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Seems Armstrong is buying into the Shemitah cycle...

Discussion in 'Historic Market Crashes' started by 917601, Apr 12, 2014.



  1. Ebie

    Ebie Midas Member Midas Member

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    There is no manipulation, the way Ft. Knox still has the...

     
  2. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    As the Shemitah cycle culminates in September, and the meaning is to " let fall", I would not be surprised to see all financial holdings to be smashed, including PM's. Question is, which form of investment crashes the least? If the USD drops down to the 60's, world currencies are halved, the stock market plunges in half, and gold drops down to say 1000 or so, you will still be ahead.....in that scenario, there will not be much " money" left to buy gold.....and if this scenario does not occur, you still are ahead....exciting times.
    Ever play roulette? Some numbers types always win, most lose, BUT all have fun playing.....choose your numbers carefully,0,1,2,3,5,8,13,21.......and don't get drunk on the free drinks.
     

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  3. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    .......as Cahn mentions, Shemitah not only includes finances, it can extend to military defeats, terror attacks, famines, disease, weather...




    "Record-breaking cold could be on the way Thursday, Butler said. Low temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be -8 or -9, which would oust the current record-low of -7 set in 1936. Tomorrow's high temperature will hover around 2 degrees.

    The National Weather Service said a Wind Chill Advisory will be in effect from 6 p.m. Wednesday to noon on Thursday for the entire Chicago area. Wind chill values are expected to be between -15 and -30 degrees..."
     

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  4. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    This is a good blog for some background info on Armstrong. Looks like there aren't any current blog updates but some of the past ones are very good.


    http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com
     
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  5. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    I first became a watcher during his dark days in prison, what caught my attention years back:

    "A complete restructure that is a debt for equity swap. Debts will never be paid and Interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history."

    That said, then I was led to Cahn's first book, "the Shemitah"...then second...both uncovered a debt or absolution of debt "cycle", and both seem to be panning out. Nobody is correct 100 percent of the time, but combining the two cycles with current events ( and forecasted events) gives a nice map. Fact is, the world has never seen such a financial mess....so many different global financial problems from so many different global financial sectors....
     
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  6. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I didn't know it was possible to be in such a place. I'll let you know if I ever get there.....
     
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  7. Ebie

    Ebie Midas Member Midas Member

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    I suspect that gold at $650 would produce a physical/paper divergence.
     
  8. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Took a bit to crunch the article, but Armstrong mentions the unremembered great crash of 1873. The stock market crashed on Friday, Sep 19, 1873....

    "This set in motion a major collapse dubbed "Black Friday" that resulted in the stock exchange closing its doors for 10 days starting September 19th, 1873. By the end of 1873 in just three months, over 5,000 businesses failed in the United States. Tens of thousands came close to starvation....", the depression lasted two decades.

    It is interesting to note that Sunday, 21 Sep 1873 was the 29 Elul....this year 29 Elul also falls on Sunday, 13 Sep....just saying.......mere speculation.....
     
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  9. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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  10. optionT

    optionT New Member

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    Nice find!!!

    Apparently he penned that in prison as it says he was released from prison on September 2, 2011. He does say, "BY THE END OF 2015" though, lol.

    Just another huckster?
     
  11. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Not a huckster, he is not profiting from his model. Nobody's forecast is correct 100 percent of the time.......his forecasts are ringing true in other areas, cycle of war for example. ( he predicted Putin would invade Ukraine before Sochi). The point of the post is cycles, both Cahn and Armstrongs cycles have past events to support their forecasts, that is why I follow both of them. Most here do not believe in a " higher" supernatural creator ( or force), thus your disbelief. It is impossible for " the created" to understand " the Creator". Time will tell.
     
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  12. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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  13. Ebie

    Ebie Midas Member Midas Member

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  14. Kyler

    Kyler Seeker Seeker

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    For what its worth Armstrong stated clearly on his blog about his religious views,

    "That’s it. I do not get into religion because it really does not matter since that falls into a*BELIEF*mechanism that cannot be established. Man has been creating gods since ancient times because he does not want to be alone.*"
     
  15. GOLD DUCK

    GOLD DUCK Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    QWAK,Kyler,That works both ways --- GOD the creator of all things created people and all other beings out of the GOD ENERGY so that HE/IT would never be alone!:shine::36_3_13:

    the DUCK :s9:
     
  16. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    I will not debate Armstrong's beliefs, there is simply a big difference between " religion" and God. Most unbelievers can not grasp that, and never will. That said, he has used Bibliical events to support some of his modeling. Much like discovering a day has 12 hours dark, then light, a divine cycle. Intersting is his " cycle", he uses days, as does the Bible- not years, not months.....his count is 3142 ( Pi x 1000)....and when using " days since", you end up viewing this earth world in a whole new light.

    "And yet patterns exist, and we slowly discover them. Seasons, migrations, moons: the template is there. Consciously or unconsciously, most people accept certain components of cycle theory. We seek and see patterns in things. It is the way our minds work, presumably for the purpose of survival.

    Few would deny that there is a business cycle, a fluctuation in the economic fortunes of a nation, or even a political cycle, an ebb and flow between mass conservative and liberal sentiment that reverberates in the markets. And it’s common for us to think that some things are overdue—a change in the weather, a Masters championship, a comeuppance, or a lucky break. But most of us balk at the notion that any of these may be governed by some kind of deeper universal math.

    Armstrong, in his essay “Understanding the Real Economy,” said, “I have spent a lot of time trying to comprehend how such a model can even work on a specific level to a precise day, years and decades in advance. The only explanation is the subject matter is so intensely complex that there is indeed a hidden order within what would appear to be random chaos.”....The next day, Armstrong called from Fort Dix to clarify his basic philosophy: it was the big bang that created the energy waves, setting in motion the cycles that govern the universe.....

    An excellent bio on Armstrong ( and other cycle legends).

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

    ...and for the numbers guys, I find this extremely helpful.

    http://foenix.com/Since/How-many-days-since.html
     
  17. Kyler

    Kyler Seeker Seeker

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    The difference is not Religion and God, the difference is Religion and Faith: Faith only needs an individuals beliefs, be they based on fact or fiction, Religions need to constantly support their narrative beliefs and indoctrinate the group with them to survive, if the old narrative isn't working then its time to refine it to current events.

    A good way to do that is to say, write a book or something?

    Cycles are inherent in nature at every level, that is undeniable. Even breathing is essentially a cycle, cell division in your body is a cycle. And there is every indication that events in time are governed by cycles, there does not need to be any inherent magical divinity in this, in reality divinity can only be ascribed by man.

    We mock the ancients for attributing the rising and the setting of the sun to divinity, some day our descendents may very well mock people for ascribing longer term cycles to divinity as well.


    Personally I don't subscribe to a religion that a magical micro managing wizard created cycles as a sign to make sure you slaughter goats in his name OR ELSE!!! oh ya he does this cause he loves you. That is some tough love!
     
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  18. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    More people are talking about it now.


    [video=youtube_share;46vjrA0tHmA]http://youtu.be/46vjrA0tHmA[/video]
     
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  19. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Armstrong once claimed that a super computer was required to project all his cycles correctly... at the least a computer. That is after all what he claimed that the Feds where after --> his source code. So my question is... he was in jail, he had to produce hand constructed notes with the aid of a type writer. So how exactly did he upkeep the projection of his 'complex' cycle work? ... and if he had help from the outside, then why did the Feds (who where desperate for his stuff) leave them alone?

    Don't get me wrong, I respect the man's opinion. He has great knowledge and he makes infinite sense in many regards BUT something doesn't add up.
     
  20. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    I believe the day or reckoning is coming, just not sure on the timing. I believe cash will be the safe haven, at least initially, then will see if I should move that into something else. Although I'm not selling my current PM holdings.
     
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  21. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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  22. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    I hear you.
     

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  23. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Last edited: Feb 24, 2015
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  24. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Interesting, the exact half way point of this Shemitah cycle a solar eclipse occurs.....March 20....Adar 29. ....and the second solar eclipse occurs on the last day of this Shemitah, 13 Sep 2015. Keep in mind " The Black Sun" took place in past Shemitah years of 1931 ( the largest month long stock market crash) , and in 1987 ( the historical Black Monday, the greatest percentage crash)....do keep in mind this solar line up also occurred in 1959 with no event.
     

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  25. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Just coincidence?

    http://www.commodities-now.com/news...new-lbma-gold-price-to-launch-20th-march.html

    The LBMA is pleased to announce that the new LBMA Gold Price, which replaces the long established London Gold Fix, will be launched on 20 March, 2015.

    As previously announced ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) are the new administrators of the LBMA Gold Price. The intellectual property rights will be held by 'Precious Metals Prices Limited', a newly established subsidiary company of the LBMA. As the administrator of the LBMA Gold Price, IBA will operate a physically settled, electronic and tradeable auction process.

    The price formation will be in dollars and prices will continue to be set twice daily at 10:30 and 15:00 (London time) in three currencies: USD, EUR and GBP. Within the process, aggregated gold bids and offers will be updated in real-time with the imbalance calculated and the price updated every 30 seconds until the buy and sell orders are matched. Participants, as well as sponsored clients, will be able to manage their orders in the auction in real time via their desktops.

    Ruth Crowell, Chief Executive of the LBMA said today "Following the launches of the LBMA Silver Price and the LBMA Platinum and Palladium Prices in 2014, the launch of the new LBMA Gold Price on 20 March means that all four precious metal prices will be on electronic auction platforms, independently administered with increased participation and transparency. The LBMA owns the intellectual property rights to all four prices. This ownership unifies and coordinates all London precious metal prices under one single entity and ensures continuity of these important benchmarks."

    The LBMA Gold Price will continue to be available on the LBMA website as well from a variety of major data vendors. The current instrument codes and tickers will remain unchanged. Anyone interested in acquiring a Data Licence Agreement are advised to contact IBA."
     
  26. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hmmm...what's the worst that could happen??? : o

     
  27. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    The day ATM's run out of money...

    "Please remember this warning when you go to the ATM to get cash… and there is none!

    While we were thinking about what was really going on with today’s strange new money system, a startling thought occurred to us.

    Our financial system could take a surprising and catastrophic twist that almost nobody imagines, let alone anticipates.

    Do you remember when a lethal tsunami hit the beaches of Southeast Asia, killing thousands of people and causing billions of dollars of damage?

    Well, just before the 80-foot wall of water slammed into the coast an odd thing happened: The water disappeared.

    The tide went out farther than anyone had ever seen before. Local fishermen headed for high ground immediately. They knew what it meant. But the tourists went out onto the beach looking for shells!

    The same thing could happen to the money supply: Cash could evaporate suddenly and disastrously – just before we drown in it.

    Here’s how… and why:

    If you look at M2 money supply — which measures coins and notes in circulation as well as bank deposits and money market accounts — America’s money stock amounted to $11.7 trillion as of last month.

    But there was just $1.3 trillion of physical currency in circulation — about only half of which is in the US. (Nobody knows for sure.)

    What we use as money today is mostly credit. It exists as zeros and ones in electronic bank accounts. We never see it. Touch it. Feel it. Count it out. Or lose it behind seat cushions.

    Banks profit — handsomely — by creating this credit. And as long as banks have sufficient capital, they are happy to create as much credit as we are willing to pay for.

    After all, it costs the banks almost nothing to create new credit. That’s why we have so much of it.

    A monetary system like this has never before existed. And this one has existed only during a time when credit was undergoing an epic expansion.

    So our monetary system has never been thoroughly tested. How will it hold up in a deep or prolonged credit contraction? Can it survive an extended bear market in bonds or stocks? What would happen if consumer prices were out of control?

    Our current money system began in 1971. It survived consumer price inflation of almost 14% a year in 1980. But Paul Volcker was already on the job, raising interest rates to bring inflation under control.

    And it survived the “credit crunch” of 2008-09. Ben Bernanke dropped the price of credit to almost zero, by slashing short-term interest rates and buying trillions of dollars of government bonds.

    But the next crisis could be very different…

    Short-term interest rates are already close to zero in the US (and less than zero in Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden). And according to a recent study by McKinsey, the world’s total debt (at least as officially recorded) now stands at $200 trillion – up $57 trillion since 2007. That’s 286% of global GDP… and far in excess of what the real economy can support.

    At some point, a debt correction is inevitable. Debt expansions are always – always – followed by debt contractions. There is no other way. Debt cannot increase forever.

    And when it happens, ZIRP and QE will not be enough to reverse the process, because they are already running at open throttle.

    What then?

    The value of debt drops sharply and fast. Creditors look to their borrowers… traders look at their counterparties… bankers look at each other…

    …and suddenly, no one wants to part with a penny, for fear he may never see it again. Credit stops.

    It’s not just that no one wants to lend, no one wants to borrow either – except for desperate people with no choice, usually those who have no hope of paying their debts."
    http://dailyreckoning.com/day-atms-run/
     
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  28. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    I still can't picture physical dollars being worth more than digital dollars in a bank, unless all the banks start failing. In this scenario, I would think US treasuries would fair the same as physical dollars, because that will only go bad during a government default. That scenario would take down the physical dollar as well.
     
  29. platinumdude

    platinumdude Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    That guy is everywhere. Not that I believe it, but I'm watching.

     
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  30. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Researching more on the Shemitah….Sep 24,1938, Germany/England concludes meeting with Neville Chamberlain /Hitler about Czechoslovakia, talks break down,England, France, Germany,Russia mobilize,Hitler moves troops to the border, in a few days the Czechs start ceding land to Hitler, starting WW 2 -that was the first day of Shemitah,…... Sep 7 1945, Allies hold massive victory parade in Berlin-last day of Shemitah….7 years to the day,,,,1938 and 1945 Shemitah years…...
     
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  31. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Another good interview to get the greenhorns on board. Please do your self a favor and read the books. I find he does not talk much about other " disturbing" Harbinger events in his interviews, but covers them in the books. The section on drought and famine was very interesting,as was the military ( and foreign affairs) declines turning to blunders.....remember I mentioned King Jehu in past posts, it is becoming more clear Obama is going exactly in that direction.....the dots are connecting at a stunning pace if you know what to look for.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
  32. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    On Hagmann & Hagmann.

    [video=youtube_share;f9LupeKv_7E]http://youtu.be/f9LupeKv_7E[/video]
     
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  33. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    David Morgan is jumping in on the September/October 2015 time frame. Starting to think too many are expecting it around this time frame. Unless of course so many are expecting it that they cause it?

    [video=youtube_share;MNC3T6ZgjJY]http://youtu.be/MNC3T6ZgjJY[/video]
     
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  34. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    "What people don't realize is one of the missing keys of end-times prophecy is the Shemitah," says Cahn, author of The Harbinger, which has sold more than 2 million copies. "What's the end of end-times prophecy? The Tribulation. How long is the Tribulation period? Seven years. It's a cycle of Shemitahs that goes back to Daniel's 70 sevens, which is linked to the Shemitah and linked to the judgment of Israel and the 70 years of judgment. Every seventh year is a Shemitah, but every seventh Shemitah is a Super-Shemitah, which we call the Jubilee ... ."

    Despite these patterns, though, Cahn says God is in no way bound by the cycle.

    "Now nothing has to happen, but if it follows the course of most times when people predict things like this they're wrong, but if it follows the course here's what would happen. According to the pattern, each time it happens, there is war in the Middle East. No. 2, there is a major war focused on Israel—World War I and the 1967 Six-Day War. No. 3, that war results in an end-times restoration of the next step of end-times prophecy."

    In the book of Genesis, the Shemitah began with the Pharoah's prophetic dream of 14 cows—seven healthy and seven sick. God revealed to Joseph that the seven healthy cows represented seven years of prosperity, while the sick were the seven years of famine to follow.

    "God gives a warning to Egypt to tell them what is coming," Cahn says. "The turning point is that seventh cow."

    During his talk, Cahn pointed to a sign with biblical roots that went viral on newswires Sept. 25, 2014—the very day the world entered the current Shemitah: a cow with the number seven on its head.

    "The pattern of the Shemitah is ... it begins so undramatic you barely notice it," Cahn says.

    Here are the signs that Cahn revealed about the beginning of the Shemitah last year, on or around Sept. 25.....

    http://www.charismanews.com/world/48667-the-shemitah-unraveled-what-2015-2016-could-bring
     

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  35. GOLD DUCK

    GOLD DUCK Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    QWAK,917601,Nice looking cow:2: --- they got one on TV with no tits (cartoon) selling lactaid milk.:applause_smiley:

    You got any pictures of the perfect red heffer???

    I keep hearing that they think they have found it and then they find a flaw.:bawling:

    the DUCK :s11:
     
  36. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    Does anyone have a summary of Armstrong's long term outlook? I know he sees a sovereign bond debt crisis. I know he seems something starting that lines up with the Shemitah cycle. I also believe he sees war cycles and civil/political unrest also coming to a fruition in the coming years. I have been trying to follow some of his stuff, but have a hard time getting a grasp of what his big picture is. If I recall correctly, he says not to be in gold for now? What does he say one should be in?
     
  37. 917601

    917601 Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Stocks are still being pumped as well as the USD. Gold will have its time, but not just yet. Armstrong advocates jumping from one sector until it runs out, then jump into another.

    "Our Daily Bearish Reversals are at 1146 and 1141 followed by 1130. Resistance now stands at the 1208-1215 level.....While we see today may form a temp low if the settlement comes in over 1156, we are staring at rising volatility doing into next week.

    The general flavor among the average investors is that gold is dead and not worth even investing in. We need this sort of view to create the final low. It is still not ready for prime time."

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/
     
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  38. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    So in his writings, is he still advocating stocks? Or is he saying stay in cash?

    For 2015.75, is it the sovereign debt crisis (bonds) that sets the whole thing off for Armstrong? Or something else?
     
  39. optionT

    optionT New Member

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    MA predicted more than a year ago that the default of Europe would emerge from Austria and this will set off a cascading effect in Europe. By 2016 Europe will be a basket case, radically different.

    The US goes down 2016/2017, about 18 months after Europe collapses. Until then, expect a massive rally in the stock market as money overseas floods in, in search of safety. King dollar.

    From 2017, his models show war to spread wider.

    A major pandemic 2018-2019.
     
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  40. Ebie

    Ebie Midas Member Midas Member

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    How about King gold?

     

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