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Silver

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by Strawboss, Apr 1, 2010.



  1. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Sorry I wasn't into metals in 1980 so I can't really address your question from personal experience. Last time I did the maths silver's all time inflation adjusted high was $147/ounce so I don't really see where this talk about "bottoming and breaking out to new highs" comes from. Are you referring to the late 70's? Seems a shame that necessity commodities like food and energy don't spontaneously devalue like PMs. Guess there's less motivation for banksters to suppress the price of beef eh?
     
  2. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    Im refering to the rally into the 2011 high. I guess only gold made new highs then but the same point stands. The thing with any market is they go through bull and bear markets.
     
  3. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    If you're not adjusting for the inflation of the currency supply then you're fooling yourself. Gold hasn't hit an all time high in inflation adjusted fiat since 1980 either. Think man. You're measuring value in units that are constantly shrinking.

    qNZ1SYE.png

    https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/gold-is-near-an-all-time-inflation-adjusted-low

    This is very different from the price of 1lbs of ground beef. Average price in 1980 dollars was $1.29 and today it's $4.18(+224%). Shall we compare housing prices in a similar fashion? Auto prices? College tuition? What do you suppose those price comparisons will show?

    Why is it that only PMs seem to be so far below their inflation adjusted all time highs as measured in fiat?
     
  4. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    It shows that demand for metals has not grown as much as demand for food or housing as population grew? Its pretty obvious young kids dont care about metals but they still like beef.
     
  5. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Population increase = increased silver demand...yet the price of an ounce of silver in absolute dollar terms is -66% 1980-present. In inflation adjusted terms it's -90% during that time. Jeepers, you'd think the stuff was completely useless and not among the most crucial industrial metals on the planet. Sure kids don't care about silver...provided their cell phones and computers work.

    VqCXQcB.jpg
    http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/968

    You're kidding yourself if you think supply & demand economics have much of anything to do with the POS.
     
  6. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    Yea, i think it was a mistake for me to talk about fundamentals. I really only care about technicals...
     
  7. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    The technicals are easily manipulated by those that can print paper for nothing and pretend it's metal. Works great as long as people believe it has any validity.

    Yxl7q2m.png
    Oops looks like the "free" market just remembered that metals suck and are horribly overpriced at these levels.
     
    hoarder likes this.
  8. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    Thats the thing... When you find a technical signal that works in a manipulated market, u will have higher probability of success.

    Its said somewhere that elliot wave theory takes manipulation into acct. that theory is too complicated for me though. Technicians just use what works. for me, as long as what i use works, i will keep using it. I dont try to justify price action.

    The very fact that i tried to impose my opinion on the market cost me to miss the rally in general stocks since 2012. U can read it the things i learned from my mistakes thread.
     
  9. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I've zero interest in paper market debt scams. Stagnant wage growth for decades on end and the lowest work force participation rates in THIRTY-EIGHT years. Dow 18k only makes a whole bunch of sense...as long as you keep increasing the currency supply. Currently we have housing, equity, bond, & currency bubbles in full swing.

    In this batshit crazy environment my only interest is in preserving my wealth in commodities & assets I can physically defend.
     
    hoarder likes this.
  10. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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  11. Ahillock

    Ahillock A nobody Mother Lode

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    The manipulation of the markets is so obvious that one would need to go out of their way to state it doesn't exist.
     
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  12. Hunts1980

    Hunts1980 Banned

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    Jeff Christian is the only one left who still says there is no manipulation. Obvious why he says it, and obvious who he works for.

    I love Ted Butlers suggestion that the primary silver producers ask the regulators for an answer to why there is so much evidence for crimes going on, yet they still do not do their job as regulators.

    Some silver producers are doing exacly what Ted suggested. They are asking for answers, the most exciting bit is to see what the regulators say.

    http://gata.org/node/15422

    I hope they dont do anything, then there should be a big investigation and show that the regulators the CFTC are just as big criminals as the criminal manipulators.

    But the big question should not be is the silver price manipulated? We all know it is, the even larger more important question should be What is the real value of silver today?
     
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  13. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin rips into the PM market manipulators.


    The entire commentary is well worth a listen, but he really gets on a roll at about 5:55.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2015
  14. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    Watching and waiting on the silver price...

    I am becoming more and more convinced that $14 is not going to hold and that if it fails - we could be looking at a substantial liquidation. My next target if $14 fails is $8 (although phyz prices will be considerably higher)...

    Watching and waiting...
     
  15. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    All that really matters in the silver "market" which is really just a counterfeiting scheme:

    http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-july-6-2015-14608

    TLDR;

    Large specs increased shorts on sub $16 silver. lol

    Commercial banksters lightened up on their net shorts slightly.

    Supply and demand are irrelevant. PMs have been detached from any market forces save paper market manipulation. The fabricated paper price of silver is given only one way to go...and it is down. Greece defaults(again)...even though we don't call it a default shhhh...., and allegedly volatile silver just sits there and does nothing. Now it's heading lower...doubtless due to dollar "strength" relative to even crappier currency scams. This despite the fact that the US has more debt than any nation in world history and the US economy is heading off a cliff.

    Ask yourself...what would Greenspam do? Right...he'd be stacking physical gold.
     
  16. solarion

    solarion Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    http://www.silverseek.com/article/us-mint-sold-out-silver-coins-due-strong-demand-14617
    http://www.activistpost.com/2015/07/breaking-us-mint-suspends-silver-eagle.html
    http://thedailycoin.org/?p=35614
     
  17. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Better opportunity to DCA.

     
  18. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Nice day so far with silver up 50 cents. It is fun to dream the impossible dream of how high silver and gold could go if the banksters just sit on their hands and do nothing, while the massively short hedge funds scramble to get out of the squeeze!

    To dream the impossible dream.jpg
     
  19. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Plenty of ink left in the paper metals markets, this wont be allowed to stand.
     
  20. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    a 2nd weekly close in a row below $14 wouldnt be a good sign...

    Just sayin'
     
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  21. Mr Paradise

    Mr Paradise Midas Member Midas Member

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    Don't they know they need silver to make solar panels?

    :36_11_6:
     
  22. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter Platinum Bling

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    Put a fork in the bitch, she's done. Gonna be a while until we see anywhere close to $20.
     
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  23. CrimsonGuardJay

    CrimsonGuardJay Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Fine with me. I'm prepared to hold for 5-10+ years if i need to.
     
  24. Strawboss

    Strawboss Intergalactic Silver Guru Gold Chaser

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    I am thinking this rally in the PM's is getting a bit long in the tooth...my rationale is that silver typically "catches up" with gold at the end of rallies whereas gold leads the way. If you look at the percentage gains between the 2 since this rally began - you notice that gold has outperformed...keep an eye on silver. It will catch up in spectacular fashion...and that typically signals the end of the rally and the beginning of the correction.

    I still stand by my belief (and its only that...a belief) that we haven't yet seen the bottom yet in the PMs...
     
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  25. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Renewing this thread

    Please remember, last post from here above was in 2010
     
  26. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    This comments exchange is too good to not be posted in GIM, and where better than in Silver which is the poster child for PMSD.

    PMSD.jpg

    Those comments were in a thread about a frightening overlay chart about the stock market:

    Stocks overlay.jpg
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-18/you-are-here
     
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  27. arminius

    arminius Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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  28. FunnyMoney

    FunnyMoney Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Well if it works then keep using it. But typically a time will come when the fundamentals will take over. The technical charts will then get quickly redrawn after the fact and everyone will say see, the chart does predict what we just saw. A successful trader usually has to follow all details, but if overly weighting the technical cycle inputs is making you money then by all means, ride the wave.
     
  29. sandblaster

    sandblaster Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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  30. Weatherman

    Weatherman In GIM since 2006 Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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