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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.



  1. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Weekly Gold USD... it just looks RIPE to relieve this downward pressure. Granted at chart that looks like this can just grind lower but given the context of a generally positive first half it is hard to see that views will have changed that much and that this will be an extended bear drawn down as opposed to a buying opportunity. The rubber should hit the road into the end of December re delivery so if there is any pressure there it should express it self. ~ 8500 contracts standing so far so it is a big month already and we have time left to top that. YTD June has had the most delivered with 15785 contracts, it would be normal for December to top this and by a good margin... but then this has been no normal year. If there has ever been a chance on a soft default (cash settle) we are on the brink of it now, price has been pushed low (a good setup if you are paying out in cash) and deliveries have been high (all year!) and what is more I can't see the internutz screaming COMEX DEFAULT! I'm not calling it, just noting that the setup is the most probable that I have seen in 20 odd years of watching gold. If there is a soft default we will probably not hear of it (non disclosure etc), but the word will be out there and it will travel then price will come to reflect it. All we may know for sure is that price is strong. We may have to wait till Jan for the pop, 31/12/2016 POG will likely be the settlement price IF it comes to that. It is also possible that people that know it is coming (they will exist) will go in for the kill prior to the close of December.

    Either way the chart looks ripe, if we get this rally we will start to get a picture of where the big players now stand, maybe business as usual, maybe a shift. Remember the massive WELL out of the money calls that where on for December, basically they where insurance if things went wrong (IMO). As it happens they expired worthless BUT they appear to indicate that there was some significance to this period of time, like this years deliveries they where stand out numbers.

    Hmmmmmmmm..... summin is brewing, @ sea you can often sense the storm before you see it and feel it, I just can't shake that sense right now, maybe its alzheimer's setting in, maybe I have finally snapped, but maybe, just maybe there is something to it. I will only give long odds on it but, still that sense is nagging me, or maybe it's the wife... :( where are my meds? :p:D

    AU-W-20161212.png
     
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  2. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  3. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  4. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    ... and June has all calls up the top of the OI list from 1350 to 2200 it is pretty well covered with 1500 being the biggest followed by 2100. More insurance? One day it will pay. The first put on the list is 1100 and it is small OI relatively.

    Select 'All' then use the OI heading to alter the sort to high to low (click it!)

    https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCM17/options/jun-17
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2016
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  5. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    If the oil market rebounds that is going to put pressure on the cost of production in the PM market. Any way you look at it PMs are a buy right now. This may not be the bottom, but there are a lot of ingredients in this gumbo starting to come together to make prospects appear tasty.

    Wish I had a little more dry powder...
     
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  6. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    You reckon that is the big bankers hedging in case they get short squeezed and the price of gold shoots up? Someone is surely banking on at least the possibility that gold will go ballistic sometime in the next six months.
     
  7. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Yeah, more insurance than a hedge I'd say but similar idea. They have a target but know it can all go wrong, in fact the only way to find the limit is push until it goes wrong. IMO
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2016
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  8. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  9. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Silver futures turning green, gold should come back a bit
     
  10. JayDubya

    JayDubya Platinum Bling Platinum Bling

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    And then there's this....

    The Case For $500 Gold
    Dec. 11, 2016 4:53 AM ET

    Summary
    Gold's chart has the characteristics of a speculative bubble, and there is significantly more downside.

    The catalysts that pushed gold into bubble territory have become headwinds.

    Gold is now moving to its inflation adjusted average of $500 per ounce.

    Rest of article here - a whole lot more...
    http://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/the-case-for-500-gold.128230/
     
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  11. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Ding, ding, ding!
     
  12. EchelonPL

    EchelonPL New Member

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    Anyone remember Factfinder? I miss those days. Zed and Louky, really appreciate this thread. It takes me back in time to the good ole days of 2008-2009.

    Ps. Do you guys do requests? Can a brother please get a magic 8-ball reading on potash?!
     
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  13. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Silver up this am as expected. Gold green at least lol
     
  14. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    I don't particularly care for the version of reality outlined in this article..:-)
     
  15. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Only problem with that version is that gold becomes unprofitable to mine at $500/oz. So, if the mines shutter and production (i.e. supply) craters, what happens when demand surges?
     
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  16. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Thanks and thanks to Louky for making in more interesting while I am distracted by the rest of my increasingly chaotic life!
     
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  17. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Oh yeah, that shutters most every mine in the world. Shouldn't happen for any extended period even if the financial fundamentals melt down and if it does by some chance the snap back on decreased supply would be AWESOME, unless some CONSIDERABLE general deflation had occurred. In that scenario gold @ $500 should still have kept purchasing power over other assets. JMO
     
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  18. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Typical ambit claim made by linear projection @ a high/low. When you see this stuff become more common it is as good as ringing a bell on the rout/rally. The bear mindset has taken hold so it is time to hunt bears, they are abundant... I note it in my current thinking so it must be time to step outside my brain and fade its ass.
     
  19. JayDubya

    JayDubya Platinum Bling Platinum Bling

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    So, when the Fed announces it's rate hike Wednesday, should we expect to see year end profit taking and money flow out of the market and into gold?
     
  20. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Gold has to rally to 1220-39.

    Then dip again after cmas, into jan.

    Spring rally.

    Dump july.
     
  21. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    Some of the numismatic coins I watch here and there are doing pretty damn well lately, looking at "sold" listing on ebay. Foreign, gold and silver.
     
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  22. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Just now seeing this post. I totally feel ya - don't know if it is the lack of proper medication or imbalance at home, or, perhaps, we are feeling the same thing in the PM markets, but we have been anesthetized and clubbed down for a good while... possible bear trap coming? Things should start to snap into focus as early as tamarra w/ the Fed...

    BTW, call me paranoid but I have the same but opposite sense with the US stock market/Dow. I can almost hear strains of 'Happy days are hear again' being hummed in the mainstream financial hallways. Makes me wonder if we aren't looking at a bull trap coming down the pike...
     
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  23. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Premiums remain quite reasonable despite lower prices.
     
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  24. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Profit may well be pushed into next year for tax purposes, profit taken on Jan 1 can be used all year before the IRS get a cut. December may see a pump to make the quarters numbers look good, Jan may see a dump if there is no conviction that the current trend is sustainable.

    2c

    FWIW
     
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  25. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    What could possibly go wrong?
     
  26. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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  27. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Usd/jpy looks like it's about to puke. Miners going to rip, my guess
     
  28. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    Gold's price action last year day of FOMC .25% announcement. (Green)
    FedMeetDec1516-15.jpg
     
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  29. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    It's like slappin' the shit outta some really drunk guy at a party. At first he's like, "hey, what, what, who the, what the, shit who did that, fuck you!" But 5 minutes later he's back to his beer like nuthin' happened.
     
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  30. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    There's a nice semi predictable 2% volatility in JDST today. Jumping in and out..:-)
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
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  31. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    Gold's price action today before the FOMC announcement (2:15pm). Place your bets..:-)
    I pick #1.

    1) Rapidly up then rapidly down
    2) Rapidly down then rapidly up
    3) No significant reaction

    tabf.jpg
     
  32. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    Wikia_MWC_-_Peg's_Al.png
     
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  33. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    I will try and find a chart later. Never looked at it before.
     
  34. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Hammer time. How low can ya go?
     
  35. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Right now this is thin liquidity access market crap, we need to wait until some real action begins. In AUD gold is pretty well flat @ this post so it is all in the USD from this vantage point. I guess that they will lean on it HARD to set the tone for the market as volume comes back into it. If it works it will trigger stops and more selling will occur, if conviction is out there it will be seen as a buy. OI has PLUMMETED since July, commercials have closed out a significant number of short positions considering the price decline, beats most of the historical precedence. In fact the last time we did anything like this it led directly into the short squeeze into 1920. The contraction into the 2008 lows was not this hard, given the stress in the market then you have to think that now there is some significant shift under way. I am really starting to think that 1/1/2017 kicks off the upswing once they have done all the house keeping they can this month. 2017 could turn into a massive pump then dump operation as 2018 looms and all this other crap unfolds. My guess is that a war on gold will get serious once Wall St has made quick money on it... they are nothing if not impatient so if 2017 runs HOT beware 2018. If 2018 goes to crap they will try and hang it all on Trump, they will probably succeed, part of this is this desperate need to grab back the power of MSM from the 'fake' alt media. I expect that war to escalate as well, they cannot be happy about the total loss of cred. Looks to me like the rubber is starting to hit the road, I can't shake the feeling that this little financial war is about to go hot. Whip the hat around and buy me new meds will ya? I obviously need it!

    BTW the 'settle' price is looking better and better for a 'soft default' (cash settle) come 30/12... not predicting just noting. Keep and eye on those delivery numbers this week. The last trade for gold this month is 28/12, naked positions MUST close or roll forward by then. 29/12 is last notice for delivery. 30/12 is last delivery and the last trading day.
     
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  36. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Depends where the profit taking algos are waiting, this is all computers for now. Nothing real happens until Hong Kong, Sydney will likely just get sucked into the selling. JMO.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
  37. Nomis Elpmis

    Nomis Elpmis Minimalist Silver Miner

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    Of course I sell out and collect my 2% from JDST (Junior Miner 3x Bear) and then it proceeds to move another 14%. Pretty typical..:-)
     
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  38. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    yup, typical! Just happy to have caught that huge oil ramp up on monday. Didnt collect all the profit, but did get spooked by the price action yesterday and dumped everything. Also timed my steel exit perfectly. Gold/silver Miners, not so much. Haha
     
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  39. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    [​IMG]
     
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  40. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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