1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
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  3. Week of 6/24/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1256.40 Silver $16.64 Oil $43.01 USD $96.94
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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    There was a brief beatdown of silver today around 7PM - 7:10 PM. It went from $16 (today's 5PM kitco close) to a low of $14.27 before bouncing back. It happened between 7pm - 7:10 PM EST, If you blinked, then you missed it. I thought my Kcast was not working right when I saw $14.82 spot but I checked the kitco site, I saw an intra-day low of $14.27 which I must have occurred after 7PM.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
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  2. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Fake Oil News? The Energy Report 07/06/17
    Thursday, July 06, 2017

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group

    [​IMG]

    Oil prices sold off almost 5% on what many people attributed to a story that some unnamed Russian oil company source said that Russia was against a production cut. Today those sources are still unknown, but really the sell-off in oil probably had more to do with the fact that Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asia as the kingdom was losing market share to Iraq and Iran that has been raising output and taking away business from the Saudis. Reuters News reported that OPEC exports increased last month. OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier and reports of rising production from Nigeria and Libya is giving the perception that the OPEC/non-OPEC accord is becoming strained and that might cause the whole production cut deal to fall apart.

    Yet while the market speculates on reports from unnamed Russian sources and conflicting data on OPEC exports, an earlier report showed that OPEC exports fell and it seems that many are looking at data with bearish blinders on. The reality is that we are seeing US oil supply still decline at record pace. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil supply plunged by 5.8 million barrels last week. That drop comes as the rise in US rig counts paused and we saw a drop in US oil production. Where the trend of falling US oil supply is most evident is in the NYMEX delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma where supplies fell again by a hefty 1.4 million barrels.

    The API also reported a large 5.7 million barrel drop in gasoline supply as gas went up on the rack ahead of what may have been a record breaking demand weekend for gasoline as prices hung around a 12 year low for the holiday. While the market did see a 400,000 barrel build in distillates, the overall bullish nature of the data does not fit the bearish oil narrative. That makes today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report very big to see if oil can regain the nearly 5% loss it suffered yesterday.

    Not only do we have to watch the total inventories but also the US oil production number. We saw a fall last week and many traders want to know if that was a fluke or is it a sign that US oil output has hit a short term peak. We know we are seeing an uptick in uncompleted wells and the wells that are being completed are seeing less production per well. Those are warning signs that the shale producers are struggling to deal with the ramifications of the recent oil price crash.

    The oil market also took note of Volvo’s announcement that they are planning to phase out gas only car production by 2019, and only produce electric or electric hybrid cars. The company also said that it would launch three new fully electric Volvo’s between 2019 and 2021. They also plan to make two high performance electrics under the Polestar brand that is expected to challenge Tesla. Yet the move by Volvo may not be as devastating to future gasoline demand as many think as we will see the internal combustion engine satisfy most of the growth for new vehicles in the developing world but is still a glimpse into a future where we will need less gasoline per car but we will still see a lot more cars being built.

    Lower temperature forecast and rising production forecasts sunk that natural gas. Fears of a storage squeeze has been cooled as the temperatures are not supposed to be as hot and dry in the US. Gas production is ahead of expectations.

    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1993905/Fake Oil News? The Energy Report 07/06/17.html
     
  3. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Oil Plunge Run. The Energy Report 07/07/17
    Friday, July 07, 2017

    by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group

    [​IMG]

    Rising yields and rising oil production is causing oil to plunge even as US oil stock piles drawdown at a record rate. The rebound in US oil production of 88,000 barrels a day according to the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) and was the key data factor that is causing the selloff. The market believes that the 100,000 barrel drop in US oil production was just a storm related fluke and that US oil production will continue to rise even as many producers at this price level will struggle financially.

    Forget about the 6.299 million barrels drop in crude supply and forget about the surge in gasoline demand because obviously the market is. Even another 1.33 million barrels drop in Cushing, Oklahoma supply is being ignored as bearish forces continue to control the market mindset. Perhaps concerns about the economy are also sinking in as rising bond yields seems to suggest that the easy money in the global market place may be drying up that may put a dent in oil demand going forward. That means that we must get ready for another round of shale bankruptcies as many producer hedges have already expired. While it is great for some to see lower prices, the shale oil producer may be a victim of their own success. While there is a lot of talk about how cheaply some producers can produce, the reality is that with the debt levels of many players and the falling yields per well and decline rate that may be put to the test.

    Today’s US monthly jobs report looms large. As the European Central Bank is seen as being more hawkish, the jump in global yields is becoming a problem not only for the oil price but also for the cash strapped US shale producer that will be depending on borrowed money. If you must borrow more money at higher rates for a product whose demand may slow due to higher rates, this will be a significant challenge. At some point, something has got to give.

    Yet there were some things in the EIA report that were supportive other than the headline numbers. US fuel demand surged by 3.62% in the last 4 weeks. Refinery runs were up 1.1 percent and crude imports use by 251,000 barrels per day. Yet the belief that no matter OPEC does, or even how prices fall apart on the shale producers, somehow it will not matter.

    Yet perhaps what was more important than the day to day fluctuations in the oil market was the speech that President Donald Trump made in Warsaw Poland as he promised that the US would be a reliable supplier of energy in the world. Mr. Trump said to an enthusiastic polish crowd that, “America is eager to expand our partnership with you. We welcome stronger ties of trade and commerce as you grow your economies. And we are committed to securing your access to alternate sources of energy, so Poland and its neighbors are never again held hostage to a single supplier of energy.” This was an obvious reference to Russia that has used its former monopoly on natural gas to threaten and browbeat its neighbors. The President said, “Let me be clear about one crucial point. The United States will never use energy to coerce your nations, and we cannot allow others to do so,” Trump said at a press conference flanked by European leaders. “You don’t want to have a monopoly or a monopolistic situation.” Finally a President that gets it on energy.
    Thanks,
    Phil Flynn
    Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

    http://insidefutures.com/article/1994453/Oil Plunge Run. The Energy Report 07/07/17.html
     
  4. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    looks like the dollar is hunting a bottom in here, or trying to base prior to its next move:

    1.png
     
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  5. luckabuck

    luckabuck Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    With the weak dollar, how come bullion is in the basement?
     
  6. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Major investors can't make money unless the market goes down. They sell high then drive the market down, buy low and wait until the next sell high opportunity. All this manipulation is courtesy of your deep state banker friends
     
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  7. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I would guestimate that $ denominated profit taking MAY explain the current $ weakness. $ outflows are back on the hunt for yield prolly in EM's before the Fed raises again and/or diminishes the liquidity thats being pumped into the system. Note the term "diminish", does not mean terminate.... Its the smart move, no conspiracy nonsense, just capital doing what capital does.
     
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  8. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  9. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  10. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  11. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Hey BB,

    How you and I were speaking to the usage of slave labor in NK, or the potential for it,

    It is already happening. Saw a article headline this weekend that spoke to how the chins are running massive amounts of product out of NK, destined for chinland and points unknown.
     
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  12. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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  13. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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  14. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    ...And right back down again.

    Not sure of the mechanism, but I'm guessing it goes something like Economy weaker, so fed won't raise rates, so dollar won't crump yet and the flood won't start soon, so there will be no short term metal moonshot. Therefore we consolidate for now.
     
  15. BackwardsEngineeer

    BackwardsEngineeer If I weren't a snowflake, I'd have no luck at all Silver Miner

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    Ok anybody have any thoughts on what the heck is going on with palladium? Day after day it slowly increases and starting to bite at platinums heals..... what am I missing here, someone knows something...
     
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  16. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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  17. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It might be doing the Rhodium trick. Wish I bought some when it dropped to 150
     
  18. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    @ Scorp.... reportedly there are 10k boomers retiring daily in the U.S..... Which essentially means they will be accessing, using & circulating their savings, retirement & pension funds.... IOW financial & monetary substitututes that have been "hoarded" are now entering the economy..... This could possibly explain current market conditions???
     
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  19. Uglytruth

    Uglytruth Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Insurance Co's keep money in market but will need to pull it out to pay claims....... tells me there is no reason for current market levels.
     
  20. Cigarlover

    Cigarlover Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    been awefully quiet in here. :(.
     
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  21. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  22. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Thought Keef killed this thread.
     
  23. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Note how stocks, bonds and bitcoin are all going down together,

    That is not a normal market, just as it was not normal for bonds and stocks to rise together in a rising int rate environment.
     
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  24. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    note number of public companies has collapsed to very old levels, while the bigs get bigger and bigger thru mergers/acquisitions.

    this is not a healthy thing. Not to mention, guess what drives politics, etc.?


    3.jpg
     
  25. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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