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How to fix the biggest investment mistake you don’t realize you’re making

Discussion in 'Real Estate & Other Investments' started by Goldhedge, Jul 12, 2017.



  1. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    How to fix the biggest investment mistake you don’t realize you’re making
    Simon Black

    July 12, 2017

    Budapest, Hungary


    Chances are, you’ve invested way too much money in your home country.

    And you’re not alone.

    Studies show that U.S. investors hold around 70% of their equity assets in U.S companies.

    But the U.S. only makes up around 55% of the world’s stock market value (U.S. stocks’ recent outperformance has massively boosted its global share). So, by that measure, a 70% allocation to U.S. stocks is “overweight,” if you want to be properly diversified.

    It gets worse…

    If you live in the U.S., chances are you own a home there. And your job is there. You also probably have all of your savings and investments parked at a U.S. bank. So your exposure to your home country is much, much greater than you think.

    Ask yourself… Could you withstand a turndown in the U.S. economy? Chances are you’d be devastated…

    You could lose your job. The value of your home could plummet. Your bank could fail. Your retirement accounts could drop in value by 20% or more.

    In other words, a lot can go wrong.

    The math gets even worse when you talk about bonds.

    Based on global bond market values, you should have about a third of your portfolio in foreign bonds. The typical American’s exposure is closer to zero.

    This investor behavior is known as the “home-country bias.” And it’s not just U.S. citizens. Investors all over the world are “overweight” their home country.

    Under normal circumstances, it’s never smart to put all your eggs in one basket. It’s far too risky.

    But the U.S. stock market is currently trading at all-time highs. And, regardless of which measure of value you choose, U.S. stocks are expensive.

    Let’s look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. This method was developed by famed economist Robert Shiller. And it compares current prices to average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation.

    It provides a more complete valuation picture than a simple price-to-earnings ratio. And today the S&P 500’s CAPE ratio is around 30.

    It’s only been that high at two other times in history — 1929, just before the huge crash, and the tech bubble of 2000.

    [​IMG]

    We’re not saying a market crash is right around the corner.

    Of course, it could be… We don’t know. But history shows what comes next usually isn’t pretty.

    Meanwhile, stock market volatility is near record lows… investors have never been so care free.

    Don’t let the second-longest bull market in history lull you into a false sense of security.

    You need to realize there are lots of risks out there today. And you need to get some money outside the U.S.

    You need a solid Plan B for when things go wrong.

    It’s simply not prudent to sit and do nothing.
     
  2. Silver

    Silver Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hence, gold and silver. Protection from bank failures, bonds, stocks, retirement accounts, etc. and you don't have to leave home.
     
    Hystckndle likes this.
  3. nickndfl

    nickndfl Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    I just heard about a great deal in Venezuelan bonds and Syrian condos.
     
    Usury likes this.
  4. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Bolivian Mining Stocks
     
  5. arminius

    arminius Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    jump on it, think of all the dough you can make...
     

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