Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.
I don't like moves in the globex period, they tend not to stick. Don't count this one until we see follow through. POG 1220 + over the next few sessions and POS 17.44+. Silver daily looks good for a shot @ 18.50+ and gold same 1260+. Both are very needed developments for this bull move to get proper legs. Weeklies are not looking as good and not that supportive, so this could still drag out.
Scratch that, no back test at this juncture. Up we go
1251 pivot, 1269 bottom of the box
Posted this elsewhere
Just watched Grant Williams interviewing Egon von Greyerz on ZeroHedge from late 2016. Very worthwhile imo. Interesting how near the end, when talking about 2017 predictions for gold Greyerz states that at first gold will go up with the dollar, then gold will fly on its own - not unlike what the Z man has stated for us here several times here in the past.
Unlike today's move in the metals, post Fed interest rate hike, which was partly fueled by the sharp move lower in the dollar, tonight we are seeing continued strength in the metals against a static dollar. I think if we see continued short term strength in the metals we will 1)confirm the role of interest rate hikes in providing rocket fuel for the POG and 2) have some pretty strong confirmation that the low was in in 12/15.
... it just looks to be a logical consequence. Of course government action could divert/pervert it, they are the wild card in all this.
In defence of the Yuan?
Yup. Basically gold and dollar will melt up as foreign currencies melt down. Then when dollar collapses after 2019, gold will really go crazy.
So far so good
Time for debt ceiling increase, debt over 20T and climbing, tptb will not let trump succeed , I see the stock market tanking, metals going up big, just don't know when.
Not quite there yet!.... but I don't mind the setup.
I believe Chicago is just keeping raising real estate taxes, what's to stop others frofojn the same
They only have one choice, tax the working in one way or another... but in the end they will have to trim the payout as well. This is all a part of this intergenerational conflict we seem to be set up for.
~1240 is the next resistance then ~1260 @ the 200 DMA. This looks like it should have the legs to get to that ~130x area, break 1260 and the next $40 or so should be quick. From the chart I'd guess that we fanny about getting over 1240 and 1260 then we get a little hot into ~1300 where we pause and probably come back to test the ~1260 area. Weekly still not looking supportive, some work to do there but the daily looks strong enough to drag it northward for a while.
Resistance @ 50DMA, 200DMA, 18.37 - 62 then 19.87 - 20. Similar to gold but I think we have to top that recent high @ ~18.40 and better 18.60 before we get an acceleration to the next probable intermediate high @ ~20. With luck we hit that, then correct, test ~18.60 and then move on. Plenty of near static to keep us fannying around for a while then some clear air for a pop to a top. A bull trend NEEDS to top $18.60 on the next high so expect some static there but this looks quite doable to me. Weekly not supportive and will weigh on the situation until we get that 18.60+ ...JMO
Looks like a falling wedge correction to me. On support here, IMO it will break and we will find better support @ that ~99 level. From there we should make a run for the 100 level again. Breaking over it will probably be the breakout for the USDX to vault to its next level, too me that looks to be the ~108.5 area.
PS. There should be another support line @ ~ 99.5o That could hold but normally you hit the bottom of the structure. ~99 looks like a better call to me.
Bored since 2011.
That is a boat load of boredom!
When it goes it will shock the poop out of all of us.
I think that is the idea... hypnotize everyone till they get bored and start staring at their feet - then, Whammo! caught ya snoozing'...
Snoozing? Feels more like a coma.
Yes, the market is waiting until the majority of the hopium goes up in smoke.
It does that.
It is a spirit crushing machine.
It truly helps to have masochistic tendencies.
It's nice when the plan comes together. Lets see what happens here around 1251
I think that the battle here is ~1259 or the 200DMA. ~1250 is resistance but the 200 is SOOOO close and IMO carries more significance. JMO. Lets watch!
Thanks, zed. I haven't really looked at ma's, just watching my levels. 1251 is the pivot/key to the next box 1269-78-87
This is my weekly just for comparison. I use the highest closes in the first part of the down trend to establish slope and then I use parallel lines (the lower two) to validate it. I find that the market tends to have a speed limit at any given time. If the slope of the trend that I have drawn is valid the parallel lines also tend to intersect support/resistance points giving you sloping support/resistance lines or what I have been calling 'speed lines' for a while.
Not only do we have a collection of very long term averages near by we have the 200DMA (not on chart but @ 40 weeks it is very near the 50 week one) @ ~1259 very close to the line @ around that mid 1260 mark (next week). Not far from your numbers!
IMO if we get through this sticky patch it bodes VERY well for gold over the summer into year end.
It is interesting how differently charts are drawn and how good chartist often come up with similar observations via differing interpretations. Not that I am making ANY statement about quality.... this is the Lunatic Fringe after all.
... where I disagree with Ted is that these guys can use paper to hedge paper, they don't need silver, they just need $$$$$$. Silver options, silver stocks and options on silver stocks SHOULD be enough to cover the $$$$$ exposure on silver and even make a $.
Not month end but I posted it on old Ax's thread and you know... I will be damned if I give him the scoop on my STELLAR T/A!
The three conflicting 'speed line' sets that I have on one of my monthly charts. IMO that 1500-50 area is the final frontier, over that the market will stop arguing the toss and focus on dip buying and profit taking.
Aside from the MA cluster and the 1250 level we have immediately ahead of us a positive development has been that the Parabolic SAR "trend" held. Typically on the gold weekly this would indicate that the current move out of ~1125 is about 50% done. This targets the white line @ ~1380 which is a plausible resting point given that a few classically drawn resistance lines can be placed between 1366 and 1400. My call is that we get a squeeze into that zone after beating out the MA shorters. This looks totally doable by May/June... then a summer pause until say Aug/Sep as we digest the assault on 1400.
Silver is similar, targeting $21 with a few classically drawn resistance lines between 20.27 and 24.07.
Gentlemen, I suspect that we are soon to "go hot" then flame out for summer. Maybe that is too bold a call but holding that Para SAR level (so far) bodes well. The caveat is getting over this 'static' of significant levels and MA's soonish... but indications are good IMO. Traders should be prepared to get aggressive on a break out here IMO. A quick round trip for summer could pay for a nice break before what is probably going to be an entertaining, if not exhausting, year end.
2c worth lobbed in from the extreme loony fringe!
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