1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
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Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    UN & IMF: New World Currency WILL NOT BE the US Dollar | Mike Rivero
    Reluctant Preppers



    Published on Sep 17, 2017
    What happened to Trump who was elected on the platform of US not getting entangled in and paying for the world’s wars? Why are we now embroiled as much as
    RP Mike Rivero 2017-09-13 3.mp3
    ever in saber rattling against Russia and China? What’s really behind all this escalation of tensions? With China already announcing Non-US Dollar oil contracts convertible to gold-backed Yuan, and the UN & IMF indicating a global pivot away form the US Dollar, what do you need to do to protect yourself?

    Investigative journalist, self-described rabble-rouser, and peace activist, Mike Rivero, founder and host of WhatReallyHappened.com, returns to Reluctant Preppers to lay out the basics we need to know now to be aware and prepared!

    === IN THIS INTERVIEW =============

    US hurtling toward WWIII in Syria, North Korea, Russia, China - What’s the REAL reason behind the US raising cain all over the world?

    What happened to Trump who was elected on the platform of US not getting entangled in and paying for the world’s wars?

    Signs of the Times - What Does it Mean?:
    DJI record, gold & silver not allowed to rise
    Which HUGE Insurance company is predicting new trend of theft claims and damage losses against: Solar power systems, gold/silver/platinum, cryptocurrencies, locks?
    Pre-garage sale buyers seeking: guns/knives/silver/gold…

    Hurricanes: What lessons prove the importance of prepping?

    Real-Life stories reveal the importance of: - Go-Bag, - Keeping a full tank of gas, - Having backup forms of communication (2-way radios) - Note: GMRS license not needed if an emergency!


    Subscribe (it's FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers for more ► http://bit.ly/Subscribe-Free

    Channel graphics by http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com
    Promotion by http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  4. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Global Stocks Storm To New Record High Ahead Of Historic Fed Announcement

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 18, 2017 6:45 AM


    Last week's bullish sentiment that sent the S&P not only to a new all time highs, but a burst of last-second buying pushed above 2,500 for the first time ever, has carried through to the new week, with European and Asian shares rallying across the board, US futures again the green, and world stocks hitting a new record high on Monday ahead of a historic Fed meeting in which the FOMC is expected to announce the start of the shrinkage of its balance sheet.

    [​IMG]

    “The FOMC’s latest verdict will be of special interest,” said Daniel Lenz, an analyst at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. “The Fed could well set the balance-sheet-reduction process in motion.”

    MSCI's index of world stocks hit a new all-time high, adding to gains seen on Friday when Wall Street set its own record level, while Europe’s main stock index opened at a six-week high on Monday and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose to heights not seen since late 2007.

    As DB's Jim Reid summarizes the week's key events, this week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world "and I'm not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May's speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg's calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment."

    Before we get there, however, there is much optimism and the Stoxx Europe 600 jumped the most in almost a week as 16 of 19 sectors advanced, rising 0.3% in early trading, the highest in almost six weeks. The European rally was led by banks, telecoms and utilities, while travel & leisure shares underperform as Ryanair falls after saying it plans to cancel flights amid crew issues. The Stoxx Europe reached its highest level since Aug. 8. The FTSE 100, recently hit by a surge in the pound, is up 0.4%. Shares in Ryanair drop 3.3% after the Irish airline said it will scrap 40 to 50 flights daily for six weeks. Fingerprint sinks 21% after warning on its revenue outlook.

    Asian equities rose more than a percent, the most in two months, after the record-breaking Wall Street session on Friday amid optimism the U.S. will pursue a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear threats. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index added 1% as of 4:39 p.m. in Hong Kong to trade close to its highest level since December 2007. The Philippines benchmark gauge, South Korea’s Kospi index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index are the three biggest gainers Monday with an advance of more than 1 percent each. S.Korea's Kospi index climbed 1.4% and Australia’s main gauge was up 0.5% at the close. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 1.3% . The Shanghai Composite Index was 0.3% higher. Japan markets are shut for respect-for-the-aged day. The Japanese yen fell as much as 0.5 percent to 111.37 per dollar, the weakest in almost eight weeks before recoupoing some losses and trading at 111.20 last.

    Hong Kong shares rallied Monday as developers were buoyed by policy hopes and brokerages gained after China relaxed rules on stock-index futures trading. Hang Seng Index jumps 1.3%, most in a month, to close above 28,000 resistance level for first time since Aug. 30 as developers extend rally into third day, with China Resources Land Ltd. jumping 7.5% to highest since May 2015; China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. gains 4.9%. According to Bloomberg, concerns over possible tightening before the 19th Party Congress has waned after data showed home prices increased in fewer cities in August, reducing the probability of more curbs, says Toni Ho, analyst at Rhb Osk Securities Hong Kong Ltd.

    U.S. futures also rose after equities increased from Australia to Hong Kong. The gains come after the S&P 500 Index broke through 2,500 for the first time on Friday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked another record.

    Not all is certain however, as an address by President Trump to world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday, and elections in Germany and New Zealand will add extra political uncertainty to the mix this week. But the main event will be the abovementioned Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, at which it is virtually guaranteed to take another step toward policy normalisation amid what is rapidly becoming a global trend. As a reminder, Canada has already hiked interest rates twice in recent months - the last time in a shock move that surprised most traders - while the Bank of England shocked many last week by flagging its own coming increases. The European Central Bank is meanwhile expected to shed more light on plans to exit its extraordinary stimulus in October.

    Political uncertainty also made a surprise appearance after sources said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was considering calling a snap election for as early as next month to take advantage of his improved approval ratings and disarray in the main opposition party.

    And yet persistently subdued global inflation despite a pick-up in growth remains the “trillion dollar” question for central banks looking to normalize policy, a report from Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday. As such, investors are far from convinced the Fed will move on rates again this year, with a December change put at less than a 50 percent probability in the futures market.

    “It is fair to say that in our recent travels most of the investors we have spoken to question not just a December hike, but whether the Fed will hike at all again this cycle,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. “When you press investors on the why, the standard reply is the lack of inflationary pressures.”

    In any case, overnight the dollar was stronger, reaching an eight-week high against the yen, as investors await the widely telegraphed Fed announcement, as oil climbed while safe havens continued to slide as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the weekend passed with no new provocation by North Korea. Currency traders started the week by adding risk-on positions amid optimism the U.S. will pursue a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear threats; the dollar climbed against the yen as 10-year Treasuries held last week’s losses in London trading; sterling fell as some investors took money off the table following the pound’s best week versus the greenback since 2009, while the euro swung between losses and gains as a report cited ECB Governing Council member Hansson advocating a “somewhat broader recalibration” of stimulus.

    The U.S. dollar rose to an almost eight-week high against yen after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said his country is seeking a peaceful outcome to end the nuclear standoff with North Korea, and as Japanese markets were closed for holiday. The USD was also supported by 10-year Treasury yields, which rose to the highest level in almost a month as bets build for Fed to announce timing of balance-sheet tapering after policy meeting Wednesday, and rising U.S. stock futures. The ten falls against almost all major peers as investors expect BOJ to maintain stimulus when it sets policy on Thursday; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he’ll decide on calling a snap election after he returns from a trip to the U.S., giving the pair a lift on speculation of further continuation of Abenomics.

    In rates, U.S. Treasury yields jumped a hefty 14 bps last week, but were little changed on Monday, as were most developed bond markets. In Europe, the eye-catching move was a sharp slide in Portuguese yields on the country regaining an investment grade rating after 5-1/2 years. The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained one basis point to 2.21 percent, the highest in almost a month. Germany’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to 0.44 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield decreased less than one basis point to 1.31 percent, the first retreat in more than a week.

    U.S. crude oil prices rose above $50 per barrel on Monday and were near last week’s multi-month highs as the number of U.S. rigs drilling for new production fell and refineries continued to restart after getting knocked out by Hurricane Harvey. Talk of monetary tightening and a bounce in the dollar put gold on the defensive. The precious metal was off 0.4 percent at $1,314.43 an ounce.

    Investors will be keeping a close eye on a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney later on Monday. HSBC sees two more rate hikes by the BoE between now and the end of next year. Economic data include NAHB Housing Market Index for September. Houghton Mifflin and Steelcase are reporting earnings.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European and Asian markets in the green
    • In FX, the greenback gains some ground
    • Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Carney and BoC’s Lane
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,503.50
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 382.00
    • MSCI Asia up 0.6% to 163.29
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1.1% to 544.11
    • Nikkei up 0.5% to 19,909.50
    • Topix up 0.4% to 1,638.94
    • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 28,159.77
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,362.86
    • Sensex up 0.7% to 32,493.91
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,720.60
    • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,418.21
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.428%
    • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1926
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.786%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 5.5 bps to 1.554%
    • Brent futures up 0.4% to $55.74/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,314.44
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.03
    Top Overnight News
    • Inflation in the euro-area rose an annual 1.5% in Aug., matching the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey
    • The PBOC has drafted plans to allow foreign investors greater access to the country’s financial sector, including a proposal to give overseas firms control of their joint ventures in China, according to people familiar with the discussions
    • U.K. house prices grew at the slowest annual pace in more than five years this month as a slump in London weighed on the market
    • Base effects from energy and unprocessed food prices “will exert a strong impact on the projected path for headline HICP inflation in the coming quarters,” ECB says
    • The kiwi dollar has dropped whenever opinion polls show the main opposition Labour Party is ahead, while the currency jumped a full U.S. cent after a survey last week put the ruling National Party in the lead
    • AT&T-Time Warner Deal Said on Track to Win U.S. Nod by November
    • Trading Execution Prices Are Seen Plunging in MiFID Share Grab
    • Economists Boost Euro-Area Outlook, See Best Year in a Decade
    • U.K. Outlook Seen as Rosier as BOE Edges Closer to Rate Hike
    • Fingerprint Plunges After Warning Revenue Will Miss Estimates
    • S. Korea Says Additional N. Korea Missile, Nuke Tests Likely
    Asia equity markets began the week strongly, with significant profits after last Friday’s gains in US, where all majors eked fresh record levels and the S&P 500 just about surmounted the 2500 level. This supported the Asia-Pac region and lifted ASX 200 (+0.4%) and KOSPI (+1.1%) from the get-go, with strength in financials front-running the sectors in Australia. Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) and Hang Seng (+1.0%) were also positive after better than expected lending data and a substantial liquidity injection of CNY 300bln by the PBoC, although gains across the region were somewhat contained with Japan away for holiday and ahead of key risk events including the FOMC this week. The PBOC is said to draft plan for foreign access to the finance sector. As reported over the weekend, Japanese PM Abe is reported to be considering dissolving the lower house for a snap election next month and informed the ruling coalition of his plans, with October 22nd seen as a likely date for the snap elections. Chinese House Prices YY (Aug) 8.3% (Prev. 9.7%). Chinese House Prices increased M/M in 46 out of 70 cities (Prev. 56) and increased Y/Y in 68 out of 70 cities (Prev. 70). PBoC injected CNY 280bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos, most since January: the People’s Bank of China added the most cash into financial system via open-market operations since January, as it seeks to ensure ample liquidity before end-quarter regulatory checks and a week-long holiday early next month.

    Top Asian News
    • China PBOC Is Said to Draft Package for Financial Market Opening
    • Abe Says He’ll Decide on Snap Japan Election After Trip to U.S
    • Saudis Said to Weigh Raising Gasoline Prices by End- November
    • Chinese Online Insurer ZhongAn Starts $1.5 Billion Hong Kong IPO
    • Iron Ore Bears Push for Control as Futures Drop Near Bear Market
    • Qatar to Buy 24 Typhoon Jets to Beef Up U.K. Defense Partnership
    • BYD Extends Weekly Surge on China’s Plan to Boost Electric Autos
    European equity markets trade in the green across the board, following the global price action, as the US saw fresh
    record levels once again, highlighted by the S&P 500, which closed above the 2500 level. All 10 sectors trade in the green,
    led by Telecoms, which outperformed in the US on Friday, trading up over 1% with Telecom Italia leading the FTSE MIB charge.
    BAE Systems are one of the outperformers in the UK, following news that they have secured a Typhoon fighter aircraft deal with
    Qatar which could be worth more than GBP 2bln.
    Portuguese yields underperform, following their rating upgrade curtesy of S&P on Friday. 10 y spreads trade more than
    20bps tighter to Bunds, as such the 2y Portuguese yield now trades firmly in the negative (-0.09%). The European triple A’s
    continue to trade alongside the hawkish bank rhetoric with Bunds and Gilts trading around session lows.

    Top European News
    • London Slumps as U.K. Sellers Raise Home Prices Least Since 2012
    • Portugal Bonds Lead Peripheral Rally on Sovereign Rating Upgrade
    • Natixis Unlikely to Buy AXA Investment Management Unit: JPMorgan
    • European Telco Rally Overdue, May Rotate Quickly: Deutsche Bank
    • ECB Sees Base Effect Affecting Inflation in the Coming Quarters
    In currencies, the European morning has been dictated by the greenback, as the DXY has broken out of the overnight range. A push through 92.00 helped many of the dollars major pairs to see some volatility. USD/JPY trades at session highs, firmly back in Apr – Aug trading range, looking like a test of 114.00 is now possible. GBP/USD continues to struggle to break 1.36, however traders are likely to await Carney at 16:00BST. Sterling has seen some early choppy trade, with early week, Monday thin trade evident. Cable managed to spike through overnight highs, back through 1.36. However, trade quickly stalled, with pending offers pushing the pair back towards overnight lows, looking for a break of 1.3550.

    In commodities, oil has seen an early bid amid no real fundamental news, WTI trades back through 50.00/bbl looking towards August’s 50.51 high. Another pending hurricane could cause continued Energy concerns, as Hurricane ‘Maria’ is forecast to become another Category 4. Precious metals continue to come off highs, as geopolitical concerns have dampened in the market with gold seemingly set to see another outside down day. A key tech level to watch will be the 1295 area, which behaved as resistance up until August 28th.

    Looking at the day ahead, Monday starts with the final reading of the Eurozone’s August inflation, which printed largely as expected although there was some upside in core prints. Over in the US, there is the NAHB Housing market index and total net TIC flows for July. Also on Monday, US’s lead negotiator on the NAFTA talks will speak and lay out the US’s priorities. There are also other speakers, including: i) BOE’s governor Mark Carney giving a lecture at IMF’s headquarters, ii) Bank of Canada’s deputy governor Timothy Lane, iii) ECB’s supervisory board member Angeloni speaking at an Italian banking conference, as well as iv) Germany’s Merkel and EC President Juncker speaking at the 75th birthday of Germany’s longest serving finance minister.

    US Event Calendar
    • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 68
    • 11am: BOE Governor Carney Speaks at IMF in Washington, DC
    • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $7.7b
    • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $34.4b
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Mondays are the new Fridays. At least they are for me at the moment as being back to work allows me to escape from the madhouse at home. One example sums this up. At the moment we put the feeding bottles and expressing units in the steriliser case and then in the microwave every 3 hours. This goes on at 1000 watts for 6 minutes. We have now done this nearly 200 times in the 3 weeks of having the twins. We do it on autopilot and can literally do it in our sleep which we frequently do. So yesterday morning I get home from walking Bronte with Maisie to find the microwave on and the contents of it splattering everywhere within in. It only had 5 seconds to run, I rushed to turn it off and found that my wife had put her porridge in it and on autopilot left it cooking for 6 minutes on 1000 watts. It was absolutely everywhere and glued to the sides. For someone who is very switched on this showed how tired she is. She had collapsed on the sofa. My poor wife never did get round to eating her breakfast as the twins then demanded to feed again.

    This week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world and I'm not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May's speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg's calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment.

    Indeed bonds generally had a more difficult week than of late on the back of stronger than expected US and UK inflation, a hawkish shift from the BoE, a slightly less severe hurricane than feared in the US, and haven fatigue when it came to the still tense North Korean situation. Over the week, Gilts were clearly the underperformer with yields up c30bp across maturities (2Y: +27bp; 10Y +32bp). To be fair, other core bond yields were also up 6-15bp, with UST 10Y (2Y: +12bp; 10Y: +15bp), Bunds (2Y: +6bp; 10Y: +12bp) and French OATs (2Y: +7bp; 10Y: +9bp) all higher for the week. Peripheral bonds modestly outperformed, in particular Portugal where 10yr bond yields rose only 1bp for the week, likely supported by S&P’s upgrade of its sovereign credit rating back to investment grade.

    Bonds will probably take a lot of their lead from the Fed this week. They have been signalling for some time that reinvestment tapering will be announced at this meeting (Wednesday) with our expectations being that it will start on October 1st. Mrs Yellen's press conference and how she steers markets on the chances of a December hike will arguably be more important as will the latest dot plot changes. For those who have missed it, DB’s Peter Hooper has detailed the team’s expectations, with particular focus on potential changes to the Fed's forecasts, rate expectations in the dot plot, and inflation narrative. He expects the Committee will signal, via its economic projections and in Yellen’s commentary during the press conference, that it still anticipates raising rates one more time this year so long as incoming data are supporting its projections for inflation and growth.

    As for Mrs Merkel, assuming the polls are correct the main focus post the election will be on the composition of the coalition. This is the main area of uncertainty. The process normally takes 1-2 months but could take longer if negotiations are protracted.

    Not to be outdone by that power trio, we also have Mr Trump's debut speech (Tuesday morning) at the big UN get together in NY this week. Whilst not likely to be immediately market moving, his view on both the UN and America's role in the world are clearly vital issues going forward.

    This morning in Asia, markets have followed the positive lead from the US and are trading higher as we type. The Nikkei is closed for a holiday but the Kospi (+1.06%), Hang Seng (+1.01%), Chinese bourses (up c0.4%) and ASX 200 (+0.54%) are all higher.

    Quickly recapping the market’s performance on last Friday. The S&P edged up 0.18% to another record new high, closing marginally above 2,500. Elsewhere, both the Dow and the Nasdaq rose c0.3%. Within the S&P, gains were led by the telco sector (+1.78%), partly offset by weakness in health care and discretionary consumer sectors. European markets were modestly weaker, with the Stoxx 600 and Dax down 0.28% and 0.17% respectively, but the FTSE fell more (-1.10%), likely impacted by the more hawkish BOE, stronger pound and concerns about the fresh terrorist event on the London Underground.

    Moving to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.27% following lower than expected August retail sales figures. Elsewhere, Sterling jumped for the second consecutive day, up 1.46% against the Greenback and 1.21% vs. the Euro. In commodities, WTI oil was broadly unchanged, while precious metals (Gold -0.72%; Silver -1.16%) and base metals (Copper -0.40%; Aluminium -0.70%) fell modestly.

    Away from the markets, the BOE’s more hawkish message from Thursday was further reinforced by the usually dovish Gertjan Vlieghe (a member of the MPC), who in a speech on Friday said “The evolution of the data is increasingly suggesting that we are approaching the moment when bank rate may need to rise”. Elsewhere, the Centre for Economics and Business Research has upgraded the outlook for UK, now expecting economic growth of 1.6% (+0.3ppt) and 1.4% (+0.2ppt) in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The cause for the upgrade reflects a pickup in manufacturing and that the worst of the consumer spending squeeze has now passed.

    Staying in the UK, British executives from 120 businesses have signed a letter urging PM Theresa May to seek a three year transition period after Brexit, warning that failure to secure sufficient time would jeopardize “our collective prosperity”. Turning back to North Korea, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reiterated his preference for a diplomatic solution, he noted “if our diplomatic efforts fails… our military option will be the only left….but (let’s) be clear, we seek a peaceful solution to this”.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, macro data were overall slightly lower than expected. Headline August retail sales fell 0.2% mom (vs. +0.1% expected), this coupled with some modest downward revisions has meant through year growth is now 3.5% yoy. Core retail sales (ex-auto and gas) were also weaker than expected, down 0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected). While part of the weakness may have been due to the impacts from Hurricane Harvey, the underlying picture is still likely a bit softer nonetheless. Moving along, the August IP was also below market at -0.9% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). Core manufacturing output was down 0.3% mom, but according to the Fed’s estimates, Hurricane Harvey subtracted c0.75pps from both headline and manufacturing output in August, so the underlying performance of the manufacturing sector looks a bit stronger this month. Even so, the overall weakness in IP, when combined with the retail sales report, means that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model of Q3 GDP growth was slashed by eight-tenths to 2.2% saar. Elsewhere, the empire manufacturing survey beat at 24.4 (vs. 18 expected) and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was also above market at 95.3 (vs. 95 expected).

    Onto the week ahead now. Data wise Monday starts with the final reading of the Eurozone’s August inflation along with Italy’s trade balance. Over in the US, there is the NAHB Housing market index and total net TIC flows for July. Onto Tuesday, the Eurozone’s current account and construction output stats are due. There is also the ZEW survey on economic growth for Germany and the Eurozone. Over in the US, there are housing starts, building permits, current account balance and the import / export price index. Turning to Wednesday, Germany’s August PPI along with the Japanese trade balance and exports & imports stats will be out early in the morning. In the UK, there is the retail sales release for August. Over in the US, the main event is the FOMC rate decision along with data on MBA mortgage applications and existing home sales. For Thursday,Japan’s all industry activity index will be due early in the morning along with the BOJ policy rate decision later on. Then the Eurozone’s confidence index and ECB’s economic bulletin is also due. In the UK, data on the Finance loans for housing, private sector and public sector borrowing are due. Over in the US, there are numerous data, including: Conference board leading index, Philadelphia Fed business index, FHFA house price index, initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Finally on Friday, Japan will release data on the buying of Japanese bonds and stocks early in the morning. In France, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP and wages. Over in Canada, there is the August inflation and retail sales. Elsewhere, the Markit PMIs on services, manufacturing and Composite will be available for the US, Eurozone,Germany and France

    Onto other events, on Monday, US’s lead negotiator on the NAFTA talks will speak and lay out the US’s priorities. There are also other speakers, including: i) BOE’s governor Mark Carney giving a lecture at IMF’s headquarters, ii) Bank of Canada’s deputy governor Timothy Lane, iii) ECB’s supervisory board member Angeloni speaking at an Italian banking conference, as well as iv) Germany’s Merkel and EC President Juncker speaking at the 75th birthday of Germany’s longest serving finance minister. Moving to Tuesday, there is the general debate of the UN general assembly and Germany’s Merkel will give a preelection interview to RTL television. Turning to Wednesday, there is the FOMC rate decision in the US, followed by Yellen’s speech at 14:30 EDT. Elsewhere, EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier will speak and the OPEC’s panel of technical representatives will meet to discuss production cuts. Then onto Thursday, there is the BOJ rate decision. Back in Europe, the ECB’s Mario Draghi will give a welcome address at the European systemic risk board’s annual conference in Frankfurt and the ECB’s Frank Smets will also speak. Finally, on Friday, we have three Fed speakers, including John Williams, Esther George and Robert Kaplan. Over in Europe, the ECB’s Vice President Constancio will speak and the EU foreign ministers will also hold an informal meeting. In the UK, PM Theresa May will give her big speech updating her government’s position on Brexit.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...w-record-high-ahead-historic-fed-announcement
     
  5. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 18

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 18, 2017 7:51 AM

    • Caribbean Braces for Another Hurricane: Maria (WSJ)
    • Trump, Haley to share spotlight at U.N. gathering (Reuters)
    • UN ‘Club’ Trump Derided Forges Unexpected Alliance on Key Issues (BBG)
    • ‘We’ve Been Breached’: Inside the Equifax Hack (WSJ)
    • World stocks reach new peak as Fed-focused week begins (Reuters)
    • Korean peninsula draws range of military drills in show of force against North Korea (reuters)
    • North Korea says more sanctions will spur it to hasten nuclear plans (Reuters)
    • As ISIS Falters, Syrian Regime and U.S. Allies Maneuver for Advantage (WSJ)
    • Northrop Grumman to Buy Orbital ATK for $7.8 Billion (WSJ)
    • Saudis May Hike Domestic Gasoline Prices by 80% (BBG)
    • Why American Workers Pay Twice as Much in Taxes as Wealthy Investors (BBG)
    • Here’s How Tax Reform Could Squeeze the Middle Class (BBG)
    • Wall Street’s Trillion-Dollar Monopoly Has Repo Traders on Edge (BBG)
    • Filing ‘Chapter 22’ Entices Ailing Retailers (BBG)
    • Six Dreamers sue Trump administration over DACA decision (Reuters)
    • Texas Cities Struggle to House Thousands Displaced by Hurricane Harvey (WSJ)
    • More than 80 arrested as riot police break up St. Louis protest over officer's acquittal (Reuters)
    • Obama: From White House to Wall Street in Less Than One Year (BBG)
    • Audi takes lead in automated driving, but others wary to follow (Reuters)
    • Ray Dalio Says He’s Ready to Give Away Bridgewater’s Secrets (BBG)
    • Irma Stirs Fear of Setback to $16 Billion Everglades Restoration (BBG)
    • Hackers compromised free CCleaner software, Avast's Piriform says (Reuters)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - China's online insurer ZhongAn Online Property & Casualty Insurance Ltd IPO-ZAOL.HK said it plans to raise up to $1.5 billion in an initial public offering that could value the company at around $10 billion. on.wsj.com/2xrLMAx

    - Northrop Grumman Corp is nearing a deal to buy Orbital ATK Inc in a transaction that could be worth upward of $7.5 billion. on.wsj.com/2f3ziod

    - The Qatari and British governments have signed an agreement for the potential sale of 24 Eurofighter Typhoon combat jets worth several billion dollars, boosting plane maker BAE Systems. on.wsj.com/2xr0VSt

    - U.S. President Donald Trump's top economic adviser is expected to outline the administration's proposals to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions while restating that its stance on the Paris climate accord has not changed, White House officials said, following signals over the weekend that the United States was exploring ways to remain in the 2015 pact. on.wsj.com/2feyRem

    - The White House reiterated its position that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must give up his nuclear weapons, days after President Donald Trump hinted again at a military strike on the North. on.wsj.com/2fdLjLx

    - Tropical Storm Maria became Hurricane Maria Sunday, and was expected to strengthen during the next two days, becoming a major hurricane by Monday night and threatening the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by midweek, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. on.wsj.com/2fe6NId

    - A Canadian union failed to reach an agreement on a new contract with General Motors Co and its members will strike, labor leaders said late Sunday. on.wsj.com/2fe4ZPm


    FT

    Qatar’s defence minister signed a letter of intent to buy 24 Typhoon jets from BAE Systems Plc, bringing a much-needed boost to the British defence group after lack of new orders for the fighter jet.

    Autolus has taken a step towards developing UK’s first new wave “living medicine” cancer therapies as it launches clinical trials. The British start-up is looking to break into the field of “Car-T”, in which immune cells are extracted from patients, genetically engineered in the lab to fight cancer, and infused back into their bloodstream.

    Accountancy firm PwC is under fire over potential conflicts of interest after advising Britain’s top water watchdog, Ofwat, on pricing while working for several water and sewage companies.


    NYT

    - U.S. President Donald Trump's legal team is debating on how much to cooperate with the special counsel looking into Russian election interference, leading to an angry confrontation last week between two White House lawyers. nyti.ms/2xaXhKi

    - Wenner Media LLC is putting its controlling stake in the Rolling Stone magazine up for sale as it continues to shift from its print media business. nyti.ms/2hc73UW

    - ProPublica and the New York Times found in an analysis that almost every Medicare prescription drug plan in the U.S. covered common opioids and very few required any prior approval. nyti.ms/2jDspPC

    - Facebook and other tech companies are dealing with the consequences of the web not being as open as it once was, with nation-states exerting their power over the internet. nyti.ms/2wzL5Rx

    - The Trump administration is considering closing the recently reopened U.S. Embassy in Havana after 21 Americans associated with the embassy experienced a host of unexplained health problems. nyti.ms/2f4pzxI


    Britain

    The Times

    The chairman of BMW has warned "both sides would lose" if Britain and the European Union fail to strike a tariff-free deal for the automotive industry. In an interview with The Sunday Times, Harald Krüger said the German car giant was "flexible" on where it made its vehicles. (bit.ly/2fsOxYv)

    Vitruvian Partners, the private equity firm, has asked advisers at Deloitte and Raymond James to find a buyer or new investor for Instinctif Partners, one of the largest financial public relations firms in the City of London. (bit.ly/2fttllc)

    The AA Plc reneged on a promise to let Bob Mackenzie, its executive chairman, work part-time and instead piled on the pressure in a move that ultimately led to his dismissal, his legal team have alleged. (bit.ly/2ftoEHZ)

    The Guardian

    Ryanair Holdings Plc has tried to appease angry customers by publishing lists of all flights to be cancelled until Wednesday, after 82 failed to take off on Sunday, with the airline admitting it had mismanaged the planning of pilot holidays. (bit.ly/2fswaCS)

    EU leaders have agreed to make "swift" progress on raising the tax bills for digital giants such as Alphabet Inc unit Google Inc and Facebook Inc, despite warnings from smaller states that unilateral action could drive business away from Europe. (bit.ly/2ftn5K4)

    The Telegraph

    Plans for a new 500 million-pound private London hospital have been halted amid a slowdown in health tourism and spiralling property prices. Spire Healthcare Group Plc has put plans to take on arch hospital rivals HCA and Bupa on their home turf with a new medical facility in the heart of the capital on hold after hitting a rough patch. (bit.ly/2ftaRAY)

    British firms are a third more likely to come under pressure than their European counterparts, according to the latest "activist alert" report from consultant Alvarez & Marsal. (bit.ly/2ftspgy)

    Sky News

    Blackstone Group LP is‎ close to aborting an auction of St Katharine Docks, a marina complex close to Tower Bridge, after bidders baulked at the 435 million pound asking price. (bit.ly/2ftzU77)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/frontrunning-september-18
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-18-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Yen as well as gold can be affected on speculation that Japanese prime minister may called a snap general election next month. But first we have the FOMC meet this week and thereafter the German general elections and later US September nonfarm payrolls on 6th October. Over the next three weeks there are market moving news and events which can change direction of metals, energies and currency markets.
     
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    TVR [#403] 09-18-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: CENTRAL BANKS SMASH GOLD AND SILVER
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 18, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Toys ‘R’ Us files for BANKRUPTCY: Retailing giant becomes the latest victim of online shopping - leaving its 64,000 worldwide employees at risk
    • Toys 'R' Us, the iconic toy store, filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday
    • It is the latest victim to the online shopping industry
    • The first Toys 'R' Us opened in 1957 and the company has since become a worldwide phenomenon


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4897848/Toys-R-files-BANKRUPTCY.html#ixzz4t7KrDe2L
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    Are We Witnessing the Death Spiral of Cable Television?

    [​IMG]
    by TDB
    Sep 18, 2017 1:18 PM


    Via The Daily Bell

    Cable television has long been the coveted propaganda arm used to program American sentiments. But because of the internet, viewer choice for news, sports, and entertainment has proliferated. Content is becoming decentralized, and that makes it harder to control the attitudes of the masses.

    Since 2013, pay tv subscriptions have been declining, losing more customers than they gain. Over one million people per year are fleeing from paying for cable TV from companies like Verizon, Time Warner, and Comcast.

    For three straight years, the viewership of the Emmy’s has declined. Yet while cable networks broadcast the award show, original Hulu and HBO shows were winning the awards.

    You don’t need a cable subscription to watch shows on Netflix, HBO Now, or Hulu. While Netflix and Hulu run some cable shows, they also produce their own content. This doesn’t automatically mean the content won’t be akin to the typical propaganda on cable. But it does mean that control over programming is more decentralized. This includes the FCC’s slipping grip, as they have thus far failed to seriously regulate online programming.

    Now consumers have a choice. Youtube offers even more choices which allow independent and much smaller content producers to disseminate their shows. Owned by Google, there is plenty to criticize when it comes to Youtube. They arbitrarily remove certain content that they don’t like. But this will just bolster alternatives like Vimeo and DailyMotion.

    Amazon also offers subscription programming that goes along with their Prime program. Like Netflix, they are investing in making their own TV shows and movies to better compete with all the alternatives. An Amazon Prime 30-Day Free Trial lets you see what they got before committing.[​IMG]

    And whatever issues you may have with companies like Youtube and Amazon, there are now plenty other options available, with more coming.

    An exciting new startup called BadMirror.tv will soon go live. The company aims to tackle programming from a community perspective. They offer “hyperlocal broadcasting” that is boosted based on popularity but always starts locally. BadMirror.tvseeks to reconnect people to their community so that a handful of big executives–and whoever is influencing them–can’t centralize control over content, and decide what will be popular.

    Pride comes before the fall.

    A user base can vanish quickly when customers no longer get what they want from a business, and have plenty of alternatives.

    And we should expect viewers to go elsewhere as their favorite content starts leaving a bad taste in their mouth. For years, football has enjoyed tremendous ratings, insulated from the decline of other cable programming. But viewers have recently been turned off by excessive political correctness from the NFL, as well as protest displays from pro-football players which many view as unpatriotic and disrespectful to law enforcement.

    Overall viewership for the 2016 NFL season was down 8% per game, an average of 1.4 million fewer viewers per game compared to 2015. So far in the 2017 season just beginning, there has been a 14% decline in viewership.

    The kicker is that football has been counted on by Cable networks to save television. Sports games are still better watched live since hearing the score for a recorded game is a major spoiler. When you watch live, it is harder to get around the commercials. But people aren’t watching football as much, not even on alternative providers. The NFL has overplayed its hand in delving into politics.

    The good news is, as an individual, you don’t have to be affected by Cable TV one way or the other. You have the power to simply choose alternatives that don’t play into the machine of manipulation, fear, and drivel.

    Of course, another great alternative is to read books for entertainment. Go full Farenheight 451, reject the screens which take up whole walls of the living room, and become a literary outlaw.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/are-we-witnessing-death-spiral-cable-television
     
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    Gold, Silver & Platinum DOWN; Palladium UP! Why?
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Sep 18, 2017
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-19-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    The trend after the FOMC meet tomorrow in precious metals and currency markets will be interesting. Global shift to electric cars over the coming years can put copper and nickel prices into inertia in the next few years. Some electric cars makers are considering making the car body from Aluminum to reduce car weight. Aluminum could also get a boost from electric cars. Long term fundamentals are looking extremely bullish for industrial metals.
     
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    Global Equities Hit New All Time High Ahead Of The Fed; VIX < 10; Japan Stocks Surge

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 19, 2017 6:58 AM


    S&P futures are little changed as the Fed begins its two-day FOMC meeting pushing the VIX below 10, down 1.3% and falling for the 7th day; European shares are lower as is the dollar while Japanese stocks soar on the back of a tumbling yen as a snap election in Japan now appears imminent. Despite the cautious action ahead of the Fed, the The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.1% to a new record high.

    Among the notable overnight moves, the USDCNH climbed to highest since late August ahead of this week’s FOMC decision. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 1 bp; Australia’s 10-year gained 1 bp. Japanese equities rose 1.5% ahead of an expected snap election to be called by PM Abe this week; China and Hong Kong shares declined. WTI crude holds just below $50; Dalian iron ore contract dropped. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed before tomorrow’s Fed’s policy decision, when interest-rate projections are seen drawing more attention than any balance-sheet announcement as tapering is seen as a given. The euro was supported by unwinding of shorts against the pound and by yen selling amid improved risk appetite and reports of Japan PM Abe calling for snap elections. Treasuries were underpinned in Asian hours as Japanese investors returned after Monday’s holiday, while price action was muted in London trading.

    Meanwhile, nobody appeared concerned about tomorrow's Fed announcement, where the balance sheet unwind is expected while attention will focus on any revision to the Fed's dots. “We are not overly concerned about” the Fed’s quantitative-tightening plans, Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust head of fixed-income strategy Matthew Diczok told Bloomberg TV. “If you model it out, over about the next three years they’ll take out about $1.3 trillion or so. That’s only a third of what they put into the market. So it’s going to be very slow, very gradual, very deliberate and it shouldn’t lead to any near-term fireworks into the market at all.”


    Following the recent improvement in data, December rate hike odds once again rose back to 50%, suggesting another rate hike may be possible this year.

    [​IMG]


    JP Morgan Asset Management portfolio manager Iain Stealey said markets were now fully set for the Fed to officially announce it will cut, or taper, the amount it re-invests from the profits of its $4.2 trillion crisis-era bond portfolio. “They have already announced the amounts they are going to start with, $10 billion on a monthly basis and probably starting over the next month or so,” Stealey said. “What may be more important to keep an eye on is the dot-plot. We still think they will have the dots set up to expect one more hike this year, which will obviously be in December, and three next year.”

    With little in terms of overnight newsflow, the highlight was Japanese shares which surged to their highest level in more than two years as the yen weakened for a third day, bolstering appetite for electronics makers, autos and banks. Japanese equities gained on expectations Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call a snap election. As reported on Sunday, Prime Minister Abe is considering calling a poll for as early as next month to take advantage of his improved approval ratings in the wake of the North Korea crisis, and disarray in the main opposition party, according to sources. The benchmark Topix index extended gains after capping its best week since April on Friday, as investor focus shifted to economic fundamentals from concerns over North Korea. The yen dropped to an almost two-month low against the dollar Tuesday.

    Abe said Monday he’ll decide on calling a snap election after he returns from a trip to the U.S., confirming our previous report that he’s considering calling a vote a vote more than a year early, prompting speculation for more fiscal stimulus while keeping the BOJ on hold. “The weaker yen is providing tail wind to export-related stocks” after the market shrugged off the North Korea’s missile launch last week, Hiroaki Hiwada, a strategist at Toyo Securities told Bloomberg. “The equity market is taking the news about a possible snap election positively as it boosts expectations Abe’s coalition parties will retain power.” As a result, "Japanese shares generally gain around calls to hold new elections", Nomura Securities wrote in a report.

    Stefan Worrall, director of Japan equity sales at Credit Suisse in Tokyo said there has been concern growing for a while among foreign investors about the future of Abe’s stimulus-focused Abenomics program. “If Abe is cemented in power for another few years, that would be a market-positive event,” he said. “Certainty is preferred to uncertainty, when it comes to market confidence.”

    The Nikkei’s 2 percent jump overnight took its gain to almost 30 percent since Abe took power in late 2012.

    Another notable overnight move was the sudden drop in the yuan, where the CNH tumbled to a two-and-a-half week low as a state-run firm was said to be buying dollars to make dividend payments. The onshore yuan dropped as much as 0.34% to 6.5987 per dollar and was down 0.12% at 6.5838 as of this morning. In addition to the currency move, the PBOC pumps in net 150b yuan ($23b) via reverse- repurchase agreements, after adding 300b yuan Monday.

    [​IMG]

    Elsewhere in Asia the mood had been more subdued. South Korean shares dipped 0.1 percent, against a backdrop of caution ahead of the Fed meeting as well as continuing tensions on the Korean peninsula. The MSCI Emerging Market Index decreased 0.3 percent, the largest dip in more than two weeks. Asian stock traded cautiously ahead of the FOMC and as the region failed to maintain the early impetus from US where financials led the S&P 500 and DJIA to fresh record closes. Australia's ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.0%) were positive in which the latter surged as it played catch up to the gains on return from holiday, while weakness in defensive stocks restricted upside in Australia. Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) were dampened despite another firm PBoC liquidity operation, with the underperformance in China the rest of the region attributed to profit taking. The PBOC injected net 150b yuan in open-market operations on Tuesday, bringing the additions since last Thursday to 750b yuan. 10yr JGBs lacked demand amid the positive risk tone in Japan and although the BoJ were present in the bond market, this was for a relatively reserved JPY 535bln total.

    In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was fractionally in the red, amid mixed regional benchmarks. Gauges from Hong Kong to South Korea had retreated earlier, even as Japan soared following a holiday on Monday. Germany’s DAX Index decreased 0.1 percent while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.2%. The pound reversed an advance as investors weighed the latest political disarray over Brexit strategy, and the euro headed for a fourth daily advance. Elevated risk appetite in Europe meanwhile saw the gap between Portuguese and Italian 10-year government bond yields narrow to levels not seen since the start of the euro zone debt crisis of 2010-2012. That followed a strong rally in Portuguese debt over the last two sessions, after S&P became the first major ratings agency to give the country back an investment grade rating, more than five years after it first sank into junk territory.

    In currencies, Britain's sterling also started to retreat again having been pushed off post Brexit highs on Monday by Bank of England governor Mark Carney who said any upcoming UK rate hikes would be gradual and limited. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell less than 0.05 percent. The euro increased 0.2 percent to $1.1978, the strongest in more than a week. The British pound decreased 0.1 percent to $1.3477.

    In commodity markets, metals shifted lower and oil prices steadied near last week’s multi-month highs. Traders braced for a potential stockpile build-up expected later this week, limiting the prospect for further gains. U.S. crude futures were up 19 cents at just above $50 per barrel, within sight of Thursday’s nearly four-month high of $50.50. Brent crude hovered at $55.50, not far from an almost five-month high of $55.99 it had marked that day.

    In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.22 percent, the largest fall in more than a week. Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.45 percent, the biggest fall in more than a week. Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 1.281 percent, the largest fall in more than a week.

    On the news front, President Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations on Tuesday for the first time as world leaders continue to seek a diplomatic solution to North Korea’s nuclear provocations. Data include August housing starts and 2Q current account. Adobe, AutoZone, Copart, FedEx are among companies reporting earnings. The Iraq Oil Minister said he does not think now that there is a need for more output reductions, but if there was a need for more cuts in the future, Iraq will support consensus within OPEC, Adding, that there are proposals for more cuts, but he does not think it will be implemented, but will be studied.

    Bulletin Headline Summary
    • European bourses trade with little in the way of firm direction ahead of upcoming risk events this week
    • GBP/USD saw some selling pressure early doors with initial gains in USD/JPY trimmed throughout the session
    • Looking ahead, highlights include NZ Dairy Auction and US APIs
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,503.20
    • VIX Index down 1.3%, falling for the 7th day
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 381.66
    • MSCI Asia up 0.5% to 164.03
    • MSCIA Asia ex Japan down 0.3% to 543.02
    • Nikkei up 2% to 20,299.38
    • Topix up 1.8% to 1,667.88
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,051.41
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,356.84
    • Sensex up 0.09% to 32,453.75
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,713.58
    • Kospi down 0.09% to 2,416.05
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.449%
    • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1984
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.78%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.573%
    • Brent futures up 0.3% to $55.67/bbl
    • Gold spot little changed at $1,308.52
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 91.87
    Top Overnight News
    • EU wants the Paris-based regulator European Securities and Markets Authority to get a bigger role in reviewing fund managers’ activities, Financial Times reports, citing plans seen
    • Japanese Prime Minister said he is considering dissolving parliament to hold a snap general election, ruling Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai told reporters in Tokyo; Abe to express his intention to dissolve the Lower House at a press conference on Sept. 25, FNN reports, without attribution
    • French President Macron is planning to provide details on his proposals for euro-zone reforms in a speech on the future of EU on Sept. 26, FT reports, citing unidentified aides; proposal includes a separate budget, a finance ministry and a European Monetary Fund
    • Norway’s sovereign wealth fund hit $1 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, driven higher by climbing stock markets and a weaker U.S. dollar
    • Germany ZEW Sept. survey expectations 17 vs est. +12
    • Toys ‘R’ Us Seeks Bankruptcy, Crushed by Debt and Online Rivals
    • BNP Among Firms Said to Be Eyeing Axa Asset- Management Tie-Up
    • Mexico’s Femsa Sells $3 Billion Stake in Brewer Heineken
    • Park Hotels Is Said to Seek Over $500 Million for 15 Properties
    • Bayer Sees Monsanto Transaction Closing Delayed to Early 2018
    • Wall Street’s Bond Gurus Have It All Wrong as QE Unwind Looms
    • Trump at UN to Urge Action on North Korea, Iran Threat; U.S. to Act on North Korea Rockets That Pose Threat, Mattis Says
    • Maria Weakens as Storm Passes Dominica on Way to Puerto Rico
    • Brexit Rift Widens as Johnson Talks of Life After Government
    Asia equity markets traded with a cautious tone as the FOMC draws closer and after the region failed to maintain the early impetus from US where financials led the S&P 500 and DJIA to fresh record closes. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.0%) were initially positive in which the latter surged as it played catch up to the gains on return from holiday, while weakness in defensive stocks restricted upside in Australia. Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) were dampened despite another firm PBoC liquidity operation, with the underperformance in China the rest of the region attributed to profit taking. 10yr JGBs lacked demand amid the positive risk tone in Japan and although the BoJ were present in the bond market, this was for a relatively reserved JPY 535bln total. PBoC injected CNY 130bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5530 (Prev. 6.5419). Japanese PM Abe is told hold a press conference on Monday 25th September; comes in the context of recent speculation that he could call a snap election.

    Top Asian News
    • Hong Kong Dollar Surges With Hibor Rates as HKMA Mops Up Cash
    • Goldman Sachs Names Hitchner Chairman, CEO Asia-Pacific Ex- Japan
    • Markets Are Betting That Japan’s Abe Would Win a Snap Election
    • Alibaba Is Said to Buy $100 Million in Best Inc.’s Downsized IPO
    • Tata Is Said to Be Boosting Carmaker Stake for $312 Million
    European equity markets trade in subdued fashion, as much anticipation remains on the FOMC tomorrow. EU bourses are mixed for the session, failing to gather any bullish impetus from another record close on Wall Street, not helped by a morning bullish grind in the Euro. Equity specific stories have also dragged down markets, noticeably, Heineken is a leading faller, down close to 4%, after bottler and retailer Femsa has sold a 5.24% stake in the firm. Kantar and Nielsen released their 12-week supermarket sales, helped lead to Sainsbury’s and Morrisons to be two of the out-performers in the FTSE. The grocer optimism has not spread however, with despite what appeared to be strong results for Ocado, the concerns of rising costs have seen the Co. down over 4%. Bond markets have traded in a consolidated range through the European morning. Spreads have seen some marginal volatility, the 10y Spain/Germany has been tightening on the back of Portuguese bonds. PGBs continue to stand out, being down as much as 2-4.0bps along the curve, with the 10y trading through -2.40%. Supply has come from the DMO this morning who came to market with a 30yr auction which drew a smaller b/c than previous (albeit still healthy at 1.97) and a wider tail than previous but did little to cause traction in longer duration paper.

    Top European News
    • Merkel Eyes BMW Homeland for Final Election Boost After Spat
    • Carney Says U.K. Rate Increase Looms in Brexit-Hobbled Economy
    In currencies, the pound has seen some marginal selling this morning, as cable looks to attempt a break through yesterday’s low. Position unwinding in cable is evident as the Fed is due tomorrow, with buyers potentially not convinced by Carney’s 'gradual and limited’ comments. Elsewhere, an upbeat ZEW report from Germany failed to inspire any noteworthy price action in the EUR. USD/JPY caught a bid heading into European trade after breaking above the prior session’s highs before dissipating throughout the EU session. AUD was largely unreactive to an unsurprising minutes release where the RBA stuck to its usual rhetoric.

    In commodities, oil markets have been relatively unfazed by the speech from the Iraq Oil Minister who said there are proposals for more OPEC cuts, yet with no clear clarity the OPEC extension comments seem disconcerting to markets. WTI crude futures has seemed to consolidate above 49.50, above 50/bbl and looking to break through 50.50, where stops are likely to be triggered. Price action in metals has been subdued overnight with copper also relatively subdued.

    Looking at the day ahead, there are housing starts, building permits, current account balance and the import / export price index. President Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations on Tuesday for the first time as world leaders continue to seek a diplomatic solution to North Korea’s nuclear provocations.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.17m, prior 1.16m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.65%, prior -4.8%
      • Building Permits, est. 1.22m, prior 1.22m; Building Permits MoM, est. -0.81%, prior -4.1%
    • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $116.0b deficit, prior $116.8b deficit
    • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%; Import Price Index YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 1.5%
      • Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%; Export Price Index YoY, prior 0.8%
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It's been a quiet start to the week ahead of the important Fed meeting today and tomorrow, but no news is good news as risk continues to recover from a few difficulties in recent weeks. In fact the VIX briefly fell below 10 yesterday for the first time since the 7th of August (closed 10.15). Elsewhere, the S&P edged up 0.15% to consolidate around its record high.

    There was a bit more action in sovereign bond yields yesterday, in particular for Portugal where its 10y yields fell 37bp, mainly reflecting S&P’s upgrade of its credit rating back to investment grade (BBB-) - the first main agency to do so since 2012. The spread to Bunds has now narrowed to 196bp, which is the lowest since January 2016. Other peripherals slightly outperformed too, with Italian BTPs (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -1bp) and Spanish (2Y: +0.5bp; 10Y: -1.6bp) yields down c1bp, with Ireland’s 10y yields unchanged after Moody’s upgraded its rating from A3 to A2-. Core bond yields underperformed, but changes were modest, with Bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +2bp) and Gilts (2Y: +3bp; 10Y: unch) up slightly, while UST 10yr also rose 2.6bp.

    Turning to the UK, BOE’s governor Carney spoke at IMF’s headquarters and reiterated the need for some withdrawal of stimulus if the UK economy evolves as expected. On rates, he noted that there are global factors that could justify UK’s potential move to hike rates, in part as UK’s monetary policy “has to move in order to stand still” and that Brexit undermines UK’s supply capacity and makes it harder for the economy to grow without generating inflationary pressures. However, relative to the hawkish BOE tone set last week, some interpreted his rate hike comments of “gradual and to a limited extent” as a bit dovish, partly contributing to a softening in Sterling yesterday (-0.73%). On Brexit, he said there remains “considerable risks to the UK outlook” and that the Brexit process would weigh on the economy’s potential growth for a period.

    Elsewhere, at a Reuter’s interview, ECB’s governing council member Ardo Hansson reiterated that solid Eurozone growth will allow the ECB to dial back stimulus but normalisation will be gradual. Notably, he called out that ECB’s “forward guidance could be more precise about interest rates”.

    This morning in Asia, markets are paring back initial gains and are now trading broadly unchanged ahead of the FOMC meeting. As we type, the Nikkei is up 1.47%, partly playing catch up as the market was closed yesterday for holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.07%), Kospi (-0.05%) and ASX 200 (+0.05%) are fairly flat. The UST 10y is also trading a bit firmer (-1bp) this morning. In his first visit to the UN, President Trump has said that a decision on Iran’s nuclear deal will be seen “very soon” and that the UN has not reached its full potential. Trump's first official address will occur later today so eyes will be on that.

    Turning back to markets yesterday. Equities strengthened further in both the US and Europe, but changes were modest, in part as investors await for the FOMC meeting. The S&P edged 0.15% higher, while the Nasdaq and the Dow rose 0.10% and 0.28% respectively. Within the S&P, gains were led by the financials (+1.02%) and materials sector, partly offset by losses from utilities. European markets were all higher, with the Stoxx and DAX both up c0.3%, while the FTSE firmed 0.52% following four consecutive days of losses.

    Currency markets were fairly quiet excluding the changes for Sterling, where it weakened 0.73% and 0.77% versus the Greenback and Euro respectively. Elsewhere, the US dollar index gained 0.19% and EURUSD rose 0.08%. In commodities, WTI oil was broadly flat again while precious metals fell (Gold -0.97%; Silver -2.15%) given the bias away from safe haven assets. Elsewhere, base metals as per LME prices have broadly increased, with Copper (+0.31%), Aluminium (+0.17%) and Zinc (+2.21%) all slightly higher.

    Away from the markets and onto the topic of elections. In Spain, the Catalan government has passed a law organising an independence referendum on 1 October, although the move has been ruled illegal by the Spanish courts and government. The Spanish economy minister Luis de Guindos warned yesterday that Catalonia’s independence would result in an automatic exit from the EU and that the hit to Catalonia’s economy would be “brutal”, with GDP falling 25%-30% and unemployment to double. The Catalonia region accounts for c20% of Spain’s GDP. Moody’s noted earlier the vote was negative for credit, but it expects the Catalonia region to remain part of Spain.

    Over in Germany, according to ARD Deutschland-trend, the winner of the upcoming election seems to be clearly Merkel’s CDU/CSU party, but the composition of the next coalition is not so clear. DB’s Stefan Schneider takes a look at the coalition scenarios and their possible implications for Germany’s economic and EU policies as well as financial markets. For more details Turning to Japan, there were weekend reports that PM Shinzo Abe is considering an earlier Lower House election sometime in October 2017. Our Japanese team notes the move appears to be motivated by a rebound in Abe’s approval ratings and his potential intent to lengthen his time in power. Our team thinks that a key economic focus in this election (if it takes place),could be whether the consumption tax should be raised as planned in October 2019 from 8% to 10% and a transformation of the social security system from one orientated towards the elderly to one focused on all generations.

    Before we move to today’s calendar a few things to wrap up. First the latest ECB CSPP holdings were released yesterday. They bought €2.12bn last week which equates to €423mn/dayvs. €348mn/day since CSPP started. After the summer lull and with more primary issuance, the ECB have made up for the low levels of summer buying with the CSPP/PSPP ratio of net purchases at 19.2% last week (vs. 13.6%, 12%, 10.3%, 9.6%, 11.4% in previous weeks). The CSPP/PSPP ratio since the taper in April has been c.12.9% which is higher than the pre-taper ratio of 11.6%. So still suggesting the ECB has tapered credit purchases less than Government bonds.

    Circling back to Brexit, Oliver Robbins has left his post as the official in charge of the Brexit department to focus full time on the Brexit negotiations. This coupled with PM Theresa May’s big speech later this week could add momentum back to the stalled negotiation talks with the EU.

    Finally, turning to a fairly quiet day for key macro data, in the US, the NAHB Housing market index was slightly lower than expected at 64 (vs. 67), with both the current sales and sales expectations indices returning to their July readings. In Europe, the final reading of Eurozone’s August inflation was unchanged, with headline inflation at 1.5% yoy (0.3% mom) and core at 1.2% yoy. Italy’s total trade balance for July increased to $6.6bln (vs. $4.5bln previous). In the UK, the Rightmove index pointed to a further softening of the housing market in September, with nationwide asking prices falling 1.2% mom, leaving annual growth at 1.1% yoy – the slowest pace since February 2012.

    Looking at the day ahead, the Eurozone’s current account and construction output stats are due. There is the ZEW survey on economic growth for Germany and the Eurozone. Over in the US, there are housing starts, building permits, current account balance and the import / export price index. Onto other events, Germany’s Merkel will give a pre-election interview to RTL television.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...time-high-ahead-fed-vix-10-japan-stocks-surge
     
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    Frontrunning: September 19

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 19, 2017 8:11 AM

    • Markets Brace for Fed’s Big Move: The End of Easy Money (WSJ)
    • Senate GOP Has 12 Days to Repeal Obamacare and No Room for Error (BBG)
    • Senate GOP Considers a Trillion-Dollar-Plus Tax Cut for Budget (WSJ)
    • In first speech at U.N., Trump to single out North Korea, Iran (Reuters)
    • Trump to Push Nationalist Policy in First U.N. Address (WSJ)
    • Trump Will Call for Action on North Korea, Iran in First UN Address (BBG)
    • A Guide to the Senate’s Three Health-Care Proposals (WSJ)
    • Wall Street’s Bond Gurus Have the Fed’s Balance-Sheet Unwind All Wrong (BBG)
    • Maria Regains Category 5 Strength on Path to USVIs and Puerto Rico (BBG)
    • Mattis hints at military options on North Korea but offers no details (Reuters)
    • Bond King Bill Gross Falls to the Middle of the Pack (BBG)
    • Toys ‘R’ Us Seeks Bankruptcy, Crushed by Debt and Online Rivals (BBG)
    • China’s Backdoor Real-Estate Bailout (WSJ)
    • Equifax Discloses Earlier Cybersecurity Incident (WSJ)
    • Brooklyn Seen as Best Bet for NYC to Win New Amazon Headquarters (BBG)
    • What If an Irma-Like Hurricane Hit the New York City Metro Area? (BBG)
    • The World’s Biggest Sovereign Wealth Fund Hits $1 Trillion (BBG)
    • Ex-SAC trader says he forgot facts, seeks to void insider trading plea (Reuters)
    • J Coin: Japanese banks' virtual currency without the volatility (Reuters)
    • Swiss shut down 'fake' E-Coin in latest cryptocurrency crackdown (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Toys 'R' Us Inc (IPO-TOYS.N), filed for bankruptcy protection late Monday night, undone by a hefty debt load and the rapid shift to online shopping. on.wsj.com/2fi5F6d

    - Alphabet Inc's Google on Monday launched its first-ever smartphone app that lets users transfer money to individuals and businesses in the country without the use of a credit or a debit card. on.wsj.com/2fgumjk

    - Hurricane Maria barreled into the eastern Caribbean late Monday as a dangerous Category 5 storm, ripping roofs from homes, knocking out electricity on the island of Dominica and threatening others in the region already ravaged by Hurricane Irma. on.wsj.com/2fgRMoZ

    - Cisco Systems Inc's executive chairman, John Chambers, is stepping down in December. The company plans to appoint Chief Executive Chuck Robbins as the next chairman. on.wsj.com/2ff4zIr

    - Roku Inc said it expects to raise up to $219 million in its initial public offering, as the maker of streaming-media devices set a price range for its planned listing that would value the company between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion. on.wsj.com/2ffYBXF

    - Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker signed a bill Monday that would give Taiwan's Foxconn Technology Group $3 billion in economic incentives to open a mega-plant in the state. on.wsj.com/2fgtziD

    - The U.S. has military options available for North Korea that would not put South Korea at grave risk of counterattack, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday, but he refused to spell out what those are. on.wsj.com/2fgQk62

    - Equifax Inc hired cyber security experts to deal with an incident on its corporate networks in March, two months before the massive hack began that it has said led to the potential compromise of personal data belonging to 143 million U.S. consumers. on.wsj.com/2ffLGFu


    FT

    Activist investor Nelson Peltz has urged in a letter to shareholders to vote him on the Procter & Gamble Co’s board at next month’s annual meeting.

    U.S. aircraft maker Boeing Co was warned on Monday that if it presses ahead with a competition case against Bombardier Inc then both Canada and Britain might block future procurement contracts with it.

    Rolling Stone co-founder Jann Wenner is selling his controlling stake in the magazine amidst revenue declines and suffered circulation as the publishing industry moves from print to digital.

    Cisco Systems Inc said on Monday Chairman John Chambers is going to step down. His departure comes as the company is going through an upheaval in its business caused by the rise of cloud computing.


    NYT

    - Federal authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the massive data breach at Equifax, which potentially exposed the personal information of up to 143 million Americans, including their Social Security and driver's license numbers. nyti.ms/2fggCVS

    - Congressional efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act sprang back to life on Monday as Senate Republicans pushed for a showdown vote on new legislation that would do away with many of the health law's requirements and bundle its funding into giant block grants to the states. nyti.ms/2xsUsGE

    - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration officials, under pressure from the White House to provide a rationale for reducing the number of refugees allowed into the United States next year, rejected a study by the Department of Health and Human Services that found that refugees brought in $63 billion more in government revenues over the past decade than they cost. nyti.ms/2xbwHmS

    - Workers at a General Motors assembly plant in Ontario went on strike late Sunday as union leaders reported an impasse in talks to keep Canadian jobs from moving to Mexico. nyti.ms/2ylq1Qz

    - Under a federal settlement, the National Collegiate Student Loan Trusts will refund millions to borrowers and temporarily suspend debt collections. nyti.ms/2ff7IYL

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Torxen Resources Ltd, led by former Cenovus Energy Inc Chief Operating Officer John Brannan, is leading a bid to acquire a major Alberta natural gas property from his former employer, a deal that could be worth up to C$600 million ($489 million), sources say. tgam.ca/2hbQlIR

    ** Mortgage Professionals Canada say tougher borrowing rules proposed by Canada's banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, could reduce the volume of home sales in Canada by 10-15 percent annually as buyers find it harder to qualify for loans. tgam.ca/2hf4oK4

    ** The number of women serving on the boards of Toronto Stock Exchange-listed companies edged roughly two percentage points higher in the first half of the year, according to a new report by law firm Osler Hoskin & Harcourt LLP. tgam.ca/2hcvHIE

    NATIONAL POST

    ** The Fraser Institute said in a report released on Tuesday that Ontario's plan to increase the province's minimum wage to C$15 per hour by 2019 could increase the chance that less skilled workers, especially young people, will be "priced out" of a tougher labour market. bit.ly/2heHBOA

    ** The Ontario plant where about 2,800 General Motors of Canada Co auto workers decide to strike Sunday is "the poster child for what's wrong with NAFTA", the union president of Unifor Local 88 Dan Borthwick said after negotiators failed to reach a tentative agreement. bit.ly/2hfQuaz


    Britain

    The Times

    -Theresa May has summoned ministers to a special cabinet meeting at which she will seek to bind Boris Johnson to her vision of Brexit on the eve of a key speech this week. bit.ly/2w4RPHs

    -The alleged Parsons Green attacker may have built his bomb in a shed at the bottom of the back garden of his Surrey foster home, police have said. bit.ly/2f6HRPe

    The Guardian

    -The government needs to step in to help tackle the mountain of debt being racked up by consumers in Britain, the chief financial regulator has warned, as new data shows that personal debt burdens are continuing to rise. bit.ly/2w3ln8z

    -Chris Geoghegan, father of the Bell Pottinger executive at the centre of the South Africa scandal that brought down the City PR firm, has resigned from his role as a board member of London-listed pest control and hygiene firm Rentokil Initial Plc .

    The Telegraph

    -The row over state subsidies for Canadian planemaker Bombardier Inc topped talks between Theresa May and Justin Trudeau, with the British and Canadian prime ministers vowing to fight to protect jobs in their countries. bit.ly/2w3wlLj

    -Ryanair could have to fork out 20 million euros ($23.92 million) in compensation as it moved to cancel the flights of roughly 400,000 passengers after admitting to "messing up" the allocation of holiday to its pilots. bit.ly/2f6DBz2

    Sky News

    -British holiday carrier Monarch Airlines is working with KPMG on options for the sale or restructuring of its short-haul business through a joint venture or feeder deal with another airline. bit.ly/2w4SiJI

    -The entrepreneurs who founded TransferWise, Taavet Hinrikus and Kirsto Kaarmann, are poised to land windfalls worth millions of pounds by selling their first shares in the company they founded six years ago. bit.ly/2w4jqbJ

    The Independent

    -Uber will have to pay 2.9 million pounds ($3.92 million) over the next five years to operate in London, under a new licensing fee structure due to be introduced by Transport for London this week. ind.pn/2w3wxu1

    -Michael Kors Holdings Ltd is set to complete its proposed 900 million pounds ($1.22 billion) takeover of Jimmy Choo Plc after more than 98 percent of shareholders of the luxury shoemaker backed the bid at a meeting. ind.pn/2f7rQIO

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/frontrunning-september-19
     
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    TVR [#404] 09-19-2017 LIVE CHAT: BLACK OPS TRADING ROOM SQUAWK
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 19, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Lessons learned from this summer's natural disasters
    Sep 19, 2017 by Neil Abt in The Open Road


    Related Media
    [​IMG]
    Focus is on fuel deliveries, restoring electrical power in Irma's aftermath


    From Hurricane Harvey in Texas, Irma in Florida, and wildfires in the west, a large portion of the United States has been impacted by natural disasters this summer.

    Even with the damage from these events estimated at many billions of dollars, it appears things could have been far worse, had there been significant damage to oil refineries or more areas that serve as major freight transportation hubs.

    As several new storms were churning in the Atlantic last week, I spoke about the state of the transportation industry’s preparedness with Bernie Kavanagh, general manager for North America large fleet at WEX Inc.


    [​IMG]
    While much of the nation's attention has been focused on hurricanes, wildfires have burned more than 8 million acres of land across the west coast. (Photo: Oregon DOT)

    Kavanagh, whose company offers fuel cards, payment processing, and other services, said he believes this summer’s events have been widespread enough for most transportation firms to take note.

    “Many things can get taken for granted, or you just don’t realize the importance until it is too late,” he said.

    Popular Now
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    Media coverage is also helping.

    “Years ago, we didn’t realize the impact of some of these storms,” Kavanagh said. Now, however, we all see it on television and better understand how it affects the supply chain, even for those potentially located far away, he added.

    Kavanagh’s advice for fleets is to think more about “things that can be done well in advance,” rather than being reactive.

    In particular, he recommended fleets look at their fuel purchasing programs. While they may normally allow a maximum of two fueling transactions in a day, they should consider an emergency profile that removes limits and can be put in place ahead of serious events.

    [​IMG]
    WEX's Bernie Kavanagh

    “How quickly can you change controls?” Kavanagh said carriers should ask themselves.

    He also said fleets should review their fuel supply agreements, and secure a relationship with an emergency fuel responder or mobile fuel provider in the event of natural disasters.

    “If doesn’t cost anything but you can get fuel there if needed,” he said.

    He compared the idea with fleets that hedged on fuel prices several years back when diesel was more than $4 a gallon.

    Even though prices have remained lower for a number of years, making hedging a potentially unattractive option at the moment, “that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be prepared,” he said.

    Looking back to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Kavanagh recalled stories of tanker trucks trying to provide fuel to truckers, only to realize they did not have the correct nozzle for transferring to individual vehicles.

    “We’ve learned a lot of lessons,” he said, adding that the increased use of telematics and social media has helped make it easier to overcome these difficult situations.

    Let’s hope we all continue to learn lessons from this summer’s natural disasters as well.

    http://fleetowner.com/blog/lessons-...m=email&elq2=889a2f6821af4aa2a7eeeebe227b274a
     
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    Silver Manipulation, Gold Demand, BTC Bubble & Economic Conflict
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 19, 2017
    Todays headlines and news on the Junius Maltby Channel. Join us as we look at various topics from Gold demand in Japan, Silver manipulation, the ETF market, and a closing word on Bitcoin.
    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
    Channel Coin: https://qualitysilverbullion.com/prod...

    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
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    Really Bad Ideas, Part 4: Federal Flood Insurance

    By: John Rubino
    [​IMG]


    -- Published: Tuesday, 19 September 2017

    As Hurricanes Harvey and Irma wreaked their havoc over the past couple of weeks, several interconnected questions popped up, the answers to which make us look, to put it bluntly, like idiots.

    Why, for instance, are there suddenly so many Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes? Is this due to man-made climate change and is this summer therefore our new normal? The answer: Maybe, but that misses the point. There have always been huge storms (like the one that wiped Galveston, TX off the map in 1900, long before global warming was a thing), and barring another ice age there always will be. So the US east coast will remain one of Mother Nature’s favorite targets.

    A second (and vastly more pertinent) question is why we’ve been encouraging millions of people to move into this bulls-eye in recent decades. Since 2000, Houston and surrounding Harris County have added 1.2 million people. Since 1980 Florida has added 10 million people – most of them in the coastal corridor from Miami to Fort Lauderdale.

    Seems a little unwise, doesn’t it, to put tens of millions of people and millions of houses and cars where they’re guaranteed to be damaged or destroyed by inevitable future storms. But it’s not an accident. Government programs actively encourage this migration by picking up part or all of the tab for homes that are flooded by storms. The result: A massive and growing liability for future damage on top of all the other massive and growing liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, underfunded state and local pensions, etc. From last week’s Wall Street Journal:


    One House, 22 Floods: Repeated Claims Drain Federal Insurance Program
    Brian Harmon had just finished spending over $300,000 to fix his home in Kingwood, Texas, when Hurricane Harvey sent floodwaters “completely over the roof.”


    The six-bedroom house, which has an indoor swimming pool, sits along the San Jacinto River. It has flooded 22 times since 1979, making it one of the most flood-damaged properties in the country.

    Between 1979 and 2015, government records show the federal flood insurance program paid out more than $1.8 million to rebuild the house—a property that Mr. Harmon figured was worth $600,000 to $800,000 before Harvey hit late last month.
    “It’s my investment,” the 49-year-old said this summer, before the hurricane. “I can’t just throw it away.”

    In years past, he had considered a buyout from local officials seeking to purchase often-flooded properties. Now, he finally wants to get out. “I never want to go through this again,” said Mr. Harmon, who bought the house in 1995.

    As they tally up the losses from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, government officials are looking for ways to step up purchases of frequently-flooded houses, which have become a huge drain on the financially troubled federal flood insurance program.

    Homes and other properties with repetitive flood losses account for just 2% of the roughly 1.5 million properties that currently have flood insurance, according to government estimates. But such properties have accounted for about 30% of flood claims paid over the program’s history.

    The Government’s Growing Flood Problem
    Can the federal government afford to insure homes that face repeated flooding? Already roughly $25 billion in debt, the National Flood Insurance Program is facing massive new claims following hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “We are seeing a very acute need to move far faster” on property buyouts, said Roy Wright, who directs the National Flood Insurance Program. “It’s a clear priority to address these multiple-loss properties.”

    In a buyout program, homes are typically razed and the land left as open space.

    Even before Harvey and Irma, the flood program owed the U.S. Treasury $24.6 billion, as payouts have exceeded the amount of insurance premiums it takes in.

    The program paid out more than $47 billion in insurance claims since 2000, according to government figures.

    Insurance payouts from Harvey alone are expected to total $11 billion, said Mr. Wright, noting the program had already received nearly 85,000 claims tied to the disaster as of Wednesday. It is too early to estimate losses tied to Irma, but Mr. Wright expects both storms to be among the most costly in the program’s history.

    Florida and Texas, the two states hit hardest by the back-to-back disasters, are home to nearly one in five of the most frequently flooded properties, according to an analysis of federal flood insurance data by the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group that supports increased buyouts.

    Nearly half of frequently flooded properties in the U.S. have received more in total damage payments than the flood program’s estimate of what the homes are worth, according to the group’s calculations.

    “Anyone looking at this would say there are perverse incentives for staying on the floodplain,” said Nicholas Pinter, a geology professor and associate director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California, Davis, who has analyzed repeatedly flooded properties.

    Mr. Wright said he has “no authority to cancel policies, none at all” when homes suffer multiple losses. The agency can, however, put “folks who have multiple losses in a position where they have the opportunity to move on rather than simply re-establish them in harm’s way” by buying these homes with federal funds, he said, and is looking at ways to expedite the buyout process.

    Some flood experts say the government needs to do more. “The number of repeatedly flooded properties is growing much faster than our efforts to mitigate those properties,” said Robert Moore, a senior policy analyst with the NRDC. He believes the flood program should pre-qualify homeowners with flood insurance for a voluntary buyout if their home is substantially damaged in a future disaster.

    Funding for buyouts is limited and the process can be cumbersome as it works it way between local requests, state reviews and federal approvals. “Unfortunately, the process takes two to 2 1/2 years,” long enough for many homeowners to make repairs and change their minds, said Larry Larson, senior policy adviser for the Association of State Floodplain Managers.

    Homeowners aren’t the only ones who can get cold feet. Some communities are reluctant to offer buyouts because funding is limited and the program removes properties from their tax base, said Delton Schwalls, an engineer in Orlando who works with Florida communities on flood mitigation.

    Some thoughts
    The government buying up and bulldozing these damaged houses would seem to make the problem worse rather than better by relieving homeowners of responsibility for their decisions, which is exactly the kind of moral hazard that has led to, for instance, the current half-trillion-dollar financial derivatives market.

    The libertarian (that is to say, rational) alternative would be to eliminate federal flood insurance and require homeowners to pay the full cost of the risks they take on. If an extra $10,000 a year is a deal breaker, then don’t move to a sea-level city in Hurricane Alley. Developers and local politicians would hate the resulting mass exodus but the local environment would appreciate it. Maybe the Everglades would survive in that scenario.

    If this sounds heartless, it’s because the other side of the ledger is less obvious. Someone has to cover these payments and as always it’s not the poor because they don’t have the money, and it’s not the rich because they can hire accountants to minimize their taxes. This leaves the middle class holding the bad policy bag. They pay taxes because they can’t avoid them. And their savings, being mostly in bank accounts and other financial assets, can be stolen by inflation’s stealth tax.

    Of the two groups – clueless homebuyers in floodplains and middle class people trying to save for retirement – the latter obviously deserves more protection. But beyond the obvious moral angle, a society with tens (maybe hundreds) of trillions of dollars of such hidden obligations is setting itself up for a complete loss of faith in its currency, making it impossible to help even those who actually deserve it.

    http://news.goldseek.com/DollarCollapse/1505851063.php
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Bump Higher in Late Trade
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold edged up to $1310.60 in midmorning New York trade before it fell back to $1305.40 in early afternoon action, but it then shot back higher into the close and ended near its late session high of $1311.70 with a gain of 0.21%. Silver rose to as high as $17.326 and ended with a gain of 0.52%.
     
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    TVR [#405] 09-19-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: MARKETS PAUSE AHEAD OF FOMC WEDNESDAY
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 19, 2017
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    PUTIN ORDERS TO END TRADE IN US DOLLARS
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 19, 2017
    Breaking news today as Putin orders to end trade in US Dollars at Russian Seaports. This is a continuation of a theme as we saw last month Russia make moves to reduce reliance on US dollar and payment systems in response to sanctions. Russia is cutting dependence on the US dollar and holding less and less US debt. Welcome to the JUNIUS MALTBY CHANNEL.
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    Blockchain to Merge with Physical Precious Metals | Rob Kirby
    Reluctant Preppers



    Published on Sep 19, 2017
    Rob Kirby answers YOUR viewer questions in this rapid-fire interview, spanning: politics, the Chinese & global pivot away from the US Petrodollar, whether US Treasuries’ days are numbered, whether Gold & Silver price suppression is just a conspiracy theory or a proven fact, and whether Blockchain and crypto-currencies contain fatal flaws, or are ushering in a revolution of integrity for money in the world ahead!

    ==================================
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    ==== IN THIS INTERVIEW =====

    Racial and political unrest being fomented and sponsored by elites - including previous president and Hollywood.

    Chinese gold-backed oil futures contracts denominated in Yuan, Venezuela pricing oil in Yuan, Russia and China in Ruble/Yuan, Russia/Iran trading oil without US Dollars: Does these spell the timing point abandonment of the US Dollar?

    Saudis’ $750B US Treasury bonds frozen pending 9/11 class-action lawsuits form US citizens.

    US Treasury liquidity a unique property that will keep the USD the world reserve currency?

    Are natural resource grabs the real reason for assassinations around the world (Gadaffi, Saddam Hussein, etc,) rather than countries breaking ranks from the petrodollar?

    Gold & Silver price suppression by a cartel/cabal of bankers, or just hedge funds and commercial banks doing normal shorting/hedging as usual with willing buyers/sellers on the other side of every trade?

    Gold prices retail vs. wholesale? Gold market is bifurcated: wholesale quantities of high grade bullion is much higher than spot. Can buy raw unrefined gold materials in Africa at great risk, but refined to .995 in Dubai, then shipped to far East to .999 fine or better, stamped with hallmark of a good delivery refiner (LBMA “Good Delivery Standard”). Gold market much tighter in

    Blockchain & Crypto-currencies: With nothing behind them, why are cryptos any better than fiat?

    Crypto-currencies: Are Cryptos unable to allow elastic money supply to enable borrowing / charging & paying off of interest, growth of an economy (consumer, commercial & sovereign borrowing,) or sovereign governments able to manage their currency strength/weakness for international trade?



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    Equifax sent customers to a fake phishing site for weeks to check if their data was compromised in historic breach
    • Equifax created a website, equifaxsecurity2017.com, for people to check if their information had been compromised in data breach
    • But the company's customer service team mistakenly tweeted wrong link out
    • Incorrect domain was not a nefarious phishing site, but was created by Nick Sweeting to point out the vulnerability of the actual credit bureau website
    • Since the data breach, Equifax has been criticized for their response to it
    • The Federal Trade Commission said it was launching a probe into the breach


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4904842/Equifax-sent-people-wrong-site-check-data-breach.html#ixzz4tIqDNOlO
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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    TVR [#406] 09-20-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: FOMC CENTRAL BANKS SMASH METALS
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 20, 2017
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    Putin's End Of Dollar Trading At Ports MAY Not Be A Big Deal
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Sep 20, 2017
     
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    Gold & Silver Slide On Federal Reserve Statement/Inaction
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Sep 20, 2017
     
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    Wealth In Gold Motivation
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Sep 20, 2017
    Junius Maltby channel motivational examination and dialogue on a historical and stable wealth preservation vehicle. Welcome to the conversation.
    SUPPORT: https://www.patreon.com/JuniusMaltby
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    **FAIR USE STATEMENT**
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    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-21-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    A December interest rate hike and more hikes next year is more or less a certainty. This is the first time this year that the Federal Reserve has been very clear on the US economy and the US interest rate cycle. Any reduction on North Korean risk can result in another wave of sell off for gold and silver. The fall is good for a sustained medium term rise in gold and silver.
     
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    Traders Yawn After Fed's "Great Unwind"

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 21, 2017 6:57 AM


    One day after the much anticipated Fed announcement in which Yellen unveiled the "Great Unwinding" of a decade of aggressive stimulus, it has been a mostly quiet session as the Fed's intentions had been widely telegraphed (besides the December rate hike which now appears assured), despite a spate of other central bank announcements, most notably out of Japan and Norway, both of which kept policy unchanged as expected.

    “Yesterday was a momentous day - the beginning of the end of QE,” Bhanu Baweja a cross-asset strategist at UBS, told Bloomberg TV. “The market for the first time is now moving closer to the dots as opposed to the dots moving towards the market. There’s more to come on that front. ”

    Despite the excitement, S&P futures are unchanged, holding near all-time high as European and Asian shares rise in volumeless, rangebound trade, and oil retreated while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s Fed-inspired rally which sent the the dollar to a two-month high versus the yen on Thursday and sent bonds and commodities lower. Along with dollar bulls, European bank stocks cheered the coming higher interest rates which should help their profits, rising over 1.5% as a weaker euro helped the STOXX 600. Shorter-term, 2-year U.S. government bond yields steadied after hitting their highest in nine years.

    “Initial reaction is fairly straightforward,” said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. “They (the Fed) still kept the December hike (signal) in there and the market is being reluctantly tugged in the direction of having to price that in.”

    The key central bank event overnight was the BoJ, which kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at around 0%. The BoJ stated that the decision on yield curve control was made by 8-1 decision in which known reflationist Kataoka dissented as he viewed that it was insufficient to meeting inflation goal by around fiscal 2019, although surprisingly he did not propose a preferred regime. BOJ head Kuroda spoke after the BoJ announcement, sticking to his usual rhetoric: he stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target although the BOJ "still have a distance to 2% price targe" and aded that buying equity ETFs was key to hitting the bank's inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70, the highest in two months, although it has since pared some losses.

    Japanese shares extended this week’s rally as the yen fell on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, even as the benchmark Topix index came off earlier highs after the BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged. “It’s been reaffirmed that BOJ will stand by its super easy monetary policy, making the yield gap between the U.S. and Japan widen further,” said Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities Co. in Tokyo. But “given the recent sharp gains in Japanese equities, investors may opt to stay on the sidelines to see how U.S. long-term yields and the foreign-exchange rate moves from here overnight.” The benchmark Topix index is heading for its best monthly performance since December, with automakers and banks contributing most to the gauge’s gains Thursday.

    The dollar pared an earlier advance and West Texas crude fell. The Bloomberg dollar index extended gains overnight, rising a second day in the aftermath of the Fed meeting while gold dropped below $1,300 per ounce. EURUSD traded in a tight 1.1866-1.1919 range while the ten fell to a 2-month low of 112.72 versus USD as BOJ kept policy unchanged. Australian dollar extends overnight weakness amid declines in base metals, coupled with S&P downgrade of China’s sovereign rating.

    Asia’s emerging-market currencies fell, led by South Korea’s won, after the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for another interest-rate increase this year and indicated three more hikes were likely in 2018. The MSCI EM Asia Index of stocks and most sovereign bonds declined.

    “The dollar could see a further technical rally and we should see weaker Asian currencies,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. “The message is that the Fed would like to get on with the job in terms of tightening. The market was only pricing one rate hike by the end of next year.”

    The Norwegian krone spiked higher after the central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, but adjusted the rate-path forecast higher. The new rate path now begins rising in Q2 18, more hawkish than expected, but still first full hike not before Q3 19.

    [​IMG]

    The hawkish Fed, weakened Asutralia's ASX 200 (-0.9%) with gold miners weighed after the precious metal felt the brunt of a firmer USD in the aftermath of the Fed, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) outperformed on a weaker currency. Chinese markets were indecisive with Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) choppy after a reserved PBoC operation and an increase in Hong Kong money market rates, although Macau gambling names were higher on optimism ahead of National Day holidays. Following a tumble in the Yuan after the Fed announcement driven by a jump in the US Dollar, the Chinese currency was largely unchanged despite a downgrade by S&P, which cut China's sovereign rating to A+, it first since 1999. While Chinese stocks were little changed, it was the latest move lower in Chinese commodities that has attracted attention, and overnight Iron Ore traded in Dalian slid by 4.7%, entering a bear market, down 22% from recent highs on declining demand, tougher seasonal pollution controls to come and less WMP "shadow capital" allocated to the commodity sector.

    [​IMG]

    European equities advanced, led by banks on the back of the plunge in the Euro after yesterday's USD surge, while bonds followed Treasuries lower as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s plans to pursue both higher interest rates and balance-sheet reduction in the coming months. The Stoxx 600 Index, up 0.2% at publication, was also boosted by the previous session’s drop in the euro, while lenders including Intesa Sanpaolo SpA benefited from the prospect of higher yields.

    In rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield edged further toward 2.30% almost all government bond yields in Europe followed it higher: Germany’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to 0.47 percent, the highest in five weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 1.37 percent, the highest in seven months.

    The higher dollar strained commodity markets, where the underlying raw materials are priced in the U.S. currency. Gold hit a three-week low of $1,296 per ounce, Brent and WTI oil eased away from multi-month highs, while industrial metals copper and nickel tumbled 1 and 3 percent to more than one-month lows. Brent crude futures LCOc1 last stood at $56.17, down slightly from late U.S. levels as U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate drifted down to $50.64.

    Data include jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Scholastic and Presidio are reporting earnings.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • The Greenback remains stronger against its pairs following the FOMC
    • BoJ, Riksbank and Norges Banks all in Focus
    • Looking ahead, highlights include: weekly jobs data, Philly Fed and ECB’s Dragh
    Market snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,503.70
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 382.85
    • MSCI Asia down 0.7% to 163.36
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.6% to 541.44
    • Nikkei up 0.2% to 20,347.48
    • Topix up 0.05% to 1,668.74
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.06% to 28,110.33
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,357.81
    • Sensex down 0.2% to 32,332.15
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,655.42
    • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,406.50
    • German 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 0.473%
    • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1909
    • US 10Y yield rose 1 bps to 2.27%
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.778%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 1.613%
    • Brent futures down 0.4% to $56.04/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,295.58
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.41
    Top Overnight News
    • S&P Global Ratings cut China’s sovereign credit rating for first time since 1999, citing the risks from soaring debt, and revised its outlook to stable from negative. Rating was cut by one step, to A+ from AA-, the agency said in statement
    • Yellen Brushes Aside Inflation ‘Mystery’ as Fed Eyes Rate Hike
    • Google Buys HTC Talent for $1.1 Billion to Spur Devices Push
    • BOJ left its target interest rates and asset-purchase program unchanged in an 8-1 vote, with new member Goushi Kataoka objecting; Kataoka argued there was little chance of reaching the BOJ’s inflation target by the projected time frame of around fiscal 2019
    • U.K. PM May is said to be weighing whether to accept for the first time the need to discuss the EU’s demand for a “Brexit bill” of tens of billions of pounds, in a move designed to kick-start stalled negotiations
    • Swiss inflation still is low, production capacity still not fully utilized despite a moderate recovery, the franc is still highly valued, and finally the interest-rate differential with foreign assets is small, SNB President Thomas Jordan said, according to Luzerner Zeitung
    • New Zealand’s economy grew at 0.8% q/q in 2Q, matching estimates; the economy expanded 2.5% from a year earlier
    • Anadarko Will Buy Back 10 Percent of Shares as Investors Agitate
    • Beat or Miss? MiFID Will Make It Harder to Tell on Earnings Day
    • Trump Has Allies Guessing on Iran Deal as U.S. Highlights Flaws
    Asia equity markets were mixed as the region digested events from US, where the FOMC announced plan to begin balance sheet normalization as anticipated, and suggested increased prospects of a 3rd rate hike for 2017 as dot plot projections showed more committee members expect another hike by year-end. This weakened ASX 200 (-0.9%) with gold miners weighed after the precious metal felt the brunt of a firmer USD in the aftermath of the Fed, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) outperformed on a weaker currency. Chinese markets were indecisive with Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) choppy after a reserved PBoC operation and an increase in Hong Kong money market rates, although Macau gambling names were higher on optimism ahead of National Day holidays. 10yr JGBs opened lower to track the declines in USTs and amid the heightened risk tone in Japan, although mild support was seen on return from the break after a somewhat dovish dissent at the BoJ. PBOC injected CNY 40bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos.PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5867 (Prev. 6.5670)

    Top Asian News
    • BlackRock Sells Singapore Office Tower for $1.5 Billion to CCT
    • AIA Buys Commonwealth Bank’s Life Unit for A$3.8 Billion
    • Tencent Enters Old-School Finance With Stake in China’s CICC
    • Yen Bears Awaken as Fed Tips Hawkish While the BOJ Digs in
    • Rupee Slides With Indian Bonds on Bets Fiscal Deficit Will Widen
    European equities are marginally higher across the board, aided by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric which led to a weaker EUR. The banking sector noticeably out-performers amid the increased likelihood of a FOMC December hike, with Commerzbank extending on gains after UniCredit showed interest in a deal with the German Bank. Further reports circulated that the German Government favours a merger between the Commerzbank and France’s BNP Paribas, seeing an evident bid in the French giants. Global bonds trade around lows, following the previously stated Fed rhetoric. The UK 5-year yields have touched their highest levels since the Brexit vote. The weakness in Europe this morning has led to dealers liquidating longs, further adding to the selling pressure.

    Top European News
    • EU Unyielding on Brexit Leaves May With One Choice: Pay the Bill
    • May to Test Limits of Money Pledges to Unlock Brexit Talks
    • U.K. Budget Deficit Unexpectedly Narrows in Boost for Hammond
    • The Russian Banking Analyst Who Predicted Deluge of Bailouts
    • Norway Signals Tighter Monetary Policy Amid Economic Recovery
    • Ryanair Downgraded at Kepler on Risks to Airline’s Cost Base
    In currencies, the Central Bank theme continued today, noticeably from Scandinavia, as participants saw Minutes from Riksbank and an Interest Rate decision from Norway. The former noted that several board members highlighted the issue of an overheating economy, yet did note that there are no current signs of this. The SEK still saw a bid on these comments, as there is evident chatter of an overheating economy. The move was quickly retraced, as EUR bulls do remain in the market and the concerns of a heating economy were seemingly not an immediate concern. EUR/NOK saw a much firmer move following Norway’s interest rate decision, keeping their rate unchanged at 0.50%, however with increases to the medium term key policy rate resulted in EUR/NOK falling around 60pips. Kuroda spoke post BoJ, sticking to his usual rhetoric, where the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected. The decision on the yield curve control did see a lone dissenter, with new member Kataoka viewing it as insufficient to meeting the inflation goal by around 2019. The Governor stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70.

    Commodities were mostly weaker with gold prices back below USD 1300/oz after the USD strengthened in the wake of the FOMC. Elsewhere, copper was also pressured alongside broad pressure in the complex and with selling exacerbated at the open of Chinese metals trade, while WTI took a breather from yesterday’s gains and was unchanged throughout the session.

    Looking at the day ahead, the data due out includes initial jobless claims (which are expected to spike to 300k reflecting the recent storm and hurricane impacts), Philly Fed business outlook, FHFA house price index and conference board’s leading index. Away from the data, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to make the keynote address at the second European Systemic Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt at 2.30pm BST. Shortly after this hits your email the ECB’s Smets will speak in Frankfurt at an ‘Understanding Inflation’ conference which could be worth a watch.

    US Event calendar
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 301,500, prior 284,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.98m, prior 1.94m
    • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 17.1, prior 18.9
    • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.9; Economic Expectations, prior 54
    • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • 10:15am: Fed’s Fisher Speaks at BOE Independence Conference, London
    • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.35t
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    So what did we learn from the Fed and Yellen last night? Firstly we learnt that stopping reinvestment is a sideshow for now and that the market still cares more about the probability of a December hike and where the Fed thinks inflation is heading. Just briefly on the balance sheet run-off, they have committed to the plan from the June meeting of $10bn per month ($6bn USTs and $4bn Mortgages) with an incremental increase every 3 months until we get to $50bn. However on the rates and inflation outlook the committee and Yellen were on the hawkish side. As DB's Peter Hooper discusses in his note, barring negative surprises in the months just ahead, the Fed is on track to raise rates once more this year and three times in 2018. Yellen recognised that inflation has been running low recently but put a higher blame on one-off factors than was perhaps anticipated. At the same time she noted that monetary policy operates with a lag and that labour market tightness will eventually push inflation up.

    The complication for markets though is that beyond 2017, the FOMC will see a huge upheaval in its membership which could easily mean current member's thoughts are meaningless in a few months time and also that Mr Trump's fiscal plans (or lack of them) have the ability to completely change the debate. So its difficult to read too much into the current FOMC's forecasts. However for now December is very much live with the probability of a December rate hike moving from a shade under 50% to 64% by the US close (using Bloomberg's calculator). After trading with no great conviction in the lead up, 10y Treasury yields spiked around 6ps higher immediately after the announcement but have retraced around 2bps of the move. The Dollar rallied with the Euro hitting $1.2033 just before the announcement but falling after to range trade between $1.1850-1.1900 into the close and where it remains in the Asian session.

    Meanwhile the S&P 500 finally snapped its run of 6 consecutive sessions of moving in an intraday range of less than 0.35% to close +0.06%% (with a range of around 0.5%). However the VIX closed below 10 (9.78) for the first time since the day before Mr Trump's "Fire and Fury" speech on August 9th. These moves came after equity and bond markets in Europe closed little changed (Stoxx 600 -0.04%, Bunds -0.9bps) although it’s worth noting the underperformance of Spanish assets (IBEX -0.83% and Spanish Bonds +2.3bps) following police raids of Catalan government offices ahead of the proposed independence referendum. Staying with central banks, overnight we’ve had the BoJ meeting with policy left unchanged as expected. However there was surprisingly one dissenter with new board member Kataoko voting for more stimulus. The vote was still 8-1 so it doesn't really impact the likelihood of a change in policy soon. The Yen has been a touch weaker (now at 2-month lows) but thats as much due to Dollar strength after the Fed. Kuroda's press conference starts at 7.30am BST. Ahead of this the Nikkei is +0.44%, with the Hang Seng +0.1% and the Shanghai Comp +0.2%.

    So with the big policy meetings now out of the way, it feels like the next significant hurdle for markets in the remaining two days this week is UK PM Theresa May’s speech in Florence tomorrow. The latest twist in the Brexit saga leading into this yesterday were the various reports suggesting that PM Theresa May was preparing to offer €20bn in budget contributions to the Europeans, and also that May had supposedly made peace with Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson following his resignation speculation on Tuesday. The EU have previously said that the UK has net liabilities of about €60bn so it remains to be seen how May’s offer will be taken, assuming it’s true.

    While we’re with the UK, the BoE hawks got a boost yesterday following the August retail sales data. Excluding fuel, sales jumped up a much better than expected +1.0% mom last month (vs. +0.1% expected) which in turn helped to push the annual rate up to +2.8% yoy from +1.7%. Including fuel, sales were also significantly better than expected (+1.0% mom vs. +0.2% expected). Separately, a BoE agents survey released yesterday reported a modest rise in labour costs in August. Sterling at one stage touched $1.3657 yesterday and a new post-Brexit high, before falling sharply after the Fed to close just below $1.35.

    Over at the ECB, it is worth noting the somewhat hawkish comments from governing council member Klaas Knot yesterday. He said that “against the backdrop of an increasingly reflationary environment, the tail risk of a deflationary spiral is no longer imminent. Consequently, the main rationale for central bank asset purchases has disappeared”. Knot was also upbeat about inflation trending back to target and also downplayed concern about the recent euro appreciation. If anything the comments seemed to be somewhat on-side with the Reuters article from earlier this week which suggested that policy makers were debating the possibility of a close-ended tapering commitment, which we’d imagine is a more hawkish outcome compared to what the market is expecting.

    Jumping back to politics and specifically Trump, it was interesting to note the Politico article yesterday suggesting that the ‘Big Six’ tax reform negotiators are due to release an update at some stage next week. The article suggests that the blueprint will include a corporate tax rate target of “lower than 20%” which would suggest a backing away of sorts from the 15% rate previously touted. The article also suggests that the announcement will include a move away from full and immediate expensing. The suggestion is that we should hear some of the new details in a scheduled address by President Trump on September 29th. However it’s possible that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and NEC Director Cohn unveil details before that earlier in the week. So one to keep in mind. Also watch for a possible return of the heath care bill soon as various news outlets are suggesting that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell plans a vote next week.

    Before we look at today’s calendar, in terms of the other economic data released yesterday, in Germany PPI for August was reported as nudging up a little more than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.1% expected) while in the US existing home sales for August were soft (-1.7% mom vs. +0.2% expected).

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’re kicking off with more data out of the UK with the August public sector net borrowing figures, while later this afternoon we’ll get the September consumer confidence reading for the Euro area. Over in the US the data due out includes initial jobless claims (which are expected to spike to 300k reflecting the recent storm and hurricane impacts), Philly Fed business outlook, FHFA house price index and conference board’s leading index. Away from the data, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to make the keynote address at the second European Systemic Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt at 2.30pm BST. Shortly after this hits your email the ECB’s Smets will speak in Frankfurt at an ‘Understanding Inflation’ conference which could be worth a watch. Fellow board member Peter Praet then speaks at the same conference at 10.30pm BST.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/traders-yawn-after-feds-great-unwind
     

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