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Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Global Stocks Shake Off North Korea Jitters; Chinese Yuan Slides

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 5, 2017 6:54 AM


    Yesterday morning, with the US closed for holiday but with S&P futures trading modestly lower on the latest set of North Korean geopolitical fears, we asked "is this time different", referencing last week's similar setup, when futures gapped lower on Monday after the Kim regime shot a missile over Japan, only to surge into the end of the week.

    [​IMG]

    Well, as of this morning, it seems that traders are eager to buy the latest dip, as US futures pared yesterday's losses before markets reopen after the Labor Day holiday, as global stocks looked to put any North Korean unpleasantries into the rear view mirror and assume another happy ending: Japanese shares fell fractionally overnight, but the decline was modest as yen gains appear to have stabilized, while Asia ex Japan was higher and Europe has already moved on with bourses on the continent glowing green ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

    In a nutshell, North Korean risks remain just below the surface as U.S. markets reopen following long weekend. U.S. equity futures continue to remain in a tight range midway between Friday close and Globex reopening gap-lower precipitated by ICBM news from Korea. European equities open higher and rally further, led by German DAX, future closes Friday upside gap. Auto sector well supported after GM reports record Aug. China vehicle deliveries. Merck KGaA (+3.5%) also outperforms after divestment reports; energy stocks lifted as crude futures push through yesterday’s high. USD trades broadly flat, AUD marginally supported by comments RBA’s Lowe on continuing current policy. USD/JPY partially unwinds overnight risk-off move lower, TRY underperforms EMFX after political warning from Merkel. German curve slightly steeper with peripheral spreads tightening; USTs remain within yesterday’s range

    The biggest dip buyers so far emerged in Europe, where most industry sectors in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained as data from China to the euro area pointed to more growth for the global economy. Confirmation that euro zone business activity remained robust last month helped the pan-European STOXX 600 to claw back most of the 0.5 percent it lost on Monday amid international condemnation of the previous day’s nuclear test



    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile Asian markets were somewhat less euphoric: overnight China’s Caixin/Markit services PMI rose to 52.7 in August, the highest reading in three months. The market reaction to that was muted, however, with sentiment in Asian equity markets still subdued. Chinese bourses eked out small 0.2-0.3 percent gains but Seoul and Tokyo remained red. Speaking at a summit of the world’s biggest emerging economies in China, Russian President Vladimir Putin again warned that threatening military action against North Korea could trigger “a global catastrophe”. “Russia condemns North Korea’s exercises, we consider that they are a provocation ... (But) ramping up military hysteria will lead to nothing good,” he told reporters.

    More on the political front, overnight South Korea’s Asia Business Daily, citing an unidentified source, reported North Korea had been observed moving a rocket that appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) possibly in preparation for a launch.

    As with many political risk plays over the past couple of years, market moves suggested a reluctance to price in tail risks on every possible bad outcome and more of a focus on the prosaic but upbeat global economic picture. As we showed yesterday, it has taken markets roughly 31 days on average to "fill the gap" from all post-WWII geopolitical shocks, and this time appears to be no different.

    [​IMG]

    Which while understandable, is in some ways is odd, because the escalation from a potential nuclear war with North Korea shows no signs of abating: President Trump agreed to support billions of dollars in new weapons sales to South Korea after North Korea’s largest nuclear test, while the US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley said America would seek the strongest possible sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s regime. Tensions escalated after Asia Business Daily reported North Korea was preparing to fire an ICBM missile.

    In currencies, the early risk off tone has dampened in early European trade, as CHF and JPY have both lost ground against their main counterparts. The Dollar recovered from earlier losses as investors unwound shorts built on Monday as Treasuries pared gains while bunds fall, though still trade higher from Friday on persistent haven demand amid a report that North Korea is preparing to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile before Saturday.

    The RBA kept rates on hold, as expected at 1.5%, with markets fairly unfazed. Immediate slight depreciation was seen in the AUD, reacting to comments from the RBA stating that a rise in AUD would lead to slower economic growth than otherwise, however, the 20-pip fall was quickly retraced. 0.8 continues to behave as resistance in AUD/USD as the August high continues to hold. Yen gains were limited. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the tumble in the onshore yuan, which after a record long rise of more than two consecutive weeks, suffered its biggest drop since Feb. 7 as the greenback erased earlier losses and the PBOC set a weaker-than-expected fixing. The CNY slid 0.29% to 6.5502 per dollar as of early morning trading. The PBOC strengthened the yuan reference rate by 0.45% to 6.5370, however this was less than the average Bloomberg survey estimate of 6.5291.

    [​IMG]

    In rates, treasuries erased earlier gains and bunds slipped from the open as European stocks rose and German PMIs print stronger than forecast. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 2.14 percent; Germany’s 10-year yield increased one basis point to 0.37 percent; Britain’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 1.057 percent.

    In commodity markets, U.S. WTI oil prices edged higher, while U.S. gasoline prices slumped to pre-Hurricane Harvey levels, as oil refineries and pipelines in the U.S. Gulf Coast slowly resumed activity, easing supply concerns. WTI crude futures ticked up 0.2% to trade at $47.38 per barrel, though global benchmark Brent prices barely budged at $52.37. The reassuring China PMI data helped copper hit a three-year high in industrial metals markets, and nickel hovered near a 14-month peak.

    Meanwhile, bitcoin BTC=BTSP dropped further from Saturday's all-time high of $4,979.9 to trade at $4,012. China said on Monday it was banning the practice of raising funds through launches of token-based digital currencies, known as initial coin offerings (ICOs).

    Economic data include July factory orders, several Fed speakers are due. Companies reporting earnings include Hewlett Packard Enterprise and HealthEquity.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction amid upbeat Chinese data and lingering geopolitical concerns
    • RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged as expected and noted slow income growth
    • Looking ahead, highlights include: US factory orders, Fed’s Brainard, Kashkari and Kaplan
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,469.75
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 375.72
    • MSCI Asia down 0.1% to 160.04
    • MSCI ASia ex Japan up 0.2% to 530.88
    • Nikkei down 0.6% to 19,385.81
    • Topix down 0.8% to 1,590.71
    • Hang Seng Index unchanged at 27,741.35
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,384.32
    • Sensex up 0.2% to 31,772.63
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.07% to 5,706.23
    • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,326.62
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.376%
    • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1882
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 1.746%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.553%
    • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $52.40/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,330.41
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 92.68
    Top Overnight News
    • There is a high chance North Korea will fire an ICBM missile before the Sept. 9 foundation day after the Pyongyang regime started moving such a weapon, Asia Business Daily reported Tuesday, citing unidentified intelligence officials.
    • Hurricane Irma has strengthened into a Category 4 storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands; reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts
    • United Technologies Corp. agreed to buy Rockwell Collins Inc.for about $23 billion, creating an aerospace behemoth that can outfit jetliners and warplanes from tip to tail
    • Prime Minister Theresa May is to use a speech on Sept. 21 to try to force the pace of Brexit negotiations as an October showdown with her European counterparts looms, EU Parliament Brexit coordinator Verhofstadt says
    • Nafta: latest talks are nearing conclusion without a major breakthrough or agreements on even the least-contentious topics according to people familiar
    • European Aug. Service PMIs: Spain 56.0 vs 57.0 est; Italy 55.1 vs 55.5 est; France 54.9 vs 55.5 est; Germany 53.5 vs 53.4 est; U.K. 53.2 vs 53.5 est.
    • RBA’s Lowe: stimulatory policy continues to be appropriate; lower rates would have increased medium-term risks; an appreciating AUD would hit tourism
    • Merkel: will press for EU to break off accession talks with Turkey
    • Russian Energy Minister: extension of output cut deal is an option, have already discussed with Saudi Arabia but no decision yet
    • China Aug. Caixin Services PMI: 52.7 vs 51.5 prev.
    • Trump and Moon Agree to Show Muscle After North Korea Nuke; Trump Confronts Accelerating Russia Probes on Multiple Fronts
    • Putin Rejects Sanctions as Ineffective Against North Korea; Putin Says Trump’s ‘Not My Bride,’ But Still Hopes for Detente
    • Activist Fund Takes Stake in Millicom to Push M&A, Africa Exit
    • Latest Nafta Talks Said to Near End Without Big Breakthrough
    • Big Win Has U.S. Investors Wanting More From European Stocks
    • September’s Bringing Tons of Catalysts to Shatter Market Calm
    • Cellectis Cancer Trials Suspended by U.S. FDA After Fatality
    • U.K. Minister Bradley Receives Regulator’s Response on Fox-Sky
    • Google, Xiaomi Revive Stalled Android One Program for India
    • Euro Area Poised for Fastest Economic Expansion in a Decade
    Asia equity markets traded with a mixed tone as the region mulled over encouraging Chinese PMI data and the lingering North Korea concerns. ASX 200 and Nikkei 225 both failed to sustain an early rebound and traded in mild negative territory, with financials weighing on Australia alongside ongoing money laundering issues at CBA which is the largest constituent in the index. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng traded choppy and struggled to maintain the early optimism from strong Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data, as geopolitical woes remained at the forefront of attention and after the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a 4th consecutive occasion. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly weaker despite the cautious risk tone in Japan, as today’s 10yr JGB auction results showed weaker demand with b/c lower than prior while the tail in price also widened. Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Aug) M/M 52.4 (Prev. 51.9) Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Aug) 52.7 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 51.5)

    Top Asian News
    • Xi, Modi Seek Stable Ties After Worst Border Spat Since 1962
    • China’s Xi Sees Risks to Global Economy, Opposes Protectionism
    • Modi’s 10 Million Jobs Challenge May Be Biggest Re- Election Risk
    • Man Whose Gear Found VW Fraud Says Diesel’s Death Overstated
    • Noble Group Expects to Find Buyer for Oil Business by End-Sept
    • Noble Group’s Shareholders Approve Gas & Power Sale in SGM Vote
    • Recruit, Japan Post Holdings to Be Added to Nikkei 225
    European equity markets opened marginally higher this morning, as investors seemingly shrug off fears of a sell-off amid North Korean led geopolitical concerns. Equity specific news has been headlined by Aveva and Schneider Electric making the deadline with their tie-up, as the British Co. jumped 25%. Fixed Income markets have seen some slow and tentative selling, as peripheral spreads marginally tighten. The 10y Italy/ Germany spread has seen support at 165bps, with further support expected at 160. The Spain/ German 10 traded to 112bps last week, however has followed the tightening nature and now trades around 105bps. Corporate issuance has been a theme of the day, with GlaxoSmithKline announce a 3-part EUR deal and Disney naming banks for its 5y Eurodollar bond The UK's DMO have opened books to sell their 5% 2065 Gilt with guidance seen at +0.5-0.75bps to UKTs.

    Top European News
    • Schneider to Take Control of U.K.’s Aveva in Software Merger
    • Angry Birds Maker Plans IPO That May Value It at $2 Billion
    • Merkel Says Diesel Needed as Bridge Technology to Electric Cars
    • Merkel to Press EU Leaders on Ending Accession Talks With Turkey
    • U.K. Economy Loses Steam as Services Weaken More Than Forecast
    • Payments Firm Nets Hit by Sudden Selloff as M&A Talks Drag On
    • GAM Holding Is Said to Pick New London Base After Brexit U-Turn
    • Warhammer Maker Tops U.K. Stock Gains for 2017 as Profit Surges
    In currencies, the risk off tone has dampened in early European trade, as CHF and JPY have both lost ground against their main counterparts.

    NZD outperforms, as NZD/USD looks to break out from Septembers range, with Kiwi traders set to await the GTD auction later.
    The RBA kept rates on hold, as expected at 1.5%, with markets fairly unfazed. Immediate slight depreciation was seen in the AUD,
    reacting to comments from the RBA stating that a rise in AUD would lead to slower economic growth than otherwise, however, the
    20-pip fall was quickly retraced. 0.8 continues to behave as resistance in AUD/USD as the August high continues to hold.

    In commodities, a marginal bid was seen in WTI and Crude futures, as September’s highs were broken. Elsewhere, the window for refiners in Asia to grow profits does, as opportunity is slowing in order to replace the production lost in the US amid Hurricane Harvey.

    OPEC news sees commentary from Iran, stating that OPEC members compliance with the agreement has improved in recent
    months, with the minister stating yesterday that unofficial talks were underway among the oil producing countries to extend their
    cuts next year.

    Iranian oil minister Zanagneh says that unofficial talks are underway to extend OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal.
    OPEC Secretary General says OPEC will continue its ongoing efforts to ensure much needed stability in the oil market, to
    contribute to mitigating any disruption to current or future supply following Hurricane Harvey.

    Azerbaijan oil production for August stood at 734.8k bpd, according to the energy ministry.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning the UK and Italy’s service and composite PMIs for August are due. Then there are final readings for the service and composite PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and final readings for 2Q GDP are also due. Across the pond, factory orders for July and final readings for durable and capital goods orders will be released. Onto other events, the US congress returns from the August recess and Fed Governor Brainard, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak at separate functions.

    US Economic Data
    • 10am: Factory Orders, est. -3.25%, prior 3.0%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.2%
    • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.0%, prior -6.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.5%
    • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.4%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.0%
    • 7:30am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
    • 12:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at University of Minnesota
    • 1:10pm: Fed’s Kashkari Holds Townhall Event in Minneapolis
    • 7pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Dallas
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    North Korea aside it was a slightly slow start to the week yesterday with the US out. In fact, when you see headlines about socialite Paris Hilton being the latest celeb to buy into crypto currencies then you know it’s been a quiet day.

    Away from the simple life, despite some acknowledgement that Sunday’s nuclear test by North Korea represented an escalation in terms of magnitude and show of force, the biggest reaction certainly for equities at least came at the open, before markets settled down into a bit of holding pattern for the rest of the session which is a consistent theme that we’ve seen after North Korea tensions flare up. After we went to print yesterday the news out of South Korea’s intelligence agency suggesting that North Korea might be in the process of preparing another intercontinental ballistic missile launch certainly turned a few heads though. Later on in the day we also heard from the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, who didn’t hold back by saying that Kim Jong-Un is “begging for war” and that “only the strongest sanctions will enable us to resolve this problem through diplomacy”. Haley also indicated that the US will now circle a draft of new sanctions which she has proposed a vote on in the UN Council on September 11th.

    Since then, late last night the White House released a statement saying that President Trump and South Korea President Moon “agreed to maximise pressure on North Korea using all means at their disposal”. Trump has also agreed for South Korea to buy “many billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment and weapons from the US”.

    In terms of the market reaction, the Stoxx 600 closed -0.52%, with only the energy sector finishing firmer. Across the region, the DAX fell -0.33%, FTSE 100 -0.36% and CAC -0.38%. At the other end of the risk spectrum, Gold (+0.66%) rose as high as $1,339.8/oz intraday which was the highest since September 2016, while the Yen and Swiss Franc ended the day +0.51% and +0.70% respectively. Bond markets were a smidgen firmer although again the moves were fairly modest all things considered. 10y Bunds ended 1bp lower at 0.362%, Gilts were broadly flat, but Italian BTPs and Spanish yields fell 3.6bps and 5.0bps respectively.

    This morning in Asia, markets are a bit more mixed with the Kospi (-0.27%), ASX 200 (-0.20%) and Nikkei (-0.67%) in the red but the Hang Seng (+0.23%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) a smidgen higher. 10y Treasury yields have opened the week down over 3bps while US equity futures are about -0.32% lower. The remaining PMIs released in China this morning were broadly positive, with the services PMI at 52.7 in August (vs. 51.5 previously) and the composite PMI at 52.4 (vs. 51.9 previously). Elsewhere, the Nikkei Japan services PMI was a tad softer than last month at 51.6 (vs. 52.0 previously).

    So with the US back from Labour Day it also means that Congress returns from the August recess and with that, the debt ceiling debate will come back to the forefront. As we said yesterday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin noted that funding relief for Tropical Storm Harvey could be tied into lifting the debt ceiling which in theory would then lower the risks around a shutdown but at the same time this also shortens the timeline to reach an agreement. However, according to a House Republican aide overnight, the House of Representatives is expected to vote on Wednesday on a Hurricane Harvey relief bill that “will not” combine the bill with legislations seeking to raise the US debt ceiling. Elsewhere, the Republican Study Committee Caucus Chairman Walker said that “the debt ceiling should be paired with significant fiscal and structural reforms”. So we will have to wait and see. Notably, October bills are still telling a different story compared to the rest of the market so it’ll be interesting to see if there is much price action today in that part of the curve.

    Moving on. While there wasn’t much economic data released yesterday, we did get the latest weekly ECB CSPP holdings data. As of September 1st the ECB held €107.3bn which implies net purchases settled last week of €1.1bn. That marks an average daily run rate last week of €268m which compares to the €347m since the program started. The more interesting stat however was that the latest CSPP/PSPP ratio was 10.9% in the month of August which compares to 10.8%, 13.6%, 14.7% and 12.5% in previous months. So this shows that throughout Q2, CSPP was trimmed more than PSPP relative to pre-April flows. This could be explained by the relative liquidity drop in corporates versus govies which means the September data is well worth keeping an eye on.

    Turning to the limited economic data yesterday, in the UK the construction PMI for August was slightly lower than expected at 51.1 (vs. 52.0 expected), while the Sentix investor confidence index was above market at 28.2 (vs. 27.0 expected) and up from 27.7 the month prior, meaning it has now returned to just below the cycle high. Elsewhere, the Eurozone PPI for July was slightly below expectations at 0.0% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 2.0% yoy (vs. 2.1% expected).

    Before we look at the day ahead, we thought it was interesting to note that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is proposing that its $333bn bond fund should shift away from its multi-currency benchmark index to one which only includes the Euro, Sterling and Dollar, and thus removing other G10 currencies like the Yen, Aussie Dollar as well as EM currencies, although systematic strategies should be put in place to invest in these. The justification is that “in the long term, the gains from broad international diversification are considerable for equities but moderate for bonds” and that “for an investor with 70% of his investments in an internationally diversified equity portfolio, there is little reduction in risk by also diversifying his bond investments across a large number of currencies”. Further, it notes the Japanese bond market is large but “far less liquid than those” other three currencies. The proposal will need to be approved by the government.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning the UK and Italy’s service and composite PMIs for August are due. Then there are final readings for the service and composite PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and final readings for 2Q GDP are also due. Across the pond, factory orders for July and final readings for durable and capital goods orders will be released. Onto other events, the US congress returns from the August recess and Fed Governor Brainard, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak at separate functions.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-05/global-stocks-shake-north-korea-jitters-chinese-yuan-slides
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 5

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 5, 2017 7:56 AM


    • North Korea Plans New Missile Test as U.S. Calls for Action (WSJ)
    • U.S. crude rises, gasoline falls as refineries restart (Reuters)
    • Putin says tougher sanctions senseless (Reuters)
    • Trump Confronts Accelerating Russia Probes on Multiple Fronts (BBG)
    • Trump poised to rescind Dreamer program, pressure Congress to fix (Reuters)
    • United Technologies to Buy Rockwell Collins for $23 Billion (WSJ)
    • Latest Nafta Talks Near End Without Major Breakthroughs (BBG)
    • Houston’s Environmental Threats Come Into Focus (WSJ)
    • September’s Bringing Tons of Catalysts to Shatter Market Calm (BBG)
    • Verizon Wants to Build an Advertising Juggernaut—It Needs Your Data First (WSJ)
    • Putin warns U.S. not to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons (Reuters)
    • Returning Lawmakers Face a Tough Agenda With Little Margin for Error (WSJ)
    • Hurricane Threat Grows for Florida as Irma Heads for Caribbean (BBG)
    • Key Trump Aide’s Departure Rattles President’s Allies (BBG)
    • Bennett Goodman Builds $95 Billion Private Credit Machine (BBG)
    • Med School Grads Go to Work for Hedge Funds (BBG)
    • Schneider Electric in advanced talks to take control of Aveva Group (WSJ)
    • Ratings agencies see falling reinsurance rates despite Harvey (Reuters)
    • How Corn Makes America Go Round (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley on Monday called for "the strongest possible measures" against North Korea at an emergency meeting of the Security Council after Pyongyang on Sunday set off its most powerful nuclear bomb yet. on.wsj.com/2iXa1Ru

    - United Technologies Corp has reached a deal to buy airplane-parts maker Rockwell Collins Inc for $23 billion. on.wsj.com/2iY4oSU

    - Canada appears to be giving the U.S. a difficult time at the negotiating table for NAFTA by introducing new provisions on labor and the environment that may struggle to gain traction in Washington. on.wsj.com/2iYFRNo

    - Tronc Inc. has acquired the Daily News, the nearly century-old New York City tabloid, giving the publisher of the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune a presence in the three largest cities in the U.S. on.wsj.com/2iVJP9y

    - Richard Cordray, the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, on Monday laid the groundwork for his possible return to Ohio politics, giving a an impassioned speech about inequality and his agency's work. on.wsj.com/2iX5sqb

    - France's Schneider Electric SE is in advanced talks to take control of British engineering software provider Aveva Group PLC. on.wsj.com/2iYD4nH


    FT

    * The United States accused North Korea’s trading partners on Monday of aiding its nuclear ambitions and said Pyongyang was “begging for war” after the North’s powerful nuclear test on Sunday and signs that further missile launches were on the way.

    * Bell Pottinger, one of Britain’s best-known PR agencies, was expelled from the industry’s trade association on Monday over a campaign adjudged to have deliberately stoked racial tensions in South Africa.

    * Estonian start-up Taxify is to go head to head with Uber in London’s highly competitive taxi-hailing market, and also has Paris in its sights


    NYT

    - Tronc Inc the publisher of The Los Angeles Times and The Chicago Tribune, announced on Monday that it had acquired The Daily News, the nearly 100-year-old tabloid that for decades set the city's agenda with its gossip, sports and city coverage. nyti.ms/2xKHyRY

    - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States could consider stopping all trade with countries doing business in North Korea, in a move that could spell economic catastrophe for the pugnacious country. nyti.ms/2wCsnud

    - United Technologies Corp has agreed to buy airplane parts maker Rockwell Collins Inc for $30 billion, including debt, establishing an industrial giant and cementing one of the largest deals ever in the aerospace industry. nyti.ms/2wCQicP

    - Lilium Aviation, a German company that held a successful test flight of the Eagle, its two-seat electric jet at their Munich base this year, announced on Tuesday that it has raised $90 million in a new round of financing. nyti.ms/2eYl2xr


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Boeing Co is refusing to back down from its trade complaint against Bombardier Inc, warning the federal government that Canada's aerospace industry will be one of the main victims if the US-based giant is frozen out of future military contracts. tgam.ca/2wB4aG0

    American negotiators are insisting Canada and Mexico will have to make all the concessions in the overhaul of the North American free-trade agreement while the United States will not give anything up. tgam.ca/2wBl3jT

    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd has agreed to buy Cenovus Energy Inc's Pelican Lake heavy oil operations and other Northern Alberta assets for C$975 million ($787.12 million)in cash. tgam.ca/2wBI4TM

    NATIONAL POST

    Hudson's Bay Co is taking its flagship brand outside of North America for the first time despite a tepid retail environment and ongoing pressure from an activist investor who wants the department store giant to sell off some of its real estate assets. bit.ly/2wBncfw


    Britain

    The Times

    - Acacia Mining is mothballing mining operations at one of its three Tanzanian sites after the country’s export ban left it unable to sell its output. The decision will result in “significant” job losses among the 2,000 staff at the Bulyanhulu mine. bit.ly/2wChF6I

    - C&C Group finally secured a pubs deal, teaming up with the New York-based Proprium Capital Partners to acquire Admiral Taverns for an estimated 220 million pounds ($284.37 million). bit.ly/2wCJWtY

    The Guardian

    - PR agency Bell Pottinger has been expelled from the industry’s trade association after an investigation found its secret campaign to stir up racial tensions in South Africa to be the worst breach of ethics in its history. bit.ly/2wBC389

    The Telegraph

    - Norway’s $1 trillion oil fund has issued a resounding vote of confidence in the UK economy and the long-term prospects for the pound, raising its target for sterling bonds to 8 percent of its global benchmark fund. bit.ly/2wBTiGs

    - The trial of three former Tesco directors accused of fraud in relation to the supermarket's 263 million pound accounting scandal three years ago has been adjourned until Sept. 25. bit.ly/2wCJ1tw

    Sky News

    - Aveva, the engineering software group, will this week unveil a 3 billion-pound-plus merger with the software arm of France’s Schneider Electric. bit.ly/2wC5OWx

    - The U.K. government has selected six locations to pilot a scheme which will see homes and businesses get broadband speeds of 1Gb per second. bit.ly/2wCbxeM

    The Independent

    - Daimler will start ride-sharing shuttles in London later this year, expanding its cooperation with U.S. startup Via Transportation, whose on-demand service racks up 1 million rides a month across New York, Chicago and Washington. ind.pn/2wCqGNd

    - Activity among Britain’s builders slumped to its lowest in a year in August. The Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 51.1, down from 51.9 in July and lower than City analysts’ expectations of 52. ind.pn/2wCHio6

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-05/frontrunning-september-5
     
  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.5.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-5-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/05
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-9517.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/05
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 5, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-5-2017.html

    RR - Tough Love and Hot Prospects 09/05
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-05/tough-love-and-hot-prospects

    TRB - Hot Links: Psychopaths, but the good kind 09/05
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/09/05/hot-links-psychopaths-but-the-good-kind/

    MtM - Greenback Mixed, North Korea and PMIs in Focus 09/05
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/greenback-mixed-north-korea-and-pmis-in.html

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: United Tech Signs Biggest-Ever Aerospace Pact 09/05
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...united-tech-signs-biggest-ever-aerospace-pact
     
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    TVR [#389] 09-05-2017 PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN FEMA-MART H-BOMB CRYPTO-CRASH
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 5, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Stock Market Dive, Russian Gold to China & German Leftists
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 5, 2017
    JUNIUS MALTBY CHANNEL DISCUSSING TODAYS MARKET, RUSSIAN GOLD TO CHINA, AND GERMAN LEFTISTS.
    Article: http://www.lifezette.com/momzette/rig...

    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
    Channel Coin: https://qualitysilverbullion.com/prod...

    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/



     
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    WHY KOREAN TENSIONS SHOULD SOON EASE - effect on Dollar and Precious Metals...

    By: Clive Maund


    -- Published: Tuesday, 5 September 2017

    The tensions centered on the Korean peninsula should soon ease, leading to a rally in the dollar and a (mild) reaction in Precious Metals and other commodities like copper, for reasons that we will consider in this essay.

    There can be no denying that what we have previously referred to as “The Empire” is intent on world domination. The evidence is there for all to see in the form of a vast network of military bases spread across the globe, and a history of invasion of various countries by the Empire in recent years in pursuit of its geopolitical objectives. The economic engine that drives the Empire and supports its imperialistic ambitions is the dollar, whose Reserve Currency status means that infinite quantities of it (or proxy derivatives like Treasuries) can be printed up and swapped for goods and services with any and all countries around the world, and it is this dynamic that supports the formidable US military machine.

    The last Empire that tried to take over the world was Nazi Germany, which recruited Japan to take over the Far East, so that together they became a global axis. As we know this led to an enormous titanic struggle for over 5 years to contain it and defeat it, resulting in immense destruction and loss of life. The reason that Hitler failed was good old fashioned imperial overreach – he didn’t know when to “call it a day” and consolidate his gains, instead he tried to do what has been the undoing of most Empires in the past, take over the entire planet. Actually he got very close to creating a sustainable 3rd Reich, but made several key mistakes. The first was not overrunning Britain while he had the chance, instead he made the fatal mistake of leaving it and starting a war on a second front with Russia, which meant that, in addition to his logistical support being spread too thin, the US was later able to use Britain as an aircraft carrier to bomb Germany back into the Stone Age, which needless to say resulted in its defeat. The second mistake was permitting eastern henchman Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor, and thus bring the US into the war against both Nazi Germany and Japan. Perhaps due to parochial ignorance, Germany and Japan made the catastrophic miscalculation that they could somehow overcome the United States, which at the time was an emerging economic powerhouse. The bombing of Pearl Harbor awoke the sleeping giant and meant the beginning of the end for the Germany – Japan Empire.

    Politicians and other megalomaniacs never change of course, and in the power vacuum that arose after the end of the Cold War, the victors decided to press home their advantage and go for world domination, just as you would expect. The absurdly named “War on Terror” was an invention that provided an excuse to invade countries on their “hit list” and strip citizens at home of their rights under the guise of protecting them – witness the daily fiasco of going through airport security in the US.

    Right now the three most important countries standing in the way of global hegemony by the Empire are China, Russia and Iran. Since China is a major trading partner of the United States and a powerful economy with a highly developed military deterrent it is “the toughest nut to crack” so they have decided to go after Russia first, but as Russia is also heavily armed with nukes, the assault has been and is largely economic, rather than military. In pursuit of this objective they proceeded to collapse the oil price several years ago in an effort to weaken Russia (and Iran) and largely failed, except for the “windfall” collapse of Venezuela of course. They also demonized Russia in their controlled media, portraying it as an aggressor for invading the Crimea, when all Russia was doing was moving to secure its interests in the region after the Empire instigated a coup against the democratically elected government in the Ukraine to install a pro-Empire puppet government on Russia’s doorstep. The portrayal as Russia as an aggressor provided them with the excuse to impose sanctions on Russia, in a further effort to weaken it. The Europeans, who have a lot to lose by antagonizing Russia, in addition to Gas supplies, foolishly went along with this, and have facilitated further provocation of Russia by allowing NATO to conduct military exercises right up against the Russian border.

    The Chinese have been watching the Empire’s relentless efforts to damage and take down Russia with interest, because they know that if Russia goes down, they are next, which is why we have seen China and Russia forging strong economic and military ties in the recent past, and why Korea has just come to the fore in this geopolitical chess game.

    South Korea is the Empire “forward base” in the Far East. Although Japan is a servile US sidekick, it has little appetite for getting involved in conflict with its neighbors and is still pacifist, which is kind of understandable after it got its backside thoroughly kicked and was dragged through the mud at the end of the 2nd World War.

    China is only too well aware of what the Empire has planned for it, which is why it is not going to permit it to overrun North Korea, and thus gain a foothold on the entire Korean peninsula. North Korea itself is a poor insignificant little country, that has somehow managed to develop a relatively sophisticated nuclear deterrent, a happy coincidence for China. In the Western media Kim Jong Un is portrayed as a dangerous fruitcake, but the truth is that he knows only too well that without such a nuclear deterrent he could end up like Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, and China has every interest in making sure that the Empire does not overrun North Korea and become an increasing threat to China. It is therefore considered very probable that the huge strides being made by North Korea with respect to a credible nuclear deterrent are thanks to support from China – without China’s help how would this poor little backward State be able to afford it?

    The fact is that the Empire is being presented with a “fait accompli” – “North Korea now has a credible nuclear deterrent, so what are you going to do about it?” – the answer is nothing, unless they want to start a 3rd World War with China (and Russia). Trump and US Generals can huff and puff about how they are going to come down on North Korea like the proverbial “ton of bricks”, but the reality is that they have been outplayed, and they know it, so this aggressive rhetoric is just face saving posturing for the media, leaving aside the fact that China and Russia have surface hugging supersonic guided missiles that can send US carrier battle groups to the bottom before they even know they are coming.

    So what now? It looks like the Empire is going to have to accept the fact that North Korea has just joined the nuclear club, even if they don’t have the fancy signed and embossed certificate to hang on the wall, and skulk off to content itself with meddling in Pakistan to try to disrupt China’s grand Silk Road project, and keeping the pot boiling in Afghanistan for the same reason. The tension centered on Korea should therefore ease, the dollar rally from its current oversold position, and the Precious Metals and other metals react back somewhat, although the longer-term outlook for them remains excellent.

    There are two ways to stop Empires bent on world domination in their tracks. One is brute force as happened in the 2nd World War, and the other is to choke off their economic power, and unfortunately for this Empire, that is relatively easy to do, since its power rests almost entirely on the dollar being the global Reserve Currency. China and Russia and various other States know this, and are moving towards displacing the dollar as the global Reserve Currency, with the first step in this direction being the amassing of a vast quantity of gold, which at some point can be used to back their currencies, whereupon it will be “bye-bye dollar”. This is the point at which Imperial Reach quickly becomes Imperial Overreach. If the dollar loses its Reserve Currency status, the severely debt-wracked and highly leveraged Empire will quickly implode. This is what makes the next several years so dangerous, because the Empire may decide to try to impose its will by force while it still has the chance to do so, leading to catastrophic consequences, and Larry Edelson of Weiss Research has repeatedly pointed out that there is a confluence of war cycles peaking in 2019 – 2020. Looking on the bright side we know the world is grossly overpopulated, which “unintended consequences” may go a long way towards addressing.

    To conclude: the tensions centered on Korea should now ease as the Empire is forced to accept the new reality that North Korea has joined the nuclear club, and the dollar rally from oversold – Commercial Hedgers have been slashing their short positions, and the Precious Metals (and metals like copper) react back for a while, opening up another opportunity to accumulate the sector before the expected major bullmarket gets underway.

    http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1504627156.php
     
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    Texas Coast Crawls Back to Work as Shipping and Oil Industries Get Back On Track

    September 5, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    Ships enter the Port of Corpus Christi, Aug. 31, 2017, after the Coast Guard reopened the port following Hurricane Harvey. U.S. Coast Guard photo.

    By Gary McWilliams and Daniel Trotta HOUSTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) – Houston residents on Tuesday picked up the pace of their recovery from Hurricane Harvey, returning to schools and offices to help get the nation’s fourth largest city and its vital shipping and oil industries back on track.

    With floodwaters having receded and the Labor Day weekend behind them, many large Texas employers, universities and transit services reopened or began full schedules on Tuesday. But not all of the Houston-area’s 6.6 million residents were in position to go back to work and instead were dealing with waterlogged houses and sodden possessions.

    Daniel Semetko, 60, headed back to his job at a Houston energy company on Tuesday with mixed feelings.

    “I’ve got to get work done but I don’t think it’ll be a productive day,” he said. “I have to be sensitive to people who lost their homes and are there because they need to take care of their jobs.”

    Related: Grounded Drillship Removed from Aransas Pass

    Semetko, who took in a family whose home flooded with some 8 inches (20 cm) of water, said the devastation was made fresh by the piles of debris lining streets on his commute to his office. Harvey first hit Corpus Christi in southern Texas on Aug. 25 and traveled up the coast, with the Houston area especially hit hard. The storm killed more than 60 people, dumped more than 50 inches (127 cm) of rain, damaged 203,000 homes and caused damaged estimated as high as $180 billion.

    Oil refineries, pipelines and shipping channels in the nation’s energy center have begun a gradual return to operations. Late on Monday, Royal Dutch Shell said it was preparing to restart a gasoline unit at its Deer Park, Texas, joint-venture refinery.

    Exxon Mobil, Halliburton and Chevron were among the scores of Houston businesses reopening their doors to office workers. From Corpus Christi to Houston, universities were resuming classes.

    Some places are still out of commission. ConocoPhillips closed its Houston headquarters through Sept. 11. BP’s Houston offices suffered severe flooding and will be unavailable until December, Chief Executive Bob Dudley told Reuters. About 650 of BP’s 6,000 staff in the area are homeless, he said.

    Exxon said its Spring, Texas, campus was unaffected by the heavy rains but employees who need to work remotely are encouraged to do so, spokeswoman Suann Guthrie said.

    Houston’s school district, the nation’s seventh largest, remains closed this week to repair flooded schools. The district has said about 75 of its 275 schools suffered major or extensive flood damage but other school districts in the area were open for class.

    IRMA AT CATEGORY 5
    As Houston picked up the pieces from the devastation of Harvey, a new hurricane threat appeared, this time headed for the Caribbean islands, the U.S. East Coast and Florida.

    Hurricane Irma was upgraded to a powerful Category 5 storm and islands in its path braced for it. The storm was about 270 miles (440 km) east southeast of Antigua on Tuesday morning. Hurricane warnings were issued for Puerto Rico, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Eustatius, the British Virgin Island and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

    Port operations across the Houston area’s oil and gas hub were resuming, although many still had restrictions on vessel draft, according to U.S. Coast Guard updates. Authorities were sending a vessel into Port Arthur on Tuesday to test currents that have prevented its reopening to ship traffic.

    U.S. gasoline prices fell on Tuesday as traders priced in a continued restart of flooded Gulf Coast refineries. Benchmark U.S. gasoline futures fell by about 4 percent, returning to levels last seen before Harvey hit near Corpus Christi, Texas.

    The lifting of an evacuation order in Crosby, about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Houston, may help residents like Paul Mincey, 31, a tugboat engineer who has been kept out of the ranch home he shares with his girlfriend, return to normal.

    “It could be full of snakes for all we know. We have no idea what’s in there,” Mincey said on Monday from aboard a tugboat in the Houston Ship Channel, which he said was polluted by floating railroad ties, trees and trash strewn by the storm.

    The question of how to pay for hurricane recovery became more urgent in Washington after Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Sunday increased his damage estimate to between $150 billion and $180 billion.

    Republicans and Democrats returning to Washington on Tuesday after a month-long break will need to put differences aside in order to approve an aid package. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin challenged Congress to raise the government’s debt limit in order to free up relief spending.

    The U.S. House of Representatives will vote Wednesday on $7.85 billion in emergency relief funds for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Small Business Administration and plans another vote later this month on a separate $6.7 billion sought by President Donald Trump. (Reporting by Gary McWilliams and Catherine Ngai; additional reporting by Ron Bousso.; Editing by Bill Trott)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/texas-coast-cra...hipping-and-oil-industries-get-back-on-track/
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1% Again
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold gained $13.40 to as high as $1339.10 in holiday-thinned trade on Monday before it dropped back to $1326.60 in London today, but it then rallied back higher in New York and ended near its late session high of $1344.20 with a gain of 1.15% from last Friday’s close. Silver climbed to as high as $18.001 and ended with a gain of 1.07%.
     
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    Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 9 5 2017
    Ira Epstein



    Published on Sep 5, 2017
     
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    Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 9 5 2017
    Ira Epstein



    Published on Sep 5, 2017
    Ira Epstein reviews the days trading in the agriculture markets.
     
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    Ira Epstein's Metals Video 9 5 2017
    Ira Epstein



    Published on Sep 5, 2017

     
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    TVR [#390] 09-05-2017 END OF DAY REPORT SO FAR SO GOOD FOR METALS
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 5, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Former Tennessee lawmaker given 21 years in prison for stealing $21million from 400 people in a gold and silver Ponzi scheme he ran through a company advertised on Christian TV
    • Larry Bates was ordered to pay the $21million he and his family stole from customers
    • He promoted the coin buying and selling business on Christian radio and television programs
    • The 73-year-old was found guilty along with his two sons and daughter-in-law of mail and wire fraud
    • The scheme lasted from 2002 to 2013 causing more than 400 people to lose their money
    • The Bates used the funds to buy a 10,000 square-foot property in Tennessee
    • More than 45 witnesses testifies against Bates and his family


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4855334/Former-lawmaker-sentenced-21-years-coin-selling-scheme.html#ixzz4rt3MoYAf
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Maersk and Partners to Deploy Blockchain-Based Marine Insurance Platform in January

    September 5, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    Photo credit: Maersk

    By Jemima Kelly LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) – Consultancy EY, data security firm Guardtime, Microsoft and ship operator Maersk have joined to build a blockchain-based marine insurance platform that will be the first real-world use of the nascent technology in the shipping industry.

    EY and Guardtime said the platform had already been built and would be deployed in January, when A.P. Moller-Maersk , which was part of a 20-week trial of the new platform, would start using it for some areas of its business, along with insurers MS Amlin and XL Catlin.

    A near decade-long slump in segments of the global shipping industry has led many companies to seek ways to cut costs and curb pressures on working capital.

    The container shipping sector – which Maersk dominates – has been among the worst-hit, due to an oversupply of vessels and worries over global demand, pushing lines to find greater cost efficiencies.

    Shaun Crawford, EY’s global insurance leader, said the 400-year-old marine insurance sector was one of the most inefficient areas of the insurance industry. Shipping companies pay $30 billion in premiums paid annually.

    Blockchain works as a tamper-proof database that is shared and updated across a network in real time. It can automatically process and settle transactions via so-called “smart contracts” using computer algorithms, with no need for third-party verification.

    It has been touted as a potentially revolutionary technology in many fields including financial services and healthcare. But it has so far not been used much outside cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, where the technology originates.

    “The significance of this from my perspective is this is the first real enterprise use-case for blockchain,” said Mike Gault, chief executive of Guardtime, an Amsterdam-based company.

    Gault said the blockchain was “absolutely essential” for this platform to function, as it was able to guarantee that all parties – from shipping companies to brokers, insurers and other suppliers – had access to the same database, which could be integrated into insurance contracts.

    “Insurance transactions are currently far too tedious and frictional,” said Maersk’s head of risk and insurance, Lars Henneberg, in a statement. “Blockchain technology has the potential to facilitate the desired development that is long overdue.”

    The platform is built on Microsoft’s Azure cloud-based technology.

    International insurance industry standards body ACORD and advisory firm Willis Towers Watson also collaborated on building the platform. (Reporting by Jemima Kelly; Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

    (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

    http://gcaptain.com/maersk-partners-deploy-blockchain-based-marine-insurance-platform-january/
     
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    Cruise Stocks Sink Ahead Of Irma

    September 5, 2017 by Bloomberg


    By Christopher Palmeri (Bloomberg) Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line all tumbled in Tuesday trading as Hurricane Irma threatened to do to the hub of the cruise industry what Harvey did to the nation’s oil and gas capital last week.

    Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm, is on a path that could take it through the heart of the Caribbean, bringing winds of as high as 180 miles per hour to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Haiti before making landfall this weekend in Florida. The Caribbean accounts for 35 percent of the cruise industry’s global, ocean-going capacity, and all three of the largest carriers are headquartered in Miami. Among the countries potentially hit by the storm is Cuba, a new and fast-growing market for U.S. cruises.

    Related Book: Isaac’s Storm – A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History by Erik Larson

    Cruise line operators are monitoring the storm, canceling voyages that haven’t left port and rerouting other ships to avoid stops at islands that may be affected. A seven-day cruise on the Carnival Glory that left Miami on Saturday, for example, has canceled stops in St. Thomas; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and the Turks and Caicos in favor of western Caribbean destinations such as Mexico and Belize. Irma is currently about 200 miles east of the island of Antigua.

    Carnival shares fell 3.1 percent to $66.99 in New York, the worst performance this year. Royal Caribbean was down 4.2 percent at the close, and Norwegian slid 3.2 percent.

    Hurricane Harvey caused widespread damage when it hit the Houston area Aug. 25, taking almost a fifth of U.S. oil refining capacity offline. Cruise lines redirected some voyages and kept some ships at sea to avoid that storm. The storm activity has contributed to a softening of demand for cruises in August, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday.

    The operators could cancel most if not all of this week’s Caribbean cruises, Instinet analyst Harry Curtis said in a research note. In a worst-case scenario, the hurricane could damage port infrastructure at many destinations. Earnings this quarter could be crimped as much as 10 cents a share for Royal Caribbean and 5 cents apiece for Carnival and Norwegian, Curtis said.

    Royal Caribbean canceled two sailings to the Bahamas scheduled to depart Friday. The company is reimbursing passengers for their fares and giving them a 25 percent credit toward future bookings. More updates on cruise itinerary changes are expected Tuesday at 6 p.m. New York time, the company said.

    Carnival, the world’s largest carrier, is also prepping its call center and support staff for a possible landfall in Florida.

    “Fingers crossed for the storm to take a sharp right hand turn north,” Carnival spokeswoman Jennifer De La Cruz said in an email.

    ©2017 Bloomberg News

    Filed Under: Finance, WeatherTagged With: carnival, hurricane irma, Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean

    http://gcaptain.com/cruise-stocks-sink-ahead-irma/
     
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    Oil Markets Dip As Irma Approaches United States

    September 5, 2017 by Reuters

    [​IMG]
    VLCC Tanker departs before the approach of a tropical storm.
    Henning Gloystein (Reuters) – Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as crude demand remained subdued on the back of refinery closures following Hurricane Harvey which hit the U.S. Gulf coast 10 days ago.

    Market focus was also being drawn to Hurricane Irma, a record Category 5 storm, which is barreling towards important shipping lanes in the Caribbean.

    Related Book: Isaac’s Storm – A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History by Erik Larson

    Although many refineries and pipelines which were knocked out by Harvey are now in the process of restarting, analysts say it will take some time before the U.S. petroleum industry is back to full crude processing capacity.

    As of Tuesday, about 3.8 million barrels of daily refining capacity, or about 20 percent, was shut, though a number of the refineries in that group were in the process of restarting. Several others, including Marathon’s Galveston Bay and Citgo’s Corpus Christi refineries, were running at reduced rates, according to company reports and Reuters estimates.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures Clc1 were at $48.63 barrel at 0048 GMT, 3 cents below their last settlement.

    In international oil markets, Brent crude futures LCOc1 dipped 19 cents to $53.19 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma is heading for the Caribbean islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and parts of Cuba.

    “With another hurricane threatening to hit the U.S. coast, traders still remain cautious,” ANZ bank said on Wednesday.

    “Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane … Irma is forecast to remain a powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

    There is another tropical storm on Irma’s heels in the Atlantic, and another one active in the Gulf of Mexico.

    © 2017 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.

    http://gcaptain.com/oil-markets-dip-irma-approaches-united-states/
     
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    Global Stocks Slide As Geopolitical Headwinds, Hurricanes Grow

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 6, 2017 7:04 AM


    Global risk sentiment remained gloomy coming into Wednesday, with global European and Asian stocks sliding on growing concerns about North Korea and political inaction in the US, another hurricane bearing down on the US and the American debt ceiling looming. Industrial metals dropped as the latest Chinese commodity bubble appears to have peaked. Shortly before 6am a sharp risk-off move across asset classes was blamed on an erroneous North Korea earthquake tweet by the British Geological Survey.

    [​IMG]

    In European markets, almost every sector of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated after equities slid from Hong Kong to Sydney as traders prepared for potential news of intercontinental ballistic missile launch by Pyongyang. U.S. stock futures fluctuated, and the dollar edged lower with Treasuries a day after dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials sparked a bond surge. The Bloomberg Commodity Index retreated from the highest since April even as crude oil extended a rally.

    “The 10 basis point fall in Treasury yields is clearly not something the European market can ignore,” said Mizuho rates strategist Antoine Bouvet. “The market’s also taking a bit of view on what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do next.”

    Asia was also mostly in the red, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index falling 0.5% and Tokyo's Nikkei hitting a four-month low closing down 0.1%. South Korea's KOSPI ended down 0.3% at a near four-week low as did Australia’s ASX. The Hang Seng Index declined 0.5% in Hong Kong on low volumes and China’s equity benchmarks were also lower.

    According to Bloomberg the case for a continued risk-off tone was supported by a lack of consensus among the U.S., Russia and China on how to pressure Kim Jong Un to abandon his nuclear ambitions. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected U.S. calls for more sanctions, echoing China’s resistance to more punitive measures. Still, despite the sharply lower "risk off" move in yields, equities refuse to budge and remain just shy of all time highs.

    [​IMG]


    The euro rose for a third day, hitting 1.1950 again before paring gains, and shrugged off an unexpected decline in German factory orders which unexpectedly fell for the first time since April, declining 0.7% MoM, missing expectations of a 0.2% increase.

    [​IMG]

    The euro was also stable ahead of the ECB announcement due in just over 24 hours: tomorrow Mario Draghi is expected to give more clarity on winding down the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program when he speaks after a policy decision on Thursday, even as he looks for ways to keep the common currency below 1.20.

    Speaking of the Euro, in currency trading, the dollar was on the backfoot as geopolitical concerns continued to support the yen; as noted previously a delayed Twitter posting from the British Geological Survey on a North Korea earthquake caused a brief spike in the yen before investors realized it was a reference to last week’s nuclear tests. The Canadian dollar was steady ahead of BOC’s review, with economists forecasting policy makers to be on hold. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held its 0.3 percent loss from Tuesday after Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the U.S. central bank needs to pay careful attention to underlying inflation before raising interest rates again, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said rate increases may be “doing real harm” to the economy.

    “The broad-based theme appears to be justifiable caution despite the USD weakness stemming from dovish remarks from Brainard building on U.S. debt ceiling risks that have plunged UST yields, and correspondingly the USD,” said Vishu Varathan, Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “But the KRW is the dead give-away that risk aversion appears to be multi-faceted, and not a creature confined to the USD.”

    In Asia, most emerging currencies (with the notable exception of the "safe trade" Yen) fell as concern over any potential fresh provocations from North Korea dominated sentiment, offsetting the impact of dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The won led losses, while Malaysia’s ringgit bucked the trend after oil prices jumped Tuesday.

    The MSCI EM Asia Index of shares fell while bonds mostly rose. Among the Group-of-10 currencies, the yen rose against the dollar for a third day, while the Aussie erased gains after second-quarter economic growth missed forecasts.

    U.S. Treasuries fell after 10-year yields tumbled to the lowest this year; Hurricane Irma was on a path that may bring it ashore in Florida and destroy so much property that damages may surpass Hurricane Katrina. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 2.08%. Germany’s 10-year yield also gained two basis points to 0.35% while Britain’s 10-year gilt dipped less than one basis point to 1.026%.

    There was some good news for oil bulls with Brent and WTI continuing their recent rally with futures in New York topping $49/bbl for 1st time since Aug 14. Brent also extends gains, hitting day-high $54/bbl, highest since May 25. Brent volume spiked to day-highs at 10:55am London time as prices broke through Tuesday highs. Gold gained less than 0.05 percent to $1,340.08 an ounce. The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined 0.1 percent to 85.29, the first retreat in a week.

    Looking ahead, we get MBA mortgage applications, trade balance, Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacture compositethe, while the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book. Hurricane Irma, a strong Category 5 storm, could make landfall in Florida as early as this weekend.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • Old earthquake reports shake markets
    • AUD/USD initially reclaimed 0.8000 before moving back below the level following domestic Q2 GDP numbers
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, BoC rate decision and APIs
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.01% to 2,460.00
    • MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 160.22
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan 0.4% to 529.28
    • Nikkei down 0.1% to 19,357.97
    • Topix up 0.08% to 1,592.00
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 27,613.76
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 3,385.39
    • Sensex down 0.4% to 31,697.02
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,689.73
    • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,319.82
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 372.16
    • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.345%
    • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1949
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 1.707%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 1.558%
    • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $53.44/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.09% to $1,338.49
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.12
    Top Overnight News
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin again rejected U.S. calls for new sanctions against North Korea after its sixth and most powerful nuclear test, echoing China’s resistance to more punitive measures to pressure Pyongyang into abandoning its atomic and missile programs
    • North Korea: Putin and South Korean President pledge to continue diplomatic efforts
    • Fed’s Kaplan: repeats Fed should be patient on rates, may still hike in 2017 but must see how inflation plays out
    • Politico: Trump is continuing to push for lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% despite opposition within his own party, according to people familiar
    • Hurricane Irma: classed as extremely dangerous major hurricane; increasing chance of direct impacts on Florida, according to the NHC
    • German Aug. Factory Orders m/m: -0.7% vs +0.2% est.
    • Merkel bloc lead grows as SPD loses support in Forsa poll
    • The ECB will raise its 2017 GDP and possibly its 2018 GDP forecasts when it releases new macroeconomic projections on Sept. 7, according to a Bloomberg survey
    • German factory orders fell in July ahead of general elections; adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, declined 0.7% in July after a revised gain of 0.9% in June
    • President Donald Trump’s decision to end an Obama-era program preventing the deportation of immigrants illegally brought to the U.S. as children risks a deep wedge between the Republican Party’s leaders and its conservative base ahead of next year’s congressional elections
    • U.K. faces ‘break it, own it’ problem on Brexit, Irish say
    Asia stock indices traded with a negative tone following the losses on Wall St. where markets reacted to the North Korean concerns, while financials led the selling amid declining yields and with insurers reeling from Harvey and the approaching Irma. This pressured ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%), as financials in the region mirrored the underperformance in their US counterparts, while a slight miss in Australian GDP added to the sombre tone. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) also conformed to the downbeat sentiment with participants unimpressed by the PBoC’s resumption of open market operations from a 4-day hiatus, as this still resulted to a net daily drain of CNY 120bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally high with slight support seen from the risk averse tone, while the BoJ were also in the market although this was for a relatively reserved amount. PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos, for a net daily drain of CNY 120bln vs. Prev. CNY 70bln drain. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5311 (Prev. 6.5370)

    Top Asian News
    • North Korea Threat Hits Hong Kong Stocks Even Harder Than Seoul
    • Onshore Chinese Stocks Burst Into Life as Demand Surges
    • Apple Refusal to Approve India Spam App Antagonizes Regulator
    • Fingerprint Drops; UBS Cuts to Sell, Notes Chinese OEM Risk
    • Noble Default-Swap Verdict in Play as Test of ISDA System
    • Japan Equity Movers: Recruit, Optex, Iriso, Toshiba, CyberAgent
    European bourses have been impacted by the risk off tone from American and Asian trade with 9/10 Stoxx 600 sectors trading
    in the red. Much anticipation is set to be on tomorrow’s ECB decision, with range bound trade evident across EU markets. Stock
    specific news sees UK homebuilders underperforming, with Barratt Developments down 3.4%, as some analysts point towards the
    company’s poor outlook. Elsewhere sees insurance names underperform amid the hurricane concerns growing across the US. Consolidation has been the theme as we approach Draghi tomorrow; with bunds interested in a gap fill, trading around
    yesterday’s low. The lack of direction shows in EZ/UK 10y yields, largely unchanged, as gilts await any French Brexit news or any
    further North Korean developments.

    The Spanish German spread is wider by 2.20 bps, ahead of supply tomorrow, supported by The Catalan Speaker's Committee
    voting 5-2 in favour of debating the referendum bill in Catalan parliament.

    Germany sold EUR 2.436bln vs. Exp. EUR 3bln 0.0% 2022 Bobl with a b/c 1.6 (Prev. 1.0), average yield -0.36% (Prev. -0.26%)
    and retention 18.8% (Prev. 24.5%)

    Top European News
    • German Factory Orders Fell in July Ahead of General Elections
    • Hungary, Slovakia Lose Refugee Legal Case in Deepening EU Rift
    • Iceland Plans to Shut the Door on Chinese Investors, Again
    • Nova Development in London Voted Britain’s Worst New Building
    • Shell Seeks to Boost LNG Demand in Order to Build New Plants
    • Panmure Gordon Hires Ex-UBS Research Boss to Prepare For MiFID
    • Deutsche Bank CEO Highlights Asset Bubbles on Excess Cheap Money
    In currencies, the Australian GDP figure overnight saw AUD/USD fall back below the 0.8 handle that was claimed in trade yesterday.

    AUD/NZD also follows the recent Aussie weakness and looks back toward the overnight low; with the previous resistance around
    1.1 likely to be a target for bears.

    USD/JPY has been the pair to watch, as Japanese buying interest has been touted around the 108.50 level, which has held
    throughout the session. Further support is likely around these levels with YTD lows ahead of 108.

    Australian GDP (Q2) Q/Q 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.3%). (Newswires)

    Australian GDP (Q2) Y/Y 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%)

    In commodities, the hurricane concerns in the US have led to the continued bid in oil markets, as WTI looks toward USD 49.00/bbl. Oil trade in Asia has led to snapping up crude cargoes from the US after the closures, with possibly more closures inevitable.

    Russia Energy Minister Novak stated OPEC and Russia may extend output cap deal if needed, while he also sees oil prices in
    2018 at range between USD 45-55/bbl. (Newswires)

    Motiva's Port Arthur (603K BPD) is expected to initially return to 40% production by the end of this weekend. (Newswires)
    Libya's Sharara oil field re-opens after a 2-week pipeline blockage, according to sources. (Newswires)

    Looking at the day ahead, we get the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the Fed’s Beige book, trade balance and final
    Markit services and composite PMIs are also due. Away from the data, UK PM Theresa May will face opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in Parliament and the IMF’s managing director Lagarde will speak at a conference in Korea. Elsewhere, President Trump will also meet House Speaker Ryan, Senate Leader McConnell and a few others to discuss the upcoming debt
    ceiling.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.3%
    • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $44.7b deficit, prior $43.6b deficit
    • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 56.9, prior 56.9; US Composite PMI, prior 56
    • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 55.6, prior 53.9
    • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Tough to know where to start this morning following a surprisingly frantic day for markets yesterday. To be honest we’re struggling to pinpoint the root cause of the price action which saw 10y Treasury yields plummet back towards levels last seen on 9th November 2016 and flirt with a 1% handle and Gold rally to the highest since September 2016.

    Instead it feels like you could take your pick from any combination of the following catalysts; (1) the latest escalation in rhetoric over the North Korea nuclear test, (2) some fairly dovish Fedspeak, (3) ongoing concerns about the looming debt ceiling, (4) the decision to end the DACA program, and (5) the threat of Hurricane Irma which has resulted in Florida announcing a state of emergency and adding to recent adverse weather events. That’s not to exclude Brexit, NAFTA discussions and the ongoing Trump-Russia investigation as others bubbling away in the background at the moment.

    Before we look at some of those in more detail, in terms of markets and following the Labour Day holiday on Monday, the US initially walked back in and the early move was a reasonably modest risk-off one and certainly nothing that appeared out of the ordinary. However things quickly escalated from the late afternoon. At first it was the big rally for US Treasuries which stole the limelight. 10y Treasuries touched a new YTD low of 2.053% before ending at 2.060% and down 10.7bps on the day. That was strongest session since March 15th. 5y and 30y Treasuries were both 10bps lower, while the 2y10y spread hit just 77bps and the lowest since August 2016. Fed rate hike expectations were hit and December hike odds edged below 30%. Meanwhile Gold rallied +0.44% to $1339.7/oz and the usual safe havens like the Yen (+0.81%) and Swiss Franc (+0.30%) were bid up. In contrast, the S&P 500 (-0.76%) fell by the most since mid-August and ended a six-day winning streak. The Dow also closed -1.07% and the Nasdaq -0.93% while the VIX jumped over 20%. The sector moves told a story itself with Insurers tumbling in the wake of the Hurricane Irma threat (S&P Insurance sector down -2.07%) and Banks selling-off reflecting the move for bonds (S&P Banks sector down -2.38% and the most since May). On the other hand Energy stocks were one of the few sectors to enjoy a decent day after WTI Oil rallied +2.90% which makes the move for rates even more impressive. It’s worth noting also that a bumper day for US IG primary issuance seemed to have little side effect while the Treasury’s four-week T-bill auction – a decent barometer for the debt ceiling concerns - saw investors demand the highest yield since September 2008 at 1.30% and yields on existing T-bills maturing on October 5th and 12th jump by more than 4bps post the auction.

    This morning in Asia, markets have followed the lead from US and are all in the red as we type. The Nikkei (-0.31%), Kospi (-0.50%), ASX 200 (-0.55%), Shanghai Comp (-0.30%) and Hang Seng (-1.05%) are all down. It’s worth noting that Chinese banks are weaker, likely impacted by one Republican Congressman calling out Bank of China as a potential sanction target and then Treasury Secretary Mnuchin saying punishing specific entities is an option. Elsewhere, 10y Treasuries are a shade weaker this morning (+0.9bps) along with US equity futures.

    Back to some of those catalysts we highlighted at the top. Starting with North Korea, the most notable development yesterday was President Trump tweeting that he was allowing Japan and South Korea to “buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the US” while South Korean newswires also suggested that North Korea was preparing a missile launch before Saturday. At the same time Russia President Vladimir Putin rejected calls for new sanctions on North Korea as proposed by Trump signalling some disconnect between world leaders on the appropriate path to take.

    Staying with politics, the news yesterday that the Trump administration had controversially agreed to end the DACA program was met with a chorus of criticism from Chief Executives around the world. There was also some suggestion that the decision could throw something of a curve ball into GOP efforts to raise the debt limit should Democrats demand a legislative solution to DACA to perhaps link with a debt limit hike. That remains to be seen however. Meanwhile over at the Fed the most noteworthy comments came from Fed Governor Brainard. She said in a speech in New York that “my own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target”. She also said that “I am concerned that the recent low readings for inflation may be driven by depressed underlying inflation, which would imply a more persistent shortfall in inflation from our objective”. She made mention of there being a persistent shortfall from the Fed’s inflation target going back 5 years and also suggested that trend inflation may have moved lower.

    In fairness, it is no secret that Brainard is a well-known dove but the comments still seemed to catch the market out. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari followed up with some fairly dovish comments of his own later on noting that “It’s very possible that our rate hikes over the past 18 months are leading to slower job growth, leaving more people on the sidelines, leading to lower wage growth, and leading to lower inflation and inflation expectations.”

    Closer to home the big news last night was the Guardian leaking that Britain will end the free movement of labour immediately after Brexit and bring in restrictions to deter all but highly-skilled EU workers. This came under the detailed proposals set out in an 82-page Home Office Proposal which for the first time detailed how the UK intends to approach the sensitive immigration issue. One has to imagine that this would not be taken well in Brussels and lends some weight to the hard Brexit case again. Whether or not this overshadows a planned speech by PM May later this month remains to be seen but it’ll be worth watching the EU reaction in the coming days.

    Over in Italy, it’s worth noting an FT article highlighting that leading populist parties are toning down their anti-EU rhetoric ahead of next year’s election. Luigi Di Maio, the candidate from the leading Five Star movement party said the party’s call for a referendum on Italy’s euro membership would only be a “last resort” and a bargaining chip to force a relaxation in EU fiscal rules. Similarly, the candidate from the Northern league party noted that it wants to be prepared for a collapse of the Euro, but not “blow up the EU monetary system”.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, factory orders for July fell -3.3% mom, but were in line with expectations. The final reading for the headline July durable goods orders print was worse than expected, at -6.8% mom (vs. -2.9% expected), but core durable goods rose +0.6% mom, slightly above last month and core capital goods orders also rose +1.2% mom (vs. +1.0% previously).

    Back in Europe, the final Eurozone service sector PMI for August came in at 54.7 (vs. 54.9 previously), with the revision mainly due to a -0.6pt revision in the French PMI to 54.9, which is the lowest reading since January. After the manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 57.4, the final reading for the Eurozone’s composite PMI was 55.7, unchanged versus July. DB’s Sidorov noted that the broad picture combines a gradual moderation in the services sector from strong levels, offset by new highs and increased capacity constraints in the manufacturing sector. Overall, the readings are still consistent with annual GDP growth of 2.5% for the Euro area. I n the UK, the service PMI for August fell 0.6pts to an 11-month low of 53.2 (vs. 53.5 expected), but the composite PMI was in line at 54.0, which points to a continuation of GDP growth at the 1.7% yoy rate recorded in 2Q.

    Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s July factory orders will be out early in the morning (+0.2% mom and +5.8% yoy expected). Then we have the Italian retail sales for July. Over in the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the Fed’s Beige book, trade balance and final Markit services and composite PMIs are also due. Away from the data, UK PM Theresa May will face opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in Parliament and the IMF’s managing director Lagarde will speak at a conference in Korea. Elsewhere, President Trump will also meet House Speaker Ryan, Senate Leader McConnell and a few others to discuss the upcoming debt ceiling.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-06/global-stocks-slide-geopolitical-headwinds-hurricanes-grow
     
  22. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 6

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 6, 2017 7:52 AM

    • Hurricane Irma makes landfall in the Caribbean (Reuters)
    • Social and Economic Polarization in U.S. Worsens, Poll Finds (WSJ)
    • Trump Risks GOP Civil War Pushing Congress for ‘Dreamer’ Bill (BBG)
    • Michael R. Bloomberg: Trump’s DACA Failure Is Congress’s Opportunity (BBG)
    • Array of Threats Stir Up Markets (WSJ)
    • Draghi's Claim of QE Flexibility Is Attracting Doubters (BBG)
    • Moon Seeks Putin’s Help, Warns of ‘Uncontrollable’ North Korea (Bloomberg)
    • Moscow, Seoul closer on North Korea after their leaders meet: RIA cites Kremlin (Reuters)
    • FBI Says 1MDB Stolen Funds Witnesses Are Scared to Talk (BBG)
    • Benzene Detected in Houston After Refinery Is Damaged (WSJ)
    • Top EU court rules eastern states must take refugees (Reuters)
    • Poland's stance on migrants unchanged despite EU court ruling: PM (Reuters)
    • EU threatens Hungary, Poland with fines if refuse refugees (Reuters)
    • NYC Landlords That Can’t Find Buyers Turn to Borrowing Instead (BBG)
    • Putin says sanctions, pressure alone won't resolve North Korea crisis (Reuters)
    • Newspapers Find Their True Value in Real Estate, Not Publishing (BBG)
    • Goldman Sachs wanted Boeing to bid on airplane parts maker (Post)
    • Investment Gurus Counsel Catching Reform Tailwinds in Latin America (BBG)
    • Over half of Japan's regional banks losing money on core businesses (Reuters)
    • American Express Hunts Millennials With No-Fee Delta Credit Card (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Boeing Co on Tuesday raised objections about United Technologies Corp's proposed takeover of Rockwell Collins Inc, threatening to drop some contracts with the suppliers if the merger undermines competition in the aerospace supply chain. on.wsj.com/2eD0g5C

    - President Donald Trump pressed harder on potential military options in North Korea, offering billions of dollars in new American military equipment to allies in Asia and saying South Korea should use bigger conventional payloads on its missiles as deterrence. on.wsj.com/2eDNX9u

    - Fabio Porfirio Lobo, son of former Honduran president Porfirio Lobo, was sentenced to 24 years in prison Tuesday for conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S. on.wsj.com/2eEjw2P

    - On Tuesday, Hurricane Irma grew to become one of the most powerful storms ever recorded over the Atlantic Ocean, raising severe threats to islands in the Caribbean while prompting evacuations in Florida and disrupting air and sea travel. on.wsj.com/2eDlL6J

    - Trump on Tuesday urged lawmakers to formulate broad immigration legislation by March as he would effectively end a program that protects undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children. on.wsj.com/2eDLTy6

    - U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley on Tuesday laid out a path for the White House to declare that Iran isn't complying with the 2015 nuclear deal. on.wsj.com/2eDPbl0

    - Senate GOP leaders signaled Tuesday they will tie an increase in the nation's borrowing limit to an aid package for victims of Tropical Storm Harvey, a move that could boost the debt-limit legislation's chances of passage ahead of a deadline this month. on.wsj.com/2eDPRXD

    FT

    * Britain will end the free movement of labour immediately after Brexit and introduce measures to drive down the number of lower-skilled EU migrants, a leaked government document published by the Guardian newspaper said on Tuesday.

    * Lego announced a 5-percent decline in mid-year revenue a month after abruptly removing its chief executive, suggesting it is facing its biggest test since flirting with bankruptcy in the early 2000s.

    * Boeing Co warned on Tuesday that it will oppose United Technologies Corp’s $30-billion plan to buy avionics maker Rockwell Collins Inc.

    NYT

    - The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement sputtered forward on Tuesday as officials from the United States, Canada and Mexico concluded their second round of talks with plenty of pleasantries but little major progress to announce. nyti.ms/2wF7AG5

    - Lego, the toy company said on Tuesday that it would cut 1,400 jobs after earnings showed its revenue and profit both fell in the first half of the year. The results come as Lego faces an increasingly competitive landscape. More children use mobile devices for entertainment, leaving Lego to battle not just its traditional rivals like Mattel Inc and Hasbro Inc. nyti.ms/2wEkV3g

    - Europe's human rights court ruled on Tuesday that companies can monitor their employees' email if they are notified in advance, giving shape to a rapidly evolving area of the law at the intersection of technology, privacy and workers' rights. nyti.ms/2x9Ktqo

    - President Trump's decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, created by President Obama to allow children who entered the United States illegally to remain the country, spurred reactions through the business community — many of them opposed to the rollback of protections. nyti.ms/2eISZoC

    - Rovio Entertainment Ltd, the Finnish mobile games and animation studio is planning an initial public offering that could value the company at roughly $2 billion, in a test of whether investors will find favor in a single franchise and whether the business can evolve. nyti.ms/2x9zgpL

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    The Canadian government is looking into buying second-hand fighter jets in Australia - instead of a new fleet of 18 Super Hornets - as it tries to force Boeing Co to drop its trade dispute against Bombardier Inc. tgam.ca/2w6uCnA

    Mexico's economy minister is vowing that the renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement will start to show results when talks move to Ottawa at the end of this month, as the three countries work to knock off the easiest items on the agenda. tgam.ca/2w66CRi

    French video-game publisher Ubisoft Entertainment SA is raising its bet on Quebec, unveiling plans to invest another C$780 million ($630.15 million) and create 1,000 jobs in the province over the next decade amid persistent criticism over the tax breaks the company receives. tgam.ca/2w69fmq

    NATIONAL POST

    Under pressure to sell off assets and cut down its debt, Cenovus Energy Inc announced a C$975 million sale of a heavy oil property, but analysts say it may still be difficult for the company to hit its divestiture target. bit.ly/2w68860

    Britain

    The Times

    - The North Sea oil industry must "earn its right to grow", Royal Dutch Shell PLC warned yesterday as an industry report from Oil & Gas UK, said that more capital investment was urgently needed to prevent a steep drop in production. bit.ly/2x95SzU

    - One of the world's most "powerful" aerospace parts companies has been formed with the $30 billion takeover of Rockwell Collins Inc by United Technologies Corp . bit.ly/2x9dH94

    The Guardian

    - UK PR firm Bell Pottinger is facing a fight for survival as a string of clients and senior staff quit in the wake of a scandal over its secret campaign to stir up racial tensions in South Africa. bit.ly/2x99y4V

    - Business leaders have blamed the uncertainty created by Britain's vote to leave the European Union for the slowest pace of output growth in the services sector for almost a year. bit.ly/2x8FvtR

    The Telegraph

    - The BBC will launch a salary review of presenters and rank-and-file staff in an attempt to quell anger sparked over the corporation's gender pay gap. bit.ly/2x8AUrI

    - Lego is shedding 1,400 staff as a decade long-run of sales growth ends after expansion failed to deliver expected sales growth. bit.ly/2x9bES6

    Sky News

    - The Communications Workers Union is to ballot more than 100,000 of its members working for Royal Mail PLC over industrial action. bit.ly/2x8ZLeZ

    - Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable has demanded the government act to protect UK firms from foreign takeovers that are not in the public interest in the wake of the 3 billion pound ($3.91 billion) merger between Aveva Group PLC and Schneider Electric SE. bit.ly/2x8FxCa

    The Independent

    - The Bank of England has reached an agreement with its striking workers over pay. Unite, the union representing the bank's staff, said its members had voted to accept a revised offer. ind.pn/2x9nufi

    - Britain's economic model is "broken" and failing to generate rising prosperity for most of the UK population, according to a report by the IPPR's Commission on Economic Justice. ind.pn/2x9xmFy

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-06/frontrunning-september-6
     
  23. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.6.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-6-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/06
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-9617.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/06
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 6, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-6-2017.html

    TRB - Hot Links: The Return of Stevie 09/06
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/09/06/hot-links-the-return-of-stevie/

    MtM - Wake Me up when September Ends 09/06
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/wake-me-up-when-september-ends.html

    RR - Big Sticks, Robo Advisers and Stocking Up 09/06
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-06/big-sticks-robo-advisers-and-stocking-up

    FTE - Hurricane Harvey’s Impact — And How It Compares To Other Storms 09/06
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-harveys-impact-and-how-it-compares-to-other-storms/

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: North Korean Bluster, New U.S. Hurricane Keep Global Investors On Edge 09/06
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...-new-u-s-hurricane-keep-global-investors-edge
     
  24. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    The Empire Strikes Back – At Bitcoin
    By: John Rubino
    The above raises two big questions. First, how will cryptocurrencies fare in a world of increasingly strict and complex regulations? Second, what kinds of assets stand to benefit if cryptocurrencies cease to function as “digital gold”? The first question is a tough one, because it involves the interplay of governments, revolutionary tech and free markets, which means pretty much anything is possible. The second, though, is easier: If digital gold falters, real gold wins.
     
  25. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Edge Lower as Dollar Rebounds
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold chopped near unchanged in Asia and London before it fell back to $1332 in midafternoon New York trade and then bounced back higher into the close, but it still ended with a loss of 0.53%. Silver slipped to as low as $17.809 and ended with a loss of 0.17%.
     
  26. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    TVR [#391] 09-07-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: HUBBA BUBBA BUBBLE
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 6, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  30. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    All Eyes On Draghi: Futures Flat, Euro Surges, Dollar Slides; Yuan Breaches 6.50

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 7, 2017 6:56 AM


    S&P futures are flat, still spooked by the WSJ's report that Gary Cohn will not be the next Fed chair, while both European stocks and Asian shares gain in a overnight session on edge in which everyone is looking forward to today's main risk event: the ECB meeting and Draghi press conference due in under two hours. The dollar continued to weaken against most G-10 peers as tensions over North Korea, concerns over Stan Fischer's resignation and the increasingly cloudy Fed outlook outweighed positive sentiment from the US debt ceiling extension.

    Summarizing the traders' plight, as one big bank puts it this morning, "markets don’t know where to look" – between unexpected announcements from the Fed, surprise hikes, US political developments and yet more last minute ECB sources, "there’s a sense of manic markets", guaranteeing continued choppiness and headline trading.

    Sentiment yesterday was defined by President Donald Trump’s surprising deal with Democrats in Congress to raise the U.S. debt limit and provide government funding until Dec. 15, embracing his political adversaries and blindsiding fellow Republicans in a rare bipartisan accord. There was some disappointment the deal had been so short term. “The deadline on the debt ceiling has been extended just by three months so it will come back to haunt markets again later this year. Still, markets liked it as we don’t have to worry about it for now,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management. Traders also remain alert to a potential escalation of North Korea risks amid concerns Pyongyang may fire a ballistic missile. Trump said that military action against the country wasn’t his first choice as South Korea moved to bolster its missile shield. Meanwhile, Fischer’s early departure, effective next month, adds to uncertainty about Fed leadership, given that Janet Yellen’s term as chair expires early next year.

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3% as a fifth day of gains in auto stocks helped German shares outperform a sluggish open for European equities with banks under pressure before the much-awaited ECB meeting, while miners declined as the rally in industrial metals stalled. Europe is on edge ahead of ECB President Mario Draghi who is expected to lay the groundwork to wind back its asset purchase program, though few investors expect to see a clear framework just yet. According to a report on Wednesday, the Governing Council has been presented with documents outlining multiple scenarios for adjusting quantitative easing, according to euro-area officials familiar with the matter. Ahead of the ECB meeting, Euro 2-week vol spiked to the highest since April.

    [​IMG]



    Despite uncertainty about what Draghi will say, the EUR/USD pushes through yesterday’s high, trading at 1.1978 last. The euro’s dramatic rise this year is causing discomfort in part of the euro zone: a fourth day of gains took the common currency back above $1.1950 against the dollar while a broad tick higher in European bond yields pushed 10-year German debt up 2 basis point to 0.36 percent and Spanish and Italian paper to 1.45 and 2 percent respectively.

    “Most people are on the same page that the ECB will do something to reduce their accommodation (soon),” said JP Morgan Asset Management Strategist Nandini Ramakrishnan, although nobody is willing to say when. “We don’t expect them to announce the start of tapering this meeting, but we do expect them to give us an idea they will start in January. The details are more likely to come at the October meeting,” she added.

    All the economic activity signals suggest it should take its foot off the gas, but the 13 percent surge of the euro already this year is playing havoc with its sub-target inflation outlook and it will want to step lightly for fear of compounding the problem with another exchange rate jump.

    Meanwhile, in Asia, the Topix index rose 0.4 percent at the close in Tokyo, while South Korea's KOSPIwhich has been burdened by tensions over North Korea, jumped 1.2 percent too, on course to mark its biggest gain in four months amid signs that major powers were talking intensively on the situation. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 percent as Chinese indexes fluctuated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Speaking in Russia, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he was having discussions with the leaders of Russia, Japan and the United States and that there would be no war on the peninsula.

    As the dollar pounding continued overnight, Canada’s dollar held its gains, after a surprise interest rate rise on Wednesday reminded everyone that G7 monetary settings will not remain super-easy forever. It also showed the very clear implication of policy tightening right now - the Canadian dollar surged more than 2 percent at one point to its highest levels in two years.

    Overnight, China’s central bank strengthens its daily reference rate for onshore yuan for a ninth day, the longest run of increases since January 2011. The PBOC raised the yuan reference rate by 0.06% to 6.5269 per dollar, extending the strengthening streak since Aug. 28 to 2%.

    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile, the offshore yuan surged, sending the USDCNH below 6.50 for the first time since May 3, 2016, declining as much as 0.55% to 6.4908 per dollar Thursday, and outpacing a 0.3 percent drop in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index; the offshore rate climbed 0.59%. Some speculate that the PBOC may seek to slow yuan’s rally after the
    currency surged past 6.5 per dollar for the first time since May 2016,
    according to analysts.

    [​IMG]

    Overnight the PBOC announced that its FX reserves increased for the 7th month in August, rising $10.8bn from end-Jul to $3.0915 trillion, however missing expectations of $3.095tn, 2.9% below Aug 2016.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Index futures dropped after the resignation of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and a Canadian interest-rate increase surprised U.S. markets late Wednesday. Traders are also watching Hurricane Irma, which is headed for Florida. West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuated.

    The news of the debt limit extension lifted yields on U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield holding back to 2.1 percent US10YT=RR from its 10-month low of 2.054 percent touched on Wednesday. Germany’s 10-year yield increased one basis point to 0.36 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to 1.024 percent.

    In Commodities, oil prices maintained much of this week’s strong gains as the reopening of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries improved the outlook after sharp falls caused by Hurricane Harvey. WTI futures were at $49.07 per barrel, down 0.2 percent from late U.S. levels after having gained 3.0 percent in the previous three sessions. Brent traded at $54.11 a barrel, down 0.2 percent but still not far from its 3-1/2-month high of $54.31 touched on Wednesday. Traders are now shifting their focus to Hurricane Irma, ranked as one of the five most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in the last 80 years, which was passing over the northernmost Virgin Islands on Wednesday afternoon and expected to reach Florida at the weekend.

    Traders are now shifting their focus to Hurricane Irma, ranked as one of the five most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in the last 80 years, which was passing over the northernmost Virgin Islands on Wednesday afternoon and expected to reach Florida at the weekend. Economic data on Thursday includes initial jobless claims. Dell, Barnes & Noble are due to release results.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European equities trade higher ahead of today’s ECB policy announcement with slight underperformance in
      financial names
    • EUR is also seen firmer while SEK lags after the Riksbank failed to provide a hawkish tilt to their release
    • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB rate decision & press conference, US weekly jobs and DoEs
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,461.50
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.28% to 374.98
    • MSCI Asia up 0.3% to 160.58
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.4% to 530.99
    • Nikkei up 0.2% to 19,396.52
    • Topix up 0.4% to 1,598.24
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,522.92
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,365.50
    • Sensex up 0.1% to 31,707.62
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 unchanged at 5,689.88
    • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,346.19
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.361%
    • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1961
    • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $54.52/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 1.736%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.571%
    • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,338.10
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 91.99
    Top Overnight News
    • Hurricane Irma is threatening to wreak havoc on Florida farmlands, menacing $1.2 billion worth of production in the top U.S. grower of fresh tomatoes, oranges, green beans, cucumbers, squash and sugarcane
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in said Thursday they saw the Trump administration as willing to solve the North Korean crisis through diplomacy
    • Prime Minister Theresa May’s flagship piece of Brexit legislation will be debated for the first time Thursday, giving opponents an opportunity to lay out their objections in Parliament
    • Trump is unlikely to nominate Gary Cohn as Fed chairman: WSJ
    • German industrial production stagnated in July as momentum slowed after a stellar performance in the first half of the year
    • Sweden’s Riksbank left its repo rate at -0.5% and kept the rate path intact saying that monetary policy needs to remain expansionary for inflation to continue to be close to 2%
    • U.K. house prices rise 1.1% in August, annual rate rises first time in 2017
    • N.Z. Labour Party extends lead over ruling National Party in Colmar poll
    • Trump’s Surprise Deal With Democrats Sets Up Christmas Showdown
    • U.S. Is Said to Seek a Ban at UN on Crude Oil to North Korea
    • Draghi Kicks Off QE Exit Debate He Has Long Sought to Avoid
    • Amazon Opens Largest Indian Fulfillment Center in Hyderabad
    • IBM to Invest $240 Million to Develop AI Research Lab With MIT
    • Citi Starts First Facebook Messenger Banking Chatbot Service
    • Apple, LG Said to Discuss OLED Deal For Supplies Starting 2019
    • Facebook Found Election Ad Spending Likely Linked to Russia
    • Apple-Aligned 3D-Sensing Stocks Well Placed, Deutsche Bank Says
    • P&G Told It Must Modernize, Digitize as Peltz Escalates Fight
    • SpaceX to Launch Secret Spy Craft Mission, If Weather Cooperates
    • Chevron Phillips Chemical Assessing Flood Damage at Cedar Bayou
    • ABB to Expand Industrial Robot Factory in Michigan, Reuters Says
    • Hurricane Irma Menaces Florida After Wrecking Caribbean Islands
    Asia stock markets were mixed as the region somewhat failed to maintain the positive momentum from Wall St. where stocks gained after US President Trump agreed with congress leaders to pass the Harvey aid and raise the debt ceiling. This inspired early upside in the ASX 200 (flat) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%), in which energy names coat-tailed on oil gains and telecoms outperformed as investors bought the Telstra dip. In addition, Rio Tinto was another notable gainer as shares in the mining giant printed its highest in over 6-months after the Co. boosted its ore reserve estimates by about 50% at its Kestrel coal mine, although optimism in the ASX 200 later waned and so did the gains. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were indecisive after the PBoC refrained from its regular open market operations but then later provided funds through a 1yr medium-term lending facility. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with demand sapped by the positive risk sentiment in Japan, and after the 30yr JGB auction showed weaker demand as the MOF sold less than planned and the b/c declined from prior. PBoC skipped open markets operations, but announced CNY 298bln via 1yr Medium-Term Lending Facility. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5269 (Prev. 6.5311)

    Top Asian News
    • China Foreign Reserves Rise a Seventh Month Amid Yuan Strength;China End-Aug. Forex Reserves at $3.0915T; Est. $3.0950T
    • Malaysia Holds Interest Rate at 3% as Economic Outlook Improves
    • China Cities Face Surging Funding Costs on Default Concerns
    • Hong Kong Dollar Surges Most in a Month Against Greenback
    • Japan Stocks to Watch: Japan Tobacco, Panasonic, Sekisui House
    • Onshore Yuan Rises Past 6.5 Per Dollar First Time Since May 2016
    • Ford China Aug. Sales Fall 1% Y/y to 97,863 Units
    European equity markets were mostly higher in early European trade as markets look ahead to the ECB’s interest rate decision. Financials were slightly underperforming while utilities outperformed, supported by RWE and Innogy after reports in Spanish press that Iberdrola are looking at a large-scale acquisition in Europe. Bunds opened lower but have traded sideways throughout the European morning ahead of the ECB decision. The lower open came as US yields rose following the temporary extension of the debt ceiling. Peripheral spreads were steady while the Spanish Tesoro sold four lines in a relatively well-received auction while the French 10yr slipped around 10 ticks after the market absorbed the latest supply from France.

    Top European News
    • French May Be Souring on Macron, But He’s All They’ve Got
    • U.K. House Prices Climb Most This Year, Bucking Recent Trend
    • German Industry Output Stagnates as Manufacturing Momentum Slows
    • Woodford Says We’ve had a Tough Couple of Months; Blames China
    • Norwegian Jumps After CFO Says Could Sell Leasing Unit, Jets
    • Euro Extends Gains as Dollar Pressured; Riskies Edge Higher
    • May’s Key Brexit Bill Set for First Debate in Parliament
    In FX, the EUR strengthened across the board ahead of the ECB rate decision, although news flow and data from the Eurozone
    was relatively light. Some reports circulated that the ECB decision would be released after the usual time of 1345CST which led
    to speculation that policy change was coming, however, this was a mistake and the ECB have said the decision will be released at
    the usual time. The SEK weakened after the Riksbank’s rate decision where they kept interest rates and the QE programme
    unchanged and stated they are prepared to implement more easing if necessary. Elsewhere, CAD remains in close proximity
    to yesterday’s BoC-inspired gains vs. the USD, while the USD is broadly weaker across the board as USD/JPY trades circa 40 pips
    lower despite the risk sentiment seen in equity markets.

    In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures had been lower in early European trade as Libyan oil production has resumed from certain oilfields, including the Sharara field, which is the country’s largest. However, the impact from the recent hurricanes is still having an impact on the market. As oil refineries continue to come back online in Texas demand for crude is expected to pick up. 3.8mln bpd of refining capacity was still shut-in on Wednesday although a number of refineries are in the process of restarting.
    US API weekly crude stocks (01 Sep, w/e) 2790K (Prev. -5780K).

    Looking at the day ahead, there is initial jobless claims, continuing claims and final readings for Q2 nonfarm productivity due. Away from the data, in the UK, Brexit Secretary David Davis faces questions in the House of Commons about the state of Brexit talks. In the US, Cleveland Fed President Mester and NY Fed President Dudley are schedule to speak. Elsewhere, the IMF Managing Director Lagarde, BOJ Deputy Governor and BOK Governor will meet for a two-day conference on growth in Seoul.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 236,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.95m, prior 1.94m
    • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 1.3%, prior 0.9%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 53.3
    • 12:15pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
    • 7pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy
    • 8:15pm: Fed’s George Speaks on the Economic Outlook
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It’s amazing what a difference a day makes. US politics returned to be the dominant driver in markets again yesterday following the news that President Trump had reached an agreement with the Democrats to kick the debt limit can firmly into the month of December

    Before we jump into that in more detail though, looking ahead today is all about the ECB with the policy meeting outcome scheduled for 12.45pm BST and Draghi’s press conference due about 45 minutes later. As we noted on Monday we aren’t expecting any policy announcements. It’s well known that a QE exit step is expected in the next few months so any hints on that will be closely watched. Our economists expect the exit signal to be weak today (their expectation is a dovish October announcement) given concern about market overshooting. Indeed they expect the ECB to leave the current rhetorical framework “confidence, patience, persistence and prudence” largely intact today while adding a mild verbal warning that the Euro exchange rate is “important to growth and inflation”. Indeed the extent to which Draghi jawbones the currency today is likely to be the most important driver for the ECB outlook and he won’t need to be reminded that the Euro is up +3.6% since the last policy meeting and up +13.4% YTD.

    Interestingly, just as Europe was heading for the doors last night, a Bloomberg article hit the screens suggesting that policy makers have already been given a first look at various QE scenarios for 2018. The crux of the article was that the governing council have been presented with multiple scenarios without going into further detail aside from suggesting that different combinations for the size and duration of purchases were made. The article also suggested that a decision doesn’t look likely before the October 26th meeting which isn’t a great surprise. The article did also suggest that officials “may talk about altering their forward guidance on interest rates” and that ECB staff “slightly lowered their inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019”. Without knowing just how much these forecasts are tweaked it’s probably too early to read into those factors, although if the use of the word “slight” is a clue then maybe this shows that the ECB isn’t hugely concerned about the currency. We should know in about 6 to 7 hours.

    Back to the big news across the pond now where just after that ECB article hit, the White House announced that President Trump had agreed to a deal initially proposed by the Democrats that will see a three-month government spending and debt limit extension added to a hurricane relief bill. So in other words this now means that the debt limit can has been kicked back to December 15th. Prior to that news House Speaker Ryan had said in the morning that the Democratic proposal for a three-month extension was “unworkable” and “ridiculous”. It has since emerged that Trump also went against the will of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell who both wanted a longer extension. Unsurprisingly T-Bills maturing on October 5th and October 12th had a field day, rallying -16.5bps and -13.4bps respectively, however December T-Bills were as much as +8.7bps higher in yield intraday. Longer dated bonds were only modestly weaker with 10y Treasury yields finishing +4.5bp higher at 2.105%. Risk assets took the news well with the S&P 500 bouncing back to a +0.31% gain. Gold closed -0.41% lower.

    So while this clears the runway for a few months and removes a potential near term risk for markets it was fairly amazing to see Trump outright defy Republican leaders in Congress. It also begs the question of whether we could see Trump do the same in future deals. It’s worth keeping in mind too that the December Fed meeting is scheduled for the 12th and 13th, so two days prior to the deadline. A lot can change between now and then but this certainly ups the uncertainty factor to that meeting.

    On a related note, the big news over at the Fed yesterday was the announcement that Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer had resigned, taking effect next month. Fischer was already scheduled to step down in June next year however the acceleration of his resignation means that the Fed will now be competing with the loss of another senior hawkish member (or at least the hawkish side of centre). Notably, this means that the Fed is left with four vacant seats on the board which surely adds another cloud to the outlook. How quickly Fischer is replaced will be determined by President Trump. With question marks still around Janet Yellen when her term as Chair expires in February, there appears to be more questions than answers right now.

    Wrapping up the remaining central bank news from yesterday, there was a reasonable surprise hike from the Bank of Canada which raised the benchmark rate by 25bps to 1%. Canadian 2y bond yields surged 10.1bps by the close while the CAD rallied +1.20% for its strongest day in nearly two months. Only 6 of 26 economists had expected the move this month. However, the BoC’s action was mainly a surprise for its timing rather than substance as most commentators, including DB’s Brett Ryan, had expected the BoC to take this step next month. The BoC justified the move by noting that stronger than expected data had supported the Bank’s view that domestic growth is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. Looking ahead, the BoC noted that “future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined and will be guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments as they inform the outlook for inflation”. We note the Bloomberg calculator currently suggest a 65% chance of a further rate hike in December

    This morning in Asia, markets have largely followed the lead from the US in trading firmer, with Nikkei (+0.37%), Kospi (+1.07%), ASX 200 (+0.27%) and Hang Seng (+0.23%) all up. Bourses in China are little changed. The 10y Treasuries are slightly stronger this morning (-1.2bp). Elsewhere, four more US THAAD missile launchers have arrived in South Korea today, partly boosting security in anticipation for more missile tests by North Korea, potentially as soon as this weekend.

    In terms of other markets yesterday, in Europe the Stoxx 600 edged up +0.06%, but the DAX rose +0.75%, led by gains from the auto secto r (+2.23%). European bond yields increased modestly, with 10y Bunds (+0.9bp), Gilts (+0.5bp) and French OATs (+1.5bp) all higher. Elsewhere, WTI Oil rose 1% as more Texan oil refineries resume operations. Both the US Dollar index and the Euro were little changed.

    Moving on and to the latest on Brexit. Yesterday we learned that the office representing PM Theresa May had distributed a letter to FTSE 100 listed UK companies, asking senior executives to sign and publicly support her government’s Brexit strategy. According to Sky News, the leaked letter expressed confidence in the future of a global Britain and says the government’s repeal bill will “make Britain ready for life outside the EU”. In response, some executives expressed incredulity and are unlikely to sign the letters. May’s Brexit legislation bill will be debated for the first time in parliament today.

    Turning to other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the August ISM nonmanufacturing composite index rose mom but was a tad lower than expected at 55.3 (vs. 55.6 expected). In the detail, the employment index rose 2.6pts to 56.2 (1.7pts above the YTD average), the new orders index rose 1.6pts to 57.1 (1.9pts below the YTD average) and the prices paid index rose to 57.9 (highest reading since February). Elsewhere, the final reading for the Markit services and composite PMIs were also slightly weaker, with services at 56.0 (vs. 56.9 expected) and the composite at 55.3 (vs. 56.0 previously). The July trade balance figures were slightly above market at -$43.7bn (vs. -$44.7bn expected).

    Meanwhile the latest Beige Book was reasonably positive with all twelve Federal Reserve Districts reporting that economic activity had expanded at “a modest to moderate pace”. Employment growth was said to have “slowed some” on balance, and labour markets said to be “widely characterized as tight”. However, the majority of Districts reported only “modest to moderate” wage growth. In Germany, the July factory orders fell more than expected at -0.7% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) driven by weaker domestic orders, but annual growth was still up +5.0% yoy (vs. +5.8% expected).

    Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s industrial production for July (+0.5% mom expected) is due along with France’s trade balance and current account balance stats this morning. Elsewhere, house price data in the UK and Q2 GDP (final revision) for the Eurozone is due. This is all before the ECB meeting around midday. Over in the US, there is initial jobless claims, continuing claims and final readings for Q2 nonfarm productivity due. Away from the data, in the UK, Brexit Secretary David Davis faces questions in the House of Commons about the state of Brexit talks. In the US, Cleveland Fed President Mester and NY Fed President Dudley are schedule to speak. Elsewhere, the IMF Managing Director Lagarde, BOJ Deputy Governor and BOK Governor will meet for a two-day conference on growth in Seoul.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...t-euro-surges-dollar-slides-yuan-breaches-650
     
  31. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 7

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 7, 2017 7:58 AM

    • China agrees more U.N. actions needed against North Korea after nuclear test (Reuters)
    • Hurricane Irma kills eight on St. Martin (Reuters)
    • Trump’s Surprise Deal With Democrats Sets Up Christmas Showdown (BBG)
    • North Korea pledges 'powerful counter measures' against U.S.-backed sanctions (Reuters)
    • Why Florida Is Largely Insured by Companies You’ve Never Heard Of (WSJ)
    • How to Gauge Whether Irma Will Be an Insurance Catastrophe (WSJ)
    • U.S. agriculture braces for Irma (Reuters)
    • Hurricane Irma Threatens $1.2 Billion of Florida Crops (BBG)
    • Irma threatens luxury Trump properties (Reuters)
    • Investor Who Lost Millions Finally Gives Up on His China Bet (BBG)
    • Meth, coke and oil: A drug boom in the Texas shale patch (Reuters)
    • Unilever, Nestle Snap Up Organic Tea and Vegetarian Burritos (BBG)
    • Israel hits Syria target reportedly tied to chemical weapons (Reuters)
    • Football Champs and CEOs Alike Sidestep Taxes With Private Jets (BBG)
    • China’s Bad Banks Show It Still Has a Big Bad Loan Problem (WSJ)
    • Britain's May calls on lawmakers to back bill, move closer to Brexit (Reuters)
    • Putin rues awarding U.S. top diplomat Tillerson Russian state honor (Reuters)
    • U.S. charges former Turkish minister with Iran sanctions evasion (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Goldman Sachs Group Inc has stopped working on the potential listing of Pactera Technology International Ltd, a company owned by HNA Group Co, because of concerns about the acquisitive conglomerate's ownership structure. on.wsj.com/2eHSffL

    - President Donald Trump is unlikely to nominate Gary Cohn to succeed Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve chairman, according to people familiar with the president's thinking. on.wsj.com/2eHSE1L

    - The majority of ships operating in the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet, where two destroyers have been involved in fatal collisions since June, weren't certified to conduct basic operations at sea related to war-fighting, according to U.S. Navy records. on.wsj.com/2eHjE1z

    - Some board members of Toshiba Corp are making a last-minute push to accept Foxconn Technology Group's bid for Toshiba's memory-chip unit. on.wsj.com/2eHFQZs

    - Several congressional committees investigating Russian meddling during the 2016 U.S. election are expected to hear this week from witnesses connected to the controversy. on.wsj.com/2eHzb1v

    - In a bid to speed up the delivery process, Amazon.com Inc is set to open a fulfillment facility on Staten Island, bringing 2,250 full-time jobs to the area. on.wsj.com/2eIFphE

    - Facing a dearth of teachers, many states in the U.S. are now scaling back on requisite qualifications that will make it easier to teach in public school classrooms. on.wsj.com/2eI3J2S

    - Hurricane Irma struck several islands in the northeast Caribbean on Wednesday, killing at least three people and flattening swaths of the island of Barbuda, while officials in Florida pressed hundreds of thousands of residents ahead of a possible landfall on Sunday. on.wsj.com/2eHJjak


    FT

    * The British government has asked FTSE 100 companies to sign a public letter endorsing its Brexit strategy on Wednesday angering many executives who are reluctant to agree.

    * Facebook Inc said on Wednesday it had found that an influence operation likely based in Russia spent $100,000 on thousands of ads promoting divisive social and political messages in a two-year-period amid investigations into allegations of Russian efforts to influence the U.S. presidential election.

    * U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, a veteran central banker who helped set the course for modern monetary policy, said on Wednesday he will step down from his position in mid-October.

    NYT

    - Providing new evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election, Facebook Inc disclosed on Wednesday it had identified more than $100,000 worth of divisive ads on hot-button issues purchased by a shadowy Russian company linked to the Kremlin. nyti.ms/2f4Q0nB

    - Stanley Fischer, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said he would resign in mid-October, an unexpected decision that gives President Trump greater leverage over central bank policy. nyti.ms/2wKDOQu

    - Facebook Inc is blocked in China but the social media giant in recent months has quietly scouted for office space in Shanghai, according to two people with knowledge of its efforts there. nyti.ms/2wKQ5Vc

    - Toys "R" Us Inc has hired restructuring advisers from the prominent law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP as it tries to cope with hundreds of millions of dollars of debt coming due, according to two people briefed on the matter. nyti.ms/2wKCBse

    - Lawmakers in the House took a major step on Wednesday toward advancing the development of driverless cars, approving legislation that would put the vehicles onto public roads more quickly and curb states from slowing their spread. nyti.ms/2vNz3by


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    Global investment bank Lazard Ltd landed a veteran Canadian mining deal maker from RBC Dominion Securities Inc ahead of an expected increase in takeover activity from natural resource companies. tgam.ca/2waIjSm

    Hudson's Bay Co's board of directors has hired - or is hiring - JP Morgan to advise it on strategic options including going private, a U.S. activist investor in the retailer suggests. tgam.ca/2wb32p3

    TransCanada Corp is giving itself more time to sign up shippers on its proposed Keystone XL pipeline, citing the impacts of Hurricane Harvey on its U.S. Gulf Coast refining customers. tgam.ca/2wakuua

    NATIONAL POST

    While all eyes are on NAFTA, Canada is trying to move quickly on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, with decisions on a China free trade agreement and an updated Trans-Pacific Partnership coming this fall. bit.ly/2wb2NKN


    Britain

    The Times

    - An unusual 1.5 million pounds ($1.96 million) cash bonus for the chief executive of Aveva Group PLC for clinching the merger this week with Schneider Electric SE has raised eyebrows with the Cambridge company's biggest shareholder, Standard Life Aberdeen PLC bit.ly/2wJzK2M

    - Neil Woodford, founding partner of Woodford Investment Management has blamed credit growth in China as the main reason behind the recent poor performance of his most high-profile fund in an interview for his website. bit.ly/2wJFGJ2

    The Guardian

    - Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive John Cryan has issued a stark warning about the impact of technology, to an audience at a conference in Frankfurt saying a "big number" of his staff will lose their jobs as robots take over. bit.ly/2wJH3I4

    - The Financial Conduct Authority is facing pressure from Parliament's Treasury Select Committee to publish its leaked report into Royal Bank of Scotland PLC's troubled business restructuring unit. bit.ly/2wK3Wei

    The Telegraph

    - Sports Direct International PLC's under-fire chairman Keith Hellawell survived a tense shareholder vote today after narrowly clinching support for his re-election from the majority of independent shareholders. bit.ly/2wIz8ud

    - The European Court of Justice has ordered a 1.06 billion Euro ($1.26 billion) fine for Intel Corp to be re-examined in a major victory for the U.S. microchip giant that could bolster Silicon Valley in its battles with Brussels. bit.ly/2wJCkWs

    Sky News

    - Asda, the British supermarket arm of Wal-Mart says a shake-up of its main office functions will result in the loss of 300 jobs. bit.ly/2wJjW09

    - Downing Street is asking Britain's biggest companies to give public support to the government's approach to its Brexit negotiations, a move which has angered a string of blue-chip boardrooms. bit.ly/2wJngIv

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-07/frontrunning-september-7
     
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    Is the High Cost Of Housing Crushing Wages?

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 7, 2017 8:08 AM


    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The authors' thesis doesn't explain the 47-year downtrend of labor's share of the economy.

    A provocative essay, Don't Blame the Robots, makes the bold claim that "Housing Prices and Market Power Explain Wage Stagnation." (Foreign Affairs) In other words, the stagnation of the bottom 95% of wages isn't caused by automation or offshoring, but by the crushingly high cost of housing:

    "Yet recent academic work in macroeconomics suggests that current wage stagnation has less to do with robots and more to do with real estate and market power.

    Real wage growth is a function of two things: changes in productivity and changes in the share of national output attributed to labor. If the share of GDP going to workers doesn’t change, then real wages simply track productivity."

    The market power argument is straightforward: as competition declines, cartels and quasi-monopolies scoop up a larger share of the national income, leaving relatively less for labor.

    The high housing costs crush wages argument is more nuanced. The high cost of housing means that much of the nation's available capital stock is invested in housing, rather than in productivity-boosting capital investments. This diversion of capital from productivity to housing reduces the productivity gains that enable higher wages.

    The authors describe a second dynamic: the soaring cost of rents / purchasing housing in high-productivity cities such as New York and San Francisco effectively locks out lower-productivity/wages workers, pushing them into low-productivity locales which then have an oversupply of labor, further pressuring wages.

    The authors claim that wages have dropped because workers have to devote a larger share of their earnings to housing, but this erroneously conflates real wages and disposable income: the two are entirely different.

    If a worker earns 12% more pay annually, and inflation is 2% per annum, her real (adjusted for inflation) wages rise by 10%. If her housing costs rise by 20% in the same time period, her disposable income, i.e. what's left after paying for housing, declines despite her higher income.

    In other words, the higher cost of housing may well lower disposable income, but that's not the issue: the issue is the stagnation of real wages paid by employers to employees (and the earnings of self-employed people).

    While these arguments describe a little-noticed connection between capital, housing costs and wages, the case is not entirely persuasive. While it's clear that sky-high rents in Manhattan and San Francisco are unaffordable to average wage earners, what about cities in the Midwest, Southwest and Southeast with much lower housing costs?

    In cities where it's still possible to buy a small, older home for $60,000 - $90,000, and rent an apartment for $450 to $700 per month, shouldn't the wages be higher, since the cost of housing isn't prohibitive? Some cities provide a mix of high and low-productivity jobs and low to moderate housing prices. If the authors' premise is correct, there ought to be a discernible correlation between low housing costs, a mix of higher-wage and lower-wages jobs and broadly higher wages.

    While I don't know of any studies that track these variables, my sense is cities with relatively low-priced housing exhibit the same stagnating wages for the bottom 95% as high-cost cities.

    I think it more likely that high housing costs exacerbate the income-wealth divide rather than explain secular wage stagnation. Take a look at this chart of the spending patterns of the top 5% and the bottom 95%. Clearly, the top 5% have pulled away from the 95%. Wages aren't stagnating for all workers; rather, wage gains are flowing upward to the favored class that can optimize managerial/technical/financial expertise.

    [​IMG]

    The authors' thesis doesn't explain the 47-year downtrend of labor's share of the economy. Housing was relatively stable for much of the past four decades, while labor's share of GDP fell steadily. Even more unsettling, labor's share fell off a cliff in the period 1990 to 1996, when housing was flat even in high-priced regions.

    [​IMG]

    The siphoning off of capital from productive investments to unproductive housing is a core dynamic in explaining the stagnation of productivity. But this doesn't explain why employers either can't or don't have to pay higher wages in an era of steadily rising costs for nearly every major expense: not just housing, but healthcare, college tuition, etc.

    * * *

    If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print, $5.95 audiobook) For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-07/high-cost-housing-crushing-wages
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-07-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    The European central bank in its meeting will try and reduce the rise of the euro against the major currencies as it hurts exports. However the ECB is expected to confirm liquidity reduction measures in October. If there is no confirmation on liquidity reduction measures by the ECB, then the euro/usd will fall to 1.1642 and 1.1444 in the short term. There is some speculation that the so called Brexit may not actually happen.
     
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    Sell Bitcoin Buy Gold, Mortgages, Dollar Debasement, Korea
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 7, 2017
    Hurricanes threaten housing markets and mortgage investment vehicles, Dollar debasement and global conflict with Korea, opinion pieces on Bitcoin / BTC / Cryptocurrency and the future. Welcome to the Junius Maltby Channel.
    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
    Channel Coin: https://qualitysilverbullion.com/prod...

    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
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    Bitcoin is a Bubble | Alasdair MacLeod
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Sep 7, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    Bitcoin is not money and never will be, says London Analysts Alasdair MacLeod.

    MacLeod explains why cryptocurrencies are a bubble. Either the bubble will collapse by itself or governments will destroy cryptocurrencies. But the general public hasn’t yet jumped on the cryptocurrency bandwagon. “When the ordinary man in the street starts playing, you know it’s time to get out,” he says. As for governments putting a stop to cryptocurrencies, MacLeod says it’ll be years before there’s an international agreement on such a matter.
     
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