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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    too much flopping around and doing nothing over there,

    so been adding to oil and gas

    natty is acting squirrely though
     
  2. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I'm thinking IF the Fed does raise the FFR target this month, they will surprise the market & move .50%, not the anticipated .25%.

    While the initial market reaction & consequence will provide further $ support, it will inflict some serious pain on Chinas attempt to stabilize the RMB Yuan thru UST selling along with increasing the debt loads on the EM's.

    A .50% raise would surely send a direct message to the Saudi/China/OPEC alliance & also provide the Fed with some much needed wiggle room should or when the next crisis developes.

    Its a rather monumental feat attempting to predict how the Fed will react as they possess access to the real unpoliticized economic data. Benchmark rates are rising on technicals, not fundamentals... Which could present a major challenge to FOMC policy makers. I'm placing the possibilityof a FFR raise @ 50/50, namely because the recent moves in market rates have been puely technical.
     
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  3. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    BB, she is too stupid for that,

    mommie gonna roll a .25
     
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  4. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    That would be the safe play at this apex, however judging by the rate of the technical rise in market rates, a .50% bump wouldnt surprise me.

    Lovely isnt it, the MSN, etc. et al call us bugs conspiracist, yet when a group of status quo special vested interests are institutionalized as a committee to artificially manipulate interest rates they dont call it a conspiracy! Naw, its not a conspiracy, they're only targetting rates, not setting them. Ok, I got it...

    FOMC.jpg
     
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  5. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    On an aside, per our conversation I dug into the rust bucket of quotes..... Hmmm!!! Is it time???

    "We operate here under directives which emanate from the White House... The substance of the directives under which we operate is that we shall use our grant making power to alter life in the United States such that we can comfortably be merged with the Soviet Union."

    by: Rowan Gaither
    [Horace Rowan Gaither, Jr.] (1909-1961) Attorney, investment banker, President of the Ford Foundation (1953-1956)

    Date: 1954

    Source: stated to Congressional Reese Commission investigator Norman Dodd

    http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Rowan.Gaither.Quote.45AE
     
  6. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I've had the same thought BB regarding 50bps. In fact, I thought they might rise 25bp a week or two ago post election and pre Fed meeting, then another 25bp tomorrow.

    Shows what I know.
     
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  7. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    ain't no way gentlemen

    that dog ain't got no bite

    she has been driving out of the rearview mirror the whole time, and she isn't about to look forward, do her job, and go Ohhh Chit!

    nawww
     
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  8. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    @ FF .... A .50% increase would certainly put a major hardship on the Chinese defending their currency peg. Its their selling of UST's that have technically driven rates up in such a short period of time. My thoughts concerning a 50bps increase is based upon how the Fed will resolve the Chins selling off UST's.... for whatever reasons. IOW the Fed may be forced to raise beyond their 0 - .25% as a measure to defend UST's against selling.

    A 50bps increase would produce some pain, but me thinks it would most likely act to transmit a policy signal to the Chins to terminate their selling. If such selling should continue, the Fed would prematurely start stepping up increases @ .50% which would surely inflict some damages on the BoC reserve collateral.

    Of course I may be very off-base, we'll soon see.
     
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  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    the chins have no recourse as they are selling because they have to

    keeping the chin dream alive

    they are grabbing their ass with both hands just as the sauds are
     
  10. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    The Empire strikes back?

    I guess the boys forgot to inform the Chins that Chinese energy policy is decided NY, London & Rome, not by them, the Sauds or OPEC, etc....

     
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  11. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    EPA says fracking can contaminate drinking water

    By Amy Harder
    Published: Dec 13, 2016 4:40 p.m. ET







    New report says full impact unknown due to lack of data


    [​IMG]
    Getty
    Workers tend to a natural gas valve at a fracking site in South Montrose, Pennsylvania, in 2012.
    WASHINGTON — Fracking can affect drinking water supplies in certain circumstances, the Obama administration said in a long-awaited report issued Tuesday, leaving open the possibility of more widespread impacts that it says can’t be determined with current data.

    The report, written by Environmental Protection Agency scientists, includes findings that are more open-ended than those in a draft version last year, when the agency said fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, isn’t having “widespread, systematic impacts on drinking water.”

    The final report doesn’t include that phrase because EPA scientists determined they couldn’t back it up without comprehensive data on hydraulic fracturing across the U.S. and because it didn’t “really communicate the findings in the report,” said Thomas Burke, deputy assistant administrator at EPA on a conference call with reporters Tuesday.

    In its draft report on fracking, the EPA said the cases of contamination it found “were small compared to the large number of” fracked wells in the nation. The final report says more broadly that the agency has scientific evidence that fracking activities “can impact drinking water resources under some circumstances.” When asked, Burke did reiterate the report’s earlier findings that the EPA found only a small number of cases of contamination but stressed the lack of data.

    An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/epa-says-fracking-can-contaminate-drinking-water-2016-12-13
     
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  12. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    damn straight!

    The Empire took out the emailer and the kenyan,

    They have had enough of the siths


    Sith
    An ancient order of Force-wielders devoted to the dark side, the Sith practice hate, deception, and greed. Notable for their red-bladed lightsabers, black dress, and use of their aggressive feelings, the Sith look to amass power at all costs. The evil Darth Sidious, along with his apprentice Darth Vader, achieved the Sith goal of galactic conquest after a millennia of plotting.
     
  13. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Core Retail Sales m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Capacity Utilization Rate is out at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.

    – Industrial Production is out at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.

    – Business Inventories m/m are out at 10 AM. This is not major.

    – Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Economic Projections are out at 2 PM EST. This is major

    – FOMC Statement is out at 2 PM EST. This is major.

    – Federal Funds Rate is out at 2 PM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Press Conference is out at 2 PM EST. This is major.
     
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  14. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Where are we on the chart?

    sentiment_cycles-600x411.jpg

    My interpretation places the Obama Administration "Hope you can believe in" at the stage of denial, while the election of Trump informs us as observers that we are deep into & inbetween the stages of fear & desperation. Cueing up now is the stage of panic. The GFC 2007-08 & subsequent reflation with its TARP, NIRP, & QE's, etc. represents the stage of denial, as the system failed to reform & reorganize. Essentially the equivalent of putting lipstick on a pig changes nothing, its still a pig.

    "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." --Albert Einstein

    Inevitably the stage of panic is coming, its only a matter now of when. The institutions such as the BOJ, ECB, FOMC, etc., et al which were created & organized to avoid and/or terminate panics will be found wanting, only capable of delaying panics & slumps. Perception & hope are strong animal instincts, but inevitable the Central Banks as institutions are just banks. They cannot continue to violate the laws of the universe without incurring Newtons third (3rd) law, "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction".

    I'm in awe that the baleing twine & duct tape has fooled so many into complacency, yet it seems that when looking into the abyss, theres not much choice but to accept the foolishness, frauds & corruption by authorities, or face a total collapse of our institutions & system. Its a "catch 22" for most everyone, "damned if you do, damned if you dont"!

    The real question lays in the aftermath of the "stage of panic". How will the bond, equities, commod & derivatives markets equitably resolve themselves? The complexities guarantee that the court cases will endure for years if not decades. How will the markets function with such ongoing commercial disputes between the participants???

    How will the institutional & small investors alike such as 401k, pension, insurance, mutual funds & credit markets react to a 51%+ fibbo correction and a powerless CB system that cannot reflate notional values & credit??? Will SSI, medicare & medicaid, etc. be capable of withstanding a major systemic levered banking, market, credit & collateral collapse if or when investment capitulation occurs?

    One must also consider demand for physical monetary units and the resulting reserve capital outflows that it will produce. A $43 tt bond market, a $24 tt equity market & $12 tt in commercial & private bank accounts all representing claims for $1.6 tt physical cash & coin. Authorities will possess no other options but to close the various markets & freeze bank accounts, limiting transactions to electronic forms only.

    The stages of capitulation & despondency will quickly transmute into the stage of depression when 401k participants learn their $750k account has diminshed into $250k and they are prohibited from accessing it. Pensioners will be severly cut and/or the pension funds will be liquidated. Bank accounts will be frozen as an insolvent FDIC is also found to be incapable of fully insuring depositors against losses. Insurance companies of every kind will be swept away as the systemic deleveraging and collateral/derivatives claims pyramid locks up. These institutions will be in chaos & inable to honor claims. Policy holders will abandon them!

    Do I believe these events are possible? Yes. Do I believe these events are probable? Yes. Do I believe these events will actually occur? Yes, to various degrees. However, history has shown that major socioeconomic slumps are turning points that are always followed by all out war. Remembering WWII & the "rationing" coupon system & the "Buy U.S. bonds" scheme.

    19a53722c9ebb0997a9aaf193116e019.jpg

    http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1674.html

    2016-12-14-07-27-52--37444601.jpeg

    images-1.jpeg

    Karl Marx circa 1847 in his little red book noted:

    "In these crises, a great part not only of the existing products, but also of the previously created productive forces, are periodically destroyed [/U] In these crises, there breaks out an epidemic that, in all earlier epochs, would have seemed an absurdity — the epidemic of over-production.[/B]

    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/communist-manifesto/ch01.htm#007

    It is the so called "epidemic of overproduction" of product that creates the problems, and the driving force of overproduction is debt, namely the overissuance of debt, i.e. monetary substitutes. J.M. Keynes described this a the "liquidity trap", to wit;

    "After the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity-preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers cash to holding a debt which yields so low a rate of interest. In this event the monetary authority would have lost effective control over the rate of interest.” --J.M. Keynes, General Theory

    War is essentially the tool of the ISM's that provides the "destructive forces" to destroy overproduction & escape the liquidity trap. All out war collects all of the scraps of metal, etc. produced during the previous cycle and recycles it into product to be destroyed in the function of war. War bonds & rationing are used to create national capital savings thereby recapitalizing the banking & market systems. Employment rises with the war effort, however rationing prevents luxury & semi-luxury goods consumption, people have money but nothing to spend it on. Debts get paid, savings increase, etc. all under the aegis of all out survival & war.

    "Who can make war with the beast?".... Good ???! How then does America with its hollowed out industrial & manufacturing base gear up for a major all out international conflict???

    images-2.jpeg

    "Make America Great Again"~~Donald Trump, POTUS Elect

    War requires major energy supplies, Check, fracking, coal, natty, etc.... The corporations must be enticed with incentives to return production & off-shore capital into the domestic markets. Check! Military, finance & energy actors must occupy high political offices. Check! From a cursory observation it does appear the U.S. is moving into a pre-war political & economic footing to "Make America Great Again." Lest not forget Ronnie the "fiscal inflator" was the sitting POTUS "Cold Warrior" when the Orthodox USSR was bled out as a civilization!

    images-3.jpeg

    Hot War serves as the "Trump Card" to provide the final profits on global obsolete & outdated products & production facilities, including overvalued financial products.

    All out war requires civilization(s) to fight against civilization(s). In looking for hints at the selected victim civilazation(s), the Islamic civilization has been weakened, demoralized & destabilized politically, socially & economically. China I suspect is the primary target with MENA the secondary victim. Both China & MENA politically & socially need a common enemy to come knock on their doorstep to provide the impetus to internally reorganize. Of course, like Japan & India, they will be indoctrinated into western thought, i.e. westernized. I suspect that Taiwan and/or the energy rich area of the Senkaku Island disputes will be used to initiate the conflict. The Sauds have built gas & oil pipelines into China effectively creating a loss of the direct control of energy flows by the Anglo-American empire. Indeed is it any wonder the POTUS elect is defacto declaring that the "One China" & "most favored nation" policies are politically concluding & terminating.

    From a historical view point, energy & commodity rich Orthodox Mother Russia will most prolly join on the Anglo-American side of the conflict. They too are experiencing economic, social & cultural disintegration. They are ripe for integration into western culture & economics.

    "We operate here under directives which emanate from the White House... The substance of the directives under which we operate is that we shall use our grant making power to alter life in the United States such that we can comfortably be merged with the Soviet Union."--Rowan Gaither, President of the Ford Foundation, 1954, testimony CongressionalReese Commission investigation

    It is well known by students of the life cycles of civilizations that "expansion arrests decay." In this sense, the west must expand or it will face the same fate that has destroyed ALL of the previous civilizations. Hence the terms "New World Order" & "World Government" are synonymous, but only if its controlled by the western elites!

    "We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The only question is whether World Government will be achieved by conquest or consent." -- James Paul Warburg, February 17, 1950, appearance before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

    Yes, a major all out conflict is on the horizon, its the only means for the west to push its final expansion. The push must come very soon, as the scheme is subjected to technological developements & innovations that could very easily derail the project....

    JMO

     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2016
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  15. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    re the Fed,

    I have long stated that even the top .gov agents are nothing but the best of the mediocre.

    Regarding the fed, this has been proven with Bernanke and now the dimwit yellen. Both of them, but most assuredly her, have these blank stares and lack of depth when you watch them.

    You can see the wheels turning as their brain is going into 'tilt' on any question asked, and it really is quite sad when you think about it.

    Notice how as BB mentioned to me, you never hear a peep out of burn'em now that he is no longer there. In other words, his opinion is worth zero to anyone. Fell off the earth it appears.

    Which in effect means that the fed is controlled by others and those that are in the media are nothing but order takers. Which of course is also why the .fed governors can only make recommendations but their votes are worth nothing as any voting they do can be overridden by the chairman.

    So even though I beat on her all the time, I need to remain cognizant that she is a nobody and for appearances only.
     
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  16. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    BB,

    the chart does not compute with known recent history
     
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  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    initial reaction has metal stocks in full dive mode,

    we will see if they try to recover from their rapid demise

    big volatility though and they are trying to work back up,

    big swings going on in minutes
     
  19. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    FF,

    thought the other day you were talking of inflation indexed bonds rather than TLT,

    My bad

    iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)

    NYSEArca - NYSEArca Real Time Price. Currency in USD
    Add to watchlist
    112.47-0.27 (-0.24%)
     
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  20. 90%RealMoney

    90%RealMoney Midas Member Midas Member

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    How much time left on Yellen's term? Just wondering if she is going to go out of her way to screw with Trump til then.
     
  21. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    SM reversing from up after Fed. Looks heavy to me.
     
  22. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    usd flying to the up,

    collapsing metals and oils,

    overreactions gallore right now,

    its a 1/4 pt people, for criminy sakes, as though she didn't even raise

    in other words a non-event and everyone is trippin'
     
  24. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Bonds trying to find some traction...
     
  25. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    financials reversing down. Might start to get ugly here for stocks ( short of a stick-save of course).
     
  26. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yeah, hardest part is to wait until after all the modern algo's and program trading tapers down,

    then you can get a real read on stuff
     
  27. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    my oils are getting killed, but natty is ok for now
     
  28. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    USD is capping out below old highs at 101.60 right now
     
  29. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Fed raises rates, sees faster pace of increases in 2017
    [​IMG]Economy31 minutes ago (Dec 14, 2016 02:01PM ET)


    [​IMG] © Reuters. A police officer keeps watch in front of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington

    The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday and signaled a faster pace of increases in 2017 as the Trump administration takes over with promises to boost growth through tax cuts, spending and deregulation.

    The rate increase, regarded as a virtual certainty by financial markets in the wake of a string of generally strong economic reports, raised the target federal funds rate 25 basis points to between 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent.

    "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the committee decided to raise the target range," the central bank's policy-setting committee said in its unanimous statement after a two-day meeting.

    "Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined," the Fed said, noting that market-based measures of inflation compensation had moved up "considerably."

    More significant was a fresh batch of Fed policymaker forecasts that indicated the current once-a-year pace of rate increases will accelerate next year.

    With President-elect Donald Trump planning a simultaneous round of tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure, central bank policymakers shifted their outlook to one of slightly faster growth, lower unemployment and inflation just under the Fed's 2 percent target.

    The Fed's median outlook for rates rose to three quarter-point increases in 2017 from two as of September. That would be followed by another three increases in both 2018 and 2019 before the rate levels off at a long-run "normal" 3.0 percent.

    That normal level is slightly higher from three months ago, a sign that the Fed feels the economy is still gaining traction.

    The Fed continued to describe that pace as "gradual," keeping policy still slightly loose and supporting some further improvement in the job market. It sees unemployment falling to 4.5 percent next year and remaining at that level, which is considered to be close to full employment.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT) to elaborate on the decision.

    TRUMP IMPACT

    U.S. bond yields had already begun moving higher following the election and as expectations of the Fed rate increase solidified. By the start of this week, trading in fed funds futures assigned a greater than 95 percent likelihood to a rate hike, according to data compiled by the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME).

    All 120 economists in a recent Reuters poll had expected a rate hike on Wednesday.

    In the weeks following Trump's Nov. 8 victory, Fed policymakers have said his proposals could push the economy into a higher gear in the short run. Even though the details of the Republican businessman's plans remain uncertain, Wednesday's statement marked a rare case in the post-crisis era in which the Fed moved its interest rate outlook higher.

    Risks to the outlook remain "roughly balanced" between factors that could slow or accelerate the economy beyond what the central bank anticipates, the Fed said, no change from the November assessment.

    The rate increase was the first since last December and only the second since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, when the Fed cut rates to near zero and deployed other tools such as massive bond purchases to stabilize the economy.

    http://www.investing.com/news/econo...-sees-faster-pace-of-increases-in-2017-447610
     
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  30. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    When Yellen speaks, it's like soothing music to the Stock Market's ears. :finished 2:
     
  31. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I hear ya, but right now sm's are coughing up a hairball
     
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  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    oils and metal stocks still getting the hammer with the dollar strength
     
  33. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    30 yr bond back to green.

    now just need gold to turn back around...
     
  34. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
    closes in 1 hr. 47 mins.
    Dec 14, 2016 15:13 NY Time
    Bid/Ask 1146.70 / 1147.70
    Low/High 1143.40 / 1166.10
    Change -11.30 -0.98%
    30daychg -74.30 -6.09%
    1yearchg +85.80 +8.09%
     
  35. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    USD poking up to new highs on the move, almost 102 now

    That dollar move is raising Cain across the board,

    We had spoke to rate rises here increase the spread compared to other countries/currencies and become a self fulfilling prophecy

    Point is, not a positive for metals

     
  36. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    GCG17

    Gold (Feb '17)
    1,148.5

    -10.5

    1,159.8
    1,168.0
    1,145.7
    177,211
    14:17 CT


    SIH17
    Silver (Mar '17)
    16.950

    -0.027

    16.965
    17.290
    16.880

    Gold breaks support at 1150 and heads for drop dead at 1140-45
     
  37. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Bonds now going down with stocks.
     
  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    not in it, but incredibly, VXX finishes down on the day with the spx down 18

    talk about a POS as you stated FF,
     
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  39. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  40. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    US exporters must be loving on the dollar strength vs even crapier crap. lol

    Rising rates plus a stronger dollar, yeah lemme rush into those sectors.
     

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