1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.



  1. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  2. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Tested top of the box 97/98 Midpoint (88) is usually strongest
     
  3. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Mo'money!

    We are going to find out down here, personal debt is off the charts historically speaking. There will be many nutz in many vices, in fact we are starting to see some impact from a tightening right now. Little things like the crime rate is on the uptick, domestic violence seems to be on the rise and those that once went over seas for holidays are now staying local. Mortgage stress is also rising and the property market is looking very toppy.

    It will not be pretty.

    In the end they can only print and hope... but really doing NOTHING is the better option, sooner we kill this debt the better off everyone will be.

    2c

    FWIW
     
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  4. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Regarding housing. H&s on the yearly and monster one on the 5 year[​IMG]
     
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  5. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    Wonder what caused the Bitcoin spike then crash? That's some volatile shit.
     
  6. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Last edited: Jan 12, 2017
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  7. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Didnt take long. Top of box should become support after a few back tests
     
  8. stAGgering

    stAGgering Silver Miner Seeker

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    Rabble rabble rabble rabble.
    Gold, silver, AND Bitcoin upon calender, are approaching yoy lows.
    No contract effect could be expected here now could it.
    Retail metal sales are not exactly shiny.
    But what does that have to do with the price of tea in China... before New Year ?
    I suspect entry level opportunity shall be coming forth in all above mentioned, minus tea.
     
  9. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    The Comex hours didn't produce the normal aggressive assault, the selling looked normal.
     
  10. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  11. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Trump, if he succeeds, will cause a global recession/depression! It kinda twigged this morning while reading Hugo Salinas Price on Mexico. The current monetary system as it is designed with the USD at the centre, requires all nations to run a trade surplus with the US in order to gain foreign reserves to under pin their own currency. In other words the US must run a deficit with all other nations. This is the real driving force behind the US losing its manufacturing base, in order to be viable every other nation MUST find some good that it can under cut the US on in order to sell it in the US and gain reserves. This drives the US to constantly 'borrow' in order to fund this 'expansion'. Great benefit flows to the US consumer BUT over time the US manufacturing base is eroded and ultimately it is unsustainable arrangement. Triffin is the guy who first observed it in the mid 60's, he noted what became known as the Triffen Dilemma.

    Anywhoooo... if Trump succeeds in dragging manufacturing back to the US it will bring hardship to the rest of the world, not to mention an insanely strong USD as foreign reserves are repatriated as a part of the process. That will not be allow to stand unchallenged and other nations will defend their positions by weakening their currencies or whatever else it takes to keep competition going. If he succeeds it will trip off an economic war of sorts, a currency war certainly. While we/I have been expecting this I was not really thinking that it was such an unavoidable consequence of the current system.

    Really what needs to happen BEFORE adjustments take place is a new monetary order without the USD as the king pin. That will bring both benefits and lost advantages to the US but it will level the playing field. It's not going to happen that way, we will have significant tension before it occurs BUT it is not hard to see how Trumps actions (if effective) will lead to a revised international monetary order. He has a good chance of triggering the conditions for a reset... hopefully he will avoid the major war that typically goes with these events.

    Anyway... looks like Mr Triffin's chooks may be finally coming home to roost. Some day this counts, some day soon?
     
  12. stAGgering

    stAGgering Silver Miner Seeker

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    "Trump, if he succeeds, will cause a global recession/depression! "

    Are you smoking crack ?
    With global debt saturation, Mickey Mouse "will cause" all of what is underway.
    There is no recovery with debt saturation, before adjustments of horrific proportions.
    HHmmm let's see.
    What countries were in similar debt positions in the 20th century.
    Geez I can think of one which was there twice, and MILLIONS died... globally.
    Trump is but a bump, for the oligarch machine to flatten as it continues on.
    Of course there is opportunity for all us crazies here, seeing ahead of the oligarch machine, as we run in the dust behind it.
    As I stated before, just wait, as the simplicity of what approaches rhymes with we have already past.
    Complexity being delivered is similar to tinsel on the tree. It is still a tree.
     
  13. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I read this article and generally enjoy reading Price. My only complaint was that the link between the Breton Woods agreement (making the USD the new gold standard) and the necessity of running a trade deficit was not well explained. doesn't seem quite intuitive. Why can't this system reach steady state?
     
  14. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    ...because the world is addicted to growth and strives to achieve it. If we mastered some utopian state of being with a zero growth rate then all would be well but while we strive for growth reserve requirements will also grow and so will the pressure on the US to supply dollars. Given the USD is debt based that means an ever increasing US debt load. This is the only way that the US has been able to have a service (or consumer driven) economy, basically all the consumption has been underpinned by personal and national debt while all the production has been outsourced globally to the lowest bidder. This is all good for a while, the US gets the biggest and cheapest selection of goods (yes I am jealous sometimes) and basically a subsidised life style way above the average...until... the 'debt plane' stops flying. Then it's a wreck... this thing only flies while the world takes the debt based IOU, that is the USD, as GOOD currency. When that stops the benefits stop accruing to the US consumer (massive price inflation should occur) and the US debt becomes a large albatross around it's neck. We know now that it is impossible to repay so I guess any pain will last only as long as any attempt to repay it is in play. Default would seem inevitable, soft or hard (print or renege) and really with the Fed buying debt the soft option is already in play. Those that hold USD reserves as payment for goods will be cheated, one way or the other, sooner or later. That is the thing, goldbugs ranting about paying the debt down don't seem to realise that means sucking every USD out of circulation... including all reserves held by foreign governments..... killing the debt has no happy ending, however it happens. Yet the debt is unsustainable while the system as it stand will gut the US economy while adding more to the debt. Effectively altering this and bringing manufacturing back to the US means altering the international monetary order. That will be traumatic, at least I think so, I can't see a way of doing it without major upsets.... sooooo much relies on the status quo, yet the status quo must break, sooner or later.

    It's good to be the king!....until a revolution occurs.

    The MASSIVE irony here is that if Trump delivers it is quite possible he will trip off the inevitable wreck that this system MUST have. Then no one will win for a good while... so if he succeeds... he fails. I'd not be the POTUS for ANYTHING at this point in history.
     
  15. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Then again... mebe I have it all TITS UP?!!!! :p:confused::D:oops:
     
  16. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Awesome primer... if that's tits up then at least it's a nice set... :2 thumbs up:
     
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  17. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    Who was the last president who did what he said he would do?
     
  18. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Nice back test of the midpoint today 88. Gonna close at top of the box. 97
     
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  19. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    OK.. trigger, not cause.

    US debt is different because it is the reserve, it's not the same dynamic as other countries.

    I think that there is one country in history that has actually paid its debt down, so history is not good on that front.

    The complexity merely describes what has happened to the US in terms of increased debt and loss of manufacturing base. The system ensured that, if it where not the reserve currency it would be different.

    No I am not smoking crack, don't be a dick head.
     
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  20. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    They say so much shit that I forget! Was he going to pay down the debt? If Trump 'restructures' debt as he has mooted in the past... well... then it could be a disaster for the rest of us and not so much fun for you guys for a while. It is still the quickest way out of the hole... so... ya reckon he has the king size balls for that call?

    Yeah, you can colour me skeptical. whistle:
     
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  21. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Is this where some aid sidles up to Don and wispers in his ear... we sold it, Don, the gold is gone, China has it.
     
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  22. andial

    andial Sir Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Fed has it, much safer than Fort Knox.
     
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  23. 90%RealMoney

    90%RealMoney Midas Member Midas Member

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    I'll never forget Bill Clinton, a month before he left office or so. All the daytrading that was going on during the dot.com era, brought in all kinds of tax revenues. So there's Clinton, with Robert Rubin standing behind him, and Clinton states that the national debt would be paid off within just a few years. Rubin had a look on his face like "Oh my God, I can't believe I'm standing here, while he tells this whopper!" Clinton was of course expecting the stock market to reach infinity. The Nasdaq had already crashed basically, and the DOW did the same shortly thereafter. My dates might not be exact, but it did happen nonetheless. What a joke that all was!
     
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  24. chud

    chud Seeker

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    Yep, the Democrats like to brag about how good the economy was during Bill Clinton's administration, but the truth is he just happened to be president during the dot-com bubble.
     
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  25. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Once you know it is impossible without changing the way the USD comes into being... kinda makes them obvious conmen, don't it! At least the bullshit was once credible, now it seems they can and will say anything!
     
  26. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    That monetary expansion certianly set the place on fire down here in OZ, the joint was jumping... coked off it's tits, but jumping none the less.
     
  27. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Yes, they put it in an offshore account.
     
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  28. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Seems tptb are defending 1200 and 17.00 rather strongly.
     
  29. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Never made it. Boating accident

    :belly laugh:
     
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  30. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The box helps when trading. When gold hit bottom of the box 79, I knew to reduce. 1/5/17 Peak GDX. 1/5/17 post noted reduction here on the forum.

    [​IMG]

    Chart is Day after FOMC when I began accumulating until now

     
  31. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I locked in losses at some point last year during the correction. Think I started buying around 30% correction in miners and backed out around 40% when I finally accepted the reversal wasn't coming soon.

    Always happy to lock in losses when I'm wrong:

    [​IMG]


    Think of all the poor souls who bought the August top and rode it down. I know some personally. 50% draw down in miners.

    Lucky for them, I believe GDX will double (18/19 to 37) by summer
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2017
  32. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    2017 end of the $ bull
     
  33. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

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    Hopefully you are correct, sir.
     
  34. stAGgering

    stAGgering Silver Miner Seeker

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    Yes, a trigger not cause.
    The resulting difference of global reserve vs sovereign debt, is depth and length of rule and consequences.
    How the "system" was played ensured that.
    Ronni Raygun turned US from #1 world creditor to #1 debtor in 8 years.
    Not because he was brilliant or a leader, or had any form of foresight.
    Because he was granted the option of trigger pull, and took it.
    He is but one who has foolishly pulled the oligarchy granted trigger.
    If he had not been placed upon the stage again, and US had not massively increased debt; and gone through boomer bonus years without Federal Reserve worshipping... dear god, what would we be looking at today.
    Again, history of those in power readily shows fear must be used to control masses, not happiness.
    To assume otherwise when knowing the evolution of US populations fears, well, you tell me.

    I will not be a dickhead. As I was not.
     
  35. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    the extreme speculative exposure imbalance for futures traders has been worked off

    [​IMG]
     
  36. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  37. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2017
  38. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    You seem to be missing the point that to remain as the reserve currency the US would have had to increase its debt load regardless of who was in control. The flaw is in having a debt based currency as the reserve, the consequence is inevitable.
     
  39. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Net Futures is alway a wash... 0, so I have to assume that is net commercial? or have I missed summin?
     
  40. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It's meant to reflect net spec positioning in relation to price
     

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