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Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Aug 25, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: September 21

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 21, 2017 7:57 AM

    • Mark Zuckerberg’s Political Awakening (BBG)
    • Bank of Japan Sticks With Easy-Money Settings (WSJ)
    • Bank of Japan board member demands more stimulus (FT)
    • S&P downgrades China, says rising debt is stoking economic, financial risks (Reuters)
    • Boston’s Fate Lies With a Zombie Hurricane as Maria Moves North (BBG)
    • SEC says hackers may have traded using stolen insider information (Reuters)
    • Equifax Hackers Roamed Its System Undetected for Months (WSJ)
    • Spanish crackdown has undermined Catalan independence bid, regional leader says (Reuters)
    • Nestlé Makes Billions Bottling Water It Pays Nearly Nothing For (BBG)
    • Home Prices Soar in Disaster-Prone Areas (BBG)
    • Mexican Schoolchildren Trapped After Quake (WSJ)
    • Distrustful U.S. allies force spy agency to back down in encryption fight (Reuters)
    • Energy Alliance Propels Russia-Saudi Cooperation (WSJ)
    • Russia set to pipe more oil to China, stepping up race with Saudis (Reuters)
    • Kimmel Spat Shows Confusion Over Rushed Health Bill’s Effects (BBG)
    • Beat or Miss? MiFID Will Make It Harder to Tell on Earnings Day (BBG)
    • Amazon Puts Whole Foods on Fast Track to Conventional Supermarket (WSJ)
    • U.S. Airports Are More Popular Than Ever, Except in New York (BBG)
    • Secret of Merkel’s Longevity: Strategic Flip-Flops (WSJ)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ
    - Alphabet Inc's Google said it would buy part of Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC Corp, including its team that helped develop Google's flagship Pixel smartphone, for $1.1 billion in cash. on.wsj.com/2xxyzG7

    - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosed Wednesday that hackers penetrated its electronic system for storing public-company filings last year and may have traded on the information. on.wsj.com/2xwEdID

    Toshiba Corp's board on Wednesday voted to sell its memory-chip business to a group led by U.S. private-equity firm Bain Capital and includes Apple Inc and Dell Technologies Inc for 2 trillion yen ($17.79 billion). on.wsj.com/2xwv5DW

    - Pfizer Inc filed suit against Johnson & Johnson , alleging J&J's "exclusionary contracts" for Remicade with health insurers, hospitals and clinics effectively prevented them from offering Pfizer's lower-priced copy. on.wsj.com/2xxeOyt

    - Facebook Inc is adding more human reviewers to oversee its advertising system after a report showed that people could target ads at users interested in anti-Semitic and other hateful topics. on.wsj.com/2xx8eIb

    - Albertsons Cos is buying the Plated meal-kit service, the first acquisition of a prepared-meals company by a national grocery chain. on.wsj.com/2xwELhF

    - Hurricane Maria slammed into Puerto Rico, pounding the U.S. territory with huge waves, massive rain and fierce winds and shutting down the power grid across the entire island of 3.4 million people. on.wsj.com/2xxxIFk

    - Soldiers, rescue workers and volunteers worked Wednesday to find the living and the dead beneath rubble left by a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that destroyed scores of buildings in Mexico's capital and surrounding states, and killed at least 230 people. on.wsj.com/2xxrrtm


    FT

    Ryanair Holdings Plc pilots have dismissed an offer of a 12,000-pound ($16,184) payment to waive days off and stay for a year with the business, a move that could compound serious rota problems at the airline.

    The UK is to invest 65 million pounds in a U.S. mega-physics project designed to investigate neutrinos, mysterious subatomic particles that pervade the universe.

    Former CBI head Digby Jones is facing questions over his value to the House of Lords after claiming 15,000 pounds of expenses and allowances in a period when he did not speak in any debates or ask any questions.

    Antony Jenkins, the former Barclays Plc chief executive, is planning to expand his bank technology service into Asia after gaining backing from Chinese insurer Ping An Insurance Co Ltd and consultancy firm Oliver Wyman.


    NYT

    - Special Counsel Robert Mueller has asked the White House for documents about some of U.S. President Donald Trump's most scrutinized actions since taking office, including the firing of his national security adviser and F.B.I. director, according to White House officials. nyti.ms/2fBnzOq

    - Less than two weeks after Hurricane Irma, a new storm, Hurricane Maria, made a direct hit on Puerto Rico, knocking out its power grid. nyti.ms/2xooPh9

    - Alphabet Inc's Google said late Wednesday it is spending $1.1 billion to hire a team of engineers from the smartphone business of struggling Taiwanese manufacturer HTC Corp in a bid to bring more hardware expertise to its own mobile technology operations. nyti.ms/2xgPHjD

    - The Securities and Exchange Commission said it was a victim of a computer hack last year in which attackers could have exploited private information for trading purposes. nyti.ms/2wBfh3G

    - The board of Japanese conglomerate Toshiba Corp has approved a plan to sell its microchip business to a group of American and Japanese buyers. nyti.ms/2wzr2aC

    - Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook's chief operating officer, promised to add more oversight to the company's automated systems to make sure offensive terms are not used to target ads. nyti.ms/2xhhHUy


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** The winds are blowing against Bombardier Inc in its trade war with Boeing Co as some analysts expect a preliminary ruling from the U.S. Department of Commerce early next week to go against the Canadian planemaker. tgam.ca/2hkRjip

    ** A Canadian Federation of Independent Business survey of small-business owners shows strong opposition to the federal government's proposed tax rules. tgam.ca/2hl06B2

    ** Opposition Members of Parliament are accusing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau of shielding their family assets from the tax hikes they want to impose on small businesses. tgam.ca/2hlk1zZ

    NATIONAL POST

    ** The stain of bankruptcy protection filings on both sides of the border could confuse Toys R Us (IPO-TOYS.N) Canada customers and spook toy suppliers already worried about the debt-plagued U.S. division, industry analysts say. bit.ly/2hkJo4I

    ** Canadian retail landlord First Capital Realty Inc and its partners have hired real estate firm CBRE Group Inc to sell a collection of 19 key urban assets. bit.ly/2hlbkW6


    Britain

    The Times

    Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal is raising his stake in Anglo American Plc after announcing plans to buy up to 1.5 billion pounds-worth of new shares in the company. (bit.ly/2fC7V5m)

    About 480 jobs will be cut at Mitie Group Plc as the struggling outsourcer responds to a series of setbacks including profit warnings, restated accounts, the overhaul of its board and regulatory inquiries. (bit.ly/2fBRNkp)

    The Guardian

    India's Tata Steel Ltd has paved the way for a merger of its European operations with the German steel manufacturer ThyssenKrupp AG, creating Europe's second largest steel group after ArcelorMittal. (bit.ly/2fBS4Ut)

    Bidders for UK stock market listed companies must lay out more detailed plans for their target, including location of its head office and research and development investment, under proposed rules put forward by the takeover watchdog and backed by the government. (bit.ly/2fCabcN)

    The Telegraph

    The City's top lobby group has urged Theresa May to get a move on with a Brexit transition deal as she prepares for a landmark speech in Italy on Friday. TheCityUK has slammed the lack of progress made on agreeing a transitional arrangement since the EU referendum and called for urgent action to limit damage to the City. (bit.ly/2fALmh9)

    German energy giant Eon is in talks to sell its stake in the fossil fuel and trading company Uniper to Finnish utility Fortum for 3.8 billion euros ($4.51 billion). (bit.ly/2fBUu5v)

    Sky News

    Dominic Chappell, the businessman at the helm of BHS when it collapsed last year, has denied charges linked to an investigation by The Pensions Regulator. (bit.ly/2fBVeHP)

    The finance director of the Co-operative Bank, John Worth, is to step down weeks after the lender concluded a 700 million pound ($944.58 million) rescue deal designed to secure its long-term future. (bit.ly/2fzUeDN)

    The Independent

    A London and San Francisco-based cyber security firm, Digital Shadows, has raised $26 million in a funding round led by Octopus Ventures, an early backer of Zoopla and LOVEFilm, to support its expansion into markets such as Asia. (ind.pn/2fBIJfm)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/frontrunning-september-21
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.21.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-21-17/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/21
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-092117.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/21
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    CWS - Morning News: September 21, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-21-2017.html

    RR - Sabotage, Endowments and Gene Hackers 09/21
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-21/sabotage-endowments-and-gene-hackers

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Fed Sets Stage For Next Rate Hike 09/21
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108481-wall-street-breakfast-fed-sets-stage-next-rate-hike

    MtM - Market Digests Fed, Greenback Consolidates, Antipodeans Tumble 09/21
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/market-digests-fed-greenback.html
     
  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  4. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  5. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    TVR [#407] 09-21-2017 END OF THE DAY REPORT: SHUT UP SHUTTIN UP
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 21, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
  6. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Global Markets Spooked By North Korea H-Bomb Threat; Focus Turns To Brexit Speech

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 22, 2017 7:01 AM


    S&P futures retreated along with European and Asian shares with tech, and Apple supplier shares leading the drop while safe havens such as gold and the yen rose, as the war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. Trade focus now turns to a planned speech by Theresa May on Brexit (full preview here).

    As reported last night, the key overnight event was the latest threat by North Korea that its counter-measure may mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific, according to reports in Yonhap citing North Korea's Foreign Minister. North Korea's leader Kim said North Korea will consider "corresponding, highest level of hard-line measure in history" against US, while he also stated that President Trump's UN speech was rude nonsense and demonstrated insanity and inhumanity which confirmed North Korea's nuclear and missile advances are on right path and will continue to the end. There was more on the geopolitical front with the Iranian President informing armed forces that the nation will bolster its missile capabilities, according to local TV.

    As a result, treasury yields pulled back and the dollar slid the most in two weeks following North Korea's threat it could test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index edged lower as a rout in base metals deepened, weighing on mining shares. WTI crude halted its rally above $50 a barrel as OPEC members gathered in Vienna.

    US stock futures pulled back 0.1% though markets were showing growing signs of fatigue over the belligerent U.S.-North Korea rhetoric. “North Korea poses such a binary risk that it’s very hard to price, and at the moment investors just have to look through it,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Despite the latest jitters, MSCI’s world equity index remained on track for another weekly gain, holding near its latest record high hit on Wednesday as investors’ enthusiasm for stocks showed few signs of waning.

    The dollar weakened versus the yen and the euro as escalating tensions between North Korea and the U.S. spurred demand for haven assets. The U.S. currency paring its gains made versus the euro since the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rhetoric on Sept. 20. The euro approached $1.20, boosted by data which showed Europe’s economy was on track for the best quarterly growth since 2015, while a gauge of private-sector output in Germany hit the highest level in more than six years. Three-month implied volatility in euro- dollar reached its highest since April. Comments by policy makers and politicians may be the main drivers for currency markets on Friday.

    Germany’s benchmark index advanced and the euro headed back toward $1.20 after manufacturing and services surveys data indicated the Eurozone is on track for its best quarterly growth since 2015, buoying sentiment ahead of German elections on Sunday. Manufacturing PMIs from Germany and France and a composite euro-zone private-sector activity index provided support for European policy makers as they consider scaling back stimulus. Both France and Germany reported stronger Flash PMIs, leading to a better than expected composite Eurozone PMI print of 56.7, vs Exp. 55.5 and 55.7 last (Mfg 58.2 vs exp. 57.1, Services 55.6, vs exp. 54.7).

    [​IMG]

    The PMI summary showed continuing strong growth on virtually all components:
    [​IMG]

    “This encouraging economic backdrop is strengthening the EU governments’ optimism about the future, helping to reinforce their firm stance vis a vis the UK in the Brexit negotiations,” said Societe Generale cross-asset strategists.

    European equity markets pushed higher after the stronger PMIs, while L’Oreal rose 4.0% after the death of the founding family’s matriarch leads to M&A speculation, CAC 40 outperforms. Mining sector lags for a second day after base metals sell off in Asian trade again. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 0.1 percent as of publication. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined less than 0.05 percent. Germany’s DAX Index increased 0.1 percent, hitting the highest in 10 weeks with its fifth consecutive advance. The UST/bund spread widens 3bps as bunds react to positive data.

    Brexit bellwether sterling hovered at a two-month high against the euro having firmed against both euro and dollar this week as traders anticipated May would strike a softer tone on negotiations for Britain’s exit from the EU. Options markets were pricing a large GBP/USD reaction to the speech, as investors bought protection against sharp fluctuations.

    “Sterling’s rally in the past couple of weeks is partly in reaction to the Bank of England but also reflects an assumption that it’s more likely we do get a transitional deal,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. “If that’s what May is laying out today that would be supportive, but I think you have seen a lot of that move priced in already,” he added.

    Asia equity markets traded mostly negative following US losses where the DJIA snapped a 9-day win streak, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 0.2%, with sentiment dampened after North Korean verbal provocation in which its Foreign Minister suggested its counter-measures could mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific. This followed defiant comments from North Korean leader Kim who labelled Trump a dotard and pressured Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) as well as most indices in the region, although ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by strength in its largest weighted financials sector. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) conformed to the subdued tone in the region with sentiment reeling from a downgrade to China and Hong Kong’s sovereign ratings by S&P. Taiwan’s Taiex index fell 1.2 percent, the biggest slide in Asia. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. is heading for its biggest weekly loss since October 2014, with some analysts saying early sales of Apple’s new iPhone 8 are slower than for previous models. Finally, 10yr JGBs and T-notes gained on the safe-haven flows, although upside was capped following an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated Japanese bonds which showed a weaker b/c than prior.

    "Although we continue to believe that global stocks can grind higher, underpinned by robust economic growth and increasing earnings, rising valuations are reducing the possibility of significant further upside," UBS global chief investment officer Mark Hafele says in note. UBS reduced overweight to global equities, maintaining a moderate risk-on stance.

    In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest dip in more than two weeks. The euro increased 0.4 percent to $1.1994, the strongest in two weeks. The British pound declined 0.2 percent to $1.3557. The Japanese yen increased 0.5 percent to 111.93 per dollar, the first advance in more than a week.

    In rates, German bond yields hardly budged ahead of elections on Sunday which market participants said would yield no big surprises with Chancellor Merkel likely to win a fourth term. The 10-year Treasury yield declined about 2 basis points to 2.255 percent as risk aversion favored government bonds. It had risen for nine consecutive sessions prior, brushing a six-week high of 2.289 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield declined less than one basis point to 1.375 percent.

    Elsewhere, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is set to give a key speech on her Brexit strategy on Friday in Florence. And Germany goes to the polls on Sunday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel expected to secure a fourth term, although she may not win an outright majority leading to coalition talks to form a new government.

    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

    Asian equities faced selling pressure overnight amid threats of further hydrogen bomb tests from North Korea. Europe supported amid upbeat data
    • The risk-off sentiment spurred flows into JPY. Focus for GBP remains on today’s speech by UK PM May
    • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian retail sales & CPI, UK PM May and a slew of central bank speak
    Market Snapshot
    • Dow futures fall 0.1%
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
    • Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3%
    • S&P 500 down 0.3% to 2,500.60 on Thursday
    • VIX up 2.2% to 9.88%
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 382.20
    • MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 162.97
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.4% to 538.52
    • Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,296.45
    • Topix down 0.3% to 1,664.61
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 27,880.53
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,352.53
    • Sensex down 1.1% to 32,005.00
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,682.14
    • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,388.71
    • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.462%
    • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1994
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.816%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.619%
    • WTI Futures little-changed at $50.6/bbl;
    • Brent crude down 0.1% to $56.02
    • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,296.51
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 91.91
    Top Overnight News
    • Kim says he’ll tame ‘mentally deranged’ Trump ‘with fire’: KCNA
    • North Korea Says Actions May Include Pacific H-Bomb Test
    • CDU/CSU unchanged at 36%, SPD 21.5% in ZDF Politbarometer poll ahead of German election Sunday
    • New Zealand election still too close to call, Newshub poll shows
    • In the space of just seven weeks, Jacinda Ardern has led her opposition Labour Party out of the wilderness and given it the chance of a stunning upset in Saturday’s New Zealand election; what had looked like a cakewalk for the ruling National Party has become a riveting contest of ideas and left the ballot too close to call
    • Ministers from OPEC nations and its allies broadly signaled that their meeting on Friday wouldn’t take concrete steps to address concerns that their agreement may end too early
    • In her speech, U.K. PM May will seek a transition period of up to two years after Brexit, and will also pledge to strengthen legal protections for the 3 million EU citizens living in the U.K., according to media reports
    • ECB President Draghi doesn’t make any reference to euro in his speech earlier Friday; says strengthening recovery will reduce youth joblessness
    • China’s Credit Rating Cut as S&P Cites Risk From Debt Growth
    • Europe’s Economy on Track for Best Quarterly Growth Since 2015
    • L’Oreal Advances on Prospect of Sale of Nestle’s Holding
    • OPEC, Allies Wait and See If Oil Cuts Need to Be Extended
    • Trump’s Travel Ban Decision Could Set Off New Wave of Turmoil
    Asia equity markets traded mostly negative following US losses where the DJIA snapped a 9-day win streak, and with sentiment dampened after North Korean verbal provocation in which its Foreign Minister suggested its counter-measures could mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific. This followed defiant comments from North Korean leader Kim who labelled Trump a dotard and pressured Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) as well as most indices in the region, although ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by strength in its largest weighted financials sector. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) conformed to the subdued tone in the region with sentiment reeling from a downgrade to China and Hong Kong’s sovereign ratings by S&P. Finally, 10yr JGBs and T-notes gained on the safe-haven flows, although upside was capped following an enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated Japanese bonds which showed a weaker b/c than prior. S&P downgraded Hong Kong’s sovereign rating to AA+; outlook stable from AAA; outlook negative. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos, for a net weekly injection of CNY 450bln vs. last week's CNY 260bln net injection.

    Top Asian News
    • S&P Strips Hong Kong of AAA Rating After China Downgrade
    • S&P’s First China Downgrade Since ’99 Is Good News for Bulls
    • ZhongAn Is Said to Raise $1.5 Billion in IPO Priced at Top End
    • Day Traders Reap Profits in Japan When North Korea Tensions Jump
    • Iron Ore Routed in Woeful Week as Questions Stack Up on China
    European equities shrugged off some of the downbeat sentiment seen during Asia-Pac trade which stemmed from fresh North Korean provocations. More specifically, the NK Foreign Minister suggested its counter-measures could mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific. Nonetheless, European bourses have chosen to look through these threats and have taken a more in-looking view amid this morning’s slew of PMI readings which showed beats for Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole. In terms of sector specifics, material names underperform while consumer staples have lead markets higher, with the notable stock specific mover being L’Oreal (OR FP) amid speculation over Nestle’s stake in the Co. in the wake of heiress Battencourt’s death. Bund futures have seen a bit of a retracement towards 161.00 as risk-off sentiment eased and upbeat Eurozone PMI’s, with the region having already digested this week’s sovereign supply. Elsewhere, peripheral yields have seen some modest tightening with little activity seen in core paper.
    • Top European News
    • May to Reboot Brexit Plan by Requesting Transition Period
    • Steer Clear of Spanish Debt on Catalan Concern, Allianz GI Says
    • Russia Sees ‘Full-Scale Cyberwar’ as Bomb-Threat Wave Continues
    • French Economic Good News Continues as Macron Pushes Reforms
    • Vestas Shares Fall; HSBC Sees Pressure at Onshore Wind Auctions
    • Macron’s Man in Senate Warns French President Can’t Win This One
    In FX markets, in-fitting with the sentiment seen across the continent, the EUR has been given a helping hand with the EUR/USD pair eyeing 1.2000 to the upside once again which also comes amid a broader USD retracement. Elsewhere, GBP/USD has seen a pullback from yesterday’s gains as markets now await further clarity on the UK’s Brexit path from PM May today via her speech from Florence later today. NZD will most likely also be one to watch heading into the weekend ahead of the election on Saturday; albeit polls have recently suggested that the incumbent National Party should secure victory. North Korean rhetoric spurred some safe-haven flows, as USD/JPY took some extra impetus from some week end unwinds. The touted resistance around the 112.70 area has been evident of profit taking, as many investors seem concerned to hold weekend positions following further threats of hydrogen bomb tests from the rebel state.

    In commodities, Chinese metal prices were lower with Dalian Iron Ore prices slipping around 4%, plumbing multi week lows, given expectations of slower winter demand and steel output curbs, while S&P downgrading China’s credit rating also added to the recent headwinds. Elsewhere, gold prices rose over 0.5% on flight-to-quality flow after reports that North Korea is willing to conduct a H-Bomb test in the Pacific. Energy markets will be focusing on the fallout from today’s OPEC/non-OPEC meeting, with two delegates suggesting that today’s sit down will be “brief.” Furthermore, the Russian energy minister has briefed media saying that discussions will focus on export monitoring and US shale production. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are looking at all parameters for export monitoring, according to the Venezuelan oil minister. Libya's national oil production is at about 900,000 BPD, according to a Libyan oil source.

    Looking at the day ahead, the Markit PMIs on services, manufacturing and the Composite will be available for the US, Eurozone, Germany and France. Onto other events, there will be three Fed speakers today, including John Williams, Esther George and Robert Kaplan. Over in Europe, the ECB’s Vice President Constancio will also speak and the EU foreign ministers will also hold an informal meeting. In Italy, UK’s PM Theresa May will give her big speech updating her government’s position on Brexit.

    US Event Calendar:
    • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53, prior 52.8; Services PMI, est. 55.7, prior 56; Composite PMI, prior 55.3
    • 6am: Fed’s Williams Speaks to Media at Swiss National Bank Event
    • 9:30am: Fed’s George Speaks at Dallas/Kansas City Fed Oil Conference
    • 1:30pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks at Dallas/Kansas City Fed Oil Conference
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    It doesn’t feel like this week has reached its peak yet. This week has been, and still is, all about (arguably) the three most powerful women in the world. Yellen was certainly on the hawkish side on Wednesday and now we have a big Mrs May speech on Brexit today ahead of Mrs Merkel’s re-election vote on Sunday. Before we preview both these events we’ll first highlight that there has been further verbal escalations in the North Korean situation. Yesterday President Trump ordered new sanctions on individuals, companies and banks doing business with North Korea. He said ‘foreign banks will face a clear choice, do business with the US or facilitate trade with…NK”. He added that China has also asked its banks to stop dealing with the regime. In response, Kim Jong Un has threatened the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” with his foreign minister suggesting that this could include testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. Asian markets all trading lower on the back of these comments with the Nikkei (-0.35%), Kospi (-0.82%) and Hang Seng (-0.84%) down as we type. Note that we have the flash services PMIs today in Europe and the US which will give us the latest live barometer of economic activity.

    Back to Brexit. There has been lots of headlines in the UK speculating about Mrs May’s Florence speech today which starts at 2.15pm BST. However none of Thursday’s headlines told us much that hadn’t been speculated beforehand. Perhaps the speech is still being finalised although there was a 2 and a half hour cabinet meeting yesterday where she briefed her team about the contents. Hopes of Mrs May announcing a figure the UK would be prepared to pay as a divorce settlement or interim annual payment seems a bit optimistic to us as it would end up being the focal point of the speech and all that the press would care about. We’re not sure she’ll want it remembered for that. Having said that the BBC reported in the afternoon that Mrs May is willing to pay 20bn euros during a transition period of two years. However the headline is slightly misleading as the story says the package might be worth up to 20bn without necessarily having that figure explicitly mentioned in the speech. So lots to look forward to on this.

    Politics should remain the focus for markets heading into this weekend with Germany’s federal election due on Sunday. Our economists in Germany published a report earlier this week laying out their expectations. In summary they note that according to the ARD Deutschland-tre nd, only a renewed Grand Coalition or a coalition between Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the liberals (FDP) and the Greens (“Jamaica”) would be arithmetically possible. However they highlight that given the tight polls of late and accounting for the usual typical margins of error, other alternative coalitions for the CDU/CSU are still possible. In fact they note that in some polls up to half of the voters still remain undecided. For a CDU/ CSU and FDP/Greens coalition, they highlight that there are question marks about the Greens agreeing to join, as well as the FDP willing to give up its renewed “trade mark” for the sake of government jobs. A Grand Coalition on the other hand they highlight as being a “coalition of last resort” should all else fail. It might also require massive concessions to the SPD. There may be a lot of negotiations ahead.

    Before we move back to markets a word of note that the next couple of weeks are likely to see lots of noise on tax reform (and possibly on healthcare again). I listened to DB’s Frank Kelly speak yesterday on this topic and he thinks it’s going to be a very hard road ahead to get a workable agreement through. Next week, the so called “group of six” will come up with a tax plan but it’s likely to be vague and designed to whip Congress into action rather than put firm proposals through. This may initially disappoint markets although I’m not sure there is much reform priced into markets at the moment. The hope would be that something more substantial will be forthcoming the following week. So plenty of headlines likely.

    Back onto yesterday’s markets performance. US bourses all softened with the S&P (-0.30%) down for the first time in five days, while the Dow (-0.24%) and Nasdaq (-0.52%) also fell slightly. Within the S&P, most sectors were in the red, with only the Industrials and Financials sector (+0.20%) up slightly. Conversely, European markets were marginally higher, with the Stoxx 600 and DAX both up c0.2%, supported by banks on the prospect of higher yields, but the FTSE 100 dipped 0.11%. Notably, low volatility has returned with the VIX closing a bit lower at 9.67 while the VSTOXX touched the lowest level on record intraday, but ended the day at 11.19 (-0.60 from previous day).

    Over in government bonds, core yields were little changed while peripherals underperformed. For 10y yields, UST, Bunds and French OATs all rose c1bp while Gilts were 2.5bp higher. Elsewhere, peripherals underperformed, with Italy, Spain and Portugal 10y yields all c4bp higher. At the two year part of the curve, USTs was flat while Bunds and Gilts rose c0.8bp.

    Turning to currencies, the US dollar index weakened 0.27%, enabling the Euro and Sterling to gain 0.41% and 0.63% respectively. The AUD dropped 1.27%, partly as its central bank governor said “a rise in global rates has no automatic implications for Australia”. In commodities, WTI oil was little changed (-0.28%) but Iron Ore fell 5.11% on growing concerns that Chinese iron ore stockpiles are rising just as winter steel production cuts are about to reduce demand. Elsewhere, precious metals traded slightly lower (Gold -0.76%; Silver -1.28%) yesterday, while industrial metals are trending lower this morning, with Copper (-1.43%), Zinc (-2.42%) and Aluminium (-2.83%) all down modestly.

    Away from markets, S&P has downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1999, now one notch lower, from AA-/Negative to A+/Stable, citing that a prolonged period of strong credit growth has increased China’s economic and financial risks. The change should not be a big surprise as it follows that of Moody’s downgrade back in May and now both agencies effectively have the same rating on China. The markets’ reaction seemed somewhat muted with China’s sovereign 5y USD CDS widening by 0.5bp to 58.5bp.

    Turning to Europe, Draghi’s keynote address as Chair of the European Systemic Risk board contained little material developments, although he noted that “the use of monetary policy is not the right instrument to address financial imbalances” when financial and business cycles diverge. Over at Italy yesterday, the EU’s Chief negotiator Barnier seemed a bit more optimistic ahead of PM May’s big speech. He noted “I’m convinced a rapid agreement on the conditions of the UK’s orderly withdrawal and a transition period is possible…for that to happen, we would like the UK to put on the table, as soon as next week, proposals to overcome the barriers”. Finally, circling back to Spain, we watch and wait to see if Catalonia’s independence referendum vote scheduled for 1 October will go ahead or not, in part as BBC has reported Spain’s constitutional court has imposed daily fines of €12k on top Catalan officials with police raids on key Catalan government buildings with some officials arrested.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was solid and above market expectations. The Philly Fed manufacturing index rose 4.9pts to 23.8 in September (vs. 17.1 expected ). Within the details, the readings were also strong with the shipments index up 8.4pts to 37.8 and the new orders index up 9.1pts to 29.5. The Conference board leading index also slightly beat, up 0.4% mom (vs. 0.3% expected). Elsewhere, the initial jobless claims print was much stronger than expected at 259k (vs. 302k expected), suggesting limited impact from the storms for now, while continuing claims were broadly in line at 1,980k (vs. 1,975k expected). The slight disappointment was the FHFA house price index which rose 0.2% mom (vs. 0.4% expected).

    Moving along, the Eurozone’s confidence index edged up 0.3pts to -1.2 (vs. -1.5 expected) to a fresh 16-year high. Over in the UK, the August credit data for the private and public sector were both modestly lower than expected, with PSNB ex banking net borrowing at £5.7bln (vs. £7.1bln expected) and public sector net borrowing at £5.1bln (vs. £6.4bln expected).

    Looking at the day ahead, In France, the final reading of 2Q GDP (0.5% qoq, 1.7% yoy expected) and wages will be out. Over in Canada, there is August inflation and retail sales. Elsewhere, the Markit PMIs on services, manufacturing and the Composite will be available for the US, Eurozone, Germany and France. Onto other events, there will be three Fed speakers today, including John Williams, Esther George and Robert Kaplan. Over in Europe, the ECB’s Vice President Constancio will also speak and the EU foreign ministers will also hold an informal meeting. In Italy, UK’s PM Theresa May will give her big speech updating her government’s position on Brexit.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...korea-h-bomb-threat-focus-turns-brexit-speech
     
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    Frontrunning: September 22

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 22, 2017 7:47 AM

    • North Korea Ramps Up International Rancor With H-Bomb Threat (WSJ)
    • A nuclear test over the Pacific? Logical, terrifying (Reuters)
    • What's a 'dotard'? Kim's insult to Trump (Reuters)
    • From Rubble and Ruin, a Mexican Town Wonders How to Rebuild After the Earthquake (WSJ)
    • Bonuses Are Shrinking. Blame Hurricanes and Trump (BBG)
    • OPEC’s ‘Problem Children’ Are Holding Down Oil Prices (WSJ)
    • Trump Backers Cheer Economic Agenda, Blame GOP for Setbacks (WSJ)
    • Turkey to deploy troops inside Syria's Idlib - Erdogan (Reuters)
    • Uber Loses Its License to Operate in London (BBG)
    • Alabama Senate race tests Trump's ability to deliver his voters (Reuters)
    • Puerto Rico: No Power, No Phones and Lots of Damage (WSJ)
    • Mnuchin’s Incomplete Treasury Staff Could Be a Risk in Crisis (BBG)
    • Why Wages Aren’t Growing (BBG)
    • Trump’s Travel Ban Decision Could Set Off New Wave of Turmoil (BBG)
    • Corporate America Has Amassed a Record Amount of Cash (BBG)
    • Hurricane Maria churns toward Turks and Caicos and leaves 32 dead (Reuters)
    • The ‘Wife of the Future’ Designed for Japan's Lonely Men (BBG)
    • Australia Has a Taxing Problem When It Comes to Ghost Homes (BBG)
    • Mortgages Back in Fashion for London’s Priciest Homes (BBG)
    • Electric Cars Can Create the Biggest Disruption Since iPhone (BBG)
    • Defying Trump, Iran says will boost missile capabilities (Reuters)
    • The Trump-Loving Lawyer Who Won’t Stop Suing Fox News (BBG)
    • U.S. Tariffs on Solar Imports May Hinge on Free-Trade Deals (BBG)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Standard & Poor's became the last of the three major rating agencies to lower its view on China's creditworthiness, a move that came as China has taken forceful measures to tamp down risks and emphasize stability. on.wsj.com/2xzs9qg

    - North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho said the country could detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's speech before the United Nations. on.wsj.com/2xyUk8K

    - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co plans to cut its workforce by 10 percent, according to a person familiar with the plans. on.wsj.com/2xyUZqK

    - General Motors Co is laying off more than 250 workers from an engine factory in Canada and trimming production at two U.S. facilities, fallout from a strike at a vehicle-assembly plant in Ontario. on.wsj.com/2xz4m9N

    - Facebook Inc, under fire for its response to Russian activity on its site before the U.S. presidential election, agreed to hand over detailed information on thousands of Russian-backed ads to congressional investigators and said it would take steps to increase political transparency. on.wsj.com/2xyDbvZ

    - On the eve of a closely watched speech on Brexit by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the European Union's chief negotiator said Britain needs to speedily present concrete proposals on all the main sticking points for the talks to advance. on.wsj.com/2xycmrs

    FT

    The UK public sector posted its lowest August budget deficit in 10 years, according to figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility, leading economists to predict that finance minister Philip Hammond will have more room for giveaways in his November Budget.

    The UK Competition and Markets Authority will probe investment consultancies with a focus on conflicts of interest, barriers to entry and a lack of information for customers, after the industry was referred to the CMA by the Financial Conduct Authority because of “serious concerns” about the way it works.

    Prime Minister Theresa May will promise to strengthen legal protections for EU citizens living in the UK in a speech in Florence on Friday in hopes of breaking the stalemate in Brexit negotiations.

    UK’s food and drink industry cut back their capital investment last year and are “addicted” to cheap labour, after a second year of falling revenues, according to an annual review by OC&C, a consultancy.

    NYT

    - Facebook Inc said it would turn over 3,000 ads linked to Russia to Congress after growing scrutiny about its role in last November's presidential election. nyti.ms/2hmgql7

    - With a new executive order, U.S. President Donald Trump is expanding efforts to constrict North Korea's trade with the rest of the world. nyti.ms/2xkKepE

    - S&P Global Ratings downgraded its rating on China, saying the country's strong economic growth has been fueled by heavy borrowing — and that it expects that borrowing to continue. nyti.ms/2fecodT

    - The U.S. Department of Justice is seeking information about a New York law firm's work on behalf of a Russia-aligned former president of Ukraine - Viktor Yanukovych. nyti.ms/2hnB2cG

    - The Trump administration is preparing to relax Obama-era rules on drone strikes and commando raids outside conventional battlefields, according to officials familiar with internal deliberations. nyti.ms/2flsfes


    Britain

    The Times

    Dorothy Thompson, one of a handful of female chief executives to run a large UK-listed company, is to step down as chief executive of the power giant Drax Group Plc after 12 years in charge. (bit.ly/2fE9tvu)

    Britain's Co-op Group Ltd has sold its last remaining stake in the struggling Co-op Bank as its food business continues to grow and outperform the market. (bit.ly/2fEEcJ8)

    The Guardian

    Ryanair Holdings Plc Chief Executive Michael O'Leary, has escalated the airline's dispute with pilots, saying they do not have a "difficult job" and claiming he can force them to defer their time off. (bit.ly/2fEfKHI)

    The UK's first new nuclear power plant for 20 years could be delayed again, after trade unions for construction staff working on the 20 billion pound ($27.14 billion) Hinkley Point C project announced a ballot for strike action in a dispute over pay. (bit.ly/2fELWuB)

    The Telegraph

    Challenger bank Paragon has shaken up its management and restructured itself to accelerate its push into mainstream banking services, including car, business and development finance. (bit.ly/2fElUYt)

    Richard Cousins, chief executive of FTSE 100 catering giant Compass Group Plc, is to step down after more than a decade in the role during which he brought the firm back from the brink and turned it into one of the most successful constituents of the index. (bit.ly/2fDDThx)

    Sky News

    Uber is bracing itself for regulators‎ to deliver a crucial ruling that could trigger the removal of tens of thousands of private-hire drivers from London's streets. Transport for London‎ could announce as soon as Friday whether it is handing the world's biggest ride-hailing app a new five-year operating licence. (bit.ly/2fDFfc7)

    Paul Kahn, the former boss of Airbus's UK operations‎, is to resurface in a senior role at Cobham Plc, the embattled defence and aerospace group. (bit.ly/2xi0Hxi)

    The Independent

    Greenpeace campaigners in boats and kayaks have stormed a 23-tonne ship, in an attempt to stop it from delivering diesel cars made by Volkswagen AG to the UK. (ind.pn/2fDOmJI

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/frontrunning-september-22
     
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    SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap..............

    Fund Manager: Will the Fed Collapse the System?
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Sep 22, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    Fund Manager David Kranzler tells Silver Doctors the Fed cannot normalize its balance sheet without crashing the system.

    In this SD Weekly Metals & Markets, David Kranzler, Eric Dubin and Elijah Johnson discuss:
    - The physical vs. paper precious metal markets.
    - Will the Fed collapse the markets?
    - U.S. gold and silver mining companies under attack?
     
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    Rogue 420 - Interview - Brandon Pitcher (09/23/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Published on Sep 23, 2017
    CJ interviews Brandon Pitcher. Brandon Pitcher is an award winning developer, change agent, and educator; sharing his passion for social and ecological entrepreneurship, systems thinking, and sustainability for over 15 years.

    A ZERI certified practitioner and promoter of the Circular and Blue Economy (theblueeconomy.org), he has traveled to over 40 countries, researching dozens of projects and learning from leaders in the field. He has led workshops on design and technology solutions for over a decade, giving over 500 presentations including MIT, Yale, the United Nations University in Tokyo and many other venues. He currently collaborates with a variety of entrepreneurs and organizations, helping guide the transition to a more ecologically literate society.

    Brandon is the managing member of Blue Circle Development, a new partnership between multiple companies including the Stevia Corp. and Eltron Research and Development, created to add value throughout the supply chain of the industrial and medicinal cannabis markets. He is also an active Board Member of the National Cannabis Chamber of Commerce in Colorado.

    To learn more about Blue Circle Development:
    http://bluecircledevelopment.com/

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

    http://www.roguemoney.net
    https://www.facebook.com/ROGUEMONEY.NET/
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    Should we be buying Platinum - Why is it so cheap compared to Gold?
    Backyard Bullion



    Published on Sep 23, 2017
    Check out my website: http://backyardbullion.com/

    Thanks also to the new channel sponsor The Silver Forum!
    http://thesilverforum.com/ (106)

    A 1080p Camera & close ups of coins! What more can you want!?

    What do you think? Comment below!
     
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    Gregory Mannarino – Fed Will Be Forced To Print Money
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Sep 23, 2017

    Trader/analyst Gregory Mannarino warns that bills for storm damage and bankrupt states are piling up. U.S. territory Puerto Rico was destroyed by a hurricane and is bankrupt. States like Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio are also having debt problems. Mannarino contends, “This is how they are going to kill the currency. The Fed is going to be forced to print more cash out of thin air and loan them money, whatever it’s going to be, and then the currency dissolves. We’ve seen this before. . . . At some point, we are going to face an absolute and complete meltdown of the system. The debt based economic model is fraudulent. It’s a Ponzi scheme. The federal government is going to be asked to do something, and that will kill the currency, and we are going to get hyperinflation. That’s when the cash is going to start to move.”

    In closing, Mannarino says, “The central banks are going to take everything. You will be a serf at some particular time, serving your masters like you do already. I think we are going to be experiencing a new middle age–period.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Gregory Mannarino, founder of TradersChoice.net.
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    Stay connected with USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/join/

    All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/fed-going-to-...
     
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    We Are Building a Turn-Key Totalitarian State | John Rubino
    Reluctant Preppers



    Published on Sep 21, 2017
    From the global “De-Dollarization” pivot away from the US Dollar, to crypto-currencies threatening central banks, and geo-political tension hotspots casting a looming shadow to embroil the world’s people in a perpetual state of war and loss of liberty, where are we headed, and what can you do about it?

    John Rubino, founder of DollarCollapse.com, and co-author of “The Money Bubble” with GoldMoney’s James Turk, returns to Reluctant Preppers to spell out in his clear and friendly manner, just how stark the contrasts are in our future. Rubin offers a piercing rundown of the choices we face, and outlines some prudent courses of action we must consider to protect ourselves and our families.

    ====== iN THIS INTERVIEW ========

    De-Dollarization trend: where is the world headed, and what does it mean for those in the US?
    US can borrow unlimited money, build unassailable military power
    Russia, China, India buying up all the world’s gold production: WHY?
    China’s new gold-backed oil contracts priced in Yuan - will it spread to the rest of the world?
    Will sovereign states divest of US Dollars? What would that do to the US Treasuries, interest rates, and the US?

    Crypto-Currencies: Governments fighting back?
    A lot of people no longer trust their governments to manage money honestly.
    A technology whose time has arrived
    A direct slap to fiat currencies, as e-commerce is a threat to big-box retailers
    China shutdown Bitcoin exchanges, mining, ICOs
    Indian government announcing intentions to create domestic cryptos
    JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimond “Bitcoin is a fraud”
    Cryptos are a mortal threat to the big banks

    Geo-politics:
    One stray missile with a nuclear warhead could make all that we’ve been talking about out the window
    All it takes in one mistake by one pilot, or one miscalculation, and we could suddenly be in a global war.
    A lot of hot spots where superpowers are on opposite sides (Russia and US advisors on the ground in Syria, China and US in Korea,
    Global wars: unending stupid blunders, or a brilliant plan & fake crises by major governments to declare martial law, suspend freedoms, confiscate wealth, deny privacy rights, establish perpetual surveillance & global government dominating humanity as a serf class?
    We are building a “Turn-Key Totalitarian State,” police as an occupying army.

    What can you do?
    Vs. Jim Rickard scenario of a monetary reset, return to gold standard with gold at $10,000/oz, if dollar convertible to gold, then sustainable monetary system
    Think of ways to minimize the risk of this scenario
    physical precious metals
    productive farmland
    stable rental real-estate



    Subscribe (it's FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers for more ► http://bit.ly/Subscribe-Free

    Channel graphics by http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com
    Promotion by http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
     
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    Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 25, 2017 6:53 AM


    European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to potentially complicated coalition talks and perhaps even another early election. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names over worries of new real estate curbs as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady, down slightly by just over -0.1%, after closing little changed on Friday.

    For those who missed it, in the main political event over the weekend, the German election results showed Chancellor Merkel set for a 4th term after her CDU/CSU won the most votes, but performed weaker than expected and will need to undertake coalition discussions. In terms of the number of seats, CDU/CSU won 246 seats, SPD won 153 seats, AfD won 94 seats, FDP won 80 seats, Die Linke won 69 seats and Grune won 67 seats. Given the abysmal performance of the SPD (worst performance since WW2), the party have efused to enter into a Grand Coalition and instead will form the opposition (to avoid AfD becoming the opposition). As such, Merkel will now have to try and form a ‘Jamaica’ Coalition with the FDP and Green parties. However, the FDP initially distanced themselves from forming such an alliance. Furthermore, according the CSU are reportedly considering their historical alliance with the CDU following yesterday's result. Further reports suggest that the CSU are set to vote on their alliance with Merkel's CDU, However, according to a report on Germany's n-tv, CSU leader Seehofer said his party would remain a partner with Merkel's CDU, although Seehofer said he wants CSU leadership to vote on joint caucus.

    “The question is obviously now what it means for policy going forward” in Germany, Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Barclays Bank Plc, said on Bloomberg Television in reference to the election. “Investors are going to be closely following announcements on policy, especially given that fact that the AfD is not just nationalist, but also anti-euro to some extent.” As Bloomberg adds, the process of building a new government could take weeks, so markets may well move on from the result quickly.


    The Euro pushes lower through European trading as investors digested these political developments. German election fallout with smaller mandate for Merkel is coupled with latest Italian polls showing support for populist Five Star Movement. The resulting slide in the common currency, which saw the EURUSD slide below 1.189 this morning, sent European stocks modestly higher although the reaction was decided mixed among another session of near record low volumes as trader paralysis continues in a centrally-planned market. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell less than 0.1%, as losses in banks and miners offset gains in travel-and-leisure and media shares. Tullow Oil jumped 6.8% after saying Ghana’s new maritime boundary as determined by a tribunal doesn’t affect the TEN fields, and it expects to resume drilling around the end of the year.

    [​IMG]



    Also over the weekend, New Zealand held its general election on Saturday which resulted to a hung parliament, as no party gained the 61 seats needed for a majority. In terms of the projected results, the incumbent National Party won 58 seats, main opposition Labour Party won 45 seats, New Zealand First won 9 seats, Green Party won 7 seats, ACT won 1 seat and the Maori Party won 0 seats. The result has been broad-based weakness for the Kiwi with the AUDNZD rising over 100 pips from its Friday close of 1.0860.

    Separately, North Korea’s Foreign Minister stated that President Trump's labelling of Kim Jong Un as ‘Rocketman’ has made North Korean rockets’ visit to entire US mainland inevitable, while there were also separate reports that US Air Force B-1B Lancer Bombers flew over the waters east of North Korea on Saturday. Elsewhere, on Monday Japan PM Abe confirmed recent rumors, and announced he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on September 28th, to call a snap election and further cement his power following the recent spike in popularity.

    The yen pared a drop as Japan’s prime minister unveiled a fresh stimulus package and said he’ll dissolve the lower house of parliament ahead of a general election. Stocks in Europe edged higher helped by the weaker euro, but shares in developing nations headed for a third day retreating.

    Asian equities fell, with the region’s benchmark set for a third day of declines from its highest level in almost a decade, as investors weighed the outlook for returns and political uncertainty prompted some to cash in some of the gains from this year’s rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.5% to 162.25 in Hong Kong as about three stocks declined for every two that gained. Japanese stocks advanced, with the Topix closing at a fresh two-year high, as the yen weakened against the dollar on speculation of fiscal stimulus by Abe. “Some investors have decided to take some of their gains from the table after the recent rally drove valuations up in many Asian markets,” said John Teja, a director at PT Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia in Jakarta. “The biggest risk for the region and global equities market in general remains the political risk on the Korean peninsula.” The Asian equities benchmark has surged about 20 percent so far this year, putting it on course for its best annual performance since 2009, underpinned by low interest rates and an improving outlook for earnings growth.

    Of note, the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index plunged more than 5% overnight, its biggest single day drop, after China introduced new curbs on real estate over the weekend. The move send the Hang Seng lower by 1.4%, its biggest drop in 6 weeks.

    [​IMG]

    Also notable, China's offshore Yuan tumbled to 6.6205 as China's recent push to weaken the currency, including the weakest fixing since August 31, sent the CNH to the lowest level since August 28.

    [​IMG]

    In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.24 percent, the lowest in a week. Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 0.41 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 1.341 percent, the largest drop in more than two weeks.

    In commodities, gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,295.40 an ounce. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.1 percent to $50.63 a barrel, while Brent pushed to the highest level since February.

    The week is full of Fed speakers, with Yellen set to discuss monetary policy on Tuesday, while the calendar sets off with Dudley, Evans and Kashkari taking the podium today. Investors will look for cues on monetary policy as Fed and ECB officials speak this week: "In the U.S., the mystery of the missing inflation will likely feature in a slate of Fed-speak, with core inflation stuck at 1.4%," Societe Generale strategists including Stephen Gallagher wrote in note.

    President Donald Trump and Republican leaders plan to release a tax framework this week that would dramatically cut taxes for corporations and the wealthy and includes a proposal to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent. Scheduled earnings on Monday include Red Hat, Synnex.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,495.75
    • VIX up 5% to 10.07
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 383.59
    • MSCI Asia down 0.5% to 162.23
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.9% to 533.88
    • Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,397.58
    • Topix up 0.5% to 1,672.82
    • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 27,500.34
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,341.55
    • Sensex down 1.3% to 31,494.47
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.03% to 5,683.73
    • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,380.40
    • German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.431%
    • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1907
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.814%
    • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.627%
    • WTI Futures down 0.2% to $50.6/bbl;
    • Brent crude up 0.6% to $57.18
    • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,292.12
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.38
    Top Overnight News
    • Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union-led bloc is meeting in Berlin on Monday in the wake of the defeat of its Social Democratic Party challenger even while falling to the worst result since 1949
    • Ifo Sept. german business confidence index unexpectedly dropped a second month to 115.2, vs est. 116.0
    • New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English has claimed a mandate to form the next government after winning the biggest slice of the vote in Saturday’s election, even as opposition leader Jacinda Ardern refuses to concede defeat
    • Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he will dissolve the lower house of parliament on Sept. 28; general election set for Oct. 22, according to three people with knowledge of his ruling coalition’s plans
    • Japan’s Abe to order relevant officials to come up with 2t yen economic package at economic, fiscal panel meeting today, Yomiuri reports, without attribution
    • Hellman & Friedman to Buy Payments Firm Nets for $5.3 Billion
    • Switch Inc. Is Said to Aim for Year’s Third- Biggest Tech IPO
    • ABB Bolsters U.S. Business With $2.6 Billion GE Unit Deal
    • Unilever Buys Korean Makeup Firm for $2.7 Billion from Goldman
    • Coty Is Said to Mull Selling Some Fragrance Brands: WWD
    • Brazil Regulator Is Said to Back AT&T/Time Warner, Globo Says
    • Blackstone Is Said to Buy UIOF for Rs800 Crore: Economic Times
    • Amazon Unit Plans to Open Data Centers in Middle East by 2019
    • IPhone Disappointment Hammers Suppliers, Fuels Taiwan Outflows
    • European, U.S. Apple Suppliers May Move After DigiTimes Report
    • Top BP Executive Warns OPEC Needs to Prolong Oil Output Curbs
    • Iron Ore Succumbs to Bear Market and May Extend Slump Into $50s
    • Equifax’s Massive Hack Has a Tiny Silver Lining
    • Trump Tax Plan Said to Cut Taxes for Wealthy and Whack NY and NJ
    • GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat
    • Lockheed Says Talks Ongoing With Japan on Supply of THAAD System
    Asia equity markets began the week subdued as FX took much of the focus amid post-election hangovers from New Zealand and Germany where the incumbents in both won most votes but failed to get majorities, which moves the process on to coalition negotiations. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) were positive with the latter the outperformer on JPY weakness, while a 4- month high Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and reports that PM Abe is considering a JPY 2tln economic package added to upbeat tone. Chinese markets were subdued with Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) and Hang Seng (-1.1%) negative, as property names suffered from tighter restriction announcements, although the losses in the mainland were stemmed following a firm liquidity operation heading into next week’s National Day holidays. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat as pressure in the safe-haven from a positive risk sentiment in Japan, was counterbalanced by the BoJ’s presence in the market for a respectable amount just shy of JPY1trl in JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities.

    Top Asian News
    • China Developers Plunge as Government Expands Tightening
    • China Is Said to Plan Closer Oversight of State Company Funds
    • Unilever in $2.7 Billion Deal for Korean Cosmetics Maker
    A tepid start for European bourses with a sense of anxiety among investors following the result of the German election and a surprise rise in support for the far-right AFD party, subsequently, Chancellor Merkel has been left with a less stable position. Notable underperformers have been financial and commodity related names. However, the initial opening gap in European trade was filled through the session, aided by the performance in oil markets. A slight tick lower in German yields have supported bunds this morning with the yield modestly flatter. A soft start for peripherals as spreads widen against their German counterpart with Spain and Italy wider by 1.6bps and 1bps respectively. Further, Saudi Arabia plan to return to the global conventional bond market, as the Kingdom seeks to address the budget deficit and underpin economic reform efforts. Bunds saw a bid following the results of the German Ifo, with extensions of the move evident of political German uncertainty, as Twitter reports stated that the CSU are considering their historical alliance with the CDU following yesterday's result.

    Top European News
    • BOE Seeks Brexit Deal to Protect Existing Derivative Contracts
    • German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Drops for Second Month
    • Turkish Stocks Decline As Kurdish Referendum Weighs on Sentiment
    • Peripheral Euro Bonds Sell Off in Aftermath of German Election
    In FX, the EUR suffered following the weekend results despite Chancellor Merkel being set for a fourth term. Merkel’s CDU/CSU performed weaker than expected and will now need to undertake coalition discussions, likely set to attempt to form a ‘Jamaica’ Coalition with the FDP and Green Parties, with FDP being an initial hurdle. EUR/USD rejected 1.20 on Friday, and struggled as Asian trade began, trading through 1.19, now consolidating just above these levels. EUR/GBP saw similar price action, finding support ahead of September’s lows. A break through the 0.8774 area could see trade once again in the start of 2017’s trading range. NZD was also heavy following their election results, and in line with Germany, despite a victory for the National Party, a majority was also not secured. This places the next government at the hands of New Zealand First Party’s leader and effective ‘kingmaker’ Winston Peters, who is all too familiar with this obligation having supported both the National Party and main opposition Labour in past governments. NZD/USD find some support following initial selling pressure, support at September 18th’s low held, with some buying evident around these levels. AUD/NZD held just through 1.0800, yet continuing to show a downward trend following the stacked offers seen around 1.1150 through September.

    In commodities, prices were mostly range-bound which kept WTI subdued, while copper was unchanged amid a subdued risk tone. Elsewhere, gold (-0.3%) was pressured from early trade due to a firmer greenback, after the currency benefitted from political uncertainty weighing on a couple of its major counterparts post-elections.

    On today's calendar we have Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment all of which missed expectations (Current Conditions 123.6 vs Exp. 124.8; Expectations 107.4, Exp. 107.9; Business Climate 115.2, exp. 116). Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.2, prior 0
    • 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Workforce Development
    • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11.5, prior 17
    • 12:40pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
    • 6:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Townhall in Grand Forks, North Dakota
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    3 months today until Xmas. How time flies. Normally I’d associate Xmas with relaxing, lie-ins and having good family time. However Xmas will now be forever associated in my eyes with the utter chaos of my current life. I’ll let readers do their own arithmetic but 2 year old Maisie was due on September 23rd and the twins were technically due yesterday (they are nearly 4 weeks now!). So to avoid yet more chaos in 12 months’ time this Xmas you’ll be most likely to find me in a Tibetan monastery.

    One wonders how whether Mrs Merkel would like her own private retreat to prepare herself for the difficult time ahead after a disappointing yet still overwhelming victory in yesterday's German election. As we highlighted last week, the election was always going to be purely about the coalition arithmetic and deals. These are likely to be more difficult after the results. To recap Mrs Merkel's CDU/SCU polled 33% (37% in final polls on Friday) against the SPD's 20.5% (22% in final polls). Combined these two parties saw their lowest share of the vote since World War II (since 1949 for Merkel’s party). The AfD (Alternatives for Germany) came third with 12.6% of votes (11% expected on Friday) and will now be the first far right party in the Bundestag since the Nazi party. They beat the pro-business FDP (10.7% - Free democrats Party), Greens (8.9%) and the post-Communist Left (9.2%). Given that the SPD now want to be the main opposition rather than join in another grand coalition, the so called Jamaican coalition of the CDU/SCU, FDP and Greens is likely, but there will be some big idealogical differences to negotiate around. The FDP are known to be against further Euro integration which will be one of the key takeaways from the election. The FDP leader Christian Lindner has indicated a willingness to join in coalition talks, but said that "We want to organise a change of direction for our country” and also tweeted that "€60bn Eurozone budget flowing into France or Italy is inconceivable for us...a line in the sand”. Meanwhile, a leading Green politician told broadcaster ZDF that talks will be "very hard, we are far apart on many issues".

    I spoke to DB's Mark Wall after the results and we discussed the impact on euro area integration. As Mark said, earlier this summer the "Macron Pivot" suggested a surprising counter thrust against anti-EU populism. Marcon turned to Merkel for support to strengthen the euro area with a new integration push. However her capacity to reciprocate may be a lot more limited now. Some might see Macron's proposals -- due to be fleshed out in a speech tomorrow -- as unhelpful in the circumstances, in timing if not in substance. Mark thinks Germany will be less able to relax its traditional demand for strong conditionality on any new common funds and the speed of progress towards an agreement could now be slower and more fraught. If the result takes upward pressure off the euro it may help cement an ECB exit announcement on 26 October in line with baseline expectations (six month extension of QE at EUR40bn), but hopes for a significant policy rebalancing for the euro area, facilitated by easier fiscal policy/support for economic convergence, are likely to get dialled back. It could also make it more difficult for Merkel to gather the support necessary for a Weidmann Presidency of the ECB, if that was the plan. So lots to chew over.

    Elsewhere, France’s Macron suffered a small set back with his party losing 6 seats as the Senate renewed 170 out of its 348 seats. Notably, the practical impact is likely limited near term as the National assembly (where Macron has a clear majority) has the final say in legislations over the Senate. However it perhaps reflects that his honeymoon as leader has been pretty short.

    This morning, the EURUSD is trading a touch weaker (-0.18%) as we type. Asian markets are mixed but little changed as we type, with the Kospi (-0.44%), Hang Seng (-0.83%) and Chinese bourses (-0.3%) all down modestly, while the Nikkei (+0.58%) and ASX 200 (+0.19%) are both up slightly. Japanese stocks have been helped by reports that Japan's Abe will announce a fresh stimulus package alongside the expected snap election decision later this morning.

    After the dust has settled in Germany, the most important event of this week is likely to be the latest on the tax reform agenda in the US. This weekend in between going to 2nd birthday parties, changing tens of nappies, trying to watch Liverpool play while bathing a toddler, hours of sterilising bottle feeding and milk expressing equipment, and being forced into action every couple of hours at night, I managed to read the very useful "A primer on tax reform and the upcoming budget debate" by DB's Brett Ryan. In reading this you get a feel for how complicated things are and how possible it'll be that nothing gets done. Regular legislation would take 60 votes in the Senate and bipartisan support and allow for proper tax reform. However this is seemingly impossible. The reality is that any changes will likely be made through the reconciliation process. However this first requires a budget being passed by Congress which hasn't been achieved since the Democratic super-majority in 2009-10.

    The only good news is that we think that any positive tax reform has been priced out of markets so there's a limit to how much disappointment there can be to continued failure. This week we would expect a vague outline of what will be pursued from the so-called "Big 6" (including Treasury Sec Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, Ryan, Senate majority leader McConnell). Overnight, the Washington post reported Republicans were “targeting” a corporate tax rate of 20%, but plans remains fluid. Elsewhere, Trump said “we’ll see what happens, but I hope it’s going to be 15%”, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the upcoming tax plan will be “getting rid of lots of deductions”.

    So with German politics in a state of flux and US politics increasingly fraught, suddenly the UK looks a bit of a stable safe haven after Mrs May's speech on Friday. Although it hasn't unlocked doors, it’s been seen as a step in the right direction away from the likelihood of a hard Brexit. In the speech, PM May clarified: 1) UK would seek a transitional deal that would allow continue market access on current terms for c2 years post Brexit (under the framework of 'the existing structure of EU rules and regulations), which in effect leaves UK as a rules taker in the EU until March 2021, 2) UK is committed to the current EU budgetary round to 2020 and meeting past financial commitments, but avoided explicit numbers on the divorce bill, but 3) in terms of a future trade agreement, there was little new in terms of content, although she ruled out both EEA and Canada style options. Overall, DB’s Oliver Harvey believes the tone of her speech was constructive and the initial reaction from EU negotiator Barnier has been cautiously positive. For more details. Later on, the Times reported Mrs May is willing to pay up to GBP40bln in return for a transition deal. Focus now turns to the EU-UK Brexit talks which resume today.

    Quickly recapping the market’s performance on Friday. US (S&P +0.06%) and European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.09%) were little changed following North Korea’s threat of testing a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean. Gold rose 0.47% and core bond markets were slightly firmer (UST 10y yields -2.7bp; Bunds -0.7bp; Gilts -0.9bp), partly reflecting the bias for safe haven assets. The US dollar index dipped 0.10% while Sterling fell 0.56% not helped by Moody's late downgrade. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.22%, while Iron Ore continues to fall (-3.83%; -12% for the week) on growing concerns of reduced demand from Chinese steel producers.

    Away from the markets and onto central bankers’ commentaries. In the US, the Fed’s John Williams said “I do expect us to need to raise rates gradually….it’s not like we need to raise rates a lot over the next couple of years”. He also noted a “new normal” for rates may be 2.5%. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Esther George reiterated “I support an approach that removes (financial) accommodation in small doses” and the Fed’s Robert Kaplan noted “there are number of reasons the US isn’t reaching its inflation target and a number of those are not transitory”. Over in Europe, ECB’s VP Vitor Constancio noted “the recent euro appreciation may have a more limited dampening effect on inflation than what would be implied by historical averages”.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. The MarkitSeptember flash PMIs for Germany and Eurozone was above market’s expectations. In Germany, the composite PMI rose 2ppts to 57.8 (vs. 55.7 expected), marking a 77 month high. The solid growth was driven by both the manufacturing sector (60.6 vs. 59 expected) and the services sector (55.6 vs. 53.7 expected). The Eurozone’s composite PMI also surprised on the upside, with the index up 1ppt to 56.7 (vs. 55.6 expected), just below this year’s cyclical highs. DB’s Peter Sidorov noted the rise was seen in both sectors, with manufacturing reaching new cyclical highs (led by Germany). In services, there were big rebounds in both Germany and France.

    Over in the US, the composite PMI fell 0.7pts to 55.6 (vs. 55.3 previous), with a 0.2pt rise in the manufacturing PMI to 53.0 more than offset by a 0.9pt decline in the services PMI to 55.1 (vs. 55.7 expected). Elsewhere, the final readings for France’s 2Q GDP was broadly unchanged at 0.5% qoq and 1.8% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected).

    To the week ahead now. Today starts with Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment. Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. Onto Tuesday, Japan’s services producer price index will be out early in the morning. Then in France, there is manufacturing and business confidence indicators. In the UK,finance loans for housing are due. Over in the US, there is the CB consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as new home sales data. Turning to Wednesday, Italy’s July industrial orders along with confidence indicators on manufacturing, consumer and economic sentiment will be due. France’s consumer confidence and the Eurozone’s M3 money supply data are also due. Over in the US, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. For Thursday, Germany’s September CPI (with state based CPI data) and GfK consumer confidence readings will be due. For the Eurozone, there is a range of confidence indicators including: consumers, business climate, economy and industrial. Over in the US, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP, Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. Finally on Friday, there will be numerous data out of Japan early in the morning, including: August national CPI, IP, jobless rate, retail sales and vehicle production. Further, China’s Caixin China PMI manufacturing index and UK’s GfK consumer confidence will also be out early. Then we have CPI for the Eurozone along with CPI & PPI for France and Italy. In Germany, there is unemployment change for September. In the UK, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP along with mortgage approvals and money supply M4 stats. Over in the US, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...tory-merkel-chinese-property-developers-crash
     
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    Frontrunning: September 25

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 25, 2017 7:58 AM


    • Merkel’s Bloc Regroups After ‘Nightmare Victory’ in Germany (BBG)
    • Germany’s Election Results Reflect European Unease on Economy, Immigration (WSJ)
    • Chastened Merkel looks for coalition partners after vote (Reuters)
    • Jews around world concerned by far-right breakthrough in German election (Reuters)
    • Iraqi Kurds Vote in Independence Referendum (WSJ)
    • GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat (BBG)
    • Trump Tax Plan to Cut Taxes for Corporations and Wealthy (BBG)
    • Trump’s Revised Travel Ban Opens New Stage in Legal Fight (BBG)
    • Trump’s War With NFL Threatens to Overshadow Rollout of Tax Plan (BBG)
    • Trump’s NFL Anthem Crusade Angers Big Campaign Donors (BBG)
    • China Eyeing Rule Change That Could Aid Tesla (WSJ)
    • Springsteen Tickets Hit $10,000, and Wall Street Gets Scalped (BBG)
    • Equifax’s Massive Hack Has a Tiny Silver Lining (BBG)
    • Colleges Move to Close Gender Gap in Science (WSJ)
    • iPhone Disappointment Hammers Suppliers (BBG)
    • Funding Tesla Annoys Automakers That Need Electric Car Credits (BBG)
    • Department Stores Cling to Power Over Landlords on Mall Upgrades (BBG)
    • In World’s Hottest Oil Patch, Jitters Mount That a Bust Is Near (BBG)
    • GE Agrees to Sell Industrial Unit to ABB for $2.6 Billion (WSJ)
    • Activist Funds Seek Ouster of Tuesday Morning CEO (WSJ)
    • Unilever to Buy Korean Skin-Care Firm for $2.7 Billion (WSJ)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new ban on entry to the U.S. that applies a range of restrictions on nationals from eight countries, including new targets Chad, North Korea and Venezuela. on.wsj.com/2fpx1ay

    - Uber Technologies Inc is pushing to meet the London regulator which on Friday said it would refuse to reissue the ride-hailing company's operating license there. on.wsj.com/2xpal19

    - Two investment funds are calling for new leadership at Tuesday Morning Corp, the latest in a series of activist campaigns targeting chief executives. on.wsj.com/2xpjsPq

    - Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative alliance won the German election, but a steep drop in its support and an anti-immigrant party's surge signaled political turbulence ahead for Europe's largest economy. on.wsj.com/2frWa4G

    - Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner has used a personal email account to correspond with colleagues in the White House, his attorney confirmed on Sunday. on.wsj.com/2fri6fY

    - Senate Republican leaders appeared to face a difficult path to reviving their repeal of the Affordable Care Act, after Senator Susan Collins of Maine said she could not envision voting for the bill. on.wsj.com/2wMeLzP


    FT

    Uber Technologies Inc said it was willing to discuss how to better support police investigations and to strengthen official reporting procedures for private hire companies, in an attempt to resolve the issues that prompted Transport for London to revoke its licence to operate in London.

    In one of the most high-profile prosecutions ever brought by the Serious Fraud Office, three former Tesco Plc will stand trial on Monday for their alleged role in an accounting scandal in which Tesco was found to have inflated its profit by 326 million pounds ($440 million) in 2014.

    UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was accused of making Labour a “laughing stock” by an MP from his party after Corbyn used his support group Momentum to prevent delegates at the annual conference from getting a vote on Brexit — even as he claimed to be making the party more democratic.

    The Labour Party’s John McDonnell will on Monday introduce a policy to put a cap on credit card interest payments to tackle Britain’s debt crisis, a measure that would be similar to restrictions imposed on payday lenders by the Financial Conduct Authority.


    NYT

    - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is shifting its law enforcement strategy and expects to increasingly look to banks and other financial institutions to come clean on their own about misconduct and problems in the market. nyti.ms/2fJWw3d

    - U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new order indefinitely banning almost all travel to the United States from seven countries including most citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad and North Korea. nyti.ms/2xzbkeF

    - The revised version of the health bill, authored by Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, would provide extra money for an unnamed "high-spending low-density state," a last-minute change seemingly aimed at Alaska and its holdout Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, who has yet to say how she will vote. nyti.ms/2wgfS6m


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Canadian authorities have started to collaborate with their Swedish counterparts in the continuing corruption investigation into Bombardier Inc's $340-million contract to sell railway equipment in Azerbaijan. tgam.ca/2hs3Lgz

    ** Donald Trump's unpredictable personality and hostile opposition to free trade is looming over NAFTA talks as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his negotiating team remain uncertain as to what the U.S. President wants from a reformed pact, or whether he would even sign a deal and risk alienating his base. tgam.ca/2htFTZU

    ** In a survey of 53 companies conducted by Nanos Research for the American Chamber of Commerce, U.S.-headquartered firms operating in Canada said their biggest concerns about the bilateral trading relationship involve U.S. protectionism. tgam.ca/2htkfVI

    NATIONAL POST

    ** More than half of Canadians think rising interest rates will negatively impact their personal finances, but only about a quarter of them have an emergency fund to deal with any potential hardship according to a new poll by Forum Research Inc. bit.ly/2hsc5Ah


    Britain

    The Times

    The credibility of an expert witness put up by the pharmaceuticals industry has been shot down by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in a legal row over drugs pricing, according to court papers obtained by the Times. bit.ly/2fKKoix

    A row over a confidential regulatory report into the activities of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's restructuring division has descended into farce after television presenter Noel Edmonds claimed to have a copy. bit.ly/2fKtwse

    The Guardian

    Royal Bank of Scotland has postponed plans to introduce a cut-price credit card amid concerns about the 200 billion-pound of lending amassed by UK households. bit.ly/2fKbFSa

    UK's antislavery body has launched 185 investigations since May, nearly double its total for the whole of last year, after assuming powers that allow it to look beyond the food and farming sector. bit.ly/2fKA3Dq

    The Telegraph

    The boss of the Chinese-backed private equity firm behind a proposed 550 million pound ($743 million) takeover of Imagination Technologies Plc is already eyeing further acquisition opportunities in UK. bit.ly/2fKI7nF

    The pay gap between male and female managers is worsening with women earning an average 12,000 pounds less than their male colleagues, according to figures from the Chartered Management Institute and XpertHR. bit.ly/2fIBphN

    Sky News

    Carlyle, the buyout firm‎ whose British investments include the RAC breakdown service, is close to entering a period of exclusivity during which it would seek to conclude a takeover of tobacco supplier Palmer & Harvey. bit.ly/2fK52zg

    U.S. taxi firm Uber Technologies Inc could stay on the road if it met the "reasonable" demands set out by Transport for London, senior Labour frontbencher Diane Abbott has said. bit.ly/2fKD6vk

    The Independent

    Britain's Labour Party is to announce plans for a broad cap on the total interest anyone can pay to a credit card company, potentially helping some three million Britons trapped in a debt spiral. ind.pn/2fKcGJX

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/frontrunning-september-25
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-25-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    Fundamentally the US economy is strong enough to withstand an interest rate hike. Central banks stance of various economic matters like interest rates also tell us their currency stance. Currency market moves in the third quarter will be the key to precious metals and base metals. The third quarter of the year favored US dollar bears. If fundamentals dictate currency markets in the final quarter, the final quarter should belong to US dollar bulls.

    Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder
    By: Mark O’Byrne
    – ‘Commodities King’ Gartman sees $1,400 gold surge in months
    – “Gold is the one currency that will do the best of all…”
    – Pullback below $1300 “is relatively inconsequential”
    – Use gold price weakness to be a buyer “no question”
    – Bullish on gold due to central banks and easy monetary policy and gold will be even higher in euro terms
     
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    TVR [#408] #408 09-25-2017 END OF DAY REPORT: EVERYONE WANTS A PIECE OF THE BLOCKCHAIN
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Sep 25, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: September-26-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    North Korea comes to the rescue of gold and silver bulls. Germany’s election result and Japan’s snap election calls are also supporting gold. A war with North Korea can result in gold and silver rising twenty percent over the next few months. I am serious and not joking. Gold prices will fall whenever markets ignore North Korean risk. Sentiment is hyper bullish for gold. Gold demand is everywhere be it ETF, jewelry or physical investment.
     
  31. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  32. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    James Turk: Gold and Silver Solutions to Monetary Madness
    The Daily Coin.org



    Published on Sep 25, 2017
    Thanks for watching. Subscribe, Share, Like

    Please visit James Turk - https://www.goldmoney.com
    https://lendborrowtrust.com

    Please visit Rory - http://www.thedailycoin.org

    Over the past several months it has become quiet clear that we had best be seeking solutions for this ongoing monetary madness that will safe guard our our individual needs and future wealth preservation. This is not a great mystery nor is it some "theory" dreamt up by basement dwelling lunatic. All one needs to do is read the headlines around the world and the picture is as clear as bright sunny day.
     
  33. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Euro Tumbles Ahead Of Yellen, Macron Speeches As Stocks Shake Off Korean Crisis

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 26, 2017 6:56 AM

    S&P futures are flat after Monday’s drop in the S&P 500 where a rout in Apple weighed on tech companies and tensions with North Korea persist; Asian stocks are modestly lower while Europe has shaken off the Korean crisis and is in the green on the back of a sharp drop in the EURUSD which has tumbled below 1.18 as the USD rises ahead of much anticipated speeches by the Fed Chair and the French president.

    At 12:45pm ET Janet Yellen is due to speak at an economics conference in Cleveland on the topic of "inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy", while other U.S. and European central bankers will also offer more clues to the path of monetary policy. Investors will be parsing Yellen's words for clues on whether the U.S. central bank will stick to plans to raise interest rates in December. “Investors are not fully up to speed with the risk of hawkish signals from Fed officials,” Mizuho strategist Antoine Bouvet said. “The Fed is back in a situation where it would want to show optimism at the very least, and the market should be pricing in more hikes in the coming months and quarters than it is currently.” Money markets currently point to a 70 percent chance of a hike in December but only a 20% chance of a further hike in March 2018, and just under 3 rate hikes for the next two years.

    Another big speech on today's calendar will be delivered by French president Emmanuel Macron: it is being billed as a big Euro integration platform, although it comes as a bad time, just 2 days after Merkel's ability to embrace the idea has taken a set-back. Looking at what’s expected from Macron, the press have suggested that the speech will include plans for a permanent finance minister for the euro area, a euro area budget worth several percentage points of aggregate GDP and a “European Monetary Fund”. As if to acknowledge the necessity of progress, German Finance Minister Schaeuble recently reciprocated, saying he intends to publish proposals for a reinvigorated ESM shortly after the election. We will see if the German election result cautions either. After the dust settles in Germany, the rush to integrate may need to slow. Merkel’s room for manoeuvre on conditionality just got narrower, meaning progress towards integration will likely be slower and the scale of common resources agreed will likely be more limited.

    While global equities were mostly flat, the big movers overnight were the rising dollar, and the sliding euro. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, markets attempted to stabilize as investors digested a host of catalysts from North Korean war threats and central-bank policy to tailwinds for oil and the aftermath of the German election.

    The euro tumbled below $1.1800, its weakest since August 25, sliding below its 55-DMA for the first time in 5 months, as investors continued to unwind long positions, with fresh tactical selling pressure setting in ahead of Yellen's speech. What started off as a knee-jerk reaction after the German election now appears to have become a broader hit on euro bulls’ conviction. Concern that the European Central Bank may not shed sufficient light on stimulus tapering even at its next meeting is weighing on the sentiment, amid growing speculation that the $1.20 level marks the limit of the central bank’s tolerance for gains in the common currency for now, Bloomberg notes. Additionally, the euro’s inability to stage a significant rally during the most recent war of words between the U.S. and North Korea also raised doubts whether it can re-test $1.20 level soon enough.



    [​IMG]

    The good news for Europe is that a weaker euro automatically meant higher European stocks, and the Stoxx 600 was trading about 0.2% higher at publication time after opening in the red. In terms of sector specific performance, healthcare names sit at the bottom of the pack with Swiss heavyweight Roche trading lower after being downgraded at Exane. To the upside, energy names lead the way higher amid yesterday’s surge in crude prices, with RBC’s downgrade of Total failing to place too much pressure on the sector.

    There was no further reaction in Asia trading hours to the most recent threats from North Korea, and the risk-off moved quickly stalled (though it has not yet been reversed). The general feeling in Asia is that this is simply further noise – although as Citi notes some spooky parallels have been drawn with the infamous 1969 EC-121 shoot-down incident, when NK did shoot down a US reconnaissance plane, and Nixon resisted the urge to hit the big red button. Asian stocks fluctuated without clear direction with neither large gains or losses across the the main indexes. The Korean Kospi was modestly lower as won drops following latest escalation in U.S.-North Korea rhetoric. Yesterday's Nasdaq rout pressured ASX 200 (-0.22%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.33%), although strength in energy names following a 3% rally in crude later helped stem downside in Australia. Hang Seng (+0.05%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.06%) also conformed to the lacklustre, indecisive tone amid a lack of drivers and a weaker PBoC liquidity operation.

    As the Euro fells, the dollar strengthened against most G-10 peers as recovery from the multi-year low hit earlier this month continues. The New Zealand dollar underperformed after business confidence plunged to a two-year low. The pound briefly supported as EUR/GBP cross breaks through yesterday’s session low. Treasuries edge lower from overnight highs, initially spurred by North Korean risks. Yields marginally higher across the curve, long-end flattens with most participants eagerly awaiting Yellen speech for hints on next policy direction

    Meanwhile safe havens such as gold took a breather. The yellow metal and the Swiss franc pared some of yesterday’s gains, which followed North Korea’s declaration it could shoot down U.S. warplanes. WTI crude fell, but remained close to a five-month high after also surging on Monday as Turkey threatened to shut down Kurdish crude shipments.

    [​IMG]

    In bigger picture terms, markets continue to oscillate between risk-on and risk-off stances since early August as tensions simmer on the Korean Peninsula. Equities have edged away from recent record highs as the U.S. and North Korea trade threats, and now an assortment of global political risks look set to further cloud the outlook.

    “I think we have a classic case of risk-on, risk-off across markets,” said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy, John Hardy. “There is a lot being attributed to North Korea but I think there are a lot of other factors here,” he added, citing the drop in Apple and big U.S. tech stocks and the weekend German elections that saw a far-right party enter parliament.

    The yen, which traditionally performs strongly in jittery markets, was beginning to fade meanwhile having gone as high as 111.550 yen to the dollar as gold also dropped off a 1-week high it had hit on Monday. That came after North Korea’s foreign minister said a tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump that “little Rocket Man” might not be around for too long amounted to a declaration of war.

    The bond market’s reaction to the latest escalation in tension between North Korea and the U.S. proved short-lived. Yields on U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds fell to a day’s low follow North Korean Foreign Minister’s Ri Yong Ho comments on Trump’s tweet. Both traded back up early on Tuesday in what analysts say reflects a widespread belief that diplomacy will prevail. All other euro zone bond yields were also a touch higher.

    A rise in oil to a 26-month high, which bolsters inflation, and an upcoming sale of two-year German debt should also keep upward pressure on yields. Brent crude futures dipped fractionally to $58.85 a barrel, having earlier hit $59.49, the highest since July 2015 and more than 34 percent above the 2017 low. The rise was supported by Turkey’s threat to cut crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region as well as signs that market rebalancing is accelerating. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan threatened on Monday to cut off the pipeline that carries 500,000-600,000 barrels of crude per day from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, intensifying pressure on the Kurdish autonomous region over its independence referendum.

    Alongside geopolitics, this week’s bevy of central bank speakers continues to offer more clues to the path of monetary policy and the fate of stimulus. It’s Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s turn on Tuesday, who will weigh in as policy makers continue to disagree on whether to raise U.S. interest rates again this year. Finally investors will be monitoring the ongoing saga that President Donald Trump’s domestic policies have become in a bid to gauge the chances of any meaningful tax reform in the world’s biggest economy.

    Economic data include new home sales, consumer confidence. Scheduled earnings include Nike, Carnival, Micron

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.01% to 2,495.25
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 384.55
    • MSCI Asia down 0.3% to 161.66
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.5% to 529.61
    • Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,330.19
    • Topix unchanged at 1,672.74
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.05% to 27,513.01
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,343.58
    • Sensex down 0.05% to 31,610.25
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,670.98
    • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,374.32
    • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $58.65/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,306.87
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.85
    • German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.402%
    • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1811
    • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 1.814%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.622%
    Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
    • European and Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction as equity markets shrugged off mounting geopolitical tensions
    • NZD extended on political uncertainty, as USD gains some ground as markets await Yellen
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US new home sales, APIs, ECB’s Praet, Fed’s Yellen, Mester and Brainard, US 2yr note auction
    Top Overnight News
    • The U.S. has gamed out four or five different scenarios for how the crisis with North Korea will be resolved, and “some are uglier than others,” National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said as tensions remain high between the two countries
    • U.S. Senate Republicans fail in their push to repeal Obamacare; Senator Susan Collins said Monday the bill would cause too many Americans to lose insurance
    • French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron will make proposals for re-shaping Europe that he acknowledges will need German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s support to push through
    • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech last week failed to break the Brexit stalemate, as the EU demands more from the U.K. if there’s to be any hope of a discussion about trade next month. As the fourth round of talks kicked off, both sides remain divided over when Britain should agree to the size of its bill
    • While Austria may have successfully sold a 100-year bond this month, other European countries may be slow to follow suit given the concerns over demand, liquidity and legal restrictions
    • The Bank of Greece plans to start stress tests for the country’s four systemic banks in late February with a view to determine by June if they need fresh capital before the end of the Greek bailout program
    • CVC Is Said to Mull Options for $4 Billion Drugmaker Alvogen
    • Baidu’s iQiyi Is Said to Seek a U.S. IPO at Over $8b Valuation
    • Jaguar Land Rover Is Said to Hunt for Luxury Brand Purchases
    • Demise of Obamacare Repeal Shows How Far GOP Remains From Goal
    • Turkey Warns Iraq Kurds It Can ‘Close Valves’ on Oil Exports
    • Nestle Aims to Boost Profitability Amid Pressure From Loeb
    • Trump’s State-Tax Plan Could Cause Headaches for 52 Republicans
    • Banks Lobbying to Stem MiFID’s Spread Spark a U.S. Client Revolt
    • Uber’s New ‘Good Cop’ Tack Will Face Test in U.S. City Tussles
    Asian stocks lacked any solid direction after the weak momentum from US where all 3 major indices closed negative due to geopolitical concerns, while the Nasdaq took the brunt of the worst day for the tech sector in over a month. This pressured ASX 200 (-0.22%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.33%), although strength in energy names following a 3% rally in crude later helped stem downside in Australia. Hang Seng (+0.05%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.06%) also conformed to the lacklustre, indecisive tone amid a lack of drivers and a weaker PBoC liquidity operation. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with only minimal support seen from the cautious risk tone in Japan, while today’s 40yr auction also failed to spur firm demand despite the b/c at the highest since 2015, as this was relatively stable from the prior. PBoC injected CNY 40bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6076. BoJ Minutes from July 19th-20th meeting stated that Japan's economy was expanding moderately and that financial conditions were highly accommodative. The minutes also stated that exports are on an increasing trend and that momentum towards achieving the 2% price stability target was being maintained. RBA's Bullock says high levels of debt leave households vulnerable and that RBA will take this into consideration for monetary policy.

    Top Asian News
    • Cindat Capital Says Estimates Put China NPLs Up to $1 Trillion
    • Euro Hits One-Month Low as Stops Triggered Across the Board
    • Iron Ore Faces ‘New Reality’ on Flight to Quality, BHP Says
    • Modi Starts $2.5 Billion Plan to Electrify Every India Home
    • Singapore Cryptocurrency Firms Facing Bank Account Closures
    European equites started the session on the backfoot, albeit modestly so with lingering geopolitical tensions continuing to act as a source of concern for investor sentiment. In terms of sector specific performance, healthcare names sit at the bottom of the pack with Swiss heavyweight Roche trading lower after being downgraded at Exane. To the upside, energy names lead the way higher amid yesterday’s surge in crude prices, with RBC’s downgrade of Total failing to place too much pressure on the sector. From a fixed income perspective, the 10yr Bund trades relatively flat after initial losses have been pared throughout the morning. However, analysts at IFR highlight that paper could be halted at 162.05 which marks the 50% retracement of the 8th-21st September move. In the periphery, yields continue to remain resilient to the fallout of the German election with RBC downplaying the concerns for peripheral markets in a research note this morning. That said, investors will continue to remain wary over potential Catalan-related headlines over the coming days.

    Top European News
    • ECB Is Said to Start Stress Tests at Greek Banks in February
    • EU Dangles Praise for U.K. But Asks More for Brexit Trade
    • London Luxury Home Values Set for 20% Rebound Over Five Years
    • BNP Paribas Aims to Grow German Revenue 8% Per Year Through 2020
    • Monte Paschi Restructuring Will Cut Bank in Half: EU Official
    • Pandora’s U.S. September Campaign Failed, Carnegie Says: Ritzau
    • Deutsche Wohnen, Vonovia Lead Europe Real Estate Stocks Higher
    In currencies, the JPY remains at better levels after yesterday’s comments from the North Korean Foreign Minister in which he stated that the war of words from President Trump has been deemed as a declaration of war. Additionally, PM Abe also called a snap election which will likely be held around late October, as such uncertainty heading into the event could suggest that risks are skewed to the downside in USD/JPY.

    With regards to the USD itself, the USD-index is broadly higher as participants await comments from Fed’s Yellen and
    look for any further clarity on the train of thought at the Fed after last week’s meeting very much left a Dec hike on the table.
    Additionally, broader USD strength has also likely been supported by EUR softness which was initiated by a break of September’s
    lower in EUR/GBP.

    NZD notably weaker overnight with NZD/USD slipping 0.45%, as political uncertainties, alongside poor overnight data weighed on
    the Kiwi. As it stands, the RBNZ are not seen lifting interest rates until Sep’18, according to OIS markets. Focus will be on the
    comments from the RBNZ where there may be an air of caution given the latest election results.

    In commodities, both WTI and Brent have given back a small percentage of yesterday’s noteworthy gains which were largely triggered by tensions surrounding the Kurdish independence referendum. As such, WTI has briefly moved back below the USD 52/bbl level in early European trade. However, markets will likely remain sensitive to any Turkish involvement in the matter after President Erdogan threatened to cut off the pipelines that transfer oil from Northern Iraq. Elsewhere, copper was seen higher during Asia-Pac trade while safe-haven gold was mildly underpinned as geopolitical concerns lingered. Local press reports state that ASX will likely suspend most of Australian listed gold sector if WA government budget with new gold royalty increases is passed

    Looking at the day ahead, there is the Conference board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as new home sales data. Onto other events, there is the BOJ Minutes for its July meeting. In the US, the Fed’s Mester, Brainard and Bostic will speak. Further, Mrs Yellen will speak on inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy. Back in the Europe, UK’s PM May and EU president Tusk will meet to discuss Brexit, while France’s Macron will outline his plans to reform the EU.

    US Event Calendar
    • 9am: S&P Case Shiller 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.2%, prior 0.11%; 20-City YoY NSA, est. 5.7%, prior 5.65%
    • 9:30am: Fed’s Mester Moderates Session NABE
    • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 585,000, prior 571,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. 2.45%, prior -9.4%
    • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 120, prior 122.9; Present Situation, prior 151.2; Expectations, prior 104
    • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 13, prior 14
    • 10:30am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on Labor Market Disparities
    • 11:30am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks to the Atlanta Press Club
    • 12:45pm: Yellen Speaks on Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    What happens when you cross a middle aged man with two recent knee operations and a trampoline at a 2 year olds birthday party. Answer a very sore and 'clicky' knee. Over the weekend I went on a trampoline for possibly the first time in around 4 decades and got my timing a bit wrong. I bounced high in the air and then misjudged the landing and over extended just as the trampoline came
    to meet my leg. It was quite painful at the time and 3 days later it just clicks all the time. I'm hoping I haven't done any damage! As a minimum it’s going to make me very bad at surveillance going forward. It does worry me that the next few years I'm going to be doing more and more silly things to impress my children or their friends or probably their parents! I may as well already book in a surgeon for a few weeks after my first sports day whenever that is!

    Bunds bounced better than me at the weekend after the uncertain German election results with 10 year bunds 4.6bps lower yesterday. In both bonds and equities the core outperformed the peripheral (more below). For today, we have a Yellen speech at 12:45pm ET entitled "inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy" to look forward to and a Macron speech where timing is not ideal given that it was billed as a big Euro integration platform 2 days after Merkel's ability to embrace the idea has taken a set-back.

    Looking at what’s expected from Macron, the press have suggested that the
    speech will include plans for a permanent finance minister for the euro area, a euro
    area budget worth several percentage points of aggregate GDP and a “European
    Monetary Fund”. As if to acknowledge the necessity of progress, German Finance
    Minister Schaeuble recently reciprocated, saying he intends to publish proposals
    for a reinvigorated ESM shortly after the election. We will see if the German election result cautions either. After the dust settles in Germany, the rush to
    integrate may need to slow. Merkel’s room for manoeuvre on conditionality just
    got narrower, meaning progress towards integration will likely be slower and the
    scale of common resources agreed will likely be more limited. For more details,
    please refer to DB’s Mark Wall’s “Reality check for the Macron Pivot”.

    Focusing back now on the German election and its near term implications. As a
    recap, Merkel’s CDU/CSU remained the strongest party, scoring 33% of the votes,
    but it’s also the worst result since 1953 and substantially less than 2013 (41.5%).
    A feasible alliance to govern is the Jamaica coalition between the CDU/CSU, the
    Greens and the FDP. Looking ahead, DB’s Barbara Boettcher believes markets
    will face a period of political uncertainty as coalition building will take time.
    Further, coalition talks are unlikely to turn serious before the elections in Lower
    Saxony on Oct 15. Thus, it is likely that Merkel will be re-elected as chancellor
    only just-in-time for the December EU summit. Overall, the risk of a failure of
    coalition forming is small, in part as German voters demand predictability and
    responsibility in uncertain times.

    This morning in Asia, markets are trading a bit softer. As we type, the Hang Seng
    (-0.03%), ASX 200 (-0.13%) and the Kospi (-0.39%) is down slightly. Elsewhere,
    the Nikkei is down -0.40% as the initial optimism from PM Abe’s stimulus package
    and his call for a snap election has somewhat faded. The new election is likely to
    take place on 22 October and is opportunistic from Abe in an attempt to capitalise
    on his growing approval ratings (now c50% vs. c30% in July).

    Moving on to markets yesterday now. US bourses softened following rising
    geopolitical tensions and weakness in large cap tech stocks. The S&P and Dow
    both closed c0.2% lower following North Korea’s Foreign minister threatening to
    shoot down US warplanes in any airspace given that “the US has declared a war”.
    The Nasdaq fell 0.88% (worse day since mid-August), impacted by increased
    selling in the FANG stocks (down 1% to 4.7% each). Elsewhere, suppliers to Apple
    and Apple’s own shares were down c3% and -0.88% respectively, after Digitimes
    reported Apple has instructed suppliers to slow down delivery of some of the
    component shipments for the production of the iPhone X. Elsewhere, the energy
    sector rose 1.47% (+9.3% for the month) on the back of higher oil prices (more
    below).

    European markets were mixed but little changed, the Stoxx 600 and the Dax rose
    0.18% and 0.02% respectively following Merkel’s election win. Across the region,
    most indices traded lower though, with the FTSE (-0.13%) and CAC (-0.27%) down
    slightly, while the peripherals slightly underperformed (FTSE MIB -0.63%; IBEX
    -0.86%), perhaps a reflection of the rising populist vote in Germany.

    Over in government bonds, there was a similar theme with core bond markets
    firmer but peripherals underperforming. Core bond yields were modestly lower
    in the US (UST 2Y: -1bp;10Y: -3bp) and also across Europe, with Bunds (2Y:
    -3bp; 10Y: -5bp), Gilts (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -2bp) and French OATs (2Y: -3bp; 10Y: -3bp)
    all down 1-5bp across maturities. Conversely, peripherals such as Italian BTPs
    (2Y: +0.3bp; 10Y: unch) and Portuguese (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: +2bp) bond yields were
    slightly higher.

    Turning to currencies, the EURUSD fell 0.86%, partly reflecting the uncertainties
    with Merkel’s new coalition mandate. Elsewhere, the US dollar index gained
    0.52% while Sterling was little changed (-0.28%). In commodities, WTI oil rose 3.08% and Brent jumped 3.80% to $59.02/bbl (the highest close since
    November 2015) after Turkey indicated it may shut down Kurdish oil exports
    that pass through its territory. Precious metal were slightly higher (Gold +1.04%;
    Silver +1.08%) while other base metals are also trading higher this morning, with
    Copper (1.12%), Zinc (+2.87%) and Aluminium (+0.30%) all slightly higher.

    Away from the markets and onto central bankers commentaries. In the US,
    the NY Fed’s Dudley has noted that inflation should eventually pick up and
    “stabilise around the Fed’s 2% goal over the medium term”. Thus in response,
    “the Fed will likely continue to remove monetary accommodation gradually”.
    Elsewhere, the more dovish Chicago Fed’s Evans disagreed and noted that “as
    the FOMC comes to decision points over the coming months, I think we need
    to see clear signs of building wage and price pressures before taking the next
    step in removing accommodation”.

    Over in Europe, ECB’s Draghi talked up the economy, noting “economic
    expansion is now firm and broad based across countries and sectors”, but gave
    little away on the extent and potential approach on the tapering plans. Notably,
    he said “we have to be sensitive about the danger of halting a recovery through
    hasty monetary policy decisions” and that we know “a very substantial degree
    of monetary accommodation is still needed for the upward inflation path to
    materialize.” Elsewhere, ECB’s Executive Board member Coeure indicated that
    the ECB was not “scared” by the prospect of QE exit, but noted that exit would
    have to be carried out carefully.

    Moving onto Brexit, the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier has signalled he is
    unwilling to discuss a trade deal until the UK provides more clarity. He said “what
    is important now is for the UK government to translate the (PM May’s) speech
    into a clear negotiating position”. His counterpart David Davis has reiterated UK
    will honour its financial commitments, but has avoided specifics. We wait and
    see how the Brexit talks evolves.

    With the US congressional leaders expected to release the parameters of a tax
    framework shortly, DB’s Binky Chadha gauges that little or nothing has been
    priced in. He expects the fundamental impact of a cut in corporate tax rate to be
    modest at the aggregate level, but the relative impacts could be large for small
    vs. large companies. For more details
    Finally, the latest ECB CSPP holdings were released yesterday. They bought
    €1.77bn last week which equates to €353mn/day vs. €349mn/day since CSPP
    started. Overall, the CSPP/PSPP ratio of net purchases continues to run well
    above average, at 14.8% last week (vs. 19.2%, 13.6%, 12%, 10.3% and 9.6%
    in previous weeks), which continues to suggest the ECB has tapered credit
    purchases less than government bonds.

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases
    from yesterday. Over in the US, the September Dallas Fed manufacturing
    activity index was above the markets’ expectations at 21.3 (vs. 11.5 expected)
    – the highest reading since February. Within the details, the employment index
    rose 6.4pts to the highest reading since April 2014 and the prices paid index also
    rose to the highest since July 2011. Moving along, the Chicago Fed National
    index was a touch lower at -0.31 (vs. -0.25 expected), although there were positive revisions to the prior month and the three-month average remained close
    to the zero mark, which suggests an economy growing at around trend.

    In Germany, the September IFO business climate index fell slightly to 115.2
    (vs. 116 expected), driven by weaker expectations (107.4 vs. 108 expected)
    and current assessment (123.6 vs. 124.7 expected). However, DB’s Marc
    Schattenberg does not see the dip in the IFO index as a signal of a marked
    slowdown in Germany's growth prospects for Q3, as the average reading of the
    IFO index increased further in Q3 to 115.7 from 114.3 in Q2.

    Looking at the day ahead, in France, there is the September manufacturing and
    business confidence indicators. In the UK, there is finance loans for housing. Over
    in the US, there is the Conference board consumer confidence index, Richmond
    Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as
    new home sales data. Onto other events, there is the BOJ Minutes for its July
    meeting. In the US, the Fed’s Mester, Brainard and Bostic will speak. Further,
    Mrs Yellen will speak on inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy. Back in the
    Europe, UK’s PM May and EU president Tusk will meet to discuss Brexit, while
    France’s Macron will outline his plans to reform the EU.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...en-macron-speeches-stocks-shake-korean-crisis
     
  34. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
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    Frontrunning: September 26

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 26, 2017 8:03 AM


    • Demise of Obamacare Repeal Shows How Far GOP Remains From Goal (BBG)
    • Republican’s Latest Tax Plan Has Little Room to Maneuver (WSJ)
    • Mexico in three-day countdown to search for earthquake survivors (Reuters)
    • Oil near 26-month high as Turkey threatens to choke Kurdish exports (Reuters)
    • North Korea bolsters defenses after flight by U.S. bombers as rhetoric escalates (Reuters)
    • U.S. to Curb Russian Military Flights Over America (WSJ)
    • U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross tells China to guarantee fair treatment for U.S. firms (Reuters)
    • Novogratz Says Bitcoin Is a Bubble, But You Should Own It (BBG)
    • Citi Says Get Ready for an Oil Squeeze (BBG)
    • Alibaba takes control of logistics business, pledges $15 billion to expand network (Reuters)
    • This Is Chaos’: Sweltering Puerto Rico on Day 6 Without Power (BBG)
    • Nestlé Cedes Ground to Loeb but Won’t Budge on L’Oreal (WSJ)
    • Western Digital to seek injunction to block Toshiba's $18 billion chip unit sale (Reuters)
    • Citi Is Bringing Back One of the Most Infamous Bets of the Credit Crisis (BBG)
    • Nafta Negotiators Turn to Thorny Issue Just as Ministers Arrive (BBG)
    • U.S. companies urge EU to refrain from unilateral moves on Web tax (Reuters)
    • BHP, world's largest miner, says 2017 is 'tipping point' for electric cars (Reuters)
    • Ivanka Trump's China Business Ties Are More Secret Than Ever (BBG)
    • The Oil Ghost Towns of Texas (BBG)
    • Brazil Lets In Big Oil Firms After Keeping Them Out for a Decade (WSJ)
    • Banks Lobbying to Stem MiFID’s Spread Spark a U.S. Client Revolt (BBG)
    • Big Investors Want Directors to Stop Sitting On So Many Boards (WSJ)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, is expected to say on Tuesday that his agency may have mishandled a breach of its system for disclosing market-moving news and promise to intensify how it defends itself against hackers. on.wsj.com/2xxjxhL

    - Senate Republicans' latest effort to repeal large parts of the Affordable Care Act this year suffered a likely death blow on Monday, when Senator Susan Collins' declared opposition left it without enough votes to pass. on.wsj.com/2fM6TDV

    - General Electric Co agreed to sell its industrial-solutions business to Switzerland's ABB Ltd for $2.6 billion, a sign that GE's new chief is moving ahead with efforts to streamline the industrial company. on.wsj.com/2wOkpBi


    - U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis arrived in India on Monday on a trip to reinforce a budding U.S.-India defense partnership and to look for ways to work with India to expand ties in Afghanistan and counter Chinese influence in the region. on.wsj.com/2whnype

    - Target Corp said it is raising its minimum wage to $11 an hour starting next month and to $15 an hour within three years, as the retailer competes to fill low-wage jobs in a tighter labor market. on.wsj.com/2hq5k1Z

    - China is considering relaxing rules requiring foreign auto makers to have a local partner, according to people with knowledge of the situation. on.wsj.com/2fnhdlj

    FT

    The European Union rejected British Prime Minister Theresa May’s demand for fast-tracked talks on a Brexit transition, in the fourth round of discussion in Brussels, with the EU’s Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying his mandate excluded discussing a transition until “sufficient progress” had been made on citizen rights, Ireland and a financial settlement.

    Britain’s opposition Labour Party wants to nationalise private finance initiative contracts as part of plans to roll back private sector involvement in UK public services, John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, announced in a speech on Monday to his party’s annual conference.

    Mark Johnson, the former global head of forex cash trading at HSBC Holdings Plc who is on trial in the United States on charges he schemed to front-run a $3.5 billion currency deal, “threw his client under a bus to make more and more money”, prosecutors argued on Monday.

    U.S. ride-hailing company Lyft has been working on a plan to expand internationally and is eyeing cities including London, Toronto and Mexico City, according to a person familiar with the internal discussions, at a time its competitor Uber Technologies Inc fights to overturn a planned ban in London.

    NYT

    - Unilever on Monday announced plans to buy Carver Korea, an Asian skin care specialist, for 2.27 billion euros ($2.69 billion). nyti.ms/2xCgBSK

    - China has largely blocked messaging app WhatsApp, the latest move by Beijing to step up surveillance ahead of a big Communist Party gathering next month. nyti.ms/2ypohVX

    - Swiss engineering firm ABB Ltd said on Monday it would buy General Electric Co's business that provides circuit breakers and other electrical equipment for industry for $2.6 billion. nyti.ms/2xHNeik

    - Uber's chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, apologized in an open letter on Monday for the company's "mistakes," after the transport authority for London said last week that it would not renew the ride-hailing service's license to operate in the city. nyti.ms/2y4Zdan

    - Exxon Mobil Corp announced a program on Monday to reduce emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from its oil and natural gas production and pipeline operations across the United States. nyti.ms/2fmxJ4S

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland has vowed in Parliament that Canada will defend its automotive, resource and dairy sectors from any U.S. assault at the NAFTA bargaining table that could cause job losses for Canadian workers. tgam.ca/2hwO4EE

    ** Alberta's most promising shale prospect could yield billions of barrels of crude, a new study by the National Energy Board and Alberta's Geological Survey says, a finding that points to a substantial resource beyond the province's downtrodden oil sands industry. tgam.ca/2hvLheR

    ** Ottawa's proposed tax changes for private corporations have created a rift in Canada's legal community and are refueling a debate over whether lawyers are public servants, based on a professional oath, regardless of what type of law they practice. tgam.ca/2hwzf58

    NATIONAL POST

    ** As Bombardier Inc braces for a preliminary ruling in a countervailing duty investigation that could see nearly 80 percent duties slapped on U.S.-bound C Series jets, the Montreal-based company is facing another — and potentially significant — threat to its transportation business. bit.ly/2hvcBda

    ** Alibaba Group Holding Ltd founder Jack Ma encouraged Canadian entrepreneurs to consider the possibilities presented by the Chinese market, rather than focusing on the difficulties as he made his pitch for why small businesses should sign on to the e-commerce platform. bit.ly/2hxfhqG

    ** Ontario's environment ministry investigators probing the international Volkswagen emissions scandal accuse officials with the German automobile company of not fully cooperating in their investigation. bit.ly/2hxg0Iq

    Britain

    The European Union rejected British Prime Minister Theresa May’s demand for fast-tracked talks on a Brexit transition, in the fourth round of discussion in Brussels, with the EU’s Brexit chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying his mandate excluded discussing a transition until “sufficient progress” had been made on citizen rights, Ireland and a financial settlement.

    Britain’s opposition Labour Party wants to nationalise private finance initiative contracts as part of plans to roll back private sector involvement in UK public services, John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, announced in a speech on Monday to his party’s annual conference.

    Mark Johnson, the former global head of forex cash trading at HSBC Holdings Plc who is on trial in the United States on charges he schemed to front-run a $3.5 billion currency deal, “threw his client under a bus to make more and more money”, prosecutors argued on Monday.

    U.S. ride-hailing company Lyft has been working on a plan to expand internationally and is eyeing cities including London, Toronto and Mexico City, according to a person familiar with the internal discussions, at a time its competitor Uber Technologies Inc fights to overturn a planned ban in London.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-26/frontrunning-september-26
     
  35. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    DB - Opening Bell: 9.26.17
    http://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/opening-bell-9-26-17-2/

    Naked Capitalism Links 09/26
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/09/links-92617.html

    SA - Market News Live Feed 09/26
    https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

    TRB - Hot Links: Oil Squeeze 09/26
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/09/26/hot-links-oil-squeeze/

    CWS - Morning News: September 26, 2017
    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/09/morning-news-september-26-2017.html

    MtM - Evolving Thoughts on Inflation 09/26
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/evolving-thoughts-on-inflation.html

    SA - Wall Street Breakfast: A Barrage Of Fedspeak 06/26
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109402-wall-street-breakfast-barrage-fedspeak

    RR - Puerto Rico's Desperation and Predicting Amazon's Future 09/26
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...-s-desperation-and-predicting-amazon-s-future

    MtM - Weekend Election and North Korea Rhetoric Helps Greenback Remain Firm 09/26
    http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2017/09/weekend-election-and-north-korea.html
     
  36. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  37. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Erase Yesterday’s Advance
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
    Gold saw slight gains at $1313.40 in Asia before it fell back to $1293.50 in early afternoon New York trade and then bounced back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 1.11%. Silver slipped to as low as $16.777 and ended with a loss of 1.81%.
     
  38. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    World Reaching Gold Peak Production: Price May Soon Reach $1400
    SalivateMetal



    Published on Sep 26, 2017
     
  39. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Dollar Surges, Bonds Dump Ahead Of Trump Tax Plan

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 27, 2017 6:50 AM


    S&P futures are set for a higher open (+ 0.1%) despite the expected hit to the Dow from Nike which is down over 3% on unexpectedly poor revenue growth, as European stocks gain while Asian shares dropped. Like yesterday when the big story was the jump in the USD ahead of Yellen's (rather hawkish) speech, so today the greenback's levitation has continued, this time propelled by today's unveiling of Trump's tax plan.

    On the eve of its unveiling, Trump said lawmakers should expect a “very, very powerful document” that would cut taxes “tremendously” for the middle class. If passed, the plan would be Trump’s first significant legislative win since taking office in January. ”The idea that Trump could be reaching across the aisle, talking about tax cuts to middle and low income households, if it comes to pass, we are talking a pretty material fiscal boost to the U.S. economy. This sort of easy fiscal policy is why the markets are reacting the way they have,” said Mark Dowding, co-head of investment grade at BlueBay Asset Management.

    Based on leaks to date, what we know is that Trump will unveil a 35% individual tax rate (although Congress will decide whether to create a higher bracket), and the rate on corporations will be set at 20%, down from the current 35%, while the standard deduction will double. Trump’s “basic idea about tax reform should lead to higher Treasury yields,” supportive of the dollar, said Brown Brothers Harriman fx strategist Masashi Murata." He was right: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to the highest level since Aug. 18 and Treasury yields jumped to the highest in two months. Broad dollar strength was fueled by Janet Yellen’s hawkish tone in which she cautioned against tightening "too gradually" which sent December rate hike odds to 70%...


    [​IMG]

    ... and expectations for U.S. tax reforms dominated currency trends Wednesday, with Asia's emerging-market currencies falling while the yen took the biggest hit among peers. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also declined, while the euro extended losses below $1.18, as the pound briefly fell below $1.34 amid lingering Brexit uncertainties.

    “Yellen’s comments gave more certainty about another rate hike by the end of the year,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Daniel Lenz. “Further details of Trump’s tax plans and whether this proceeds smoothly will be of interest -- it should be a boost to the economy and mean a generally higher bond yield environment.”

    Stocks in Europe climbed, with all major country benchmarks in the green, helped by the morning declines in the EUR and GBP against the USD. Cyclical sectors that had surged on the prospect of “Trumpflation” resulting from the president’s pro-growth campaign pledges were the day’s top gainers, with miners up 0.9 percent. Financials outperformed, as Standard Charted and RBS have received broker upgrades, with the sector further benefiting from the increased chance of a December move from the FOMC.

    Asian equity markets were mostly lower amid a lack of catalysts as the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.1 percent. The ASX 200 (-0.1%) was negative amid weakness seen in commodity stocks and gold miners after the precious metal slipped below USD 1300/oz, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) failed to benefit from a weaker currency and was pressured on mass ex-dividends with over 120 stocks in Nikkei 225 and over 1000 in the TOPIX trading ex-dividend today. Chinese markets outperformed their peers with Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.05%) kept afloat after firmer Chinese Industrial Profit growt.

    China’s central bank set its daily currency fixing stronger than expected on Wednesday, a move interpreted by traders as a show of support for the yuan before the start of a week-long holiday. As a result, the onshore yuan strengthened for the first time in three sessions, although the offshore Yuan since pared all gains and was trading at 6.64 at last check. China's seven-day repo rate dropped 3bps to 3.12%; while overnight funding cost rises 1bp to 2.90%. In offshore markets,the overnight CNH Hibor rose 38bps to 2.21% while the HKD strengthend 0.03% to 7.8096 per dollar, paring earlier gain of as much as 0.09%.

    Meanwhile, Treasury 10-year yields jumped to an eight-week peak, while 2-year hit highest since 2008, driving up those on bunds and gilts as well. Ten-year TSY yields climbed seven basis points to an eight-week high of 2.30 percent. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields touched their highest since 2008 after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday it would be “imprudent” to keep rates on hold until U.S. inflation hit 2 percent. Bunds dropped from the open as the Treasury sell-off, which started late on Teusday on reports of Trump tax plan, gained momentum with various factors contributing, before 10y yields stalled just shy of 2.30%. According to Bloomberg, block sellers were seen in bund futures add pressure as stops are run. Weakness in JGBs added to the rates selling pressure.

    WTI crude slid a second day, but remained close to $52 a barrel after data showed U.S. stockpiles dwindled last week. Safe havens including gold, the yen and the Swiss franc extended declines as North Korea dropped off the radar for the time being. Copper rose for the first day in six as traders closed positions before the quarter-end and a holiday in China. The industrial metal rose 1.1 percent to $6,485 a ton. “You see not only that demand in China is doing well, but also that in the longer term demand will increase even more from other sectors, like the electric vehicle industry. At this stage the fundamentals are very supportive of stronger prices,” ABN Amro analyst Casper Burgering said.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,499.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 385.10
    • MSCI Asia down 0.4% to 160.55
    • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.02% to 528.70
    • Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,267.05
    • Topix down 0.5% to 1,664.43
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,642.43
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.05% to 3,345.27
    • Sensex down 0.7% to 31,367.47
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,664.28
    • Kospi down 0.07% to 2,372.57
    • German 10Y yield rose 4.9 bps to 0.457%
    • Euro down 0.5% to $1.1735
    • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.31/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.83%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.617%
    • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.31/bbl
    • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,290.95
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 93.48
    Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk
    • European equities trade marginally positive, as financials out-perform
    • The greenback continues to gain ground against its major pairs, with pricing now at 80% for December
    • Looking ahead, highlights include US durables, Pending Home Sales, DoE, RBNZ rate decision, President Trump on Tax and further central bank speak
    Top Overnight News
    • President Donald Trump and Republican leaders will launch an urgent effort to get a major legislative win this year, announcing a long-awaited tax plan that will immediately set off a fight over how much top earners should pay
    • Siemens AG and Alstom SA agreed to merge their rail businesses in a deal that brings together former arch-rivals from Germany and France to create a European transportation giant aimed at countering competition from China
    • The U.S. Commerce Department slapped import duties of 220 percent on the C Series plane Tuesday, citing improper subsidies after a complaint by Boeing Co.The preliminary determination threatens to upend Bombardier’s planned deliveries next year to Delta Air Lines Inc., which ordered at least 75 jets with a list value of more than $5 billion
    • Volkswagen AG’s Scania unit was fined 880.5 million euros ($1.03 billion) by the European Union for price-fixing, a year after other members of a truck cartel reached a record settlement with regulators
    • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said gradually raising interest rates is the most appropriate policy approach amid higher uncertainty about inflation, reinforcing the U.S. central bank’s forecast for another hike this year
    • China’s central bank set its daily currency fixing stronger than expected on Wednesday, a move interpreted by traders as a show of support for the yuan before the start of a week-long holiday
    • The Brexit bill may have just gotten even bigger. As the U.K. and EU haggle over the size of Britain’s exit payment, documents show pension costs for EU officials rose more than 5% in 2016. Higher pension costs will increase what the EU thinks the U.K. should pay
    • Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike launched a new national party, giving her less than a month to pull together a political force capable of repeating local election victories over PM Shinzo Abe on the national stage
    • Standard Chartered, CaixaBank Lead Europe Banks Rally on Yellen
    • Morneau Won’t Budge on Deficits Despite Canada’s Red-Hot Growth
    • Manafort’s Offer to Russian Is Said to Be Tied to Disputed Deal
    • Nike Declines After Athletic Giant Gives Bleak Outlook for U.S.
    • Micron Sees More Good Times Ahead in Memory Chip Market
    • Chip Equipment Stocks May Move After ‘Big’ Micron Capex Forecast
    • Cintas FY Revenue View Midpoint Beats Est.; Shares Rise 4%
    • Gas Flow From Tamar Offshore Reserve Restarted
    • Alstom, Siemens Forget High-Speed-Rail Feud Amid Asian Onslaught
    Asia markets were mixed amid a lack of catalysts and after similar indecisiveness on Wall St. where the DJIA posted a 4th consecutive loss and the Nasdaq outperformed as tech rebounded from its worst performance in over a month. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was negative amid weakness seen in commodity stocks and gold miners after the precious metal slipped below USD 1300/oz, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) failed to benefit from a weaker currency and was pressured on mass ex-dividends with over 120 stocks in Nikkei 225 and over 1000 in the TOPIX trading ex-dividend today. Chinese markets outperformed their peers with Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.05%) kept afloat after firmer Chinese Industrial Profit growth, although upside was limited amid the absence of open market operations by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued and tracked the losses in USTs, as a risk averse tone in Japan and BoJ Rinban operation for JPY 880bln of JGBs failed to inspire demand. Chinese Industrial Profits (Aug) Y/Y 24.0% (Prev. 16.5%). PBoC refrained from open markets operations today. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6192 (Prev. 6.6076)

    Top Asian News
    • Singapore Home Prices Have Bottomed, Hong Kong ‘Crazy,’ BNP Says
    • No Volatility Here: How Taiwan’s Currency Became World’s Dullest
    • The Mystery of the $1.8 Billion Korean Bond Selloff
    • China Iron Rises From June-Low as Mills Seek Supply Before Break
    • Indonesia Supreme Court Rejects Semen Indonesia’s Review Request
    European equities trade in marginal positive territory with US futures pointing to a recovery over the pond, while European bourses have been helped by the morning struggles for EUR & GBP. Financials out-perform, as Standard Charted and RBS have received broker upgrades, with the sector further benefiting from the increased chance of a December move from the FOMC. Fixed income markets struggled overnight, as the pricing of tightening from the Fed was evident. Bunds have found some support around the 161.16 level, although any further hawkish follow-up from today’s Fed speakers could act as a further drag on prices. In the periphery, spreads are modestly tighter, although price action could become increasingly focused on the fallout of the upcoming Catalonian independence referendum. The headline issuance will come from the US today, with 2y FRN and 5y note auctions expected.

    Top European News
    • Cryptocurrency Derivatives? You Bet. This Trader Has 295% Return
    • Sabadell, CaixaBank Share Rise as Catalan Concerns Subside
    • Carillion Surges on M&A Speculation, Short Interest Elevated
    • Italian Manufacturing Confidence Rises to Highest in 10 Years
    • Cerberus’s Bawag Plans the First Austrian Bank IPO in 12 Years
    In currencies, a bullish greenback has dictated FX price action following Yellen’s hawkish skew, stretched into early European trade, as some key levels have been broken. USD/JPY trades through September’s highs, finding some resistance curtesy of a 2017 trendline, alongside the touted 112.70 – 113.00 range, with heavy stops called around these levels. EUR/USD has also suffered, now in August’s range looking back towards 1.17. The NZ rate decision will be expected on the NY closing bell, with expectations on the RBNZ to remain on hold. The bank may reiterate comments that its monetary policy is to remain accommodative for a considerable time. Kiwi trade remains with concern of the election results, as a coalition is yet to be formed and New Zealand’s kingmaker party has stated that they will not decide on a partner before Oct. 7. Canadian Finance Minister Morneau said he sees higher rates ahead given where the economy is at but noted rates are still historically low, while he added the Canadian economy can do well with the currency at current levels.

    In commodities, WTI crude futures have seen a modest pullback this morning from the advances seen in the wake of last night’s API draw with sentiment turning this morning amid reports Nigeria's NNPC expects their force majeure on Bonny Light to be lifted 'very soon'. Precious metals have weakened, as money moves from risk off flow. Gold has broken through the month’s lows, through 1288.00 and the previous heavy resistance seen through the year. Russian energy minister Novak says will examine extending OPEC oil output pact beyond March if makes sense, according to Die Presse.

    Looking at the day ahead, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. Onto other events, we have three more Fed speakers, including: Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren. Further, President Trump will speak at Indiana on tax reform. Elsewhere, France’s finance minister is due to present the 2018 budget and outlook for the next 5 years.

    US Event calendar:
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -9.7%
    • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.0%, prior -6.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%
    • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 1.2%
    • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. -0.5%, prior -0.8%; NSA YoY, est. -0.5%, prior -0.5%
    Fed speakers:
    • 9:15am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Higher Education Event
    • 1:30pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy
    • 2pm: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Minority Banker Forum
    • 7pm: Fed’s Rosengren to Speak to Money Marketeers in New York
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap.

    The main things to discuss today are Yellen and Macron’s speeches yesterday and the fact that we should get a bit more info about the next steps towards any hopes of Trump’s tax plans surfacing.

    Firstly, Mrs Yellen’s speech on inflation and monetary policy had a few mixed messages, but the bond markets seemed to take a slightly hawkish bias from it. Yellen repeated her view that the current low inflation likely reflects many factors, some of which are temporary and some may be structural such as underlying changes in firms and consumer behaviour as well as the growing importance of global supply chains and online shopping. Notably, she suggested the Fed “may have misjudged the strength of the labour market, the degree to which longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with our inflation objectives”. In terms of what this means for rates, she cautioned the Fed “should be wary of wary of moving too gradually”, in part given the possibility that the labour market could overheat and create inflationary problems down the track. Conversely, “persistently easy monetary policy might also eventually lead to increased leverage and other developments”. For these reasons, she noted that “it would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%”. Nonetheless, she conceded the Fed will stay flexible, noting we “must be ready to adjust our assessment of economic conditions and outlook when new data warrant it”. The probability of a December rate hike (per Bloomberg) has now increased 3.4ppt to 66.6%.

    Staying in the US, President Trump is expected to speak at Indiana today (5pm local time / EDT) on tax reforms, although it’s unclear what level of details will emerge. Bloomberg reports the tax framework could include: 1) cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% (from 35% existing) with businesses allowed to immediately write off their capex for five years, 2) cut the top individual tax rate to 35% (from 39.6% existing), with other tax brackets at 12% and 25%, 3) for companies looking to repatriate profits back to US, there will be a one-time tax, but the rate is unclear and 4) for pass-through entities (eg: partnerships and limited liability companies), their tax rate will be capped at 25%. We will wait and see the exact details, although a reminder that DB’s Brett Ryan’s “A primer on tax reform and the upcoming budget debate”, showed that getting tax reforms implemented will not be easy.

    Moving on now to Macron’s vision for a “profound transformation” of the EU. At a high level, he said “Europe needs to be an economic and monetary power” that could rival China and US and that the “Europe we know (today) is too weak, too slow, too ineffective”. Further, time was running out to counter the rise of far-right nationalism and “give Europe back to its citizens”. In his one hour and 40 minutes speech, he has outlined a range of proposals, including: the need for a common EU budget and finance minister, common EU policies on defence, asylum and corporate tax rates, as well as the formation of European universities, a digital protection agency, border police, civil protection force as well as a common military intervention force. Notably, Macron has acknowledged that his vision will require support from Mrs Merkel, which will be more challenging post the election result.

    Thus far, responses have been somewhat mixed. The EC President Juncker said “Europe requires courage” and “we now need a closely united, stronger and democratic Europe” and Germany’s Greens co-leader Cem Oezdemir said it was a ‘strong speech” and “now need close collaboration with Paris”. On the flip side, Hans Michelbach (a member of Merkel’s parliamentary caucus) said Macron’s proposals were “unsuited to moving Europe forward”. Elsewhere, Czech’s ANO party leader Andrej Babis said “all these proposals…all of this further integration…Juncker and Macron should think of why Brexit happened”.

    Moving on to another hot topic at the moment, overnight, President Trump has reiterated that “we’re totally prepared for…military option (on North Korea)… but (it’s) not a preferred option”. Elsewhere in the Asia session China’s August industrial profits grew 24% yoy (vs. 16.5% previous) – the most in four years, with statistics officials attributing the growth to faster producer price inflation and lower costs. Asian markets are trading a bit mixed, as we type, the Nikkei (-0.29%) and ASX 200 (-0.34%) are down slightly, the Kospi is broadly flat, while the Hang Seng (+0.50%) and CSI 300 (+0.07%) is marginally higher.

    Turning to market performance yesterday now. US bourses were little changed with the S&P (+0.01%) and Nasdaq (+0.15%) up slightly, while the Dow dipped 0.05%. Within the S&P, tech stocks partly recovered (+0.40%) from yesterday’s sell off. Elsewhere, the real estate and consumer staples sector advanced slightly, but other sectors were all in the red. European markets were mixed and also little changed, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.03%) and DAX (+0.08%) marginally higher, while the FTSE 100 dipped 0.21%.

    Over in government bonds, core bond yields were slightly higher while peripherals outperformed, leading to a small reversal of Monday’s trend. At the 10y part of the curve, core bond yields were c1bp higher (UST +1.6bp, Bunds +0.8bp, OATs +0.6bp) but changes at the 2y maturities were mixed but little changed. Elsewhere, peripherals have outperformed at the 10y part of the curve, with Portugal (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -4bp) and Spanish (2Y: unch; 10Y: -2bp) bond yields down modestly.

    Turning to currencies, the EURUSD weakened 0.46% and is now down c2% from earlier in the month. The US dollar index strengthened 0.34% following Yellen’s speech, while GBPUSD was broadly flat. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.65% after stronger gains on the day before following reports that Turkey may restrict Kurdish oil exports that passes through its territory. Elsewhere, precious metals were modestly lower (Gold -1.28%; Silver -2.12%), while other base metals are mixed but little changed this morning (Copper -0.08%; Aluminium -0.15%; Zinc +0.47%).

    Away from markets now and onto Brexit. The EC President Donald Tusk met with UK PM Theresa May yesterday and noted that there is “not sufficient progress yet” on Brexit talks and that PM May’s concessions doesn’t go far enough, noting the “philosophy of having a cake and eating it is finally coming to an end”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that sources familiar to the Irish government’s preparation for Brexit expect the post Brexit transition period to extend beyond two years (flagged by PM May) to as much as five.

    Over in the US, final efforts to repeal Obamacare has effectively ceased for now with Senator Collins of Maine also opposing the change. Co-sponsors for the health bill Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham said “we don’t have the votes (for a repeal)” but remained hopeful, noting “we’re coming back to this after taxes (reform).”

    Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September was above markets’ expectations at 19 (vs. 13 expected) and now back at its high for the year with improvements in both the shipments and new orders index. The Conference board consumer confidence index was a touch lower than expected at 119.8 (vs. 120), although the weakness is in the context of a downward revision (-2.5pt) to the prior month’s reading. Elsewhere, new home sales fell 3.4% mom in August (560k vs. 585k expected), with much of the decline due to lower building in South, likely reflecting some impacts from Hurricane Harvey. Notably, house prices as per the CoreLogic house price index for 20 key cities have slightly beat at 5.8% yoy (vs. 5.7% expected).

    In France, the September business confidence (109 vs. 110 expected) and manufacturing confidence (110 vs. 110 expected) was broadly in line and remains at a six-year high. Elsewhere, UK’s August finance loans for housing came in at GBP$41.8bln (vs. GBP$41.7bln).

    Looking at the day ahead, Italy’s July industrial orders and confidence indicators on manufacturing, consumer and economic sentiment will be due this morning. Then France’s consumer confidence and the Eurozone’s M3 money supply data are also due. Over in the US, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. Onto other events, we have three more Fed speakers, including: Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren. Further, President Trump will speak at Indiana on tax reform. Elsewhere, France’s finance minister is due to present the 2018 budget and outlook for the next 5 years.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-27/dollar-surges-bonds-dump-ahead-trump-tax-plan
     
  40. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    by Tyler Durden
    Sep 27, 2017 7:53 AM

    • Trump Will Let Congress Decide on Tax Rate for Top Earners (BBG)
    • Conservative firebrand defeats Trump pick in Alabama primary for U.S. Senate (Reuters)
    • U.S. Commerce Secretary says market access, protectionism top China issues (Reuters)
    • U.S. slaps steep duties on Bombardier jets after Boeing complaint (Reuters)
    • Dismayed Britain chides Boeing over Bombardier ruling (Reuters)
    • Cryptocurrency Derivatives? You Bet. This Trader Has 295% Return (BBG)
    • Manafort’s Offer to Russian Oligarch Was Tied to Disputed Deal (BBG)
    • There’s One North Korea Taboo China’s Leaders Won’t Talk About (BBG)
    • Mattis arrives in Afghanistan as rockets hit Kabul airport (Reuters)
    • Falling prices, borrowing binge haunt Midwest 'go-go farmers' (Reuters)
    • Canada Says It’s No Safe Haven for Immigrants Losing U.S. Protection (WSJ)
    • Ford and Lyft Sign Driverless-Car Agreement (WSJ)
    • Trump’s Made-in-America Car Campaign Hasn’t Spurred Investment (BBG)
    • Uber defends business model at UK tribunal on worker rights (Reuters)
    • Alstom, Siemens Announce Merger to Create European Train Giant (Reuters)
    • PepsiCo Lawyer’s Exit Is Focus of SEC Probe (WSJ)
    • Greek central bank dismisses Anonymous hacking claim (Reuters)
    • Amazon says Google has pulled YouTube from Echo Show device in tech face-off (Reuters)
    • Thai former PM Yingluck gets five-year jail term for negligence (Reuters)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - U.S. Senators criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission's new leader, Jay Clayton, at a hearing on Tuesday for how the agency handled a 2016 breach of its cornerstone system for storing market-moving information. on.wsj.com/2fP9zjY

    - Equifax Inc moved to take concrete action over its massive hack ahead of congressional hearings next week, announcing on Tuesday that Chairman and Chief Executive Richard Smith would step aside. on.wsj.com/2xDbnWS

    - An investor group including U.S. private-equity firm TPG Capital is looking to sell its controlling stake in one of Indonesia's oldest finance companies, BFI Finance Indonesia , in a deal that could value the company at about $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2xzMvgX

    - Republicans are reconsidering their plans to cut individual income tax rates for the highest-earning households to 35 percent, as they gear up to release a blueprint on Wednesday, according to people familiar with the discussions. on.wsj.com/2xymDBW

    - Twitter Inc on Tuesday said it would begin testing a new limit of 280 characters, double its current limit, as a concession to users who have been clamoring for changes to the short-messaging service. on.wsj.com/2wSc8w9

    - Uber Technologies Inc said it may cease operations in the Canadian province of Quebec in protest of more stringent training rules for drivers there. on.wsj.com/2frqR6qa

    FT

    Uber Technologies Inc has hired headhunters to look for a new UK chairman who can help repair its relations with regulators in one of its top European markets, according to a person close to the company.

    The head of UBS Group AG’s investment bank, Andrea Orcel, called for quick agreement on a Brexit transition deal and warned that if such a decision is not agreed by March, there will be a “significant” shift out of UK.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party voted to bring disciplinary measures against any members found to be anti-Semitic, but activists said more action was needed to show that the party is serious about confronting the problem.

    European Council President Donald Tusk said that Britain has finally abandoned its “have cake and eat it” strategy for Brexit negotiations, although he warned that more work had to be done to produce a breakthrough in talks.

    NYT

    - Twitter Inc said on Tuesday that it would test extending the text limit of a post on its service to 280 characters, to eliminate what it viewed as constraints that kept people from tweeting more frequently. nyti.ms/2wjZNge

    - German industrial giant Siemens AG plans to merge its rail business with the French train equipment maker Alstom SA, the companies said Tuesday. nyti.ms/2wTTFzo

    - Uber Technologies Inc said it would stop service in Montreal and the Quebec province next month rather than accept new government rules, the second setback in a week for the ride-hailing service's international operations. nyti.ms/2xvKxAz

    - Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said the U.S. Fed plans to keep raising its benchmark interest rate despite the weakness of inflation. nyti.ms/2wVoVt3


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Canadian regulatory policies effectively subsidize the world's largest digital companies by exempting them from taxes and spending requirements imposed on Canadian broadcasters, Quebecor Inc Chief Executive Pierre-Karl Péladeau says. tgam.ca/2hwCP2M

    ** WestJet Airlines Ltd said its new discount carrier, Swoop, will start taking bookings in February and begin flying near the end of June, 2018. tgam.ca/2hwKRZB

    ** The U.S. government has imposed duties of nearly 220 percent on imports of Bombardier Inc's C Series planes into the United States, a move that threatens to exacerbate trade tensions between the two countries and undermine sales prospects for the Canadian company's most important aircraft. tgam.ca/2hviaw6

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Twitter Inc will double its strict size limit on tweets to 280 characters from 140 characters for a small percent of users in every language but Japanese, Chinese and Korean, a Twitter Canada spokesperson confirmed Tuesday. bit.ly/2hwApRA

    ** Middle-class families in Canada are paying higher income taxes compared to a few years ago, despite claims by Ottawa that it has eased the tax burden on this income group, according to a new report by Vancouver-based think-tank, The Fraser Institute. bit.ly/2hwo0NA

    ** The Ontario government plans to unveil legislation Wednesday that would force drug companies and other businesses to publicly divulge the payments they make to health professionals, answering long-standing complaints about industry influence on the medical profession. bit.ly/2hvYb0h


    Britain

    The Times

    The finance director of Northgate Plc has been sacked after he was convicted of assault. Northgate said in a statement that Paddy Gallagher, 54, had been "summarily dismissed due to his conviction for the summary offence of common assault." bit.ly/2wV0r3j

    The ousted boss of Airbus UK has landed at British aerospace company Cobham Plc. Paul Kahn was forced out of the Franco-German planemaker in the summer after less than three years in the job in a barely disguised falling out over Brexit and the future of Airbus's substantial interests in the United Kingdom. bit.ly/2fqVtoD

    The Guardian

    The former boss and chief operating officer of Afren, a London-listed oil and gas exploration business, are to be charged with criminal offences in relation to an alleged 45 million euros ($53.05 million) fraud that led to the collapse of the 2 billion euro company. bit.ly/2wka3Vw

    The chief executive of embattled credit agency Equifax Inc announced his retirement on Tuesday, in the wake of a massive data breach that exposed the personal information of 143 million people. bit.ly/2huDVvX

    The Telegraph

    British Steel has emerged from UK's steel crisis with its first international acquisition, less than 18 months after Tata Steel abandoned the troubled business. bit.ly/2xuXuux

    Uber Technologies Inc is looking to hire a UK chairman, just a week after being stripped of its licence to operate in London and as arch-rival Lyft eyes a move into the market. bit.ly/2xKyhMs

    Sky News

    Thousands of jobs could be at risk in Northern Ireland after a U.S. adjudication against the aircraft manufacturer Bombardier Inc. bit.ly/2fPvlV1

    Sky News has learnt that a committee established by the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association will follow up an earlier report by warning that the current system with thousands of smaller defined benefit schemes operating independently is "placing the retirement savings of millions...at risk". bit.ly/2wj9OKE

    The Independent

    A London-based female Uber driver has issued sex discrimination proceedings against the ride-sharing company Uber Technologies Inc, claiming it unfairly disadvantages women who work for the group. ind.pn/2wSE5E7

    Dyson has confirmed it will launch a battery-powered electric car in 2020. The vacuum cleaner company, which will spend 2 billion euros on the project, says its vehicles will be "radical and different". ind.pn/2wjePCJ

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-27/frontrunning-september-27
     

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