1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
    Dismiss Notice
  2. There are no markets
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Week of 6/24/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1256.40 Silver $16.64 Oil $43.01 USD $96.94
  4. "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"
    Dismiss Notice

Exactly Like 7 Years Ago? 2014 Is Turning Out To Be Eerily Similar To 2007

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by searcher, Apr 24, 2014.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    133,910
    Likes Received:
    38,488
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Exactly Like 7 Years Ago? 2014 Is Turning Out To Be Eerily Similar To 2007


    By Michael Snyder, on April 23rd, 2014



    [​IMG]


    The similarities between 2007 and 2014 continue to pile up. As you are about to see, U.S. home sales fell dramatically throughout 2007 even as the mainstream media, our politicians and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised us that everything was going to be just fine and that we definitely were not going to experience a recession. Of course we remember precisely what followed. It was the worst economic crisis since the days of the Great Depression. And you know what they say - if we do not learn from history we are doomed to repeat it. Just like seven years ago, the stock market has soared to all-time high after all-time high. Just like seven years ago, the authorities are telling us that there is nothing to worry about. Unfortunately, just like seven years ago, a housing bubble is imploding and another great economic crisis is rapidly approaching.

    Posted below is a chart of existing home sales in the United States during 2007. As you can see, existing home sales declined precipitously throughout the year...

    [​IMG]

    Now look at this chart which shows what has happened to existing home sales in the United States in recent months. If you compare the two charts, you will see that the numbers are eerily similar...

    [​IMG]

    New home sales are also following a similar pattern. In fact, we just learned that new home sales have collapsed to an 8 month low...


    Sales of new single-family homes dropped sharply last month as severe winter weather and higher mortgage rates continued to slow the housing recovery.

    New home sales fell 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 385,000, down from February's revised pace of 449,000, the Census Bureau said.



    Once again, this is so similar to what we witnessed back in 2007. The following is a chart that shows how new home sales declined dramatically throughout that year...


    [​IMG]

    And this chart shows what has happened to new homes sales during the past several months. Sadly, we have never even gotten close to returning to the level that we were at back in 2007. But even the modest "recovery" that we have experienced is now quickly unraveling...


    [​IMG]

    If history does repeat, then what we are witnessing right now is a very troubling sign for the months to come. As you can see from this chart, new home sales usually start going down before a recession begins.

    And don't expect these housing numbers to rebound any time soon. The demand for mortgages has dropped through the floor. Just check out the following excerpt from a recent article by Michael Lombardi...

    One of the key indicators I follow in respect to the state of the housing market is mortgage originations. This data gives me an idea about demand for homes, as rising demand for mortgages means more people are buying homes. And as demand increases, prices should be increasing.

    But the opposite is happening…
    In the first quarter of 2014, mortgage originations at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE/C) declined 71% from the same period a year ago. The bank issued $5.2 billion in mortgages in the first quarter of 2014, compared to $8.3 billion in the previous quarter and $18.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. (Source: Citigroup Inc. web site, last accessed April 14, 2014.)

    Total mortgage origination volume at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE/JPM) declined by 68% in the first quarter of 2014 from the same period a year ago. At JPMorgan, in the first quarter of 2014, $17.0 billion worth of mortgages were issued, compared to $52.7 billion in the same period a year ago. (Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co. web site, last accessed April 14, 2014.)


    It is almost as if we are watching a replay of 2007 all over again, and yet nobody is talking about this.

    Everyone wants to believe that this time will be different.

    The human capacity for self-delusion is absolutely amazing.

    There are a lot of other similarities between 2007 and today as well.

    Just the other day, I noted that retail stores are closing in the United States at the fastest pace that we have seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    Back in 2007, we saw margin debt on Wall Street spike dramatically and help fuel a remarkable run in the stock market. Just check out the chart in this article. But that spike in margin debt also made the eventual stock market collapse much worse than it had to be.

    And just like 2007, consumer credit is totally out of control. As I noted in one recent article, during the fourth quarter of 2013 we witnessed the biggest increase in consumer debt in the U.S. that we have seen since 2007. Total consumer credit in the U.S. has risen by 22 percent over the past three years, and 56 percent of all Americans have "subprime credit" at this point.

    Are you starting to get the picture? It is only 7 years later, and the same things that happened just prior to the last great financial crisis are happening again. Only this time we are in much worse shape to handle an economic meltdown. The following is a brief excerpt from my recent article entitled "We Are In FAR Worse Shape Than We Were Just Prior To The Last Great Financial Crisis"...


    None of the problems that caused the last financial crisis have been fixed. In fact, they have all gotten worse. The total amount of debt in the world has grown by more than 40 percent since 2007, the too big to fail banks have gotten 37 percent larger, and the colossal derivatives bubble has spiraled so far out of control that the only thing left to do is to watch the spectacular crash landing that is inevitably coming.



    You can read the rest of that article right here.

    For a long time, I have been convinced that this two year time period is going to represent a major "turning point" for America.

    Right now, 2014 is turning out to be eerily similar to 2007.

    Will 2015 turn out to be a repeat of 2008?

    Please feel free to share what you think by posting a comment below...



    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...4-is-turning-out-to-be-eerily-similar-to-2007
     
  2. historyrepete

    historyrepete Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    1,498
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    driving thru flyover
    This can't be happening. This administration pulled us back from the cliff. All references to the great recession are in past tense. Everything is gonna be ok, party on, shop on and enjoy the game.
     
    Thecrensh likes this.
  3. luckabuck

    luckabuck Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,261
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Interesting, and very scary read.....thanks.
     
  4. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    13,884
    Likes Received:
    11,668
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Dont bogart that joint my friend, pass it over to me, Wish I hadn't taken the dam pill and stayed in the matrix.
     
  5. michael59

    michael59 heads up-butts down Site Supporter ++ Platinum Bling

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2014
    Messages:
    6,506
    Likes Received:
    2,971
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    20 years logging
    Location:
    on the low side of corporate Oregon
    I have heard rumblings about a collapse for two years now and it looks like it is coming due. It is said this next one is going to be a dooosey, this is the next one. 2008 ruined me financially all because I didn't understand that houses and tree work go together in strange ways.
     
  6. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,979
    Likes Received:
    2,813
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Interesting; 2015 is the year that (can't remember his handle) one of the posters on here claims "Shemitah" or something to that effect...interesting coincidence.
     
  7. MlCHAEL

    MlCHAEL Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,554
    Likes Received:
    396
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Yield rates were being engineered lower or imploded by Japan and China for the past 33 years.

    to produce the explosion of credit in the USA to power the entire global trade system...but in 2006...the supply of resources in the USA...were exhausted...people willing an able to sign on the dotted line...of death pledges...and support it all.

    "The word mortgage is a French Law term meaning "death pledge", meaning that the pledge ends (dies) when either the obligation is fulfilled or the property is taken through foreclosure"

    Of course the French do not call their loan agreements death pledges...since that is not good for marketing.

    from 2006 to 2008...The USA an global trade system began to collapse...right where M3 was discontinued by the FED...since the collapse of the 1991 to 2006 real estate bubble would have shown up there...Greenspan was switched out with Bernanke...and short term yields became higher than long term yields...or became inverted...

    the goal was to get to the controlled implosion of Lehmans

    2001 to 2008 is roughly 7.5 years...and 7.5 more years...in a down phase...was turned into an up phase...now the up phase should be starting...but the power was blown during the 2008 to 2014 down phase to make it an up phase...so there is no power to sustain the up phase to 2021...which is going to be a down phase.

    the so called enemy...wins hands down...if you think a mob of ignorant gun owners is going to win...if you consider being turned into splatter...victory...then you will win.

    and forget ex military...Unless general George Washington shows up...or Jesus...or aliens or some superior force with a plan...you all are ants that can be annihilated by a popcorn fart.

    Once the goo goo ga ga babies in diapers economy you all are dependent upon collapses...The kid gloves fly off...and the evil forces of evilness will have free reign.

    and the people pretending to be your best friends now...will turn into you worst enemies...especially in fake ass USA.

    If you think reducing yourself to a thumb sucking thou shall not kill non violent baby seals...is a defense against the clubbers...then you basically made a monumental tactical error.

    If you are still living in a city at this point...you have rolled the dice...and when they stop rolling...it will be checkmate.

    the way it looks like it is unfolding is....tax time is where a pile of credit heads into the markets...increased volume for the insiders to sell into...the sell in may and go away effect....and they come back in September...October for the harvest...and if the harvest is good...there the markets will not collapse...but if the harvest is bad...they will collapse...down into the elections...which will supply conservatives with an ability to break free of the deadlock that congress has been in since 2009.

    and a cover point.

    beyond that is too speculative.

    But there is all sorts of chatter about June into July....june is the 6th month...the peak of summer...of absolute 1...the top of the seasonal cycle of input of power by the sun...from there it's the fall into late summer and the cross down into early fall...or September October.

    You all have lost track of the seasons and do not prepare for winter anymore...you all have been turned into digital electronic computerized game players so you all are easier to program the past 4 decades.

    your fragility is getting worse every year.

    20 years ago...I never heard people whine about winter like they do now...now...you all are like listening to the damned buring in hell.

    The last winter was the worst one yet...the bawling by all you babies was sickening beyond belief...I'm preparing from now to Oct...for the next winter...so I can isolate myself better from screams from the mud brick pits.

    you are becoming so weak...you can not survive on the planet you were born on...without massive life support.
     
  8. MlCHAEL

    MlCHAEL Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,554
    Likes Received:
    396
    Trophy Points:
    83
    you all are going to be force fed the wake up pill at some point...if you fight to the death refusing to take it.

    and when you are forced awake...you will be easily deceived by what you see.

    You have to wake up before the punch to the face...to avoid it.
     
  9. MlCHAEL

    MlCHAEL Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,554
    Likes Received:
    396
    Trophy Points:
    83
    The administration is a puppet show...The real or invisible order of power operates behind the graphical user interface of fantasy you all believe is reality.

    The top has the USA under complete control...the democrats and republicans...owned lock stock a barrel right down to the ideologies...all the propaganda from the left and right...is just written scripts for digital electronic computerized game players to follow.

    The USA is nothing more than a virtual reality TV show...the population is composed of brain dead jokes sleep walking to their self annihilation...they have been on this march to doom with glee for decades now...and if you try to stop them or point out what they have spent their whole lives doing...It upsets them an they want to kill you...so kiss them good bye.
     
  10. Aurumag

    Aurumag Dimly lit. Highly reflective Midas Member Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    7,234
    Likes Received:
    7,135
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Lightwave Jockey
    Location:
    State of Jefferson
    The mid-crash years of 2010-2012 were good for PMs, if the trend follows a similar pattern.
     
  11. MlCHAEL

    MlCHAEL Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,554
    Likes Received:
    396
    Trophy Points:
    83
    there was chatter that the insiders have been acquiring miners...since when equities begin collapsing...the yield from there has to go somewhere...bonds and commodities...like the blow off in 2008...and the gold market with the massive derivatives employed...is nothing more than a video game for children masquerading as adults to play in.
     
  12. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2013
    Messages:
    12,478
    Likes Received:
    12,056
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    GIM2 server bay #5

    Similar to the harbinger of 2014-2015.

    I have been convinced that Q3 2014 to Q4 2015 will be very interesting and we could see some major fireworks. A lot of things seem to have brought the water very close to a boil. The sheep are comfortable in the water as well.
     
  13. Brio

    Brio Midas Member Midas Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    6,612
    Likes Received:
    6,237
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Yield from collapsing equities? Don't bonds collapse when equities do? Then wouldn't commodities rise? But they aren't, bonds and equities are collapsing to 10 year lows. JPM owns 60% of all US gold derivatives some $65.4 billion (only $1 billion physical, the rest notional) how did they corner the GLD? I wonder at your metallagory of children gaming.

    Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2014

Share This Page