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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: November 1

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 1, 2017 7:57 AM

    • NYC truck attack: Investigators scour driver’s background (AP)
    • Release of House tax bill delayed until Thursday (Reuters)
    • U.S. pursues direct diplomacy with North Korea despite Trump rejection (Reuters)
    • GOP Braces for ‘All Hell’ to Break Loose Over Tax Bill (BBG)
    • Former Trump adviser’s guilty plea could rattle White House (AP)
    • Disclosure of Papadopoulos’s Email Hunt Sheds Light on Quest for Clinton ‘Dirt’ (WSJ)
    • Brexit May Cost 75,000 U.K. Finance Jobs, Top Regulator Says (BBG)
    • Uber-SoftBank Deal in Jeopardy Over Kalanick’s Role (WSJ)
    • U.K. House Prices Stuck in Low Gear Amid Pressure on Incomes (BBG)
    • China’s Dandong Port Group Defaults on $150 Million in Bonds (WSJ)
    • Obamacare's Rising Premiums Will Hurt the Middle Class the Most (BBG)
    • Dodgers Force Game 7, Stifling Astros, 3-1 (WSJ)
    • Gold Bugs Embrace Bitcoin, Upending Retail Sellers (WSJ)
    • Razer CEO to Become a Billionaire With Li Ka-shing Backing (BBG)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Eight people were killed and at least a dozen injured on Tuesday when a truck mowed down pedestrians and cyclists on a lower Manhattan bike path in what officials said was a "cowardly act of terror," the deadliest attack in New York City since Sept. 11, 2001. on.wsj.com/2gTjndb

    - Three U.S. aircraft carriers are scheduled to travel near the Korean Peninsula soon, and the military may decide to keep them in the area for maneuvers that would coincide with President Donald Trump's coming visit to Asia, U.S. defense officials said. on.wsj.com/2gQNS3f

    - Rockwell Automation Inc has rejected a takeover bid by Emerson Electric Co worth roughly $27.5 billion, spurning a deal that would have combined two big U.S. makers of machines and software used in manufacturing. on.wsj.com/2gSvuae

    - Samsung Electronics Co shook up its senior ranks on Tuesday in a move that would replace all of its co-chief executives and strip its board chairman of any executive role for the first time as it looks to address concerns about a leadership vacuum at the top. on.wsj.com/2gTqOkz

    - Federal trade officials are recommending that the Trump administration impose an import tariff of up to 35 percent on solar panels to protect U.S. solar manufacturers from low-price imports that have undercut the companies' ability to compete. on.wsj.com/2gS6zDK

    FT

    Britain’s exit deal with the European Union “will probably favour the union on things like money”, Brexit secretary David Davis told members of the House of Lords on Tuesday, hinting that the UK will have to increase its opening 20-billion-euro ($23.27-billion) offer on the divorce bill to move talks on to the next phases.

    Fixed-odds betting terminals, which currently allow gamblers to place bets of up to 100 pounds ($132.77) every 20 seconds on games such as roulette, should have maximum stakes of between 2 pounds and 50 pounds, according to a government review into the gambling industry.

    Christopher Bailey, who fashioned Burberry Group Plc into a global label, is to leave the company in 2018, calling an early halt to what he had hoped would be a “wonderful” partnership with new chief executive Marco Gobbetti.

    NYT

    - Executives from Facebook Inc, Google and Twitter Inc appeared on Capitol Hill for the first time on Tuesday to publicly acknowledge their role in Russia's influence on the presidential campaign, but offered little more than promises to do better. Their reluctance frustrated lawmakers who sought stronger evidence that American elections will be protected from foreign powers. nyti.ms/2gS8FU8

    - The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Justice announced Tuesday that Exxon Mobil Corp will pay $2.5 million in fines for flaring gases at eight plants along the Gulf Coast. Agency officials said the announcement was evidence of the Trump administration's commitment to enforcing the nation's environmental laws. nyti.ms/2gQ0He5

    - National Public Radio has placed a top editor on leave after allegations emerged on Tuesday that he had sexually harassed multiple women while at The New York Times. nyti.ms/2gRCdRK

    - Google Docs threw some users for a loop on Tuesday when the service suddenly locked them out of their documents for violating Google's terms of service. The alerts were caused by a glitch, but they served as a stark reminder that not much is truly private in the cloud. nyti.ms/2gSrfvu

    - Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, stripped a half-dozen scientists and academics of advisory positions Tuesday and issued new rules barring anyone who receives EPA grant money from serving on panels that counsel the agency on scientific decisions. nyti.ms/2gS8Oa8

    - House Republicans delayed the rollout of their tax bill late on Tuesday, in a sign of early trouble for what party leaders had hoped would be a quick victory. nyti.ms/2gT6r6K


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Canadian retailer Metro Inc confirmed that bureau investigators were at its Montreal and Toronto offices "in an investigation that is also targeting other Canadian retailers as well as suppliers," spokeswoman Marie-Claude Bacon said, noting the bureau is looking into pricing. tgam.ca/2z3HgqF

    Backers of British Columbia liquefied natural gas projects say they will fight Ottawa's anti-dumping duty imposed on imported modules, warning that Canada is at risk of being shut out of the global LNG industry. tgam.ca/2z50UlY

    An Ontario court judge will be asked to dismiss all criminal charges against two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office accused of destroying government records related to the controversial cancellation of two gas-fired power plants. tgam.ca/2z3OvyR

    NATIONAL POST

    Natural gas producers in Alberta are frustrated with TransCanada Corp for changing the way it operates its gas pipeline network with little notice, which has led to massive commodity price swings. bit.ly/2z3HVIs

    Britain

    The Times

    - The head of the Financial Conduct Authority was criticised by MPs yesterday for slowness, complacency and methodological failings in its investigation into the scandal of small companies being deliberately mistreated by Royal Bank of Scotland. bit.ly/2z9SNXc

    - Vincent Tchenguiz has ended his long-running 2.2 billion pound ($2.92 billion) court battle against Kaupthing after reaching a confidential settlement with the failed Icelandic bank. bit.ly/2z8DBtq

    The Guardian

    - The UK's property market will take this week's expected rise in interest rates in its stride, according to ratings agency Moody's, but it warned that the outlook for the buy-to-let market has worsened significantly. bit.ly/2z9TRdE

    - The advertising group WPP Plc has lowered its growth forecasts for the third time this year amid shrinking client budgets, but said its UK business was benefiting from Brexit uncertainty. bit.ly/2z8EEd0

    The Telegraph

    - British fashion house Burberry Group Plc revealed that long-serving creative designer Christopher Bailey, 46, will step down next March from the board but will continue to provide "full support" to Burberry's team, which includes new boss Marco Gobetti, until the end of 2018. bit.ly/2z72w0E

    - BP Plc investors sent shares in the oil major to its highest price this year after the supermajor more than doubled its profits in the last three months, driven by a five-year high in earnings for its fuels, petrochemicals and refining businesses. bit.ly/2zamuYx

    Sky News

    - Learndirect, the former state-owned training provider, has won a last-ditch reprieve from its lenders as it seeks to rebuild its finances in the wake of a controversial report by the education watchdog. bit.ly/2z53Fnz

    - Banks will start taking "irreversible" decisions such as moving staff abroad if no Brexit transition deal is agreed by the end of this year, the head of the City watchdog has warned. bit.ly/2z8GDOk

    The Independent

    - The maximum stake on fixed-odds betting terminals will be reduced from 100 pounds to between 50 pounds and 2 pounds, the Government announced on Tuesday – a move designed to protect vulnerable gamblers. ind.pn/2z1zTjt

    - Cabin crew members of the Unite union working for British Airways' mixed fleet unit at Heathrow have accepted a pay deal by a majority of five to one. ind.pn/2z3dCS4

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/frontrunning-november-1
     
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    Gerald Celente – 2018 Predictions - Gold Will Hit a Bitcoin High
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Oct 31, 2017
    Renowned trends forecaster Gerald Celente predicts China will make big headlines in 2018. Celente points out, “China is not using petro-dollars. They are buying Russian oil, their biggest supplier, with yuan. You can cash in the yuan for gold. It’s the same with Iran and with Saudi Arabia. This is another reason that China is going to go further. You can start bringing your dollars to Walmart in a wheelbarrow because that’s what they will be worth. . . . What kept the dollar alive as the world reserve currency is that all the oil being traded is being bought in dollars. If you are paying for oil in other currencies . . . the Federal Reserve can’t keep printing up all the money that they want. They won’t have it out there as a reserve currency. You will see inflation skyrocket in this country, and gold will hit like a Bitcoin high. We believe it’s starting to happen.

    Join Greg Hunter as he interviews the Publisher of the Trends Journal, Gerald Celente, and hear about multiple other trends and predictions for 2018.

    Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

    Stay In contact with USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/join/

    All links are located on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/2018-predicti...
     
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    Christmas retail sales could slump for the first time in a decade if shoppers treat themselves to the $999 iPhone X instead of buying gifts for others
    • iPhone X could suck $30billion out of holiday spending this year, says analyst
    • Morgan Stanly analyst Katy Huberty says this could be an 'upgrade supercycle'
    • In response, Kmart launches early 'Holiday Blowout' and Walmart throws parties
    • Other analysts not convinced holiday sales will drop, predicting growth of 3-4%


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5041541/Could-iPhone-X-dent-retailer-Christmas-sales.html#ixzz4xGgXKKcj
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    REALIST NEWS - Trump Picks Smurfalicious Bankster Powel
    jsnip4



    Published on Nov 2, 2017
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-2-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Terrorism now reaches Colorado. Terrorism in the USA will prevent gold prices from a fall. Incoming US economic data releases suggest robust growth. Apart from the December interest rate hike, the chances of a March interest rate hike (by the Federal Reserve) will rise if October NFP comes in over 225,000. Political developments will shape the interest rate scenario. Everyone is calling global stock markets to correct, but the same is not happening. The longer it takes for global stock markets to correct, the chances of bubble formation will be there.
     
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    TVR [#429] 11-02-2017 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN: ALGO CHART SEGMENT
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Nov 2, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Rogue Mornings: The Truth Is Told, The Rout is On & The Next Stage (11/02/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 1 hour ago
    "V" and CJ share breaking news of former DNC Interim Chair Donna Brazile revelations of DNC takeover by HRC, how Washington DC is being exposed and potential next steps.

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

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    Oil Traders Set Sights on High Seas as Diesel Renaissance Is Born

    November 2, 2017 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    VladSV / Shutterstock.com


    By Heesu Lee and Debjit Chakraborty (Bloomberg) — It was only two years ago that the world’s biggest oil market was awash with diesel and profits from making the fuel cratered. Now the refined product is getting a new lease of life, and more demand is poised to emerge from the sea.

    With crude’s bull market being underpinned by diesel consumption, Asian refiners could soon be scrambling to meet further appetite as a maritime rule in 2020 seeks to replace dirtier fuel that runs tankers. While shippers could add technology that’ll clean up their traditional power source, it’ll mean investing millions of dollars in each vessel — an expense they may not be prepared to bear. Their other option is to use diesel.

    “By 2020 is too short a time to find an alternative other than to shift to marine gasoil,” said Rakesh Mehra, Dubai-based strategic advisor at Gulf Petrochem Group, a company that runs a refinery in the Middle East as well as trades fuels and operates storage terminals. “This will drive diesel demand and that’s going to stay.”

    The renaissance in diesel, also known as gasoil, has contributed to the surge in global benchmark Brent crude to the highest level in more than two years. It’s a far cry from 2015 when a flood of exports from China swamped the Asian market, dragging profits from making the fuel in the region to below $8 a barrel and the lowest level in at least five years.

    After the average annual diesel margin in Asia declined for the past three years, it has rebounded in 2017 to more than $12 a barrel as industrial activity picks up in the region. Unexpected refinery outages at plants from Europe to the U.S. due to fires and hurricanes have also contributed to a slump in stockpiles of the fuel. China’s exports, meanwhile, dropped in September to the lowest since January as domestic demand increased.

    More good news is coming in the form of the fight against pollution. The International Maritime Organization, a global shipping regulator, will cap the limit on sulfur content in fuel oil — a residue from the refining process that’s used to power ships — to 0.5 percent in 2020 from 3.5 percent now. One way of meeting the new emissions standards is to use an exhaust gas cleaning system, or scrubbers, that removes pollutants before they’re released into the atmosphere.

    Shipping Uncertainty
    Vessel owners may be skeptical about whether this technology, still in its infancy, will be economical in the long term. The uncertainty over how the rules will be implemented, as well as concerns the IMO could one day impose stricter regulations that render newly installed scrubbers obsolete, is keeping shippers on the sidelines, said Rahul Kapoor, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

    “The easiest option, therefore, is to switch over to gasoil,” Gulf Petrochem’s Mehra said. “Gasoil with 0.1 percent sulfur is easily available.”

    Most shippers will use less sulfurous diesel than spend $4 million to $10 million per ship to add scrubbers, Kapoor estimates. Just one out of every five ships that have come to the market in the last five years will install the cleaning system by 2020, said Suresh Sivanandam, a senior research manager for Asia refining at Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

    Diesel consumption in Asia, home to nine of the 10 largest container ports in the world, will rise by an annual average rate of 5 percent from 2020 through 2026, according to BMI Research. That compares with growth of 1.6 percent a year from 2017 to 2019.

    Profits in Asia from turning benchmark Dubai crude into diesel, known as the crack spread, more than doubled to $15.37 a barrel in September versus a record low in April 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2010. It was at $12.35 as of 3:26 p.m. Seoul time on Thursday. Inventories in Asia are also tightening, with onshore middle distillate stockpiles in Singapore shrinking to 11.5 million barrels, down 22 percent from their peak in 2015, the year China began significantly increasing its overseas diesel shipments.

    “These regulations are definitely good for refiners, especially in Asia,” said Arun Kumar Sharma, finance director of Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner. “Opening up of a new market for gasoil will further improve diesel cracks.”

    Demand is likely to gain by as much as 300,000 barrels a day for gasoil in 2020, while fuel oil consumption may drop by 350,000 barrels daily, according to Ehsan Ul-Haq, a London-based director of crude oil and refined products at Resource Economist.

    “By around 2020, the diesel market even looks tight unless refiners do something about it,” said Ul-Haq. “And there’s not much time left.”

    © 2017 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/oil-traders-set-sights-on-high-seas-as-diesel-renaissance-is-born/
     
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    Apple is worth almost a TRILLION dollars after the the company made $10.7billion in the last three months - and the Trump tax plan would mean it would be worth even more
    • Apple Inc revealed its latest financial results that says company has $368billion in cash alone and earned $10.7billion in last three months
    • Company's shares increased more than 3 percent after hours, as the market capitalization of the company crested $900 billion
    • But under Trump's tax plan, Apple would be worth so much more, as it would become a huge beneficiary of it
    • Tax plan will lower corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent
    • Plus, it calls for a one-time tax rate of 12 percent on cash returns and 5 percent on noncash for corporate money repatriated from overseas
    • News comes as Apple plans to release new iPhone X globally on Friday


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5045043/Apple-worth-TRILLION-dollars.html#ixzz4xKCM4NY5
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Dollar Rebounds, Futures Rise Ahead Of Surge In Payrolls

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 3, 2017 7:02 AM


    One day after the dollar slumped sharply on initial disappointment with the GOP tax plan, the greenback has rebounded ahead of a nonfarm payrolls report that is expected to show the US economy gained over 300,000 jobs in the post-hurricane rebound, and as investors reassessed the latest news on U.S. tax-cut plans. Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, US equity futures were as usual in the green, while oil headed for an eight-month high on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts.

    In an otherwise quiet session, the biggest overnight news was President Nicolas Maduro announcing Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment. While the risk of contagion is low, the emerging-market index of currencies declined for the first time this week. In early trading, the PDVSA dollar bonds maturing 2027 plunged at the start of trading, slumping 10 cents on the dollar to 20 cents in early London trading. As a result, EMFX weakened across the board with some analysts noting the Venezuela debt restructuring as a driver, though most weakness occurred after Turkey’s inflation report.

    In global macro, markets are in their usual pre-NFP lull, with most G-10 currencies staying within yesterday’s ranges. The weakest quarter for Australian retail sales in seven years sent the Aussie lower and bonds climbing. The Aussie dollar dropped as much as 0.5 percent back below 77 U.S. cents and bond yields extended declines as traders pushed back bets on the timing for an interest-rate increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was steady in Asia, amid modest moves in most G-10 currencies, before edging higher with the start of the London session as fast-money names added dollar longs before U.S. jobs report. Treasury futures were stuck in tight ranges through Asian hours, on very muted volumes, just 37% of recent averages, with cash markets closed for a Japan holiday; as Bloomberg reports, TSYs came under pressure in London, widening vs Germany.

    European stocks are little changed, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, as investors weigh earnings results and the latest U.S. tax-cut plans. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gains less than 0.1%. Shares of automakers are among the biggest sector gainers, led by a 4% advance in Renault after France cut its stake in the company. A retreat in Austria's Erste Group and French Societe Generale pulled banks lower after the Paris-based lender said revenue from the equities division tumbled 19% from a year earlier.

    Asian stocks outside Japan, which was closed for a holiday, edged higher and were poised for a weekly gain on the back of technology stocks. MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan rose 0.1% to 556.9. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. led gains Friday as Apple’s forecast for holiday sales buoyed suppliers in Asia. Chinese stocks capped their biggest weekly decline in three months, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff. In Hong Kong, Cnooc and PetroChina advanced this week as oil extended gains from the highest close in more than two years. The Philippines stock benchmark declined from yesterday’s record-high close, which followed a two-day holiday. “The index’s rise has been too steep so this is a healthy correction,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc.

    A quick look at China, where local stocks capped the biggest weekly decline since Aug. 11, led by brokerages and technology shares, in the wake of the Communist Party Congress and a bond market selloff. The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.3% at the close, extending retreat this week to 1.3%, while the ChiNext Index dropped 0.8%, taking the loss over last five sessions to 3.3%; that’s most since July 14. Curiously the drop happened even as the PBOC skipped reverse repos to offer 404 billion yuan of one-year MLF loans, taking total liquidity injections to over a trillion yuan this week.

    Meanwhile, looking at the day ahead, October payrolls probably surged in October, according to sellside consensus (full preview here) rebounding from a hurricane-depressed September, while wage growth is expected to continue. The shift in focus to data follows a drop in Treasury yields Thursday as President Donald Trump confirmed that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is his pick to chair the central bank.

    Oil extended gains from the highest close in more than 2 years on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts when ministers meet in Vienna at the end of the month. Brent crude gained over half a percent to $61.05 per barrel. The benchmark hit $61.70 on Wednesday, its highest since July 2015. U.S. crude gained 0.6 percent to $54.90, almost 30 percent above its June lows. Iraq, the 2nd-biggest OPEC producer, backed extending the curbs for further 9 months, Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi says in Baghdad. While ministers from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait say this week longer cuts are needed, consensus on how long to prolong is yet to be decided. A decision this month on an extension is not certain, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. “I think it’s a done deal, the only issue to be discussed is that, do they extend it for six months or nine months,” Fereidun Fesharaki, founder and chairman of energy industry consultant FGE, says in a Bloomberg TV interview.

    Elsewhere in commodity markets, spot gold was steady at $1,276.81 an ounce, after touching its highest since Oct. 20 at$1,284.10 on Thursday. London nickel prices renewed their advance, putting the metal on course for a gain of nearly 10 percent this week and 27 percent year-to-date on expectations of bullish demand from the electric vehicle battery sector.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • Markets await NFP with the Street looking for a strong bounce-back this month after hurricane-related disruptions last month
    • GBP struggles to regain much ground against its major despite an impressive services PMI release
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Non-Manufacturing, ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Kashkari
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.05% to 2,578
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 395.37
    • MSCI Asia up 0.01% to 169.98
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.1% to 556.89
    • Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,539.12
    • Topix up 0.4% to 1,794.08
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 28,603.61
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,371.74
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 33,680.28
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,959.88
    • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,557.97
    • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.357%
    • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1645
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.531%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.47%
    • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $60.86/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.02% to $1,275.91
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 94.80
    Top Overnight News
    • With a resume steeped in industry experience and long- standing relationships with financial executives, Jerome Powell is expected to take a measured approach to rolling back regulations adopted in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis. He’s seen as a practical, not ideological, watchdog who will be able to get things done
    • Bond managers welcome Powell as dovish, deregulatory Fed Chair
    • Apple Fired Up About iPhone X Sales; Strong Payrolls Growth Anticipated; Venezuela Will Restructure All Debts
    • Apple Inc. is fixing supply problems with the iPhone X, its most important device in years, setting the company up for a better-than-expected holiday period
    • President Nicolas Maduro said Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment, blaming U.S. sanctions for making it impossible to find new financing
    • House Republicans announced a tax proposal Thursday that would cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20 percent, reduce most of the individual tax brackets, and cap the mortgage- interest deduction on new purchases of homes
    • The U.S. real estate industry reeled as the House Republican tax bill proposed capping the mortgage-interest deduction, a long-cherished incentive many Americans have had to buy a house
    • Singaporean prosecutors and police are examining Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s relationship with the Malaysian state investment fund at the center of global money laundering probes
    • BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent says in BBC radio interview that U.K. may need higher rates to get inflation back to 2 percent goal: “Given the outlook currently, we anticipate we’ll need maybe a couple of more rate rises to get inflation back on track while at the same time supporting the economy,” he said
    • China’s October Caixin services PMI came in at 51.2 vs estimate of 50.6; Composite PMI at 51.0 vs estimate of 51.4
    • Singaporean prosecutors and police are examining Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s relationship with the Malaysian state investment fund at the center of global money laundering probes, people with knowledge of the matter said
    • ECB’s Nowotny: inflation is moving in the right direction; economy is improving substantially, but we’re not there yet
    • U.K. Oct. Services PMI: 55.6 vs 53.3 est; Markit notes cost pressures eased -- a sign future inflation may cool, which would lower probability of additional imminent rate hikes
    • China Oct. Caixin services PMI 51.2 vs 50.6 prev.
    It was a very quiet session in Asia with newsflow and tier 1 data releases on the lighter side. The ASX 200 (+0.5%) had been supported by mining names as iron ore prices continued to rise amid reports that capacity curbs in top steelmaking city Tangshan may fall short of expectations. Mixed trade in China with the Hang Seng (+0.3%) marginally higher while the Shanghai Comp (- 0.3%) dismissed the firmer than expected Services PMI reading. Elsewhere, Apple suppliers (Hon Hai and Largan Precision) in Taiwan have outperformed, which initially lifted the Taiwanese Index (-0.1%) after strong earnings from Apple. As a reminder, Japanese markets were closed for culture day. PBoC sets CNY mid-point at 6.6072 (Prev. 6.6196) PBoC drains a net CNY 110bln via open market operations this week vs net CNY 390bln injection last week.

    Top Asian News
    • PBOC Moves to Steady Money Supply After Sovereign Bond Tumble
    • China Is Said to Investigate Leshi for Suspected IPO Fraud
    • En+ IPO Priced at $14/Share, Implying $8b Valuation
    • JPMorgan Says It Boosted Greater China Equity Team 20% in 2017
    • China Steps Up Scrutiny of Overseas Deals as M&A Persists
    • IPhone X Resellers Make a Quick Buck on the Streets of Hong Kong
    • Indonesia Threatens EU With Retaliation in Palm Oil ‘Trade War’
    European equities kicked off the final trading session of the week of an a relatively directionless footing (Eurostoxx 50 flat) as markets take a breather from what’s been a relatively busy week and look ahead to today’s US jobs report. In terms of sector specifics, energy names outperform amid support from recent upside in Crude prices whilst financials lag amid lacklustre earnings from SocGen which have sent company shares to the bottom of the CAC with losses of 3.2%. Elsewhere, Altice shares are seen lower by 7.9%, amid a disappointing update which saw the Co. downbeat on their earnings guidance. Bunds saw little in the way of noteworthy price action at the Eurex open with prices relatively contained as with other asset classes across the continent. Thereafter, paper took the lead from gilts which saw a further extension on yesterday’s gains as markets continue to digest yesterday’s BoE announcement. Thereafter performance in Bunds diverged from UK paper after running into resistance. Central bank speak from the likes of Weidmann, Nowotny and Broadbent has done little to inspire any further price action in the fixed income space. Elsewhere, talk in the market suggests that Portugal are expected to tap the market next week with around EUR 1bln of supply.

    Top European News
    • Air France-KLM Profit Surges 39% as Tourism, Fares Rebound
    • TP ICAP Loses CFO Baddeley After Just 18 Months in the Job
    • Vivendi Is Limited Again by Government on Telecom Italia
    • Smith & Nephew Plans to Review Cost Base Under Investor Pressure
    In currencies, the main data point for FX markets has come in the form of UK services PMI which printed at 55.6 vs. Exp. 53.3. This subsequently lifted GBP/USD higher by around 25 pips amid the potentially encouraging view of Q4 UK GDP that can be deduced from this reading. However, the data wasn’t enough to prove too much sustained reprieve for GBP as sellers largely retraced a bulk of the move. Elsewhere, the USD index trades modestly higher ahead of today’s US jobs report but moves could be contained due to USD 5bln in option expiries between 113.80-114.50. AUD remains softer with AUD/USD extending losses below 0.7700 following disappointing domestic retail sales figures.

    In commodities, oil prices have edged higher throughout European trade in a continuation its recent trend with the growing sense that the current production cuts will be extended until the end of 2018 (OPEC to meet on November 30th). Gold prices have traded in sideways fashion with the price of the precious metal up slightly. Iron ore prices continued to rise amid reports that capacity curbs in top steelmaking city Tangshan may fall short of expectation.

    Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a busy end to the week for data. The highlight is this afternoon with the October employment report in the US including that latest monthly nonfarm payrolls print. Away from that we’ve got the UK’s remaining October PMIs and the ISM non-manufacturing, final durable and capital goods orders for September, factory orders for September and the final PMIs in the US. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari will also speak in the afternoon and the ECB’s Coeure in the evening. President Trump is also due to depart on his 11-day trip to Asia.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 313,000, prior -33,000
      • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
      • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.9%
      • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 63.1%, prior 63.1%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.3%
    • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $43.2b deficit, prior $42.4b deficit
    • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.9, prior 55.9; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.7
    • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 58.5, prior 59.8
    • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 1.%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.4%;
    • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.0%, prior 2.2%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.7%; Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.3%
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    One thing that caught our eye yesterday when dissecting the first Bank of England rate hike in a decade was just how different the world looked only ten years ago. George Bush and Gordon Brown were the respective President and Prime Minister, the average price of a London home was ‘just’ £261k compared to £471k now, Rihanna was number one in the charts with the hit ‘Umbrella’ and the Apple iPhone was less than a week old. That iPhone also ‘only’ cost £269 which looks like a bargain compared to the price of the iPhone X which debuts in stores today at £1000. Following his house completion yesterday, it’s probably best to refrain from letting Jim know just how much he’s spent on Apple products in the last ten years.

    A decade ago in markets, 10y Gilts were also trading at 5.520% and Sterling would have bought you $2.011. Fast forward to this morning and following what was a decidedly dovish hike, a sharp rally across the Gilt curve has seen 10y Gilts fall to 1.259% (-8.3bps) and 2y Gilts to 0.399% (-7.8bps). Sterling (-1.40%) also suffered its biggest one-day fall since early June and is now over 4% off the September highs. That in turn helped the FTSE 100 to a +0.90% return. We’ll have more on the BoE further down but arguably the more important news for global markets yesterday was that from across the pond.

    The first was the hotly anticipated House draft tax bill. As expected it included a corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 20%. The WSJ noted that this will also be permanent with no set expiry date. Existing offshore cash piles will betaxed at 12% which is a higher rate than any proposed by Republicans in the past year according to the FT. The plan didn’t make any significant changes to 410(k) retirement plans and won’t include changes to the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate to purchase health insurance. Mortgage-interest deductions on new home sales would be capped at $500k compared to $1m currently for couples. Elsewhere, businesses can immediately write off the full cost of new equipment for five years and University endowment income will also to be taxed for large endowments.

    So it appears that the bill had the minimum that the market expected but also that there wasn’t a huge amount to get excited about. Unsurprisingly there are plenty of question marks about it passing in its current form. The US Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business have both criticised it for small businesses while Democratic minority leader Chuck Schumer said that the plan “exacerbates the unfairness and inequality in our tax code”.

    The initial reaction in markets was for equities to sell off, the USD weaken and Treasury yields fall. However those moves were mostly reversed by the end of play as investors parsed through the details. By the close the S&P 500 was up +0.02% after being down as much as -0.50%. A big contributor to the initial weakness was a near 4% plunge for homebuilders with the mortgage-interest deduction news although like the broader index that sector did manage to recover pretty much completely into the close. The Dow closed +0.35% and Nasdaq -0.02% while the small cap Russell 2000 index finished +0.25%. The USD index also closed -0.14% after being down about -0.40% while 10y Treasury yields finished at 2.345% (-2.7bp) after trading as low as 2.334%.

    In terms of the next steps, mark-ups to the bill are expected to start as soon as Monday in the House as Republican leaders begin the task of convincing others to support the bill. The unveiling of the proposed legislation in full is expected in a vote in the House of Representatives next week. Finally, President Trump reiterated his expectation that the tax bill will become law by Christmas. Late last night we also got official confirmation that Jerome Powell will be the next Fed Chair, a decision which appeared to be well flagged in the last couple of weeks. In our economists’ report last week they argued that a Powell-led Fed makes most sense. They highlight that Powell would provide the highest degree of continuity to current policy and as such the market should take the announcement largely in stride, keeping financial conditions easy and providing little disruption to an economy that is experiencing solid growth. In addition, the team also highlight that Powell has now had five years’ experience working inside the Fed, and by all reports very effectively on both macroeconomics/monetary policy and on regulatory policy. Evidence from speeches also suggest that Powell would prove to be a more than capable communicator.

    Finally, on a much more micro front, after the bell last night, Apple’s share price rose over 3% in extended trading after the company guided to a higher than expected sales forecast for the upcoming December quarter, in part as the company ramp up production for the iPhone X, so your wait time for it should reduce! Elsewhere, Time Warner fell 3.75% yesterday after the WSJ reported that the US Department of Justice is considering blocking its sale to AT&T.

    So as the market continues to absorb all of the newsflow in the last 24 hours you could almost be forgiven for forgetting that we’ve got another payrolls Friday to worry about today. In terms of what to expect, the consensus is running at 310k for payrolls which as a reminder follows that hurricane-impacted -33k print back in September. If the consensus proved to be spot on then that will actually be the biggest monthly reading in two years. Our US economists are slightly below market, albeit at a still solid 250k. They note that there is however still a considerable amount of uncertainty around this expectation. Post Hurricane Katrina, which exhibited a similar plunge in job growth in the September 2005 print, it took until November 2005 for job growth to return to its earlier trend. Indeed it’s worth noting that the range of street expectations is anywhere from 120k to 400k so the street is a bit all over the place as to what to expect. As always keep an eye on other components of the report including average hourly earnings (+0.2% mom expected).

    This morning in Asia markets are ending the week a bit mixed. The Hang Seng (+0.30%) and ASX 200 (+0.48%) are up modestly while the Kospi (-0.10%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.74%) are down as we type. Meanwhile, the Nikkei is closed today for the annual Culture day and US equity futures are a tad higher. In other news, Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has announced plans for a restructure and refinance of the country’s roughly $100bn debt in an address to the nation.

    Moving on. Prior to the BoE yesterday we received the final October manufacturing PMIs in Europe. There was little in the way of any last minute surprises however with the Eurozone reading revised down a very modest 0.1pts to 58.5. That compares to 58.1 in September and is the highest reading since February 2011. The biggest revision at the country level was in France (56.1 versus 56.7 flash) however that reading means that it is flat versus September. The same can be said for Germany (60.6 versus 60.5 flash) while in the periphery the most notable upside surprise came in Italy (57.8 vs. 56.5 expected) which rose 1.5pts from the month prior and to an 80-month high. Spain (55.8 vs. 54.8 expected) was also a full point above expectations and touched a 29-month high.

    Staying in Europe, Germany’s October unemployment rate was in line at 5.6% and remained at its post reunification low, while the UK’s October construction PMI was above expectations at 50.8 (vs. 48.5 expected).Across the

    pond, in the US, the 3Q nonfarm productivity was above expectations at 3.0% qoq (vs. 2.6% expected) - the largest increase in three years - and lifted through-year growth to 1.5% yoy. The 3Q unit labour cost also slightly beat at 0.5% qoq (vs. 0.4% expected). Elsewhere, the weekly initial jobless claims (229k vs. 235k expected) and continuing claims (1,884k vs. 1,894k expected) prints were broadly in line.

    Before we look at the day ahead, Brexit newsflow took a bit of a backseat yesterday but it’s still worth noting the comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis yesterday. He noted that he has spoken to Guy Verhofstadt (EU Parliament negotiator) about pulling together an ‘associate citizenship’ which in theory would allow visa free working rights. Such a deal would be in relation to a transitional arrangement.

    Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a busy end to the week for data. The highlight is this afternoon with the October employment report in the US including that latest monthly nonfarm payrolls print. Away from that we’ve got the UK’s remaining October PMIs and the ISM non-manufacturing, final durable and capital goods orders for September, factory orders for September and the final PMIs in the US. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari will also speak in the afternoon and the ECB’s Coeure in the evening. President Trump is also due to depart on his 11-day trip to Asia.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-03/dollar-rebounds-futures-rise-ahead-expected-surge-payrolls
     
  22. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: November 3

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 3, 2017 7:57 AM

    • House GOP Readies for Tax-Bill Battle (WSJ)
    • GOP’s United Front on Tax Cuts Masks Divisions (BBG)
    • Republican tax plan a blow to Democratic states, officials say (Reuters)
    • As Trump Embarks on Asia Tour, North Korea Looms Large (WSJ)
    • Apple Store Lines Return as iPhone X Debuts (WSJ)
    • There’s Some Good News About 401(k)s in the Tax Bill (BBG)
    • iPhone Xs Are Already Being Resold in Hong Kong (BBG)
    • CNN to Launch Subscriptions for Digital News (WSJ)
    • Mr. Ordinary: Who Is Jerome Powell, Trump’s Fed Pick? (WSJ)
    • U.S. bomber drills aggravate North Korea ahead of Trump's Asia visit (Reuters)
    • Bitcoin Is the ‘Very Definition’ of a Bubble, Credit Suisse CEO Says (BBG)
    • Goldman Retreats From Options as Stock Derivatives Trading Struggles (WSJ)
    • Here’s a Juicy Tax Break. Now, How to Keep Everybody From Claiming It? (BBG)
    • Dark Side at Fidelity: Women Describe a Culture of Revenge (BBG)
    • Get Ready for an Appalachian Gas Bonanza (BBG)
    • PDVSA Bonds Slump After Venezuela Calls for Restructuring: Chart (BBG)
    • Drug Deaths Rose More Last Year Than in the Previous Four Combined (BBG)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Two U.S. B-1B bombers flew near North Korea on Thursday, alongside Japanese and South Korean jet fighters, provoking anger from Pyongyang ahead of President Donald Trump's closely watched trip to Asia. on.wsj.com/2gZ02qP

    - The Justice Department is laying the groundwork for a potential lawsuit challenging AT&T Inc's planned acquisition of Time Warner Inc if the government and companies can't agree on a settlement, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2ipyGuh

    - T-Mobile US Inc and Sprint Corp are working to salvage their potential blockbuster merger, people familiar with the matter said, days after Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son appeared to call off the talks. on.wsj.com/2gZNq2Q

    - General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co have been contacted as part of a Justice Department probe into job-training programs set up jointly with the industry's biggest autoworker union, the companies said Thursday. on.wsj.com/2gZF1MR

    FT

    Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins was suspended on Thursday evening by his party which is investigating unspecified allegations against the veteran politician.

    At the trial of three former senior executives of Britain’s biggest retailer Tesco Plc, Chief Executive Dave Lewis told of his “surprise” and “shock” when, three weeks into his job, the supermarket’s top lawyer showed him a document that is now at the centre of one of Britain’s highest-profile prosecutions for fraud.

    The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years on Thursday but said it expected only “very gradual” further increases as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, sending sterling down sharply.

    U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday named Fed Governor Jerome Powell as his nominee to become head of the U.S. central bank, breaking with precedent by denying Janet Yellen a second term but signalling a continuation of her cautious monetary policies.

    NYT

    - The Republican tax proposal has clouded the outlook for electric vehicles in the United States. The congressional plan presented on Thursday, which would abolish a $7,500 federal income-tax credit for electric vehicles, arrives just as automakers are gearing up to expand their lineups. nyti.ms/2gY7rqv

    - As Apple Inc reported revenue and profit increases that beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter, the company said it was also seeing strong demand for the iPhone X, as well as for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus models, which it unveiled in September. nyti.ms/2h04qG0

    - The Trump administration will promote coal, natural gas and nuclear energy as an answer to climate change at a presentation during a United Nations global warming conference this month, the White House confirmed Thursday. nyti.ms/2gZH2IV

    - Travel website TripAdvisor Inc has apologized to a Texas woman for repeatedly deleting her review of a Mexican resort that detailed how she had been raped there by a security guard. nyti.ms/2gXVdxU

    - India's Paytm unveiled an updated version of its service on Friday that integrates chat features, including photo and video sharing, into its market-leading digital wallet. nyti.ms/2gYsY27

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    BuildDirect.com Tecnologies Inc has filed for creditor protection, days after the sudden departure of founder and CEO Jeff Booth. It's the second crash of a west coast Canadian e-commerce company this year, following the demise of online shoe retailer Shoes.com Technologies Inc. tgam.ca/2z9JvbK

    The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed final tariffs averaging 20.83 per cent against most Canadian shipments of softwood lumber into the United States, intensifying trade tensions between the two countries. tgam.ca/2zadFM8

    Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd's train crews have voted down a one-year contract, dealing a setback to chief executive officer Keith Creel's stated attempt to improve poor relations with the freight hauler's biggest union. tgam.ca/2zao2Q1

    NATIONAL POST

    Bombardier Inc has landed its first CSeries jet order in 18 months, a move the company says was bolstered by its blockbuster partnership with Airbus SE, but the company will deliver fewer jets than anticipated this year due to delays related to production ramp up. bit.ly/2zcAw9R

    Britain

    The Times

    - Chief executive of Tesco Plc, Dave Lewis, said he was "surprised" and "shocked" to be told only 19 days after starting his new job that the grocer had misstated its profit forecast by nearly 250 million pounds ($326.33 million). bit.ly/2iqMd4D

    - Carmaker Volkswagen AG is looking at opening a British bank to help fund sales of its cars in UK after Brexit. Talks with the Bank of England are expected to lead to Volkswagen making a formal application for a banking licence that will allow it for the first time to take savers' money. bit.ly/2ipyRpo

    The Guardian

    - Hundreds of trainee GPs have not received their salaries because of the delays by outsourcing company Capita Plc, which holds a contract to administer training grants for GPs through a body called Primary Care Services England. bit.ly/2iqpTII

    - Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond has joined an activist investor Christen Ager-Hanssen, seeking to oust the board and chief executive of Johnston Press Plc. bit.ly/2iqGXy9

    The Telegraph

    - Luxury furniture company, Oka, is on the verge of being put up for sale after receiving a number of unsolicited approaches from would-be buyers. Estimates put the value of the business at more than 40 million pounds. bit.ly/2ioI8yb

    - Problems in Asia and a troublesome bingo contract have forced gaming and spread-betting company Playtech Plc to issue a profit warning sending the shares plunging by a fifth. bit.ly/2iqeqsy

    Sky News

    - Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Government Investment Corporation (GIC) is in talks to buy a 10 percent stake in OakNorth, the first of Britain's new generation of "challenger banks" to hit a coveted $1 billion valuation. bit.ly/2iqMqVt

    - Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has begun making inquiries into events at Telit Communications Plc, which makes products enabling access to the Internet of Things (IoT), weeks after its chief executive departed amid doubts about his true identity. bit.ly/2iqfNHL

    The Independent

    - Bank of England has issued a fresh set of warnings about the economic implications of Brexit, reiterating that the UK's split from the European Union will probably hamper productivity and slow growth. ind.pn/2iqEBzj

    - The Bank of England has hiked its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than a decade. While the move was widely expected, it will affect millions of households as rates on savings, mortgages and other loans change. ind.pn/2iqOMnh

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-03/frontrunning-november-3
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 11.3.17
    https://dealbreaker.com/2017/11/opening-bell-11-3-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 11/03
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/11/links-11317-2.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 11/03
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: November 3, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/11/morning-news-november-3-2017.html

    RR - Next Year Looks Great If We're Smart About It 11/03
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-03/next-year-looks-great-if-we-re-smart-about-it

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Jobs Report To Show Storm Recovery 11/03
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4120022-wall-street-breakfast-jobs-report-show-storm-recovery

    MtM - Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data 11/03
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/11/dollar-firms-ahead-of-what-is-expected.html
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-3-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Bitcoin is the new Las Vegas for traders. Bitcoin has a lot of upside potential. Bitcoin’s can give four digit returns in the next twelve months. But risk of sharp price falls will test the nerve of traders. I do not see a sharp rise in gold prices at the moment. Wars will be needed for gold prices to zoom in the short term. Long term the gold bullish trend is intact. Spurt in bitcoin’s will prevent the super rise in industrial metals as well. Fundamentally industrial metals are bullish. The pace of rise of Industrial metals will reduce for the next six months.

    Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change
    By: GoldCore
    – Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years
    – President Trump announces Jerome Powell as his choice to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve
    – Most investors outside the US Dollar and Euro see gold prices climb after busy week of central bank news
    – Inflation now at five-year high of 3%
    – Inflation, low-interest rate, debt crises and bail-ins still threaten savers and pensioners
     
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    Sears, Kmart to close 63 more stores in January 12 / 37
    [​IMG]
    Fortune

    Natasha Bach
    49 mins ago



    Sears’s descent continues.

    The company announced on Thursday that it plans to close more Sears and Kmart stores around the country.

    A Sears spokesperson told Fox that the company plans to “close some unprofitable stores as we transform our business model so that our physical store footprint and our digital capabilities match the needs and preferences of our members.”

    Sears has been struggling for several years, closing dozens and dozens of stores as its business has deteriorated. Fox reports that Sears Holdings, the parent company of Sears and Kmart, hasn’t turned a profit since 2010. Just this week, Sears CEO Eddie Lampert lent the company $60 million from his personal hedge fund. Sears endured more bad news earlier this month when it cut ties with appliance maker Whirlpool after more than a century of selling its products.

    At the end of July, the company operated 1,250 stores in U.S. Thursday’s announcement will deliver a blow to that figure as the company said it’ll shutter an additional 45 Kmart stores and 18 Sears stores across the country in late January.

    Sears also announced this week that everything in its Sears and Kmart stores would be going on sale. The “first-of-their-kind” promotions will reportedly range from 10% to 50% discounts at Sears, and 10%- to 40%-off sales at Kmart. The sales will run through the Thanksgiving-Black Friday weekend.

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...es-in-january/ar-AAuojYI?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
     
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    COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - November 3, 2017
    By: GoldSeek.com
    COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - November 3, 2017

    Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold Ends Barely Lower on the Week
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold gained $3.50 to $1279.70 just after 8:30AM EST before it fell back to $1265.70 in late morning New York trade and then edged back higher into the close, but it still ended with a loss of 0.48%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.785 and ended with a loss of 1.64%.
     
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    SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap.............

    We're Being PLAYED by Bankers & Media | Craig Hemke
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Nov 3, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    "We're all just pawns being played by the bankers and their media," Craig Hemke tells Silver Doctors on this week's SD Metals & Markets.

    Hemke says the gold cartel is trying to break gold below its 200-day moving average. But he thinks it unlikely gold will break below $1240. He gives his new forecast for precious metals going to the yearend.

    Hemke says the economy is not doing as well as the mainstream would want us to believe. "We're all just pawns being played by the bankers and their media," Craig Hemke says.

    Articles mentioned in this interview:

    - Nothing Really Matters, Anyone Can See: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8...

    - Bullion Banks Once Again Target Gold's 200-Day Moving Average: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/bull...
     
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    This Will Be Huge for Silver and Gold
    Silver Fortune



    Published on Nov 3, 2017
    Who is the 2nd most powerful individual in the U.S.?

    Support this channel by using this promo code for a 10 oz. silver bar at spot from SD Bullion https://sdbullion.com/sf (You must be logged in for the code to work)
     
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    Global Stocks Drift Lower As US Futures Rebound From Overnight Scare, Oil At 2 Year Highs

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 6, 2017 7:09 AM


    Following an early shaky start, which saw the Hang Seng tumble as much as 1.6% driven by weakness in financials and real estate names following the latest warning by PBOC governor Zhou about "sudden, complex, hidden, contagious, hazardous" risks In markets and a decline in local real estate prices, and pressure global risk, US equity futures have recouped all losses and are back to unchanged on monday morning, as President Trump continues on his first official trip to Asia. An "anti-corruption" purge in Saudi Arabia, including the arrest of Prince Alwaleed bin Talal will put stocks including Citigroup, Twitter and Apple - some of his major holdings - in focus according to Bloomberg. it also helped sent oil prices to the highest level since July 2015. In company news, talks between Sprint’s majority owner, SoftBank, to combine the carrier with T-Mobile US collapsed over the weekend.


    Following a torrid weekend for newsflow, when among other things we learned that NY Fed president Bill Dudley is retiring, Monday morning has been a far more subdued affair, and European markets have enjoyed a quiet start to the week, apart from ongoing speculation over Dudley’s departure; USD unwinds small overnight rally, with USD/JPY retracing gains seen after Trump’s comments on trade initially weakens JPY; GBP/USD approaches high set on Friday in reaction to non-farm payrolls. European stocks hold small losses across the board, banks underperforms. Telecom sector also weakens after Deutsche Telekom falls 3.7%, spurred by collapse of the Sprint/T-Mobile deal. Overnight gains in iron ore futures helped support mining stocks and other base metals. As Bloomberg's rates commentators note, reduced supply this week drives up core EGBs, led by bund futures; USTs rise in tandem. Large BTP/bund block trade pushes peripheral spreads marginally wider.


    European stocks were mixed before edging slightly lower after their seventh weekly advance in eight, even as the latest European PMI prints indicated strong survey momentum has continued at the start of the fourth quarter. Basic resource shares outperformed as the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to the highest since March, but they were offset by retreating banks and telecom companies.

    [​IMG]


    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell less than 0.1%, with miners headed for their highest level since January 2013, and leading gains as they track metal prices higher. SBM Offshore slides after making a provision of $238m in relation to a reopened investigation into legacy issues and Unaoil, based on discussions with the U.S. Department of Justice.

    News out of Asia was a dominant theme for many assets, with inflation comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, remarks on excessive leverage from his Chinese counterpart Zhou Xiaochuan and the grievances on trade from Trump. The yen declined before erasing the loss, and stocks in the region were mixed. Asian stocks edged lower for a second consecutive session after China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that the mainland’s financial system is becoming significantly more vulnerable due to high leverage. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1% to 169.72. Financial stocks led the decline, with AIA Group Ltd. being one of the biggest drags. Westpac Banking Corp. also fell after its full-year profit missed estimates. The Topix index retreated from the highest level in more than a decade as technical indicators suggest the gauge is overheating.

    “Zhou highlighting concerns of excess leverage and thus more regulation is weighing down on stocks,” said James Soutter, a Melbourne-based fund manager at K2 Asset Management Ltd. “If they do that, it might slow down China’s growth, which may impact the region.” Gains by technology stocks such as Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Sony Corp. helped pare the earlier decline of as much as 0.6 percent in MSCI’s broadest gauge of Asian stocks. MISC Bhd rose as much as 8 percent, the most in four years, after reporting a surge in profit for the third quarter. Analysts upgraded the stock after highlighting improvement in all business

    Oh, and speaking of that Hang Seng early drop, don't worry: the BTFDers emerged, and Hong Kong’s benchmark gauge erased a drop of as much as 1.6% to close little changed. AAC Technologies Holdings and Tencent Holdings climbed while the city’s developers slumped; AAC Technologies surges 10% to a record price, while Tencent adds 2.5%. As a result, the Hang Seng Index closes little changed at 28,596.80 even as Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 0.7%, paring an earlier loss of 2%. Additionally, the Shanghai Composite Index adds 0.5%, erasing a retreat of 0.5% while the ChiNext Index added 1%.

    Among the key weekend events, a helicopter transporting eight Saudi officials including Prince Mansour bin Muqrin (Deputy Governor of the Asir Province) reportedly crashed near Abha. Additionally, Prince Alaweed bin Talal who is the largest shareholder of Citi and the second largest shareholder of 21st Century Fox was among 10 other princes and 4 ministers were arrested on Saturday night. This has been billed as a corruption crackdown, although what it really is, is a power grab from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    In the UK, Chancellor Hammond is said to scrap plans to raise business rate tax by 3.9% in April. Bank of England Governor Carney said that if Brexit turned out to be worse than policymakers currently expect, it was possible that
    the BoE would not be able to cut interest rates in the future due to inflationary pressure.

    Meanwhile in Japan, President Trump said that TPP agreement is not the right idea, adding that the US has suffered massive trade deficits at hands of Japan for many years.

    U.S. 10-year Treasuries find support from rally in core and peripheral bonds in Europe; bund futures extend gains on higher volumes after stop losses are triggered on short positions; currency traders fail to find inspiration as majors are trapped in narrow ranges; euro dips briefly after interbank investors add to long dollar positions, though better-than-forecast euro-area PMI for October staves off a bigger drop for the common currency

    In commodities, WTI gained 0.6 percent to $55.97 a barrel, the highest in about nine months. Gold increased 0.1 percent to $1,271.66 an ounce. Copper rose 1 percent to $3.15 a pound, the highest in more than a week.

    All eyes today will be on retiring NY Fed President William Dudley who is scheduled to give a speech on “Lessons from the Financial Crisis” just after noon at an Economic Club of New York luncheon. Central Bank of Mexico Governor Agustin Carstens speaks at an event hosted by Comexi, the Mexican Council for International Affairs.

    Ahead of a light week for economic data releases investor focus has turned to Asia and the U.S. president’s visit to the region. Trump has already brought up trade grievances about both China and Japan and has warned nations against challenging the U.S. He goes on to South Korea and China this week. News on central bankers also will be closely watched, writes Bloomberg. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley is close to announcing his retirement, CNBC reported late on Saturday. His early departure would mean the top three positions at the Fed changing over within a relatively short period. Trump announced last week that Fed Governor Jerome Powell will be nominated to replace Janet Yellen when her term expires in February. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer retired in mid-October.

    Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk
    • European bourses lead from Asia and trade on the backfoot, while oil prices rise on Saudi Royal Purge
    • USD/JPY rises to highest level since March as Trump criticises Japan’s trade practises with the US, alongside BoJ jawboning
    • Looking ahead, highlights include a possible retirement speech from Fed’s Dudley
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,581.75
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 396.02
    • MSCI Asia unchanged at 169.84
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan unchanged at 556.69
    • Nikkei up 0.04% to 22,548.35
    • Topix down 0.08% to 1,792.66
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.02% to 28,596.80
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,388.17
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 33,798.88
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,953.78
    • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,549.41
    • German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 0.338%
    • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1596
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.527%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.468%
    • Brent futures up 0.5% to $62.38/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.04% to $1,270.41
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.03% to 94.97
    Top Overnight News
    • Trump told a gathering of business leaders in Tokyo that Japan has an unfair advantage on trade and that he intends to fix that imbalance by making it easier to do business in the U.S.
    • Ousted Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and four former members of
      his government were released in Brussels pending a court ruling on an
      international arrest warrant issued by Spain
    • Mnuchin reiterates goal to get tax reform bill to Trump in 2017
    • Carney says BOE might not be able to cut interest rates if Brexit deal worse than expected
    • PBOC’s Zhou warns China’s financial system is getting more vulnerable
    • Kuroda: BOJ will continue powerful easing; 2% inflation still a long way
    • Saudi corruption crackdown sees senior princes, top billionaire arrested
    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May meets other party leaders to discuss steps to tackle sexual harassment in U.K. politics

    Asian markets began the week on the backfoot. ASX 200 (-0.10%) slightly lower following a soft earnings report from Westpac (- 2.5%), subsequently failing to reach the 6000 mark. Chinese markets, in particular the Hang Seng (-0.02%) underperformed as PBoC Governor Zhou warned of risks over debt and the need to eliminate zombie companies. President Trump kicked off his tour of Asia in Japan, whereby the President stepped up his rhetoric of a tough stance being needed over North Korea. Additionally, the President also criticised the TPP agreement, noting that the US has suffered massive trade deficits with Japan for many years. PBoC sets CNY mid-point at 6.6247 (Prev. 6.6072). Bank of Japan meeting minutes from Sep 20-21 states that momentum towards price goal is being maintained. One member said current yield curve is not sufficient to achieve 2% inflation target, adding that a further increase in demand needed to raise prices. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda expects Japans economy to steadily move toward achieving 2% inflation target, adding that the BoJ will persistently continue powerful easing.

    Top Asian News
    • Turkey Central Bank Boosts Lenders’ FX Buffers on Weak Lira
    • Billionaire Olayan Family Is Said to Put Saudi IPO Plans on Hold
    • San Miguel to Sell Unit’s Shares After Merging Liquor Assets
    • PBOC Chief’s Latest Warnings Seen Signaling Tougher Debt Stance
    • DBS Profit Sinks as Bank Tries to Put Bad Energy Loans Behind It
    • Evergrande’s Unit Hengda Raises 60b Yuan in Third Round Funding
    • China is Finally Going After Click Farms and Fake Online Sales
    European equities traded heavy across the board with a risk off tone seemingly creeping into the market. The crackdown on corruption in Saudi Arabia has been a likely catalyst to this, one iconic target of the purge is billionaire tycoon, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a significant investor in the likes of Twitter, Citigroup, Accor and Twenty-First Century Fox. Accor trades as one of the laggards in the Cac following the aforementioned probe, with Deutsche Telekom the notable European underperformer following news that merger talks between Sprint and T-Mobile US have ended. Elsewhere, material names trade in the marginal green, buoyed by the a buoyant iron ore market. JGBs set the tone in fixed income markets, rallying strongly through Monday’s trade, a bullish bond market flooded into European bonds, with a 10k Bund order seeing the future contract trade firmly through 163.00 with the next touted resistance to be at 163.43. The Saudi international bond spreads have now widened by about 5bps following the anti-corruption crackdown.

    Top European News
    • SocGen Drags Banks Down as Analysts Cut EPS Ests., Price Targets
    • Deutsche Telekom Falls On Sprint Deal Collapse; Watch Towers
    • U.K. October Car Sales Plunge 12% in Seventh Consecutive Drop
    • Euro-Area Economic Boom Spurs Fastest Job Creation in a Decade
    In currencies, USD
    Non-farm Monday trade has set the tone this European morning, with the Greenback trading in a rangebound fashion throughout the Asian and early EU sessions. EUR/USD longs have struggled following Friday’s NFP release, with the pair trading back below 1.60, however, the consolidation does continue, trading around the 1.60 area, with bears looking for a clean break below. GBP: weekend commentary from BoE Governor Carney, stating that if Brexit turned out to be worse than policy makers expectations, it could be possible that the BoE would be unable to cut interest rates in the future due to inflationary pressures. Sterling was relatively unfazed, following the subdued tone. JPY: The US President, on his tour of Asia, is currently in Japan. He has commented on trade, stating that TPP agreement is not the right idea, adding that the US has suffered massive trade deficits at hands of Japan for many years. The Japanese currency has been very marginally weaker overnight, following a fail of a test of 115.00.

    In commodities, oil markets have been dictated to by the Saudi Arabian news, with the uncertainty resulting in oil prices seeing a 2 year high, as WTI crude futures briefly retook USD 56.00/bbl. Precious metals have come off post NFP lows with bids supported by the growing risk tone, Gold’s 1265.00 area continues to behave as key support, with silver seeing a simultaneous bounce around 16.75.

    Looking ahead, there is no data due in the US however the NY Fed’s Potter and Fed’s Dudley are both due to speak. Euro area finance ministers will also discuss completing the banking union and fiscal rules for the EMU.

    US Event Calendar
    • No major econ releases scheduled
    • 12:10pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Lessons from the Financial Crisis
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It'll be a quieter week to be in the US as the post payrolls period is always on the lighter side data wise but this week we'll have plenty of newsflow on the US tax plan and we'll likely wake up to new Mr Trump headlines most mornings as his Asian tour is now in full flow.

    Today will kick start the process for markups of the tax bill and the House is expected to vote on a final draft towards the end of the week. At the same time, the Senate will release its own version of the bill, which could differ significantly from the House’s. In our economist's view, the sticking points remain the same: the capping of the mortgage interest deduction and proposed repeal of the state and local tax deduction. Already, the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Federation of Independent Business have voiced opposition to the House bill, which is noteworthy given their relatively conservative leanings. So work still to be done. DB are hosting a conference call today (Kelly, Hooper & Slok) at 8am EST on what to expect from this and from new Fed Chair Powell. Details at the very end. For the full week ahead and easy to read cut-out and keep of all events click on "Next week... this week". The day by day week ahead is copied at the end today.

    On Saturday night, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman announced a sweeping anticorruption drive and ordered the arrest of Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, ten other senior members of the royal family, four cabinet ministers and former top officials. Bloomberg noted initial public reaction within the country may be positive with many sharing a video clip showing the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman noting no one is above the law. It is too early to know the follow on implications, but note that Prince Alwaleed is the world’s 50th richest person with worth of $19bln and has stakes in Citigroup, Twitter and JD.com. His investment firm Kingdom Holding Co’s share price dropped 7.6% on Sunday.

    Over in Japan, President Trump told a group of business leaders that “for the last many decades, Japan has been winning (on trade). You do know that…right now our trade with Japan is not fair and it isn’t open”, and that Japanese car makers should “try building your cars in the US instead of shipping them over”. Elsewhere, he reiterated that his decision to withdrawal from the Tran-pacific partnership free trade agreement will be “ultimately proven right”, and that he sees easing trade restrictions in other ways, although did not elaborate.

    Turning to Catalonia which had a new twist over the weekend. Back on Friday, a Spanish judge issued an arrest warrant for ousted Catalan President Puigdemont and four others currently living in Belgium, noting they promoted “violent force” and incited “insurrection”. Then on Sunday, Puigdemont voluntarily turned himself in to Belgium police, saying “I won’t flee justice….but to real justice”, noting that Spanish courts “can’t guarantee a fair and independent sentence that will be free of the enormous weight and influence of politics”. Later on Monday morning, a Belgium judge has released Puigdemont, but he is required to reappear before a court in Brussels within 15 days, which will potentially decide to carry out an extradition process or not. Interestingly, Puidgemont’s PdeCAT party has put his name forward as a candidate for the upcoming regional election to be held on 21 December, while the Spanish Government spokesman Mendez de Vigo said “any politician can run in the election unless he / she has been convicted of a crime”. Elsewhere, according to a new poll by La Vanguardia, it shows the Catalan secessionist coalition could win the new election with 66-69 seats, but this may not be enough to secure a clear majority in the regional assembly as 68 seats are required. The Spanish IBEX fell 0.96% and 10y yields fell 0.4bp last Friday.

    Now onto China, after issuing a verbal warning of a “Minsky moment” two weeks ago, China’s central bank Governor Zhou published an article on the bank’s website over the weekend, noting that while the overall health of the financial system is good, risks are accumulating with some that are “hidden, complex, sudden, contagious and hazardous” and that “high leverage is the ultimate origin of macro financial vulnerability”. His comments could add to the concerns that regulators may intensify the deleveraging drive in China. Elsewhere, as per Bloomberg he also noted: i) China’s financial regulation lags international standards…ii) China should increase direct financing and expand the bond market, reduce intervention in the equity market and reform the IPO system, iii) China should let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of financial resources and iv) China should improve the coordination among financial regulators. Interesting stuff!

    This morning in Asia, markets are trading slightly lower. The Hang Seng has pared back losses to be down 0.59%, partly impacted by Governor Zhou’s comments on leverage and softness in property developer stocks. Elsewhere,the Nikkei is marginally higher (+0.08%) while the Kospi (-0.34%) and ASX 200 (-0.10%) are down slightly as we type.

    Away from the markets and onto central banker’s commentaries. BOE Governor Carney noted that the BOE is working on the assumption that Brexit transition will be eventually smooth, but when asked if Brexit was much worse than expected, could it prevent the BOE from cutting rates even when growth is slowing, he noted “that’s an extreme possibility but it’s a possibility”, although “we’ll supply as much support as we can during this course of adjustment”. Elsewhere on Brexit, the Confederation of British Industry President Drechsler noted “I’m reminded of a prime-time soap opera (re Brexit), with a different episode each week…” and appeal for a “single, clear strategy” for transition as Brexit is “only 508 days away, but for many businesses, their alarm clock are set even earlier than that”.

    With Fed Governor Powell’s nomination as the next Fed Chair now official, our US economists take a closer look at the key implications of what this could mean for the markets, including: i) continuity of monetary policy, ii) reasonably high degree of continuity in terms of leadership style, and iii) changes to the Fed’s communication policy, potentially to be more brief and to the point. For more details, refer to link.

    Staying in the US, a new poll by ABC News & Washington Post showed President Trump’s approval rating is now 37%, the lowest since 1946 for any president at this point in their first term based on polling data. Approximately 55% +14ppt since April) say the President is not delivering on major campaign promises. Perhaps this will add impetus to deliver the tax reforms by Christmas as per President Trump’s plans.

    Over the weekend, there were also more rhetoric on the tax plan via Sunday talk shows. Republican senator Lankford noted that he can’t support the party’s tax bill “if the measures balloons the debt (too much)”. Elsewhere, VP Mike Pence said the “right type of tax cuts” such as immediate cut to corporate tax rates could lead to GDP growth of 3.5%-4%, which is a claim also backed up by House Majority Whip Steve Scalise. Finally, House speaker Ryan said the Republicans have learned from past experience, so the House and Senate will better coordinate and move together, so the difference from the two version of the tax bills should be small.

    Now quickly recapping markets performance on Friday. US equities strengthened further (S&P +0.31%; Dow +0.10%; Nasdaq +0.74%) to fresh record highs, supported by Apple which guided to higher than expected salesfor the upcoming December quarter (shares +2.6%). Within the S&P, modest gains in IT and health care sectors were partly offset by losses from financials and materials names. European markets were broadly higher with both the Stoxx 600 & DAX up 0.28%, while the FTSE rose marginally (+0.07%) and Spain’s IBEX underperformed (-0.96%). The risk on bias contributed to the VIX falling 8.0% to a new all-time low of 9.14.

    Over in government bonds, yields were little changed with UST 10y down 1.3bp following the miss on headline non-farm payrolls. Core European bond yields were marginally lower, with Bunds and OATs down 0.9bp and 0.7bp respectively, while Gilts were broadly flat. Turning to currency, the US dollar index and Sterling gained 0.27% and 0.14% respectively, while the Euro fell 0.43%. In commodities, WTI oil rose 2.02% to $55.64/bbl and back towards its YTD high.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the macro data was a bit mixed. The headline change in October nonfarm payrolls was lower than expected at 261k (vs. 313k), but is more in line if factoring in the upward revision of 51k to the prior month’s reading. The labour market remains solid with the October unemployment rate down to 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected) - the lowest since December 2000. However, labour force participation rate has declined to a six-month low of 62.7% and the average hourly earnings growth was weak, flat for the month (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.7% expected). Last month’s spike could have been more storm related than previously thought.

    The October ISM non-manufacturing composite was above expectations at 60.1 (vs. 58.5 expected) – the highest since August 2005 and the September factory orders also beat at 1.4% mom (vs. 1.2% expected). Moving along, the final reading for September durable goods orders was unrevised at 2% mom but core capital goods orders was revised 0.4ppt higher to 1.7% mom. Elsewhere, the trade deficit for September was broadly in line at -$43.5bln (vs. -$43.2bln expected). The October Markit PMI composite was slightly lower than last month at 55.2 (vs. 55.7 previous) while the services PMI was softer than expected at 55.3 (vs. 55.9 expected). Finally, following the recent data updates, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 4Q GDP growth has fallen back to 3.3% saar, broadly similar to the NY Fed’s Nowcast estimate of 3.2% saar.

    The UK’s October Markit PMI for composite was above consensus at 55.8 (vs. 53.8 expected) and the services PMI was also higher at 55.6 (vs. 53.3 expected) – the highest since April 2017.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ures-rebound-overnight-scare-oil-2-year-highs
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-6-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Focus will be on geopolitical risk after Trump’s Asia trip. Saudi Arabia’s clamp down on detractors by labelling them as corrupt will weigh on the markets. Economically there is nothing as most of the good news has been factored in by the markets. All the focus is on crypto currencies and bitcoins. If gold and silver fall this week, then everyone will be looking for signs of a medium term bottom. Short term investors are cautious about investing in gold.
     
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    Got Billions? Credit Suisse Will Make You A Shipping Magnate

    November 6, 2017 by Reuters

    by Jonathan Saul (Reuters) The leap in assets at Credit Suisse’s private bank to a record high this year has been aided by a key plank of the bank’s new strategy: lending money to the world’s ultra-wealthy.

    Switzerland’s second-biggest bank is trying to lure more rich customers by helping them fund their businesses and lifestyles, with shipping, aviation and real estate loans a central focus.

    The company has moved lending in those areas from its corporate bank to its wealth management unit, or private bank, over the past two years; the switch is one way in which Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam aims to deliver on his overarching strategy of driving group growth by expanding wealth management.

    It is also one reason why Credit Suisse’s private bank is growing faster than that of its Swiss rival UBS (UBSG.S), the world’s largest wealth manager, in terms of revenue and attracting new money.

    Moving the financing from its corporate to private bank means that, in those sectors, Credit Suisse will now be primarily lending to affluent individuals – clients whose personal wealth it helps manage.

    But there are risks with such exposure. Shipping finance in particular can be a perilous proposition due to doubts over the current profitability of many companies in the industry and whether lenders can make sufficient returns on investments.

    Credit Suisse – bucking a trend of banks retreating from shipping – believes it can reduce its vulnerability by lending to the high-net worth individuals who control firms, often millionaire or billionaire tycoons, according to finance experts.

    The tactic nevertheless represents a calculated gamble, they said, because these people’s personal wealth are often linked to the fortunes of the industry.

    “From the bank’s point of view, the deposits and private wealth product is the juice; the value to the bank has to be strong enough in order to consider making risky loans,” said Basil Karatzas of New York based shipping finance advisory firm Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.

    Credit Suisse declined to give details about its loan exposure in shipping, aviation and property, but finance sources estimated Credit Suisse’s exposure in shipping alone was at least $12 billion. Credit Suisse’s total net private banking loans totaled about 110 billion Swiss francs ($110 billion) at the end of the third quarter.

    The bank declined to comment on the shipping loans figure.

    Asked about the financing switch to the private bank and the associated risks, a Credit Suisse spokeswoman said such lending was part of its overall wealth platform and that the bank considers “franchise value when engaging holistically with wealth management clients”.

    A source familiar with the matter said Credit Suisse had not seen any significant losses on shipping loans and that such lending gave it a foot in the door to bank for wealthy families, which run major shipping companies.

    SHIPPING MAGNATES
    Many banks, facing capital pressure from regulators, are retreating from shipping because of the risks associated with a sector that has struggled with a near decade-long slump caused by too many vessels ordered and weaker demand.

    Lloyds (LLOY.L) became one of the first lenders to pull out of shipping finance, while fellow British bank Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) is in the process of exiting. Others such as Germany’s Commerzbank CGKG.DE and Bank of Ireland (BIRG.I) are winding down their remaining exposures. Finance sources estimate the sector has a capital shortfall of $30 billion this year.

    Finance experts say Credit Suisse’s new tack of lending via its private bank has helped it make significant in-roads with Greek shipping magnates – among the richest in the industry – in the past year, capitalizing on RBS’s exit from Greece.

    Leading Greek shipping tycoon John Angelicoussis is among those that Credit Suisse has helped finance, Thomson Reuters LPC data shows.

    “Presently, Credit Suisse seems to be shedding off part of the smaller (ship) owner portfolio and those who are not top tier names with top tier deposits,” said Karatzas. “There is a focus away from the transactional aspect of business towards the relationship-driven business that lowers costs and risks but also builds up on the bank’s traditional core strengths.”

    Credit Suisse has taken a similar approach towards aviation and real estate.

    Shipping and real estate lending are both bigger businesses than aviation for the bank, the source familiar with the matter said.

    RISK APPETITE
    Credit Suisse, whose assets under management have hit a record high of 751 billion francs this year, saw a 7 percent rise in net new money in the first nine months of 2017.

    By comparison UBS’s flagship wealth management division, with 1.1 trillion francs, reported a 5 percent growth in net new money.

    Credit Suisse’s earnings from lending in wealth management have risen 5.8 percent this year, while UBS’s division is down 1 percent.

    Any gain that Credit Suisse can make in private banking is valuable as the lender comes off back-to-back multi-billion dollar full-year losses amid a major restructure under Thiam.

    It remains to be seen whether the potential benefits of its private bank’s lending tactics will outweigh the risks.

    But its arch-rival is not following its approach.

    The head of UBS’s wealth management division, Juerg Zeltner, told Reuters in September the bank has no plans to increase risk appetite with regards to lending.

    “We’ve defined our risk appetite,” he said. “I know how much earnings I‘m willing to put at risk and that limits my exposure to how much lending I‘m going to do.”

    © 2017 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

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