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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Alert: Gold Breaks Out to New 2017 High


    -- Published: Tuesday, 29 August 2017

    By Stefan Gleason

    Gold’s naysayers and doubters came out in full force earlier this summer as sentiment reached its nadir. The mid-year pullback in prices did, too.

    There can be no doubt about it now – gold has broken out of its summer doldrums. On Monday, the yellow metal finally broke through the longstanding $1,300/oz resistance zone to make a new high for the year at $1,316.

    [​IMG]

    Assuming the breakout holds, the next upside target is $1,375/oz, the high point for 2016.

    There are plenty of bullish factors behind gold’s recent upside momentum to continue pushing prices higher in the days and weeks ahead. The gold mining stocks are starting to show relative strength again. And the U.S. Dollar Index appears to have begun another new down leg this week, falling Monday to a two-and-a-half-year low.

    Another bullish factor is geopolitics. Gold gained a few more dollars in early trading Tuesday morning in Asia after North Korea launched a missile over Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "Their outrageous act of firing a missile over our country is an unprecedented, serious and grave threat and greatly damages regional peace and security."

    On any ordinary news day, this dangerous provocation from North Korea would be the top story on all the cable news channels. Hawks would be calling on the U.S. to retaliate, and doves would be warning of the potential for millions of deaths in the event war breaks out in the densely populated region.

    For now, though, the unprecedented flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey is the Trump administration’s top priority. Early estimates are that the storm has caused $40 billion in damage. Water levels are still rising in Houston, and surrounding areas extending to Louisiana, so the scale of the catastrophic losses stemming from 11 trillion gallons of water will continue to grow in the days ahead.

    Several major oil refineries have been shut down by the storm. However, crude oil production is little affected. Oil inventories are expected to build even as gasoline prices rise (gasoline futures jumped 3% on Monday).

    The disaster is bringing Americans from disparate backgrounds and worldviews together, united in a common purpose to help provide relief to those in need. Perhaps Congress will set aside some of its partisan acrimony when it goes back into session next week. Unfortunately for taxpayers, though, outbreaks of bipartisanship are usually associated with emergencies that cause both sides to agree on even more spending.

    The political pressure to make sure federal agencies are equipped to handle Harvey relief efforts (which will be ongoing for months) figures to be overwhelming. Conservatives who had aimed to force concessions in an upcoming budget fight may conclude that they now have no leverage to do so.

    [​IMG]

    President Donald Trump so far hasn’t backed off his vow to pursue border wall funding even if Congress refuses and a government shutdown occurs. But a government shutdown in the aftermath of a major natural disaster could be a political disaster for whoever gets blamed for it.

    With so many risks hitting investors this week, it’s no surprise that the gold market is benefiting from safe-haven inflows.

    Silver is benefiting as well. Although the silver market has not yet hit a new high for the year, prices advanced nearly 2.5% Monday to close above the 200-day moving average.

    If silver can now start showing leadership, that would be bullish for the entire precious metals complex. The gold:silver ratio currently stands at about 75:1. Gold is still trading at a high price historically relative to silver.

    The ratio can move rapidly to the downside when silver prices are surging. That was the case from late 2010 to early 2011, when the ratio dropped from the high 60s to the low 30s. An even bigger move could be in store for those who buy silver now, while the gold:silver ratio is still in the 70s.

    Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason is a seasoned business leader, investor, political strategist, and grassroots activist. Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC, and his writings have appeared in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Detroit News, Washington Times, and National Review.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1504028470.php
     
  2. searcher

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Dollar Falling, German Gold - Usurper Socialists
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Aug 29, 2017
    Junius Maltby channel discussion on recent news and headlines. Dollar falling, markets selling, gold firm with EU in peril and Germany finalizing its gold repatriation. America has a "domestic" problem and it wheres masks.
    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
    Channel Coin:
    https://qualitysilverbullion.com/prod...

    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
  4. searcher

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  6. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    TVR [#383] 08-29-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: $0.11 CENT SILVER???
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Aug 29, 2017

    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
  7. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Charles Nenner - Social Unrest in US Bigger Problem Than North Korea
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Aug 29, 2017
    Charles Nenner, renowned financial and geopolitical analyst is also long term bullish on gold. Why does he like the yellow metal? Nenner says, “Gold goes up 50% of the time in inflation and also 50% of the time in deflation. Most people don’t know that. If stocks go down and bonds are not safe and real estate goes down, where are you going to put your money? You put it in gold.”

    Nenner’s biggest problem area is extreme social unrest in the U.S. Nenner explains, “I just saw on television there was a peaceful right wing march, and I saw all the left wing people coming in with black clothes and with bottles and beating them up. This is exactly the 60 year cycle in social unrest. So, social unrest is in a cycle and apart from North Korea. This is very worrisome. This social cycle is worrisome in the United States because of social media. A small group can have more influence than a big group. The other thing I might say, and I am not afraid to speak up, I can almost not live in this country, the U.S., because you cannot say the truth. You can’t say what the facts are . . . like both sides were at fault in Charlottesville. I would say I would worry more about the social unrest and breaking up the United States than I worry about North Korea.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial and geopolitical cycle expert Charles Nenner.

    Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

    https://usawatchdog.com/join/

    All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/get-totally-o...
     
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  9. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Traders Rush to Ship Oil from Louisiana Ahead of Harvey

    August 29, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    The Valero Houston Refinery is threatened by the swelling waters of the Buffalo Bayou after Hurricane Harvey inundated the Texas Gulf coast with rain, in Houston, Texas, U.S. August 27, 2017. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

    By Catherine Ngai and Marianna Parraga NEW YORK/HOUSTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) – Oil traders were scrambling on Tuesday to move crude and fuel supplies through ports in Louisiana as Tropical Storm Harvey barreled toward the state, threatening to close the last major oil terminals still operating on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    Harvey pummeled the heart of the U.S. energy industry in Texas, dumping a record amount of rain and triggering catastrophic flooding in Houston. Harvey was the strongest storm to hit the state in more than 50 years, forcing operators to shut refineries, pipelines and ports.

    Click here for port update

    Harvey was forecast to come ashore in western Louisiana near the Texas border on Wednesday. The region includes the St. James trading hub, with more than 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity. It is also home of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest privately owned U.S. crude storage terminal.

    Louisiana had become the last exit and entry point into refinery row on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Its ports import and export millions of barrels per day (bpd) of crude and fuel. Texas and Louisiana are home to 45 percent of total U.S. refining capacity.

    “Louisiana is open and being used as much as possible to discharge fuel and load exports,” a trader at a refinery said.

    Other traders also said they were hurrying to take advantage of the closing window to import fuel into the U.S. Gulf as prices skyrocket. Prices in the region have risen as supply falls due to refinery closures.

    According to Eikon shipping data, the Ridgebury Julia, a tanker carrying oil products, was diverted earlier this week. It was originally going to Corpus Christi, Texas. As of Tuesday, it changed its destination to New Orleans.

    Buyers for Latin America, where many countries are heavily reliant on U.S. supplies, are trying to buy cargoes. Asian refiners are also keen to buy U.S. cargoes and concerned about delays to those they have already bought, shipping sources said.

    The window for shipping is closing as conditions deteriorate and Harvey moves east toward refineries and ports in the state.

    The prices in spot markets for gasoline in the Gulf have soared above benchmark prices in New York Harbor, according to Reuters data.

    U.S. crude prices have fallen because refiners are processing less oil. That has pushed U.S. crude prices below prices for crude elsewhere, making it cheap for international refiners if they can still get a cargo out.

    U.S. crude’s discount to London’s Brent futures

    The Houston Ship Channel was shut, and the Port of Houston will remain closed on Wednesday.

    The backlog in unexported refined products will be a challenge to Texas Gulf Coast refiners, according to Sandy Fielden, an analyst at Morningstar.

    Damage to roads and fuel stations may delay some refinery restarts, he said, because they would quickly run out of storage of fuel produced. (Editing by Simon Webb and David Gregorio)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    Filed Under: Maritime News Tagged With: hurricane Harvey

    http://gcaptain.com/traders-rush-to-ship-oil-from-louisiana-ahead-of-harvey/
     
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    World Stocks Rebound, Dollar Rises As Korea Nuclear War Fears Recede

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Aug 30, 2017 6:58 AM


    S&P futures are higher in early Wednesday trading, alongside Asian stocks and European bourses, both solidly in the green as the EURUSD drifts below the 1.20 "redline" while the dollar rebounds off a two and a half year low following the US "measured" response to North Korea’s missile test, which soothed jittery investors who now turn their focus to US economic data. Equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea also rose while 10Y US Treasuries are steady before the release of ADP employment and GDP data, both of which are expected to show an increase. The VIX is down fractionally to 11.60.

    European stocks rose higher, tracking counterparts in Asia and the United States and reversing losses from the day before when investors were spooked by Pyongyang’s firing of a ballistic missile over Japan. Fears that this could trigger an aggressive response receded on Wednesday after the United Nations - in a statement drafted by the United States - condemned North Korea’s latest missile launch but held back any threat of new sanctions.

    Trump, who previously vowed not to let North Korea develop nuclear missiles that can hit the mainland United States, said the world had received North Korea’s latest message “loud and clear”.

    “Instead of the (U.S.) President responding to the escalation via Twitter, as has happened on many recent occasions, the White House issued an official statement to condemn the action,” said IronFX analyst Charalambos Pissouros. “This may have been interpreted by investors as a sign that the US will approach the situation in a more measured and diplomatic manner, as opposed to raining down ’fire and fury’.” North Korean media reports on the launch also lacked their usual claims of technical advances, indicating the test may not have succeeded as planned.

    Boosted by this optimism from Trump's response, European markets rebounded after yesterday's U.S.-led unwind of the North Korea related risk-off move. DXY holds at overnight strongest levels; AUD marginally outperforms after solid construction data; USD/JPY briefly traded above 110.00 through the European open which also provides a lift to U.S. equity futures.



    [​IMG]

    In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, recovering nearly all the ground lost in the previous session and banking stocks - which had led the risk-averse move lower on Tuesday - were up nearly 1 percent, while the utilities sector lags after France warns on eventual closure of nuclear plants. European strength emerged after the stronger dollar pushed the EURUSD off the 1.20 ledg, trading below 1.950 last. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased 0.2%. Germany’s DAX Index rose 0.4 percent, the largest advance in more than a week.



    [​IMG]

    European upside followed gains in Asia, where MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6% while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.7%. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.2%, closing above 28,000 for the first time in two years as concern over North Korea tensions waned and China Shenhua Energy led power producers higher, while banks rose ahead of earnings results. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated before edging lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent.

    The Chinese currency extended a surge that made it Asia’s best performer this month, rising to its highest level since June 2016 amid a weak dollar, following 11 consecutive days of increases in the offshore CNH. The CNY strengthens 0.05% to 6.5923 per dollar as of late afternoon trading in Shanghai in fourth day of gains; the currency has climbed 2.1% this month. On Wednesday, the PBOC strengthened the yuan reference rate for the third day, raising it by 0.29% to 6.6102, meanwhile the Bloomberg replica of CFETS index, which tracks the yuan against 24 currencies, climbed 0.37% to 94.0325, highest since Aug. 11

    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile, Bund futures edged higher as German regional CPIs indicated a national reading broadly in-line with consensus, German and U.K. curves slightly steeper. Euro zone government bond yields, which fell to fresh lows on Tuesday, edged up on Wednesday as forecast-beating inflation in Spain was expected to be followed by similar data in Germany, defying the euro’s recent strength. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed less than one basis point to 2.13%. Germany’s 10-year Bunds increased one basis point to 0.35%, while Britain’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 1.019%, the largest advance in more than a week.

    In commodities, gasoline hit a two-year high, rallying another 2.8%, after Hurricane Harvey shut down nearly a fifth of U.S refining capacity, and more closures are expected.

    However, the rising crude inventories as a result of refinery shutdowns, weighed on oil prices. U.S. crude futures fell 0.6 percent to $46.17 a barrel, after touching a five-week low on Tuesday. Brent slipped 0.6 percent to $51.67. Spot gold edged marginally lower to $1,309.39 an ounce on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the precious metal jumped to its highest since Trump was elected U.S. president.

    Economic data include second print on GDP growth, weekly MBA mortgage applications and August ADP employment. Analog Devices Inc. and Workday Inc. are among companies reporting earnings.

    Bulletin Healine Summary from RanSquawk
    • European equities enter the North American crossover higher as markets look through some of the recent NKrelated
      tensions
    • USD is trading at better levels against its major counterparts to pare yesterday’s declines. USD/JPY briefly back above
      110.0, although under now
    • Looking ahead, highlights include national German CPI, US ADP, PCE, DoEs and Fed’s Powell
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,450.50
    • VIX -0.10 or -0.85%, to 11.60
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 370.15
    • MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 160.47
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.6% to 531.87
    • Nikkei up 0.7% to 19,506.54
    • Topix up 0.6% to 1,607.65
    • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 28,094.61
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.05% to 3,363.63
    • Sensex up 0.9% to 31,681.89
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.01% to 5,669.72
    • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,372.29
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.355%
    • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1944
    • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $51.56/bbl
    • US 10Y yield rose 2bp to 2.13%
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 1.774%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 1.579%
    • Brent Futures down 1.1% to $51.41/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,311.67
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 92.51
    Top Overnight News
    • Euro-area economic confidence rose to the highest level in a decade as European Central Bank policy makers prepare for a discussion next week about whether and how to pare back stimulus
    • With floodwaters still rising and damage estimates piling up, analysts expect just a modest dent in the U.S. economy from Hurricane Harvey this quarter, with reconstruction efforts likely to be substantial enough to boost growth later this year
    • North Korea’s Kim says IRBM firing is ’prelude’ to containing Guam; Yonhap says possibility that North Korea launches missile into the Pacific Ocean to show off ability to strike U.S. mainland cannot be excluded
    • On Tuesday morning, disaster analyst Chuck Watson had pegged $42 billion as a reasonable estimate for the cost of destruction Tropical Storm Harvey would leave in its wake. By the end of the day, he’d added another $10 billion
    • With floodwaters still rising and damage estimates piling up, analysts expect just a modest dent in the U.S. economy from Hurricane Harvey this quarter, with reconstruction efforts likely to be substantial enough to boost growth later this year
    • Fed policy makers hoping for a pick-up in inflation in the coming months may end up being frustrated by a quirk in the price data
    • Resilient economic growth and a government campaign against excessive leverage are helping China’s largest banks, curbing their bad loans and underpinning their net interest margins
    • Euro-area economic confidence rose to the highest level in a decade as European Central Bank policy makers prepare for a discussion next week about whether and how to pare back stimulus
    • Banks have a challenge when Congress returns from summer recess next week. His name is John Neely Kennedy. The freshman Republican senator from Louisiana is one of a handful of lawmakers who could squash the finance industry’s dream of tweaking a key Consumer Financial Protection Bureau regulation
    • Toyota Tsusho Corp., the automaker’s trading arm, will invest an undisclosed amount in Grab, Southeast Asia’s leading ride-hailing operator
    • German Aug. Regional CPIs y/y (National est. 1.8%): Saxony 1.9%; Brandenburg 1.8%; Hesse 1.8%; Bavaria 1.8%; NRW 1.9%
    • U.K. PM May: no Brexit deal is still better than a bad deal; wants a smooth Brexit and implementation period
    • ‘Apocalyptic’ Flooding Has Harvey Damages Rising by the Hour
    • Kim Says Missile Over Japan Was ‘Prelude’ to Containing Guam
    • Latest North Korea Missile Launch Spurred White House Game Plan
    • United Technologies Nears $20 Billion Rockwell Deal, WSJ Says
    • Uber Draws Justice Department Inquiry Over Foreign Payments
    • Uber CEO Pick Embraces Job as ‘Opportunity of a Lifetime’
    • RBNZ’s Wheeler says lower NZD needed; scope for easing if growth slows
    • Amazon, Microsoft to Enable Alexa, Cortana to Communicate: NYT
    • China Regulator Is Said to Review Antitrust Complaint on Apple
    • Tillerson to Meet With Heads of Delta, United, American: State
    • Goldman to Detail Bond-Trading Unit Strategy in Sept.: Reuters
    • Equipment Rentals Are Unlikely to Rise From Harvey: Wells Fargo
    Asia equities traded mostly positive as the region followed suit from the improvement in sentiment seen in US, where
    markets ignored the geopolitical concerns and bought the dip. This saw a rebound in Asia stocks with Nikkei 225 (+0.7%)
    underpinned as the USD/JPY-risk relationship took full effect and with better than expected Retail Sales adding to the optimism.
    ASX 200 (flat) lagged and was negative for most of the day as continued weakness in financials and hefty losses in telecoms
    dragged, with Telstra the worst performer as it traded ex-dividend and after the NBN rejected Co.’s monetisation plan. Elsewhere,
    Shanghai Comp. (flat) and Hang Seng (+1.2%) benefited from the increased risk appetite and after a firmer liquidity operation by
    the PBoC, although gains in the mainland were later pared amid weakness in Chinese commodity prices. Finally, 10yr JGBs were
    lower amid flows into riskier assets, while a lukewarm BoJ Rinban announcement also failed to spur demand.

    Top Asian News
    • China’s $2 Trillion of Shadow Lending Throws Focus on Rust Belt
    • Japan Stocks to Watch: Fujifilm, Mitsubishi Motors, Nitto Denko
    • Foreign Banks Chase Panda Bond Deals as Chinese Market Grows
    • Rio Tinto Weighs ‘Stay-or-Go’ Call on Indonesia’s Grasberg
    • Yuan Strength Helps Chinese Airlines Soar Amid Mixed Earnings
    • Japan Stocks Blasé After North Korean Missile Launches This Year
    • M&S in Talks to Sell Hong Kong, Macau Units to Al- Futtaim
    • Hong Kong’s H-Share Index Trailing in Hang Seng’s Wake
    • India Dodgy Contracts Record Risks Turning Away Investors
    Modest relief bounce in European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%) this morning following yesterday’s fall to 6-month lows with all
    sectors (with the exception of utilities) trading in positive territory. Jitters regarding North Korea are somewhat dissipating slightly.
    EGB yields ticking higher this morning amid the reversal in price action across equity markets, while slight
    underperformance has been observed in the belly of the curve with the 10Y yield tracking higher by 2.1bps. Peripheral spreads vs
    Germany are slightly narrower today with the German/Portuguese spread tighter by 0.3bps. Supply from Italy was relatively well
    absorbed by the market.

    Top European News
    • U.K. Asked EU for More Time to Talk Brexit as Reality Sinks in
    • Cryptocurrencies Are New Barbarians at the Gate of Central Banks
    • Russia Readies Emergency Loans to Contain Bank Otkritie Crisis
    • U.K. Consumer Borrowing Cools Slightly as Business Loans Jump
    • Ocado Rises as Citi Sees Amazon-Whole Foods Piquing Interest
    • Siemens Extends Push Into Driverless Cars With TASS Acquisition
    • NordLB First Half Net Interest Income EU731 Mln
    • Fortum May Be Eyeing PVO or Uniper Acquisition, Nordea Says
    In currencies, USD trading at better levels against its major counterparts to pare yesterday’s declines. USD/JPY back above 110.00 amid the slight improvement in risk sentiment, next resistance in the pair resides around 110.35-40.
    EUR is lower this morning, albeit mildly so, despite the first of the regional German CPI data (Saxony) showing an increase in Y/Y
    inflation, which is also above analyst estimates for the national figure. As such, a continuation of this trend among other regions
    could see EUR better supported throughout the session. Slight profit taking has been seen in EUR after yesterday hitting a new 2
    and a half year high at 1.2070.

    AUD: Main mover overnight had been the AUD, which approached 0.80 having reached a high of 0.7995. This followed some
    relatively strong data in the form of building and construction data, while gains against the JPY and NZD further underpinned AUD.

    AUD/NZD briefly broke above 1.10 before running into resistance at the YTD high of 1.1020.

    In commodities, crude oil prices continuing to feel the pressure from Hurricane Harvey with a 5th of US refining capacity now shut and as such, likely to reduce demand from refineries. Gasoline however, has hit two year highs given the risk of fuel shortages. Of note, last night’s API report showed a drawdown of 5.7mln in US crude. Elsewhere, gold has faced some selling pressure amid the resurgence of the USD and mild reprieve in NK-related tensions. Chinese iron ore prices were also seen lower overnight in a pullback from some of the recent sharp gains.

    Libya's NOC says 360kbpd of crude production shutdown by pipeline blockades that have closed 3 fields. US API weekly crude stocks (21 Aug, w/e) -5780K (Prev. -3595K). Valero Port Arthur refinery is shutting large crude unit and gasoline unit, due to Harvey. Motiva states that although weather conditions continue to deteriorate, Port Arthur refinery remains stable at 40% of capacity.

    Looking at the day ahead, US’s ADP employment change for August (185k expected) will be worth watching in the context of Friday’s payrolls while the second readings for 2Q GDP (2.7% expected) and core PCE are due. Away from the data, the Fed’s Powell will speak today.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.5%
    • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 185,000, prior 178,000
    • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
    • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 3.0%, prior 2.8%
    • 8:30am: GDP Price Index, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
    • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    With geopolitics back in the spotlight and markets somewhat treading on eggshells again the most eye-catching move for us yesterday was seeing Treasury yields dart back below their pre-Sintra levels. Indeed at one stage 10y Treasuries touched as low as 2.084% yesterday morning before ending last night a bit higher at 2.129%. On an intraday basis the low for the year had been 2.101% back in the middle of June before the coordinated hawkish message in Portugal later that month. 10y Bunds (-3.4bps to 0.338%) are now also less than 10bps away from their pre-Sintra levels after topping out at 0.597% just over a month ago. Benchmark OATs are also within 6bps of their YTD lows while bond markets in the Netherlands and the UK are also near their lows.

    A decent run for DM bond markets then which is noticeable when you consider that global growth signals (recent PMIs) have been robust, commodity prices ex oil are either at or around YTD highs for the most part and the expectation is still that the ECB is likely to signal a tapering this autumn and the Fed might still hike again in December (albeit with market pricing down to just 30% based on Bloomberg’s calculator). All these factors have been put to one side however as politics has taken center stage through the northern hemisphere summer. Concerns firstly about President Trump’s political agenda and more recently the debt ceiling and now the latest North Korea developments have certainly all played a role in the recent moves. Regarding the latter, the response by President Trump yesterday to North Korea firing a missile over Japan was to say that “all options are on the table” for a response while North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has said overnight that the missile test was a “meaningful prelude to containing Guam” according to North Korean state media.

    The response from markets meanwhile has actually been more of a tale of two halves. The initial reaction was to see safe havens rally and European equities selloff. Indeed the Stoxx 600 ended -1.04% although in fairness that wasn’t helped by another strong session for the Euro which smashed through 1.200 versus the Dollar before softening a bit into the evening to close at 1.1972 (-0.06%). After the S&P 500 initially opened -0.66% the tone swiftly reversed with the view that the response from world leaders was fairly measured and further escalation was unlikely. The S&P closed +0.08% by the end of play with losses for banks and Best Buy (-12% post results) offset by gains from the industrials and tech sectors. The VIX, which topped out at 14.34 intraday and the highest in over a week, finished up ‘just’ +3.36% at 11.70 and well below the two peaks of earlier this month (15.55 and 15.51). Other safe havens yesterday pared gains with Gold down -0.07% after being up +1.20% and the Swiss Franc +0.05% after being up +1.32%.

    This morning in Asia markets have broadly followed the US lead and are trading higher, with the Kospi (+0.08%), Nikkei (+0.58%) and Hang Seng (+0.75%) all firmer, while only the ASX 200 (-0.20%) is struggling for traction. The Korean Won is also +0.40% this morning while US equity futures are pointing towards a positive start. The other notable mover is US gasoline prices which having rallied over +4% yesterday are up another +3.21% this morning in the wake of Tropical Storm Harvey.

    Moving on. One thing worth highlighting this morning is a Politico story which ran last night suggesting that Trump will today launch a “major push for a sweeping tax overhaul” at a speech in Missouri. The article suggests that the speech is to be focused on the US corporate system and making it more competitive on a global scale, as well as wiping out deductions that benefit higher-income tax payers. So we’ll see what that has in store.

    Jumping to the latest on Brexit now where there are only two more rounds of talks penciled in before an EU summit and things do not appear to be going smoothly based on the reports that have emerged. The UK has reportedly asked for more negotiating time with the EU to pick up the pace, but the EU first wants to settle the terms of the split, particularly the financial settlement and seems happy to shift to more talks in December. To put it into context, European Commission President Juncker said “I’ve read all (UK government’s) position papers and none of them is satisfactory”. A spokesman for UK PM Theresa May said “we believe we’re in a good position and we would like to move on to discuss our future relationship”.

    Staying in Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke at her annual summer press conference and covered a range of topics. On the rising Euro, Merkel highlighted that it is almost certain to have an impact on exports, but the trade surplus is the result of solid demand for German products and “does not view the trade surplus as so dramatic”. Elsewhere, Merkel noted that she “doesn’t have anything against the concept of an EU finance minister”, but “you just have to work out what he/she could do and we’re not at that point yet in our talks with France”.

    Across the pond the Treasury’s four week $25bn bill sale went smoothly yesterday at a yield of 0.960% and achieved the highest bid-to-cover ratio since the 7th March auction. The notes mature just before the US potentially facing a funding shortfall if the debt ceiling was not raised.

    Wrapping up yesterday’s macro data in the US which was largely in-line to slightly firmer than expected. The August Conference Board consumer confidence index was up 2.9pts to 122.9 (vs 120.7), which is the highest reading since December 2000 (excluding March this year) and could have been stronger if factoring in the small downward revision to the prior reading. Elsewhere, the June Case-Shiller house price index was broadly in line at 0.11% mom (vs 0.10% expected) and 5.65% yoy (vs 5.60% expected).

    Over inFrance, 2Q GDP was in line at 0.5% qoq, but revisions nudged the annual growth rate down slightly to 1.7% yoy (vs 1.8%). Consumer spending for July was in line at 0.7% mom, lifting the annual growth rate to 2.1% yoy (vs 1.8%), which is the highest reading for this year. InGermany, the consumer confidence index was slightly ahead of expectations at 10.9 (vs 10.8), which marks a fresh 16-year high. In the UK, the August Nationwide house price index was slightly lower than expected at -0.1% mom (vs 0% expected) and 2.1% yoy (vs 2.5%).

    Before we look at the day ahead, a quick mention that on credit derivatives, Michal in our team published a report “iTraxx Main: Buy the 3s5s10s Fly” yesterday. He fleshes out his latest views on CDS index curves and provides a detailed analysis of the trade, including recent regulatory developments that should support its performance. You should find the note in your inbox or email Michal.Jezek@db.com for a copy if not.

    Looking at the day ahead,Germany’s preliminary inflation readings for August (0.1% mom and 1.8% yoy expected) and Italy’s July PPI data are due. In the UK, the July mortgage approvals and data on money supply as well as net credit lending are also due. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s August confidence indicators for business, consumer and the economy are also due. Across the pond, US’s ADP employment change for August (185k expected) will be worth watching in the context of Friday’s payrolls while the second readings for 2Q GDP (2.7% expected) and core PCE are due. Away from the data, the Fed’s Powell will speak today.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...d-dollar-rises-korea-nuclear-war-fears-recede
     
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    Frontrunning: August 30

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Aug 30, 2017 7:56 AM


    • Harvey Forces Thousands to Seek Shelter (WSJ)
    • Damage From Harvey Rising by the Hour Amid ‘Apocalyptic’ Flooding (BBG)
    • Houston’s Economic Heft Gives City Means to Recover From Harvey (WSJ)
    • Why Trump Didn’t Tweet About Latest North Korea Missile Launch (BBG)
    • Stocks Rebound as Korean Fears Abate; Gold Steady: Markets Wrap (BBG)
    • Value of Trump's brand up in Middle East, his Gulf partner says (Reuters)
    • From Stocks to Bonds, the Bear-Market Signals Are Multiplying (BBG)
    • Trump hits road to tout tax reform as helping workers (Reuters)
    • Trump Pitches Business Tax Cut to Middle Class (WSJ)
    • Trump’s Tax Pitch Will Be Populist, But Bill May Benefit Elites (BBG)
    • Message from North Korean missile over Japan 'loud and clear': Trump (Reuters)
    • Businesses Struggle With Flawed Insurance as Floods Multiply (WSJ)
    • White House downplays Charlottesville comments from Tillerson, Cohn (Reuters)
    • 21st Century Fox Pulls Plug on Fox News in the U.K. (WSJ)
    • This Freshman GOP Senator Could Defy Wall Street (BBG)
    • White House Won’t Require Firms to Report Pay by Gender, Race (WSJ)
    • Dollar Rebound Threatens Euro's Jackson Hole Breakout Level (BBG)
    • Abbott Releases New Software Updates for Pacemakers (WSJ)
    • Apple App Store to Let Chinese Customers Pay Using WeChat Pay (WSJ)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The Justice Department has taken preliminary steps to investigate whether managers at Uber Technologies Inc violated a U.S. law against foreign bribery, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2gpbwqM

    - Even before he takes the job as Uber Technologies Inc's new chief executive, fresh challenges confront Expedia Inc CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, with news of a federal bribery probe into Uber and public disagreement over how the board's decision to hire him unfolded. on.wsj.com/2gohMyZ

    - Apple Inc is scrambling to strike deals with Hollywood studios to offer ultrahigh-definition films on its new Apple TV, but discussions have been hampered by disagreements over pricing, according to people with knowledge of the talks. on.wsj.com/2gnOqR4

    - A federal appeals court ordered the Federal Communications Commission to give two firms affiliated with Dish Network Corp another chance at success in an airwaves auction where the FCC determined they were ineligible for crucial small-business discounts. on.wsj.com/2go4kuV

    - Low-cost airline Allegiant Travel Co will venture into real estate with a sprawling resort on Florida's Gulf Coast, even as hotel development slows nationwide amid a glut of rooms. on.wsj.com/2gpSi4l

    FT

    * United Technologies Corp , owner of jet-engine maker Pratt & Whitney, is in talks to acquire aircraft component manufacturer Rockwell Collins Inc for almost $30 billion, including debt.

    * British Prime Minister Theresa May will look to ease corporate Japan’s worries about Brexit during a three-day visit to the country from Wednesday focused on progress on a bilateral trade deal for when Britain leaves the European Union.

    * President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that all options are on the table for the United States to respond to North Korea’s firing of a ballistic missile over northern Japan’s Hokkaido island into the sea in a new show of force.

    NYT

    - Domino's Pizza Inc this week plans to start testing deliveries using Ford Motor Co self-driving Ford Fusion sedan outfitted with enough sensors, electronics and software to find its way to customers' homes or offices in a section of this city 40 miles west of Detroit. nyti.ms/2x2Bp5I

    - A federal judge on Tuesday dismissed a defamation lawsuit filed by the former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin against The New York Times, saying Ms. Palin's complaint failed to show that a mistake in an editorial was made maliciously. nyti.ms/2iHhPGD

    - Worried by a long-term rise in inequality, Britain announced on Tuesday a series of measures aimed at increasing transparency over executive compensation, hoping to ramp up pressure on companies that offer lavish salaries for bosses but restrict pay for regular employees. nyti.ms/2wh9Ipg

    - A deal unveiled on Tuesday between the mining company Freeport-McMoRan Inc and the Indonesian government which is meant to bring an end to years of rising public anger over American control of one of the mining industry's crown jewels. It could also end a fight between the two sides that limited output at the mine and impacted metals prices worldwide. nyti.ms/2vHTDp1

    Britain

    The Times

    - Asos is little more than 100 million pounds ($129.28 million) short of overtaking the market value of Marks & Spencer Group Plc in what is being called the UK high street's "Tesla moment". The Aim-listed internet-only fashion retailer was worth 4.93 billion pounds ($6.37 billion) yesterday compared with M&S's 5.05 billion pounds ($6.53 billion). bit.ly/2wHJ3mf

    - The regime at Mitie Group Plc run by Baroness McGregor-Smith has come under investigation by UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The announcement that FCA has begun an inquiry into the timing of a profit warning last September that preceded the departure of Lady McGregor-Smith from Mitie is the latest setback for the former chief executive of the FTSE 250 company. bit.ly/2wmsY2P

    The Guardian

    - Downing Street has said UK government will not back away from its demand to kick off negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal as soon as possible – even though the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, flatly dismissed the idea on Tuesday. bit.ly/2wmzJBI

    The Telegraph

    - UK Government will reboot its industrial strategy today with a 160 million pound ($206.85 million) injection into Britain's drugs sector, with a major vaccines lab to prepare the country for emergency epidemics among the first initiatives to get support. bit.ly/2wmYlKK

    - UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been forced to abandon her flagship plan to reform executive pay, prompting relief among business leaders but criticism from unions and Labour MPs. bit.ly/2wmEDPi

    Sky News

    - Tom and Ruth Chapman, who founded Matchesfashion.com, the online luxury fashion boutique, are close to sealing the sale of their company for about 800 million pound ($1.03 billion)to the private equity firm Apax Partners. bit.ly/2wHfKR1

    - Arnold Schwarzenegger is fronting a campaign warning consumers they only have two years to claim compensation for mis-sold payment protection insurance. The 42 million pound ($54.30 million) campaign is the brainchild of UK's Financial Conduct Authority, which believes the sector's biggest mis-selling scandal is far from over as the clock ticks down to the 29 August 2019 deadline for claims. bit.ly/2wHlqdH

    The Independent

    - UK care home system is "teetering on a knife edge" thanks to a severe skills crisis that risks being worsened by Brexit, recruiters have warned. Care homes rely heavily on migrant labour and the risk of a staff shortage as a result of UK's decision to leave the EU, coupled with fewer nurses already entering the profession, could "bring the entire system to a standstill", according to specialist nursing practice Clayton Recruitment. ind.pn/2wH7LDo

    - UK house price growth eased to its slowest in three months in August, underscoring the impact of a falling pound and an inflation jump on consumer appetite for big-ticket purchases. Nationwide's monthly house price index showed on Tuesday that house prices rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in the month, down from a 2.9 percent rise in July and matching May's four-year low. ind.pn/2wHhE47

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/frontrunning-august-30
     
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    TVR [#384] 08-30-2017 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN: CRASH ALERTS PLAY OUT
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Aug 30, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    DAT: Supply chain already feeling effects of Hurricane Harvey
    Houston's critical location for freight shipments creates logistical challenges
    Aug 29, 2017 Neil Abt


    “It changes the shipping patterns, it increases the length of haul, and has a ripple effect throughout the supply chain.” - DAT's Matt Montague

    [​IMG]
    A view of the flooding from Hurricane Harvey southwest of Houston. (Photo: U.S. Coast Guard)

    Related Media
    [​IMG]
    Hurricane Harvey may sideline 7% of the trucking industry


    As Hurricane Harvey continues to devastate Houston, the shocking images are drawing comparisons to Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans in 2005.

    Unfortunately, Houston’s unique location means the supply chain is already feeling Harvey’s effects, even before the rain stops falling, according to executives with DAT load board.

    “Katrina was a horrible storm that impacted homes, families, and business,” said Eileen Hart, DAT’s vice president of marketing and corporate communications. “With Houston, you have that, plus all of the freight that normally goes in and out of there. Now that freight has to get where it needs to go through other places.”

    Popular Now
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    Matt Montague, DAT senior industry analyst, noted companies that have distribution centers in Houston are unlikely to have other facilities in nearby metropolitan areas such as Dallas. As a result, they need to ship freight from alternative areas to serve customers in and around Texas.

    “That is why this has such a national impact,” he said. “It changes the shipping patterns, it increases the length of haul, and has a ripple effect throughout the supply chain.”

    Houston, the nation’s fourth most populous city, is among the top six freight transportation hubs.

    [​IMG]
    The Port of Houston will remain closed at least through Aug. 30 due to the storm. (Photo: Port of Houston)

    On the spot market, it is first in flatbed moves because of the energy industry that requires drilling rigs and pipes to be brought into the area, and results exports of industrial plastics and other products.

    Houston has also seen strong growth in the dry van market, as imports of citrus from South America enter through the Port of Houston, which remains closed due to Harvey. In addition, it has become a major distribution point for fresh fruits and vegetables from the Rio Grande Valley, and is a critical artery in cross-border trade.

    The storm will create major “ripple effects” for freight railroads and intermodal hubs, and will require re-routing of ocean cargo to ports on the East and West Coasts.

    “This is going to take a long time to untangle,” said DAT market analyst Peggy Dorf.

    Late last week, as the storm approached Texas, spot prices for intrastate van moves soared about 37 cents a mile from a week earlier. That was an indication shippers were “actively seeking to move truckload freight out of the storm zone, but to keep it within the state,” said Dorf.

    Spot rates from Texas to other nearby states also spiked, she added.

    While more current rate data was not yet available, Hart said more trucks are heading to staging grounds such as San Antonio and Dallas until they can safely reach Houston.

    At the same time, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) are among the groups using the spot market and freight brokers to find hundreds of tractor-trailers and drivers to position emergency supplies to the region.

    That is adding more complexity to an already busy week, as more shipments were planned ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, Montague said.

    Looking ahead to when the storm passes and travel to Houston is declared safe, it comes as no surprise that inbound rates are expected to move higher, DAT said. That will include completing delayed shipments, as well as the initial shipments of heavy equipment and building materials as the region begins the slow rebuilding process.

    http://fleetowner.com/operations/da...m=email&elq2=2d3754c501db45009216848bc6c43567
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Chop Near Unchanged
    By: Chris Mullen
    Gold traded mostly higher in Asia before it dropped down to $1305.30 at about 8:30AM EST and then bounced back higher into midday, but it still ended with a loss of 0.05%. Silver slipped to as low as $17.315 and ended with a gain of 0.23%.
     
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    Harvey’s Impact Riles Global Fuel Markets

    August 30, 2017 by Bloomberg


    [​IMG]
    Photo: Andres Virviescas / Shutterstock.com


    By Erwin Seba HOUSTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) – Tropical Storm Harvey inflicted more damage on the heart of the U.S. energy industry on Wednesday, churning into Louisiana after flooding the biggest U.S. refinery in Texas, causing fuel shortages and high gasoline prices that could dog the country for weeks.

    Refinery damage from Harvey has already driven gasoline futures prices up 18 percent over the past week and prices at the pump are rising too, particularly in the U.S. South. And more refineries could close now that Harvey has made landfall in Louisiana, where refiners can produce 3.3 million barrels per day.

    The Gulf accounts for nearly half of total U.S. refining capacity. As the United States is the world’s largest net exporter of refined petroleum products, effects of the disaster are starting to ripple through global flows.

    Traders in Europe and Asia were working to reroute cargoes to the United States and Latin America to fill the gap left by refining and shipping closures in the Gulf.

    Major U.S. pipelines carrying gasoline and diesel fuel to Midwest and East Coast markets have been either throttled back or shut due to reduced supply. This has hit wholesalers. The premium for Chicago-area gasoline above benchmark futures is at the highest since June 2016, while the Gulf Coast price is at its widest above futures since August 2012.

    New York Harbor prices spiked as well, as the Colonial Pipeline Co, the key artery serving the East Coast, said lack of supply will continue to slow its entire system.

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said it has expanded fuel waivers for gasoline throughout the U.S. Southeast.

    About 4.4 million barrels of U.S. refining capacity have been shut by Harvey, based on company reports and Reuters estimates. That is about 24 percent of U.S. refining capacity and almost equal to the national daily consumption of Japan.

    That includes the biggest U.S. refinery, Motiva’s Port Arthur facility, which can handle more than 600,000 barrels a day. Portions of the refinery were flooded after more than a foot of rain dropped overnight.

    Other Port Arthur refineries also shut overnight, including Total’s plant, where sources familiar with operations said they expected water to recede by the weekend.

    “The refineries shut down as a precaution might be able to restart, the others in a worst-case scenario could take weeks and months to repair,” said Antoine Halff, director of Global Oil Markets at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

    More rain fell on the area in the last 24 hours than any other part of the region since the storm began last week, according to David Roth, meteorologist at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center.

    The coast took a step forward and a step back on Wednesday. Refiners further south on the Texas coast, including Marathon’s Galveston Bay, were beginning restarts, while Citgo’s 425,000 bpd Lake Charles refinery, on the Louisiana coast, in the path of the storm, cut capacity in half.

    Restarts after a storm are especially dangerous for refiners, though the Corpus Christi area received much less rain than the Houston metro area.

    “The continued increase in flooding creates high uncertainty on the amount of damage that U.S. refineries will incur, the pace at which the shutdown will reverse and the magnitude of capacity that will be impaired over the next few months,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.

    They added that they would expect about 10 percent of what is currently offline would stay shut for several months.

    Just last week, refiners pushed output to their highest percentage of capacity since 2005 as gasoline demand hit an all-time weekly record of 9.85 million barrels, according to U.S. Energy Department data on Wednesday.

    Gasoline futures gained 7 percent on Wednesday alone. Refinery shutdowns and fuel shortage worries have also boosted retail fuel prices, particularly in the U.S. South and Southwest.

    Overnight, the AAA said retail gasoline prices were up 6 cents from a week ago at $2.404 per gallon of regular gasoline nationwide. Some states, like Georgia, have seen prices rise as much as 12 cents a gallon.

    In addition, shale production has been sharply curtailed in the Eagle Ford region of Texas due to the storm.

    (Reporting by Erwin Seba; additional reporting by Catherine Ngai, Devika Krishna Kumar, Julia Simon and Jarrett Renshaw, writing by David Gaffen; editing by David Gregorio)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    Filed Under: News Tagged With: hurricane harvey, Tankers

    http://gcaptain.com/harveys-impact-riles-global-fuel-markets/
     
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    TVR [#385] 08-30-2017 END OF DAY REPORT GOLD SILVER STILL HOLDING STRONG BTC ETH LTC BULLISH
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Aug 30, 2017
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    Embracing Cryptos - Bashing Gold - Reload
    The Daily Coin.org



    Published on Aug 30, 2017
    Thanks for watching - please Share, Subscribe, Like

    Please visit our main website - http://thedailycoin.org

    Unfortunately, I had to delete the original upload. Thank you for your patience.
     
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    Global Stocks Rise On Strong Economic Data, Dollar Set To End Streak Of Monthly Declines

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Aug 31, 2017 7:09 AM


    It's groundhog day as S&P futures, European and Asian shares all rise overnight, while the dollar is poised to finally end its streak of monthly losses.

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is finally headed for its first monthly gain since February, supported by renewed focus on better-than-forecast U.S. economic growth with the dollar getting an added boost after a Reuters report that Euro gains are worrying a growing number of ECB policy makers. The DXY is up 1.6% from multiyear low set on Tuesday while US Treasuries yields also rose in muted trading ahead of key core PCE inflation data due shortly Thursday and ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

    Not helping the ECB case for a weaker Euro (and stronger dollar) was the latest Eurozone inflation data, which came in hotter than expected at the headline level, printing at 1.5% for August, above the 1.4% expected, and 1.3% in July, while inflation ex food and energy also came in stronger than the 1.2% expected, printing 1.3% in August, 0.1% higher than July. Core HICP inflation printed at 1.2%, matching the median forecast.


    [​IMG]

    In addition to the ECB "trial balloon", investors rediscovered a taste for a stronger dollar and commodities as upbeat Chinese economic data on Thursday, as well as stronger U.S. economic news, whetted appetite for riskier assets globally, even as tensions over North Korea simmered in the background. As reported overnight, the latest official PMI survey showed Chinese factory growth unexpectedly accelerated in August, confounding forecasts for a slight slowdown. The official PMI firmed to 51.7, from 51.4 in July, even as the service PMI tumbled. That gave a fresh boost to industrial metals, with copper nearing its highest since late 2014 and on track for gains of 7 percent for August.


    [​IMG]

    A big gainer was U.S. gasoline which surged 6% to two-year peaks as flooding and damage from Tropical Storm Harvey shut nearly a quarter of U.S. refinery capacity. Prices are now up more than 20 percent in the past week. Gasoline advanced as Harvey continued to pound the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico coast, home to more than half of the U.S.’s refining capacity.


    [​IMG]

    European share markets opened firmer, despite stronger inflation data and a higher euro, with the Eurostoxx 600 rising 0.8%, after hitting a 6 month low earlier in the week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index followed gains in equity benchmarks from Tokyo to Sydney after U.S. equities advanced for a fourth day. European bourses rallied from the open led by mining and construction stocks, with base metals pushing higher through Asian session and European morning. Retail sector heavily underperforms after weak Carrefour earnings sees stock trade -15.1%. Most European bonds declined.

    Meanwhile, no matter the news, the generic reaction is just to buy anything and everything: “It is almost like we have ended up with a default risk-on, which is in part predicated by the very benign pricing for what central banks do next,” said head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe. “And that is why the inflation numbers now will be important,” especially with energy prices and commodity prices having risen over the last couple of months. “The period where we could have expected favorable inflation numbers (for keeping interest rates low) may have passed.”

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.7 percent, its best level in two weeks, helped by a pullback in the yen. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.1% on the day but was a modest 0.3% firmer for the month. The Topix index rose 0.6 percent at the close in Tokyo, paring its first monthly drop since March. Australia’s S&P/ASX 500 Index added 0.8 percent. The Kospi retreated 0.4 percent. Benchmark indexes dropped 0.6 percent in Hong Kong and fell in Shanghai, led by declines in banking stocks that had recently been surging.

    Emerging market stocks took a breather too. But August has been their eighth straight month of gains and are now up almost 30 percent since the start of the year.

    In addition to the European inflation U.S. core inflation figures, which will be closely watched by traders and the Fed as it looks to push on with its recent run of rate hikes, are also due later.

    The U.S. dollar index rose to 92.929 and away from a 2.5 year low of 91.621 touched on Tuesday. The dollar also bounced to 110.60 yen, off a 4-1/2-month low of 108.25. The euro retreated to $1.1850 from its top of $1.2069, weighed in part by speculation the European Central Bank might start to protest at the currency’s strength. “The ECB meeting is coming up next week and there are rising risks of verbal intervention from Mario Draghi,” said Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos. “Despite this the euro level does not appear particularly extreme and most importantly the ECB has not been driving recent appreciation anyway,” he added. “Verbal rhetoric may cause a correction but is unlikely to be enough to derail euro strength.”

    The currency has risen sharply this year against the dollar as pessimism over the euro bloc has dissipated and its economy has started to gain some traction.

    The bounce in the dollar shaved 0.5 percent off the price of gold to $1,302.50 an ounce, short of Tuesday’s 9-1/2-month high of $1,325.94. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.3 percent to $46.10 a barrel. Gasoline for September advanced for an eighth day, up more than 4.4 percent to $1.9673 a gallon. Earlier the front-month contract touched the highest since July 2015.

    Economic data include jobless claims, July pending home sales, personal income and spending as well as August Chicago PMI. Discount retail store operator Dollar General and Palo Alto Networks are among companies reporting results.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • Euro equities trade higher whereas EUR was relatively unmoved from the release of European
      inflation data
    • Harvey continued to exert influence over the energy space despite being downgraded to a tropical
      depression
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE, Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP and BoE’s Saunders
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,461.00
    • Brent Futures little changed at $50.87/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,307.09
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.07% to 92.95
    Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
    • Trump’s Tax-Cut Bid Hits New Obstacle: Hurricane Harvey’s Costs
    • Trump’s Impatience Emerging as Biggest Threat to Nafta Agreement
    • America’s Jobs Engine Keeps Defying Forecasts for 2017 Slowdown
    • Mobius Says Investors Are Rotating Out of U.S. Stocks Into EM
    • Carrefour Slumps on Warning, Raising Pressure on CEO for Reboot
    • BofA CEO Says He’s Confident Clients Will Pay for Research
    • Euro-Area Inflation Gathers Pace as ECB Weighs Future Stimulus
    • Fox Said to Continue Ion Talks as 5 Sinclair Deals Renewed
    • Southern Is Said to Seek $25 Billion Nuke Plant’s Completion
    • Ctrip Second Quarter Revenue Beats Estimates
    • Costco Aug. Comp. Sales Beat Estimates

    Asia stocks traded mixed as the region mulled over a slew of data releases including varied Chinese PMIs. Nonetheless, ASX 200
    (+0.79%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.72%) were positive as early momentum rolled over from Wall St where tech outperformed and US
    GDP data beat estimates, with Nikkei 225 coat-tailing on the advances in USD/JPY above 110.00. Shanghai Comp. (-0.08%) and
    Hang Seng (-0.44%) traded negative after the PBoC refrained from open market operations, and as participants also digested
    Chinese PMI data in which Official Manufacturing PMI topped estimates but Non-Manufacturing PMI slowed. Finally, 10yr JGBs are lower with demand sapped amid outperformance of Japanese stocks and mixed 2yr auction.

    Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.4). NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.4 (Prev. 54.5)

    Bank of Korea 7-Day Repo Rate (Aug) 1.25% vs. Exp. 1.25% (Prev. 1.25%).


    Top Asian News
    • Don’t Blame the Secretary Over Noble Group Fracas, Says ISDA
    • Jokowi Forms Task Force to Steer Indonesia’s Marquee Investors
    • BOJ Cuts 5-to-10 Year Bond Buy Range by 50b Yen for September
    • India Inflation More Likely to Guide RBI’s Hand, DBS Bank Says
    • China Bonds Feel the Heat Again as PBOC Tightens, Stocks Advance
    • ANA to Sell 140 Billion Yen of Bonds for Buyback, Jet Purchases
    European equities trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.5%) with sentiment continued to be supported in the region despite mixed performance seen overnight in Asia. In terms of sector specifics, material names lead the way higher with prices in China supported by a beat on expectations for Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI. To the downside, energy names lag as prices continue to feel the squeeze from the fallout of Harvey, while consumer staples also linger in the red after French retail heavyweight Carrefour (-12.5%) trade markedly lower following a disappointing outlook. Fixed income markets have once again been hampered by the upside in equities despite an absence of supply from the Eurozone for the rest of the week. More specifically, Bunds have faced selling pressure throughout the session before finding support at the 165.00 handle with further support said to lie below at 164.81. There was no substantial change in bunds after the release of the EU data. US Treasuries tracked risk sentiment, with the belly of the curve underperforming following a couple of strong sections on the back of stellar supply in the area. The long end ended relatively flat. However, concerns over rising North Korean tensions, and risks surrounding the US debt ceiling remain at the forefront of investors’ thought processes. US Sep’17 10y T-note futures settled at 127.02+, down 3+ ticks.

    Top European News
    • German Unemployment Falls as Nation Braces for General Elections
    • Devil in the Detail: Brexit Talks Are Making Little Progress
    • UBS Is Said to Be Leaning Toward Frankfurt for EU Trading Hub
    • Nasdaq Sees Nordic Power Primacy Challenged by German Rival
    • AstraZeneca Made Bid for Daiichi Sankyo Last Yr: Nikkei Business
    • European Mining Stocks Climb After China Steel Mill Gauge Jumps
    In currencies, GBP is modestly lower by around 0.2% as Brexit headwinds keep GBP pressured yet again. This morning saw comments from BoE Hawk, Saunders who continued to outline the case for a rate hike, whilst also downplaying the importance of such action. Today we saw the release of Eurozone inflation which was a beat of 1.5 on the expected 1.4 with previous 1.3%. However, EUR finding some mild support this morning amid cross related buying in EUR/GBP which has broken back above 92.00. NZD downward spiral continues, which has largely been the case since the back-end of July amid recent soft domestic economic data, while uncertainty looms over the general election.

    In commodities, Harvey continued to exert influence over the energy space despite being downgraded to a tropical depression, with RBOB futures rising to a fresh 2-year high after reports that the Colonial Pipeline (the largest refined products pipeline in the US) will shut its main gasoline line today. This pressured WTI crude futures although prices have since recovered, while gold (-0.4%) saw a mini flash crash and briefly slipped below USD 1300/oz before paring the majority of the move in the following minute, with the initial dip in prices attributed to a sudden large sell order.

    Russia produced 10.9mln bpd in Aug, subsequently exceeding their quota, according to IFAX citing sources.

    Looking at the day ahead, the July PCE and personal income and spending data will be the focus, while initial jobless claims, continuing claims, pending home sales and Chicago PMI are also due. Away from the data, China President Xi Jinping will host the 9th BRICS summit.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -37.6%
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 238,000, prior 234,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.95m, prior 1.95m
    • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%; Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%; Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%
    • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
      • PCE Core MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.5%
    • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 58.5, prior 58.9
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 52.8
    • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.5%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Just a quick one from me this morning before passing over to Craig and Jeff. At around 1.55pm on Tuesday James Montgomery John Reid and Edward (Eddie) Fitzwilliam John Reid entered this world weighing c.5lb 13oz (2.635kg) and c.4lb 15oz (2.222kg) respectively. Poor Eddie had his umbilical cord wrapped around him possibly restricting his recent growth so it was good to get them out when we did. They both had blood sugar issues for over 24 hours but with intense feeding and glucose gels have now seemingly stabilised. Fingers crossed all seems well now but they are so small. Trudi is absolutely exhausted after being up for nearly 40 hours at one point and I'm a little tired but difficult to moan when I sneaked 4 hours in here and there. For most of the pregnancy we were going to call them Montgomery and Bartholomew. We finally ruled out the latter because of fears of him being forever associated with Bart Simpson. He's one of my favourite TV characters but we were not sure it was wise to risk Bartholomew being shortened and little Bart having to play up to his name.

    As for Monty. We love that name. However with 2 days to go we tried it out at home to see how it sounded and every time we did Bronte ran in from the other room and demanded a treat. That seemed an untenable situation longer term. So Montgomery is a middle name. So James and Eddie were late bloomers but suit them perfectly. In case you're interested in between my many duties I created a rough video still collage of the boys' first 24 hours. The link to it is on my Bloomberg message header or I'm sure Craig can send it to you. See you in a couple of weeks. Over to Craig and Jeff.

    It’s a bit difficult to compete with that news, but a decent run of macro data in the last 24 hours has proved to be a welcome distraction for markets from the recent geopolitical headlines. We’ll jump into the details further down but in summary higher than expected inflation prints in both Spain and Germany during the morning yesterday were then followed up by a stronger than expected ADP employment report in the US and a larger than expected upward revision to Q2 GDP. Overnight China has also reported a beat in its August manufacturing PMI which has added to the good news.

    Looking ahead to today, macro data should remain front and centre as we’ll get the personal income and spending prints in the US this afternoon along with the Fed’s favored inflation measure in the July PCE data. So this will certainly be worth keeping an eye on given that we’d argue that inflation data and the outcome of the debt ceiling debate have taken over as the two most important considerations for the Fed outlook now. Our US economists expect the core PCE deflator to show a +0.2% mom rise while the market is slightly below that at +0.1% mom. Should our economists’ forecast be correct then the YoY rate should hold at +1.5% and unchanged versus June.

    Over in markets, by the closing bell last night the S&P 500 finished +0.46% which believe it or not is actually the fourth consecutive daily gain for the index and the longest streak since May. President Trump didn’t completely stay out of the headlines after tweeting that “talking is not the answer” in response to the latest North Korea missile test but that appeared to be largely ignored, in part asDefence Secretary Mattis later said “we’re never out of diplomatic solutions”.

    Separately, a headline from rating agency Standard & Poor’s suggesting that a failure to raise the debt limit would likely be more catastrophic than the failure of Lehman appeared punchy at first glance but was also taken with a pinch of salt. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq also finished +1.05% and the Dow +0.12%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.70%) snapped a run of three consecutive days closing in the red. That coincided with the Euro weakening -0.74% which means it is around -1.50% down from the peak level of 1.2070 made on Tuesday.

    Staying with Europe, we thought it would be worth highlighting a couple of reports from DB research yesterday. The first is Mark Wall’s ECB preview in which he runs through his expectations for the ECB meeting on September 7th. In summary Mark is not expecting a policy announcement. A QE exit step is expected in the next few months, but concerns about market overshooting suggests the exit signal could be weak in September. Mark believes the ECB will leave the current rhetoric framework - “confidence, patience, persistence and prudence” - largely intact in September while adding a mild verbal warning that the EUR exchange rate is “important” to growth and inflation. Rather than signal exit in advance, Mark thinks that the ECB strategy will be to wrap the exit decision in dovishness when it is announced in October.

    On a related topic, George Saravelos published a report yesterday morning addressing what might be next for the Euro now that his 1.20 EUR/USD target had been met so soon. He notes the risk of verbal intervention from Draghi at the ECB meeting. However George also notes that despite this the Euro level does not appear particularly extreme and most importantly the ECB has not been driving recent appreciation anyway. ECB verbal rhetoric may cause a correction but is unlikely to be enough to derail Euro strength. George and his team see the risks as still skewed towards the Euro overshooting above 1.20 at some point this year rather than permanently reversing lower.

    Jumping to the latest in Asia now where the highlight has been China’s August manufacturing PMI which was slightly stronger than expected at 51.7 (vs 51.3 expected) and up from 51.4 in July. In the details new orders and business activity rose during the month. The non-manufacturing PMI did however weaken 1.1pts to 53.4. In Japan industrial production has slowed to a still solid +4.7% yoy (vs. +5.2% expected).

    Markets have been a bit more mixed in Asia. Led by a retreat for banks, the Shanghai Comp (-0.65%) and Hang Seng (-0.57%) are both in the red, along with the Kospi (-0.20%). By contrast the Nikkei (+0.75%) and ASX (+0.69%) have firmed. Elsewhere, WTI Oil is flat following a third consecutive decline yesterday as Tropical Storm Harvey has now impacted c.20% of US’s refining capacity, but US gasoline prices continue to surge, up +6.12% this morning and so bringing the cumulative gain to around 20% over the past four days and prices to a fresh two-year high.

    Away from the markets, yesterday Trump spoke in Missouri on his tax plan, warning Congress not to miss a “once in a generation opportunity” to boost the economy with a massive overhaul of the US tax code. However, the speech was more focused on “why” the US tax system needed to change, rather than providing details on “how” it can be change. He did say “Ideally….we would like to bring our business tax rate down to 15%” and that “I am fully committed to working with Congress to get this job done, and I don’t want to be disappointed by Congress”. Elsewhere on the Brexit talks, EU negotiator Barnier said he can’t agree to UK demands to be flexible until he knows what the UK wants, he said “to be flexible you need two points, our point and their point”, and that “we need to know their position and then I can be flexible”.

    Back to that macro data yesterday. In the US, ahead of payrolls on Friday, the ADP employment change for August was higher than expected at 237k (vs 188k), the most since March. In light of this, our US team has raised the estimate for Friday’s official payrolls report by 15k to 200k. Elsewhere, US 2Q GDP was revised higher from 2.6% qoq to 3.0% qoq and stronger than expected (vs 2.7% expected) lifting through-year growth to 2.2% saar. While the stats are backward looking, it is encouraging that the revision has pushed quarterly growth to its highest level since 1Q15 after being driven by firmer estimates of final demand. Within the details, personal consumption was revised up to 3.3% qoq (vs 3.0% expected) and business investment was revised up 1.7pps to 6.9% saar. There were no revisions to the core PCE (+0.9% qoq).

    Over in Germany, inflation data for August was slightly higher than expected at +0.2% mom (vs +0.1% expected), lifting the annual growth rate to +1.8% yoy (vs +1.7% expected). Spain’s HICP also rose +0.2% mom in August, lifting through-year inflation to +2.0% yoy. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s August economic confidence index was better than expected at 111.9 (vs 111.3), which is the highest reading since July 2007. Confidence firmed across the industrial and service sectors in August, while the final reading for consumer confidence was in line at -1.5. Back to the UK, the BOE July mortgage approvals was slightly higher than expecte d at 68.7k (vs 65.5k), to be the strongest reading since March last year. Elsewhere, the credit lending was modestly softer than expected, with net consumer credit at 1.2bln (vs 1.5bln) and net lending on dwellings at 3.6bln (vs 3.8bln).

    Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s July retail sales will be out in early morning (+2.9% yoy expected). Then we have the July unemployment rate for the Eurozone (9.1% expected) and Italy, along with the August unemployment change stats for Germany. Thereafter inflation data for the Eurozone (+1.2% yoy at the core), Italy and France are also due. Over in the US, as mentioned earlier the July PCE and personal income and spending data will be the focus, while initial jobless claims, continuing claims, pending home sales and Chicago PMI are also due. Away from the data, China President Xi Jinping will host the 9th BRICS summit.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...c-data-dollar-set-end-streak-monthly-declines
     
  23. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: August 31

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Aug 31, 2017 8:11 AM

    • Katrina Survivors Relive Nightmare (WSJ)
    • Harvey drenches Louisiana, sparks blast at Texas chemical plant (Reuters)
    • Immigration crackdown could slow rebuilding efforts (Reuters)
    • Kushners’ China Deal Flop Was Part of Much Bigger Hunt for Cash (BBG)
    • U.S. bombers drill over Korean peninsula after latest North Korea launch (Reuters)
    • Britain, Japan discuss possible new U.N. resolution against North Korea (Reuters)
    • Trump’s Impatience Emerging as Biggest Threat to Nafta Deal (BBG)
    • NAFTA nations plan talks progress under barrage of Trump threats (Reuters)
    • Markets Are About to Find Out What China's Leadership Reshuffle Means (BBG)
    • Southeast Asian Stocks Post Longest Winning Streak in Five Years (BBG)
    • Iraqi PM Abadi declares victory over Islamic State in Tal Afar (Reuters)
    • Harvey Ripples Through U.S., Global Energy Markets as Record Flooding Strains Trade (WSJ)
    • EU’s Top Negotiator Says Brexit Talks Have Not Made ‘Sufficient Progress’ (BBG)
    • GE's new CEO preparing job cuts in bid to reduce costs (Reuters)
    • Disney Considers 10% Cost Cuts in ABC TV Unit (BBG)
    • After Years of Struggle, Cadillac Finds Its Sweet Spot: China (WSJ)
    • Americans Now Buy More Compact SUVs Than Family Sedans (BBG)
    • Islamic State evacuation convoy will cross to Deir al-Zor: alliance commander (Reuters)
    • U.S. oil prices set for worst month in over a year as floods hit demand (Reuters)
    • Manafort’s Overseas Work Involved a Russian Oligarch (WSJ)
    • Rules Relax, Rates Rise and Some New Banks Start Up in the U.S. (BBG)
    • Philippine lawmakers concerned about big jump in drug-war budget (Reuters)
    • Singapore Wins Qantas Stopovers After Airline Dumps Dubai (BBG)


    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The Food and Drug Administration approved a first-of-its kind cancer therapy aimed at bolstering a patient's own immune cells, while the drugmaker behind the treatment attempted to allay worry over the high cost of the procedure. on.wsj.com/2el0w9f

    - Walt Disney Co is preparing significant budget cuts at its Disney/ABC Television Group that will include staff reductions and restructurings, people familiar with the matter said. on.wsj.com/2el00Iy

    - Uber Technologies Inc's new chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, said he would start on Tuesday and aim for an initial public offering as soon as 2019, setting the stage for what would be one of the most highly anticipated market debuts in memory. on.wsj.com/2el0a2C

    - Toyota Motor Corp said Wednesday it plans to dive deeper into the ride-hailing business by teaming up with Singapore-based startup Grab Inc. on.wsj.com/2el0gr0

    - The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said Wednesday that it has sued Estee Lauder Companies Inc accusing the beauty giant of violating federal law when it awarded male employees fewer weeks of parental leave than female workers receive. on.wsj.com/2el1oLf

    - David Madden, who has been Twenty-First Century Fox Inc's president of entertainment for the past three years, is leaving. He will be succeeded by Michael Thorn, a senior development executive at Twentieth Century Fox Television, the sister production company that makes shows for Fox and other networks. on.wsj.com/2el1Hpi

    FT

    * British Prime Minister Theresa May said she wanted to continue as Britain’s leader beyond the next parliamentary election, not due until 2022, dismissing expectations she could stand down after Brexit as early as 2019.

    * Uber Technologies Inc’s new Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi told employees on Wednesday the ride-services company would change its culture and may go public in 18 to 36 months.

    * Britain’s Co-operative Group is in exclusive talks to buy Nisa, entering the fray days after larger rival Sainsbury’s suspended its own bid talks for the wholesale group.

    NYT

    - The Food and Drug Administration approved the first-ever treatment that genetically alters a patient's own cells to fight cancer, a milestone that is expected to transform treatment in the coming years. nyti.ms/2eGM0JP

    - As a brutal storm continues to pound the Gulf Coast, tens of thousands of homeowners are turning to the government for help in repairing and rebuilding. Much of the aid they receive will require taking on debt; an unpleasant surprise to those who may lack the income to pay it back. nyti.ms/2wKhnxg

    - David Tang, the founder of Shanghai Tang, a global chain of flashy emporiums of Chinese-inspired clothing, accessories and home furnishings, and a prominent writer and raconteur in Hong Kong and Britain, died on Tuesday in London. He was 63. nyti.ms/2wkcOsi

    - Travis Kalanick, the former chief executive of Uber technologies Inc, won a preliminary victory on Wednesday in his nasty legal clash with the venture capital firm trying to oust him from the ride-hailing company's board when a judge ruled that the dispute should be moved to arbitration for now. nyti.ms/2eGQoIx

    - David Madden, the outgoing entertainment president of Fox Broadcasting, will be replaced by Michael Thorn, a development executive at Twenty-First Century Fox Inc in-house TV studio, the network said. The move may have opened the door for AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc to claim a new programming chief of its own. nyti.ms/2xOhqor

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Sears Canada Inc's executive chairman is scrambling to put together a last-minute takeover proposal for the company as a court-imposed deadline looms on Thursday for bids to buy the insolvent retailer. (tgam.ca/2vuF2So)

    The Mexican government is warning it will walk away from the renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to trigger a withdrawal from the pact as a way of pressuring Mexico and Canada into concessions. (tgam.ca/2vLSb4V)

    Passengers who were trapped aboard two Air Transat jets on the Ottawa tarmac earlier this summer described hours on end of sweltering heat, a lack of water and the stench of vomit in the cabin as a federal agency began hearings Wednesday into their ordeal. (tgam.ca/2vM3RER)

    NATIONAL POST

    The National Energy Board is expected to announce the details of hearings to narrow down the route of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, even as construction is set to start in September in segments where regulatory requirements have been met. (bit.ly/2vMJ7gc)

    The economic impact of Hurricane Harvey's destruction has been limited on Eastern Canada so far, but the fallout from the storm is expected to affect oil markets for months. (bit.ly/2vM0zl7)

    Britain

    The Times

    * An energy price cap for two million of the most vulnerable households will be fast-tracked into place by January, under Ofgem plans to be unveiled within weeks. bit.ly/2vu418p

    * The tax authorities are chasing large businesses for 24.8 billion pounds ($32.03 billion) of potential underpayments, 3 billion pounds more than last year, as they step up efforts to close loopholes and stamp out avoidance. Investigations by the large business directorate at HM Revenue & Customs (HRMC) have identified the sum as tax that might be recovered from previous years. bit.ly/2vtOW6U

    The Guardian

    - The alleged mastermind behind a series of cyber-attacks on Lloyds and Barclays banks that disrupted up to 20 million accounts has been extradited from Germany to face charges in the UK. The British man, Daniel Kaye, 29, is accused of attempting to blackmail the banks after using an infected network of computers known as the Mirai#14 botnet. bit.ly/2eGz7za

    - Mike Ashley, the billionaire owner of Newcastle United, is moving from the pub to the golf course in his latest high court dispute with a former business partner . bit.ly/2eGwAFh

    The Telegraph

    - Britain's slowdown could have run its course as business lending is rising, mortgage lending growing at a steady pace and the boom in consumer credit, appears to be moderating, according to figures from Bank of England. bit.ly/2eGA9v2

    - Dunelm delivered a shock to shareholders after abruptly parting ways with chief executive John Browett following what is understood to be a clash of leadership styles. bit.ly/2eGz7iK

    Sky News

    - Royal Mail is to be relegated from the FTSE 100 nearly four years after its controversial privatisation. Shares in the delivery business have fallen more than 15 percent so far this year as it faces a cocktail of headaches including declining letter volumes and rumblings of industrial action. bit.ly/2eGxt0G

    - The Co-op Group has moved into pole position to swoop on Nisa Retail, trumping its rival J Sainsbury in an accelerating battle to consolidate Britain's convenience store market. The board of Nisa Retail has granted a period of exclusivity to the Co-op to negotiate a takeover of the member-owned business. bit.ly/2eGyB4n

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-31/frontrunning-august-31
     
  24. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 8.31.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/08/opening-bell-8-31-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 08/31
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/08/links-83117.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 08/31
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: August 31, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/08/morning-news-august-31-2017.html

    TRB - Hot Links: We’re Living in the Dash 08/31
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/08/31/hot-links-were-living-in-the-dash/

    RR - The Laws of Supply and Demand and Marijuana 08/31
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-31/the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-and-marijuana

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Sleepy Week For Wall Street 08/31
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103249-wall-street-breakfast-sleepy-week-wall-street

    MtM - US Core PCE Deflator may Challenge the Greenback's Firmer Tone
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/08/us-core-pce-deflator-may-challange.html
     
  25. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Asian Metals Market Update: August-31-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    August has been one of the best months for metals. Volatility was higher. Industrial metals zoomed and have the best month in the past few years. The big question is whether August’s trend will continue in September for industrial metals and gold. Copper, gold and nickel are testing key long term resistances. August trend will be there for them only on a break of key long term resistances. US economic data releases in August portray a robust economy. In my view interest rates should be hiked by the Federal Reserve at least once more this year. The Federal Reserve meeting in September will be relevant only if they signal the time frame for the next interest rate hike.
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  27. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Democratic Senator Urges Trump To Sell Oil In Strategic Reserves
    By Zainab Calcuttawala - Aug 30, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT

    Federal officials should release fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent gas prices from rising in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, Democratic Senator Edward Markey from Massachusetts told President Donald Trump in a letter on Wednesday.

    “An immediate release of gasoline or crude oil, if also warranted, from the SPR would help protect consumers from price spikes at the pump and tame any market speculation that could be unduly affecting markets and harming consumers,” Markey wrote, according to The Hill.

    The SPR was previously used in 2005, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and Harvey has been quite detrimental to oil production in the Gulf. Approximately 18.5 percent of production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in and 13 refineries, which total to 20.9 percent of American refining capacity, remain closed. Currently, the reserve holds 678.9 million barrels of oil.

    Full article here: http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...oilpricecom+(Oil+Price.com+Daily+News+Update)
     
  28. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Senator McCain’s Latest Jones Act Repeal Effort Unlikely to Progress – Holland & Knight

    August 30, 2017 by gCaptain

    [​IMG]
    File photo: Krista Kennell / Shutterstock.com

    Senator John McCain’s latest attempt to repeal the Jones Act seems to be dead in the water and will likely not pass either the Senate or House, according to attorneys at Holland & Knight.

    Senator McCain introduced the legislation in July, known as the Open America’s Waters Act of 2017, just days before he underwent surgery to remove an aggressive brain tumor above his left eye.

    But according to Holland & Knight transportation attorneys Eric Lee and Michael Cavanaugh, the legislation calling for a full repeal the Jones Act is not likely to progress any further.

    “McCain’s latest legislation appears to be a broad repeal of U.S. law restricting transport of merchandise between U.S. ports and offshore sites to U.S coastwise vessels,” write Lee and Cavanaugh in a co-authored alert published by Holland & Knight. However, like McCain’s prior attempts to strike down the Jones Act, the new McCain campaign seems “unlikely to pass either the Senate or House, or to lead to other legislation or policy changes,” the authors write.

    The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, aka the Jones Act, requires that all goods shipped between ports in the United States be transported on American-built ships that are owned and operated by Americans.

    The latest attempt by McCain is now his fourth effort to eliminate or sharply pare back Jones Act cabotage restrictions in the past eight years. He first introduced legislation for a full repeal the Jones Act in 2010. Later, in 2015 and 2016, he introduced legislation that was more narrowly focussed on eliminating the U.S.-build requirement of the Jones Act.

    McCain has vowed for a full repeal of the Jones Act, describing it as “antiquated law” that hinders free trade and raises prices for American consumers, despite tough opposition from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

    “Like his prior attempts, the new McCain campaign seems unlikely to gather sufficient support to pass either the Senate or House, or to stir much debate leading to other legislation or policy changes,” according to Lee and Cavanaugh. “Legislation protecting U.S. ship operators and shipyards from foreign competition in U.S. inland and coastal domestic trading markets dates from the first few U.S. Congresses during the late 18th century. Despite strong support from much of corporate America and traditional Republican interests, including the oil majors and Heritage Foundation, and continuous pressure from U.S. jurisdictions heavily reliant upon ocean shipping trade with other states – such as Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico – historical efforts to reduce the scope of the Jones Act materially have failed outright or been heavily diluted. The current political landscape is no more favorable. Weakening the Jones Act in any way would appear to run directly counter to the protectionist themes of the Trump Administration.

    Filed Under: News Tagged With: john mccain, Jones Act, jones act repeal

    http://gcaptain.com/senator-mccains...l-effort-unlikely-to-progress-holland-knight/
     
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    TVR [#386] #386 08-31-2017 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN PRECIOUS METALS CRYPTOS RALLY
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    Published on Aug 31, 2017
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    'Worst' energy crisis US has seen in decades: Storm-damaged main pipeline carrying 58.8million gallons of fuel from Texas to the East Coast a day shuts down as international traders rush to reroute fuel to America
    • The Colonial Pipeline Co said temporarily shut down its main line on Wednesday
    • The company connects the refineries of the Gulf Coast to the populous East Coast and transports more than 3million barrels of fuel every day
    • The main line carries gasoline from the Gulf Coast to as far as North Carolina
    • Tropical Storm Harvey has forced the closure of a quarter of US refining capacity


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4839390/Main-fuel-pipeline-shuts-amid-Harvey.html#ixzz4rLFiO0GS
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    Wells Fargo says staff created 3.5MILLION fake accounts without customers' permission to meet sales targets
    • Wells Fargo said on Thursday that 3.5 million accounts were potentially opened without customers' permission between 2009 and 2016
    • Bank admitted it was 2.1million more phony accounts than first thought
    • The bank had said that employees opened accounts that customers might not have been aware of to meet aggressive sales targets
    • About half a million of the newly discovered accounts were missed during the original review, which covered the years 2011 to 2015
    • Scandal cost then-CEO John Stumpf his job, and the bank's once-sterling industry reputation was in tatters
    • Company ended up paying $185 million to regulators and settled a class-action suit for $142 million
    • Wells Fargo will refund $2.8 million to customers, in addition to the $3.3 million it already agreed to pay


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4840394/Wells-Fargo-says-3-5-million-impacted-sales-scandal.html#ixzz4rLzCW4Xi
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    'Weird' Things Happening In Gold, Expert Sounds the Alarm | Kitco News
    Kitco NEWS



    Published on Aug 31, 2017
    Two unusual stories are unfolding for gold — one strange and the other truly weird, this according to bestselling author Jim Rickards. "These stories explain why gold is not just money but is the most politicized form of money," Rickards, the author of Currency Wars said on Wednesday. "They show that while politicians publicly disparage gold, they quietly pay close attention to it," Rickards said. The first strange gold story involves Germany and its repatriation of its gold from New York and Paris, Rickards explained how this move was much more political than anything. The second weird event for Rickards is Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin's visit to Fort Knox. After Mnuchin tweeted that all $200 billion dollars worth of gold is still there, Rickards said a few red flags went up for him. "Mnuchin is only the third Treasury secretary in history ever to visit Fort Knox and this was the first official visit from Washington, D.C., since 1974. The U.S. government likes to ignore gold and not draw attention to it. So why an impromptu visit by Mnuchin."

    Don’t forget to sign up for Kitco News’ Weekly Roundup – comes out every Friday to recap the hottest stories & videos of the week: https://connect.kitco.com/subscriptio...
     
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    TVR [#387] 08-31-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: GBTC ON FIRE BTSC DEAD NVDA 200
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    All Eyes On August Payrolls, As Global Stocks Rise In Bullish September Start; Yuan Surge Continues

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 1, 2017 6:53 AM



    With payrolls looming (our full preview is here), carbon-based traders around the globe are leery of putting on any major trades and so the overnight session has been rather dull, dominated by the now traditional overnight algo-mediated levitation, which means the VIX is lower and S&P futures are once again modest higher as European and Asian shares continue their ascent.

    “A decent payrolls number today would be the icing on the cake in a week that has seen some positive signs that the U.S. economy may be in better shape than was previously thought prior to Jackson Hole,” analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets writes in note. “Annual hourly wage growth is currently 2.5%, a little on the weak side for an economy supposedly at full employment, so a strong number here could increase the odds of another rate rise this year, most likely in December.”

    While we have penned a longer preview of today's jobs report, the only chart that may matter for today's payrolls print, expected at 180K, is the following from Morgan Stanley, which predicted the July print to the dot, and which anticipates a big miss in the August jobs number, at 136K vs the 180K expected (see full preview here).


    [​IMG]


    The Stocks Europe 600 Index is higher for a third day, the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%, starting off September with solid gains - after three months of strong Euro-driven declines - with media companies among the winners after Vivendi SA sales beat estimates. the final Eurozone August manufacturing PMI printed as expected, and unchanged from the flash print, at 57.4. In a month traditionally reserved for time at the beach, euro- area factories increased output at one of the fastest rates since 2011. U.K. manufacturing expanded at the strongest pace in four months in August, lifted by both export orders and domestic demand. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 56.9 from a revised 55.3 in July, beating the consensus estimate of 55.

    The LME Index of six industrial metals soared to the highest in almost three years, with copper leading the charge following another strong Chinese PMI print overnight (see below). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased 0.9 percent to the highest in more than two weeks.

    [​IMG]


    “European markets and U.S. futures are trading higher ahead of the most-watched economic data on the face of the Earth,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K., said by email. “What traders have priced in very much in the market is that the Fed is going to struggle with respect to any further rate hike for this year.”

    Hawkish comments from ECB’s Nowotny on Friday morning briefly lifted EUR across the board and weighed on bund futures.

    Emerging market stocks were higher after still cheering their eighth straight month of gains as China’s yuan hit a fresh 14-month high and metals markets continued to rally. Industrial bellwether copper was up 0.4 percent at $6,818 a tonne. The LME contract price touched a peak of $6,872 on Thursday, the highest since September 2014.

    Japan’s benchmark bond yield fell below zero percent for the first time since November 16, sliding 1.5bps to -0.005%. The decline was unexpected as earlier in the session the Bank of Japan reduced its purchases of 3-to-5-year govt notes by 30b yen, to 300b yen from 330b yen on August 28 while keeping other maturity buckets unchanged. This marked a third open market purchase reduction in the past month, with cuts in the 5-to-10 year zone previously. Banks quickly jumped on the supply-shortage driven tapering bandwagon and, as Mitsubishi UFJ said "unless the BOJ cuts purchases further, the yield decline will deepen" while Makoto Suzuki, strategist at Okasan Securities, said that "even a further decrease in bond purchases is unlikely to cause a spike in yields."

    [​IMG]

    The drop in 10-year Japanese government bond yield below zero percent paves the way for further cuts in purchases at Bank of Japan’s next relevant market operation, said Akio Kato, general manager of trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. "Without a cut in purchases, yields will fall too low, given that the yield today fell below zero even as the BOJ reduced amount in 3-5 year zone" Kato added. "If the BOJ continues to cut a couple more times this month, annual buying would fall below 60t yen, calling into question the 80t yen annual monetary expansion target" the strategist said, cited by Bloomberg.

    Anyway, back to Asia ex Japan, where with the North Korean crisis forgotten, at least until the next time Kim lobs a handful of missiles over Japan and this time he hits something, South Korea’s won and China’s yuan gained while most other Asia’s emerging currencies were steady ahead of U.S. jobs data and amid holidays in some major Southeast Asian markets. The ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were both supported at the open, but then pared some gains as the financial sector dragged alongside declining yields. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (flat) initially traded positive (Hang Seng pared gains heading into the close) despite a net weekly liquidity drain by the PBoC, as participants cheered better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed a 6-month high and showed New Orders and Exports components advanced at the fastest pace in multiple years. Government bonds were mixed while the MSCI EM Asia Index of shares advanced, supporting risk sentiment.

    “It’s hard to take any significant position before the U.S. jobs data,” Koji Fukaya, CEO at Tokyo-based FPG Securities, told Bloomberg. “The U.S. economy is solid and the Chinese economy has been stabilizing while the stocks are rising. Such a situation supports emerging currencies due to growing exports and portfolio inflows.”

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed following an overnight loss after a weak inflation report and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s comments that a weaker dollar is “somewhat better” for U.S. trade. The yen, the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened even after Caixin China manufacturing PMI for August beat estimates. Speaking of China's "other" PMI indicator, one day after the official manufacturing survey sent commodities surging, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.6 for August, beating expectations of 51.0, and above July's. The New orders sub-index rose by fastest pace
    in more than 3 years and exports rose at the fastest pace in 7 years.

    [​IMG]

    Speaking of China, the onshore yuan headed for a 1.2% gain this week, the biggest advance since at least 2007. The CNY strengthened 0.5% to 6.5595 per dollar after the PBOC strengthened the yuan reference rate 0.15% to 6.5909 to the USD. The average year end forecast is 6.5896, according to 15 traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey, so we are already below it.

    [​IMG]

    While Harvey continues to drift inland, its impact remains. Below is a summary courtesy of Bloomberg of what’s shaping the oil market on Friday:
    • Explorer Pipeline planning to start lines over the weekend as full impact of storm Harvey on crude, product markets continues to play out.
    • Petro-Logistics says OPEC’s August supply fell about 400k b/d. String of U.S. data due later, including nonfarm payrolls.
    • Logjam grows to 29 oil tankers as 11 ports remain closed
    • Total Port Arthur is said facing extended shutdown on power loss
    • Texas storm bucks N.Y. traders with wild gasoline expiry swings
    • NHC issues final advisory on Harvey; losing tropical character
    More worrying is what is coming after Harvey, which as we described yesterday, is Hurricane Irma, which one Weather Channel meteorologist described as having the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen."

    [​IMG]

    Oil traders in particular will be closely following Irma's path, which some models see striking the Gulf of Mexico just two weeks after Harvey left historic damage and devastation in its wake.

    Speaking of oil, crude gave up much of Thursday’s increase, while gasoline remained at an elevated level after Tropical Storm Harvey knocked out a quarter of refining capacity. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2 percent to $46.65 a barrel. Copper gained 0.3 percent to $6,807.50 per metric ton, the highest in almost three years. Gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,318.20 an ounce, the biggest fall in more than a week.

    In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.12 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 0.37 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield increased less than one basis point to 1.034 percent. Japan’s 10-year yield dropped one basis point to -0.001%.

    Friday's econ data include August employment and jobless rate, Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing as well as July construction spending and August auto sales. The second round of negotiations for The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) begins in Mexico City

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European equities kick-off the month on the front-foot as participants await today’s US jobs report
    • FX markets remain tentative ahead of NFP, while energy markets pull-back modestly from yesterday’s gains
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Manufacturing and Baker Hughes
    Market Snapshot:
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.07% to 2,471.75
    • VIX down 1.8%, or -0.21 to 10.38
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 375.52
    • MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 161.18
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.2% to 533.64
    • Nikkei up 0.2% to 19,691.47
    • Topix up 0.1% to 1,619.59
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.06% to 27,953.16
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,367.12
    • Sensex up 0.5% to 31,880.62
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,724.59
    • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,357.69
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.359%
    • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1897
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 1.753%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.55%
    • Brent Futures little-changed at $52.42/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,319.51
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 92.72
    Top Overnight News:
    • Trump Is Said to Weigh Tying Debt Limit Increase to Harvey Aid
    • CEOs Urge Trump to Keep ‘Dreamers’ Program for Immigrants
    • Trump Cuts to Obamacare’s Ads Threaten Law’s Fragile Markets
    • World’s Most Important Chemical Made Rare Commodity by Harvey
    • Boeing Tanker Fuel Hose Scraping Jets Raises Air Force Alarms
    • Billionaire Birla Is Said to Weigh Constellium, Aleris Bids
    • Lululemon FY Adj EPS View Beats Highest Est.
    • PANW 1Q Rev. View Midpoint Beats Est.; Shares Rise 3.1%
    • Russia’s Power Machines Vies With GE for Hungary Contract: RIA
    • Macau Aug. Casino Rev. Rises 20.4% Y/y; Est. 18.5% Rise
    • Coca-Cola Eyes Number Three Spot for India Globally, TOI Says
    • Google Wins Approval of Email Privacy Class Action Settlement
    • Former Goldman Compliance Chief to Advise SEC’s Clayton on MiFID
    • Amazon Is Said to Plan Canada Prime Now Launch This Year: WSJ
    • Southwest Air Rushes to Ensure Fuel Supply Amid Storm Damage
    Asia stocks traded mostly positive after the upbeat tone from Wall St where the Nasdaq printed a fresh record close and sentiment was lifted amid tax reform hopes amid comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Furthermore, the region also welcomed strong Chinese Caixin PMI data, although gains were mild amid the looming key-risk NFP release. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were both supported at the open, but then pared some gains as the financial sector dragged alongside declining yields. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (flat) initially traded positive (Hang Seng pare dgains heading into the close) despite a net weekly liquidity drain by the PBoC, as participants cheered better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed a 6-month high and showed New Orders and Exports components advanced at the fastest pace in multiple years. 10yr JGBs were mildly higher amid a decline in Asia-Pac yields and with the BoJ also present in the market for an amount just shy of JPY 1tln in JGB with maturities ranging up to 10yrs. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.1). (Newswires) New orders sub-index rose by fastest pace in more than 3 years and exports rose at the fastest pace in 7 years. PBoC skipped open markets operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 280bln vs. last week's CNY 330bln drain. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5909 (Prev. 6.6010).

    Top Asian News
    • Modi to Revamp Cabinet to Revive Economy Before Key India Polls
    • Tencent Music Is Said to Seek Pre-IPO Funds at $10 Billion Value
    • Chinese Billionaire Plots Rescue of a Great British Carmaker
    • Caixin China Aug. Manufacturing PMI 51.6; Est. 51
    • Rupee Resilience After India GDP Miss ‘Surprising’: StanChart
    • China Steel Futures Surge to Record as Plant Fire Fuels Gains
    European stocks up for September's first trading day after three consecutive months of losses. CAC 40 boosted by Vivendi shares which confirmed its outlook for the year and stated that its struggling Canal Plus pay TV was showing signs of improvement. Volvo shares also tracking higher after setting new financial targets. ECB's Constancio says Euro Area recovery becoming increasingly robust. ECB's Nowotny says that as long as inflation is low, he does not see the need for higher interest rates. Quiet trading overall with Bunds holding a relatively narrow range this morning. Peripherals performing better relative to core debt with the German-Portuguese spread tightening by some 2.7bps, Italy also narrower by circa 1.5bps.

    Top European News
    • Stalled Brexit Talks Pile Pressure on May to Negotiate Deal
    • U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Accelerates to Four-Month High
    • Ruble Defies August Curse, Sanctions for Monthly Gain: Chart
    • Gemalto Slides; Bryan Garnier Sees Potential for Another Warning
    • Europe Miners Gain; Steel Stocks Remain Volatile: Deutsche Bank
    • Sophos Gains After Palo Alto Said Demand Environment ‘Solid’
    • ECB’s Nowotny Says Japan Shows EU Must Move Fast to Repair Banks
    In currencies, the EUR is marginally weaker this morning, largely following from yesterday’s ECB source reports over EUR appreciation, alongside the mild uptick in the greenback. The theme for EUR as we head towards the ECB meeting may well be on speculation that Draghi and Co. may highlight risks to the appreciating currency. As such, EUR could possibly be pressured ahead of the monetary policy decision. Today, there are chunky expiries that may magnetise price action with 2.6bln worth of vanilla options from 1.1870-1.1900. The US Dollar is slightly firmer this morning, ahead of the US job numbers (Exp. 180k), also as tensions between North Korea and the US has seemingly eased off since the beginning of the week. In turn, this has seen USD/JPY break back above 110.00 amid the slight improvement in risk sentiment. Cable received a small uptick from better than expected UK Mfg. PMI which also showed an upward revision. However, sentiment remains bearish for the currency with Brexit talks showing little signs of progress.

    In commodities, it is the same story for crude prices, with flooding at US refineries after Hurricane Harvey continuing to weigh on prices.

    Looking at the day ahead, the final August PMIs for Germany, Eurozone, UK, France and Italy are due this morning. In the US, the highlight is the employment report for August. The August ISM manufacturing print (56.4 expected) is also worth keeping an eye while the July construction spending and University of Michigan confidence isurvey is also due. Away from the data, ECB governing council member Nowotny joins a panel discussion and ECB VP Constancio will speak. Elsewhere, the second round of NAFTA negotiations begins in Mexico City.

    US event calendar
    • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 180,000, prior 209,000
      • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.6%
      • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5%
      • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5; Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 62.9%
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.5, prior 52.5
    • ISM Manufacturing, est. 56.5, prior 56.3
      • ISM Prices Paid, est. 62, prior 62
      • ISM New Orders, est. 60, prior 60.4
      • ISM Employment, prior 55.2
    • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.5, prior 97.6; Current Conditions, est. 110.9, prior 111
      • 10am: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5%
    • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -1.3%
    • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.6m, prior 16.7m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 12.9m, prior 13m
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Well August has flown by in a hurry. It wasn’t quite the typical quiet final month of summer that we might have expected with the headlines out of Washington – namely the debt ceiling debate but also signs of further friction in Trump’s inner circle – and North Korea being enough to keep markets on their toes. In the end though markets are heading into September on the front foot helped in part by some upbeat macro data in the last few days. A slight upside surprise in the July CPI data for the Eurozone yesterday continued the positive momentum, while inflation data in the US later in the afternoon, while far from spectacular, at least came in in-line with market expectations. More details on that later.

    As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end we’re ending the week today with a bit of a bang too. As always payrolls will likely be front and centre. For what it’s worth the market consensus is running at 180k for August following a 209k print in July. Following the decent ADP print on Wednesday (237k vs. 185k expected) our US economists revised up their payrolls estimate to 200k from 185k. They note that the details in the ADP suggest that the Amazon hiring spree proved an upside risk and as such that was the basis for their change in forecast. All that said we have been arguing that inflation and the debt ceiling have arguably taken over as the bigger issues for the Fed outlook right now so while not completely dampening down the importance of payrolls, it feels like the data is not quite as significant as it once was in the past. With that it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the associated wages data in the employment report (+0.2% mom and +2.6% yoy consensus). Later on we’ll also get the August ISMs while this morning we’ll get the final PMI revisions in Europe. So plenty to get through.

    As noted at the top, risk assets generally had a pretty decent final day of August. The S&P 500 closed +0.57% last night and with that took its run of consecutive daily gains to 5 days and the longest streak since the 7-day run in May. That came after the Stoxx 600 had closed +0.77% which means the index has rallied +1.47% in the last two sessions and the most in a month and a half. That move was once again partly helped by an early fall for the Euro which touched the lowest level since Friday, but then reversed and closed +0.22% higher for the day. The early driver appeared to be a Reuters report suggesting that the recent appreciation in the single currency was concerning a growing number of ECB policymakers, which in turn was building the pressure for a more gentle reduction in the pace of QE. Late in the afternoon the reversal came after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said “having a weaker USD is somewhat better for us (as it relates to trade)”. Following on, he also said that the additional spending needed to help Texas may reduce the amount of time Congress have to increase the debt ceiling limit by “a couple of days”. This ties in with reports that Trump is considering attaching an increase in the US debt limit to an initial request to Congress for disaster relief funding of $6bn for Hurricane Harvey.

    Sterling was also a notable mover intraday, but like the Euro also ended slightly up (+0.04%) for the day at 1.2930 after the USD weakened. All the talk yesterday was about more signs of Brexit talks failing to progress with the EU saying the UK has not outlined its position clearly, while the UK hit back by saying that the EU is not being flexible. It appears that the key sticking point is agreeing on the UK’s financial settlement. There is no confirmed figure but the European Commission’s Juncker had suggested before it could be 60bn Euros after factoring in budget commitments, pensions and pledge contingencies. A recent poll by ICM showed 65% of British tax payers believed 20bn was already too much.

    Jumping over to Asia now where the Caixin manufacturing PMI for China in August was slightly stronger than expected at 51.6 (vs. 51.0 expected) and up from 51.1 in July. This confirms the manufacturing PMI earlier this week. While we’re with China, it’s worth noting a date in your diaries as later in the year on 18th October, 2,300 delegates will meet in Beijing for the 19th Communist Party Congress meeting where the focus will be on potential changes to leadership posts and a party report that will set out the key government policy for the next five years.

    This morning markets are for the most part flat to modestly firmer. The Hang Seng (+0.31%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%) and ASX (+0.15%) are all up while the Kospi and Nikkei are flat.

    Moving onto yesterday’s macro data. With regards to that inflation data in the US, while the July core PCE was in line at +0.1% mom and +1.4% yoy, the annual rate is now the lowest since December 2015 and well below the Fed’s target of 2%. Elsewhere, the personal income data was solid. Personal income grew faster than expected at +0.4% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) but personal spending missed slightly at +0.3% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). Elsewhere initial jobless claims remained low at 236k and continuing claims at 1,942k. Meanwhile the Chicago PMI was higher than expected at 58.9 (vs. 58.5 expected) although flat versus last month, while pending home sales disappointed with a -0.8% mom decline (vs. +0.3% expected).

    Over in Europe, the Eurozone’s headline inflation was a tad higher, driven by energy costs, but core inflation was in line at +1.2% yoy, which is above the lows of recent years but unlikely to be enough to prompt the ECB to alter course. Elsewhere, the inflation print for France was in line at +0.6% mom while Italy’s inflation was slightly higher than expected at +0.1% mom (vs. 0.0% expected). Elsewhere the unemployment rate for the Eurozone was in line at 9.1% yoy. Finally, Germany’s July retail sales remained volatile and was slightly lower than expected at -1.2% mom (vs. -0.6% expected).

    Looking at the day ahead, the final August PMIs for Germany, Eurozone, UK, France and Italy are due this morning. In the US, needless to say the highlight is the aforementioned employment report for August. The August ISM manufacturing print (56.4 expected) is also worth keeping an eye while the July construction spending and University of Michigan confidence isurvey is also due. Away from the data, ECB governing council member Nowotny joins a panel discussion and ECB VP Constancio will speak. Elsewhere, the second round of NAFTA negotiations begins in Mexico City.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ls-global-stocks-rise-bullish-start-september
     
  38. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 1

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 1, 2017 8:09 AM

    • August Jobs Report Expected to Show a Slowdown in Hiring (WSJ)
    • Emotions Swell as Houston Begins Cleanup (WSJ)
    • Fuel shortages to hamper Labor Day travel (Reuters)
    • Harvey’s Made the World’s Most Important Chemical a Rare Commodity (BBG)
    • Economists Consistently Overestimate U.S. August Payrolls (BBG)
    • New Jersey Senator Menendez's graft trial could sway D.C. power balance (Reuters)
    • Harvey Relief Bill Could Help Congress Raise Debt Ceiling (WSJ)
    • Russia-Linked Bots Hone Online Attack Plans for 2018 U.S. Vote (BBG)
    • Britain faces huge costs to avoid power shortages with electric car plan (Reuters)
    • Trump Lawyers Say Probe of Comey Firing Shouldn’t Target President (WSJ)
    • Job Satisfaction Highest in a Decade Ahead of Jobs Data (WSJ)
    • Ex-JPMorgan Trader Spots a MiFID Gift for His Brokerage (BBG)
    • Russia Private-Bank Experiment Just Imploded (BBG)
    • Oil Firms That Cheered Regulatory Rollback Are Quaking Over Nafta (BBG)
    • Lululemon Gets Lift From Men’s Business, Product Investments (WSJ)
    • In North Carolina county, strong support for Confederate statue (Reuters)
    • The Death of Stocks Has Been Exaggerated (BBG)
    • Trump Trade Upside-Down in S&P 500 as Drugmakers Overtake Banks (BBG)
    • White House Cutting Ads, Grants Aimed at Encouraging ACA Sign-ups (WSJ)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The chief executive Tenet Healthcare Corp, one of the nation's largest for-profit hospital chains, will resign by early next year as the company deals with investor pushback over its corporate strategy and recent board defections. on.wsj.com/2wrjza9

    - Insys Therapeutics Inc's legal woes worsened Thursday when the state of Arizona filed a lawsuit claiming the company improperly marketed a powerful opioid painkiller. on.wsj.com/2ws9VnU

    - Wyoming can't sue Volkswagen AG for environmental damage allegedly caused by the company's polluting diesel vehicles, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled Thursday, finding the penalties resulting from actions brought by consumers and federal authorities are enough. on.wsj.com/2wrxMUD

    - Vanguard Group, one of the world's largest asset managers, voted against Wells Fargo & Co non-executive chairman Stephen W. Sanger and two other directors this year, according to new regulatory filings. on.wsj.com/2wrGjal

    - The National Labor Relations Board filed a complaint Thursday against Tesla Inc based on allegations of unfair labor practices from workers at the company's Fremont, California, factory. on.wsj.com/2wrvEfJ

    - Amazon.com Inc is working on plans to roll out its one- and two-hour membership delivery service into Canada later this year, a move that marks a broader push into the country by the Seattle-based retailer, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2wrGYZn

    - Dong Energy A/S, Denmark's majority state-owned energy company, is selling off its last oil and natural-gas fields in a deal expected to close by the end of September. The billion-dollar-plus sale is part of a broader plan to significantly reduce the company's exposure to fossil fuels and produce energy primarily from renewable sources. on.wsj.com/2wrDdms

    FT

    * Britain’s exit negotiations with the European Union this week failed to make the kind of progress needed to open talks on their future relationship in October, the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on Thursday.

    * Volkswagen is offering drivers in Britain up to 7,000 pounds to scrap their old diesel cars for newer models hours after rival Toyota unveiled a similar scheme.

    * French President Emmanuel Macron’s government announced reforms to loosen labour regulations and drive down unemployment, drawing criticism from unions but limited support for the street protests that have hindered previous reform bids.

    NYT

    - Nearly a year after Wells Fargo & Co's fraudulent account scandal burst into public view, the bank said it had turned up more than a million additional accounts that customers may not have authorized. nyti.ms/2wrkiIt

    - Toshiba Corp, the embattled Japanese conglomerate, said on Thursday it needed more time to choose an outside investor for its microchip business, extending a period of uncertainty for the company as it seeks a multibillion-dollar cash infusion to stabilize its finances. nyti.ms/2gv3zjT

    - The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States on Thursday jumped 5 cents from the day before, to $2.45, the highest price of the year, according to the AAA motor club. Contracts for September wholesale deliveries rose 25.5 cents a gallon, signaling that the worst is yet to come. Experts said prices at the pump could easily rise an additional 30 cents a gallon. nyti.ms/2wWqdbK

    - Thirteen of The Village Voice's 17 union workers were laid off and were told they would no longer have jobs after the third week of September, a union representative said. nyti.ms/2iKsVe7

    Britain

    The Times

    - Petrofac Ltd's chief executive Ayman Asfari made more than 300,000 euros ($357,210.00) by betting on a share price fall at a rival oil services company after its boss tipped him off about his imminent resignation, financial regulators in Italy have said. bit.ly/2xBzSS4

    - Interest rates need to increase in order to offset the rapid rise in inflation, a member of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee has warned. bit.ly/2xBeBbn

    The Guardian

    - The British gambling industry's income has ballooned in size over the past decade, according to figures from the Gambling Commission. bit.ly/2xBdNDi

    - Ryanair Holdings PLC has stepped up warnings that flights between UK and Europe are imperilled by Brexit, with the airline's Chief Executive Michael O'Leary claiming that the prospect of disrupting aviation was one of the quickest and best ways for the EU27 to "stick it to the British". bit.ly/2xAX1UG

    The Telegraph

    - Britain's second largest energy supplier, SSE Plc has steadily grown the profits it makes from supplying energy to households for a third year in a row despite mounting political pressure to keep bills low. bit.ly/2xBpDxg

    - Philip Green has threatened Labour MP Frank Field with legal action over allegations made in a radio interview last week, as tensions between the pair escalated. bit.ly/2xAYme5

    Sky News

    - The chief executive of New Look Group Ltd Anders Kristiansen is to step down just over two years after his turnaround of the high street fashion chain paved the way for its 2 billion pound ($2.59 billion) sale. bit.ly/2xBJmgc

    - Boots UK Ltd issued a legal warning to a pregnancy charity over its public campaign for more affordable emergency contraception, it has emerged. bit.ly/2xB5XcR

    The Independent

    - Six new banks have joined UBS Group AG -led effort to create a digital cash system that would allow financial markets to make payments and settle transactions quickly via blockchain technology. ind.pn/2xAYTNc

    - The amount of money flowing into cash ISAs has fallen dramatically in the most recent financial year, as consumers have been put off by low interest rates and a change in taxes. ind.pn/2xBqHkr

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-01/frontrunning-september-1
     
  39. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Holiday Bell: 9.1.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/holiday-bell-9-1-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/01
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-9117.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/01
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 1, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-1-2017.html

    CWS Market Review – September 1, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/cws-market-review-september-1-2017.html

    RR - Active Managers, New Farmers and Brain Damage 09/01
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-01/active-managers-new-farmers-and-brain-damage

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Investors Ready For Jobs Report 09/01
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103556-wall-street-breakfast-investors-ready-jobs-report

    TCS - Major Asset Classes | August 2017 | Performance Review 09/01
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-august-2017-performance-review/

    MtM - Manufacturing PMIs, US Jobs, and Implications of Harvey 09/01
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/manufacturing-pmis-us-jobs-and.html

    MtM - Poor Jobs Data Pressures Dollar, Unsourced ECB Comment Brings it Back 09/01
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/poor-jobs-data-pressures-dollar.html
     
  40. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-01-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Unlike August, September may not be an easy month to trade and invest. In the first half, US budgetary issues, pre FOMC speculation and political risk will drive financial markets. After the FOMC meet, early movers will start betting on global interest rate hikes for 2018, the US economic health till the first quarter of next year, and the UK exit from Eurozone news. As long as Trump remains the president of the USA, gold, silver and bitcoins will trade with an overall bullish direction. Winners will be there who are able to correctly judge the pace of rise and pace of fall. Overall the past few months, I am hearing calls for a sharp correction in US stock markets. I have yet to see one.

    Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%
    By: GoldCore
    – All four precious metals outperform markets in August
    – Gold posts best month since January, up nearly 4%
    – Gold reaches highest price since US election, climbs due to uncertainty and safe haven demand
    – SPX 500 marginally higher; Euro Stoxx, Nikkei lower for month
    – Platinum is best performing metal climbing over 5%
     

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