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Small US Gold Coins

Discussion in 'PM's - Coins - Numis - Base Metals' started by Starter, Mar 5, 2016.



  1. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    In other news, the Mark Twain Gold Unc is at 5701, just slightly behind the 2013 5-Star Generals coin...

    Out of the 6 Gold Unc coins I ordered, I received the worst one yesterday, which had a rim nick on it. Looking at the current mintage numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if an NPS Gold Unc at MS69 fetches a higher premium than a Mark Twain Gold Unc at MS70, as the MT coin failed to overtake the 5-Star Generals coin. I now feel better that I decided to buy all NPS coins instead of mixing with MT.

    The coins are now ranked by mintage, as follows:

    1997 Jackie Robinson + 2016 National Park
    (undecided until return numbers come in)
    2013 5-Star Generals
    2016 Mark Twain
    2015 US Marshals
    2001 Capitol Visitor
    2012 Star Spangled Banner

    After now moving down to 7th place in the mintage ranking, I can definitely see the 2012 Star Spangled Banner coin (once a candidate for overtaking JR as late as Oct 2012) going down in price during the coming months...
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2017
  2. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Well, there will be at least two coins returned. I just received an order from the mint for eight total coins I had hoped to submit for grading. At least 5, and possibly six, were impaired. I'm pretty disgusted - back they all go for a refund.
     
  3. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The 2012 coin is only a small part of the picture that is unfolding. I see a large-scale readjustment in prices happening, based on the new issues from 2015 and 2016.

    The law of low mintage will prevail and boost the premiums of the 2016 National Park, 2016 Mark Twain, and 2015 US Marshals coins within the next several years. On the other hand, the premiums of the 1997 Jackie Robinson, 2013 5-Star Generals, 2001 Capitol Visitor, and 2012 Star Spangled Banner coins will retreat over the course of the same time period.
     
  4. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    newest mint report - showing 5198 for parks unc $5
     
  5. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It's a game of chicken. No one wants to send back a coin, that may become a key. But it may not become a key if no one sends back their extras.
     
  6. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    That's a disappointing number, for sure, but I have a feeling some buyers timed their purchases so they would still be eligible to return their coins after seeing today's sales report.

    Anyway, if I had bought fewer than 5 coins, I would have lost the Modern tier rate for grading at NGC.
     
  7. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Just some info from a few places. Grading populations as of 1/10/17

    Pcgs --- 69 -- 41 ..... 70 -- 206

    Ngc ---- 69 -- 5, ..... 70 -- 166

    Totals - 69 -- 46 .... 70 -- 372

    Total graded - 418
    % graded - 418/5198 = 8%

    89% of the coins submitted are 70's. ((372/418)x100)=88.995%
     
  8. birddog

    birddog Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  9. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Boys Town unveiling, including gold, silver, and clad coins...

    http://odc.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=5002&p=6736


    I might pass on the gold coin, as I think the mintage will be higher than last year's issues.

    The clad coin seems to have a good chance of going very low, however. Same with the silver.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2017
  10. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Moving along. 5180 now.
     
  11. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It's like pulling fingernails.....sheer torture.....
     
  12. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Opinion: Don't think we're gonna see it below Jackie. Not sure how much it matters in the near term though.
     
  13. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    ^^ Agree. If it didn't drop below Jackie now, why would it drop more next week? Isn't it too late for returns?
     
  14. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If this becomes the final mintage, then I underestimated it. But for many people, including me, the coin's success is tied to beating the mintage of the 5-Star Generals coin (in the 5600s), which it did so handily by a few hundred.

    Before the sales surge in late November, there was a genuine chance for the coin to beat not only the 5-Star Generals coin, but also the Jackie Robinson coin. Louis Golino wrote an article about that on Coin World, I believe, and that news may have given the coin just enough publicity to give the record back to Jackie Robinson.
     
  15. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    By the way, Golino thinks that the 2017 Boys Town coin has a chance to break the mintage record, but I disagree on the basis that it will be the only $5 gold commem of 2017, unlike the two $5 gold commems of 2016.
     
  16. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    By my estimation Jan. 13 would've been the last possible day for a returns to be filed, assuming a person waited to return their coin(s) at that last moment (7 days). The mint is known to take several days to actually register a return in their system so there may technically be a few returns out there, but it probably won't amount to many at all. I think next weeks report will show the last sales # we'll see.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2017
  17. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    ^^ Isn't it 7 days after receipt of coin? If I ordered on 12/29 and received 1/2, wouldn't I have 7 days to return?
    I don't understand where your date of 12/13 comes from when the last day to purchase was 12/29.
     
  18. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I ordered some more on 12/29 and rec'vd them 1/4. I figured 1/6 would've been about the last day anyone would'v e received theirs. Another 7 days from that is 1/13. Sorry I meant 1/13 not 12/13. Edited.
     
  19. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Imagine if a movie were made based on this coin. Are there any movies that can capture the thrill of coin collecting?

    I wonder how many people would watch it, though...
     
  20. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    So some guy on the pcgs forum claims he was able to return twelve of his coins today, since he was away and didn't sign for them until today. Says he confirmed the return with the mint and sent them off today. I didn't think of this possibility but this outlier situation if true could make a new key. On the other hand the guy just joined the forum so it could be a case of deceptive pumping. We'll see.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2017
  21. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    If the mintage does not go lower, the coin still has its excellent design to help it on the secondary market.

    I have a feeling that many more people wanted to buy some but did not, due to lack of funds after spending money on the other numerous gold offerings the Mint had in 2016.
     
  22. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    This guy is also posting on CU with very few posts, like 10? Same story.

    I thought about this and can't make it work. If you buy on the last date, for this example, let's say 12/30. An order over $300 is automatically upgraded to expedited shipping, which is about 2-3 days. I'll use 3. Order on 12/30. Mint ships 1/3. Three days later 1/6 it's at your address waiting for a signature. As far as I know from the 1st notification of delivery, USPS, UPS, FEDEX will only hold a package for 7 days before shipping it back. So on 1/14 they send it back, unless you're Trump. He claims he returned them on 1/19.

    The example above works as that was my shipping schedule; except I kept them.

    The guys on CU have been asking him for his order/ship/return dates, but he's always dodged the question. Fishy.... Maybe he want to claim glory for 'causing' this coin to become the new key.
     
  23. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I agree, outlier situation. Possible yes. Likely, no.
     
  24. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    It's looking more and more outlier. They're trying to pin him down by asking where he picked up his coins. Now he says, he didn't pick them up, someone else did.
     
  25. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    USPS will hold a package for more than 7 days, I think it's 15 and you can arrange to have them hold it 30 days or more. But that's moot 'cause orders like these the mint doesn't send USPS anymore, do they?
     
  26. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    No USPS for larger orders. I believe UPS is what they are using.
     
  27. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The Mark Twain gold unc has really suffered from the recent mintage reports, after failing to beat the 2013 5-Star Generals coin.

    Here are 3 sales of MS70s that went for below $450:

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-W-MARK...081189?hash=item43fc9ee765:g:MiIAAOSwnHZYe7O7
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-W-MARK...702846?hash=item43fc6b5abe:g:ESIAAOSwImRYdoU2
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-W-MARK...215400?hash=item43fc54a868:g:rI0AAOSw2xRYdDyn

    Come to think of it, this might be a good opportunity within the near future...
     
  28. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Latest report is in. We're lower than Jackie now by 10 coins.
     
  29. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Beat me by 1 minute.

    Commemoratives

    16CB 2016 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE GOLD UNC 5164

    I was hoping for a larger drop, but I guess this will have to do.
     
  30. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Maybe that guy was telling the truth about his returns, who knows. All that matters is the market will treat this as the key until the audit, or until (or if) 2017 Boys Town unseats it. Either will take at least a year, IMO.
     
  31. MrLucky

    MrLucky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    5180 - 5164 = 16. That would allow for only 4 more coins from everyone else. So maybe, maybe not. We'll probably never know......and who really cares anyway. ;) :still-skeptical:

    Ratio of all coins graded at pcgs & ngc is 89% 70's and remainder 69's.

    If it's not Boys Town, it'll be The Lions (ugly coin) imho.
     
  32. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Lions won't be minted in $5 gold. Boys town is ugly as well but its the only gold $5 offered this year.
     
  33. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    After looking at 3 sales reports with the NPS coin higher in mintage than the JR coin, this is great news indeed.

    One way of looking at this "mintage game" between the 2016 NPS and 1997 JR gold unc coins is to compare it to the Super Bowl going into overtime. We had 3 overtime periods with no definitive tiebreaker, but this time the NPS coin pulled ahead.
     
  34. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I must say that the last 6 months of watching the 2016 NPS gold unc coin taught me some important lessons.

    I began my quest of purchasing gold half eagles early last year with the strong opinion that modern gold half eagles tend sell on the secondary market at lower prices than the Mint. I carried that bias into the summer months of 2016, but then I started to realize that secondary market prices of the NPS gold unc coin refused to yield. I did some research of the sales numbers, and the extremely low sales numbers of the NPS gold unc coin seemed strange to me, as I expected the beautiful design of the coin would mean higher sales than the MT coin (actually, the NPS sales were higher, but the cumulative mintage was much lower due to the late release date of the NPS coins).

    Now, with MS70 specimens of the coin selling consistently on eBay at $900 (until today, such sales were only for First Strike coins, but after today's sales report, a plain NGC MS70 coin sold for $900), I almost regret that I made the earlier purchases for other gold half eagles on eBay--otherwise, I might have bought more than 6 NPS gold unc coins.

    I will probably take it easy with gold purchases this year, though I might look at the Boys Town sales, especially during the Thanksgiving break.

    With the recent success of all 3 NPS unc coins (gold, silver, and clad), I have started to have some interest in the silver unc coins (but I am very picky, especially with prices).
     
  35. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I don't have very high hopes for this year's Boys Town gold unc (though it is ugly, it may still have high sales due to lack of other gold purchase options).

    But I think the design of the Boys Town silver unc is at least average, and competition with the Lions Club silver unc may keep mintages of both coins in the low range.

    I might even venture to say that the Boys Town silver unc will probably end with a mintage below 30k.
     
  36. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Starter and savvydon like this.
  37. hernancortes

    hernancortes Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I've followed moderns for a long time now but I've never focused too much on the $5 commems. For kicks I pulled out an old greysheet: 4/1/2011
    Bid / ask on Jackie was 3200/3500, on '01 Capitol Visitors 2300/2500.
    Yikes.
     
    Starter and savvydon like this.
  38. savvydon

    savvydon Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    In the merry go round world of boom and bust cycles that was certainly 'boom'!

    The list seems too long and the series too crowded now to support those kind of prices. If rarity starts to become a common occurrence then it ain't rare anymore.
     
  39. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Right, but now almost 6 years have passed since then.

    In early 2014, Louis Golino wrote an article promoting the $5 gold commems (while casting doubt on the first spouses), but the downward trend from 2011 has continued lower since then.

    I hope that the new mintage record set by the NPS gold unc coin provides the spark to revive the entire series and reverse the trend. If if a new uptrend materializes, I think the new low mintage coins from 2016 and 2015 will lead the charge upward, while overpriced coins like the 2012 coin (star-spangled banner) will be left behind.
     
  40. Starter

    Starter Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Well, I decided to go ahead to buy my 15th gold half eagle, winning an auction on eBay to do so.

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1884-5-Gold...463612?hash=item33c6d953bc:g:JfUAAOSwA3dYbxCm


    This is my 2nd Liberty gold half eagle, and the price of 336 for NGC AU55 is a 16% premium over the spot value of 288. The coin arrived in the mail yesterday.

    I wanted to get one from the 1880s, in order to have one a few decades older than the 1906-s coin I bought last year. That coin was in MS62 condition, and it made sense for the older coin to be in worse condition than the newer one.

    Apparently, most bidders on eBay expect to buy Liberty half eagles in MS61 or MS62 condition, as they are most familiar with the prices for those coins. On the other hand, NGC-graded Liberty half eagles in AU condition are seen less often, and I have found it is easier to win auctions of these coins for this reason. By doing an NGC serial number lookup, I was able to determine that my price of 336 for the AU55 coin was well under its fair market value, and this gave me the confidence to submit a winning bid for this coin.

    By the way, due to my good fortunes from the 2016 NPS gold unc purchases and also my recent PTO payout from my previous employer, I have decided to increase my budget for years 2016 and 2017 from 15 to 20 gold half eagles. With 15 of them already in my possession, my new budget allows for 5 more for the rest of the year.
     
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