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Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Super-rich tax secrets at risk after cyber-attack: Some of the world's wealthiest people are braced for their financial details to be leaked after hackers target offshore firm in Bermuda
    • Bermuda-based firm Appleby has warned its clients their details may be exposed
    • The world's richest people use the law firm and they are now bracing themselves
    • They are now seeking advice from lawyers as their tax benefits could be released


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5014677/World-s-richest-people-braced-details-leaked.html#ixzz4wWnlQ1IU
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    World War E Is Here - Mike Maloney
    GoldSilver (w/ Mike Maloney)



    Published on Oct 24, 2017
    As cyberattacks increase, Mike is worried about keeping cash in the bank. If the U.S government, Equifax, and power plants can get hacked, our banks are probably next. So what money can't be hacked? Mike discusses in this new video. See more about the consequences of World War E in Mike's presentation, The Everything Bubble: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2...
    If you enjoyed watching this video, be sure to pick up a free copy of Mike's bestselling book, Guide to Investing in Gold & Silver: https://goldsilver.com/buy-online/inv...
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Barely Lower
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold fell $6.70 to $1271.10 at about 8:45AM EST, but it then chopped up to as high as $1279.80 in early afternoon trade and ended with a loss of just 0.03%. Silver rose to as high as $17.001 and ended with a loss of 0.18%.
     
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    Traders Paralyzed, Markets Flat Ahead Of Today's Main Event: The ECB's Taper Announcement

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 26, 2017 7:06 AM


    US equity futures and Asian shares are flat this morning with European shares treading water ahead of the ECB's policy meeting in which it’s expected to announce a tapering to its €60bn in monthly QE. On this busiest day of Q3 earnings season, companies set to report earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel, while we also get data on jobless claims and wholesale inventories.

    In a pre-ECB appetizer, Sweden and Norway’s central banks both kept their interest rates on hold as they too look forward to see what the ECB does first. Their currencies barely budged though as attention remained firmly on a euro rose to a 1-week high of $1.1820, up 12.5% for the year, before hitting an air pocket ahead of the European open.

    Ahead of today's main event, traders waited for formal confirmation from the ECB that will take its biggest step yet in unwinding years of loose monetary policy before committing capital and volumes were abysmal and price action has been tentative. In terms of sector specific moves, performance is relatively mixed with a bulk of the outliers coming in the form of individual companies given we are in the thick of earnings season.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed with bank shares underperforming after earnings reports from Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc. Spanish shares rebounded sharply following a Bloomberg report that instead of Independence, Catalonia may seek election instead. In any case, Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont will address the regional parliament on Thursday afternoon.

    Notable movers include Barclays (-5.9%), Bayer (-3.4%), AB Inbev (-2.6%), Deutsche Bank (-2.03%, STMicroelectronics (+6.4%). Typically tight and light trade in Bunds ahead of an ECB meeting, and especially one that is widely expected to herald a change in policy. The 10 year German bond briefly attempted to trade higher off the Eurex open, but swiftly reversed course and revisited sub-161.00 territory (ie yield staying close, albeit just below 0.5%). Volume so far only a little more than 100k lots, with many market participants sitting tight until the ECB reveals its QE hand amidst a range of potential tapering options and opinions. Gilts largely side-lined, but firmer for choice having underperformed yesterday on UK data that supports near term tightening (November BoE hike prospects up to between 80-90% as a result). Some respite for US Treasuries also, after recent bear steepening, on a Wall Street downturn and reports that dove Yellen may yet be reappointed by President Trump for a further term.

    Eurozone bonds trade in tight ranges: the German curve has flattened as the long-end outperforms. In the US, Treasuries rebound, with 10Y yields pulling back from yesterday’s seven-month high, declining to 2.42%, the level that sparked yesterday's stop loss driven selloff. SEK and NOK were slightly weaker versus EUR after both Riksbank and Norges Bank left policy unchanged as expected while the Turkish Lira is among the biggest losers in EM ahead of Turkey’s central bank decision. European stocks slightly stronger, with Italian equities leading regional gains. WTI extends gain above $52/bbl as Saudi Arabia’s crown prince backs extending OPEC production cuts beyond March 2018. The pound fell and South Africa’s rand extended its decline amid worries
    of a rating downgrade after the country’s finance minister on Wednesday
    signaled more borrowing. West Texas crude slipped a second day.

    As a reminder, the ECB is expected to announce a reduction in the size of its monthly bond buying at its policy meeting. Any deviation from the expected nine-month extension of quantitative easing at around 30 billion euros a month, could impact markets, in particular the euro and German bunds.



    [​IMG]

    In Asia, despite an overall muted tone to trading, the Nikkei 225 resumed its winning ways (+0.2%) after ending the longest stretch of gains on record, dismissing a strong yen, and traded positive with Daiwa Securities and Fanuc among the biggest gainers after encouraging earnings. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were mixed ahead of updates from the blue-chip financials with the mainland lifted after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC. The Kospi underperformed even as data showed South Korea’s economic growth picked up more than expected in the third quarter. China began marketing its first sovereign dollar bonds since 2004 on the heels of the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with early mild upside seen alongside a rebound in USTs, while today’s 2yr JGB auction failed to inspire demand despite stronger than prior results as price action conformed to the mundane tone seen across overnight asset classes.

    While the bond rout eased in Europe and the US, China’s 10Y sov bond briefly rose to the highest in three years amid concerns over the nation’s deleveraging campaign, although it pared the advance to stay little changed at 3.79% as of close in Shanghai after surging 6bps on Wednesday in the biggest jump since May. Bond strategists point to 4% as next level to watch for 10-year yield, as sentiment is fragile and market tends to be moved by negative news.

    In rates, the yield on 10Y Treasuries fell 1bp to 2.42%; Germany’s 10Y yield decreased 2 bps to 0.47%.

    In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude dipped less than 0.05 percent to $52.17 a barrel. Gold advanced less than 0.05 percent to $1,277.56 an ounce. Copper fell 0.4 percent to $6,984.50 per metric ton, the biggest fall in more than a week.

    Bulletin Headline Summaary from RanSquawk
    • European equity markets subdued, as eyes on Draghi
    • The range bound theme has been evident across markets, with FX also seeing light trade
    • Looking ahead, the highlight will be the ECB and Draghi press conference, followed by US trade data and weekly jobs
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.03% to 2,557.75
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.04% to 387.27
    • MSCI Asia down 0.1% to 166.77
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.2% to 546.50
    • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,739.78
    • Topix up 0.1% to 1,753.90
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,202.38
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,407.57
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 33,132.34
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,916.30
    • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,480.63
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.476%
    • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1817
    • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.33/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.77%
    • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.647%
    • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.33/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,277.96
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 93.67
    Top Overnight News
    • President Donald Trump said he’s thinking about giving Janet Yellen another term as U.S. Federal Reserve chair as he balances the desire to put his stamp on the central bank with the risk of changing leadership amid a stock market rally.
    • A federal judge rejected a bid by Democratic state officials to temporarily block the White House from ending so-called cost-sharing reduction payments to health insurers under the Affordable Care Act.
    • To make a fair deal with Nafta you have to ’terminate’ it, Trump says
    • Sweden’s Riksbank keeps key rate at -0.50%, says still sees first rate hike in mid-2018
    • Norges Bank keeps deposit rate at 0.50%, says balance of economic risks unchanged since September
    • Catalonia may call regional elections this week, rather than declaring independence from Spain
    • Italy passes new law that sets stage for general elections in 1H 2018
    • Saudi’s crown prince says “of course” he wanted to extend the cuts into 2018; there’s a need to “continue stabilizing the market,” he adds
    • RBA’s Debelle says Australia inflation could be weaker than recent data showed
    Asia stocks were indecisive for most of the session following the worst performance in their US counterparts since early September, where losses were led by telecoms and industrials amid a slump in AT&T and Boeing shares post-earnings. Corporate updates were in focus in Asia with ASX 200 (+0.1%) initially pressured by weakness in its largest weighted financials sector after ‘Big 4’ ANZ Bank missed on FY results. However, a late rebound in other banking names in Australia lifted the index into the green heading into the close. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) dismissed a firmer JPY and traded positive with Daiwa Securities and Fanuc among the biggest gainers after encouraging earnings. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were mixed ahead of updates from the blue-chip financials with the mainland lifted after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with early mild upside seen alongside a rebound in USTs, while today’s 2yr JGB auction failed to inspire demand despite stronger than prior results as price action conformed to the mundane tone seen across overnight asset classes. PBoC injected CNY 80bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 40bln via 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6288 (Prev. 6.6322)
    • Top Asian News
    • Japan Post Insurance Preparing to Invest in Foreign Real Estate
    • Vietnam’s Biggest-Ever Initial Public Offering Prices at Top End
    • No Good News for India’s Bonds Means Yields Set to Grind Higher
    • Sri Lanka Large Lenders Rise as Rule Changed for Minimum Capital
    • Kobe Steel Finds Four Additional Cases of Suspected Fake Data
    • RBA’s Debelle Says Inflation May Be Even Weaker Than Data Show
    In Europe, price action has also been tentative with traders looking to take the lead from events in Frankfurt today. In terms of sector specific moves, performance is relatively mixed with a bulk of the outliers coming in the form of individual companies given we are in the thick of earnings season. Notable movers include Barclays (-5.9%), Bayer (-3.4%), AB Inbev (-2.6%), Deutsche Bank (-2.03%, STMicroelectronics (+6.4%). Typically tight and light trade in Bunds ahead of an ECB meeting, and especially one that is widely expected to herald a change in policy. The 10 year German bond briefly attempted to trade higher off the Eurex open, but swiftly reversed course and revisited sub-161.00 territory (ie yield staying close, albeit just below 0.5%). Volume so far only a little more than 100k lots, with many market participants sitting tight until the ECB reveals its QE hand amidst a range of potential tapering options and opinions. Gilts largely side-lined, but firmer for choice having underperformed yesterday on UK data that supports near term tightening (November BoE hike prospects up to between 80-90% as a result). Some respite for US Treasuries also, after recent bear steepening, on a Wall Street downturn and reports that dove Yellen may yet be reappointed by President Trump for a further term.

    Top European News
    • Santander Underlying Profit Gains as Charges Hurt Net Income
    • Liberty Global-Ziggo Deal Approval Annulled by EU Court
    • Hungarian Central Bankers Reiterate Extra Euro Entry Conditions
    • IMF Tells Central Banks to Keep Policy Accomodative If Possible
    • Norway Keeps Rates at Record Low to Back Recovery From Oil Slump
    In FX, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle says they are alert to risk that wages will remain subdued even as spare capacity is reduced. US President Trump says his people negotiating NAFTA will have to get tougher and that to make a fair deal with NAFTA, it has to be terminated n a session set to be dominated by central bank action, notable announcements thus far have included rate decisions from the Riksbank and Norges bank. Kicking off with the Swedes, as expected the governing council stood pat on rates at -0.5% whilst maintaining their current size of asset purchases and repo rate path. The bulk of the reaction emanated from the Bank not paying too much credence to recent disappointing inflation data which led to appreciation of the SEK. However, this move was short-lived after the Bank extended their mandate for FX interventions. Elsewhere in the Scandi’s NOK saw little in the way of a reaction after the Norges bank kept rates on hold as expected and maintained existing rhetoric. AUD slipped below 0.7700 after RBA Debelle highlighted risks that wages could remain subdued. Finally, most other majors have traded in a relatively tight-range ahead of the ECB.

    In commodities, in the commodity complex, price action has also been particularly tight with WTI reclaiming USD 52/bbl with little in the way of newsflow other than comments from the Saudi Crown Prince backing extending OPEC output cuts into 2018. In metals markets, copper has traded relatively flat while Gold has largely been tracking movements in the USD which has been kept in a range ahead of key risk events.

    Looking at the day ahead, the ECB meeting at 12.45pm BST and Draghi press conference shortly after are likely to be front and center today. Data wise this morning we’ll receive German consumer confidence for November, Euro area M3 money supply for September and UK CBI retailing reporting sales for October. In the afternoon across the pond wholesale inventories for September, initial jobless claims, September advance goods trade balance, September pending home sales and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity data are all due. Barclays, Twitter, Amazon and Alphabet are amongst those due to report results.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 222,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
    • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $64.0b deficit, prior $62.9b deficit, revised $63.3b deficit
    • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.7%, revised 0.7%
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.1
    • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -2.6%
    • 10am: Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. -4.2%, prior -3.1%
    • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 17, prior 17
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    So today is the day we’ve all been waiting for. It’s not an exaggeration to say some people have waited all their life for this moment. What will the announcement bring? Will the conspiracy theorists be working overtime? And will we get closure on a number of issues? Yes today sees the release of the final classified files on the JFK assassination nearly 54 years after the event. As someone who knows most of what he knows about the event from the film JFK I’m looking forward to being educated.

    Fortunately the minutes of today’s blockbuster ECB meeting will be available in only a few weeks so there’ll be no need for a film to be made speculating on how we got to the decision (who would play Mr Draghi?). Ahead of this, in a year of ultra-low volatility, yesterday threatened to leave you with a bit of motion sickness given the comparatively large swings seen and decent pick up in volumes. Given how well flagged today’s much anticipated ECB meeting is, it’s possible that yesterday was the storm before the calm. However there are still ways that Mr Draghi and co could surprise. Overall DB expect a cut in purchase at the start of 2018 from EU60bn per month to EU30bn and for this to be confirmed for 9 months. The consensus (guided by informed articles and commentary from the ECB) seems to have migrated lower towards EU25-30bn over the last month and from a 6 to a 9 month extension. However with reinvestments expected to be EU15bn per month on average next year, this could yet lead to a number at the lower end of expectations if the ECB focus on this. Our rates strategists think an explicit mention of gross purchases from the ECB could be quite hawkish as it would acknowledge the reinvestment issue that would naturally keep policy looser if they recycled all proceeds.

    Another hawkish signal could be mention of an explicit end date for purchases but this is not expected at the moment. Nevertheless our strategists think the current market pricing of the first rate hike being pushed back to early 2020 is too far. They think it’s more likely to be between Q2 and Q3 2019. Elsewhere for credit investors it’s unlikely they'll explicitly mention the specifics of the CSPP/ PSPP split but we think there's a good chance that when the data comes through in early 2018 it will show no or limited CSPP tapering relatively to PSPP. See the note we did on this last week for more details.

    We’ve mentioned a few times recently that bonds were looking like they were getting more volatile with the ranges picking up. Yesterday this trend increased as the intra-day range in 10yr USTs, Bunds and Gilts were 6.2bp, 3.7bp and 10.1bps respectively, before closing +1.3bp, 0.6bp and 4.8bp higher. USTs saw the biggest round trip closing at 2.433% having retraced nearly all of the sell-off up to 2.473% earlier on. Driving the swing seemed to be ECB hawkishness (growing chatter about a cut to EU20bn) and stronger IFO, UK GDP and US durables (more later) on one hand before a response to weaker earnings (again more later) and a delayed reaction to the prior day’s disagreement between Senator Flake and Corker and Mr Trump seemed to swing the pendulum the other way.

    Over in the US, the House of Representatives votes today on whether to adopt the 2018 budget that has already passed in the Senate. The House Republicans holds 239 seats and need only 217 votes to pass the budget, but potential defections may rock the boat. If passed, this will clear another hurdle before the finer tax plans are released, (expected to be 1 November) which will then lead to further debates. Elsewhere and adding to the bumper Thursday, Italy’s Senate is expected to hold a final vote on its new electoral bill (11am local time).

    Moving onto the search for the next Fed Chair, President Trump told Fox network he has narrowed his search to 2 or 3 people, and when asked if Ms Yellen “might be worth keeping”, he said “I would certainly think about that”.He added a decision will come in “the next very short period of time” and that “it won’t be a big shock”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Trump has privately told people that he would not appoint Gary Cohn to be the Fed Chair, in part to better allow him to focus on the tax reform efforts.

    Back in equities yesterday, both the S&P (-0.47%) and Dow (-0.48%) fell the most since early September, while the Nasdaq also retreated 0.52%. The weakness was impacted by softer corporate results from AMD (share price- 13.47%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (-14.58%) and even Boeing (-2.85%) after beating consensus forecasts. Within the S&P, all sectors were in the red, led by losses from the telco (-2.28%) and industrials sectors. The VIX rose to 11.23, back towards its recent highs in early September.

    It’s not clear whether some of the risk off was a response to the recent surge in yields. So far markets have shrugged it off but as we approached 2.5% and 0.5% on Treasuries and Bunds perhaps there was an appreciation that most of the recent move has been an increase in real yields and not inflation expectations moving notably higher. So financial conditions have tightened slightly as a result. It’s not clear whether that was an issue but whatever the cause there’s no doubt activity and vol increased.

    This morning in Asia, markets are mixed but little changed. The Hang Seng (-0.17%), Kospi (-0.12%) and ASX 200 (-0.10%) are down slightly, but the Nikkei (+0.16%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) are up as we type. Now quickly recapping other markets performance for yesterday. European bourses were all lower, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.57%), DAX (-0.46%) and CAC (-0.37%) down c0.5%, while the FTSE (-1.05%) underperformed, partly impacted by higher Sterling and GlaxoSmithKline’s weaker results (shares -5.52%, biggest daily fall in 9 years). Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dipped marginally (-0.07%), while Euro republic, while the region’s foreign affairs chief suggested they would consider dropping their bid for independence if the central government offered them a way out. We should find out soon, with the Catalan President Puidgemont due to address Parliament this afternoon (from 5pm local time).

    Over to the UK, Brexit secretary Davis had to back track earlier comments where he suggested the UK Parliament may not be able to vote on the final EU divorce term before Brexit happens, as “it (voting) can’t come before we have the deal”. Later on, his office emailed a statement and noted “we are working to reach an agreement on the final deal in good time before we leave the EU in March 19”. Elsewhere, EU Chief negotiator Barnier noted that talks should be wrapped up by October 2018.

    In Canada, the cash rate was left unchanged at 1%, in line with consensus. Looking ahead, comments sounded a bit dovish, with the BOC noting “while less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, the Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by (the) incoming data…” Further, Governor Poloz noted “given our recent history with inflation running below target, we continue to be more preoccupied with the downside risks to inflation”. The odds of a December rate hike fell c11ppt to 33%.

    Turning to China, where the new Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) was unveiled yesterday. Our China Chief economist noted that President Xi has gained more political power in this reshuffle. Stronger political power is a necessary condition for faster structural reforms, but not a sufficient one. It remains to be seen how effective the reforms will be implemented, particularly regarding state owned enterprises, fiscal and property market issues. For more details, refer to link.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the September durable goods orders report beat expectations, even with 0.2ppt upward revisions to the prior month’s reading. Core durable goods orders was 0.7% mom (vs. 0.5% expected) while capital goods orders (core) rose 1.3% mom for a third consecutive month (vs. 0.3% expected) - now up 7.8% yoy. Elsewhere, housing market readings were also higher than expectations. New home sales for September rebounded after two months of decline to 667k (vs. 554k expected). The FHFA house price index for August was up 0.7% mom (vs. 0.4% expected) and the four-week average of the MBA’s new purchase mortgage applications index is now up 7.7% yoy, roughly double that reported a month earlier.

    In Germany, the October IFO business climate rose to a new post-unification high at 116.7 (vs. 115.1 expected), while the expectations index also rose to 109.3 (vs. 107.3 expected) – the highest since December 2010. In the UK, 3Q GDP beat expectations at 0.4% qoq (vs. 0.3% expected), which is the highest growth this year, while annual growth was in line at 1.5% yoy.

    Looking at the day ahead, the ECB meeting at 12.45pm BST and Draghi press conference shortly after are likely to be front and center today. Data wise this morning we’ll receive German consumer confidence for November, Euro area M3 money supply for September and UK CBI retailing reporting sales for October. In the afternoon across the pond wholesale inventories for September, initial jobless claims, September advance goods trade balance, September pending home sales and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity data are all due. Barclays, Twitter, Amazon and Alphabet are amongst those due to report results.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ead-todays-main-event-ecbs-taper-announcement
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: October-26-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Traders will start taking positions for next week’s FOMC meet. Everything is factored in traders before the FOMC on interest rate trend and US economic growth. US housing numbers failed to add gains to the US dollar. This makes me believe that short sellers need to be careful in gold and silver. Gold and silver investment demand is seen from Europe. Asian gold investment demand is more or less zilch at the moment. Asians are looking for a price reversal for investment. Technically short term gold and silver are in a neutral zone. I will prefer to call it as a cyclical trend.
     
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    On path to de-dollarization: World tired of funding US military adventurism – Max Keiser
    RT



    Published on Oct 25, 2017
    One of the world’s top energy importers, China, is set to roll out a yuan-denominated oil contract as early as this year. Analysts call the plan, announced by Beijing in September, a huge move against the dollar's global dominance.
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 1%
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold gained $5.10 to $1282.50 in Asia and held near unchanged in London, but then fell back off in New York and ended near its last-minute low of $1265.90 with a loss of 0.79%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.744 and ended with a loss of 0.94%.
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: October-27-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    European central bank chief taper comments and Spain let down the euro. Technical picture is bearish for gold and silver. Reuters survey says that most of the analysts have reduced their gold and silver forecast for next year. I am not changing my bullish views on gold and silver for next year. This year gold and silver are mainly supported by geopolitical risk. Next year I expect the South China Sea and Korean peninsula to turn into the Persian Gulf.
     
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    Debt Bubble Becoming "Perverse and Immoral" | Jerry Robinson
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Oct 26, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    Christian economist Jerry Robinson from Follow The Money tells Silver Doctors the biggest financial problem currently is the debt bubble. "That debt is not going away. And our children and our grandchildren are going to be faced with something perverse and immoral if we don't change course."

    Robinson also sees cracks appearing in the petrodollar system. He says the U.S. will do anything to protect it's global economic hegemony.
     
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    Venezuela Default T Minus 24 Hours, Gold & Your Economy
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Oct 26, 2017
    Venezuela default in T minus 24 hours? Join the Junius Maltby channel as we discuss this and a few other pertinent headlines with a discussion focussed on the world economy and the psychology of stacking when times are good.
     
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    The “Everything Bubble” | Jason Burack on SD Metals & Markets
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Oct 27, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    In this week's SD Metals & Markets with Elijah Johnson, Eric Dubin, and Jason Burack:
    - If precious metals don't rise, miners will shut down.
    - Everything except precious metals are in a bubble.
    - Central banks are injecting more money than you think into the economy.
    - Is U.S. GDP actually 3%?
     
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    TBP - 10 Sunday Reads 1o/29
    http://ritholtz.com/2017/10/sunday-reads-111/

    Naked Capitalism Links 10/29
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/10/links-102917.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 10/29
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    LT - Outlook for week of October 30
    https://lunatictrader.com/2017/10/29/outlook-for-week-of-october-30/

    AR - Sunday links: given a blank slate 10/29
    https://abnormalreturns.com/2017/10/29/sunday-links-given-a-blank-slate/

    SA - Weighing The Week Ahead: Fed Chair, Tax Proposal, Data Avalanche, Earnings - A Pundit's Paradise 10/29
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...osal-data-avalanche-earnings-pundits-paradise
     
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    Bad News Banksters Double Cross Their Customers


    -- Published: Monday, 30 October 2017

    By Clint Siegner

    Crooked bankers are all over the headlines again.

    The world’s largest metals hedge fund, Red Kite Management, Ltd., is suing Barclays for rigging copper prices. Federal prosecutors launched an investigation of Wells Fargo bankers working on its foreign exchange desk Friday. And on October 23rd, a jury in New York convicted an HSBC trader of fraud.

    [​IMG]

    The HSBC trader, Mark Johnson, said he “thought we got away with it” to his coworkers after cheating their client in a massive foreign exchange transaction. But he was wrong. The jury found him guilty for his involvement in a 2011 exchange in which the Cairn Energy Plc converted $3.5 billion dollars to British pounds.

    Johnson had taken Cairn’s order and promptly turned around to provide the details of the upcoming transaction to other HSBC traders. They front ran the client’s order by buying pounds which they then resold to the client for approximately $8 million in profit. When Cairn complained about the high price at which their trade was executed, Johnson blamed the “Russians.”

    The investigation of Wells Fargo also involves foreign exchange. Federal agents got involved shortly after news that Wells Fargo had fired four traders and re-assigned a senior executive. Sources said the bank took this action after completion of an internal investigation. Details as to which client was involved and how they were cheated are not yet public.

    Few will be shocked if it turns out that Wells Fargo was swindling another customer. Over the past year, the bank admitted employees had created as many as 3.5 million phony accounts and charged related fees. We also know the bank has been overcharging clients for auto insurance and mortgage related products.

    The allegations at Barclays Bank on behalf of Red Kite are a variation on the same theme: abuse the customer’s trust. The complaint indicates that bankers used knowledge of the firm’s open copper trades to profit at their client’s expense.

    [​IMG]

    Very often in the commodity markets, when an investor places an order to buy or sell with a banker, the banker will take the other side of the trade.

    Any loss becomes his gain. Red Kite hopes to recover $850 million in losses in the suit.

    To have honest markets, people are going to have to be held to account. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely a senior bank executive will actually be prosecuted even if it is warranted.

    Regulators also aren’t likely to punish pervasive fraud by revoking any bank’s trading privileges. Some lower level staffers have been fired and some of those could go to jail, but history shows that is about as far as captured federal officials are likely to go.

    There is hope that the civil suits, like the one being waged by Red Kite, could bear fruit in terms of holding banks accountable. Civil penalties aren’t the same as prison time, but if they are large enough perhaps it will give bankers pause.

    There is also the market. In a story we can only hope is related, last week Deutsche Bank and Barclays both announced their trading revenue fell 30% in the third quarter. At some point people will start to think twice about whether their bank can really be counted on to treat them fairly and start looking for alternatives. Perhaps that has already begun.

    Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1509383209.php
     
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    US Futures Rebound After Disappointing Chinese, European Data

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 31, 2017 7:04 AM

    Yesterday's sharp Chinese selloff is now a distant memory after the BTFDers emerged, and this morning U.S. equity futures are once again levitating as the FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting, following an uneventful BOJ announcement on Tuesday morning which left all QE parameters unchanged. Asian stocks traded mixed steady while European shares climb.

    The key event overnight was the BOJ meeting, in which the central bank maintained QQE with Yield Curve Control and kept NIRP unchanged at -0.1% as expected. The decision to keep QQE with YCC was made by 8-1 vote, with Kataoka the sole dissenter again who suggested the BoJ needs to buy JGBs so that 15yr yield stays below 0.2%, while Kataoka also commented that the BoJ should ease if domestic factors lead to delays in reaching the inflation target. In terms of changes to its outlook forecasts, the BoJ raised FY 17/18 Real GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 1.8%, while it cut Core CPI forecasts to 0.8% from 1.1% for FY 17/18 and to 1.4% from 1.5% for FY 18/19

    Asian shares rose in afternoon trading, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.1 percent to 168.29 and ignoring the overnight miss across the board in Chinese PMIs...



    [​IMG]





    ... Confirming China's economy is rolling over...


    [​IMG]

    ... supported by tech stocks as companies including Sony and Nintendo boosted their forecasts. Samsung gave the biggest boost to the regional gauge and South Korea’s benchmark after announcing a revamp of its executives. Japan’s Nikkei closed just barely lower, technically only its second down day in October, with SoftBank weighing on the index after talks to merge its Sprint unit with T-Mobile US were said to be in peril. Samsung Electronics closed at a record after nominating its Chief Executive Officer Lee Sang-hoon as its next board chairman, along with other management changes, hours after detailing a boost in shareholder payouts. The company’s plans, along with a pledge by South Korea and China to move beyond a year-long dispute over Seoul’s decision to deploy a U.S. missile shield, helped lift the Kospi Index to a new all-time high (remember the North Korea nuclear armageddon threat? Neither does the market).

    "South Korean equities gained led by the Korea-China agreement on the Thaad issue and also because of Samsung Electronics’ announcement," said Min Byungkyu, a global market analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea. Technology stocks rose the most among sub-indexes on the regional gauge, with Nintendo soaring after nearly doubling its annual profit forecast and Sony and Denso Corp. climbing after both companies boosted earnings outlooks. In India, Axis Bank surged after a report that Bain Capital plans to invest in the lender.

    Speaking of China, the slump in Chinese government bonds is close to an end, with sentiment set to stabilize as the central bank boosts cash injections, analysts said The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond fell 3 basis points to 3.90% on Tuesday, halting a four-day increase of 20 basis points that took it to the highest level in three years. The People’s Bank of China injected funds for a fourth day on Tuesday, adding a net 230 billion yuan ($35 billion) in the period.As a result, the SHCOMP halted the recent slump, rising just under 0.1% to 3,393.


    In Europe, traders ignored the miss in euro-area inflation data in stride as closed German markets due to a local public holiday has led to a muted European session. The euro-area’s unemployment rate inched lower in September as the economy expanded for an 18th consecutive quarter, but consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed in October, complicating the European Central Bank’s task as it considers tightening policy.

    Oil and gas stocks led gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as crude hovered near a six-month high. Most European stocks climb, led by oil and gas sector; FTSE 100 rebounds after BP (+2.6%) earnings and buyback announcement. European energy names lead the way higher in the wake of BP’s earnings (+3.3%) which have subsequently supported the index. Financial names have seen slight underperformance after BNP’s (-3.2%) weak earnings which has also subsequently seen the CAC modestly underperform its peers. Elsewhere, UK gambling names have been granted some reprieve after the UK government’s crackdown on fixed-odd betting terminals does not appear to be as bad as some had initially feared.

    Treasuries and core European bonds were mostly steady. Earlier a note of caution had crept into markets in Asian hours following a drop in China’s factory gauge, and equity benchmarks in that region were mixed. Japanese stocks ended the day slightly lower after the Bank of Japan maintained its key policy rate and target for the yield on 10-year government bonds, while showing concerns remain on the inflation outlook.

    The yield on 10Y TSY rose less than one basis point to 2.37%. Germany’s 10Y yield decreased less than one basis point to 0.37%, the lowest in two weeks. Britain’s 10Y yield dipped one basis point to 1.335%, the lowest in more than a week.

    American tax reform also remains a key theme, with lawmakers said to be considering a phase-in plan. The indictment of former Trump campaign aides in Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in the U.S. election, however, may pose a danger to the White House as it tries to push tax cuts though Congress. Fed and BOE rate decisions this week remain in focus for FX, with major currency pairs trading in tight ranges; GBP/USD continues to trade with an upside bias due to positioning into BOE announcement.

    West Texas Intermediate crude fell less than 0.05 percent to $54.14 a barrel. Gold decreased 0.1 percent to $1,275.55 an ounce. Oil is poised for its second monthly gain for the first time this year.

    [​IMG]

    Economic data include employment-cost index, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Mastercard and Pfizer are among companies reporting earnings today

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European bourses trade higher with energy names topping the leaderboard after earnings from BP
    • EU inflation fell short of expectations but little reaction for EUR with markets already braced for a softer print given German readings yesterday
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US APIs
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,573.25
    • MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 168.30
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.3% to 550.81
    • Nikkei unchanged at 22,011.61
    • Topix down 0.3% to 1,765.96
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 28,245.54
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.09% to 3,393.34
    • Sensex down 0.06% to 33,245.25
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,909.02
    • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,523.43
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.08% to 394.22
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.359%
    • Euro down 0.06% to $1.1644
    • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $60.67/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 10.0 bps to 1.582%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.477%
    • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $60.70/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.05% to $1,276.96
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 94.52
    Top Overnight News
    • The Bank of Japan left its massive monetary-stimulus program unchanged even as it trimmed its inflation forecasts, signaling further divergence ahead from its global peers
    • France’s economy extended its run of growth into a fifth quarter, marking its best streak in more than six years; the 0.5% expansion in the three months through September, compared with an upwardly revised 0.6% the previous three quarters, was supported by corporate and household investment while trade weighed on growth
    • Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont kept his followers guessing as to the next step in his pursuit of an independent republic, after fleeing to Belgium where he’s expected to emerge on Tuesday
    • China’s official factory gauge fell to 51.6 in Oct., vs. 52 forecast in Bloomberg survey, and five-year high of 52.4 in Sept., with new orders and prices leading the decline, as officials increasingly prioritize a campaign to clamp down on polluting industries and rein in debt
    • White House Downplays Mueller Indictments; Apple Escalates Qualcomm Dispute; Ex-Third Point Partner Drawing SEC Probe
    • Congress will put Facebook, Twitter and Google under a public microscope Tuesday about Russia’s use of their networks to meddle in the 2016 election, a day after Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s criminal investigation disclosed its first indictments and guilty plea
    • Apple Inc. is designing iPhones and iPads for 2018 that don’t use components from Qualcomm Inc. amid an escalating dispute between the companies
    • House tax writers have completed about 90 percent of the tax bill they plan to release this week, Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said Monday -- but the last part may be the hardest
    • SoftBank Group Corp.’s talks to merge U.S. unit Sprint Corp. with T-Mobile US Inc. have hit a serious snag throwing the deal into jeopardy after months of talks
    • The Bank of Japan left its massive monetary stimulus program unchanged even as it trimmed its inflation forecasts, signaling further divergence ahead from its global peers
    • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin put to rest for now the idea bubbling in the $14.2 trillion Treasuries market that the government might introduce ultra-long term debt sales
    • The old recipe of using bonds to hedge against risks from equity holdings may not be a winner anymore, and investors would be better off with a more complex approach that relies on multiple tactics, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. analysis
    A cautious tone persisted in Asia as the region digested softer than expected Chinese PMI data and a dampened lead from the US where reports suggested corporate tax cuts could be gradual. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was indecisive and failed to maintain early energy-led gains, while Nikkei 225 (unch) was kept grounded by a firmer JPY and with SoftBank among the worst performers on reports it plans to abandon merger talks between its unit Sprint and T-Mobile US. KOSPI (+0.9%) gained after reports China and South Korea agree to resolve THAAD-related dispute and with Samsung shares buoyed by record quarterly profits, while Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) initially weakened following the miss on Chinese Manufacturing PMI and with some of the big 4 banks pressured post-earnings; the mainland pared losses heading into the clsoe. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with only minimal gains seen amid a risk averse tone in Japan and after an unsurprising BoJ policy announcement where dovish dissenter Kataoka suggested more easing.

    Top Asian News
    • China Factory PMI Falls From Five-Year High on Pollution Cleanup
    • BOJ Keeps Stimulus Unchanged as It Trims Inflation Outlook
    • China, South Korea Agree to Shelve Thaad Missile Shield Dispute
    • Macau Casinos Emerge From Rut as October Revenue Hopes Brighten
    • Indian Billionaire Fund Says Bank Boost to Help Clear Loans
    With Germany on vacation today, European bourses have started the session on the front-foot (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%), albeit modestly so. In terms of sector performance, energy names notably lead the way higher in the wake of FTSE-heavyweight BP’s earnings (+3.3%) which have subsequently supported the index. Financial names have seen slight underperformance after BNP’s (-3.2%) lacklustre earnings which has also subsequently seen the CAC modestly underperform its peers. Elsewhere, UK gambling names have been granted some reprieve after the UK government’s crackdown on fixed-odd betting terminals does not appear to be as bad as some had initially feared. A really low key final business day of October in the sovereign bond markets, thus far. Turnover has been extremely light, even allowing for Germany’s Reformation holiday with Bund volume on Eurex around 100k lots (at writing). The German benchmark has also been very rangebound, albeit mainly on the plus side of a 162.64-162.83 trading band, and it appears that many are sitting tight ahead of the key risk events later this week. Indeed, UK Gilts are even more contained within 124.37-54 parameters, awaiting BoE ‘super Thursday’ when a widely anticipated first rate hike in a decade comes with an uncertain vote split, policy meeting minutes, forward guidance and the latest QIR. US Treasuries largely consolidating on Monday’s decent gains made on risk aversion and month end positioning, which saw the 10 year yield retreat clearly below 2.40%, ahead of the FOMC, new Fed chair announcement and monthly jobs report.

    Top European News
    • Standard Chartered Retail Banking Chief Karen Fawcett to Retire
    • Ryanair Chief Seeks Solution to Pilot Crisis as Earnings Slide
    • Davis to Brief Cabinet on Brexit Amid Plans to Ramp Up Talks
    • MiFID Investment Research May Face VAT Hit From U.K. Taxman
    • BNP Slides as 3Q Earnings Miss Estimates on Weaker CIB Revenue
    • WPP Lowers Revenue Forecast as Ad Industry’s Woes Deepen
    In FX, trade has been particularly tentative thus far with the BoJ only causing a modest uptick in USD/JPY towards 113.00 after the Bank stood pat on rates as expected with 1 dissenter suggesting the need to buy 15yr JGBs to keep yields below 0.2%. EUR saw little in the way of a reaction to the latest miss on expectations for Eurozone inflation (Y/Y 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.5% and core 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.1%) with markets potentially already braced for a lacklustre figure given yesterday’s German prints.

    Commodities continue to trade in a particularly tight range with WTI crude futures consolidating around USD 54/bbl. Elsewhere, the metals complex has been relatively non-committal ahead of this week’s FOMC and NFP, while copper lacked impetus overnight amid a cautious risk tone and after weaker than expected PMI data from its largest consumer China.

    Looking at today's key data, notable data includes the flash October CPI print for the Euro area and France, the advanced Q3 GDP report for the Euro area and consumer confidence for the UK for October. In the US the Q3 employment cost index, October Chicago PMI, October consumer confidence and the August S&P/ Case-Shiller house price index is amongst the data due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Visco and Padoan are also due to speak while UK Brexit Secretary David Davis is questioned by the House of Lords EU Committee about the state of Brexit talks. BP and BNP Paribas are amongst the companies reporting results.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.5%
    • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.4%, prior 0.35%; YoY NSA, est. 5.93%, prior 5.81%; US HPI YoY NSA, prior 5.94%;
    • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 60, prior 65.2
    • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 121.3, prior 119.8; Present Situation, prior 146.1; Expectations, prior 102.2
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    The bond bullish/bearish switch that has alternated at regular intervals over the last few weeks has firmly switched to bull mode since the ECB meeting less than 72 business hours ago. Yesterday this got an additional boost by good news from the Peripherals, weaker German inflation, a former Trump campaign manager charged in connection with the Russia probe and reports that the US corporate tax rate may only be lowered in increments over 5 years.

    In the US, House tax writers are discussing a phase-in approach for corporate tax cuts, allowing the tax rate to gradually fall from 35% in 2018 to 20% by 2022 (ie: -3ppt per year), as per Bloomberg. The plans are not yet final and when asked, House Ways and Means Chairman Brady only said “we want to get the growth up front”. Treasury secretary Mnuchin noted “the objective is not to have that phase in, but we will see how that goes”. Looking ahead, the Ways and Means panel is expected to release the draft bill this Wednesday for further debate.

    Staying in the US, Bloomberg reported that three people have been indicted by Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel in relation to potential Russian influence on the 2016 US presidential election, including: 1) President Trump’s former campaign chairman (Paul Manafort) for conspiracy and money laundering (receiving payments from Ukrainian political parties and then laundered some of the payments back into US, 2) Ex-foreign policy adviser to Trump (George Papadopoulos), who reportedly lied about the timing of his contacts with foreign nationals, where he communicated with an overseas professor during the campaign (March 2016), who told him about Russians possessing “dirt” on Hillary Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails” and 3) a business partner of Mr Manafort. Elsewhere, President Trump tweeted “sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign”. However, the indictment noted Manafort’s illegal acts lasted into early 2017.

    It’s too early to know if there’s are any ramifications for politics or even the tax reforms but the guilty plea by George Papadopoulos, who served as a foreign-policy adviser to President Trump during the campaign suggests the Investigators may have someone who appears to be fully cooperating. This could potentially have a material impact.

    Turning to Catalonia where tensions have cooled. The Spanish government retook control of the Catalan region yesterday with little resistance and the ousted Catalan President Puigdemont has reportedly fled to Brussels, potentially seeking asylum while other party members will continue with the new election scheduled for 21 December. Puigdemont is expected to make an address later today. Elsewhere, El Mundo reports that opinion polls conducted early last week (before independence was declared) show that support for Catalan independence fell to 33.5% in the region. As a reminder, El Mundo also reported yesterday that opinion polls suggest Catalan secessionists could win 65 seats in a new election, but fall short of the 68 seats needed for new majority. The Spanish markets responded favourably, with the IBEX up 2.44% and 10y yields down 9.3bp. To put the mini bond rally in context, Spanish 10y yields are now the lowest since early September and 20bp lower than the day after referendum took place (1 October) and 15bp lower than the day before last week’s ECB meeting.

    Staying in government bonds, core European bond yields fell c2bp yesterday (Bunds -1.6bp; Gilts -1.4bp; OATs -2.9bp) while UST 10 fell 3.8bp driven by the aforementioned factors. Peripherals outperformed with 10y yields down 9-12bp (Spain -9.3bp; Italy -10.4bp; Portugal -11.9bp), with Italian bonds likely supported by S&P’s credit rating upgrade late last Friday, where it lifted the country’s rating 1 notch higher to BBB, citing strengthening economic outlook, an uptick in employment and a stronger banking sector.

    This morning, the BOJ voted 8-1 to retain its monetary stimulus policy, with the new board member dissenting. As our Japanese economist expected, the BOJ has trimmed its near term core inflation outlook to 0.8% for 2017 (-0.3ppt) and 1.4% for 2018 (-0.1ppt). However, the outlook for 2019 remains unchanged at 1.8%. In China, the October manufacturing PMI was softer than expectations at 51.6 (vs. 52), but remember that last month’s reading of 52.4 was the highest since 2012. This morning, Asian markets have followed the negative lead from the US and are trading slightly lower. The Nikkei (-0.24%), Hang Seng (-0.08%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.25%) are down slightly, but the Kospi is up 0.66%, after China and South Korea agreed to restore bilateral relations and put aside a yearlong disagreement over the deployment of a US missile shield.

    Recapping other market performance from yesterday now. US bourses softened from their record highs with the S&P and Dow both down slightly (-c0.3%), while the Nasdaq was broadly flat (-0.03%), partly aided by Apple where its shares rose 2.25% following reports of strong demand for its new iPhone X. Indeed my devise won’t be shipped for 4-5 weeks!!! Within the S&P, modest gains in the real estate and tech sectors were more than offset by losses from health care and t elco stocks (-1.41%), with the latter partly impacted by reports suggesting the merger between Sprint and T-Mobile may not occur. Core European markets were little changed, with the Stoxx 600 and DAX up 0.1% while the FTSE dipped 0.23%. Elsewhere, Spain’s IBEX led the gains (+2.44%) as tensions cooled in the region, while Italy’s MIB also rose 0.39%.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.38%, while the Euro gained 0.37% and Sterling rose 0.61% ahead of the BOE rate meeting this Thursday where the majority expect a rate hike (85.9% odds per Bloomberg). In commodities, WTI rose slightly (+0.46%) while Iron ore fell (-2.21%) for the fourth consecutive day. Elsewhere, both precious metals (Gold +0.23%; Silver -0.07%) and other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper +0.28%; Zinc +0.57%; Aluminium -0.22%).

    Away from the markets, Treasury secretary Mnuchin has backed away from the notion of issuing US treasuries with ultra-long maturities. He noted “we’ve done a bunch of research…at least for now, we don’t see a lot of demand for it” and that “if we could issue ultra-long bonds at the same yield as 30-year bonds, it makes a lot of sense”, but “if it turns out there’s a big premium….there’s no reason for us to do that”.

    Turning to Brexit, perhaps in a bid to fast track progress before the big EU summit on 14 December where EU leaders may give the green light to start talks on trade and transition deals, the UK PM May and Brexit Secretary Davis are seeking to change the timing and structure of the negotiations with the EU, from four day sessions held once a month to more regular and ongoing talks as it may help both sides to make the necessary compromises. We shall find out more today as Mr Davis is scheduled to speak to the cabinet.

    The latest ECB holdings were released yesterday. Net CSPP averaged €352mn/ per day last week (€367mn before April 2017 and €321mn since then, i.e. -12.3% since QE trimming). Net PSPP averaged €2,286mn/per day last week (€3,178mn before April 2017 and €2,440mn since then, i.e. -23.2% since QE trimming). This left the CSPP/PSPP ratio at 15.4% last week (13.5% over last 4 weeks vs. 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017). We still think the ECB will likely keep CSPP relatively unscathed when they halve their APP in January.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was a bit mixed. The September PCE Core was in line at 0.1% mom and 1.3% yoy. On a six-month annualized basis, core inflation is running slightly higher at 1.5%, but still remains below the Fed’s target of 2%. Elsewhere, personal spending grew at the fastest pace since 2009 up 1% mom (vs. 0.9%) and outpacing an in line personal income growth of 0.4% mom. Finally, the October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index was above expectations at 27.6 (vs. 21 expected) – marking the highest reading since March 2006.

    In Germany, October CPI was lower than expected, at -0.1% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 1.5% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected) – the lowest annual rate since November 2016. The September retail sales was in line at 0.5% mom, but datarevisions to prior readings meant annual growth was higher at 4.1% yoy (vs. 3% expected). In Europe, the final reading of consumer confidence was in line at -1, while the business climate confidence (1.44 vs 1.4 expected) and economic confidence (114 vs 113.3 expected) both beat expectations, the latter is now at the highest level since January 2001. In the UK, the September mortgage approvals was broadly in line at 66.2 (vs. 66k expected). Over in Spain, 3Q GDP was in line at 0.8% qoq, leaving a solid through year growth of 3.1%. Elsewhere, October Spanish inflation rose 0.6% mom, leading to an annual reading of 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected).

    Looking at the day ahead, notable data includes the flash October CPI print for the Euro area and France, the advanced Q3 GDP report for the Euro area and consumer confidence for the UK for October. In the US the Q3 employment cost index, October Chicago PMI, October consumer confidence and the August S&P/ Case-Shiller house price index is amongst the data due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Visco and Padoan are also due to speak while UK Brexit Secretary David Davis is questioned by the House of Lords EU Committee about the state of Brexit talks. BP and BNP Paribas are amongst the companies reporting results.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...und-after-disappointing-chinese-european-data
     
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    Frontrunning: October 31

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Oct 31, 2017 8:01 AM


    • Mueller’s Moves Signal Broad Scope (WSJ)
    • Spain awaits next move by ousted Catalan leader from Belgium (Reuters)
    • China, South Korea agree to mend ties after THAAD standoff (Reuters)
    • For Manafort, Questionable Airbnb Sublets Became a Family Affair (BBG)
    • U.S. business group worries Trump unprepared for commercial talks with China (Reuters)
    • Google’s Dominance in Washington Faces a Reckoning (WSJ)
    • Tech Giants Disclose Russian Activity on Eve of Congressional Appearance (WSJ)
    • Collapse at North Korea nuclear test site 'leaves 200 dead' (Telegraph)
    • Tech executives head to U.S. Congress under harsh spotlight (Reuters)
    • Another China Company Defaults on Bond Payment as Borrowing Costs Jump (BBG)
    • Google ditched autopilot driving feature after test user napped behind wheel (Reuters)
    • Why Google and Amazon Aren’t in the Dow (BBG)
    • Swiss prosecutors seek widening of secrecy law to bankers abroad (Reuters)
    • Betting on the Next Fed Chair Often Goes Wrong (WSJ)
    • Under Armour slashes 2017 forecast, revenue falls (Reuters)
    • Is the ‘Death Tax’ Debate Finally Over? (BBG)
    • Ex-Third Point Partner’s Bond Trades Focus of SEC Probe (BBG)
    • Two Months After Harvey, Houston Continues to Count the Cost (WSJ)
    • Goldman Agrees With Dalio’s Tale of Two Economies (BBG)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - For the second time in three years, Sprint Corp is preparing to leave T-Mobile US Inc at the altar after months of negotiations to bring together the two U.S. wireless providers. Directors at Sprint's parent company, SoftBank Group Corp, met in Tokyo last week and decided to suspend the merger efforts, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2yZRQip

    - Facebook Inc, Alphabet Inc's Google and Twitter Inc are set to divulge new details showing that the scope of Russian-backed manipulation on their platforms before and after the U.S. presidential election was far greater than previously disclosed, reaching an estimated 126 million people on Facebook alone, according to people familiar with the matter, prepared copies of their testimonies and a company statement. on.wsj.com/2yYwFNr

    - Netflix Inc plans to end the political drama "House of Cards" after the end of season 6, which is currently in production, a person familiar with the situation said. The decision was made before reports about alleged sexual misconduct by star Kevin Spacey, the person said. on.wsj.com/2yZ2rKr

    - ?Apple Inc, locked in an intensifying legal fight with Qualcomm Inc, is designing iPhones and iPads for next year that would jettison the chipmaker's components, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2z1UtQM

    - A federal judge on Monday blocked President Donald Trump from implementing a ban on transgender individuals from serving in the military, the latest high-profile White House initiative to run into problems in court. on.wsj.com/2yZBYMI

    - The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating a decision by Puerto Rico's power authority to award a $300 million contract to a tiny Montana energy firm to rebuild electrical infrastructure damaged in Hurricane Maria, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2yZROXC

    FT

    UK finance minister Philip Hammond will not break his fiscal rules to increase public spending in the autumn budget and fears investors, already worried by Brexit, will be spooked if he abandons the fiscal framework adopted only a year ago, the chancellor’s allies said.

    British petrochemicals company Ineos on Monday agreed to buy fashion brand Belstaff, best known for its waxed cotton motorcycle jackets, in the latest off-beat project by Ineos’s billionaire founder Jim Ratcliffe.

    Key details about reports outlining the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU on 58 industries will not be released by the Brexit ministry which said it needs to carry out policymaking in a “safe space”.


    NYT

    - Russian agents intending to sow discord among American citizens disseminated inflammatory posts that reached 126 million users on Facebook, published more than 131,000 messages on Twitter and uploaded over 1,000 videos to Google's YouTube service, according to copies of prepared remarks from the companies that were obtained by The New York Times. nyti.ms/2z56yXn

    - The day after Kevin Spacey apologized following an accusation that he made a sexual advance on a 14-year-old boy in the 1980s, Netflix Inc announced that the next season of his show "House of Cards" would be its last. nyti.ms/2z6qA3x

    - President Trump is expected to nominate Jerome Powell as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen, whose term expires early next year, according to two people familiar with the plans. nyti.ms/2z5Ap1Q

    - The special counsel, Robert Mueller III, announced charges on Monday against three advisers to President Trump's campaign and laid out the most explicit evidence to date that his campaign was eager to coordinate with the Russian government to damage his rival, Hillary Clinton. nyti.ms/2z5UVzl

    - A federal judge on Monday temporarily blocked a White House policy barring military service by transgender troops, ruling that it was based on "disapproval of transgender people generally." nyti.ms/2z4Q29E

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Melbourne-based John Holland Group Pty Ltd has won tenders over the past year to participate in A$23 billion ($17.6 billion) worth of work on large public infrastructure projects, and expects to hire 100 people monthly over the next 15 months. tgam.ca/2xFxIRf

    Canada's brand-name pharmaceutical companies are pushing back against a plan to overhaul the country's drug-pricing regulator, saying they are keen to forge a compromise that would reduce prices, but not to a degree that could be "crippling" for the industry. tgam.ca/2xDl19b

    NATIONAL POST

    Cenovus Energy Inc picked former TransCanada Corp chief operating officer Alex Pourbaix to be its new president and chief executive officer, prioritizing expertise in dealing with external challenges over knowing the nuts and bolts of the business. bit.ly/2xDJOdA

    Beverage company Constellation Brands Inc is buying up to 20 percent of Canopy Growth Corp in a deal that lends legitimacy to Canada's fast-growing marijuana industry while potentially throwing open the door to additional investments in the sector by big international companies. bit.ly/2z0dEN9


    Britain

    The Times

    - Stuart Gulliver, outgoing chief executive of HSBC Holdings Plc, and Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc, on Monday called for clarity over Britain's future relationship with the European Union, warning that jobs and investment depend on a prompt decision. bit.ly/2z0IbIe

    - Chancellor Philip Hammond said Monday that Steffan Ball, chief economist at Citadel, a $26 billion hedge fund based in Chicago, was his new economic adviser. bit.ly/2z0dliZ

    - Pearson Plc is understood to be nearing a sale of its English-language teaching business to Asian private equity funds Baring Private Equity Asia and Citic Capital Holdings for up to $400 million. bit.ly/2z1hFPa

    The Guardian

    - Nationwide Building Society has paved the way for an across-the-board increase in mortgage costs by announcing that a 0.25 pct interest rate rise would be passed on in full to its 600,000-plus variable-rate home loan customers. bit.ly/2yZtuVO

    - Hundreds of free-to-use cash machines are at risk of being closed down on high streets across the UK as a result of proposals being published this week to overhaul the 70,000-strong Link network. bit.ly/2z0nXOV

    The Telegraph

    - Chemicals giant Ineos has bought Belstaff, the British heritage fashion brand, in the latest off-centre move by its founder and chairman, billionaire Jim Ratcliffe, a month after he unveiled plans to start making cars. bit.ly/2z0ltA5

    - Ten Lifestyle, the London-based concierge service is eyeing a listing on the junior Aim market in a bid to raise 40 million pounds and help it continue its domestic growth as well as increase its overseas footprint. bit.ly/2yZdmDO

    Sky News

    - Willie Walsh, the chief executive of British Airways' parent company IAG, has dismissed claims - including from Chancellor Philip Hammond - that flights could be grounded if Britain leaves the EU without a divorce deal. bit.ly/2z1MyD7

    - A pack of hedge funds is closing in on a takeover of BrightHouse, Britain's biggest rent-to-own retailer, just days after it was slapped with a 15 million pound ($19.81 million)compensation bill by the City watchdog. bit.ly/2z1MyD7

    The Independent

    - Walmart's British supermarket arm Asda announced that Chief Executive Sean Clarke will be stepping down at the end of the year, to be replaced by the company's current deputy Chief Executive and Chief Operating Officer Roger Burnley. ind.pn/2yZblY

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-31/frontrunning-october-31
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: October-31-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Trump and his controversies prevented gold and silver from a collapse. Russian meddling in elections is the headline. Americans meddle in the elections of every nation. Might is right for the Americans. By naming Russia American politicians are just trying to justify their global war cost. Most of the war which America or NATO are fighting are fake. Key American news providers are the real fake news and not the other way around.
     
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    Source: FBI opens inquiry into Whitefish's Puerto Rico contract
    [​IMG]
    CNN

    By Rene Marsh and Gregory Wallace, CNN15 hrs ago

    The FBI has opened a preliminary inquiry into the $300 million Whitefish Energy Holdings contract secured by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, according to a source with knowledge of the inquiry.

    The energy firm was contracted to rebuild the damaged electrical grid that was destroyed by hurricanes that struck the island. The Wall Street Journal was first to report the existence of the FBI probe.

    If the FBI's preliminary inquiry develops into a full investigation of the contract, it would join several other reviews of the contract already underway.

    It wasn't immediately clear what about the deal the FBI would be investigating. But members of Congress have raised concerns over the manner in which the contract for essential work to rebuild the island's decimated grid was awarded to the small Montana company. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has also raised concerns over whether the amount of the contract awarded was reasonable.

    The company also has ties to the Trump administration. The company is based in and named after the small hometown of Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, and the CEO is an acquaintance of the secretary. An investment firm that owns a major stake in the company is run by a donor to Trump's presidential campaign.

    The company, Zinke, the White House, and PREPA have denied any wrongdoing in issuing the contract.

    The Department of Homeland Security's inspector general said it opened a review of the contract after a CNN report highlighted the contract and calls from members of Congress. The office said it considers the investigation to be one of its high priority cases. At least two committees on Capitol Hill have also asked questions about the contract.

    However, the FBI field office in San Juan would neither confirm nor deny an investigation.

    Whitefish Energy spokesman Ken Luce said the company has not been contacted by the FBI.

    "While Whitefish is not aware of any such investigation, Whitefish is committed to full cooperation with any inquiry or investigation," Luce told CNN. "The procurement of the PREPA contract was at all times fully appropriate. Our focus continues to be on our work in Puerto Rico completing the work PREPA has tasked Whitefish to complete including the repair of the second major transmission line."

    CNN's Sophie Tatum contributed to this report.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/s...rsonalization_enabled:false&OCID=ansmsnnews11
     
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    TVR [#426] 10-31-2017 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Oct 31, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Gold Supply Plummets, BTC Futures Market Is INSANE!
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Oct 31, 2017
    We have gold output/supply in China dropping, prices dropping, uncertainty with he FED and BTC/Bitcoin crypto maniacs trying to create a futures market with crypto. Welcome to the Junius Maltby Channel. Thanks for watching, liking, subscribing and your participation here.
    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
    Channel Coin: https://qualitysilverbullion.com/prod...
    My BTC Wallet now: 189oA75Fma4jNAkcDetQX6YQpsBDktH9Wm
    BCC Address: 1B12a2S9nmmdaWYkrTeZEzyeaXGsqzd2aR

    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
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    Arctic Refuge Oil Bonanza More Likely to Be Bust for GOP Budget

    October 31, 2017 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    The Polar Pioneer drilling rig, pictured in 2012 while contracted to Shell to drill an exploratory well in Alaska’s North Slope in the Chukchi Sea . Photo: Shell Alaska

    By Jennifer A. Dlouhy and Alex Nussbaum (Bloomberg) — Congressional Republicans counting on a $1 billion windfall from selling oil-drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to help pay for tax cuts may be in for a disappointment.

    Data from previous Arctic oil lease sales suggest the U.S. is likely to collect less than a fifth of that billion-dollar goal over the next decade– about $145.5 million — from auctioning off territory in the sprawling northeast Alaska refuge where caribou calve and polar bears roam.

    Oil companies may be scared away by the controversies and costs of drilling in that remote and fragile terrain. Even if they aren’t, crude prices would have to be some $15 more per barrel than they are today to make the effort pay off at all.

    The potential revenues from drilling on Alaska’s north coast are in the spotlight because a Senate-passed budget resolution instructs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee to come up with $1 billion in deficit reductions over the next decade to help offset the costs of a $1.5 trillion tax cut package. The panel is scheduled to hold a hearing on drilling in ANWR on Thursday.

    “It’s pure fantasy that the Arctic refuge is going to generate anywhere close to the kind of revenues that are being spouted about right now,” said Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League, which opposes ANWR drilling. “This is a dry hole in the budget.”

    The idea of tapping the 19-million acre preserve for its potential oil bounty has long been debated in Washington, pitting energy industry advocates who see it as a way to revive production on Alaska’s North Slope against environmentalists who argue the activity would jeopardize a pristine wilderness with arctic foxes, polar bears and caribou herds.

    For decades, industry allies argued ANWR drilling was necessary to boost energy security and to create jobs. Now, after a shale drilling boom made the U.S. the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, proponents argue it’s essential for the state and federal budget.

    Republicans are using congressional budget rules to advance both Arctic drilling and a planned tax overhaul. Legislation following the budget resolution’s instructions is immune from the kind of Democratic filibuster that has blocked previous bids to drill in ANWR, making the prospects for drilling there more likely than it has been than at any time in the last four decades.

    Selling ANWR oil leases could yield significant royalties down the road. But that would only come after successful discoveries and construction of production facilities — not to mention near-certain lawsuits along the way.

    By contrast, congressional revenue projections are built on a 10-year time frame, counting only the government’s possible haul from selling drilling rights — not royalty checks tied to possible later oil production.

    It’s not clear how many energy companies would actually pursue the opportunity.

    A 2005 U.S. Geological Survey review based on decades-old data said the refuge might hold between 4.3 billion and 11.8 billion barrels of undiscovered but technically recoverable crude. That would rival the size of the mammoth Prudhoe Bay field that sparked the Alaskan oil rush four decades ago.

    But the government analysis did not project the commercial viability of ANWR development. Oil prices would have to be about $70 per barrel to justify production there, analysts say. The benchmark U.S. price was less than $55 Monday. Drilling in Alaska typically costs three times as much as in the Lower 48, according to industry researcher IHS Markit Inc.

    “The coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge does not have promising oil-bearing rock formations,” says Christopher Lewis, a retired petroleum geologist who worked for BP Plc on the Prudhoe Bay field and was a member of the American Petroleum Institute’s exploration committee. “There is not great interest in developing the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. There are safer bets.”

    Oil companies eager to maintain North Slope production and find new resources to fill the Trans Alaska Pipeline System are more likely to turn to the National Petroleum Reserve, a 23.5-million area in northwest Alaska explicitly set aside for energy development. It’s closer to existing infrastructure and less controversial.

    ConocoPhillips already has operations in the petroleum reserve, but says that if ANWR were open for leasing, “we would consider it against other opportunities in our portfolio.”

    “That being said, we see tremendous potential in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and remain focused on our projects and exploration plans there,” spokeswoman Natalie Lowman said.

    To tackle ANWR, oil companies would have to navigate “costly logistics, lengthy permitting and opposition from environmental groups,” the research firm Wood Mackenzie said in a report last year. And all of that could be undone by the next presidential election.

    “A future shift in the political landscape could put development of a potential discovery at risk,” the firm wrote. Studies show ANWR’s coastal plain holds “the largest undeveloped conventional oil resources to be found in the U.S.,” and they “could be developed in an environmentally responsible way,” said Erik Milito, a director with the American Petroleum Institute.

    But the cost and complexity of operating in the Arctic magnify concerns about “regulatory uncertainty that discourage investment of the large amounts of capital required for projects in the Arctic,” he said.

    Matt Lee-Ashley, a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress, said companies that do step up to the auction block probably would discount their bids because of the policy and legal uncertainty — and the bad publicity.

    “If you’re a CEO, that’s the X factor — how much do we put in a pot of litigation,” said David Murphy, an assistant professor of environmental studies at St. Lawrence University who has analyzed North Slope lease sales.

    Aside from those risks, the average bid for North Slope leases, both offshore and onshore, since 2000 is $194 an acre, according to an analysis Murphy prepared for the Alaska Wilderness League. Bids on ANWR’s coastal plain would need to be more than six times that — $1,333 an acre — with every single acre drawing a bid in order to raise $2 billion. The U.S. and state of Alaska would likely split the proceeds, so that would make the net for the U.S. Treasury $1 billion.

    “You’re counting in assumption after assumption after assumption,” Murphy said. At a certain point, “you’re just making stuff up about what the future might hold.”

    Even a 2008 Chukchi Sea lease sale — in which Royal Dutch Shell stunned observers by spending $2.1 billion snapping up offshore leases — had an average price below the necessary threshold, amounting to $977 per acre.

    Doug Reynolds, an energy economist at the University of Alaska, says the Trump administration’s projections on ANWR-related revenue over the next decade sounds ambitious, but that shouldn’t deter lawmakers from allowing drilling there.

    “No one really knows what’s in ANWR,” he said. “Why not open ANWR as an oil security back stop? It can help national security and possibly save American lives.”

    To argue against the move, environmentalists have been appealing to unlikely allies: fiscal hawks in Congress.

    “Counting on any kind of revenue from leasing in the Arctic refuge — let alone the numbers that are being thrown around — is the height of fiscal irresponsibility,” said Niel Lawrence, Alaska Director for the Natural Resources Defense Council. This “is a way to increase the federal deficit, not decrease it.”

    © 2017 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/arctic-refuge-oil-bonanza-more-likely-to-be-bust-for-gop-budget/
     
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    U.S. Oil Export Boom Putting Infrastructure to the Test

    October 30, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    The Theo T departs the port of Corpus Christi with the first US crude oil export since the United States government repealed a 40 year ban on the export of crude oil in December 2015. Picture taken December 31, 2015. Photo credit: Port of Corpus Christi


    By Catherine Ngai and Bryan Sims NEW YORK/HOUSTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) – Tankers carrying record levels of crude are leaving in droves from Texas and Louisiana ports, and more growth in the fledgling U.S. oil export market may before long test the limits of infrastructure like pipelines, dock space and ship traffic.

    U.S. crude exports have boomed since the decades-old ban was lifted less than two years ago, with shipments recently hitting a record of 2 million barrels a day. But shippers and traders fear the rising trend is not sustainable, and if limits are hit, it could pressure the price of U.S. oil.

    How much crude the United States can export is a mystery. Most terminal operators and companies will not disclose capacity, and federal agencies like the U.S. Energy Department do not track it. Still, oil export infrastructure will probably need further investment in coming years. Bottlenecks would hit not only storage and loading capacity, but also factors such as pipeline connectivity and shipping traffic.

    Analysts believe operators will start to run into bottlenecks if exports rise to 3.5 million to 4 million barrels a day. RBC Capital analysts put the figure lower, around 3.2 million bpd.

    The United States has not come close to that yet. A total of the highest loading days across Houston, Port Arthur, Corpus Christi and St. James/New Orleans – the primary places where crude can be exported – comes to about 3.2 million bpd, according to Kpler, a cargo tracking service.

    But with total U.S. crude production currently at 9.5 million barrels a day and expected to add 800,000 to 1 million bpd annually, export capacity could be tested before long. Over the past four weeks, exports averaged 1.7 million bpd, more than triple a year earlier.

    “Right now, there seems to be a little more wiggle room for export levels,” said Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays.

    “Two to three years down the road, if U.S. production continues to grow like current levels, the market will eventually signal that more infrastructure is needed. But I don’t think a lot of those plans are in place right now.”

    If exports do hit a bottleneck, it would put a ceiling on how much oil shippers get out of the country. Growing domestic oil production and limited export avenues could sink U.S. crude prices.

    Shippers have booked vessels to go overseas in recent weeks because the premium for global benchmark Brent crude widened to as much as $7 a barrel over U.S. crude , making exports more profitable for domestic producers.

    EXPORT PLANS
    Exports could hit 4 million bpd by 2022, an Enterprise Products Partners LP executive told an industry event in Singapore recently.

    Though some operators are already eyeing expansion plans, there are limitations, said Carlin Conner, chief executive at SemGroup Corp, which owns the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal. SemGroup has three docks for exporting crude and is building additional ones.

    “There aren’t very many terminals with the needed pipeline capabilities, tank farm capacity and proper docks to load the ships … Adding this is expensive and not done easily. So there are limitations to unfettered export access,” he said.

    For instance, exports are expected to start from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) in early 2018 at around one supertanker a month, according to two sources. The LOOP is potentially a key locale for exports. Its location 18 miles (29 km) offshore means it can handle larger vessels than other, shallower ship channels.

    While LOOP can load around 40,000 barrels per hour, operating at that capacity is not likely because that same pipe is used to offload imports, the sources added. LOOP did not respond to a request for comment.

    In Houston, when looking at the top 30 loading days, crude exports averaged 700,000 bpd, Kpler added. That includes Enterprise’s Houston terminal, among the largest of the export facilities, that had 615,000 bpd.

    Other terminal operators are also developing additional facilities. NuStar Energy LP currently can load between 500,000 to 600,000 bpd at its two docks in Corpus Christi, which has about 1 million in capacity, according to a port spokesman. NuStar is developing a third dock, which should come online either late first quarter or early second quarter.

    In Houston, Magellan Midstream Partners LP is planning a new 45-foot draft Aframax dock for mid-2018. Aframax vessels can carry about 500,000 to 700,000 barrels of crude. (Reporting by Catherine Ngai in New York and Bryan Sims in Houston; additional reporting by Jessica Resnick-Ault in New York; editing by David Gregorio)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/u-s-oil-export-boom-putting-infrastructure-to-the-test/
     
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    World Stocks Soar To New Record Highs As Oil, Metals Surge Ahead Of The Fed

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 1, 2017 7:08 AM


    US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs on Wednesday, with the MSCI’s world stock index climbing 0.3% to a fresh all time high. Mining stocks lead gains as nickel and other industrial metals soar. Oil rose above $55 a barrel for the first time since the start of the year in the longest winning streak in three months, on hopes that major producers would maintain their output cuts. The dollar firmed ahead of a Fed rate decision while bitcoin surged to a record high just under $6,600.

    As Bloomberg summarizes in its Macro Squawk Wrap, equities globally extended gains as investors await Fed developments, with a rate decision due today and announcement of the next chair expected on Thursday. Euro Stoxx 50 futures advance for a third-straight day, while S&P 500 futures set fresh day highs in the European session. Treasury futures trade in tight ranges after earlier weakening; block trades emerge, consistent with selling of U.S. bonds and buying of German debt. U.K. Oct. manufacturing PMI beats estimates, buoying sterling and sending GBP/USD above 1.3300 for the first time in weeks. WTI futures climb above $55/bbl to hit highest level since January; base metals gain broadly as nickel futures trade limit up in Shanghai.

    Among the proposed explanations for today's melt up is that we are witnessing a compressed and accelerated version of the Halloween rally, as summarized in the following Robeco chart:

    [​IMG]


    Whatever the reason, the buying today is unstoppable, with the European STOXX 600 index climbing to its highest level since August 2015 as stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt gained 0.5 to 1.2 percent in early trade. As a result, the Stoxx 600’s relative strength index has now climbed above 70, a level that indicates overbought conditions, for the first time in more than 2 weeks, and is heading for its highest level since Aug. 2015, led by cyclical sectors including miners, automakers and technology.

    Europe's jump followed a rally in Asia, where stock markets hit 10-year highs, with most of the 19 industry sectors rising. As of Tuesday’s close, 45 percent of MSCI Europe companies had reported results for the third quarter, of which 66 percent either beat or met expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3 percent to the highest in a week. Germany’s DAX Index increased 1.3 percent to the highest on record. DAX outperforms as German participants return to market from Reformation Day

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.9%, led by a 1.3% jump in South Korea. South Korea’s economic growth accelerated to its fastest pace in seven years last quarter. Growth in Taiwan during the same period was the strongest in 2 1/2 years. Of note in Asia was Japan, where the stock meltup was most pronounced with the Nikkei rising nearly 2%, and the Topix index rising to the highest in more than a decade, buoyed by a weaker yen, as a surge in U.S. consumer confidence in October served as the latest confirmation of a global economic recovery ahead of a Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. Electronics makers gave the biggest boost to the Topix as Sony jumped 11% to the highest level since June 2008 after lifting its annual operating profit outlook to a record, after the company announced record annual profit in 2017 owing to strong sales of semiconductors and favorable exchange rates. Tokyo Electron surged after posting results that beat expectations. The Nikkei 225 gained 5.5% in October, its strongest showing in 11 months. “Investors are gaining confidence as the global economy is solid,” said Masaaki Yamaguchi, an equity market strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo. “Not only exporters but also domestic-demand-oriented companies are improving earnings.” “Business confidence and corporate earnings are good in the U.S., and business sentiment is improving globally,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer with Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “Stocks are inclined to rebound, with a series of good earnings results. There’s more room for high-tech related shares to rise.”

    India’s benchmark equity indexes climbed to fresh records after a World Bank report showed it’s easier to do business in the nation. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.2% to 33,600.27 while the NSE Nifty 50 Index jumped 1% in Mumbai. Twelve of the 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of telecom companies. Bharti Airtel Ltd. gained the most on the Sensex after the country’s largest wireless carrier said “reputed global investors” had expressed interest in buying a stake in its Bharti Infratel unit.

    The dollar and Treasuries held steady ahead of a Federal Reserve decision expected to signal a rate rise is still in the cards for December. The New Zealand dollar surged after the country’s unemployment rate fell, while the yen led losses on reports Japan may plan for an increased budget and reappoint Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. European stocks jumped to a two-year high. The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 94.60, down from last week’s three-month peak of 95.15. The euro was little changed at $1.1644, some distance from the three-month low of $1.1574 it touched on Friday after the European Central Bank's stance was perceived to be more dovish than expected. The biggest currency mover was the New Zealand dollar. It jumped over 1 percent to $0.6931 after the country's jobless rate sank more than expected to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent. Bitcoin hit another record high above 6,600, boosted by bets the crypto-currency might enter the financial mainstream after the world's largest derivatives exchange operator said on Tuesday it would launch bitcoin futures. The yield on 10-year TSY rose 1bp to 2.39%. Germany’s 10-year yield also climbed 1 bp to 0.37% while Britain’s 10-year yield rose less than one basis point to 1.335%.


    The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed to the highest since March as WTI crude rose above $55 a barrel and industrial metals advanced, buoyed by optimism that demand from China won’t falter after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing suggested growth momentum remains robust. Nickel has been on a tear since Tuesday after Trafigura joined Glencore in revealing bullish forecasts because of the popularity of electric cars. Nickel sulphate is a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries.

    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile, in the US, Wall Street's three main indexes, the Dow, S&P and Naz, ended October with their biggest monthly gains since February. The focus remains firmly on central banks. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold Wednesday while signaling an all-clear for a December hike. An announcement on who will helm the U.S. central bank is due by the end of the week, with current board member Jerome Powell said to have the edge over the likely more hawkish John Taylor. The Bank of England will probably lift borrowing costs on Thursday for the first time in a decade.

    One potential threat to the markets’ risk-on mood could come from the unfolding investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russian interests after the first indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos claimed campaign officials approved a pre-election meeting with Russian representatives. US House Tax Committee Chairman Brady said that after consultation with President Trump and leadership team, they have decided to post pone the tax plan release to Thursday. There were initial reports that GOP tax plan would delay repeal of estate tax and will have corporate taxes cut to 20% during the 1st year, according to sources. (WSJ) However, there were later conflicting reports that stated some House GOP Representatives were said to consider phasing out 20% corp. tax over a number of years

    Elsewhere, bitcoin soared to a record after CME Group, the world’s biggest exchange operator, said it plans to launch futures trading on the cryptocurrency by year-end.

    Economic events include Fed’s rate decision, manufacturing data from ISM and Markit. Companies reporting earnings include Facebook, Kraft Heinz, Qualcomm.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • Buoyant commodity prices and corporate earnings have help lift European bourses this morning
    • GBP failed to sustain gains in the wake of upbeat UK manufacturing PMI ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement
    • Looking ahead, highlights include ADP employment change, ISM manufacturing, DoEs and FOMC rate decision
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,583.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 397.40
    • MSCI Asia up 1% to 169.66
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1% to 556.40
    • Nikkei up 1.9% to 22,420.08
    • Topix up 1.2% to 1,786.71
    • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 28,594.06
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.08% to 3,395.91
    • Sensex up 1.2% to 33,607.95
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,937.77
    • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,556.47
    • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.366%
    • Euro down 0.03% to $1.1642
    • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $61.49/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 1.561%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 1.454%
    • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,275.46
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 94.59
    Top Headline News from Bloomberg
    • A suspected terrorist plowed a truck down a bicycle path in lower
      Manhattan blocks from the site of the World Trade Center, killing eight
      and seriously wounding several more before an officer shot and arrested
      him
    • The biggest changes to the FOMC statement will probably come from an upgrade in its description of the U.S. economy. That would further cement the case for a move in December, though it’s unlikely that the committee will change the statement’s language to explicitly signal a rate hike; see FOMC decision day guide here
    • House tax writers pushed back the reveal of their highly guarded, long awaited tax bill by a day, a sign that disputes among Republican lawmakers are threatening their effort to pass comprehensive legislation by Thanksgiving
    • While an interest-rate hike by the BOE on Thursday is almost fully priced in, its nature is still in question, sending overnight volatility in cable to levels not seen since the Fed’s meeting in September
    • Caixin China October manufacturing purchasing managers’ index at 51, matching estimates and unchanged from September
    • One potential threat to the markets’ risk-on mood could come from the unfolding investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russian interests after the first indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller
    • As investors eagerly await President Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nomination, the central bank’s policy-setting committee will meet quietly in the background this week with many expecting them to keep interest rates unchanged
    • Treasury 10-year yield is set to climb toward 3 percent as the Fed could tighten three times in 2018 after a likely move in December, said James Ashley head of international market strategy Goldman Sachs Asset Management at the money manager
    • Best Buy Co. said it stopped some sales of Apple Inc.’s iPhone X and iPhone 8 after consumers complained about the retailer charging a $100 premium on the already expensive smartphones
    • Mylan NV’s second-ranked executive took an active role in a vast and “sinister” price-fixing conspiracy among global makers of generic pills that kept prices of the medications artificially high, dozens of states alleged in a new complaint; Mylan Bond Spreads Widen Amid Price-Fixing Probe
    • Former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos made a significant claim in an email: Top Trump campaign officials agreed to a pre-election meeting with representatives of Russian President Vladimir Putin
    • Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney faces a defining credibility test on Brexit-era rates
    • U.K. Hints at Compromises on Brexit Bill as Date Set for Talks
    • Macau Oct. Casino Rev. Rises 22.1% Y/y; Est. 14.5% Rise
    Asian equity markets began November solidly on the front-foot led by the Nikkei 225 (+1.95%) as exporters benefited from a weaker JPY and with Sony at its highest in over 9 years after its H1 profit more than tripled. Elsewhere, KOSPI (+1.3%) extended on record levels and ASX 200 (+0.5%) was also higher amid strength in commodity-related stocks. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) both initially conformed to the broad positive sentiment amid continued liquidity efforts by the PBoC, although mainland indices then trimmed gains in late trade. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand subdued amid the heightened risk appetite and with a firmer 10yr auction also largely ignored. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.0). PBoC injected CNY 140bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 40bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 60bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6300 (Prev. 6.6487)

    Top Asian News
    • Hong Kong Stocks Advance as Tencent Climbs Most in a Month
    • China’s Onshore Junk Bonds Show Resilience on Supply-Side Reform
    • Iron Ore Flips as Traders Bet on Revival When China’s Curbs Ease
    • Japan Shares Jump on Yen Weakness; Sony Leads Tech Stock Surge
    • Noble Bonds Show Bet on Deal Delay as Hedge Funds See Trap
    • Tencent’s Red-Hot E-Book IPO Sets Stage for Music Arm Debut
    European bourses have been likewise lifted by surging commodity prices and corporate earnings. However, Next's (-5.4%) Q3 financial results have sent shares tumbling as much as 7%, which is also weighing on the retail sector with Marks & Spencer and AB Foods feeling the pressure. Standard Chartered have suffered losses this morning after their results printed lower than expected. DAX outperforms as German participants return to market from Reformation Day. Not even an upbeat UK manufacturing PMI and upward revision to the previous headline read enough to jolt Gilts, which high-ticked just ahead of the release before drifting back a mere 4 ticks or so. The range remains extremely narrow between 124.19-35, with the 10 year bond basically marking time ahead of BoE super Thursday to see what else the MPC has up its sleeve on top of the all but priced in ¼ pt rate hike. Bunds also trapped within tight parameters and poised for bigger market-moving events, like the FOMC and monthly US jobs data alongside the aforementioned BoE policy announcements (and QIR). US Treasuries a tad off recent highs/yields slightly firmer, also awaiting Trump tax reforms (now expected Thursday) and his long awaited choice as next Fed chair.

    Top European News
    • Next Suffers as Warm Autumn Keeps Shoppers From Stores
    • Greece Is Said to Plan Debt-Swap Exercise Worth EU30 Billion
    • Turkey Raises Year-End Inflation Estimate to 9.8% vs 8.7%
    • U.K. Clothing Retailers May Decline After Next Sales Slump
    In FX, GBP has moved above 1.33 this morning for the first time since mid-October, which comes ahead of the Bank of England’s ‘Super Thursday’ meeting, where it is expected they will raise the bank rate to 0.5%. The question is, whether this will be the beginning of a sustained hiking cycle or a readjustment from last year’s QE measures. Within the option market, O/N GBP/USD breakeven is at 100 pips for the ATM straddle. UK Mfg. PMI rose above analyst estimates, providing a modest lift to GBP, although the move had been somewhat contained given the focus on tomorrows BoE decision. The beginning of a new month sees a change in the direction for NZD. Having found support at the 2017 low (0.6817), while also looking stretched on the downside. NZD has seen a move back above 0.6900, which came after a strong NZ jobs report, in which unemployment unexpectedly fell to a 9-yr low, while jobs growth rose 2.2%. Given that the new PM is looking at reforming the central bank act to have a dual mandate (inflation + employment) this somewhat raises the prospect of a rate hike. However, a rate hike is not seen in OIS markets until Q4 2018 at the earliest.

    JPY continues to weaken against the greenback amid the uptick in UST yields, which is looking to make a retest at 2.4%. Although, 114.00 has kept a lid on the gains in USD/JPY for now, touching a high of 113.97 overnight. Levels past 114.00 that could act as near term resistance is the highs seen in May and July at 114.45 and 114.49 respectively.

    In commodities, precious metals have been gaining throughout the morning to trade at intra-day highs with gold up USD 7.5/oz. Newsflow has been on the lighter side, however, according to Chinese state media, China’s 9-month gold consumption rose 15.5% Y/Y. WTI has extended on recent gains following a larger than expected drawdown in headline API crude inventories and as all other components of the release also showed declining stockpiles US API weekly crude stocks (23 Oct, w/e) -5.09M (Prev. 0.52M). Flows to Ceyhan have fallen to 216k bpd from 288k bpd seen yesterday, according to a port agent.

    Looking at the day ahead, the key event on Wednesday evening will be the FOMC meeting there is no scheduled Yellen press conference after. Along with the meeting we’ll also get some important data releases in the US including the ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing print for October and monthly vehicle sales. In the UK October house price data and the manufacturing PMI will be out. Facebook and Tesla are amongst the notable earnings reports.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.6%
    • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 200,000, prior 135,000
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54.5, prior 54.5
    • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 59.5, prior 60.8; Prices Paid, est. 67.8, prior 71.5; New Orders, prior 64.6; Employment, prior 60.3
    • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.15%, prior 0.5%
    • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
    • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.5m, prior 18.5m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.7m, prior 14.3m
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    October wasn’t a particularly scary month for investors with 32 out of our 39 regularly tracked global assets seeing a positive return in our monthly performance review. The S&P 500 (+2.33%) finished with a positive total return, meaning that the index has now seen a positive total return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time that this has happened in the 90 years we have data for. If you go beyond the calendar year end, October now marks the 12th positive month in succession which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936. A word of warning though, the next two months saw the run break spectacularly with returns at -3.6% and -7.7% respectively. See the note “S&P 500: The longest winning streak on record soon?” we did last month for more on this.

    October didn’t end in a particularly exciting manner but the action kicks off today and continues apace until the end of the week. However there is a European holiday today so the usual first of the month PMI releases across the continent will be delayed until tomorrow. We do see the important ISM in the US though as well as ADP which will provide some clues to the storm bounce back in Friday’s payroll release.

    Top of the bill (pardon the pun) today was supposed to be the next stage of the tax reform story. However, this morning we found out that the plans will be delayed until tomorrow, reflecting “the challenge of crafting and then passing a complex bill by Thanksgiving”. By then, we’ll see if there are any compromises in preserving deductions for state and local taxes which could impact Republican support in California and NY. We’d expect there to also be some focus on whether there is a phasing in of corporate taxes as per the leaks on Monday. Overnight, President Trump noted that “we’re not looking at that (phase in)”, but did left the door open by noting “it’s something, some people have mentioned, but hopefully not”. So all eyes on the House tomorrow. The FOMC meeting today should largely be a non-event, especially as there is no press conference. With a December hike priced at around 85%, it seems unlikely the Fed would want that number to change too much at the moment as it seems to suit them as things stand. They want to raise rates next month but leave a little wiggle room not to if events transpire against them over the next few weeks. DB’s Brett Ryan has previewed the meeting here.

    Turning to Catalonia where tensions appear to have cooled further. Speaking in Brussels, ousted Catalan President Puidgemont denied he is seeking political asylum as he is here as a normal “EU citizen”. Further, he noted “the (Catalan) republic cannot be built on violence” and that he would return to Spain “immediately” if he gets “guarantees” of a fair trial. Note that the Spanish National Court has charged him for sedition where if convicted could carry jail terms of up to 30 years. Finally, he will press on with the region’s case for independence, but will respect the outcome of the new regional election scheduled on 21 December. As a reminder, El Mundo reported on Monday that opinion polls suggest Catalan secessionists could win 65 seats in a new election, but fall short of the 68 seats needed for new majority. On the other side, Spanish government officials told Bloomberg that there has been no signs of disobedience so far in Catalonia and article 155 measures are now fully in place. Yesterday, the Spanish markets rebounded further on increased signs of a return to normality with the IBEX up 0.74% and 10y yields down 3.5bp.

    Now onto Brexit headlines, where there appears to be more signs that the UK may partly concede to break the stalemate in Brexit talks. One of the key issues is the potential financial settlement the UK owes to the EU bloc, where prior reports suggest the EU bloc want €60bln, while the UK only offered €20bln. Yesterday Brexit Secretary Davis noted “the withdrawal agreement…will probably favour the EU in terms of things like money and so on”. On the other hand, UK government spokesman James Slack noted that Brexit preparations have been accelerated with c3,000 new government jobs created to support Brexit planning, and that “each of these plans prepares the country for the range of negotiated outcomes and a no deal scenario”. Elsewhere, the main UK opposition party is seeking to apply parliamentary pressure on the government to release 58 studies on how leaving the EU will affect industries that make up c90% of the economy. Turning to the EU, the chief negotiator Barnier has offered some support and noted “I’m ready to speed up negotiations”, with the next round of Brexit talks to begin from 9th November.

    This morning China’s October Caixin manufacturing PMI was in in line and steady at 51. Markets are rebounding, with the Nikkei (+1.28%), Kospi (+1.11%), Hang Seng (+0.52%) and ASX 200 (+0.57%) all up as we type. Now recapping markets yesterday. Despite broadly supportive macro data, US bourses only edged slightly higher (S&P +0.09%, Dow +0.12%), as investors await for more news re the FOMC, Fed Chair and draft tax plans. The Nasdaq rose a tad more (+0.43%) to a fresh record high, partly aided by further positive momentum from Apple shares (+1.39%). European markets were broadly higher too, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.33%, with gains led by real estate, energy and tech stocks, with partial offsets from financials including BNP Paribas (-2.67%) post its results. Across the region, the FTSE (+0.07%) was up slightly while the DAX was closed for the day and Spain’s IBEX gained 0.74% as tensions in Catalonia cooled further.

    Over in government bonds, yields were mixed but little changed post the mini bond rally on Monday. The UST 10y rose 1.1bp while core European yields slightly outperformed (Bunds & Gilts -0.3bp; OATs -0.8bp) following lower than expected core inflation prints for the Eurozone (0.9% yoy vs. 1.1% expected). Peripherals continued to outperform, with Italian and Spanish 10y yields down 2bp and 3.5bp respectively.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index (-0.01%) and the Euro (-0.04%) were broadly flat, but Sterling gained 0.57%, partly aided by an expectation of a rate hike this week and news that UK First secretary of state Damian Green was appointed as the new head of Brexit and Trade cabinet sub-committee, as some view him as having a pro-EU stance. In commodities, WTI oil rose +0.42% while precious metals weakened modestly (Gold -0.38%; Silver -0.82%), but LME nickel jumped 5.31%, in part as some see materially higher usage of the metal in electric cars. This morning, other base metals are broadly trading higher (Copper +1.30%; Zinc +1.57%; Aluminium +0.12%).

    Away from the markets, the world’s large exchange owner (CME) is planning to have futures on Bitcoins by the end of the year. The contracts are expected to be settled in cash and use a daily price from the CME CF Bitcoin reference rate, with likely data feeds from digital exchanges such as Bitstamp, GDAX, itBIT and Kraken. A functioning derivatives markets on the digital currency could increase accessibility as professional investors could get exposure to its volatility and trade it on regulated venues as well as using the futures as a hedging tool. As a reminder, the price of a Bitcoin will set you back c$6,425, where the price has tripled from c3 months ago, up c8x since 12 months ago and up c475x since 5 years ago.

    Turning to central banker commentaries, the ECB’s governing council member Visco noted that the Eurozone low inflation “reflects very moderate wage dynamics in several economies, which are a consequence of still large labourmarket slack”. Elsewhere, he noted that ECB’s QE recalibration ‘will ensure a high degree of monetary accommodation’. Then onto Italy more specifically, he noted their internal surveys suggests a “gradual pick up of credit demand, supported by a recovery of investment” and core tier 1 ratios for Italian lenders have improved to 13.1% (from 11.5%), which partly supports S&P’s recent upgrade of Italy’s sovereign rating to BBB.

    Following up the indictments by Mueller from yesterday, Bloomberg noted former Trump adviser Papadopoulos claimed in an email that top Trump officials agreed to a pre-election meeting with representatives of the Russian President Putin. However, there was no indication such meeting took place and the email was NOT included in court documents as part of his guilty plea.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was in line to above expectations. The CB consumer confidence rose to 125.9 (vs. 121.3 expected) – marking a record 17 year high. In the details, the present situation index rose 4.2pt to 151.1 (highest since 2001) and the expectations index rose 6.1pt to 109.1 (highest since March). The October Chicago PMI also rose 1pt to a 6 year high of 66.2 (vs. 60 expected). Elsewhere, the 3Q employment cost index (Fed’s preferred metric of wage inflation) was in line at 0.7% qoq, while the August Corelogic house price index was slightly above expectations at 0.45% mom (vs. 0.4%), leaving an annual growth of 5.9% yoy.

    Across Europe, there was a deluge of macro data where broadly speaking inflation was lower than expected but GDP growth and unemployment beat expectations. In the Eurozone, the October core CPI was below expectations at 0.9% yoy (vs. 1.1%) even if some considered that there was noise in the series which included German holiday prices which might not persist. The 3Q GDP was higher than expected at 0.6% qoq (vs. 0.5%) and 2.5% yoy (vs. 2.4% expected) - the strongest rate of growth since 1Q11. The unemployment rate for September also beat at 8.9% (vs. 9% expected).

    In France, 3Q GDP was in line at 0.5% qoq, but data revisions to prior readings meant the annual growth was a tad higher at 2.2% yoy – highest since 2Q11. Elsewhere, the October CPI was in line at 0.1% mom and 1.2% yoy, while the September PPI was slightly above last month’s reading at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.4% previous). In Italy, the October CPI was below expectations at 0% mom (vs. 0.2%) and 1.1% yoy (vs. 1.3% expected) and the September PPI was also lower than the prior reading at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.5% previous). However, the September unemployment was in line at 11.1%. In the UK, the October Gfk consumer confidence reading was in line at -10.

    Looking at the day ahead, front and centre on Wednesday evening will be the FOMC meeting although it’s worth noting that there is no scheduled Yellen press conference after. Along with the meeting we’ll also get some important data releases in the US including the ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing print for October and monthly vehicle sales. In the UK October house price data and the manufacturing PMI will be out. Onto other events, UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox testifies before a parliamentary panel on plans for post-Brexit trade while BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso is due to speak. Facebook and Tesla are amongst the notable earnings reports.

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