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Small US Gold Coins

Discussion in 'PM's - Coins - Numis - Base Metals' started by Starter, Mar 5, 2016.



  1. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Finally won another gold coin auction, after taking a break of almost 3 months. This one is a 2006-s San Francisco Old Mint MS 70 coin...

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2006-S-5-Gold-Coin-San-Francisco-Old-Mint-NGC-MS-70-Auction-1-/361670816777?ul_noapp=true&nma=true&si=wkUe26vOh3ixo8hBtwmqbU%2Bg8s8%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557


    Looking at recent prices of this coin, it appears to be one of the more unpopular coins of the $5 gold commemorative series, having a premium of 10.5% above spot, even in MS 70 condition.

    Despite its unpopularity, though, I see mostly good points for the coin:

    1) With a low premium (10.5%) and fairly low mintage (17,500), there is very little downside for this coin.

    2) In my own collection, having both the original 1906-s Liberty coin and the newer 2006-s commemorative coin (with Liberty reverse) is a good match. I will be able to see how well the Mint replicated the design for the reverse.

    3) Graded MS 70 in a sturdy NGC holder. After considering the cost of buying a raw coin from the Mint and sending it in for grading--not to mention the possibility of receiving a flawed coin from the Mint--only now have I fully realized the advantages of having a graded, slabbed coin included in the purchase price.


    This coin was sold by the dealer along with two other coins like it. The buyers of those two coins paid 5 dollars less than I did. When the same dealer returned the next day to sell two 1997-w FDR coins, I returned the favor (to one of the buyers who kicked me out of the lower price range) by bumping his bid on the two coins from 380 to 430 on one coin, and 406 to 430 on the other one (using bids of 425), resulting in that buyer paying 74 dollars more for both coins (as compared to me paying 5 dollars more for my 2006-s coin). Revenge is sweet!
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2016
  2. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    After 7 coins, my average ratio of cost over melt value is now 1.19, partly thanks to the jump in spot prices over the last half year...

    2015-w US Marshals 419.95 1.30
    1991-w Mount Rushmore 322.94 1.00
    2015-w US Marshals FDI 405.00 1.25
    1999-w Washington 373.13 1.15
    1906-s Liberty Head 423.00 1.31
    2015-w US Marshals FDI 388.26 1.20
    2006-s SF Old Mint 360.00 1.11
    Total 2,692.28 1.19​

    The 1991-w Mount Rushmore now has a melt value equal to its cost.

    This is a great time to pick up MS69 and PF69 coins at melt value. I was going to grab one today, but another bidder beat me to it...

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1989-W-Cong...611119?hash=item568b52412f:g:41AAAOSwV0RXp7mE

    Lost a few more auctions today, but now getting a better idea of Liberty half eagle prices. I believe I have the right price within a 5-dollar margin...
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2016
  3. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I agree that buying gold for its melt value is a different principle from buying gold for its collector value.

    However, I think that the idea of separating gold into "bullion" and "numismatic" categories is often over-emphasized. In fact, there are many examples of "numismatic" coins that sell very close to their melt value (around 5% premium or less). One kind of example is MS69 and PF69 gold commemoratives, which often sell at around 5% premium. This is a lower premium than some of the cleaned/polished examples of Liberty and Indian coins that often command premium of about 15% or so.

    On the flip side, a lot of "bullion" coins of comparable size sold by the major dealers are sold at higher premiums (around 15% premium). Of course, one of the justifications of the ~15% premium of "bullion" coins is their potential for numismatic value, like we see with many of the Perth Mint coins, which are sold as "bullion" coins but also have numismatic premium.

    With the coins of lower premium, the premium is more stable and you are less likely to be cheated. With coins of higher premium, the premium is more variable and there may be the opportunity to get a bargain by buying the coin at a premium less than it usually commands.

    I like both ways of investing in PMs, and I do not see how they would be at odds with each other. In both cases, you can get a price advantage by looking for lower prices.
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
  4. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The Mark Twain and National Park uncirc coins are on track to reach very low mintages. The numbers speak for themselves:

    2016 NPS Commemorative Coins

    $5 Gold Uncirculated 2,963 2,983 20 0.67%

    2016 Mark Twain Commemorative Coins

    $5 Gold Uncirculated 5,258 5,267 9 0.17%

    http://www.coinnews.net/2016/08/18/us-mint-sales-2016-presidential-1-coin-sets-debut/

    Mark Twain is the earlier-released coin, so the assumption is that its sales will end by the end of this year. That leaves 19 weeks of sales. At an average of 9 coins per week, that means 171 more coins will be sold. If buyers see the low mintage and buy 5 times as many during the last 4 weeks, that will be an extra 144 coins sold, for a total mintage of 5582.

    The Jackie Robinson coin ended with mintage of 5,174, followed by the 5-Star Generals coin with 5,667. By these estimates, it looks like the Mark Twain coin will have the 2nd-lowest mintage of all.

    Now, the National Park Service coin may even end lower, as its current mintage is still less than 3k. The big question is when will the Mint stop sales of this coin, and it's anyone's guess. But if we assume 40 more weeks of sales, with 5 times more sales during the last 4 weeks, it means that about 1120 more coins will be minted, resulting in an ending mintage of only 4,103...this coin has a real chance of breaking the low mintage record!

    Although the cost of buying raw coins and sending them in for grading is discouraging, another option is to wait for the coins to rise in value before sending them in for grading. Maybe this is the course of action I will take...but given the fairly high issue price of the uncircs at 424.75, perhaps I will buy only the National Park coin.

    In the meantime, I will be happy with the great price I got for a 2014-w Baseball HOF MS 69 coin, at 357.79 (as I mentioned in the other thread), about 60 dollars below the issue price...

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2014-W-5-Go...199556?hash=item4d491e3a44:g:NRAAAOSwnQhXpPrT
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2016
  5. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Very low sales for both coins this week, for the uncirculated variety of coins that is...

    2016 NPS Commemorative Coins
    $5 Gold Proof 3,960 3,999 39 0.98%
    $5 Gold Uncirculated 2,983 2,994 11 0.37%
    Three-Coin Proof Set 12,231 12,309 78 0.64%

    2016 Mark Twain Commemorative Coins

    $5 Gold Proof 12,132 12,152 20 0.16%
    $5 Gold Uncirculated 5,267 5,266 -1 -0.02%

    These are pretty decent combined sales for the year so far, with a total of 36,720 $5 gold commems of both types and varieties combined, but only 8,260 of those coins are of the unc variety.

    This week, I was beginning to doubt that the Mint would discontinue sales of these coins by the end of Q1 next year (or Q4 this year), but judging by the strong combined prf+unc sales in both programs (19k for NPS, and 17k for Mark Twain), and especially news that a 2017 $5 gold commem is in the works,

    https://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/commemoratives/?action=2017BoysTownCommem

    the scenario that the Mint will discontinue both the NPS and Mark Twain programs by the end of Q1 next year (or Q4 this year) is very likely. In this scenario, that leaves 31 weeks of sales for both programs. If we assume 16 per week for the unc NPS and 8 per week for the unc Mark Twain, with 5 times as many sales in the last 4 weeks (by coins shops anticipating low ending mintage), this results in 752 more unc NPS and 376 more unc Mark Twain coins, for ending mintages of 3,746 for the unc NPS and 5,642 for the unc Mark Twain.

    I think that the decent sales figures for both programs would be stronger if each one had their own year to be sold, but they are effectively sharing sales by being sold in the same year, lowering the total potential sales for both programs. Maybe some collectors would have bought coins from both programs, but did not do so due to lack of funds for the year. Although demand for the coins isn't amazing, it is respectably decent given the circumstances, and the very low anticipated mintage for the NPS gold unc (by my estimates) makes it definitely a worth a try at the US Mint issue price.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2016
  6. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Lately, I've been watching prices of the MS 70 Mark Twain and National Park coins in the secondary market, and they have been roughly echoing the mintage figures during the last 2 months, with the low mintage of the NPS coin leading to especially higher prices on eBay.

    One dealer recently sold two MS 70 examples of the Mark Twain at 445 dollars within the last 2 weeks, and at least one ER MS 70 example sold for 467 dollars. Of course, this is higher than the mint issue price of 424.75, but some collectors like the assurance of having an MS 70 coin, with the cost of grading built into the price (after researching the grading process myself, I don't blame them...). At 445 dollars, the coin was priced just right for both the seller and the buyer--high enough for the buyer to think twice, but low enough once the buyer considers the cost of grading the coins.

    The National Park coin has seen significantly better success on the secondary market. As I recall, some MS 70 examples were selling for 480 dollars back in June, but these quickly sold out at that price. In July and August, several MS 70 examples were sold in the 490 to 530 range, to the point that the coin seems to be sold out with some of the dealers already (perhaps they want to wait until the final mintage numbers are settled). These kinds of prices are taken by buyers who feel they must have an MS 70 example of the coin, and who also see the price of the coin moving upward as the coin draws closer to being discontinued. I also see an upward price trend for these coins, but I would rather take the Mint issue price, with a decent chance of having an MS 70 coin and paying for the grading myself.

    I was definitely considering picking up the MS 70 Mark Twain for 445 dollars, but once I realized that the same amount of money could be used to buy a raw NPS unc gold coin from the Mint (with some extra change to spare), I withheld my purchase. I'm sure there are many gold commem collectors out there who also feel the same way...

    Last week, the number of NPS gold unc coins sold by the Mint broke the 3k mark, putting the total unc+prf sales for gold NPS at 19448.

    http://www.coinnews.net/2016/08/31/us-mint-sales-american-liberty-silver-medals-total-24440/

    This 19k figure is higher than the Mark Twain unc+prf sales figure of 17,440, despite the Mark Twain coins having been offered for two months longer than the NPS. The difference can be partly explained by the presence of the 3-coin set for the NPS coins, but not the Mark Twain.

    My last mintage estimate of 3,746 for the NPS gold unc was based on the coin being discontinued at the end of Q1 2017. There is a slight chance that the coin will remain for sale until the end of Q4 2017, even though a new 2017 gold commem will be issued next year (we saw this happen with some of the 2012 ATB P coins). If this happens, it would extend the buying period of the coin by 39 weeks, resulting in 624 more coins (based on sales of 16 per week), resulting in a final mintage of 4,370. This number is still well below the current mintage record of 5,174 (owned by the 1997-w Jackie Robinson coin) for the gold unc commems.

    By the way, I know a little more about the NGC grading process at this point. Besides the grading fee, there are also shipping fees, handling fees, and membership fees. I was able to find a dealer who is able to help in the grading process; if I go with him, he will charge 25 dollars (for grading 5 coins) in addition to normal costs, but I would not be required to pay the 39 dollar membership fee to NGC. I just need to find some coins in my collection to reach the 5-coin mark (in order to use the Modern grading fee tier), as I can see myself buying no more than 3 NPS gold unc coins.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2016
  7. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Just a few moments ago today, I made a resolution to myself to stop pursuing the Indian and Liberty half eagle coins, from now throughout the first half of 2017. They are great pieces of history, but I have realized that prices on eBay for some of these coins (especially the Indian) are often overbid to excessive levels. The prices of the Liberty half eagle coins are more reasonable, for the most part, but I have decided to settle with the lone example Liberty coin in my collection, dated 1906-s. Getting a Liberty half eagle dated in the 1880s is not an unreasonable goal, but I have decided that this goal is best delayed until the second half of next year. The Liberty coins dated earlier than 1880 also tend to be overbid on eBay like the Indian coins, and it now seems to me that one dated in the 1880s is not much different than the 1906-s coin already in my possession.

    With 8 gold coins in my collection now, the plan is to increase the count to 15 by the end of 2017, giving me 16 months to buy 7 more gold coins. The purchasing of those remaining 7 coins may not happen evenly over time, though, as it will depend on the coins available on the market at a given time and the overall price trend of gold in general. If gold is indeed in a bull market, as many experts say now, it would make more sense to buy the majority of the coins earlier, rather than later, to take advantage of the price increase that would result from the increase in spot gold.

    Some people on this forum may have already noticed that I have pinned my hopes on the 2016-w National Park Service Unc gold coin. This is a rational decision on my part, based on my observations of the eBay market and the mintage numbers from Coin News. When the cards fall next year (and the following year), it is possible that I will be proven wrong, but at least I can assure myself that my decision is based on careful analysis, not personal feelings. I will give this plan a good review within the next several days, before I finally pull the trigger.

    http://catalog.usmint.gov/100th-ann...rculated-coin-16CB.html?cgid=nps-gold#start=1

    I have saved a good amount of money on eBay by buying graded coins, whose grading cost was already baked into the price. On top of this, I believe that my buy price was lower than the actual value of the coin in most cases, probably the one exception being the very first gold coin I bought. Buying raw gold coins from the Mint and sending them in for grading will be a new experience for me, but I feel I am now ready to take that challenge. I will be getting help from a very renowned numismatist, who will charge a fee less than the NGC membership fee, allowing me to save a few dollars while also getting valuable guidance in the grading process.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2016
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  8. HistoryStudent

    HistoryStudent Midas Member Midas Member

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    The new NGC label on the QUARTER are beautiful - I can just Imagine how nice the HALF will be...
     
  9. HistoryStudent

    HistoryStudent Midas Member Midas Member

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    That's the whole PREMISE on Eric Jordan's MODERN COMMERATIVE COINS book - in a nutshell...
     
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  10. Fjpod

    Fjpod Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I picked up some pre 33 US gold today. A $5 Liberty for $345, a $5 Indian for $400, and a $10 Liberty for $700. All are in XF+ to AU-, IMHO. I seem to have a terrific LCD. I like the old stuff. ... If you consider 140 years to be old.

    But wouldn't you know, I just lost them all in an unfortunate boating accident.
     
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  11. Eyebone

    Eyebone Midas Member Midas Member

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    Too clique.

    Try being needy.
     
  12. Fjpod

    Fjpod Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Ehhhhhhh, not sure how to take this.
     
  13. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I think the correct spelling of the word is "cliché", but perhaps Eyebone did not know how to type the special character in the word, so he used a different spelling instead (next time, try copy-paste, Eyebone!).

    I also like the old gold coins, but as I mentioned in my earlier post, I'll be giving higher priority to the NPS coin, until I plan to buy again next year.
     
  14. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Just realized that the Mint lists their own sales figures for numismatic products on this site...

    http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_min...istics/index.cfm?PageNum=1&StartRow=1&i=1&#CM

    I like the format of this report better, as it also lists the Mint product number next to each product's sales figure, while the report at Coin News only lists products by name. In some cases, you cannot afford to buy the wrong coin, when you intend to buy a specific issue and version of coin! In this case, the product number of the coin I intend to buy is 16CB, which has the following entry in the report for September 04, 2016:

    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,047

    A lookup in the Mint catalog of product code 16CB brings me to this page...

    http://catalog.usmint.gov/100th-ann...rvice-2016-5-gold-uncirculated-coin-16CB.html

    Now it's just a matter of deciding on the timing and number of coins to buy. Yesterday, gold took a hit, casting doubt over the possibility that spot gold will be moving into the next higher price bracket of the Mint. If spot gold keeps going down to below 1300 (the PM gods forbid!), we may be looking into the possibility of buying at the next lower price bracket.

    Also, with my plans to submit the coins to NGC for grading, I know that NGC has a 5-coin minimum for using the Modern tier of grading fees. If I did not have a case for buying 5 coins, this rule would pose a problem for me. But this purchase is an exception, as I now think that the coin is truly worthy of spending my money for 5 of the same coin. The cost of this purchase would not be more than buying a gold eagle 4-coin set, or a pair of 1-ounce gold coins of any 2 varieties. More importantly, this purchase is taken in the context of a 2-year time frame for my budget, as I intend to take a long pause after buying these coins.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
  15. Usc96

    Usc96 Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Fun thread. It's almost a diary over time of Starter's internal conflict as he becomes more and more of a numismatic collector. The internal conflict is how to balance wanting to collect coins that speak to you while at the same time not wasting money that could otherwise go to stacking.

    Solution is to create two piles. One made up of eagles and krugerrand that you just throw in a box and never look at, and another of the collector coins whose true value will only be realized after 10+ years of holding them.

    Between the two piles (absent true TEOTWAWKI), the collector numismatic coins should increase the most over time.
     
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  16. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The Mint sales reports came out today...

    http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_min...istics/index.cfm?PageNum=1&StartRow=1&i=1&#CM

    Both versions of NPS gold coin got a huge boost this week, as can be seen in the numbers below:

    9/4/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4,105
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,047
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12,484

    9/11/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4,175
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,100
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12,702


    The above numbers amount to 53 gold unc coins, 70 single gold prf coins, and 218 3-coin prf sets, for a total of 288 prf gold coins and 53 unc gold coins sold, which is more than double the numbers sold in the previous week!

    I suspect that the unusually high sales this week were due to these sales piggybacking off those of the 2016 centennial gold standing liberty quarter, which now amount to 53,378. Hopefully, this was just a one-time occurrence and will not happen in the following weeks (except perhaps with the gold walking liberty half dollar). I seriously doubt that my posts in this thread have influenced more people to buy the gold NPS coins--especially since sales of the prf coins still overwhelm the unc by more than a 5:1 ratio, and I have been promoting specifically the unc coins.

    In my earlier post, I gave the idea that I was ready to buy product 16CB. That idea remains unchanged, but judging by today's price action in gold, there is a non-trivial chance that we may move into the next lower price bracket. So I will just sit tight and watch the next event happen...
     
  17. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Certainly a good idea, but more than likely you are not the only one who has come up with it. Commemorative coins are more predictable in that sales generally end at the end of the manufacturing year - their date to go off sale is usually well known well in advance of it happening. Therefore if the mintage is extraordinarily low many will typically jump on it right at the end, hoping to create a windfall for themselves. This usually has the effect of driving up mintage and driving down prices. Typically the coins that are taken off sale without announcement are the ones that really pop in the aftermarket. The best advice I can give for buying gold coins from the mint is to buy what you like - then if the price does not appreciate at least you have a coin you like. Good luck out there.
     
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  18. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I also suspect that more late buying will happen in the case of the National Park coin, but I feel prepared for it. If sales will indeed stop at the end of year 2016, I think this is good news for the coin, as my earlier estimates were based on sales ending in Q1 of 2017 (not true).

    In order to get an idea of how the final numbers may look, I looked at the sales numbers for $5 gold unc coins sold by the Mint during years 2012, 2013, and 2015 (the recent low-mintage years). For each issue, I recorded the sales number in the middle of the months from September to December, along with the final sales number. Here are the numbers:

    2012 Unc Star Spangled
    mid sep 4,345
    mid oct 4,580
    mid nov 5,126
    mid dec 6,553
    mid jan 7,027

    2013 Unc 5-star Generals
    mid sep 4,175
    mid oct 4,430
    mid nov 4,603
    mid dec 5,225
    mid jan 5,658

    2015 Unc US Marshals
    mid sep 6,044
    mid oct 6,155
    mid nov 6,403
    mid dec 6,592
    mid jan 6,743

    In 2 out of the 3 issues shown above, the difference between the final numbers and those of mid-September were less than 1500. Only with the 2012 coin did the final number exceed that of mid-September by more than 1500, and the actual difference was 2682.

    Both the 2012 and 2013 coins had sales numbers in the low 4k range by mid-September. Why, then, did the mintage of the 2013 coin increase much less after mid-September than the 2012 coin? Two reasons might explain this. One, is that buyers in 2013 might have anticipated the possibility of the mintage climbing quickly in the final months (like the 2012 coin), so they refrained from buying at the end. Another reason may be that since spot gold dropped between September 2012 and December 2012, buyers were encouraged by the lower coin prices, but not so much in 2013.

    Whatever the reason may be, the 2012 coin looks like a high-end estimate of how much the mintage may increase by the end of the year. If the National Park coin increases by the same number, it would end in the 5700s, which is still a very low ending mintage.

    One reason why I believe the remaining sales of the National Park coin will be more like the 2013 coin than the 2012 is that year 2016 features both the Mark Twain coin and the National Park coin, which means that both coins must compete for sales. Both the Mark Twain and National Park coins still have low mintage numbers, and buyers looking for low mintage coins will have a good choice with either one, but sales of both coins will be limited by the funds available to each buyer.

    Looking at the 2015 coin as an example, which had 6k sales by mid-September, buyers seem to have been discouraged by the relatively high sales number in mid-September, but as a result the coin was able to end at a lower mintage than the 2012 coin. The Mark Twain coin seems to be in a similar position, with current sales in the low 5k range, and competing sales with the National Park coin.

    2016 Mark Twain
    mid sep 5,283

    2016 National Park
    mid sep 3,047

    I think that both the Mark Twain coin and the National Park coin have good prospects for ending with very low mintage, but your point is well taken. It is not certain that the National Park coin will break the mintage record (or even end lower than the Mark Twain coin, for that matter). For this reason, I might decide to buy 4 National Park coins and 1 Mark Twain coin, instead of 5 National Park coins.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2016
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  19. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Starter, I've read this thread from time to time, with no real opinion, but your last few posts piqued my attention.

    I've been looking at a certain commemorative since it was issued by the Mint. I didn't buy it then, but I will say the opportunity to pick up a 70 of it is worth considering now that the hype has died down. And that price is now close to the original issue price or sometimes lower.

    Sorry, I can't tell you what one until I buy it. I don't want to be bidding against you.:surrender:
     
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  20. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If that coin is the 2014-w Baseball Hall of Fame $5 gold coin, then have no fear.

    Last month, I just settled for a MS 69 example of the coin, at a price of 357.79 dollars, or 60 dollars below the issue price (forgive me if going for lower-graded coins seems unorthodox...).
     
  21. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    No it's not.

    And it not unorthodox to go for 69's either. I have cracked out 69's and resubmitted them and sometimes they come back as 70's. Though the percentage is low. It's still fun.
     
  22. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I won't press you on which coin you mean.

    Looking at mintage and recent prices, though, I am pretty sure it is not the 2013 Unc 5-star Generals coin. This is one coin that is out of my reach at the moment, with typical auction prices higher than 600 dollars and having mintage only a few hundred above the 1997 Unc Jackie Robinson coin, which typically sells at around 2000 dollars, when graded at MS 70.

    The 5-star Generals coin is the benchmark for my planned purchases of the 2016 coins later this year. I expect the National Park coin to end with mintage below the 5-star Generals coin and possibly even the Jackie Robinson coin as well. The Mark Twain coin, with current numbers already in the 5k range, is still worth considering because remaining sales will more likely be with the National Park coin due the current mintage being more attractive.

    Next year, after I have bought and graded 5 of these coins from the Mint (probably 4 National Park and 1 Mark Twain coin), I will have room in my budget for 2 more coins, for which I will choose between the Liberty half eagle coins, the 2017 Boys Town coin (depending on the mintage), and any other good opportunities like the one you are considering.
     
  23. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    You make an interesting point in post 96 & 98 regarding total mintage but do commeratives follow the 'low mintage' game in terms of desirability?

    Generally, I feel that commeratives fall into the less than desirable bucket and often sell for spot or less than after awhile. Even the 69's don't garner much premium, but it is nice to have the protection & validity of grading. Especially if one can get it without having to pay for it (the grading). But does it do anything more?

    Am I missing something?
     
  24. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I think gold commemorative coins definitely follow the low mintage game, but there seems to be a threshold where low mintage starts to kick in, and not all years of coins use the same threshold.

    For example, it appears that the 2013 coin, with a mintage in the 5k range, has definitely broken the threshold of mintage into the higher value range. The 2012 and 2015 coins still have mintage near 7k, but these 2 coins are not quite there yet in price. Later on, as the years go by, this mintage threshold may go higher, allowing the 2012 and 2015 coins to increase in value. This will happen once those with excess inventory of these coins complete releasing their inventory, thus allowing the scarcity of these coins to be realized.

    The 2016 National Park coin looks like it has high chances of ending with lower mintage than the 2013, and it also has good desirability looking at the proof coin sales (which have already exceeded the Mark Twain, despite the uncirculated coin sales being lower). So I think it likewise has good chances of following in the footsteps of the 2013 coin in terms of value as well as mintage.

    The older coins seem to enjoy a relaxed threshold for their mintage versus value. For example, the 2001 coin, Capitol Visitor, has a mintage of 6,761 (higher than both the 2013 and 2015 coins, and near the 2012 coin), but its value is much higher than the 2012 and 2015 coins, and slightly higher than the 2013. I believe it is because many collectors have not yet appreciated the low mintage of the newer coins, especially the 2012 and 2015 coins. The 1997 and 2001 coins have occupied 1st and 2nd place in low mintage for many years, thereby gaining a reputation as true collector's items. The newer low mintage coins, except for the 2013 one, have not yet gained that reputation, but I believe they will do so gradually, at the expense of the 2001 coin, as more collectors begin to appreciate the low mintage and dealers release their excess inventory.

    For the 69 coins near spot, the free grading is definitely an advantage when you buy them at this price. The numismatic value may come into play if more collectors collect these coins in the future, but I do not anticipate it to happen soon. I think the MS 69 baseball gold coin is an exception, though, as the uniqueness of its physical shape brings higher demand to the coin. Likewise for low mintage coins where MS 69 coins still have significant premium over spot.

    Even some 70 coins have low premium for their grade, but it is usually due to a particular issue having a high mintage. Generally speaking, the older coins have higher mintage, and coins from years 2011 and onward have lower mintage. For the newer coins, the mintage threshold for higher value is tougher, but these coins are still typically more valuable than the older coins with high mintage.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2016
  25. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    With regard to the 2012 and 2015 gold unc coins in particular, I believe these two coins are in a temporary dip caused by the hype of the 2016 centennial gold coins and the attractive mintage of the National Park and Mark Twain coins this year, not to mention the proof sales of both these commems.

    Next year, the 2017 Boys Town coin seems to be the only gold commem to be minted in the year, and its mintage will very likely be higher than both the NPS and Mark Twain coins. By that time, a lot of the hype from the centennial gold coins might dissipate, and I anticipate upward movement in the prices of the 2012 and 2015 gold unc coins, due to their low mintage. If the Boys Town ends with higher mintage than the 2012 and 2015--somewhat likely, especially since 2017 will not feature any centennial gold coins or first spouse coins--I think we can look forward to the 2012 and 2015 coins moving up even more in value, as collectors will then have more reason to appreciate their low mintage.

    My comments in these 2 posts (104 and 105) mostly apply to the Unc gold coins. Some collectors prefer the Prf coins (even I have one myself). For the Prf coins, the threshold for the higher value range is more relaxed (that is, higher mintage allowed), but the ceiling of possible prices in the higher value range is lower than the Unc coins (understandably so, as Prf mintage numbers are typically much higher).
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2016
  26. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    With gold commems, the Unc and Prf coins basically have two separate markets, as collectors tend to prefer one or the other. I focus on the Unc coins, although I have one Prf coin in my collection.

    In the 8 months of my time collecting these coins (with a break of about 2 months), I have learned some information about the market for the Unc coins. I like to divide the coins into 2 eras: the old era, covering years 1986 to 2002, and the new era, covering years 2006 to 2016. The old era coins tend to have higher mintage (with the exception of the 1997 Jackie Robinson coin), but this is offset by a smaller percentage of coins graded MS 70. The new era coins tend to have lower mintage, but with a higher percentage of coins graded MS 70.

    In the old era gold commems, there is one key coin:

    1997-w Jackie Robinson
    mintage 5,174

    ...and there are several semi-key coins:

    1995-w Olympics Stadium
    mintage 10,579

    1996-w Olympics Cauldron
    mintage 9,210

    1996-w Olympics Flag
    mintage 9,174

    1996-w Smithson
    mintage 9,068

    2001-w Capitol
    mintage 6,761

    In the new era gold commems, there is one key coin:

    2013-P 5-Star Generals MacArthur
    mintage 5,658

    ...and there are several semi-key coins:

    2011-P Medal of Honor
    mintage 8,251

    2011-P Army
    mintage 8,062

    2012-W Star Spanged Banner
    mintage 7,027

    2014-W Baseball Hall of Fame
    mintage 17,677 (high mintage, but high demand as well)

    2015-W US Marshals
    mintage 6,743

    The old era key and semi-key coins have significantly higher premium than the new era key and semi-key coins, despite having higher mintage in some cases. According to my observations on eBay, the old era key and semi-key coins go for about 2000 dollars and 750 dollars at MS 70, roughly speaking, and the new era key and semi-key coins go for about 650 dollars and 425 dollars at MS 70, roughly speaking.

    By these numbers, one will want any new issue gold commems to be on par with the 2013 5-Star Generals coin, in order to justify the Mint's issue price (otherwise, it's probably more economical to buy the coins on the secondary market, where the grading cost is counted along with the coin). For this reason, mintage numbers for the current year are very important. It is quite possible that after the 2016 mintage numbers are finalized, the new era key coins will include both 2016 coins as well as the 2013 coin.

    Of course, as I said earlier, the above info applies only to the Unc coins, and the Prf coins belong to an entirely different market.
     
  27. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Mint sales reports for today...

    http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_min...istics/index.cfm?PageNum=1&StartRow=1&i=1&#CM


    9/11/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4,175
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,100
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12,702

    9/18/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4,226
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,129
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12,787


    That means new sales of 29 for the National Park unc, 85 for the 3-coin set, and 51 for the single prf, for a total of 136 prf and 29 unc coins minted, or a combined total of 165 gold coins. This confirms my earlier belief that the previous week's sales got a temporary boost from the release of the centennial gold quarter. The ratio of prf to unc for the NPS coins this week is 4.6 to 1.

    So far, up through the 3rd mintage report of September, there is no sign of a buying spree for the NPS unc gold coin, though we still may see one emerge later. Interestingly, the NPS prf coin might be starting to see a buying spree instead. This may be partly due to the relatively late release of the coin series (in March, rather than January), and most buyers from the Mint actually prefer the prf coin.

    Might as well show the numbers for Mark Twain as well:

    9/11/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CH 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD PROOF 12,254
    Commemoratives 16CJ 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD UNC 5,300

    9/18/16 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CH 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD PROOF 12,286
    Commemoratives 16CJ 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD UNC 5,308

    That means new sales of 8 for the Mark Twain unc and 32 for the Mark Twain prf. Here we don't see any sign of a buying spree for either the unc or prf Mark Twain coins.

    Total combined sales of prf and unc gold coins of both series are 20,142 for NPS and 17,594 for Mark Twain. Looking at these sales, it is now evident that the NPS 3-coin set is a great marketing tool for the Mint, bringing in big numbers for the NPS prf gold coin--very good news for the unc coin, as its mintage remains unaffected. During the buying spree of the 2012 gold unc, there was only a 2-coin set available to buyers of the prf coin (as year 2012 did not offer a clad half dollar commem), and it ended with sales of only 11,899, compared to 7,027 for the 2012 unc.

    It now seems that the buying spree of the NPS 3-coin set that seems to be taking place in recent weeks may be taking away the potential for a buying spree of the NPS unc gold coin. After another month of sales or so, I am sure we will get a better picture of the situation, but I wouldn't be surprised if my hunch is confirmed.
     
  28. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    A few weeks ago, I indicated that I would be looking into making my purchase of gold coins from the Mint. During that time, I watched gold fight through a dip to 1308, but today it has recovered to 1339.

    Tonight, I will make the decision of whether to buy these coins right away or to wait a bit longer. I have decided to split my purchase into two orders, so that I will have more flexibility on when to make the 2nd order. This is because I am still deciding on whether the 5th coin should be a National Park or a Mark Twain unc gold coin. If I make the 1st order today, I will be looking at making the 2nd order around late November.

    The benchmark is the 2013 5-Star Generals unc gold coin, which has a mintage of 5658. The 2016 Mark Twain is still 350 below that number, which translates to 43 weeks of sales at the current rate of sales for the 2016 Mark Twain. So barring a increase in this rate, we can expect Mark Twain to finish with lower mintage than the 2013 5-Star Generals.

    The 2016 National Park, with current mintage of 3129, has a wider margin of mintage under the benchmark, so it is still the clear favorite of the 2016 commems. To decide on the 5th coin, however, would best be done knowing the mintage numbers from today to late November, or a period of 2 months.

    For my 1st order, I will be buying just 3 National Park unc gold coins and my annual clad ATB proof quarter set, whose Mint catalog links are shown below:

    http://catalog.usmint.gov/100th-ann...rvice-2016-5-gold-uncirculated-coin-16CB.html

    http://catalog.usmint.gov/america-the-beautiful-quarters-2016-proof-set-16AP.html


    Like I wrote earlier, these 5 gold coins are part of my budget going into next year. This would leave 2 more gold coins for next year.
     
  29. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    I looked to see what I was missing historically for buying and holding these gold commemoratives on ebay. I don't see it, after grading and selling fees. I don't think there's enough collectors to keep the price above the mint issue price, unless spot goes up - in which case, you should have bought bullion.

    The initial frenzy puts money in the sellers pocket for low mintage limits and coins that seem to have unique collector characteristics. Even then, it can be a crap shoot. I'm loaded with 10 sets of 2012 75th anniversary eagle sets. As cheap as $120 on ebay and apmex can only get $14 profit on them from issue price. The 2011's are still OK, but I would have been better off selling all those sets of both years during the hype. Way more collectors of eagles and sometimes it only takes a guy buying a few rolls of fresh ones to start picking up an example of each year, like my brother. Market still can't keep the collector version above issue price, in many instances.

    I should have sold all 20 of my merc gold dimes instead of keeping 4. I just bought an SP70 with box for $225 after ebay bucks, just to compare to my raw coins.

    If you could list off any modern gold commemoratives that are selling on ebay reasonably well above their issue price and covers the fees, I'm all ears. Coins that sell for more because of the increase in spot need to also cover the initial premium, as a percentage to compare to buying bullion. As far as coins grading 70, I could see some selling for decent profit, but nothing really stood out except the $100 gold eagle.

    I'm all for making money, but I don't see it.
     
  30. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I agree that when buying from the Mint, one needs to be very selective and careful to pick the right coins.

    The one benchmark from the last 5 years I use for my comparisons is the 2013-P 5-star generals unc gold coin. Sales of MS 70 NGC and PCGS coins of this issue have gone consistently in the 600s, as seen in the below links:

    http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odk...13-p+5-star+generals+gold+ms+70+pcgs&_sacat=0

    http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odk...013-p+5-star+generals+gold+ms+70+ngc&_sacat=0


    The issue price of this coin in 2013 was about 400 dollars, with some variation due to spot gold moving during the year. The issue price of 400 dollars was the price at the end of year 2013. I guess fees would take away about 110 from the sale, leaving 519 dollars for the coin that sold for 629. That comes out to about 119 dollars of profit (I haven't gone through the entire sale process yet, so this number might be slightly off). At the peak of gold during the year, the issue price of the coin was about 480 dollars.

    During that year, spot gold varied from the 1600s to the 1200s. Compared to buyers of gold bullion who bought at 1600, I would say this coin probably did well. The issue price at the peak of gold was 480. The same amount of generic gold at 1600 spot would cost 387 dollars, but it would be worth only 323 dollars today, for a loss of 64 dollars. In comparison, buying the 2013 5-star generals gold unc coin would cost 480 (at 1600 spot) and be sold today for 629, minus 110 in fees, for a net profit of 39 dollars, or a relative gain of 103 dollars compared to bullion.

    If generic bullion was bought at 1200 spot, the cost would be 290, and the generic round would be worth 323 dollars today, for a gain of 33 dollars. In comparison, buying the 2013 gold unc would have gained 119 dollars (as mentioned above), or a relative gain of 86 dollars compared to bullion.

    So these two data points for buying the coin at the low and high points of spot gold in 2013 show a relative gain of 103 dollars when buying at 1600 spot and 86 dollars at 1200 spot, compared to bullion.

    This 2013 5-star generals coin had a mintage of 5658. The 2016 issues are National Park and Mark Twain, with current mintage numbers of 3129 and 5308. Both of these issues are well-positioned to end the year with lower mintage than the 5-star generals coin.

    If I didn't see these coins ending with mintage below the 2013 gold unc coin, I wouldn't be recommending them.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
  31. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    I look at the low price, not the high. $525 buy it now with 10 available. You also gotta hope your submittals get 70. A couple sold below $450. Too much risk, too little reward, IMO.
     
  32. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I am not sure which listing you are referring to here. The links from my previous post refer to the 2013 coin in MS 70. The one NGC coin sold had a price of 629, and the PCGS coins mostly sold in the 600s, with a few outside that range (the average price of 5 PCGS coins at MS 70 was 653).

    The 2016 NPS coin is not far behind, but its price is handicapped because it is still available at the Mint. Here is my search for the 2016 NPS coin, for the ones still available:

    http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odk..._nkw=2016-w+national+park+gold+ms+70&_sacat=0

    These show prices of 635 for the available 2016 NPS coins in MS 70.

    The ones that were sold recently:

    http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=2016-w national park gold ms 70&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc&_trksid=p2045573.m1684

    These sold out at 520 about a month ago but are no longer available at this price, by my searches. One coin also sold at 635.

    Of course, the coin is still available at the Mint, so many of the collectors are buying there instead of eBay. One can wonder what might happen after the coin is discontinued, especially if the ending mintage is still very low...
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
  33. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    I did lump proof with unc and I think there's collector competition between the 2 because both were intended as collectibles and never intended to be circulated. Just kind of a pet peeve of mine, just like grading bullion always irked me.

    I did however see one of your unc generals go for $480 (albeit, ANACS).

    As far as the NPS unc, buy it nows were balked at earlier this month at $550 so I would hardly consider getting $635 to be a realistic price. He sold 7 and his last 3 on record only sold for $535. The cheapest proof was $404 - and that was a graded 70, too. I'd start collecting proofs, given that differential.

    I like better hints about resale before investing premium dollars. Merc gold, Liberty medals, SL gold quarter were no brainers this year with little risk (automatic bounties, the medals I passed the bounty and sold for better money). After the 5 ounce Hawaii silver unc became unavailable and jumping in price, I bought 5 each of the other 4 left for that year.

    I may be wrong about the demand for these and I hope you profit by it. Keep us in the loop.
     
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  34. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Correct, the vendor with price of 635 for the 2016 NPS coin only sold at 535, but recently raised his price to 635. The search results show the price as 635 because the same vendor who sold at 535 has a current price for the coin at 635.

    Even so, I believe that the vendors' decisions to set their current prices at 635 and above is a good sign for this coin. Perhaps they are also looking at the current mintage and anticipating the price to rise when the coin is discontinued. So they have decided to refuse to sell unless buyers accept the higher price, in order to keep their coins for the anticipated price rise.

    I also believe that these vendors are using the 2013 coin as a benchmark for determining their current price for the 2016 NPS coin. By my estimation, the coin has a good chance of ending with considerably lower mintage than the 2013 coin. My projected ending mintage for the 2016 NPS coin is 4600, or about 1k below the mintage of the 2013 coin.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
  35. Dude

    Dude Midas Member Midas Member

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    Did you buy any yet?
     
  36. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I want to watch the price of gold for a while for any apparent signs of a dip. There is a remote chance that gold dips into the 1250 to 1300 range, possibly causing the Mint to lower their prices.

    Once the coast looks clear, I plan to make my 1st order of 3 of the 2016 NPS unc gold coins.

    As of Monday morning, the outlook of gold looks a shade better than it did on Sunday night. I guess I will be preparing to make my 1st order of the coins tonight.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
  37. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Order completed!

    America the Beautiful Quarters 2016 Proof Set
    SAN FRANCISCO (S)
    $14.95 Qty 1 Total: $14.95

    100th Anniversary of the National Park Service 2016 $5 Gold Uncirculated Coin
    WEST POINT (W)
    $424.75 Qty 3 Total: $1,274.25

    Amount: $1,294.15
    Items (4) Subtotal:$1,289.20
    Shipping & Handling: $4.95
    Order Total:$1,294.15

    As mentioned earlier, I still need to make another order in order to fulfill my goal to purchase 5 gold unc commems from 2016.

    I am deciding between 2 more NPS gold unc coins or 1 NPS and 1 MT gold unc coin.

    If the price of gold reaches the next bracket of 1350 to 1400, I better decide soon, in order to avoid paying the higher price. Otherwise, I will just watch the mintage numbers and eBay prices to see whether the Mark Twain coin is also worth a buy.
     
  38. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Mint sales reports for 9/25/2016...


    9/18/2016 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CH 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD PROOF 12,286
    Commemoratives 16CJ 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD UNC 5,308
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4,226
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3,129
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12,787

    9/25/2016 cumulative sales:
    Commemoratives 16CH 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD PROOF 12325
    Commemoratives 16CJ 2016 MARK TWAIN GOLD UNC 5314
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4256
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 3146
    Commemoratives 16CG 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE 3-COIN SET 12901


    That makes 17 more coins sold for NPS gold unc and 6 more coins sold for MT gold unc.

    For gold prf, it is 144 more coins sold for NPS gold prf and 39 more coins sold for MT gold prf.

    As usual, sales for the NPS prf coins were boosted by the 3-coin set, with the prf-to-unc ratio being 8.4 to 1 for NPS and 6.5 to 1 for MT.

    Meanwhile, the centennial standing liberty gold quarter recorded 20462 more coins sold over the last week. These coins, along with the upcoming centennial walking liberty gold half dollar, will continue the limit the funds of potential buyers of the NPS and MT coins.

    Two more weeks of sales will give us a better picture on whether more coin shops and dealers will begin to snap up the low mintage NPS gold uncs. As of today, there is still no sign of a faster buying pace of this coin.

    My order at the Mint is still in Processing status, even though the purchase was made almost 2 days ago. I guess they are probably waiting for this week's batch of coins to be minted, before they are ready to ship them!
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
  39. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The coins arrived today!

    I must say that I was not impressed by the packaging for these commemorative coins. Anyway, the important thing is that the right coins arrived, and I plan to send these coins to NGC to be slabbed and graded...that is, after I have bought the other 2 coins of the 5-coin group I will be sending in.

    And now, a picture of the 3 gold coins...


    IMG_20161003_153932987.jpg
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Oct 3, 2016
  40. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Is there any reason why you collect the ATB Proof set and not the Silver Proof set? Or is it just because of the $.

    I collect the Silver Proof set so I was just wondering.
     

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