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R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 3rd Ed., Vol.16 ~ April 17th - 21st

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Apr 16, 2017.



  1. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    REALIST NEWS - Death Spiral for the LBMA Gold and Silver auctions?
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    Published on Apr 16, 2017
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    REALIST NEWS - Interesting Conversation with an Employee at my Bank
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    Published on Apr 16, 2017
     
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    REALIST NEWS - Conversation with...UNCLE PETE
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    Published on Apr 16, 2017
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Dollar, Yields, Futures Under Pressure Following Weak US Data; Europe Closed

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 17, 2017 6:46 AM


    Following Sunday night's resumption of trade after a three-day weekend, which saw sharp moves lower in US yields, the dollar and the USDJPY after Friday's disappointing CPI and retail sales data and the weekend North Korea jitters, the mood has stabilized in light trading with Asian stocks advancing, Europe mostly closed for Easter Monday and S&P futures fractionally lower at 2,325.25 in early New York trading.

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.1 percent in holiday-thinned trade, while Japan's Nikkei fell as much as 0.6 pct to hit a five-month low before ending up 0.1 percent. Asian gains were led by consumer staples and health care as information technology and real estate sectors decline. Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kopsi advance, while Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite decline. Investors prepare for first U.S. stocks trading since Thursday, which will be punctuated by Netflix earnings and Empire Manufacturing data.

    As noted earlier, a raft of Chinese economic data beat market expectations but did not produce notable market reactions as investors had been already optimistic following a recent string of positive China numbers. China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, a tad above economists' forecast of 6.8 percent. However, mainland Chinese shares fell, with Shanghai Composite Index down 1.0 percent at 3,212, risking a close below its 60-day average at 3,216, seen as an important support by investors and weighed by warning from top securities regulator to combat market misbehavior.

    In the US, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to the lowest since Nov. 11, while Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index slipped to the weakest in three weeks. Gold and the yen both climbed. The two have traded in what has effective been a mirror image for the past year.

    [​IMG]


    There has been a barrage of macro news and events over the long weekend, from Friday's disappointing inflation data casting doubt on the pace of Fed rate hikes and the U.S. decision not to label any countries currency manipulators to North Korea’s failed ballistic missile launch and Turkey’s referendum.

    On Friday, U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in March while annual core inflation slowed to 2.0 percent, the smallest advance since November 2015, from 2.2 percent in February. Core CPI posted its biggest monthly drop since 2010.



    [​IMG]

    That helped to drive down the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield to 2.200 percent, its lowest level since mid-November from around 2.228 percent on Thursday before a market holiday on Friday. The yield had risen above 2.6% in December and again in March, from around 1.85 percent before the U.S. presidential election, on expectations of Trump's stimulus. But growing perception that Trump will struggle to push any tax cuts and fiscal spending programs through the Congress has prompted unwinding of the "Trump" trade.

    "At the moment, it is hard to see any factors that could drive up bond yields," said Hiroko Iwaki, senior strategist at Mizuho Securities. "And compared to U.S. bond yields, which have given up much of their gains after the election, U.S. share prices, having gone through a limited correction, look vulnerable given potential developments in North Korea or the French election," she said.

    As Bloomberg puts it, investors will be bracing for more to come, as the earnings season ramps up and European populism is put to the test in the first round of France’s presidential election.

    “Geopolitical uncertainty weighed on global markets over the holiday weekend,” Cole Akeson, a strategist at Sberbank CIB in Moscow, wrote in an emailed note. “However, the macro data out of China this morning was slightly better than expected. For global markets generally and European markets in particular, the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday is probably the biggest planned event of the week.”

    Elsewhere, there is no sign of easing in tensions over North Korea's nuclear and missile program after the reclusive country's failed missile test on Sunday. Trump's national security adviser said on Sunday that the United States, its allies and China are working together on a range of responses to North Korea. "In essence, North Korea made a provocation that would not transcend the U.S. 'red line'. But depending on how China will react, Trump could lose his patience," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

    Bucking the broader risk off trade, Turkey’s lira jumped as much as 2.4% after voters handed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greater powers, however the currency pared gains as investors digested the referendum result.

    Safe-haven gold gained as much as 0.8 percent to hit a five-month high of $1,295.5 per ounce on continued concerns on tensions over North Korea. The dollar slipped to as low as 108.13 yen, a five-month low and 0.4 percent below its late U.S. levels. The semi-annual U.S. Treasury currency report maintained the six countries on a "monitoring list" -- China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan and Switzerland -- suggesting Washington could put more pressure on those countries to take steps to reduce their trade surplus with the United States in future.

    The euro stood at $1.0622, little moved so far, and not far from a one-month low of $1.0570 touched last Monday, with focus on the French presidential election. Ahead of the first round of voting on April 23, the race looked tighter. Two polls put any of the four frontrunners, including far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and hard-left challenger Jean-Luc Melenchon, within reach of a two-person run-off vote.

    Companies reporting this week include Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., International Business Machines Corp., Netflix Inc., Heineken NV and Unilever.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,325.25
    • MXAP up 0.4% to 146.86
    • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 479.84
    • Nikkei up 0.1% to 18,355.26
    • Topix up 0.5% to 1,465.69
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 24,261.66
    • Composite down 0.7% to 3,222.17
    • Sensex down 0.1% to 29,432.39
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,889.95
    • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,145.76
    • Brent Futures down 0.9% to $55.38/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,289.17
    • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.32
    Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
    • Amazon Seeks 1,300 Prime Now Warehouses in Europe: Telegraph
    • Amazon Said to Be Consider Buying BJ’s Wholesale Club: NYP
    • Jared Kushner Said in Talks to Sell His WiredScore Stake: WSJ
    • Ethos Still Critical of Credit Suisse Pay After Bonus Cut: SZ
    • Leonard Green Said to Be Near $1.5b Charter NEX Purchase: Reuters
    • Wal-Mart Said in Advanced Talks to Buy Bonobos: Recode
    • Groupon Cuts About 100 Jobs in Chicago: Chicago Tribune
    • Abbott Said to Agree to Buy Alere For $51/Shr; Ends Lawsuit: FT
    • Ant Financial Raises MoneyGram Bid 36% to Fend Off Euronet
    • BP North Slope Well Leaking Gas After Crude Oil Spray Stops
    • Crude Slips Below $53 as U.S. Drilling Surge Stokes Output Fears
    • Pence Visits North Korea Border, ‘Heartened’ by China Moves
    • Universal’s ‘Fate of the Furious’ Is No. 1 Film at $100.2m
    • ‘Star Wars: Battlefront II’ Game to Be Released Nov. 17
    • McKesson Gets Temporary Order on Use of Lethal-Injection Drug
    • Intercontinental Hotels: Malware Accessed Pay Cards in Americas
    • Energy Transfer Partners: ISS Recommends Hldrs Vote for Merger
    • Apple Gets California Autonomous-Vehicle Test Permit
    • South Korea’s Former President Park Charged in Corruption Probe
    • Gold Seen Climbing on Weak Dollar, Global Political Tension
    In Asian markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.1 percent in holiday-thinned trade, while Japan's Nikkei fell as much as 0.6 pct to hit a five-month low before ending up 0.1 percent. A raft of Chinese economic data beat market expectations but did not produce notable market reactions as investors had been already optimistic following a recent string of positive China numbers. China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, a tad above economists' forecast of 6.8 percent.

    Top Asian News
    • North Korea Said to Snub Chinese Diplomats as Tensions Mounted
    • Shanghai Aluminum Climbs to Highest Since 2014 on Project Halts
    • China Stocks Drop to Two-Week Low on Korea, Regulation Concern
    • China’s Economy Accelerates as Retail, Investment Pick Up
    • China-U.S. Yield Gap at Widest in Seven Months on GDP Momentum
    • Indiabulls Real Restructure, Outlook Boost Property-Stock Rally
    • Japan Stocks to Watch: H2O Retailing, Showa Denko, Densan
    • Euro Casts Off French Vote Worries as Dollar Wilts: Markets Live
    • U.S. Scrutiny Seen Sidelining Taiwan Central Bank: Street Wrap
    • Singapore Stock Traders on FIS SunGard Face Monday Glitch
    Most European bourses remain closed for Easter holidays. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 380.58, the lowest in more than a week. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index also dropped 0.3 percent.
    The MSCI Emerging Market Index slid 0.2 percent.

    Top European News
    • EU’s Piri: Turkey Talks to Be Suspended If Package Not Changed
    • Erdogan Declares Referendum Victory as Opposition Cries Foul
    • Turkey Central Government Budget Deficit 19.5b Liras in March
    • Moscow Oil Refinery Units Restart After Maintenance: Transneft
    • Turkey Election Board Chief: All Authentic Ballots Counted Valid
    • Turkey Banks Should Start Thinking How They Can Lend More: Bulut
    • U.K. Will Need EU Workers After Brexit, Hammond Says in Rp.pl
    • Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 13% in January, Highest Since 2010
    • Macron: Turkey’s EU Membership Won’t Advance in Coming Years
    • FG Future EGM to Discuss New Share Issue
    • Turkish Stock Futures Rise at Open After Referendum Vote
    • HSBC Bank Settles Allegations it Failed to Disclose Fraud
    In currencies, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,218.01 at 10:13 a.m. in London, the lowest in three weeks. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.0627. The British pound strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.2542, the strongest in more than two weeks. The Turkish lira rose 1.2 percent to 3.6648 per dollar.

    In commodities, gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,289.89 an ounce, the strongest in more than five months. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8 percent to $52.73 a barrel, the lowest in more than a week. The U.S. continued to ramp up drilling, stoking concerns the nation’s surge in output this year will counter OPEC-led efforts to cut a global supply surplus. Iron ore fell 2 percent to 501 yuan per metric ton, the lowest in more than 14 weeks.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 15, prior 16.4
    • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 70, prior 71
    • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $110.4b
    • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $6.3b

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...pressure-following-weak-us-data-europe-closed
     
  7. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: April 17

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 17, 2017 7:47 AM

    • Trump’s Renewed Focus on Health Bill Vexes GOP Tax Strategy (WSJ)
    • Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies (Reuters)
    • Trump Rejects Protests Over Tax Returns (WSJ)
    • Merkel Calls on Erdogan to Open Talks in ‘Deeply Split’ Turkey (BBG)
    • Turkish Opposition Plans Challenge to President Erdogan’s Referendum Victory (WSJ)
    • Simsek Rules Out Turkey Elections Before 2019 on Erdogan Promise (BBG)
    • Trump Is a Global ‘Instability Factor,’ Fillon's Top Aide Says (BBG)
    • Behind United Airlines’ Fateful Decision to Call Police (WSJ)
    • This Is a Dangerous Time to Own Emerging-Market Stocks (WSJ)
    • Undaunted by oil bust, financiers pour billions into U.S. shale (Reuters)
    • Bullish Oil Bets Gain on Signs OPEC Cuts to Outdo U.S. Boom (BBG)
    • Neiman Marcus Finds Even Wealthy Shoppers Want Better Deals (WSJ)
    • A $161 Billion Manager Says the Japanese Stock Gloom Is Overdone (BBG)
    • BJ’s Wholesale Club up for sale and Amazon may be interested (NYP)
    • SEC Targets Illicit Options Trades Made Ahead of Telecom Deal (WSJ)
    • Stocks soar as GM builds cache before retooling (Autonews)
    • How the Six Hour Workday Actually Saves Money (BBG)
    • Down-on-Its-Luck Caesars Pays Online Chief $210 Million (BBG)
    • Americans are taking out the largest mortgages on record (MW)
    • ‘Fate of the Furious’ Leaves Box-Office Competitors in the Dust (BBG)
    • Beijing offers $70,000 reward — and a cartoon video to help in the hunt (WaPo)
    • If Trump Fired Bannon, Would He Seek Revenge? (Politico)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - South Korea's National Pension Service, a major creditor of the debt-ridden Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co , said that it has agreed on a newly proposed bailout package for the world's second-largest shipyard. http://on.wsj.com/2pooRT0

    - In the wake of North Korea's failed missile test over the weekend, Trump administration officials stepped up pressure on China, saying the threat has reached an inflection point that demands new urgency. http://on.wsj.com/2pofOkU

    - Arkansas officials are contesting legal rulings that blocked the state from carrying out its plan to put to death at least half a dozen inmates within a span of days. http://on.wsj.com/2poam1x

    - Giving no ground, President Donald Trump dismissed protests calling for him to disclose his tax returns as the work of political opponents unhappy about his election victory. http://on.wsj.com/2pobKB9

    - A former top Treasury Department official in the George Bush administration, Randal Quarles, is expected to be President Donald Trump's pick for a top financial regulatory post at the Federal Reserve, a senior official familiar with the matter said. http://on.wsj.com/2poaTR5

    - Wells Fargo & Co faces something few other big banks have dealt with since the financial crisis: a serious effort to vote out most of its directors. http://on.wsj.com/2pockij

    FT

    * President Tayyip Erdogan declared victory in a referendum on Sunday to grant him sweeping powers in the biggest overhaul of modern Turkish politics, but opponents said the vote was marred by irregularities and they would challenge its result.

    * Britain's brexit secretary, David Davis, said that Britain does not accept that the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency will have to move from London's Canary Wharf.

    * Airbus said in its 2016 annual report that it is being sued by consultants and middlemen who were dismissed as part of a compliance review initiated following fraud investigations around the world.

    NYT

    - The British oil firm BP Plc worked through the weekend to control a damaged oil well on Alaska's remote North Slope that had started spewing natural gas vapors on Friday morning, the company and Alaska officials said. Alaskan and federal officials have identified two leaks venting methane gas, a powerful greenhouse gas linked to climate change. http://nyti.ms/2oOb8El

    - United Airlines, owned by United Continental Holdings Inc , says it will no longer allow employees to take the place of civilian passengers who have already boarded overbooked flights. The airline is reviewing its policies after the violent removal of a passenger from a flight last week http://nyti.ms/2oO68zg

    - China's economy, the world's second-largest behind that of the United States, grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter this year, led by strong expansion at factories, Chinese officials said on Monday. http://nyti.ms/2oO552r

    - Wind and solar power have been rapidly winning market acceptance. Last year, the installed capacity of solar power in the United States nearly doubled. And wind is now being harnessed to produce 5.5 percent of America's electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. http://nyti.ms/2oO4DRV

    Britain

    The Times

    * Almost 22,000 companies are facing "significant" financial distress because of rising food and fuel prices, according to an analysis by the insolvency firm Begbies Traynor. http://bit.ly/2oNK9Zg

    * Tesco is facing fresh questions over the impact of its proposed 3.7 billion pound ($4.64 billion) takeover of Booker Group after a rival wholesaler argued that it would give Britain's biggest supermarket group "an obvious level of influence" over thousands of convenience stores. http://bit.ly/2oNNpnG

    The Guardian

    * A year after the collapse of the department store chain BHS, more than two-thirds of its former stores still lie empty, blighting the UK's high streets and shopping centres, according to research by the Guardian. http://bit.ly/2oNzA8G

    * John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, is calling on Philip Hammond to hold an urgent public inquiry into whether Bank of England officials colluded in the rigging of the Libor rate. http://bit.ly/2oNDD55

    The Telegraph

    * The new boss of Debenhams will unveil plans this week to overhaul the retail chain's 165 shops and cull some in-house brands in a bid to lure shoppers back to its stores. http://bit.ly/2oNLsaZ

    * TalkTalk is being accused by John Petter, chief executive of BT's consumer business, of obstructing broadband industry attempts to introduce automatic compensation for poor service. http://bit.ly/2oNLLlX

    Sky News

    * Bridgepoint, the owner of Pret a Manger, has hired bankers at Moelis to explore a bid for house-builder Miller Homes that could value it ‎at well over 800 million pounds. http://bit.ly/2oNHZcf

    The Independent

    * The boss of private security firm G4S received a record 4.8 million pounds in pay and bonuses over the last year despite the firm being embroiled in a string of scandals. http://ind.pn/2oNMUdi

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/frontrunning-april-17
     
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    Key Events In The Coming Week: French Election, Earnings, Manufacturing, Housing

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 17, 2017 8:48 AM

    This week will be dominated by the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. With the number of undecided voters remaining high, four candidates look set to fight for the two places in the second round on 7 May. On the data side, following China's strong economic report, attention will focus on US industrial production growth on Tuesday. In the euro area, flash PMIs for April due on Friday could point to moderation. In the UK, retail sales (Friday) should have dropped in March as rising inflation eats into real income growth. On Friday, the World Bank and IMF Spring meetings also start.

    In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Monday.

    Focusing on the US, after lacklustre readings in January and February, industrial production data in March may finally have exhibited the kind of strength seen in the ISM factory index. Output readings early this year were held down by sharp declines in utilities output, which reflected unseasonably warm weather, but utilities output looks set to have jumped noticeably, which should help to drive the headline figure higher. Meanwhile, existing home sales may have climbed in March, although the expected gain was likely due in part to the unusually warm temperatures in February, which boosted demand in that month and may have propelling contract closings higher last month.

    The key this week will be in France on Sunday where the first round of the French Presidential election takes place. Official exit polls are due at 8PM CET. The 11 candidates are then whittled down to two, with the second round runoff held two weeks later on 7 May. On the data front, it looks to be a quiet week. We expect softer numbers in Friday’s flash PMI release while consumer confidence should also moderate.

    [​IMG]


    Finally, this is the first busy week for earnings season: with the following companies expected to report results:
    • Energy: SLB
    • Heatlhcare: JNJ, UNH, ISRG, ABT
    • Tech: NFLX, IBM, EBAY, QCOM, VZ
    • Real Estate: D.R. Horton, SL Green
    • Materials: CCK, KALU, PPG, SHW, STLD
    • Industrials: United Air, CSX, GE, Honeywell
    • Financials: BAC, GS, RF
    • Consumer: GNC, MAT, PM, SHOO
    Finally, a full breakdown of the key daily events with consensus estimates, via Goldman

    Monday, April 17
    • 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, April (consensus +15.0, last +16.4)
    • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, April (consensus 70, last 71): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to edge down by 1pt in April from a post-crisis high of 71, after a strong report in March showed broad-based strengthening across all components and regions.
    • 05:00 PM Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the Inaugural Lecture on Central Banking at the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs. The topic of his remarks will be “Monetary Policy Communication”. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, February (last +$110.4bn)
    Tuesday, April 18
    • 08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS -6.0%, consensus -2.8%, last +3.0%); Building permits, March (consensus +2.8%, last -6.0%): March weather featured above-average snowfall and a drop in seasonally adjusted temperatures. Additionally, the level of multifamily starts now appears elevated relative to permits, and we see signs of potential oversupply in that segment. At the same time, we believe favorable single-family fundamentals should help mitigate the winter storm impact as well as the negative impact of higher interest rates on single-family starts. Taken together, we expect a 6% drop in housing starts, reversing the 3.0% rise in February.
    • 09:00 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on “The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy” at the 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at the Levy Economic Institute of Bard College in New York.
    • 09:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%); Manufacturing production, March (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.5%); Capacity utilization, March (GS +76.4 %, consensus +76.2%, last +75.9%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.9% in March, likely reflecting a sharp pickup in utilities output due to a sharp drop in seasonally adjusted temperatures. We estimate manufacturing production declined 0.1%, reflecting a pullback in motor vehicle production partially offset by modest growth in ex-auto manufacturing output.
    Wednesday, April 19
    • 12:30 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren will give a speech on “The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy” at the 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at the Levy Economic Institute of Bard College in New York.
    • 02:00 PM Beige Book, May FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The March Beige Book reported that activity continued to expand across all districts, showing steady improvement. Consumer spending improved modestly, manufacturing activity strengthened somewhat, and the energy sector showed modest signs of improvement. In the May Beige Book, we look for additional anecdotes related to the state of consumption, manufacturing activity, price inflation, and wage growth.
    Thursday, April 20
    • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 15 (GS 245k, consensus 240k, last 234k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 8 (last 2,028k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 11k to 245k. Claims have returned to normal levels following two weeks of temporary elevation that likely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella (which hit the US during the week of March 18). However, the current level of jobless claims now appears abnormally low in a few large states such as New York and Pennsylvania, where we see scope for a rebound. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
    • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, April (GS +26.0, consensus +25.0, last +32.8): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to decline for a second month to +26.0 in April. In the March report, the headline index declined by 10.5pt to +32.8 while all underlying components improved in the March report. The index is likely to remain at levels suggestive of solid expansion in manufacturing activity.
    • 08:00 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated Q&A on “Capital Markets, Growth & the Economy of Tomorrow” at the Global Finance Forum in Washington, D.C.
    Friday, April 21
    • 09:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a Q&A on the state of the economy and the role of community developers in the financial system at the Hamline University Community Economic Development Symposium in St. Paul, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, April preliminary (consensus 53.8, last 53.3)
    • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, April preliminary (consensus 53.6, last 52.8)
    • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, March (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.1%, last -3.7%): We look for a 3.0% rebound in March existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.7% drop. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate rebound in closed homes sales, consistent with improvement in February pending homes sales (which represent contract signings). Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
    Source: SocGen, GS

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...rench-election-earnings-manufacturing-housing
     
  10. searcher

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    REALIST NEWS - Add UBER to the Stock Price Insanity like Snap, Twitter, and Tesla
    jsnip4



    Published on Apr 17, 2017
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    REALIST NEWS - Facebook shuts down pro Le Pen posts as French election nears
    jsnip4



    Published on Apr 17, 2017
    Today's Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Roavn...

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    REALIST NEWS - Roger Stone: “Trump Diplomacy Is Working… It’s Really Working”
    jsnip4



    Published on Apr 17, 2017
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    Rogue Mornings - Markets Tremor, Freedom of Speech & Jobs Shift (04/17/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 3 hours ago
    "V" and CJ breakdown the recent event in Ohio, the Free Speech rally in Berkeley, US troops training in Somalia and the rise of automation in the workplace.

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    A Short History of the Post WWII Oil price- From a Technical Perspective
    By: Plunger
    This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger’s “Trade of the Year”. This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today’s economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.
     
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    The Sirius Report with London Paul (04/17/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 6 hours ago
    London Paul details the chess game with North Korea. How delicate of a balance it is with China and Russian. Paul also breaks down several geopolitical matters and the need to stay alert for challenging economic indicators that may not catch the front page due to the situation in Syria and North Korea.

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

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    Fire Exits & Musical Chairs: Wealthy Elite Run For Metals
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Apr 17, 2017
    Wealthy individuals are building "shelters", bunkers, preparing for "changing times" or "difficult times", wealthy elites have boats to rent in New York, and the wealthy are buying metals. The momentous shift of money towards precious metals is taking place globally. You may not see it in Indiana, Ohio or Oregon, but it is happening. The Junius Maltby channel discusses a few examples and what this could mean for metals.
    BLOG: http://juniusmaltby.blogspot.com
    FERDINAND LIPS SPEECH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEMpE...
    FALSE FLAGS VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMl8z...
     
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    Lucifer's Banker | Brad Birkenfeld
    FinanceAndLiberty.com



    Published on Apr 17, 2017
    This video was posted with permission from http://PeakProsperity.com

    Full description and comments at: https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas...

    Just how bad is the ongoing fraud in the banking system? Get ready for a mind-blowing expose by a former insider at UBS.

    Brad Birkenfield, author of Lucifer's Banker: The Untold Story of How I Destroyed Swiss Bank Secrecy, recounts the efforts he uncovered by his employer to help its clients cheat the US government out of tens of $billions in taxes.

    But despite his working with the government closely to expose the gigantic conspiracy between US-based tax cheats and the giant Swiss bank, UBS, the so-called Justice Department went after Mr. Birkenfeld for abetting tax evasion by one of his clients. After spending thirty months in Federal prison, he was released and three weeks later, received a whistle-blower check for $104 million, the largest such check ever from the IRS Whistle-blower Office.

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    DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this video are not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Reverse Early Gains To End Slightly Lower
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
    Gold jumped $7.90 to $1295.40 at the open of trade in Asia before it pared back to $1285.80 in London and then bounced back to $1292.70 in late morning New York trade, but it then fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.29%. Silver rose to as high as $18.652 and ended with a loss of 0.59%.
     
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    Global Stocks Slide As Iron Ore Crashes; Pound Jumps After UK Calls Snap Elections

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 18, 2017 6:44 AM


    European stocks slide as traders returned from a 4-day Easter holidays, Asian equities likewise drop pressured by the ongoing rout in iron ore, while U.S. stock-index futures point to a lower open. British markets were roiled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek an early election on June 8, in a move aimed at strengthening her hand going into Brexit talks; the FTSE 100 dropped 1.3%, on the news, hitting the lowest since Feb. 24 while 10Y Gilts dropped below 1% for the first time since October.

    The British pound first tumbled then surged on the news. Tracking today's surprise announcement by the UK PM, sterling swung from gain to loss and back again versus the dollar before May set the vote for June 8. U.K. stocks fell by the most since January. The export-heavy FTSE 100 hits a seven-week low. The broader, more domestically focused FTSE 250, however, doesn't see this as much of a negative:

    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped to the lowest level in about three weeks as mining shares plunged, and government bonds in the region mostly rose as the build up to the French election intensified. Iron ore reeled as Citigroup Inc. said it’s bearish on the raw material’s outlook.

    The catalyst for the overnight selloff came from Asia, where the iron ore rout continued, and after the latest 5% drop, the commodity has plunged 32% from high point in Feb this year.

    The drop pressured Australian stocks (ASX 200 -1.0%) which declined to a 2-week low, as recent losses in iron ore and gold weighed on mining names. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.7 percent, while Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 0.4 percent on earlier yen weakness.

    A bounce in U.S. stocks Monday failed to cheer investors in the European session, as the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program rumbles on and the French presidential vote looms: here two candidates who want to take the country out of Europe’s common currency remain in contention in the most unpredictable race in recent history. As a result, the spread between German and Italian bonds continued to widen. “Expect a lot of noise and probably elevated volatility this week" as the first round of voting approaches, Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a note.

    [​IMG]

    The dollar dipped fractionally against a basket of major currencies. It earlier lifted off five-month lows versus the yen after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Financial Times a strong dollar was a positive in the long term while agreeing with U.S. President Donald Trump that it hurt exports in the short term.

    Investors were also watching trade talks between the United States and Japan, whose deputy premier, Taro Aso, said the two sides agreed to combat unfair trade practices. "There was quite strong thinking in the market that the U.S. would maybe put pressure on Japan in terms of currency manipulation," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales at Mizuho in London.

    Investor nervousness ahead of Sunday's French election made itself felt in currency and debt markets. French 10-year government bond yields initially rose while ultra-safe German equivalents dipped, taking the gap between the two close to six-week highs. But French yields later fell and the spread with Germany narrowed to its tightest since April 13 after an opinion poll put centrist Emmanuel Macron first in the first round of voting, just ahead of far-right, anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen with a bigger gap to far-left representative Jean-Luc Melenchon.

    The cost of hedging against big moves in the euro against both the dollar and the yen over the next month jumped on Monday to their highest levels since Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

    "(Euro government bond) investors are going to be very careful this week and clearly the only thing that's going to be on their minds is what happens in France," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. Implied volatility in the STOXX 600 index hit its highest since early November 2016.

    Oil prices fell after a U.S. government report indicated U.S. shale production was rising. Brent, the international benchmark crude, fell 29 cents a barrel to $55.07. Copper was down 0.6 percent at $$5,655 a tonne. Gold was marginally higher on the day at $1,283 an ounce, having touched a five-month high of $1,295 on Monday.

    Economic data include March housing starts, industrial production. Scheduled earnings include J&J, Bank of America, IBM, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,336.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 378.44
    • MXAP down 0.5% to 146.17
    • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 476.46
    • Nikkei up 0.4% to 18,418.59
    • Topix up 0.4% to 1,471.53
    • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 23,924.54
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,196.71
    • Sensex up 0.3% to 29,512.93
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,836.74
    • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,148.46
    • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.03/bbl
    • Gold spot little changed at $1,284.90
    • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.31
    • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.178%
    • Euro up 0.07% to 1.0650 per US$
    • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.03/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 2.022%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 1.687%
    Top Overnight News
    • Trump Seeks Shift in Visa Allotments Crucial to Tech Outsourcing
    • Netflix Trades User Growth for Profits With No ‘House of Cards’
    • Post to Buy Weetabix From Bright Food in $1.8 Billion Deal
    • U.S. Trade Deal With South Korea Falling Short, Pence Warns
    • Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Said to Have Advised Trump Team
    • CDH Investments Said to Lead Buyout of Shoe Retailer Belle
    • United Gains 1% on 1Q Beat, 2Q Prasm View; Peers AAL, DAL Rise
    • Barracuda Falls After 2018 Revenue View Midpoint Trails Estimate
    • Freeport Workers to Rally Against Grasberg Lay Offs April 20-22
    • Allergan, Novartis to Run Phase 2b Study for NASH Treatment
    • Arconic Shareholder Orbis Says Board Should Seek New Leadership
    • Gigamon, CBL & Associates, Cytokinetics to Join S&P SmallCap 600
    • Cardiovascular Systems to Recall 900 Pumps, Sees $1.5m Expense
    • HP CEO Says Import Tax May Boost Prices for Users in Industry
    • AdCare CEO Ousted After Board Says He Lied About MBA From UCLA
    • Cemex to Sell Pacific Northwest Unit to Cadman for $150M
    Asian equity markets dropped, failing to keep up with the positive momentum from Wall Street, where stocks rebounded as focus shifted to earnings and financials outperformed. ASX 200 (-1.0%) declined to a 2-week low, as recent losses in iron ore and gold weighed on mining names. Conversely, Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was positive as exporter names benefited from a weaker JPY, while the financial sector performed similarly to its US counterparts. Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) and Hang Seng (-1.4%) were subdued despite the PBoC resuming liquidity operations and firm Chinese Property Prices, as a continued rampant property sector could attract funds away from stocks. 10yr JGBs traded lower amid spillover selling from USTs and a somewhat positive risk tone in Japan, although losses were stemmed following a 5yr auction in which the b/c and accepted prices were higher than prior. Chinese House Price Index (Mar) Y/Y 11.3% (Prey. 11.8%). China house prices increased M/M in 62 out of 70 cities (Prey. 56) and increased Y/Y in 68 out of 70 cities (Prey. 67). PBoC injected CNY 40bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos.

    Top Asian News
    • Stock’s 9,800% Rise Shows Hong Kong Billions Exist Just on Paper
    • Drugs and Booze Shares Benefit as China Investors Turn Defensive
    • Japan, U.S. Eco Talks Should Have Near-Term, Concrete Results
    • Hongqiao Drops $1.6 Billion Loften Purchase Citing New Rules
    European equities have failed to hold on to opening gains and trade lower across the board with the FTSE 100 the laggard throughout the session. The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 bucked the trend at the open and started the week off on the backfoot alongside softness in energy and materials names with losses in gold overnight and iron ore prices hitting two week lows. Thereafter, European equities followed suit and shed their opening gains amid ongoing key risk factors as participants eye Sunday's first round of voting for the French Presidential election with polls showing an increasingly narrow margin between the four main candidates. Elsewhere, downbeat comments from US treasury secretary Mnuchin on the fate of tax reform and mounting geopolitical tensions have also added to the sombre tone. In fixed income markets, prices saw a relatively tentative start to the session before then being lent a helping hand by some of the softness in European equities. The focus however has been on French paper which trades relatively flat ahead of the 1st round election in which the election polls have narrowed somewhat, indicating the 1st round is a now a 4-horse race amid the surge in support for far-left Melenchon. Additionally, the shock announcement by PM Theresa May that the UK will hold a snap election on June 8 has thrown local traders for a loop, unleashing volatility both in sterling and the FTSE100, which hit its lowest level since Feb. 24

    Top European News
    • French Race Up for Grabs Days Before First Ballot Is Cast
    • Bank Brexit Exodus Seen Hastened by Close Regulator Scrutiny
    • London House-Price Growth at Five-Year Low as Luxury End Slumps
    • Deutsche Bank Sees 2017 High-Yield Market Defying Political Risk
    • Swiss Aren’t Manipulating Their Currency, Gasser Tells CNBC
    • JPMorgan Stays Constructive Europe Banks Long Term; Nordics Best
    • European Miners Post Worst Drop on Stoxx 600 as Iron Ore Tumbles
    In currencies, a choppy morning for GBP as the early running saw near term 'radio silence' prompting a fresh push higher in Cable as we pierced 1.2600. This proved short lived however as news that UK PM May announced a snap election sent cable tumbling then rebounding sharply higher. The EURGBP will struggle for upside traction ahead of the French elections, with the first round voting set for Sunday 23 April. The polls are tight, but looking at the EUR across the board, there does not seem to be any major panic, with EUR/USD sticking close to 1.0650 (large expiry here today), and EUR/JPY finding some near-term demand below 116.00. EUR/CHF treads a very tight range under 1.0700, but no prizes for guessing what is behind this. The JPY 'relief' looks to be based on what some perceive to be a near term 'verbal' impasse between the US and North Korea. Further JPY strength may be unwarranted at this stage, but resuming to steady risk on is still further out on the horizon. USD/JPY is back under 109.00 though, but techs point to a strong support zone in the 107.00-108.00 which may be tempting in value buyers irrespective of the mood in equities. AUD has suffered on the RBA minutes overnight as their concerns over the labour market and household indebtedness edge a rate cut back into policy considerations. AUD/USD is languishing in the lower 0.7500's, but downside momentum has faded here for now as traders focuses on AUD/NZD, which has now taken out modest support at 1.0750. NZD/USD propped above 0.7000 as a result. Oil prices take a dip to push USD/CAD back above 1.3350, but as we have seen in recent weeks, selling interest through 1.3400 has been strong, so we may see orders marked down given the domestic data has been supportive in recent months.

    In commodities, Gold has come off better levels in line with a modest uptick in the USD, with the key USD1300.00 having held amid last week's fall and heightened risk aversion. We see little which would have arrested the drop off in risk sentiment, but this is not an unfamiliar scenario, but the yellow metal is likely remain underpinned alongside Silver. The latter has comfortably established a foothold above USD18.00. Oil prices continue to turn up and down on inventory data and rig counts, but with WTI inside USD50-55, we again see little cause for concern unless the risk mood in equities turns sharply. The same can be said for base metals with Copper prices largely range bound after coming off better levels in recent weeks. Palladium and aluminium modest outperformers on the day.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.25m, prior 1.29m; MoM, est. -2.95%, prior 3.0%
      • Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.21m; MoM, est. 2.8%, prior -6.2%
    • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%; Capacity Utilization, est. 76.1%, prior 75.4%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.0%, prior 0.5%
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    One wonders how many Italian Governments there will be in the next 117 years but in the near-term there will be more focus on this coming Sunday's first round in the French Presidential elections which will dominate a week that also includes the first busy week of US earnings season (46 S&P 500 companies report) and the influential flash PMIs on Friday. In our 2017 outlook written nearly 6 months ago now (how time flies) the French election was one of those events where we thought volatility would increase notably into it even though we thought there'd be a market friendly outcome at the end of it. So far this year vol has been much lower than we anticipated but it has been picking up of late ahead of this election and also due to geopolitical rumblings, some slightly disappointing data and market concerns that Mr Trump's growth agenda may be faltering. We still think 2017 will ultimately be ok from a growth and risk asset point of view but it might be that we're now past the calmest point of the year.

    As we approach the election, the polls are now incredibly close with all four main candidates within a few percentage points of each other. Indeed the last 3 polls (Elabe, Ifop-Fiducial and OpinionWay) have an average high-low range amongst the top 4 candidates of 4.5% with the most notable trend now being a slight dip in support of Le Pen to around 22-23% from closer to 25% earlier this month. Market friendly candidate Macron remains well ahead of his 3 main rivals in a straight head-to-head run-off (16-26% lead) but obviously there'll be some concern with the first round getting tighter that he'll fail to be in that run-off with the worst case market scenario a Le Pen/Melenchon battle. So expect a lot of noise and probably elevated vol this week. The VSTOXX index closed at 23.39 on Thursday (double where it was back in mid-March) which as a reminder is the highest level this year and also the highest level since November 8th. Meanwhile the VIX closed at 14.66 last night which is down from Thursday’s YTD high of 15.96 but still well above the 2017 average of 12.01.

    That move lower in the VIX yesterday reflects what was a fairly calm session on Wall Street last night. Coming off the back of a -1.13% weekly loss last week the S&P 500 bounced back +0.86% yesterday on low volumes while there was a similar rebound for the Dow (+0.90%) and Nasdaq (+0.89%) as well. Ahead of today’s results it was the Banks that led the way with the sector up just over 2% - as a recap both JP Morgan and Citigroup set a decent pace last week with Q1 revenue and earnings both coming in slightly ahead of the consensus estimate. Geopolitics was less of a factor yesterday despite that weekend news of the failed North Korea missile launch. Instead some decent data out of China including the Q1 GDP report helped to support a strong start to the week.

    Indeed China’s Q1 GDP print of 6.9% came in one-tenth ahead of the consensus estimate and also improved from 6.8% and 6.7% in Q4 and Q3 of 2016 respectively. At the same time all headline activity indicators in March were supportive. Industrial production came in at 7.6% yoy (vs. 6.3% expected) from 6.0% in February. Retail sales stabilised at 10.9% yoy (vs. 9.7% expected) and fixed asset investment grew to 9.2% yoy (vs. 8.8% expected) from 8.9%. It’s worth noting that the latter was driven by property investment growth as opposed to infrastructure investment. Our economists in China also highlighted that property sales growth moderated slightly in March on a monthly basis but was still picking up if you look at the 3-month moving averages. At the same time growth of land sales and new housing starts also continued to grow. As a result of the data our economists have now revised up their GDP growth forecast to 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 (6.5% and 6.0% before revision). Importantly though, our team believe that growth has likely peaked in Q1 as credit growth slows and indeed they maintain the view that growth will drop on a quarterly basis to 6.8%, 6.6% and 6.5% in Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively.

    That data in China yesterday was attributed to the leg up for Copper (+1.14%), Aluminium (+0.58%) and Zinc (+0.88%) prices although the rest of the commodity complex was a little softer with Gold (-0.08%) and WTI Oil (-1.00%) both easing – although that does follow a decent rally last week. In sovereign bond markets 10y Treasury yields initially dipped below 2.200% at the open before steadily rising back as the session progressed to finish up just over 1bp at 2.251%. The focus in FX meanwhile was on the Turkish Lira which was as much as 2.5% stronger at the open before paring gains into the close. The rally came after President Erdogan secured victory in Turkey’s referendum which will now hand him sweeping powers including economic and monetary policies. Notwithstanding a possible recount as demanded by the opposition parties, our economist in Turkey notes that the bulk of the amendments, including a formal shift to an executive presidency, will kick in with the next dual elections (Parliamentary and Presidential) scheduled to be held in November 2019. The immediate changes post referendum are (i) removal of the current constitutional ban on the President's formal association with a political party, (ii) restructuring of the Supreme Council of Judges and Prosecutors, and (iii) abolishment of military courts. The Parliament will now have six months to make subsequent amendments in the related laws, including the electoral law, as well as Parliamentary bylaws.

    Before we recap the rest of the news since we’ve been away, this morning in Asia it’s been a fairly mixed start to the day with most major bourses open again following the long weekend. While the Nikkei (+0.23%) and CSI 300 (+0.08%) have edged a bit higher, the Hang Seng (-0.96%), Kospi (-0.18%) and ASX (-1.13%) are all lower while US equity index futures are also slightly in the red. There’s not been much new newsflow to report overnight although the latest house price data is out in China with house prices reported as rising in 62 of the 70 cities tracked by the government in March. That compares to 56 cities in February.

    Moving on. Another story which attracted a bit of attention yesterday was US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s interview with the FT. In it he said that the target to get tax reforms through Congress by August was “highly aggressive to not realistic at this point” and that “it is fair to say it is probably delayed a bit because of the healthcare (reform pushback)”. Mnuchin also responded to Trump’s statement about the strength of the dollar last week by saying that “the President was making a factual comment about the strength of the dollar in the short term” and that there is “a big difference between talk and action”. Mnuchin also suggested that the border-adjustment tax plan is not off the table but that there may be other ways of raising revenues.

    Before we look at the week ahead, it’s worth quickly wrapping up what has been a busy last couple of days for US data. The significant release on Friday was the March CPI report where headline inflation came in at a well below market -0.3% mom (vs. 0.0% expected). The core was also softer than expected at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). The end result of that is a drop in the annual rates for both the headline (to +2.4% from +2.7%) and core (to +2.0% from +2.2%). Also out on Friday was the March retail sales figures where headline sales were reported as retreating -0.2% mom as expected. Excluding autos and gas, pending was up +0.1% mom while the control group component was up a more robust +0.5% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) removing the impact of building materials. Meanwhile yesterday we learned that the NY Fed’s empire manufacturing index fell 11.2pts to 5.2 in April and the lowest since November, while the NAHB housing market index declined 3pts to 68 from what had been a 12-year high. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed is now forecasting for Q1 GDP growth of just +0.5% (from +0.6%).

    Moving now to this week’s calendar. With no data due out in Europe this morning the focus will instead be on the US this afternoon where March housing starts and building permits data is due out alongside the March industrial and manufacturing production reports. Turning to Wednesday, data due out in Europe includes the March CPI report for the Euro area along with the latest trade balance print. In the US tomorrow there is no data due out although in the evening the Fed’s Beige Book will be released. Japan kicks things off on Thursday with the March trade data due out. In Europe we’ll get PPI in Germany as well as the April consumer confidence reading for the Euro area. In the US on Thursday initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook and Conference Board’s leading index are the scheduled releases. We end the week on Friday with a first look at the global flash April PMI’s including the manufacturing print in Japan and manufacturing, services and composite readings in Europe and the US. Also due out is retail sales data in the UK and existing home sales data in the US. Away from the data, this week’s Fedspeak includes George today, Rosengren on Wednesday, Powell on Thursday and Kashkari on Friday. Over at the ECB Hansson, Coeure and Praet are amongst the speakers this week while the BoE’s Carney speaks on Thursday. Also worth highlighting this week is US Vice- President Mike Pence’s meeting with Japan PM Abe and the release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook today, Italy PM Gentiloni’s meeting with President Trump on Thursday and the annual Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF kicking off on Friday. Earnings wise this week we’ve got 46 S&P 500 companies accounting for 10% of the index market cap. The highlights include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Yahoo, Johnson & Johnson and IBM today, eBay and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, Verizon on Thursday and Schlumberger on Friday.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...hes-pound-jumps-after-uk-calls-snap-elections
     
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    Frontrunning: April 18

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 18, 2017 8:18 AM

    • Britain's May seeks snap election to boost Brexit hand (Reuters)
    • Trump to seek changes in visa program to encourage hiring Americans (Reuters)
    • Trump appointee Gorsuch energetic in first U.S. high court arguments (Reuters)
    • Pence Reaffirms U.S.-Japan Alliance Amid North Korea Provocations (WSJ)
    • Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Said to Have Advised Trump Team (BBG)
    • Young White America Is Haunted by a Crisis of Despair (BBG)
    • Oil Prices Fall on Saudi Minister’s View of Output Deal (WSJ)
    • Facebook Gives Staff Green Light to Protest Trump on May 1 (BBG)
    • In Afghanistan, Battle With Islamic State Grinds On (WSJ)
    • Democrats aim to 'make Trump furious' in Georgia election (Reuters)
    • Opponents seek to annul Turkish vote as Erdogan's new powers become reality (Reuters)
    • Theranos Agrees to Two-Year Ban From Blood Testing (WSJ)
    • Facebook murder suspect remains at large as police ask public for help (Reuters)
    • Crude Oil Likely to Surge by $10, Citi Says (BBG)
    • Banned at sea: Venezuela's crude-stained oil tankers (Reuters)
    • How to Top the iPhone? For Foxconn, It’s With TVs (WSJ)
    • GOP Goes After Trillion-Dollar Democratic State Tax Deduction (BBG)
    • Post Holdings Buys Weetabix in $1.76 Billion Deal (WSJ)
    • Profits Parked in the Caribbean Jam U.S. Economic Data (BBG)
    • Arkansas Supreme Court Halts Two Executions Set for Monday Night (WSJ)
    • Two held in France planned 'violent' attack ahead of elections (Reuters)
    • Eleven Celebrities on How They Spend Their Money (BBG)
    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Theranos Inc and its founder pledged to stay out of the blood-testing business for at least two years in exchange for reduced penalties from federal health authorities, in an agreement that resolves a year-long regulatory impasse. http://on.wsj.com/2pLTD4G

    - The top court in Arkansas halted the executions of two inmates scheduled for Monday night, fraying plans by Governor Asa Hutchinson to put to death six men before the state's lethal-injection drugs expire at the end of the month. http://on.wsj.com/2pLMamg

    - The number of applications for the H-1B visas used by high-tech companies and others to bring highly skilled workers to the U.S. dropped this year after years on the rise, the government said Monday. http://on.wsj.com/2pM7AzK

    - President Donald Trump will sign an executive order in Wisconsin on Tuesday directing a government-wide review aimed at putting new teeth back into decades-old "Buy American" and "Hire American" directives. http://on.wsj.com/2pLM6mn

    - The special election on Tuesday to fill a Georgia House seat has drawn staggering sums of money, a barrage of advertisements and the intervention of the president as Democrats attempt to win a seat that Republicans have held since 1979. http://on.wsj.com/2pLSl9Q

    - A Beijing-based investment fund, CMC Capital Partners, is buying a small stake in Creative Artists Agency and creating a joint venture designed to help one of Hollywood's biggest talent agencies expand its presence in China. http://on.wsj.com/2pM70lq


    FT

    * British cereal company Weetabix is set to be bought by Post Holdings, the No.3 U.S. cereal company, for about $1.76 billion, according to people involved in the transaction.

    * Britain is looking at a 2-year fixed visa for young Europeans seeking jobs in the low-skilled sectors in the United Kingdom.

    * The owner of the Daily Mail newspaper, Daily Mail and General Trust, has sold its viral video-sharing website Elite Daily to Bustle Digital Group for an undisclosed amount.


    NYT

    - Investment firm Silver Lake plans to announce on Tuesday that it has closed its fifth buyout fund at $15 billion, one of the biggest ever dedicated to technology deals. That exceeds the $12.5 billion fund-raising target that the firm had previously aimed for and brings the firm's total assets and committed capital to about $39 billion. http://nyti.ms/2pvM0Qs

    - Arconic Inc's CEO Klaus Kleinfeld has been ousted from the company after mounting pressure from the big hedge fund Elliott Management and a letter he sent in response without his board's approval. http://nyti.ms/2pvDUaq

    - Officials in New York City are moving to require Uber Technologies Inc to provide a tipping option in the ride-hailing application. The city's Taxi and Limousine Commission announced a proposal on Monday requiring car services that accept only credit cards to allow passengers to tip the driver using their card. http://nyti.ms/2pvSyOZ

    - Facebook Inc is facing a backlash over a shooting video, as it grapples with its role in policing content on its global platform. Criticism built swiftly on Monday after the company took more than two hours to pull down the video. http://nyti.ms/2pvNUAv

    - The threat of a Hollywood strike is getting real. On Wednesday, television and movie writers will begin voting on whether to authorize a walkout. If members approve a strike, and no pact with studios has been reached by May 1, picketing will begin the next day. http://nyti.ms/2pvO8aV


    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Seeking to tame a roaring housing market in greater Toronto, the Ontario government is considering a speculation tax on home purchases by non-residents. https://tgam.ca/2ojF87K

    ** A group of judges publicly complained that Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) officials and their Department of Justice counsel have not included enough information in their warrant applications. https://tgam.ca/2ojACpP

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Gibraltar Growth Corp has announced that it will acquire Montreal-based LXR Produits de Luxe International. http://bit.ly/2ojnlxP

    ** Royal LePage joined the chorus of those repeating that Ottawa and its provincial counterparts should tread cautiously before considering everything from rent control to a tax on foreign investors. http://bit.ly/2ojnUHX


    Britain

    The Times

    Tesco Plc is facing fresh questions over the impact of its proposed 3.7 billion pound ($4.65 billion) takeover of Booker Group after a rival wholesaler argued that it would give Britain's biggest supermarket group "an obvious level of influence" over thousands of convenience stores. http://bit.ly/2pb6FMS

    The Co-op has attracted 750,000 new members in the past six months by offering a 5 percent cash back reward on purchases of own-brand products and a 1 percent donation to local charities. http://bit.ly/2onTAuV

    The Guardian

    Theresa May said the energy market was "manifestly" not working after a flurry of price rises by the big six companies – British Gas, e.on, EDF, npower, ScottishPower, and SSE – and dozens of smaller suppliers. A government crackdown was most likely in the form of a price cap on the standard variable tariffs affecting nearly two-thirds of households. http://bit.ly/2pLa29z

    Ticketmaster has been accused of not doing enough to stop professional ticket touts bypassing strict purchase limits imposed on ordinary fans. Fans can use the site to buy tickets when they first go on sale. But it also owns the resale sites GetMeIn and Seatwave. Critics of these "secondary" sites say they have become a lucrative haven for professional touts. http://bit.ly/2pswGHa

    The Telegraph

    One of Britain's best loved breakfast cereals is expected to be gobbled up by the American cereal giant Post Holdings Inc in a 1.4 billion pound deal. The maker of Golden Crisp and Cocoa Pebbles was tipped as the frontrunner in the race to buy Weetabix last month, and is expected to confirm the long-awaited deal when U.S. markets open on Tuesday. http://bit.ly/2oFMSlG

    Sky Plc and Virgin Media are close to a landmark deal to join forces in the advertising market, in a move meant to challenge local media and tempt spending away from Google and Facebook. http://bit.ly/2pLj9qy

    Sky News

    Vice is in talks with private equity firms including the former owner of Formula One motor racing about an investment valuing it at close to $5.5 billion. http://bit.ly/2nWqsj7

    Supermarket giant Tesco Plc is in line for a 105 million pound cut in business rates on its biggest stores, while small firms are set to be hit with hikes. http://bit.ly/2puS5Ne

    Independent

    One of Britain's most powerful business lobby groups is urging the Government to ramp up efforts towards making the UK economy the world's most competitive by 2030, just as Westminster begins the arduous process of disentangling from the European Union. http://ind.pn/2pLmpCx

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-18/frontrunning-april-18
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: Apr-18-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    The fall in gold and silver is just profit taking which if it continues during the day will result in more losses. Intraday volatility will rise. News from North Korea and other parts of the globe will be closely watched. The next seven trading session are very crucial for gold and silver from a medium term perspective. The ability to have a sustained rise will be tested for gold and silver bulls.

    Gold and Silver Market Morning: April 18 2017 - Gold building strength below $1,300!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
    The Shanghai Gold Exchange was trading at 286.00 towards the close today. This translates into $1,286.84. New York closed $3.04 below Shanghai’s closing. London opened at a $0.00 discount to Shanghai. This left all three markets almost in line with each other, which is further testament to the ability of arbitrageurs to smooth out market differences. This is the first time we have seen a zero discount to London prices. It tells us that the gold price is going higher soon!
     
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    The Big Trade-Plungers Trade of the Year Part II
    By: Plunger
    Is the Economy at the cusp of the next recession? or maybe worse? Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade.
     
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    Rogue Mornings - Pension Underfunding, Banking Industry & NATO (04/18/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



    Streamed live 3 hours ago
    "V" and CJ are joined by "James" The Russian Analyst to deliver another great show. The team discuss the latest with pension underfunding, bank regulations and adding Montenegro to NATO really means?

    We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.

    Please subscribe for the latest shows daily!

    http://www.roguemoney.net
    https://www.facebook.com/ROGUEMONEY.NET/
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    Turkey CONFISCATES GOLD & Silver Price Manipulations
    Junius Maltby



    Published on Apr 18, 2017
    Turkey moves to "confiscate" citizen gold in order to save economy? Silver market behaving in ways that elude to manipulations? News on metals prices, gold and silver, here and now. Join the conversation on the JUNIUS MALTBY CHANNEL.
    FAIR USE STATEMENT
    This video may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. This material is being made available within this transformative or derivative work for the purpose of education, commentary and criticism, is being distributed without profit, and is believed to be "fair use" in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

    For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/
     
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    European Stocks, Futures Rebound As Stronger Dollar Eases Haven Demand

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 19, 2017 6:43 AM

    European stocks rebounded after the biggest one-day drop since November, alongside S&P futures, while Asian equities posted modest declines after yesterday's weak US close. Gold and yen slid, while the dollar gained on the latest Mnuchin comments to the FT according to which Trump was "absolutely not" trying to talk down the dollar.

    European equities rose 0.4% in early trading, hinting at some cautious optimism following a day of risk off sentiment, and reversing the 0.6% fall in Asian equities outside Japan which dipped to a one-month low. U.K. shares initially traded lower as the pound held much of its gains following the surprise election announcement, however have since rebounded back to unchanged. Having dragged it lower on Tuesday after another major rout in China, commodity companies helped prop the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which rebounded following the biggest one-day loss since November. Sterling pulled back slightly after reaching the strongest level since October on Tuesday. Oil fluctuated after dipping on yesterday's API data which showed U.S. oil inventories fell 840,000 barrels last week, a lower than expected draw. On Wednesday official EIA data is expected to show a larger drop of 1.4 million barrels.

    "Sterling rallied across the board yesterday on the back of Prime Minister May’s announcement of snap UK elections. The market interpreted the move as an effort to strengthen the prime minister's majority and reinforce a more unified stance for the upcoming negotiations with the EU," Unicredit analysts said in a note on Wednesday. "Geopolitical tensions are providing strong support to U.S. Treasuries ... (and) in the euro zone Bunds are receiving support from the general decline in risk appetite and uncertainty related to the French presidential election."

    The flight to Treasury safety pushed JGB yields briefly back into the negative overnight, however modest selling in the complex has since seen the 10Y yield rebound back over 0.00%

    As Bloomberg highlights in its overnight wrap, after declines on Tuesday, investors seem to be taking the addition of yet another macro risk in their stride. The U.K. vote joins a slew of elections to be held this year against a backdrop of rising populism in the Europe, while geopolitical tensions are simmering over both North Korea and Syria and the pace of monetary tightening in the world’s biggest economy looks uncertain. Meanwhile, the reflation trade has soured, with June rate hike odds dropping below 50% for the first time in two months.

    [​IMG]

    Asian shares failed to benefit from the eventual rebound in risk sentiment, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%, taking its four-day loss to 3.2%. The main Shenzhen market was also down a fourth day. The Hang Seng Index slid 0.4 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped below the 10,000 level for the first time in two months. Japan’s Topix index was little changed, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.5 percent.

    Risk was firmer in Europe, where the Stoxx Europe 600 increased 0.3% as of 10:10 a.m. in London, after dropping 1.1% on Tuesday.

    In the US, S&P futures rose 0.3% offsetting yesterday's 0.3% drop in the cash market. IBM slumped in after-hours U.S. trading after its 20th consecutive quarterly sales decline.

    Sterling was just off a six-month peak against the dollar above $1.28 having surged when British Prime Minister Theresa May called an early general election for June 8, seeking to strengthen her party's majority ahead of Brexit negotiations.

    The dollar was undermined in part by an eroding interest rate advantage as U.S. bond yields dived to five-month lows. Yields on 10-year Treasury paper sank to 2.17%, far away from the 2.629% peak seen in March. They were last up slightly on the day at 2.20%.

    A run of disappointing U.S. economic data and doubts that the Trump administration will progress with tax cuts have quelled expectations of faster inflation and boosted fixed-income debt. That, in turn, has taken the steam out of Wall Street. The Dow fell 0.55 percent on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 lost 0.29 percent and the Nasdaq 0.12 percent. Goldman Sachs lost 4.7 percent in the largest daily drop since June after its earnings missed expectations as trading revenue dropped.

    In commodity markets, profit taking nudged gold down 0.4 percent to $1,287.10 an ounce, and away from Monday's peak of $1,295.42. Oil prices slipped as U.S. crude stockpiles fell by less than expected and a U.S. government report said shale oil output in May was likely to post the biggest monthly increase in more than two years

    Economic data include weekly mortgage applications. Scheduled earnings include U.S. Bancorp, Qualcomm, Morgan Stanley.

    Bulletin Overnight Summary from RanSquawl
    • European equities trade modestly higher ahead of further notable earnings from the US with macro newsflow from the EU session relatively light
    • Across FX markets, GBP has given back some of its gains against the greenback after having met resistance at 1.2920 to move within proximity to the 1.2800 level
    • Looking ahead, highlights include DoEs, Fed's George, Rosengren and ECB's Coeure
    Global Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,343.00
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 377.49
    • MXAP down 0.5% to 145.52
    • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 473.43
    • Nikkei up 0.07% to 18,432.20
    • Topix down 0.01% to 1,471.42
    • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 23,825.88
    • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,170.69
    • Sensex up 0.05% to 29,333.48
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,804.01
    • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,138.40
    • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 0.177%
    • Euro down 0.1% to 1.0718 per US$
    • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $54.95/bbl
    • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to 1.966%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.661%
    • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,282.57
    • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 99.70
    Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
    • Fed June Hike Odds Below 50% After Inflation Expectations Tumble
    • Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Gorilla in the Room
    • IBM Sales Miss Shows Return to Growth Not Without Roadblocks
    • Trump Mulls Military Options for North Korea. They’re All Grim.
    • European Car Sales Surge 11% as Fiat, Renault Lure Buyers
    • Currency Traders Spot Fatal Flaw in Republicans’ Border Tax Plan
    • Ford’s Schoch Sees ‘Strong 2017’ in China
    • Maserati CEO Bigland Seeing No Signs of Any China Sales Slowdown
    • Nasdaq Seeks German Power Futures Amid Potential Market Split
    • Goldman Sachs Australia’s Steve Maartensz Said Leaving Bank
    • Havertys to Name Richard B. Hare as CFO
    • KKR, Stone Point Buy Wealth Management Firm Focus Financial
    • American Air Wins Arbitration Over Flight Attendant Pay Raise
    Asian equity markets traded negative following a weaker lead from Wall Street, where disappointing earnings from the likes of IBM, Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs dampened sentiment. This resulted in early pressure in Nikkei 225 (Unch.) and ASX 200 (-0.5%) with weakness in financials and commodities leading the declines in the latter. Shanghai Comp (-0.8%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) also conformed to the downbeat tone observed across their global counterparts amid mild increases in Chinese money market rates, with the PBoC's liquidity operations failing to provide an uplift. 10yr JGBs traded higher as participants sought after safer assets due to the dampened tone in the region, while the 10yr yield declined to 0% which was its lowest since November.
    PBoC injected CNY 40bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos.

    Top Asian News
    • China’s $8.5 Trillion Shadow Bank Industry Is Back in Full Swing
    • Jakarta’s Chinese Christian Governor Trails in Run-off: Polls
    • Samsung Heir’s Trial Homes in on Five Minutes With Ex- President
    • Alcohol Ban Another Drain on India’s Weak State Finances
    • Indian Stocks Fluctuate; TCS Is Biggest Drag on Sensex Benchmark
    European markets have rebounded among an air of caution this morning with the Eurostoxx trading higher by a modest 0.3% as participants continue to digest yesterday's news that PM May is to call a snap election for June 8th. Before that though, focus remains firmly on the 1st round of the tense French election, in which some polls indicate that Macron still holds a slight advantage over his nearest rivals (Le Pen, Fillon). In stock specific news, earning updates have been coming in thick and fast with AB Foods supported by strong results this morning, while Burberry notably underperforms after the retailer stated that revenue fell short of analyst expectations. In credit markets, prices had been subdued for much of the morning with Bunds relatively flat, however recent comments from ECB's Hansson who noted that it is not too early to discuss ECB policy (change) has pressured the German benchmark in recent trade.

    Top European News
    • French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
    • Banks and Clients Tussle Over What It Will Cost to Read Analysts
    • How May’s Election Bet Could Help Scots Independence Forces
    • Pound May Top $1.30 on Short-Gamma Positioning, Charts: Analysis
    • Michael Spencer’s NEX Group Plans Relocation in New York, London
    • Burberry Sales Miss Estimates as New CEO’s Task Gets Tougher
    • Germans Fly to U.S. Ready to Counter Trump’s Surplus Complaints
    • Zalando Drops After Reporting Quarterly Profit to Miss Estimates
    In currencies, the yen dropped 0.4 percent to 108.86 per dollar after gaining 0.5 percent Tuesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent following a two-day decline. The pound dropped less than 0.1 percent to $1.2836 after its 2.2 percent surge Tuesday. The euro also slipped less than 0.2 percent. Cable has given back some of its gains against the greenback after having met resistance at 1.2920 to move within proximity to the 1.2800 level with markets now awaiting the Parliamentary confirmation for the go-ahead from yesterday's announcement. Elsewhere, USD/JPY has continued to climb throughout the European session as geopolitical fears continue to abate, at least for the time being with the pair approaching 109.00 to the upside. Elsewhere, commodity currencies have been a touch softer this morning with USD/CAD tripping above 1.34, while there has been no respite for the AUD as we are back testing 0.7500 against the USD, but the flow looks to be going through AUD/NZD, which is now just below the 1.0700 mark. Finally, EUR has lost some modest ground to the broadly firmer USD with this morning's inflation data from the Eurozone coming broadly in line with expectations.

    In commodities, gold declined 0.5 percent to $1,282.84 an ounce after closing at the highest since November in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed at $52.43 a barrel, after two days of losses. Trade across the commodities complex remained uneventful with WTI crude futures only slightly pressured following a smaller than expected headline crude drawdown in the latest API Inventory Report. EU trade has seen some rhetoric from OPEC Sec-Gen Barkindo who said that March compliance data is showing higher conformity with supply cut pact but this has failed to provide too much traction for energy prices ahead of the US crossover. Elsewhere, gold (-0.2%) continued to pull back from 5-month highs as the USD attempted to nurse yesterday's weakness, while copper found some reprieve and rebounded from 3-months lows.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the only data due is the final CPI report for the Euro area where headline CPI is expected to come in at +0.8% mom and +1.5% yoy, and the core at +0.7% yoy. There is no data due in the US although we will get the Fed’s Beige Book while the Fed’s Rosengren is also due to speak. The ECB’s Coeure also speaks this afternoon in NY. Earnings wise, today we will get 16 S&P 500 companies including Morgan Stanley and eBay.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.5%
    • 12:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks at Bard College Conference
    • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
    * * *

    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    We were actually watching the news on TV last night after the surprise snap UK election decision. On this the biggest call out of DB over the last 24 hours was to reverse the 2 year bearish house view on Sterling immediately after the announcement yesterday. Our FX strategists argued last year that an early general election was the only way to resolve the political impasse the U.K. government faces in conducting Brexit negotiations. The 2020 General Election was a problem domestically (small dwindling majority likely forcing policy gridlock and compromises) and externally in as far as negotiating with Europe from a weak position in 2019 as the Brexit deadline approached.

    The election on June 8th will likely result in a larger Conservative majority (see latest polls below). This should have three material implications, in their opinion. First, it makes the deadline to deliver a "clean" Brexit without a lengthy transitional arrangement by 2019 far less pressing given that no general election will be due the year after. Second, it will dilute the influence of MPs pushing for hard Brexit, strengthening the government's domestic political position and allowing earlier compromise over key EU demands for a transitional arrangement. Third, it strengthens the PM's overall negotiating stance who in recent weeks has clearly fallen in line with the European negotiating approach. This will involve a settlement of the Brexit payments and other divorce aspects first, to be followed by a lengthy transitional period during which the final outcome of Brexit will emerge. This sequenced approach materially reduces the "crash risk" of Brexit negotiations as well as strengthening the Prime Minister's hand in pursuing an orderly (and very lengthy) withdrawal. All of the above in turn reduce downside risks for the U.K. growth outlook over Brexit negotiations. Our FX team will look to publish fresh targets in the coming days. In terms of the economic impact, DB’s Mark Wall believes that a larger government majority should also reduce Brexit-related downside risks. However, he hesitates from assuming much upside yet for economic growth or for BoE policy rates. Mark believes that the Conservatives are likely to campaign on an uncompromising “hard Brexit” message and the capacity to concede in negotiations in the EU will come later. He holds his 1.8% GDP growth forecast for 2017 and sees little upside relative to his 1.1% GDP forecast for 2018. A link to both reports can be found here.

    Just on those polls, a snap online ICM poll released yesterday in the hours following the election announcement showed that, with a polling sample of 1000 people, support for the Conservatives stands at 46%, with Labour at 25% and the Lib Dems at 11%. The 3 polls prior to this (ICM, YouGov, ComRes) showed the Conservatives as holding an average 20% lead over Labour, so not too dissimilar. The FT poll tracker also shows the Conservatives as holding 43% of the support compared to 25% for Labour (or an 18% lead). The FT also references Electoral Calculus which predicts a Conservative majority of 130 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. That compares with a working majority of just 17 seats currently.

    Unsurprisingly the news of the snap election was initially most felt in FX with Sterling rallying immediately and closing 3 big figures higher or +2.20% at $1.284 – the highest level since October 3rd. That was the biggest rally for the Pound versus the Dollar since January 17th when PM May delivered what was largely considered a fairly balanced Brexit speech. That move in Sterling yesterday weighed heavily on UK equities with the FTSE 100 (-2.46%) ironically suffering its biggest one-day loss since the post-Brexit aftermath on June 27th. The index is also now back to within just 0.7% of the February lows. The big dollar earning blue-chips suffered most of all with some of the biggest losers including BHP (-5.59%), Glencore (-5.58%), BP (-3.93%), GlaxoSmithKline (-3.67%) and Antofagasta (-3.41%). In contrast the more domestically orientated FTSE 250 closed down just -1.16%. For me I have to weigh up whether the potential cheaper cost of my next iPhone purchase (never too far away) offsets my declining domestic share portfolio. It's a close one!!!

    There wasn’t much better news for risk assets outside of the UK yesterday either. In Europe the Stoxx 600 closed down -1.11% while last night the S&P 500 bounced back to pare its loss to a more modest -0.29%. One sector which notably underperformed was US Financials (-0.83%) which came after Goldman Sachs disappointed analysts with a miss at both the revenue and earnings lines following its Q1 report yesterday. In contrast to what we’ve seen with other US banks this reporting season - including BofA yesterday - the miss was largely as a result of disappointing performance in the FICC business. The other story in markets yesterday was the move in rates. In keeping with the largely risk-off tone but perhaps also reflecting the lingering geopolitical concerns and also the upcoming French presidential election this weekend to some degree, 10y Bund yields initially rallied 3.1bps to 0.153% for the lowest closing yield this year before 10y Treasuries then rallied 8.2bps to 2.169% for the lowest close since November.

    This morning in Asia the majority of bourses are following the lead from Wall Street and Europe yesterday and are currently tracking lower. The Hang Seng (-0.74%), Shanghai Comp (-1.10%), Kospi (-0.50%) and ASX (-0.56%) are all in the red. It’s worth noting that materials names are underperforming, which isn’t a surprise given the moves for metals over the last 24 hours. Most notable is the latest leg lower for iron ore which fell another -4.60% yesterday and is now down over -33% from the February highs. Elsewhere, the Nikkei is currently little changed, helped by a slightly weaker Yen. US equity index futures are a touch higher however despite IBM reporting softer than expected sales figures after closing bell last night which saw shares tumble 5% in extended trading. Meanwhile in bond markets this morning the most notable move is that for JGB’s where the 10y (using the March-2027 maturity bond) has fallen below 0% (touching -0.005%) for the first time since mid-November. It’s worth adding that the BoJ today maintained the amount of 5y and 10y bond purchases in its regular bond buying exercise.

    Yesterday we saw the latest CSPP numbers and it’s looking like I might have to say 'I was wrong' soon which are words a research analyst always struggles with. I thought that the ECB might taper corporate purchases alongside Government bonds but the early evidence suggests some evidence otherwise. However the 'strong' numbers of the last two weeks (post taper) might be slightly distorted by two pretty weak weekly numbers in March and the Easter break but the average daily purchases in the 4 business days last week of €423mn were comfortably above the daily average of €368mn since the program started. But if you average it over 5 days it goes down to €338mn/day. So until we see the full month's purchases on May 2nd (two weeks time) we really can't be sure. At that point the ECB will surely want to have signalled how they have split the taper. To be fair my colleague Michal has been more of the opinion that they'll keep CSPP 'stronger for longer' than me. It's important as for the last few months I've felt that although technicals have been strong for credit, the technicals for Bunds have been even stronger (see a recent Credit Bites for more https://goo.gl/XmY0dQ) thus creating headwinds for spreads. If the CSPP is staying 'stronger for longer' it will help redress that balance a little but it's too early for this to be confirmed.

    Away from that, yesterday’s macro data was largely a sideshow. In the US industrial production was confirmed as increasing +0.5% mom as expected with capacity utilization also edging up four-tenths to 76.1%. Manufacturing production did however decline -0.4% mom, led by the auto sector. Elsewhere, housing starts were confirmed as declining a relatively steep -6.8% mom (vs. -3.0% expected) although that was somewhat offset by a two percentage point upward revision to the February print to +5.0%. Building permits was reported as rising +3.6% mom (vs. +2.0% expected). Away from this, there was no data of note in Europe however we did get other economic news out of the IMF with the latest quarterly forecasts released. The fund revised its global growth forecast up one-tenth to 3.5% this year and left its 2018 forecast for 3.6% unchanged.

    The forecast for the US was also left unchanged at 2.3% and 2.5% for this year and next. There was also a little bit of Fedspeak yesterday from Kansas City Fed President Esther George, although again it didn’t do much to move the dial. George said that “balance sheet adjustments will need to be gradual and smooth” and that “importantly, once the process begins, it should continue without reconsideration at each subsequent FOMC meeting”.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the only data due is the final CPI report for the Euro area where headline CPI is expected to come in at +0.8% mom and +1.5% yoy, and the core at +0.7% yoy. There is no data due in the US although we will get the Fed’s Beige Book while the Fed’s Rosengren is also due to speak. The ECB’s Coeure also speaks this afternoon in NY. Earnings wise, today we will get 16 S&P 500 companies including Morgan Stanley and eBay.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...es-rebound-stronger-dollar-eases-haven-demand
     
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    Frontrunning: April 19

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Apr 19, 2017 8:03 AM

    • As Trump warned N. Korea, 'armada' headed to Australia (Reuters)
    • Threat of Carrier Heading to Koreas Wasn’t All It Seemed (WSJ)
    • Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Asset Gorilla in the Room (BBG)
    • Investors’ Nightmare Scenario Takes Shape in French Election (WSJ)
    • Venezuelan opposition to hold 'mother of all marches' against Maduro (Reuters)
    • U.S. says Iran complies with nuke deal but orders review on lifting sanctions (Reuters)
    • Ryan’s Best Hope to Avoid a Shutdown: Making Friends With Pelosi (BBG)
    • Pence says working with allies to put pressure on North Korea (Reuters)
    • Fox News Is Preparing to Cut Ties With Bill O’Reilly (WSJ)
    • China gathers state-led consortium for Aramco IPO (Reuters)
    • Le Pen Tries to Steer Far-Right Party Into Mainstream (WSJ)
    • Ferrari Roars Back in China as Rich Snub Xi's Austerity Push (BBG)
    • U.S. states considering alternative execution methods face legal hurdles (Reuters)
    • Homebuilders Could Be Losers in Early Test of Trump Trade Policy (BBG)
    • Missing Billionaire Has Ties to China’s Military (WSJ)
    • China sees higher risk of mass unemployment, pledges more support (Reuters)
    • The Life of an Apple Supplier Is Getting Even Tougher (BBG)
    • Barkindo says OPEC, non-OPEC committed to restore market stability (Reuters)
    • Insurance Customers Will Have to Get Used to Talking to Machines (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - The Trump administration notified Congress on Tuesday that Iran is compliant with the landmark nuclear agreement reached in 2015, but also cast doubt on the United State's continued support for the deal. http://on.wsj.com/2oM7o3T

    - Fox News is preparing to cut ties with star anchor Bill O'Reilly, according to people close to the situation, after revelations that he and Fox parent 21st Century Fox settled multiple sexual harassment complaints led to an exodus of advertisers from his show and mounting pressure on the network. http://on.wsj.com/2oMgLRr

    - Baidu Inc will share software technology it is developing for self-driving cars in a bid to catch up with competitors including General Motors Co and Waymo, the self-driving unit of Google parent Alphabet Inc. http://on.wsj.com/2oMesh7

    - Private-equity firms KKR & Co LP and Stone Point Capital, in a bet that more investors will want advice from independent financial advisers and less from Wall Street's traditional brokers, will acquire a majority stake in Focus Financial Partners Llc in a $2 billion deal. http://on.wsj.com/2oM7Ij7

    - The unusual attention paid to a special election in Georgia on Tuesday, as well as recent protests around the country over President Donald Trump's tax returns, show the presidential contest didn't end in November, at least for voters who didn't support the president. http://on.wsj.com/2oLYYK7

    - Voters cast ballots on Wednesday to choose Jakarta's governor in a runoff that has put Indonesian politics on edge, with pre-election polls showing the minority Christian incumbent neck and neck with a challenger riding a wave of hard-line Islam in the world's largest Muslim-majority nation. http://on.wsj.com/2oM8zAw


    FT

    * British Prime Minister Theresa May called on Tuesday for an early election on June 8, saying she needed to strengthen her hand in divorce talks with the European Union by bolstering support for her Brexit plan.

    * The International Monetary Fund revised Britain's growth forecast to 2 percent for 2017, up a half percentage point from January. The Fund said negative effects from the UK vote to leave the European Union are taking longer to materialize.

    * Post Holdings is buying leading British breakfast cereal brand Weetabix from China's Bright Food Group Co Ltd for 1.4 billion pounds ($1.80 billion), giving the U.S. focused company a European base on which to build.


    NYT

    - TV anchor Bill O'Reilly's position at Fox News grew increasingly tenuous on Tuesday as support from the Murdoch family showed signs of eroding, according to three people briefed on discussions about his future. O'Reilly's fate at the network is expected to be discussed on Thursday at a board meeting for Fox News's parent company, Twenty-First Century Century Fox Inc. http://nyti.ms/2pQiIeO

    - U.S. President Donald Trump, hammering his "America First" campaign theme, signed an order on Tuesday that he said would favor American companies for federal contracts and reform the visa program for foreign technical workers. http://nyti.ms/2pQtUIp

    - Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney general, said on Tuesday that his office had reached a $40 million settlement with Harbert Management Corporation and several of its top executives over allegations that they had not paid state taxes for some of the most profitable years. http://nyti.ms/2pQoA81

    - The International Monetary Fund has raised its outlook for global growth, citing a post-election surge in confidence in the United States, better prospects in large emerging markets and an uptick in global trade. The fund forecast a growth rate in 2017 of 3.5 percent, compared with 3.1 percent in 2016. http://nyti.ms/2pQdDDe

    - Snap Inc is introducing on Tuesday a new feature for its Snapchat ephemeral messaging service that will allow users to place 3-D cartoon objects into their videos and pictures. http://nyti.ms/2pQgz2G

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Parkland Fuel Corp is buying Chevron Corp's Canadian oil refining and marketing business for nearly C$1.5-billion. https://tgam.ca/2oro9Qf

    ** A NAFTA review panel has unanimously ordered the U.S. Department of Commerce to reconsider its costly duties against Canadian mills that produce glossy paper. https://tgam.ca/2orlKFm

    NATIONAL POST

    ** The Bank of Canada says Canadians should not be afraid that robots are about to steal their jobs. http://bit.ly/2oryPya

    ** An Air Canada Airbus A330 traveling from Montreal to London lost a wheel during take-off on Sunday night and still managed to arrive safely in what one airport worker called a "miracle" landing. http://bit.ly/2ormTg8

    ** Greater Toronto Airways plans to launch a new route that will connect the Kitchener-Waterloo-Toronto tech corridor. http://bit.ly/2orEaFN

    Britain

    The Times

    Flybe Group Plc's finance chief Philip de Klerk resigned from the struggling British airline dealing it a fresh blow as it prepares to nosedive into the red. De Klerk will become the next chief financial officer at the performance materials manufacturer Low & Bonar Plc. http://bit.ly/2oJFWFF

    Goldminer Asa Resource Group Plc has said that millions of dollars seem to have been transferred from its bank accounts without explanation, prompting the removal of its chief executive and finance director and halving the value of the shares. http://bit.ly/2peUqz4

    The Guardian

    Next Plc boss Lord Wolfson has missed out on his annual bonus for the first time in 18 years amid tough times on the British high street. Wolfson's total pay package dived by 58 percent to 1.8 million pounds ($2.31 million) in the year to 28 January, according to the fashion and homewares retailer’s annual report published on Tuesday. http://bit.ly/2oTaXaK

    Philip Hammond has signalled that the government is facing a multibillion pound loss from selling off its 73 percent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. The chancellor told MPs that "we have to live in the real world", as he indicated that the remaining shares could be sold below the 502 pence average price that was paid for them during 2008 and 2009 when 45 billion pounds of taxpayers' money was pumped into the Edinburgh-based bank. http://bit.ly/2oJKwSF

    The Telegraph

    The boss of German energy giant RWE has fuelled expectations that the company will target the UK energy market for future acquisitions. Rolf Martin Schmitz disclosed that the group is interested in owning power plants in countries where capacity margins are thin and the Government is willing to award contracts to secure power supplies. http://bit.ly/2pxQJ72

    Volkswagen has significantly beaten expectations by reporting a first-quarter operating profit of 4.4 billion euros, as cost controls and the success of new models kicked in. http://bit.ly/2oJF4AM

    Sky News

    The world's most famous department store is to throw the towel in on efforts to build a sizeable presence in the UK banking market by hoisting a 'for sale' sign over the loss-making division. Harrods Group has been interviewing prospective advisers about handling a disposal of its banking unit. http://bit.ly/2olgEek

    Anthony Browne is to quit as Britain's top bank lobbyist later this year as a new industry body begins to chart a course through the outcome of a snap General Election and the UK's exit from the European Union. http://bit.ly/2oJwNNw

    Independent

    The former owner of Jaeger, Harold Tillman, has accused bankers and private equity bosses of running the 133-year-old fashion chain into the ground. http://ind.pn/2pPYstE

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/frontrunning-april-19
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: Apr-19-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    The key headline is early UK snap polls in June. There will be big moves in the UK Pound and gold either a fortnight before or a fortnight after the UK election results are declared. The UK elections result will have a big impact on the medium term trend of precious metals as well as the US dollar. The period between 23rd May till 23rd June will be very crucial for gold bulls as well as cable bulls. I expect short covering in the cable before the UK elections.
     
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    Plungers Big Trade- Part III The Oil Short
    By: Plunger
    The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify.
     
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    Rogue Mornings - Shale Bubble, Questionable Dealings & Asia Powerhouse (04/19/2017)
    ROGUE MONEY



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    Gold And Silver Stalled And Momentum Retracing Into Support
    PreciousMetals Prices



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