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Silver

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Strawboss, Apr 1, 2010.



  1. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    He's just waiting for someone[likely you] to say to send or receive.LOL I've been kinda/sorta chuckling about this bet for 24 hours cause there is variables in which price ticker to watch. You sir make the rules and I'll play by them for a maple but if it was for 1,000 of them I might want some input.
     
  2. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Understood. We could go by close on the daily. 2 consecutive closes below $19 on the daily. Sept or Oct dates posted above or what? You're choice.

    LOL, it IS just a worthless ounce of silver, right?
     
  3. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Let's go with the September date as I may be dead by October and I'd hate to die without knowing the outcome. Can you post a link to the daily that we are going with, please?
    It is kinda/sorta funny how one penny is worthless but load a semi up and everyone wants it.
     
  4. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    OK, so forget the 2 US trading sessions. We're going to go with 2 daily closes below $19.

    If you haven't ever used Netdania, it's a free streaming online charting program with most of the bells and whistles of paid-for charting programs. It doesn't do all stocks/ETF's - it does do primarily major/minor world indices, oil, currencies and, of course, spot precious metals. It's the probably the best free real-time (PM's anyway) program. Good to learn/play around with. No download required (just get past the adverstisement pop-up). You can fullscreen the small chart by clicking on the thumbtack icon in the upper-right hand side of the chart.

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/li...real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c#

    Here's a ferinstance on the daily from June low (you would have won this bet if the bet was by July 4th):

    candleclose2.jpg

    Magnified:

    candleclose3.jpg

    See, there are 4 daily candles in a row that closed BELOW $19 (the purple line) before July 4th.

    There are other websites to see daily candle closes like

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/silver-candlestick

    and

    http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

    etc, but Netdania's pretty good.

    If have another suggestion, I'm open.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2014
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  5. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    I just got my maples worth in information. Thanks a boat load for that. You'll still have to let me know who won.LOL I'm a farmer who is kinda/sorta interested in learning from you folk.
     
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  6. Silver Buck

    Silver Buck Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Charting Resources

    A couple of charting places I use:

    Commodity Charts (link) - for a quick, clean snapshot

    [​IMG]

    Trading View (link) for a more in depth look:

    [​IMG]

    Both sources have prices for commodities delayed a bit (10 minutes I believe) and both are free to use without even having to sign up.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2014
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  7. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    I continue to see silver as being in a long sideways pattern. The next big rally will be confirmed for me when silver closes higher than the 3 year downtrend line shown in the weekly chart below.

    SILVER 3 years.jpg


    The six month chart below is a close up of half of this sideways pattern. I am hopeful that I will have an opportunity to buy some silver in a few weeks near the Andrews pitchfork mid line as it approaches the $18.62 May low. A perfect buy setup for me would be for silver to spike down to approximately $18.50 to capture the stops resting below that $18.62 low, and then to reverse to close higher on that day. DYODD, and good luck to everyone!

    SILVER 6 months.jpg
     
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  8. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    Options expiration on Tuesday. Silver should be watched closely.
     
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  9. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Dollar up .25 tonight, cme lowered margins on PMs, I smell blood.
     
  10. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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  11. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    OK, pitw, sent you a message too, though the bet was pretty much cleared up last week.

    Clear as it can get for everyone to see.

    Bet is for one silver maple that no 2 consecutive daily closes below $19 by Sept 18th (including Sept 18th) will occur, which is the day after the Fed meeting. There shouldn't be discrepencies in one chart vs another so far as determing a daily close, but Netdania is my goto (which you or anyone can access).

    Never know, it could be today! All kinds of silver shenanigans going on this week.

    :cool:
     
  12. Ragnarok

    Ragnarok I'd rather be Midas Member

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    I can guess how this bet might turn out, black swans and rockets excepted of course ;D

    image.jpg

    R.
     
  13. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    What am I missing in your chart?

     
  14. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    Hint: Look at what happens in September.
    Now, what is the current date?
     
  15. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    This article offers another way to look at the gold seasonals data with the chart below.

    Gold Seasonals.jpg

    Until 2011, the seasonals provided good guidance to expect strong precious metals rallies from late summer through the following spring. For the past three years, however, those rallies were MIA. I view the seasonals effect with caution now, at least until the markets show they are back to "normal."
     
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  16. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Well, pitw took the bet (bait?) right away, perhaps mostly on all the bearishness around here (and elsewhere) regarding silver. Or maybe he's just a gambler looking to liven this thread up a little like me.

    Seasonal chart(s) notwithstanding, a drop below $19 COULD happen; especially when one looks at all the ominous technical calls floating around currently. I mean, look what happened this morning: decent overnight ramp and all sold back off by 4 o'clock.

    I just don't think it will even drop below $19 this time, little own stay below for 2 days. I think this correction is just about over, if not over (seems to have flattened out the last coupla days).

    Besides, Ima good sport. I *might* give him a chance to win it back or go double-or-nothing on another date or a different bet (his terms next time perhaps)...

    ;)

    Looks like it could be that maybe that finally perhaps she's ready to turn (that green support rising trendline is one I got from the weekly going back to 2013 summer low -see upthread):
    Capture.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2014
  17. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    If I win the bet it will prove an idiot can play the silver game and if I don't win the bet it'll prove an idiot does play the game. With Pm,s more stagnant than water standing in a cement pond I enjoy any diversion. Luckily I don't depend on my knowledge of silver, gold or markets to make a living cause I wouldn't be looking forward to 8 months off if I was.
     
  18. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Silver jumps the *almost* 2 month downtrend iron hurdle. Let's see if they come with the 'smackdown' this morning:

    silver.jpg
     
  19. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    I will be interested to see how silver does when/if it gets to the $21ish region (if it even makes it that high). That will probably depend on how things shake out in Ukraine...is it just jostling? Or something more serious? If Russia and NATO engage in direct fighting...all bets are off. If its just saber rattling...I would imagine the shorts will continue selling rallies.
     
  20. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

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    I'm noticing a trend here. Silver gets bid up right before NY opens, then gets sold off.

    silver.gif
     
  21. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Ya think?

    What manipulation?

    http://www.milesfranklin.com/upload...LL 2011 COMEX GOLD MANIPULATION PICTORIAL.pdf

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...w-where-your-un-rigged-non-barclays-gold-slam

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/the-wi...-lawless-frontier-of-precious-metals-trading/

    etc, etc...

    It's really fine by me. I need moar time for preps/stacking and at these prices, stacking is easier. It's on SALE, which is really amazing to me and incredibly fortuitous for those of us paying attention. A gift from God. If by 2015/2016 the wheels really fall off - I'll be that much more prepared.
     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2014
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  22. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    May this thread never be deleted. ; )
     
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  23. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Dude, this thread (Strawboss's) is the only thread still standing and alive from the days of GIM 1.
     
  24. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Awfully quiet in here.

    Ok, we are on the approach to $19.

    The trendline I had as support from last summers low on the weekly is broken (the purple-bruised one). For whatever reason we bounced off of $19.09 low today. Weekly RSI shows broken uptrend, slow stoch a possible turn up. Daily shows RSI oversold and the channel downward we are in. Anyone's guess at this point. There seems no real buying effort on this smackdown as far as I can see, though $19.09 looked defended (see 15min). If a decisive move up doesn't happen *soon* (tonight?), well....

    If we go lower, past $19.09 - next up is psychological $19.00, then $18.67ish, then $18.20ish.

    As far as I can tell.

    Don't start getting excited yet, pitw; keeping it below the psychological $19 for a duration will take some doing methinks, but what do I know?

    Full disclosure: I am up to my neck, but I managed another purchase today. I had to.

    Weekly:
    weekly.jpg

    Daily:
    daily.jpg

    15min:
    15min.jpg
     
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  25. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    As happens occasionally out here in the sticks, our internet went on a vacation for a day. I saw on BNN that silver was dropping magnificently this am and not even having a radio in my sprayer it did consume some time today wondering where it had gone to.
     
  26. EO 11110

    EO 11110 He Hate Me Mother Lode

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    at the current price, silver dollars have $14.8 of silver melt value in them

    and near trillion dollar dc spending deficits as far as the eye can see

    it aint rocket surgery
     
  27. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Slope of hope?

    This is curious (red trendline):

    Monthly
    slope1.jpg

    Same trendline on the hourly
    slope2.png

    Other than this the only real logical stopping points are $19 and then somewheres near the vicinity of this June's low (18.65ish) and then June 2013's low (18.20ish). I'm not seeing any real buying effort at the current level so this is concerning.

    Pushing it and keeping it below 19 (2 daily closes or more) means I send pitw a 2014 Maple, but if this happens I think it's look out below for silver: especially past this June's low.

    Unbelievable considering the current global happenings.

    I am and will keep buying as much as possible at these levels. I'm not waiting for $15 like some have stated they are. At some point there is going to be a disconnect between paper and physical price and/or lack of available product. It's happened before.
     
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  28. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    As I ain't sure what is going to happen and I have the means I've just kept on keeping on. I've been adding art bars to the stack just cause they are less boring to play with than maples/ASE's.
     
  29. Silver Buck

    Silver Buck Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    While I love to do my Gin Bottling charting, it still comes down to the basics: Silver is brought up as a byproduct and it seems to have found its price at around $19. With Dodd-Frank and other 'game changers' coming into play, the volatility of Silver that made it a speculator's dream is long passed (for at least a generation). In my opinion, Silver is right back where it belongs, as a simple commodity.

    Nothing more.

    And if the economy keeps chugging along (despite what the naysayers believe), Silver will continue to be pulled up out of the ground whether the miners want it or not (lead, zinc, gold, and others). Ask Silver Wheaton how that is working out for them (for the next 50 years... or more). They are making a killing.
     
  30. hoarder

    hoarder Midas Board Mmbr Platinum Bling

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    The "byproduct" theory has been debunked dozens of times here. As long as the supply of paper silver fills most of the demand void, prices will flounder. They may even go lower. Eventually, divergence will bring extreme volatility to the upside.
     
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  31. Unca Walt

    Unca Walt Midas Member Midas Member

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    The "healthy" thing about the future of silver is the cascading (upwards) of solar power.

    Demand has increased more than SIXTY TIMES in only ten years, with a very real likelihood of increasing at that rate for the forseeable future. Silver Buck rightly calls it a commodity.

    YOWZA. True, dat... but a commodity that is a central to a changing paradigm worldwide.

    viz:

    [​IMG]

    ...And if you take note of the seminal, most important breakdown... silver for coins (percentage dropping) and jewelry (percentage dropping) silverware (crunch!) and crap like photography (falling fast to nearly just faint background noise) -- all are turning into blips while the PV industry percentage AND tonnage is exploding:

    [​IMG]

    This is not a "commodity" to be shrugged at.
     
  32. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    I disagree. Sure, silver is a commodity (that gets destructively consumed as fast as it can be pulled from the ground), and gold is a commodity too. However, silver also shares the same characteristics that elevate gold to the status of money. As the printing presses around the world continue to reduce the value of fiat paper, gold and silver prices will rally once again.

    The huge question is why have precious metal prices dropped over the previous years when trillions of less worth fiat have been dumped into the world's economies. I firmly agree with those who say that precious metals prices have been manipulated lower by the banksters and the FED. Like Pavlov's dogs, the hedge funds have been happy to jump on the selling short bandwagon and chase prices still lower with huge short positions. As prices rally, however, the hedge funds will abandon the losing short side, and they will flock back to the long side. Prices will explode with a vengeance, at least until the banksters are ready to manipulate prices back down again.

    This latest audio clip from GATA is well worth the few minutes to listen to.

    GATA on silver.jpg

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
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  33. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    Anyone saying silver is only a commodity is trying to obfuscate the issue. Yes silver has commercial demand in various fields. But silver is also true money. Has been for thousands of years. And will continue to do so. Bankers and their shills can keep stating it isn't money as much as they want. They are still wrong.





    Demand for silver coins is not dropping. It is increasing.


    [​IMG]
     
  34. GOLD DUCK

    GOLD DUCK Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    QWAKJUST KEEP STACKING!:thumbs_up::cheerful:

    the DUCK:s9:
     
  35. wanderintheland

    wanderintheland Seeker Seeker

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    Ahillock said:

    Well said, and those informational charts in your post are excellent.


    Silver Cluck said:


    Everyone knows what you think about silver, Silver Cluck; you say it over and over and over and...

    Insofar as silver being treated more as a commodity than a monetary metal, here is excellent analysis by someone (you would do well to bookmark and watch belangp's other videos) who knows a helluva alot more about the precious metals market than Silver Cluck ever will:

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
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  36. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Man is this silver stuff getting close to going below $19, eh. I am only cheering for one reason.:woohoo:
     
  37. pitw

    pitw Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    OK, it's raining/snowing here and I have some time off and I opened

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...hart.aspx?m=c#

    only to find that it says I need some plugin to see it. I hit the button that says get plugin and things continued downhill from there. So like I mentioned earlier someone will have to tell me if I'm a sender or receiver.
     
  38. GOLD DUCK

    GOLD DUCK Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    QWAK,For most GOLD is far out of reach @$1252.00 :ahhhhh::thumbs_down: but SILVER @$19.03 :thumbs_up::lol04: --- as the little guys BUY because the stock market took a dump :thumbs_down::cry_smile: they will buy SILVER as if it was/is a life saver and they know they are drounding in DEBT!:afraid::vollkommenauf:

    Curent prices of both GOLD and SILVER are at or about -- perhaps below :dontknow: cost to mine and refine ---- I got to think :hmmmm2: that with current GOLD/SILVER ratio being 65.79/1 -- that as the many little guys start buying SILVER economic life preservers the ratio will start going back in the direction of historic norms. :yes:

    I think the US DOLLAR will be gone before we see 16/1 but I think we could see 35 or 40 before the DOLLAR dies.:thumbs_down::vollkommenauf:

    The time for turning SILVER in to GOLD is coming and we will not have to use alchemy to do it!:452::cheerful::thumbs_up:

    the DUCK :15_1_70v:
     
  39. Silver Buck

    Silver Buck Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hey, someone needs to counter the incessant call of 'To The Moon! We're long over due!' by the perma-bulls. And I'm not worrying about knowing more than most anyone else. I'm simply need to know enough when to get in, and when to get out.

    I have done well enough over the past number of years and I know enough not to go 'all in' at this time. Heck, I'm not even looking to replace what I sold a few years ago at this time (the time just isn't right).

    *looks at the price of Silver*

    Indeed, the price action seems to validate my stances over the past couple of years.
     
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  40. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    I agree 1000%...

    I know I havent posted much lately (how many times can you say the market sucks?)...and I am still not seeing anything that would make me reconsider my bearish view of the market. Rallies continue to get sold...its simply that simple...I leave it to others to read the tea leaves as to why that is...

     
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