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Hurricane Irma Watch.

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by mayhem, Sep 3, 2017.



  1. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    For all who are watching hurricane Irma, (I am as my house is partially torn apart) here is the BEST dang analysis of any hurricane I have ever found on the net. He details all the possibilities and with good solid information. I have been watching his reports for years now and he has always been spot on. Here is the link. Bookmark it now and for future use if you live in any possible storm area.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
     
  2. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Thanks. Watching thread.
    Our largest client put the entire SE on watch this last week.
    They, and all of us, are very interested in this one.
    I filled up the old van this morning.
    Gonna top off some more tomorrow.
    Ya never know.
    Andrew and Charlie both kinda meandered around and then..... it was like Garlits was driving.
     
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  3. Son of Gloin

    Son of Gloin Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Garlits. Had to look that up. Not into racing.
     
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  4. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Funny. Don was one of the three people who signed off on my NHRA Unlimited Fuel Licence at Englishtown NJ back in 1970, thus allowing me to drive anything from a AA/F dragster to a AA/F funny car. The two others were ole one eye Connie Colletta and Shirley Muldowney. I drove for only two years for a unknown owner named Jim Hardy. Good times with those crazy people. When I think back on it, and how crude the vehicles were because there wasn't much sponsor money in the game then. I owned and drove the A/F car below. 302 ci. Chev, 99% nitro, Lenco 2 speed overdrive, weight 960 lbs. wheelbase was 160 inches. Best time was 7.53 @ 203 mph. They do that now in Pro Stock. :-)
    This photo was taken in 1969 at Lebanon Valley Dragway in NY one early spring morning testing even before we sent the front end parts out to be chromed in case we needed to make changes.

    dragster.jpg

    My son owns J&M Motorsports and this pic shows him standing next to a car he sponsors,
    michael.jpg

    It's in the blood I guess.
    Thanks for the memory's Mr. Hystckndle
     
  5. itsamess

    itsamess Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Big Daddy Don Garlits has a nice museum in central FL.
     
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  6. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Don also introduced me to Burt (now deceased) who owned Casino Coin in San Fran. Burt also funded the Lew Rockwell web site. Don convinced me to get into Gold in the mid ninety's. Haven't seen ole Don in years, Tried a phone number I had a year ago or so and it was a dead end. Don't take all this name dropping to seriously, we were never great friends, just fellow travelers in drag racing circles for a few years, and I did take his advice on buying gold. Wiki doesn't say he has passed on so I guess he still lives up there in Ocala. He's ten years older than me so that would make him 85 now.
     
  7. nickndfl

    nickndfl Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Right now there are 3 paths impacting Florida and 20+ up the Atlantic coast into the Carolinas. Let's pray that is stays at sea because there will be massive damage.
     
  8. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Yeah I just watched Levi's report. All depends on which way the wind blows.
     
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  9. ttazzman

    ttazzman Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter

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    wow!!!.....on the three that signed your license no matter how you cut it
     
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  10. itsamess

    itsamess Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I have a younger brother who was a gear head back in the 70s. He worked at a speed shop in Palatine, IL by somebody named Gary Dranks (I think) and they serviced Pink Muldoneys engines as well as others when they came to places like Greatlakes. I was lucky my brother was able get a small block chevy conversion kit for my 71 Vega wagon as a teenager. Used to be fun to redface TransAM owners at stoplights. With Nickey Chevy in the area many teenagers were big on muscle cars back then. Brothers best friend had a Nickey 69 427 ZL1 Impala and that thing would fly. Different era.
     
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  11. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Talk about confusing. Here are some model tracks for Irma.
    [​IMG]
    Figure 4. The 20 track forecasts for Irma from the 0Z Monday, September 4, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. Image credit: CFAN.

    [​IMG]
    Figure 5. The 0Z September 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines). Image credit: CFAN.

    [​IMG]
    Figure 6. The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that have performed best with Irma thus far. Image credit: CFAN.

    It is unclear exactly why the modeled track shifted so dramatically on Sunday night, but the Monday morning (12Z) GFS run is very consistent with this shift, lending support to it. One piece of the puzzle is that the first Hurricane Hunter observations on Irma, gathered Sunday afternoon, were fed into the 00Z Monday runs. A raft of additional new data will be gathered on Monday and fed into upcoming model runs. This includes observations around Irma’s environment from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV, as well as extra radiosonde launches (weather balloons) that will sample the upper atmosphere at midday Monday (18Z) from 21 locations across the central U.S., where the upper-level trough expected to move offshore late this week will be taking shape. The model runs from 00Z Tuesday will incorporate the new data, so this will give us a much better sense of the steering currents guiding Irma and how those may evolve over the next week.

    Irma is still more than five days from any potential direct U.S. impacts, so there is plenty of time for residents along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast to make any standard preparations for hurricane season that haven’t yet been squared away. The Sunday night model runs suggest that the entire Florida peninsula will need to pay very close attention to Irma, but it remains possible that Irma will move further north along the East Coast, or it could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is strong model support for a north-northwest track once Irma makes its major right turn late in the week. The crucial variables will be how long it takes that turn to occur, how sharp the turn is, and whether Irma’s strength has been dented by interactions with Hispaniola and/or Cuba, as noted above.

    Bottom line: It is becoming more likely that Irma will move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba for significant impacts. There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
     
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  12. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    WOW, that's there is some farked up shit!
     
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  13. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    that turn gets later and later, and further west with every update.
     
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  14. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Don't know if you clicked on the link in the OP today but he explains as best that can be explained what is happening. He updates his site every night. Guess he day job is probably working for some weather forecasting outfit. He does the job without the fear mongering that TV weathermen do. Like Joe Friday, "Just the facts, mam'n, just the facts".
     
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  15. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Let the fear mongering begin!

    Florida Stores Running Out Of Water, Gas As Gov Warns "Make Sure Your Disaster Kits Are Ready" For Irma

    From Zerohedge.
    Bloomberg chief energy correspondent Javier Blas noted that the Hurricane has “shifted a lot further west,” and that, according to the latest forecasts, there’s still a small chance that Irma strikes the Gulf of Mexico, compounding the devastation that Harvey left behind.

    #Irma forecast has shifted a lot further to the west -- with some weather models suggesting a small chance (as today) of US GoM hit #OOTT pic.twitter.com/7ekw6gxEVW

    — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas2) September 4, 2017

    Here's what we know about Irma (courtesy of the Weather.com & NOAA):

    • The center of Irma is located 610 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west-southwestward at about 14 mph.
    • Irma is a Category 3 hurricane and satellite imagery shows that it has become better organized in the past day with an eye now clearly evident.
    • Low wind shear, increased mid-level moisture and ample oceanic heat content favor that Irma will remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) for the next several days, though some intensity fluctuations are likely.
    • One potential inhibitor of Irma maintaining its intensity would be if the hurricane's core interacts with land as it cruises westward near the Greater Antilles later this week.
    And Weather.com’s latest impact projections:

    [​IMG]
    • Leeward Islands: Late Tuesday-Wednesday
    • Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands: Wednesday-Thursday
    • Dominican Republic/Haiti: Thursday-Friday
    • Turks and Caicos: Thursday-Friday
    • Bahamas: Friday-next weekend
    • Cuba: Friday-next weekend
    • United States: Next weekend into early the following week
    NOAA satellites captured this stunning video of the sun rising over the hurricane on Monday:

    WATCH: @NOAASatellites loop shows sunrise this morning on Hurricane #Irma in the Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/YGFmvJtQoG

    — NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) September 4, 2017

    Hurricane watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands, including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. According to Weather.com’s latest long-term forecast, by next weekend, Irma will be immediately southeast of the US.

    [​IMG]

    At that point, jet stream dynamics will begin to turn it north. What happens after that will be critical in determining where – or whether – Irma lands in the US. Meanwhile, residents of southeast Florida – having spent the last week reading about the flooding in Houston – are understandably starting to panic.

    [​IMG]

    WPTV in West Palm Beach reports that Shelves of water at several stores were nearly empty Sunday, even as Irma’s path remains uncertain. Hardware stores are also running out of tanks of gas and other supplies.

    One distressed shopper told WPTV that one Walmart had run out of bottled water.

    “There was nothing at Walmart," said Bianca Rodriguez of Palm Beach Gardens. "Not even like one thing of water.”​

    According to WPTV, emergency officials recommend people have one gallon of water per person, per day for at least five days in the event of a hurricane. Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned that “disaster preparedness” should be a priority for every family in the potential path of the storm.

    One shopper said he bought the last remaining cases of bottled water at the Winn-Dixie in Palm Beach Gardens.

    “Rodriguez found cases of bottled water at a Winn-Dixie on Military Trail in Palm Beach Gardens Sunday night.

    ‘I lucked out. There’s only a couple left, but at least there was enough for me,’ said Rodriguez.”

    A Home Depot in Royal Palm Beach on Monday morning posted a sign that said they were short of some hurricane supplies.

    As we continue to monitor Hurricane Irma, families should make sure their Disaster Supply Kits are ready today. https://t.co/ymXjrTHewW

    — Rick Scott (@FLGovScott) September 3, 2017

    Let’s hope they have time to restock before next weekend…

    Well I'm in the process of residing my home. One 70' wall is just Tyveck right now. Don't know if I the guys doing the job can get the HardiePlank up before the weekend. I have plenty of material on site so I guess I'll be OK, but who knows. I'd be a lot better if I could do something myself. I hate the fact that I'm at the mercy of others. I'll stay for anything but a direct hit. I need oxygen and am confined to a power wheelchair, if a direct hit is imminent, I'll have to consider going to one of those "special needs shelters". Have to see if I have enough drugs to deal with that. On second thought I'm not going. Screw it.
     
  16. Usc96

    Usc96 Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Lowes was filled with storm watchers in SC earlier today.
     
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  17. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Idiots ... the taps are still working. Empty your recycling bin and fill your own damn bottles

    Mayhem, I didn't click it, as I wasn't referring to that guy's forecast alone. All the forecasts have been trending similarly. My one worry is that it'll manage to get under the southern edge of the jet stream and stall like Harvey did.
     
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  18. itsamess

    itsamess Silver Member Silver Miner

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    After living 20 years in FL, once a path is set for hurricanes they seem to follow the same, eg 2004 Jeanne, Charlie etc. If so then under FL Irma goes and into the Gulf. Not good for TX. Also Sept 10 is peak hurricane time.
     
  19. Mujahideen

    Mujahideen Black Member Midas Member

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    I won't be trying to make any more deliveries to hurricane stricken areas.

    May god help you guys.
     
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  20. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Yeah Prof. I've seen more than a few in the last 30 years here. When they come in like this one and turn north there is no safe place in the whole state.

    I really hope it turns north before it hits Fla. I have some friends in the Bahamas and they are really tired of hurricanes now that they get older. Same goes for me, it was fun when I was younger, now it's a real pita.
     
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  21. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Sams Club out of water SW Fl, CVS was out also of cases, had to pull the carb on my generator as the float was stuck, forgot to run it dry, up and running now, have plenty of water as Ive always kept 10 cases in the closet for shtf things. Filled up the extra gas cans too, trying to find some some drilling bolts for the window plywood, HD claimed they never heard of such a thing , had some dont recall what i did with them, will have to go to the fastenall store, lowes charging 18.00 for 2 gallon gas jug, gouging is in high gear, everyone out of generators already
     
  22. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Hey Prof. Agree totally.
    Garbage cans with construction grade can liners work great for water. Been doing that for years.
    Line them up on the patio and do it.
    Can store easy 300 gallons or so.
    :)
     
  23. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Yeah...just goes to show us..
    They talk an awful lot on msm but they really dont know where the f its gonna go.
    Same bat channel.
    At least the guy is talking sensibly in Mayhems OP.
    Hey May....
    Raining like the dickens here atm.
    Situation sure is feeling ripe for one to plow on through.
    Also...
    I vouch for the SNS units.
    Did 7 of those between GVille down to Ft Pierce with KBR.
    They havs a central warehouse stocked with an incredible amount of stuff to deploy.
    Back a lkttle later.
     
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  24. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Heck even your bathtub will hold what 50 gallons?
     
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  25. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Yeah. Exactly.
    And your water heater.
    Only prob I had with garbage cans b4 is the weight splitting the sides of the cheap ones.
    Liners kept it from being a blowout.
    Water...some comm, some snacks...good to go.
     
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  26. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I can see this being a full out panic after people watching the Houston stuff for over a week now.
     
  27. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Platinum Bling

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    I knew a good guy from Andrews, NC, long since RIP; had lived in FL like a lot of retirees but finally had enough. But the jury is still out on where this one heads. The threat and worry kill you faster than the reality sometimes.
     
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  28. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    I need some more bolts and wingnuts (about 100) for the bottom 'F-Track' that hold my panels in place. Been putting it off like a old fool. Went to HD's website and found them. The price was $5.98 for ONE bolt and wingnut! I called their 1-800 # and asked if that was the price for 12 or one. I was told one. So I went to Amazon and bought 10 packages of 12 count for $4.35 a package. Now will they arrive in time? If not I can have the guy's working on the house just nail the panels up, and worry about later as I'm replacing the windows anyway.

    So the price gouging has begun. I have plenty of 5/8 plywood sitting in the garage, maybe I'll sell it for $100 a sheet come friday. ;-)
     
  29. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    My pool is full, during charlie used it to bath and flush the toilets , kept the chlorine high, without power for 7 days on that one, had the generator to run the fridge and some lights though.
     
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  30. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    A few rounds of duct tape stops the bins from splitting.
     
  31. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    I have a well, so as long as my genset fires up I'm good. What I don't understand is why people don't install a RO unit under their kitchen sink. Really why buy bottle water when a suitable RO unit cost under $400.00. That's what we have, plus another 30 gallons of RO water in a drum to get me by. I can drink the well water straight for a couple of months without worrying.
    Let's see:
    5 full propane tanks,- check
    100 gallons of gas,- check
    A year's supply of food,- check
    2 Colman propane stoves,- check
    2 Adapters to charge small propane tanks from the 20lb. tanks,- check
    5 Lamp oil lamps and fuel,- check
    5 Battery powered Coleman Lanterns,- check
    200+ battery's assorted sizes, plus 50 rechargeable ones;- check
    8,000 Watt genset will surge to 1,250 if needed,- check
    1,000 Watt Coleman generator,- check
    2- 3,000 watt RV inverters in case I need to go to 12v,- check
    AK's, shotguns, and handguns w/ammo for all,- check
    2- 100 x 50 blue tarps,- check

    Did I forget anything?
     
  32. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Got lead??

     
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  33. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    10 4.
    At the time I used # 14 Solid wire.
    I use it to x brace my car canopies etc.

    ( save the tape and the shower curtain and the oil for my wife...why let good hurricane go to waste...ahahahahaha....I killing myself...ok...ill shut up lest you think I ve been hanging out wifh Nick.... )
     
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  34. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    About 100 pounds of wheel weights. Don't do a lot of reloading these days if that was what you were asking. All the rest has a copper coating on it.

    Edit: This shitty software keeps logging me out even when I click the 'stay logged in button'.
     
  35. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    @SF
    +- 100 buckets packed
    And loaded.
    Worked in the bunker today
    As far as lead...yeah...got 20k or so ...
    Need more peeps as operators is all but all good.
    Ex Marine who was with Schwartz in DS1 acrossnthe street.
    10 days outage Charlie here.
    Suprisingly civilized...
    The next one is where peepz got testy..lol...


    20170904_125625.jpg
     
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  36. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Hey Mayhem,
    We use Wurth and Fastenall.
    Figure you got the market cornered on that though being in the business.
    If ya run dry there on what you are looking for and can find something up here ill go and get it and overnight it to you if they cannot do it.
    Just saying.
     
  37. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Occupation:
    Slave, but a little less every day
    Location:
    Central Florida
    Local.Central Florida MSM now in arm flailing mode.
    BUT I just saw where waters are +1 to +1-1/2 deg warmer than usual....150 mph gusts.
    Theres the " D " Estes rocket fuel.
    The Garlits mode I reference..hah....Mayhem even knows the guy !
    Yucatan can have this one. It could pack some heat it could.
    This ll be an interesting week.
    Just gotta tone down the hype listening.
    Would totally suck if it got in the Gulf and drove a big surge in the shallower water in front of it.
     
  38. mayhem

    mayhem Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    Latest report from "Tropical Tidbits" is now posted.

    Summary for those who don't want to watch.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    And she's wound up to Cat 4. This is going to be bad
     
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  40. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Platinum Bling

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    It could be worse than Andrew.
     
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