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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  2. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  3. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  4. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    we will see if the PTB comes ridin' in again to prevent the inevitable,

    it is but a question of when rather than 'if'
     
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  5. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Forget riding the NEVER ENDING storm out... A storm that never ends. A mans gotta learn to be a "Rider OF THE Storm"!

     
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  6. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    back from when the guys could actually read and write............
     
  7. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Janet may have moved her fed funds target to 1 and signaled higher rates going forward, but bond traders have moved the yield on the 10yr nearer the YTD low than the high.
     
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  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Goods Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Prelim Wholesale Inventories is out at 8:30 PM. This is major.

    – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.

    – CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks at 1 PM EST. This is major.
     
  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Final GDP q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Final GDP Price Index q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks at 11 AM EST. This is major.
     
  11. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Ode to Gringo Khan





    Hey There!



    I am Gringo Khan



    Pinned up my hair



    To cross the Rio-Grande



    Destiny is the USA



    To continue my conquests



    I had to speak eh?



    To get a northern silver chest



    Fell in love with a Viking



    Thought she was the one



    Didn’t realize she was a laundry queen



    Now I have none



    With my silver gone



    All hope was lost



    I need a song



    For the trip costs



    Back home to Mexico



    For the last time



    Leaving behind Americo



    To find a silver mine



    I am Gringo Khan



    Pinned up my hair



    To cross the Rio-Grande



    …………………………………
     
    FoundingFathers and andial like this.
  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Fake News, Fake Reporter, Fake Silver Mine, Fake Conquest, Fake Hair, Fake Trip & finally the Fake Wife too, everyone knows that Gringo is gay the happy way & aint messin it up with no high cost high maintenance woman!

    Now if the ode was crossing the Rio-Grande for Mexican gold, specifically "Acapulco Gold" I may be inclined to believe it!
     
  13. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    At 0.13 on the OTC I'm somewhat tempted to open an account and buy 100 blocks. Being an idiot with no trading experience makes me shiver at the thought.


    4 Reasons Why Copper Prices Are About To Spike
    Published: March 27, 2017
    Share | Print This





    Source: SPONSORED POST BY JAMES BURGESS OF OILPRICE
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Backing-A-Copper-Boom-In-2017.html

    http://www.blacklistednews.com/4_Reasons_Why_Copper_Prices_Are_About_To_Spike/57557/0/38/38/Y/M.html


    [​IMG]
    2017 is shaping up to be a game-changing year for copper, with Trump’s $500-billion infrastructure plan, booming Chinese demand and the recent interest rate hike from the Fed, copper prices are soaring. And for this little known small-cap miner on the verge of discovering the world’s largest deposit, the timing could not be better

    The place to be for copper’s 2017 bull run is Chile, where Arena Minerals Inc. (TSX:AN.V; OTC:AMRZF) has gained access to one of the largest copper land packages in one of the world’s hottest copper regions ever…and they’ve got the cash, experience, and local team base to do it.

    Not only has Arena managed to get its hands on a massive property that was a highly sought-after piece of copper territory by many major miners in the world. There’s a sudden new urgency to boost mining—from copper and gold to lithium —and the venue is fast become a foreign miner’s best friend.

    In the meantime, while major miners like BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Glencore and Anglo American lost nearly $20 billion in core earnings as commodities plunged in 2014 and 2015, 2016 saw a turnaround, and 2017 is all about the bull—here’s why:

    • China copper demand is again on a boom swing. It happened in 2004/2005, when Shanghai inventories rose above the London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories, which is the world’s standard. A massive bull market ensued—and the same thing is happening again, right now:

    [​IMG]

    (Click to enlarge)

    • Trump’s $500-billion infrastructure plan has already driven copper prices up, and coupled with Chinese demand, this has real staying power.

    • Continued workers’ strikes at major copper mines are further boosting prices.

    • The Fed raised key interest rates after a two-day policy meeting last week, and this has weighed on the dollar and benefitted copper prices, making it one of the best stocks to add to an investor portfolio right now.

    • We’re going to be short on supply, and the shortage is expected to become evident in the first half of this year, where we could see a repeat of the ‘China boom’ of 2005—or even better. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish stance on the red metal and warns of a serious supply risk which could possibly lead to an aggressive price spike.

    The reality, we don’t have another mega-project in the works, and the major deposits have already been found. This means that Arena is sitting on what appears to be the only mega-copper venue that hasn’t been explored and exploited. It’s an unheard-of achievement for a small-cap miner.

    Here are 5 reasons to keep an eye on Arena Minerals (TSX:AN.V; OTC:AMRZF), one of the most unique small-cap miners in the world today:

    #1 This is the Copper Jackpot

    The Atacama Copper is the project to end all projects in Chile’s copper heartland and covers approximately 73,000 hectares in the heart of the Antofagasta mining district.

    Arena’s flagship project is an original 2,930-square-kilometer exploration venue, only 50 kilometers from Antofagasta—a highly active, mining friendly area that is inundated with world class operating mines and brilliant infrastructure.

    It’s also home base of Antofagasta Plc—a wildly profitable copper miner owned by Chile’s wealthiest family.

    [​IMG]

    (Click to enlarge)

    Atacama is packed full of major players because it has a very distinct exploration advantage.

    Only a short distance in almost any direction is another of the world’s biggest copper mines, including BHP Billiton’s (NYSE:BHP) Escondida copper porphyry deposit, the largest open-pit copper mine in the world. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) has a 30% interest in Escondida as well.

    [​IMG]

    (Click to enlarge)

    Atacama isn’t hot just for copper—it’s a mining bonanza for everything from gold and silver to lithium as well. U.S. firm Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ABL) acquired Rockwood Holdings here, and Chilean producer Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) is all over Atacama.

    It’s here that Arena is drilling towards what could end up being the biggest copper porphyry discovery in the world. And it’s getting closer and closer to the jackpot.

    [​IMG]

    Arena started out here with a whopping 300,000 hectares and started zeroing in on areas of interest. And the probability of finding copper porphyry is higher because this is a geological wonderland for metals, and particularly for copper.

    Chile’s elongated western margin is bounded by an earthquake-inducing, mountain-building and ore deposit-forming subduction zone, all ‘pushing up’ the metals belt.

    To the south of Atacama, we have the giant Escondida, and to the north, Collahuasi. In between we’ve got El Indio, Los Pelambres, and El Teniente--all bursting at the seams with copper prospects.

    This is the elephant hunt of the decade, and early indications are that the edge of a porphyry system has already been hit by one of Arena’s partners on the ground, JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation). As they work towards the bullseye here, these are billion-plus-type projects, and a major small-dunk for a company of Arena’s size.

    #2 A Small-Cap Makes a Big-Cap Play

    No one but Arena (TSX:AN.V; OTC:AMRZF) --not even the biggest players--could gain access to this major play. And many have tried.

    The advantages are piling up for Arena, which is proving to be one of the smartest small-caps ever to have landed a play in the big leagues.

    But this is where visionary management and strategic partnerships come into play—and this is exactly where Arena excels.

    Arena secured option agreements carving up the property with Teck (NYSE:TECK) and JOGMEC. What does that do for Arena? It gives it a big-cap play and all of its costs are covered—and more. It even gives Arena covered payments and work commitments.

    More specifically, Arena’s JV deals significantly reduce Arena’s ongoing commitments, and makes for an investor dream:

    • Arena retains material interest without incurring further costs
    • It minimizes dilution to shareholders
    • It means a major increase in spending with more aggressive timelines—straight to the bullseye
    • It means more and faster drilling

    The No.1 Mining Stock For 2017

    A little known miner has gained access to the world’s most valuable copper land package which could soon turn this company into the next big thing for investors.

    Click here to find out more
    Smart JV agreements like this are hard to come by, and this is what makes Arena exceptional, because this is a tough market to play for drilling speculation. Not only will Arena have the money, it will spend to get to the big copper discovery of the decade. They’ve put the brakes on dilution, and the end result will be the drilling of over 241 holes.

    So, we’re looking at large projects in prime copper territory owned by a $10-million market cap company with a solid revenue stream. It doesn’t get much more exciting than this.

    #3 Visionaries with Unmitigated Determination

    So, we know that Arena managed to hold on to one of the most brilliant copper exploration plays in the world but how did they get it in the first place? You can’t get in on the Atacama without knowing the right people, and without commanding a great deal of respect.

    This is president and CEO William Randall and executive vice-chairman Dan Bruno, both born and raised in Latin America, and both with extensive mining and capital raising experience. They put Arena together to take advantage of their existing relationships in Chile, and in particular with Chile’s giant SQM.

    But it gets even better from here: Another board member is Paul Matysek--one of the most energetic driving forces on the small-cap mining scene today. He’s created shareholder value of well over $2 billion in gold, lithium, potash and uranium, and now he’s breaking out with copper.

    Then we have Chairman of the board Mark Eaton, a well-known head of sales for CIBC in Toronto whose last success was Belo Sun Mining Corp. (TSX:BSX) in Brazil, which got close to a billion dollars and is now gearing up to come into production in Brazil with about 7 million ounces.

    Next to the stellar track record of its management, the company is backed by mining visionary and successful entrepreneur Ross Beaty – current executive chairman of Alterra Power Corp. and chairman of Pan American Silver Corp.

    Along with an impressive line-up of experts, they have pulled off the spectacular in Chile. The
    relationship with SQM bears special attention. Everyone has been gunning for a crack at this play for three decades, but it’s owner, SQM, wasn’t biting. SQM was a government-run entity that was privatized, and it controls some 4 million hectares of land in Chile. Because of its focus on lithium, potash, iodine and nitrate, there are huge parcels of land in the prime copper and gold districts that were left untouched.

    A few years ago, SQM came under pressure to divest, and Arena got first dibs on this unexploited heartland.

    #4 Permits in Place, Cashed-Up and Ready to Drill

    Right now there’s a major catalyst, which makes for the perfect time for Arena (TSX:AN.V; OTC:AMRZF) to ping on investor radar. They’ve kept quiet about their massive project for a year, while they went through the permitting process. Now that they just revealed the news it’s full speed ahead. Arena was granted environmental and drilling permits 10 days ago, and they’ve already moved one drill on the property, with the second scheduled for next week.

    So, the time for savvy investors to move is now.

    Arena is permitted for 241 drill holes, each one about 150 meters. And it’s scheduled to go down at breakneck speed, with the first 15,000 meters slated for completion by the end of April.

    After that, there will be a month or two drill break, and then it all starts again, with results coming in between mid-April and mid-June. You’ll want to be positioned well ahead of this.

    #5 Positive Cash Burn

    In 2016 the company received more cash from JV partners than its overall burn, which isn’t only unique, it’s largely unheard of in the exploration game right now.

    There hasn’t been a better time in recent history for a new copper discovery. Even better...

    All of the catalysts there are positive for copper prices—from the potential for higher demand in the U.S. under a new administration and stronger demand from China, to increased supply disruptions that are causing a rally right now and show no sign of abating and a lack of new copper projects coming online.

    The most impressive thing on the copper scene right now is Chile’s unexploited copper deposits, and by far the most impressive move was Arena’s scooping up of big-cap territory that could lead us to the biggest discovery in the world.

    You can see the company's stock chart here: Arena Minerals

    By. James Burgess of Oilprice.com

    **IMPORTANT! BY READING OUR CONTENT YOU EXPLICITLY AGREE TO THE FOLLOWING. PLEASE READ CAREFULLY**

    DISCLAIMERS

    PAID ADVERTISEMENT. This communication is a paid advertisement and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Oilprice.com, Advanced Media Solutions Ltd, it’s owners, managers, employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) has been paid by a third party to disseminate this communication. This compensation is a major conflict with our ability to be unbiased, more specifically:

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  14. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    last day of the quarter and the month,

    metals sinking on renewed dollar strength. Dollar got as low as 97 and is now back over 100 and holding.

    after a lot of talk about oil moving into the low 40's, that has reversed and actually is now over 50 again.
     
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  15. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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  16. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Formerly BTU, currently BTUUQ, Peabody energy should emerge from BK Monday. The employees enjoyed a raise this week and will be issued some shares based on longevity of employment. Couldn't find any news on the IPO but there should be a new ticker very soon.
     
  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    A Trading Question I Often Ponder
    Friday, March 31, 2017

    by Azeez Mustapha of InstaForex.com


    [​IMG]

    Can you be too stupid to trade and the answer is obviously yes. If you are defeated by how your toaster works then trading is not for you, nor is anything else probably. However, my observation over the decades has been that despite what the industry would have you believe trading is not that hard. The cognitive skills one needs are quite limited, in fact the smarter you are the harder trading seems to be as there is a constant desire to tinker or set off on a quest for the Holy Grail. LB often says that you need to be smart enough to write a trading plan and dumb enough to follow it religiously and this seems about right.


    What does inevitably defeat people is their own psychology and inability to either adapt or let go of their most deeply held beliefs about trading and themselves. As an example I was in the background when LB had a conversation with a trader recently and this particular individual was so wedded to things they had heard on internet chat forums that they simply couldn’t let them go despite them being wrong. A major point of contention was their belief that you had to get the majority of your trades right or you just couldn’t make money. This is clearly incorrect and can be shown to be show quite quickly. The table below looks at the percentage of winning trades needed to be profitable based upon the average R multiple of each trade.


    Please visit this link to see the graphs that come with the article: http://tradinggame.com.au/a-question-i-often-ponder/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=7415e3b213-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-7415e3b213-43344013


    As you might expect the larger your average R the larger the effective buffer you have to insulate you from being incorrect and since being incorrect is the default state for traders this is a handy thing to know. This is of course a simulation and the real world is a little bit dirtier than this so I went back and looked one of my short term systems for the past four years. Surprisingly, for a short term system it trades quite infrequently. The results presented below are from the S&P/ASX200 which is one of the instruments in the portfolio I trade with this approach.


    If you were simply judging this system on the number of trades it got right then you would consider it to be a bit of a disappointment but each year it has been profitable. This profitability is based upon catching one or two big moves during the year and simply hanging on. This is what saved the system in 2015 when it made no money for the bulk of the year. This highlights the dichotomy that appears in trading – there are traders who trade for entertainment and part of this is having your ego massaged by thinking you are correct. And then there are those of us who trade simply for money. If I am to be charitable it is quite natural for people to think that you need to get the majority of trades correct in order to win since we are geared to accept reward as being commensurate with being right.


    All of the above is predicated on two things – they are average returns over time and it is this notion of the deep time needed in trading that causes people difficulty. You have to allow the system time to build momentum and for you to get used to its ebbs and flows. As I seem to repeat endlessly trading is not a lottery you don’t suddenly wake up one day and make $20 million. You grind away over time.


    Author: Chris Tate


    Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au


    Below are some useful quotes from trading experts:


    ‘”Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don’t have the balls to live in the real world.’ (Mary Shafer -NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA SR-71 Flying Qualities Lead Engineer)… I stumbled across this quote and thought it was the most perfect description of what is required for trading. If you don’t have the nerve to accept that trading is an imperfect, dirty and chaotic endeavor then it is not for you.” – Chris Tate


    “There are plenty of traders who make their money when a market is not going anywhere. Option sellers who straddle and strangle love markets that are going nowhere at all...” – Andy Jordan


    “Risk is the most relevant aspect of trading! Risk is the only thing you can control. You cannot control your profits.” – Topsteptrader


    “Self-mastery makes trading mastery and wealth mastery easy.” – Van Tharp

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1931929/ A Trading Question I Often Ponder.html
     
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  18. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Happy Birthday GIM2!
     
  19. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Anybody looking into Arena Minerals? I've been poking around during my commute but not finding much info.
     
  20. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Above $50 to Stay? The Energy Report 03/31/17
    Friday, March 31, 2017

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group


    [​IMG]

    Crude oil came in like a lamb, can it go out like a lion? Oil prices closed back above $50 a barrel, potentially negating the downside break down we saw in early March. The breakdown happened because of a shocking increase in oil supply and is coming back because action by the OPEC cartel may soon extend production cuts and put quotas on everyone. Could this make that so-called record inventory a distant memory?

    I say yes. Because if we look at supply in terms of daily demand coverage and the fact that the U.S. can export oil which it could not before, this gives the impression that supply is higher than it is. After refiners ramped up to a record pace as they emerge from seasonal maintenance and exports of oil and oil products start to ramp up, we should see supply start to fall at a pretty good clip from here on out. The U.S. should be on pace to export at least 800,000 barrels per day. This means the U.S. exceeds will be exporting more oil that OPEC members Libya, Qatar, Ecuador, and Gabon. The U.S. should be viewed as refiner to the world not just the United States as we exported a record 3 million barrels a day of refined product, ten times more than we did just a decade ago.

    OPEC may be raising the stakes, hinting that all members of the cartel not only agree to an extension of production cuts but also having all members agree to a quota. The Kuwaiti oil minister said not only is there consensus between OPEC and non-OPEC producers for an extension of their nearly 1.8 million bpd in oil output cuts through the rest of the year, but it is possible that OPEC members, without a quota, would agree to one. DTN and Bloomberg reported that, “OPEC members Iran and Libya now exempt from the current quota would join the new agreement that could mean deeper output cuts by OPEC than the current 1.2 million bpd. OPEC members will meet on May 25 to make their decision on whether to extend the cuts.

    Still we must respect the charts and one close above $50.00 a barrel might not solve all our problems. The market is still fixated on the U.S. oil rig count that we know will continue to rise. As I have explained before, the increase of shale can’t replace oil from the OPEC cuts and traditional projects but with the illusion of a historic supply glut, the trade may not wake up until it is too late. Another break below $50.00 may shake things up and cause some more expensive oil projects to get shelved.

    Oil and Gas reported that, “Five oil and gas companies have gone bankrupt in the first two months of this year, according to the most recent edition of Haynes and Boone’s Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor. Currently 119 E&P companies have entered bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015. The pace of bankruptcies seems to have slowed in recent months, as higher commodity prices give some relief. April and May 2016 have been the worst months for E&P companies, when a total of 28 companies entered bankruptcy. An average of 4.75 companies entered bankruptcy each month in 2015 and 2016, meaning that the five in January and February of 2017 is below average for such a period.”

    Natural gas has been on the attack. The EIA reported a withdraw of 43 bcf. Andrew Weissman of ECB Analytics said that the April natural gas contract soared 43¢/MMBtu during its tenure as the front-month contract, a performance that may be difficult to replicate this month. The market is balanced by a bearish near-term outlook with seasonally declining demand and bearish April forecasts. The more bullish medium to longer-term outlook is driven by strong core fundamentals and possible further upside from hot summer forecasts and potential delays to completion of the Rover pipeline. We remain bullish on our natural gas outlook for summer 2017 contracts, with another 40¢ (12.1%) of potential upside in our most likely scenario.

    Prosper like a lion! Tune to the Fox Business Network! Thanks for the overwhelming response to yesterday’s letter. The readers of the Energy Report are the best! Call for my daily trade levels at 888-264-5665 and email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1931951/Above $50 to Stay? The Energy Report 03/31/17.html
     
  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Final Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.

    – ISM Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – Construction Spending m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – ISM Manufacturing Prices at 10 AM. This is major.

    –FOMC Member Dudley Speaks at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 10 AM. This is major.

    – Total Vehicle Sales – All Day. This is major.

    –FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 3 PM. This is major.
     
  22. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Factory Orders m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks at 4:30 AM. This is major.
     
  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    E-Mini S&P 500: Disappointing data a drag on the market!
    Monday, April 03, 2017

    by DeWayne Reeves of CFRN


    [​IMG]

    Today’s Total Motor Vehicle Sales for March was 16.6 million annualized rate while the previous reading was 17.6 million annualized rate. Domestic Vehicle Sales was 13.3 million annualized rate while the previous reading was 14.0 million annualized rate. Expectations for vehicle sales was higher, thus disappointing the investors. Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure for March was $100 while the previous reading was $101. PMI Manufacturing Index for March was 53.3 while the previous reading was 54.2. The ISM Manufacturing Index for March was 57.2 while the previous reading was 57.7. Construction Spending for February was 0.8 % while the previous reading was -1.0 %. Residential construction accounted for single-family homes was increased by 1.2 % and multi-family housing was increased by 2.0 %. The market is in a bullish mode unless it penetrates $2319.75. The range today for the (June) E-Mini S&P 500 was $2363.25 to $2340.00 an inside to lower day with a double top at 2366.75. Tuesday’s range could be an inside to lower or inside day around $2362.50 to $2332.50.

    The FOMC minutes from the last meeting took the same hawkish view of monetary policy as appropriate “fairly soon”! As of March 31st, the Q1 2017 S&P 500 companies 17 that reported 13 that beat expectations 9 beat the sales expectations. The VIX was 12.38 up +0.08 % as it normally trades inversely with the stock indexes. US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard stated that interest rates could remain “exceptionally low” for some time as he has not seen any inflationary pressure. We will probably see the exhilaration from Trumps expansion words to disappointment perhaps if the plans do not come to fruition in a reasonable time.

    OPEC’s Secretary General said that the Iraqi government assured the cartel that they will uphold the oil supply cut. Traders view this as a probable 98 % that the country will comply. The Oil Minister of Qatar has been monitoring the supply and demand balance watching the OPEC cuts going forward into the third quarter of 2017. Russia has cut production by 124,000 barrels per day. Projections of increased inventories have pinned oil prices for the near-term. The Iraqi Prime Minister has stated that in order to close the public deficit gap that they need $60.00 per barrel from their oil. OPEC reported January production to be off by 890,000 bpd. President Trump has brought a new concern in the energy markets. If the US produces a great deal of oil, how can OPEC freezes work to increase prices? The President is supposed to allow the new pipeline to pump more oil. The latest monthly report shows OPEC forecasts for 2017 non-OPEC production up only +120,000 bpd under the 300,000 growth pace of the prior forecast. Iraqi oil exports may have fallen during the first half of January. Exports shipped may be 3.25 bpd while in December they were around 3.51 bpd. Kuwaiti officials announced that the production levels have been reduced to about 2.707 million barrels a day according to OPEC guidelines. There are projections of the US becoming an energy exporter, but details have not been released. Saudi Arabia is said to have cut production by more than 0.49 million barrels per day! Iran’s National Oil Company has been approved for a loan of one billion Euros from Vitol companies.

    US President Donald Trump has investors believing in his “make America great again” slogan. His fiscal stimulus ideas to expand the economy has increased the positive sentiment of traders. His spending ideas could increase potential inflation, but that would add to the banking sector. Also his impact on banking regulations may spur the lending institutions higher. The Fed had previously mentioned that they do not see a great improvement in the unemployment rate. They still forecast 4.5 % to 4.4 % next year while January’s was 4.8 %. Yellen considers the current monetary policy as moderately accommodative. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is in Office until January 2018 and vows to stay her term until whereby the new administration may make changes or appoint a new chair. The last Nonfarm Payrolls for February came in large at 235,000 new jobs created while the previous reading was 227,000 new jobs created. The Unemployment Rate was 4.7 % while the previous reading was at 4.8 %. The Private Payrolls was 227,000 while the previous reading was 237,000. The Average Hourly Earnings was 0.2 % while the previous reading was 0.1 %. The Average Workweek was 34.4 hours while the previous reading was 34.4 hours as well. The Participation Rate was 63.0 % while the previous reading was 62.9 %. This Friday, we look forward to the next employment report which may increase the volatility in the marketplace. It is Qing Ming Jie, a national holiday in China thus closing their financial markets today.

    http://insidefutures.com/article/19...Disappointing data a drag on the market!.html
     
  24. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Job growth reported at +263K

    Highest 3 mos growth in quite some time

    Construction up big again,

    etc.
     
  25. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Michael Hayden, former NSA Director, quoted by the Palm Beach Daily News:

    “The system that the world has relied on for self-governance for the last three-quarters of a century is pretty much at the end of its fiscal life,” Hayden said, referring to the post-World War II financial system... “We’re not just faced with fixing the problem of the current system. I’m telling you the current system is going under and cannot survive. It is a macro-tectonic issue here.”

    http://www.woodpilereport.com/index.htm
     
  26. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    large reversals in the suckers markets today

    oil reverses early 4 mos highs and closes lower,

    and now grab your buttocks:

    1.jpg
     
  27. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    So who wins with a new system?
     
  28. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I am with you pit,

    The way to win is to disregard that stuff and live your life.
     
  29. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    point of note,

    the sentiment ball has been turning red on the asian day, and by the time it moves to zero and the amerikas, it lightens up.

    not sure if that is related to the nkorea activity or?
     
  30. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    some disconnects this am that will eventually resolve,

    dollar up, stocks up, metals up, oils up

    something will give
     
  31. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    spreads this am on futures vs cash markets in metals,

    cash showing losses,

    futures showing gains
     
  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Challenger Job Cuts y/y is out at 7:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – FOMC Meeting Minutes is out at 2 PM EST. This is major.
     
  33. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    nothing ever changes, sounds of war push metals up
    oil on the move also


     
  34. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    sound the war drums, as bombs rain on Syria

    meet the new president, same as the prior


     
  35. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Possible Challenges To Traders Today
    – Average Hourly Earnings is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.

    – Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.

    – Final Wholesale Inventories is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.

    –FOMC Member Dudley Speaks at 12:15 PM EST. This is major.

    – Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST. This is major.
     
  36. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Is a Sustained Bull Coming to Crude Oil?
    Thursday, April 06, 2017

    by Gary Kamen of TrendsinFutures.com


    [​IMG]


    The current move up in crude that started on the bounce up off of 48.00 on March 28 has definitely developed strength of trend. What was a previous strong trend down that started on the break below 53.00 on March 8 is now a strong trending market up as seen on the daily chart for the May 2017 contract. We never saw a weak trend develop, just a strong trend down quickly become a strong trend down.

    While we still see talk of a glut here in the US as crude inventory continues to climb, globally we are hearing that crude inventories are leveling out. Numerous large trading firms are forecasting additional OPEC cutbacks the second half of 2017. And here in the US gasoline inventories have been dropping week after week and driving season officially will not start until the end of May. I believe for me that over the summer in the northern suburbs of Chicago we could see a gallon of gasoline once again over $3.00.

    Now looking at the chart below on March 2 you see a RED CST telling members at Trends in Futures to open their eyes to a shorting opportunity. I mentioned looking for the break below $53 which we saw on March 8 after a Doji candle on March 7. On March 29 a GREEN CST highlighted time to look for a long and here just above $50.00. Now just managing open trade equity. And yes technically market is in deep overbought condition which does not concern me with ADX over 37 and rising.

    [​IMG]

    So the question “Is a sustained bull coming to crude oil?” would need to be answered off of the weekly chart below. And if the bull does come, how long will it last? Another question to be answered off of the weekly chart below.

    On the weekly chart below you can see the two COT Reports. The top one id the older Legacy Report and the bottom the newer, more transparent, Disaggregated Report. What I show members at Trends in Futures is when big money bears or bulls are coming to the markets. And big money is in all markets today. The most important is to catch these as they begin. By doing this you can catch life changing trades. Look back to July 2014 on the weekly chart. Did you catch the move down below $100? You will notice that in the Disaggregated Report that in Crude Oil Swap Dealers and Producers are the sell side of the market, with Managed Money the buy side. Without this buying and selling taking place by big money the moves you see on the weekly chart would not be taking place. If you trade futures, Forex, ETFs, or Options and are not using this data correctly you are missing out on huge, profitable trades. To better understand how to use this information grab a copy of my free e-book“What Lies Beneath ALL Trends” .

    So I do believe a sustained move up is coming to crude oil. I will need to see big money buy in, which is not showing at this time. But that could change with this Friday’s report. And how long will the bull stay? The answer will be in seeing how big money moves week after week. And while I do not like making predictions, if solid bull buy in presents itself crude oil by years end will be trading between $60-$70 per barrel, and many sooner than years end.

    [​IMG]

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1935055/Is a Sustained Bull Coming to Crude Oil? .html
     
  37. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    one thing we said awhile ago was tramp would be good for metals,

    metals were higher than current on election evening, so at this point we are still working to regain those levels.

    they have developed a decent uptrend after a collapse post election, but still have a ways to go to prove this will be a sustained run

    2.png
     
  38. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Yeah, we can use our windfall in metals to buy a nice geiger counter...we're gonna need it!
     
  39. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Attn: Scorp

    RE: Shelflife of Tomahawks

    "Raytheon began producing the Block IV line of Tomahawks in 2004. These missiles have a projected "shelf life" of 30 years. But at the halfway mark in their lifespan, they must undergo recertification to ensure they'll still work as designed if they do eventually need to be used. For the oldest Block IV Tomahawks, that halfway mark arrives in 2019."

    https://www.fool.com/investing/gene...itary-just-doubled-its-purchases-of-toma.aspx

    $85 mm in missles, reortedly only 23 of 59 reached their targets.

     
    Scorpio likes this.
  40. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    exactly what you and I were speaking to,

    use 'em or lose 'em

    That is for the block IV's, what about earlier versions?
    then we would need to know which versions were used in this particular charade as tomohawks have been around prior to '04
     

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