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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    The Daily Economist - Gold, Bitcoin and a Government Shutdown (01/20/2018)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Published on Jan 21, 2018
    Economic, financial, and geo-political discussion on important events that are shaping our world, and your wallet. - http://www.thedailyeconomist.com/

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    farm talk sunday the 21st
    Ag Talk In The Raw



    Published on Jan 21, 2018
    i am here to talk about farming and all that goes with it.
     
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    Tanker With Russian Gas Still Set for Boston Despite Overnight U-Turn Mid-Atlantic

    January 21, 2018 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    Photo: MarineTraffic.com / Manuel Hernandez

    By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Mathew Carr (Bloomberg) — The liquefied natural gas tanker headed to the U.S. with a controversial cargo is due to resume its journey after making a U-turn in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean last night.

    The vessel named Gaselys was set to land at a terminal outside Boston on Saturday and changed its course to delay the date of its arrival, according Engie SA, the French utility that owns the cargo.

    The ship turned east last night and listed its destination as Algeciras near Gibraltar, and that entry still remains on a ship-tracking database compiled by Bloomberg.

    “The final destination of the cargo did not change,” Damien de Gaulejac, a spokesman for Engie, said by email. “It is still Everett, but the date of delivery has been adjusted, in particular for weather reasons.”

    The vessel is carrying a cargo from storage tanks at a terminal near London, which earlier received the first fuel from the $27 billion Yamal LNG plant in Russia’s icy north. It’s a closely-watched shipment because some of the gas came from the project that’s under financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. in 2014 after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine’s Crimea.

    The shipment was arranged during a polar cold snap that gripped the U.S. northeast earlier this month, sending prices to records.

    Engie’s North American unit bought the spot cargo for delivery to the U.S. from Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. to supplement its contracted volumes from Trinidad and Tobago into its Everett terminal near Boston, it said last week.

    The Yamal LNG project, co-owned by Russia’s Novatek PJSC, Total SA, China Natural Petroleum Corp. and China’s Silk Road Fund, started production in December despite U.S. financial sanctions imposed in 2014 because of Russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. It plans to deliver 14 spot cargoes by April, when long-term contracts kick in.

    © 2018 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/tanker-russian-gas-still-set-boston-weather-delay/
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Editorial: Oil’s Rout Is Over, Hail the Return of $100 Crude! Maybe

    January 21, 2018 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]


    By Julian Lee (Bloomberg Gadfly) — After three years of gloom, the number 100 is finally starting to resurface in the forecasts of market analysts.

    A slump in new production outside the U.S. shale patch in 2019 could help to send Brent crude briefly back above $100 a barrel next year, according to London-based consultancy Energy Aspects.

    The International Energy Agency also has a 100 number in its latest outlook, published Friday. While it doesn’t forecast prices and doesn’t yet look as far ahead as 2019, it sees global demand exceeding 100 million barrels a day for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year.

    Oil’s slump is over — hail the return of triple-digit crude! Well, maybe, briefly.

    OPEC ministers and friends meeting in Doha today to assess their output deal would be wise not to get too carried away.

    The IEA, as I noted last week, is much less bullish about demand growth in the coming months than other pundits. For some, this raises the risk that the world’s most-watched forecast significantly underestimates oil use and, as a result, the speed of oil market rebalancing and the upward pressure on prices.

    Broad-based economic recovery is setting the world up for demand growth of 1.7 million barrels a day in 2018, and there’s a chance that it could be as high as 2 million barrels, according to Energy Aspects. Certainly there’s a lot of expansion about — the World Bank has raised its global GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.1 percent from the 2.9 percent it projected in June. With strong economic momentum in almost every country and region, there is “no real drag on oil demand growth,” Energy Aspects said Jan. 15.

    But there could be one in the works. Rising prices can have a chilling effect on demand growth, and benchmark crude prices have risen more than 55 percent since their rally started in June. End-user retail prices are feeling this.

    U.S. gasoline and diesel are both the most expensive they have been at this time of year since 2014 and, in contrast to the normal seasonal pattern, pump prices are already rising. The same is true in Europe.

    Strong demand growth in the developed countries of North America and Europe in the first half of 2017 was “largely attributable to lower prices,” the IEA says. Drivers are unlikely to benefit from similar price moves this year.

    What happens to car owners in rich nations isn’t the only source of strain on demand. Many developing countries took the opportunity of the sharp fall in prices to reduce subsidies on oil products, which could amplify the impact of higher crude on what end users pay.

    And some less-developed countries are shifting to natural gas from oil. The IEA sees 540,000 barrels a day of demand for gasoil, fuel oil and crude displaced by gas in five non-OECD countries since 2014. Saudi Arabia has also cut its direct crude use for power generation by around 100,000 barrels a day in the past two years. The displacement theme will continue this year.

    The draw on global stockpiles should resume in the second quarter, even amid rising OPEC output, according to Energy Aspects.

    The IEA also sees a big rise in oil production this year, including “explosive growth” in the U.S. With the pickup in non-OPEC supply exceeding the increase in demand, it sees the world’s need for OPEC production falling by around 600,000 barrels a day compared with last year, to a level below last month’s output. The implication of that for prices is clear — if the IEA is right, the possibility that oil reaches $100 a barrel is remote.

    Higher prices may yet clip the wings of the oil demand growth that OPEC and friends need. They should not let the sweet smell of the success they have had so far go to their heads in Doha.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

    © 2018 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/editorial-oils-rout-hail-return-100-crude-maybe/
     
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    MACRO ANALYTICS - 01-22-18 - 2018: Year of Accelerating Social Change - Part III
    GordonTLong



    Published on Jan 22, 2018
    VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up

    Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add the following message to each video, which many have already seen to help all of those that haven’t learned of the new update. Thank you again for your support!

    To all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long subscribers: YouTube recently made an update that can cause you not to receive notifications when a new video is published, even if you previously subscribed to this channel to receive updates. If you would like to continue to receive notifications when we upload new videos, please do the following: click on the Subscribe button, click the
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  8. searcher

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    farm talk spending money
    Ag Talk In The Raw



    Published on Jan 22, 2018
    i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
     
  9. searcher

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    Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/22/2018 - 07:02



    Global stocks and U.S. bond markets on Monday shrugged off day three of the US government shutdown in Washington, although the dollar pulled back as the euro continued its strong start to the year, while U.S. stock index futures dipped less than 0.1% on expectations that the political impasse will not hurt the U.S. economy and that it will be resolved shortly, which may prove to be an overly optimistic outlook.

    [​IMG]

    Here is Bloomberg's quick on what has been a particularly quiet overnight session:

    Exceptionally quiet European session due to lack of pertinent economic data or macro events, focus remains on U.S. government shutdown. USD is offered against G-10, DXY remains firmly within 90-91 range established last week. ZAR outperforms after reports that ANC leadership decided Zuma must leave office, albeit without a deadline. Core European equity markets trade flat, energy sector leads gains despite crude futures also trading unchanged, OPEC+ weekend meeting ended with recommendation to keep cuts for whole of 2018. UST curve holds overnight flattening, focus on long-end swap spreads which tighten back from blowout on Friday; Spain outperforms other EGBs after Fitch upgrade. Metals markets grind marginally higher across the board due to move in USD

    U.S. Treasury yields, which fell during previous government shutdowns, rose as investors saw limited economic fallout from the standoff in the U.S. capital and instead focused on a global economy motoring ahead. The 10Y yield rose to to its highest level in more than three years on Monday, although it since faded some of the move.

    [​IMG]

    Bunds were steady after weakening with Treasuries on Friday as USD swap spreads snapped wider. Spanish bonds jumped after Fitch upgraded Spain late on Friday: Spanish 10y bond yields open lower by 5bps at 1.39% after Fitch upgrades Spain to A- from BBB+; though flows have been very low so far, traders told Bloomberg. Strategists were split on the timing of the upgrade with many looking for the move later in the year. While there are no direct index implications, there was some expectation that an upgrade to A status would prompt fresh demand for Spanish bonds from more conservative funds. Most other euro zone bond yields were little changed - analysts said investors were probably moving to the sidelines before the European Central Bank’s first meeting of 2018 this Thursday.

    Back to the US shutdown, where analysts appeared unimpressed: "These things have no near-term or midterm economic impact whatsoever,” said Michael Purves, chief global strategist and head of derivatives strategy for Weeden & Co in New York. "They are kind of embarrassing for the United States, but it’s not really going to alter business or consumer confidence," he said.

    "We’re not worried as we have been here before. Perhaps this is more fractious and may take longer to resolve, but it shouldn’t have a massive economic impact,” said Patrick O‘Donnell, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

    And yet, as we explained on Saturday , the biggest reason why the market's optimism may prove problematic, is should the shutdown stretch into late February or early March when the "X-date" for the US debt ceiling approaches, and put the US in danger of a technical default. This is how Pantehon's Ian Shepherdson put it this morning:

    In the worst case scenario, the budget impasse could drag on, via a series of stopgap measures, until March, perilously close to the point where the debt ceiling has to raised or suspended, as was the case from November 2016 through March last year. We would be astonished if Congress could not cobble together a majority of the sane in order to prevent a default. But astonishment has been quite common in response to events over the past couple of years, so investors would be well-advised to rule out nothing, however outlandish

    For now, however, there is hope that a deal may be cobbled as soon as non on Monday: late on Sunday US Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the intention is to resolve immigration as quick as possible and declared the next Senate procedural vote will be held Monday at 12 ET vs. initial expectations of a 0100EST vote, while US Senate Minority Leader Schumer said they have yet to reach an agreement on a path forward. In related news, US Republican Senator Flake noted that a bipartisan meeting is to be held 1000EST to discuss continuing resolution, while US Senator Cornyn had earlier stated he was now more optimistic after leaving a GOP leaders’ meeting.

    All of this remains lost on US equity futures however, which as noted above are barely in the red this morning, while major markets around the globe are mixed, with some happy to peek in the green. Wall Street, which had been resilient to the threat of a shutdown, rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record closing highs despite the imminent shutdown. Investors shrugged off the threat last week, saying they were not worried about a major pullback in shares if U.S. lawmakers failed to strike a deal. Eventually, stocks may have no choice but to sell if a compromise deal is to be "pushed" upon Congress.

    Around the world, trader apathy was tangible. European shares traded with little clear direction as markets focused on a flurry of mergers and acquisitions and progress towards an end to political deadlock in Germany. Europe's STOXX 600 index was largely flat while Germany's DAX was down 0.1%, France's CAC-40 was down 0.2% and the UK's FTSE was unchanged. The MSCI world equity index was also flat. U.S. stock futures were down marginally after Wall Street set record highs on Friday.

    In Asia, Australia's ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (flat) were subdued as the US shutdown sapped investor sentiment, although downside was limited amid some hopes on resolving the impasse. Chinese markets were choppy in which the Shanghai Comp (Unch.) was flat and Hang Seng (-0.1%) initially stalled after it recently hit record levels, but was later underpinned amid outperformance in Shenzhen stocks. China’s ChiNext Index of small-cap and tech shares climbed as investors went bargain-hunting following gauge’s drop to a five-month low last week.

    Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite a cautious tone in stocks, as participants were sidelined amid an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs and as the BoJ kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting.

    Of note, the People’s Bank of China injected cash into financial system via open-market operations for the eighth straight session, the longest run since November 2016. Onshore market. PBOC pumps in net 20b yuan through reverse-repurchase operations, taking total injections since Jan. 11 to 820b yuan. The onshore yuan little changed at 6.4030 per dollar as of 6:08pm in Shanghai, while the PBOC strengthens daily reference rate by 0.09% to 6.4112.

    In macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained in defensive mode amid a government shutdown and a rebound in Treasuries. The euro held modest gains and bunds steadied as Germany took a step toward a coalition government. The pound found leveraged demand after the London open while EMFX and equities traded mixed. The EURUSD gained 0.2 percent and was trading at $1.2253, although volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate was more muted than would have been expected, given flare-ups during previous U.S. government shutdowns.

    “The market is accustomed with what is taking place in U.S. politics. It is not reading too far into the shutdown, which is more like a political show,” said Koji Fukaya, president of FPG Securities in Tokyo.

    As reported yesterday, on Sunday Germany’s SPD voted in favor (362 for, 279 against) of formal coalition discussions with German Chancellor Merkel’s conservatives. There were also comments from SPD leader Schulz who said that coalition talks are going to be just as hard as the exploratory talks and that he hopes negotiations will start soon. As a reminder, the Euro Area will today begin their search for Vitor Constancio’s successor as ECB Vice President; Spain’s economy minister de Guindos has been touted as a likely successor.

    Elsewhere, reports stated that US President Trump's anger towards UK PM May puts a post-Brexit trade deal between the 2 nations at risk, and that the relationship is said to have soured. Meanwhile, cable got a boost after French President Macron said UK could get a special trade deal with EU post-Brexit, but will not have full access to the single market without accepting its rules, while he added the UK cannot cherry-pick the elements it liked.

    Oil prices climbed higher after comments from Saudi Arabia that cooperation between oil producers who are withholding supplies would continue beyond 2018. Brent crude futures were at $68.67 a barrel at 0930 GMT, not far from the $70.37 level hit on Jan. 15. That was oil’s highest level since December 2014.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • USD softens in reaction to US government shutdown, while EUR finds support from German politics.
    • Equity failing to find any firm direction, with major indices somewhat mixed.
    • Today’s calendar sees a lack of tier 1 highlights.
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.09% to 2,808.50
    • STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 400.87
    • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 183.98
    • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.3% to 600.48
    • Nikkei up 0.03% to 23,816.33
    • Topix up 0.1% to 1,891.92
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 32,393.41
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,501.36
    • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,799.18
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,991.91
    • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,502.11
    • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $68.71/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,332.70
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 90.47
    • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.574%
    • Euro up 0.2% to $1.2251
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.694%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.421%

    Top Overnight News
    • Lawmakers failed to negotiate an end to the government shutdown Sunday despite a bipartisan effort to broker a deal, raising the political stakes as federal agencies begin closing at the start of their normal workweek
    • German Chancellor Angela Merkel moved forward in her bid to form a fourth-term government after her prospective coalition partner agreed to shelve its misgivings and enter negotiations on a common policy platform for Germany
    • OPEC and Russia reaffirmed that they’ll persevere with oil-production cuts until the end of the year to clear a global glut and signaled their readiness to cooperate beyond that
    • Greece is nearing a key milestone in its financial-crisis history, as it moves a step closer toward the exit from its rescue program; its creditors are set to start discussing better repayment terms for its bailout loans as euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels today

    Asia markets traded with a cautious tone as the region reacted to the US government shutdown, which heads into a 3rd day after the Senate failed to pass the spending bill through procedural vote on Friday, but are currently working on a shorter 3-week continuing resolution. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (flat) were subdued as the US shutdown sapped investor sentiment, although downside was limited amid some hopes on resolving the impasse. Chinese markets were choppy in which the Shanghai Comp (Unch.) was flat and Hang Seng (-0.1%) initially stalled after it recently hit record levels, but was later underpinned amid outperformance in Shenzhen stocks. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite a cautious tone in stocks, as participants were sidelined amid an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated JGBs and as the BoJ kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting. PBoC injected CNY 60bln via 7-day, CNY 40bln via 14-day and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.4112 (Prev. 6.4169)

    Top Asian News
    • Hedge Fund Startups in Asia See Signs of Revival After Slow 2017
    • Fresh Doubts Raised on China’s Bad-Loan Data as Fraud Uncovered
    • Templeton’s $38b Bond Fund Builds U.S. Stake in Tilt From EM
    • India’s Nifty 50 Futures Roll Is Cheap Days Before Expiration
    • Cedar Who? When Obscure Chinese Buyers Pounce on Famous Targets
    European equities have kicked the week off with little in the way of firm direction (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) with traders awaiting today’s procedural vote in the Senate at 1700GMT as the government shutdown continues. In terms of sector specifics, energy names outperform given the moves seen in oil markets, telecoms are also seen higher following positive comments from the Deutsche Telekom CEO (+1.6%). Elsewhere, other notable movers include, UBS (-2.5%) who trade lower in the wake of their earnings with markets overlooking their buyback and restructuring efforts. Further to this, Ocado (+12.7%) tops the Stoxx 600 after striking an international deal with Sobeys of Canada, William Hill (-12.9%) lags the Stoxx 600 after stake reductions on UK gambling machines. Finally, YOOX Net-a-Porter (+25%) are seen markedly higher after reports that Richemont are to offer EUR 38/shr for the Co.

    Top European News
    • Battle to Save United Europe Looms and Line Is Drawn at The Alps
    • Italy’s Election Promises Heap Strain on Debt-Loaded Nation
    • Greece Set to Enter Next Bailout Phase as Day-After Talks Near
    • OPEC, Russia Signal Global Oil Alliance May Endure Past 2018
    • Dixons Carphone Names Alex Baldock CEO to Replace James

    In FX markets, GBP is firmer across the board as French President Macron suggests that the UK may be able to secure a ‘special’ Brexit deal, albeit with conditions in terms of retaining access to the single EU market. Cable is eyeing the 1.3900 level again and EUR/GBP is drifting back towards 0.8800 despite some Eur positive news via Germany’s SPD voting in favour of starting talks to form a grand coalition with Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance. The latter has underpinned EUR/USD firmly above the 1.2200 level that has formed solid support bar a brief knee-jerk below (1.2165 last week’s low) on pull-backs from 1.2325 peaks, and ahead of a key Fib retracement at 1.2143. Thursday’s ECB policy meeting will likely be the next main (independent) driver, although for the Dollar all eyes are on tonight’s Senate vote on White House funding (12.00EST/17.00GMT). In the run up, the DXY is holding near 90.500 within a 90.700-155 range, with the Greenback softer vs all G10 peers to varying degrees. USD/CHF is back down around 0.9600, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD have both rebounded to test big figure pivots at 0.8000 and 0.7300 respectively. USD/JPY relatively flat between broad 110.50-111.00 parameters ahead of the culmination of January’s BoJ policy meeting (Tuesday) with decent buy orders seen at the range base and offers at the top. USD/CAD hovering near the bottom of its 1.2465-1.2515 range as NAFTA talks continue. Note, no large option expiry strikes running off today close to current market levels. The ANC in South Africa has moved to eject President Zuma as Ramaphosa steps up his fraud purge.

    In the commodities complex, WTI crude futures saw marginal overnight gains after the OPEC/Non-OPEC JMMC meeting on Sunday in which producers reaffirmed they will proceed with oil cuts as planned and signalled willingness for cooperation beyond 2018. Elsewhere, gold has been choppy amid similar price action in the greenback and copper attempted to nurse some of last week’s losses, although the recovery was capped by a cautious risk tone and resistance at the USD 3.20/lb level. OPEC and Russia reaffirmed they will continue with oil-production cuts until year-end and indicated a willingness for cooperation beyond the date as Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih commented that there is consensus among producers to continue their cooperation beyond this year, while UAE’s Oil Minister Mazrouei said UAE wants a proposal for cooperation after 2018.

    What to look out for today: a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with Brexit likely to be the focal point as action on UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation passes to the House of Lords. Also in Europe, finance ministers in the Euro area are due to meet to discuss Greece’s bailout. It’s possible that ministers will also list candidates to replace Constancio’s ECB seat. Datawise, the December Chicago Fed activity index is due. Notable companies reporting earnings include Netflix and UBS.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: U.S. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec., est. 0.22, prior 0.15

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Mrs. Merkel is now a step closer towards forming a fresh coalition with the SPD. On Sunday, 56.4% of SPD delegates voted in favour (362 vs. 279) of pursuing formal talks with Mrs Merkel’s bloc to potentially form the next grand coalition government. Looking ahead, talks could begin as soon as today and if all goes well, it could be complete by early February. The leader of the CSU Party Horst Seehofer noted a new government could be sworn in by the first half of March. This morning, the Euro pared back earlier gains to be up c0.1%.

    Over in the US, the government is in the third day of a partial shutdown and the situation is still evolving. The Senate has been in session over the weekend and a group of centrist Senators have proposed a short term fix which extends government funding till 8th February with assurance that there will be a separate vote on legislations to protect the undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children. Looking ahead, Senator McConnell noted that the Senate will vote again today on the proposed plan. Earlier, President Trump tweeted the potential of a “nuclear option” to resolve the stalemate, which involves changing the rules to pass the proposed bill via the Senate with a slim majority (ie: 51 votes) rather than the required 60 votes. As a reminder, there have been 18 government shutdown over the past 42 years and they have lasted between 1 to 21 days. The median S&P returns was 0% during these shutdowns, with the highest at +3.1% in 2013 and lowest at -4.4% in 1979. So historically it hasn’t tended to interfere with markets too much. This morning, the UST10y yield is down 1.5bp and off Friday's 3.75 year high while the US dollar index is marginally up.

    We’ll recap Friday fully below but it’s worth noting that we’ve now passed the longest period without a 5% pull back in the S&P 500 since we have daily data back to 1928. The 395 days without one pips the 394 days in the late 1990s and the 384 days back in the mid-1960s. So we’re living through a uniquely strong consistent period for performance.

    Moving now to this week’s highlights before we recap Friday. It should be a fairly busy week. Kicking off with central banks, both the BoJ (Tuesday) and ECB (Thursday) should be of some interest for markets. While DB expects no
    change in policy at either meeting (along with consensus), our Japan economists acknowledge that there is some growing belief in markets that the BoJ could fine tune its yield curve control by raising the 10y JGB yield target. Our colleagues however believe that allowing such speculation to run unheeded could compromise the YCC’s sustainability, and any upturn in the yen from the BoJ’s policy normalization expectations could weaken the momentum towards wage hikes just ahead of the Shunto spring wage negotiations. With regards to the ECB, the big focus will be on any potential change to forward guidance. Our European economists expect Draghi to prepare the ground for changes to forward guidance in his press conference by differentiating policy expectations from the policy reaction function within forward guidance. They also expect the recent Euro appreciation to be a talking point.

    Let’s not forget Davos and all those outdoor power chats and big coats on Bloomberg and CNBC TV. The Forum will take place from Tuesday to Friday with President Trump due to deliver a keynote address on the final day, while a further 339 political leaders are due to attend. Staying with politics, Brexit should jump back to the forefront with UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation due to pass to the House of Lords today where it will be scrutinised.

    With regards to economic data this week, the big releases are the January flash European PMIs on Wednesday where the consensus is for a slight decline in both the manufacturing (60.3 from 60.6) and services (56.4 from 56.6) readings, albeit still at lofty levels. The first estimate of Q4 GDP in the US on Friday (+2.9% qoq annualized) is the other headliner. It should also be a fairly busy week for earnings with 80 S&P 500 companies due to report including Netflix (Monday), Johnson & Johnson (Tuesday), Verizon (Tuesday), Ford Motor (Wednesday) and Caterpillar (Thursday). The full day by day week ahead is at the end.

    This morning in Asia, markets are broadly lower. The Nikkei (-0.11%) is edging lower, while the Kospi is down -0.88%, weighed down by tech stocks after the Maeli Business newspaper reported that Apple have asked Korean partners to reduce parts supplies. Elsewhere, Hang Seng and China’s CSI300 is up 0.25% and 0.83% respectively.

    Now recapping market performances from Friday. The S&P rebounded (+0.44%) to fresh record highs with most sectors up and financials benefiting from a Bloomberg report that noted the Fed may loosen the leverage ratio rules on banks. The Dow (+0.21%) and Nasdaq (+0.55%) also increased modestly. European markets were all higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.54%, supported by consumer discretionary and health care stocks. Across the region, the DAX led the gains (+1.15%) to be near its all-time high while the CAC (+0.58%) and FTSE (+0.39%) also advanced. The VIX fell for the first time in six days to 11.27 (-7.8%).

    Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose 3.4bp to 2.660% and to the highest since April 2014, while UST 2y rose 2.1bp to the highest since 2008. Elsewhere, core European bonds were little changed with Bunds and French OATs 10y yields down c0.5bp while Gilts rose 0.8bp. Peripherals outperformed with yields down 3-5bp.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index strengthened 0.08% while the Euro and Sterling softened -0.13% and -0.26% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.91% while OPEC and Russia have reaffirmed they will continue with OPEC production cuts until at least the end of the year. Both Gold and Silver gained c0.4% while other base metals were mixed (Copper -0.60%; Aluminium -0.44%; Zinc +0.58%).

    Away from markets and onto Greece, S&P has upgraded the country’s long term foreign currency debt for the first time in two years, by lifting its rating one notch higher to B with a positive outlook. S&P noted that “Greece’s growth and fiscal outlooks have improved alongside a labour market recovery and a period of relative policy certainty” and the positive outlook reflects “further upside rating potential from the policy and financing environment over the next year”.

    Turning to some of the Brexit headlines over the weekend. French President Macron seems to have softened his position on potentially including UK based financial services firms in a post Brexit trade deal, he noted “…it depends on what you’re ready to put on the table in terms of preconditions” and that “… (the UK) can have some deeper relations…(with us). For instance, we have a deeper relation with Norway than…Canada”. Elsewhere, the Sunday Times noted the former leader of the UK independence party Nigel Farage may set up a new pro-Brexit party and “head back to the front line” if Brexit was not being delivered. Finally, the Express noted 100 UK Conservatives in Parliament will pressure PM May to withhold further payments to the EU until a new free trade deal is signed and demand that Britain leaves Europe’s single market and end the free movement of people from March 2019. So a lot of conflicting headlines around on Brexit.

    Before we take a look at this week’s full calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was lower than expected at 94.4 (vs. 97). Across Europe, Germany’s December PPI was in line at 0.2% mom and 2.3% yoy, while the Euro area’s November trade surplus widened more than expected at €32.5bln (vs. €30.8bln). Elsewhere, the UK’s December retail sales (ex-auto fuel) was below market expectations at 1.3% yoy (vs.2.6%).

    What to look out for today: a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with Brexit likely to be the focal point as action on UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit legislation passes to the House of Lords. Also in Europe, finance ministers in the Euro area are due to meet to discuss Greece’s bailout. It’s possible that ministers will also list candidates to replace Constancio’s ECB seat. Datawise, the December Chicago Fed activity index is due. Notable companies reporting earnings include Netflix and UBS.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-22/global-markets-shrug-us-government-shutdown-enters-day-3
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Ends Slightly Higher
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold waffled between $1335.60 and $1328.60 in Asia before it climbed back up to $1335.50 in late morning New York trade and then fell back under unchanged by early afternoon, but it then jumped back higher into the close and ended with a gain of 0.18%. Silver chopped between $17.095 and $16.945 and ended with a loss of 0.06%.
     
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    Global Shipping Industry Failing to Fill Gender Pay Gap

    January 22, 2018 by The Loadstar

    [​IMG]
    Photo: By Aun Photographer / Shutterstock

    By Alexander Whiteman (The Loadstar) – Ethical and moral standards notwithstanding, companies boasting mixed boards can boast higher profits.

    Sadly, according to a study conducted by HR Consulting, the global shipping sector seems to have failed to recognise the benefit women bring to executive positions.

    A poll of 40 companies within the sector revealed less than 1% had female representatives in executive positions.

    Compensation and benefits consultant Sarah Hutley said African and UK-based companies fared the worse in these statistics, while the US led the way.

    Speaking at last week’s Womens’ International Shipping and Trading Association (WISTA) event, entitled The Gender Pay Gap, Ms Hutley noted: “In the US, some 20% of directors are female, while women also make up around 14% of US-based executive boards.”

    “Conversely, the US lagged behind when it came to the number of women in the overall workforce – with Eastern Europe leading the way in terms of total workforce.”

    Ms Hutley said that in the UK while 39% of the shipping sector workforce is comprised of women, the proportion diminishes with each step up the ladder of seniority.

    She said this was also the case globally – with women holding 34% of a total 22,000 global maritime workers – with only 14% in technical roles and fewer than 1% on executive teams.

    Studies by both KPMG and the Peterson Institute indicate having fewer women on company boards affects profitability, with mixed boards recording 6-19% higher profits.

    And a study conducted by Spinnaker Global – HR Consulting’s parent company – put the figure even higher.

    A sample of 231 companies between 2007 and 2009 suggested EBIT for mixed boards was some 56% up on those with no women at board level.

    Furthermore, a separate study by KPMG on the role of diversity in the gambling sector suggested mobilising women could add an extra $12trn in economic activity by 2025.

    And despite efforts in the UK to reverse the problem with the Equality Act Regulations 2016, the plight of women in the shipping workforce seems to be worsening.

    The act requires companies with 250 or more employees to disclose details of the gender pay gap by April – Ms Hutley noted that with the deadline looming, some 70% are still to do this.

    A study conducted by HR found the mean gap in the hourly rate between men and women to be around 39%, while the median gap was 37% in 2016.

    Last year, the gap widened, with women being paid some 46.4% less than their male counterparts at a mean level, while the median gap was around 45.7%.

    “Had there been an extreme between the mean and median results it would suggest that the higher earners were skewing the results,” said Ms Hutley.

    “But with the mean and median difference so close, it would suggest the extremes had little effect on the overall results.”

    Ms Hutley said this pay distribution illustrates the levels and types of roles women in the workforce tend to undertake, and is responsible for the large pay gap that is reported.

    And while women were found to be nearly just as likely to receive a bonus as men in the industry, the value of this bonus was typically around 68% lower.

    Managing director of HR Consulting Karen Waltham said reducing the pay gap and getting more women into executive positions was “not a female issue, but a business issue”.

    The Loadstar is fast becoming known at the highest levels of logistics and supply chain management as one of the best sources of influential analysis and commentary.

    Check them out at TheLoadstar.co.uk, or find them on Facebook and Twitter.

    http://gcaptain.com/global-shipping-industry-failing-to-fill-gender-pay-gap/
     
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    Port of Savannah Surpasses 4 Million TEU in 2017, Marking New Record

    January 22, 2018 by gCaptain

    [​IMG]
    MV COSCO Development at Port of Savannah in May 2017. Photo credit: Georgia Ports Authority

    The Port of Savannah grew its volumes by more than 400,000 twenty-foot equivalent container units in 2017, for a record total of 4.04 million TEUs.


    The U.S. East Coast port of Savannah handled more than 4 million twenty-foot equivalent container units in 2017, marking an 11% increase compared to 2016 and also the port’s highest annual volume ever.

    “This is the first time we’ve handled more than 4 million TEUs in a 12-month period, which is an important milestone for Savannah,” said Georgia Ports Authority Executive Director Griff Lynch. “These numbers clearly show that Georgia has the fastest growing and most critical port in the Southeast.”

    For the month of December, GPA handled 323,000 TEUs, up 10.6 percent or 31,000 TEUs, for the busiest December in GPA’s history.

    “Savannah is double the size of the next largest port in the region, highlighting Georgia’s growing role as a gateway for American cargo,” Lynch said. “Similarly, there is no deepening project more significant in the nation at this time than the Savannah Harbor Expansion Project.”

    Georgia Governor Nathan Deal released his Fiscal Year 2018 budget proposal last week, allocating $35 million in additional support for the deepening, for a total of $301 million in state funds. Currently, there are three dredges working in the Savannah River. The project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2021.

    “We’d like to thank the governor and General Assembly for their full and complete support of the state share of the project, and we look forward to seeing the federal match with the upcoming release of the President’s budget and the appropriations process,” said GPA Board Chairman Jimmy Allgood. “Our federal delegation to Washington also deserves our appreciation for their tireless work in support of Savannah’s harbor expansion.”

    At the GPA board meeting on Monday, Lynch reported total trade for 2017 reached a record 35 million tons of cargo, an increase of 3.8 million, or 12 percent.

    Intermodal business at Garden City Terminal improved by 18.8 percent in December, reaching nearly 65,000 TEUs moved by rail. The GPA is scheduled to break ground on the Mason Mega Rail terminal in early spring, which will double Garden City Terminal’s rail lift capacity to 1 million containers per year, and is expected to be complete by the end of 2020.

    As part of the Authority’s ongoing effort to expand capacity, the board approved a $3.5 million expenditure to update four of its older ship-to-shore cranes to operate with greater speed and efficiency. In November, the Port of Savannah received four Neopanamax cranes. Another six will arrive in 2020, growing the port’s fleet to 36 cranes, and allowing the port to move nearly 1,300 containers per hour over a single dock.

    The board also heard Monday that container exports outpaced imports in December. Loaded export boxes rose by 13.3 percent, while loaded import containers grew at a rate of 11.2 percent year over year. Of 323,117 TEUs in December cargo, export TEUs accounted for 52 percent of trade for the month, while imports were 48 percent.

    Container tons increased by 310,654 tons to reach 2.48 million in December, an increase of 14.3 percent compared to the same month in 2016. For the year, total container tonnage reached 30.04 million, of which 52.6 percent was export cargo and 47.4 percent import.

    http://gcaptain.com/port-of-savannah-surpasses-4-million-teu-in-2017-marking-new-record/
     
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    Biggest U.S. East Coast Oil Refinery Files for Bankruptcy

    January 22, 2018 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    FILE PHOTO: The Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery owned by The Carlyle Group is seen at sunset in Philadelphia March 26, 2014. Picture taken March 26, 2014. REUTERS/David M. Parrott/File Photo

    By Barbara Powell and Tiffany Kary (Bloomberg) — Philadelphia Energy Solutions LLC, owner of an oil refinery that supplies more than a quarter of the U.S. east coast’s crude refining capacity, filed for bankruptcy with a plan that could allow it to shed some environmental costs.

    The restructuring would allow PES to emerge a new company with the same stakeholders, according to the firm’s chief executive. Court filings show it intends to do so through a sale that will erase $300 million to $350 million of compliance costs. Those expenses helped spur the Chapter 11 filing by PES, which runs the largest oil refinery serving the New York Harbor gasoline and diesel market. It’s a joint venture between Carlyle Group LP and Energy Transfer Partners LP subsidiary Sunoco Inc.

    The compliance costs include “renewable identification numbers” or RINs, which the company was forced to buy under a federal program that has cost $832 million since 2012, the court filing shows. The purchases create an “unpredictable, escalating and unintended compliance burden” that amount to twice the cost of payroll and almost 1-1/2 times capital expenditures, the company said.

    “Absent RINs, we’re competitive with anyone in the world,” Chief Executive Officer Greg Gatta said in telephone interview Monday.

    Biofuel Costs
    Independent U.S. refiners that lack the infrastructure to blend biofuel into gasoline and diesel have been hit hard by surging costs for the credits they must buy to meet Environmental Protection Agency quotas for ethanol and biodiesel. The Trump Administration in late November rejected a bid by fuel-makers including Valero Energy Corp. to relieve refiners of the obligation. Billionaire Carl Icahn, the majority owner of CVR Energy Inc., has complained that the program structure is “rigged.”

    “RINs going forward continue to be an issue for independent merchant refiners,” Gatta said. “We continue to work with the government to find a solution that works for everyone.”

    Under terms of the filing in Delaware late Sunday, PES seeks to sell off assets while leaving behind $300 million to $350 million worth of the compliance liabilities, effectively erasing them. It might also opt not to sell its assets and reorganize on a stand-alone basis. But in that case, the company will have $225 million less in cash and $275 million more in debt, according to court records.

    The PES plan already has support from key lenders, according to court documents. The Chapter 11 filing allows the company to keep operating while it works out a recovery. Assets sale could be subject to competing bids as well court approval, which PES is seeking by Feb. 23.

    Lender Support
    Lenders to two term loans were unanimously in favor of the preliminary plan, according to court filings. On term loan A, $97.5 million in debt including large stakeholders such as Goldman Sachs Lending Partners and PNC Bank National Association voted for the plan. For term loan B, $486 million voted for it, including several funds of Credit Suisse Group AG and Halcyon Capital Management.

    More than $260 million in new funding will be infused, giving current lenders debt or equity in a new company. Term loan B lenders are financing a $120 million bankruptcy operating loan that will convert to an exit loan. A non-bankrupt parent, Philadelphia Energy Solutions LLC, will invest $65 million in exchange for 25 percent of equity in a new company and Sunoco will also put $75 million in new money into the company, court papers show.

    To read more about how the farm lobby beat the oil industry on biofuels, click here.

    Formed in 2012 as a result of a partnership between Carlyle and Sunoco, PES drew government aid and was hailed by state, city and union leaders as it worked to save the plant, which faced shutdown due to dwindling margins. The company was able to ride the back of the U.S. shale boom, building a terminal to take in trainloads of cheap oil from North Dakota that couldn’t be sold elsewhere.

    1,100 Employees
    The end of the U.S. crude export ban in late 2015 and the start of the Dakota Access pipeline last year forced East Coast refiners to turn back to more expensive imports.

    The refinery, a 1,300-acre tract near downtown Philadelphia, will keep operating and there will be no impact on jobs, salaries and benefits of the company’s 1,100 employees. It is operated as two plants — Girard Point and Point Breeze — with a combined processing capacity of 335,000 barrels a day of crude oil. It remains the largest oil refining complex on the U.S. Eastern seaboard.

    The plan brought in PJT Partners Inc. as the company’s investment adviser. Alvarez & Marsal North America LLC is a restructuring adviser and Kirkland & Ellis LLP is legal adviser on the plan, according to court papers.

    The case is PES Holdings LLC, 18-10122, BBLS DD X1Q6NUPPP282 U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware (Delaware.)

    © 2018 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/biggest-u-s-east-coast-oil-refinery-files-bankruptcy/
     
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    Delayed Big Oil Projects Starting to Get Off the Ground

    January 22, 2018 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    Heerema Marine Contractors’ crane vessel Thialf ready to install a steel jacket for the Statoil’s Johan Sverdrup project in the Norwegian North Sea in July 2017. Photo: Statoil

    By Bailey Schulz (Bloomberg) — The global oil industry’s backlog of big drilling projects is starting to shrink as prices improve.

    From production vessels tapping Brazil’s deep-water reserves to pipes connecting rigs to underwater wells in China, the number of ventures delayed since the oil crash that finally got approval to get off the ground totaled 18 last year, according to a report by consultant Rystad Energy. That compares with only five in 2016 and two in 2015.

    That’s a start, but there are still 104 delayed oil and gas projects waiting for investment approval, according to Rystad.

    “The industry has put in a lot of spadework to advance these delayed projects,” Readul Islam, a research analyst at Rystad, said in the report. “With over 100 projects still in our tracker as we enter 2018, the hard work must continue to maintain 2017’s momentum.”

    Among big oil projects that received the go-ahead last year, Brazil’s Petroleo Brasileiro SA, France’s Total SA and their partners approved the next phase of development of the multibillion-barrel Libra field off Rio de Janeiro’s coast. The plan includes adding a floating production, storage and offloading ship, or FPSO, by 2021 and another by 2022.

    But the slow pace of project approvals for larger, higher-risk projects means that discoveries of new reserves in 2017 were the fewest on record and replaced just 11 percent of what was produced, according to previous report by Rystad. This could lead to output deficits as soon as next year.

    The 25 delayed projects approved since the 2014 crash are expected to develop the equivalent of about 16 billion barrels of oil at an estimated cost of $87 billion to first production, Rystad said.

    © 2018 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/delayed-big-oil-projects-starting-get-off-ground/
     
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    Is Silver The KeyTo Gold Highs?
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Jan 22, 2018
     
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    The Bitcoin Psyop
    corbettreport



    Published on Jan 19, 2018
    TRANSCRIPT AND SOURCES: https://www.corbettreport.com/bitcoin...

    Yes, the blockchain is truly revolutionary. Yes, bitcoin is Tulipmania 2.0. Yes, cryptocurrency is a nail in the coffin of the bankster parasites. Yes, digital currency is a tool of the totalitarian tyrants. No, these statements are not contradictory. But don’t worry if you think they are. You’re just a victim of "The Bitcoin Psyop."
     
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    S&P Futures Suddenly Slide Amid Growing Trade War Fears
    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/23/2018 - 07:00


    After earlier tracking the latest daily rally in global equities amid surging investor optimism, rising earnings and a spending bill to end the U.S. government shutdown for now which saw Asian stock hit new all time highs, US futures encountered an unexpected airpocket, with the E-mini sliding as much as 10 points from session highs.

    [​IMG]

    There was no immediate catalyst for the move although the previously noted sharp move lower in the USDJPY, which dropped below 110.40 after trading above 111 following Tuesday's BOJ announcement, may have been a factor behind the move.


    [​IMG]

    Furthermore, as some trading desks point out, this latest risk off move is not unique to USDJPY, with US yields dipping lower, gold popping while S&P futs, which seemed to lead the move, slipped to $2831 at time of print.

    What caused risk sentiment to sour abruptly? It is unclear, but two possible triggers have been discussed: first, Trump announced tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines late Monday. While the sectors are not of huge economic significance, it has since sparked concerns that more protectionist moves could follow. Additionally, a tsunami alert has been issued for entire West Coast of US after a 7.9 magnitude earthquake was recorded in the Gulf of Alaska at 04:31 EST.

    As Bloomberg note, investors will be closely watching how markets respond to Trump’s import tariffs. Any positive impact from his signing of a temporary government spending bill that ended a three-day partial shutdown appears to have faded, perhaps because the deal simply delayed tough decisions for a few weeks

    And while the aftershock from the quake will come and go, concerns about a growing trade war are only just beginning.

    The shockwave from the steep drop in the ES and USDJPY has moved to Europe where the Stoxx 600 is up less than 0.1%, trimming earlier advance of as much as 0.4%, mirroring the US move: European banks erased earlier advance of as much as 0.4%, while miners are worst performers among European sectors following the overnight rout in iron ore. The Stoxx 600 basic-resource index slides 1.8%, most in 2 months and halting a 3-day winning streak, as copper, iron prices drop.

    Earlier, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced an eighth day, helped by stronger oil prices. West Texas crude futures climbed toward $64 a barrel, buoyed by forecasts for a record run of declines in U.S. crude stockpiles.

    As reported earlier, the BoJ kept policy unchanged as expected in which QQE with YCC was maintained and NIRP held at -0.10%. The decision on YCC was made by 8-1 vote with Kataoka the dissenter again and the central bank also extended the deadline for its loan program by 1yr. BoJ commented that inflation is likely to continue increasing to 2% target but risks to prices tilted to the downside and that inflation expectations have been more or less unchanged, while the central bank affirmed all forecasts for Real GDP and Core CPI. BoJ Governor Kuroda says day-to-day JGB buying operations do not indicate future course of monetary policy and is closely watching FX markets.

    As described earlier, the reaction to the BOJ statement sent the USDJPY on a tubulent stop hunt first lower, then higher, and finally lower again.

    In macro and FX, the dollar found early strength from BOJ Governor Kuroda’s comments that policy makers aren’t at a stage to consider reducing monetary stimulus and reversed its Asia session drop. Even though the yen managed to eventually recover its losses, the greenback stayed generally stronger against G-10 in European session before fading to flat as U.S. govt. reopens and administration enacts selected import tariffs.

    USD/JPY whipsaws as dovish Kuroda press conference pushes rate higher through 111.00 before reversing as EUR/JPY is offered through European open. Metals markets particularly weak, as copper forward breaks back below $7000/MT.

    USTs rally and curve flattens, US 10Y yield back below 263bps level. Peripheral EGBs well supported, led by Spain despite expected large 10y syndication.

    The combination of higher prices and the prospect of a more investor-friendly government is making Chile’s mining industry hopeful of a resumption in large projects after years of cost cutting. As a result iron ore futures sank by the most this year while copper declined 1%: it may have much more to drop.

    Scheduled earnings include Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Verizon and Texas Instruments. Economic data include Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey for January.

    Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • US Senate passes stopgap spending bill to reopen the government.
    • Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy instruments, while tweaking language on inflation.
    • Looking ahead, highlights include API crude oil inventories.
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,831.00
    • MSCI Asia Pacific up 1% to 185.73
    • MSCi Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.9% to 605.96
    • Nikkei up 1.3% to 24,124.15
    • Topix up 1% to 1,911.07
    • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 32,930.70
    • Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,546.51
    • Sensex up 0.9% to 36,109.21
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,036.96
    • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,536.60
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 403.33
    • German 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 0.546%
    • Euro down 0.2% to $1.2238
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.0 bps to 1.655%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 1.343%
    • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $69.36/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,336.93
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 90.51
    Top Overnight news
    • Trump signs stopgap funding bill to end government shutdown
    • Global trade: U.S. imposes tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines
    • BOJ: holds all policy as expected; tweaks language to say inflation expectations "have been more or less unchanged," after previously saying they were "weakening"
    • BOJ’s Kuroda: we are not at the point to consider a policy exit; no need to adjust rates because inflation expectations are higher; rinban size adjustments are for operational, not policy, reasons
    • German Jan. ZEW Expectations hits all time high: 20.4 vs 17.7 est; Current Situation 95.2 vs 89.6 est.
    • Earthquake: magnitude 8.0 quake in Gulf of Alaska; Tsunami warning issued for Alaska, a tsunami watch for the U.S. West Coast
    • Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet IMF’s Managing Director Lagarde and EU Commissioner Moscovici in Davos, a Greek govt official says
    • The Irish border issue may resurface sooner than U.K. Prime Minister May imagined. While the agreement was designed to prevent a breakdown in talks, serious questions still need to be resolved, according to people familiar with the EU side of the negotiations
    • Activist investor Bill Ackman is cutting 10 employees after assets overseen by his hedge fund firm shrank, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
    • Spain drew more than 45 billion euros ($55 billion) of investor interest for a new 10-year bond, reflecting growing confidence in the nation’s once-rattled economy and strong demand for euro sovereign debt

    Asia equity markets took impetus from the record levels seen across all major indices on Wall Street and after the US Congress passed the spending bill to end the government shutdown. ASX 200 (+0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.3%) were positive with Australia led higher by the energy sector as it tracked the outperformance of its counterpart stateside, while Nikkei 225 outperformed to reclaim the 24000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were positive with gambling names underpinned in Hong Kong as Wynn Macau shares surged following strong Q4 results from its parent. Conversely, LG Electronics felt the brunt of trade protectionism measures with losses of as much as 5% in early trade after the US imposed a 30% tariff on solar imports to the US and approved safeguard tariff action on imported washing machines. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw mild upside in the latter half of trade, as participants took comfort from an unsurprising BoJ which kept its bond buying intentions stable and eased
    some tapering concerns.

    BoJ kept policy unchanged as expected in which QQE with YCC was maintained and NIRP held at -0.10%. The decision on YCC was made by 8-1 vote with Kataoka the dissenter again and the central bank also extended the deadline for its loan program by 1yr. BoJ commented that inflation is likely to continue increasing to 2% target but risks to prices tilted to the downside and that inflation expectations have been more or less unchanged, while the central bank affirmed all forecasts for Real GDP and Core CPI. BoJ Governor Kuroda says day-to-day JGB buying operations do not indicate future course of monetary policy and is closely watching FX markets.

    Top Asian News
    • Tencent to Back Carrefour China, Challenging Alibaba in Retail
    • World’s Most Overbought Stocks Have Gone 18 Days Without Falling
    • Jakarta Offices Evacuated as 6.1 Magnitude Quake Jolts City
    • India Builder Orbit Aims to End Talks with Bank, Buyers by March
    • Country Garden Cancels 1.8B Yuan Bond Sale on Market Fluctuation

    European equity markets rallied in early trade after US Senators agreed a deal to end the government shutdown on Monday. The DAX opened at a new record high with all major European bourses higher. easyJet led the FTSE 100 higher after a strong trading update while Sky shares rose despite the UK regulator saying that the deal with Fox is not in the public interests. However, the CMA proposed remedies to address the concerns and Sky have said it will review its position.

    Top European News
    • IG Group Jumps; Cryptocurrency ‘A Significant Growth Driver’
    • Allianz Goes Against the Grain to Buy U.K. Government Bonds

    In FX, there was only modest support for the Dollar in wake of the White House funding extension, as Senate approval was only achieved on the proviso that immigration issues will be sorted out by February 8th when the stop-gap bill expires. USD/JPY rebounded above 111.00 with the aid of dovish BoJ policy guidance and tones from the post-meeting press conference, as Governor Kuroda pledged to maintain QQE and YCC until the 2% inflation target is met (forecast by FY 2019/20). However, the headline pair has reversed course with ample supply/offers noted above the figure and currently mid-range ahead of 110.50 support. AUD the worst G10 performer and helping the DXY hold around 90.500 as AUD/USD recoils from 0.8000+ levels towards 0.7950 amidst weaker copper, iron ore and consumer sentiment. Cross flow also undermining the AUD as it slides below 1.0900 vs the NZD and the Kiwi maintains 0.7300+ status against the Greenback. Other major USD rivals all softer, with Cable back in the mid-1.3950 area after a spike to 1.4000 (new post-Brexit vote high amidst reports that a Norway style transition deal has been agreed in principle) – little response to much better than forecast UK public finance data. EUR/USD at the lower end of a 1.2225-75 range, eyeing ZEW next, but really the ECB on Thursday, USD/CHF still firmly above 0.9600 and USD/CAD nudging towards 1.2500 within a 1.2400-1.2600 broad recent range as NAFTA talks resume.

    In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures both traded higher as markets continue to digest the recent information regarding upbeat growth and demand outlook vs. fears of an increase in US shale output as prices remain elevated. Barclays have raised their forecasts for Brent after the strong start to the year but still maintain a bearish view in the quarters ahead. Gold and silver were mostly flat while copper declined around 1% as iron ore fell on the Dalian exchange.

    Looking at the day ahead, world leaders are due to gather for the annual Davos World Economic Forum. Also worth noting is the scheduled sixth round of NAFTA talks in Montreal. Data highlights in Europe on Tuesday include UK public sector net borrowing data for December and CBI selling prices data for January, the German ZEW survey for January and Euro area consumer confidence reading for January. In the US, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index print is due. The Fed’s Evans is due to make introductory remarks at a conference in the evening. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Verizon are due to report earnings.

    US Event Calendar
    • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 18.5, prior 20
    • 10am: Senate Holds Confirmation Hearing for Fed Nominee Goodfriend
    • 6:30pm: Fed’s Evans Makes Introductory Remarks

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Front row seats have been reserved for the BoJ this morning. As was broadly expected, there was no change in policy rates and asset purchases targets. The BOJ noted inflation expectations have been more or less unchanged, which compares to its previous view that inflation expectations were weakening. They’ve also narrowed the range for expected inflation from 1.1-1.6% to 1.3-1.6% for this year. While this may sound a little hawkish, median inflation forecasts were unchanged at 1.4% for 2018. Governor Kuroda will speak at 3:30pm loca time (6:30 am UK time), so we’ll learn more around any fine tuning of the view just before this note hits your inbox. The YEN is up 0.2% as we type.

    Elsewhere in Asia, markets are trading c1% higher. The Nikkei (+1.28%), Kospi (+1.14%), Hang Seng (+1.06%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.54%) are all up as we type. After the US bell, Netflix’s shares were up c8% after signing up c2m more subscribers than market expectations in 4Q.

    Over in the US, the three day partial government shutdown is over for now which helped sentiment towards the end of the US session and in Asia. The Senate (81-18) and then the House have voted (266-150) to extend government funding until 8th February. No formal agreement has been reached on DACA, with Democrats accepting Senator McConnell’s assurance that it is his “intention” to allow a Senate vote on the immigration measure afterwards if a compromise cannot be reached by early February. Elsewhere, House Speaker Paul Ryan has promised House Republicans that they will not be bound by any arrangement reached in the Senate on immigration to reopen the government.

    The agreement helped US bourses climb to fresh highs, and was also supported by announced M&As in the healthcare space. The S&P (+0.81%), Dow (+0.55%) and Nasdaq (+0.98%) were all higher. Within the S&P, all sectors excluding materials and industrials were up, with gains led by the telco, energy and consumer discretionary sectors. European markets were broadly higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.31% to the highest since August 2015. Across the region, the DAX and CAC were both up c0.2%, but the FTSE fell 0.20%. Spain’s IBEX led the gains, closing 1.00% higher.

    Over in government bonds, core bond yields were little changed, with UST 10y down 0.9bp, Bunds broadly flat and Gilts up 2.1bp. Peripherals outperformed with yields down 4-5bp, in part as Fitch upgraded Spain’s sovereign rating one notch higher to A-/Stable. This compares to S&P’s current rating of BBB+ but with a positive outlook. The spread between Spain’s 10y bond and Bunds has narrowed to 82bp, the lowest since April 2010.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dipped 0.22% while the Euro gained 0.33% and Sterling jumped 0.93% to another fresh post Brexit vote high. In commodities, WTI oil was 1.0% higher, partly supported by OPEC and Russia’s reaffirmation that they will continue with OPEC production cuts until at least the end of the year. Elsewhere, precious metals were broadly flat (Gold +0.16%; Silver -0.02%) and other base metals were little changed (Copper -0.04%; Zinc -0.10%; Aluminium +0.48%).

    Also helping sentiment yesterday was news that the IMF has upgraded its forecasts for world economic growth by 0.2ppt to 3.9% for this year and next – the fastest pace in seven years. In the details, about half of the upgrades were due to the US tax cuts, with US GDP growth lifted 0.4ppt higher to 2.7% this year, while the Eurozone is projected to grow 2.2% (+0.3ppt), China to 6.6% (+0.1ppt) and the UK unchanged at 1.5%. Elsewhere, the IMF cautioned that loose financial conditions, rich asset valuations and low bond yields raise the possibility of a market correction and that “a possible trigger is faster than expected increase in advanced economy’s core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates”. Hence, policy makers should take steps to raise potential growth and increase resilience to shocks, such as reforms to lift productivity and proactive financial regulations.

    Yesterday we also saw the latest CSPP numbers. The net CSPP purchases were €1.34bn last week with net PSPP purchases €3.85bn. The CSPP/PSPP ratio was a whopping 34.9% (19.4% last week, 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017 and 12.7% between April and December after first taper). The highest weekly ratio before this week was 20% last May. So this was an abnormally high week for corporate buying even with the usual volatility in numbers. Our view remains the same - that CSPP won’t be tapered much (if at all) and that the ratio will settle at around 20% in H1.

    Elsewhere, President Trump has acted on the recommendations by US trade representatives and has imposed a 30% tariff on imported solar panels for the first year before steadily declining to 15% by the fourth year. Notably, imported residential washing machines will be hit with a 20% tariff on the first 1.2m machines and then up to 50% >1.2m units.

    Turning to Brexit, the latest draft EU directives obtained by Bloomberg seems to be broadly similar to an earlier version sighted by the FT. The draft noted “preserving the integrity of the single market excludes participation based on a sector by sector approach…..there can be no cherry picking”. It also reaffirmed that the UK should continue to comply with the Union trade policy during transition and that British ministers will not be able to enter into agreements with non-EU countries to replace the benefits of those lost trade deals unless authorised to do so by the EU. Elsewhere, a poll commissioned by the UK in a changing landscape showed 56% of UK lawmakers believe it was possible to consider that Britain had “really left the EU” even if the country stayed in the single market, although the result was down from 66% a year earlier.

    Looking at the day ahead, world leaders are due to gather for the annual Davos World Economic Forum. Also worth noting is the scheduled sixth round of NAFTA talks in Montreal. Data highlights in Europe on Tuesday include UK public sector net borrowing data for December and CBI selling prices data for January, the German ZEW survey for January and Euro area consumer confidence reading for January. In the US, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index print is due. The Fed’s Evans is due to make introductory remarks at a conference in the evening. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble and Verizon are due to report earnings.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-23/sp-futures-suddenly-slide-amid-growing-trade-war-fears
     
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    Frontrunning: January 23
    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/23/2018 - 07:44


    • Globalisation is losing its luster, India's Modi tells Davos summit (Reuters)
    • Centrists Outflanked Party Leadership to End Government Shutdown (WSJ)
    • UK regulator rules against Murdoch takeover of Sky (FT); UK Deals a Blow to Fox’s $16 Billion Takeover of Sky (WSJ)
    • Manufacturers Fight Over New Tariffs’ Effect on U.S. Jobs (WSJ)
    • Samsung says U.S. tariffs on washers a great loss for American consumers (Reuters)
    • Here’s What Trump’s Tariffs Are Doing to Markets (BBG)
    • U.S. solar panel import tariff to hit European, Asian manufacturers (Reuters)
    • As Trump Heads to Davos, the Question Is Which Trump Will It Be? (WSJ)
    • Bitcoin May Split 50 Times in 2018 (BBG)
    • The UK has already "agreed in principle" to a Norway-style Brexit transition period (Independent)
    • Tesla Gives Musk New Long-Term Pay Deal (WSJ)
    • Pence Says U.S. Must Play ‘Preeminent’ Role as Peace Broker (BBG)
    • States Grapple With Federal Tax Cut That May Raise State Taxes (WSJ)
    • Goldman Sachs Plans to Reopen Geneva Office (BBG)
    • JPMorgan to raise pay, hire staff in $20 bln investment push (Reuters)
    • Ford Urged to Recall 1.3 Million SUVs Over Exhaust Fume Fears (BBG)
    • As U.S. goes quiet on close naval patrols, China speaks out (Reuters)
    • The World’s Biggest Gold Market Might Start Using Blockchain (BBG)


    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The U.S. Congress approved a measure Monday to fund the government for about three weeks and halt a three-day shutdown, after Senate Democrats accepted GOP leaders' assurance that they would bring an immigration bill to the floor in the coming weeks. on.wsj.com/2BlEEDY

    - Bacardi Ltd is acquiring tequila maker Patron Spirits International AG in a deal that values the premium brand at $5.1 billion, one of the biggest liquor buys in years as rivals scramble to own more top-shelf spirits. on.wsj.com/2n1xO2c

    - President Donald Trump on Monday slapped steep tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines, kicking off his second year in office by showing he is ready to start implementing his long-promised "America First" trade policy. on.wsj.com/2n1XIml

    - News Corp Executive Chairman Rupert Murdoch said if Facebook Inc is serious about promoting "trusted content" and filtering fake news out of its news feed, it should pay publishers fees similar to those cable distributors pay to television channels. on.wsj.com/2mZpH6k

    - Procter & Gamble Co Chief Executive David Taylor on Monday outlined steps the company is taking to keep teens from eating Tide laundry pods for sport, a behavior he called a "dangerous trend" fueled by social media. on.wsj.com/2n19FZk

    - The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday fired a warning shot at companies that try to use gimmicks to capitalize on investors' appetite for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency investments. on.wsj.com/2n43tQx

    FT

    - The U.S. government on Monday announced criminal and civil charges against three former staffers of an audit watchdog, accusing them of providing confidential information to help accounting firm KPMG pass regulatory inspections.

    - A Labour government could eliminate outsourcing of contracts for private companies on violation of any of the seven new guidelines in relation to such matters after the recent collapse of construction outsourcing company Carillion Plc .

    - Euro zone finance ministers welcomed Greek progress in delivering reforms but said on Monday they would only disburse the next tranche of loans once all agreed actions are complete.

    - The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019 saying that sweeping U.S. tax cuts were expected to boost investment in the world’s largest economy and help its main trading partners.

    NYT

    - U.S. President Donald Trump slapped steep tariffs on imports of washing machines and solar energy cells and panels on Monday, the first major step by the administration to erect the kind of trade barriers Trump has frequently said are necessary to protect manufacturers in the United States. nyti.ms/2BjN6nn

    - Five former employees of KPMG and a former government accountant have been charged by federal prosecutors in New York with taking part in a plot to help the big accounting firm get a leg up in a regulatory review of its auditing work. nyti.ms/2G671cR

    - Ando, David Chang's "restaurant without walls," a meal-delivery enterprise that started two years ago, has closed and is being absorbed by Uber Eats, the restaurant delivery app operated by Uber Technologies Inc. nyti.ms/2n21tIs

    - French drug maker Sanofi SA said it had agreed to acquire Bioverativ Inc, a biopharmaceutical company focused on treatments for hemophilia and other rare blood disorders, for $11.6 billion in cash. nyti.ms/2DDbUf0

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL
    ** The Ontario Court of Appeal stressed the importance of fairness for those accused of sexual assault, in a case in which the complainant could not identify her assailant and the DNA evidence was inconclusive – even about whether any assault had happened. tgam.ca/2n2YWha

    ** Former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney will testify before the influential U.S. Senate foreign relations committee next Tuesday about the benefits of the troubled North American free-trade agreement. tgam.ca/2BlLiKo

    ** Prosecutors will likely begin presenting evidence against David Baazov, the Montreal internet gambling entrepreneur charged with insider trading, before the end of this winter after a Quebec Court judge rejected a motion to dismiss the case. tgam.ca/2n3vmbl

    NATIONAL POST
    ** The International Monetary Fund is raising its forecast for Canadian economic growth in 2018 and 2019, as recent tax reforms in the United States are expected to increase demand and give the entire North American economy a boost. bit.ly/2n3fsxP

    ** Rogers Media Inc abandoned its stake in a joint venture with Vice Canada, ending its three-year relationship with the edgy media company to redirect money to content that "better aligns" with its brand. bit.ly/2n60Ptx

    ** Bell Canada and the National Football League want Canada's highest court to overturn the federal broadcast regulator's decision to let Canadians watch big-budget American ads during the Super Bowl. bit.ly/2BnChAt

    Britain

    The Times

    - Bankers are scrambling to attract an $18 billion telecoms flotation to London amid hopes that the deal could generate a bonanza in advisory fees. bit.ly/2n3E3BM

    - The engineering group GKN Plc sought to bolster its defences against a hostile assault by Melrose Industries yesterday by highlighting the growing value of its automotive business on the back of record orders for its electric car technology. bit.ly/2DCJlhM

    The Guardian

    - Business leaders are privately pushing for a new campaign to reverse Brexit as concerns mount about the viability of government plans to prevent a collapse in exports to Europe. bit.ly/2rwxfSr

    - The head of the UK's National Cyber Security Centre has warned that a major cyber-attack on the UK is a matter of "when, not if", raising the prospect of devastating disruption to British elections and critical infrastructure. bit.ly/2DYC4qg

    The Telegraph

    - A major new trade body representing the UK's 130 billion pounds ($181.77 billion) hospitality sector is being proposed in a bid to get the sector's voice better heard by Government. bit.ly/2n0Fm50

    - In the London headquarters of high street bank Lloyds a barrier is being built to physically separate two groups of workers. bit.ly/2n24SqH

    Sky News

    - Tesco Plc has announced plans to "simplify" its operational structures - placing 1,700 roles at risk as it looks to make further savings in the business. bit.ly/2DYyqNh

    - Jaguar Land Rover has announced its intention to trim Range Rover Evoque and Discovery Sport production, citing challenges facing the auto industry, including Brexit. bit.ly/2DvXIFz

    The Independent

    - The UK has already "agreed in principle" to a Norway-style Brexit transition period in which it accepts all EU rules with no power to shape them, a senior figure in Brussels has told The Independent. ind.pn/2BkgxWc

    - Labour has unveiled tougher rules to strip outsourced contracts from "rogue suppliers" following the Carillion Plc scandal, if Jeremy Corbyn wins power. ind.pn/2G8JXKH

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-23/frontrunning-january-23
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: January-23-2018
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Trade war and protectionism across the world should be bullish for gold, silver and other safe havens. US President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, his first major trade move. Chinese solar companies will be the looser. India had also imposed anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar panels. Every nation is following a “protectionism policy” under the garb of unfair global trade practice. Retaliation will be there along with new trade blocks. Gold and safe havens will get the benefit of doubt.
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain With Oil
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold gained $3.80 to $1338.40 in London before it dropped back to $1331.70 by midmorning in New York, but it then extended to as high as $1341.50 in the last hour of trade and ended with a gain of 0.48%. Silver rose to as high as $17.092 and ended with a gain of 0.24%.
     
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    Amazon surrenders data about third-party sellers to Massachusetts after state demanded information so it could collect unpaid sales taxes
    • Amazon said that it was giving information about its merchants to authorities in Massachusetts as part of the state’s effort to collect unpaid taxes
    • The e-commerce giant informed its sellers that it agreed to give the state data including federal tax ID numbers and value of inventory stored in warehouses
    • This is the first time Amazon has acknowledged giving information about its sellers to government officials
    • Amazon’s decision could spell trouble for other third-party sellers who do not collect sales tax in various states as required by law


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5305435/Amazon-surrenders-data-vendors-Massachusetts.html#ixzz556WPqRxe
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Chris Martenson – Rising Oil Price Will Pop this Bubble
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Jan 23, 2018
    What is going to cause this financial bubble to pop? Economic researcher and futurist Chris Martenson says, “The price of oil is likely going to be the pin that pricks these bubbles. No central banker is going to do it. They are deathly afraid of these markets they have created. . . . They are afraid of a downturn in the markets, and they won’t willingly go there. What could force that is the price of oil. . . . The higher price of oil is going to really harm some weak players out there. . . . The chain reaction always starts with somebody not being able to pay their debt back.”

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    All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/wealth-will-g...
     
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    What Pops Bubbles (Including the Everything Bubble)
    Silver Fortune



    Published on Jan 22, 2018
    A look at the past, and what it says about how this bubble, though it is perhaps the largest in history, will likely die the same death as the bubbles of the past 100 years.
     
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    Futures A Sea Of Green As Dollar Bloodbath Accelerates
    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/24/2018 - 07:03


    In what has been a relatively quiet overnight session, equity futures are once again a sea of green, as the stock market meltup continues.

    [​IMG]


    MSCI’s world equity index hit new highs in a continuation of a long running theme but on Wednesday it was a bit more of a mixed picture.

    The biggest news, as noted earlier, is that the dollar losing streak entered its third day and the sell-off accelerated to fresh three year lows, after Steven Mnuchin welcomed its recent weakness amid concerns over an increase in U.S. protectionism, saying its decline provides a boost to the American economy through trade.

    [​IMG]


    "It looks as if U.S. politics are indeed affecting the currency market, especially as they start to affect trade policy,” said Marshall Gittler, chief strategist at ACLS Global, pointing to recently-introduced import tariffs as an example. Trump slapped steep tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels on Monday, giving a boost to Whirlpool Corp and dealing a setback to the renewable energy industry in the first of several potential trade restrictions.

    The dollar weakness also meant the DXY index sank below 90, with the euro and the pound hitting fresh cycle highs. The yen took out resistance at 110 per dollar on momentum selling dropping as low as 109.40, the lowest since September, even as the yield on the 10Y Treasury picked up, rising to a session high of 2.6373% from 2.16131% the day before.

    “We’re looking for the dollar to continue to depreciate against most currencies,” Daniel Morris, an FX strategist with BNP Paribas, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The U.S. economy has a current-account deficit and it needs to close that -- one way to do that is for the dollar to depreciate.”

    While the dollar fell As the euro gained the Stoxx Europe 600 Index initially fell before reversing, while emerging-market equities were little changed after eight days climbing. The FSTE 100 (-0.5%) lags its peers amid a firmer GBP and softness in Sage shares (-5.5%) after a disappointing earnings update. Looking at the sectors, health care names outperform their peers following the latest earnings update from Novartis (+2.4%), to the downside, utility names lag after Suez Environment (-17%) issued a profit warning, IT names are also seen lower with Infineon and STMicroelectronics near the foot of the DAX and CAC respectively.

    Meanwhile, the yen pushed past 110 per dollar for the first time since September due to the weak dollar, and South Africa’s rand traded below 12 per dollar for the first time since May 2015. The greenback’s slide also fed into commodities, with oil in New York holding its ground even amid signs of a possible gain in U.S. crude stockpiles. Bitcoin was trading at around $11,000.

    [​IMG]

    However, it was China were records continued to be broken. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.37% to 3359, a new 2 year high.

    [​IMG]

    The SSE 50 index tracking 50 biggest stocks in Shanghai closed higher for the 19th consecutive day;
    The Chinext index tracking mid- and small-caps surged near 2.6% to recover 1800 mark.

    Meanwhile, the record streak for Chinese stocks in Hong Kong continued. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.08% to 32958, closing at a new record high for the 7th day in a row. The index broke through 33,000 mark at one point, which was the the first time ever. Meanwhile, Hang Seng's China Enterprises index climbed near 1%, higher for the 19th consecutive day.

    [​IMG]

    Also in Asia, Australia's ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) were varied with Japanese exporter sentiment weighed by a firmer currency and following a miss on trade data. Japan’s exports to China and Asia hit record levels as shipments rose for a 13th straight month in December and manufacturing growth hit a four-year high in January, pointing to an economy that powered through the fourth quarter and into 2018.
    • Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Dec) 359.0B vs. Exp. 535.0B (Prev. 112.2B).
    • Japanese Exports YY (Dec) 9.30% vs. Exp. 10.00% (Prev. 16.20%)
    • Japanese Imports YY (Dec) 14.90% vs. Exp. 12.40% (Prev. 17.20%)
    10yr JGBs were range-bound as initial support from a risk averse tone was later pared, while the BoJ were also in the JGB market for between 1yr-10yr maturities with all the amounts of its Rinban operation kept unchanged. PBoC injected CNY 110bln via 7-day, CNY 100bln via 14-day and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.3916

    Over in Europe, French, German composite PMIs beat estimates supported by stronger-than forecast readings for the services sector while manufacturing missed; euro-zone composite PMI jumps to 58.6 from 58.1, exceeding the estimate of 57.9. This is Goldman's take on the latest strong set of European PMIs:

    Today's 0.5pt rise in the flash composite manufacturing PMI reflects a shift in momentum from manufacturing to services. The manufacturing PMI fell 1.0pt to 59.6, but remains in highly expansionary territory. Within the sub-components, manufacturing output fell 0.9pt, new orders fell 2pt and employment fell 0.7pt. The services PMI accelerated, rising 1.0pt to 57.6, its highest level since 2007.

    In France and Germany, the composite PMIs were roughly level, indicating that new momentum in the Euro area PMI lies outside its two largest economies. In Germany, a 1.2pt rise in the services PMI was offset by a 2.1pt decline in the manufacturing PMI (which nonetheless remains above 60.0pt). In France, a more modest decline in the manufacturing PMI (-0.7pt to 58.1) was offset by a small rise in services.

    Investors will now shift attention to Thursday’s ECB meeting. The euro surged to a fresh three-year high of $1.2345 ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, which is in focus following recent commentary that the central bank could change its policy guidance early this year.

    This after the euro zone’s economy outpaced that of the U.S. in 2017 and shows further signs of strength in the New Year. In a strong sign of the positive sentiment towards the region, Spain generated over 40 billion euros of demand in a sale of 10-year government bonds in what is likely one of the largest order books in Europe ever. Indeed, most low-rated “peripheral” euro zone government bond yields are now trading at their lowest level against benchmark German peers in years; another sign of confidence in the region.

    Elsewhere, the British pound powered above $1.41, its highest since the Brexit in June 2016, aided by the weak dollar and optimism around Britain's chances of securing a favorable Brexit deal.

    The dollar’s decline has been a boon to commodities priced in the currency, with gold edging up to $1,341.81 an ounce. Oil prices were consolidating after jumping more than 1 percent on Tuesday when Brent crude hitting $70 a barrel for the first time in a week. Brent futures was off 22 cents at $69.75, still not far off the three-year high of $70.37 reached on Jan. 15, while U.S. crude CLc1 was marginally higher 4 cents to $64.52 a barrel.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,843.75
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 402.21
    • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 186.55
    • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.1% to 608.68
    • Nikkei down 0.8% to 23,940.78
    • Topix down 0.5% to 1,901.23
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.08% to 32,958.69
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,559.47
    • Sensex up 0.05% to 36,156.63
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,054.66
    • Kospi up 0.06% to 2,538.00
    • Brent futures down 0.3% to $69.78/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,348.56
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 89.62
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.58%
    • Euro up 0.4% to $1.2351
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 1.622%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 1.361%

    Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its slide to make a fresh three-year low in early London session after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said a weaker dollar is good for trade; Mnuchin also said he is not “particularly concerned” about the U.S. Treasury market
    • There will be more measures to come, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross tells reporters in Davos, Switzerland, when asked about Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on solar panels and washing machines
    • China has a long history of tit-for-tat retaliation when it comes to trade disputes and may well dust off the same policy playbook in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to slap tariffs on solar panels and washing machines
    • The Nikkei Japan PMI for manufacturers showed a preliminary reading of 54.4 for January, rising to the highest level since February 2014. New orders were at 56.0, while stocks of finished goods shrank, suggesting demand will continue to be strong in the near term
    • French, German composite PMIs beat estimates supported by stronger-than forecast readings for the services sector while manufacturing missed; euro-zone composite PMI jumps to 58.6 from 58.1, exceeding the estimate of 57.9
    • China President Economic Adviser: China to cut vehicle import tariffs; measures to open up the economy may exceed expectations
    • U.K. Nov. Average Weekly Earnings: 2.5% vs 2.5% est; Earnings Ex-bonus 2.4% vs 2.3% est.
    • European Jan P Composite PMIs: France 59.7 vs 59.2 est; Germany 58.8 vs 58.5 est; Eurozone 58.6 vs 57.9 est; Manufacturing below consensus for all three readings, partly reflected weaker growth of new export orders
    • Japan Jan P Manufacturing PMI 54.4 vs 54.0 prev; highest in four years
    • API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude +4.8m; Cushing -3.6m; Gasoline +4.1m; Distillates -1.3m
    Asian equity markets traded mixed following an unconvincing close on Wall Street where all majors posted fresh record highs and the Nasdaq 100 outperformed as Netflix led post-earnings, although DJIA failed to hold onto gains and finished flat. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) were varied with Japanese exporter sentiment weighed by a firmer currency and following a miss on trade data. Elsewhere, a cautious tone was seen in Chinese markets with the Hang Seng (-0.1%) and the Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) choppy alongside early weakness in Shenzhen, as ChiNext heavyweight Leshi Internet & Tech Co. returned from a 9- month trading halt to hit limit down with losses of 10% at the open. Finally, 10yr JGBs were range-bound as initial support from a risk averse tone was later pared, while the BoJ were also in the JGB market for between 1yr-10yr maturities with all the amounts of its Rinban operation kept unchanged. PBoC injected CNY 110bln via 7-day, CNY 100bln via 14-day and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.3916

    Top Asia News
    • Vietnam’s Biggest Stock Bourse Sees Halt Move to Second Day
    • China Pharma Tycoon Said to Mull $500 Million IPO of Clinic Arm
    • Former Chinese Web Star Plunges as Analyst Tips More Declines
    • Top Indian Steelmaker Seeks to Buy Bhushan, Monnet Assets
    • India Ending Curbs Will Allow 10 Foreign Retailers to Set Shop

    European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +3.00 to 3662) trade with little in the way of firm direction in the wake of what was a relatively mixed session during Asia-Pac trade. In terms of outliers from an index perspective, the FSTE 100 (-0.5%) lags its peers amid a firmer GBP and softness in Sage shares (-5.5%) after a disappointing earnings update. Looking at the sectors, health care names outperform their peers following the latest earnings update from Novartis (+2.4%), to the downside, utility names lag after Suez Environment (-17%) issued a profit warning, IT names are also seen lower with Infineon and STMicroelectronics near the foot of the DAX and CAC respectively.

    Top European News
    • Euro-Area Economy Opens 2018 With Best Growth in Almost 12 Years
    • U.K. Labor Market Shows Surprise Strength as Employment Rises
    • Spain Is Said to Pressure Abertis Investor to Accept ACS Bid
    • Glapinski: Polish Rates May Increase in 2019 on Wage Pressure


    In FX, the USD has succumbed to yet more selling pressure, and right across the board as the Greenback’s losses stack up against G10 peers, EM currencies and commodities. The USD was dealt a further blow during European trade after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the weaker USD is good for trade. The Index is below layered chart ‘supports’ under 90.000 and now looking at 89.370 to potentially arrest the slide before the next round number. In terms of USD pairings, the 110.00 handle vs JPY has given way and 109.56 ahead of 109.07 are now within sight, while Cable has extended post-Brexit vote highs above the 1.4000 level to around 1.4075 and briefly broke above 1.4100 following the latest jobs report with UK employment at a record high. EUR/USD has probed a bit further beyond 1.2300 to 1.2345, but displaying some caution ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meet and a Fib level at 1.2377. USD/CAD has dipped below 1.2400 amidst some constructive NAFTA noises after the 1st day of the latest round of talks and 1.2355 is the nearest support/recent low. USD/CHF has also breached its previous January base and 0.9500 is within sight, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both on track to post fresh year-to-date peaks.

    In commodities, WTI crude futures trade in close proximity to the lows seen yesterday in the wake of the latest API inventory report which showed an unexpected build in headline crude stockpiles. Elsewhere in energy newsflow, source reports suggest that Saudi Arabia intend on keeping their Q1 crude oil production at 9.8mln bpd and exports at around 7mln bpd, despite planned domestic refinery maintenance. In metals markets, despite being relatively rangebound overnight, gold has benefitted during European trade from the broad softness in the USD. Elsewhere copper nursed some of its recent losses during Asia-Pac trade amid touted shortcovering. US API weekly crude stocks (19 Jan, w/e) +4.755M vs. Exp. -1.600M (Prev. -5.120M). Saudi Arabia intend on keeping their Q1 crude oil productions 9.8mln bpd, and exports around 7mln bpd, despite planned domestic refinery maintenance

    Looking at the day ahead, the latest monthly PMIs with flash January manufacturing, services and composite prints are due for the Euro area, Germany, France and the US. In the UK, the November and December employment stats are due. Also due in the US are December existing home sales and the November FHFA house price index. General Electric and Ford Motor are due to report.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.1%
    • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55, prior 55.1; US Services PMI, est. 54.3, prior 53.7; US Composite PMI, prior 54.1
    • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.7m, prior 5.81m; MoM, est. -1.89%, prior 5.6%

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It seems it would take more than a glass of water to halt the melt up in equities at the moment although yesterday was a day of differentiation as earnings saw winners and losers. The Stoxx 600 (+0.17%) rose for the 11th out of 16 days in 2018 with the DAX (+0.71%) beating the CAC (-0.12%) on decent earnings and a strong ZEW survey (see below). Although the broad US equity indices were flat to slightly higher (S&P +0.22%, Dow -0.01%), the NASDAQ climbed +0.71% as Netflix soared +9.98% after the previous night’s subscriber numbers impressed. On the other side, the DOW was held back by P&G (-3.09%) and Johnson and Johnson (-4.26%) despite headline beats to earnings, in part as some investors were hoping for a faster turnaround at P&G and the US appeals court ruled J&J’s Remicade patent was invalid. As an aside Netflix market cap is now above $100bn after nearly doubling over the last 12 months. Talking of big round numbers, Microsoft climbed above $700bn market cap this week and Apple is also above $900bn. Could the latter soon be the first trillion dollar company since PetroChina hit that mark for one day back in the heady days of 2007?

    Staying with records, the MSCI emerging markets index rose for the 8th consecutive day (+1.12%). The last time this occurred was in July 17 and the recent record to beat was back in March 15 when the index rose for 11 straight days. Similarly the HK H-shares index was up for the 18th consecutive day with a cumulative gain of 16.1% (vs. Hang Seng at 11.3%), partly aided by inflows from mainland China. This morning it is up +0.16% as we type, clinging on to a 19th day of gains, comfortably a record run.

    Elsewhere in Asia, markets are taking a breather and are modestly lower. The Kospi is broadly flat (-0.06%), while the Nikkei (-0.67%) and Hang Seng (-0.03%) are all down as we type. The January Nikkei manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (vs. 54 previous). After the bell last night, the world’s largest maker of analog chips Texas instrument fell c7% after its 1Q profit missed market expectations. This morning the main event are the European flash PMIs with the recent strength in this data setting the tone for the global equity rally over the last 18 months so always an important release.

    Looking back to yesterday now, in the US, the Fed nominee Marvin Goodfriend received a bit of grilling at the Senate Panel although it is unlikely to jeopardise his confirmation prospects. Elsewhere the US Senate has voted 84-13 to confirm Jerome Powell as the Fed chair.

    Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. Government bonds were firmer with UST 10y yields down the most in c1 month (-3.7bp), partly aided by the dovish BOJ speak earlier while Bunds and Gilts also fell 0.6bp. Peripheral 10y bond yields also declined c3bp, in part as Spain’s biggest syndicated debt offering since 2014 was well received with bids c4.5x higher than the amount offered (€10bn 10-yr notes).

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index extended on its 3 year low (-0.31%), while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.30% and 0.09% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil was up 1.42% ahead of data on US crude stockpiles and Brent was back near $70/bbl again. Elsewhere, precious metals strengthened (Gold +0.55%; Silver +0.20%) but copper fell 2.01% to a five week low due to concerns of rising inventories while other base metals were little changed (Zinc +0.02%; Aluminium -0.17%).

    Away from the markets and onto US trade. China’s Ministry of Commerce noted China is “strongly” dissatisfied with the US tariffs hikes on imported solar panels and washing machines yesterday, calling them a misuse of trade measures. Back home, Senator Pat Roberts noted the President has had a “more populist view” on trade and “I do not know of a Senator in the Republican conference who has not voiced concern about our trade policy”, in part as goods assembled in the US with imported parts can create jobs in both countries too. In markets generally yesterday there was chatter as to whether this marked another small step towards a more protectionist world. Elsewhere, Mexico’s Economy Minister Guajardo said “Mexico is ready to work constructively towards getting” a good agreement on NAFTA and it could happen anywhere from March and even July when the national elections will be on.

    Over in Germany, the latest Forsa poll suggests the majority of Germans (59%) support the coalition talks between the SPD and Ms Merkel’s bloc. Notably, 65% of SPD voters welcome the negotiations for a “grand coalition” and support is much higher among CDU and CSU voters (c87%).

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January Richmond Fed manufacturing index was below market at 14 (vs. 19). In Europe, both the Eurozone’s January ZEW survey on expectations (31.8 vs. 29 previous) and consumer confidence (1.3 vs. 0.6 expected) readings beat expectations, with the latter marking a fresh high since August 2000. In Germany, the January ZEW survey on current situations (95.2 vs. 89.6) rose to a fresh 27 year record high and the expectations index (20.4 vs. 17.7) also beat. In the UK, the public sector net borrowing was lower than expected at £2.6bln (vs. £5bln) as Britain benefited from a strong rise in value-added tax receipts and a £1.2bln credit from the EU due to 2017 budget amendments. Elsewhere, the January CBI trend total orders index was also above at 14 (vs. 12 expected) with trends selling prices higher than last month’s reading (40 vs. 23).

    Looking at the day ahead, the latest monthly PMIs with flash January manufacturing, services and composite prints are due for the Euro area, Germany, France and the US. In the UK, the November and December employment stats are due. Also due in the US are December existing home sales and the November FHFA house price index. General Electric and Ford Motor are due to report.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/futures-sea-green-dollar-bloodbath-accelerates
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: January 234
    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/24/2018 - 08:04


    • Trump Team at Davos Backs Weaker Dollar, Sharpens Trade War Talk (BBG)
    • Dollar skids to three-year low as Mnuchin welcomes currency weakness (Reuters)
    • State Tax Workarounds Could Mean $154 Billion Lost to Treasury (BBG)
    • Truck Shortage Forces Firms to Cut Shipments or Pay Up (WSJ)
    • Dalio Warns That Rise in Yields Could Spark Bond Crash (BBG)
    • Great Ormond Street to return donations from men-only dinner (FT)
    • Amazon agrees to turn over third-party seller data (CNBC)
    • This Is Why the Pentagon Isn’t Happy With the F-35 (BBG
    • Founder and Protégé Clash, Pushing Och-Ziff Into Crisis (WSJ)
    • GE posts $10 billion loss as quarterly revenue drops 5 percent (Reuters)
    • Beleaguered GE Sticks to Full-Year Profit Forecast (BBG)
    • Comcast tops profit estimates even as it sheds video subscribers (Reuters)
    • Carles Puigdemont has right to lead local government: Catalan parliament speaker (Reuters)
    • Mexico’s drug cartels, now hooked on fuel, cripple nation’s refineries (Reuters)
    • Trump’s Wall May Not Be a Big Obstacle in Immigration Debate (BBG)
    • Brazil braces for ruling that could bar Lula from 2018 race (Reuters)
    • New Life for Kushners’ Troubled N.J. Towers After Meeting With Mayor (BBG)
    • If You Drink Coffee in California, Be Warned: It May Cause Cancer (WSJ)
    • Toys "R" Us says to shut a fifth of its U.S. stores (Reuters)


    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The emerging fault lines in the global trading system were laid bare Tuesday, as 11 Pacific Rim nations agreed to forge a new commercial bloc that excludes the U.S., while President Donald Trump signed orders to curb cheap Asian imports he said had unfairly harmed American manufacturers. on.wsj.com/2BpupOQ

    - Och-Ziff Capital Management Group Llc faces turmoil as founder Daniel Och upends plan for James Levin to succeed him as head of the U.S.'s largest publicly traded hedge fund. Behind the rift: money and control. on.wsj.com/2BoeSPu

    - The Senate confirmed Jerome Powell to become the 16th chairman of the Federal Reserve, clearing the way for a new leader likely to continue raising interest rates to keep the economic expansion on track. on.wsj.com/2BpvxC4

    - A top FBI agent last spring expressed skepticism about the burgeoning investigation into Trump associates' ties to Russian electoral meddling, according to a newly released text message, a few months before his texts critical of the president cost him his role in the special counsel's probe. on.wsj.com/2Bq4k27

    - CSX Corp will require the railroad's chief executive to submit to an annual physical exam that will be reviewed by the board, adopting an unusually aggressive approach to a delicate issue just weeks after the death of its previous CEO. on.wsj.com/2BqnxRw

    - Walt Disney Co is the latest major company to give its employees $1,000 bonuses following the federal cut in corporate taxes. on.wsj.com/2Bq0INH

    - Twitter Inc operating chief Anthony Noto is leaving to become head of online lender Social Finance Inc, dealing a blow to Twitter's strategy for growth and raising questions about who will run day-to-day operations at the company. on.wsj.com/2Bo5prt

    FT

    - U.S. shale oil producer SandRidge Energy Inc rejected demands from activist investor Carl Icahn on Tuesday to replace two of its board members and amend its bylaws, saying any changes should be approved by a majority of shareholders.

    - The U.S. Senate on Tuesday confirmed Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as the next head of the central bank, succeeding Janet Yellen in a move likely to provide continuity in U.S. monetary policy as an aging economic recovery marches on.

    - British Prime Minister Theresa May slapped down her foreign minister, Boris Johnson, on Tuesday after he demanded more funding for Britain’s public health service, telling him any discussion of money saved from Brexit should be kept private.

    - U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions was questioned last week by the special counsel’s office investigating potential collusion between Russia and President Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, the U.S. Justice Department said on Tuesday.

    NYT

    - Tesla Inc's Chief Executive Elon Musk will be paid only if he reaches a series of jaw-dropping milestones based on the company's market value and operations. Otherwise, he will be paid nothing. nyti.ms/2DFGWmE

    - Kimberly-Clark Corp, the maker of Huggies and Kleenex, is laying off about 13 percent of its work force and shedding factories worldwide, amid declining birthrates that are affecting diaper sales and a retail price war that is weighing on profits. nyti.ms/2Fa0UDb

    - Rupert Murdoch's years-long effort to secure an even larger presence in the international media market suffered a new setback on Tuesday, when a British regulator provisionally rejected Twenty-First Century Fox Inc's bid to acquire full control of Sky Plc. nyti.ms/2DAtuk3

    - Online lender Social Finance Inc has hired Twitter Inc's chief operating officer, Anthony Noto, as its new chief executive. nyti.ms/2n6TXLJ

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL
    ** Aurora Cannabis Inc is closing in on a deal to buy CanniMed Therapeutics Inc for more than $1 billion, the largest acquisition to date in Canada's marijuana industry. tgam.ca/2Bp80kO

    ** Corporate documents show the China's authoritarian Communist Party has an ownership stake in little-known Shanghai Energy Corp, giving China's powerful political apparatus a growing financial interest in a key Canadian industrial sector. tgam.ca/2n6cGYn

    NATIONAL POST
    ** Apple Inc CEO Tim Cook took in a demonstration of Canadian e-commerce platform Shopify Inc's augmented reality capabilities during a visit to Toronto, while touting his company's investment in the emerging technology. bit.ly/2BpQtZZ

    ** Some representatives of the Canadian auto industry slammed Canada's decision to sign a revised Trans-Pacific Partnership, calling the deal harmful to the auto sector and warning that it undermines Canada's position in NAFTA negotiations. bit.ly/2n6suuk

    Britain

    The Times

    - The independent accountant chosen by Barclays Plc to rule on its controversial ringfencing plan and the effect on 200,000 pension fund members previously had been in charge of the team advising the disgraced businessman Dominic Chappell on buying BHS for 1 pound ($1.40). bit.ly/2DFfu8A

    - The proposed takeover of Sky Plc by Twenty-First Century Fox Inc edged closer yesterday after a watchdog said that the deal raised concerns about media plurality but outlined how they could be assuaged. bit.ly/2GazCOh

    The Guardian

    - Seniors doctors from overseas who have been appointed to fill key roles in hospitals around the UK are being blocked from taking up their jobs by the Home Office because their NHS salaries are too low under immigration rules. bit.ly/2n4FtM9

    - Groceries wholesaler Palmer & Harvey had debts of more than 700 million pounds when it collapsed in November, according to an administrators' report published on Tuesday. bit.ly/2DyIG1B

    The Telegraph

    - Taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is ditching the London headquarters from which disgraced former boss Fred Goodwin ran his bloated banking empire prior to the financial crisis. bit.ly/2E3CTy7

    - Thousands of J Sainsbury Plc's shop staff have been put at risk following an overhaul of its store management roles in the latest cost-cutting drive by the company. bit.ly/2n5UQEm

    Sky News

    - Tesco Plc has poached the boss of one of Ireland's biggest lenders to run its financial services arm, a move that will deal a blow to the state-backed Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. bit.ly/2n3kb2q

    - The manufacturer of Huggies nappies, Andrex toilet paper and Kleenex tissues, Kimberly-Clark Corp has refused to rule out job losses among its UK workforce as it seeks to cut up to 5,500 roles worldwide. bit.ly/2E27UT1

    The Independent

    - The European Union has taken eight countries off its tax haven blacklist after they apparently took measures to "remedy" EU concerns about their approaches to tax dodging. ind.pn/2ryKK4c

    - Travellers to the Lake District and south-west Scotland will get a new option from the summer when Carlisle airport re-opens for scheduled passenger traffic. ind.pn/2n3z98O

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/frontrunning-january-234
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Guerrilla Insight Episode 02: Memos, Fuzzy Math, Fuzzy Logic, Corrupt Empire
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 13 hours ago
    Memos, Memos, Memos...What is to become of all of this when the real problems that are systemic is still live , real and relevant?

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

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    TVR [#449] 01-24-2018 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN: BITCOIN GOLD SILVER MINERS NASDAQ $$$ BONDS OIL
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Jan 24, 2018
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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  32. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Cyber War Coming In 2018?



    -- Published: Wednesday, 24 January 2018

    – Cyber war is increasing threat – Investors are not prepared for
    – Third most likely global risk in 2018 is cyber war say WEF
    – “Scale and sophistication of attacks is going to grow”

    – EU, US, NATO lay down ground rules for offensive cyber war
    – Ireland is viable target for attackers but is ‘grossly unprepared for cyber war’
    – UK should expect attack that cripples infrastructure within 2 years
    – Trump administration may use nuclear weapons in response to cyber attacks

    – Cyber war designed to have a economic impact on countries
    – Invest in physical assets as well as digital assets & currencies
    – Avoid ETF and digital gold and own physical gold that is allocated and segregated


    Editor: Mark O’Byrne

    [​IMG]

    Cyber-attacks are the third most likely global risk for 2018, behind extreme weather conditions and natural disasters, according to a new report by the World Economic Forum.

    Estimated to cost over $1 trillion per year, cyber-attacks are now more expensive than natural disasters which in 2017 brought in a bill of $300 billion.

    “We are still under resourced in the amount of effort put into trying to mitigate this risk…Cyber is at or above the scale of natural catastrophes [in terms of financial damage caused] and yet the comparative infrastructure is much smaller in scale,” according to John Drzik of WEF report partner Marsh.

    The World Economic Forum’s Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, head of economic progress, told a press conference that cyber-risks are affecting society and the economy in “new, broader ways.”

    They now impact not just the corporate sector as we usually assume but also government infrastructures and the geopolitical sphere. Arguably we are also seeing them shape societies.

    The report’s launch comes at a time when cyber-attack warnings are coming in thick and fast. Governments have been warned this week that they are grossly underprepared for an attack which could see politics taken out of the electorate’s hands, billions wiped from financial markets and chaos generally created between otherwise peaceful nations.

    The average citizen and investor is only vaguely aware of these risks and has yet to “join the dots” and realise the real risks they pose to economies, financial markets and people’s online savings and investments.

    This is becoming urgent and yet complacency is common place with financial media focus on soaring stock markets and parabolic crypto currencies.

    Governments, financial service providers, banks, brokerages are all grossly underprepared for a cyber-attack which means that your assets are vulnerable.

    Governments unprepared

    This week at the incredibly ‘in-touch’ event that is Davos a public-private platform in the form of a Global Centre for Cybersecurity will be launched.

    “Cyber-risk is rapidly emerging as a major headache in boardrooms of all sorts of institutions around the world,” Marsh’s John Drzik told the recent press conference. The new center for cybersecurity will, (launched with Interpol) be a “framework in which there will be a better opportunity for leaders of institutions across the public and private sectors to pool information on their intelligence and response capabilities to get ahead of the curve on a number of these risks.”

    Hopefully this is not a case of too little too late.

    Throughout the world, including in the United Kingdom and Ireland, experts have been very vocal about the dangers that face entire nations.

    CEO of Ward Solutions, Pat Larkin has told the Irish government that they need to ‘wake-up’ to the risks facing the country’s cyber systems as they are totally under prepared for what may come.

    The country is completely unprepared for the “doomsday scenario” that was seen in Estonia, in 2007, Larkin warned via the Sun.ie in the first week of this year.

    Intermittent but continuous power outages, attacks on the financial infrastructure, the transport and water infrastructure — to the point where it is significantly impacting the commercial and social activities of the citizens and damages the country’s brand internationally and its economy — would be the worst case scenario.

    [​IMG]

    In a warning that is relevant to all technologically advanced and vulnerable nations, Larkin said:

    “A continuous drip-feed of cyber attacks would lead to very unstable environment — a targeted attack like that on Ireland could wreak havoc on the country.

    It would have a major impact on everyday life for citizens and businesses.

    But it would also be catastrophic for the country’s foreign direct investment.

    Major companies come to Ireland to invest for a number of reasons — the talent, tax environment — but they also come here because Ireland is a very politically stable country with good infrastructure and good services.

    This is the major challenge for Ireland. Given that we are not well prepared or protected, if someone really did decide to target us they could inflict continuous long-term damage.”

    Meanwhile in the UK, Ciaran Martin, head of the country’s National Cyber Security Centre, has told the Guardian:

    “I think it is a matter of when, not if and we will be fortunate to come to the end of the decade without having to trigger a category one attack.”

    A Category One (C1) attack can be defined as an attack that might cripple infrastructure such as energy supplies, banks (including ATMs) and the financial services sector.

    Sadly it is not just country-based attacks that both Ireland, the UK and its contemporaries need to be aware of.

    Ciaran Martin explains:

    “What we have seen over the past year or so is a shift in North Korean attack motivation from what you might call statecraft – disrupting infrastructure – through to trying to get money through attacks on banks but also the deployment of ransomware, albeit in a way that didn’t pan out in the way the attackers wanted to.”

    As well as North Korea, intrusions have been blamed on Russia, China and Iran. Some of these, Martin said, were espionage-based, scouting out vulnerabilities in infrastructure for potential future disruption.

    Although the UK signed a treaty with China in 2015 not to engage in cyber-attacks for commercial gain, espionage was left out of the treaty.

    “What we have seen from Russia thus far against the UK is a series of intrusions for espionage and possible pre-positioning into key sectors but in a more controlled form of attack from others,” he said.

    The changing definition of war

    What many nations in their cyber operations seem to be doing, including Russia and the U.S., is something that once would not have come under the definition of war. They (along with the likes of North Korea) are not using things that go ‘bang’ or cause physical harm and destruction.

    Instead, they are using weapons which give them a greater advantage in this new multi-polar world which has made way for new forms of competing with one another.

    In previous eras ‘war’ came about as a push for territory, now in this interconnected world, physical territory is easier to obtain once you have taken hold of the operating systems, the political system and even the minds of the electorate.

    Whilst terrorism is still a priority for Western defence, a British Army Chief believes that the cyber threat, particularly from Russia is a more immediate concern.

    As ever, let us hope that calm minds and the diplomats prevail and nations do not pursue the cyber war option.

    Worryingly, this is not the attitude of the U.S. military and the Trump administration who, in simple terms, believe that the U.S. should use nuclear weapons in retaliation for a cyber attack.

    That’s right, various drafts of the Nuclear Posture Review, as seen by the New York Times, suggest that the US would retaliate to a non-nuclear attack with nuclear weapons.

    Journalists David Sanger and William Broad report in the New York Times that nuclear weapons can be used should an adversary conduct “non-nuclear strategic attacks … on U.S., allied, or partner civilian population or infrastructure.”

    Quite simply, the new U.S. military doctrine seems to be threatening to nuke anyone who conducts a massively disruptive cyberattack on the power grid, water system or financial markets of the U.S. or its friends.

    Cyber-attacks increase in cost and reach

    Infrastructure generally means electricity, water, roads, rails etc to the general public. However, infrastructure in today’s connected world also means cloud based services, online brokerages and bank accounts.

    If you use online services, even just email or online banking, then you are exposed to the cloud.

    “If an attacker took down a major cloud provider, the damages could be $50bn (£36bn) to $120bn, so something in the range of a [Hurricane] Sandy event to a Katrina event,” warns WEF report author John Drzik.

    Companies are well aware of this rising cost and are feeling the pinch already. In the summer of 2017 an attack more potent than WannaCry took a hold of a number of companies’ operations. The attack, NotPetya, went after vulnerabilities in Ukrainian accounting software but ended up causing serious damage to non-Ukrainian counterparties.

    Large multinationals from Mondelez to Moller-Maersk, Reckitt Benckiser to FedEx, were forced to warn shareholders that the ‘NotPetya’ cyber attack had hit their bottom line, costing each company hundreds of millions of dollars. They said that the extent of the damage to their finances was not yet known but projected that the year’s revenue would be hit.

    The price of a cyber attack varies significantly depending on the kind of breach a company suffers, a company’s size, industry and country, and how well prepared it was for an attack.

    Overall, the cost of cyber security for companies rose 22.7 per cent last year to an average of $11.7m, mainly due to a rising number of security breaches. The number of breaches is up an average 27.4 per cent year on year, according to the Ponemon Institute’s Cost of Cyber Crime report. The report was based on 2,182 interviews from 254 companies in seven countries.

    And ultimately who bears the brunt of these increased costs? The clients. You and I. That’s not just in monetary terms, its also in terms of risk and inconvenience.

    It will be our data that will be increasingly exposed, our passwords that will need to be triple-verified, or our bio-metric data insisted upon in order to access our money and our money confiscated in bail-ins should banks get into difficulties again either due to hacking and cyber war or plain old bankruptcy.

    Even then, with all the complex password and finger prints in the world, we cannot be guaranteed that our financial assets are safe. Why not?

    Because so many of them are digital. They’re not real. Therefore, they can be manipulated, stolen and vanished should a cyber attacker choose to do so.

    Trust people not systems

    “Perhaps their strongest control is the human firewall; the person in the business,” says Larkin when advising on how companies can best protect themselves and their data.

    Perhaps savers and investors should take the same approach and place increasing trust in assets which are tangible and which can be verified, handled, seen and taken delivery of.

    This is not the first time that we have written about the growing threat of cyber terrorism. To many it is seen as scaremongering. A bit like nuclear war it seems to be something that is so far removed from our day to day lives that we cannot relate or appreciate the level to which a cyber attack would disrupt our lives.

    All we are doing is reporting on what is already out there regarding the risks of cyber war. Security and defence chiefs, global economic organisations and private companies, governments and journalists are all sitting up and paying attention to these threats. But, many are still severely behind the curve when it comes to the potential impacts on investors and savers.

    This is why investors need to stay one step ahead. Luckily for them it’s not as complicated as it is for those trying to protect the infrastructure of massive companies, governments and nations.

    It is simply a matter of prudent asset allocation and diversifying into physical assets that cannot be deleted or transferred at the touch of a button: physical, allocated and segregated gold and silver bullion and coins.


    Recommended Reading


    Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments

    Cyber Attacks Show Vulnerability of Digital Systems and Digital Currencies

    Cyber Wars Could Crash Markets and Threat To Humanity – Buffett

    News and Commentary

    Gold ETF Assets Climb to Highest Since 2013 (Bloomberg.com)

    Gold firm as dollar sinks further (Reuters.com)

    Australia Is Cashing In on Gold ETFs (Bloomberg.com)

    South Korea now requires verified ID to trade cryptocurrencies (MarketWatch.com)

    Gold Market Mulling Blockchain to Secure $200 Billion of Supply (Bloomberg.com)

    First Cryptocurrency Freight Deal Takes Russian Wheat to Turkey (Bloomberg.com)

    [​IMG]
    Source: Bloomberg

    This Rare Bear Who Called the Crash Warns Housing Is Too Hot Again (Bloomberg.com)

    Now that the bond bull market is over, what comes next? (MoneyWeek.com)

    Look For The Stock Market To Move Higher Before Topping In Early To Mid March (TheTechnicalTraders.com)

    Everyone Is Affected: Why The Implications Of The Intel “Bug” Are Staggering (ZeroHedge.com)

    Why Bitcoin Is Silver’s Best Friend In 2018 (Silver-Pheonix500.com)

    “America First” and China – and what’s next (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

    Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

    24 Jan: USD 1,350.50, GBP 957.50 & EUR 1,093.77 per ounce
    23 Jan: USD 1,337.10, GBP 959.10 & EUR 1,091.74 per ounce
    22 Jan: USD 1,334.15, GBP 959.12 & EUR 1,087.87 per ounce
    19 Jan: USD 1,335.80, GBP 960.17 & EUR 1,087.74 per ounce
    18 Jan: USD 1,329.75, GBP 961.14 & EUR 1,088.40 per ounce
    17 Jan: USD 1,337.35, GBP 969.45 & EUR 1,092.48 per ounce

    Silver Prices (LBMA)

    24 Jan: USD 17.19, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.93 per ounce
    23 Jan: USD 16.98, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
    22 Jan: USD 17.04, GBP 12.25 & EUR 13.90 per ounce
    19 Jan: USD 17.04, GBP 12.27 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
    18 Jan: USD 17.09, GBP 12.31 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
    17 Jan: USD 17.21, GBP 12.49 & EUR 14.10 per ounce

    https://news.goldcore.com/

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1516803760.php
     
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    Toys R Us to close 180 stores in the coming months as it struggles with $5billion debt and competition from Amazon
    • Toy retailer announced on Wednesday that 20 per cent of US stores will close
    • Closures will begin in February and be mostly complete by mid-April
    • CEO admits company made 'operational missteps' in key holiday season


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5307227/Toys-R-Us-hobbled-competition-shutter-stores.html#ixzz557zcoFnF
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Bitcoin Used to Settle First Freight Deal

    January 24, 2018 by Bloomberg

    [​IMG]
    Photo: By BT Image / Shutterstock

    By Isis Almeida (Bloomberg) — Cryptocurrencies are making inroads into food commodity trading.

    The first freight deal settled in Bitcoin was executed last month on a vessel carrying wheat from top shipper Russia to Turkey, according to Prime Shipping Foundation, the venture behind the transaction.

    The consignment was part of pilot testing of Prime Shipping Foundation’s blockchain payment system for bulk commodities, said Chief Executive Officer Ivan Vikulov.

    The ledger-based digital technology will enable immediate processing of payments and conversion into and out of cryptocurrencies, according to the company, a partnership between Gibraltar-based Quorum Capital Ltd. and ship broker Interchart LLC. The group is also planning to create its own digital currency.

    “We are trying to develop a cross-border payment system that’s easier and faster than what’s available now,” Vikulov said by phone. “As far as we know, this is the first freight deal done in a cryptocurrency.”

    Soybeans Cargo
    The announcement comes soon after Louis Dreyfus Co., one of the world’s largest foodstuffs traders, said it struck the first agricultural commodity trade to use blockchain. The 166-year-old trading house used the technology to sell a cargo of U.S. soybeans to China’s Shandong Bohi Industry Co.

    The vessel used in Prime Shipping’s transaction carried 3,000 metric tons of wheat from Rostov-on-Don to Samsun. While the cargo is small, it highlights the potential cryptocurrencies could play in agricultural commodity markets. International sanctions against countries such as Syria have affected their access to U.S. dollars, limiting their ability to import food.

    Prime Shipping Foundation is seeking to get a banking license in Gibraltar, one of the most crypto-friendly jurisdictions, the company said in an emailed statement. That would make conversions between government-issued and cryptocurrencies faster and easier, according to Vikulov.

    The venture is developing its own cryptocurrency and plans to raise funds for it in mid-2018, he said.

    While accepting payment in Bitcoin comes with its challenges due to market volatility, there are now futures on exchanges such as that run by CME Group Inc. that would allow hedging to take place, Vikulov said. Bitcoin prices have dropped more than 40 percent since reaching a high in December.

    © 2018 Bloomberg L.P

    http://gcaptain.com/bitcoin-used-to-settle-first-freight-deal/
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Roughly 1% and 3%
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold climbed up to $1355.40 in midmorning New York trade before it pared back a bit into midday, but it then jumped to as high as $1361.70 in afternoon trade and ended with a gain of 1.25%. Silver rose to as high as $17.616 and ended with a gain of 2.99%.
     
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    Gold BREAKS $1,360, USD Falls to 89, & Metals News
    Junius Maltby



    Streamed live 5 hours ago
    News of the day for precious metals, silver and gold rising as dollar falls below 90. Live breaking news as Gold breaches $1,360. US dollar weighed down by inflation concerns as well as possible trade wars. BEST ARTICLES SAVED FOR LAST SO STAY ON STAY TUNED!
     
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    The Perth Mint To Entice Gold Investors With Cryptocurrency
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Jan 24, 2018
     
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    Perth Mint to Create Gold Backed Crypto
    Silver Fortune



    Published on Jan 24, 2018
    For believers in physical silver and gold, the Holy Grail of cryptos has been a trustworthy silver or gold backed crypto. Will the Perth Mint deliver on this exciting announcement?
     
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    TRUMP, Cryptos, 2018 FORECAST, and YOUR QUESTIONS! | Rob Kirby
    Reluctant Preppers



    Published on Jan 24, 2018
    (Recorded 1/23/18) Renowned proprietary analyst Rob Kirby offers his sage perspective on TRUMP's FIRST YEAR BEST & WORST and the 2018 YEAR AHEAD FORECAST, including YOUR VIEWER Questions!

    ==================================
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    1. Trump’s First-Year Check-In: A. What has Trump DONE that no other US president has had the courage to do? B. What has Trump NOT-DONE that you were hoping and expecting him to do? C. Does Trump deserve any credit for the unstoppable stock market? D. Record high Market: healthy or unhealthy?
    2. Crypto Runup & Crash: sustainable or speculative flash in the pan?
    3. Globalist Elite - At World Economic Forum A. India PM “Anti-globalization and isolationist trends must be stopped”
    4. AND YOUR Viewers Questions: A. Can and will the powers that be continue MANIPULATING THE SILVER MARKET INDEFINITELY? If not, WHAT WILL END IT? B. Dollar and silver down at the same time! How? C. Who really determines interest rates? The market, the FED, or someone else? D. Barter in silver realistic after a hyperinflation crash? How about a Gold Money credit card? E. Economic crash; UK, EU, US, China, Russia… Metals & Cryptos survive? F. Following a collapse, how will the average person be affected?


    Subscribe (it's FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers for more ► http://bit.ly/Subscribe-Free

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