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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    they had some guy on flapping his gums,

    stating that the .fed raises 4x in '17, and the dollar will go down accordingly in inflation expectations

    What?????

    pull your head out of a book and look at reality. Raising rates here is going to draw capital towards the dollar IMO.
     
  2. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    On the other side of the equation, if the Fed raises wont that force the basket currencies to inflate? We must also consider the effect that raising will have not only on the $ but also on the global credit collateral machine.

    LIBOR market rates are suggesting that available offshore $ liquidity is tightening.... which should FORCE the Fed to raise regardless of the consequences. I think this goes back to our conversations concerning that a hidden black hole has been sucking up liquidity. A hole that is now preying on the UST & corporate bond complex.

    Screen-Shot-2016-11-25-at-11.03.52-PM.png

    https://capitalistexploits.at/2016/12/eurodollar-market-it-all-starts-here/#
     
  3. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Another consideration is that the GOV has been reporting magically low inflation rates for the last 8 years. When Trump is crowned, I hope there will be an effort to report better quality data. Then 4 interest rate rises at 1/4 each would pale in comparison to a correctly reported inflation rate that could easily exceed 5%, even before Trump's spending plans that will push inflation higher still. When inflation rises faster than the interest rates, the US$ becomes much less attractive.
     
  4. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    I hope he goes one further and demands the stats for the last seventeen years be recalculated and expose the lying bastards.
     
  5. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    As a fyi, the USD ran into a wall of selling today and finished down hard on the day, just above the 100 level.

    We saw some evidence of this in the metal stocks, but not necessarily with the metals. The metals were off their earlier lows though.

    Crude topped out in the 52 area for now, and rolled off from there. Now we see if there is a decent correction there as it takes a break from going up every day.
     
  6. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I dont think the Fed raising this month is a foregone conclusion....

    [​IMG]
     
  7. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Spent the last few days buying up some GDX, a handful of gold & silver stocks and TLT.
     
  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Too funny,

    Tramp tweets out, Boeing too expensive, cancel the order

    newsboyz run off to get a comment from Boeing,
    shock and they state 'will get back to you'

    they get back to the reporter ..........'no comment'

    in other words, they were totally blindsided and now trying to figure out how to protect their gravy train and auto approved change orders
     
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  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Quiet Trade Ahead Of Tomorrow’s ECB Meeting
    Wednesday December 07, 2016 08:17
    (Kitco News) - Gold remains range-bound ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Although it is expected that the ECB will extend its quantitative-easing policy, traders will be watching for any change in the size of the monthly asset purchases. The dollar remains slightly weaker against the euro, which is taking some of the bite away from the bear camp. We expect volatility into tomorrow’s ECB announcement and next week’s Fed meeting. December will produce more volatility as tax-related trading will also enter the market closer to Christmas. In the short term, gold will continue to trade inversely to the dollar. Would suspect today’s range will be bound by $1,167 - $1,178.

    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-12-07/Quiet-Trade-Ahead-Of-Tomorrow-s-ECB-Meeting.html
     
  10. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Looks like Gold & Silver are starting to break out of the recent range ( to the good side ).
     
  11. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Slamdown in 3....2....1....
     
  12. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    After holding quite well over 100, the USD has now broken back under to 9984 this am.
     
  13. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    everybody still waiting on ecb interest rate decision,
     
  14. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    ecb leaves rates unchanged,

    will continue the stimulus program to Mar 17

    basically extend and pretend
     
  15. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    dollar jumps right back over 100 on the ecb news
     
  16. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I hate that headline. "Leave rates unchanged" Bloomberg was running it - isn't that redundant? How about "Leave rates at zero".

    Draghi also announced a reduction in bond purchases, which is what's got the markets in a tizzy.
     
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  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I hear tell he actually extended it,

    The same until Mar, then reduced purchases all the way to Dec

    effectively meaning he did not reduce anything, he actually added to the total
     
  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Thankfully though, gold and silver are down on the news,

    just in case someone is still missing from the train,
     
  19. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    aka - circle jerk. lol. They are creative with their methods. Have to give them that.
     
  20. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yep, and the propaganda headlines are pure poppycock
     
  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Draghi basically states he is in it to win it........

    States doesn't really see any growth until '19

    what a maroon!

    kinda like running your checkbook in the red with bank fees piling on, and declaring:

    WINNING!

    wtf,

    If anyone noticed, the economy here really didn't get a move on until the .fed QUIT the QE fantasy,

    and markets started to take rates up, etc.

    Maybe, just maybe, someone should send drag a note

    'When you find yourself in a hole, quit digging'
     
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  22. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    meanwhile the markets are stamping a 'Dumbass' across his forehead

    dollar is flying to the up on the news,

    U.S. Dollar Index

    Mar 17 100.130 101.050 99.250 101.040 +0.899 09:42
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2016
  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    they just had the steelworkers union pres on,

    his statement was that we should go back to laws of pre 1982 where stock buybacks are illegal!
    he states the money would then be used for plant upgrades and employees,

    talk about disconnected from reality

    which shows he has zero idea what a public company even is and how they came into being, and where those 'stocks' came from

    as stated prior, the whole idea of a ever expanding market, ie insatiable demand if the product is right are over.

    it is time for everyone to get their brains around that fact, including dimwits like that guy,

    the companies are not expanding because they are at capacity to offload their trinkets.

    their capacity utilization rates would plummet if they added more throughput or sq ft.
     
  24. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    join_in_the_internet_circle_jerk_print-ra11ce31c7e7d40d78d37d8a5a1e777f5_zod_400.jpg
     
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  25. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    images.png
     
  26. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
     
  27. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Ruts Cuts Gluts. The Energy Report 12/08/16
    Thursday, December 08, 2016

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group


    [​IMG]

    At the bottom of the energy cycle we know that low oil prices put companies in a rut, which lead to cuts in investment, which eventually reduced production, which then evaporated oil gluts. That process may accelerate with a little help from our friends in OPEC.

    Oil prices are bouncing back as progress seems to being made in getting non-OPEC nations to participate in OPEC production cuts. Both Russia and Oman have committed to their share of a cut and they are working with smaller producers to help them participate, if even a small way. Russia even has said that they would accept some natural decline rate from some participants as part of the cut and that should help make it easier for some countries to join a deal. It also puts pressure on other producers that don’t want to look like they were the country that killed the OPEC deal that has raised the hopes of energy producers across the globe.

    Prospects of a OPEC production cut is getting some oil companies and investors excited even as we know some oil companies are still in the Cap X reduction mode at a time when investors are starting to get bullish on energy. Conoco Phillips had again cut CapX on high cost projects in part to keep its dividend printing machine rolling. Yet that does not mean energy deals are not going to heat up. It is going to see some leaps and pull packs.

    Today’s Financial Times for example has a headline that says, “Bond investors hand Opec a vote of confidence as relief looms for corporate borrowers as Opec supply cut boosts investors’ mood. The FT says that, “the worst may soon be over for corporate borrowers from the battered US energy industry, per S&P Global, as a flurry of debt sales suggests investors are confident the Opec supply cut will help put a floor under the oil price. While defaults of energy groups will continue into 2017, analysts with the credit rating agency say they are likely to level out next year and that stresses on the energy sector will “eventually subside”.

    The FT cites deals from Chesapeake Energy, “the indebted US energy group and a pioneer of the shale industry, selling debt for the first time in two years.” With success and five energy deals that were completed on Tuesday — including offerings from Mexico national oil group Pemex, Parsley Energy, Rowan Companies and Matador Resources — marked the most since seven energy companies tapped markets on the same day in December 1993. Together the sales have firmly pushed the sector’s debt issuance above 2015’s pace, which was the slowest year since 2010, per Dealogic.

    Glencores also cut a major deal buying part of Russian Rosneft in a deal backed by Vladimir Putin. Putin has also sent a message to Russian oil companies that they are all going to cut production like it or not. I wonder if he has the same type of sway with other non-OPEC producers. Reuters says that some companies are turning to Chapter 11 creditor protection to shed debt and raise cash so they can spend and invest again. Add to that the hope that Donald Trump will allow producers to compete is fueling optimism and investment.

    We continue to believe that the run in oil is not done. Despite skepticism about the OPEC deal, we believe it is as good as done. We should see the market rally to congratulate the announcement.

    Natural gas took pause on the hope that the Arctic blast will be a short one. Still today the EIA injection, if we come in below expectations, should drive natural gas to a new high! Buy breaks!

    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1848514/Ruts Cuts Gluts. The Energy Report 12/08/16.html
     
  28. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    There is well over a $quadrillion notional value in derivatives. The vast majority are interest rate based. We just experienced one of the worst bond market selloffs in history in a period of one month.
    You can't tell me something isn't blowing up behind the scenes.
     
  29. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  30. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    10y yields peaked in the same area last summer. Will be interesting to see if rates break above that area(2.478ish) this time. Sure went up fast. I have a friend in the residential appraisal business and she's getting a bit nervous.
     
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  31. Cigarlover

    Cigarlover Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    After the election I said they might try to go for 20k on the dow. Nice round number. If this doesn't slow down we might make a run for 21k.
     
  32. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    The tea leaves appear to be sending some mixed signals about the election... seems Hillary may have been sponsored by MENA oil .... OPEC/Saudis/Quatar.

    Hillary Clinton Tops Middle East Forum’s ‘Islamist Money List’

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-govern...-tops-middle-east-forums-islamist-money-list/

    Meanwhile Trump is nominating the CEO of Exxon-Mobile as SoS. A man with close business ties to Putin & Russia.

    Rex Tillerson of ExxonMobil Expected to Be Named Trump's Secretary of State: Sources


    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...l-expected-be-named-trump-s-secretary-n694371

    This looks like the major Oil Companies & GS have had enuff of the Saudis/Quatar, etc., et al.

    Tonight Netanyahu, PM of Israel was on 60 minutes. He appeared to be very anti-Saudi.... Considering Trumps nominees to cabinet positions, looks like some future remapping in MENA could possibly occur.
     
  33. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    news of deal with opec and non-opec production has the oil market on the move, up over $2 bucks this am and setting new highs on the move

    yet, the USD is only down a small amt, 27 tics and still over 101

    rising oil will ripple thru the economy in a big way, prices, disposable cash, etc.
     
  34. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    10 yr treasury pokes over 2.50 this am,

    remembering that it was very recently way down at 1.50

    huge move in a short time
     
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  35. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil surges to 1 1/2-year high, Fed rate increase looms

    Monday December 12, 2016 07:07
    * Oil soars 5 percent as producers agree output cut

    * Bonds sell off, U.S. yield tops 2.5 percent as curve steepens

    * Dollar rises against yen, rouble gains on oil spike

    * China shares' loss biggest in six months, gold at 10-month low

    * Graphic: World FX rates in 2016 By Marc Jones

    LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 and U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak on Monday after the world's top crude producers agreed to the first joint output cut since 2001.

    Coming at the start of a week when the United States is expected to raise interest rates for the only the second time since the global financial crisis, the weekend agreement between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-OPEC states set the markets alive .

    Brent oil futures soared 5 percent to top $57 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and U.S. crude leapt above $54 a barrel to send global inflation gauges spiking as well. There was particular surprise as Saudi Arabia, the world's number one producer, said it may cut its output even more than it had first suggested at an OPEC meeting just over a week ago. "The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 percent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices," said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

    On the rise in bond yields, which tend to set global borrowing costs, he added: "The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement."

    European oil companies jumped more than 2 percent on the oil surge and helped the pan-regional STOXX50 index add 0.1 percent, having just had its best week in exactly five years .

    Bond markets in contrast were under heavy pressure. Euro zone government bond yields were sharply higher with German Bunds up 5 basis points at 0.40 percent as U.S. yields topped 2.5 percent for the first time since October 2014.

    "We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is boosting reflation expectations around the world," said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer with IG Markets.

    In another sign of the reflation trade, breakeven rates --the gap between yields of five-year U.S. debt and a matching tenor in inflation-protected securities -- were at two-month highs.

    Wall Street futures , meanwhile, pointed to the main U.S. indexes barely budging when they resume, having enjoyed an uninterrupted gain of nearly 4 percent over the past six sessions. FED UP

    Focus was also on the currency markets as the dollar rose to its highest since February against the Japanese yen , before what is almost certain to be the first rate hike of the year from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Japan's yen also tends to suffer when oil prices rise, since the country is a major importer.

    The Norwegian crown , Canadian dollar and Russia rouble were the big gainers from the oil deal. The rouble rose almost 2 percent against both the dollar and euro as Russia shares, which have rocketed almost 90 percent since January, hit the latest in a string of record highs. Overnight in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.5 percent after posting its biggest weekly rise in nearly three months last week.

    China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months as blue chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers' aggressive stock investments and rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.

    The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 2.4 percent, to 3,409.18 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.5 percent to 3,152.97 points.

    China's insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb "barbaric" acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended the insurance arm of China's Evergrande Group from conducting stock market investment.

    Concerns were also rumbling about U.S.-Sino relations after Donald Trump re-ignited controversy over Taiwan.

    "I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade," Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

    Emerging markets are already bracing for a difficult run if U.S. rate hikes push up the dollar and global bond yields.

    Turkey's lira has borne the brunt of much of the pressure in recent weeks, and it took another 1 percent hit alongside a sharp fall in Turkish bonds after data showed the country's economy suffering its first contraction since 2009 .

    Gold, meanwhile, which had a bumper first half of 2016, hit its lowest level since early February at $1,152 an ounce . <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates in 2016 Global assets in 2016 EM stocks performance in 2016 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong, editing by Larry King)



    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-12-1...-1-1-2-year-high-Fed-rate-increase-looms.html
     
  36. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Occupation:
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    *shrug* NARM has done 115 MM tons in the past. Another 16 would require more equipment. I do see NARM taking more share in the PRB because it has the lowest cost in the basin with a lot of low strip ratio coal in the inventory.


    Peabody Energy’s plan to emerge from bankruptcy will most likely end ironically.

    In another bankruptcy, that is.

    We’ve studied the plan and find it lacking in credibility on several points (here’s the underlying research memo we recently put together).

    http://ieefa.org/ieefa-alert-peabodys-plan-to-emerge-from-bankruptcy-is-likely-to-end-in-bankruptcy-again-
/
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
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  37. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    –NFIB Small Business Index is out at 6 AM EST. This is not major.

    – Import Prices m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is not major.

    – 30-y Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST. This is major.
     
  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Historic Deal Done. The Energy Report 12/12/16
    Monday, December 12, 2016

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group


    [​IMG]

    The skeptics had it wrong! Saudi Arabia and Russia secured what the Saudi oil minister says correctly is a “historic deal” with non-OPEC nations. This deal can only be described as a major diplomatic achievement and was done despite long odds. Not only was Saudi Arabia and the Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih able to put aside their animosity with Iran, they were also able to get Iran to commit to a ceiling on its output. Russia and Vladimir Putin helped orchestrate a deal with non-OPEC nations for the first time, adding to OPEC’s 1.2 million barrel a day cut.

    Because of Russia’s success sealing the deal with non-OPEC nations, the Saudi oil minister put the icing on the cake by saying, “I can tell you with absolute certainty that effective Jan. 1 we’re going to cut and cut substantially to be below the level that we have committed to on Nov. 30. If the market demands it, we are ready reduce our output under 10 million barrels a day.”

    Despite the skeptics, I predicted this outcome all along even as the negotiations had its series of ups and downs. I believed strongly that the deal to cut output would happen because the time was right. Two years ago on Thanksgiving, the last OPEC deal fell apart when then OPEC Secretary ALI Naimi could not get a firm commitment from Russia and Iran to cut production and a production war was declared. The Saudis hoped to drive shale producers out of business and at the same time, price some sense into other non-OPEC and OPEC producers. The move was not a total victory over the shale producers but it was enough to force many of them into bankruptcy and slow the meteoric rise of US output. And while it is possible that the OPEC move will help the shale producers rise output next year, OPEC and non-OPEC have enough of a lead with market share that it would not be a threat, at least over the next few years.

    We did see U.S. rig operators already respond in part because of higher prices and year end lease obligations. Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. oil rig count increased by 21 rigs to 498, the biggest increase since July, 2015. They also reported an increase of 6 gas rigs to 125. The increased drilling may slow a bit in the new year but the OPEC move may loosen up some more appetite for investments.

    The OPEC deal basically ensures that the global oil market will be in a deficit in the new year. We will then start to drawdown global stockpiles. As I said before, this could mean that crude oil may hit $60.00 a barrel by the end of this month or early next year and we could see a return of oil back towards the eight-dollar handle sometime next year. Shale operators and other producers that are too quick to hedge may regret it in a couple of years. There will be a tendency and perhaps a demand that they take what they can get today and forgo what could be significant upside in prices in the coming years.That means we will see gas prices and heating oil prices edge higher as well.

    Natural gas on the other hand backed off big as it might not be as cold as some have predicted. Still even with normal cold we may find that draws come in much higher than expected over the next few weeks. We still like the long side.

    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1850380/Historic Deal Done. The Energy Report 12/12/16.html
     
  39. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    They are gettin' right after the metals this am

    Gold now down 8.10 while the door stop is down 32
     
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  40. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    yet miners green.

    hmmm
     
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