1. Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    • It is a waste (If the projections are true) when you think of the environmental impact not to mention this will drive up energy cost for all of us..
     
  2. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Gold's intrinsic value is the representation of human energy expended to acquire a stable non-oxidizing substance that can be passed down through the ages regardless of catastrophic failure. Does Bitcoin represent the same thing?
     
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  3. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Your exactly correct observering antiquity, but it all changed when technology advanced to machines operating on inanimate energy (steam, oil, electricity, etc.) 100% hu-man energy employed to harvest & mine AU & AG has been subsidized with machines & inanimate energy, hence the olde calcs of one hu-man hour equals "xxx" gold grams is no longer applicable.....
     
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  4. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    That didn't quite answer the question. When I went through training in the USAF, they actually taught us that machine output can/should be measured via man hours:machine hours. That ideology is as antiquated today as it was in 1988. If I remember correctly, the typical industrial tractor with a backhoe attachment had a ratio of 50:1. Take a giant walking dragline and try to figure those numbers, it quickly becomes an asinine exercise. When I was with Barrick, there were eight shovels, about 45 trucks and perhaps 20 pieces of support equipment along with a host of maintenance people and mill people. The microscopic pyrite encapsulated gold we were mining would have never seen the light of day without all of those processes.

    Barrick Goldstrike claims to have mined 1.1mm in '16. An educated guess puts total workers at 120 people per shift, 2 shifts per day, 365 days per year, 24 hours per day and is roughly and directly equal to half an ounce per manhour. I say directly because that does not account for ancillary input such as those who fed the miners, the iron ore and copper miners, the personnel at P&H and CAT, the drillers and refiners. Lots of human energy involved to get an ounce of gold.

    The question still stands. Is bitcoin as indestructible as gold?
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2017
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  5. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    "Barrick Goldstrike claims to have mined 1.1mm in '16. An educated guess puts total workers at 120 people per shift, 2 shifts per day, 365 days per year, 24 hours per day and is roughly and directly equal to half an ounce per manhour. "

    Half oz per man hour sounds really good.... I have no idea of how many oz's per man hour was mined 150+ years ago, but lets say for example it was half an oz for 40 man hours. The value of gold would in the general economy & general price index 150+ years ago would have been much greater then versus the industrialized half oz per man hour of now.

    As for BTC, I'm reminded of Adam Smith in his book "Wealth of Nations" where he said the function of capitalism is to take over the free market using cartel & monopoly practices to fully exploit the market system. Looks like BTC's energy usage presents a natural barrier to following the natural progression required to dominate a market or "the" market.

    BTC is suffering from the same fate that beset AU & AG.... An already scarce volume of Labor began chasing after AU & AG (mining) which created shortages of workers on farms & in factories. This was corrected when first "The" gold standard was bannished & later when the last vestages of the silver standard was put to bed.... No longer would labor be allowed to independently & directly chase after raw money thru its mining... IMO the same fate will befall BTC, et al etc....
     
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  6. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The function of capitalism is to take over the free market using cartel and monopoly practices to fully exploit the market system. Human labor is exploited to gain till there is no meaning for gainful employment.

    Capitalism flourishes when the participants can expect more and more profits. This also in its wake makes for developed society with division of labor, ( not my quote, HT). When the profits cannot be had by expansion of the idea, wars have to be waged to expand.

    When even wars are not profitable, crony capitalism has to be unleashed. That is bound to fail and one can expect everyone in the society to start gambling in the hope of getting something for nothing. That cannot last either and then probably the fall where all the skilled craftsmen have to search for livelihood.

    HT used to quote the three phases inflation, deflation and destruction of equity, bankruptcy reorganization.
     
  7. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I'm speechless.....

    1 Bitcoin equals
    11290.00 US Dollar
     
  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    it is what we thought BB,

    hot money + asia

    they say 60% of all transactions are in Yen

    the part many do not understand is that the same thing is happening in stocks, but no one will state it or believe it

    it is excess fiat chasing a limited number of options,

    No different than the chart showing number of listed companies falling off a cliff. Less options with greater dough chasing fewer options = higher stock prices.

    Now they are stating shitcoin is the new gold, store of value for the modern age.

    My only comment to that is, until it isn't

    shitcoin hasn't been welcomed into the extraction community, but it is coming. They are trying to tag a futures to it, multiple ETF's, etc. Then too, .govs and the IRS are still on the sidelines with it.

    Once it has to deal with all of those harassment's, then the story will change.
     
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  9. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    This is a couple months old, but here's Jamie Dimon bashing on bitcoin...while JPMorgan announces a blockchain based product.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/16/jpm...ockchain-even-as-he-calls-bitcoin-stupid.html

    The banksters may hate bitcoin/blockchain technology and what it represents, but they also know it's going to revolutionize numerous industries. A lot of clueless bitcoiners seem to think banksters joining the party is a good thing, that it gives it some measure of "legitimacy", but all it will do is give them a way to counterfeit it with their paper frauds. Eventually people will measure the value of a bitcoin based on some bankster created fraud rather than bitcoins changing hands.
     
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  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    you said it all there

    if they cannot exert control, they will delegitimize it in some manner or form

    not a question of if, but when
     
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  11. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    All my colleagues are invested in bit coin, lite coin and every day they are on coin base and checking on their investments. How many people can afford this circus. I feel bad for them because thay think it is going to hit half a million dollars. They think any nay Sayers is a crazy fool
     
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  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Coinbase ordered to give the IRS data on users trading more than $20,000

    Most digital currencies exist in a sort of twilight state just beyond the grasp of federal regulators, but the U.S. tax authority is starting to get savvy to this whole bitcoin thing.

    On Wednesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Coinbase must supply the IRS with identifying information on users who had more than $20,000 in annual transactions on its platform between 2013 and 2015. After noticing that the number of tax returns claiming gains from virtual currency didn't line up with the emerging popularity of digital currencies like bitcoin as an investment vehicle, the IRS asked Coinbase to hand over a broad swath of information on its users. Coinbase pushed back, and now the court has landed on a compromise that the company is calling a "partial victory."

    Continued:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-ordered-turn-over-data-235635616.html
     
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  13. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    You gotta give it to me! Give it to me!

     
  14. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    That's not it this thing, Bitcoin is being primed for 30-40k Turkey for next year thanksgiving. By next year the ETF paper will firmly be in control of all cryptocurrency.
    I will not be surprised if IRS asks for back taxes, penalty on the transaction from 2013-2015. By the way 20 k in bit coins in 2013 is a lot of dough.
    Remember Liberty dollar
     
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  15. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Dow futures up 220. Asia markets are flat.
     
  16. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Dollar down...metals down...paper fictions up...same old same old.
     
  17. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Jim Grant Interviews Alan Fournier: “Pension Funds Are So Desperate For Yield, They’re Systemically Selling Vol…”

    Snips:

    "Well the thing that concerns me the most about this sort of overall technical setup, if you will, is that the reason people own bonds is they don't correlate with stocks. So if something bad happens in the stock markets, bonds rally, right? So risk parity, some stocks in a levered bond fund, it's been fabulous because that's been what we've seen for the last 15 or 20 years. Well if we get a turn, which is just driven by a normal business cycle and that correlation comes apart, who knows what happens? But there's a lot of money that's been dedicated to these kinds of strategies, whether they're vol targeting, risk parity. We're in sort of a spooky time."

    "Well, we have a trading desk when we come in the morning if the futures are down-- like today they were down a bit this morning. But we joke about what time they're going to go positive during the day, and usually it's after the Europeans go to the pub or something at around 11 o'clock. By 2 o'clock they're positive."

    "JG: So when you sell vol, what do you do exactly? Do you sell puts on the VIX Index?

    AF: Yes, and different tenors. And there are strategies that will sell vol at a level and buy vol further down and try to dampen potential crash risk and those kinds of things. But essentially you're just collecting income by being a house, selling puts.

    "AF: Pension funds, large European pension funds. And he said, "Yeah, but they have a strategy where, when you get a selloff, they sell more into the selloff." So if the VIX spikes from 10 to 15, you sell more. And then you continue to have this tremendous monthly pattern of income.

    So as I was walking out of there I thought, my goodness, the central banks have succeeded in pushing people out on the risk curve. They're taking people that are managing the pensions of state pensioners and they have them in negative earning sovereign instruments. And now they have them-- they're so desperate for some yield, they're systemically selling volatility, which is remarkable."

    http://marketsanity.com/jim-grant-i...perate-yield-theyre-systemically-selling-vol/



     
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  18. FoundingFathers

    FoundingFathers Founder Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Selling puts on the VIX would actually be a synthetic way to buy Volatility not sell, but other than that pretty scary article.

    If I had to guess, the next meltdown in the markets will start with some blackswan event that causes the VIX to rocket and instead of selling, these idiots will be squeezed to buy VIX.
     
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  19. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    exactly, if you are buying puts on vol, you are actually betting lower volatility,

    whereas if you are selling puts, you are betting on higher volatility

    with a caveat though,
    you can wait until market spikes with vol, then sell out of money puts even if you are bearish,
    as then you are betting time decay and lesser volatility will make your position aok because you have already collected the premium. In that case, you are betting a moderate decline in volatility and not an all out collapse. A safe bet when volatility is so low now as it is. You are trying to collect the emotion and the panic and not necessarily the move.
     
  20. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    More and more complicated to invest. With algorithm for everything and computer generated probability of 3 standard deviation, volatility is high and people are wondering what happened to their divident producing stocks? More and more people are buying options and it's like zero down housing bubble all over again. I remember when President Bush Jr was touting all Americans to buy home and with 4-5 years later the housing bubble collapsed

    We have a new cheer leader, Mr Trump who is asking how is your 401 K doing. The party in Wall Street needs the 401k money. I now think that the stock market and Nasdaq are going to be manipulated higher till every Joe talks about day trading . Why not, the surgeon makes more money sitting I front of his computer rather than taking care of surgeries. And once every penny is invested there will be no more markets to gamble.

    Of course in the end the house wins it all and there will be no party for the ordinary shmuck like me.
     
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  21. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  22. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Gold is trying to break some supports,

    50 day is being broken this am, 200 day at 1233 is next on deck,

    Which would also set up a potential violation of the uptrend that had been going on since the lows

    It still remains within the channel established over the past few years

    1.png
     
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  23. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Just speculation

    When the banksters prick that coin bubble there will be much wailing and knashing of teeth and the PMs will be looking pretty good.
     
  24. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    You mean people still think bitcoin is a bubble? lol

    Anyway, bitcoin has pulled back a bit from its highs, yet you can still get 12 ounces of gold or 987 ounces of silver for a single bitcoin. If that ain't compelling...I dunno what to say.
     
  25. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  26. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Sorry, had to stop the video when he called it a ponzi and complained about how people buy bitcoin hoping it'll go up in value. Like wow...that's some kind of revelation. No doubt he's a serious investor that buys things hoping they'll immediately crater. lol

    ...anyway, I like this FOUR YEAR OLD video about how bitcoin is an obvious bubble that will pop any day now.

     
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