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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

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    Bitconnect Final Warning: PONZI PYRAMID
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 18, 2017
    This is the final warning regarding the impending collapse, implosion, doom, vaporization of your capital, theft and misery of Bitconnect. It appears that many out there have never before seen the model and design that is a Ponzi Scheme or Pyramid Scheme. Yes, both are different and at times can blend into one ugly thieving animal. The strategy is always the same, the execution identical, the red flags present - the suckers all claiming, "bUt tHiS TiMe iT'S diFfeREnT!"
    Junius Maltby channel is now.
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    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.
     
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    TBP - 10 Sunday Reads 11/19
    http://ritholtz.com/2017/11/sunday-reads-114/

    Naked Capitalism Links 11/19
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/11/links-111917.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 11/19
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    AR - Sunday links: contrast effects 11/19
    https://abnormalreturns.com/2017/11/19/sunday-links-contrast-effects/

    SA - Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Black Friday Produce A Green Market? 11/19
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4126183-weighing-week-ahead-will-black-friday-produce-green-market
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-20-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    I have seen very big moves in global financial markets in “Thanksgiving week”. I will be cautious this week. Silver gets the best week to rise and zoom. I expect short covering with every rise in gold prices. Speculation that some hedge funds are exiting crude oil long positions is preventing the rise. A strong US economy implies more guzzle for fuel during holidays.
     
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    IMO: Ships Not Meeting 2020 Low-Sulphur Fuel Requirements Will Be Deemed ‘Unseaworthy’

    November 20, 2017 by The Loadstar


    By Mike Wackett (The Loadstar) – Ships that do not comply with the forthcoming 0.5% sulphur cap on fuel oil could be considered “unseaworthy”, invalidating charter parties and liability insurance cover.

    That was the clear message from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) at the annual meeting of the European Refining Technology Conference (ERTC) in Athens last week.

    Edmund Hughes, technical officer, marine environment division, at the IMO, said the global reduction from the current 3.5% sulphur limit would “enter into force on 1 January 2020 without any delay”.

    On recent concerns over the continued availability of heavy fuel oil (HFO) for shipowners that opt for the installation of exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as “scrubbers”, Dr Hughes said the bunker industry would “have a part to play in ensuring high-sulphur fuel oil continues to be supplied”.

    The installation of a scrubber system enables exhaust streams to be mixed with either seawater or fresh water. A treatment plant then removes the pollutants from the wash water with a sludge handling facility, which is then used as a store for eventual disposal of the residue ashore.

    The installation cost of a scrubber system for a large containership is estimated to be $10m. However this could be recovered relatively quickly, due to the price differential between HFO and low-sulphur fuel oil: currently around $360 and $540 per tonne respectively.

    On a slow-steaming 10,000 teu ship, burning 150 tonnes of fuel oil a day, the daily saving would be some $27,000 on current prices, repaying the outlay for the scrubber within a year or so.

    But not everybody is a fan of the system. Last week, during Hapag-Lloyd’s third-quarter results, chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen described scrubber systems as “very inefficient”.

    He said Hapag-Lloyd “would not” be installing them on its ships which would from January 2020 would either burn LSFO or LNG. Mr Habben Jansen reminded analysts that Hapag-Lloyd had inherited 17 ULCVs from the merger with UASC that were built to be “LNG-ready”.

    However, they would need to have part of a hold converted to house the gas tanks which could sacrifice around 500 teu of cargo capacity. he said that a final decision on the fuel strategy would be made “within six to nine months”.

    Indeed, the timing is critical, given that Hapag-Lloyd currently charters-in 99 vessels of its total fleet of 214, meaning that the carrier would need to discuss its “no scrubber” requirement with shipowners that may want to install the technology.

    Meanwhile, with the tougher sulphur regulations in place, the cost of the more expensive fuel will ultimately need to be passed on, so shippers must be prepared for higher sea freight costs.

    The Loadstar is fast becoming known at the highest levels of logistics and supply chain management as one of the best sources of influential analysis and commentary.

    Check them out at TheLoadstar.co.uk, or find them on Facebook and Twitter.

    http://gcaptain.com/imo-ships-not-m...fuel-requirements-will-be-deemed-unseaworthy/
     
  13. searcher

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    BTC vs. Metals: Wealth Preservation
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 20, 2017
    The only reason I would use any crypto is to acquire more Gold. Gold has the entire span of history on its side, while crypto has less than a decade. Bitcoin is often shown in images, even though it is nothing but lines of code in the matrix, as GOLD COINS. Why is that? Is it subliminal suggestion to convince the human psyche that BTC is the new gold? The human mind knows gold is wealth. If I gave you $500,000 right now and you could only choose one of two things; buy $500,000 in Gold or $500,000 in BTC and the rule was you had to sit on it for 25 years. You could not touch it. You could not move it or anything. It had to only sit and wait on the future - which would you choose?

    Today the BTC:Gold Ratio is 1:6.46 and the BTC:Silver Ratio is 1:488
    Gold will never go below the USD $1,100 point again. Silver is anyones guess - and yes it could see sub $14.00 again. Gold is wealth. Gold is the one asset that cannot vanish, owes no one, has zero debts or obligations. Gold is the one unit of account that never goes away.
    Donations: (yes in Crypto to transfer into metals or food).
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  14. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Crypto-Metals: Black/White, Good vs. Evil?
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 20, 2017
    Is it black and white? Is it good vs evil? I do not believe in fiat, you likely do not believe in fiat, however we are forced to use it and it is forced upon us. Dabbling in crypto, gambling with it is no different than dabbling with a 401k or your state/federal pension, 457 deferred compensation, mutual funds, defense contract stocks or the like.

    There are moral and ethical questions that abound with money, its use, its investing. If anything - crypto, being decentralized often and a challenge to the statists has admirable qualities. Many of you are entrenched in being 100% opposed to anything crypto - and I sympathize with you as I am 99% of the way there.

    I was where you are and will always remain the harshest critic. I will applaud the days it collapses, I will cheer the downfall of each and every Ponzi associated with it, I will also cheer its challenge and hatred spewed upon it by the central bankers! Has there ever been such an item, such an entity that was hated by both central bankers as well as sound money advocates? Is this necessary? I am still the staunch advocate of precious metals, anti-state and anti-war - however I see crypto as a possible exit - one of several options to escaping fiat.

    The crypto window may only last a measure of time, however I do feel it is going to be a part of our lives whether we embrace it or not. I am not urging others towards it, I am not advocating its universal adoption.

    What I am doing is learning about it, experimenting with it and exploring the possibilities it offers. Thank you for your time and participation here. Thank you to those of you with enough intellect to have a dialogue with me not the issue and especially thank you to those patient enough to not give up on me as I stumble my way towards learning more about this bizarre computerized unit of account/exchange. Thank you.

    Donations: (yes in Crypto to transfer into metals or food).
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  15. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Gold & Silver Price DROP! eBay Buyer And SELLER Beware!
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Nov 20, 2017
     
  16. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-21-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Disappointed is the word. Yes gold and silver fell as investors switched to bitcoin. In the short term the inverse correlation between gold and bitcoin will continue. This failure of gold to break past $1300 will result in more and shorter selling at higher prices. Silver continues to range trade. It will break free from the $1660-$1740 trading range and form a new range very soon. Political issues from the Eurozone failed to impact the euro as investors focused on economic fundamentals. News will be the key.
     
  17. searcher

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    Senate Shrugs Shoulders, Signs Off On Guy Who Specialized In Kicking People Out Of Their Homes
    By Jon Shazar

    Post a Comment / Nov 20, 2017 at 4:39 PM

    Joseph Otting is the kind of nominee that once upon a time might have occasioned a big stink. A lifetime banking industry veteran whose most notable accomplishment was overseeing a particularly nasty mortgage bank engaged in some particularly shady practices at the height of the financial crisis might, in earlier, more innocent times, have been considered a bad fit for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which exists to make sure that banks don’t get too nasty or shady. There might have been a public outcry, a bruising row over it in Congress, and a couple of “independent” Republicans—like, say, Dean Heller, whose state, Nevada, was ravaged by the practices of bank’s like Otting’s, and who might not feel much fealty towards a president whose pet names for him are “toxic” and “WEAK”—to cross party lines and vote against him.

    But no: It is 2017, Donald Trump is president, Otting’s old boss is Secretary of the Treasury and this guy had no trouble winning confirmation as Secretary of Commerce. And so quietly and with the support of Dean Heller and Susan Collins and every single other member of the Republican caucus of the United States Senate, Joseph Otting will be sworn in as the new OCC sometime next week.

    A former regional banker who worked with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at OneWest Bank, Mr. Otting is expected to be sworn in next week, according to a person familiar with the matter….

    OneWest was accused of abusing homeowners during the foreclosure process, a charge the bank disputed. Mr. Mnuchin faced questions about those issues during his confirmation hearing earlier this year, but the Senate confirmed him by a 53-47 vote.

    Senate Approves Joseph Otting for Top Banking Role [WSJ]

    https://dealbreaker.com/2017/11/sen...ialized-in-kicking-people-out-of-their-homes/
     
  18. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  19. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Glint: Spending Gold, Bitcoin, Crypto, Fiat, Symptoms of a Failed Paper World
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 21, 2017
    The marriage of Crypto and Gold is getting closer by the day, however as of yet there is not a true blend of the two that I see as the ONE. BTC storage costs 15x that of Gold? 1 Trillion dollars worth of BTC was stolen, disappeared, vanished? Welcome to the Junius Maltby Channel.
     
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    Timing Hyperinflation & Gold: The Only Indestructable Form of Capital
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 21, 2017
    Another speeches and writings session. This time we are reading the paper titled, "Timing Hyperinflation" by professor Antal E. Fekete. Remember, gold is the only indestructible form of capital.
     
  21. searcher

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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain With Stocks
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold gained $4 to $1281.30 in Asia before it dropped back to $1276.30 in London, but it then jumped up to $1284.70 in New York and ended with a gain of 0.2%. Silver rose to as high as $17.051 and ended with a gain of 0.12%.
     
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  23. searcher

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    Hackers stole personal data of 57MILLION Uber customers and drivers - and the company 'paid them $100,000 to delete the information and go away'
    • Hackers stole names, email addresses, and phone numbers in October 2016
    • The personal data was stolen from 50 million Uber riders and 7 million drivers
    • Ride-hailing company managed to conceal massive breach for more than a year
    • Joe Sullivan, Uber's chief security officer, was fired this week for his role in keeping the hack quiet
    • Last month, an investigation was launched into the activities of Sullivan’s security team and during investigation, the hack and cover-up were discovered
    • Ex-Uber CEO Travis Kalanick reportedly found out about the breack in Nov 2016
    • Current CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said 'none of this should have happened, and I will not make excuses for it'


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5105733/Hackers-stole-data-57M-Uber-customers-drivers.html#ixzz4z75RzfHP
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    U.S. Sanctions Chinese Shipping Companies Over Ties to North Korea

    November 21, 2017 by Mike Schuler

    [​IMG]
    These images, taken on October 19, 2017 and released Tuesday by the U.S. Treasury Dept., reportedly show a recent attempt by Korea Kumbyol Trading Company’s vessel, RYE SONG GANG 1, to conduct a ship-to-ship transfer in an effort to evade sanctions:

    By Saleha Mohsin (Bloomberg) — The Trump administration sanctioned three Chinese trading companies on Tuesday as well as North Korean shipping firms and vessels as the U.S. seeks to disrupt funding of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear program.

    One individual, 13 entities and 20 vessels were sanctioned, the Treasury Department said.

    “These designations include companies that have engaged in trade with North Korea cumulatively worth hundreds of millions of dollars. We are also sanctioning the shipping and transportation companies, and their vessels, that facilitate North Korea’s trade and its deceptive maneuvers,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

    The designations include three Chinese companies that cumulatively export about $650 million worth of goods to North Korea and import about $100 million in goods such as computers, iron, zinc ore and other minerals, the department said. None of the firms sanctioned are publicly traded.

    President Donald Trump on Monday announced he would designate North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, reinforcing its status as an international pariah. He warned of “very large” sanctions being prepared.

    North Korea has accelerated its nuclear program since the second half of 2017, test-firing long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles that could hit the U.S. mainland. The UN Security Council unanimously approved tougher sanctions in August. Trump has followed with further measures, including sanctions and tougher rhetoric, at one time threatening to unleash “fire and fury.”

    Years of sanctions against North Korea have done little to slow its nuclear weapons program but analysts say that a new executive order from Trump gives the Treasury Department authority to block North Korea from the global banking system. The order also lets the U.S. ban ships or aircraft that have made stops in North Korea from the U.S. for 180 days.

    “In addition to threatening the world with nuclear devastation, North Korea has repeatedly supported acts of international terrorism including assassinations on foreign soil,” Trump said on Monday, explaining his decision to add North Korea to the U.S. terrorist list. Iran, Sudan and Syria are also on the U.S. list of state sponsor’s of terrorism.

    North Korea has a track record of escalating and then lowering tensions to win diplomatic and economic benefits and has been on a war footing since its creation in 1948. About 25 million people are in the active military, with reservists numbering 7.6 million. A 2014 UN inquiry accused the regime of human rights abuses that it says are unparalleled in the contemporary world. The abuses include murder, enslavement, torture and sexual violence.

    © 2017 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/u-s-sanctions-chinese-shipping-companies-ties-north-korea/
     
  25. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Holiday Bell: 11.22.17
    https://dealbreaker.com/2017/11/holiday-bell-11-22-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 11/22
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/11/links-112217.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 11/22
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: November 22, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/11/morning-news-november-22-2017.html

    TRB - The Year of Living Dangerously 11/22
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/11/22/the-year-of-living-dangerously/

    MtM - Global Equity Rally Resumes, while Dollar Slips 11/22
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/11/global-equity-rally-resumes-while.html

    RR - Meltdowns, Doomsday and Stuffing Ourselves Silly 11/22
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-22/meltdowns-doomsday-and-stuffing-ourselves-silly

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Traders Digest Fed Minutes Before Thanksgiving 11/22
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...kfast-traders-digest-fed-minutes-thanksgiving
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: November-22-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    It will be a technical trade today and till Monday. Moves will be big and two way. Investors will not be able to sleep on their investments. It should be a day trader’s paradise till Monday. Copper, industrial metals and crude oil are looking bullish at the moment. Gold and silver are in anything can happen zone. Short term hot money is still into bitcoin and crypto currencies.
     
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    The Bubble in Cryptos that No One is Talking About
    Silver Fortune



    Published on Nov 22, 2017
    A balanced take on cryptocurrencies, and their future, the role they will play in our future economy, and potential bubbles that we can see right now.

    Support this channel by using this promo code for a 10 oz. silver bar at spot from SD Bullion https://sdbullion.com/sf (You must be logged in for the code to work)
     
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    Crypto HACK Bitcoin SMACKED!
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Nov 22, 2017
     
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    2018 Precious Metals Outlook
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Nov 22, 2017
    Today we take a look at the prognostications of JP MORGAN, UBS, TD Securities and others as we look at where precious metals will be heading into and through 2018. You will NOT see Gold at $1100 any time soon (if ever again in my opinion), and it appears that Silver has chance at retaking that $20 level once again. Of course the dynamics of this world may see prices even higher than those quoted, one thing is certain - metals are still at a price that is lower than it should be. Gold - my favorite of the precious metals, is truly at a low and will see much higher prices, especially when in 2018 the dollar encounters what some believe will be a, "prolonged weakening period". Buckle up and thanks for being a part of the Junius Maltby Channel.
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    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1%
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold saw only modest gains in Asia and London, but it then climbed steadily higher in New York and ended near its late session high of $1294.50 with a gain of 0.91%. Silver rose to as high as $17.162 and ended with a gain of 1.12%.
     
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    J Crew to close 39 stores by the end of January after it lost $161 million in the first nine months of this year
    • J Crew will close double the stores it originally planned to after a tough year
    • Some 250 staff will receive severance payments as 6 per cent of its shops shut
    • J Crew is transitioning from traditional retail into a 'digital-first' outlet
    • A record number of stores of all kinds - 6,700 - closed in the US this year
    • That's 600 more than the previous record, in 2008 as the recession hit
    • But unemployment is the lowest since 2001 at 4.2 per cent thanks to online companies


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5111739/J-Crew-shut-39-shops-end-January-161m-loss.html#ixzz4zHYFX45H
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    [Business Daily] Ep.674 - Semiconductor supercyclemeeting / Global Business News _ Full Episode
    ARIRANG TV



    Published on Nov 24, 2017
    Semiconductor supercycle
    The Korean economy grew by the fastest clip in 7 years in the third quarter, thanks to global hot demand for chips. We take a look at how long this supercycle in semiconductors is expected to last.

    Global Business News
    The time crunch becomes real as the UK dashes to reach a 'divorce' deal with the EU before the year is up. Its Finance Ministry pads its 'Brexit' budget as it anticipates a slashed growth of 1.5% this year and less growth through 2020, a far cry from that of other major economies. This and other stories from the week.

    한국 경제 이끄는 반도체, 슈퍼 호황은 언제까지?
    3분기 한국의 GDP 성장률이 7년 만의 분기 기준 최대치인 1.4%를 기록했다. 배경에는 반도체를 중심으로 수출이 큰 호조를 보였기 때문이란 분석이다. 슈퍼 호황을 이어가고 있는 한국의 반도체 산업, 호황의 이유와 앞으로의 과제를 알아본다.

    브렉시트 이후, 휘청대는 영국 경제
    브렉시트 투표 이후, 영국 경제가 휘청대고 있다. 영국 예산청(OBR)은 올해 영국 경제성장률 전망치를 기존 2%에서 1.5%로 하향조정했는데... 급기야 세계 5대 경제국 자리를 프랑스에 내줄 것으로 보인다. 영국의 경제 상황을 점검해본다. 이 외에 한 주간 글로벌 경제 이슈를 점검한다.

    Arirang News Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/arirangtvnews
     
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    How Turkey, Iran, Russia, And India Are Playing The New Silk Roads

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 24, 2017 3:30 AM


    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    A pacified Syria is key to the economic integration of Eurasia through energy and transportation connections...

    [​IMG]

    Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani will hold a summit this Wednesday in Sochi to discuss Syria. Russia, Turkey and Iran are the three power players at the Astana negotiations – where multiple cease-fires, as hard to implement as they are, at least evolve, slowly but surely, towards the ultimate target – a political settlement.

    A stable Syria is crucial to all parties involved in Eurasia integration. As Asia Times reported, China has made it clear that a pacified Syria will eventually become a hub of the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – building on the previous business bonanza of legions of small traders commuting between Yiwu and the Levant.

    Away from intractable war and peace issues, it’s even more enlightening to observe how Turkey, Iran and Russia are playing their overlapping versions of Eurasia economic integration and/or BRI-related business.

    Much has to do with the energy/transportation connectivity between railway networks – and, further on the down the road, high-speed rail – and what I have described, since the early 2000s, as Pipelineistan.

    [​IMG]

    The Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a deal brokered in person in Baku by the late Dr Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski, was a major energy/geopolitical coup by the Clinton administration, laying out an umbilical steel cord between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

    Now comes the Baku-Tblisi-Kars (BTK) railway – inaugurated with great fanfare by Erdogan alongside Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili, but also crucially Kazakh Prime Minister Bakhytzhan Sagintayev and Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov. After all, this is about the integration of the Caucasus with Central Asia.

    Erdogan actually went further: BTK is “an important chain in the New Silk Road, which aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe.” The new transportation corridor is configured as an important Eurasian hub linking not only the Caucasus with Central Asia but also, in the Big Picture, the EU with Western China.

    BTK is just the beginning, considering the long-term strategy of Chinese-built high-speed rail from Xinjiang across Central Asia all the way to Iran, Turkey, and of course, the dream destination: the EU. Erdogan can clearly see how Turkey is strategically positioned to profit from it.

    [​IMG]


    Of course, BTK is not a panacea. Other connectivity points between Iran and Turkey will spring up, and other key BRI interconnectors will pick up speed in the next few years, such as the Eurasian Land Bridge across the revamped Trans-Siberian and an icy version of the Maritime Silk Road: the Northern Sea Route across the Arctic.

    What’s particularly interesting in the BTK case is the Pipelineistan interconnection with the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP), bringing natural gas from the massive Azeri gas field Shah Deniz-2 to Turkey and eventually the EU.

    Turkish analyst Cemil Ertem stresses, “just like TANAP, the BTK Railway not only connects three countries, but also is one of the main trade and transport routes in Asia and Europe, and particularly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan ports. It connects Central Asia to Turkey with the Marmaray project in Istanbul and via the Caspian region. Along with the Southern Gas Corridor, which constitutes TANAP’s backbone, it will also connect ports on the South China Sea to Europe via Turkey.”

    It’s no wonder BTK has been met with ecstatic reception across Turkey – or, should we say, what used to be known as Asia Minor. It does spell out, graphically, Ankara’s pivoting to the East (as in increasing trade with China) as well as a new step in the extremely complex strategic interdependence between Ankara and Moscow; the Central Asian “stans”, after all, fall into Russia’s historical sphere of influence.

    Add to it the (pending) Russian sale of the S-400 missile defense system to Ankara, and the Russian and Chinese interest in having Turkey as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

    From IPI to IP and then II
    Now compare the BTK coup with one of Pipelineistan’s trademark cliff-hanging soap operas; the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India), previously dubbed “the peace pipeline”.

    IPI originally was supposed to link southeastern Iran with northern India across Balochistan, via the Pakistani port of Gwadar (now a key hub of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC). The Bush and Obama administrations did everything to prevent IPI from ever being built, betting instead on the rival TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) – which would actually traverse a war zone east of Herat, Afghanistan.

    TAPI might eventually be built – even with the Taliban being denied their cut (that was exactly the contention 20 years ago with the first Clinton administration: transit rights). Lately, Russia stepped up its game, with Gazprom seducing India into becoming a partner in TAPI’s construction.

    But then came the recent announcement by Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak: Moscow and Tehran will sign a memorandum of understanding to build a 1,200km gas pipeline from Iran to India; call it II. And Gazprom, in parallel, will invest in unexplored Iranian gas fields along the route.

    Apart from the fact of a major win for Gazprom – expanding its reach towards South Asia – the clincher is the project won’t be the original IPI (actually IP), where Iran already built the stretch up to the border and offered help for Islamabad to build its own stretch; a move that would be plagued by US sanctions. The Gazprom project will be an underwater pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

    From New Delhi’s point of view, this is the ultimate win-win. TAPI remains a nightmarish proposition, and India needs all the gas it can get, fast. Assuming the new Trump administration “Indo-Pacific” rhetoric holds, New Delhi is confident it won’t be slapped with sanctions because it’s doing business with both Iran and Russia.

    And then there was another key development coming out of Putin’s recent visit to Tehran: the idea – straight out of BRI – of building a rail link between St. Petersburg (on the Baltic) and Chabahar port close to the Persian Gulf. Chabahar happens to be the key hub of India’s answer to BRI: a maritime trade link to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, and connected to the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), of which Iran, India and Russia are key members alongside Caucasus and Central Asian nations.

    You don’t need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows across Eurasia; integration, all the way.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-24/how-turkey-iran-russia-and-india-are-playing-new-silk-roads
     
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    Danielle DiMartino Booth – Bitcoin is a Reflection of Panic
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Nov 21, 2017
    Bitcoin’s rapid rise in value is sending a warning signal, according to former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth. She says, “To me, Bitcoin is a reflection of panic. It’s a reflection of people trying to get money into a safe place knowing the major governments of the developed world have got their printing presses running 24/7. It is a reflection of anxiety in fiat currencies and the fact it’s not practical to go back to a gold standard. What scares me about Bitcoin is the central bankers are studying it to figure out how the blockchain works. . . .They are going to be controlling our spending with blockchain technology that is being perfected in the crypto currency universe. . . . I am not a gold bug, but we do know that in times of corrections that there is no place to hide in traditional asset classes that you can get at your Merrill Lynch brokerage. Gold and silver in the precious metals complex are the only places to hide and get true diversification and safety.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Danielle DiMartino Booth, the author of the popular book “Fed Up.”

    Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

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    All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/fed-fears-new...
     
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    REALIST NEWS - Another Possibility - The Ponzi Pumpers Hacked (Inside Job?) Speculation Only
    jsnip4



    Published on Nov 24, 2017
     
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    S&P Futures Hit Record High As European Euphoria Takes Over Forgotten China Rout

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Nov 24, 2017 7:01 AM


    Yesterday's China stock market rout, in which the Shanghai Composite tumbled the most since June 2016 to three month lows, and which prompted traders to question the dedication of Beijing's plunge protection team, appears to have been forgotten, with the Composite closing unchanged on Friday after some early session weakness, as Chinese yields declined broadly across the board from 3 years highs. As a result, world stocks hovered just below record highs, and set to reverse two straight weeks of losses, and with Asian markets mostly in the green, as MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex Japan index rose 0.2%, the optimism spread to Europe where Germany's IFO Business Climate hit a new record high...

    ... and now points to a Y/Y GDP growth of 4%.

    [​IMG]

    It is worth keeping in mind that while European business optimism has never been higher, 90% of the responses to the survey were submitted before Angela Merkel’s coalition talks collapsed. Still, the IFO print was in line with the latest November Markit PMIs, which also printed strong and beat consensus, with Eurozone’s flash composite PMI rising to a 6.5 year high (57.5 vs. 56 expected) and is at a level that is broadly consistent with 3.5% yoy GDP growth, which Deutsche Bank called "a stunning figure for the continent." In addition to the strong IFO data, there was more good news out of Germany where the SPD is now reportedly ready to negotiate with Merkel to form a government and end the political deadlock. In response to these two developments, the EURUSD rose to the highest level since October 13...



    [​IMG]

    ... and despite the strong currency European stocks which were in the red in early trading, turned positive, helped to an extent by news Asia would slash import tarfiffs in a boost for consumer goods companies, benefiting European exporters. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced, also thanks to bank shares as Italian lenders were buoyed by a new proposal to deal with bad loans.

    “It’s a bit of a Goldilocks situation (for economic growth). It is finely balanced and I think the European Central Bank has very much hinted at that in its actions, but at the moment I can’t really see how this is going to be up-ended,” said Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index.

    Ironically, as Germany's crisis appeared to easing, a new crisis emerged in Ireland, whose bond yields climbed to a 10-day high. The standoff over the Irish deputy leader may lead to an early election at a time when the government has to make key decisions on the Brexit process.

    Finally, with the US coming back from Thanksgiving holiday for a half-trading Friday, S&P futures are up 6 points, in fresh record territory, with early optimism among merchants expected to benefit from strong Black Friday sales.

    In FX, the US dollar remained under pressure after the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting highlighted concerns over persistently low inflation, pushing the DXY 0.2% lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its third week of losses, the longest losing streak since July, and is down 1.6% this month.

    While a drop in Treasuries supported the gauge initially, gains were capped by a rally in cable and demand for the yen after London open, although post-Thanksgiving volumes remained subdued. In Europe, bonds slipped as equities were mixed and crude oil rose. Indeed, as Bloomberg writes, a rebound in Treasury yields wasn’t enough for the dollar to sustain early gains as the London session started off with decent demand for the euro and the pound amid modest post-Thanksgiving flows. Downside Dollar risks prevail on the charts, with momentum driven by the dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen earlier in the week amid lack of progress on U.S. tax reform.

    Meanwhile, "euro bulls added longs in the spot market, according to traders in Europe and London, albeit in low volumes, with some desks understaffed on Friday" Bloomberg added. As we discussed earlier, the common currency rose to its strongest level in six weeks, with hedge funds and interbank accounts leading the move higher. The latter look more confident on euro gains after the latest European Central Bank account showed that a pickup in inflation isn’t a prerequisite for policy makers to end monetary stimulus.

    The South African rand heavily underperforms as S&P and Moody’s are due to reassess South Africa sovereign rating and potentially cut further.

    In commodities, crude futures hit a two-year high on the shutdown of Keystone pipeline, a major crude pipeline from Canada to the United States. WTI crude futures were up 0.9% at $58.53 a barrel from their last settlement. Brent was flattish at $63.46, down 0.1% on the day. In a sign of a tightening market, both crude benchmarks are in backwardation, making it unattractive for traders to store oil for later sale.

    Iron ore climbed to a two-month high, while industrial metals headed for the best weekly gain in six. Crude oil surged as OPEC and Russia were said to have agreed on a framework to extend supply cuts.

    Expected economic data include November PMIs. Canada’s Valener is reporting earnings.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,597.25
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 387.68
    • MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 173.08
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.2% to 568.34
    • Nikkei up 0.1% to 22,550.85
    • Topix up 0.2% to 1,780.56
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 29,866.32
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,353.82
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 33,682.74
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.06% to 5,982.55
    • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,544.33
    • German 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.37%
    • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1864
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.518%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 1.481%
    • Brent futures down 0.1% to $63.62/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,290.27
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.10
    Top Overnight News
    • Former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s lawyers have notified President Trump’s legal team in recent days they can no longer discuss special counsel’s investigation, NYT reports, adding it’s an indication that Flynn is cooperating with prosecutors or negotiating such a deal
    • China said it will further cut import taxes for a wide range of consumer goods in a bid to boost consumption
    • Germany’s biggest opposition party said it’s open to talks on backing a government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel. The move came after the Green party urged Merkel to forge a coalition with the SPD, while ruling out further attempts to gain a place in any alliance.
    • German Ifo business confidence rose to a record high of 117.5 in November vs estimate of 116.7 and 116.8 in October
    • BOE official Silvana Tenreyro said two more rate increases will probably be needed to get inflation back to target, but Brexit will be the real determinant of where policy goes next
    • The U.K. financial services regulator confirmed all 20 banks have agreed to support the London interbank offered rate until 2021 and will work toward developing an alternative benchmark
    • ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said ECB deposit rate will stay at minus 0.4% for a long time
    • U.K. consumer confidence tumbled to 106.6 in November, the lowest level since the aftermath of the Brexit vote, according to a poll by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research
    • Ireland's deputy PM is pressured to resign by opposition due to historical conduct; potential for fresh elections as PM support for deputy leads to standoff
    • In a Thanksgiving address to troops, Trump credited his policies for allowing progress in Afghanistan and against Islamic State, and warned about sending sophisticated weapons to American allies that one day could become the enemy.
    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will meet European Union President Donald Tusk Friday as the country seeks guarantees that the bloc will allow stalled Brexit talks to make progress in exchange for new assurances over money.
    • Dalian Exchange cuts trading fees for some iron ore futures contracts
    • Noble Group Risks Equity Wipeout as Shares Retreat Yet Again
    • Credit Suisse-Backed WeLab Is Said to Plan $500 Million IPO
    • Temer Said to Agree on Brazil Pension Vote With House Chief
    Asia equity markets traded higher albeit with an indecisive tone as markets lacked impetus with US away from market and mainland Chinese markets reeling from yesterday’ s late sell-off. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were negative at the open with the latter dampened by a firmer currency on return from holiday, while Mitsubishi Materials underperformed as its shares dropped nearly 10% after the Co. disclosed it had falsified product data. However, Japanese stocks then reversed losses in late trade underpinned by a mild rebound in USD/JPY. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were mixed with the mainland index jittery after its 2.3% decline on Thursday which was attributed to tighter regulations and deleveraging concerns, as well as a slump in the bond market. 10yr JGBs were subdued with demand weighed by a reserved BoJ Rinban announcement for only JPY 390bln and in which the central bank reduced the amount of buying in 25yr+ maturities. This also coincided with overnight weakness in USTs which tripped through stops at 125.00 to the downside. PBoC injected CNY 30bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 10bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos, for a net weekly injection of CNY 150bln vs. Prev. CNY 810bln net injection last week. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5810. China Finance Ministry said it will lower import tariffs on some consumer products from December, with import duties to be cut to an average 7.7% from 17.3%.

    Top Asian News
    • After Sudden Rout, China Stock Traders Question Beijing Put
    • China Approves Taiwan ASE-Siliconware Merger with Conditions
    • Hong Kong Finance Elite’s Gym of Choice Is Said to Near Sale
    • HNA Is Said to Get Nod From Malaysia for Deutsche Bank Stake
    • Banks Squeeze India Firms Harder in $207 Billion Bad Loan Fight
    In European trading, it is a somewhat calmer end to the week, with the Euro Stoxx rising 0.3% thus far. The growing prospect of a grand coalition in Germany has helped lift the DAX above 13,000. Move higher in European consumer staples has been aided by the announcement from China that they are to cut tariffs on imported consumer goods. As such, Nestle, Danone and Diageo have been leading the charge, with products including baby formula to be impacted. Bunds holding just edging new and deeper sub-163.00 lows in wake of the stronger than expected German Ifo survey overall, with only current conditions unable to match consensus, albeit still robust. The 10 year benchmark has now recoiled to 162.72 from 163.03 at best, with near term or intraday supports at 162.61 looking attractive. Note, Eur/Usd has now moved a tad higher towards 1.1880 having eclipsed its previous MTD best (1.1761) pre-9.00GMT in what appeared to be a bit of front-running and buy the rumour/sell the fact initially. Back to debt futures, Gilts are largely tracking Bunds and have fallen in sympathy to 125.10 from 125.28 at one stage and from Thursday’s 125.31 close. BBA mortgage data up next in the UK.

    Top European News
    • U.K. Consumer Confidence Hits Level Last Seen After Brexit Vote
    • Man Utd.’s Fellaini Sues New Balance Over Foot-Damaging Cleats
    • Clariant to Revise Strategy Yet Won’t Bow to Breakup Demands
    • Putin Peace Plan Gets Boost as Syria Opposition Unites for Talks
    In FX, the the Dollar showing some signs of stabilisation, if not recovery across the board, as the Index holds in above 93.000 after Thanksgiving and ahead of another shortened US session, which will keep trading conditions thin and choppy. The pound was an early gainer and outerperformer (albeit marginal) on more Brexit headlines, as UK PM May and the EU’ s Juncker both claim progress made in negotiations ahead of more ‘crucial’talks. Cable back above 1.3300 as a result, and Eur/Gbp sub-0.8900. The Euro is still firm vs he Greenback, with the headline pair breaching its November peak (1.1861), while the next key chart resistance resides at 1.1880. EUR had been further bolstered by firm German IFO data, in which the Business Climate figure rose to a record high. The yen was off best levels vs the Usd, as strong technical support just above 111.00 is respected (for now), but 112.10 widely seen capping the upside within a new lower range

    In commodities, iron ore prices continued its recent upward trajectory, with the spot price hitting its highest level since September 20th amid stronger steel prices. Copper also edging higher with support from the softer USD. The price of the red metal likely helped by a 24hr strike announced yesterday’ s at Chile’ s Escondida copper mine, the worlds largest mine. WTI and Brent crude futures up 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, with focus on next weeks OPEC and Non-OPEC meeting where expectations are for a 9-month extension

    Looking at the day ahead, in Germany we received the November IFO survey, which printed at a new record high of 117.5. In the US, we get the flash November PMIs. Black Friday also marks the traditional start of the US holiday shopping season and any clues to footfall and overall sales will be closely watched. One other event potentially keeping an eye on is S&P and Moody’s scheduled sovereign rating reviews of South Africa, with the country at risk of losing its investment grade status. The ECB’s Supervisory chair Ms Nouy will also speak today.

    US Event Calendar
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55, prior 54.6
    • Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.3, prior 55.3
    • Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.2
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Welcome to Boxing Thanksgiving Day or Black Friday as it’s commonly known these days. I must have about 10 emails in my inbox already this morning informing me of must have bargains. On the quiet holiday inspired session yesterday the most interesting story occurred after we went to print but before you read it. Chinese bourses weakened very late in the session and ended the day 2-3% lower. The CSI 300 index fell 2.96% - the biggest daily drop since June 2016. The exact cause of the sharp drop is still a bit unclear, but candidates included: the recent domestic govt. bond market sell-off and volatility, rising corporate yields, profit taking, concerns that the government may step up initiatives to cool down the strong gains in certain stocks and further reactions from the recent regulatory tightening in the asset management sector. This aside, we note that despite yesterday’s drop, the CSI index is still up c24% YTD.

    This morning in Asia, markets are trading a bit mixed. Chinese bourses are down 0.4-0.5% but then again they were down a similar amount this time yesterday before the late sell-off. The Nikkei is up 0.13% after trading resumed from a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.25%) and Kospi (+0.09%) are slightly up as we type. The US markets will be open for half day trading today, with the UST 10y yields up c2bp this morning.

    Staying with China, DB’s Zhiwei Zhang takes a closer look at potential macro risks from China . In his note, he tries to gauge the impact of tightening policies on tier 3 cities and finds policy tightening to be effective with a time lag of c3 months. Hence, the impact of the 1st round of tightening should have been reflected in today's property prices, while the impact of the 2nd round is likely to be seen over the next few months. Overall, he reiterates his view that economic growth in China will slow in 4Q17 and 1H18, and that the government may have to loosen property market policy in 2Q18 to stabilise it.

    Moving to Europe, the November Markit PMIs were strong and beat consensus which had anticipated a small pullback. The Eurozone’s flash composite PMI rose to a 6.5 year high (57.5 vs. 56 expected) and is at a level that is broadly consistent with c3.5% yoy GDP growth. A stunning figure for the continent. The strength was led by the manufacturing PMI, which rose 1.5pt to 60 (vs. 58.2 expected) – the highest in 17 years, while the Services PMI also slightly beat (56.2 vs. 55.2 expected). Across the region, the improvements in PMIs were broad based and driven by both core and peripherals (more later). So far, subdued core inflation has kept the pressure off the ECB to move more quickly towards tighter policy. With growth so above trend and the level of slack narrowing, the ECB may struggle to maintain expectations of a very gradual removal of easy policy. Overall, DB’s Peter Sidorov see the timing of the first rate hike at around 2020, as too far out.

    Turning to Germany, there seems to be a glimmer of hope in the coalition talks to form the next government after a softening in the SPD’s position. Bloomberg reported that the Head of Germany’s biggest opposition party (SPD) Mr Schulz is now ready to hold talks with Merkel and is prepared to back her, but only for a minority led government at this stage. Notably, Ms Merkel has signalled she prefers a new election rather than a minority government. Elsewhere, other SPD members seem to be more accommodating, with SPD lawmaker Mr Lauterbach noting “…we want to help Germany and have not ruled out anything”, which includes the option of a renewed “grand coalition” with Merkel’s party, although did add this is a last resort.

    Onto the ECB minutes, which did not seem to be ground breaking as the range of views had already been highlighted in recent speeches. Although, at the margin, it made us feel the first rate hike that is currently priced in at the start of 2020 may need to be moved a bit earlier. In the details, the minutes showed “a large majority” of members supported QE tapering and its nine months extension, but there were debates on whether to set a firm end date or not. Some concerns were that the “open ended nature of [QE]…might generate expectations of further extensions” post September 2018, which ‘from the current perspective, did not appear justified in the absence of major new shocks”. Conversely, others wanted a longer purchase horizon to provide more monetary support and expressed concern of setting a firm date on when the program will stop. Finally, several members suggested delinking the relationship between QE and the inflation outlook and moving to a reference to the monetary policy stance. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Villeroy noted the ECB is clearly making progress in boosting inflation, but “as we are not yet at our target, we must maintain ample degree of monetary stimulus”.

    Over in government bonds, changes in 10y yields were fairly muted. Bunds dipped 0.2bp, while OATs rose 1.2bp and Gilts fell 2.6bp. Notably, peripherals slightly underperformed with yields up 1-2bp.

    Now briefly recapping other markets performance for yesterday. With the US markets closed for Thanksgiving, European markets were mixed but little changed. The Stoxx 600 (+0.02%), DAX (-0.05%) and FTSE (-0.02%) were broadly flat. Notably, the CAC rose 0.50% and peripherals also slightly outperformed (Spain’s IBEX +0.19%; FTSE MIB +0.37%), partly buoyed by the solid PMIs.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling both dipped c0.11% while Euro gained 0.25%. In commodities, WTI oil edged up 0.93% to a fresh two year high, while iron ore jumped 3.87% back to a two month high (c8% up in two days), partly driven by supportive steel rebar prices and the ongoing steel production cuts in China.

    Away from the markets and onto Brexit. It seems the 4th December may be an important turning point for Brexit talks or at least a focal point. The EU President Juncker has confirmed his meeting with UK’s PM May and noted from there “we will see whether we can move forward or whether we are stuck. My hope would be that we move forward”. The FT had previously reported PM May will present her improved financial settlement offer at this meeting. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Villeroy has cautioned that “all actors should as of now undertake…necessary preparations to avoid potential cliff-edge risk” from Brexit. Finally, DB’s Oliver Harvey notes the December EU Council is likely a crunch point for Brexit talks, but achieving the UK government’s hope of wrapping up key trade talks by early next year may be easier said than done, with potential agreement at the December EU summit representing only the end of the beginning of Brexit negotiations.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In Germany, the final reading for the 3Q GDP was unrevised at 0.8% qoq and 2.8% yoy. In the details, net exports have contributed to c50% of the growth with a rise in inventories contributing the remainder. Elsewhere, both the 3Q private consumption (-0.1% qoq vs. 0.2% expected), and capital investments (0.4% qoq vs. 1.4% expected) were lower than expected, but the softness was partly due to upward revisions to prior readings.

    In the UK, the second reading of the 3Q GDP was unrevised at 0.4% qoq and 1.5% yoy. The 3Q private consumption slightly beat expectations (0.6% qoq vs. 0.4% expected) to the highest since 3Q16, but fixed capital formation (0.2% qoq vs. 0.4% expected) was a bit softer. Elsewhere, the November CBI’s distributive trade survey was more upbeat following a tough October, with a net 26% of respondents noting growth in sales over the past year and a net 24% expecting growth to continue next month. Finally, in France , both the November Business confidence (111 vs. 109 expected) and manufacturing confidence (112 vs. 111 expected) were above expectations, with business confidence almost at a decade high.

    For completeness, following up on the aforementioned flash PMIs across the EU bloc. In Germany, the composite PMI (57.6 vs. 56.7 expected) and manufacturing (62.5 vs. 60.4 expected) were both higher than expected, with the latter at the highest since 2011, while the services PMI (54.9 vs. 55 expected) was a tad softer. In France, the composite (60.1 vs. 57.2 expected), services (60.2 vs. 57 expected) and manufacturing PMIs (57.5 vs. 55.9 expected) all beat expectations.

    Looking at the day ahead, in Germany we’ll receive the November IFO survey. In the US, there is the flash November PMIs. Black Friday also marks the traditional start of the US holiday shopping season and any clues to footfall and overall sales will be closely watched. One other event potentially keeping an eye on is S&P and Moody’s scheduled sovereign rating reviews of South Africa, with the country at risk of losing its investment grade status. The ECB’s Supervisory chair Ms Nouy will also speak today.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...pean-euphoria-takes-over-forgotten-china-rout
     

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