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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Again bitcoin markets seem oblivious to alleged dollar strength and rising rates...ya know the excuses that are endlessly regurgitated to explain why metals are performing so poorly.

    [​IMG]

    Obviously paper gold and silver prices have to be brutally smashed for options expiry so that call option authors can steal from those foolish enough to play the bankster's games, but it seems kind of ridiculous with the bsr(bitcoin silver ratio) now pushing 103 and with a single bitcoin hurtling toward 150% of gold's spot price tag.
     
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  2. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  3. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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  4. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Scorp & I were talking about a short seller that was talking about leverage & deleveraging requiring about a decade each. Scorp noticed a possible 10 yr correlation between market corrections & crashes... i.e. 2007, 1997, 1987!

    If these trends are correlated to fiat cycles then we may anticipate or expect a high probability of a market correction this year (2017).

    The system has been deleveraging (deflation) since 2007, theoretically a crash this year would terminate the systemic delevering & deflation process returning it to re-leveraging (inflation) to the system for the next decade.

    From a cyclical theory the 1987 stock crash resulted in 10 yrs of delevering which was followed by 10 yrs of re-levering inflation greater than previous inflation beginning 1997 - 2007.

    Looking back at the historical charts we can begin to possibly observe the financial engineering.... around 1967 there began a 10 yr delevering, followed by a 1977 relevering that almost failed in 1979-80. Theoretically Fed Head Volker was forced to raise rates to 16.5+% creating the 30+ yr bond bubble to save the delever-releveraging cyclical process... When rates began approaching the zero bound the scheme imploded into a systemic deflationary collapse. Artificial rates had lost their ability to marginalize real market rates by political & monetary authorities.

    The last decade delevering of 2007-2017 as a coined name known as the "muddle thru" period.... IF ANY of this is correct, sometime in the very near future, relevering & inflation will swap places with deflation & delevering in the system... This very well could be the anticipated outcome that the bond, equities & real estate markets are signalling... if this be so, the bond market will slump while stawks & real estate soar to ever greater new highs.

    IMO this means that the anticipated 2017-2019 period correction will be ignited by a major bond market correction that will fuel both equities & real estate as investors flee bonds.

    The remaining ? that must be asked concerns commodities, currency & PM's if these events transpire. The CRB, commods & pm's suffered tremendously in a 30+ yr price slump as the bond bubble raged.... credit & currency continuously flowed into bonds, this was the 3 plus decade highly profitable smart riskless play... but its coming to its inevitable conclusion. I think commods & pm's will play new roles once relevering & inflation begin a bond slump....

    Caveat: I admit that its been over 3 yrs since any of my market calls or thoughts have been remotely spot on.... therefore the foregoing has a high probability of being purely error & fallicy... FWIW

    Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years

    “The real estate cycle is determined by the interest rate,” Harrison said. “Today’s record low rates are provoking an extra-ordinary increase in house prices very early in the current cycle.”

    "One of the key causes of the cycle is people getting priced out of the market."

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2000510-economists-explain-why-our-economy-crashes-every-18-years/
     
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  5. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Who shot the scheisse dollar? Down nearly 2% vs other crap fiat in just a couple days.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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    Since it is ALL controlled/manipulated by the banksters, all we can do is speculate based on past & perceived cycles.
    Did Trump screw up this cycle or is he helping it, do to his ties to the banksters ?? I have stopped trying to second guess them.
    Because I am seldom right. BUT, if your 10 year cycle is correct, according to this historic Silver chart, you may be onto something.

    Untitled - Copy.jpg
     
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  7. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    the genesis of that discussion with BB was a guy on CNBC, a known seller and player, that made big dough fading stuff in the 2007 game.

    he stated then it was clear to see that the 'leverage' in the system was beyond extreme, and that this led to 'systemic' risks.

    he also stated that currently, there are no such 'systemic' risks, only sector or single stock type risks. In that he can make dough as things are, but it isn't the same as it was then.

    so they queried him on this stance, when does he foresee a return to this over leveraged condition. He stated get back to him in about a decade as things such as that take a long time to ramp up and culminate.

    I took his logic and started tracking backwards while looking forward to what may be.

    Following recent history, as BB alluded to, can we expect a crash this fall, which will then usher in the 'leverage' up phase, leading to a new crash about a decade or so from now?

    Interesting to think about anyway
     
  8. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    dollar keeps dropping

    USD 97.94 -0.26
     
  9. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yep, and metals catch a bid on that weakness

    just waiting for stocks to finally price in the risk that is everywhere,

    there should be some type of decline, followed by a half hearted attempt to go higher in the summer and into the fall, then the hammer

    ??????
     
  10. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Didnt Trump state that the $ DXU needed to decline to produce & boost the real economies global competitiveness which would theoretically grow domestic jobs???

    The current political struggle in D.C. appears to be a battle thats becoming a war between the stewards of the financial & real economy. The MSN appears to be the mouthpiece for the financial interests... the $ is declining due to the political uncertainty thats been produced directly by the MSN. The ? is, is Trump playing them to create desired results???

    Dollar losses build as Trump crisis stokes fears for agenda

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/dollar-e...is-fuels-fears-agenda-025701723--finance.html
     
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  11. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Trumps asset base is composed of real things, real estates & manufacturing, etc... his biz & commercial interests are mucho different than those of the financial economy.... he understands that his underlying values are reliant upon "real" commercial activity & demand, not financial values derived from speculations, computer digits & IOU's! IOW he loves flotations of added debt & inflation to support his notional asset values. Debt & inflation are the major enemy of the bond bubble & markets that serve as the base of the financial pyramid.

    One things for sure, the Liberal Left is exposed as pawns & willing dupes of the globalist financialization scheme.... which is nothing more than stage magic perpetuating an illusion of reality!

    One may ponder that these events may be leading up to the termination of the delevering cycle... a cycle which has supported a floor on bond valuations. The Bond Market v. Trump???

    Hmmm....
     
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  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    The U.S. Federal government suspended issuing 30-year Treasury bonds for four years from February 18, 2002 to February 9, 2006.[6] As the U.S. government used budget surpluses to pay down Federal debt in the late 1990s,[7] the 10-year Treasury note began to replace the 30-year Treasury bond as the general, most-followed metric of the U.S. bond market. However, because of demand from pension funds and large, long-term institutional investors, along with a need to diversify the Treasury's liabilities—and also because the flatter yield curvemeant that the opportunity cost of selling long-dated debt had dropped—the 30-year Treasury bond was re-introduced in February 2006 and is now issued quarterly.[8]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security
     
  13. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Started the process under Klinton,

    U.S. kills 30-year bond

    [​IMG]
    October 31, 2001: 3:07 p.m. ET

    The Treasury says the long bond no longer meets its financing needs.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    NEW YORK (CNNmoney) - The U.S. government said Wednesday it no longer will issue 30-year Treasury bonds because they don't meet the government's cash needs and discontinuing them will save U.S. taxpayers money.

    "We do not need the 30-year bond to meet the government's current financing needs, nor those that we expect to face in coming years," Peter Fisher, the Treasury Department's� Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, said in prepared remarks.

    Fisher said the decision would cut borrowing costs, since the government currently pays a higher interest rate for long-term bonds than for short-term bonds.

    "They've been moving in this direction for a couple of years, reducing the size and frequency of 30-year auctions," said Bill Hornbarger, bond analyst at A.G. Edwards. "The big surprise is the timing, not the act itself. It happens in front of a couple of years where it looks like we'll be running deficits."

    http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/10/31/markets/longbond/
     
  14. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    that didn't take long, reintroduction:

    remembering too that there was a whole lot of knashing of teeth when they discontinued them.


    Treasury Reintroduces 30-Year Bond
    In August of 2005, Treasury announced the reintroduction of the 30-year bond. Treasury held its first auction of the bond in five years on February 9, 2006. The previous 30-year bond auction had taken place on August 9, 2001.

    The 30-year bond was reintroduced to diversify Treasury’s funding options and expand its investor base. The reintroduction of the bond also was to stabilize the average maturity of the public debt. Before the reintroduction of the 30-year bond, the 20-year TIPS was the longest dated marketable security issued by Treasury.

    The 30-year bond had long been a favorite of fixed income market participants seeking to match assets to future liabilities. The bond also had served as an important benchmark by which other long-dated securities were measured.

    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indi...es_invest_articles_30yearbondarticle_0106.htm
     
  15. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    here is the vxx, big bounce on big volume off those multi decade lows,

    1.png
     
  16. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  17. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I will vouch for your call,

    that was about 2 years ago or so when you posed that,
     
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  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    stocks slump big, no buy the dips boyz as of yet,

    should be some type of half hearted recovery later today, then Fri and Mon will tell the story

    in the meantime, metals not doing much as the dollar is flat and holding in the 97's for now after a rapid hard decline as of late

    1.png
     
  19. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    after 6 straight up days, silver taking a break,

    gold punched thru the 50 and 200 yesterday, and is being capped this am

    2.png

    3.png
     
  20. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Doesn't history repeat itself. The last time Iran fought a war with Iraq and mostly ended as a stalemate. Now that Iraq is no longer a threat, the Sauds will have to step up to the plate?

    Will the next war be between Iran and Saudi caliphate? Throw in Turkey in this contentious mess of redrawing ME maps
     
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  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    dollar down this am, yet metals are not reacting
     
  22. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Syria was home of the Seleucid Empire,

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seleucid_Empire

    Iran the Persian Empire,

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Empire

    Iraq the Akkan/Babylonian Empire,

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iraq

    Turkey the Ottoman Empire

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Empire

    All wanting to revive their ancient glorius past empire status! At this time the struggle for the new Caliph & caliphate is entrenched in Mohammeds failure to name a successor.... Two groups arose to seize Islam.... the Abisids & Ummyyads.

    Abbasids (Sunni)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbasid_Caliphate

    Umyyad (Shia)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umayyad_Caliphate

    https://prezi.com/m/nhqqrfqxoubv/abbasids-vs-umyyads/

    Today we know them as Shia & Sunni Muslims. The division of Islam was created when the Shia advocated that the Caliph of the Caliphate should be a hereditary descendent per stirpes (direct blood descendent) of Mohammed. The Sunnis advocated appointing the successor... The Shia are mostly the common people, while the Sunnis are the ruling economic ruling blood lines.

    The House of Saud is Sunni... Saddam was Sunni, and most of MENA post the collapse of the Ottomans (1917) after WWI when British cartographers adminstratively divided the region into countries, the Americans & Brits appointed favorable (to western elites) Sunni "puppet" administrators as Presidents, Dictators, Emirs, etc....

    A Saudi Sunni caliphate will unite MENA as a new but artificial western controlled & influenced universal empire... All of MENA & most importantly the controlling religion of Islam will become political, economic & religious subordinates & vassals of the House of Saud.

    Historically there have been numerous wars between the two competing factions prior to the Ottoman rule & the creation of nation states post WWI. From observing the western re-overthrows & occupations of Afghanistan, Iraq & Libya combined with the raging conflicts & destabilizations in Syria & Yemen & the ongoing military & economic threats to Iran the new Saudi Sunni caliphate becomes closer & closer with each passing day. Continued destabilization creates a highly diminished standard of living and will soon tender the majority Shia into capitulation & acceptance of a Saudi Sunni Caliphate...

    Thats my opinion & interpretation of the observation..... Once the Saudis are in control western rule of law will be blended with sharia law and the west will begin reexpanding economically with capital investment introducing & bringing new customs & practices to the region.... The western expansion is completely dependent upon the Sauds achieving absolute rulership of the region.

    JMO
     

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  23. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  24. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Impressive as that is, it pales in comparison to the performance of the #3 largest crypto in terms of market cap. Ethereum has gone from under $8 in January to over $121 today and is now over $11b in market cap.
     
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  25. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    I would find that interesting, where pretend coin is going to surpass $2K before Gold,

    That should raise some eyebrows as people begin to realize what is happening,

    Cannot transport gold, pay to store, etc

    Whereas you can walk into a airport with millions of pretend coin on your smart phone and no one is the wiser.

    So guess who would be involved in a major way playing the pretend coin? It certainly isn't the wage slaves.

    Next guess what the inevitable conclusion to this story will be?
     
  26. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Time will tell, but I know hundreds of wage slaves that will use cryptos all day long and won't touch gold & silver. Sucks for them because I think both are awesome for their intended purpose, but the youngins just don't see PMs as sexy.

    I think as banksters do try to co-opt bitcoin a lot of those in the space simply move to an alternative crypto currency.
     
  27. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Trump Hands Saudi Arabia Largest Arms Deal in History, Saudi King Awards Trump Medal

    The arms deal includes military sales to Saudi Arabia of $110 billion immediately and $350 billion total over the next decade, according to the White House official. The two countries also agreed to a joint vision statement, private-sector agreements and defense cooperation agreements.

    $350 billions! The new caliphate needs a military!

    https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/20/tru...eal-in-history-saudi-king-awards-trump-medal/
     
  28. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    1 Bitcoin equals
    2221.00 US Dollar
     
  29. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  30. Cigarlover

    Cigarlover Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    The masses have jumped into btc. I still wont touch it. Probably going to 10k but I still wont touch it. IMO BTC is one emp away from being worthless. :).
     
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  31. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Oil rises slightly as some investors buy in wake of OPEC—related plunge

    By Biman Mukherji
    Published: May 26, 2017 3:32 a.m. ET

    [​IMG]
    Reuters
    From the Vienna, Austria OPEC meeting, May 25, 2017.
    Oil prices were volatile on Friday, initially falling then recouping some ground, on the heels of a near 5% drop triggered by disappointment that OPEC didn’t take more aggressive measures to cut production.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday renewed an agreement with 10 other crude-oil producers to cap output through March 2018, but the production cuts won’t be deepened as some investors had expected.

    West Texas Intermediate for July delivery CLN7, +0.53% on the New York Mercantile Exchange recently traded 14 cents, or 0.3% higher, at $49.06 a barrel in the Globex electronic session. Brent crude LCON7, +0.58% , the global benchmark, was up 28 cents, or 0.5%, to $51.77 after earlier falling below $51 a barrel.

    Oil prices had risen sharply in the 2 1/2 weeks before the OPEC meeting, as an extension of the current production cuts became increasingly clear. In light of those gains, investors were “hoping for a little bit more” than what was announced Thursday, said OM Financial’s Stuart Ive. He now expects oil to trade in a narrow band for at least a couple of months.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...-buy-in-wake-of-opecrelated-plunge-2017-05-26
     
  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Build Me Up. The Energy Report 05/26/17
    Friday, May 26, 2017

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group


    [​IMG]

    Why do you build us up with oil cuts baby, just to let us down and mess us around. And then worst of all, you don’t extend production cuts when you say you will, but supply will fall still. Shale needs you to keep on drilling, we have known that from the start. So cut back more and get non-OPEC to take part?

    It is not nice to fool oil traders. OPEC and non-OPEC Russia paid the price for building up traders’ expectations of a longer extension of OPEC production cuts or even a deeper cut only to come back with a priced in 9-month extension of the current production cuts. As soon as the Saudi oil minister said that the safe bet was a ninth month extension of cuts, the market fell from a Bollinger Band high of $52.00 a barrel to a close of $48.90, down nearly 5% in a wild trading session.

    OPEC’s sin was not an extension of cuts but their communication. The early announcement by Saudi Arabia that cuts would be extended by nine months was somewhat priced in and declarations by both the Saudis and the Russians that they would do whatever it takes to get the market in balance, made the decision just to extend a bit underwhelming.

    Yet is the market’s reaction fair? Despite the market mantra that the current cuts are not working, the evidence is quite the opposite. U.S. inventories have fallen for eight weeks in a row and we should see that trend continue and the number of draws get larger. The Saudis now are saying they will reduce crude shipments to the U.S. which have fallen already by 1.0 million barrels a day from early March. U.S. refiners prefer heavy Saudi crude to shale oil as refiners are better equipped for heavy crude. The trend of falling U.S. crude supplies should accelerate because the increase in shale output will be offset from falling Saudi oil imports.

    Reuters agrees, writing that between, “April and May, U.S. crude draws averaged 3.4 million barrels every week, on track for the first decline for that period since 2008. U.S. refiners are churning crude at near-record levels. Refinery utilization was at the highest level seasonally in two years last week even ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, the de facto start of peak gasoline demand. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said on Thursday that the seven weeks of U.S. stock draws, along with a drop in floating storage, is “excellent news,” adding that exports to the United States were dropping measurably.” Reuters did warn that the primary offsetting factor is U.S. production, which sits now at 9.3 million barrels a day, 550,000 barrels higher than a year ago, according to EIA data.

    Yet that may be not enough to offset OPEC cuts. We also are going to see peak shale oil production, or at least a plateau, in the U.S.. While U.S. shale has done a fantastic job in lowering costs, the trajectory of shale production will start to level off. The high decline rate of shale rigs and costs that are already start to rise, may slow shale oil’s meteoric rise. I am not saying that shale is dead. It will grow, but not at the current rate.

    Anyway, the next OPEC meeting is November 30th so we will have to stay tuned but by then there may be pressure on the cartel to raise production.

    Natural gas fell after the Energy Information Administration, EIA, reported that working gas in storage was 2,444 bcf as of Friday, May 19, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 75 bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 371 bcf less than last year now and 241 bcf above the five-year average of 2,203 bcf. At 2,444 bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Still, production is just hanging above 70 bcf not enough to inspire confidence that we will be able to rebuild storage if we have a hot summer. Dry production fell to 70.9 from 71.0 last week and 71.8.

    This comes as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active 2017 hurricane season with as many as 5 to 7 hurricanes expected to form.

    Remember to say a prayer and honor those who gave all so we can live in freedom. God Bless them and their families and God Bless America.

    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1963037/Build Me Up. The Energy Report 05/26/17.html
     

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