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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. JayDubya

    JayDubya Platinum Bling Platinum Bling

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    Any idea what the name of the company is? I might be interested and want to do some research
     
  2. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yep, but all those arguments haven't worked to date,

    nor will they as they march towards bankruptcy by playing the 'my balls are bigger than yours' game.

    stupid #@$'s anyway
     
  3. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Oil leaps 8% as OPEC reportedly agrees to cut output: Live blog
    November 30, 2016, 2:56 AM ET
    [​IMG]
    AFP/Getty Images
    After months of wrangling, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday decided to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day, according to media reports. Expectations for a deal were low ahead of the closely watched meeting in Vienna and news of the agreement sent oil futures rallying as much as 8%.

    And in non-OPEC related oil news today, the latest U.S. inventory figures are in.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic crude supplies in the week ended Nov. 25 fell by 900,000 barrels. That was a bigger fall than the drop of 250,000 barrels expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.

    Oil prices held to gains after the data, with crude up 7.1% to $48.45 a barrel. Such a gain would be the biggest for a front-runner contract since February.

    • As we wait for the list of country quotas and final details of the OPEC output deal to emerge, analysts have started to question how bullish this agreement really is for the oil market.

      James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, points out that if the reported 1.2 million-barrel reduction per day includes the exclusion of Indonesia, then the cut is really only about 500,000 barrels a day.

      “The loss of Indonesia in and of itself is a non event. If they are counting its exit as part of the 1.2 million cut, then the agreement is not very bullish,” he said.

      Tyler Richey, co-editor of the 7:00’s Report, also pointed out that Indonesia’s output won’t just disappear.

      “But rather it will be added to the ‘non-OPEC’ production figures, which will balance out in the broad global oil supply and demand equation,” he said.

      Oil prices have come off their intraday highs ahead of the news conference, but are still showing solid gains. WTI crude oil is up 7.3% at $48.54 a barrel, while Brent is 7.7% higher at $49.93.
    • One of the big surprises from today’s OPEC meeting was that Indonesia was booted from the cartel.

      The country’s output quota is said to have been redistributed to some of the remaining OPEC members.

      “Indonesia is irrelevant to OPEC and really should not have been admitted back in. It used to be a net exporter of crude oil and while it produces 722,000 barrels per day of oil and does export some, it is a net importer of petroleum. It consumes twice as much as it produces,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics.

      “Until about 2003 it produced more than it consumed. Since it is a net importer, it really wants lower not higher oil prices and just does not belong in OPEC.”
      • 8:56 am
      • [​IMG]
      • Waiting for press conference
      • by Sara Sjolin
      • Add a Comment
      The closely watched OPEC meeting in Vienna has now concluded for the delegates to have lunch and a statement is expected later this afternoon.

      A press conference is scheduled for 4 p.m. local time (10 a.m. Eastern/3 p.m. London) and can be watched live here.

      The group has reportedly agreed to cut daily production to 32.5 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia taking a “big hit” and Iran allowed to ramp up production to presanction levels.
    • Reuters is now also reporting that OPEC has agreed to cut output, but gives no details on the actual amount.

      The deal was sealed as Saudi Arabia said it was prepared to take “a big hit” on its production and agree to let rival Iran increase production to presanction levels, according to the newswire.

      In other headlines out of Vienna just now, according to reports:

      - Saudi Arabia will cut output to 10.06 million barrels a day. The nation produced 10.55 million barrels a day in November, according to Vienna-based JBC Energy

      - Iranian output will be capped at 3.797 million barrels a day, enough to allow the country to return to presanction levels

      - The output deal will be effective in January and will last for six months, but can be extended

      - Indonesia is said to have been suspended from OPEC, with some of the remaining member states snapping up the country’s quota

      • 7:55 am
      • [​IMG]
      • Don't expect oil to top $55 even with OPEC deal
      • by William Watts
      • Add a Comment
      Even if OPEC does finalize a deal today, the oil market is still likely to see a “sizeable oversupply” in 2017, write analysts at Vienna-based JBC Energy.

      That’s because non-OPEC producers, particularly U.S. shale players, are “ready to step in and compensate for any significant cut that temporarily spurs prices,” they said.

      That means it’s unlikely OPEC will offer a plan “decisive enough to target a longer term upside to prices and consequently do not expect to see prices move sustainably above $55 per barrel next year.”

      The analysts offer OPEC some advice, however, saying the cartel would be more likley to succeed if it aimed to defend the downside to prices at, for example, an OPEC basket price of $40 a barrel.

      “To do this some sort of conditional cut mechanism could be created that would be triggered if the price undershoots the floor level for longer than a predefined period,” they wrote. “Ultimately, however, such a mechanism would be prone to the same difficult questions, i.e. who cuts; by how much; and according to which statistics.”
      • 7:49 am
      • [​IMG]
      • OPEC agrees to cut output, Bloomberg says
      • by Sara Sjolin
      • Add a Comment
      The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has agreed to cut oil production for the first time in eight years.

      The cartel will reduce its total supply by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg, citing a delegate to the group.

      That’s slightly lower than rumors earlier in the day that said OPEC was ready to cut production by 1.4 million barrels a day.

      Oil prices held on to their sharp gains, with WTI crude up 7.5% at $48.69 a barrel and Brent oil 8.1% higher at $50.13.

      “This is certainly the best present traders could have for Christmas – a supply cut from OPEC. The cartel has shown united front and this is what matters the most. There have been so many doubts over the year if they have the ability to deliver anything and today they have,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, in a note.
     
  4. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    let me repeat that as zerohedge is out with their 1/2 truths and bs

    “Indonesia is irrelevant to OPEC and really should not have been admitted back in. It used to be a net exporter of crude oil and while it produces 722,000 barrels per day of oil and does export some, it is a net importer of petroleum. It consumes twice as much as it produces,”
     
  5. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    current prints

    note the gold price sinking back to that point where I declared foul associated with the black friday events


    Gold 1,174.45 -16.35 -1.37%

    Silver 16.562 -0.178 -1.06%

    Copper 2.639 +0.029 +1.11%

    Crude Oil 48.93 +3.70 +8.18%

    Brent Oil 51.38 +4.06 +8.58%

    Natural Gas 3.355 +0.040 +1.21%
     
  6. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    OPEC announces 1.2M barrel per day cut,

    Russia has joined the party to the tune of 300K barrels per day

    that is the scuttlebutt anyway,
     
  7. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Sounds to me like all they are doing is willingly giving up a portion of their current market share.

    If it were me, I'd open the taps wide and truly flood the market long enough to shut down and bury my competition.
     
  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    they can't, they have too many obligations to their peasants

    they are trying to protect themselves from a internal revolt if the slaves actually had to work for a living rather than living off oil revenues or .gov vig.
     
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  9. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I understand that part, but if their reduction is just going to be made up for by other non OPEC producers they'll end up making even less profit on a lower market share.
    ...but yea, they would probably have a hard time doing that now. The time to have done it was back when all the shale oil was first coming on-line. Hit 'em hard right at the moment they most need their capital investments to start paying off, in order to kill them off.


    IMHO, if the oil producers (OPEC & nonOPEC) really want higher oil prices, all they need to do is stop producing for one or two weeks and it would take care of the excess that's been produced recently, allowing prices to "recover" to a higher level.
    I know, much easier said than done. lol
     
  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    OPEC reaches deal to cut oil production

    By Benoit Faucon and Georgi Kantchev
    Published: Nov 30, 2016 1:00 p.m. ET



    Cartel members will cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day


    AFP/Getty Images
    VIENNA—OPEC representatives reached a deal to cut oil production after months of wrangling Wednesday, in an effort to lift sagging prices and reassert the cartel’s influence over a market increasingly dominated by the U.S., Russia and others.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day from the current 33.6 million barrels, representing about 1% of global production. Other oil producers from outside the cartel are expected to cut an additional 600,000 barrels a day, OPEC said.

    Oil prices LCOF7, +8.37% surged more than 8% Wednesday afternoon in London, hitting a high of $51.84 a barrel. In New York, WTI futures CLF7, +9.24% jumped 8.6% to $49.13 a barrel. OPEC members have said they are targeting prices as high as $55 to $60 a barrel, a level that would boost petroleum-dependent economies that have been badly damaged by two years of prices that were often below $50 a barrel.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-reaches-deal-to-cut-oil-production-2016-11-30-101035559
     
  11. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    after todays reports, bonds getting the snot knocked out of them......

    T-Bond

    Dec 16 154-06 154-11 151-16 152-13 -1-23
     
  12. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Earlier they were down almost 3 pts.
     
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  13. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Whoopsie - S&P 500 now red.
     
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  14. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Down 3???

    Wow, so they have recovered to only be down 1-23..........
     
  15. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Yes.

    Look at TLT. Low for the day 119.49, now 120.63.

    Low in Tbonds may be in for awhile.







    or maybe not. :green tea:
     
  16. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Reversal of the S&P off a new high is technically significant. If we close red should see more downside and it could come fast.





    or maybe not. :winks2:
     
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  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    naww, I am with you

    there has been a massive change across many markets with that dollar action,

    the dollar couldn't even roll under 101 without popping back up big to new highs for the move

    unless metals disconnect from this, they are in for some pain. They have to get away from that dollar denominated nonsense and start previewing what the other markets are seeing IMO.
     
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  18. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    well that was an ugly close...
     
  19. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  20. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    post 5516, stated that the turnaround in metals was bogus to cover the black friday stuff,

    had a low print in gold of around 1170.

    Knew then we would see that number again, and to wait on any buying of physical. Figured if you buy gold at spot, and it declines $30 bucks, did you really get it at spot?

    With that dollar action, adding physical right now you have to be careful or be willing to weather a storm.
     
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  21. Uncle

    Uncle Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    What is driving the dollar strength. I can, for the life of me, not understand this?

    Do you need dollars to sell bonds? Why?

    Golden Regards
    Uncle
     
  22. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    No as they are already denominated in $.

    Dollar strength is related to the others being so bad,
    The best looking hobo of the bunch is all it is at this point,

    When much of zero land is still at or near negative, US economy is reported to be ok, and rates are supposed to be rising here, the spread against others is getting larger daily
     
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  24. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Reference the Saudi cut or no cut,

    They had tried, at great loss to themselves, to dominate market sentiment and flood the markets with oil. Trying to clear the field as it were. Failed miserably. They burned reserves like there was no tomorrow, and now were floating a huge bond issue to cover their stupidity.

    Some simple calcs reveal this:

    Saudis were producting 10.64 M barrels per day. If they didn't cut and prices would immediately have dropped to 40 or lower, the revenue would have been $425,600,000 per day at $40.

    Yet, if they did cut, and the markets took it favorably, their production would decline to 10,184,000 as they did agree to 456,000 barrels/da less. The calcs at $50 equate to $509,200,000 per day of revenue.

    Note the huge difference in revenue just by cutting the measily amount they did. This thing is all about sentiment, and if they did not cut, the market was cleared to punish OPEC big.

    Not to mention, this is going to make their bondholders happy, and I wonder if they had any say in this? Told him, no we are not playing the my balls are bigger than your balls game any longer. You are going to do what makes sense.????

    OPEC has to realize that at the current time, their dominance is over.
     
  25. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    TBonds hammered again despite ugly jobless claims number.

    I guess nobody wants to hold them going into Payroll number tomorrow.
     
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  26. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    What was it in this greatest economy ever according to the kenyan

    121,000 INCREASE in jobless claims?

    During peak retail sales season?
     
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  27. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    The Nasdaq and S&P500 seemed to have put in a significant top. The Dow however is not going down without a fight.
     
  28. Uglytruth

    Uglytruth Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I can't wait to see the seasonal adjustments they will make.
     
  29. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    ...or the seasonal adjustment to the seasonal adjustments.

    No doubt we'll have an accurate picture of just where their fairy tale numbers are for this holiday season sometime the middle of next year.
     
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  30. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Thought this to be of some interest. Peabody is projected to come out of BK in April. Arch looks fairly strong after their recent exit. Just food for thought, too rich for my blood.


    (Wyoming) According toMining.com, private capital raised in North America accounts for over half the world's investment in the energy industry. But almost all of the billions raised are being invested in either oil or natural gas, with around 20% going towards renewable energy like wind and solar.

    There are over 50 energy-focused funds in the U.S. looking to invest, and it appears most of them are shunning coal. Only 2% of capital raised in the last ten years has been in coal, according to numbers released byMining.comfrom Preqin Natural Resources.

    "Among the institutions in North America committing money to invest in energy, none have plans to direct funds to coal within the next 12 months, even though 9% have a general preference for coal (versus 50% for renewables)."

    You can read the full article here.

    https://pitchengine.com/county17/20...rivate-investors-intere/002519216818713279123
     
  31. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    looks like oil wants to take a break this am, down some and hodling above that 50 handle

    Gold is positive to start with Silver down again. USD not doing much at this point other than hanging out just above 101
     
  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Jobs Number Friday

    So after that there should be movement across all areas.

    Not sure that it will make that much difference though as all markets have been on the move one way or another and are ready for a break.

    We'll see.
     
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  33. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  34. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    4.6% unemployment rate

    labor participation rate drops to 62.7

    +178K jobs
     
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  35. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Making shit shine. Like not counting those in the breadline during the Depression.
     
  36. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    That is for damn sho'

    Not neglecting the fact that they got a print of 3.2% GDP just recent. Now this pres had never had a +3% GDP in 8 years, and now on his final print, he gets a 3.2% in order to NOT go down as the only president in history who had never achieved such a miniscue level of growth.

    While we also look back over the past year and the yammerin on from 'ole yeller that 'we would have instant wet spots' if we could just achieve 2% GDP growth and with that we will be happy to raise rates..........

    So the kenyan gets his print, and doesn't get a asterisk in the history books.

    good grief
     
  37. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Are ya really surprised??? Didnt think so!!!
     
  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Good monday morning.

    Metals getting the hammer while the dollar crawls back above 101.
    Odd to me that the 101 is acting like a magnet right now.
     
  39. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  40. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Frackers go positive in WY at $55, so I've heard.
     
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