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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.



  1. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Eh hehehe
     
  2. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Posted this a while back when nya was peaking, catching down to hyg now ;)

    [​IMG]
     
  3. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Crude breakdown and retest

    [​IMG]
     
  4. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    EURUSD, wonder what's going to happen to gold when it breaksdown?

    [​IMG]
     
  5. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Don't let the Bass Turds bring you down... and do stay and play in the lunatic fringe for a bit, things are starting to get there...
     
  6. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Stocks Bear market activated, why wait for 20% to call it for what it is?
     
  7. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Next stop 23200...?


    Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 7.32.59 AM.png
     
  8. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Updated dollar, one year lag on gold chart

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Derivatives...?


    First Victim Announced: A $300M VIX Fund Goes Poof


    Bloomberg reports Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poison Pill.

    "The Cboe Volatility Index’s biggest rally ever is raising thorny questions about the future of exchange-traded products tied to the gauge.

    An ETP meant to mirror moves in the front of the VIX’s futures curve plunged more than 75 percent in after-hours trading following an 80 percent spike in contracts that comprise its underlying index during the trading day, potentially putting in play triggers that would enable the fund’s owners to liquidate it to avoid losses.

    The surge in volatility has already claimed one victim: Nomura Europe Finance announced the early redemption of its Next Notes S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Inverse Daily Excess Return Index ETN, which had 32.4 billion yen (approximately $300 million) in assets.

    Trading was halted in VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN, which trades under XIV, according to a market statement Tuesday.

    “If they lose more than 80 percent of their value, the sponsor has the right to liquidate and they should, or they take on the risk. Thus if Bloomberg’s indicative value is correct, they are due to be liquidated,” Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said.

    The fund, the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN, has been wildly popular in the past year as volatility on American equity markets sank to historic lows, delivering an eye-popping return of more than 187 percent last year. It pulled in nearly $1 billion in just the first five weeks of this year, while the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (ticker XIV) has added almost $750 million over the same time frame.
    The S&P futures put in a wild ride this evening with multiple swings in both directions. The S&P is up 100 points from the low, in the green by 10 points as I type at 5:00 AM Central. The VIX is near 44.

    Expect more announcements soon.

    Mike "Mish" Shedlock

     
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  10. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Hey louky, couple of questions... First the dollar...

    The dollar , using the USD index, has been moving down ever since you said it would. Lately we've seen a little tiny bit of strength in the USD with this downdraft in stocks. I like following your USD predictions and the charts, but have you noticed the dollar vs. the RMB?

    Since China is the last remaining creditor nation on the planet, has the largest economy, by far the most manufacturing, the largest middle class (by numbers, not by %), mines more gold and probably holds more gold than any other CB - shouldn't we be taking a look at the dollar vs. RMB more often than using the USD index? Or at least both in tandem?

    It seems to me China's currency was getting stronger also when the USD was sliding and of late it seems it's remaining strong despite the USD's minor strength of late. Shouldn't that tell us something?

    Can you tell us what you mean by this? Are you saying that we hit-20% from the high soon?

    I'm not sure if that level of pull back is coming. I pulled off my short term shorts this morning. What about the comments you posted to me a few days back about "the risk is being out of the market?" Are you reversing course and that comment no longer applies?
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  11. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    How's that gdx wedge looking?

    [​IMG]
     
  12. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Those were gary's comments, i even posted the video.

    Like i posted, "have to give him credit for getting vertical phase 100% correct since last summer"
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  13. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  14. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Sure, I understand. But since you repeated his video, it made me think you were in agreement. Do you believe he is right and this is the big dip that should be bought?

    I'm asking your opinion, and doing that because I think you're actually better at this than he is.
     
  15. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Green market...Turn around Tuesday ;)

    Based on bear market weekly pattern, i say they trapped some more folks. Should get flat to slightly green open and then more bleeding. My guess
     
  16. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Lots of shake outs, every which way but loose. Tough market to play at the moment methinks.
     
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  17. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Yep, cash is best position
     
  18. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    actually i posted it even further back, beware of the ovals

     
  19. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'm not a buyer here. I think they are holding the tape, while selling to "you" :)
     
  20. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It's kind of a running joke back further in the thread with me posting gary's videos and saying "too tha moon" when people where calling tops, but he kept being right. Time will tell :)

    "who knows"

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  21. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Armstrong says bull trend resumes in May, fwiw
     
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  22. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    T\A signals potential and probability, it always needs confirming price action. It's detractors get hung up on prediction which is not possible, but what is possible is the shortening of the odds such that you win more than enough to make it work.

    The other thing that most people don't get is the discounting mechanism of the market. Meaning the more popular any market analysis becomes, be it FA or TA or even HFT the less it works as the "knowledge" gets discounted by price. If we all believe at top is coming it will fail to materialize as we collectively negate it by selling early drawing in more buyers. Fading general net chatter seems to be one of the more reliable methods, seems to be a little too much crash talk ATM FWIW!

    In the end risk control and money management is king, analysis is down to your time frame and temperament... nothing is absolutely correct or completely wrong. Dart board selection with good risk control has beaten gurus of all stripes.
     
  23. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    That is some profound chit, Z.

    It's almost like you have to find a tree that stands outside the thicket. If it bears fruit and multiplies you have to move on to another wilderness to sow, before becoming strangled anew. I guess it is all about the search for fresh, fertile ground.
     
  24. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Chinese whispers, the act of passing the message corrupts it?! Classic T/A became complete mess with the advent of the internet, cheap charting software and discount brokers. In the late 90's TA's popularity ensured every classic signal was messed up in some fashion, you had to trade where only the pros traded or you had to develop new approaches (I did) either that or you had to dig up some arcane long abandoned methods... like Gann. Anyway.. yes, it is a mobile feast and sometimes things stop working as market conditions and participants change in some form or fashion.

    Its good to know what you are doing and be lonely with it... that is where the money is.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  25. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  26. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    louky, how does that A,B,C,D a,b,c,d pattern program fit with the above chart?
     
  27. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    Many miners are currently on support levels. If we get a rally, I would expect it starting soon
     
  28. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I recall people thought break out

    [​IMG]
     
  29. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    just best guess for now using fibs, until they hit ;)
     
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  30. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  31. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Dolla bill taking souls already

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Green color only mean one thing in a bear market....

    ...they just trapped you



    [​IMG]
     
  33. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Been posting bullish outlook, here's Bear view o_O

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    As stated, this is bear view.......

    but do you see it (their target)? :D

     
  35. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    [​IMG]
     
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  36. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    [​IMG]
     
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  37. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    Quick comparison of gold and GDX. Gold has barely moved, and hasn't even reached firm support at 1300. The miners are taking it on the chin, as if gold has already broken 1300.
     

    Attached Files:

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  38. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    AUY has almost reached its 50 DMA. Potential bounce?
    FCX has hit its 50DMA and is oversold. But will it rally?
     

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  39. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Usually when miners stop breaking down ahead of gold, it's a temporary bottom. So i agree, bounce likely.

    Additionally, we're at a point where gold and $ can move up together since 1305/1296 are incoming and cows should defend the area .
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  40. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Trump upset about manipulation, he's really gonna be butt hurt soon when it's below the level he was elected at

    [​IMG]
     

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