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The Coming Carmageddon

Discussion in 'Topical Discussions (In Depth)' started by Scorpio, Jul 6, 2017.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    The Coming Carmageddon
    David Stockman

    [​IMG]


    [Urgent Note: The nation’s future and a massive debt ceiling hangs in the balance as Trump pushes beyond the Comey hearings. That’s why I’m on a mission to send my new book TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… and How to Bring It Back to every American who responds, absolutely free. Click here for more details.]

    Ben Bernanke’s successors at the Fed and other global central banks still don’t get it.

    Falsified debt prices do not promote macroeconomic stability. They lead to reckless credit expansion cycles that eventually collapse due to borrower defaults. We’re now seeing that play out in the auto sector, especially since anyone who can fog a rearview mirror has been eligible for a car loan or lease.

    If that reminds you of the sub-prime housing disaster, you’d be right.

    That, in turn, will make the looming collapse even worse, due to the sudden drastic shrinkage of credit in response to escalating lender losses.

    How did we get here?

    Let’s start by looking at the Fed. Its reckless monetary reflation cycle in response to the Great Recession caused auto credit, sales and production to spring back violently after early 2010.

    Accordingly, that reflation has powerfully impacted the growth rate of total U.S. domestic output. And it’s had a massively distorting effect.

    Auto production has seen a 15% gain over its prior peak, and a 130% gain from the early 2010 bottom. But overall industrial production is actually no higher today than it was in the fall of 2007. Real production in most sectors of the U.S. economy has actually shrunk considerably.

    That means if you subtract the auto sector, there has been zero growth in the aggregate industrial economy for a full decade.

    So the auto industry has actually distorted the effects of monetary central planning.

    But the real point here is that the financial asset boom-and-bust cycle caused by monetary central planning is making the main street business cycle more unstable, not less. And it means the next auto cycle bust is certain to be a doozy.

    It also means the weak expansion of real sales and GDP over the past seven years has been artificially supported by a rapid but unsustainable snapback in the auto sector. But that is now over.

    And what I call Carmegeddon will soon be now metastasizing rapidly.

    Consider that credit analysis in the auto sector is now being overwhelming driven by the collateral value of the vehicle — not the creditworthiness of the borrower.

    Accordingly, when car prices fall sharply, losses from loan defaults will soar. During the last cycle, used car prices peaked in early 2006 and then fell nearly 25% through the 2009 bottom. Total auto credit cratered during the same period.

    And today, after plateauing for more than two years, used car prices have now begun a steep descent. During April, for example, prices of most classes of used vehicles plunged sharply. The J.D. Power index was down 13%. Needless to say, the drop in used car prices is now accelerating.

    But it still has a long way to go due to the rising tide of used cars from maturing leases and loans that are hitting the markets.

    [​IMG]

    Looking back to the last credit cycle, the crash of new cars sales after 2007 resulted in a drastic shrinkage of leased vehicles. Accordingly, volumes of pre-owned vehicles hitting the used car auctions hit a modern low of 13 million vehicles during 2011-2013. That supply shortage obviously fueled a sharp rebound of used car prices.

    By contrast, the post-2010 auto sales boom is now generating an all-time record tsunami of pre-owned vehicles. During the period 2016-2018, an estimated total of 21 million used vehicles will have hit the market.

    That 62% surge in used vehicle supply has clear, negative implications for used car prices.

    The most immediate negative effect of plunging used vehicle prices, of course, is sharply reduced values among leased vehicle portfolios. That, in turn, not only results in losses for equity holders, but also causes monthly payment rates to rise sharply on new leases.

    Lease volumes dropped by 45% during the last down cycle. But at current all-time highs of 4.3 million newly leased vehicles last year, volumes could drop by upwards of 70% during the years just ahead.

    Indeed, more than 30% of new vehicle sales were leased in 2016. And the all-time record of 4.3 million new leased vehicles in 2016 was nearly double the 2007 peak, and 4X the 2009 bottom.

    The impending plunge in used car prices will also have an even more damaging impact on the loan market.

    This means an increased share of old used car loans will be even deeper underwater because cars depreciate faster than loan balances can be paid down. That growing gap, in turn, will cause loan loss severities to rise during the down-cycle ahead.

    Driven by the Fed’s ultra-low rates, the eruption of subprime auto finance led to a stampede toward yield. And a large share of the $100 billion gain in subprime volume was due to financing almost entirely in the junk bond market.

    The precarious nature of the debt pyramid that underlies the auto market is undeniable. The auto sector is a prime example of a false debt-fueled prosperity. It underscores how the Fed’s fake prosperity actually intensifies — if not creates — the boom/bust cycle.

    Consider that nearly one-third of vehicle trade-ins are now carrying negative equity, as the below chart shows.

    That means that prospective new-car buyers are having to raise increasing amounts of cash to pay off old loans.

    [​IMG]

    Furthermore, outstanding subprime auto debt is nearly 3X higher than it was on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. So the coming correction in auto loan extensions is certain to be far deeper than the 15% decline last time.

    And payback time is just around the corner. The cycle of declining used-car volumes and rising used-car prices has exhausted itself. In fact, car loan delinquency rates have been rising sharply during the last several quarters.

    In fact, the remaining leg of the so-called recovery is now faltering rapidly as the last subprime auto borrower who could fog a rearview mirror has been loaned a car.

    [​IMG]
    Even Morgan Stanley now expects a veritable crash of used car prices. This means the auto credit auto boom is over, since the whole thing ultimately depended upon rising used car prices and collateral value for car loans and leases.

    The simple reality is that the auto boom was one giant credit-driven accident waiting to happen. They called it “putting money on the hood” in the trade.

    The explosion of auto credit described above — from $800 billion at the 2010 bottom to more than $1.5 trillion today — was fundamentally driven by asset inflation.

    But with used car prices now plummeting, the last gasp of “borrow and spend” on the dealer lots has been exhausted. That’s why Morgan Stanley is now projecting a huge decline in car sales during the balance of this decade.

    [​IMG]
    If you add faltering auto sales to the on-going Armageddon in retail and the topping out of the shale oil patch at $50 per barrel, you don’t have much of a recovery left.

    In fact, you are back to the stunning reality with which I started. Namely, that a real recovery of the U.S. industrial economy never actually happened. Industrial production last month is still below its September 2007 level. And now the auto credit, sales and production bust will take it significantly lower.

    So much for the Great Moderation. Monetary central planning is wrong in principle and doesn’t work in practice.

    The unfolding “Carmageddon” is dramatic proof.

    Regards,

    David Stockman
    for The Daily Reckoning



    [​IMG]



    David Stockman was a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street. He's the author of three books, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America and TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back. He also is founder of David Stockman's Contra Corner and David Stockman's Bubble Finance Trader





    dailyreckoning.com

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.17/carmageddon.html
     
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  2. Aurumag

    Aurumag Dimly lit. Highly reflective Midas Member Site Supporter

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    And during a closed door session of Congress, bailouts will be provided to the victimized lenders in order to prevent further collapse.

    Sound familiar?

    Extend, pretend, threaten the end of the world, rinse, repeat.
     
  3. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    I'm going out tonight to buy a '90 Pontiac Firefly.
     
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  4. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    Did anybody here think a real recovery ever happened?

    Remember the FedRes was created to STOP BOOM BUST CYCLES etc. Yet they have created nothing but. Do you think they were lying? Over 100 years of history now say they were. We have had scientifically created booms and busts, all the better to shear the sheep. They won.
     
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  5. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    IMO a big contributor to this was the BS cash for clunkers program.
     
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  6. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    And thanks to Dot Gov interference, I couldn't close the deal on the Firefly
     
  7. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I found it interesting that it wasn't mentioned in the story. My son is still driving the pickup I had at that time that I could have got rid of for more than I paid for it. The interesting thing to me during that time [I was looking for a car] was that ALL the cheapest new cars on market were NOT AVAILABLE for sale in my area, and all the used cars were going for big money. The FedGov was paying to remove old cars from the market at taxpayer expense and the auto companies were maximizing profits based on that. They had no interest in selling economy cars. This activity had a huge effect on the new and used car market, yet it is not even mentioned in the story. Hmmmm.
     
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  8. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    just a interesting factoid I heard,

    apparently, all of the supposed manufacturing gains in growth can be attributed to the boom in car sales,

    remove car sales, and the manufacturing growth in the US has been flat to negative for years,

    so that one industry has been masking a major issue re jobs/pay/etc.
     
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  9. Aurumag

    Aurumag Dimly lit. Highly reflective Midas Member Site Supporter

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    How about the tax breaks for buying an electric car?

    Volt and Bolt = government motors.
     
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  10. Howdy

    Howdy Silver Member Silver Miner

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    When cars are assembled in the US of foreign parts and badged "Made in USA", do the foreign parts factor in to domestic manufacturing figures?
     
  11. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Good question. I'm sure they do as the assembly jobs are here.

    What's really interesting are all the Ford/GM/Chrysler final assembly plants in Mexico....yet many fools still think those are "American/US" car brands.
     
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  12. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Probably that also, but I don't really think they ever sold many of those. So I wouldn't imagine it has as much of an impact. And it certainly did not disrupt the used market supply.
     
  13. JayDubya

    JayDubya Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/france-stop-sales-gas-diesel-cars-2040-48478321

    No more gasoline or diesel cars sold in France by 2040 — that's the ambitious goal set Thursday by France's environment minister as part of far-reaching efforts to wean the world's No. 6 economy from fossil fuels.

    Some manufacturers and drivers met his proposals with skepticism, but others viewed them as a welcome riposte to U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris climate accord.

    Minister Nicolas Hulot, unveiling a five-year government plan to encourage clean energy and fulfill France's commitments under the Paris accord, said French car manufacturers have projects that "can fulfill that promise."

    His appeal comes a day after Sweden's Volvo became the first major automaker to pledge to stop making cars and SUVs powered solely by the internal combustion engine.

    The Paris mayor wants to ban diesel vehicles by 2020, blamed for pollution that often chokes the French capital.

    But Hulot's plan would cover the whole country and also target gasoline-powered cars. In response to concerns from low-income drivers, he proposed aid for poorer families to buy cleaner cars.

    The maker of Peugeot and Citroen cars, PSA Group, said the environment minister's pledge fits with its goal of offering hybrid or electric versions of 80 percent of its cars by 2023.

    But even if France eventually bans sales of diesel and petrol vehicles, PSA spokeswoman Laure de Servigny said the company will continue making such cars for foreign markets.

    "We are a global player," she told The Associated Press. "You have to take into account the situation globally."

    The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association argued that electric and hybrid engines aren't the only options for the future and that carmakers are still investing in upgrading gasoline and diesel technology.

    "Improving the internal combustion engine and clean diesel technology will continue to play an important role in reducing CO2 emissions," it said in a statement to The AP.

    Greenpeace cautiously welcomed the French plan but urged a clearer time frame, concerned that it would be easy for subsequent governments to abandon the generation-long effort.

    Hulot also proposed a ban new oil and gas drilling on French territory, and said France will stop producing power from coal — now 5 percent of the total — by 2022.

    The country wants to reduce the proportion of its power from nuclear energy to 50 percent by 2025, from the current 75 percent.

    The government's plan aims to encourage green energy and technologies, notably through taxing polluting ones.
     
  14. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    My personal opinion is that electric car sales [dismal now] would drop over 90% without tax breaks.

    There would be few or no electric cars on the market without government fleet requirement regulations.
     
  15. SilverCity

    SilverCity Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Gee, I was kinda hoping for a reprise of that cash for clinkers myself as I have a couple of them I would like to get rid of...

    SC
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2017
  16. wallew

    wallew Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    JayDubya,
    So you're saying in 20 years OR LESS, most FROGS will be walking? GREAT! They can smoke their cigarettes, walk AND complain about America.

    Excellent!!!
     
  17. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    I wouldn't be completely opposed to electric if I had a relatively short commute. The reality is that I'm 120 miles from anywhere. Even if I had an electric vehicle I would want a combustion engine in the stable for longer trips. The following has a chart that I couldn't copy/paste. https://avt.inl.gov/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf

    Comparing Energy Costs per Mile for Electric and Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles
    The fuel cost of driving an electric vehicle depends on the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) and the energy efficiency of the vehicle. For example, to determine the energy cost per mile of an electric vehicle, select the location on the left axis (Electricity Cost per kWh) at 10 cents in the graph below. Draw a horizontal line to the right until you bisect the EV 3 mi/kWh line. Now draw a vertical line down until you bisect the bottom axis (Energy Cost per Mile). This tells you that the fuel for an electric vehicle with an energy efficiency of 3 miles per kWh costs about 3.3 cents per mile when electricity costs 10 cents per kWh.
    The national average cost for electricity in the U.S. is about 10 cents per kWh, while the average residential rate is about 11.7 cents per kWh. Some electric utilities have historically had electric vehicle charging rates that vary by time of use, day, and season. In the past, these rates have ranged from 3 cents to as high as 50 cents per kWh. Older electric vehicles have energy efficiencies of about 2 miles per kWh. Some electric vehicles, such as the EV1 from General Motors, had energy efficiencies of over 6 miles per kWh under some testing.
    To determine the energy cost per mile of a gasoline vehicle, pick the location on the right axis (Gasoline Cost per gallon) at $3.50. Draw a horizontal line to the left until you bisect the Gas 22 mi/gal line. Now draw a vertical line down until you bisect the bottom axis (Energy Cost per Mile). This tells you that the fuel for a gasoline vehicle with an energy efficiency of 22 miles per gallon costs about 15.9 cents per mile when gasoline costs $3.50 per gallon. The mileage for commercial fleet vehicles such as light-duty pickups ranges from below 17 miles per gallon to generally about 22 miles per gallon.
    The energy cost per mile is also included for a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) with an energy efficiency of 45 miles per gallon, as these types of vehicles are increasingly being used. If $3.50 per gallon of gasoline is also assumed for the HEV that gets 45 mpg, the energy cost per mile would be 7.8 cents per mile.
     
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  18. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Has anyone done a study on the pollution caused by charging an electric car? Also the cost per mile and dont forget the batter replacement negates any supposed savings on gas plus now you have toxic waste to dispose of, ,this is nothing but a way to make the rich richer, all the dam Nat Gas we have and they wont build those cars.
     
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  19. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Wow...just saw a commercial on TV: Kia offering 0% financing for 66 months AND no payments for the first five months. Wow...I don't ever recall seeing a manufacturer offering such before.
     
  20. SilverCity

    SilverCity Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    They must be really desperate...

    SC
     
  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    follow up article:

    Auto Sales Tank Again In June – It’s Worse Than Headline Reports
    Dave Kranzler

    [​IMG]


    June auto sales on a “SAAR” basis (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) fell 1.2% from May to 16.5 million “SAAR.” The non-SAAR number available from sources like Autonews.com show a 3% year over year drop from June 2016. The year over year comparison for the same month eliminates seasonality and it eliminates statistical errors compounded by the annualization calculation.

    It was the 6th month in a row that auto sales declined. June’s 16.5 million SAAR was 11.7% below the all-time high of 18.7 million SAAR (December 2016). This is a large decline that is not being given much attention in the financial media.

    But it’s worse, especially for the domestic OEMs (GM, Ford, Chrysler). GM’s sales dropped 4.8%, but its car sales plunged 38.2% (truck sales were up 11% with huge incentives). Ford’s sales fell 5%, truck sales were up 2.2% but car sales tanked 23%. Chrysler’s sales were down 7.4%. These numbers are on a year over year basis for June.

    Sales are plummeting despite the fact that automakers spent a record amount on cash incentives. Financing terms for the subprime debt being used to pay new cars continues to loosen. The average monthly car payment increased to $517 from $510 in May and the average term rose to a record 69.3 months and the total amount financed hit another all-time high (just under $31,000). You’ll note that subprime delinquency/default rates are starting to approach 2008 levels.

    As auto sales decline, auto manufacturing output will decline and production capacity will be shut down. All of this deteriorating economic activity in the sector will affect employment negatively. GM announced last week that its goal is to reduce the days inventory from 105 at the end of June down to 70. Note that GM had previously it would have its days inventory down to 90 by the end of June. The 105 days inventory is an all-time high. The last time it approached this level of June 2007. Clearly the optimism in the industry and on Wall Street is still far too high. With sales declining it will become harder to reduce inventory without substantial production cuts. We can expect another round of big production cuts to be announced in the next 4-8 weeks from the industry, if not sooner.

    US Dollar weakness – The U.S. dollar closed Q2 with its biggest quarterly drop in seven years, falling more than 6% during the quarter, which is a huge move for any currency let alone the world’s “reserve” currency. Compounding the bearish message of the dollar’s decline is the fact that this occurred during a period of time when the Fed is supposedly tightening money supply, which should drive the dollar higher.

    I would suggest that the dollar’s decline in the context of a “hawkish” Fed reflects the growing systemic dysfunction and fundamental deterioration of the economic, financial and political condition of the United States. At some point the stock market will “take notice” of the falling dollar – as it did in 1987 when the Dow dropped nearly 25% in one day – which will trigger an abrupt sell-off like the two that occurred last week but which, unlike last week, won’t be followed with a “V” bounce the next day.

    A portion of the above analysis is an excerpt the the Short Seller’s Journal. Currently subscribers to the SSJ also receive IRD’s Amazon.con research report and a research report on Kinder Morgan (you will be surprised what I discovered about KMI; both reports are somewhat dated in terms of the latest financial numbers but the reasons to short both stocks are intact). You can learn more about subscribing here: Short Seller’s Journal info. (Note: there’s no minimum required subscription term and subscribers can get access to the Mining Stock Journal for a 50% discount).







    [​IMG]







    Dave Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. He earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently he co-manages Golden Returns Capital, a precious metals and mining stock investment fund based in Denver. He writes a blog and offers in-depth, unique research reports to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy:









    nvestmentresearchdynamics.com

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.17/tank.html
     
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  22. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    Truck sales up but car sales tanked. And the biggest incentives now are on BS electric vehicles. I guess the public don't like being told what to drive. FU EPA and .gov.
     
  23. andial

    andial Sir Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    They could have the fed buy these cars then dump them in the ocean if demand isn't there to keep production numbers up.
     
  24. Joe King

    Joe King Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Think of all the artificial reefs that could be created. Keep comin' up with ideas like that andial, and they just might make you Fed Chairman.
     
  25. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    So we've got Carmageddon.....

    ....and The Retail Apocalypse ....

    coming to a theater near you
     
  26. SilverCity

    SilverCity Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hmmm. Maybe the wife and I should buy that new(er) car now, while there are still some available?

    SC
     
  27. dacrunch

    dacrunch Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    ... hmmm... an 8 year-old Chrysler Minivan with low miles might be in my sights later this summer...
     
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  28. tom baxter

    tom baxter back from 2004

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    As stupid as it sounds you could integrate a generator in a light electric car, a car whose every panel as a solar panel. Then on long runs you could run the gen set to keep you moving. 10 years ago a mate told me thin film solar would soon be replacing standard panels, there was a lot of media about it but like many promised innovations it never came to pass.

    40 years ago it would have been easy to make a transformation to electric cars, even with the crap technology of that day. The secret is to make them out of aluminum, make them super light, but then every car has to made that way to avoid disasters in the result of collisions. Of course trucks would be a danger to them but they now anyway. It was all do-able, if we had thought 100 years ahead, but the system doesn't like change.
     
  29. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    :Yuck::Yuck:
    Chrysler????!!
     
    Scorpio likes this.
  30. Howdy

    Howdy Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Good idea however I think you would need a solar array 30 times the size of the car and a generator as heavy as a car to accomplish anything. Solar is great for light loads. Vehicles? Doubtful.
     
  31. dacrunch

    dacrunch Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    I had a couple Dodge & Plymouth caravans in the 80s & 90s, and rented a new one last summer. Nothing fancy, but very practical & comfortable. Mattress fits well in the back for long trips. And they're much cheaper than the JapVans... & used parts everywhere cheap...

    As for new... I'd like a Dodge Ram Pro-Master diesel converted to a camper (based on Fiat Ducato) - but there, you're talking mucho buckos... (but half of the Mercedes equivalent). - if only EPA would let me import the Fiat Ducato from Europe, with the 2.3 liter diesel getting close to 40 mpg, that would be a dream... at 1/2 price of US models...
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017 at 4:55 AM

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