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Small US Gold Coins

Discussion in 'PM's - Coins - Numis - Base Metals' started by Starter, Mar 5, 2016.



  1. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Coin grading is, in large part, very subjective. I have purchased gold coinage exclusively on the low end and have never let a graded coin influence my buying decisions (as in I don't see any excess premium value for a graded coin) other than VF,XF, Cleaned levels of grading. I've found that while these grading levels do incur a slight premium, I view that as having a certain level of assurance that the coin hasn't been too abused. I look at old coinage (ex. pre 1933 gold coins) somewhat the same way I look at 90% silver coins. The premium is supported by its validated authenticity along with some historical value mixed in.

    All that being said I'm a cheap bastard and always looking to lowball my purchases
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2016
  2. Fjpod

    Fjpod Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'm not a fan of slabbed coins either. I'm very happy to have XFs and AUs, with an occasional Vfs if I'm stacking gold.

    Even when I buy 90%, my lcs gives me all vf and up... And for a price that is lower than Ap***.
     
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  3. Fiat Metaler

    Fiat Metaler Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    i have some french roosters are that are much older and historic than that, and which had almost no premium.
     
  4. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    And which probably will have nearly the same premium going forward...

    This was only 1 of the 5 points I listed for my gold coin purchase. The main justification for the premium of this coin was its condition and scarcity.

    The historical value of the 1906-s half eagle is a matter of personal interest for myself, just like the rooster's historical value is to you.

    Now, I'm not trying to be defensive, but I'm pointing out that this is an apples-to-oranges comparison.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
  5. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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    I too avoid slabbed coins. I will buy one if it's something I really want and if it is from a dealer, but I will not pay any extra for the plastic. Bullion price only.
    Who knows what is in that slab and who put it in there? You can't weigh or measure it.
    Every time you buy one you are gambling. I would wager 1/3 or more of the slabbed coins on ebay or floating around at coin shows are fake and 1/3 is probably way low of an estimate.
     
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  6. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Agreed Irons...you and I think similarly...I trust no one as much as I trust myself.
     
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  7. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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    A very smart coin guy on GIM 1 got smoked on a slabbed double eagle back in 2008, it was fake. THAT got my attention.
    My main LCS got smoked on a few slabbed coins a while back. He's old school and the thought of fake coins circulating makes him sick. If you want to sell him a slabbed coin now you have to break it out first.
    Now another LCS loves slabbed coins. That one doesn't care if they are fake as long as he can flip it fast.

    .
     
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  8. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    All very good points.

    This is one of the reasons why I prefer modern gold commemoratives over old-fashioned gold coins (the 1906-s coin was an exception to satisfy my curiosity). The designs change every year, and they tend to be struck in very high detail, making it harder for the counterfeiters to create fakes (relatively speaking).

    On the topic of slabbed coins, I have now begun to prefer NGC slabs over others. Each slab has a number that you can reference on the web. This number tracks the coin, and you can also see pictures of the coin for comparison (at least for the newer slabs).

    Granted, the system is not 100% reliable, but it is improving (in my opinion).
     
  9. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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    I think you should buy coins that make you happy, it keeps it fun. I stack mainly but splurge occasionally. When I scrape some cash together I am going to get a Guinea. I don't need one but I want one and it's going to be expensive. :)
    A nice worn circulated Guinea I can hold in my hand that wasn't a piece of jewelry. I actually got one a few months ago but it had tiny solder marks on it so I sent it back.
    Still looking but no rush, it will happen when it happens.
     
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  10. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I fully agree on this point, but I normally do not consider the "fun" coins as being separate from the "business" coins. I really believe that a moderate amount of premium, maybe up to 40%, can be a good thing, as long as you are very selective with your purchases, in regard to both the price and quality of the coins you buy.

    Out of the 5 gold coins I have bought this year, I would probably say that the 1906-s half eagle ranks 1st in terms of the fun and value I got for my money on the purchase of the coin. The coin is fun because of its special historical value (#1, being an old-style US gold coin, and #2 relating to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake). It is also valuable in that the market value of the coin (based on year+mint mark+condition) compares favorably against its buy price (based on my own analysis...which I started to explain earlier).

    Here is a secret that I learned. Some of the larger coin dealers tend to use blanket pricing. That is, they categorize several issues of coins into categories based on their year and condition, and they set one price for each category of coins (some dealers, though, protect themselves by listing the coins as "random coins"). Once in a while, they might put a more valuable coin into a price category that is one or two notches down, allowing a buyer to get a discount relative to the fair price of the coin. I believe this was the case for the 1999-w Washington PF70 and the 1906-s Liberty Head MS62 coins that I bought as my 4th and 5th coins. I realized this by seeing these coins priced the same as other coins that had weaker market value.

    Once I start buying again (probably 9 months from now), I would probably do well to focus more on lower premium coins, maybe those below 10% (like the 1991-w Mount Rushmore MS69 coin I bought). I found that many sellers on eBay (particularly the smaller coin shops) do not adjust their prices by the melt value of the coins, and that during an upswing in the price of gold, it is possible to get a lower premium on those coins after the melt value has moved upward. If we are indeed in the middle of a gold bull market, then the opportunities of buying coins at reduced premium will likely be there in the coming years. This trick tends to work better on the lower premium coins, since the premium discount is more significant compared to the smaller original premium of the coin.

    Selling the coins is another story, but my plan is to keep the coins into retirement. Once I get there, I plan to begin putting some of my coins up for sale.
     
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  11. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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    I bought a 50 pesos because it's cool! Big, ugly damn near an ounce and a quarter Gold coin!
    If I hadn't lost in in the lake (boating accident) that would be a coin to show people to blow their minds. rockon.gif
     
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  12. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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  13. ttazzman

    ttazzman Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    plastic cases and alphabet graders dont help a bit when the melting pot comes a calling...

    im in the ....buy silver due to GSR crowd....and bullion is bullion ....art is art...so no high premium alphabet soup for me
     

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  14. ToBeSelfEvident

    ToBeSelfEvident Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Slabbers, good luck finding a Greater Fool when TSHTF. If you want to trade with me the slab will be broken and the coin tossed on the scale like any other.
     
  15. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Three years ago, this forum was run by 3-4 Fools who acted like they knew something about gold and silver.

    They never accepted differing philosophies from their own, and they attacked other people who disagreed with them, including myself. After tensions escalated, the arguments flared up to become personal attacks, and they were banned. I am very lucky that I was not the target of the worst attacks (I was attacked at "only" 70% strength), as I was taking a break from the forum.

    Now those Fools are banned, and they can no longer pollute the forum with their stupid words...

    One thing is certain, however. I don't think I will ever meet anyone who is a Greater Fool than one of those 3-4 idiots...unless, of course, someone else steps up to take their place.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2016
  16. Chester-Copperpot

    Chester-Copperpot Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    Selling slabbed coins isn't a problem. Too many fools waiting for Armageddon and the end of the world me thinks.
     
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  17. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Over the last 5 days, silver has definitely gained ground compared to gold, to say the least.

    Even if the GSR graph passed the peak, though, who is to say how rapid it will drop from there?

    Gold still has the advantage of having a more stable price, in general, than silver. If gold and silver move up together, I am also OK with that.

    I agree that many people prefer regular bullion over premium bullion. If those people stick with that idea and actually take the high-premium coins to be melted, it means that the coins remaining will be scarcer than before, just like what happened during the 1933 confiscation, when lots of gold coins were melted. After that period was over, many of the old gold coins with mintage in the millions now have surviving specimens of under 1000, making them a lot more valuable than before.

    Even if the high-premium gold coins are not taken to be melted, any lowering of their premium at that point presents a buying opportunity for those coins, when the premium is lower than normal.
     
  18. Fjpod

    Fjpod Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Your competitors will up the ante.
     
  19. ttazzman

    ttazzman Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    ...in my opinion there is a wide difference between buying bullion and buying art....

    art (slabed graded high premium coins etc) ......only has the advantage over other created art pieces in that it has a base intrinsic value represented by the melt value ......that being said art market values come and go with popularity ..rareness...desireability ...just like any other art pieces......usually in the art market only experts and the dealers make any money.....

    my point is......to make money in the "art"market you either have to be lucky or a expert(good)....obviously at the levels your playing the game your not a expert so you better be lucky.....but i also respect that you can spend your hard earned $ any which way you choose.....

    i personally after being in PMs since the 1970s will always choose to buy more bullion for my $

    Interestingly enough i did buy bullion coins with bullion premiums when issued the First series Aussie lunar coins both gold and silver now the market has decided they deserve a "art" premium of ~100% or so .....so it is possible to buy bullion and get a art premium later if your lucky

    so i wish you the best of luck...
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2016
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  20. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Nice comparison between numismatics and art...I mostly agree with it.

    Art and numismatics require expertise, as you mentioned. The areas of expertise needed for these disciplines can basically be broken down into 3 areas:

    1) Recognition - Accurately identifying the nature of each piece, including whether it is real or counterfeit, its origin and background (assuming it is real), classification into variations, and assessing the condition (these last 2 areas are more common with numismatics).

    2) Appraisal - Accurately determining the current market value of each piece, based on the identity of the piece (refer to #1), its condition (also refer to #1), and the current market situation.

    3) Prediction - Predicting the future price of the piece, based on market trends and estimation of how they will change in the future.

    Recognition:
    Fortunately, for numismatics, coin grading services (like NGC and PCGS) take a lot of the burden off the shoulders of coin collectors, and these grading services are now entrenched in the coin market. Of course, they charge a fee for their services, but these fees are often baked into the price on the market. On the bright side, the grading services make the transactions more liquid, helping both buyers and sellers.

    Appraisal:
    For graded coins, a lot of the coin market is well cataloged into types, years, and varieties. The coins have established prices on the market, and those prices are well recorded and indexed by condition, type, year, and variety. This makes it relatively easy to appraise the value of a coin (with proper research), assuming that the coin has undergone 2-3 years of market history (for example, the 2014 Baseball HOF coins have just gone though this initial pricing history). The coins that are more difficult to appraise are the ones that have experienced less than 2 years of market history, but this means that more buying opportunities also tend to be available (with luck) during this initial market warm-up phase.

    Prediction:
    For semi-numismatic coins, part of the price prediction is tied to bullion prices, and the other part is tied to the art component (as you mentioned). In both areas, however, you generally need to be lucky. You can try to do better than average at studying the price trends, but in both areas it takes a combination of disciplined effort and good luck in order to succeed.


    So despite the similarities between art and numismatics, consumers of numismatics (that is, coin collectors) can leverage the hard work of the real experts regarding the 1st and 2nd areas, recognition and appraisal. Aside from that, they can put in their own effort to find good deals--that is, find pieces that are priced below the current market price, as buyers. As sellers, they can likewise leverage the expertise of others in these areas to ensure that they do not accidentally sell pieces below their market value.

    Anyway, thanks for the good luck.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2016
  21. ToBeSelfEvident

    ToBeSelfEvident Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    My competition will pay more and eat more fakes. I'll test and weigh the actual COIN while others argue the value of plastic.
     
  22. ttazzman

    ttazzman Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    I would like to make a point of experience .....during the last PM price peak i observed the "art" premium for semi-numismatics did not increase in direct perportion to the base metal increase and in fact decreased proportionally which led me to the conclusion that the "art" premium did not have a direct relationship to the to the underlying base metal price. I noted that some semi-numismatics as bullion prices started to peak the premium got very close to zero which i noted appeared to be a indicator of a impending price peak of bullion prices at the time...

    this price action further reinforced my opinion that bullion vs numismatics market wise are at best very loosely related

    to a previous comment regarding melting increasing numismatic value due to increased scarcity i want to comment that i do participate in that overall concept in that i have many bags of all types of 90% junk silver ......so one of these days it should start having some added numismatic value :)
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2016
  23. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The price of the gold dime is 205.

    There is also a document from the Mint with the complete price chart. In the current price bracket, the prices of the 3 coins would be 205/460/865 (though this may very well change if the recent price jump over 1250 holds).

    https://www.federalregister.gov/art...berty-quarter-and-walking-liberty-half-dollar


    Based on a gold spot price of 1265, this is a premium of 62%/45%/36%.

    For people deciding between these coins and the commemorative half eagles (like me), the Mark Twain and National Park coins are 405 and 395, for premiums of 32% and 29%.

    This tells me a few things:

    1) The Mint anticipates blockbuster sales (probably rightfully so), and therefore sets a premium of the 1/4 oz coin that is a step higher than the 2 gold half eagles it is currently offering

    2) The large number of choices for gold coins may very well limit the mintage of the commemorative half eagles, perhaps ending even with lower mintage than the 2015 coin (in uncirculated)

    Even though the centennial gold coins are much more widely followed than the half eagles, I anticipate that mintage of the half eagles will be very low. Combined with the comparatively lower premium of the half eagles, this is a strong point for the half eagles in my view.

    My buying philosophy tells me to watch and wait for about 8 months or so, and see which of these 5 coins gives me the best buying opportunity at that point.

    Anyway, I now prefer slabbed coins over raw ones. If I can't get a slabbed 70 coin of one of these 5 issues at a reasonable price at the end of the year, I'll probably just skip them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2016
  24. ttazzman

    ttazzman Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    30%+++ premiums for new production bullion coins just boggles my mind
     
  25. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    .....and...it's gone!
     
  26. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Prices of the 2016-w Mark Twain gold coin have begun to creep down just a little bit on eBay. I suspect it is partly due to the other gold coins now being offered by the Mint.

    I guess sometime this summer, perhaps Jul or Aug, would be a good time to take a closer look at prices again. This assumes, of course, that gold spot prices do not move very far from what they are today.

    The three gold commems from 2015 and 2016 (in uncirculated) are shaping up to be very low mintage issues.

    By the way, there is one dealer on eBay whose auction prices for the gold commems tend to be lower than the others. If I had known this for my 1st gold coin, I probably could have saved a little money on the purchase.
     
  27. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Lost another very close auction on eBay, by just 5 dollars...

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1913-S-5-GO...548626?hash=item43edb01492:g:vpwAAOSwubRXIjOc

    This is a 1913-s Indian Head half eagle in AU 50 condition. The book value is 670, which translates to 435 using my own pricing system.

    With a shipping cost of 12.99, the winner paid 398+12.99 = 410.99, which in my mind was not a big enough margin under the fair market value to justify going 5 dollars higher.

    I placed a bid of 393 last night, and it held for the entire night. I started today thinking that I would win the auction, but apparently the bidder who last bid 388 took another look and decided that it was worth it to go 5 dollars higher.

    The closeness of this auction gives me more confidence in my pricing system (which is a scaled-down version of the NGC price guide). Granted, it is not completely accurate, but it works for me.
     
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  28. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'm going to be honest with myself. The 1906-s half eagle I got for 423 dollars, graded at MS 62, seems below average for its grade. The NGC price guide lists values of 775 and 625 for grades MS 62 and MS 61. This translates to actual values of 473 and 421, when my price scale is applied to the book value (this uses today's melt value of 311, several dollars above the original melt value).

    Although the coin seems below average for MS 62, it is safe to say the grader was correct in grading it as MS 62. Differences in actual coin quality within a single grade are inevitable, as the coin grader must choose between the higher and lower grades. A reasonable estimate for the price of this coin is to take the price point 3/4 the way between the MS 61 and MS 62 values. This value is 460, which is higher than my purchase price by 37 dollars. If we use the original melt value of 300, the value of the coin becomes 453, which is still higher by 30 dollars.

    Incidentally, I saw another 1906-s NGC MS 62 half eagle go for 440 dollars in auction a few weeks ago. Anyone is welcome to look at the two coins side by side:


    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1906-S-5-Go...770531?hash=item4d42987923:g:HzsAAOSw8RJXDRQ0

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1906-S-US-G...372716?hash=item5d62e8a6ac:g:CdQAAOSwHgVW7o~m


    Most people would agree that the 1st coin is in better shape than the 2nd one (my coin). But with a price lower by 17 dollars, I would happily take the 2nd coin any day of the week. In any case, I would have bid 420 for the 1st coin if I had been given the chance, even considering that I already have another coin with the same date and mint mark!
     
  29. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    You all missed another opportunity to make $500+ per address you may have with the mercs. Very little time consumed.
     
  30. Hystckndle

    Hystckndle Daguerreotype Fanatic Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    Hello Starter,
    Cool thread.
    Hey, a guy here a few years ago, good guy,
    Captain Hans Solo ( great nic he has although abbreviated it is in real life here )
    turned me on to
    Www.auctionsniper.com
    I have had very , very good success with this program
    with Ebay.
    It has been a great helpmeet for me.
    Perhaps not for you but you might check it out.
    RE: 5 bucks for something you want in the big picture
    is a pittance and not worth stressing over and watching Ebay like a hawk and playing the end is such a time consumer.
    Also, some peeps on Ebay ( lonely auctions where you are the only bidder ) will bid against you not because they want it sometimes....but just because they just don t want YOU to have it.
    Sniper lets you come in at your predetermined price in the last 7 seconds while you are eating ribs somewheres else. Small fee. Totally worth it, to me anyways. :)
    FWIW, YMMV. Regards, Haystackneedle
     
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  31. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Won another auction, finally, after several weeks of barely losing auctions on eBay...

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2015-W-NGC-...244742?hash=item4d43c1a046:g:VRgAAOSw2GlXFDCI


    This will be my 3rd example coin of the 2015-w US Marshals gold coin, graded MS 70. Besides wanting to win an auction (rather than keep losing), my main motivation for buying the 3rd coin was to bring down my cost average for the Marshals coin. At a price of 388.26, my 3rd example coin beats the prices of my 2nd and 1st coins by 16.74 and 31.69 (even though the 1st coin lacks the "first day of issue" label of the 2nd and 3rd coins).

    Although I still believe the price I paid for my 1st coin was justified by the very low mintage, over the last weeks I realized that there was one coin dealer that was overstocked with coins like these, offering them up in auction day after day at lower prices than seen elsewhere, and making new lows in prices that were unprecedented. Instead of shaking my fists at this dealer and the customers who bought the coins at those lower prices, I made an effort to get one of these coins at a lower price--this time, I succeeded in doing so.

    The price of the 2015-w US Marshals MS 70 FDI gold coin varies greatly even with this dealer alone. When the dealer initially offered them up for auction, the "first day of issue" boosted prices to the 440 level, for the first few coins sold. After customers quickly realized there were more coins to come, the price gradually dropped all the way down to 390, for the two lowest-priced auctions. Then prices make a modest jump upward for a week or so (one even selling for 420 recently), but I was able to find this particular auction in which the price was lower than the others, and I won the auction at 388.26.

    I am confident that once this dealer clears its inventory of coins like these, the 2015-w US Marshals MS 70 gold coin will once again move up in price to levels more appropriate for its very low mintage. In the meantime, I will just be happy to be one of the customers who were able buy this coin at a price like this.
     
  32. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If I didn't know otherwise, I'd think the seller is a branch of a certain TPG. The cities of the 2 are too close geographically to be a coincidence.
     
  33. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'm sure they save lots of money on shipping costs when sending in coins to be graded!

    They also sell raw coins by the way...here is one coin I was surprised to see:

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2014-P-5-oz...243110?hash=item51e3fb38e6:g:BesAAOSwXj5XGOMQ

    Not a "small gold coin" for sure, but definitely of interest!

    By the way, my 6th gold coin just came in the mail today. Now it is really time to take a long break from buying. I will try my best to take a picture of all of them soon...
     
  34. stAGgering

    stAGgering Seeker Seeker

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    That's the talking I hear.
    My best is 1875 Seated quarter MS-63 and I dug it right out of the ground.
    Like Iron however, yet to dig GOLD.
    1836 draped bust half dime is AU and I like to touch it anyway and any time as it came out of the dirt.
    I dare say I am ready to find the cache or purse or SOMETHING with gold in it... now.
    FFO; For Fondling Only.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2016
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  35. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Now looking for a nice $5 Indian gold coin, if the price is right.

    On the modern side, the Mark Twain $5 Uncirc coin looks attractive, with mintage remaining stagnant at 5,248 (as compared to the final mintage of the 2015 Marshals coin at 6,743 and the 2012 SS Banner at 7,027).

    Meanwhile, National Park Service $5 Uncirc is at 2,924.

    When the 1997 Jackie Robinson coin set the low mintage record at 5,174, it also competed in sales with another $5 gold coin of the same year, the FDR coin (mintage 11,894).

    I anticipate one or both of the 2016 gold coins to end with lower mintage than the 2015 coin.

    Within the next 6 months, I will aim for the $5 Indian and both 2016 coins.
     
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  36. ttazzman

    ttazzman Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter

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    those Indian coins are very interesting coins but certainly disproportionately expensive as coins go
     
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  37. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Agreed...but I am only trying to get one of them.
     
  38. Fiat Metaler

    Fiat Metaler Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I think its great to buy fractional bullion.

    But the reason to buy bullion is very different from the reason to buy art or numismatics, and they are very much at odds. The intrinsic, durable qualities of bullion are absent from "art"/numis.

    I would much rather have twice or 2.5X times as much non-collectible bullion than I would slabbled numi. If you really like it for the art sake, then buy polished gold coins that have lost their numi value but have the same, even shinier, art work.

    I think some folks want to speculate in numis, which is their choice, and want others to convince them they made a good decision. Well, some speculations work out, and some don't. The bottom line is that the reason a speculation in numis will work is very different from the reasons a speculation in bullion will work. And yes, allocation to bullion is a speculation, not an investment. An investment is a contribution of funds to the efforts of others in a business with a reasonable expectation of profit. A speculation is an allocation of funds to something you believe is temporarily mis-priced and which you believe will eventually become correctly priced.
     
  39. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It now looks like firstmoderncoins is out of business now, unless I am mistaken...

    http://stores.ebay.com/FirstModernCoins_W0QQ_sasiZ1

    If I am right, it would explain why they auctioned off so many of the 2015-w US Marshals $5 gold coins at below-average prices. They held those auctions to empty their inventory, so that they could go out of business.

    Based on this information, I feel that the following points are true:

    1) When I bought my 2015-w coin at 388.26, I was very fortunate to do so. My highest-priced one out of the 3 was bought at 419.95, which doesn't seem that expensive anymore. Now that firstmoderncoins is no longer in the market, the downward pressure on the price of this coin is gone.

    2) Similar opportunities to buy the 2016-w coins at low prices may not be as easy to find, as I originally envisioned, as a result of firstmoderncoins leaving the market. An alternative way to get the coins may be to first buy them from the US Mint (surprise!), and then send them to NGC for grading (though I have not tried this before). Even if firstmoderncoins is still in business, the 2016-w coins may still be hard to get (in MS 70), as it now seems that they overbought the 2015 coins, not the 2016 ones (earlier I assumed that they would do the same for the 2016 coins as well...but now they don't have the money to make that happen).

    I still have a few months to see whether some dealers will lower their prices on the Mark Twain MS 70 coin, or the National Park one. If the luck does not materialize, I may just decide to buy the coins from the Mint. The prospect of having two mintage winners in a single year is hard to pass up.
     
  40. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    During the time since I wrote this post, I have realized that the Indian, Mark Twain, and National Park coins are now in high demand, looking at their current prices. Also, the jump in gold spot price has not helped the situation, as the Mint has raised the price of the 2016 coins by about 20 dollars with the jump.

    I will still look forward to these coins as a long-term goal, but in the interest of finding good deals, I expect to find the good deals elsewhere. In particular, the Liberty $5 gold coins remain good buys in general, and many $5 gold commemorative coins of random years are still being auctioned with low premiums.

    I will be staying within the 450 dollar range...maybe 600 in some exceptional cases. Earlier this week, I placed a bid for 592.99 for a 2001-w Capitol Visitors coin, graded MS 70 NGC. I lost this auction to the eventual winner, who bid 701.99 for the coin (a few days earlier, one guy paid a Buy It Now price of 750 for a similar coin). Here is one example where the NGC book value of 1850 was grossly overpriced (both the mintage and NGC population of this coin are higher than the 2015-w Marshals coin, which is priced much lower). For this reason, I applied a heavier discount to the book value than usual. This discount places the ideal bid for this coin at 703.74 (my bid of 592.99 was based on a conservative estimate of the price).

    For the Indian coins, I am applying a lighter discount to the book value to reflect the higher demand for these coins. Even so, many auctions still end higher than my projected price. Of the 5 Indian auctions I am monitoring today, 3 out 5 have already exceeded my ideal bid. The same dealer is auctioning Liberty coins as well. As the day passes by, I will zero in on the best deal based on the current bid and my ideal bid for the coin.

    The Liberty coins and most gold commemorative coins fall somewhere in the middle, in terms of how much discount I am applying to the book value. This pricing reflects the generally moderate price level of these coins.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2016

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