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URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by SAGI, May 1, 2013.



  1. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Welcome to the new U&AE thread which is a continuing thread opened every April or May and closed at the end of each year in April or May. For new readers there are four such threads each with interesting information and stories or experiences of the author. The thread is primarily a Uranium and alternative energy thread but we dabble with gold too and almost every weekend there is an article written called Coffee with Carrot head! Its light hearted and usually entails my own experience in life and how many of our experiences can be used to learn lessons in investing or trading. The link for the previous thread is here as usual on the first page and all the other threads have links to the previous threads. http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?30934-URANIUM-amp-ALTERNATIVE-ENERGY-3 Anyone is welcome to join us or criticise or write their own experiences which will help others to learn. There are several hundred coffee articles and while some of it may be repeats a lot of it is interesting ....I hope.

    Thank you and Welcome to the fourth edition of the thread.

    SAGI:banana:
     
  2. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  3. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  4. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    MAY BLUES!





    Good Morning and welcome to the first Coffee for this new thread. I am attempting to write something inspirational but the truth; it’s been a dull month. I will say that in the coming weeks we should see some sort of correction in the equities. The markets have gone up very well while commodities had their first great big fall. Nothing in terms of commodities is really moving and even gold has failed to aggressively move up after the bounce from the drop. Despite hysterical physical buying in the far east this has not converted to the majority paper trade as expected, in retrospect the price of gold has gradually begun to move up with traditional support turned resistance set in at 1475.00.

    The US equity markets are showing positive aggressive moves this week with no indication of a correction occurring as yet in the price action. It should come soon but has yet to show any indication. A slow down would simply indicate consolidation and good possibility of moving up further. The month of May blues have yet to show and like spring which is late perhaps, so is blue May.

    Uranium continues to find support at 40 dollars and we have yet to see it drop below if there is any possibility of this occurring it will be within the coming two months. Failure to do so will probably provide some solace for investors in the yellow mineral, myself included. The stocks are another matter and we have continued to see declines despite many uranium gurus and newsletters are punching the key board hard, stateing that a turnaround should occur this year. Many concede that the move is unlikely without Japan bringing its reactors online. A failure to engage them will only reinforce the bears and further downside is possible. Stocks like Paladin are at ultra lows for the time of the year. Other companies such as Mawson have taken double hits with gold also dropping.

    If gold does not move up soon we could see another push downside as India’s purchasing will wean during the summer months preceding the monsoon season.

    Even Dennison despite getting its hands on Fission has dropped further and now below the support area of 1.20-1.25. Cameco has resisted but the rest have all dropped. Something has to give soon as it is impossible for most exploration companies to survive through such low prices as it is simply unprofitable nor is there any possibility to raise finance in such a scenario easily. A-cap recently raised some capital by issue of shares. Further dilution actually hurts the company and shareholders are less likely to invest with any further capital raising through dilution of stocks. Australian companies do issue out massive amounts of shares and this is the same case for Greenland minerals which also will have to come to the markets or take on a major partner to garner some 800 million dollars required to begin mining their giant project. They are looking to bring up rare earth minerals, uranium and zinc. Zinc stocks are dropping at the LME http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#lmestocks_6months This is a bullish sign for zinc companies as there is a good possibility of prices rising. A look at the five year chart paints a different picture to the six month chart. In conclusion we are looking at a relatively shorter term outlook for the time being.

    In the last few years the world has not agreed on whether we are in a recession or not. Whats new? It probably took them a few years simply to agree if they could change the name of league of nations to United Nations, after all that was far more important than two world wars…The truth is that we are in a recession and the world appears not to have money to spend and that means less production which means less consumption of electricity and thus less production required.

    The Japanese are an amazing race. They have had recessions in their history but they also have a system that is truly amazing. When the country goes into a recession they begin to plan expansion, clean up, improvement and all this occurs during their recession, they then improve their factories waiting for the next cycle, because for hundreds of years they have known of these cycles. They hunker down and make the best of what they have. North Americans, and Europeans abandon factories or sell them for scrap. Right now as we read this the Japanese are not scrapping their Nuclear power plants, rather they are improving them, maintaining them, knowing that in the future they will not have this time. When the time is right they will come online but right now they must be replacing pipes, removing and replacing corroded parts and other items so that by the time the power station does come online it will probably not have to be shut down again for more than a few years. Japan is also selling the technology to the middle east and Turkey. Abe the prime minister of Japan has not been idling rather he has continued to go around the world promoting Japanese technology. A few years ago I stated that the worlds third world war will not be really physical it will begin as all wars have begun with war of trades and money. Wars begin when one party is pushed into a corner regardless of their view point policy or philosophy, putting these aside it all ends up being about trade and survival. The cycle will repeat time and time again. Wars are about expanding production and markets. This world war will about the same with one key difference. It will also be a war of information and technology.

    A few years ago the US Navy were testing a new sonar and sonic wave technology, this technology was so devastating to marine life that it destroyed hundreds of whales if not thousands. Many were beached but it also lead to the possible discovery of a new species. That species that we have talked about and written about in our history books but have never found evidence to support the stories. The amazing story was recently told on animal planet and how the navy and the US government made every effort to cover it up. The whales were physically affected even before they beached but another creature that is now considered to have a symbiotic relationship with whales and dolphins was discovered. That creature is the mermaid/merman. An ape that they theorize took the oceans several million years ago as the continents drifted apart. Their sound waves have been recorded and a video of the discovery of one partially alive along with the beached whales made this an impressive documentary. Similar findings were discovered in the belly of a great white caught in South Africa. What makes this credible is the ridge on top of the head that the children did not know existed and was not known before the south Africa discovery. Do watch this two hour documentary as it is very interesting. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G5Ovd-DSyM Why the Navy was so interested in denying the existence of one and confiscating the material is difficult to assess. It may be that they would like to use its intelligence in the future. Only time will tell. It makes little difference to us if there is a mermaid in existence or not. (Sorry the program is a work of fiction but its good.)

    An energy crisis is emerging. If the non farm payrolls report continues to get stronger and the economy continues to improve it tells us that consumption will go up and if that happens then production must increase to satisfy demand. With production we will see the demand for electricity increasing and I do not see that demand satisfied when we have a lag in the increase of power stations. Only this week North Carolina was asked to revoke the license for two power stations because demand has dropped. While we may not see an immediate increase in demand it will be worse when that demand does rise and cannot be satisfied. This anomaly has a very real chance of happening as we continue to see the world ignoring the signs that demand will increase. In such a scenario the price of uranium could rise very quickly.

    How do we judge when the time is right to go into stocks? we should pay attention to any price rises. What matters is our reaction to these prices as they anticipate the demand. Even without news published if we do see the price beginning to rise it will be an indication that something important has changed and despite us not knowing what has changed we must indeed get onto the wagon train at that moment.

    I like watching documentaries from time to time when I get an opportunity. Nowadays a lot of my time is spent reading on the internet. The problem with the internet is that information is never in detail. Reports are there and some research perhaps is there but the devil, ‘as they say’ is in the detail.

    It was for this reason that I stopped reading all the stories about gold and began to concentrate on the price action. The price told me everything that I had to know. It told me what people were thinking if I could read the signs in the price. The price told me if something catastrophic happened in the world on most occasions or if nothing was happening. This simple method helped me reduce the amount of time analyzing and in most cases over analyzing the reasons for movements. It became unnecessary to do so. I urge you to concentrate on the price action and learn to read the signs. They tell us everything we need to know about making a decision in the future because that is what matters. History is good but it does not necessarily reflect the future.

    Kivalliq resources has been making headlines for some time now but I have been reluctant to add it after loosing Hathor ,Fission and a few others to takeovers. Like many others I began with the thinking that the small companies at the beginning of a Uranium bull market was the right place to be and for some time I was right, but I never saw or chose to ignore the 2008 crisis like many others. I paid the price therefore I am now more cautious of getting into any more stocks for the time being but for those that are new to trading and still have massive reserve capital it would be a very good bet to place roughly 2% to 5% in uranium stocks like Cameco, Paladin, Dennison and the others I have mentioned on the previous threads. They will get mentioned on this thread too from time to time so do read once in a while if you are not one the regular readers. Other explorers worth keeping an eye on are Greenland minerals, A-cap resources and Fission resources deposit which is now owned by Dennsion mines because they bought out Fission, but they did not buy one company rather they bought two and everyone seems to have forgotten that fission bought out Pitchstone exploration some time ago so we are now playing Russian dolls. The question is who will take Dennison and my feeling is that eventually Cameco will go in partnership with Dennison’s owners, the Lundin group and that is possibly why Dennison has not been taken over so far.

    The Lundin group is the same group that sold Red Beck mining to Kinross and lead to the early retirement of the Ceo of Kinross. The Lundins have had either the luck of the devil or they simply have the knack for making money. Either way they are looking for more assets through Dennison. Cameco may try for Dennsion but that is going against the Lundin group.

    The Lundin group is also looking for better assets in uranium and so Kivilliq may not be out of their eye sight just as they got Jnr resources and Fission. Kivilliq may be the next or they may consider Fissions previous partner. Which ever we look there are aggressive buyouts going on and it will only get more volatile from now on. This is an interesting interview with Lundin have a read its worthwhile. http://www.miningfeeds.com/2013/05/02/tommy-humphreys-lukas-lundin-interview/

    These days it is hard to keep focus and keep a positive outlook but I ask everyone to be patient. The time for Uranium will come and perhaps sooner than we think. The recent acquisition of fission effectively brings KEPCO and Lundin into Namibia where fission has some interests. As in chess the game is always four step ahead of us. Cameco may also be interested in Kivilliq, they are coming up with the goods but it will also continue to aggressively look at other deposits, they may be forced to be Dennison at a massive premium in the future as Lundin is fond of selling at the top rather than at the bottom. Kepco has a long relation with Dennison having bought shares in it in 2009 and having an agreement to purchase 20% of Dennisons production until 2015. We do weave a web here because Kepco also owns a major share in Fission hence the connection. Lundin also had people he knew buy a good number of shares in Dennison in 2009. At the time they paid about 1.30 for the shares. As this is not Lundin’s main line they may be open to sell Dennison shares if the price is right. Wait for the prices to begin moving up or the news of some momentous occasion that may lead to it before you go in.

    The one company that investors should have in their portfolio should be Cameco. If Cameco does not rise, nothing else will. It is the leader of the pack and therefore will show the way. This year Cigar lake comes online. Despite their first quarter drop in profit they are looking to increase production. They will continue to increase their resources and continue to be the biggest pure play.

    A number of projects have been shelved and a few more will in the future. The supply will dry out as more and more companies reduce their production. A number of exploration companies that have not found anything for years will have their finances fizzle out and they will disappear. Most of the ones that did find something will eventually be bought out if they have smaller deposits or will hold out for a partnership with a larger company. These may survive but more often will be merged or swallowed later. The only independent company that has a good size deposit and is a producer is Paladin resources. This has a greater leverage in the future to move up. Asides from their Namibia production they also have production in Malawi. They also have a large deposit of around 100 million pounds in Canada which was bought off Fronteer gold before it was sold off. They are geared for long term production and have the ability to increase production if necessary.

    In recent months I have not been as regular in posting Coffee articles. This is due to some unforeseen circumstances cropping up. I will try to post on Saturday morning but its not always possible. Off late we have had very little significant news and this has made it more difficult. I hope that the summer months drilling will provide some good news and I am hoping that Japan will restart their reactors soon.


    With that I bid you a good weekend.

    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
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  5. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Sorry, couldn't post a link

    Also, not plugging for Casey. Just passing along info FWIW

    Dear Fellow Investor,

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  6. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!


    TO BELIEVE OR NOT TO BELIEVE…..that is the question.



    As soon as the last coffee article was posted I began to think about the possibility of Uranium prices dropping further. In the past I have not only tried to use technical charts to gauge but to also tried the Buffet et al treatment of using basic fundamentals. While I would not think I am anywhere near to gauging with the accuracy of Mr. Buffet far from it we are inverse to each other, in that his stocks continue to make him money while they really do loose me money on my thinking. The logic of this would be that I am wrong and he…..is right? My ego refuses to let me acknowledge that. They say that timing is absolute key to being either a millionaire or a pauper. Genius has nothing to do with it but simply being in the right place at the right time and making the right decision is what it takes to enter and to cash in is the same.

    I would ask my self the fundamental question now of how strong is my belief that there will be a Uranium supply demand anomaly leading to the rise in prices because this is key to the rise of stock prices. Nothing else will make it move. GGG finds five hundred million pounds and it languishes, A-cap finds three hundred million pounds and drops to the bottom. Paladin makes a contract gets rid of its debts and goes down hill. The list is endless. Looking at fundamentals the chances of uranium stocks moving up are high. The technical charts are simply not doing justice but the fundamentals are strong. When fundamentals are strong time is never on our side. Time works well in the short term but with fundamentals years of bull begin to take place and this takes a great deal of time. Countries will try to get contracts with various uranium companies but these companies will run short of uranium and then the generating companies will attempt to get contracts with smaller ones while at the same time try to take partnerships to lock in uranium fuel with smaller exploration companies that have deposits but no finance. They may try to either buy them out or work out a deal with larger companies enticing them with promised contracts for the future. Prices will begin to move up. There are just too many power stations coming on line in this decade and the next and just not enough near production deposits. Each of these mines will take roughly ten years from confirming deposits before they come on line. Not one of the exploration companies is in a hurry to start production. This is exactly what I would do.

    Assume I have a uranium deposit of say 100 million pounds of uranium where my chances are likely that I will be able to mine 70% of the deposit. My costs are about 40 dollars to the pound estimated, so it is likely that cost will be say 15% higher. I can see market value on contracts is about 55 dollars so the maximum I am making is 10 dollars on the pound. My cost is going to be about 400 million and I have to go to the market to get this. This is going to kill my stock price and put a serious dent in my personal ownership of my company’s stock. I know that there is demand out a few years so I begin a go slow system. I need to maintain my staff because its not easy getting a good team, but at the same time I am not willing to issue shares just yet. I know that it will take at least a few years for the commodity price to climb. I want to get maximum leverage out of the uranium I have in the ground. The only choice I have is to explore some more so go in the market and issue a small quantity of shares and go back into exploration and see if I can expand my deposit. I will be expanding at roughly 12 to 15 million per year and I have some good ground still out there. Meanwhile I am getting a few interesting calls in regards to putting a deal together in exchange for some locked in contracts but I think I will bid my time. If I lock it in now I am going to loose any increase in price. I need to get the maximum price out of the uranium I have. I am in no hurry now. I have the land for the next fifty years so its not going anywhere. If I wait a couple of years the price could be as high as 70 dollars. That adds nearly 80% to my net profits giving me more leverage. I therefore continue to explore and reduce my costs as much as possible keeping key staff while reducing peripheral staff. Meanwhile I will spend on planning as I do not want share holders loosing out either because its not in my interest. I will issue out several press releases every couple of months most of which will be regurgitated from previous press releases with a two liner telling them what progress has been made. Meanwhile I will continue to hold the interest of various potential partners by increasing the size of the deposit if I can. I will reduce the number of drill holes I am going to make every year and they will be further out to see if I can increase the length and breath of the area.

    Every single exploration company that has anything worthwhile is doing this on the basis of prices being low.

    The rest are simply moving their mouths but have nothing to show.

    Japans yen has dropped after the Bank of Japan began its easing aggressively. This will in the longer term affect Japanese imports as they get more expensive and perhaps put the pressure on them to restart the nuclear power plants soon. The reasons; A cheaper yen means higher oil costs but asides form that Japan is the largest importer of natural gas, it is the third largest importer of oil and the second largest importer of coal. At present Japan is heavily dependent on importing the fuels at premium prices and at the same time suffering further with a cheap yen. Japan has little or no natural resources of its own and therefore a net importer. Japan also has a heavy steel industry making it ever more difficult for local industries to survive. The costs are being leveled against citizens and they are suffering under the extra burden. This cannot go on indefinitely and a solution must be found soon.

    Most countries agree that coal is not a long term solution for energy, and though it is cheap it is also one of the major culprits of pollution.

    A few weeks ago I mentioned that the northern oceans are heating up and that eventually the extreme cold weather in Europe and USA will be on the increase. This will require more energy for heating up homes. With gas prices rising (and they will) and with no long term solution to produce bio gas on a massive scales it is likely that we shall continue to rely on natural gas as long as we can. There is no guarantee of the shale gas being limitless, rather we do know that shale gas is more expensive to extract and that the population will bear the costs eventually. The recently rise in the stock market is simply one possible indication of the future to come but it is not definite. If jobs are difficult to find there will be cuts made in expenditure. It would be prudent for countries to begin planning and construction of nuclear power now so that by the time the prices of gas and other fuels rise they will be less affected.

    South Africa is seriously considering nuclear as an alternative to coal and oil. http://www.ventures-africa.com/2013/05/south-africa-to-construct-new-nuclear-power-plants/ the one interesting thing that hit me was the no –nonsense attitude of the minister who gave the interview. He put down the facts stated clearly that there is a problem and that nuclear is the only solution. Fukushima was one disaster. The logic being applied here is if a vehicle has a massive accident we should all stop driving cars they are too dangerous, or stop traveling on planes. In fact as far as Merckel is concerned we should all go back to the medieval age, and begin reusing the horse and cart. In her case the cart should pull the horse, it is after all animal cruelty. There was the case of an idiot in Lamu in Kenya who issued a law that all donkeys should wear diapers. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6902309.stm There are idiots and then there are IDIOTS.

    The problems with most of the explorations companies is that their cost of mining is on par with spot prices and simply negates the idea of developing as mentioned above. A-cap resources is in a similar situation and running out of cash. At current prices it had to go back into the market to raise capital and did so by issuing shares. A-cap just does not have the money at present to go into production and even if they did they would be making losses at current prices. This is making it difficult for investors to put in money. You have to be a real hard core uranium buff (like my self) or an investor with deep pocket and a long term outlook to put capital in A-cap. It’s a risk when a company only has 5 million in their coffers. This is not unusual but it does mean that there is a likelihood of the owners taking on a major partner or simply being sold out. It would be a shame but those are the facts. I do have share sin A-cap and I must add it’s a large amount. In my opinion the current price of 6 cents is a massive drop and A-cap sits on the precipice for the moment. Here is their latest report. http://acap.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/March-Quarterly-FINAL.pdf

    Greenland minerals has fared better with their massive deposit but there is still news to come from the greenland government. GGG is still a primarly REE or rare earth exploration company and latest estimates suggest that they will be mining about 1 million pounds of Uranium. Here is the latest cost estimate report for the set up of the mine. http://www.ggg.gl/docs/ASX-announcements/Mine-and-Concentrator-study.pdf

    I could write about at least five to ten good reasons as to why Uranium is such a good buy but one reason which outweighs all is against it. The reason is price. When we look at price action we notice a downward trend and it does not matter how many letter writers, experts, or proponents of uranium you put out there, the majority are remaining off uranium and that at the end what matters because its about price and profit and nothing else. We can argue about uranium till there is a red sun out there but it will make no difference. We need the price of uranium to move up and for a good reason. That reason can possibly come at the end of summer with Japan confirming what we have been saying all along. If they begin to activate their power stations it will be a positive sign, it will also mean that they will re enter the markets to purchase uranium or re-activate their stalled contracts, which ever way they will show us the way so we are waiting for some news from them. They must be feeling the heat (No pun intended).

    Gold appears to be still in a downward trend having found resistance at 1475-1485. This week it has dropped below previous support levels just as it did on the previous ocassion when it was at 1575.00. It languished for a while at 1550-1535 before dropping below that and went into free fall. The drop yesterday sees support at 1360.00 so that is where we are expecting it to head after having broken support. I would suggest for the time being to remain away from gold.

    Husab deposit in Namibia will begin producing in 2015 after Gundong broke ground to begin constructing the mine. While deposits in other parts of the world languish around for decades while waiting for permits, things move a little quicker in Africa. Husab from discovery to production will have taken nine years. Discvery to permits has taken 6 years. That is fast when it comes to Uranium mining. However if you are fearing that this production will come into the markets you are wrong. Most of this uranium will end up in China. In short it does not affect the rest of the market. Husab will be the third largest uranium mine in the world and will be capable of producing roughly 6000 tonnes of uranium which is more than the sum of the rest of Namobias production. It will also bring up Namibia to second in production countrywise. http://www.miningweekly.com/article...rlds-third-largest-uranium-deposit-2013-05-03

    China is not only constructing nuclear power plants but getting to some of the largest deposits in the world. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN_Building_steam_in_Chinese_nuclear_1005131.html even they cannot keep up with the demand from the current construction of nuclear power plants. In 2011 china used over 17000 tonnes of Uranium, double the consumption of 2010 and by 2020 they are going to probably use over 25 000 tonnes. By 2030 they will be doubling that. China is expected to have consumed most of its dometically produced uranium and will actively have to produce it in other countries or buy it form the market. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011npc/2011-03/08/content_12131975.htm

    URZ recently began to climb but this is because it was in the news that Woming will provide a twenty million dollar loan to enable it to complete construction. This is the exception to the sector. The following is a time line from 2006 to 2008 of what happened in Uranium mainly based in Australia. http://www.choosenuclearfree.net/uranium-exports/bubble/

    To believe in the Uranium dream or not is your question. I believe that uranium will play a big part in the future energy demand of this world.


    Have a great weekend.

    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
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  7. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Sabina continues to gain value as Xtrata develops heckett deposit. works like SLW

    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - May 9, 2013) - Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. (SBB.TO) -
    -Hackett Resource increased by 34% over last Xstrata resource-
    -Approval to re-engage environmental assessment on Port and Road received-
    -Sabina Q1 financials also reported. $104.2 million in cash and equivalents at March 31, 2013-
    Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. (the "Company") reported today Glencore Xstrata has disclosed a new mineral resource estimate for the Hackett River project. The Company also is pleased to report approval from the Nunavut Impact Review Board (NIRB") to continue through the environmental assessment process on the port and road. The Company also announced its financial results for the interim period ended March 31, 2013.
    Hackett River Project
    Hackett River, located 45 km west of the Company's Back River gold project in Nunavut, is a silver rich volcanogenic massive sulphide ("VMS") project and is one of the largest undeveloped projects of its type. In 2011, the Company sold the project to Xstrata Zinc Canada Ltd which is now part of the newly formed Glencore Xstrata Plc ("Xstrata").
    As consideration for the sale, the Company received $50 million in cash and retains a significant silver royalty on the project. Under the terms of the agreement, Sabina would receive 22.5% of silver production up to the first 190 million ounces produced and 12.5% of all silver produced thereafter at Hackett River.
    Since its acquisition of the project and its initial resource estimate on Hackett in 2011, Xstrata has been moving the project forward including drilling over 50,000 meters in 2012.
    On May 3, 2013 in its annual report of mineral resources and ore reserves as at December 31, 2012, Xstrata provided a summary of the mineral resources and mineral reserves on its projects, including a new mineral resource estimate for Hackett River. Xstrata now reports measured and indicated resources of 25 million tonnes grading 4.2% Zn and 130 g/t Ag and an additional inferred resource of 57 million tonnes grading 3% Zn and 100 g/t Ag. The project also contains appreciable copper, lead and gold.
    The entire Xstrata resource update can be found at: http://www.glencorexstrataplc.com/assets/Uploads/X-pup-reservesandresources-20121231.pdf. Xstrata disclosed that Aline Côté, Project Manager for Xstrata Zinc served as the Competent Person for Xstrata in connection with this mineral resource estimate.
    The new mineral resource is an increase of approximately (34%) in all categories (measured, indicated and inferred) over Xstrata's previously published estimate in December 2011.
    "The Hackett royalty is a significant asset to Sabina," said Rob Pease, President & CEO. "We are very encouraged by Xstrata's progress on the project and their current activities. The more work done to de-risk and advance the project, the more the value of the royalty should materialize for our shareholders. We are also pleased to have NIRB approval to advance through the permitting process for BIPR. We view the port and road as infrastructure that will serve both industry and the regional communities of Nunavut. We have a good working rapport with what is now the Canadian zinc division of Glencore Xstrata, and look forward to continuing our mutually beneficial relationship."
    The Company does not expect Xstrata will prepare a technical report in respect of the new Hackett River mineral resource estimate. Consequently, the Company has not had an opportunity to fully review or assess the assumptions, parameters or methods used by Xstrata to make such estimate, although it has no reason to believe that such estimate is not reliable. Accordingly, the Company is currently working to complete its own mineral resource estimate based upon Xstrata's field work as well as a technical report. The Company expects that it will publish its new mineral resource estimate for Hackett River later this month.
    Bathurst Inlet Port & Road Project "BIPR"
    The BIPR project has been in the planning stages in Nunavut for many years and contemplates building a deep water port in Bathurst Inlet (approximately 80 km to the east of Hackett River and 70 km to the north of Back River) and an all weather road connecting the port to existing ice roads which service the Ekati and Diavik mines from Yellowknife, NWT. Significant infrastructure as contemplated within the BIPR project necessary for the shipping of concentrates from the proposed Hackett River project could also be utilized to support operations at the Company's proposed Back River gold project.
    The Company and Xstrata are joint proponents of BIPR and have been waiting for approval from the Nunavut Impact Review Board ("NIRB") to be able to re-engage in the environmental assessment of the project. On May 8, 2013, the NIRB gave their approval to re-engage and provided an addendum to the existing guidelines for an environmental impact statement for the project. A draft environmental impact statement on the project is being prepared by Xstrata and will be filed with the NIRB later this year.
    Consequently, Sabina and Xstrata are working to finalize a partnership agreement on BIPR that will outline terms of use and commitments going forward. This agreement will be announced once completed.
    Q1 Financials
    Highlights of the quarter include:
    Cash of 104.2 million at March 31, 2013.
    On February 15, 2013, the Company announced an updated resource estimate for Back River. The new mineral resource is comprised of measured and indicated resources of 24.2 million tonnes grading 6.0 g/t for 4.7 million ounces of gold, and inferred resources of 7.7 million tonnes grading 7.8 g/t for 1.9 million ounces of gold increasing confidence, grade and ounces.
    Also in February, the Company announced its work program for Back River for approximately 45,000 - 50,000 meters of drilling. Goose exploration camp opened in January 2013 and drilling is ongoing with eight drill rigs operating on Goose and George.
    Work on the Back River Gold pre-feasibility study continues and is expected to be completed in Q3, 2013.
    Financial Results
    For the quarter ended March 31, 2013, the Company reported a net loss of $3.7 million compared to a loss of $4.2 million in 2012. The decrease of $0.5 million was the net result of lower income tax expense and lower share based payment expense partially offset by increased salaries, decreased amortization of flow-through premium and decreased interest income.
    The company had cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $104.2 million at March 31, 2013 compared to cash and cash equivalents of $116.4 million at December 31, 2012.
    For the full Q1, 2013 interim financial statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis, please see the Company website at www.sabinagoldsilver.com.
     
  8. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I am going to apologize for now and in the future for not being computer savvy enough to block the obvious advertising plugs in excerpts I try to post. The advertisers are pretty darn slick at blocking attempts to do the same since that is how they make their money. Sorry and DYODD before you buy


    The United States Has a Nuclear Problem

    By Marin Katusa

    Back in 2008 during the second presidential debate, Obama had an extremely optimistic goal: to be completely "free of dependence on Middle Eastern oil" by 2018, since according to him, being dependent on other people's energy is "bad for our national security."

    Then why does the US currently need to import more than 90% of its domestic consumption of uranium? How can America even pretend to be on the path of energy independence without solving this uranium problem? As the world depends more and more on nuclear power, can the US continue to secure friendly sources of uranium?

    In order to look deeper into the question, we have interviewed some of the most well-respected people in the sector and created a free, online video event titled The Myth of American Energy Independence: Is Nuclear the Ultimate Contrarian Investment?

    Below are some excerpts from the interviews which I conducted:

    Spencer Abraham, former US Secretary of Energy, highlighted what the US will be up against in the future: "We're entering into a time in which there is going to be a lot of demand and therefore competition for the nuclear fuel to run nuclear reactors."




    Lady Barbara Judge, chairman emeritus of the UK Atomic Energy Authority, discussed the importance of having a secure and stable source of energy: "I think it's very important when you think about nuclear to think about the fact that you need the lights on, controlled by your own country so that it is there when you want it to be."




    Herb Dhaliwal, the former Canadian Minister of Natural Resources, states that he has "no doubt" that the future is "very good for uranium" and that "in the longer term, uranium prices are going to go up."




    Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott US Holdings, added this: "So once again, you have a choice: either the uranium price goes up or the lights go out."




    Amir Adnani, CEO of Uranium Energy Corp., sums up America's problem in a simple statement: "The US is more dependent right now on foreign uranium than on foreign oil."




    And to conclude on just how profitable this sector could be, I will once again borrow the words of Rick Rule:

    "There were a lot of people who added a zero to their net worth as a consequence [of the last uranium bull]. Suppose one only did half as well and their net worth only went up five times; would that be sufficient for most of your viewers?"

    I would definitely be happy with a 500% increase to my net worth.

    Would you?


    Ok, I got lucky this time, but I warned you in the future
     
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  9. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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  10. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    My head is starting to spin! Am I (are we here) the ultimate contrarian indicators for uranium?

    Just as I told SAGI I was closing my positions in pallidin and dennison, holding (my nose) with Greenland and waiting to go "cash" with uranium 1, all of the "writers" come out of the woodwork with these uranium tales. What gives?

    I'm posting this with the "credits" if someone is interested.



    The Resurgence of the Nuclear Reactor



    By Adam J. Crawford, Junior Analyst

    In August 1956, the Calder Hall Power Plant in Seascale, England began generating electricity and earned the distinction of being the world's first commercial nuclear power plant. It was a humble beginning for nuclear power; the plant only had a 50-megawatt (MW) output capacity, whereas the smallest US plant today has a 478 MW capacity. Nonetheless, Calder Hall represented the launch of a new era in energy that promised to bring electricity too cheap to meter.

    But early on, the promising power source had its detractors. They objected to the high initial cost of constructing nuclear plants, the problems of radioactive waste disposal, and the risks of nuclear accidents and nuclear proliferation.

    The detractors had an impact. The heavy regulation they pushed for and the litigation they initiated extended construction times and drove up construction costs. But despite their efforts, over 100 reactors had been placed in service in the United States by 1974.

    Then came 1979 and a landmark event – the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island. In the aftermath, public opinion turned solidly in favor of the anti-nuclear movement, several construction projects were canceled, and no new US building permits for nuclear power plants were issued for the next 33 years.

    Though the US abandoned nuclear expansion in the 1980s, other countries forged ahead. Worldwide startups peaked in 1984 and 1985, as over 30 plants were brought online in each of those years. However, escalating regulatory and litigation costs and pressure groups were not unique to the US. By the 1980s, it was becoming difficult to cost-justify new projects. On top of all that, the Chernobyl accident occurred in 1986, and the world had its own Three Mile Island moment.

    In the 1990s, global startups fell to an annual average of less than six per year; in the first decade of the new century, average annual startups were just over three per year. In fact, since 1990 there have barely been enough startups to offset shutdowns.



    The recent flurry of closures was caused to a great extent by yet another accident. After the earthquake and tsunami in Japan on March 11, 2011 and the ensuing catastrophe at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, several countries began to rethink their nuclear energy policies. In May 2011, Germany announced that it would abandon nuclear energy entirely, shutting down all 17 of its plants by 2022. In June 2011, Italian citizens voted overwhelmingly in favor of a referendum to cancel plans for new reactors. The Japanese Cabinet, though unclear about a specific plan, has issued a white paper calling for less reliance on nuclear power.

    So is nuclear on its last legs? It would appear so... but before we make the funeral arrangements, let's take a closer look.

    A Nuclear Renaissance
    In the wake of the Fukushima disaster, much of the attention in the Western world has been on the nuclear power debate, plant shutdowns, and project cancelations. Meanwhile, those in developing countries recognize the harsh reality that something has to be done to produce more power. Driven by population growth and increasing standards of living, future demand for energy in those countries will be strong, if not overwhelming.

    The International Energy Agency forecasts that global demand for electricity will grow by a staggering 70% between 2012 and 2035. The increase will come predominantly from developing countries – over half is expected from China and India alone.

    Serious pollution problems mean that those developing countries cannot produce all that electricity by burning coal. Amir Adnani, Uranium Energy Corporation's CEO, says, "The plans to develop nuclear power in China and other countries are very much driven by a set of realities that is very different and very acute. People are dying every year in China, literally choking to death, because of all the toxins that are being put into the environment by burning coal."

    This explains why China, India, and the Russian Federation are quietly forging ahead with nuclear energy expansion while the West and Japan fret over it. As you can see in the table below, those developing countries are dominant leaders in the construction of nuclear facilities.

    Country Nuclear Plants in Operation Nuclear Plants Under Construction
    Argentina 2 1
    Armenia 1 0
    Belgium 7 0
    Brazil 2 1
    Bulgaria 2 0
    Canada 19 0
    China, Mainland 17 29
    China, Taiwan 6 2
    Czech Republic 6 0
    Finland 4 1
    France 58 1
    Germany 9 0
    Hungary 4 0
    India 20 7
    Iran 1 0
    Japan 50 3
    Korea 23 3
    México 2 0
    Netherlands 1 0
    Pakistan 3 2
    Romania 2 0
    Russian Federation 33 11
    Slovakian Federation 4 2
    Slovenia 1 0
    South Africa 2 0
    Spain 8 0
    Sweden 10 0
    Switzerland 5 0
    Ukraine 15 2
    UAE 0 1
    United Kingdom 16 0
    United States 104 1
    Total 437 67

    Source: European Nuclear Society

    It typically takes about six years to complete a plant once it is under construction, so the 67 facilities shown above should be producing electricity soon. In addition, over 100 reactors are at various stages of planning and permitting.

    So it looks like the needs of developing countries will be more than enough to revitalize and sustain the nuclear-power industry. As for the developed countries, many still heavily rely on nuclear energy, and that won't change anytime soon. In fact, the reliance may only increase in the coming years.

    Though many developed countries have been cool at best and hostile at worst toward nuclear energy expansion, a more conciliatory approach may be required in the future. That's because many of the same people who are concerned about the risks and costs of nuclear power are even more concerned about global warming. That means fossil fuels and the carbon dioxide they emit must be limited.

    But what will be used other than fossil fuels? The hope was wind and solar, but the inefficiencies, high costs, and intermittent nature of these two energy sources make them unlikely candidates for widespread use. What's left is nuclear.

    On February 9, 2012, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a license for two new nuclear reactors in Georgia, the first in over 30 years. This could be a sign of more approvals to come. But what could eventually really ignite a nuclear expansion are the promising technology advancements that are being developed.

    Nuclear Technological Developments
    Small Modular Reactors:

    You've heard of the mini-brewery and the mini-steel mill; now meet the mini-nuclear reactor. Commonly known as "small modular reactors" or SMRs, these reactors are tiny compared to conventional ones. However, with capacities reaching up to 300 MW (power sufficient to supply 45,000 homes) they pack plenty of punch to have practical commercial application. Here are some advantages that SMRs offer:

    •They are cheaper to construct and operate than conventional reactors.
    •They can be standardized and factory built, a much more efficient process than on-site construction.
    •They can be set up in groups to provide however much power an area needs. Grouping would allow for a unit to be taken offline for repairs, maintenance, or replacement without an interruption of service. On the flip side, more units can be easily added if an area's power needs increase.
    •They can basically run themselves with little on-site supervision.
    •They can be stored underground, which enhances security.
    Most important, because they are small and use less fuel, they are easier to cool, which greatly reduces the risk of a meltdown.



    Small Modular Reactor

    Some SMRs can even run on what was once considered nuclear waste. For example, a Bill Gates-backed company, TerraPower, is developing a reactor that burns depleted uranium. Depleted uranium burns very slowly, so TerraPower's reactor could theoretically run for decades without the need for a fill-up. This is an exciting development. Unfortunately, the TerraPower reactor only exists as a prototype on a PC. This means that it will take several years before it could possibly make its debut on the power grid.

    In fact, most SMRs are still in the very early stages of development, with many challenges to be met and many questions to be answered. However, the concept has enough promise to induce the US government to invest in its pursuit. If it proves to be viable, this technology could really shake up the energy scene.

    Thorium Reactors:

    Imagine a cheap, plentiful atomic fuel that could provide safe, emissions-free power for hundreds of years without refueling and without any risk of nuclear proliferation. That fuel is thorium, and proponents claim it eludes many of the pitfalls of today's nuclear energy.

    Robert Rapier, chief technology officer and executive vice president at Merica International, says:

    "Longer term, commercialization of thorium reactors would dramatically reduce (although not totally eliminate) the risk of nuclear-weapon proliferation. Thorium is abundant relative to uranium, and thorium does not have to undergo the enrichment process that uranium requires. Further, thorium reactors have little risk of melting down because climbing temperatures will decrease the power output, eliminating the runaway reaction possibility present in a uranium-fueled reactor. Thus, these reactors would naturally tend toward the fail-safe state. The primary disadvantage is that thorium reactors are still mainly at the experimental stage, and therefore commercial viability has not yet been clearly demonstrated."

    Pebble-Bed Reactors:

    The pebble-bed reactor concept was first introduced way back in the 1940s. The US, Germany, and South Africa have experimented with the technology over the years, but it is the Chinese who have persisted in the experiment and plan to implement the technology in two reactors near the Yellow Sea.

    Under the pebble-bed design, uranium fuel rods are replaced with tennis-ball-sized graphite spheres that contain tiny beads of uranium, and helium (instead of water) is used as a coolant. A New York Times piece provides a simple explanation of how the technology works:

    "Rather than using conventional fuel rod assemblies…(pebble-bed reactors) use hundreds of thousands of billiard-ball-size fuel elements, each cloaked in its own protective layer of graphite.

    "The coating moderates the pace of nuclear reactions and is meant to ensure that if the plant had to be shut down in an emergency, the reaction would slowly stop on its own and not lead to a meltdown.

    "The reactors (are) cooled by non-explosive helium gas instead of depending on a steady source of water – a critical problem with the damaged reactors at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant. And unlike those reactors, (pebble-bed) reactors are designed to gradually dissipate heat on their own, even if the coolant is lost."

    Challenges remain for pebble-bed reactors, and some environmentalists oppose the technology. They point to the fact that the volume of radioactive waste increases under the pebble-bed design, but do concede that pebble-bed waste is far less radioactive per ton than spent uranium fuel rods.

    These technological developments in the nuclear-reactor space are promising and certainly worth keeping an eye on... but it's unlikely that anything disruptive will hit the mainstream anytime soon.

    So from an investment standpoint, this means that the best and most immediate way to play the nuclear trend is not the companies that make the reactors, but the companies that mine the fuel for the reactors.

    The Coming Uranium Bull Market
    There are a number of supply and demand circumstances that appear to be forming a perfect storm for bullish uranium prices. From the demand side, the 67 new reactors that we discussed earlier will be coming online in the near future.

    On the supply side, there isn't enough uranium being mined to meet current reactor requirements, let alone new facility requirements. According to the World Nuclear Association, there was a 40-million-pound uranium production gap in 2011. It is unlikely that that gap will be closed at current prices; miners claim that their production costs average $85 per pound. With spot prices at about $40 per pound, miners have no incentive to bring new capacity online.

    Another factor affecting the supply side is the coming end of the Megatons to Megawatts program. Under this arrangement, the US and Russia agreed to convert high-enriched uranium from Russia's dismantled weapons arsenal into low-enriched uranium for use in power plants. This secondary source provides about 15% of the US's annual supply of uranium. However, the program will expire later this year and when it does, the production gap will widen. Guess what will happen to uranium prices. That's right: they'll skyrocket.

    Intrigued yet? Want some more specific investment advice? Help is on the way. Marin Katusa and the Casey Research Energy Team are on top of the emerging opportunity in uranium and have assembled a panel of world-renowned energy experts to discuss it in further depth in an upcoming webinar titled The Myth of American Energy Independence: Is Nuclear the Ultimate Contrarian Investment? The webinar premiers at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday May 21, 2013 and is free of charge. In addition, all attendees will receive a free copy of our new Global Resource Intelligence Report on uranium (a $29 value). I urge you to reserve your seat today.
     
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  11. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Two sides to the coin FP while the opponents of Uranium get their publishing machinery going so do the proponents of Uranium. Each one providing valid arguments! However the one thing that most people choose to forget is that when fundamentals gain strength no force can stop it. The problem with fundamentals is that they are governed by market economics and are at best slow and ponderous taking an eternity to gather pace, however once that pace is gathered like our nuclear reactors cannot be stopped easily.

    SAGI
     
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  12. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!




    BANANAS & URANIUM



    This week I have been a little lethargic. Partly because there is not much action in the markets. That’s not quite right. The dow and the S&P continue to move up. I am as usual taking a contrarian outlook and waiting for a signal that it is tanking. …which it is not. We are presently in uncharted territory as neither has been this high in the past. The amazing thing electronic pump ups can do. I wonder……in the future will we also get a software heart? Perhaps, not just a mechanical one but one that regulates when we walk or when we run or do strenuous exercises and is not a ox you need to carry in a back pack?

    Gold has continued to drop with expected support between 1360 and 1330…a break below this would lead to testing of 1250. On several occasions I have said it is unlikely but retesting of previous lows is always a bad sign of things to come especially before any resistance points are reached. Gold will begin to move up when we see the equities correct. For the moment the bulls have the equities. When we see a euphoric rise which is imminent we will be ready. For the time being the price action shows that any bulls are simply being cut off and though the drop is not phenomenal it is reasonably strong to show that the bears are controlling the market in gold. In short there are more sellers in the markets not taking profits and they have not run out of these as yet. We will have a breather soon that may show a pause in the gold price and even at that point I would hesitate until I see an actual exhaustion of sellers. For the moment I believe that we may see some pause at 1360 but if the move does not pass 1400 but simply rises to 1380-1390 and looses momentum it would be time to take profits short term. For the longer term players I suggest you wait on the side lines for the time being.

    There is no news of any power station reopening in Japan though several applications have been made to restart some. A total of 8 power station applications have been made and they are awaiting the green light. That tells us that all their maintenance has been done and they have been checked by their engineers so now awaiting approval. Hopefully by July they will get the green light to begin these. This may provide the encouragement that is so needed in these markets. My gut tells me that we should see some movement by the end of July or August but logic tells me to sit tight and wait for confirmation.

    Alternative energy is going a little askew after the drop in the prices of solar panels and a number of Chinese companies are going bust. Your best bet in this market is TSL or Trina solar. Most of these companies have toxic loans or have been massively subsidized by local government funds to keep up employment and with the solar panel prices having dropped in the last two years and Europe which was their biggest market having withdrawn their subsidies has made it very difficult for the companies. First solar at one time was valued at over 300 dollars. It dropped all the way to 11 dollars. Currently it is valued at around 50 dollars. Trina was valued at over 30 dollars and now is valued at 5.50. Does this make them good buys?

    Fundamentally long term we could say that solar will play a part in the future. We will find more and more households considering the extra cost as a way to hedge the future price of power. In short if your investment is based around the philosophy of the coming thirty to fifty years this is a good time to buy both solar and Uranium. A ‘buy and forget’ attitude. It’s a good way to make money in the longer term but its also a good way to loose a large part of your portfolio if you have penny stocks in it.

    If you are looking at a long term portfolio it has to be carefully hedged with carefully calculated ratios to allow you to hedge your bets. You would on the majority hold larger blue chip potentials. So for example if you were considering an alternative energy portfolio thinking that in the future alternative energy will play a vital part I would consider placing a large part (10%) of your allocation in Cameco for Uranium, First Solar for solar, You would also consider wind as well as nuclear power developers such as Areva (5%). In the smaller miners you may place 1% of your allocation in 3 to four explorers and 2% in two or three mid cap stocks making up roughly about 30% and the remainder remains in cash to give you some interest. This makes up out side your main deposit of cash which remains untouched.

    We learn from nature. It’s the best teacher I have found to date, if only one was to pause and sit down to await the lesson. Sometimes it may take a few moments and sometimes it may take a life time. Did you “for example” know that the Banana is a type of grass. Perhaps many will know that the bamboo is also a type of grass. They say that only a fool sleeps in a bamboo grove for the shoots that come out overnight are so sharp that they will go right through your body leaving you embedded, hmmm perhaps that’s a forest myth, but banana is an interesting plant. Did you know that it will only bear fruit once. Here is the interesting thing about being a banana farmer. One has to have the right climate, humidity, and sunlight to get the fruit, when you do you get ONE chance to pick up the fruit. Take it in too early and it will never ripen, take it too late and its wasted and your entire investment in a banana plantation can go to waste. The fruit and the trees need to be cut down and await the next season, by that time you could be a banana picker on someone else’s plantation instead of being a plantation owner. The owner/planter has a very small window of opportunity to cut the bananas and get them to the packer for export. If there is a blemish or a certain percentage is blemished they all get rejected and you get a margin call. You then have to wait for six months to a year perhaps before you get another opportunity to try your hand. If you have not learnt your lesson by then you will be out on the footpath waiting for the truck to take you to another plantation. With so many variables in place the farmer still makes money if he is able to time everything right. We are currently in the same position as traders/investors. We have an infinite number of variables and we must place all possible points in our favor before we invest. You are probably thinking to yourself that there is nothing new here but human psychology is such that we like to forget painful events. We do not want to wound ourselves, but soldiers train in another method, they remember the wounds because it is about self-preservation and if we can remember the pain it makes us sensitive to it and instinctively the will to survive is heightened. In the same way we must not forget the wounds of losses in the past. Rather quite the opposite we must learn to be sensitive to the sighs so that if we do come across them we can recognize and react to them to survive.

    The uranium sector is slow, ponderous and takes time to start up. The product is surrounded by obstacles and gates, which do not allow it to gather speed easily. When it does gather speed something monumental must occur to break it down as Fukushima did. Once more the stars appear to be aligning themselves in favor of Uranium. We are near the bottom or we are at the bottom. We require a massive battery to restart this engine and it’s missing. If it does restart likes its product it will have energy to keep moving for a long time. Like the banana we only have one chance to grow and harvest this crop. If we loose it we will be working on someone else’s plantation so timing is everything. We have but a few chances to crank this engine up when we do find that battery. One of these chances will be the restart of the Japanese reactors, another would be the confirmation and approval of a large number of reactors in China. The more they construct the less uranium we have. Leave aside the moratorium clattered field. The ones we require to invest in are the cheapest cost producers and this is lead by Cameco and no one else. Their costs are the lowest in the field and they stand the strongest chance to make good profits if they have not hedged their deposit. Hedge fund interest in Cameco has dropped over the last quarter as out of the 16 funds the previous quarter three have dropped Cameco. In the last 180 days there has been no significant insider buying of Cameco stock either.

    Most people do not understand the way uranium price fluctuates in relation to oil or that it is even related. There is a correlation between uranium and oil. Uranium prices rise with oil prices and investors run to uranium stocks and alternative energy stocks when oil prices move up. It is important to raise the question as to why oil prices have not moved higher. Why is it that knowing oil is a finite product and cannot be created in quantity artificially its price would drop? The reason is that consumption has only risen dramatically in the last thirty years to fifty years and during that same time the technology to use less has also been progressing. We also have the real issue of industries producing less products due to the recession and economic turn down and this has affected the consumption of oil. In fact the consumption of oil in 2009 was less than in 2008, and in 2012 it also dropped compared to 2011. Please see below link of BP world statistics on oil and various other energy as well. http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/data...y-statistics-consumption-reserves-energy#data Consumption has been going up but it is also slowing down at the same time. Recessions do occur and they do run for several years sometimes a decade. The price of uranium is affected by this recession as consumption does drop, but there is also a level beyond which it cannot drop. I do not know that level but it exists. There appears to be a breaking of economic laws as they were taught. Uranium did climb with oil as Oil hit 40 dollars and again up to Fukushima it was climbing at the same rate. Oil is averaging around 90 dollars and we should expect Uranium to be up there except for this anomaly that occurred due to Fukushima. Fukushima is over and while there may be many shorts in the markets both indirectly for Uranium and for other related stocks sooner or later they will wind down.


    The process is slow at best but the slower it is the longer the possibility of a bull run. Consider the process of a tree growing. If it’s a coniferous its quick and soft but an oak tree or a giant red wood takes perhaps hundreds of years to grow. It also means its roots are strong and deep and difficult to up root. Even when it is cut it has a good possibility to grow again. Such woods are never used for paper but only for long lasting furniture or other long term uses. The roots of uranium are ever deepening driving themselves into the very foundations of our society as we continue to become dependent on electricity for our livelihood. I have downloaded the world BP statistics for energy for anyone who wishes to browse through them and provide some analysis of the last few years. Home work for anyone who is interested.

    It is more than obvious that we will continue to have shortages in the production of electricity. While the population growth in Europe is stunted it is not the same case in the far east, past articles show my arguments for more power requirement in these countries as they stride towards greater industrialization and grow their manufacturing base. The demand by all classes of people for electricity continues as wealth in these nations continues to grow and the pace for electricity production continues to lag behind. There are very few countries that have surplus electricity production and usually sell it to countries like Germany which now need it more than ever after their policy to not continue with nuclear power. Sentimentality is all very well but it does not fill stomachs nor does it create wealth. If you really must be green you need to find a patch of shade in the Amazon and sit there.

    While I am all for nuclear I am also aware that I would not like to live next to one and here as usual I am being plain honest. No one wants solar, wind or nuclear in their back yard and in that we humans are typical. However nuclear is more versatile than the others as it can be set up in almost any part of the world and as long as it has water it will work to produce electricity. This is not the case for the other two which are governed by external factors and those that reside in these areas have to lump it in many cases. NIMBY or “Not in my back yard” has become the ethos but I ask; “It has to be in somebody’s back yard so why not mine?” In the longer term we will have to understand and accept the possible risks of nuclear accidents for the greater good that it will do in the long run. The risk of several accidents occurring simultaneously or rapidly following each other is very low. Disasters such as Fukushima are not frequent and can possibly average at one every twenty years. The fall out from such accidents is kept minimum because a great deal of care and attention is paid to safety.

    We see that supply is dwindling as many deposits are uneconomical at such prices, it simply raises the probability of prices rising unless all power units are shut down. Governments do not invest in projects only to shut them down half way as the expenditure is enormous, and the tax burden would be equally heavy in terms of losses. If this was not the solution than what is to handle the rising demand for electricity and to reduce dependence on outside supplies? Most mines are complaining about the prices and would have shut down a long time ago had it not been for the contracts that they agreed on and the prices locked in. New contracts will probably not be agreed on unless they are above 60 dollars a pound. Cigar lake and Mc Arthur lake are the only independent deposits whose costs per pound are around 20 dollars apart from Uranium 1’s selective deposits. Olympic mine may be huge but it still is expensive to mine and BHP has stopped expansion.

    There is a lot of comparison made with the aftermath of 3 mile island and Chernobyl. I do not believe that the present can be repeated or based on past history for the following reasons;

    There were very few power stations being built at the time when 3 mile island happened.

    There were a few more being built when Chernobyl happened but nothing compared to present day construction going on.

    When the US power stations were being built which stretches over thirty years the uranium supply was already catered for through various political affiliations. There was no open market for the material as it is presently. The price of uranium was far lower than it is presently. At the time the average price was around 7 dollars. Oil was roughly about 3 dollars to the barrel until Opec was created and jumped to 7 or 8 dollars and then beyond. The possibility of nuclear power stations being built in the current markets was not there and therefore the demand was less comparatively, as the easier and faster option was coal. With its accelerated use pollution became more focused and it was easier to see the detriment that was being ignored until recently.

    The issue of pollution had not reared up its ugly head at the time and countries were not under pressure to look at alternatives. They are now and under pressure form the rest of the world.

    There were still many opportunities to build hydro electric dams thirty years ago and until the eighties this was the same. This is no longer a possibility as most of the economical locations have already been constructed on.

    By constructing dams countries soon realized that it had an adverse effect on agriculture production as the force of water through the dams had been reduced. The longer term affect was the change in the weather system and the adverse affect on the eco system as well as the few remaining forest areas which were the catchment areas for rainfall. The collection of large areas of water also resulted in the issue of unnatural water precipitation occurring due to unnaturally large amounts of it being vaporized from large bodies of water created before dams.

    After the 3 gorges dam in China realized that there was a limit to the possibility of electricity generation and the option was to use coal. The high number of coal power plants also helped accelerate pollution and global warming.

    We now have a very real situation of pollution and climate change and it is not going to go away any time soon. The pressure is on countries to attempt to slow down the warming of waters in and around the north pole as the ice is rapidly melting. The solution to simply use solar or wind as the major reply to this is simply not cutting it.

    If we are to make a difference we must look at some strong medicine and the only real alternative open to the world is nuclear power. Whether this is achieved through uranium or thorium is immaterial.

    It take on average 6 years to construct a power station, however the design of such stations is standard and the location is not dependent on water catchement or specific geographic locations, nor is each design ad hoc enough to warrant redesigning. Several can be constructed on the same site or on different locations.

    All the above factors should make readers realize that the demand for uranium and eventually thorium can increase and will increase. The demand for power is not going to reduce rather it will increase as human beings continue to strive for a better life and the countries not only in Europe but in the Far East, Middle East, Africa and the balken states want a better living and this will in turn increase demand as peoples lives improve. Heating is no longer a luxury but a necessity.

    Natural gas prices are steadily climbing and where as demand in the past was limited, this is no longer the case. With countries such as Germany importing huge amounts of it. The shale gas in the USA is leading to many companies relocating their plants there due to the cheap gas but this too will not last for a long time as the US begins to realize that there is a price to pay for the cheap gas. It has limits.

    Lastly due to the economically unviable current spot price of uranium a number of possible ventures will close down sooner than we think. A number of producers are already cutting down production and will shut down unprofitable mines. These mines cannot be revamped up easily when the price does come back up. It is therefore prudent for us to consider only the most profitable companies and those with the lowest costs as good options for the moment.

    The question I leave you with is; Is this the right time to invest in uranium?

    I think so. All the arguments above give us strong reasons to consider nuclear power as the most realistic option as a solution for many of our current problems. Like the banana tree we will have but one opportunity to harvest this fruit, but it has to be at the right time and place. I sincerely believe that this year would be the right time to get in.

    With that I take leave of you. Spring is here and I intend to take every opportunity to sip some of the amber nectar.

    Have a great weekend.

    SAGI.:cool1::beerglass:
     
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  13. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  14. albyva

    albyva New Member

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    I think Cameco is a great investment because of a Uranium Shortage in the market.
     
  15. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hmmmm.....I think so too....and welcome to the uranium and alternative energy thread albyva. Would you like to add a little more. Its always great to get readers involved. Please let us have your thoughts.

    SAGI
     
  16. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  17. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  18. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Hey, SAGI

    Fission, Mawson?

    Not fawning over juniors just yet, are you?
     
  19. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    FWIW

    From Casey

    Over the past month, gold has seen a considerable decrease in price, dropping almost 15% since the beginning of May. If this trend continues, gold will have its first losing year since 2000. This has led many investors, from the housewives of China to the bankers on Wall Street, looking for a bargain in gold prices.

    However, what they don't realize is that there is already a bargain available – in uranium. Despite being the source of 20% of electricity in the United States and 35% in the EU, its price remains at multiyear lows.

    Yes, gold has dropped a lot in the past month, but an ounce of gold can still buy almost 35 pounds of uranium at today's prices – that's much more than the historical average of 22 pounds. In fact, back in 2007, an ounce of gold would only net you about five pounds of uranium.



    What does this mean? If you consider paper fiat money to be worthless and gold as real money, then the fact that you can buy more of uranium with gold means that uranium is cheap. Right now, we are clearly in the territory of "uranium is cheap relative to gold." Since these types of ratios have a way of going back to their historical averages, this means that in a gold bull environment, uranium is set to increase even more.
     
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  20. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Aha my fine feline friend..perhaps I am not as rigid as one would think but I have some evil greedy thoughts running through my head but no I am not buying any yet. Lets wait for the trend to settle in for the entire group. Only watch Cameco's price action, its like an index for the group. Its the leader of the pack no need to look at any others but ...we must be aware of what is going on and which has the potential to move up fast. Which one will attract investors the most.

    SAGI
     
  21. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    URPTF?

    SAGI

    Been watching this etf, and wondering if they (as wholesale buyers/sellers of the product) are an accurate barometer for us? Your take, as opposed to solely Cameco? Seems maybe they just don't have the "juice" as a real buyer/seller to be a real indicator.

    Malt over mind right now, but you get the idea.

    :bowdown:
     
  22. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Dear Fellow Investor,

    Today, we received breaking news that an Al-Qaeda splinter group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), launched an attack on the Somair uranium mine in Niger - owned by French uranium giant Areva.

    One employee was killed and 14 wounded. The attacks presumably happened as retaliation for France's recent military intervention against Islamic militants in Mali.

    This will further disrupt global uranium supplies, and emphasizes what the energy experts in our webinar The Myth of American Energy Independence have been saying: Uranium is prime for price increases.

    These attacks are just one more factor that will drive uranium prices higher, on top of:

    1.The imminent end of the Megatons to Megawatts agreement between the US and Russia – an agreement that has provided about 24 million pounds of cheap uranium per year.
    2.Japan's decision to bring its idling 52 nuclear reactors back online – possibly as soon as July of this year. This comeback will instantly add 20 million pounds per year to global uranium demand.
    3.China's reactor building frenzy. Right now, China is building 29 new nuclear reactors – with another 51 in the planning stages. When all is said and done, China will be nearly on par with the US, the world's largest uranium consumer.
    All proof that the time to invest in the best uranium stocks is now… before these shortage-creating events really hit the uranium sector.

    I suggest you watch The Myth of American Energy Independence right now and hear what experts Spencer Abraham, former US secretary of energy; Lady Barbara Judge, Chairman Emeritus of the UK Atomic Energy Authority; and famous resource speculator Rick Rule have to say.

    Get instant access to The Myth of American Energy Independence – Is Nuclear the Ultimate Contrarian Investment?

    To good investing,
    [signature]-Olivier Garret
    Olivier Garret
    CEO, Casey Research


    -
    CASEY RESEARCH
     
  23. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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  24. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  25. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    JUST HOLD ON!




    In the last week the equities market have continued to move up except yesterday on the daily charts of the S&P and the Dow 30 index we have a reversal bar that occurred. This was day before yesterday so there is a possibility of retracement but if we do not see the both markets hitting above their previous highs and continue to move down on Thursday and Friday. (Ach you caught me out- yes I am writing this article on a Thursday morning-sheepish grin- yes I am late writing this article.) Ok so if we see today’s opening and tomorrows opening lower we would enter a sell in the market for Monday or possibly even tomorrow. Still its better to confirm before we go in. It may only be a correction and not necessarily test major lows but there is support at 15000, 14700 and major support at 14500. So that’s a good drop and possible profit from a sell point. In this event we will see uranium stocks suffer more. Well what’s new. However if we do see this support being held then we have a good chance of getting through the summer without too many drops. On the currency side the Australian dollar has had massive drops against the US$ while the $index which is set against a basket of major currencies has also made new highs. What this is telling us is that there is a massive influx of buying into the dollar against the rest of the currencies. The yen has had massive drops and does not look like it wants to make a U turn yet. We have had no pin par reversals. For those that do not understand pin bar reversals here it is. Gold is floundering and I cannot see an immediate pattern appearing and for the lack of one I would suggest the bears are holding strength for the time being. We are seeing it move within certain boundaries and in order for us to confirm a direction it must break out of the support and resistance lines. Support is at 1330 to 1320 and resistance is around 1500. That’s a big gap but there it is staring me right in the face. There is a smaller resistance line around 1450 and it has yet to break but it’s a minor one. Stay away from gold for the time being. I do not like the patterns being created they reek of uncertainty.

    Cameco has issued a strong bearish pin bar or pin bar reversal. It may indicate that the bulls have run out of steam and could not hold the movement upwards. This will have to be confirmed at Thursdays closing and Fridays closing. If we are right Cameco price should drop from here. Pin bars are not always correct but this one appears strong enough. The RSI chart at the bottom is also indicating over bought so one should not purchase Cameco at this point. A drop down to 19.60 is possible at this point. There is support in this area and a stronger support in the 18 dollar region. If the pin bar is wrong we must see the price rise above this point to negate it.

    In the last few weeks we have seen a plathora of writers providing interviews and reports as to how bullish the signs are for Uranium. Lets get this into perspective. First this thread would not be around if we did not think that Uranium had a good potential for becoming a huge bubble. Secondly please ignore writers and their bullish signatures (including myself) and simply look at the price action taking place on the stocks you are interested. If you think that prices should be going up AND they are going down –STAY OUT. If you think prices should be going down AND they are going up –STAY OUT. IF you think that prices should be going up AND they are going UP then GET IN. Place STOP LOSS at daily low and then sit and wait. Check next day and see if any movement did occur. DO NOT change STOP LOSS or fidget or second guess your decision. Just leave it as it is. Some traders will move stop losses up on daily lows. Some will move them up on weekly lows. It really depends on your comfort level of losses. Some will have trailing stop losses fixed at a set number of points or percentage. Which every way you do it depends on your comfort zone and acceptable losses. If you think you are going to make a profit on day one …good luck. It is more likely that your stock will show a loss. Or moving in the opposite direction of the expected. That is why I advice to not look at the intra day price action.

    Its daily hourly or minute movements that will drive you nuts unless you are a day trader. What we are looking for here is a trend and to trade with that trend. All letters give you great ideas for entry points but seem at a loss as to when to get out. Couple of suggestions are look at the price action if you see a pin bar reversal forming place your stop loss a little closer and make sure it not too near to getting dumped out. Many times the bulls loose momentum, a pin bar occurs we think reversal and then we get a drop which turns into another pinbar reversal or simply begins to move up surpassing the first top of the first pin bar. Now we find that stop losses have been hit we are out and the price has continued to move on. This thread is not about teaching price action but I just wanted to give a heads up to readers as to what to look for and suggest that they develop a strategy which will enable them to come out with profits at the end of the day. Trends can continue for days, weeks, months or years as in the case of gold. I think this year we are seeing a correction in gold and despite many thinking it’s the end I would like to look at the longer term price action on a monthly basis and see if this is true. On a weekly chart the trend is downwards. Let us not ignore that. In Uranium we are; ‘what appears to be’ at the bottom. Getting into the action at the bottom is the best euphoric feeling but catching a falling knife is painful so wait for the reversal to occur before you actually get in. Let the moving averages on a weekly basis confirm that it is moving up or even on a daily basis. Using the 20 and 50 day sma makes sense. Ok so now everyone is looking at the cameco chart and noting the SMA blue and red lines crossing….hang on look at the pin bar reversal that just occurred. It’s a warning so wait for it to loose momentum if it occurs and then if the lines are still intact and fairly separated and diverging then great get in. Otherwise cross your arms and sit tight.

    The next chart is for Toronto opening or NY opening but the day is not over CCO has moved further down as expected. If this continues we could have further down or neutral days with the trend having turned in the short term. Note the drawing in heavy black which is explained on this chart. If we do eventually get an opposite pin to the first chart but at support level which would be the bottom turn around previously at roughly 18 dollars this would then indicate a good time to take a shot at Cameco.

    These candle stick indicators do not always work out but they do place the probability on your side.

    The third chart (Black chart) is the daily for the S&P 500 where we have undecided action we have an up side candlewick followed the next day with a downside candlewick. Since the day has not closed this could change with NY closing so we will wait. Always wait for the day to close before taking a decision, never make a decision to buy or sell based on intraday activity. A lot can change so HOLD ON.

    We let our emotions make decisions for us. We do it on a daily basis. The most thinking is required in a stress situation. THINK before you decide to take an action. We often let rip in moments of high emotions and anger. STOP. Think first and keep every thing shut down until that process is complete before deciding to take action. We often spoil matters when we do that. Action and reaction are probably the most common reasons that relations not only in stocks but us as human beings are spoilt. A good position can be spoilt because we panicked or let our emotions take control. That is why it is important to make a decision to BUY, place STOP LOSSES, and EXITS before we take the first step. Once you have made a plan learn to FOLLOW IT THROUGH.

    We do this both for profit and loss. We cut our wins short. And let our losses run. Ideally we should be doing the opposite. We humans have this ridiculous notion of hope. “I hope she comes back.” “I hope he lives.”
    “I hope I win the lottery.” I hope I hope I hope ….. Well the last one has a stop loss set in and the loss is 1 dollar. Hope is hopeless when it comes to the lottery. Everyone has a stop loss in that. We should actually stop calling it stop loss and simply call it “HOPE LOSS”. You do not let your losses run into thousands of dollars in the lottery but you let your losses in the biggest lottery run into massive runs. Why? If you are wrong, what is the point of hopeing you are right? YOU ARE WRONG! Accept it! Once you do you do then you have the option to make the right decision.

    The problems begin to multiply when we begin to average down on a price of the stock. Again, we should not do this, rather quite the opposite, average up on your wins and cut your losses on your loosing stocks. If there is one thing I have learnt in all my time of investing it is that you will be more wrong than right, and that no matter what research you do on a company remember that the company owners are only feeding information that they want you to know and the information that they do not want you to know is being circulated among them selves. However we do have one ace up our sleeve, we simply own paper and no real company. We can sell or purchase at any time but since we do not know all the information we can only make a decision based on a reflection of the information. That reflection is the image we call the price action. Everything we need to know about the true story is reflected in the price action, it tells us if something is going right…or…wrong. Based on this we can either short the stock or go long on it. The stock matters little. It can be a tech or a bio tech or a transport stock. However one thing you must always take into consideration is which way is the entire sector going. If the sector is going up than the stock you are looking at has a better chance if its doing the same. If it is doing the opposite to the sector you are taking a greater risk. Learn the method of reading the candle sticks. The candle sticks tell you the whole story of the stock. You do not need the information about the company. All it does is feed your ego and at the end of the day the stock company owners are sales men. Their job is to get the money off you. They need your money to finance them. Without you they are nothing. Use that power by seeing what is happening to the price. Use it to be on the right side of the trade and like a surfer ride that wave. Warning! Do not try to ride every wave or you will crash on the reefs. Be discreet and select the right wave.

    With currencies there is a lot of volatility since countries and banks require to make payments and changes on a daily basis. Along side this they are also in the markets to make large sums of money but they play with huge amounts and a 20 basis point or a 50 basis point change is huge for them. Each bank may allow their traders to play with anywhere from a million dollars to half a billion dollars. These huge amounts make massive changes in the currency markets. The good thing about the forex markets is that it enables stock traders to use the same ethos to trade stocks but a far slower pace. Since we use daily charts we get time to get in and out of trades rather than waiting for small bumps we wait for trends. A good way to master these trends and find a method that works well I advice opening a simulation account with one of the forex companies which is free of charge and trade currencies for a little while just to get your bearings and understand the intricacies of price action and what to look for to enter and to exit trades. Try to keep it simple using only support and resistance lines and pin bars to gage if the price will go up or down. Do not be afraid to exit if things do not work out as you predicted. If you find it difficult to find a simulator here is one that can help www.FXCM.com

    When it comes to Uranium we must take into consideration that there are a number of things working in the favor of the bulls. First the fundamentals pointed out in last weeks and the week before coffee article, secondly the fact that a number of companies have been bought out by the larger companies and this indicates that they are hedging on a bullish market for uranium in the long term. Many of the smaller companies do not have the finance and are finding it difficult to raise finance in the current markets and this has lead to a number of them becoming either inactive or completely closed. Stay away from such companies no matter how attractive the price looks.

    For now I re-iterate consider only the producers and for the time being simply keep an eye on them and an opportunity will avail itself in June or July when you will get an opportunity to purchase at lower prices. Having said that let me protect my self and also state that if the price for cameco does not drop in the coming month we will be purchasing on a trend change with the 20 over 50 SMA line. The purchase will be made in small lots and averaging up .

    At the end of the day we need to understand that we do not control anything nor can we predict anything. What we can do and take decisions from is our observations and the easiest, perhaps the most obvious is price action. Every single day the news about the eminent conclusion of the Mega tones to mega watts program makes a resounding gong alerting more and more people to the possibility that there will be a shortage and every single day new interested individuals enter the net to look up information on such news and look up related stocks to this possibility. The smaller the stock the less news it has and the less likely it is to be noticed earlier on. Think about your own entry into the field and consider the stock you thought of or came across because these are the same ones that new investors will come across. They are the ones that have survived and not the smallest stocks in the market. It does not matter if mega tones to mega watts does affect/not affect the actual market. What matters is what people think will happen. Learn to differentiate the two.

    We have another merger/takeover happening and this time its Strathmore minerals being bought out by energy fuels. How a web we weave. First we had the partnership between Dennison and cameco, then we had Dennison do a deal with energy fuels, then we saw the buying out of JNR and Fission which was a spin off from Strathmore which converted to Fission uranium by Dennison. We also have energy fuel owning 16.5% of the coles uranium deposit in Virginia which is considered to be the largest in the US. All roads lead to Dennison and that road eventually leads to Cameco. Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road……

    Have great weekend.

    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     

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  26. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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  27. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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  28. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    SAGI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Wake up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    De dum, de dum. You missed a scoop.

    Someone else is shouldering the load. Hear, hear!

    Nice to get the big guys to do some of the heavy lifting for a change. FWIW

    This is a Casey piece



    African Instability Threatens French Energy



    By Marin Katusa

    Last week, suicide bombers launched attacks on two different towns in the West African nation of Niger – one on a military barracks in Agadez, and the other one on the Somair uranium mine in Arlit, owned by the French conglomerate AREVA. The jihadist group MUJAO (Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa) has claimed responsibility for both bombings, stating that they were targeting "the enemies of Islam in Niger."

    The assault on the uranium mine left one dead and 14 injured, and was successful in damaging the crushing and grinding units, halting the mine's production. The importance of this mine in the uranium sector cannot be understated: it accounts for roughly 5% of the global output and more than 20% of AREVA's total production. The Somair mine is a key source of supply for France's 58 nuclear reactors which, in turn, provide more than 75% of the electricity generated in France.

    This is not the first time AREVA's operation has been attacked: In 2010, seven employees of an AREVA subsidiary were kidnapped from their homes in Arlit. Four of the hostages are still being held by the militants at this time.

    And it will definitely not be the last.

    The recent French military intervention in nearby Mali has aggravated the Islamists in the region: MUJAO spokesmen stated that they "attacked France and Niger because of [Niger's] cooperation with France in the war against Sharia," a clear indication that the French presence is not welcomed by these terrorist organizations.

    This first bombing is just the beginning – MUJAO and its allies will likely stop at nothing to see France's uranium production facilities burn to the ground.

    Africa is not an easy place to do business: problems with security, bureaucracy, and infrastructure plague many nations on this continent.

    So why does AREVA – a company which is mostly owned by the French public sector – remain to mine uranium in this dangerous area? The vulnerability of AREVA's operations is apparent, and the French cannot afford any more disruption in their uranium supply.

    The reality is simple: there are just not that many places in the world where uranium concentrations are high enough to make economic development worthwhile. Even fewer of these jurisdictions have the political climate to make the exploration, development, and production of uranium possible. Where are these places? Where are the places companies are avoiding? Which companies are already mining? And most importantly, how would investors be able to profit?

    These are all questions that we have answered in our latest webinar, The Myth of American Energy Independence, for which we interviewed some of the most well-respected experts in the uranium sector, including:

    •Spencer Abraham, former US Secretary of Energy
    •Lady Barbara Judge, chairman emeritus of the UK Atomic Energy Authority
    •Herb Dhaliwal, the former Canadian Minister of Natural Resources
    •Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott US Holdings; and
    •Amir Adnani, CEO of Uranium Energy Corp.
    Because if there is anything that the attacks on AREVA's Somair mine in Arlit has shown us, it is that the uranium supply chain is actually quite fragile, and countries will be fighting each other in order to acquire safer sources of uranium. This may be a problem for politicians… but it provides a great opportunity for investors.
     
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  29. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    More FWIW from Casey

    Additional Links and Reads
    Kentucky Operator to Cease Enrichment of Uranium (New York Times)

    What little enrichment capacity the United States had is now gone with closing of this plant. While there is still a large inventory of enriched uranium, the United States will have to rely more on Russia by importing already enriched uranium. This news comes after the temporary closing of the US's only conversion plant, Converdyn. The United States does not have significant downstream uranium infrastructure, which may result in adhering to pricing dictated by other countries, namely Russia.

    Nuclear power Is the Future for India (Business Standard)

    Russia already has a strong presence in India's nuclear sector; however, more entrenching means a significant windfall when India hits full stride in its development. Since China does not need to rely on Russia as much for its nuclear development, the second-largest market would be India, something that Russia has recognized. India will be a huge market for Russia in the future.
     
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  30. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    What a week!

    And then this.....

    •Europe’s rabid search for “green” fuels, sparked by the European Commission’s goal — set in 2007 — to reduce Europe’s greenhouse-gas emissions by 20% before 2020, has created a buying frenzy for American wood chips to use in European power plants, as opposed to coal.
    •After solar and wind couldn’t achieve the stated goals, the Commission decided wood can be considered renewable as long as it comes from a place where the trees will grow back. Logging companies replant wooded areas in order to harvest a new crop when the planted trees mature. Logging is perfectly legal in the U.S., while in much of Europe it is not.

    The stars are starting to align
     
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  31. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Errrrrrr.........Grrrrrrrrrrrrr........... Sorry FP but good of you take up the cross. I was visiting relatives in Scotland. On the way had a chance to see those beautiful wind generators in action. In the fog they looked like they were right out of a Science fiction movie. Took three days off and all hell breaks loose. Ach never mind. Sad to say that I have not written a single line for the next coffee break. Will catch up and dash out one by the weekend I hope.

    SAGI
     
  32. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    THE ILLUSION OF REALITY.



    Good Morning! Thank you for inviting me in. I suggest we have more whisky in our coffee today. I dare suggest that you may be pulling some hair out by the time we depart.

    London is a little cold and it appears that the weather patterns are definitely changing. In 45 years since I have visited and lived in the UK I have never ever seen a spring that is as cold as this one with temperatures falling to around 5 or 6 degrees in June. During the day we are lucky at present to see temperatures at 15 degrees C. Climate change is taking place and I am a first hand witness to this. My bones feel the cold far quicker than many. Despite extreme cases countries continue to struggle making a decision as to how they will tackle future energy requirements. In the last few weeks we saw two startling things occurred. One was that a battery recharging company set up to handle recharging of cars like petrol stations went into receivership and this occurred in Israel on the other side of the world Tesla the vehicle company I mentioned a few years ago is moving up in terms of advancing a car that will be able to travel from LA to New York. Stock prices move up on news and I am not sure of how long Tesla can sustain the interest. We will wait and see. It could be a break through or … http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/30/autos/elon-musk-tesla-supercharger/ it could be just a show case thing. An hour is a lot less than a day but it still means that if there are a hundred cars getting recharged its going to take a while. A charge up after every couple of hours is still not practical. The other side of the coin is that the consumption of electricity will increase in the long run and there has to be a reasonable source that will allow for this to be catered for at a reasonable price. This can only mean that the US will eventually realize the demand requirement and have to make plans for a major restructuring of power supply.

    The recent news of terrorist attacks in the Niger and other parts of Africa especially on uranium mines is detrimental to the regular supply of the material and this can only be good news for prices and stocks of those companies that are based in more stable areas such as Canada and Australia. Terrorists like normal human beings apparently hate the cold as well as the heat.

    For every single mine there is a price to pay, regardless of whether its gold, silver, aluminum or uranium. There will be issues with the environment and this is the cost of having the resources that we will need to continue to make progress in the world. It is impossible to have a world with progress without pollution of one sorts or another. Extremism in any format is wrong. If we cannot understand the predicament that we are currently in than we are doomed to failure and must move back into the mountains. While I do not advocate pollution I also understand the impracticality of trying to mine without any kind of damage as it is the very nature of the action that will affect the environment. If trees are destroyed they must be re-grown, if land is mined it must be eventually returned to its natural state, however all this takes time and costs money and that burden must be taken up by the consumer in the end as the cost of the material. If they refuse to do this than the material is not worth mining.

    Alpha minerals and Fission Uranium which was previously Fission Resources has been a lot in the news lately as the latest Hathor type deposit. While Fission did not move much despite being an equal partner Alpha moved a lot. I am not buying into Alpha for the time being rather I am willing to be patient and wait to see how things turn out. Perhaps I will miss a chance but after taking so many losses I am not willing to risk on an explorer. Rather I would like to wait for a while and continue to concentrate on our three or four producers with the thesis that if they do not move up than neither can Alpha’s rise be sustained. To write about the renascence of uranium is easy but to then be able to be proved right is difficult. Its easy to get onto the band wagon and I am sure many will climb onto the band wagon but I would prefer to be right before I do so. I am therefore going to wait and be patient. There is no hurry to loose money.

    In the last month there has been a significant change in the holding of Paladin shares with UBS having increased its share holding in Paladin from 5% to 6%. Please visit the web site and have a look at the news for further details. http://www.paladinenergy.com.au/ Paladin remains the last independent major producer after the demise of Uranium one.

    Vanadium continues to be something I think has a future in context to the vanadium redox batteries and I continue to keep a watch on their progress. One of the companies that thought and still do think has a future is energizer resources with their giant vanadium and graphite deposit in Madagascar. http://vimeo.com/20380955 is a company that is developing Vanadium redox technology in the USA and its worth watching the video as well as visiting their website.

    Currently installed vanadium batteries include:
    • A 1.5 MW UPS system in a semiconductor fabrication plant in Japan.
    • A 275 kW output balancer in use on a wind power project in the Tomari Wind Hills of Hokkaido.
    • A 200 kW, 800 kW·h (2.9 GJ) output leveler in use at the Huxley Hill Wind Farm on King Island, Tasmania.
    • A 250 kW, 2 MW·h (7.2 GJ) load leveler in use at Castle Valley, Utah.
    • Two 5-kW units installed at Safaricom GSM site in Katangi and Njabini, Winafrique Technologies, Kenya.[12]
    • Two 5-kW units installed in St. Petersburg, Florida, under the auspices of USF's Power Center for Utility Explorations.
    • A 100 kWh unit supplied with 18 kW stacks manufactured by Cellstrom (Austria) has been installed in Vierakker (Gelderland, The Netherlands) as part of an integrated energy concept called 'FotonenBoer'/'PhotonFarmer' (InnovationNetwork/Foundation Courage)
    A 400 kW, 500 kWh output balancer in use on a solar power project in the Bilacenge Village in Sumba Island, Indonesia.

    As can be noted from above there is progress with vanadium technology.

    IN hind sight to the Tesla and car charging issue vanadium redox batteries may become a part of that solution with power being generated by a combination of wind and solar independently off the grid. A new set of power feeds can be a new business in the world replacing the current petrol stations with power stations in the future. With the redox batteries we can solve this issue. However we have yet to solve the major issue of turn around time for the batteries of the vehicles. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/metals-vanadium-batteries-idUSL2N0E42JQ20130524

    On the other side we have a graphite deposit with the same company and graphene appears to be the way of the future. http://articles.economictimes.india...70609_1_graphene-speaker-charge-and-discharge

    The fact that research shows we are capable in the near future of commercially being able to take one light particle and emit multiple electrons as opposed to the current one which is a one to one is a breakthrough that many may have not even though of yet. Consider this to be the wave of the future. Read the above article to the end we may be seeing the future right there. For those that have not been introduced to Graphene and what are its properties here is a good site and don’t forget to watch the video. http://www.inmesol.com/blog/graphene-material-that-will-change-our-world There are quite a few interesting videos after the first one for those that are interested.

    Energiser resources has a massive deposit in a low labor cost area of the world. Its not exactly the most stable country but its not the worst either. The company has two potential future demand materials on hand and its not easy for the company to mine the products or raise capital in short the potential to turn it into a mine is possibly a minimum ten years possibly longer. If it survives this period Energizer may well play an important part in the future of the world considering that the type of graphite it has is especially more usable than the smaller flakes in other deposits.

    Gold continues to create doubt on its bullish run and it is possible for further down side if we see a break below 1325. While there are many investors who will disagree with my analysis, I have seen this pattern before just a few months ago and the nature of the trend says that gold is finding it difficult to pass the resistance points mentioned previously. My take is that right now I would stay away from gold as it is not providing a clear direction. IF you are considering taking a jab at it get in as close to 1330 or thereabouts with tight stop losses to reduce damage to your portfolio. The same goes for the other metals.

    From now on we must sit tight and wait for uranium stocks to perhaps drop down for the summer lows. If this does not occur we have a clear indication to invest in for the longer term. During the summer period we usually have at least one low drop but if this does not occur it tells us that there is a great deal more interest in the stocks than there was last year and that there is a very good chance of them climbing up and above resistance points by the end of the year if for no better reason than simply speculation on a shortage that I really do not see happening immediately short of 50 power stations coming on line in Japan. http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/...-nuclearreactors-nikkei-idINDEE9490ER20130510

    A few coffee’s ago I mentioned that the drop in the yen against major currencies would have some repercussions, this article just appeared so I do think I am on the right track. I missed but it gives details of what I had written about and why it puts pressure on Japan to restart the powers stations. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100706222 Recent reports from the nuclear experts is that the affect of the fukushima incident is not as it has been portrayed. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Fear_and_stress_outweigh_Fukushima_radiation_risk_3105131.html

    The world at large lives on fear and to some degree enjoys the effect of it. First we wind ourselves on the ‘What if’ syndrome. We then wait for something to happen and then wind ourselves some more. Our whole lives is lived with this syndrome and in effect the majority of us live with negativity right through our lives and fear.

    Fear is the key to every thing we do or do not do. We have inherited our fears from our ancestors, from stories passed down through our lineage. We have the fear of trying something new, and to attempt to continue to travel the well-worn road.

    Once in a while the road ends and we are forced to cut our own path. Many will simply sit at the end of that well worn path, afraid to move forward, but a few will consider it futile to simply sit and either through inspiration or perhaps desperation will attempt to cut their own path through the unknown.

    As with everything new there will be risk and the possibility of failure. However if we wait to consider failure where is the space for success. We are already considering failure and once more negativity rears its ugly head. Why do we always consider the negative rather than the positive? It is perhaps not our fault as it is simply ingrained in our mind or even our genes to consider the possibility first as a defense mechanism but sometimes we do not have the option for negativity for our very survival depends on us being positive, where we factor in hope which we have discussed in the past.

    Imagine if you will a scenario of you standing on a cliff with the deep blue sea at the bottom and you are acutely aware that you cannot swim, yet behind you is an inferno which has quickly become a fire storm approaching you. One has but one choice; to take the only remote possibility and HOPE for the best.

    In a similar manner if we are not able to take a risk we must surely embrace failure. Life unfortunately is never so simple or abstract or perhaps we make it so and if that is the case then perhaps we can make it abstract. Perhaps we must negate all the various detail that makes the picture so complicated that it actually takes over and finally makes the original completely disappear. Remove all this detail and what we see is perhaps unbelievable simply in the same way that a magicians trick looses its ..Magic when we know its trick. In our case this simplicity in itself works as its own illusion not allowing the viewer to believe what they are seeing and refusing to allow them to accept what they are seeing as reality. Perhaps the story of uranium and nuclear power falls into this category. Perhaps I have left you more confused than when we started, but then what else did you expect from this author, but to leave you questioning your very own sanity, ah! But perhaps that in itself is an illusion…..


    Have a great weekend.

    SAGI :cool1::beerglass:
     
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  33. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    More from the guys at Casey

    “Pandora’s Promise”: Changing Environmentalist Minds on Nuclear Energy?



    By Marin Katusa

    In the past, I've been asked to comment on many energy-related documentaries, such as Gasland. Ironically, we were one of the first to debunk Josh Fox's Gasland's fictional depiction of the US shale sector.

    But I'm actually quite excited about the effect a new documentary, Pandora's Promise, will have on the masses regarding nuclear energy. My prediction is that it will not have as much influence as I would like it to have, but it will be a positive step. This must-see documentary confirms our thesis on the coming supercycle in uranium. While it may take longer than what we want, fortunes will be made as all of the elements are coming together for us to profit from one of the greatest supercycles in the history of finance.

    The film, structured around environmentalists who've changed their minds on nuclear power, will open next month. In the meantime, its producers recently released this trailer.

    Robert Stone, whose critical film on nuclear weapons testing in the Bikini Islands was nominated for an Oscar, has directed a broad range of documentaries, including episodes of American Experience on PBS. On the Pandora's Paradise website he is quoted as saying, in part:

    "It's no easy thing for me to have come to the conclusion that the rapid deployment of nuclear power is now the greatest hope we have for saving us from an environmental catastrophe. Yet this growing realization has led me to question many of the founding tenets of traditional environmentalism, from the belief that we can dramatically reduce our energy demand through energy efficiency to the belief that solar and wind power will one day power the planet" .... "If there was a single 'ah-ha' moment it was when I was granted entry into a room in France (the size of a basketball court) where all the waste from powering 80 percent of the country for 30 years is stored: four cylindrical tubes 10 meters long and 1 meter wide are all that's left from powering the city of Paris for 30 years with clean nuclear energy! I thought, 'My God, what on Earth were we thinking?'"

    Now that we all agree that nuclear energy will get its day in the spotlight, make sure you are positioned and that you have positioned your family to profit from the coming uranium supercycle.

    I was interviewed at the most recent Cambridge House resource conference; the conversation focused on misconceptions in the liquefied natural gas market and why uranium is poised to take off. Watch it here.

    Additional Links and Reads
    Russian-Czech Agreement on Temelin Power Plant Will Irk US (Press TV)

    Every week we like to include an article which highlights another nuclear-power deal made between Russia and another country. This time it's the Czechs awarding the Russians with a number of memorandums and agreements. What's more interesting is that AREVA was in the mix, but was eliminated from the tender process due to some "serious mistakes." The Russians definitely had the inside track as they promised Czech companies will receive orders of up to 6 billion euros.

    Japan, India Seek Prompt Nuclear Accord (Asia One)

    It is no secret that Russia has been actively trying to secure a relationship with India in the nuclear sector, but it looks like another country is now in the mix. If Japan concludes this treaty, it is possible for Japan to export nuclear power plants to India. India is expected to be a massive nuclear power market – in fact, one of the biggest after China. The Russians have already built two units for the Kudankulam project in India, but have had some hiccups in some of the parts' designs. If more errors occur, this could lead to Japan coming in and taking away that business.

    Kuwait to Burn 900,000 Barrels of Oil per Day for Electricity and Water by 2030 (Saudi Gazette)

    It is hard to believe how much oil is burned for electricity, especially in Middle Eastern countries. Kuwait would definitely suffer economically if 20% of its main export is to be used instead to generate electricity locally. Kuwait is currently one of the richest Arab countries, and will have to turn to other fuel sources to maintain its power. We expect a significant shift to nuclear power in the near future.
     
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  34. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    THE POSSIBILITY OF FUEL CELLS. URANIUM BLUES.




    Good morning! The temperatures are up but I have managed to break my pinky. I have no idea how but it is broken and irritating me. Usually I never use my pinky, which forces me to ask myself as to why it should irritate me when I had no use for it in the last …..few decades? Despite this small irritation I find my self cordially tapping away at the key board in order to attempt to bore you sufficiently enough to allow you to have a mid morning snooz which is the reason why I ask you to pour me a coffee. Thank you.

    Two weeks ago I was invited to dinner where I met a gentleman who is working for one the companies that researches fuel cells and believes that this will be the way forward. His research is directed at hydrogen fuel cells and their application in turbine technology, the type used in air craft. My talk with him was brief but enough to entice me to consider the future of hydrogen fuel cells and their lack of stability. The application of such technology in air craft is mind boggling and yet here I was speaking to a gentleman who was directly involved in its research and development. I was amazed by the fact that they would think it possible to commercialize such a prospect. All the major air craft companies are researching this prospect and while it is a distance away we must consider the trend which is fuel cell technology for air craft and something to keep in mind. There are two companies that we follow in fuel cell technology neither of which is doing too well at present. One is BLDP which recently had some hype which quickly eroded, while the other is FCEL. Both companies are working hard in the business and attempting to introduce the fuel cell solution to several problems including vehicles especially those in public transportation. With air transportation taking such progress we may see one or both companies involved in the future.

    This Friday we will have the non farm payroll report which usually beings some action into the markets. I posted a chart of the S&P some time ago and suggested that there was indecision as to which direction the S&P was going to go since then we had several more pins appear and please refer to the black chart underneath. The yellow box shows four pins nesting one inside the other. Let me explain because this can help us in picking stocks too through price action. The first candle shows a long wick downwards indicating that sellers had a tough time moving the price down. The second sits within this range showing even less movement followed by a third that nests within this one. Each of this shows less movement than the previous and are simply indicators of what might happen. The fourth is a green pin (the second of the two) which shows a break out but I call it a false break out and this pattern is familiar because if it is immediately followed by a down side pin as in this one we can short the stock or the markets. This downtrend can find support at 1575 where we would be looking for either a pin bar reversal followed by a solid candle confirming the reversal or we could look for the reflection of the candles in the square. If this support is broken we would then continue to sell into the S&P going with the trend which is now downwards. A break below may find support at 1540. We will continue to follow this and would consider that the summer lows are beginning to take place. We should find bottoms by the end of June or Mid July. So will get an indication that the downward trend has begun when we have a crossover on the MACD on the weekly chart. If you have a look at the daily chart we see a number of confusing cross overs which do not give an indication.

    While we have considered gold and silver we have not looked at the general commodities which are still in an up trend with the likes of coffee, cotton, cocoa etc all gaining in price. In order to make any kind of bullish re-entry into gold I will wait for it to jump past 1422. A break above this and closing above followed by an opening above would be helpful. Unitl then I am staying away from gold having been stung on my bullish expedition on gold. With gold we also do not have a weekly cross over to show that a reasonably long term bullish trend has begun and therefore it is prudent to stay away for the time being. There si the possibility of three entry points into the gold action. 1. Wait for a weekly cross over of the MACD. 2. Wait for EMA cross over ( I use the 8 and 21 days cross over on the weekly as an experiment) 3. A price action cross over is also possible when we have an inverted bearish reversal pin bar occurring at support. With support at 1330 not breached we must wait.


    Uranium continues to sting everyone as there is relatively little news to make a serious impact on the spot price. There were very few deals made on the spot market and May remained quiet. This time of the year is usually quite and the beginning of the year has been likewise. I continue to monitor our short list of stocks and continue to watch the spot markets as well as any news on the restart of Japan’s power plants. China continues to state that its 29 stations under construction will be ready by 2020. Great! That just makes me a little bit older. The only news of interest was the merger between Rockgate and Mega Uranium. As stock prices continue to drop and capital becomes scarce there is a tendency for buyouts and mergers to occur for survival. We will see more of these in the near future. This is the time when the weak will be swallowed up and the market will come out stronger in the future.

    This week I have been late in posting as several events occurred simultaneously. A good friend who had been waiting for a heart got one last Friday. This was an occasion for joy as well as sadness as for one to survive another had to pass away. A twenty year old man passed away and my dear friend got a chance for life. A true gem he had been waiting for nearly four years for one. At the same time I managed to break my pinky which was not a momentous occasion, rather a painful one which left me grumbling and letting off unthinkable profanities which had the Mrs clucking away in alarm. A clip to the ears (no not her’s… mine) put an end to that business. The mystery is how did the fracture occur as I have no clue. The doctors feel that I must have hit it hard enough or it got caught in a door which I have no recollection off so the mystery is still on. These events have slowed down my usual speed in typing the material for this week.

    I hope I will be feeling a lot better next week and adapt to the lack of one pinky and get back up to speed.

    I will be away for the majority of the summer as a visit back to Kenya is required. I would be lying to you if I said I did not miss the local amber nectar and while it is a very good reason to go back there are more pressing matters that must be attended to urgently. I hate going back as I always have a latent fear of attacks. However go I must. I hope that uranium will begin to move up as the later part of the year approaches but for now we are simply sitting tight. I still think that Cameco is the only one we need to watch for the time being as a signal from this stock will tell us if uranium is back in favor or not. For the moment no stock purchasing is recommended.

    Have a good weekend.

    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2013
  35. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Apologies I forgot to post the S&P 500 chart but here it is.

    SAGI
     

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  36. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Gold has recently tried to move up wards. It is very possible for it move downwards from here and break past 1330.00. Please be careful if this occurs as if it breaks past 1330 we can see a move to 1270 following. Note the inside engulfing candlesticks i.e. candle sticks to the left are bigger than those to the right in the square and each subsequent one is engulfed. This is a good indicator of a false attempt at breaking out.

    SAGI
     

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  37. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  38. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  39. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    CNN Films Announces Acquisition of ‘Pandora’s Promise’ for Fall 2013 Broadcast
    Director Robert Stone’s film – to bow theatrically nationwide on June 12 – challenges environmentalists’ assumptions on nuclear power
    CNN Films has acquired the domestic television rights for PANDORA’S PROMISE, a provocative 2013 Sundance Film Festival selection that explores the potential of nuclear power to combat the worldwide crisis of climate change. The film will premiere on CNN/U.S. in November 2013, following its U.S. theatrical premiere on June 12, it was announced today.
    The atomic bomb and accidents at Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima bring to mind apocalyptic disasters, but the science and experience since suggest that long-held fears about nuclear power may be wrong. Directed by Academy Award®-nominated Robert Stone, PANDORA’S PROMISE examines how irrational fears of “nukes” may have extended the era of fossil fuels, perilously accelerating the pace of climate change as the global demand for energy, particularly in the developing world, soars to unprecedented levels. Stone takes his camera inside the exclusion zone around Fukushima, and even ventures inside the notorious Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
    Stone tells the intensely personal stories of environmentalists and energy experts who have undergone profound conversions from being passionately against, to strongly favoring nuclear energy – putting their careers and reputations on the line in the process. Through the voices of Stewart Brand, Gwyneth Cravens, Mark Lynas, Richard Rhodes, and Michael Shellenberger, Stone exposes this rift within the environmental movement as they describe their individual journeys of defection. Also included are interviews with two pioneering engineers of next generation nuclear reactors.
    “PANDORA’S PROMISE should inspire broad discussion on the fundamental issues of economic and social disparities and environmental risks,” said Amy Entelis, senior vice president for talent and content development for CNN Worldwide. “This is precisely the type of challenging debate we had hoped for when we conceived the mission for CNN Films,” Entelis said.
    “I made this film in order to illuminate what I see as the ‘elephant in the room’ when it comes to the ongoing debate about how to tackle climate change,” Stone said. “We have a moral imperative to lift billions of people out of poverty, while at the same time dramatically reducing CO2 emissions. How to do that is the central issue of our time and that led me to take a second look at nuclear energy,” Stone said.
    “Robert approaches this issue with a journalist’s sensibilities,” said Vinnie Malhotra, senior vice president of development and acquisitions for CNN Worldwide. “He reports the history and how we got here, spotlights the challenges, and systematically debunks the myths and misinformation that have so clouded this essential debate – before this important film,” Malhotra said.
    Undaunted and independent, PANDORA’S PROMISE is a groundbreaking work that is forever changing the conversation about the myths and science behind the deeply emotional and polarizing issue of nuclear power.
    The deal was negotiated by Dan Cogan of Impact Partners and Andrew Herwitz, president of the Film Sales Company on behalf of the filmmakers.
    IMAGES
    Mark Lynas in a scene from PANDORA’S PROMISE. Image credit: Courtesy of Howard Shack for CNN. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/04/30/pandoraspromise1.jpg
    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in a scene from PANDORA’S PROMISE. Image credit: Courtesy of Robert Stone for CNN http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/04/30/pandoraspromise3.jpg
    About CNN Films
    CNN Films brings documentaries beyond the small screen by developing strategic partnerships to leverage distribution opportunities at film festivals and in theaters. Amy Entelis, senior vice president of talent and content development for CNN Worldwide, and Vinnie Malhotra, senior vice president of development and acquisitions for CNN Worldwide, oversee the acquisition strategy of documentaries for CNN Films. Malhotra manages the day-to-day operation of CNN Films, and works directly with filmmakers to develop original projects.
    CNN Worldwide is a portfolio of two dozen news and information services across cable, satellite, radio, wireless devices and the Internet in more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. Domestically, CNN reaches more individuals on television, the web and mobile devices than any other cable TV news organization in the United States; internationally, CNN is the most widely distributed news channel reaching more than 271 million households abroad; and CNN Digital is a top network for online news, mobile news and social media. Additionally, CNN Newsource is the world’s most extensively utilized news service partnering with hundreds of local and international news organizations around the world. CNN is division of Turner Broadcasting System, Inc., a Time Warner Company.
     
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  40. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS IN EXPLORERS A SIGN OF STRENGTH.






    Good Morning! This week I posted a chart of gold with what one writer calls his proprietary pattern known as the fakey. Now I have seen this pattern occur before and it does predictably provide direction for the next few days to even weeks. Gold has been resisting moving up and there has not been a bounce. The logic would imply that we will move down. The question is; Will it test 1330 and break past this important resistance point. If this were to occur we could see a drop further down and confirm at least a short term down trend for the summer leading to testing perhaps even 1150. Generally I do not like to predict. I am an ignorant writer with practically no skills and leave the prediction business to the gurus of the trade as well as to those that are more familiar with gold and silver patterns. What matters to me most is to find the prevailing direction and simple analysis of the price action shows us that there is a great gap of buyers to sellers for the time being and the sellers are prevailing. Some interest occurred in the last trading day of the week allowing gold to jump back up to around 1390.00. If it does not drop in the coming week then the signal is negated.

    Thank you for the coffee. The weather outside is unpredictable and milky white clouds abound. This year spring has been late and therefore it is possible that summer will be short leading us to cold weather coming in quickly later in the year. Weather patterns around the world are changing and we can see this change with lower cold fronts coming into Europe as well as unpredictable weather patterns in Eastern Europe, Siberia, as well as the United States. The tornadoes have been causing havoc there and as one reporter said the size and ferocity of the tornados appear to be increasing year on year. These appear to be the effect of climate change. Climate change makes rainfall unpredictable and food production can either increase or decrease dramatically. We can expect frosts to hit the coffee in Brazil or cold fronts destroying wheat crops. We could see unusual heat fronts destroying fruit production. All these will affect prices and at the same time perhaps increase volatility. This see-saw effect will be a dream for speculators who hate steadiness. However with weather change governments will be forced to consider a more reliable and less volatile type of energy producer. While wind is a good medium for energy, more moving parts mean more things going wrong and greater maintenance. Sand kills solar though the sun is more constant in the desert. Sand affects the efficiency of the solar panels. We know that in the long run the costs begin to rise while efficiency drops. We know that there are issues of supply power upon demand, we know that the issue of costs is keeping the vanadium redox battery form taking off and finally all this makes the argument for a more reliable source such as nuclear a better alternative for the longer run. In the end they will have to factor in size to cost and when they finally get it right the cost will be justified against the production.

    We know that various exploration companies are reducing their exploration and many have merged or been taken over. These larger companies in turn are simply sitting on the deposits with very little progress to move forward. They do go through the motions but in reality there is very little progress. A case in point is Paladin energy. They have a good sized deposit in Labrador known as the Michelin deposit but there will be very little actually being done on the ground. They really have no need to. I suspect the Cameco will also not pursue aggressive expansion of their deposits as Cigar lake was already in the pipe line they continued to develop but they will again not be aggressive about expanding it or their Australian interest. Dennison has yet to show its hand both in context to Cameco and the buy out of several companies in the last year. Dennison itself is a merger of two different companies and is part of the Lundin group which is run by a very shrewd man. However the Lundin group is quite a general group in terms of commodities and Dennison makes up one part of it.

    I like penny stocks as much as any of you readers. As you are aware and for those new readers who have not looked at past articles two of my favorite ones in uranium are Greenland minerals and A-cap resources. Both are Australian exploration companies and both have a high number of shares issued. This has become a needle in my ….ok I leave that to the imagination. Regardless of this if uranium begins to move up I expect these two companies to rise quickly as they have two of the largest viable deposits of uranium in the world next to Cameco. While their cost of production would not be anywhere near the costs of Cameco they are comparable to Rio’s Rossing mine in Namibia and Paladin’s Langer Heinrich. Both of which are low concentration deposits and neither of which would at current prices be making any profit. In fact from a company point of view a strike now would be very welcome at both if it were not for the contracts that both possibly have. Neither Greenland’s 575 million pounds or A-caps 320 million pound deposits are high concentration like Cameco’s but the world will appreciate their uranium in the future. There are two more companies but both are at present sitting on uranium moratorium ground and not able to do anything about it, but they together can be considered as probably the largest deposits of uranium in the world. The two are continental precious minerals(CZQ.TO) and Aura energy (AEE.AX) Continental is Canadian based and has a comparatively small stock issue while Aura is Australian based and has some 40 million shares issued. Both companies sit side by side on the same giant deposit known as the viken deposit and roughly 1.7 billion pounds of Uranium. The problem; the Swedish moratorium on uranium mining and the price of uranium has to be above 80 dollars but I think it needs to be above 100 dollars to make these two projects viable. The other obstruction is the finance needed to make these projects viable will be huge. The Continental and Aura deposit is made up of a number of other metals so in the end they may be able to get the deposit out at a more reasonable cost.

    Most exploration companies are not geared to go into production. In short very few gain significantly long term price rises. Prices rise on rumor and are speculated on for short term profits. If CZQ were to gain a partner of good standing and significance, the price would rise for a short period of time and then depending on the outcome of the rumor the investor will be forced to make a choice. SELL or HOLD. At this point its advocated to not let greed over come common sense. Sometimes its worth taking the profit and sitting on the side lines to see what happens. We cannot make a comparison to Warren Buffet because his investments were never in the mining sector and for good reason.

    The risk of losses in this field are far more frequent. Right now the above are simply potentials and worth keeping an eye on from time to time but with no further investment in them. As my friend is fond of saying; “It’s a hole in the ground”, nothing more nothing less. Until the management can take significant strides to overcome the obstacles the stocks are of no significance. It appears that there are very few significant finds i.e. deposits this year and this reduces the chances of new production coming out in the next few years. There are a number of deposits with less then 50 million pounds, even more with a few million pounds but as the pounds reduce the costs in terms of return rise and make them unviable unless they are shallow deposits. If you have a find of a a million pounds of uranium roughly 500 meters below ground the chances of this deposit ever seeing the light of day are about as high as having two suns appearing tomorrow on the horizon.

    There is one significant change in that the most active company in terms of mergers and acquisitions is Dennison mines and I have painted this picture several times. They have agreements/mergers/acquisitions occurring all over the US and in Canada in the last two years. They have picked up many significant potential deposits, confirmed deposits and have continued to increase their uranium pounds. So far they have their hands on Energy fuels, JNR resources, Fission energy, Strathmore minerals but to name a few all of which had either a great deal of potential or significant finds. I state Strathmore as part of Dennison indirectly as DML owns a lot of shares of EFR which recently bought out Strathmore. Strathmore spun off Fission and owned a great number of shares of it, at one time had an accumulated poundage of about 100 million pounds of uranium, Fission recently had found a significant deposit, and by acquiring Fission, Dennison has its hands on the other half of what is the continuation of the Hathor deposit. While at the same time gets its hand on Strathmore that has a number of shares of Fission as well. http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetailthread.aspx?p=0&m=32032354&l=0&r=0&s=stm&t=list Dennison also has the wheeler river deposit, and a share in the uranium mill that will be handling the uranium from Cigar lake. Through energy fuels, Dennison also has a good part of the coals hill deposit in Virginia through Energy fuels which holds some 16% of shares in this deposit, which is at present going through a fight for rights to mine. Dennison has a deposit in Mongolia as well as Zambia and now Namibia. Dennison has continued to build up its portfolio of deposits for the future.

    If we look at the financial position of Dennison, we would not consider it as strong. It’s cash position is no higher than many of its competitors and yet it has made quite a few acquisitions. Its strength lies in the fact that it has a number of strong partners the most important ones being Cameco and Areva. The more assets Dennison acquires the greater the possibility of it being swallowed up by either Cameco or Areva. The most important deposit currently that Dennison has is the wheeler River project. The grades on this deposit are comparable to the ones found in McArthur and Cigar lake. This deposit makes it attractive to Cameco. The other asset is Fission’s deposit one of which makes up the other half of the rough rider deposit that belonged to Hathor which Cameco tried to get but was rejected for Rio’s offer. Dennison has removed all its US assets and concentrated on its Anthabasca assets but does have interest in Mongolia and Africa.

    If we look at how much Rio paid for Hathor we can imagine how much Dennison could be worth. Dennison is probably the strongest of the explorers in the Anthabasca basin today and probably the most desired by the producers for the assets it holds now. These assets are rich by any standards. At least some of the deposits are over 20 million pounds, one perhaps 50 million pounds. When we think about the rich rock than the deposits that Dennison has acquired provide leverage. They provide the sensible attraction for investors looking to provide maximum leverage for their investment if Uranium begins to move up. The large deposits but with diluted concentration will find it more difficult to make profits initially.

    At present the cheap price of natural gas has been considered as a factor in opposing the construction of new nuclear power stations. What most fail to realize is that natural gas prices are on the increase albeit gradually, but it is happening. Natural gas deposits are being found all the time and perhaps in the next fifty years we will face the same issues as oil. If we were to use gas and convert or construct gas power stations we will rapidly increase the demand and naturally the price of gas will go up.

    The transportation of gas is not as easy as uranium and requires a great deal of infra structure development in order to get the resource to the end user. In many cases gas does replace nuclear but it has its limitations. One factor that people forget is that nuclear verses fossil fuel is a zero sum game. For every one nuclear power plant shut down a dozen coal, gas or alternative source must fire up. At the end of the day the human race must decide if it is willing to take the responsibility for an acceleration in pollution or an acceleration in carefully monitored nuclear power. What it appears to boil down to is no one wishes to take responsibility for a nuclear disaster as it is a grey area with a greater number of catastrophic options while a disaster from either a coal, oil, or hydro has fewer number of catastrophic options. Humans will always shun from responsibility and prefer to pass the buck and in the event of nuclear power no one is willing to take the responsibility easily. http://theenergycollective.com/anso...tions-seeing-bigger-nuclear-vs-fossil-picture


    Some greater need will eventually change this attitude but for the time being this appears to be the status quo.

    This week for the first time a movie is to be released looking at nuclear power in a documentary format. The movie is called Pandoras promise and was released on the 12th of June this year. I have posted an article from CNN on this for those who can access it.

    Cameco got the go ahead for Cigar lake to begin production. In the short term perhaps we will see more uranium on the market than necessary and perhaps their will be an anticipatory drop in the price due to the lack of demand. Perhaps Cameco if they can sustain it, may decide to stock pile rather than sell it. A number of companies may reduce production as the price drops. This is not a small drop, if the same did occur in oil OPEC would give the signal to reduce production. Uranium in the ground will be uranium even 50 years from now. If Japan does not give the signal this year or the next to restart most of the nuclear power stations we may see very little impact of the MTTMW program which ends at the end of this year factoring in Cameco’s cigar lake production coming on line.

    With that I take leave of you and bid you a good weekend.

    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
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