1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
    Dismiss Notice
  2. There are no markets
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Week of 6/24/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1256.40 Silver $16.64 Oil $43.01 USD $96.94
  4. "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"
    Dismiss Notice

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Zed, Oct 21, 2014.



  1. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    I still think the US dollar explodes upwards and doesn't implode. Martin Armstrong has this right in my opinion, the Chinese will take over sometime around 2030 but until then the only potential viable alternative, the euro, has been a failure. It's the US dollar all the way until we get a large, liquid, trusted, government-backed debt market outside of the US. China is the only option and they are a long way from being ready. Government sponsored gold backed cryptocurrency would be a massive step in the right direction JMO. Watch that space!
     
    JayDubya, savvydon and louky like this.
  2. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    Initial support at 1325, obviously this must be crushed but it's encouraging!
     
  3. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/the-coming-one-world-currency/

    To own the reserve currency is to own the largest debt market in the world. To qualify as the reserve currency you must own the 'go to' market for big money and that market is big debt ---> AKA US Treasuries. It goes without saying that it needs to be large liquid and trusted. Following that through, one world currency means one world debt market which in turn means one world government. That is simply not going to happen, at least not in a hurry. What this means for now and for the foreseeable future is that the USA will still own the reserve currency. China is the only potential challenger and it still has some way to go.

    Given those facts any major stress in the financial world will lead to a dollar melt up not a dollar meltdown. The same forces that drive the dollar can easily end up driving gold and silver as well. They are basically the same forces driving crypto-currencies at the moment, albeit that the crypto market appears to be in a bit of a bubble.

    One potential scenario is the creation of an artificial reserve currency in which all debt is issued and every currency floats against. This could only be achieved by international agreement. It would most probably mean the conversion of all existing debt into this new currency and it would introduce floating rate currency risk to every bond existing. That could enforce greater restraint in the management of our national currencies as mismanagement would directly impact the value of a national currency against the reserve and thus the ability of any given government to borrow money. I don't know that this should be used as an internal currency in any country but I guess smaller countries with volatile currencies may opt to use it much like some countries use the US dollar now. This would be very much and artificial construct by international agreement, as such you'd have to rate it's chances of coming into existence as low and even if it did you'd have to rate its chances of survival as low. That is without even considering the amount of fiscal discipline it would enforce on nations which is never something governments welcome. I'm just being pragmatic but pointing out that it's technically possible. Personally I think it is far more likely that China becomes the reserve but I guess the threat of China becoming the reserve may coalesce the rest of the world into some sort of agreement.

    I'd not expect change quickly, certainly not next year, maybe a crisis next year and that may be a catalyst for change but I would think actual change would take a long time. In the interim gold has to be looking good. JMO

    Just some thoughts from the lunatic fringe.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
    savvydon, andial and JayDubya like this.
  4. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    In August 1939, Hitler and Stalin signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact making Russia and Germany essentially allies. Less than 2 years later, Germany launched a 3.8 million troop invasion of Russia. My point being, big things can change quickly with adverse consequences.
     
  5. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    True, but that was a bilateral agreement... we are talking all the economic heavy hitters globally agreeing. That is way more complex! If we have a significant enough crisis then who knows what will happen but I'd not be holding my breath on that one. Besides, gold rules while confusion reigns... if they settle on a new scheme it will be gold bearish. JMO.
     
  6. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    [​IMG]
     
    bemac and savvydon like this.
  7. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2010
    Messages:
    1,924
    Likes Received:
    1,471
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Lots of food for thought... I guess I see the international agreement option being taken if the US continues down the globalist path it had been taking up till this year. If this tax cut gets rammed through and the US coalesces politically around a nationalist bent then I do see the dollar rallying while it remains the reserve currency - that is, until China saves up enough dry powder (i.e. gold and non dollar international trade agreements) to either force a compromise on the reserve currency or take it outright.
     
    Zed likes this.
  8. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    Like all countries the US takes the path that suits it most, personally I don't think that relinquishing the reserve will be something that comes easily to the US. I'd imagine that even if it where inevitable they would still seek to dominate it, much like the UN. The UN is never really likely to offend or disadvantage the US, I would see it as being a similar situation for whatever currency agreement comes about. Of course that will probably offend China and the negotiation would be protracted --> IMO... like these trade deals that take forever. I don't know... maybe a real crisis moves some minds and it happens, but colour me sceptical for the mo.
     
  9. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    With 31 gone as expected, now watch 21....air below that

    [​IMG]
     
  10. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Maybe $ rocket after crypto goes poopsky
     
  11. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
  12. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Tptb still pumping relics hard

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If some entity or group attempts to remove the reserve currency status from the US, and that removal threatens to implode the US economy (as it most likely would at the least contract our economy significantly), then be ready for a "significant enough crisis". I don't think that the US would simply stand by and let a foreign entity crash our economy without some sort of military threat or posturing.
     
  14. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2010
    Messages:
    5,245
    Likes Received:
    4,231
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah, destroying our economy is OUR job.
     
    JayDubya and Zed like this.
  15. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    Yes but it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't, situation. Look up the Triffen dilemma, just being the reserve currency eventually kills you, which is a large part of what's going wrong with the US.
     
  16. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    The dollar should rocket after the crisis starts. It will be big money looking for a safe haven that drives dollar up just like 2008.
     
    spinalcracker and Thecrensh like this.
  17. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
  18. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So you're predicting a stock market crash in 2019 or so?
     
  19. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    That's Got Goldies. He is pretty good with the dollar, though he did expect support much sooner than 88 originally
     
  20. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

    Joined:
    May 31, 2015
    Messages:
    14,095
    Likes Received:
    13,892
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Oxygen Breather
    Location:
    Somewhere out there!
    Clear as mud! :belly laugh:
     
  21. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Really is, right inverted shoulder then kaboom
     
  22. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2010
    Messages:
    5,245
    Likes Received:
    4,231
    Trophy Points:
    113
    1 BTC = $3016
     
    louky likes this.
  23. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    13,293
    Likes Received:
    10,723
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So whats the trade for a market crash, last time it took metals with it, will it be different this time and metals go up or what.
     
  24. bemac

    bemac Midas Member Midas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2010
    Messages:
    5,245
    Likes Received:
    4,231
    Trophy Points:
    113
    $3629 now, jeez and we thought silver was volatile.
     
  25. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    like i said in the other thread, anything less than 50% drop = :tired:

     
  26. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
  27. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
  28. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What is the significance of that little grey circle?
     
  29. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Probable retrace zone
     
  30. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Price is attracted to those little bubbles....
     
  31. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So when that line goes up, the price goes up? Typically?
     
  32. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Well we knew gold was going to hit 1359, then dump. So that sets the top of this cycle. Gold guaranteed will retrace 38%, most likely 50%, possibly 61.8. That gives downside targets using standard fibs.

    Or you can just watch the boxes on kitco tracker with no charts needed. I've posted them all the way back for months, but lower box is 1296-1287-1278-1269 with small pivot at 1305. You'll find that fibs, trendlines etc will always magically become these numbers, but we can know months in advance.


    1359 to 1296 is what you call no man's land. That means never buy or hold there if trading
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017 at 1:08 PM
  33. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    I mean just look back few pages. As soon as i noticed we were cleared for lift off, I said 1359. Straight to it. Pretty much everyone was calling for gold dump, every gold blog and chart reader. We rode up and sold 2 bucks short of the high, 1362. The boxes are all that really matters.
     
  34. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    11,161
    Likes Received:
    9,103
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Nuclear Technician
    Location:
    Springfield
    According to Mr Martin Armstrong the next up leg starts in November sometime. I really should go work out what date, so where do you figure price will be in November young man?
     
    Goldhedge likes this.
  35. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,612
    Likes Received:
    2,417
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh, if I were someone who owned gold, I would never actually sell it. At least not until the price was too good to refuse....
     
  36. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    1305 pivot on FOMC week....

    :belly laugh:
     
  37. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass

    Fast forward, Whole rally straight to 1359 starts off of 1251 with Fake north korea news





    :belly laugh::belly laugh::belly laugh:
     
  38. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Modal Operator/Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Messages:
    27,483
    Likes Received:
    30,544
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Tech
    Just hope they don't revalue mortgage contracts using a new valuation system


    Not sure they have that ability to change a valid contract on the fly....??
     
  39. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017 at 5:40 PM
  40. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    3,030
    Likes Received:
    1,510
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass

Share This Page