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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.



  1. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Yes. Last few times RSI has gotten buried into the mid twenties we have seen nice short term rebounds:

    screenshot_41.png

    Almost makes a fella want to roll the dice with some short term GLD call options. :idea:
     
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  2. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Risk reward looks good IMO
     
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  3. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Modal Operator/Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Gold's in limbo for the duration.

    Thought Trump would be good for gold, but it looks as if the market likes the new chief...
     
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  4. silverwood

    silverwood Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Nice rally tonight. I just wish we could get a nice rally like this one between 9:30 am est and 4:00 pm est! Always goes down during that time frame or if it is rallying during those hours it is only a retrace rally that has no legs, HMMM.
     
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  5. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    2 hour chart, looks OK for a pop, mebe 1190. 1st delivery day, hopefully some pressure is getting applied.

    AU-2-20161201-616.png
     
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  6. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  7. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  8. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    So, to be clear, this is the number of contracts that represents actual metal changing hands? 6,507 is the number just for today? Do we know from who the gold goes and to who? Is this process behind the notion that if more contracts stand for delivery than the comex holds gold then we get some sort of commercial failure? (sorry for the torrent of questions - the older I get the less need I feel to conceal my ignorance.)
     
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  9. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Gold back in the target box. Every stock will be down tomorrow, except miners. Boom
     
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  10. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    6507 is the number of contracts that have been "stopped" (delivery requested) since first notice day (30 Nov 2016), so effectively that is two days worth served up on first delivery day (1 Dec 2016). Its a 100 oz contract so that is 650700 oz or 20.33 US Tons.

    We know what bullion bank is transacting but we don't know who the end customer is. The daily reports tell us that.

    C = Customer A/C
    H = House A/C
    Issued = Delivered
    Stopped = Taken Delivery

    http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf

    Typically less than 1% of the contracts get stopped (delivered) so the higher the delivery rate to more likely it is that someone who can't deliver will be called upon to deliver. That 1% can rise slowly without many issues as the market will adjust but if it moves fast there is the risk that it hits the critical number and a delivery cannot be made. A cash settle is in the rules. That may come with a non disclosure clause as they will be very keen to see that the exchange maintains credibility. So it is conceivable that this has happened already, in fact it maybe what is driving the way higher than normal deliveries this year. People that have been defaulted on are maybe going back to get as much as they can while there is a chance of getting metal. Maybe they are settling @ a premium to buy silence... I don't know BUT something is not business as usual here. Thing is if they are settling at a premium the funds involved will be back all year long to hit that thang hard before the gravy goes. That is a no lose... might explain the volume, then maybe ton and tons of metal are really moving!

    I am not sure, but this year has been a sea change on the delivery front and that signals a fundamental change in gold. When price will reflect that? Hmmmmmmm.... wish I knew.
     
  11. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Ok, I sorta knew some of that, but you snapped it into focus for me. Seems like it is just a waiting game at this point. My plan is to maintain a core position and then dance in and out on the side as circumstances dictate, bearing in mind I am probably playing in a puddle with a tsunami threatening somewhere in the unseen distance. Cheers.
     
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  12. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    1179 lid, crap. Thought it was going to be breached early. We were knocking om the door. Maybe by am...
     
  13. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    GSR is going negative again... a small but positive sign.
     
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  14. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  15. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    78/9 a lid. S&P ended green at +.04%. Miners performed as expected though. Still bullish miners in the short term (pre fomc)
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2016
  16. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  17. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  18. stonedywankanobe

    stonedywankanobe Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    SGR doing the tightn up. Sure it's only 1% you say?
    Yea 1% at a tyme buster!
     
  19. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Dec 3 2015, $30 rally next week, too obvious?

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Why not?

    Make it so. :D
     
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  21. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    For the record, This correction in metals has been worse than expected because the small fries keep hanging on and averaging down. They refuse to accept that the bull is over. CoT report. Not because of BS, everything is rosey now, Tramp effect.
     
  22. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Over?

    Its 1976...
     
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  23. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Funny you say that, let me go find my charts from a week or two back....
     
  24. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
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  25. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I didn't mean it is over. I meant they have to keep selling it off . Trying to give that impression, because small fries are refusing to capitulate
     
  26. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    LOL, you where sounding like a jaded old fart I once talked to!
     
  27. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    looks like $ is about to roll over

    [​IMG]


     
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  28. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Gold in the box. Magnet to 1188 at open, now back testing 1179.

    1179-1188-1197
     
  29. stonedywankanobe

    stonedywankanobe Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Insert nasty head fake gif here.
     
  30. Traderjoe

    Traderjoe Silver Member Silver Miner

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  31. stonedywankanobe

    stonedywankanobe Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    TJ you don't post much, but you get it sir.
     
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  32. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Yeah, when i saw this last night it was deja vu

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Yeah this is getting old...
     
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  34. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Dollar down is bad for gold lol
     
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  35. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    Seems everything is bad for gold. Trump wins, stocks up, dollar up, dollar down, the sun is out, I'm awake, I'm asleep, it's nice out, it's raining, it's snowing, the world is roaring, the world is burning, doesn't matter, gold is down. Fuck me, fuck you, fuck everyone, but really just fuck gold. And silver, fuck silver, too.

    [​IMG]
     
  36. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    It's always darkest before the dawn. Your despondent sentiment is a bullish indicator.:-) Gold looks like its trying to bottom on hourly charts. My mining stocks are holding up very well today considering how low gold is.
     
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  37. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    I think we just hit a short term or maybe a longer term bottom. The decline is shallowing out and there's a candle configuration that I've seen before a bottom showing up. Basing this on pure visual pattern recognition, sentiment and my intuition. May actually take one more pair of signals but I think this is it.
    BOTTOM.jpg
     
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  38. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Hopefully hike is baked in, but I won't be surprised if we see 1124-40 before buyers start showing up for a real reversal. Barring an unexpected world event of course.

    11, not 10
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
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  39. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  40. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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