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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Exactly.
    Exporting inflation to countries with a net ROI. The prices of goods in India cost as much as in America for things that you need. (Price of energy/transportation is globally determined). Remember with the slave wages many here cannot afford and it is painful for the majority to get by in India. The only difference is that there are jobs that dont pay enough.

    There is a sustained effort to increase internal consumption of luxury goods and services. But there are not many takers. People don't like to borrow and spend lavishly here. The result is that standard of living is not going up. There is a cap on government spending by rating companies like Moodys. The Reserve bank of India warned the government on curbing fiscal deficits.

    Excess creation of debt based money that has been invested into stock markets, housing markets and subsequent significant (multi decade lows) fall in velocity of money supply ( charts go back to 1960) is not good. ? Will this trigger failure to pay interest on the debt? This multi decade low decrease in velocity cause further deflation and bankruptcies of the asset itself? How long can people hold on to losing proposition?

    That means pensioners, low wage earners are going to be mad.
     
  2. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  3. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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  4. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    What is 'M2'
    M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money." M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money refers to savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds and other time deposits. These assets are less liquid than M1 and not as suitable as exchange mediums, but they can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.

    BREAKING DOWN 'M2'
    M2 is a broader money classification than M1, because it includes assets that are highly liquid but are not cash. A consumer or business typically doesn't use savings deposits and other non-M1 components of M2 when making purchases or paying bills, but it could convert them to cash in relatively short order. M1 and M2 are closely related, and economists like to include the more broadly defined definition for M2 when discussing the money supply, because modern economies often involve transfers between different account types. For example, a business may transfer $10,000 from a money market account to its checking account. This transfer would increase M1, which doesn’t include money market funds, while keeping M2 stable, since M2 contains money market accounts.

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp
     
  5. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    not in my view
     
  6. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    So we have deflation happening then?
     
  7. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    not yet,

    massive massive inflation of money is causing the collapse in velocity IMO

    $1.2T just laying around in zeroland by US companies speaks to this as well as many other factors
     
  8. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    No..... what we NOW have is a MESS that has traveled well beyond any & all accepted orthodox methods, organization or economic theory. TARP, ZIRP, NIRP, QE's etc. have rather than stabilize the various G7 economies & trading principles, these policies have essentially created further destabilization... as Scorp has been pointing out for 5+ yrs., flooding the markets with nonexstinguishable synthetic elastic monetary aggregates created via debt has effectively diminished first the "quality" & secondly the "velocity" of circulation to new lows. When debt is used as nonextinguishable money it possesses an inferior "marginal utility", namely debt can only grow larger as the previous flotations cannot be liquidated except thru two possibilities.... 1. default 2. exchange rates. Default is a vague & flexible term. If a debtor defaults, the debt is merely transfered, it may lose some or all of its original vitality, but nominally it still exists, as the system is not designed or operated to liquidate debt, but rather to accumulate & transfer it!

    "Ever since 1971, money has been tied not to positive but to negative values -- the value of debt instruments.

    This innovation has had two immediate consequences, both of which are pointedly ignored in the technical and scholarly literature on the subject: (1) the power to reduce the world's total debt in the course of normal payments has been lost: total indebtedness can now be reduced only through default or through currency depreciation; (2) countries have lost the option to balance their current accounts with the rest of the world: each country has to cope with unending deficits.*****

    *****That we have lost the facility to reduce the world's total indebtedness without resorting to default or monetary depreciation becomes clear at once if we consider the fact that a debt of x dollars can no longer be liquidated. If it is paid off by a check, the debt is merely transferred to the bank on which the check is drawn. The situation is no better if it is paid off by handing over x dollars in Federal Reserve notes, ostensibly the ultimate means of payment. In this case the debt is transferred to the U.S. Treasury, the ultimate guarantor of these liabilities. But substituting one debtor for another is not the same as liquidating the debt. The very notion of `debt maturity' has lost all reasonable meaning previously attached to it. At maturity the creditor is coerced into extending his original credit plus accrued interest in the form of new credits, usually on inferior terms.
    It is true that the option to consume his savings remains open to him -- but is it not a strange monetary system, to say the least, which forces the savers to consume their savings whenever they are dissatisfied with the quality of available debt instruments, or with the terms on which they are offered?

    http://www.usagold.com/whithergold.html

    Fekete (supra) failed to consider all the options available to savers, as he points out; 1. they can consume their savings, 2. they can refloat the savings in the form of new loans, he didnt consider #3. they can just facilitate the sitting on their profits & savings.... i.e. hoarding less riskier "quality" liquid assets in lieu of perceived or real risky credit market lending to generate a profit on a profit.

    The system of soft political & economicc slavery is reliant upon endless greater volumes of lending to create inflation greater than previous inflation. When it fails to perform the new flotations velocity drops like a rock..... The story doesnt end there. The FED & Obama administration poured trillions of new $ denominated credit into the global system over the past 8 yrs.... These financially engineered operations were abject failures in certain senses, namely the quantity of flotations lacked "quality." Quality means the ability to generate profits from the debt, i.e. the "utility of debt". Substituting quantity for quality is a Pollyanna political illusion & a monumental monetary error & mistake as real values are obviated while nominal balance sheet values are elevated in monetary terms to create the illusion of growth.

    The FED lowered nominal rates to 2%, the Obama admin then increased US Treasury debt $8+ tt.... velocity of circulation continued its record descent into the monetary abyss. WHY? The debt created lacked quality. It was exchanged in the economy once or twice but was never deployed into productive wealth generating growth enterprises.... IOW it was quickly consumed leaving only a liability of the US Treasuries balance sheet.

    This is the most damnable concept of the Liberal, Marxist & Socialists ideology, namely they believe that more money, more money & even more money expressed in monetary terms will create their version & vision of Utopia... Everyone in Zimbabwe was a trillionaire denominated in Zim dollars. How did that work out for them???

    Money, however defined must be capable of being put to use to increase standards of living & thereby create profits. The process increases the wheels of productivity & accelerates the velocity of circulation.... a declining velocity is the true measure of economic activity, GDP, labor employment & all the other BLS reports, etc. are just measures of money at work & the speed at which it is working. As the charts evidence, quality productive money is vacationing on the Riviera while the global financialization "PROTECTION" scam implodes on the elite illusionists of Washington, London, Tokyo & Wall Street....
     
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  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    that is it in a nutshell,

    Untold Trillions created since 2008, and to what end? A measily gdp growth and a labor part rate that still cannot crawl above 63%?

    While we see the story of the US debt added per year as we run unending deficits, there has been no accounting for the fiat that was created and dispersed at the time.

    There were arguments floating around of $12-15T sent to zeroland back then, not to mention asia.

    Awhile back we reviewed banks and the Tarp funds BB speaks to, and in those were some really good regional banks. I questioned one of them on it. I was told they were 'forced' to take 'their share' and required to pay it back with interest. The good banks paid it off as soon as they were 'allowed' to.

    More and more inputs to rape and pillage carrying less and less back home to their masters.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2017
  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    not so long ago, they used to be able to send out those money soldiers, and they would come back with all manner of goodies, taxes and factories and cars and slaves.

    now they go out, after begging for more humvees, drones, soldiers, and weapons, and they return with but a 'reeses peanut butter cup from the vending machine in a cafeteria of a closed rusted hulk of what was once american manufacturing'.
     
  11. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    WHAT IF.... most of these reports are merely accounting procedures? Kinda like having a policy adjustment entry on the journals & financial statement. Considering Obama admin reportedly spent over $1+ tt for his 8 year tenure ($8+ tt)... Where did it go??? Same can be said of the $12-15 tt to the EU, where did it go??? We're talking about $20 - $25 tt in instant credit... where is it, as it essentially cannot be liquidated once its released into the system.... Thats a grunch that cannot be visibly seen, observed in operation or accounted for. Or was it really just a CB heist of monumental proportions....???
     
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  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Is this what has the intelligence agencies pissed off? Makes ya wonder.
     
  13. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I like to define money as "work credits", seems to fit well for me.
     
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  14. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    And a lot of them pour through EBT cards into wallmarts and hence to chinese products, junkfood and soda. Even rents paid are non-productive uses IMO. That money often just goes back to the bank to pay off the loan.
     
  15. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    Good rant. I see that most of the money created goes nowhere productive, I was just trying to get my head around the inflation/deflation consequences of falling velocity. Down here, as in the rest of the world the system is the same, and for 8 years we have had stagnant home prices and rents but escalating power and food bills. Stagnant prices for consumer goods like electronics and autos but rising prices for services like plumbing, yard maintenance. Gold and silver have likewise stagnated for years.
     
  16. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Export inflation, import deflation... imported goods & services decline priced in $, exported goods & services rise priced in $. Domestic food, energy & services are priced as export products, hence the rising domestic prices in certain domestic sectors. Globalisation & Deflation is expensive!
     
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  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    USD catches a bid this am and back over 100, +69 tics so far this am

    Metals flat to down on this, with crude also showing weakness
     
  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    –JOLTS Job Openings is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST. This is major.
     
  19. Merlin

    Merlin Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Peter Schiff hooked me back in 1977 with his argument that the US$ was toast. I have no one to blame but myself because I actually believed what he was telling me -- still do. But the timing is all wrong and my foreign shares have lost about half their value in the past 10 years. Yes, I know I have taken money out of the accounts; but it was mostly dividends paid -- nowhere near the amount of value lost.
     
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  20. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    man you said it,

    these people that continue to propagate nonsense is infuriating.

    the dollar doens't exist but as a index to other currencies first of all, meaning that if the dollar did in fact die, all the others are dead and buried.

    ? :: Alexa What does dollar die mean?

    Alexa: That cannot be computed using modern vernacular.

    The dollar only moves in concert with what others are doing, up, down, or sideways, but always linked to the others.

    That is part of the game, the scheme behind the 'reserve currency'.
     
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  21. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Amazing how few understand that simple concept Scorp. Even here where most have a well above average understanding of economics there are many that cannot see past that particular bit of propaganda. Really tough to reject the brainwashing we grew up with I guess.
     
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  22. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    But why would you blame yourself. Its a rigged game. Capitalism wins as long as there are new believers. The ponzi starts to unravel when everyone wants to cash out at the same time?
     
  23. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    What capitalism? What capital? All I see is a massive pyramid of debt.

    If every dollar wasn't someone else's liability then yeah, everyone could theoretically cash out at the same time. Say if gold or even US Notes were the only money then things wouldn't be so bleak at this time.
     
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  24. BackwardsEngineeer

    BackwardsEngineeer If I weren't a snowflake, I'd have no luck at all Silver Miner

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    Great rant guys, enlightening and all that...
    Problem is still have to buy groceries, pay utilities and if bud fox would ever come back hookers and blow. That takes dollars, plain and simple. So will someone please answer the obvious question, know all this what do you do? Gold and silver might shine one day like God's face on the mountain, but have been a dog with fleas for five years in dollar terms. Real estate has many challenges, ad velorum, renters rights and a mountain of bad tax laws plus I really don't want another job. Bonds well... now that is funny. So that leaves the markets.... or bury it in the backyard.
     
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  25. Merlin

    Merlin Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Even with the current slump in prices, the gold and silver I have purchased over the past 13 years has returned 100% on average. By far the best investment that I have made.
     
  26. BackwardsEngineeer

    BackwardsEngineeer If I weren't a snowflake, I'd have no luck at all Silver Miner

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    Merlin on with you but...

    HZNP, UNH and CYS have been in and out of my portfolio.... those $3 shares of hznp we sold two years ago for 34.65 were the real deal though, long term gains I'd do that again....
     
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  27. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    fair enough,

    were you buying apple at 100 to watch it go to 131 just recently?
    were you buying cat at 80 and watching it go to 93?
    or nvidia at 68 and watching it go to 119?

    me neither, as it isn't my game

    there are ops everywhere, you just have to choose your path,
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2017
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  28. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Gartman is on now stating there may be a downdraft ahead in the oil markets,

    Says hedgies are long long, and risk is up along with lower demand profiles,
     
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  29. BackwardsEngineeer

    BackwardsEngineeer If I weren't a snowflake, I'd have no luck at all Silver Miner

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    Thanks for confirming... it's not what you said, it's what you didn't.
    Understand the market has many versions of opportunity, I tend to focus on stocks ten bucks and under, really like the 2 to 4. So no would never had those on a radar, as apple's growth of 31% is awesome in light of a 14 billion EU tab on the horizon. Same time frame bought ONVO at 2.6, now 3.6, just easier to get % growth on small dollar numbers.

    What you didn't say was Au or Ag physical....
     
  30. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I hear that,

    Actually, still holding some gold and silver stocks for now, as like you say, they are low buck

    I hold some Natty also, but that isn't doing for boo.

    Waiting on crude as it is doing nothing.

    As for physical metals, I choose my spots not really based on price alone.
     
  31. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Final Wholesale Inventories is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.

    – Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM. This is major.

    – 30-y Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Evans Speaks at 1:10 PM EST. This is major.
     
  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Oil More and Less. The Energy Report 02/08/17
    Wednesday, February 08, 2017

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group


    [​IMG]

    Oil prices are getting hit on conflicting data that on one hand the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is showing that global oil inventories are tightening sooner than it previously expected but on the other hand, blindsided by a weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that showed U.S. crude supply increased by a stunning 14.4 million barrels. The EIA said that crude production will hit the highest level in 43 years but they are at the same time reducing this years U.S. oil output expectations. Contradictions abound leading to confusion and the biggest 2-day oil selloff of the year.

    The EIA, in their Short-Term Energy outlook, said that global oil supply and demand is now expected to be largely in balance during 2017 as the gradual increase in world oil inventories that has occurred over the last few years comes to an end. This is a big change and an acknowledgement that we are going to see, “Improved economic growth in both developed and emerging market countries is expected to contribute to higher global oil demand over the next two years.”

    But to contradict that there are some concerns about China’s demand. Despite record oil imports, China’s 2016 oil demand grew at the slowest pace in at least three years, per Reuters. They say that China’s implied oil demand growth eased to 2.5 percent in 2016, down from 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2014, led by a sharp drop in diesel consumption and as gasoline usage eased from double-digit growth. The slowing occurred as the economy expanded by only 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest pace in 26 years.

    The EIA also reported, “U.S. crude oil production in 2017 is expected to be about 100,000 barrels per day higher than in 2016, with production rising another 550,000 barrels per day in 2018. Still at 550,000 barrels a day added, 2018 would still be short of the 1.5 million that OPEC is cutting assuming they continue to comply with the agreement and extend that. That may be a possibility as Bloomberg reports, “In principle, OPEC must cut output in the second half, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said, per the Fars news agency. The issue needs further study before the group can decide, Zanganeh said, after meeting in Tehran with his counterpart from Venezuela, also a OPEC member.”

    Of course, today the market must shake off that massive and crazy 14.2-million-barrel crude oil build. Don’t say it’s all shale oil because that would be twice the daily U.S. output but the build is feeding the narrative that shale will replace OPEC cuts. Long term it won’t but when we see massive builds in supply it is hard to make that argument.

    Market Watch points out that the EIA had forecast small annual average supply builds in both 2017 and 2018, but changed it after “significant revisions” to historical data on liquid fuel consumption, which includes crude oil. So, despite the crazy builds, the EIA sees U.S. supplies falling.

    The API also reported that Cushing, OK oil supply increased by 624k, gas by 2.9 Million and distillates by 1.37 million barrels. The supply increases are technical damage to the charts and we are hanging by a thread just over support. Bigger picture, the trading range between 50 and 55 a barrel is still valid and we look like we could be testing that. A breach of $50 could drive us down to $46 which to me would be shocking because we believe that the EIA is right, albeit conservative, about demand.

    We predict that demand growth will be at a 10-year high next year and the U.S. oil glut will be a memory. Of courses that is tough to say after that 14.2-million-barrel build. The EIA status report may be a make or break moment for oil.
    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1897409/Oil More and Less. The Energy Report 02/08/17.html
     
  33. BackwardsEngineeer

    BackwardsEngineeer If I weren't a snowflake, I'd have no luck at all Silver Miner

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    Landed from Costa Rica late last night.... have several things rambling in my head will come out over the next weeks.
    First one, maybe mentioned before and I missed but why do none of tickers agree anymore on spot Au or Ag? The two on the front cover here plus my netDania one I use for looking at some stuff different still. The reason I'm asking is one of Clif's temporal markers is a disconnect in pricing in metals, pennies at first leading to huge disconnect between in my hand and potentially available.
     
  34. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  35. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    Interesting how the US media, China and japan, are up in arms about the administrations plans to put tariffs on some imports. The EU has put tariffs on Chinese steel to protect their industry and it's gone virtually unnoticed.

    EU slaps steep tariffs on cheap Chinese steel 7 October 2016
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/07/eu-slaps-steep-tariffs-on-cheap-chinese-steel/

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    The European Union has slapped tariffs of up to 73.7% on Chinese steel after manufacturers were forced to cut jobs due falling prices and demand for the material amid an influx of cheap imports from Asia.

    Thousand of job have already been lost in the steel industry in Britain in the last year with thousands more at risk as the sector remains under pressure. Industry leaders have partly blamed the squeeze on the sector on China’s dumping of cheap steel in Europe as it struggles to find buyers for its products domestically.

    The EU has agreed to impose import duties of between 13.2% and 22.6% on Chinese hot-rolled steel, which is used in pipelines and gas containers, and 65.1% and 73.7% on heavy plates, which are used in civil engineering projects.
    https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-import-duties-chinese-steel-port-talbot-tata
     
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  36. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    Oil prices are getting hit because unemployed people don't drive cars or buy new toys shipped across the ocean, but oil produces still have to sell at any price because they need money to pay welfare.

    It's like when they blamed the high oil prices leading up to the great recession on speculators. Why did the price drop? Massive demand destruction.
     
  37. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Import Prices m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    –Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    –Federal Budget Balance is out at PM EST. This is major.
     
  39. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Building Permits at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    –Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Housing Starts is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Nat Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.
     
  40. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Housing starts down 2.6%

    Jobless up 5K to 239,000
     

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