1. Metals try to capitalize in market weakness with dollar weakness ie choppy
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  2. Good Thur Morning! Gold is down 1.3 to 1248. Silver is flat at 1757. Crude +16 to 4820. The USD is up 17 to 9964.
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  3. Week of 3/18/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1230.20-- UP 28.8 Silver $17.41-- UP 49 Oil $49.31-- UP 82 TICS USD $100.11 -- DOWN 100 tics Based on near term futures contract--- At JMB Current price AGE 2017 $1299.09 (1), SAE $20.54 (20)

III wave of gold/silver

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by d-lod, Jun 25, 2016.



  1. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    hey
     
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  2. glockngold

    glockngold Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dude...
    Long time no.
     
  3. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    had lots of failed turn around so lazily was sitting on sideline
     
  4. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dood to see you back d-lod.
     
  5. REO 54

    REO 54 Midas Member Midas Member

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    Nice avatar d-lod !
     
  6. REO 54

    REO 54 Midas Member Midas Member

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    So gold closes down on our chart yet on foxszooze it close up 9+. What gives ? Weird.....
     
  7. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    thanks buddy

    gold going to finish 38.20 retracment at 1380 soon
    siver could be a smarter bet, its just the premium that kills the profit
     
  8. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    yaa but your truck will be helpful to carry my physical silver and little gold ha...ha
     
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  9. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    savvydon

    great to be on bandwagon with you, so the third begins
     
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  10. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    19.36, 18.27, 17.38 AND 16.50

    are the level to be watched out for silver' reaction as to rise from 13.66
     
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  11. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Yes, and the more shallow the correction the more brisk the next leg up will likely be.
     
  12. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    Right on savvydon,

    I am waiting for first reaction to be completed, so as to be able to touch this wild beast 'SILVER', it so untamed, it fails every master. Last time i predicted uptrend of gold with authenticity,

    The 19.36 level is achieved so next waiting for 18.27. This time want to experiment with unpredictable SILVER more than gold.
    Looking forward to collective wisdom of GIM2.
     
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  13. Uglytruth

    Uglytruth Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Seems if one wanted to play you could buy on Monday after it's smashed down & sell on Friday. And you could short on Friday and sell on Monday after the smash.
     
  14. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    Yaa or just wait to finish the first Elliott wave to finish, because we are still in uncharted water.
     
  15. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Yesterday was an odd one for the PM market, silver in particular. I would have thought that the strong US jobs report would have accelerated the beat down that was already in progress. Instead silver turned around and raced upward. Next week should be interesting...
     
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  16. Uglytruth

    Uglytruth Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    To much uncertainty in the world. Gotta play the emotion card. Market up & G& S up......... everyone hedging their bets when the markets are closed.
     
  17. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    The market is traded by deep pockets for their gains. If small speculators are shorting they will rig prices up, if they are long it comes down.
    So the market is for those who are awake 24 hrs (has team members) are for physical fundamentalist having long term view.

    I will give you example of last two major waves in SILVER.


    MAJOR WAVE ONE
    (uptrend with wave two and four as correction)

    Wave I ...........4.00 – 8.43. Total + 4.43 = 110 %

    Wave II ..........8.43 – 5.43. Total - 3.00 = 36 %

    Wave III .........5.43 – 21.34. Total + 15.91 = 393 %

    Wave IV.........21.34 – 8.43. Total - 12.91 = 60 %

    Wave V ..........8.43 – 49.73. Total + 41.30 = 490 %



    MAJOR WAVE TWO (downtrend with wave two as correction)

    Wave I .........49.73 – 26.05. Total - 23.68 = 47.5%

    Wave II.........26.05 – 37. 50. Total + 11.45 = 44 %

    Wave III........37.50 – 13.63. Total - 23.87 = 63 %

    http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics1.htm

    From the above site, those who want to relearn EW, can visit it. there are only three basic laws of EW and i can assure at least one has been observed. I studied Alf Field, who is so far the best elliotisian according to many analyst for gold, but even his silver count could not be taken correctly. He projected price of 158 for last uptrend.

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/new-ew-silver-discovery

    [​IMG]

    His calculations were very correct following elliot wave theory to ditto, but it could not explain the present correction to 13+ and the timing. So I am taking what he labelled as Wave 1 of MAJOR THREE, as actually wave 5 of MAJOR ONE.

    That suggest we will be in MAJOR THREE, if the current uptrend play out to be UPTREND.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
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  18. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    You mean like this?

    screenshot_25.png
     
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  19. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    ... the 'beat' appears to have been taken as a ridiculous bluff. Maybe driven by the up coming election, maybe a market lead 'necessity' but it would seem that the only thing that has taken a 'beat down' is the BLS's creditability.

    I dunno, that is just from what I have managed to read so far.
     
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  20. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    Thanks savvydon

    Picture makes it so simple.

    As there are three rules as follow

    Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

    Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

    Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.

    Your above chart is fulfilling all three.
     
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  21. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Modal Operator/Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Was hoping for a picture... :2 thumbs up:
     
  22. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    GOT IT............. GOT IT......................Dude. I should have said chart............... hehe.

    The 23.60% retracment of the downish from 49+ to 13+ is 22.16, so it should go to 22.16, but 8 hourly is giving bearish MACD, and the bears may not like to relinquish so easily. Is Scorpio growling somewhere?
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2016
  23. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    the MACD are turning -ve in daily chart too.
     
  24. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    19.36, 18.27, 17.38 and 16.50 are Fibonacci level, while EW has its own story to tell, all this are calculated as per rules, but we are still in uncharted water of MAJOR THREE, if this is uptrend.


    21.36 – 19.20 = 2.16 - 10%

    19.20 – 20.67 = 1.47 - 7.5%

    20.67 –
    18.60 = 2.07 - 10%

    OR

    20.67 - 17.22 = 3.45 - 16.7%

    So the picture may clear on achieving this targets............of 18.60 / 17.22
     
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  25. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    That dang iffy thing is the fly in the ointment


     
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  26. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    sure it is all if...if ...if .......in life and so in metals..............
     
  27. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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  28. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    the level of 18.60 should be very near
     
  29. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    This is where the rubber meets the road, where the wheat separates from the chaff, the men from the boys, bears from the bulls...
     
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  30. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    Now the crossing of 21+ with stronger technical will means uptrend........................off-course after the reaction to fibo level.
     
  31. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I firmly believe this is on the way. Still, I wonder if there is any way to draw an Elliot wave chart showing that this years move from $13 to $21 was just some sort of dead cat bounce on the way back down lower? I don't think that is where we are, I just wonder if that argument can even be properly mapped...
     
  32. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    savvydon
    With EW ocilator and volume study it does suggest that it is not dead cat bounce, but for me, i am looking this reaction to go further down to emerge back with positive MACD and other technical.
     
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  33. d-lod

    d-lod dawn Silver Miner

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    17.22....................................target acheived
     
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