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R.T.M. ~ Frontrunning ~ 3rd Ed., Vol.28 ~ July 10th - 14th

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by searcher, Jul 9, 2017.



  1. searcher

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    Kevin Lawton – Cryptos Are Speculation Not Currency
    Greg Hunter



    Published on Jul 9, 2017
    Kevin Lawton, recently wrote a Kindle short titled “Beyond the Bitcoin Trap: A Crypto Currency for Human 2.0” predicts, “This year is going to be the year of volatility in Bitcoin price. I expect liquidations, but it’s like a tug of war. There are reasons for people to tug the price up . . . then on the regulatory side, for example, prices could go down. Then someone could legitimize Bitcoin and you could get the price up. So, you got this tug of war going on. My big message is volatility, and know what’s going on so you can protect yourself. . . There is really not utility in using Bitcoin as a currency at the moment because of transaction speed and because of the price volatility. . .Bitcoin is still not very usable as a currency. . . . At this moment in history, crypto currencies are not really currencies. They’re a speculative bet. There are a lot of reasons for them to go up big, but there are reasons you could get completely monkey hammered.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with tech entrepreneur and published author Kevin Lawton, founder of TrendCaller.com.

    All Links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: http://usawatchdog.com/bitcoin-civil-...
     
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    Precious Metals Subsidies
    belangp



    Published on Jul 8, 2017
    Sometimes I feel like getting up and dancing. Price whack downs are wonderful, but are even better when they come with a tax subsidy!
     
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    Homogenous Metals Portfolio
    belangp



    Published on Jul 9, 2017
    A follow up to some comments I made on yesterday's video. How to pay (virtually) no taxes and yet stay within the bounds of the law.
     
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    REALIST NEWS - Jabroni / Riff Raff Update (Off Topic)
    jsnip4



    Published on Jul 10, 2017
     
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    Asian Metals Market Update: July-11-2017
    By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
    I am against selling gold, silver, copper and crude oil unless they fall below yesterday’s low. Once again there is not much economic data today. Physical demand in Asia and premiums will be the key to gold and silver prices today. A stronger demand along with firmer premiums will ensure that gold and silver rise today.
     
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    Gold and Silver Market Morning: July 11 2017 - Gold and silver want to confirm the bottom is in!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
    Both New York and London turned higher yesterday. New York rose to Shanghai’s level at the close yesterday and London today is pulling the gold price down leaving the differential with Shanghai at just over $9 lower than yesterday’s differential. All global gold markets are looking for a bottom still. But as we mentioned yesterday there is an almost osmotic pressure in London that is shifting physical gold to the Far East constantly, in line with the price differentials between London and Shanghai.
     
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    Frontrunning: July 11

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jul 11, 2017 7:58 AM

    • Trump Looks to Wall Street for Fed Bank Regulator (WSJ)
    • Rates play prods dollar to four-month high versus yen, kiwi dollar falls (Reuters)
    • Kaspersky Lab Has Been Working With Russian Intelligence (BBG)
    • Buffett’s Berkshire Moves Away From Stock Picking (WSJ)
    • OPEC's Barkindo says all producers should help balance market (Reuters)
    • China hits back at criticism over North Korea (Reuters)
    • North Korea’s Missile Might Not Survive Reentry, South Says (WSJ)
    • Trump's election panel puts hold on voter data request (Reuters)
    • Abe Seeks to Avoid Repeat of His Swift Demise a Decade Ago (BBG)
    • Oil falls as banks cut price forecasts (Reuters)
    • Europe Wary as U.S. Scrutinizes Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
    • Clearing Firms Simulate Lehman-Like Default During Brexit Chaos (BBG)
    • Winds Shift for Emerging-Market Debt (BBG)
    • Remember Peak Oil? Demand May Top Out Before Supply Does (BBG)
    • The Next Job Humans Lose to Robots: Real Estate Appraiser (BBG)
    • Goldman Was Vilified in Venezuela for Something Big Oil Does Every Day (BBG)
    • Electricity Overtook Fossil Fuels in Push for Investment in 2016 (BBG)
    • Greece's market return may be imminent: bankers, investors (Reuters)
    • Kushner Cos. Sought Qatar Funds as Jared Advised Trump (BBG)
    • Pearson Sinks as Investors Pan Dividend Plans Post-Penguin Sale (BBG)
    • U.S. Army soldier arrested in Hawaii on terrorism charges (Reuters)
    • Buffett’s ‘Big Bang’ Exceeds $27 Billion After Latest Gifts (BBG)
    • Livan Hernandez made $48 million playing baseball; now it’s all gone (MW)
    • Maybe ETFs Aren’t the Reason You Can’t Find Any Stocks to Buy (BBG)

    WSJ

    - U.S. President Donald Trump plans to put his first mark on the Federal Reserve by nominating Randal Quarles, an investment-fund manager and former Treasury official, to be the central bank's top bank regulator. on.wsj.com/2sYXDow

    - The Trump administration is moving toward tightening sanctions on North Korea, targeting Chinese banks and companies Washington says are funneling cash into Pyongyang's weapons program. on.wsj.com/2sYlGUy

    - Donald Trump Jr retained a private attorney on Monday and said he would work with congressional investigators who have sought his testimony as part of ongoing probes into whether the president's campaign colluded with Moscow to influence the election. on.wsj.com/2sYW8qi

    - Honda Motor said a man attempting to repair a Honda Accord died last year when a Takata air bag installed inside the car ruptured, bringing to a dozen the U.S. death toll stemming from the faulty safety devices. on.wsj.com/2sYWcGy

    - Edward Record, who joined J C Penney in 2014, will step down as chief financial officer but will remain in an advisory role through Aug. 7. on.wsj.com/2sZhqUZ

    - Newspaper publishers are calling on Congress to allow them to negotiate collectively with Google and Facebook as the duo increasingly dominate digital advertising and news distribution online. on.wsj.com/2sYZmKq

    - Microsoft unveiled a new bundled software offering that will leverage its dominant operating system and productivity applications to provide a boost to products that aren't as widely used. on.wsj.com/2sYoX6i

    FT

    - $27 billion ETF manager, ProShares, is preparing a trio of funds that profit from the woes of the traditional "brick and mortar" retailers, according to SEC filings.

    - Activist hedge fund Elliott Management openly challenged an $18 billion bid from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for the Texas utility Oncor. Elliott said he was ready to launch a rival bid worth $18.5 billion.

    - Bowing to pressure, Theresa May suspended a Conservative MP who used racist language, in a move that further erodes her party's already thin working majority in the House of Commons.

    - Just Eat renewed warnings over shortage of curry chefs in the UK and called on the government to loosen immigration rules and improve training in the sector.

    NYT

    - Dalian Wanda Group said it would sell its theme parks as part of a $9.3 billion deal with the property developer Sunac China Holdings Ltd, that includes 76 hotels and a major chunk of 13 tourism projects. nyti.ms/2u2CdXh

    - Germany's Siemens said a Russian customer had illegally shipped two power plant turbines to Crimea instead of their intended destination in southern Russia. nyti.ms/2u2V58J

    - Abercrombie & Fitch said it would end talks to sell itself. The company said it would instead focus on carrying out its own strategic plan as a stand-alone company. nyti.ms/2tIp2IA

    - President Trump on Monday named Randal K. Quarles, a former Treasury Department official, to serve as the Federal Reserve's top watchdog overseeing Wall Street and to play a leading role in the administration's plans to reduce financial regulation. nyti.ms/2u7qwym

    - Microsoft Corp plans to announce on Tuesday that it is harnessing the unused channels between television broadcasts, known as white spaces, to help get more of rural America online. nyti.ms/2tCinkF

    Canada

    THE GLOBE AND MAIL

    ** Wildfires in British Columbia have forced Canadian lumber mills to shut and were edging closer to a Kinder Morgan Inc oil pipeline as hot, dry weather sparked blazes across swathes of western Canada and the U.S. tgam.ca/2u3t291

    ** Cogeco Communications Inc is making a bigger bet on its U.S. strategy, looking for subscriber growth in mid-sized markets with a $1.4-billion (U.S.) deal to acquire the remainder of the MetroCast brand of cable assets it does not already own. tgam.ca/2v7mFP4

    ** Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has struck a deal to buy Geneva Advisors for up to $200 million, taking another step toward building a renewed presence in the United States. tgam.ca/2sZBRRD

    NATIONAL POST

    ** Lawyers for the widow of a U.S. soldier killed in Afghanistan will ask a Canadian court to freeze the $10.5-million settlement the federal government has paid to Omar Khadr. bit.ly/2u26lBW

    ** While some Canadians wait months to undergo medically necessary surgeries, public hospitals across the country are routinely providing operating-room space for cosmetic, privately paid operations, a National Post survey reveals. bit.ly/2v6RLpF

    Britain

    The Times

    * Hundreds of millions of pounds were erased from the value of Carillion Plc shares today after it warned on profits, parted ways with its chief executive and suspended its dividend to save cash. (bit.ly/2u1SPi2)

    * Talktalk Telecom Group Plc is hiring Kate Ferry to replace Iain Torrens, who is stepping down from his post as chief financial officer after two years. (bit.ly/2t7cTuQ)

    The Guardian

    * An aggressive tax avoidance scheme, linked to one of the recruitment industry's highest-profile names, is being liquidated in a move that could prevent HM Revenue and Customs from recouping millions of pounds. (bit.ly/2v5oSu2)

    * A drilling rig owned by P R Marriott Drilling Ltd, Britain's largest onshore deep drilling company, has been seriously vandalised, in a move seemingly intended to slow down the country's embryonic shale industry. (bit.ly/2sIapDK)

    The Telegraph

    * The Bank of England has fired a shot across the bows of lenders by warning it has detected a rise in risky creative accounting, in a move that could spur worries firms are returning to practices that sparked the financial crisis. (bit.ly/2uKKuwK)

    * Shares in defence giant BAE Systems Plc have risen after the High Court threw out a case trying to block arms sales by British companies to Saudi Arabia. (bit.ly/2tFNABZ)

    Sky News

    * The top City advisers hired to find a buyer for Co-operative Bank are in line for a 15 million pound ($19.31 million) payday despite the struggling lender turning to its existing investors to bail it out. (bit.ly/2ubhX6j)

    * Business leaders held separate talks with two Cabinet ministers on Monday, offering a further indication that Theresa May's chastened administration is determined to shake off its perceived pre-election antipathy towards the private sector. (bit.ly/2tZHKhv)

    The Independent

    * UK consumer spending has fallen to its lowest levels in nearly four years as rising living costs and stagnant wages continue to squeeze household incomes, new figures show. June rounded off the worst quarter for spending since the third quarter of 2013, according to Visa's Consumer Spending Index. (ind.pn/2txoNlb)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-11/frontrunning-july-11
     
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    REALIST NEWS - RED ALERT - InsureX Allegedly Hacked Last Night - DO NOT GET INTO THIS ICO
    jsnip4



    Published on Jul 11, 2017
     
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    END OF THE MIDDLE CLASS - The Number Of Americans That Can’t Afford Their Own Homes Has Doubled
    Elite NWO Agenda



    Published on Jul 11, 2017
    END OF THE MIDDLE CLASS - The Number Of Americans That Can’t Afford Their Own Homes Has Doubled

    Have you lost your spot in the middle class yet? For years I have been documenting all of the numbers that show that the middle class in America has been steadily shrinking, and we just got another one. According to a report that was produced by researchers at Harvard University, the number of Americans that spend more than 30 percent of their incomes on housing has more than doubled. In 2001, nearly 16 million Americans couldn’t afford the homes that they were currently living in, but by 2015 that figure had jumped to 38 million.

    When I write about “economic collapse”, I am writing about a process that has been unfolding for decades in this country. Back in the early 1970s, well over 60 percent of all Americans were considered to be “middle class”, but now that number has fallen below 50 percent. Never before in our history has the middle class been a minority of the population, but that is where we are at now, and the middle class continues to get even smaller with each passing day.

    So these new numbers saddened me, but they didn’t exactly surprise me.

    Over 38 million American households can’t afford their housing, an increase of 146 percent in the past 16 years, according to a recent Harvard housing report.

    Under federal guidelines, households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs are considered “cost burdened” and will have difficulty affording basic necessities like food, clothing, transportation and medical care.

    But the number of Americans struggling with their housing costs has risen from almost 16 million in 2001 to 38 million in 2015, according to the Census data crunched in the report. That’s more than double.

    Sometimes people try to convince me that the economy is doing “well”, but when I ask them how they are doing personally the news is almost always dreary. I know so many people that are working for close to minimum wage that used to be solidly in the middle class.

    One of the biggest reasons why the middle class is shrinking is because paychecks are staying about the same while the cost of living continues to rise steadily. Of course one of the biggest factors in the rise of the cost of living is health insurance.

    There are many people out there that have seen their health insurance premiums double since Obamacare went into effect. And one health insurance company actually tried to do this to me and my family too, and so at that time I immediately switched carriers.

    But even though virtually every single Republican in Congress campaigned on repealing Obamacare, it doesn’t look like it is going to happen. In fact, on Sunday Senator John McCain told Face the Nation that the effort to repeal Obamacare is “probably going to be dead”…

    Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said Sunday the Republican bill to repeal and replace Obamacare is “probably going to be dead.”

    “My view is that it’s probably going to be dead,” he said on CBS’s Face the Nation.

    Support for the bill has been eroding over the July 4th recess, and McCain said he believes Republicans should work with Democrats to craft health care legislation.

    So many families are living on the edge right now. Various surveys have discovered that somewhere around two-thirds of the entire nation is living paycheck to paycheck at least part of the time, and one study found that 69 percent of all Americans do not have an adequate emergency fund.

    Every month, more Americans fall out of the middle class and into poverty. Even during this so-called “economic recovery”, we are seeing alarming spikes in poverty all over the nation. For example, the number of homeless people living on the street in New York City has increased by 39 percent over the past year… economy savings "savings account" "middle class" USA America "united states" 2017 2018 dollar USD "Save money" university "harvard university" home housing rent mortgage life living rental "rent apartment" NYC LA "New York City" lifestyle population money wealth cash debt "credit card" credit loan "interest rate" income job employment "minimum wage" salary benefits paycheck "cost of living" "low rent" cheap "health insurance" healthcare sale shopping

    And bankruptcies continue to rise as well. Consumer bankruptcies were up once again last month, and commercial bankruptcies continue their very disturbing climb…

    Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies – an effort to restructure the business, rather than liquidating it – jumped 16% year-over-year in June to 581 filings across the US. Total commercial bankruptcies of all types, by large corporations to tiny sole proprietorships, rose 2% year-over-year to 3,385 filings, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. This was up 39% from June 2015 and up 18% from June 2014.
     
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    Shipping & Energy 07/11:

    Peak Oil Review: July 10, 2017
    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-07-10/peak-oil-review-july-10-2017/

    Rig Count: Rotary Rig Count and Workover Rig Count

    Oil Price Under Pressure from Rising US Crude Oil Production and Rig Count

    NITC Says Oil Shipments to Europe Increasing

    Sinopec signs offshore wind platform deal with Huayan New Energy

    Oil Under Pressure As Saudis Break Key Promise
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Under-Pressure-As-Saudis-Break-Key-Promise.html

    Oil and Gas Spending Continues to Drop
    http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/oil-and-gas-spending-continues-to-drop

    Number of Containers Lost at Sea Falling, Survey Shows
    http://gcaptain.com/number-of-containers-lost-at-sea-falling-survey-shows/

    Shell Mulls LNG-Hub Network as Use by Ships and Trucks Expands

    TUI sheds its stake in Hapag-Lloyd to focus on tourism

    Cosco Deal to Make Ex-Hong Kong Chief, Family $1 Billion Richer

    Piracy success story: how Russia extorted from Delta Tankers $50 mil
    http://maritimebulletin.net/2017/07...ow-russia-extorted-from-delta-tankers-50-mil/

    VLCC plagued with oversupply despite strong fixture activity
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/vlcc-plagued-with-oversupply-despite-strong-fixture-activity/

    EVERYONE WANTS A SUPRAMAX
    http://www.alibrashipping.com/b/everyone-wants-a-panama

    Homeward Bound?

    VLCC Newbuilding Orders During 2017 Already Triple Those of the Whole of 2016
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...17-already-triple-those-of-the-whole-of-2016/

    Baltic Dry Index climbs to 830, up 10 points
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-climbs-to-830-up-10-points/

    Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Facing Difficulties
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-market-facing-difficulties/

    Live International Companies’ Shipping Stocks
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/live-international-shipping-stocks/
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Again
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
    Gold saw slight losses in Asia and London and dropped to as low as $1208.30 in late morning New York trade, but it then jumped to as high as $1217.40 in midafternoon action and ended with a gain of 0.19%. Silver rose to as high as $15.85 and ended with a gain of 1.15%.
     
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    TVR [#333] 07-11-2017 END OF DAY REPORT - CRYPTO GOLD SILVER MINERS AND MOMENTUM TIME FRAMES
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Jul 11, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    50 Million Oz Dumped - Silver Market is Rigged! | Rob Kirby
    SilverDoctors



    Published on Jul 11, 2017
    https://sdbullion.com
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

    50 million ounces of silver was just dumped on the market in one minute…

    Who was behind this silver dump? Derivatives expert Rob Kirby thinks it is the work of the U.S. government. He says the Exchange Stabilization Fund is manipulating gold and silver prices in order to support the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. But he says the demand for physical metal will outstrip the ability of the riggers to manipulate the price…
     
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    All Eyes On Yellen As Dollar Slumps On Trump Revelations, Stocks Rebound

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jul 12, 2017 6:53 AM


    The dollar was broadly weaker after dovish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard amid reverberations from reports of Donald Trump Jr.’s contact with a Russian lawyer; European equities rebounded with oil while S&P futures were 0.2% higher at 2,428; Treasury yields are 1-2bps lower across the curve with the 10y at 2.346% ahead of Yellen’s much anticipated testimony this morning (House today, Senate tomorrow) for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy while the Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates later.

    The release of emails by President Donald Trump’s son that said Russia backed his father’s presidential campaign curbed demand for fresh dollar longs, according European traders cited by Bloomberg. The U.S. currency was also weighed down by dovish comments from Federal Reserve’s Lael Brainard.

    [​IMG]


    As Bloomberg further notes, investors now look for Yellen to offer some guidance on the timing of a potential shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet and also on the outlook for inflation and interest rates. The greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers and pared losses as measured by the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index after some profit-taking in euro longs and as the pound dropped toward $1.28. The U.S. currency orbited the 1.29 level versus the loonie before the Bank of Canada’s much awaited policy decision.

    Comments overnight from two of Yellen's colleagues calling for caution on further interest rate rises have pushed back the probability of a hike again before the end of the year to 50 percent, according to the CME's Fed watch data.

    "The Yellen testimony remains the key event risk in today's session but we remain optimistic about the dollar's outlook and putting on a long position against the sterling is the best way to execute that view," said Adam Cole, head of FX at RBC.

    Some more thoughts on Yellen's speech from DB's Jim Reid: "For today, will Mrs Yellen choose to reinforce the recent more hawkish global central bank speak or will she attempt to pull things back a little? DB expect her to reinforce the message from the June 14 post-FOMC press conference and continue to guide the market towards an announcement of the beginning of balance sheet normalisation at the September 20 meeting as well as a rate hike by year-end. There will be plenty of eyes on Yellen’s comments around inflation too and our US economists expect the Chair to stick to the script that the recent pause is likely due to transitory factors. So it’s worth seeing if there is any change from this mantra."

    A pushback on further Fed tightening will be questions about the trajectory of US wages, and specifically why growth remains so anemic.

    [​IMG]

    Distractions from the White House come as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen prepares to give two days of testimony that will be dissected for clues on when she will start shrinking central bank bond holdings, while the Bank of Canada is expected to hike interest rates Wednesday. The release of emails by the younger Trump about his controversial meeting may give the Fed pause as it seeks to dismantle a decade of monetary stimulus, according to market strategist Bill Blain of Mint Partners, a global brokerage firm in London. “The pressure on markets and gridlock on Washington spending plans is probably enough to keep the Fed from doing anything extraordinary,” Blain said in a note to clients.

    While the Federal Reserve chair is expected to say that the Fed remains on a hawkish course of steadily rising rates, any signals on how the bank is viewing a retreat in inflation and muted wage growth will be closely watched.

    The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.6 percent, led by automakers and energy companies, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.7 percent. S&P 500 futures were steady.

    Crude oil and WTI has tested the $46.00 handle this morning finding upside momentum from the latest API inventory data last night which showed the biggest draw down in crude stockpiles since September 2016 (-8.13mln vs Exp. 2.45mln) with Cushing coming in at -2.028mln, the largest draw since February 2014 according to Amplify Trading. As ever, the US output number will be key in this afternoon’s DoE release and in the interim period we have the OPEC monthly oil market report coming out shortly after midday, a report that should give insight into compliance levels and the strength of global demand.

    Alongside the Dollar's decline, the aussie and yen outperformed G-10 peers; emerging market currencies were led higher by won. Sovereign yields drifted lower following yesterday's Trump Jr revelations; T-note yield down two basis points at 2.34%. The Nikkei slipped 0.6% while in China the PBOC injected liquidity for a second day; The yuan strengthened after official central bank publication called for wider trading band and less government intervention; H-shares and Hang Seng rally. WTI crude holds onto API-inspired overnight gains; Dalian iron ore 0.8% higher. The pound rebounded after U.K. payrolls data beat estimates and unemployment fell to a 42-year low. That offset an earlier decline following a report a key Bank of England policy maker isn’t in favor of higher rates.

    Overnight, attention again shifted on Kuroda and whether the BOJ would intervene in the bond market to extend yield curve control to other sectors besides the benchmark 10-year after the recent jump in bond yields; After yesterday's 5Y bond auction which saw strong demand, the central bank raised purchases of 3-5yr debt to JPY330b at its regular bond buying operation from JPY300b on July 5; it left purchases of 1-3yr at JPY280b and 5-10 yr at JPY500b. Response to BOJ’s offer to purchase was varied; the 5-10yr bid-to-cover ratio rose to 3.42 from 3.10 at the previous operation on July 7; the 1-3 yr bid-cover ratio fell to 3.75 from 4.14 at last operation on July 5 while 3-5yr ratio declined to 3.69 versus 3.87 at same auction. Japanese yields fell after the operation with 10-yr declining 0.5bp to 0.9%, retreating further from psychological 0.1% level; the 5-yr yield dropped 1bp to -0.04% after rising to -0.035% earlier this week

    WTI crude climbed 2 percent to $45.96 a barrel. Gold was little changed at $1,218.90 an ounce. U.S. crude producers are set to pump record amounts of the commodity next year, but less so than previously projected, according to the latest government estimates. OPEC monthly market report is due today. In commodity markets, oil prices got a reprieve from worries about oversupply after the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as fuel inventories plunged. Brent crude futures rose 1.3 percent while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 2 percent.

    Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk
    • Asian equities traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall Street with political tension mounting amid the Trump Jr email revelations
    • A beat in UK data, however a dovish Broadbent leaves GBP undecided
    • Looking ahead, highlights include the OPEC monthly report, BoC rate decision, DoEs, Fed's Yellen
    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 Futures up 0.2% at 2428.50
    • EUR/USD: -0.2% at 1.1446
    • USD/JPY: -0.5% to 113.36
    • GBP/USD: +0.1% at 1.2857
    • WTI Crude: +1.8% to $45.86/bbl
    • U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: -2bp to 2.34%
    Top Overnight News
    • Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies to Congress amid strong job market and low inflation
    • Donald Trump Jr. said that he never told his father about a meeting last year with a person he was told would be a Russian government lawyer with potentially damaging information on Hillary Clinton
    • President Donald Trump’s credibility took a sharp blow after his son released emails that directly contradict months of assertions that investigations of possible campaign collusion with Russia were nothing more than a partisan “witch hunt”
    • National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is the leading candidate to replace Janet Yellen as Fed chair next year, Politico says, citing four people close to the process
    • Pimco’s CIO Dan Ivascyn says news that Donald Trump Jr. met with a Russian lawyer described as having potentially damaging information on Hillary Clinton during last year’s presidential campaign dims the U.S. economic outlook
    • Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said he’s not ready to vote for higher interest rates, even though he sees pressures to do so building up
    • U.K. pay adjusted for inflation drops 0.5% between March and May, as unemployment falls to 4.5% -- lowest since 1975
    • Fed’s Mester says reversing QE sooner rather than later preferable; Kashkari says he’s looking for wage pickup to precede inflation
    • France to cut taxes by about EU11 billion, PM Philippe tells Les Echos
    • Billionaires Warren Buffett and Paul Singer cross paths in pursuit of Oncor Electric Delivery Co.
    • China should widen the yuan’s trading band, PBOC newspaper says
    • BOJ increases purchases of 3-5-year JGBs at regular QE operation
    • API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude -8.1m; Cushing -2.0m; Gasoline -0.8m; Distillates +2.1m
    • Oil majors face ratings cuts amid weak recovery, S&P Global says
    • Saudi is said to cut Aug. oil exports by 600,000 B/D: Reuters
    • Total starts work at biggest Qatari oil field to maintain output
    • Saudi is said to exceed oil-output cap for first time
    • Abe said to have urged Xi to halt oil exports to N. Korea: Nikkei
    Asian markets traded in mixed fashion following a relatively indecisive lead from Wall Street. ASX 200 (-0.96%) underperformed with all but one sector (materials) trading in the red, while the Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) slipped amid JPY buying. The Shanghai Comp (-0.17%) conformed to the tone with the index trading with marginal losses despite another PBoC injection, with the Hang Seng (+0.64%) today's outperformer breaking above 26,000 amid the surge higher in financials. In fixed income, JGB yields ticked lower with the curve slightly steeper, while the BoJ also increased their purchases of 3-5Y bonds.
    PBoC injected CNY 40bIn in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 30bIn in 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7868 (Prey. 6.7983)

    European bourses trade in the green as the futures bounced following the release of Trump Jr's email chain, confirming he had contact with Russian representatives. Energy is the clear out performer, as the out performance in the oil complex bolsters the energy names. The other 9 sectors in the Stoxx 600 also all trade in the green, as Burberry out-performs amid the beat in their retail sales and as a result, bolstering the other retail brands. Fixed Income have seen a slow grind, likely affected by yesterday's political concerns emerging out the US. The data filled day sees paper on sale, with 10-years in focus as Germany and the US are both set for auctions. Spreads will be watched, with the Italy/Germany flat on the day, holding the 177bps region. UK paper has seen some early volatility with Gilts seeing a slight uptick following Broadbent's dovish comments.

    In currencies, the busy data day began with the UK employment data, strong average weekly earnings, supported by ILO unemployment falling to 4.5% did prove strong reading for the UK, however, many do still stay bullish GBP/USD, as some investors could see this data release as a selling opportunity. The greenback is likely to await Yellen's testimony, expected at 15.00 BST, with a text pre-release due at 13.30 BST, with CAD awaiting the latest BoC interest rate decision. As many stay FX traders remain conserved following a busy US evening and ahead of these events, USD trade has been subdued. However, post yesterday's close JPY was the main beneficiary from Trump Jr's email chain publication, with rising yields continuing to pose a risk.

    In commodities, oil out-performance was a result of the API inventories where the headline crude inventories fell 8.1 min bbls compared to expectations of a 2.9min bbl decline. A draw in gasoline stocks also supported the energy complex, lower by 801 k bbls compared to a forecast for a 1.1 min bbl build. Further support came from the EIA yesterday, downgrading its production outlook for next year, now expecting a 570K BPD increase, prey. 680K. WTI once again traded through USD 45/bbl and is looking towards 46.00, with the next resistance level expected around the 46.60 area. The Precious metal complex continues to bounce, with gold finding a slowdown around the 1220 level, if this can be broken, we can expect an attack of the previously rejected 1228 level. Silver and platinum have also followed gold, in finding support in recent trade.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the UK June employment data came out printing at 4.5%, below the expected 4.6%. In the US the key event is obviously the Yellen testimony at 10am. Away from that, while there is no data due out the Beige Book will be released in the evening. The Fed’s George will also speak at 2.15pm, while it’s worth also keeping an eye on the BoC monetary policy decision where the consensus is for a 25bp hike.

    US Event Calendar
    • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications; Jul 7, prior 1.4%
    • 8:30am: Fed releases Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress
    • 10am: Yellen to appear before U.S. House panel
    • 2pm: Fed releases Beige Book
    • 2:15pm: Fed’s George speaks in Denver on economic outlook
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    We've had a bit more excitement this week than financial markets have but yesterday saw things liven up a little (see below) and we now also reach the business end of this quiet week so far. Today we have Yellen's testimony to the House which she'll repeat tomorrow to the Senate with Q&A to follow. Today’s speech is due at 3pm BST however Congress is scheduled to release Yellen’s testimony at 1.30pm BST. In addition we have US PPI (tomorrow) and US CPI (Friday). Friday also sees US retail sales and three major US banks reporting. So plenty of life yet in a dull week.

    For today, will Mrs Yellen choose to reinforce the recent more hawkish global central bank speak or will she attempt to pull things back a little? DB expect her to reinforce the message from the June 14 post-FOMC press conference and continue to guide the market towards an announcement of the beginning of balance sheet normalisation at the September 20 meeting as well as a rate hike by year-end. There will be plenty of eyes on Yellen’s comments around inflation too and our US economists expect the Chair to stick to the script that the recent pause is likely due to transitory factors. So it’s worth seeing if there is any change from this mantra.

    Markets got a bit of a warm-up yesterday with a host of central bank speak over the course of the day. Over at the ECB we heard from board member Benoit Coeure who focused most of his comments on the impact of QE and negative rates on currency depreciation. The bigger focus leading into the day however was on the BoE’s Broadbent who’s exact position on the BoE dove-hawk scale is still a little open for debate. His speech ended up being a bit of an anticlimax however after steering clear of any comments on monetary policy and instead focusing much of it on the impact of a significant curtailment of trade with Europe post Brexit. Away from that Germany’s Merkel also made a rare comment on the ECB, saying that “we’re not yet back to where we want to be in terms of the ECB’s monetary policy” but that “the good news is that all euro zone member states are growing again”. European bond markets were broadly speaking another 1-5bps higher in yield yesterday while equity markets were a fair bit weaker (Stoxx 600 -0.65%) not helped by the headlines emerging out of Washington late in the session.

    Indeed across the pond, we had a very minor flash crash yesterday with the S&P 500 falling 15 points in around 20 minutes which seemed to coincide with Donald Trump's son releasing email exchanges with a Russian lawyer from last year that indicated the Russian government was trying to damage Mrs Clinton and backing his father’s presidential campaign. Markets quickly recovered their losses over the next 3 hours but the S&P 500 still closed down -0.08%. Treasury yields also fell a few basis points following the headlines but the end of day move was also fairly muted with the 10y ending 1.3bps lower (for the second day in a row) at 2.361%. The USD (-0.37%) was a bit weaker while Gold (+0.28%) found a bit of a bid. Oil continues to chop around in a tight range but is testing $46/bbl again this morning having closed just north of $44/bbl last week.

    This morning in Asia it’s been a largely directionless session. The Nikkei (-0.31%), Shanghai Comp (-0.29%) and ASX (-0.75%) have all dipped lower, while the Kospi is flat and the Hang Seng up +0.72%. The latter is now up nearly +3% this week and above the 26,000 level. Previously the index had stalled in June as it approached what is seen as a key breakthrough level. Meanwhile the BoJ announced this morning that it is to boost purchases for 3y to 5y JGBs in a bid to cap the recent rise in yields. 1y to 3y and 5y to 10y maturity purchases were left unchanged.

    Staying with the overnight news, it’s worth noting that Politico also ran a story suggesting that Gary Cohn – the current National Economic Council Director and ex Goldman Sachs President – is favourite to land the Fed Chair job and replace Yellen next year with Trump increasingly unlikely to nominate Yellen for a second term. There also appears to be a bit of movement on the US health-care bill with Bloomberg running a story suggesting that Senate Republican leaders have dropped provisions that would repeal two taxes on higher earners in a revised draft of the bill. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell supposedly told reporters that a revised bill could be released on Thursday followed by a new CBO estimate and procedural vote in the coming week. So potentially another backend- of-the-week event for markets to digest too.

    Back to yesterday, there was also a bit of chatter from some of Yellen’s colleagues. The overall tone was a shade dovish. Governor Brainard said that “the neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain close to zero in real terms over the medium term” and that “if that is the case, we would not have much more additional work to do on moving to a neutral stance”. She did however add to the chorus of officials in supporting a start to reducing the balance sheet “soon”. The Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari said that he is still looking for signs that wage growth is picking up.

    Yesterday’s economic data didn’t really move the dial. The only reports of note were out of the US where first of all we saw the NFIB small business optimism survey dip 0.9pts to 103.6 in June (vs. 104.4 expected) putting it over 2pts below the January high. Away from that the BLS JOLTS report for May saw job openings fall from 5.97m to 5.67m however the quits rate did edge up one-tenth to 2.2%. Finally the wholesale inventories print for May was revised up one-tenth versus the initial flash estimate to +0.4% mom.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll be kicking off in the UK where the May and June employment data is due out. Also due out this morning is the May industrial production report for the Euro area (+1.0% mom expected). This afternoon in the US the key event is obviously the Yellen testimony at 3pm BST. Away from that, while there is no data due out the Beige Book will be released in the evening. The Fed’s George will also speak at 7.15pm, while it’s worth also keeping an eye on the BoC monetary policy decision where the consensus is for a 25bp hike.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ollar-slumps-trump-revelations-stocks-rebound
     
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    Frontrunning: July 12

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jul 12, 2017 8:00 AM

    • Yellen to Address Interest Rates, Balance Sheet (WSJ)
    • Stocks Rebound as Dollar Dips on Trump Revelations (BBG)
    • Trump Jr.'s Russia emails could trigger probe under election law (Reuters)
    • Trump Jr. Emails Fan the Flames of Russia Probe (WSJ)
    • Trump’s Credibility Dealt Blow by His Son’s Emails (BBG)
    • Kremlin 'has nothing to do' with Russian lawyer who contacted Trump's team (Reuters)
    • Google Pays Professors to Boost Washington Influence (WSJ)
    • Senators Explore Bipartisan ‘Plan B’ for Troubled GOP Health Bill (BBG)
    • GOP Drops Tax Cuts for the Wealthy in Revised Health Bill (BBG)
    • Giant iceberg breaks off Antarctica (Reuters)
    • Mexico Oil Privatization Pays Off With Billion-Barrel Find (BBG)
    • What Did Sheldon Adelson Get for His $200 Million? (BBG)
    • Wray to Face Tough Questions in Hearing to Become FBI Chief (WSJ)
    • China sends troops to open first overseas military base in Djibouti (Reuters)
    • Venezuela’s Golden Boy Is Out of Jail. That May Be a Problem (BBG)
    • Hotel Money Is Funding Anti-Airbnb Sting Operations (BBG)
    • Miners Dig High to Hunt for the Most Valuable Diamonds (WSJ)
    • Wal-Mart Will Punish Its Suppliers for Delivering Late — or Early (BBG)
    • Trump Targets Local Tax Write-Off, But May Hit House Republicans (BBG)
    • Paul Singer Could Finally Get Warren Buffett to Punch Back (BBG)
    • One Game Warren Buffett Doesn’t Play: Chicken (WSJ)
    • This Bartender Turned His Dining Room Into a Walk-In Liquor Closet (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Paul Singer's Elliott Management is working on a rival offer that could put pressure on Berkshire Hathaway to raise its $9 billion bid last week for bankrupt Energy Future Holdings. on.wsj.com/2t2m0BR

    - U.S. President's eldest son and senior campaign aides attended a meeting last year to discuss allegedly incriminating information about Hillary Clinton they were told was being offered by the Russian government in support of Donald Trump's candidacy, according to emails Donald Trump Jr released Tuesday. on.wsj.com/2t2wuBb

    - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, ratcheting up the pressure on fellow Republicans, set a vote on the GOP health-care bill for next week and delayed the chamber's August recess to give the party time to seek other legislative wins, even if the health plan stalls. on.wsj.com/2t2yhWR

    - North Korea's recently tested long-range missile might not be able to survive the intense heat and vibration of re-entering the atmosphere, said South Korea's intelligence agency. on.wsj.com/2t2Ct95

    - Twitter Inc tapped former Goldman Sachs and Intuit executive Ned Segal to be its new finance chief, as it addresses a list of vacancies created at the social-messaging company over the past year. on.wsj.com/2t2mk3x

    - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen heads to Capitol Hill on Wednesday to address the House Financial Services Committee in her twice-yearly Humphrey Hawkins testimony and to take questions from lawmakers. on.wsj.com/2t2uBnR

    NYT

    - Takata Corp has added a further 2.7 million airbags to the nation's largest automobile industry recall after a new hazard was detected in testing. nyti.ms/2ugWid9

    - Pearson PLC is raising about $1 billion by selling almost half of its 47 percent stake in Penguin Random House. nyti.ms/2ugQQqB

    - Makers of cardiac defibrillators, insulin pumps, breast implants and other medical devices might be able to delay reporting dangerous malfunctions to the Food and Drug Administration under an agreement heading for a vote in Congress. nyti.ms/2tGWDUV

    - The United Auto Workers said a petition for a union election had been filed by employees at a Nissan plant in Mississippi with more than 6,000 workers. They asked for a vote within a month. nyti.ms/2tHdHKp

    - A coalition of American states, cities, businesses and investors are moving to uphold the United States' commitments under the Paris deal. nyti.ms/2tGTLr4

    Canada

    The Globe and Mail

    ** Wildfires in British Columbia have forced the shutdown of several forestry operations in areas near the blazes, adding further uncertainty to an industry already hit by U.S. duties on Canadian softwood lumber. tgam.ca/2u3t291

    ** The chairman of Swiss banking giant UBS AG is throwing his support behind Canada's plans to create a federal infrastructure bank, saying aspects of the plan could provide a "blue-print" for financing global investments. tgam.ca/2uhElLb

    ** Ottawa-based investment bank Sampford Advisors is expanding and hoping it can make a dent in the competitive Toronto market for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advice. Sampford recently opened a Toronto office and is targeting private technology deals in the $10-million to $100-million range. tgam.ca/2t2Rd82
    National Post

    ** British Columbia wildfires are hurting the province's resource industry, forcing the closure of lumber mills, disrupting mining operations and threatening a natural gas pipeline. bit.ly/2sP0pIO

    ** Low fuel costs and a strengthening Canadian dollar are proving to be tailwinds for Canadian airlines, leading analysts to boost their earnings estimates ahead of next month’s quarterly results. bit.ly/2sP0CM6 (

    Britain

    The Times

    *Pearson Plc has offloaded almost half of its holding in Penguin Random House in a complex transaction that means that the publisher can return 300 million pounds ($385.53 million) cash to shareholders. (bit.ly/2ufJmnF)

    *HSBC Holdings Plc has said that France's plans to loosen its employment rules make relocating there more attractive. (bit.ly/2tKYaHV)

    The Guardian

    *Britain's economy will lose momentum both this year and next as the squeeze on living standards caused by higher inflation outweighs the benefits for exports of a cheaper pound, Standard & Poor's has predicted. (bit.ly/2uMPa5e)

    *Lloyds Bank is to radically change the way it charges for overdrafts on its 20 million accounts, including those at Halifax and Bank of Scotland, in a move it claims will leave most customers better off – although one in 10 could pay significantly more. (bit.ly/2uOWv4c)

    The Telegraph

    *Discount fashion chain Store Twenty One, has gone into liquidation, resulting in the loss of 900 jobs. (bit.ly/2sNT3Fq)

    *Amec Foster Wheeler Plc is being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office over its dealings with Unaoil over possible bribery and corruption through payments to middlemen. (bit.ly/2u6qjvF)

    Sky News

    *Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase & Co , says the scale of the bank's operations in London can effectively be decided by the EU after Brexit. (bit.ly/2uOF57T)

    *Marks & Spencer Group Plc Chief Executive Steve Rowe said his turnaround plan for the retailer was on track as its sales decline slowed in the first quarter and it scaled back discounting and end-of-season offers. (bit.ly/2tDm8Gr)

    The Independent

    *French bank Societe Generale could move 400 banking jobs from London to Paris as a result of Brexit, chief executive Frederic Oudea has said. (ind.pn/2t0HbnP)

    *German discount supermarket chain Aldi is creating 4,000 new jobs in the UK, a move that will deal a sharp blow to some of the UK's biggest retailers who have suffered from fierce competition for market share. (ind.pn/2tIWdLW)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-12/frontrunning-july-12
     
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    Gold and Silver Market Morning: July 12 2017 - Gold and silver have confirmed the bottom is in!
    By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch
    The gold price has confirmed the bottom is in and it rose to $1,219 this morning in London. The support at the $1,200 level is very large. But you will note that in the euro, it has barely moved. We see the weakening dollar playing a strong role in the dollar gold price going forward. This means that we must gauge the gold price by looking at it in different currencies as well as the dollar.
     
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    Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain For The Third Day In A Row
    By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com
    Gold edged above $1220 in Asia and fell back to $1214.20 by a little after 8AM EST before it popped up to $1225.40 in the next hour of trade and then drifted back lower at times, but it still ended with a gain of 0.32%. Silver rose to as high as $16.023 ended with a gain of 0.51%.
     
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    TVR [#335] 07-12-2017 END OF DAY REPORT - CRYPTO CURRENCIES EXPLODE, GOLD, SILVER SURGES
    ALGO CAPITALIST



    Published on Jul 12, 2017
    Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
     
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    REALIST NEWS - MAN does SilverGoldMan have a SilverGold Man-Crush on ME!!
    jsnip4



    Published on Jul 13, 2017
     
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    Global Stocks Hit New All Time High After Dovish Yellen, Strong Chinese Trade Data

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jul 13, 2017 6:39 AM


    The hawkish tone and global bond tantrum unleashed by central bankers at the Sintra ECB forum two weeks ago is now a distant memory, and after Janet Yellen surprised markets with an unexpectedly dovish (in the market's interpretation) testimony yesterday, overnight global shares hit their fourth all-time high in less than a month as concerns about the tightening Fed were laid to rest, sending September and December rate hike odds sliding.

    [​IMG]

    One of the Fed chief's comments that markets latched on to was her view that bank would not need to raise U.S. rates "all that much further" to reach current low estimates of the "neutral" funds rate. Yellen's dovish relent lifted Wall Street to a new all time high, while lowering bond yields virtually everywhere and sending the MSCI All-Country World Index to a fresh record while European shares headed for their biggest two-day gain in almost three months.

    [​IMG]


    Yellen’s testimony had the added impact of diverting attention from Trump Jr.’s emails about his meeting with a Russian lawyer, which sent stocks sliding on Tuesday, though concern remains that the latest saga in Washington will likely delay, perhaps permanently, Trump's fiscal reform efforts. The dovish Fed also sent the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to the lowest since September while gold climbed.

    "Dollar positioning is short and yesterday's testimony just confirmed what the market believed: that the Fed is not going to be able to be as hawkish as they are suggesting," BofA's Athanasios Vamvakidis said in a note.


    "It mostly seems to be down to Yellen," Rabobank quantitative analyst Bas Van Geffen told Reuters. "The fact that it seems like the Fed is going to take it slowly is being seen as a good sign by the equity markets and by the currency markets."

    So with much of the debate in the market surrounding Yellen’s comments around inflation, its timely that today we’ll get the June PPI report followed then by the June CPI report tomorrow. With regards to the former, the market consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline reading and a +0.2% mom increase in the core reading. What will be worth keeping an eye on is the health care services component of the PPI which will provide clues on the near-term direction of the core PCE deflator which as we know is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Something to look forward to.

    Like equities, Treasuries rallied in reaction to Yellen, with yields on two-year notes falling to three-week lows, as did bonds in Europe and Asia. Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield was flat on the day at 0.51 percent. They have now given back a quarter of the rise triggered by last month's hint from ECB head Mario Draghi that it was readying to scale back stimulus. Treasuries meanwhile have clawed back a third of their selloff.

    "The market did perceive a greater degree of anxiety over inflation – at the margin," said Westpac's U.S. economist, Elliot Clarke. "To our mind, this is unlikely to get in the way of another hike this year."

    "Two further hikes in 2018 will likely be justified by conditions. However, the case for additional hikes thereafter is nowhere near being made."

    It wasn't just Yellen. Bullish sentiment got another boost when China reported upbeat data on exports and imports for June, in what was seen as a sign that global trade is finding some real traction again, helping push Asian shares up more than 1 percent. As shown below, every single indicator not only rebounded from May, but also beat expectations, while the Chinese trade balance rose to $294.3bn in June, above the $275.1bn expected.
    • Imports (CNY)(Jun) Y/Y 23:1% vs. Exp. 22.3% (Prey. 22.1%)
    • Exports (CNY)(Jun) Y/Y 17.3% vs. Exp. 14.6% (Prey. 15.5%) Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jun) 42.8B vs. Exp. 42.6B (Prey. 40.79B)
    • Imports (USD)(Jun) Y/Y 17.2% vs. Exp. 14.5% (Prey. 14.8%)
    • Exports (USD)(Jun) Y/Y 11.3% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prey. 8.7%)
    [​IMG]

    A quick macro recap of the overnight trading sessions via Bloomberg:
    • ASIA: USD/JPY steady after touching a high of 113.53, with Japan’s govt bond yields down after strong 20-year bond auction results. Asia’s emerging-market currencies rose, led by the won, as Yellen stuck to gradual approach to tightening. CAD strengthened after Bank of Canada’s first interest-rate increase in almost seven years contributing to dollar weakness.
    • EUROPE: EUR/USD initially higher on expectations ECB could send hawkish signals at its meeting next week, with bund futures volumes picking up, as benchmark 10y bund falls below 0.50% -- a breach above that level was earlier widely seen as sell-off catalyst. However the Euro has dropped to session lows following the European open.

    It has been a mostly green European session across asset classes, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.5% adding to Wednesday’s 1.5 percent gain. Telecoms and retailers led gains. Bloomberg writes with EUR/GBP pushing to weekly low with focus on hawkish commentary from BOE’s McCafferty, EUR/USD hits session lows in tandem at 1.14. AUD outperforms with most citing overnight USD weakness as main driver, AUD/USD within range of YTD high. Gilts initially open lower in response to McCafferty before quickly reversing, led by the long end as the market impact of index extensions from coupon-paying gilts going ex-dividend provides support; bunds also lifted by old 10Y benchmark yield moving back below 50bps. Equity markets rally from the open led by miners; ArcelorMittal (+2.7%) after upgrade from Deutsche Bank, mining index above 50 and 200 DMAs. Crude futures edge lower after supply warning from IEA. Asia's gains also lifted Indian stocks to an all-time high. South Korea and Australia's main indexes both climbed 1.1 percent too, the former helped as its central bank kept interest rates at a record low. Japan's Nikkei was restrained by a firmer yen and ended flat.

    Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also signaled further gains. S&P 500 Sept contracts rose 0.2% at 6:15 a.m. in New York as the benchmark on Wednesday advanced to within 0.5% of its record close reached in June. Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.4% after the benchmark climbed for a fourth day yesterday.

    There was less euphoria in commodities, where oil prices flatlined as producer club OPEC said it expected demand to decline next year as rivals pump more, though the Chinese trade data showed it remained a heavy buyer. Brent crude futures were off 4 cents at $47.70 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 5 cents to $45.44. Spring wheat for September delivery fell as much as 1.6 percent to $7.8175 a bushel, down a third day. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said domestic production will be greater than analysts expected. Gold added 0.2 percent to $1,222.42 an ounce, a fourth day of gains on expectations rates will stay low.

    Market Snapshot
    • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,444.25
    • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 386.97
    • US 10Y yield down 1bps to 0.31%
    • German 10Y yield down 3bps to 0.55%
    • Euro down 0.03% to 1.1409 per US$
    • Italian 10Y yield down 3bps to 2.23%
    • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4 bps to 1.60%
    • MXAP up 0.7% to 156.42
    • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 515.21
    • Nikkei up 0.01% to 20,099.81
    • Topix little changed at 1,619.11
    • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 26,346.17
    • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,218.16
    • Sensex up 0.8% to 32,046.55
    • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 5,736.77
    • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,409.49
    • Brent futures down 0.7% to $47.41/bbl
    • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,222.12
    • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.78
    Top Overnight News from BBG
    • Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate hearing Thursday moved to 9:30 am ET
    • Fed’s George supports balance sheet reduction in ’near future’, says U.S. economic fundamentals look positive
    • China June trade surplus 294.3b yuan vs 275.1b est; exports 17.3% vs 14.6% est; imports 17.2% vs 14.5% est
    • PBOC offers 360b yuan liquidity via MLF operations
    • Bank of Japan to raise growth outlook for FY2017/2018 by 0.1%-0.2%; mulls downgrading CPI forecasts: Nikkei
    • Bank of Korea holds rate steady; raises 2017 GDP forecast
    • House Republicans are throwing up new roadblocks to a Russia and Iran sanctions bill
    • OPEC wants "orderly recovery” in oil production from Libya, Nigeria and Iran, can accommodate more crude from the three member nations
    • GLP Is Said to Choose Chinese Bidder for $10 Billion Buyout
    • Yanlord Group Is Said to Near $1.2 Billion United Engineers Bid
    • Daimler Drops After Report Probe May Involve 1 Million Vehicles
    • Astra Drops on Report Soriot Will Quit to Become Teva’s Chief
    • Soriot at Teva May Signal Shift From Generics: Credit Suisse
    • Roche Says It’s Focusing on New Drugs as U.S. Biosimilars Loom
    • Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent
    • Oil Bosses See More Pain as Price Recovery Slips Back to 2020
    • Clariant’s Anglo-Saxon Investors Oppose Huntsman Deal: HZ
    • Qatar Airways Still Plans American Airlines Share Purchase: CEO
    • Trump Administration Approves Eni’s Arctic Drilling Plan
    • Eisendrath-Led Group Set to Buy Chicago Sun-Times: Sun-Times
    Asia stocks were higher across the board as the region maintained the momentum from its global counterparts, in which the DJIA posted record highs after a dovish testimony from Fed Chair Yellen, while participants also mulled over key Chinese data. ASX 200 (+1.1 %) and Nikkei 225 (unch) were lifted from the open, although gains in the latter were pared as JPY firmed. China conformed to the upbeat tone with the Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) traded in the green after better than expected Aggregate Financing, New Yuan Loans and Trade data. 10yr JGBs track upside seen in T-notes as Yellen's comments eased yields, while outperformance was seen in 20yr JGBs despite mixed 20yr auction results. PBoC adviser states that China should consider a government backed fund to deal with employment-related issues arising from clean-up of zombie firms

    Top Asian News
    • Cheap Currency Spurs Malaysia Exports as Central Bank Stays Put
    • China June Trade Data Buoyed by Robust Demand at Home and Abroad
    • Citigroup Names Dhawan as Asia Commercial Bank SME Business Head
    • Japan Stocks to Watch: Fast Retailing, Fujitsu General, Totenko
    • MSCI Move Sees Pakistan Go From Best to Worst as Flows Ease
    • China Plans Targeting Pipeline Expansion Boosts Energy Stocks
    • Asia’s Central Banks Steer Clear of Hawkish Peers, For Now
    • Taiwan Chip Giant Creates New Billionaire on iPhone Outlook
    • One Billion Tons of Iron Ore Are Headed to China’s Mills in 2017
    EU Equity markets trade mixed on the day, as futures were bullish following Yellen's dovish tone yesterday, with markets seemingly taking a breather from a busy day's trade yesterday. Sector specific is also mixed, as oil lags the energy sector. Materials are the noticeable out performer, as metal markets trade the vast majority in the green amid the risk tone and dampening dollar sentiment. Fixed Income markets benefited from Yellen's pre-release yesterday, with bids clear across the major bonds, however, the German Bund continues to trade above the 0.50% yield level. OATs have followed the trend this morning, as they begin to tighten their lOy bund spread, now at 1bps.

    Top European News
    • May Faces Battle Over Brexit Laws as Clock Ticks on EU Talks
    • U.K. Housing Cools as Political Uncertainty Undercuts Demand
    • Spain’s Liberbank Short-Sale Ban Extended for Two Months
    • Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct Buys 26% Stake in Game Digital
    • Altice Is Said to Plan Creation of Banking Unit: Parisien
    • Stops Run in Bund Futures as Old Benchmark Falls Below 0.50%
    • Commerzbank Closes Bund Shorts After Dovish Yellen Comments
    • Ofcom to Release BT From Undertakings After Pension Changes
    In currencies, the BoC made more waves after its head Poloz sees modest overshoot in inflation in 2019; says policy not on a predetermined path, further stating, Central bank must target future inflation. FX markets have taken a back-foot this morning, as many slow down following the volatility seen in the majors yesterday. GBP has been the most interesting mover on the day, following an overnight article from BoE's McCafferty, cementing his hawkish tone, and his vote for a hike in August. USD/JPY continued its bearish pressure into Asian trade; not looking back since rejecting 114.50, taking another spike below 113.00 in Asian trade, the pair has consolidated around this level throughout European trade, with any clear break possibly set to result in a test of the 109.50 range.

    In commodities, OPEC crude output rose by 340 kb/d in June to 32.6 mb/d after Saudi flows increased and Libya and Nigeria, spared from cuts, pumped at stronger rates, according to the !EA report Global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d in June to 97.46 mb/d as producers opened the taps. For global demand, after lacklustre 1.0 mb/d growth in 1Q17, there was a dramatic acceleration in 2Q17 to 1.5 mb/d. The key oil risk event today came from the !EA monthly oil report, where the global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d in June to 97.46m1n BPD as producers opened the taps, however, this did coincide with an increase in demand. For global demand, after lacklustre 1.0mln BPD growth in 1Q17, there was a dramatic acceleration in 2Q17 to 1.5mln BPD, expecting 2017 global demand to grow 1.5% to 98m1n BPD. OPEC crude output rose by 340 kb/d in June to 32.6 mb/d after Saudi flows increased and Libya and Nigeria, spared from cuts, pumped at stronger rates. As this news was digested, oil saw selling pressure, with WTI trading through USD 45.00. Precious metals benefitted from Yellen's tone yesterday, as Gold rose for the fourth successive day. Asian trade was slow, with the other metals gaining amid the dovish tone; Silver +0.2%, Platinum +0.2% and Palladium +0.1%. However, as Europe came to market, Silver and Palladium began to lag, not able to keep up with the yellow gold.

    Looking at the day ahead, the June PPI report should be the main release of note while the other data includes initial jobless claims and the monthly budget statement for June. Away from the data, Yellen will again deliver her testimony, this time in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed’s Brainard is also due to speak again, at 1pm. The other potentially interesting event today is the CBO’s analysis of President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget.

    US Event Calendar
    • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 248,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.95m, prior 1.96m
    • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
      • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
      • PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.4%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 2.1%
    • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 48.5
    • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $38.0b deficit
    DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

    Mrs Yellen failed to send an Iceberg on a collision course with investors yesterday as her speech was interpreted as fairly dovish. So much for the globally coordinated Sintra pact. Indeed a look at the intra-day charts show that risk assets climbed and yields fell the moment the statement was pre-released at 8.30am local time (1.30pm BST). The S&P 500 eventually finished up +0.73% with all sectors ending higher and the index now back to within just half a percent of its all-time record high. Europe had already been trading a little firmer but the comments also helped European indices rally into the close. The Stoxx 600 ended +1.52%. In rates 10y Treasuries finished 4.3bps lower in yield at 2.319% which was the strongest day in a month. 2y yields were 3.2bps lower and 30y yields were 4.0bps lower. Bunds (-4.7bps), OATs (-5.6bps) and BTPs (-6.8bps) also rallied in tune. Gold (+0.23%) nudged higher for the third session in a row while the US Dollar bucked the rest of the market a little by ending the day unchanged.

    In terms of Yellen’s comments, the dovish interpretation appeared to be twofold in nature. The first was Yellen’s rubber stamping of Brainard’s comment from the day prior in which the Fed Chair said that “because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get a neutral policy stance”. The second concerned inflation with Yellen’s broad narrative around the topic a little bit more dovish relative to recent communications. The Fed Chair said that “I do believe part of the weakness in inflation reflects transitory factors, but well recognise that inflation has been running under our 2% objective, that there could be more going on there”. She also said that there is “uncertainty about when – and how much – inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization” and that this will remain a key focus for the Fed in the near term. On the balance sheet Yellen indicated that she expects the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet “this year” without any further guidance as to when exactly that might be. Our US economists are sticking to their call for a pause in the rate hiking cycle in September to announce the beginning of its balance sheet normalization program, and then resume increasing the fed funds rate at the December meeting.

    So with much of the debate in the market surrounding Yellen’s comments around inflation, its timely that today we’ll get the June PPI report followed then by the June CPI report tomorrow. With regards to the former, the market consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline reading and a +0.2% mom increase in the core reading. What will be worth keeping an eye on is the health care services component of the PPI which, as our economists note, will provide clues on the near-term direction of the core PCE deflator which as we know is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. So all that to look forward to.

    This morning in Asia the positive sentiment has continued for the most part. The Hang Seng (+1.01%), Shanghai Comp (+0.44%), Kospi (+1.22%) and ASX (+1.09%) have all firmed, while sovereign bond markets are also stronger and following the lead from Treasuries yesterday. The Nikkei (-0.11%) is underperforming slightly on the back of a slightly stronger session for the Yen. Meanwhile trade data in China released this morning revealed that exports – in USD terms - rose to +11.3% yoy in June (vs. +8.9% expected) from +8.7% in May. That is the fastest pace of growth since March. Import growth also edged higher but China’s trade surplus still widened last month.

    Moving on. The other notable story from yesterday concerned another central bank – namely the Bank of Canada - following a largely expected 25bp rate hike in the benchmark rate to 0.75%. That is the first rate hike for the BoC since 2010 and it also means that the BoC becomes the first G7 central bank to join the Fed in raising rates in the current cycle. The overall message was fairly hawkish too. Inflation was downplayed as being temporary while the BoC highlighted that the “output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report”. Guidance for future policy tightening appears to be firmly data dependent which was something also noted by Governor Poloz in his press conference. In an otherwise strong day for sovereign bonds, Canadian govies were the notable underperformer yesterday with 10y yields edging up 1.9bps to 1.873% and closing the gap a bit on Treasuries. The Canadian Dollar also rallied 1.27% and the most since March.

    Closer to home, it was a much more mixed picture in the UK with early dovish comments from the BoE’s Broadbent later countered by an overall decent set of UK employment figures. Starting with the former, Broadbent spoke shortly after we went to print yesterday and notably said that the bank is “not yet ready to support a rate hike”. Remember that Broadbent’s exact position on the BoE was a bit on an unknown with the suggestion now that he is sitting slightly towards the dovish side of centre. Later in the morning we then got the latest employment figures where it was revealed that the ILO unemployment rate dropped to a 42-year low of 4.5% (from 4.6%) after employment rose 175k in the three months to May. On the wages front, while average earnings including bonuses rose just +1.8% yoy (down from +2.1% in April), ex-bonus earnings did nudge up twotenths and a bit more than expected to +2.0% yoy. Sterling finished up +0.29% yesterday and just shy of $1.290 after touching as low as $1.281 shortly after Broadbent’s comments.

    Away from central banks, it was a fairly volatile session for Oil yesterday with WTI trading in a 3% range around $46/bbl. The latest EIA data revealed that US crude stockpiles dropped by over 7.5m barrels last week which was the sharpest decline since the week ending September 2nd. A rally was also temporarily aided by headlines concerning an extraordinary OPEC meeting scheduled for July 17th however this was later downplayed in terms of its significance.

    Before we wrap up, it’s been a busy last 24 hours over in Brazil too with the news that former President Lula was convicted of graft and money laundering following his role in the corruption scandal which swept through the country. The helped Brazil’s Ibovespa to rally +1.57% yesterday while the Brazilian Real (+1.42%) also had its strongest day in two months.

    Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we are due to receive the final revisions to the June CPI prints in both Germany and France. The consensus is no for no change to the initial flash estimates of +0.2% mom and 0.0% mom respectively. The other release to note this morning is the BoE’s credit conditions and bank liabilities survey. Over in the US this afternoon, the aforementioned June PPI report should be the main release of note while the other data includes initial jobless claims and the monthly budget statement for June. Away from the data, Yellen will again deliver her testimony, this time in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed’s Brainard is also due to speak again, at 6pm BST. The other potentially interesting event today is the CBO’s analysis of President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/
     
  39. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Frontrunning: July 13

    [​IMG]
    by Tyler Durden
    Jul 13, 2017 8:09 AM


    • Feuding U.S. Senate Republicans to get revised healthcare bill (Reuters)
    • Draghi May Address Future of ECB Stimulus at Jackson Hole (WSJ)
    • BOJ seeks to tamp down speculation on tapering (Nikkei)
    • Iran’s Stature Grows as Rivals Quarrel (WSJ)
    • China June Trade Data Buoyed by Robust Demand at Home and Abroad (BBG)
    • Germany summons Daimler to address diesel allegations (Reuters)
    • French Court Tosses Google’s $1.3 Billion Tax Bill (WSJ)
    • First tech, now financing: U.S. shale firms get creative to pump more oil (Reuters)
    • Latest Wave of 401(k) Suits Yields Big Wins, and Big Losses, for Plaintiffs (WSJ)
    • EU gives Hungary a month to revise education law or face court (Reuters)
    • China’s Booming Housing Market Proves Impossible to Tame (WSJ)
    • Off the Map: The Rough Road Ahead for Self-Driving Cars in China (WSJ)
    • Behind China's Boldest Dealmaker, Billions in Pledged Shares (BBG)
    • Despite U.S. Ban, Kalashnikov Finds Markets in Asia, Africa (WSJ)
    • Trump's FBI pick vows independence, says Russia probe no 'witch hunt' (Reuters)
    • Why You Should Look to China for the Future of Retail (WSJ)
    • Goldman Sachs relaxes dress code for techs in fight for talent (Reuters)
    • Bonfire of the Retail Stocks Brings Traders Running (BBG)
    • House Conservatives Hold Budget Hostage Over Tax Plan Details (BBG)

    Overnight Media Digest

    WSJ

    - Christopher Wray, President Trump's nominee to lead the FBI, pledged to be an independent leader who wouldn't let politics interfere with the bureau's investigations. on.wsj.com/2tODkXV

    - U.S. President Trump sought to refute allegations that the Russian government tried to help his presidential campaign and damage that of Hillary Clinton, arguing his policies run counter to the Kremlin's interests. on.wsj.com/2tP6UfS

    - U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen told a House panel she expects forces holding down prices to fade in coming months, allowing the Fed to stick to plans for gradual rate increases. on.wsj.com/2tOSL2k

    - Berkshire Hathaway Energy is racing to get Texas regulators to sign off on its takeover of Oncor in an effort to outpace hedge fund Elliott Management. on.wsj.com/2tOIeo7

    - Alphabet's Google won a reprieve from one of its biggest legal battles in Europe when a Paris court threw out a $1.27 billion bill that France's tax authority has sought from the search giant. on.wsj.com/2tOB6YI

    - The German government called on Siemens to explain how gas turbines it had sold for use at a Russian power plant got diverted to Crimea, possibly violating EU sanctions in the wake of Moscow's annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula. on.wsj.com/2tOtky6

    - Apple will begin storing all cloud data for its customers in China with a government-owned company, a move that means relinquishing some control over its data. on.wsj.com/2tP77ja


    FT

    * Google won a rare legal victory in Europe after Paris judge said that the company did not dodge French tax laws and would not have to pay 1.12 billion euros ($1.28 billion) in back taxes.

    * Pimco has sued Wells Fargo & Co for allegedly withholding money owed to bond investors, in a dispute that could have implications for billions of dollars still locked up in U.S. mortgage securities created before the financial crisis.

    * Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has struck a 4.2 billion pound ($5.42 billion) settlement deal with a U.S. authority to resolve the U.S. mortgage probe over mis-selling toxic mortgage-backed securities.

    * Apple Inc opens its first iCloud data centre in China, allowing users to store private messages, photos and device backups from iPhones and iPads locally in the mainland for the first time. The centre is part of a $1 billion investment in Guizhou province.

    NYT

    - Uber drivers have won a tentative victory in their legal battle to be classified as employees rather than independent contractors. nyti.ms/2tOWwVE

    - Google won its latest legal battle in Europe, after a French court said the company did not have to pay $1.3 billion in back taxes. nyti.ms/2t5qZll

    - Apple Inc said that it would open its first data center in China, in response to a strict new law in China that requires companies to store users' data in the country. nyti.ms/2uTeWEN

    - A Food and Drug Administration panel unanimously recommended that the Food and Drug Administration approve the first-ever treatment that genetically alters a patient's own cells to fight cancer. nyti.ms/2sS5tfK

    - Representative Steve Scalise, who was critically injured during a mass shooting that took place at a congressional baseball practice, was moved from the intensive care unit of a Washington hospital. nyti.ms/2tgtyw3


    Canada

    The Globe and Mail

    ** Canada's Big Six banks raised their prime lending rates to 2.95 percent from 2.7 percent, after the Bank of Canada raised its key overnight lending rate by 25 basis points. (tgam.ca/2ugedzH)

    ** Executives of insolvent Sears Canada Inc plan to make a bid for some or all of the troubled retailer, according to court documents. (tgam.ca/2t6J4PO)

    ** Rogers Communications Inc recently tweaked some of its high-end wireless plans, a move that could herald a shift toward more U.S.-style pricing that separates the cost of customers' smartphones from their monthly service charges. (tgam.ca/2vfFkIc)
    National Post

    ** The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in seven years on Wednesday, and it did so with such an upbeat description of the economy that private sector analysts expect the bank to raise rates yet again later this year. (bit.ly/2ulydBH)

    ** The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board will buy Royal Dutch Shell Plc's interest in a natural gas project in Ireland in the pension fund’s latest deal for oil and gas assets. (bit.ly/2um4rNq)

    ** Home Capital Group Inc has chosen a mortgage industry veteran with a technology background as its new full-time president and chief executive, tasking Yousry Bissada with getting the beleaguered Toronto-based company "running on all cylinders" again. (bit.ly/2tLSIGm)


    Britain

    The Times

    ** Premier Oil Plc and its partners have announced a "world class" discovery of up to two billion barrels of oil off the coast of Mexico. (bit.ly/2tfG9j6)

    ** Burberry Group Plc said that its comparable sales were up 4 percent in the three months to June 30 after sales in mainland China and across the Asia Pacific improved. (bit.ly/2sRqlnn)

    The Guardian

    ** The Bank of England should resist increasing interest rates while the direction of the economy remains unclear, according to one of the central bank's senior policymakers, an announcement that reduces the chances of a rate hike this year. (bit.ly/2uSSnjG)

    ** Irish business leaders have called for a 1 billion euro ($1.14 billion) state aid programme to guard against Brexit disruption, in the event that the UK quits the customs union. (bit.ly/2t5ccXu)

    The Telegraph

    ** Oil and gas explorer Ophir Energy Plc will slash 15 percent of its global workforce to cut costs in the face of tough trading conditions for the oil sector. (bit.ly/2u8yjMM)

    ** The UK's competition watchdog has warned that Tesco Plc's 3.7 billion pound ($4.77 billion) takeover of cash and carry group Booker Group Plc could damage competition in 350 neighbourhoods, prompting a full-scale investigation into the deal. (bit.ly/2ufA2iG)

    Sky News

    ** The billionaire tycoon Mike Ashley has added a 25 percent stake in the video games retailer Game Digital Plc to a high street shopping list that also includes Debenhams Plc and French Connection Group Plc. (bit.ly/2sREwZh)

    ** Ofgem is planning tougher price controls for gas and electricity distribution companies amid claims they have been making billions in excess profits - paid for by consumers. (bit.ly/2tggzKy)

    The Independent

    ** Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has agreed to pay a $5.5 billion fine to U.S. authorities over its sales of sub-prime mortgage bonds in the lead-up to the financial crisis. (ind.pn/2vc8hoC)

    ** Wage growth disappointed again in May, according to the latest official data, spelling another fall in real-terms pay for British workers ahead of Brexit. According to the Office for National Statistics, average nominal pay was up just 1.8 percent year-on-year in the month. (ind.pn/2tdjqUG)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/frontrunning-july-13
     
  40. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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