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Trump will be impeached

Discussion in 'Politics Forum (Local/National/World)' started by Scorpio, Nov 11, 2016.



  1. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    ‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached

    8 / 24
    [​IMG]
    The Washington Post
    Peter W. Stevenson 2 hrs ago



    Few prognosticators predicted a Donald Trump victory ahead of Tuesday night. Polls showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead, and much of America (chiefly the media) failed to anticipate the wave of pro-Trump support that propelled him to victory. But a Washington, D.C.-based professor insisted that Trump was lined up for a win — based on the idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power.

    Allan Lichtman uses a historically based system of what he calls “keys” to predict election results ahead of time. The keys are explained in-depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.” In our conversations in September and October, he outlined how President Obama's second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped the balance in Trump's favor, even if just barely.

    At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.

    “I'm going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”

    So while Republican voters clearly came home before Nov. 8 — network exit polls show 90 percent of GOP voters cast ballots for Trump — it's less clear that the party leadership is on board. (Lichtman actually isn't the only person to predict a Trump impeachment; this morning, the New York Times's David Brooks suggested a Trump impeachment or resignation was “probably” in the cards sometime within the next year.)

    It's worth noting that Lichtman's predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what's called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman counters by saying that the system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions.

    “Polls are not predictors,” he said Friday in an email. “They are snapshots that simulate an election. They are abused and misused as predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.”

    And he has particular disdain for prediction systems that assign a likelihood of winning.

    “For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst,” Lichtman said.

    As for the real reason for Trump's win, Lichtman says the blame can't be put on Hillary Clinton or her campaign — rather, he says, it was decided by the larger forces that shape American politics.

    “The Democrats cannot rebuild by pointing fingers at Hillary Clinton and her campaign, which as the Keys demonstrated, were not the root cause of her defeat,” he said. “The Democrats can rehabilitate themselves only by offering an inspiring progressive alternative to Republican policies and building a grass-roots movement.”

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd?li=BBnb7Kz
     
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  2. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Can someone find me odds on this happening? I would like to place a shamefully hefty sum of money against it!
     
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  3. 90%RealMoney

    90%RealMoney Midas Member Midas Member

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    I don't see it happening. Pence is young enough to wait his turn to be Prez.
     
  4. oldgaranddad

    oldgaranddad Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Sounds like the messenger for Trump's victory is probably feeling the heat for being the truthful bearer of bad news for his buddies in academia and now is looking to give them something to latch onto as an olive branch. If you notice, Lichtman is stating only gut instincts with no scientific basis behind them totally in opposition to his previous election prediction.
     
  5. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    He's probably getting death threats
     
  6. OverOver

    OverOver Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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  7. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Ahhh, no...because:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Modal Operator/Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    What I look at is "The Apprentice".

    If you ever watched the program before it was Celebrity Apprentice he would have young candidates perform tasks to outwit their opponents.

    As the show progressed he'd fire the ones that wouldn't compete as well as the rest. His famous "You're FIRED!" became an iconic saying.

    The winner got to 'apprentice' with Trump and/or his people, i.e., he got a job.


    What I saw during his campaign is he'd hire folks in positions to run it. He 'FIRED' several and the media pounced upon that as 'trouble in paradise'.

    I saw it as Trump doing what Trump does - running his business his way. Apparently, he knows what he's doing!

    I suspect he'll do the very same thing running the country.

    All the candidates for the cabinet better produce or else they too will hear "You're FIRED".

    Of course, the media will have a heyday when he does, but he ignores them for the most part. He'll put the right person in place.

    If he does what everyone thinks he will do - cut Washington graft and over-employment - the country will run great.


    IMO the 'problem' started when unqualified Affirmative Action employees were given positions of responsibility. Call it what you will, it was quotas.

    They failed miserably much as Obama thought he caught the gravy train getting elected...lavish vacations, golfing, expensive junkets and doing nothing, because from the viewpoint of anyone who hasn't earned what they have it's all they see those that have earned it doing. They never 'see' what it took to get to where they could afford the nicer things. Hard work and risk taking, street smarts and the financial pain of failure.

    As affirmative action progressed government continued to hire and promote unqualified people and - like any organization that lose focus, fail. It's why we have the mess we do today.


    I certainly hope he runs the country like he does everything else. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that does things without thinking them through. In fact, "The Apprentice" was his way of showing America how to run a business and it very well could have been in his 'plan' as a run at POTUS! If so, that is some planning ahead!!

    The only problem is the two houses, but there are ways to get people 'on board' and from what I can tell he's a superb "negotiator".
     
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  9. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I very seriously doubt that


    I very seriously agree with you !

    Actually, I have said, for years, that this country needed a good businessman to run it. Well I (we) shall see.
     
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  10. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    why the author couldn't leave well enough alone..........

    he used his scientific methods to create the right answer,
    then dissolves into a 'feeling' about being impeached,

    how friggin' ironic is that??? A feeling...........

    perfectly apropos to these dimwit snowflakes..........A feeling
     
  11. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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    I feel with both hands, other than that I do not understand !!! LOL
     
  12. ABC123

    ABC123 Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Does anyone think Ron Paul has a place in a Trump presidency?
     
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  13. D-FENZ

    D-FENZ Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    Not unless successfully hawking a HarvestRight, freeze dryer to one of his aides counts.
     
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  14. Alton

    Alton Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    A dim "ray of hope" for GOP Trump haters.

    If Trump does something outside the purview of constitutionally defined or legislatively conferred presidential authorities then bring the impeachment. Stupid is stupid and deserves to be treated as such.

    OTOH hand I guarantee that the Donald will do much to piss off and otherwise upset a lot of GOP congresscritters. To them, all I can say is better pissed off than pissed on which I think they will do to themselves quite often and quite well.

    The GOP will need to get it's act together and pull together or else they will end up in disarray much worse than the dems. Mid-term elections and the next general election will gut the congress of GOP members if they get with the program. The American people will still be quite angry, sick and tired of government in 2 years if they continue entrenched in arrogance, ignorance and failure and you can bet the dems will be fanning the flames of a fire that they will get burned by also.

    A Trump impeachment will get tossed around the congress and in the news quite often until all get tired of hearing certain congresscritters cry "Wolf" every other week. This will actually serve to work against their wet dream of a Trump impeachment.
     
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  15. gringott

    gringott Killed then Resurrected Midas Member Site Supporter

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    No.
     
  16. TRYNEIN

    TRYNEIN Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I laughed at this

    It is nothing more than the bedwetting liberals pipedream.


    WHO is going to impeach him???...the Demorats...I think they're shy a couple of votes..

    The Rinos who go against the will of the people...they keep getting voted out of office..

    The 2 Senators who turned on Trump a couple of weeks ago, both lost their races on Tuesday

    And lets not forget that in 2 years, there are a lot a Dem Senators up for re-election


    Don't worry though, they'll still get their participation trophy.
     
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  17. TAEZZAR

    TAEZZAR LADY JUSTICE ISNT BLIND, SHES JUST AFRAID TO WATCH Midas Member Site Supporter

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    Looks like we have a liberal retard among us.
     
  18. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    that fits them perfectly!

    how about the moron from grubhub.........told all his employees if you voted for tramp, stand up and you are out of here......that is going to work for shareholders

    burn the place to the ground

    these idiots internet wannabes haven't got a clue how to actually build things, make things, only acting as middle men pukes living off the efforts of others, and you think your opinion matters...........

    if you are so distraught..........PULL THE TRIGGER!
     
  19. maxrider

    maxrider Seeker Seeker

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  20. maxrider

    maxrider Seeker Seeker

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    Since Trump has become President-Elect:

    1. Russia and Syria have publicly announced wanting peace with the U.S.

    2. Israel's Prime Minister announced that they want to repair the damaged relationship between them and the U.S.

    3. DOW closed yesterday at an all-time high.

    4. Canada and Mexico have announced they are willing to renegotiate NAFTA with the U.S.
     
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  21. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    yet, this is more widespread,

    in addition to your items:

    -canada chose a outsider with name recognition, what is he 21 yrs old?
    -Brexit
    -Tramp

    along with the chins and the Phillipines tossing the kenyan to the curb
     
  22. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Nope, next question...
     
  23. REO 54

    REO 54 Midas Member Midas Member

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    IMG_0537.JPG
     
  24. oldgaranddad

    oldgaranddad Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    One of the guys I ride the train with works at a law firm that specializes in employment law. He says his firm and others are already lining up employees for a lawsuit based on this bozo's comments. The blood is already in the water. You have to remember in NY and NYC employment law favors the employee not the employer and the bar is set really low for the employees to prove discrimination. I have to admit that it is pure Schadenfreude hearing that liberal employment laws will be used to ream a libtard and make Grubhub/Seamless pay through the rectal orifice. You can bet that there will be a management change over there fairly soon and lots of out of court settlements. I did see an article where the company tried to walk back or clarify the CEO's statements but I think this story grew legs way too fast for them to do any significant damage control.
     
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  25. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Son of Gloin likes this.
  26. Son of Gloin

    Son of Gloin Gold Member Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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  27. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    "But everybody gets a fair trial in this country," Amash added as he left a House GOP conference meeting.

    So every time a story comes out in the MSM accusing Trump of something sinister we need to have a trial? This guy is as RINO as it gets. He even looks like a girlyman

    Actually, this is good, the traitors are showing their colors for all to see. If they get their way impeachment will be followed with revolt which will lead to civil war. If not then you can kiss your country good bye and hand it over to the communists.
     
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  28. southfork

    southfork Mother Lode Found Mother Lode

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    Is Trump out of touch with reality or what? I hope so but it seems he does not know how corrupt DC is, it's still filled with lackies from Clinton, Bush and Oatsama, I cant fathom he still has all these people in there 4 months down the road that leak something every day it seems. No mention of any Clinton investigation ect and he seemed to backpeddle saying they were good people and have been thru enough WTF ?? I truly hope were going to see masive arrests of the clinton and Dnc cabal soon, but doubting it more every day.
     
  29. Mr Paradise

    Mr Paradise Midas Member Midas Member

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    Just a nobody trying to make a name for himself by saying something that will get a 24hr cycle headline.


    The swamp has many poisonous toads that will be thrown into battle to help ensure it doesn't get drained.
     
  30. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Not gonna happen.
     
  31. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    He's on the Day of the Rope list
     
  32. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Maybe yes, maybe no.....I'm prepared just in case
     
  33. hammerhead

    hammerhead Not just a screen name Gold Chaser

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    3 years from now we will be hearing the same claim.
     
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  34. the_shootist

    the_shootist I self identify as a black '69 Camaro Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Agreed, Trump is no closer to impeachment than you or I are. It's purely wishful thinking by the communists and corrupt MSM. They will keep screaming it until they're silenced, one way or the other
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
  35. Garyw

    Garyw Silver Member Silver Miner

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    First thing I would have gotten rid of was the new computer Obama put in the oval office and took his old one out. It is probably a direct line to the deep state. If he can hold off for a year and a half there won't be any demotards left except on the west coast.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
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  36. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    lest we forget, the washington post owned by amazon bezos was floating this 'impeachment' thing just a couple of days after the election. Look at the article date.
     
  37. Irons

    Irons Deep Sixed Site Supporter Mother Lode

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    TPTB have zero evidence so they are trying to smear President Trump in the court of state run media.

    Problem for them is anybody with a pulse knows the media is a clown show full of shit.

    .
     
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  38. Scorpio

    Scorpio Скорпион Founding Member Board Elder Site Mgr Site Supporter ++

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    ahhh, but be very careful here,
    the media has become very adept at managing peoples opinions ie providing one for them
     
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  39. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Wouldn't surprise me if certain shows weren't designed for just this purpose.
     
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  40. anywoundedduck

    anywoundedduck Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Let em try, though it is a waste of time. The needs of the Democrats in defeat outweigh the affairs of state.
    All accusations are based on the DNC got hacked by Russia, yet they refuse to let the FBI examine their server.
    Why don't we examine the "if you like your plan you can keep your plan" and see if there is any corruption to be found.
     
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