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Ramblings

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Feb 5, 2014.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    fyi, a log chitcoin chart

    19000 to under 7

    remember that chitcoin became the canary in the coal mine and preceded the massive stock declines

    bitcoin 2.5.18.png
     
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  2. Oldmansmith

    Oldmansmith Midas Member Midas Member

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    Interesting that bitcoin and pot stocks crashed before the general market. The pot stock I’ve been small time trading finished slightly up yesterday. Methinks the market opens lower today then finishes green, but what do I know?
     
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  3. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    Here we go again..............

    DOW futures = down 242 points

    S&P Futures = down 17 points

    Nasdaq futures = down 17.75 points
     
  4. Silver Art

    Silver Art Silver Art Bar collector Platinum Bling

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    I am going to go against the grain by saying that we close to the upside today on the stock market. The PPT will wake up from it beauty sleep and return to work to "rescue" this market from further big declines. The DOW stock futures have been trimming their losses but they have been anywhere between down 200 point to as much as down just over 1000 points. Either way, volatility will rule for the time being.
     
  5. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    SharpChartv05.png

    Major support in the 2500 area..... LOL
     
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  6. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Thanks for the charts , they're very helpful (Scorpio and BarnacleBob).

    BTC... People still haven't woken up to the fact that the price of the underlying token has absolutely nothing to do with the technology using the token. This makes the cryptos an exercise it the mania of crowds. (Although I do understand the point about limited supply and therefore if it's adopted in every corner of the globe.... and so on... But it's not adopted in every corner of the globe. And even then, what about the forks?)

    I called 20k as the top but I'm hesitant to call the bottom of this cycle, since the intrinsic value is only a few cents, if that. I don't think we reverse at 2500, but maybe at 25.
     
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  7. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    DJIA & Naz now green, SnP pushing for a positive close.... Its to early in the year for a major correction.... ! JMO
     
  8. Oldmansmith

    Oldmansmith Midas Member Midas Member

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    Good up day for stocks, but S & P closed just below resistance at 2700.....on the way down, it blew through this “support” like a hot knife through butter. Making no prediction, but would not be surprised at another red day tomorrow.
     
  9. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    May be a bull trap here. I wish it is not.
    Treasury auctions are held in February, may, August and November. I read an interesting post stating that the institutions were taking their profits from the stock markets and buying bonds at a higher yields.
    They are searching for yield and if they cannot, if the Feds dont auction, then that money is brought back into stock market at cheaper prices.
    No way for the individual investor to even have a chance.

    Re: Bitcoin
    The governments are purposefully vague like the IRS rules
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ystem-finance-ministry-official-idUSKBN1FP1DH
    We have to give full credit to the Japanese for bucking the trend
     
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  10. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    Oh no. The whole shitbox is collapsing and they are going to blame it on BITCOIN?!!?



    Is it too late to get in on those ShemitaCoins BR Andial is peddling???

    {ok, this is not investment advice. I have all my money invested in Tyson Chicken Wings}

    Seriously, it does look like that massive QE injection of the past decade may be wearing off?
    If so, this could be a rough hang-over.
     
  11. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Dow futures up 831. I'm riding this wave.
     
  12. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Nothing has changed, the trend remains in tact.... we go higher, 28,800 here we come.
     
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  13. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I think that volatility is going to be here and will be good for the day traders
     
  14. Pyramid

    Pyramid Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Volatility and volume is great for the exchanges, market makers and brokers who skim transaction fees and commissions off of every trade. For the rest of us, not so much.
     
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  15. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    It looks like BITCOIN is gonna take the rap for the complete implosion of Western Society.

    Ain't that a bitch, Bitcoin pumpers of GIM?
     
  16. andial

    andial Sir Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    One word “SteveWynncoin” enough said.
     
  17. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    These treasury auctions are likely to expose some problems. 1T per year deficits, increasing trade deficits and a 20T outstanding debt balance is not a good sign for the dollar or for the US economy.

    Regardless the ups and downs we've seen, the RMB vs. the US Dollar chart has been a one way move and appears to be speeding up.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  18. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    I disagree with this assessment on many, many levels.... First, in a debt backed by debt reserve inflationary credit system, debt is an asset that represents wealth, not a liability. The greater your debt, the wealthier you are! This is completely opposite from a system based upon substance and/or specie rather than a credit system. Even debt to income can become irrelevant to the issuer of the reserve currency when growing demand for its assets remain steady. Growth of demand for assets is maintained via the inflationary algorithm. .Gov & CB Inflation creates the demand that fuels the next expansion....

    The biggest problem for centrist economic & financial engineers is the Triffin Dillema, namely balancing economic & financial policies between domestic & international interests. Policy makers must juggle between domestic needs v reserve status demands.... which many times are in direct conflict with one another. For instance, as you mentioned bonds & interest rates are synonomous. Domestic policy may need an internal IR of 6% to contain inflation while internationally the reserve status needs a 3% rate. It is at this point that planners must decide whether to direct their policies internally or externally. It is also the reason the $ has two values relative to goods & services, one domestic the other external.

    We continue to read about the big bad wold China, China this RMB that... most of which is derived from misunderstandings and/or fake news. Based upon these concoctions of nonsense, the Nippon economy should have surpassed the U.S. Economy 20+ yrs. ago.... The Yen was once 360:1 to the $, today its trade weighted at almost par. What really happened when the Yen began rising against the $ was to create new demand for $ reserve assets, i.e. U.S.T.'s. Same thing is occurring today with the RMB as its trade values & volumes are expanding & growing.

    China is a long long way from dethroning the King $... they DO NOT even possess the institutions or infrastructure to manage a global world currency, etc... IMO the RMB isnt and wont be a threat to the $ for prolly half a century more or less, if ever!

    When Congress stops issuing new bonds that increase the debt, this action tends to create a global scarcity which increases the value of the reserve asset. When the value increases it also creates new demand. The U.S. Treasury has no problem selling bonds in this system. Secondly, U.S. GDP 2017 was about $20 tt, U.S. Treasury external debt is around $16 tt (plus $4 tt intra-.gov debt = $20 tt) which is a debt to GDP ratio of 80%. Thirdly, Japan has & has had a growing debt to GDP ratio of 245+%, they seem to be doing fine.... of course they are a wealthy Asian nation, which proves my initial statement that accumulated debt is actually wealth in a credit system .... !!!

    I could go on & on, but I digress.
     
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  19. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I don't want to clutter up Scorpio's thread, just to say I read and understand everything you posted, we issue the debt denominated in our own currency, I know the advantages.
    But I disagree with your timelines and want to mention how all of this sends more wealth to the top and sucks off the bottom. There are downsides to the game we're playing and Japan is not doing fine, their wealthy class are. We would need a different thread and pages for me to explain but I'm sure you understand things like "standard of living" and "purchasing power." China has moved over 300 million people up the ladder from a starting point much lower than the poorest of Americans, while at the same time our middle class has seen a decline in wealth in real terms. If you get a chance, you should travel to China - and check out the Shanghai Exchange while you're there, that might change some of your opinions.

    The wars and the increasing debts are going to have costs in blood and in prosperity (again, we can leave the details for another thread).
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  20. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    @ Scorp.... the BTC relief (suckers) rally we talked about is underway this morn....

    1 Bitcoin equals
    8099.99 US Dollar
     
  21. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    Now I understand Monday's little flash crash :D


    It was Jerome Powell's first day as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Monday, Feb. 5th.

    [​IMG]

    "OK J, we are going to dunk this thing several hundred points. Ready????"

    [​IMG] Fed Plunge Protection Team

    I wonder what he told his wife at the end of that day?:racoon:
     
  22. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    BBob
    Re, your above post, what is IR? Is it growth of GDP or is it inflation?

    Re Triffin dilemma
    If the US govt has to worry about the global economy at 6% growth, so that there is a constant demand for the usd reserve currency, can you blame the congress politicians to pass SHAFTA like deals?

    Just cannot wrap my mind to what you say in the final paragraph where accumulated debt is wealth. I guess you may be correct because everyone in the world would love to get their hands on unlimited debt
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  23. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    @madhu.... IR is "interest rate". What is a physical paper dollar? It is a debt, actually it is "evidence" of perpetual debt. People chase it, work for, commit crimes for, even make wars over it.... Is a dollar an asset when its in your hand? Yes, indeed it is... that asset is also considered wealth. Debt is therefore considered a proxy for wealth. This example is presented on an individual level, its not much different on the international trade level between the sovereign countries.
     
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  24. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    another way to look at this:

    you put fiat in a bank, it is a 'asset' for you and a 'liability' for the bank,

    you borrow fiat from a bank, the electronic digits are provided on your behalf to someone else by the bank and you are now the proud owner of a liability, whereas the bank has your nuts in a vise as they consider it an 'asset'. Mind you, not one real nickel changed hands, all electronic, yet the debt liability created is also an asset for another.

    You can't spend it, or even see it. It is all fantasy.

    Move to a bigger example. We import $300B in goods from the chins, and off the electronic digits go to the tune of $300B. They can't spend it or see it either. Just a data entry. If they try to cash it in, takes quite some time to move the paper as 'space' has to be available on that particular train leaving town. Otherwise, they have to sit on it.

    Point being, it doesn't even have to be a physical dollar, only a electronic creation. As Carl has stated, few real physical dollars exist vs the amount of imaginary dollars actually in existence.
     
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  25. keef

    keef Пальто Crude Platinum Bling

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    They just ended 10 years of QE. Can't restart it because of interest yield on bonds too low.

    In laymen's terms: MORE QE would mean OVERDOSE. NO QE means COLD TURKEY withdrawal.
    {We are just starting to feel the first detox pains}

    This is the moment some of us have been waiting for. For a long time. Now, can the FED pull any other monetary narcotics out of its' trick bag? Cold fuggin Turkey. For those who never experienced it, you're in for a real treat.

    If they don't 'inject' something, Janet Yellen just dumped the whole shit bag onto Jerome Powell's lap. Nice move. Like Captain Smith turning over the helm of the Titanic right before the last life boat pulls out.

    And Trump is our 'business' president, but didn't see this coming?

    What in the world can save us this time? Dropping $100 bills from helicopters is about all I can see.



    I do believe this may be the moment this forum
    was originated for. Could get real interesting this year...​
     
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  26. Uglytruth

    Uglytruth Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    = hyper inflation...... All these supposed wage gains will be consumed many times over.
     
  27. madhu

    madhu Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Wealth creation or self destruction, the anatomy of the Xiv

    https://steadyoptions.com/articles/the-astonishing-story-behind-xiv-collapse-r328/

    Not only credit Suisse lost 5 million shares multiplied by the value of the Xiv. I hope they collected enough premium to sell those papers. 2 million papers were successfully sold to their big Wall Street firms. cannot understand what that contango means?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/x...rs-of-work-and-other-peoples-money-2018-02-06

    And one commenter suggests that it would have been a billion dollar loss if CS chose to continue that ETN, well they as the underwriter pulled a fast one. Again someone is always there to sell you hope and take your money.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  28. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    What is a bond but evidence of debt... an asset to the holder but a liability to the issuer. If I have issued $20 tt in bonds
    "A lot of trolling, misinformation, speculation and ignorance on this subject. After much research, I finally figured out what happened that caused the dislocation in XIV trading on 2/5/18 and 2/6/18 and stuck investors with >$1B (that's a B) in losses. It boils down to Credit Suisse panicking in the after-hours market on 2/5/18. They bought enormous quantities of VIX futures which effectively unwound their short positions on VIX futures markets which was the basis for the XIV in the first place. Since XIV was structured as an ETN (only backed by the full faith and credit of the sponsor, Credit Suisse, and not the underlying futures contracts) they were afraid that continuing losses in the underlying securities could result in losses for CS even though XIV shares were trading at fair and orderly prices during normal trading hours on 2/5/18. Panicked buying of VIX by CS in the shallower after-hours futures market actually caused VIX to rise and was equivalent to unwinding all the short positions that underlie XIV shares at a big loss, which effectively torpedoed XIV permanently. CS avoided losses at the company at the expense of shareholders in XIV. Hopefully that injustice gets rectified in the courtroom, although I never expect more than 20 cents on the dollar for these type things after the lawyers get a cut. Credit Suisse I'm sure consulted their lawyers during this process and figured that they would be better off cutting their potential losses (since short positions can theoretically have infinite losses) by sticking their shareholders with a defined loss and then taking their chances in court." -- James Givens

    Another fine example of corrupt institutions sticking it to the investors via shifting the burden & not honoring their obligations....
     
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  29. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Pete Stark explains it pretty well here. For a nation, it's a measure of wealth. For you, it's just a measure of indebtedness.






    As for the ability to assume unlimited debt, what do you think it is that attracts the scum we mostly see gravitating towards DC and the halls of government? A punch bowl so big, we have trouble seeing who has their fingers in it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
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  30. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Love the vid.... thanx for sharing. Scorp & I were talking about this concept tonight, namely how most people cannot conceive debt as wealth. The interviewer in the video certainly could not & would not even try to conceive the errors he had/has concerning national debt. I dont usually talk about it because I dont have the time to teach it, as the subject is rather lengthy to fully understand how it works. Secondly a good understanding of double-entry accounting is a great aide to understanding the system of debt as wealth.
     
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  31. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The debt is wealth until you have to pay it back. Once you pay it back it's no longer a debt. As the saying goes ...
    "If you owe the bank a thousand dollars, you've got a problem. If you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank's got a problem."

    When I was in my early teens, I asked a mentor about debt. I mentioned debt being a bad idea and the cost of paying the interest and the need to have to owe things to somebody sometime into the future. The mentor told me, "what's so wrong with debt, I want as much debt as I can get, I want to die 20 million dollars in debt." I instantly figured it out then.




    At every turn, on every corner, in every aspect of life.
     
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  32. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    here is a question of the day:

    it is stated that global equity markets losses have now totaled $5.2 Trillion.

    did the fiat disappear?
    did the fiat ever exist?

    if it did exist, and still exists ie just changed hands, then what or who gained by $5.2T?
     
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  33. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    rising interest rates,

    this is the 30 yr or long bond:

    1.png
     
  34. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Someone created pieces of paper and called them stocks and sold them at a price and collected fiat money for them.
    The total of all those people who sold recently, bringing the stocks down in price have collected fiat money for the sale and adding those all up you get to those big numbers, 5 trillion in price changes due to many trillions in sales.

    Fiat money has value because people believe it has value. All assets can be traded one for another because you can use fiat money or some other medium of exchange to connect them. So stocks and everything in the universe, if it has a human owner, can be seen like a commodity and these commodities have relative "prices" placed on them by you and me (the marketplace).
     
  35. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The FED may need to announce another bond buying program or some other similar scheme, it appears that 3% and above is the danger zone.
     
  36. BarnacleBob

    BarnacleBob GIM Founding Member & Mod. Founding Member Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    "A stock market correction is natural. In fact, corrections are a natural and healthy part of the economic business cycle and by extension the market cycle. Since World War II, the markets have had 76 pullbacks of 5 to 10 percent, 26 pullbacks of 10 to 20 percent, eight pullbacks of 20 to 40 percent and three pullbacks greater than 40 percent, according to Ned Davis Research, says Brad Bernstein, senior vice president of UBS Wealth Management in Philadelphia. Over the long term, this averages out to about one correction every year."

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/.../2018-02-05/what-is-a-stock-market-correction
     
  37. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Probably the only thing that can move metals in any direction that's not down. The GSR is back over 80 and the USDx has barely even ticked up. Silver must be the most hated commodity in the history of the world. lol
     
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  38. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Yea, it is a good vid.

    "The debt I am owed by others, is wealth for me." Try explaining it that way. It's only people who live in perpetual debt that have a hard time seeing it as wealth. Once they see debt as other people owing them money, they tend to come around. lol

    Jan was doing that on purpose in order to get the kind of interview he got. It's called a Socratic interview. Most of Jans "victims" never saw it coming. lol
    Here's a few more of Jan's vids you might enjoy.

    Harry Reid on voluntary taxation

    Nancy Pelosi's double standard on minimum wage

    Bernie Sanders' Character and view on Rights exposed





    In valuation.

    No. It was only a valuation. Same as an ounce of Ag you might have bought back 'o2. It went to $50 and back down to $16. What happened to the $34 more that it used to be worth? Nothing. It was just un-realized potential gains.

    It existed in someones pocket who didn't choose to buy at the higher valuation and bought something else instead.
     
  39. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    That's what your gov is planning on doing too. It's planning on eventually dying in debt.
    ....and no "one guy" is gonna change it. Not Trump, not RP, not anyone else. To change tracks now will require a wholesale shift in the will of the vast majority of People. Other than that, the course will be run to it's ultimate conclusion. Band aids, bailing wire and duck tape notwithstanding.
     
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  40. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    So it actually doesn't work like that when you're the creditor and there is an entity or several of them which are too big to fail.

    I don't want to go into an economics lecture, but please read the top portion of the post as it relates to the bottom portion.

    We won't lose our gov't , our gov't will just change. The owners will remain the same, but there will be "given reasons" provided and the means to make these changes. Changes from liberty to tyranny. We need honest money and honest systems as described and written into law , in our own original constitution. That would prevent the change. Otherwise you are left with stewardship alone, similar to relying on the king's word that he has "our own best interest in mind".
     
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