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Small US Gold Coins

Discussion in 'PM's - Coins - Numis - Base Metals' started by Starter, Mar 5, 2016.



  1. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    12/18/16 mint report:
    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4743
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 4113
     
  2. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Only 129 more than the previous week for the NPS Gold Unc! Looks like we are probably headed for a record!

    By the way, the Proof numbers are misleading, as they do not count the coins included in the 3-coin set. This would add 14283 to the total mintage of the NPS Gold Proof.
     
  3. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Good point, I forgot about that. As you say the imminent price drop should spur sales this week. At the same time sales around Christmas/New Year week have tended to be poor for all mint products in years past. It's anyone's guess.
     
  4. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If I am not mistaken, people are still falling head over heels for the Centennial Gold Walking Liberty Half Dollar and Standing Liberty Quarter, taking a lot of steam away from any sales surge for the NPS Gold Unc.

    If you really believe in the NPS Gold Unc and have cash to spare, this may be the opportunity of a lifetime.
     
  5. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I might go easy on 'opportunity of a lifetime'. Since Jackie R. and the other commems like the gold/plat bi-metallic flew high (nearly $5k at one point), other coins like spouses and plats have completely changed the definition of low-mintage, which is what the legacy commems like Jackie rode to prominence on. I'm not certain of the future of the $5/$10 commem market but I do enjoy speculation & looking back on predictions, so cheers.
     
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  6. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The price of the NPS Gold Unc (and Mark Twain Gold Unc) is now $376.15.

    If gold somehow plunges even further, there is still a possibility of an additional price drop in effect from 12/28 to 12/29, but I wouldn't bet on it.
     
  7. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Order completed again!


    100th Anniversary of the National Park Service 2016 $5 Gold Uncirculated Coin
    WEST POINT (W)
    $376.15 Qty 1 Total: $376.15


    This time I ordered only one coin, in order to minimize the possibility of the same defect appearing on different coins in the same shipment, even if it means paying an additional 4.95 in shipping.

    As we are nearing the end of the production cycle for this coin issue, there probably won't be an opportunity to repurchase replacement coins this time, if there happen to be defects.
     
  8. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Gold Chaser

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    Big premiums on these, especially better dates type I and type II:

    One I have: [​IMG]
     
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  9. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    A touch of reality from the past, HC probably remembers this article from Nov 11, 2012

    http://news.coinupdate.com/lowest-mintage-modern-commemorative-gold-coins-1697/

    The relatively subdued secondary market response may signal a change in perception for for recently released low mintage gold coins. Collectors may justifiably carry the expectation that subsequent issues will have even lower mintages, continually undercutting the status of any recent release. As a case in point, this year’s uncirculated 2012-W Star Spangled Banner $5 Gold Coin has only sold 4,638 coins to date (11/12/12). Unless there is an unexpected surge in sales in the coming weeks, this issue will end up with a mintage well below last year’s issues and may even rival the mintage low of the 1997 Jackie Robinson Gold Coin.

    The Star Spangled Banner ended up selling 7006 coins.
     
  10. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    My 2nd return has completed processing!

    Now it's time to get ready for the final purchase of the year. I might want to wait a few days so that the next NPS Gold Unc is not packaged immediately after the one I ordered last night, in order to spread out the risk of defects.
     
  11. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Very familiar with the history of the 2012-W coin, where over 2,000 coins were sold in the last 3 months. Sales were exceeding the 500s during some of the weeks in Nov 2012, but we aren't seeing anything close to that for the 2016 NPS coin.

    If your first statement is correct, it just makes it more likely that the NPS coin will break the low-mintage record this year.
     
  12. Fjpod

    Fjpod Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Picked up an xf+ $5 gold lib today $284....lcs
     
  13. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    A great coin to buy, as long as you know it is genuine.

    You are lucky to have that kind of LCS.
     
  14. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Having successfully sent two return packages by myself, I am now open to the idea of submitting the coins to NGC on my own.

    I can choose to pay a $149 membership fee and receive a $150 credit, or pay a $39 fee without receiving a credit. The $150 credit mathematically works out well when sending 7 coins in the Modern tier with scratch-resistant holder. This would use up 7 * (16 + 5) = 147 dollars of the credit. My gold budget for 2016-17 barely allows for buying 7 NPS Gold Unc coins (including the 4 I already bought).

    At this point in time, I am proud to say that I have kicked the habit of searching for gold coins on eBay. Nowadays, I am using eBay only to check the price of the NPS Gold Unc coin, which was last sold at MS70 for the price of $625 (as for the current price, dealers have recently pulled the coin from sale in anticipation of a price hike).

    If I do decide to increase my count of the NPS Gold Unc coin to 7, it means that I will wait until year 2018 before buying more half eagles again. Perhaps I can spend some time in 2017 learning the ropes of submitting to NGC and selling on eBay. Maybe I can do a few sales of raw specimens of the NPS Clad Unc, which is another coin I am now considering buying.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2016
  15. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    On second thought, the idea of sending 7 gold half eagles in one package to NGC makes me a little nervous (even with insurance). Perhaps I should scale back to 5 coins, after all.

    One option that just popped in my head is to buy several NPS Clad Unc coins, and then pick the best 3 coins from that group to send along with 5 NPS Gold Unc coins, making a total of 8 coins to be submitted for grading. Only the Gold Unc coins would get the scratch-resistant holder, making the cost 5 * (16 + 5) + 3 * 16 = 153.

    Part of the challenge would then be to pick the best 3 NPS Clad Unc coins in the group, assuming of course that I would be sending all 5 NPS Gold Unc coins in my possession. I could then use the remaining ungraded NPS Clad Unc coins as practice for selling on eBay.

    At current prices, 1 NPS Gold Unc coin costs as much as 15 NPS Clad Unc coins. Maybe I can buy 15 of them and send in 3 for grading...actually 10 of them would probably be enough for this purpose.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2016
  16. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I have decided it will be 5 NPS Gold Unc and 15 NPS Clad Unc coins (including the ones I bought already).

    I believe that both coins are good plays. This particular issue of Clad Unc has a higher than normal percentage of 70s at NGC, according to early population records, so it won't be terribly difficult to get a 70 with a Clad Unc. I think both coins will set mintage records in their respective series, and owners of 70s of either coin will be happy.

    I was also considering raising my count of NPS Gold Unc to 6 or 7, but I have decided against it simply due to the cost. With the NPS Clad Unc also poised to set a mintage record, I thought it would be a shame to pass up this opportunity. I can get 15 Clad coins for the price of 1 Gold coin, and why lower it to 10 coins when the cost is relatively low?
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2016
  17. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Gold Chaser

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    I've never had a problem shipping gold coins, or others, to NGC. Express overnight. One time I had gold go missing with the usps were the shipments of a couple gold eagles to Ron Paul for a speaking engagement shipped priority, non-express, well wrapped but the thieves must have suspected something.

    I am an NGC dealer so get the best price on submissions. On selling on ebay afterwards I would not do auctions there now as they are generally losers for many numismatics. Research what your items are selling for on ebay, you can go back 90 days.
     
  18. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I hope Ron Paul didn't get angry at you!

    I definitely plan to use the Buy It Now option for selling on eBay, as this is a long-term play. It will be very interesting to see how high these NPS Unc coins sell on eBay, especially if they break the low mintage records.
     
  19. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Gold Chaser

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  20. Krag

    Krag Planet earth Gold Chaser

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    Actually I had to pay him twice (with gold) as promised.
     
  21. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    NPS stands for National Park Service. This group of commemorative coins has really low mintage for the Unc varieties:

    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 4113 12/18/2016
    Commemoratives 16CD 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER UNC 20387 12/18/2016
    Commemoratives 16CF 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD UNC 18767 12/18/2016

    Both the Gold and Clad Unc coins are in position to set the low mintage record of their respective series. The Silver Unc also has very low mintage, but the issue price seems a bit too high.

    I don't want to risk doing an auction on eBay, but I would be happy to set a fixed price (Buy It Now) that is high enough for my price expectations. This is an easier goal when selling coins that have very low mintage.
     
  22. sleepyweasel

    sleepyweasel New Member

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    Just wanted to say thank you for your post and insight, I have been reading and following for the last month and decided to sign up.
    I have been a buyer of bullion and some sovereigns but have never purchased commemorative or collectible coins. After reading and researching I think I am about to make a purchase.
    In regards to the NPS gold, why not spend the extra 5 bucks and get a proof coin? Is it because of the mintage numbers you speak of?

    Thanks Again!
     
  23. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    In a word, yes.

    The NPS Gold Proof coin has more than 4 times as high a mintage as the NPS Gold Unc coin, due to the availability of the 3-coin Proof set. Many buyers are drawn to the slight discount of buying all 3 Proof coins in one set, which is good for those who want to buy the coins as keepsakes.

    For real collector value and resale potential in the secondary market, though, I think the very low mintage of the NPS Gold Unc coin will carry it well in the secondary market.
     
  24. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I just found a reason to lower the count of my NPS Clad Unc coins from 15 to 10.

    The raw Clad Unc coins often don't sell very well on eBay, even when the mintage is low. I don't know the exact reason, but it may be due to low expectations for raw coins to be graded at MS70. For example, many of the raw 2015-d Marshals coins sold below their issue price, even though the mintage is very low, at 30k.

    I guess the real collectors want the rare Clad Unc coins to be graded at MS70, and this is why some of the MS70 Clad Unc coins sell over $100. For this reason, it seems that the best way to put the raw Clad Unc coins to good use is to send them in for grading.

    If my plan is to send 3 NPS Clad Unc coins for grading, then maybe I should buy about 10 of them to have a realistic chance for the coins to be graded at MS70. Buying more raw coins may increase my chances of getting 70s, but it also increases my costs.

    So it is a delicate balance between buying more coins to have better chances of getting 70s (for a given number of graded coins), versus buying fewer coins to reduce total costs.

    For the sake of keeping things simple and avoiding the nuances mentioned above, I mostly prefer to stick with my main choice of coin, the gold half eagle...
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2016
  25. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    One more adjustment in the numbers for my NPS coins to be purchased...

    At this point, I think my final counts will be 6 NPS Gold Unc and 6 NPS Clad Unc coins.

    First of all, for the sake of limiting the risk of defects, I should try not to buy too many coins of one issue in a single shipment (I learned this lesson when I found similar defects on 3 NPS Gold Unc coins and then returned them). With 4 NPS Gold Unc coins already bought, I can then buy the remaining 2 NPS Gold Unc and 6 NPS Clad Unc coins in two shipments, instead of buying 1 NPS Gold Unc and 10 NPS Clad Unc coins in one shipment.

    Second of all, I am more confident in the NPS Gold Unc coin, as it is more familiar territory for me. And Gold coins have a better history than Clad coins for grading 70s, in general.

    Once I have all of my coins, unless one of the new Gold Unc coins has obvious defects, I will then prepare to send in 6 Gold Unc and 2 Clad Unc coins for grading.
     
  26. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    About that 2012-w Star Spangled Banner coin, I have a feeling it will go down in price next year, due to falling behind in the mintage race compared to the 2015-w US Marshals, 2016-w Mark Twain, and 2016-w National Park Service coins.

    I also believe that if the NPS coin sets the new low mintage record, it will have a piggyback effect on the secondary market values of the 2016-w Mark Twain and 2015-w US Marshals coins, at the expense of the 2012-w Star Spanged Banner coin, which still sells high on the market for its mintage.

    If I turn out to be right on this prediction, then I may be looking to buy the 2012-w coin next year, if the price is right...
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2016
  27. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I can't "see" the gain in clad coins, but I concede to better minds (e.g. HC) when it comes to certain coinage strategies.

    I can't bring myself to pay a premium for anything clad.
     
  28. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    To be honest, I don't see it myself either, at this point.

    But I like to try new things, as long as the risk is not big, and the idea of having low mintage Gold and Clad Unc coins sounds nice.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2016
  29. sleepyweasel

    sleepyweasel New Member

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  30. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Today (12-29) at noon.
     
  31. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Poof. At exactly 12:00

    "We're sorry, but the page you were looking for has moved or is no longer available."
     
  32. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    My total inventory for the NPS coins, after all orders are completed, will be 6 Gold Unc and 6 Clad Unc.

    Waiting for 2 gold coins to arrive now...
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2016
  33. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    UPS is running over me.

    I have 2 tracking numbers. I have 1 attempted delivery receipt that says 2 packages scribbled in pen.

    I redirected both tracking numbers to the local UPS depot for pickup. The redirecting acceptance time for the 2 packages were 7:15 & 7:18.

    The package done at 7:18 is waiting at the depot. The package done at 7:15 is out for delivery .....
     
  34. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I routed one of my deliveries to the UPS Customer Center and accepted another delivery at my home.

    It is not always easy to get those packages when you want them...
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2016
  35. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Here is the mintage report for 12/25/2016:

    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 4459 12/26/2016
    Commemoratives 16CD 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE SILVER UNC 20621 12/26/2016
    Commemoratives 16CF 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CLAD UNC 19648 12/26/2016

    As shown by the numbers above, 346 NPS Gold Unc coins were sold in the week from 12/19 to 12/25.

    The mintage game that has come to the forefront within the last 4 weeks is the race between the 2016 NPS Gold Unc coin and the 1997 Jackie Robinson Gold Unc coin, which ended with mintage of 5174.

    Since sales of the NPS coins ended at noon on 12/29, there remain about half a week of sales that have not yet been reported by the Mint. If we use the last week of sales as a reference, the per day sales of the NPS Gold Unc coin that week were about 49.4 per day. Going by the same rate of sales per day, and assuming that 3.5 days of sales remain unreported, the projected final mintage of the NPS Gold Unc coin would be 4632, with 173 coins sold in the last half week. If this projection turned out to be correct, it would mean that the NPS coin beats the JR coin in mintage by 542 coins.

    Of course, increased awareness of this coin may have boosted sales in the final half week, but also keep in mind that these final days did not include any weekend days, and many buyers may also have been busy with the holiday season. Furthermore, any sign of increased awareness probably would have been seen in the week ending 12/25, especially considering that the week was marked by a decrease in gold coin prices at the Mint (for example, the preceding week only saw 129 more NPS Gold Unc coins sold).
     
  36. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Commemoratives 16CA 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD PROOF 4915 01/02/2017
    Commemoratives 16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 5201 01/02/2017

    Now if just 28 people will return their coins.......
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2017
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  37. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Well, the buyers who waited until the 12/26/2016 mintage report to be released probably wanted to keep the option to return their coins after seeing today's mintage report, so we may expect some returns to be done.

    The good thing to know is that the mintage number can only go down from now, but the bad thing is that we will need to wait another week to find out how far down...
     
  38. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    In the week following the end of sale for the 2013 5-Star Generals Gold Unc coin, 16 coins were returned after a final two weeks of sales of 162 coins (covering the weeks of 12/16/2013 to 12/29/2013), or about 10% of those coins.

    http://www.coinnews.net/2013/12/27/us-mint-sales-edith-wilson-coins-debut/
    http://www.coinnews.net/2014/01/03/us-mint-sales-updates-and-more-sold-out-products/
    http://www.coinnews.net/2014/01/09/us-mint-sales-gold-coins-quarters-firm-new-sold-out-totals/


    For the 2016 NPS coin, the final two weeks of sales totaled 1088 coins. If 10% of people from the last two weeks return their coins, it would amount to about 108 coins returned. Considering that the 2013 coin returns were probably not made due to mintage reports, the number of returns for the 2016 NPS coin may actually be at a higher percentage, because of the mintage race with the 1997 JR coin.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2017
  39. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It may turn into a game of chicken. It's so close everyone may be waiting for everyone else to blink first and return theirs. Worst case it's #2 or a semi-key. Now if all those who ordered multiples returned, just one, of their coins ....... there'd be a new key in town as opposed to an also ran.
     
  40. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    So Close!!:rage 1
     

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