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Silver

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Strawboss, Apr 1, 2010.



  1. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    The USD is seemingly always the best dressed PIG at the party.
     
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  2. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Best dressed and best disguised. How they make death look like life is amazing.
     
  3. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    My guess is that Armstrong is calling the end of this rally too early. From 2003 through 2011 (until the Bankster bash in 2011), the gold and silver year end rally continued to mid March (plus or minus six weeks). After the fast rise in January, it is reasonable to expect a correction soon, but people who sell here may need to be quick to jump back in if the correction is brief. My plan is to wait another month or two before I take some chips off the table, and hopefully around $22. The downtrend line on the 5 year chart below is close to $22.50, and that looks to me like a good target for transition to the summer doldrums. YMMV so DYODD!

    SILVER weekly through 20150123.jpg

    Edited to replace the three year chart with this five year chart that shows the complete downtrend channel.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2015
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  4. BUILT TO LAST

    BUILT TO LAST Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I heard them call it; "The cleanest shirt in the laundry basket" on Jim Puplavas Financial Sense podcasts.

     
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  5. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I read a blog that called it "The Cleanest Shirt in a Laundry Basket that is on Fire".
     
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  6. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    The reality is more like this...



    You are up because they are down and next they will be up because you are down... and so it will go, until we all throw up!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
  7. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    Zed - you are not far off...Silver is a very volatile trading vehicle/investment...

    It goes up...it goes down...

    I just like riding the waves...

    Hey Weatherman...good to see you...hope all is well for you and your family...
     
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  8. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    Right on time...

    1.jpg
     
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  9. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    BrotherJohnF speculates that the current world wide surge in paper stock markets may be an inflationary blow off in which investors are herded into risky stocks by the policies of ZIRP and NIRP. His guess is that a crash in the world stock markets is inevitable, at an unknown point in time. He continues to see silver as being a most undervalued asset. He also sees technical signs that the silver bull may have already begun to move. I hope he is right on all counts!

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
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  10. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    There really isn't any fundamentals to support the current value of stocks. The current price of stocks is based on corporate buy backs, NIRP/ZIRP, QE, central bank stock purchasing, plunge protection team work, high frequency trades...etc. It is all one big scam going around and around in a circle of debt denominated assets. Sure you can try and jump on the merry-go-round and have fun while it picks up speed. Question is, can anyone of us jump off and head to the exit before it self implodes? I know I don't have the ability to do that as I will be left holding the bag of chit the bankers left for me. Stocks and paper debt assets are all overly priced. I'd rather have some hard asset that has withstood the centuries of civilizations. Barbaric relic and all that.
     
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  11. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    JPM has accumulated a huge stash of physical silver. My approach is to ignore what they say, and watch closely what they do!

    JPM silver.jpg

    Screenshot from http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd, but that info is here today and gone tomorrow.
     
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  12. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Sadly an inventory of that size probably offers more profit opportunity on the down side by leveraging it 100:1 selling short then only having to deliver the 1% they actually have. The loss on the physical inventory would be SUBSTANTIALLY eclipsed by the profit on the short contracts.

    They can play that game until the threat of delivery rises to a point that breaks it.

    ... I have not done the math but I'd not assume that this is necessarily a bullish development.
     
  13. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Am I right in assuming that the more silver they have the more they can control the market? In other words, the larger their physical position the more they can aggressively short the price down. While they profit from the shorted silver they can use that profit to buy more silver ever cheaper until they decide to let go of the leverage and watch the price slingshot back up - At this point they benefit directly from all their stockpiled silver.

    Kind of a win/win for them, all stemming from their ability to influence/rig/control the market.
     
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  14. Zed

    Zed Size doesn't count! Midas Member

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    Yes... it could work that way.

    The restricting factor is physical takeoff, in theory at some point that idea/plan could/should be overwhelmed by demand for settlement in physical as the "off exchange" physical supplies dry up at the lower price and people start to seek physical Comex settlement over the easier route of Comex cash settlement and physical purchase in the OTC market. If the OTC market runs dry or refuses to transact they are a bit screwed.

    In the end it all hinges on the physical market getting what it needs, while that is still occurring the paper market can still swing things too far in either direction. Curently this is a supply deficit market but that is not a cast iron gurantee that it can't be pushed further south successfully.

    That is unless we assume that JPM actually see the physical as a real hedge of some sort and not just a chip in a game. Even then, as you point out, this may work to build inventory further... but I'd argue that is what has happened 2013 to date. I'd say we are near to the end of the accumulation and that the next step is coming soonish. So the fact is we can't know at this point, while it is interesting to observe, until the strategy that this is underpinning is executed we are really guessing... this could mean anything in the shorter term.

    My 2c.
     
  15. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Welcome to Monday morning smackdown episode 5,365! Dollars are awesome! PMs are barbaric relics to be shunned!
     
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  16. Mr Paradise

    Mr Paradise Midas Member Midas Member

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    Just in time for the Louisiana puck ...actually have to add something else to the cart to get the $99 free shipping.
     
  17. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Silver and gold suck, I just dumped them all in the fkin trash.
     
  18. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dangit. I shoulda just done that. It'd have been easier than sinking all those PM flavored boat anchors.
     
  19. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    The next bull market in silver will commence the day after Weatherman turns bearish...

    Until then...the beatings will continue until morale improves....
     
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  20. Deweydog

    Deweydog Seeker Seeker

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    Thank God I dumped at $35-$40.....

    Pity the fools that bought in during the tail end of the run up to 48.......their butts gotta be stinging.....
     
  21. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    I sure do hope you are right about that. I would love to be surprised by a year end rally this year, just like the predictable year end rallies from 2001 to 2011, but I am disillusioned now and I am buying nothing more. For me, that is as bearish as I can become, because I refuse to think about selling anything at these bargain basement prices. Just a month or two ago, I had hopes that a silver shortage would force the banksters to allow prices to rise. The two stories below, however, tell me there is abundant physical silver to meet probable demand, so the banksters can continue their profit printing machine which steals from investors and traders and the miners. I am no longer confident there will be a major rally until the wheels fall off the economic cart, and that could be a difficult time to cash in chips even if the bet wins big. Some days, I wish I was a stock market Pollyanna.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iles-surge-as-demand-wanes-on-slowing-economy

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/why-is-this-bank-stockpiling-silver-like-theres-no-tomorrow/
     
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  22. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    i am bullish quite a few silver stocks if things play out like they should in a bull market over the next year. But silver stocks rallied 2 years before silver in 2001 and started under performing silver in 2004.

    So if we get the silver stock rally that im suspecting that we will get within a year then we have another year to wait for silver to play catch up.

    I have noticed the very cyclical nature of commodity markets and how its only a trade and not necessarily a buy and hold type of asset class...
     
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  23. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Thanks, send me a pm so I don't miss the bottom.

     
  24. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    You are doing it all wrong if you think you can time the bottom.
     
  25. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Wheres the rockets?????????????
     
  26. Mr Paradise

    Mr Paradise Midas Member Midas Member

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    Dead cat bounce me thinks.

    Spring cometh.
     
  27. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Perhaps, just perhaps it's different this time.
     
  28. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Did someone say "rockets"?

    rocket-explosion.jpg
     
  29. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Banned for one year, pornographic posts.
     
  30. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    I have to admit gold and silver have been keeping the good fight. With all the talk of $600 gold and $9 silver, after every smack down they both rebound eventually to their current range defined price. With all of the deflation and search for liquidity going on, that is fairly impressive. $1200 +/- and $16 +/- will have to wait and see what happens this summer.
     
  31. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    What talk of $600 gold and $9 silver are you talking about. I don't recall many if any at all claiming gold and silver will fall to these levels.
     
  32. CrimsonGuardJay

    CrimsonGuardJay Silver Member Silver Miner

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    A lot of "experts" have thrown those numbers around the past few months. I don't think it's likely, but I've surprised multiple times in the past few years, so, who knows. I'll just buy more.
     
  33. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    Harry Dent for one has said $700 gold and lower. #deflation. Martin Armstrong has gone on the record for stating gold to $600-700. I know I have heard/read of others that have said similar. So that point of view is talked about.

    Silver Art for one has claimed $8 silver on here.

    But if you take the current GSR of of ~ 73:1 and say $700-800 gold you get $9-10 silver.
     
  34. Mr Paradise

    Mr Paradise Midas Member Midas Member

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    Bounce - Splat
     
  35. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    You called it.
     
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  36. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    But still contained in that $1200 +/- $20-30 range bound range. Kinda boring at this point, no? Wake me up when we start getting to $1145 and below $1140. But right now, meh.
     
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  37. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    If $14 gives way as the floor for silver - then $8 is definitely a possibility. That doesnt mean it will happen - but, it would definitely be possible. If it was to occur - it would probably be an intraday event where price simply collapses down to that level before buyers jump in and run it back up. Physical would not be available at that price and there would be ridiculous margins added to any offers to sell phyz...

    I dont think its probable that price would drop to that level and sit there for any amount of time. There would simply be too many buyers that would be willing to purchase with the intention of passing it along to the next generation at those prices.
     
  38. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    i have a feeling that silver has bottomed but no guarantees yet.
    The thing is i drew the price objective of the 2013 breakdown at 13.72 and we got really close to it. Also the symmetrical breaks of the long term channel in 2011 and 2014 kind of tells of the end of a move. If on a log chart you draw a line from the 2001 bottom to the 2009 bottom and a parallel line from the 2008 top, you get a channel. In 2011 dilver exceeded this channel to the upside and now it has exceeded it to the downside. No one knows the future so i guess lets wait and see what happens in the next year. There is definitely potential for some silver stocks to reverse trend within 1 year, imo...
     
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  39. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    PMs get taken down nearly every single day at the same time +/- a few MINUTES. Does anyone still seriously believe these markets...any markets, are driven primarily by anything other than manipulation? How anyone can still think that technical analysis has any merit whatsoever in a market that's so blatantly rigged is stunning. Forget the silly trendline theories already. All that matters is how much counterfeit metals commercial banksters can dump into the markets before people grow brains and stop playing their paper ponzi shell game.

    l5TzFRa.png
    Today's chart...but it could just as easily be any other day this week...or year.
     
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  40. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    I dont see people complain metals were bottoming and breaking out to new highs almost the same way day after day, week after week during the bull market. why isnt that manipulation, too?
     
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