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R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 3rd Ed., Vol.11 ~ March 13th - 17th

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Mar 12, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    TVR [#317] 03-15-2017 END OF DAY REPORT - GOLD MINERS SHINE GDXJ ON FIRE
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Mar 15, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs On "Dovish" Fed, Dutch Vote

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Mar 16, 2017 6:50 AM


    World stock indexes soared to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening. European and Asian were broadly higher this morning, with S&P tagging along, driven by two main events: the latest "dovish" Fed rate hike, and the Dutch election results, in which Geert Wilders performed worse than some expected, reducing concerns of Eurozone political risk, and broadly seen as a sign of support for Europe's establishment.

    As a result, the MSCI world equity index which tracks shares in 46 countries, jumped 0.7% on the day to reach an all-time high, as yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries tumbled the most since last August.

    "It was a well-prepared hike, and when you consider the fact that Yellen and Co kept the outlook for growth and inflation largely unchanged, I would call this a dovish hike," said DZ Bank analyst Rene Albrecht, in Frankfurt.

    A quick recap of the Fed's announcement, starting with the dots, where the median 2017 and 2018 dots were left unchanged at 1.375% and 2.125% respectively. The longer term dot was also left unchanged at 3% while the only shift was the small increase in the median 2019 dot to 3% from 2.875%. However it is worth highlighting some of the finer details of the moves in the dots. Four of the seven below-median dots for 2018 have now moved up to the median. For 2017, previously six members expected less than 3 hikes and now only three members expect such. Five members still expect more than 3 hikes which means that the number of members expecting 3 hikes has increased from six to nine. So this suggests a stronger consensus view this year.

    With regards to Yellen's press conference one of the first things the Fed Chair said was that by tightening this month, the move does not reflect a reassessment of the economic or policy outlook, while noting the minor changes in the economic projections. At the same time she also sought to highlight that the "simple message is the economy's doing well" and that "we have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks". There was little new on the potential impact of fiscal policy with Yellen reiterating that there is still plenty of uncertainty and that no decisions can be based on that for now. The addition of the "symmetric" comment was also brought up in Q&A with Yellen acknowledging that inflation could shoot above 2% temporarily but that the Fed is not targeting such. Indeed she made mention to the fact that 2% is a target rather than a ceiling. Finally on the balance sheet there was little new, rather reiterating that it is an issue still under discussion.

    Switching over to Europe, it was all about the Dutch election, where after having counted 93.5% of votes in the Netherlands election, PM Rutte's VVD party is to win 33 seats, Wilders' PVV is at 20 seats, while CDA and D66 parties are to win 19 seats each. Subsequently, this shows a strong win for PM Rutte's VVD party while the far-right, pro-Nexit PVV failed to meet projections. However, the PvdA (Labour Party and potential VVD coalition partner) underperformed with seats falling from 38 in 2012 to around 9 this time round. The read through from the Netherlands to France has been negative for the anti-establishment Marine Le Pen, whose overall odds of winning the French election are back under 30% for the first time in over a month.

    [​IMG]

    The Dutch vote helped Amsterdam's AEX stock index climb to its highest level in more than nine years, while both Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 hit their highest levels since mid-2015 as fears eased that the euro zone was heading inexorably towards a break-up.

    "Some of that fear around Brexit, Trump, and then Wilders and Le Pen, may now be seeping out of the markets - you see some of that fear dissipating," said Arne Petimezas, analyst at AFS Group in Amsterdam, referring to far-right French presidential Marine Le Pen.

    In addition to the Dutch elections, which were generally favorable for the European status quo, it was central banks that once again ruled over financial markets, as the Fed's move to raise interest rates without accelerating the timeline for future tightening sent global stocks jumping as Bloomberg notes. The dollar steadied after Wednesday’s losses while Treasuries slipped back after a two-day surge.

    Rallies from Seoul to Jakarta pushed the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest since mid-2015, while European shares rose a second day. Hong Kong stocks jumped the most since May as China followed the Fed in raising rates. The yen edged higher after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda failed to offer forward guidance on what would trigger a rate hike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries returned above 2.50 percent after plunging Wednesday, while gold and oil extended gains.

    [​IMG]

    Yesterday's key event was the Fed which raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. U.S. equities extended gains as Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference that the “simple message is the economy is doing well.” Investors anticipated the tightening and Treasury yields had climbed with the dollar on speculation the central bank might signal a faster pace of tightening. Those trades unwound late Wednesday in the U.S. as the Fed indicated it hasn’t fallen behind with its efforts to keep inflation in check.

    “The Fed did a good thing as they signaled they will raise rates without destroying global equity markets,” said Norihiro Fujito, a Tokyo-based senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. “The Fed’s outlook hasn’t changed much from where they were in December, but the markets had gone overboard with rate hike expectations.”

    In addition to the Fed, overnight there were decision from the BOJ, SNB and Norway's central bank:

    BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.10%. The BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain yield curve control with Sato and Kiuchi the dissenters. Kiuchi proposed BoJ state that inflation to be extremely slow which was defeated by 8-1 vote. BoJ maintained 10yr JGB yield target at around 0% and kept pledge to buy JGBs around current pace so that holdings rise JPY 80TN annually. BoJ also maintained its assessment that economy continues to recover moderately as a trend. Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision -0.75% vs. Exp. -0.75% (Prey. -0.75%)

    The SNB stated CHF remains significantly overvalued, outlook for Swiss economy is cautiously optimistic and the central bank will continue to remain active in FX markets as necessary. The Norges Bank likewise kepd its interest rate at 0.5% in line with expectations.

    Meanwhile, China’s central bank raised borrowing costs as a stable economy and factory reflation give it scope to follow the Fed. The People’s Bank of China increased the rates it charges in open-market operations and on its medium-term lending facility.

    The biggest recipient of the overnight risk on sentiment has been Europe, where initially, both the Euro and European bonds followed equities higher, with the spread between French and German 10Y bonds collapsing to the lowest since January...

    [​IMG]

    ... however as the European trading session progressed, the Euro faded some of its gains, which French bonds erased the strong open and German bonds slid as the Dutch election prompted an improvement in risk appetite, while the overall move was supported by yesterday’s dovish Fed outlook shift. No material follow through buying seen in France, with some investors still apprehensive over election risks, said a trader quoted by Bloomberg. In Germany, Bund futures fell, with the 10-year yield rising 4bps from the open, before bouncing from support at 159.66-60; swap spreads tighten acorss the curve, credit spreads tighter by 7bps and EuroStoxx 50 rises 1%

    In equities the story was diferent, with the German DAX powering higher, up 1%, and fast approaching its lifetime high of 12,156 on what can be best described as euphoric sentiment from yesterday's events.

    [​IMG]

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7 percent as of 10:25 a.m. in London. The gauge is trading at the highest level since December 2015.

    In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed to the highest since mid-2015. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped more than 2 percent, the most since May, as China followed the Fed in raising rates. Japan’s Topix reversed an early loss after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped the most since July, with benchmarks in Indonesia and Malaysia soaring more than 1.2 percent. The Australian dollar and kiwi slipped amid disappointing reports on unemployment and gross domestic product.

    Futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.3% after the benchmark gauge rose 0.8% to 2,386.75 on Wednesday, the highest level since reaching a record on March 1.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,386.75
    • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $52.53/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,225.30
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 100.64
    • U.S. 10Y yield 2.5257%, up 1.31%
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 376.73
    • MXAP up 1.5% to 147.86
    • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 477.54
    • Nikkei up 0.07% to 19,590.14
    • Topix up 0.09% to 1,572.69
    • Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 24,288.28
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,268.94
    • Sensex up 0.5% to 29,542.85
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,785.79
    • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,150.08
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 0.432%
    • Euro down 0.2% to 1.0718 per US$
    • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $52.53/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 2.302%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to 1.809%
    Top Overnight News
    • Dutch Liberals Defeat Wilders’s Party in Blow to Populist Surge
    • Oil Extends Advance as U.S. Stockpiles Drop First Time This Year
    • China’s Central Bank Raises Borrowing Costs in Step With Fed
    • GoPro Camera Maker Cuts Jobs Again in Search of Profit
    • Costco’s Private-Label Booze Helps Warm Spirits During Dry Spell
    • Blackstone Said to Put Sime Darby Singapore Property on Sale
    • Chevron CEO Sells $13.8 Million in Personal Company Shares
    • Japan Carmakers Will Consider U.S. Policies Seriously: Saikawa
    • Lufthansa Says Fare Slide to Slow as CEO Seeks Further Cost Cuts
    • Swatch Sees Rebound in U.S., Europe as Watch Sales Improve
    In Asian markets, stocks traded mostly higher as the region reacted to the dovish-perceived FOMC where the Fed hiked rates as expected, but kept projections mostly unchanged and Fed chair Yellen commented that the economic outlook is highly uncertain. This initially supported the ASX 200 (+0.2%) with mining names outperforming following a rally in commodities, although weakness in financials slightly clouded sentiment. Upside in Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was limited by a firmer currency, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) and Hang Seng (+1.5%) benefitted after the PBoC upped its liquidity injection to CNY 80bIn and announced a CNY 303BN Medium-term Lending Facility. 10yr JGBs tracked gains in T-notes as global yields decline post-FOMC dovish FOMC, while the curve flattened amid underperformance in the short-end. As noted last night, the PBoC conducted a CNY 303BN 1yr Medium-term Lending Facility at 3.2% and injected CNY 20bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 40bIn in 28-day reverse repos, with the 7-day, 14-day and 28-day offer yield raised by 10bps each to 2.45%, 2.60% and 2.75% respectively. PBoC stated that the change in rates on reverse repos does not equate to a change in monetary policy and reflects market changes, while it added that there is no need to over interpret monetary tools actions.

    Top Asian News
    • Samsung’s New S8 Said to Adopt Facial Recognition for Payments
    • Hong Kong Stocks Jump to 2015 High as Fed, China Energize Bulls
    • Chow Tai Fook Adds Australia Power Firm to Property, Jewelry
    • BOJ Stays the Course With Policy Unchanged After U.S. Rate Hike
    • Top Indonesia Nickel Miner Seeks to Export 6 Mln Tons of Ore
    • Hedge Funds’ Lost Alpha Sends $750 Million Fund as Far as Seoul
    • Japan Government Denies Claim Abe Donated to Scandal-Hit School
    European bourses trade higher after the FOMC rate decision and Dutch election result. Materials outperform after yesterday's aftermarket reports that an Indian business tycoon is looking to invest GBP 2bIn in Anglo American, this led shares to trade higher by 11% at the open. Elsewhere, Sainsbury's shares fell after a disappointing trading update in which like-for-like sales, which strip out new stores, fell by 0.5% in the period to 11 March. Bund weakness was put down to supply this morning, with several dealers stating they have not seen too much in the way of selling despite a 1/2 point fall at the open. Also of note today, OAT's saw some relief in early trade after some analysts noted following the Dutch elections it makes sense to sell German bonds to hedge non German supply.

    Top European News
    • Volkswagen Is Proving More Reliable in Court Than on the Road
    • European Car Sales Growth Cools as VW, PSA Lose Market Share
    • Bunds Slide as Election Premium Unwinds; Investors Fade UST Move
    • Hexagon Says Rollen to Remain CEO Even as Norway Indicts Him
    • Behind Trump’s Russia Romance, There’s a Tower Full of Oligarchs
    In currencies, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed to the highest since mid-2015. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped more than 2 percent, the most since May, as China followed the Fed in raising rates. Japan’s Topix reversed an early loss after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped the most since July, with benchmarks in Indonesia and Malaysia soaring more than 1.2 percent. The Australian dollar and kiwi slipped amid disappointing reports on unemployment and gross domestic product. Much of today's FX price action has been a continuation of yesterday's post FOMC sell off, where USD bulls were clearly looking for a little more hawkishness from the Fed. That Kashari dissented and voted for no change compounded the unchanged dot plot reaction, but given prospective yield differential widening ahead. USD dip buyers have not been put off. USD/JPY has tested below 113.00 and has run into fresh demand, but looking to the 2 weeks ahead, traders best be wary of sporadic JPY buying/repatriation into Japanese year end (31 March). 111.50-115.50 looks to be the near term range ahead, with the unchanged BoJ policy stance also supportive of the pair. Gains in EUR/USD saw 1.0700 taken out last night, but 1.0750 has been rejected so far despite some modest relief from the Dutch election outcome. Nevertheless, range limits likely to be test on the upside should we negotiate the French elections in the same way, with a more neutral stance at the ECB underpinning the spot rate well ahead of 1.0500 it seems.

    In commodities, in the wake of the FOMC last night, where some describe the outcome as a 'dovish hike', the USD has pulled back across the board, and this has had natural consequences for commodities across the board. Gold and Silver have clearly been revived on the tight correlation with Treasuries, as risk sentiment is having less of a factor, and would be negative in any case under the current circumstances. Gains in base metals have been led by copper as the strikes in Chile look to have taken a turn for the worse, pushing prices further towards USD2.70 — trading session highs at present just shy of USD2.68. Oil prices have moved higher with WTI eyeing a move on USD50.00 again, with this week's EIA drawdown adding to the near term positive backdrop perpetuated by last night's USD weakness.

    Looking at the day ahead, data due out includes February housing starts and building permits, the latest weekly initial jobless claims print, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for March and the BLS JOLTS report for February. Away from the data the ECB's Praet is due to speak again, the SNB are due to also make their latest policy decision and finally President Trump is scheduled to outline his (skinny?) fiscal 2018 budget.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.26m, prior 1.25m; MoM, est. 1.4%, prior -2.6%
    • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.27m, prior 1.29m; Building Permits MoM, est. -1.94%, prior 4.6%
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 243,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.05m, prior 2.06m
    • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 30, prior 43.3
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 50.6; Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 50
    • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 5,562, prior 5,501
    * * *

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight event-heavy wrap

    You might want to make sure you've got your morning coffee within reach as there is no shortage of things to get through in today's EMR with a highlight reel that includes the Fed, BoJ, China and Dutch election and a final comment about how Governments are ever going to see balanced budgets again after the UK's tax raising U-turn yesterday.

    There is only one place to start though and that is with the Fed. As expected a 25bp hike was delivered on the back of a 9-1 majority vote with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari the lone dissenter in favour of keeping rates on hold.

    There were much more interesting snippets to come out of the summary of economic projections, statement and Yellen's press conference however. Starting with the dots, the median 2017 and 2018 dots were left unchanged at 1.375% and 2.125% respectively. The longer term dot was also left unchanged at 3% while the only shift was the small increase in the median 2019 dot to 3% from 2.875%. However it is worth highlighting some of the finer details of the moves in the dots. Four of the seven below-median dots for 2018 have now moved up to the median. For 2017, previously six members expected less than 3 hikes and now only three members expect such. Five members still expect more than 3 hikes which means that the number of members expecting 3 hikes has increased from six to nine. So this suggests a stronger consensus view this year.

    Next up is the press statement and there were a few interesting subtle changes in wording. The biggest takeaway for us is the addition of "symmetric" in the passage concerning "the committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal". That seemed to prompt plenty of debate and added some contention that the Fed is happy letting inflation run past its 2% target for a while or in other words letting the economy run a little hot. Another important addition was that of the "sustained" reference in the mention of the "the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labour market conditions and a sustained return to 2% inflation". This had previously been "a return to 2% inflation". The other thing to highlight from the statement was the dropping of the reference to improvements in consumer and business sentiment.

    With regards to Yellen's press conference one of the first things the Fed Chair said was that by tightening this month, the move does not reflect a reassessment of the economic or policy outlook, while noting the minor changes in the economic projections. At the same time she also sought to highlight that the "simple message is the economy's doing well" and that "we have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks". There was little new on the potential impact of fiscal policy with Yellen reiterating that there is still plenty of uncertainty and that no decisions can be based on that for now. The addition of the "symmetric" comment was also brought up in Q&A with Yellen acknowledging that inflation could shoot above 2% temporarily but that the Fed is not targeting such. Indeed she made mention to the fact that 2% is a target rather than a ceiling. Finally on the balance sheet there was little new, rather reiterating that it is an issue still under discussion.

    Leading into the Fed, on balance it felt like expectations were tilted more for a more slightly hawkish hike than anything and instead we ultimately had Yellen reaffirm that there is no change in the Fed's thinking of the economic or policy outlook. Indeed DB's Peter Hooper made the point that it felt like the Fed was seemingly striving not to heighten market expectations of any additional rate hikes.

    Over in markets the most eye catching moves post the Fed came in rates. 10y Treasury yields rallied 10.7bps to close at 2.494% and had their strongest day since June last year. 2y yields were also 7.7bps lower at 1.299% and back to the lowest level since March 1st. Given that the Fed acknowledged that they are happy letting the economy run hot and let inflation go above 2% for a while, the sharp re-pricing lower in rates suggests that there was a lot of emphasis on the fact that the dots didn't move and expectations were clearly high. EM bond yields were also sharply lower with hard currency yields in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico between 15bps and 22bps lower. The Dollar index tumbled -0.94% and weakened by the most since January 5th. EM FX was the biggest beneficiary with currencies in the likes of South Africa (+2.89%), Mexico (+2.34%) and Brazil (+2.11%) leading the way. The Aussie (+1.99%) and Kiwi (+1.83%) Dollar led the way for the G10. US credit had a bumper session with CDX IG 4bps tighter while in equities the S&P 500 (+0.84%) had its third strongest session this year. Again EM was the big outperformer though with the likes of the Brazilian Bovespa up +2.37%. The biggest takeaway from the moves in commodities was Gold (+1.73%) which rallied by the most since the UK Brexit referendum.

    So with the Fed out of the way the focus has temporarily deviated over to the BoJ where the latest monetary policy meeting outcome was out this morning. Like the Fed there was no surprise on the policy front with the BoJ keeping rates at current levels and maintaining the current pace of asset purchases. It also made no change to targeting the 10y JGB yield at around 0%. The Yen has barely blinked following the move and is hovering around 113.40 while 10y JGB yields are at 0.065% and about 1.5bps lower. The Nikkei is currently +0.15%.

    That's not all to report in Asia this morning however with the other significant news coming from the PBoC with the announcement that the Bank has increased borrowing costs on 7, 14 and 28 day reverse repo agreements by 10bps each. This follows a similar mini hike back in February. The PBoC were quick to mention that the mini hikes reflect market conditions rather than a change in policy. The Shanghai Comp (+0.66%), CSI 300 (+0.41%) and Hang Seng (+1.17%) were already higher prior to the news and have generally consolidated gains.

    Finally, it's taken us a while to get there but the current situation in the Dutch election is that, after 93% of votes counted, the Liberal Party is on track to take 33 seats in the 150-seat lower house. The Freedom Party is on track to take 20 seats with the Christian Democrats and D66 parties on 19 seats each. That outcome for Wilders' Freedom Party is slightly worse than what opinion polls had suggested and it's expected that the Liberals will start the process of putting together a coalition today. One would expect the European session to see some relief that populism doesn't always out-perform and expectations of a Le Pen shock fade further for now.

    Moving on. Yesterday was also a busy day for important US data releases. Indeed the most important of all was the February inflation data where we learned that headline CPI rose +0.1% mom and a little ahead of the 0.0% expected by the market. That puts the YoY rate at +2.7% now and up two-tenths from January. Meanwhile the core rose +0.2% mom, matching the consensus however due to base effects the annual rate slipped one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. Elsewhere, headline retail sales were reported as rising +0.1% mom in February and the core ex auto and gas print was reported as rising +0.2% mom. Both prints were in line with the market while we also got some upward revisions to the already strong January sales data. Away from that empire manufacturing printed at 16.4 for March which is a little ahead of expectations (15.0 expected) but down from 18.7 last month. Finally the NAHB housing market index jumped 6pts to 71 and the highest since June 2005. All told the Atlanta Fed is now forecasting GDP growth of 0.9% in Q1 which is down from the 1.2% estimate on Friday. That forecast continues to fly in the face of that from the NY Fed which as of Friday, was pegged at 3.2%. So a huge divergence still between the two GDP trackers.

    Closer to home yesterday and ahead of the BoE meeting this afternoon, the UK's latest employment indicators painted a slightly mixed picture. In the three months to January the ILO unemployment rate fell one-tenth to a new low of 4.7% while the claimant count also continued to fall in February. Wages growth was softer than expected however with average weekly earnings only climbing +2.2% yoy in January versus +2.6% in December. Expectations was for +2.4%. Meanwhile in France headline CPI in February was revised up one-tenth to +0.2% mom.

    Staying with the UK, the Chancellor yesterday made a remarkable U-turn over a policy in last week's budget to increase taxes on self-employed people. On a macro angle one wonders how on earth you're ever going to balance the books when any tax rise is reversed a week later. As we said last week the UK still forecasts an annual budget deficit out to 2021 (at least) which will make it 20 in a row. The graph from last Thursday's EMR showed that the UK is by no means alone on this. Government deficits are now so ingrained in our way of life it's hard to remember that through most of peace time history before the last 40 years budgets were pretty much always balanced.

    Looking at the day ahead, there's another reasonably full diary ahead of us. In Europe this morning the early data will be the final February CPI revisions for the Euro area. After that all eyes turn to the BoE meeting around midday. As a short preview, DB's Mark Wall is expecting the BoE to maintain its neutral bias. At the margin, global growth and fiscal policy may be more supportive of the UK economic recovery than expected in February. However, evidence of the real income shock on household consumption is beginning to appear and there is no need for the BoE to front run the triggering of Article 50. As such the MPC can afford to leave the monetary policy stance unchanged until it updates forecasts again in the May inflation report.

    Over in the US this afternoon data due out includes February housing starts and building permits, the latest weekly initial jobless claims print, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for March and the BLS JOLTS report for February. Away from the data the ECB's Praet is due to speak again, the SNB are due to also make their latest policy decision and finally President Trump is scheduled to outline his (skinny?) fiscal 2018 budget.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/global-stocks-soar-record-highs-dovish-fed-dutch-vote
     
  4. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: March 16

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Mar 16, 2017 8:00 AM

    • Fed's 'dovish hike' sends shares to record highs, dollar dips (Reuters); Markets Rally After Fed Rate Increase Decision (BBG)
    • Yellen Calms Fears Fed’s Policy Trigger Finger Is Getting Itchy (BBG)
    • Europe Gets Reprieve in Dutch Election, But the Center Fragments (BBG); Relief in EU capitals as Dutch PM sees off far-right's Wilders (Reuters)
    • Trump's first budget: military wins; environment, aid lose (Reuters)
    • Trump Says He Based Charge of Obama Wiretapping on Media Reports (BBG)
    • Trump Adviser Carl Icahn Lobbies for Rule Change That Benefits Icahn (BBG)
    • Queen formally approves law giving UK PM May power to trigger EU exit talks (Reuters)
    • Tillerson calls for 'new approach' to North Korea, no details (Reuters); Tillerson Tells North Korea It Has Nothing to Fear From U.S. (BBG)
    • Canadian households owed $2 trillion at the end of 2016 (CBC)
    • Lone Fed Move Dissenter Worries About Inequality (BBG)
    • Trump barnstorms to push healthcare plan; signs of conservative support (Reuters)
    • Cities Shop for $10 Billion of Electric Cars to Defy Trump (BBG)
    • In Trump era, some Mexican migrants head north - to Canada (Reuters)
    • Fury Road: Did Uber Steal the Driverless Future From Google? (BBG)
    • Swatch Takes on Google, Apple With Operating System for Watches (BBG)
    • Trump vows to appeal against travel ban ruling to Supreme Court (Reuters)
    • Fed-PBOC Moves Hint at Calibration Mooted a Year Ago at G-20 (BBG)
    • The ‘Very Strange’ Item on Trump’s 1040: Alternative Minimum Tax (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - President Donald Trump will call for sharp cuts to spending on foreign aid, the arts, environmental protection and public broadcasting to pay for a bigger military and a more secure border in a fiscal 2018 budget blueprint set for release Thursday. http://on.wsj.com/2mLsUoI

    - A federal judge in Hawaii issued a nationwide temporary restraining order that bars implementation of President Donald Trump's revised executive order on immigration and refugees, a significant legal blow to the president. http://on.wsj.com/2mLl1zt


    - The Federal Reserve said it would raise short-term interest rates and remained on track to keep lifting them this year, signaling the central bank is moving into a new policy phase as the economy strengthens. http://on.wsj.com/2mLiO7f

    - The Dutch political establishment held on to power Wednesday, despite losing votes to anti-immigrant nationalists and other upstart parties, according to preliminary results published after the country's most closely watched election in recent times. http://on.wsj.com/2mL59x6

    - Federal authorities have charged four men, including two officers from Russia's spy agency, with hacking computer systems at Yahoo and stealing personal data that affected hundreds of millions of Yahoo users, in the first such case to directly target the Russian government. http://on.wsj.com/2mLkUnA

    - Japan's central bank left its policy unchanged, sticking with its expansionary measures even as other major central banks shifted away from years of unusually aggressive stimulus. http://on.wsj.com/2mL4qf7


    FT

    With Brexit around the corner, seeds of doubt have been planted in the minds of Conservative MPs after finance minister Philip Hammond announced a budget U-turn on Wednesday that exposed Theresa May's government to allegations of incompetence and division.

    Ahead of a parliamentary debate on energy prices in UK, Centrica Plc Chief Executive Iain Conn has said that a cap on prices would reduce consumers choices as power companies would set their prices at, or near, the level of the cap.

    British Defence Minister Michael Fallon is reducing the level of profit that companies can make on "single-source" contracts awarded without competition, saying the cut would mean "better value for money" for the Ministry of Defence, which is embarking on a 178 billion pounds ($218.67 billion) equipment-buying programme.

    The British government has not carried out an assessment of what effect leaving the European Union without a new trade deal would have on the economy, Brexit minister David Davis said on Wednesday.


    NYT

    - The Justice Department charged two Russian intelligence officers on Wednesday with directing a sweeping criminal conspiracy that stole data on 500 million Yahoo accounts in 2014, deepening the rift between American and Russian authorities on cybersecurity. http://nyti.ms/2mZTsVd

    - The Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark rate on Wednesday for the second time in three months, this time to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent, is finally moving toward the end of its nine-year-old economic stimulus campaign, which began in the depths of the financial crisis. http://nyti.ms/2nufygw

    - President Trump came to the heart of the auto industry on Wednesday with a manifesto for American manufacturing: to remove the shackles of regulation and restore an age of industrial glory. http://nyti.ms/2mR3w2x

    - On Wednesday, American Media Inc, publisher of The National Enquirer and Radar Online, announced that it had reached an agreement to acquire Us Weekly from Wenner Media, which has owned it since 1985. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but two people who were briefed on the deal but requested anonymity because the terms were not public said the price was $100 million. http://nyti.ms/2n1Qbog


    Britain

    The Times

    * The British government's stake in Lloyds Banking Group has been reduced to below three percent. http://bit.ly/2muOHjj

    * British Prime Minister Theresa May signed off a humiliating retreat over planned tax rises on the self-employed after finance minister Philip Hammond conceded, in a private meeting on Wednesday, that they breached the "spirit" of their party's manifesto pledge. http://bit.ly/2ntOGwT

    The Guardian

    * Theresa May is expected to refuse a new Scottish independence referendum unless it is held after the UK has quit the European Union. Britain's Scotland minister David Mundell and other UK government sources indicated on Wednesday that the prime minister was prepared for a drawn-out battle with Nicola Sturgeon's government over the referendum's timing and the question that will be asked. http://bit.ly/2muenf2

    * Welsh-based international media company Tinopolis is for sale with a price of up to 300 million pounds. Tinopolis is understood to have circulated a memorandum to a number of media owners and private equity companies that says the firm is considering a range of options, including a sale of the company. http://bit.ly/2nGojmL

    The Telegraph

    * Sports Direct International Plc said that a report by Pensions and Investment Research Consultants "incorrectly claims that Sports Direct had a chief executive-to-average employee pay ratio of 400:1, the second highest in the FTSE 350". http://bit.ly/2muP1yB

    * The board of Bowleven Plc has been ousted from an African oil explorer with immediate effect following a bitter boardroom battle with an activist shareholder. http://bit.ly/2npi1vR

    Sky News

    * Sky News has learnt that British engineering group GKN's board has appointed headhunters to identify a successor to Chief Executive Nigel Stein, who has run the company since 2012. http://bit.ly/2n15SMN

    * A fresh deal to resolve the long-running dispute between Southern rail and train drivers' union ASLEF over driver-only trains has been agreed. http://bit.ly/2nc6OhE

    The Independent

    * Rolls-Royce's decision to award Warren East, its chief executive officer, a bonus of 916,000 pounds even after the aero-engine maker's full-year earnings plunged was ill advised, according to the Institute of Directors, which represents UK business leaders. http://ind.pn/2mMKvhp

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/frontrunning-march-16
     
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    Gold Market Morning: March-16-2017 -- Gold jumping after the Fed!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster
    As we said yesterday, “One of the dangers of getting carried away by the early days of a new President is that markets can run too far and ahead of the realities facing that President. This may well prove to be the case with the sell-off in gold of late.....” The Fed has not joined in that exuberance, instead of just raising interest rates by 0.25% but making dovish statements that while a total on 3 rate hikes can be expected, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance. This disappointed many markets sending equity markets higher [because the fear of much higher rates in the future has dissipated] and the dollar lower against all currencies. Gold benefitted and traded higher, but the digestion of the Fed’s speech leaves more gold price rises to come.
     
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    Rogue Mornings with "V" & CJ - Fed Move, Deep State Battle & Pedo Arrest (03/16/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 2 hours ago
    In today's show "V" & CJ discuss the fed move to raise rates, Russia and China expand ties with Iran, a major pedo bust in India and Obama the leader of the shadow government.

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing real news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

    http://www.roguemoney.net
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    TVR [#318] 03-16-2017 END OF DAY REPORT - GOLD MINERS AT CROSSROADS
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Mar 16, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Quiet Start To Quad-Witching St. Paddy's Day: Futures Flat, Global Stocks Mixed

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Mar 17, 2017 6:47 AM


    A quiet start to today's quad-witching St. Patrick's day, with European stocks mixed, Asian shares and U.S. index futures (-0.1%) little changed ahead of industrial production data with just Tiffany's set to report earnings.

    Emerging markets headed toward the best week in eight months even as the global equities rally spurred by the Federal Reserve’s outlook lost momentum. The lack of a more hawkish tone in the FOMC's statement meant the dollar was poised for its biggest weekly loss since February. As Bloomberg observes, markets from Malaysia to Turkey climbed, while Jakarta’s benchmark touched a record before erasing gains. Shares in Tokyo dropped weighing down the MSCI Asia Pacific Index after it posted its biggest gain since November. Chinese stocks slipped 1 percent as investors sought more evidence of a sustainable economic recovery, but indexes were set for a 1 percent increase for the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index touched its highest level since August 2015 on Friday. While up only marginally on the day, it was on track for a 3.2 percent gain for the week, its biggest since September. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2 percent, bringing its rally for the week to 4.2 percent, far outpacing a 1.3 percent advance for the MSCI All-Country World Index.

    [​IMG]

    European shares opened lower although have since rebounded into the green, while futures on the S&P 500 Index retreated some more following Thursday's modest decline, after climbing to within 0.5% of an all-time high. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after a two-day loss, while Treasuries recovered some of the previous day’s declines.

    "The story in global markets over the past 24 hours has centered on a broad-based tightening of monetary policy conditions (and the perception of future tightening)," Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG in Melbourne, wrote in a note.




    Global stocks are on course for the best week since January in a week full of central bank announcements but none more important that the Fed raising its benchmark lending rate a quarter point without accelerating the timetable for future hikes, a move which according to Goldman and RBC was misinterpreted by a market which no longer believes that the Fed could possibly do anything to harm equities according to SocGen' Albert Edwards.

    “A less hawkish monetary policy in the U.S. is more likely to push assets outside of the U.S. into higher-risk, higher-return markets,” James Woods, a Sydney-based investment analyst at Rivkin Securities, said in a phone interview. “A weaker dollar is supportive of those emerging markets generally. I’m not sure whether its going to be long-lived though. People are going to get back to focusing on the next Fed hike, and also Trump’s policies which would be dollar supportive.”

    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was unchanged in early trading, holding on to a modest weekly gain after reaching the highest closing level since December 2015 on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.2 percent, after closing Thursday at the highest since June 2015. Japan’s Topix fell 0.4 percent, capping its biggest weekly decline in more than a month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2 percent, bringing its rally for the week to 4.2 percent, far outpacing a 1.3 percent advance for the MSCI All-Country World Index.

    The Jakarta Composite Index gained as much as 0.7 percent to a record before erasing gains. India’s Sensex Index climbed 0.3 percent, taking its gains for a holiday-shortened week to 2.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex jumped 0.7 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index were little changed after soaring the most since May on Thursday.

    Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent, after the benchmark gauge fell 0.2 percent Thursday. MSCI's all-country world stock index held near Thursday's all-time high on Friday, on track to end the week 1 percent higher.

    The pound was unchanged on Friday after strengthening Thursday as some Bank of England policy makers said they may not be far behind Kristin Forbes who’s leaning toward raising interest rates. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six trade-weighted peers, retreated 0.2 percent to 100.18. It hit a five-week low on Thursday, and is down 1 percent for the week. The dollar was steady at 113.32 yen but is on track to post a 1.2 percent loss for the week.

    Meanwhile, the fascination with volatility remains, as it continues to retreat after the central bank policy decisions, while at the same time, the defeat in this week’s Dutch elections of anti-immigration candidate Geert Wilders is being seen as a blow to populist political leaders, easing concerns ahead of French elections. A gauge of volatility on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index plunged 26 percent on Thursday, the most on record.

    “Volatility is scarily low and there’s just a lot of complacency out there,” James Audiss, a senior wealth manager at Shaw and Partners in Sydney, said in a phone interview. “After we get through the big macro events with governments and elections, we have to start to look to corporate earnings. That’s where it becomes not so much a systemic stock market move as stock selection.”

    In commodities, U.S. and Brent crude held above a 3-1/2-month low breached early this week, supported by a weaker dollar. Gold was up slightly at $1,228 an ounce. It was poised to gain 1.8 percent for the week, its first in three, driven by the Fed's more moderate monetary policy stance.

    * * *

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,378.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 377.81
    • MXAP down 0.2% to 147.85
    • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 478.99
    • Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,521.59
    • Topix down 0.4% to 1,565.85
    • Hang Seng Index up 0.09% to 24,309.93
    • Shanghai Composite down 1% to 3,237.45
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 29,682.41
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,799.65
    • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,164.58
    • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.466%
    • Euro down 0.01% to 1.0765 per US$
    • Brent Futures down 0.04% to $51.72/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.4 bps to 2.366%
    • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 1.934%
    • Brent Futures down 0.04% to $51.72/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,228.05
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.08% to 100.28
    Top Overnight News
    • Airbus Probed by French Authorities as U.K. Fraud Case Widens
    • Amazon Seeks Nod to Invest, Partner in India Food Supply Chain
    • Amec Foster Wheeler Wins Share of $950m U.S. Air Force Contract
    • AstraZeneca Says FDA Issues Response for ZS-9 in Hyperkalaemia
    • Morgan Stanley Veteran Wong Said to Leave to Help Set Up PE Fund
    • Trump Adviser Gary Cohn Said to Sell Stake in China’s ICBC: NYT
    • Apple Plans R&D Centers in China’s Shanghai and Suzhou
    • Freeport Indonesia Axes About 2,100 Workers as Talks Continue
    • Cerro Verde Says Union Could Start Indefinite Strike March 24
    • U.K. Pulls YouTube Adverts, Summons Google Over Content: Times
    In Asian markets equities traded mixed, following a weak lead on Wall St. with markets relatively calm following a tumultuous 2 weeks packed with key risk events and ahead of quadruple witching. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was buoyed by gold names as the precious metal held on to most of its post-FOMC gains, while strength in the largest weighted sector financials further underpinned the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) lagged as USD/JPY languished, while Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) and Hang Seng (flat) were mixed with the mainland underperforming after the PBoC conducted a net weekly drain of CNY 120bIn. 10yr JGBs were flat despite weakness in riskier Japanese assets, while a mixed enhanced-liquidity auction for 2yr, 5yr, 10yr and 20yr JGBs also failed to spur demand. The PBoC injected CNY 20bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos, for a net weekly drain of CNY 120bIn vs. CNY 110bIn net drain last week.

    In European bourses, price action has been similarly uneventful as the week closes, with major indices failing to find a firm direction as participants keep one eye on the quadruple witching throughout the day. The FTSE has managed to hold near yesterday's fresh all time highs, despite miners seeing some profit taking in the wake of recent strength. The softness in miners has been offset by the likes of Berkeley, who led the index at the open after their pre-market earnings. Yields continue to climb in the fixed income space, with bund prices lower today by around 50 ticks after the Nowotny comments yesterday. Elsewhere, Greek yields also continue to climb after yesterday's commentary from an EU official suggesting it is likely the bailout review will be completed by early April.

    In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added less than 0.1 percent, after dropping 0.2 percent on Thursday on top of a 1.3 percent post-FOMC drop. The gauge is down 1.2 percent for the week, the most since the period ended Feb. 3. The yen was little changed at 113.25 per dollar, paring its biggest weekly gain in more than a month. The pound rose 0.2%, rebounding just shy of $1.24. The currency is up 1.6 percent for the week, its biggest gain since January. The euro was little changed at $1.0769, bringing its advance for the week to 0.9 percent, following yesterday's hint by Nowotny that rate hikes in Europe may be coming. The USD continues to struggle this morning — this in spite of US Treasury yields balancing out after the sell off post FOMC. Both the EUR and GBP are still gaining ground against the greenback this morning, and both from an interest rate perspective, where yesterday's MPC conclusion revealed the majority of the BoE see a case for a rate hike sooner on the timeline. This came alongside the dissenting Forbes who voted for a hike this time around, though tempered by the fact that she leaves the committee in Jun. Cable has pushed higher today to test the stronger resistance levels seen ahead of 1.2400, but has held for now. EUR/GBP was testing support ahead of 0.8650 late yesterday before the ECB's Nowotny hit the newswires with hints towards a rate move ahead of tapering — distinguishing their exit strategy to that of the US. The cross rate turned tail to reclaim 0.8700, but has topped out ahead of 0.8750 before moving lower again. This has come in tandem with a EUR/USD move towards 1.0800, but selling intensifies the closer we get to this level.

    In commodities, oil rose 0.2 percent to $48.84, heading toward its first weekly gain in three weeks thanks to a surge on Wednesday. Gold added 0.1 percent after a two-day gain, trading at $1,228.33 an ounce and poised for a 2 percent increase for the week. Oil prices have recovered courtesy of the latest inventory data from API, perhaps less so the DoE. Saudi Arabia have also alluded to a potential extension to production cuts beyond June, but this will be cause for consolidation more than anything else, and it is now surprise to see WTI struggling to get back into the $50-55 range — currently just under $49.00. The moderate retracement in the USD has also been supportive, as it has across the commodity spectrum, with the impact on base metals positive along with some fresh optimism over demand. Supply issues have also aided Copper and Zinc price, but levels still comfortably off the recent highs seen. Gold continues to track the USD, and with a tighter correlation in Treasuries, USD/JPY has been a good indicator, with some calls for a move back to $1250.00.

    Looking at the day ahead in the US we’ll get the February industrial and manufacturing production prints for February where the consensus is for +0.2% mom and +0.5% mom respectively. The conference board’s leading index for February is also due along with the first estimate of the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment print. It’s worth noting that over the weekend China will also release February property prices data. There are a couple of other things to highlight starting today. One is the G-20 finance ministers meeting which continues into tomorrow and the other is the Scottish National Party conference which also continues into tomorrow, where clearly most will be looking for further debate on a possible second referendum.

    US Event Calendar
    • March 17-March 20: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, est. 2.5, prior 1.3
    • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%; Capacity Utilization, est. 75.5%, prior 75.3%; Manufacturing Production, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
    • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 96.3; Current Conditions, est. 111, prior 111.5; Expectations, est. 87.1, prior 86.5
      • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.7%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5%
    • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%
    Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap, with the announcement that his wife is expecting twin boys

    What have Amal Clooney, Beyoncé and my wife got in common? Please don't spill your coffee when reading the following but shock of all shocks they are all expecting twins. We had our 12 week scan yesterday - which I just managed to get back in time for after storm Stella delayed me - and it all went well. Ours are identical which are a 1 in 300 occurrence, and totally hit us for six when we found out a few weeks ago. I knew nothing about twins beforehand but apparently identical ones are totally random across age, region, religion and family history. There are absolutely no clues to their likelihood. Indeed given our age and a long time trying we thought Maisie was a miracle. What this qualifies as we've no idea. However poor Trudi has been suffering from extreme morning sickness for the last 2 months and has been on medication to help combat it. Apparently it's twice the hormones with twins and can be twice the sickness. Homelife has been a bit of a nightmare over this period and I've had to step up to the plate a lot and also get care for poor Maisie. She is still sick and exhausted but is slowly getting slightly better. So please feel for her growing two replicas of us inside of her. Also it being twins and our geriatric age (combined 87 years old around delivery... and I'm the toy boy!) make it a risky pregnancy so hopefully everyone will have their fingers crossed for us. To build some suspense there will be a gender reveal in today's PDF. I've no idea how gender reveal parties have caught on in recent years but luckily I've avoided going to all I've been invited to. All you have to do is open the PDF for all to be made apparent. Oh and I'm sure there are some twins or parents of twins out there reading this. Any advice will be gratefully received - especially with identicals. It's fair to say we're still in shock. We certainly don't know how to tell poor Bronte!!

    Talking of sickness, tracking bond yields over the last 36 hours has left you in danger of experiencing quite bad motion sickness as Wednesday night's fierce rally partly and suddenly reversed yesterday. 10y Treasury yields rose +4.7bps to 2.541% and in doing so reversed just under 50% of the post Fed move. 2y yields also darted back up +3.3bps to 1.334% and unwound a similar percentage of the prior day rally. I had a lot of clients email me yesterday wondering why bonds should have rallied so much in the first place when the Fed had hinted that they could let inflation run symmetrically around their target which might mean a period where's it's allowed to run a little hot. The relatively dovish dots seemed to dominate activity Wednesday night but perhaps there was some acknowledgment yesterday that this actually could mean 10 year yields should rise not fall. Anyway there are many ways of interpreting the Fed and at the moment yields are still notably lower than before the decision.

    That said in Europe bond markets yesterday did pretty much complete the post Fed u-turn. 10y Bund yields backed up +3.4bps to finish at 0.443%, yields in the periphery were up to +6.7bps higher while similar maturity Dutch yields were +2.6bps higher at 0.683%. Indeed the biggest driver appeared to be that market-friendly Dutch election result and specifically the defeat for the populists, helping to lower expectations of a possible Le Pen shock in France. ECB board member Praet also spoke and sounded generally upbeat on European growth prospects although did still sound some caution on the inflation outlook. Later in the evening and after the European close the ECB’s Nowotny also caused a bit of a hawkish buzz after being quoted in the Handelsblatt saying that the ECB doesn’t necessarily need to follow the US model of completing QE before raising rates, and also that the ECB could raise the deposit rate before the main refinancing rate. We'll see the reaction in the front end this morning.

    The Euro spiked on Nowotny’s comments having traded flat for most of yesterday, closing up +0.30% versus the Dollar and it’s up a little bit more this morning at 1.078. Generally positive sentiment in Europe was reflected in a decent session for risk assets yesterday with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.70%, with European Banks +0.94% and to a new 15-month high. The iTraxx Main and Crossover indices were 2bps and 7bps tighter respectively. In contrast the S&P 500 (-0.16%) and Dow (-0.07%) both eased back, albeit very modestly with the S&P 500 still up about +0.30% versus the pre-Fed level. EM on the other hand surged again with the MSCI EM index up a bumper +2.09% and to the highest since July 2015.

    Meanwhile it’s worth highlighting that President Trump’s budget came and went without causing too much of a ripple. The President proposed steep cuts to a number of domestic departments to pay for higher military spending, amongst other things. Indeed much of the chatter is that Congress will almost certainly reject most of the proposals. House Speaker Paul Ryan confirmed that the budget request is part of a “long, ongoing” process.

    Overnight in Asia it’s been fairly quiet for the most part. Equity bourses are fairly mixed but moves have been modest with the Nikkei (-0.36%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.24%) a little softer but the Hang Seng (+0.28%), Kospi (+0.35%) and ASX (+0.37%) all slightly firmer. Rates and currencies are also fairly quiet while Oil and Gold are a little firmer.

    Staying in Asia, after China's mini tightening yesterday it was good timing from our chief economist Zhiwei Zhang who published a note looking at how the property bubble is getting bigger with policy behind the curve. Zhiwei thinks the root cause of this bubble is excessively loose monetary policy set to achieve growth above its potential. He thinks aggressive monetary tightening is unlikely in 2017 though and that the bubble might help the economy in the near term, partly through a large wealth effect for households as well the government. But it severely heightens macro risks, particularly for 2018-2020. Talking of bubbles our asset allocation team published a note yesterday suggesting that US real yields are extremely misvalued if not actually in a bubble and are at levels comparable to those seen at the depths of the financial crisis.

    So after a week of a Fed hike and a mini Chinese one, here in the UK there was some surprise that BOE member Kirsten Forbes dissented from the rest of the committee yesterday and voted for a 25bp hike. She does leave the committee in the summer which perhaps downplays the move but the tone in the minutes were on the hawkish side notwithstanding the MPC acknowledging that wage inflation was "notably weaker" than the expectations from the Inflation Report in February. As DB's Mark Wall highlights, first there was a reference to "some members" (beyond Forbes) feeling that it would not take much upside relative to current growth and inflation expectations for an immediate tightening of policy to be warranted. Second, the MPC sees potential offsets against the baseline view that weaker consumption weakens GDP, for example, more supportive net trade. Mark's baseline view is for an indefinite hold on rates but yesterday's tone increases the risks of upcoming tightening.

    Away from the central banks, yesterday’s data was largely second tier by nature in the US. The most notable was perhaps the Philly Fed manufacturing index which declined a bit less than expected in March (32.8 vs. 30.0 expected; 43.3 in February) albeit with the index still at fairly elevated levels. The details also revealed a small uptick in new orders by 0.6pts to 38.6. Away from that housing starts were reported as rising +3.0% mom in February (vs. +1.4% expected) however permits fell -6.2% mom (vs. -1.9% expected). On the employment front initial jobless claims held steady at 241k while the BLS JOLTS report for January showed a small lift in the quits rate to 2.2% which matches the post-recession high from December 2015. The hiring rate rose to 3.7% from 3.6% and was the first increase since July.

    Finally the only notable data in Europe was the final February inflation report for the Euro area where headline CPI was confirmed at +0.4% mom and the YoY rate at +2.0%. There were no final revisions to the core either at +0.9% yoy. Away from that central bank decisions from Switzerland, Norway and Turkey saw benchmark rates left on hold.

    Looking at the day ahead it’s a fairly quiet end to the week for data in Europe this morning with Q4 wages data in France and the latest trade balance reading for the Euro area the only releases of note. In the US we’ll get the February industrial and manufacturing production prints for February where the consensus is for +0.2% mom and +0.5% mom respectively. The conference board’s leading index for February is also due along with the first estimate of the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment print. It’s worth noting that over the weekend China will also release February property prices data so it’ll be worth seeing if the data backs up our aforementioned economists’ view. There are a couple of other things to highlight starting today. One is the G-20 finance ministers meeting which continues into tomorrow and the other is the Scottish National Party conference which also continues into tomorrow, where clearly most will be looking for further debate on a possible second referendum.

    Meanwhile I'll still be walking round in a state of shock.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...t-paddys-day-futures-flat-global-stocks-mixed
     
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    Frontrunning: March 17

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Mar 17, 2017 7:50 AM

    • Oil Set for First Weekly Gain This Month (BBG)
    • Trump’s Budget Likely to See Major Rewrite in Congress (WSJ)
    • Trump, Germany's Merkel to hold first face-to-face meeting at White House (Reuters)
    • Tillerson Doesn’t Rule Out Preemptive Strike on North Korea (BBG)
    • Tillerson's email alias 'entirely proper': Exxon attorneys (Reuters)
    • Trump May Not Want Immigrants, but Rust Belt Mayors Do (BBG)
    • Gorsuch Sided With Illegal Immigrants in Criticism of Agencies (WSJ)
    • Bob Diamond Returns to U.K. Banking With Panmure Buy (WSJ)
    • As Many Midwest Cities Slump, Sioux Falls Soars (WSJ)
    • Euro zone lifted as ECB joins central bank trend (Reuters)
    • Nintendo to Double Production of Switch Console (WSJ)
    • Budget Cuts to Meals on Wheels Could Hurt Veterans, Raise Costs (BBG)
    • 'Anonymous' Joins Hacker Army Targeting Central Banks for Cash (BBG)
    • Berlin: Merkel's call with Chinese president not linked to her U.S. trip (Reuters)
    • China to build on disputed shoal in South China Sea (Reuters)
    • VW’s Rough Patch Spells Opportunity for Investors (WSJ)
    • Sirens blare as Japan, fearing North Korea, holds first missile drill (Reuters)
    • Tesla’s $169 Million Battery Play Is Just the Beginning (BBG)
    • Philippines tells EU lawmakers to butt out after criticism of drugs war (Reuters)
    • Iraqi forces advance into Mosul's Old City, Nuri mosque in sight (Reuters)
    • Canada Goose Vaults Reiss From Aspiring Writer to Millionaire (BBG)
    • Oklahoma lawmaker, found with boy in motel, charged with prostitution (Reuters)


    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - McDonald's Corp said it was notified by Twitter Inc that its account was compromised, after a message about President Donald Trump was posted from the burger chain's corporate Twitter account. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFdJA

    - France's financial crimes investigator has begun a preliminary probe into alleged wrongdoing at Airbus Group SE , the company said, amid widening accusations facing the European plane maker over potential corruption. http://on.wsj.com/2ntMnxh
    - Executives at Viacom Inc and its Paramount Pictures studio are working overtime to keep their $1 billion co-financing deal with two Chinese firms on course. Viacom Chief Financial Officer Wade Davis is in China meeting with the companies, Shanghai Film Group Corp and Huahua Media, according to people familiar with the matter. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFDQ5

    - Officials at Caterpillar Inc, which has faced scrutiny from federal investigators, said it has hired former U.S. Attorney General William Barr to help assess matters related to government raids on its facilities earlier this month. http://on.wsj.com/2ntKJvF

    - Exxon Mobil Corp called accusations that it withheld documents relating to climate change from the New York attorney general an attempt to discredit the energy company, but disclosed a newly discovered technical issue that could mean it will soon release more of its former chairman's emails. http://on.wsj.com/2ntKfW6

    - Marathon Pharmaceuticals LLC has struck a deal to sell its muscular-dystrophy treatment to PTC Therapeutics Inc, one month after Marathon's $89,000 price tag for the drug spurred an outcry from patient advocates and federal lawmakers. http://on.wsj.com/2ntLu7M

    - 3M Co is buying a personal-safety unit from Johnson Controls Inc for about $2 billion, the companies said. http://on.wsj.com/2ntLwNe

    - U.S. authorities said Russian intelligence officers backed of the massive 2014 hack against Yahoo Inc, but the hacker at the center of the allegations is a 29-year-old who has eluded Western law-enforcement agencies for several years. http://on.wsj.com/2ntFWKJ


    FT

    British Prime Minister Theresa May ruled out a second Scottish independence referendum until well after the UK leaves the EU, saying it would be unfair to ask people to vote without knowing the result of Brexit talks.

    Toyota Motor Corp said it plans to invest 240 million pounds ($296.47 million) to upgrade its car plant in central England, in a sign the Japanese carmaker will keep manufacturing in Britain after the country's departure from the EU.

    PricewaterhouseCoopers should pay a fine of 6 million pounds after the firm admitted failings in its audit of collapsed social housing maintenance group Connaught, the UK's Financial Reporting Council argued on Thursday.

    UK petrochemicals group Ineos is in talks with BP Plc to buy the Forties pipeline system in the North Sea, one of the region's oldest and the main source for the eponymous crude used to price the global Brent crude benchmark.


    NYT

    - German authorities searched the offices of Jones Day, the American law firm Volkswagen hired to conduct an internal investigation of its emissions fraud, the carmaker confirmed on Thursday, raising questions about the credibility of the company's efforts to uncover wrongdoing in its ranks. http://nyti.ms/2mPdqQt

    - A group of 27 former associates from the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell sent a letter on Thursday to Walter Clayton, President Trump's nominee to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, asking that he speak out against the White House's attempt to restrict travel to the United States by people from several predominantly Muslim countries. http://nyti.ms/2mysgsW

    - The White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is selling a significant holding in the world's largest bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, as he clears potential conflicts of interest to serve in his new role. http://nyti.ms/2ntJ898

    - Britain asked regulators on Thursday to investigate whether 21st Century Fox's $14.3 billion deal to take full control of the British satellite television giant Sky would give the media mogul Rupert Murdoch too much control over the country's media landscape. http://nyti.ms/2mP1HBx


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Tim Hortons Inc's top executives are setting up internal reviews of key franchisee grievances in a bid to quell discontent stemming from heavy corporate cost-cutting that some restaurant owners say harms the brand. https://tgam.ca/2mBN8jU

    ** The Alberta government expects to more than double its debt over the next three years and run deficits for six years, all while counting on rising oil prices and unbuilt pipelines to rescue the province's finances. https://tgam.ca/2mBMumt

    ** The Conservative Party is investigating allegations of what leadership candidate Kevin O'Leary is calling massive voter fraud by at least one of his leadership challengers. https://tgam.ca/2ngCYbZ

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Canada Goose Holdings Inc, known for its C$900 parkas with coyote fur-lined hoods, saw its share price open at C$23.86 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, almost 40 per cent higher than the initial offering price of C$17. http://bit.ly/2mzuGrk

    ** Quebecor Inc's price target got a boost from analysts at numerous banks after the communications and media company posted strong results on Wednesday. http://bit.ly/2mPR01m



    Britain

    The Times

    * Google is to be summoned before the government to explain why taxpayers are unwittingly funding extremists through advertising, The Times can reveal. http://bit.ly/2nthNDT

    * Oil and gas giant BP is in talks to sell the North Sea's biggest pipeline to Ineos, the petrochemicals company run by Jim Ratcliffe. http://bit.ly/2mOrNVm

    The Guardian

    * Toyota Motor Corp is to invest 240 million pounds into upgrading its car plant in Derbyshire in a major boost for the automotive industry after Britain's vote to leave the European Union. http://bit.ly/2myjqey

    * Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has accused Theresa May of sealing the fate of UK after the prime minister rejected her demand for a second Scottish independence referendum before the Brexit talks conclude. http://bit.ly/2neOlRM

    The Telegraph

    * Canary Wharf Group is mulling a sale of its stake in one of the City of London's most recognisable buildings, according to reports. http://bit.ly/2nL2YbZ

    * Britain's intelligence and security organisation has dismissed claims, suggested by the White House, that it helped former U.S. president Barack Obama spy on President Donald Trump as "nonsense" in a rare public statement. http://bit.ly/2nxcsIq

    Sky News

    * Former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond is launching a joint takeover bid with Qatari investors for Panmure Gordon, one of Britain's oldest stockbrokers. http://bit.ly/2m6lXl3

    * Former British prime minister David Cameron has tried to brush aside the significance of Conservative overspending at the last general election which led to the party receiving a record 70,000 pounds fine. http://bit.ly/2ntmcqx

    The Independent

    * Writing for the Independent, EU commissioner Julian King said it was vital for nations to work closely to combat international cyber attacks, terrorists and hostile states and "be prepared for whatever the future holds". http://ind.pn/2mV0zxS

    * UK Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said on Thursday that she had asked regulators to examine Rupert Murdoch's 21st Century Fox's planned takeover of Sky. http://ind.pn/2nvyefF

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-17/frontrunning-march-17
     
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    Gold and Silver Market Morning: Mar 17 2017 - Gold jumping after the Fed!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
    At the close in Shanghai today, the gold price was trading at 275.90 Yuan, which directly translates into $1,242.46. But allowing for the difference of gold being traded this equates to a price of $1,237.46. This more than $11.16 higher than the New York close and $10.46 higher than London. As you can see the price differentials between the three centers has been narrowing considerably. With today being a day when the gold markets are taking a breather after the rise we expect the differentials to continue to narrow as Shanghai pulls gold prices higher across the world.
     
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    REALIST NEWS - The Federal Reserve Just Made The Biggest Economic Mistake Since 2008
    jsnip4



    Published on Mar 17, 2017
    Today's Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJxqP...

    Article: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ar...

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    http://www.jmbullion.com/?utm_source=... (Recommended for Silver and Gold Purchases.)

    http://www.realistnews.net
     
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    TVR [#319] 03-17-2017 - PRE-MARKET PULSESCAN (AUDIO ONLY)
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Mar 17, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    Rogue Money Radio: Exclusive Interview with Gavin McInnes (03/18/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Published on Mar 17, 2017
    V has a very dynamic interview with Gavin McInnes discussing the criminality and corruption of George Soros and his NGO's.

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing real news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

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    Not too Distant Future: Gold, Silver, Inflation and You
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Mar 17, 2017
    5 years? 10 Years? When? What does inflation look like and how far out could dramatic scenarios be? Is 9% per year acceptable? Can your employer or business keep up? How is your pension? What will precious metals do? Will gold and silver abide by over 7,000 years of traditional performance in ability to obtain goods and services? The Junius Maltby channel takes a close look at current events and what the future may look like.
     
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