.8% expected) and 1.9% yoy (vs. 2.0%). Looking ahead, we have CPI for the Eurozone, France, Italy and Poland today, along with the US August PCE Core, all of which could help dictate how bonds will end for the month. This morning, the August core Japanese national CPI (ex-fresh food) was in line at 0.7% yoy while IP beat expectations at 2.1% mom (vs. 1.8%). The DB house view on 10 years bonds is for YE yields of 2.75% (USTs) and 0.65% (Bunds) but as DB's Francis Yared suggested yesterday the scale of the move over the last 36 hours has been a surprise as he believes the tax plan is just an opening bid and likely to be pared down. So a long way to go although at least we've moved away from pricing no probability of a tax plan passing.

    One event that has slipped a bit under the radar is the independence referendum in Catalonia on Sunday. It's been deemed illegal and therefore it’s all a bit confusing as to what will happen on Sunday, whether it will indeed go ahead and what happens next. Remember 3 years ago a non-binding ballot saw 80% support independence albeit on a 30% turnout.

    Continuing on the theme of breaking away, the EU’s Brexit negotiator Barnier noted yesterday that “we are not yet there in terms of achieving sufficient progress” and signalled that it could take weeks or months before the talks can move onto a trade deal, as one of the sticking points remains that UK has not outlined what it thinks the country owes to the EU. Conversely, he did show some optimism, noting the UK PM’s Florence speech “has created a new dynamic in our negotiations, and we have felt this”. The next round of talks will begin from October 9th, two weeks before the EU Summit.

    This morning in Asia, markets are trading broadly higher.The Kospi (+0.56%), Hang Seng (+0.21%) and Chinese bourses are up c0.5% as we type, while the Nikkei is down -0.29%. Note the Chinese markets will be closed for a week from next Monday given their Golden week holidays.

    Back onto Mr Trump’s tax plans which still lacks many details especially on where it’s funding will come from. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the plans will actually “cut” the US deficit by US$1trn, as the plans “will not only pay for itself, but it will pay down debt” by generating additional revenue. Conversely, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the plans could add US $2trn to the deficit over the next 10 years. Notably, a Bloomberg survey suggests 21 out of 26 economists expect the tax plans to increase the budget deficit. Elsewhere, White House’s economic advisor Gary Cohn said the tax plans was aimed at helping the middle class, but he could not guarantee that everyone in that tax bracket would get a cut.

    Staying in the US, the Fed’s Esther George reiterated the US economy is in a “reasonably good shape” and that recent storms will hit 3Q growth, but is likely to be offset as rebuilding efforts gets underway. On rates, she said a gradual monetary tightening “will benefit the long run sustainable growth and financial stability in the US”.

    Quickly recapping yesterday’s market performance now. US equities strengthened further, with the S&P up 0.12% to a fresh all-time high, while the Dow rose 0.18% and Nasdaq was flat following larger gains the day before. Within the S&P, most sectors advanced slightly, with only the industrials (-0.09%) and consumer discretionary sector marginally down. Elsewhere, the small caps index (Russell 2000) rose a further 0.27%, likely building on the optimism from Trump’s tax plans. Over in Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained (+0.19%) for the six consecutive day, while the DAX (+0.37%) and FTSE (+0.13%) also increased slightly. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dipped 0.30%, but Sterling gained 0.41%, partly helped by BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane’s comment that policy tightening should be considered good news for UK. In commodities, WTI oil fell 1.11% as investors consider whether rising output from US shale assets will offset OPEC’s efforts for production cuts. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly higher yesterday (Gold +0.35%; Silver +0.67%), while other base metals are also trading (Copper +1.90%; Zinc +1.07%) higher this morning.

    Away from the markets and onto Japan. A former ally of PM Abe has just formed a new party on Wednesday with reasonable traction as per the polls. Tokyo’s first female governor Yuriko Koike has formally launched her Party of Hope, seeking a “tolerant, conservative reform party”. According to a survey by Mainichi newspaper, it found 18% of respondents would vote for Hope vs. 29% for Abe’s party. We will watch and see whether PM Abe’s opportunistic choice for a snap election on the 22 October will eventually pay off.

    Finally, our European equity strategist Sebastian Raedler has published “European equity strategy – Market overview” and in it expects European equities to end the year close to current levels, with his models pointing to temporary upside to around 400 for the Stoxx 600 (around 4% above current levels). Yet, with Euro area PMIs at 56.3, consistent with 3%+ Euro area GDP growth, significantly above our economists’ growth forecast of 2.0% for 2018, he sees scope for PMI momentum (the six-month change in PMIs and a key driver of equity market momentum) to turn meaningfully negative in Q1 next year, leading to renewed downside for the market.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up the other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the final reading of 2Q GDP was slightly higher at 3.1% qoq (vs. 3.0% expected), mainly due to a positive revision in inventories. The 2Q core PCE (0.9% qoq) and personal consumption (3.3%) were both unchanged. More up to date economic readings showed the August wholesale inventories was ahead of expectations at 1% (vs. 0.4% expected) and the advance goods trade balance deficit was not as wide as anticipated (-$62.9bn vs. -$65.1bn). Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index was above expectations at 17 (vs. 15 expected) – the second highest reading over the past six years. Finally, the continuing claims (1,934k vs. 1,993k expected) and initial jobless claims (272k vs. 270k expected) were broadly in line.

    For the Eurozone, numerous September confidence indicators beat expectations. The economic sentiment index rose 1pt to a fresh 10-year high (113 vs. 112 expected), while both the business climate (1.34 vs. 1.12 expected) and industrial confidence (6.6 vs. 5.2 expected) also beat. The consumer confidence was in line at -1.2. Elsewhere, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence was slightly lower than expected at 10.8 (vs. 11) while Spain’s retail sales rose 1.6% yoy in August (vs. 1.2% yoy previous).

    Looking at the day ahead, we have the Eurozone CPI (1.2% yoy expected for core) along with CPI & PPI for France and Italy. In Germany, there is unemployment change for September. In the UK, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP along with mortgage approvals and money supply M4 stats. Over in the US, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Onto other events, there is the BOJ’s summary of opinions for its September meeting. In the UK, IMF’s Lagarde and BOE’s Broadbent will speak at the BOE conference (Mr Draghi has cancelled his talk due to a relative’s sickness). Over in the US, the Fed’s Harker will speak at a Fintech event.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ear-whimper-global-stocks-push-all-time-highs
     
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    Frontrunning: September 29

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 29, 2017 8:00 AM

    • Republican Tax Plan Hits First Hurdle (WSJ)
    • A $6.4 Billion Windfall Awaits Big U.S. Banks in Trump's Tax Cut (BBG)
    • How Does the Trump Tax Plan Affect You? WSJ Answers Your Questions (WSJ)
    • Twitter suspends Russia-linked accounts, but U.S. senator says response inadequate (Reuters)
    • Flight ban on Iraqi Kurds imposed after independence vote (Reuters)
    • Elon Musk’s New Vision: Anywhere on Earth in Under One Hour (BBG)
    • Kurdistan region refuses to hand over border crossings to Iraqi government: Rudaw (Reuters)
    • Independence Vote Tests Catalonia’s Police Force (WSJ)
    • Uber CEO Khosrowshahi to Visit U.K. to Rescue London License (BBG)
    • Chinese Money Is Still Leaking Into the World’s Housing Markets (BBG)
    • Russia accuses CNN International of violating Russian media law (Reuters)
    • Dems on Trump’s Voter Fraud Panel Push Back (BBG)
    • Schumer says senators close to bipartisan deal on health exchanges (Reuters)
    • VW's dieselgate bill hits $30 billion after another charge (Reuters)
    • VW Takes New $2.9 Billion Hit From Diesel Scandal (WSJ)
    • Iron Ore Becomes Punch Bag as China Concerns Drive 20% Collapse (BBG)
    • U.S. visas to six Muslim nations drop after Supreme Court backs travel ban (Reuters)
    • P&G CEO Blasts Nelson Peltz as Tensions Mount Over Board Vote (BBG)
    • Lyft IPO puts investors in self-driving cars as well as ride services (Reuters)
    • World’s Biggest Oil Company Promised Expats Idyllic Lifestyle—Then Fire Erupted (WSJ)
    • Chaos and hackers stalk bitcoin investors (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest


    WSJ

    - A day after announcing their tax plan, Senate Republicans debated scaling back one of their largest and most controversial proposals to pay for lower tax rates - repeal of the individual deduction for state and local taxes. on.wsj.com/2yJB9qV

    - Twitter Inc on Thursday offered its first public information on Russian use of its platform during the U.S. presidential election, but its limited disclosure only fueled criticism from lawmakers who are pushing for greater transparency from internet companies over how their platforms are manipulated. on.wsj.com/2ycE5iG

    - China will force auto makers to accelerate production of electric vehicles by 2019, a move that will ripple around the globe as the industry bends to the will of the world's largest car market. on.wsj.com/2x0wE9d

    - Eight months after Toshiba Corp said it wanted to sell part of its memory-chip unit, it finally signed a $18 billion deal on Thursday with a buyer group which is led by Bain Capital LLC and will get financing from Apple Inc, South Korean chip maker SK Hynix Inc and other technology companies. on.wsj.com/2xHcRxo

    - Chevron Corp on Thursday named Michael Wirth as its next chief executive who will be succeeding John Watson on Feb. 1. on.wsj.com/2xFAfeZ

    - The U.S. Supreme Court said Thursday it would consider whether public employees can be required to pay union dues, revisiting an issue that deadlocked the court after Justice Antonin Scalia's death last year. on.wsj.com/2yKMvL3


    FT

    Prime Minister Theresa May is being urged to deliver on her promise to cut energy bills for 17 million households in a cross-party letter signed by nearly 200 MPs, including 76 Conservatives.

    Brompton issued a voluntary recall of 144,000 of its folding bicycles saying all of its bikes manufactured between April 2014 and May 2017 contained axles that had shown a higher than expected failure rate.

    The UK Financial Conduct Authority said on Thursday there was no justification for any changes to the rules governing asset managers, firing a salvo against an attempt by European regulators to shake up the rules after Brexit.

    Lawyers representing two Uber drivers argued in front of an employment tribunal on Thursday that the ride-hailing firm is an employer and not just an agent connecting drivers to passengers as the company sets the fees, determines the routes for the driver and adjudicates when passengers complained about the journeys

    NYT

    - Chevron Corp on Thursday said Michael Wirth, a career Chevron employee with long experience in pipelines and refineries, will succeed John Watson as chairman and chief executive in February. nyti.ms/2xKgWCW

    - Flights were delayed and travelers struggled to check in at airports around the world on Thursday after a software program Altea, used by several major airlines went down. nyti.ms/2fvNSF8

    - Rovio Entertainment Ltd, the company behind the Angry Birds empire, was valued at about $1 billion as it prepared to go public on Friday. nyti.ms/2xOiuw4

    - Toshiba Corp said it had signed a deal to sell 60 percent of the microchip unit to a group of international investors that includes Bain Capital and Apple Inc. The deal will net Toshiba about $14 billion. nyti.ms/2fBloNW

    - New legislation backed by Australia's governing Liberal party would eliminate restrictions separating broadcast media from print media and would allow media companies to own more outlets in a city. nyti.ms/2ycvtZd


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** U.S. President Donald Trump's negotiators tabled stringent Buy American demands at the NAFTA talks in Ottawa that would drastically curtail bidding by Canadian companies on U.S. government-funded infrastructure projects. tgam.ca/2hA4VdC

    ** Unifor officials and senior General Motors Co executives held what a union leader called a productive two-hour meeting Thursday in Detroit in an attempt to end an 11-day-old strike at the auto maker's Cami Automotive assembly plant in Ingersoll, Ontario. tgam.ca/2hAU3MC

    ** The reborn Stelco Inc plans to return to profitability by muscling back into the market for automotive steel, but its attempt to grab back auto business comes as vehicle sales and production begin sliding from their current peak. tgam.ca/2hC0ZZC

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Polls by Forum Research suggest Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne's ongoing war on economists is paying dividends. bit.ly/2hASw9e

    ** The number of public proxy contests undertaken in Canada may be on the decline, but that doesn't mean activism is having less of an impact on Canadian companies according to a report by Kingsdale Advisors. bit.ly/2hBMbuh

    ** Internet experts are questioning Canada's new funding framework for the cultural sector. Experts are skeptical of the announcement which was made by Canada's Heritage minister Melanie Joly as it lacked any funding for news organizations. bit.ly/2hCdbtj


    Britain

    The Times

    Palmer & Harvey is close to striking a takeover deal with Carlyle, the U.S. buyout firm, after securing emergency funding from two of its main suppliers. bit.ly/2fvLo9O

    BT Group Plc could be forced to stump up an extra 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion) over the next two years to reduce its growing pension deficit, posing a cashflow problem for the telecom group, a leading credit rating agency has warned. bit.ly/2xFnj8G

    The Guardian

    The British manufacturer Brompton has embarked on an unprecedented recall of nearly 150,000 of its folding bikes over concerns about faulty axles. bit.ly/2ywyEHh

    Lloyd's of London, the world's biggest insurance market, has started paying out the first of $4.5 billion of claims related to tropical storm Harvey and Hurricane Irma, which wreaked havoc in the southern U.S. and Caribbean. bit.ly/2yvVUVT

    The Telegraph

    The future of Ford Motor Co's Bridgend plant has been thrown into further doubt after luxury car maker Jaguar Land Rover revealed it was bringing forward the end of a contract to produce engines at the Welsh site. bit.ly/2xB1xp6

    Theresa May said Transport for London's decision to stop Uber Technologies Inc operating in the capital has "damaged lives" and called the ban "disproportionate". bit.ly/2k4PL0w

    Sky News

    Pension trustees at Carillion Plc the crisis-hit construction group, have called in the world's largest audit firm to advise them amid a massive financial restructuring. bit.ly/2ydlYZO

    The head of UK's aviation regulator has told Sky News that he takes a promise by Ryanair Holding Plc to meet its obligations over mass flight cancellations "with a pinch of salt". bit.ly/2k4QiQ4

    The Independent

    Royal Mail Plc is seeking to employ 20,000 temporary workers to help sort the Christmas post and manage an increasing amount of online Christmas shopping, the company has said. ind.pn/2yKZ6Oy

    Nearly a third of all UK electricity came from renewable sources in the second quarter of this year, setting a new record for clean energy generation, the government said. ind.pn/2fBcqAb

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-29/frontrunning-september-29
     
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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.29.17
    https://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-29-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/29
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-92917.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/29
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 29, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-29-2017.html

    CWS Market Review – September 29, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/cws-market-review-september-29-2017.html

    RR - Dangerous Myths and the New Science of Sleep 09/29
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-29/dangerous-myths-and-the-new-science-of-sleep

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Tensions Weigh On Catalonia Referendum 09/29
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4110528-wall-street-breakfast-tensions-weigh-catalonia-referendum

    MtM - Dollar's Gains Pared, but Set to Snap Six Month Losing Streak Against the Euro 09/29
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/dollars-gains-pared-but-set-to-snap-six.html
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-29-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    The good thing about October is that the interest rate factor by the Federal Reserve will not be there. The next FOMC meet is on the 1st of November. The interest rate factor will not haunt gold and silver in October unless chances of a no hike are there in December. Europe and Japan will take center stage in October as Japan goes for snap polls and Germany’s politics take shape. The USA will make it to the headlines if Trump’s tax reforms turns out to be a big dud. In case the US senate does not pass the Trump tax reforms then the US dollar will nosedive in the short term.
     
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    SD Metals & Markets Wrap.............

    2008 Was Only the Warm Up | Silver Guru David Morgan
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Sep 29, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    Silver guru David Morgan tells Silver Doctors the gold market may be week in the short term. However, he warns there are many possible black swans out there, and any one could take gold much higher overnight.

    Gold and silver fell this week. Eric Dubin says the Fed’s balance sheet normalization news was the primary catalyst for pushing the metals down. Morgan says if gold doesn’t break back above $1300, gold will continue to get weaker toward the end of the year.

    However, the miners have been weathering the storm well which is bullish for the sector, Morgan says.

    All this and much more on this weeks SD Metals & Markets!
     
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    Wells Fargo bank teller admits stealing $185,000 from homeless customer who walked in with a bag of cash
    • Phelon Davis, 29, pleaded guilty after stealing more than $185,000 from a homeless man
    • Davis worked at a Washington DC Wells Fargo branch when the man, a street vendor, sought to deposit the money
    • The ex-bank teller devised a scheme to steal $185,440 from the man, who had no permanent address nor access to a computer or email
    • Davis pleaded guilty to interstate transportation of stolen property and under his plea agreement will need to pay the homeless man back


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4935550/Wells-Fargo-bank-bank-teller-stole-185-000-homeless.html#ixzz4uAq8LdOa
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Low Water, Lock Repairs Send Mississippi River Freights Soaring

    September 30, 2017 by Mike Schuler

    [​IMG]

    By Karl Plume CHICAGO, Sept 29 (Reuters) – Low river levels and back-ups at aging locks are wreaking havoc on export-bound grain barge shipments on the Mississippi River system just as U.S. farmers need to ramp up deliveries of their bumper harvest of corn and soybeans.

    Barge freight rates surged to a three-year high on Friday as a key stretch of the Mississippi River fell to near-record lows and as low water and emergency repair work on a 90-year-old lock and dam on the Ohio River delayed dozens of barge tows, traders and shippers said.

    Exporters, meanwhile, scrambled for supplies to meet shipping commitments out of the Gulf Coast amid a growing back-up of bulk cargo ships waiting to load soybeans, they said.

    The shipping woes were heaping more pain upon a U.S. farm sector already struggling with low commodity prices and a global grains glut, threatening sales just as rival South American exporters leave the stage.

    “The river’s a mess right now and I think it might be getting worse before it gets any better,” said a Minnesota-based soybean trader who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak with media.

    Shippers said they have been ordered to load barges with 9 or 9-1/2 foot drafts, instead of 12 feet or more normally, on the lower Mississippi River to keep them from grounding. As a result, each barge holds around 25 percent less grain so shippers need more barges, they added.

    The Mississippi River and its tributaries are a key pipeline for moving grain from Midwest farms to export terminals along the Gulf Coast, where about 60 percent of U.S. grain and soybean exports exit the country.

    Spot barges in the Memphis to Cairo, Illinois, market, an acutely low-water section of the river system, traded at 900 percent of basic tariff on Friday afternoon, up more than 525 points in the week, barge traders said.

    Spot rates were up 300 points on the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi river and nearly 200 points on the Illinois.

    Little rain is expected in the lower Mississippi River valley over the next week, said MDA Weather Services meteorologist Kenny Miller.

    “They’re going to go down, that’s near certain at this point,” he said of river levels.

    The latest National Weather Service forecast shows the river at Memphis could fall next week to just 4-1/2-feet above the all-time low in 1988.

    The shipping woes are also backing up grain supplies at river elevators, traders said.

    The spot basis at a river elevator in Davenport, Iowa, fell on Friday to 72 cents a bushel below Chicago Board of Trade November futures, the lowest since at least 2008, according to Reuters data.

    Meanwhile, buyers at Gulf terminals were scrambling for supplies to meet export commitments, sending spot CIF soybean premiums to a one-year high as more than 50 bulk vessels are waiting to load at the port, traders said.

    One large shipper paid 80 cents over futures for more than 300,000 bushels of soybeans this week, a three-year high. (Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago; Editing by David Gregorio)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/low-water-lock-repairs-send-mississippi-river-freights-soaring/
     
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    No One Would Choose to Live a Life Like This | SKWealthAcademy Vlog_006
    smartknowledgeu



    Published on Oct 2, 2017
    Please Like, Comment and Subscribe if you want NEW videos. Today, I discuss why so few of us ever question the pre-engineered currency, academic and corporate work systems into which we are herded, and raise the question if we would be much happier if we did.

    Follow me on snapchat and instagram: skwealthacademy
    We accept donations at patreon.com/skwealthacademy
    Coming Soon...skwealthacademy.com

    Download our SKWealthAcademy fact sheet here www.smartknowledgeu.com/pdf/SKWA.pdf

    our SKWealthAcademy brochure here: www.smartknowledgeu.com/pdf/smartknowledgewealthacademy.pdf

    Intro/Outro music provided by creative commons, license free track: Hiphop instrumental vol 4 by Mr. Aurimus
     
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    Spanish Stocks, Bonds, Euro Sink After Catalan Referendum Fiasco; S&P Futures Rise

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 2, 2017 6:43 AM


    While S&P futures were modestly higher, rising 0.1% in a quiet session in which China, South Korea, India and Hong Kong were closed for holidays, the Euro, Spanish stocks and bonds were broadly lower as Spain faces its worst constitutional crisis in years following a dramatic, violent crackdown on Sunday's Catalan independence referendum in which 89% of the voters wanted to secede from Spain.

    Spain’s IBEX benchmark index IBEX fell as much as 1.3% (down -1.0% latest), vs a 0.3% gain for Stoxx 600, after Catalan separatist leaders signaled they may be moving toward a unilateral declaration of independence as early as this week. Spanish banks were among the biggest fallers, especially the regionally focused Banco de Sabadell, CaixaBank, and Bankinter.

    [​IMG]


    The Euro was one of the worst performers among major currency peers after a the violence-marred vote in Catalonia spurred the regional government to press toward a unilateral declaration of independence.

    [​IMG]


    The tensions also had a clear impact in the bond market, with Spanish premiums climbing over comparable German debt. In addition to hitting Spain's IBEX index, Catalonia’s independence vote over the weekend amid scenes of unrest and violence has pressured the bonds of Spain and its restive province. Catalonia's 4.95% of 11/2020 dropped 0.35% Monday morning to 104.747 bid according to Bloomberg, its lowest since Aug. 2016. Spanish government bonds also selling off; 10Y yield has spiked 7bps to 1.68%, off initial high of 1.697%, the highest since July 14. The Bund/bono spread was wider by as much as 8bps.

    [​IMG]

    The tension in Spain “is not a game-changer for the euro, but it is likely to weigh - shifting the narrative away from the political optimism that followed Macron’s victory,” wrote RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Sue Trinh in Hong Kong, referring to President Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French election earlier this year.

    Elsewhere, European equities opened modestly higher after a mixed session for holiday-hit Asian markets, supported by mining sector following a stronger than expected official Chinese PMI and healthcare stocks; the DAX outperforms. Core fixed-income markets rally from lows with large block trade noted in 10y USTs. The pound dropped against the dollar for the sixth time in seven days amid concerns about the stability of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government.

    Asian stocks were mixed as China, Hong Kong, India and South Korean markets closed for public holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose less than 0.1% to 161.20. BHP Billiton Ltd. and miners gained after China reported better-than-expected manufacturing activity. Nissan Motor Co. slumped after suspending car registrations in Japan. Australia’s equity benchmark headed for its biggest daily gain since July after China, its top trading partner, reported an unexpectedly strong mfg PMI print, which rose to a 5 year high, and announced plans to cut the amount of required reserves banks must hold as reserves for certain loans. Nissan dropped as much as 5.4 percent, leading the decline in Japanese carmakers.

    “A stronger dollar may spur some fund outflows from the region, dampening any further rally in their equities,” Komsorn Prakobphol, an investment strategist at Tisco Financial Group Pcl, said by phone. “Market activities in the region will be very slow this week with the closure of some major markets, especially in China.”

    Elsewhere, the Eurodollar curve steepened and the dollar held an overnight bid as market continues to react to possibility of hawkish Fed appointment of Kevin Warsh. As Bloomberg notes, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index started off the last quarter of the year on a strong footing as the market focused on tax reforms in the U.S. and the possibility that the next Federal Reserve Chair comes from the hawkish camp. As bets rise on Kevin Warsh becoming the next Chair, traders discussed a July article in which he praised President Donald Trump’s policies in being able to “significantly improve the economy’s growth prospects”. In January, Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, argued that policy makers were too short-term focused and missed opportunities to raise rates by pursuing what he called a “ride-the-wind” policy.” Even if a hawkish Fed would come as a burden to Trump’s efforts to significantly boost economic growth, optimism among dollar bulls that his administration will finally deliver upon electoral pledges on tax reforms supported the greenback. The dollar gained versus all of its Group-of-10 peers while the index headed for a move above September highs (see chart). The euro was among the main underperformers, though traders discounted unrest in Catalonia as the key factor.

    Gold fell and West Texas oil halted gains above $51 a barrel after Baker Hughes data showed the U.S. rig count climbing to 750 last week. The pound dropped against the dollar for the sixth time in seven days amid concerns about the stability of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government.

    In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 2.36 percent, the highest in almost 12 weeks. Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.47 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 1.371 percent.

    Investors await U.S. manufacturing data for clues on the speed of economic recovery. "September manufacturing PMI data will draw the market’s attention today,” Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said in a note. “scheduled remarks from the Fed’s Kaplan could provide further clues as to the central bank’s thinking. At the end of the week attention will be drawn to the release of the September U.S. labor report.”

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European equities trade relatively flat. IBEX the notable underperformer following the fallout of this weekend’s Catalonian referendum
    • The USD continues to broadly out-muscle its major counterparts amid speculation of potential successors to current chair Yellen
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing, ECB’s Praet and Fed’s Kaplan
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.14% to 2,519.50
    • VIX Index increases 1% after four days of declines
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 389.06
    • MSCI Asia down 0.05% to 161.09
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.2% to 530.57
    • Nikkei up 0.2% to 20,400.78
    • Topix down 0.07% to 1,673.62
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,554.30
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,348.94
    • Sensex unchanged at 31,283.72
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 5,729.33
    • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,394.47
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.48%
    • Euro down 0.6% to $1.1741
    • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $56.63/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.818%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 6.6 bps to 1.67%
    • WTI crude down 0.5% to $51.42, Brent retreats 1.7% to $56.58
    • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,273.35
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 93.59
    Top Headline News:
    • Las Vegas Gunman Kills at Least 50, Wounds 200; Trump Tax Plans Punishes Multinationals; Brexit Said to Cost Banks $500m Each
    • Banks poised to channel hundreds—if not thousands—of employees out of the U.K. expect their Brexit bills to reach $500 million or more, according to people with knowledge of firms’ contingency planning
    • National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn said Sunday that the Trump administration’s proposed tax on offshore profits would be in the “10 percent range”
    • On the last page of a nine-page tax plan that calls for slashing business rates, President
      Trump and congressional Republicans proposed a little-noticed,
      brand-new tax that may hit companies like Apple Inc.and Pfizer Inc
    • Nordstrom has struggled to put together the financing for a buyout deal and may not be able to close the deal, the New York Post reports
    • U.K. leisure carrier Monarch filed for insolvency in Britain’s biggest-ever airline collapse, leaving the government to arrange the return of 110,000 tourists and marking the third failure of a major European operator in five months
    • Spain’s benchmark bonds fell to the lowest in almost three months after Catalan separatist leaders signaled they may be moving toward a unilateral declaration of independence
    • Catalans Signal They May Declare Independence Within a Week; Rajoy Says Catalan Ballot Is Void, Defending Police Crackdown
    • President Donald Trump’s admonishment of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for “wasting his time’’ in seeking negotiations with North Korea further highlighted differences within the administration on how best to get Kim Jong Un to halt his nuclear weapons program
    • On the verge of his scheduled visit to the hurricane-devastated U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, Trump suggested islanders struggling without basic services were lazy, and that the mayor of its largest city was a poor leader and a politically-motivated “ingrate”
    • U.S. manufacturing probably expanded solidly in September after the fastest growth in six years, as steady consumer spending and business investment fuel the nation’s factories. The Institute for Supply Management will issue the data today as well
    • Other American data this week include trade, durable goods and Friday’s September non-farm payrolls report, which may have less predictive power than usual for the economic outlook due to likely distortions from hurricanes that hit from late August
    • After a two-day pause the dollar is adding to gains from last week, when it benefited from speculation President Donald Trump could opt for a Fed boss who might pursue more aggressive policy tightening, not to mention details of the administration’s tax plans
    Asia-Pac equity markets were mostly higher on what was a holiday quietened day with China, Hong Kong South Korea and India all shut for holiday. Nonetheless, the positive momentum from last Friday’s US session where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended Q3 at fresh record levels rolled over to the region with ASX 200 (+0.8%) outperforming on broad based gains, while a PBoC announcement of targeted RRR cuts from 2018 and Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI at its highest since 2012 added to the optimism due to Australia’s heavy exposure. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was also positive, albeit to a lesser extent as participants digested the latest Tankan survey in which most components beat estimates including a decade-high headline Large Manufacturing Index, although Large All Industry Capex disappointed. 10yr JGBs were lower as they tracked the declines in USTs, while prices were also pressured alongside a positive risk tone and the absence of the BoJ in the market today. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 52.4 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7) Highest since 2012. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 55.4 (Prev. 53.4) Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.6)

    PBoC announced it would cut RRR for some banks that meet certain requirements for lending to small business and the agricultural sector beginning in 2018. The PBoC said that a wide majority of China's banks would be eligible for at least a 50bps cut but reiterated that it will implement a prudent and neutral monetary policy while keeping liquidity basically stable and that the announcement was a structural adjustment and not a shift in monetary policy. The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q3) printed at 22 vs. Exp. 18 (Prev. 17). Highest since 2007.

    Top Asia News
    • Trump Tells Tillerson North Korea Outreach a Waste of Time
    • GLP to Buy Gazeley for Approximately 2.4B Euros
    • Greenko Makes $2.1b Bid for Reliance’s Mumbai Power Business: ET
    • Capital to Buy $200m Stake in India’s InterGlobe Technology: ET
    • Indonesia Open to Extending Freeport’s IUPK Beyond October
    • TSMC Chairman Chang to Retire and Hand Reins to Co-CEOs in June
    • Noble Group Is Said to Get $400 Million Financing From Mercuria
    • Singapore REITs Heat Up as OCBC Taps Stock-Alternative Demand
    European equities initially traded marginally higher across the boar . The main outlier has been the Spanish IBEX (-1.0%) amid the growing concerns across Spain and the Catalonia region.
    Housing names outperform in the FTSE, as PM May has stated that the government will find an extra GBP 10bln for the help to buy
    scheme. Barratt Homes trades up around 4% and leads the UK index, closely followed by easyJet and Ryanair, both benefiting
    amid the pending administration from competitor, Monarch Airlines. Spanish bonds underperform amid the aforementioned political unrest across Spain. The Spanish 10y yield gapped up to trade through September’s highs, with 1.75% the next touted resistance, previously rejected in April and June. Bonds trade lower across the board, with the German 10y witnessing a similar upside gap, but finding continued resistance at 0.50%.

    Top European News
    • Banks’ Brexit Moving Costs Are Seen Topping $500 Million Each
    • Portuguese Premier Costa Boosted by Gains in Municipal Elections
    • ECB’s Georghadji Says It’s Too Soon to Declare Stimulus Success
    • JPMorgan’s Pinto to Hand Over Leadership of EMEA Operation: FT
    • CaixaBank, Sabadell Most Exposed on Catalan Instability: MS
    • Sampo Agrees to Buy 19.9% of Saxo Bank for EU265 Mln
    • Luxury Sector Expected to See Further M&A Deals, HSBC Says
    • Why Austria May Elect the World’s Youngest Leader: QuickTake Q&A
    • Euro Factories Add Jobs in Struggle to Keep Up With Order Boom
    In currencies, the EUR saw selling pressure amid the political unrest seen in Catalonia over the weekend. Further weight has been put on EUR, with US rates now gaining significantly vs. Germany. Despite the bearish concerns for EUR/USD, last week’s lows have not been tested, with Asian trade limited amid various holidays. EUR/USD longs continue to get squeezed, with the pair trading through the long-term trendline support. A break of the August 1.1660 low could further trigger stops, aiding the bearish pressure. The DXY has seen a bid through the session, reacting to the shortlist for the pending Fed Chair position being all but declared. Yellen, Powell, Cohn and Warsh have all been interviewed, with markets indicating that President Trump could sway toward a more hawkish head. A slowdown ahead of September’s highs has seen the current bullish momentum run out of steam, with a break through 93.66 set to be the next target for greenback bulls. Elsewhere, GBP has seen some selling pressure this morning amid an uncertain political backdrop and disappointing data. More specifically, UK manufacturing PMI printed at 55.9 below the expected 56.4 which added to the downbeat sentiment amid weekend reports suggesting a lack of unity in PM May’s Cabinet. This has subsequently lead to some supporters of May calling for her to dismiss Foreign Secretary Johnson. Furthermore, this also comes ahead of this week’s Conservative Party conference which could also help to highlight the divisions in the party.

    In commodities, price action has been subdued, finding a slow start to the week as a result of the lack of Asian trade. Forecasts for US shale oil growth and uncertainty around China’s crude imports could possibly add to the recent bullish pressure that has been witnessed across oil markets. Precious Metals continue to be led by the unwind in Gold, as markets are seemingly unwinding geopolitical concerns. Gold trades back inside the March – August range, as silver looks to break through 16.50. Iraq says oil exports average for September was 3.24mln bpd. Libya's Sharara Oil Field has been closed since late yesterday, according to engineers. Libya's NOC say that they are making efforts to restore production at their Sharara Oil Field and that there are currently no plans to declare a force majeure at the site.

    Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got the September ISM manufacturing print as well as the final September manufacturing PMI and August construction spending readings.

    US Event Calendar
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53, prior 53
    • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 58, prior 58.8; Prices Paid, est. 63.5, prior 62; New Orders, prior 60.3; Employment, prior 59.9
    • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.6%
    • 2pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in El Paso
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Welcome to October and Q4. It's another busy week ahead with Payrolls to look forward to on Friday, although the report is likely to be blown apart by the recent two hurricanes. Continuing to work backwards on the main highlights of the week, Thursday sees the latest ECB minutes and Wednesday the services PMIs/ISM. We also have the UK Conservative Party conference over the next few days which will likely have lots of conflicting headlines on Brexit. Don’t forget that the US budget discussion headlines will never be too far away from your screens. Today sees the crucial manufacturing PMIs/ISMs across the globe. Given how correlated they've been to equity performance they are a vital report for the immediate direction of markets. Over the weekend China has already seen a stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI (52.4 vs 51.6 expected and 51.7 last month). This is one of the lower readings in the world at the moment but is still at 5 and a half year highs. The private Caixin equivalent was lower though (51 vs 51.5 expected) with this report having a bias towards smaller companies and exporters. The official non-manufacturing PMI was higher though (55.4 vs 53.4 last month). Staying with China, the PBoC have also announced a targeted RRR cut for some banks in 2018. DB's Zhiwei Zhang thinks this is as much to offset tightening from macro prudential regulation. China is on holidays this week alongside a few other Asian markets so there is no immediate local reaction, although the Aussie ASX is +0.91% higher seemingly on the China news. Elsewhere the Nikkei is +0.14%, the Euro is -0.34% (see below on Catalonia) and 10 year JGBs and USTs are up 1.5bp and 2bps respectively following on from the sell-off in the latter half of Friday on the Warsh news.

    The big news over the weekend was probably the strange and disturbing images in Spain as the "illegal" independence referendum took place to chaotic and sometimes violent scenes. The wires are reporting yesterday's events as a PR disaster for Spanish PM Rajoy so how he responds will be important. The Catalan government spokesman Jordon Turull has said that around 2 million out of 2.3 million voted for independence (around 5 million eligible to vote). It seems there is a good chance they will declare independence over the next few days which in turn could force Mr Rajoy to use constitutional laws and revoke Catalonia's autonomy. As a minimum Mr Rajoy's minority government is going to be severely tested by this constitutional nightmare. The realistic end game is talks, compromise and perhaps more money transferred between Madrid and the Catalonians. However such talks are bound to be more fraught now.

    While its hard to see what the immediate macro spill overs could be, its another example that politics is getting more extreme across the world. Even in a year where the edge has been taken off populism by strong growth, we've still seen the establishment defeated in France, the AfD do better than expected in Germany, the meteoric rise of the hard left Jeremy Corbyn from the political ashes in the UK, the S5M still neck and neck in the Italian polls and now all the passions behind this vote in Spain. Extreme politics continues to bubble under the surface. Weaker economic times ahead might tip it back into the mainstream at some point.

    Talking of politics, before this the big story on Friday was news that Mr Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had met with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (amongst others - see below) to discuss nominating him as the next Fed Chair. The President himself then suggesting late on Friday that a decision could be made in the next 2-3 weeks which is accelerated relative to previous expectations. Warsh is now seemingly one of four front-running candidates (including Yellen, Powell and Cohn) and he would likely be the most market moving as he has been subtly critical of the Fed in recent times. As DB's Peter Hooper pointed out on Friday, one thread of his criticism has been over the size of the Fed's balance sheet, suggesting that it poses risk of "fiscal dominance" – potential for fiscal policy to drive monetary policy decisions. Peter also reminds us that one of his clearest comments on monetary policy came in a January article in the WSJ , where he said: "..the Fed should establish an inflation objective of around 1% to 2%, with a band of acceptable outcomes. The current 2.0% inflation target offers false precision.” So with inflation currently in the middle of this range, there is more reason to continue raising rates on this line of thinking. Whether he would be more mainstream if brought into this role is open to conjecture but by him being in the race the prospect of more hawkish policy increases. He would also be expected to be more dovish on financial regulation and it was therefore understandable that higher yields and looser regulation led to Banks being one of the better performers in the US on Friday. Our take is that he is the favourite if Mr Trump sees deregulation as the most important criteria and maybe him being hawkish on rates might take the pressure of the credibility issue of Mr Trump appointing someone who will be seen as someone who would keep rates too low for too long on a political whim.

    Before Warsh turned the session round, bonds were enjoying some respite from the recent sell-off after the US PCE miss (0.1% vs 0.2% MoM expected). 10 year Treasuries were trading at around 2.30% after PCE, a bps or so lower on the day and 6bps off the post-tax reform euphoria highs. However we closed at 2.334% after the Warsh news and this morning in Asia we're trading at 2.353% as we type. This followed a risk-on end to the quarter with the S&P 500 climbing +0.37% on Friday, the Dax +0.98%, and the FTSE and CAC both +0.68%. The peripherals mildly underperformed. 10 years Bunds were down -1.5bps mostly following the inflation miss rather than the Warsh news. All other European 10yrs Govvies were around 1-3bps lower.

    Over the course of the week it did feel like some of the momentum was back for the bond bears with the Warsh news coming in the week of more information than perhaps expected on the Republican's tax plans. The view of our rates strategists are that the chance of unfunded tax cuts has risen after last week and as such their should be some justifiable move to higher yields. On the tax plan, DB's Luzzetti, Ryan & Weidner published a detailed piece late on Friday (Link) explaining their current thoughts and going into detail on the plans as we know them so far and the legislative challenges ahead. Despite the high level of uncertainly, they use the Fed’s model of the US economy to assess the macroeconomic implications of the Republican tax plan. Assuming tax cuts are enacted in Q1 2018, the full tax plan would lift growth by about 0.4pp by end-2018 and cause the Fed to undertake nearly two additional rate hikes by end-2019. A more modest tax plan in line with our expectations would lift 2018 growth by 0.2pp and cause the Fed to undertake almost one additional rate hike by end-2019. Note that the overall profile of hikes on this model are way above current market expectations.

    Before the performance review we move on to this week’s full calendar now. In terms of data, the focus this morning in Europe will be on the final revisions to the September manufacturing PMIs which will also include a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. Also due out is the August unemployment rate for the Euro area. Over in the US this afternoon we’ve got the September ISM manufacturing print as well as the final September manufacturing PMI and August construction spending readings. Tuesday looks to be a fairly quiet day for data with Japan consumer confidence, Euro area PPI and US vehicle sales data the only releases of note. Wednesday kicks off in Japan with the September Nikkei services and composite PMIs. In Europe we’ll receive the remaining September PMIs (services and composite) along with the latest retail sales data for the Euro area. The focus in the US on Wednesday will likely be on the September ADP employment print and ISM non-manufacturing. The final services and composite PMIs are also due. Turning to Thursday, with no data of note in Europe the focus across the pond in the US will be on the latest weekly initial jobless claims print, August trade balance, August factory orders and the final durable and capital goods order revisions for August. We finish the week in Europe on Friday with factory orders data in Germany, trade data in France and house prices data in the UK. The big focus on Friday however will be in the US with the September employment report due out including nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit data for August round out the releases.

    Onto other events, Today sees the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond will address the Conservative Party Conference. In Japan, the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey of large manufacturers will be out. In the US, the Fed’s Kaplan will speak. Then onto Tuesday, there will be numerous speakers at the Conservative Party conference, including: UK home secretary Rudd, Trade secretary Fox, Brexit secretary Davis and Foreign secretary Johnson. Then the BOE will publish its record of the Financial policy committee. Over in the US, the Fed’s Powell will speak on regulatory reform. Turning to Wednesday, the EU parliament will vote on a non-binding Brexit resolution, while Mrs Yellen will give opening remarks at a Community banking conference in the US. Then onto Thursday, the ECB’s Praet and Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt and the ECB’s governing council members Liikanen and Jazbec will speak. Following on, the ECB will also publish accounts of its September meeting. In the UK, BOE’s Chief economist Haldane will speak on “Central banks engagement with society”. Over in the US, there are four Fed speakers, including: Williams, Harker, Powell and George. Finally, on Friday, BOE’s Chief economist Haldane speaks on “Trust in institutions”. In the US, we round out the week with three more Fed speakers, including: Bostic, Dudley and Kaplan.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ter-catalan-referendum-fiasco-sp-futures-rise
     
  35. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  36. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: October 2

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 2, 2017 7:57 AM

    • At least 50 dead in Las Vegas shooting (Reuters)
    • Spanish PM faces crisis after violent secession vote in Catalonia (Reuters)
    • Trump Rejects Dialogue With North Korea (WSJ)
    • HP Enterprise let Russia scrutinize cyberdefense system used by Pentagon (Reuters)
    • Automakers Plan Electric Car Blitz as Tesla Burns Billions (BBG)
    • Brent falls to below $56 on signs of higher output (Reuters)
    • The Man Who Exposed College Basketball (WSJ)
    • China's bitcoin market alive and well as traders defy crackdown (Reuters)
    • Trump Plan Aims New Foreign Tax at Multinationals (BBG)
    • Two women deny murdering North Korean leader's half-brother (Reuters)
    • Google Plans to Help News Publishers Increase Subscriptions (WSJ)
    • Russia's central bank says lenders Otkritie and B&N Bank may merge: TASS (Reuters)
    • Monarch Files for Insolvency in U.K.'s Biggest Airline Failure (BBG)
    • Capitalism is the only way, UK finance minister says in challenge to Labour (Reuters)
    • At the Center of the Equifax Mess: Its Top Lawyer (WSJ)
    • Police questioned suspect in Marseille knife killings prior to attack (Reuters)
    • ISIS Reportedly Calls for Attacks on N.Y. Jewish Museum Over Kurdish Exhibit (Haaretz)
    • For some elderly Americans, mortgage rules herald harder struggle (Reuters)
    • Hall, Rosbash, Young Win Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (BBG)
    • How we tick: U.S. 'body clock' scientists win Nobel medicine prize (Reuters)
    • Would You Buy 7 Percent Bonds From This Guy? (BBG)
    • Britain will lobby U.S., Canada over Bombardier dispute: Hammond (Reuters)
    • Hudson River Trading Is Exploring Possible Deal to Buy Sun Trading (WSJ)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Google Inc said it will end this week its decade-old "first click free" policy that required news websites to give readers free access to articles from Google's search results. on.wsj.com/2hGUh4G

    - Monarch Airlines announced it has entered into administration, saying that as of Oct. 2, all its flights have been canceled and it is no longer operating. on.wsj.com/2hGjOv0

    - Rio Tinto Ltd said it had completed a pilot run spanning nearly 62 miles with trains operated by individuals in an air-conditioned control room hundreds of miles away. on.wsj.com/2hGo9hG

    - Global Logistic Properties Ltd on Monday announced plans to acquire a portfolio of assets in Europe for 2.4 billion euros ($2.82 billion). on.wsj.com/2hGGew7

    - Oracle Corp co-founder Larry Ellison took aim at Amazon Inc's cloud-computing division, touting his company's newest database technology that he claimed his rival can't match. on.wsj.com/2hGycDx


    FT

    Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempt to showcase a new youth-friendly policy agenda at the Conservative party conference on Sunday was overshadowed by a row over Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions and criticisms of her flagship housing scheme and tuition fee proposals.

    Renters paid about 54 billion pounds ($72.30 billion) to buy-to-let investors across the UK over the 12 months to the end of June, more than double the amount of mortgage interest paid to banks by homeowners, according to new figures by the estate agency group Savills.

    Legal action by BT Group Plc and Three threatens to derail Britain’s “golden opportunity” to take a lead in the race to launch 5G next-generation mobile services, chief executive of UK telecoms regulator Ofcom Sharon White wrote in the Financial Times on Sunday.

    The Catalan government said more than 2 million people had cast a ballot in a banned referendum to leave Spain on Sunday and 90 percent of them had voted in favour of independence.


    NYT

    - Under intense scrutiny from federal investigators and the public, Facebook Inc said on Sunday that it planned to turn over more than 3,000 Russian-linked advertisements to congressional investigators on Monday. nyti.ms/2x9KL16

    - S. I. Newhouse Jr., who as the owner of magazines like the New Yorker, Vogue, Vanity Fair and Architectural Digest wielded vast influence over American culture, fashion and social taste, died on Sunday at his home in Manhattan at the age of 89. nyti.ms/2xPR9cB

    - U.S. President Donald Trump undercut his own secretary of state on Sunday, calling his effort to open lines of communication with North Korea a waste of time, and seeming to rule out a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear-edged confrontation with Pyongyang. nyti.ms/2g2g9UG

    - The Chinese government has been clamping down on virtual currency activity at the same time that hundreds of thousands of Japanese have thrown themselves into Bitcoin trading, making Japan's main Bitcoin exchange, bitFlyer, the largest in the world in recent weeks by some methods of counting. nyti.ms/2xRnfV7

    - Alphabet Inc's Google is working on new tools that could help news organizations bolster their subscription businesses. nyti.ms/2yhQaTN


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Sears Canada Inc will ask the Ontario Superior Court on Wednesday to approve a number of sales, including some that would result in 11 more stores closing and 1,200 more employees losing their jobs after the outlets are liquidated. tgam.ca/2fDeWCt

    ** SemGroup Corp, the U.S. company known for transporting, storage and processing oil and gas, could jettison its asphalt business in Mexico as it looks to expand its footprint in Alberta, British Columbia with a C$500 million ($400 million) investment. tgam.ca/2fDaMur

    ** Alberta and Ontario raised their mandatory minimum hourly wage over the weekend, pay increases aimed at reaching C$15 an hour. Alberta's minimum rate went up by C$1.40 to C$13.60 on Sunday, while Ontario's level rose by 20 cents to C$11.60. tgam.ca/2fDf4Sn

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Loblaw Companies Ltd said that the company is exploring the possibility of offering grocery home delivery one day and has "engaged" a number of e-commerce innovators around the world, including Instacart. bit.ly/2fDa7Jt

    ** Housing affordability in Canada hit the worst level in 27 years in the second quarter of this year, according to a Royal Bank of Canada report. The Toronto area was the hardest hit, where RBC says affordability declined the most compared to the previous year. bit.ly/2fD9W0L

    ** Two men are dead after a shooting outside of a nightclub in downtown Toronto early Sunday morning. Police say they were called to the scene shortly after 3 am. bit.ly/2fCthiC


    Britain

    The Times

    The Financial Reporting Council has come under renewed pressure over alleged conflicts of interest after it emerged that a former KPMG partner who works for the regulator had driven through a change in the rules that may later have helped to clear his erstwhile employer over the HBOS audit. bit.ly/2xIuwaC

    Chancellor Philip Hammond should enhance tax breaks for investment to bolster confidence among businesses at a time when optimism about the future is falling, the Institute of Directors has claimed. bit.ly/2xIJ0aj

    The Guardian

    UK's largest supplier of supermarket chicken 2 Sisters Food Group has suspended production at one of its main processing plants after undercover filming revealed poor hygiene standards and food safety records being altered. bit.ly/2xK2efY

    Virgin Group founder Richard Branson will invest in a Red Sea project that aims to turn 50 Saudi Arabian islands into luxury tourism destinations, the Saudi government announced on Sunday. bit.ly/2xIIZn3

    The Telegraph

    The travel industry is braced for widespread chaos as the future of Monarch Airlines hangs in the balance. The Civil Aviation Authority refused to confirm whether it would grant the budget holiday provider a permanent tour operator licence as a temporary one neared expiry at midnight on Sunday. bit.ly/2xJq3V6

    Two-thirds of consumers in UK say they won't share their financial data with a third party, in a blow to the growing push towards so-called 'open banking', according to a survey of more than 2,000 people by consultant Accenture. bit.ly/2xIKXDF

    Sky News

    International Consolidated Airlines Group, parent company of British Airways, has expressed an interest in acquiring some of Monarch Airlines' take-off and landing slots, fleet and crew - raising hopes that some jobs can be salvaged if UK's fifth-biggest airline does collapse into administration. bit.ly/2xIyBM0

    Ruth Davidson has dismissed suggestions Jeremy Corbyn is a dead cert to be the next Prime Minister, telling the Conservative party conference: "He hasn't even won a raffle". bit.ly/2xJvLGk

    The Independent

    Liam Fox has launched an outspoken attack on the European Union, saying it will risk harming its own people if it refuses to enter talks on a post-Brexit trade deal within weeks. ind.pn/2xJDapu

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-02/frontrunning-october-2
     
  37. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Key Events In The Coming Week: A Negative Payrolls Number And Non-stop Fed Speakers

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 2, 2017 8:56 AM

    While central banks step away from the spotlight, as does Asian data and markets with China and South Korea both taking a weeklong break, there will be a bevy of central bank speakers to "explain" what is going on while it will be a busy week data wise, with the US employment trade balance report due this week, PMI and retail sales in Euro area, as well as PMI and house prices in UK. The key central bank events include the Australia RBA board meeting, ECB minutes,Yellen and Fed member speeches. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in India, Poland and Romania.

    Key focus: the busy calendar ahead for US

    Next week attention will be on the US employment report, trade balance and durable goods orders. Forecasts for nonfarm payrolls (due Friday) are scattered with many expecting a big drop - many predict an outright negative payrolls print - as Hurricane Irma hit right at the start of the survey week. Otherwise, incoming data remains supportive of job gains. ADP (Wed) will likely report private payrolls increased by 73k. The ISM manufacturing index (Mon) is expected to dip to 58.0 from 58.8, supported by better-than-expected readings from regional surveys and ISM non-manufacturing to rise to 55.5 in September from 55.3.


    [​IMG]


    Looking aroudn the world, focus will fall on the RBA meeting, ECB minutes and Fed speakers

    The RBA board meets on Tuesday and we are not expecting any major evolution of wording despite a more upbeat tone from recent RBA communication. While policy normalization is on the agenda for next year, the Bank continues to stress patience in shifting from a neutral stance. We also have ECB board minutes from its September meeting on Thursday. The expected path for monetary policy is a key driver for the euro dollar and this constraints the ECB's policy options. In US, Chair Yellen speaks at St. Louis Fed conference on Community Banking on Wednesday.

    Also of note, according to press reports, the ruling LDP party in Japan plans to move ahead with raising the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October 2019. This would be the third time Japan has undercut efforts to create normal 2% inflation by raising the consumption tax. As we saw in 1997, timing is critical. Setting a fixed date risks shocking the economy at a time of vulnerability. As we saw in 2014, the tax increase is unlikely to be offset by enough spending increases to prevent a sharp shock to growth.

    [​IMG]

    DB's Jim Reid breaks down the key events on a daily basis:
    • In terms of data, the focus this morning in Europe will be on the final revisions to the September manufacturing PMIs which will also include a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. Also due out is the August unemployment rate for the Euro area. Over in the US this afternoon we’ve got the September ISM manufacturing print as well as the final September manufacturing PMI and August construction spending readings.
    • Tuesday looks to be a fairly quiet day for data with Japan consumer confidence, Euro area PPI and US vehicle sales data the only releases of note.
    • Wednesday kicks off in Japan with the September Nikkei services and composite PMIs. In Europe we’ll receive the remaining September PMIs (services and composite) along with the latest retail sales data for the Euro area. The focus in the US on Wednesday will likely be on the September ADP employment print and ISM non-manufacturing. The final services and composite PMIs are also due.
    • Turning to Thursday, with no data of note in Europe the focus across the pond in the US will be on the latest weekly initial jobless claims print, August trade balance, August factory orders and the final durable and capital goods order revisions for August.
    • We finish the week in Europe on Friday with factory orders data in Germany, trade data in France and house prices data in the UK. The big focus on Friday however will be in the US with the September employment report due out including nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit data for August round out the releases.
    Onto other events:
    • Today sees the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond will address the Conservative Party Conference. In Japan, the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey of large manufacturers will be out. In the US, the Fed’s Kaplan will speak.
    • Then onto Tuesday, there will be numerous speakers at the Conservative Party conference, including: UK home secretary Rudd, Trade secretary Fox, Brexit secretary Davis and Foreign secretary Johnson. Then the BOE will publish its record of the Financial policy committee. Over in the US, the Fed’s Powell will speak on regulatory reform.
    • Turning to Wednesday, the EU parliament will vote on a non-binding Brexit resolution, while Mrs Yellen will give opening remarks at a Community banking conference in the US.
    • Then onto Thursday, the ECB’s Praet and Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt and the ECB’s governing council members Liikanen and Jazbec will speak. Following on, the ECB will also publish accounts of its September meeting. In the UK, BOE’s Chief economist Haldane will speak on “Central banks engagement with society”. Over in the US, there are four Fed speakers, including: Williams, Harker, Powell and George.
    • Finally, on Friday, BOE’s Chief economist Haldane speaks on “Trust in institutions”. In the US, we round out the week with three more Fed speakers, including: Bostic, Dudley and Kaplan.
    Finally, here is Goldman's Jan Hatzius with a focus only on the US alongside consensus expectations:

    The key economic releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on financial regulatory reform by Fed Governor Powell on Tuesday.

    Monday, October 2
    • 09:45 AM Markit US Manufacturing PMI, September (consensus 53.0, last 53.0)
    • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, September (GS 59.0, consensus 58.0, last 58.8): Regional manufacturing surveys strengthened on net in September, with notable gains in the Richmond Fed, Philly Fed, Dallas Fed, and Chicago PMI surveys. Our manufacturing survey tracker moved up 1.3pt to 59.4 in September. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to edge up 0.2pt to 59.0, reflecting firmer manufacturing sector activity, partly offset by disruptions from the recent hurricanes.
    • 10:00 AM Construction spending, August (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.6%): We expect construction spending to strengthen 0.5% in August following a 0.6% decline in the July report, reflecting an expected rebound in single-family construction.
    • 02:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak in a moderated Q&A session in El Paso, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected.
    Tuesday, October 3
    • 08:30 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on regulatory reform at the George Washington University. Audience Q&A is not expected.
    • 4:00 PM Total vehicle sales, September (GS 17.2mn, consensus 17.0mn, last 16.0mn): Domestic vehicle sales, September (GS 13.8, consensus 12.7mn, last 12.5mn)
    Wednesday, October 4
    • 8:15 AM ADP employment report, September (GS +130k, consensus +143k, last +237k): We expect a 130k increase in ADP payroll employment in September, reflecting a drag from the various financial and economic indicators used in ADP's model. However, we do not expect the hurricanes to meaningfully impact the report. While we believe the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report, we find that large ADP surprises vs. consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with nonfarm payroll surprises.
    • 09:45 AM: Markit US Services PMI, September (consensus 55.1, last 55.1)
    • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, September (GS 55.7, consensus 55.5, last 55.3): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to rebound 0.4pt to 55.7, despite a modest drag from hurricane effects. Regional non-manufacturing surveys were mixed in September, with deterioration in the NY Fed and Dallas Fed surveys, a flat Richmond Fed reading, and a moderate gain in the Philly Fed survey. Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker ticked down 0.1pt to 56.5 in September.
    • 03:00 PM St Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give welcoming remarks at a conference on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Audience Q&A is not expected.
    • 03:15 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give brief welcoming remarks at a conference on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Audience Q&A is not expected.
    Thursday, October 5
    • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 30 (GS 265k, consensus 263k, last 272k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 23 (consensus 1,949k, last 1,934k)
    • 08:30 AM Trade balance, August (GS -$43.0bn, consensus -$42.7bn, last -$43.7bn): We estimate the trade deficit narrowed by $0.7bn in August. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a smaller goods trade deficit, but we expect this to be offset by a modest deterioration in the services trade balance.
    • 09:10 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Powell will give a speech on treasury markets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Audience Q&A is expected.
      09:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give the keynote speech at a conference on community banking at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    • 09:30 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will give a speech at the Investing in America’s Workforce Capstone Conference in Austin. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 10:00 AM Factory orders, August (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.0%, last -3.3%); Durable goods orders, August final (last +1.7%); Durable goods orders ex transportation, August final (last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, August final (last +0.9%); Core capital goods shipments, August final (last +0.7%): We estimate factory orders increased 1.1% in August following a 3.3 % decline in July. Core measures in the August durable goods report were strong, with solid growth in core capital goods orders and shipments.
    • 04:30 PM Kansas City President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech at the Investing in America’s Workforce Capstone Conference in Austin.
    Friday, October 6
    • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, September (GS +50k, consensus +85k, last +156k); Private payroll employment, September (GS +40k, consensus +73k, last +165k); Average hourly earnings (mom), September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), September (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.5%); Unemployment rate, September (GS 4.5%, consensus 4.4%, last 4.4%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 50k in September, following a 156k increase in August and compared to three- and six-month moving averages of 185k and 160k, respectively. Our forecast reflects a large drag from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which we estimate could temporarily reduce the level of payroll employment by 125k. FEMA major disaster declarations for these storms covered over 10% of the US population, and over 6.5 million Floridians were without power in the middle of the payroll survey week. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates that the hurricanes will have both direct and indirect effects on employment. However, we believe the underlying pace of job growth remains firm, as jobless claims remain very low outside of hurricane-affected regions. We estimate the unemployment rate rose a tenth to 4.5%, reflecting temporary hurricane effects. The August unemployment rate barely rounded down (at 4.442%), and in the month after Hurricane Katrina, there was a sharp increase in Louisiana unemployment. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.4% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting positive calendar effects.
    • 09:15 Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give a speech at the Investing in America’s Workforce Capstone Conference in Austin.
    • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, August final (consensus 1.0%, last 1.0%)
    • 11:45 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the International Economic Conference in Montreal.
    • 12:15 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech at an event organized by the Council for Economic Education. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 12:45 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at the Investing in America’s Workforce Capstone Conference in Austin.
    • 01:50 PM St Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech titled “Standard of Living Across US Metropolitan Statistical Areas” at the Bi-State Development Annual Luncheon in St. Louis.
    • 03:00 PM Consumer credit, August (consensus $15.5bn, last $18.5bn)
    Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ive-payrolls-number-and-non-stop-fed-speakers
     
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    TVR [#410] 10-02-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: 1987
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Oct 2, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: October-03-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Technically gold and silver are bearish and can fall further. Copper looks bearish. The Euro/usd will see another wave of sell off if it trades below 1.1682 today. The US dollar looks strong due to European woes. Lack of Chinese influence can be seen on industrial metals and silver. Fundamentals of the global economy are stronger than ever before. Japan, Europe, China and the USA have all reported strong manufacturing growth numbers.
     

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