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Intra-Bank Lending begins to crash.

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by BarnacleBob, Feb 10, 2018.



  1. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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  2. <SLV>

    <SLV> Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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  3. <SLV>

    <SLV> Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Thanks for sharing this. I must admit this is astounding. (Why isn't this on the front page of CNBC?) It will be interesting to see what happens when they update the data with February's results.

    In looking at this I have a hard time seeing/understanding the impact of DotCom Bubble, 9/11, or The Great Recession (2008).

    (BTW... what is the significance of the shaded areas of the chart?)

    FRED _ St. Louis Fed - Internet Explorer.jpg
     
  4. <SLV>

    <SLV> Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Inevitable. It will be digital, and likely born out of the XDR (IMF Special Drawing Rights - SDR)
     
  5. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    You know, some of that debt is so toxic the FED is gonna have to unwind it off the coast of Somalia.
     
  6. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    The shaded areas on the FRED Charts indicate periods of recession.
     
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  7. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  8. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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  9. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    Let's look at the facts.

    Next month China challenges Team USA for global reserve currency when they formally open their oil futures brouse.

    Not since WW2, Bretton Woods has this happened.

    They WILL NOT ACCEPT AMERICAN DOLLARS!

    So, there you have it. Bingo.

    This will polarize the world the world into two camps, leading to another World War.

    Do we back China, whom produces EVERYTHING we use on a daily basis or Team USA that produces toxic debt that has ruined the financial system of the world?

    To the winner goes the spoils.

    Everything else is background noise, but I still would like to know the real reason intra-bank lending has all but dried up.

    Smells like Lehman 2.0
     
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  10. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Do you have this in a link? Next month? Wow. When that happens...IF China undercuts us, everyone will flock to them to save money and show their disdain for a Trump led America. I always wondered if Trump wasn't installed just as a tool to bring down any conservative platform in America and bring about long-lasting Dem/Prog/Marxist rule....
     
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  11. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    May not be so easy to get out of the dollar contract. In fact MOon of Alabama conversations even Russia uses more dollars than rubles. Because of the stability of the USD, the con has been fostered for decades, not one in a million can easily understand the con.

    Every time there is a currency crisis, say Venezuela, it's pay day for the USD, so much more is the USD value goes up against the native currency.

    My conjecture is that the USD has been far more successful and been more widely accepted than the pound sterling given that the world economy has been integrated much more in this century. The problem then becomes no one in the world would like their savings evaporate to support some unknown nascent fiat. The known devil is better than the unknown future.
     
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  12. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I guess they don’t want us to know anymore...?



    6DA50E86-1A59-479C-A30E-B63B5D8CACD9.jpeg



    C2D778F0-3C13-44A2-A081-876B3F504B2D.jpeg
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018 at 9:12 PM
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  13. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    That makes sense when taken into context of why the CIA tries to destabilize many nations - it's so that the elite can continue to prop up the dollar!!!
     
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  14. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  15. <SLV>

    <SLV> Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Economics is a "con" (confidence) game. Something only has value if people believe it has value (this goes for gold, also). The stock market is really a study in psychology. Why are declines twice as swift as rises? Because FEAR is twice the motivator that GREED is. All trading (technical -- charting) is based upon herd mentality. People want to be the first to BUY what everyone else will eventually buy, and they want to be the first to SELL what everyone else will eventually want to sell. The trick is to GUESS which way the herd is going to run... OR IS IT...

    Why predict the future (and "invest", or place your bets, accordingly) when you can CAUSE the future?

    The HERD must not be shown the interbank lending chart. Those who pull the puppet strings at the Fed are the same ones who pull the puppet strings with the MSM. That is why the herd never heard about it... and must not. Therefore even the non-sheep, conspiracy-theory, nut-job, gold-bug types must be prevented from having access to the data.
     
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  16. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    M3 Monetary Aggregate was discontinued prior to the 2007/08 GFC. The reason it was discontinued was because it was unveiling the huge RE bubble that was growing out of control.

    The Feds real job is to prevent the paper economy from ever returning to equalibrium. This is accomplished via throttling IR & commods.... A return to equalibrium would result in trillions upon trillions in funny money aggregates/substitutes vanishing into thin air.... Remember there is about $70 trillion dollar denominated credit/debt in play, of that the U.S. .gov has borrowed around $16tt.... but dont forget that Japan, China, England, Germany, etc. are also borrowing from the dollar denominated credit supply of $70 tt ..... How does the $ denominated credit supply grow? Its a function of bubble economics. Credit Cards, Mortgages, Student Loans, Auto Loans, Stock & Bond Markets, & WAR, etc. all play there respective parts in this continuously expanding & growing credit game thats played around the world.

    The biggest risk to the U.S. is when the U.S. consumer can no longer grow the debts by the required volumes... Then & only then COULD China possibly begin to replace dollar denominated credit when 1.4bb Chinamen begin applying for credit.... before that can happen, China must first build the inftrastructure & institutions to handle & manage the volumes..... The $ game is safe at least for the time being.

    Dont really know what the Fed is up to by discontinuing the Inter-bank lending, but I suspect its to cover-up the next move by the big banks to cannabalize the small banks & credit unions.... Which is easily accomplished by denying the small institutions to overnight & short term funding needs. A walk to the Feds discount window leads to a certain death.

    JMO

    s107077024101212055736457545247197.gif
     
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  17. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    @ SLV ..... The word economics grew out of post Napoleonic Wars around 1805. Napolean had amassed a great war chest of gold that he thought insured a defeat over England, as the Crown was illiquid & did not possess the money to fight the war. The Crown with no other alternatives began confiscating war materials from commerce & the general public. When they did this they issued a promisory note to the provider of the goods and/or services.

    To Napoleans surprise, he was defeated @ Waterloo.... For the first time in modern warfare a war was not won with money, but with resources.

    After the war the Crown could now repay commerce & the general public for the provisions that were confiscated. A system of repayment was installed.... the system became known as the economic system, and the persons that operated the system became known as economists. As these systems began spreading .govs realized they no longer needed specie money to defend their geographic boundaries, domestic & foreign interests. They realized they needed real resources.

    Thus "economy" is basically the defining of the amount of resources that can be directed from commerce & the general public into the .govs purse to achieve .govs operations, mandates & defense. Economics began to gain greater control around 1849 when Marx, etc. et al began proposing the centralization of resources by .gov. By this means .gov would hold the levers of production and would possess the first claim as sovereign on the production in times of war & national emergency.

    Once you understand the history, nature & etimology of the words "economy" & "economist" it sheds a new light on the likes of Paul Krugman, etc. et al.. Private economist now work to predict the future needs & confiscations of .govs to limit exposure or even wholey avoid these burdens. In many ways the Fed Reserve Board of Governors represents the council of centralized economists, as thru their actions they either decide or possess a tremendous influence upon general macro market activities & the financial & confiscatory resource policies of the U.S. .gov..... The words economy & economist have entirely new meaning when one understands how an economic SYSTEM was developed. Gold was no longer useful in the .gov planned centralized economies, so it was demonetized and replaced with fiat tokens. When we look under the hood, we find six of the seven faces of Karl Marx!!! But its hidden really well.... Secondly we can also understand why the Fed MUST perpetually keep the economy in a disequalibrium via bubbles & other monetary policies. They are directing resource exploitation & the production of semi & finished goods thru the "just in time" price system, etc....
     
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  18. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    So you think this may be just part of a move to monopolize the smaller banks? Could be.

    Credit is money and China is building that needed infrastructure:



    China is like a big ant colony. Someone gonna get rid of their queen bee before they spread over the whole back yard of the world.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018 at 1:45 PM
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  19. newmisty

    newmisty Duppy Conqueror Midas Member

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    :oriental:
     
  20. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    If I was guessing, and I am, I would put Chinas institutional growth & authority at about the same place the U.S. was in 1890.

    It requires some time for public institutions to gain hold, that said modern communications, computing, education & propaghanda are much faster now then they were back then. Thus one can easily speculate that Chin institutional growth & authority is on a fast track... even on a fast track its still gonna require 30 - 50 yrs before they can even consider replacing the $ system.... And I'm not so sure they actually want to replace the $ system, instead of just watching it erode away & die of its excesses & waste. At any rate its gonna be a while before they can legitimately challenge the Western Alliance & its military branch NATO. I think it would be a huge mistake to discount all of the social, political, economic & financial controls the Western Alliance uses & employs today.... which is exactly the controls that any serious challenger must create prior to challenging the Western Alliances reserve $ currency, etc.. Political bonds thru Military & Trade Treaties & Agreements require years of trust to be efficiently built & created ..... The Chins have a long way to go in all of these areas... IMO
     
  21. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    You should check into their recent advances. Over the last 30 years they've completely captured manufacturing. They are the only true creditor nation left on the planet. They've moved so many people up the ladder, there is no comparison even close throughout history. Over the last 10 years, there's been a pick up in their consolidation of power, their financial safety (both public and private sectors) and their agreements with other nations.

    They don't need to fight the West. They are going to win the game with money and with manufacturing. They invented paper money and know the art of war very well. They have actually already won, it's just the end game which is playing out.


    They don't spend half their budget on bombs, they spend it on bullet trains...

    List of high speed trains
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_high-speed_trains

    The 2 trains the USA has on that list run at half the speed of those in China and one is going to be a replacement for the other due in 2022.

    There is simply no comparison to what China has accomplished over the last 35 years. While the USA has allowed wealth and blood to be lost and the middle class to move into the lower class, China has moved hundreds of millions of people from poverty into a middle class.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018 at 4:25 PM
  22. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Hate to inform you, but the Chin miracle is & was built & constructed by Western finance, technology & resources... They essentially work for the Western Powers. If the western financial system cut them off, this would quickly send them back to a huts & rice paddy agrarian economy.... Indeed after decades of Mao, they had no capital, all of the capital they received came from them selling their souls & soles to the West....
     
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  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    amazing how few people actually understand that BB,

    but would instead prefer to keep trumpeting the nonsensical programming they are fed by others.
     
  24. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Maybe we did make them. I don't believe it but even if we did, that was then and this is now. They're already made.

    They sell less than 20% of their products to the USA. Their own consumption OF THEIR OWN manufactured products is growing. Our consumption of OUR OWN manufactured products has declined a lot over the last several decades. They can turn the tables on the financial system just the same way we could. I don't think anyone wants a nuclear option.

    If we cut them off, as you say, which I'm not sure what that statement really means, I bet they still will continue to do just fine. But of course that is just my opinion and since I'm not sure what you mean by cutting them off, I guess I could be wrong.

    They don't spend blood and treasure all around the world. They don't have trade deficits. They keep their gold and promote it to their own people. I'm not sure how those can be seen as things that we hold over them and are somehow advantageous for us not them. But I'm cool with agreeing to disagree. Please carry on...
     
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  25. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'm looking at results and the results I see are blood and treasure lost and a middle class in decline in the USA, something which I believe could have been turned around long ago.

    In terms of understanding what BB said, maybe he needs to point to a book on the subject I could read or maybe he could explain things in more detail. Because I don't see how we "own" them and he hasn't provided enough information to prove that.
     
  26. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    China has been owned by the Anglo-American "Establishment" since prior to the opium wars.... Read "Tragedy and Hope" by Carroll Quigley then get back with me....

    FB_IMG_1518642167775.jpg
     
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  27. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    Looks like you have this all fingerd out, BB? And your argument seems tight.

    So, next World War?

    Any theory on this subject?
     
  28. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I dont think or believe there is gonna be another world war that mimics WWI & WWII. We will see regional & low intensity conflicts, but no more "all out wars." I say this because WWI & WWII were conflicts between the major powers of western civilization battling over the supremecy to rule the civilization. Outside nations & civilizations that had trade & political ties with the warring western powers were dragged into the conflict because of political association & trade alliances, etc..... Today, the west is led by the universal empire of the United States. Western civilization has unified into a single political, economic, financial & most importantly a stron military alliance. The west has also made political, trade & military alliances with various outside nations of various civilizations, for instance Japan (Asian Civ), Saudi Arabia & Turkey (Islam Civ) & also former Soviet bloc nations (Orthodox Civ), etc.... There are no contenders to stand up to the economic & military powers of the west now or anytime in the near future. Hence the chances of a WW among the great civilizations are very low.

    As for China, IMO the Western powers financed & technically supported the rise of world production & jobs to China for various reasons.... The world sends their raw ore & unfinished goods to mainland China to be smelted, refined & finished. Thus mainland China & its labor force is fully exploited environmentally as these economic activities leave behind all kinds of environmental waste & poisons.... air, water & land pollutions while North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa & their peoples are exempt from the toxic wastes & health damages concomittent with a global manufacturing base. In many ways the West has declared a low intensity war with China by exporting global production into their political & geographic jurisdiction. The Chin population will experience rising rates of cancer & various diseases as the toxic pollutants spread across their lands & waters.

    A most interesting phenomena has been learned considering civilizations, namely that "expansion prevents contraction." Once contraction begins it spells the inevitable end of that civilization... thus we can observe western policy makers always engineering outside nations to join the western civilization system. This was what occured in Japan post WWII & has been the ongoing policy of the west to gradually bring new players into an alliance with the western system..... Which is precisely why the $ remains stable... Once a nation & its leaders join the $ club its almost always in their best interest to preserve its use as THE reserve currency if they want to perpetuate a rising standard of living to remain in political power.

    There is much more I could point out, but my point is that there isnt much credibility to most of the propaghanda predicting doom for tbe west.... the west remains very strong & continues to grow stronger.... "Who can make war with the beast?" No one at this time!
     
  29. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Does the U.S. & western civilization have problems? Indeed we d.... the absolute power of the west has been its uncanny ability to quickly & efficiently solve problems as it grew & grows. Consider the problems faced today by Islamic, Orthodox, Asian & African civilizations, societies, cultures & their established institutions. Now consider the problems face by the western $ bloc nations.... Western problems are minute compared to the problems & ideologies of all the other remaining civilizations...... My bet is on the Western nations.
     
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  30. Area51

    Area51 Silver Miner Seeker

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    Lots of manufacturing has been offshore driving to China and the quality has decreased significantly. I've seen the issues with it first hand in both automotive and aerospace.
     
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  31. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    Come on, BB. We come here for the doom and the GLOOM.

    Surely there has to be some cinch in the Beast's Armor we can exploit?

    I read over at ZeroHedge, then heard it again on some economics post that the FED injected $11 billion into the banking system last week.

    Powell got a look at that first week of DOW dipping and pulled out his syringe REAL QUICK.

    Shoot me up, AL
    [​IMG]

    Yeppers, it was "Panic in Needle Park" for Jerome Powell last week. No way can they stop QE.
    Once a junkie... :zombie:

    So as long as they can print money without hyperinflation it's game on? And they do a great job of it.
     
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  32. Area51

    Area51 Silver Miner Seeker

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    Seems impossible to continue pumping so much new money into the system without hyperinflation eventually kicking in.

    I'd prefer hyperinflation much more than I'd prefer deflation.
     
  33. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Seems rather amazing to me that anyone would even begin questioning the U.S. universal empire of the West when its universal CB can politically, economically & financially issue $16+ trillions instant credit on demand AND the political branch can at the same time conduct over $4+ trillions in various domestic stimulus schemes.... AND nothing crashed or collapsed after these events..., but was rather absorbed into the system to facilitate another round of economic growth & expansion..... Now thats quite impressive !!!! Why would anyone bet against this monopoly cartel unless they are fools???
     
  34. Cigarlover

    Cigarlover Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Is this alliance really that strong or does it just have the appearance of strength in the US propaganda networks? I almost never hear of any other nation making any advances against terrorism except the US and Russia. Most other countries have very few troops in the game and hem and haw over contributing to the US war machine and paying their nato dues. I do think the "Alliance is a one way street for the most part. The US war machine will go anywhere it's needed. The rest of the alliance? I'm not so sure they will do much unless they are directly attacked. I suppose we could test that pretty easily. We have been over run on our southern border. somewhere between 10 and 20 million illegals in the US already.. By any standards thats an invasion although war has never been declared. I wonder would our allies send us a few hundred k troops to help protect our southern border? Since we can't have foreign troops on US soil, how about our troops come home and protect the border and the rest of the alliance sends troops to the ME.
    Another problem I see with the alliance is Europe is overrun with terrorists, I mean refugees from the ME, lots of them or most of them muslim.. Not sure how thats going to play out in the future but once they make their way into the armed services over there I would imagine it's going to be difficult to get them to betray their real homeland.. Just a guess though..
    One other issue I see is the US just wastes money on the war machine. The F35 and some of these new high tech ships are a great example. I've never read anything great about the F 35 and from what I can tell, all these new ships are just as vulnerable as the old ones. A missile or 2 and they are reef building material. They look kool and some natives on bora bora probably think aliens have landed but with all their advanced gear they still can't avoid a ship collision with a cargo ship.
    In contrast how many fighters or warships can China build for the same money? Lower input costs across the board and a huge manufacturing base makes it kinda easy to catch up. Doing a quick search it appears that the Chinese J 20 is about 1/3 of the cost of the f35. It can also outmaneuver the f35 and the missiles the f35 carry are kinda obsolete since they can be jammed pretty easily. Just a huge waste of money on the part of the US.
    All of that probably doesn't matter as long as there is no major conflict. Looking at where the US has bases though, if I were Russia and China I would certainly be concerned. They are pretty much surrounded at this point. On the other hand, China has 1.3 billion people. Thats a shitload of bullets, bombs or whatever you want to throw at them. Imagine if we could take all of the US and Canadian population, land them on Chinas border and send them in to fight. After we are all killed they still have a billion people left over. They just have a staggering number of people. Of course wars aren't fought like that. If we ever did go for China it would have to be with Nukes.

    I think your pretty much spot on with the rest of your stuff BB. I do think the US absorbs inflation through inflated military gear, welfare and social programs. I don't see any of that stopping anytime soon and in fact I think thats why they are talking about a minimum monthly stipend for everyone. Gets the system growing even more and as long as everyone is keeping up, more or less, no large group will complain enough to make a difference.
     
    BarnacleBob likes this.
  35. Area51

    Area51 Silver Miner Seeker

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    Lots of good points but I disagree with the comment about having to go nuclear in any war with China.

    In the event of a real war - - not the phony charades currently going on in the Middle East - - I don't see nuclear as a great option. The enemy is going to be aware of an incoming missile and could intercept. And of course there'd be retaliatory nuclear strikes made. Assuming there's a side that survives, what's the quality of life going to be when the planet is glowing?

    Biological would seem to be far more effective. With a high grade strain of something ultra contagious like ebola, there's no warning until it goes viral and by then it's too late to do anything. You'd need a few dozen agents willing to go on a suicide mission and infect themselves once they've infiltrated the country, but all they'd need to do would be to walk around the subway or sports events coughing, sneezing and slobbering. The high population would be actually work against them.
     

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