1. Repeal of kenyan care to happen today, Markets choppy as direction is lacking
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  2. Good Fri Morning! Gold is down 2.9 to 1244, while Silver is +2 to 1761. Crude is +32 to 4802. The USD is down 8 to 9948.
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  3. Week of 3/18/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1230.20-- UP 28.8 Silver $17.41-- UP 49 Oil $49.31-- UP 82 TICS USD $100.11 -- DOWN 100 tics Based on near term futures contract--- At JMB Current price AGE 2017 $1299.09 (1), SAE $20.54 (20)

Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Somewhere this morning I read that Trump thinks the dollar is too strong.
     
  2. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I think with the reality of the tramp inauguration,

    that the markets are going to have a comin' to Hesus moment

    I dare say that longer term, tramp is real good for gold
    Simple, he likes it, he holds it, he has traded it in deals, he plasters it all over everything,
     
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  3. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Make America Gold again? :ponder:
     
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  4. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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  5. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    fyi,

    average volume for GDX is 37M a day,

    so far today, it is 43M and climbing
     
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  6. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – CPI m/m is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.

    – Core CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Capacity Utilization Rate is out at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.

    – Industrial Production m/m at 9:15 AM EST. This is major.

    – NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 11 AM EST. This is major.

    – Beige Book is out at 2 PM EST. This is major.

    – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at 3 PM EST. This is major.

    – TIC Long-Term Purchases is out at 4 PM. This is not major.
     
  7. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Building Permits is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.

    –Philly Fed Mfg Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Housing Starts is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM. This is major.

    – Crude Oil Inventories is out at 11 AM EST. This is major.

    – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at 8 PM EST. This is major.
     
  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    here you can see the USD taking a break, which lent to metals strength of late:

    1.png
     
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  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    metals getting a hefty haircut relative to the recent moves in the dollar,

    hot money moving around in metals right now, not really investors or buy and holders........
     
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  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    gold and silver continue to swoon as housing starts, etc show strong numbers,

    which is comical, as that is future inflation for sure which supposedly metals are good in that environment
     
  11. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I'm beginning to believe & think that the metals are not held for either inflation or deflation, but rather for deleveraging & contractions of credit, financial & monetary aggragates that serve as proxy values for money. Noting that in 1980-81 Volker herded the bond & later the equities bull into existence essentially diverting & incarcerating systemic credit inflation into long term financial assets. These bulls did result in the containment of realized credit inflation on the street, but underneath the surface inflation has been roaring all along fueling bonds, equities & real estate while real wages continued their descent in real purchasing power parity (PPP]). The loss of PPP in deflating wages forced the working classes into substituting, accepting & using credit to maintain their standard of living. Once credit was substituted for rising wages, general demand for wage increases diminished allowing the corps to pay much lower remuneration for labor which fueled corporate profits, which fueled equities which fueled bonds!

    The scheme works until labor is debted out and begins demanding rising wages to service their debt loads & maintain their standard of living. Which means somethings gonna/gotta give in the future... If wages begin to rise corp profits will decline creating a bear market in financial assets... However this scenario is unlikely as global labor and wages are under pressure from an oversupply of workers and also under pressure from automation & machines destroying jobs. Which brings us to the question of how will the previous emissions & flotations of credit be serviced by the debtors under the pressure of stagnant real wages & a general price index that is rising 3.3% - 4% on average per annum or about 33% - 40% per decade??? Sooner or later these conditions will erupt into a full blown crisis resulting in cascading systemic wide defaults & delevering... I think this is when both AU & AG will rocket in currency terms & shine brightly again.....
     
  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  13. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The very high inflation in general price index and stagnant wages is probably one of the main causes of corruption in India? If we can believe the numbers put out from REsrve bank of India, not much black money surfaced after the demonetization. That means the black money was used to consume and sustain a modicum of living standard! Just my conjecture
     
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  14. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yep madhu,

    and proving that the people are not as stupid as the rulers would have you believe, especially those that are skirting the rules of the game
     
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  15. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    It's called treading water. At some point the economy is going to become exhausted, slip beneath the surface and drown
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2017
  16. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Foreclosed mall once valued at $190M is auctioned for $100

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pittsburgh-mills-mall-scheduled-foreclosure-143108414.html

    "Wells Fargo Bank foreclosed in 2015 on the Pittsburgh Mills. The bank says it is owed $142.9 million, including deferred payments, interest charges and other costs, according to legal documents in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania.

    "Interested bidders are required to submit a 20 percent, non-refundable deposit on their bid on Wednesday. However, Wells Fargo can also bid on the property without being on the hook for the deposit or final price tag, according to a legal notice.

    "That’s because the sale is part of what’s called a credit bid, said David Rudov, a Pittsburgh attorney who specializes in bankruptcies and is not affiliated with this case. Basically, the entity that holds the original lien can use the amount owed in the bidding process “to fend off people who want to go bottom fishing,” he said.

    "Typically in such sales, if someone makes a low-ball bid that the lender doesn’t want to accept, the lender can bid what is owed on the property and then take it over.

    “Then the lender can seek to resell the property through its own protocols,” Mr. Rudov said."


    http://www.post-gazette.com/busines...ng-Pittsburgh-Mills-mall/stories/201701170031
     
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  17. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I remember reading several books by Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics @ Southern Methodist University in the late 1990's. Dr Batra was/is most different than mainstream economists, namely he acutely observed that the present quasi-capitalist system was existing on borrowed time, and he thru his books attempted to inform & warn the policy makers, the intellectual elite & the general public of the pending & coming economic & financial disaster. The MSM & mainstream economists scoffed at his conclusions back in the later 1990's & early 2000's.

    Batra concluded that real wages were not keeping pace with inflation and the general price index which was forcing the general working classes to use evermore credit to subsidize their declining standard of living.

    He also observed that declining wages were padding the pockets of .gov & corporations of every kind. Which in turn artificially supported much higher p/e' & valuations in the equities & bond markets.

    The catastrophe would unfold when credit of every kind could no longer subsidize the wages, which in turn would highly reduce corporate profits which in turn would create major corrections in every aspect of the financial markets as credit aggregates contract back to the natural equalibrium between wages, credit & the general price index.

    The exportation of jobs, the mechanization of production, robotics & globalization have all contributed to pressuring real wages lower & lower, and the pressure is only going to increase as technology progresses.

    I think Batra observed this many years before it becomes apparent to most economic interests& participants. He was just 20+ yrs to early!
     
  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Flash Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.

    – Existing Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM. This is major.
     
  19. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    European factories continued to expand output in January as employment surged to a nine-year high and activity hit the fastest pace since 2011.

    Martin Baccardax

    Follow
    Jan24,20174:12AMEST


    European factories continued to expand output in January, according a private sector reading of currency area growth, as employment surged to a nine-year high and activity hit the fastest pace since 2011.

    Markit Economics composite reading of Eurozone growth edged modestly lower in January, coming in at 54.3 compared to the the five-and-a-half-year high 54.4 in December but well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. However, Markit's measure of manufacturing activity rose to 55.1 (from 54.9 in December) to its highest level in 69 months as the pace of new hires accelerated firmly.

    SMALL INVESTMENT, BIG POTENTIAL. TheStreet's Stocks Under $10 has identified a handful of stocks with serious upside potential. See them FREE for 14-days.

    "The eurozone economy has started 2017 on a strong note. The January flash PMI is signalling respectable quarterly GDP growth of 0.4% with a broad-based expansion across both manufacturing and services," said Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson.

    "It's not all good news: with costs rising steeply due to higher commodity prices and the weak euro, while selling price growth remains subdued, margins are being squeezed to the greatest extent for over five years," Williamson noted. "However, the recent strengthening of demand is at least starting to help restore some pricing power among suppliers, hinting at an upturn in core inflationary pressures."

    The euro traded modestly lower following the data, changing hands at 107.48 against the U.S. dollar, although the greenback's weakness continues to make currency pair readings difficult to assess.

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/139...es-to-fastest-pace-since-2011-in-january.html
     
  20. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I know most dont want to hear it, but all indicators are pointing to the rockets fieling up & getting ready for lifting off the next great bull run... I think lift off will commence once MENA is reorganized.
     
  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – HPI m/m is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.

    – Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.
     
  22. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Metals, oil, and USD all down this am,

    Silver broke under 17, while the USD is threatening to go back under 100

    Disconnects for sure across the board this am
     
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  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Goods Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Prelim Wholesale Inventories is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is not major.

    – Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.

    – New Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – CB Leading Index m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.
     
  24. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Jobless claims jumped to 259K from 233

    Inventories up 1%

    Trade balance $65B
     
  25. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  26. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Like everyone, I have no idea where the markets will go over the near term.

    What I do know is that there are massive "unbalanced" positions in place that if unwound quickly will look like a full fledged financial panic.
     
  27. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    aca889a7449ed569f28e83171c792481.jpg
     
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  28. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    chart showing the virtual collapse of the mehican fiat vs the USD

    I guarantee you that NAFTA did not accommodate such a move in the cross


    1.jpg
     
  29. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Advance GDP q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Advance GDP Price Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Core Durable Goods Orders is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Durable Goods Orders m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM. This is not major.

    – Revised UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM. This is not major.
     
  30. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    4th qtr GDP,

    less than 2% yet again from the kenyan

    yearly rate somewhere around 1.9%
     
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  31. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    2017-01-27-07-58-03-1059038235.jpeg
     
  32. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Seen the VXX lately?

    sc.png
     
  33. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Core PCE Price Index m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    –Personal Spending m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    –Personal Income m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Pending Home Sales m/m is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – Loan Officer Survey is out at 10 AM. This is not major.

    Commentary
    As it turns out the US GDP rose by 1.9% which for America is a pittance. The US economy is accustomed to seeing 4-5% growth annually but this economy hasn’t seen that in quite some time. A hindrance to economic growth? Interest rate hikes doesn’t help much at all and in fact is a surefire way to keep consumer spending at bay and mind you 70% of economic growth in the United States is via consumer spending. Given that this week the Fed will hold an FOMC Meeting, I sincerely hope that they will keep this in mind, because the more they raise the worse it will get….
     
  34. Oldmansmith

    Oldmansmith Midas Member Midas Member

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    Don't you think that is the FEDs plan? Raise rates, cause recesssion, blame Trump?
     
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  35. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    7 mm production jobs have disappeared from the US Economy over the last decade. These we would think would be great growth contributors & factors.... and they are, but to what degree as automation, computerization & mechanization of the means of production continue to marginalize labor.

    The ? now becomes a matter of determining the true growth rate @ equalibrium of a technologically advancing mature economy. An economy where the capital of labor is being phased out of the production, transportation & various other sectors.

    If technologically advancing Japan is employed as a model, we observe that high tech has been both outwardly & inwardly deflationary to that economy since the 1990's. An economy "supposedly" mired in anemic growth. Which brings us to the US Economy, is the growth really 1.9%, or is the derived number & its computation a relic of a bygone era? Expressly has the methodology of computing the data outlived its usefulness & is now obsolete?

    Secondly, what is the outgrowth growth @ equalibrium of a mature economy when most of its major infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams, electrical & communications grids, utilities, etc.) has been previously built? How do we determine an accurate bench mark for growth in a mature economy considering the foregoing factors?

    First is the 1.9% growth rating accurate & secondly does it accurately reflect economic activity & progress in the age of progressive technical expansion? Thirdly just who is the accounting scheme aimed at? Indeed, advancing tech & innovation is "debt" deflationary to the money lenders as the velocity of asset values diminish & become obsolete & outdated faster & faster. It was for these reasons "THE" Gold Standard was abandoned, this monetary standard was blamed & held responsible for producing deflationary cycles, yet here we are again! The Fiat Standard IS NOT unlimited, it has greater elasticity than a substance based reserve asset system like gold, silver or even oil, but it does possess limits.

    I think another factor that must be considered per the growth factor is outstanding debt. 1.9% may not be great compared to say $500 bb in debt, but when you consider 1.9% of $60+ tt the RoD is about $1.2 tt annually.

    I think there are numerous ways of considering these growth numbers rather than from their numerical values of 1.9% v the previous 4% cycle of growth.
     
  36. REO 54

    REO 54 Midas Member Midas Member

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    BB, it's been said that " figures lie and liars figure ".

    I think that that holds true in these times.
     
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  37. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The fiat standard is NOT unlimited. But it has greater elasticity than substance based monetary unit. Very true.
    If I go to the casino, yes they will give me markers upto a point and then certainly shove you out with your credit cards maxed out.
     
  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Fed meeting today,

    USD is almost to 100 at 100.03

    Metals flying to the up on this
     
  39. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Employment Cost Index q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.

    – Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.

    – CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM. This is major.
     
  40. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Stock sell off being blamed on executive orders being issued,

    amazon vows to support all affected by those,
     

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