1. Weds am and metals are quiet after recent gains
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  2. Good Weds Morning! We have Gold down 1.6 to 1211, while Silver is down 2 to 1712. Crude is off 72 to 5254. The USD is up 34 to 100.66 after recent losses.
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  3. Week of 1/7/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1173.40-- UP 21.70 Silver $16.52-- UP 54 Oil $53.99 -- UP 27 TICS USD $102.21 -- DOWN 7 Based on near term futures contract--- At JMB Current price AGE 2017 $1243.95 (1), SAE $19.53 (20)
  4. Added Heartland Precious Metals out of OK and LA to the map, Added Texas Precious Metals, and Added Provident Metals.

URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by SAGI, May 1, 2013.



  1. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Hi Sagi I know I owe you a note. Soon.

    Solar in the US. Maybe while we wait for uranium, we can nibble around the edges of the solar market. I hope to be able to contribute more on who is doing the leases for any opportunities there also, in the near future. Til then....



    We've been following the solar power story for some time in these pages...

    Finally, it looks like the industry is beginning to gain traction in residential markets. That's thanks mostly to solar leases finding their way onto the market.

    "But with home systems' upfront costs running $30,000 to $40,000 or more, the solar industry has had to find ways to make them easily available to cash-strapped consumers," MarketWatch reports. "Leases are now the most popular way for homeowners to get solar on their rooftops. GTM Research says 66% of home solar setups are owned by someone other than the homeowner -- which usually means they are leased.

    "Solar leases usually run for 20 years. They include promises of maintenance and monitoring meant to assure homeowners that their systems are working properly and that they don't have to worry about their upkeep."

    Those who lease these solar systems cut their power bills by 15% to 30%, MarketWatch explains. That's not a bad deal at all--and another piece of evidence that shows solar isn't just a pipe dream anymore...
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Visualizing the Changing Landscape in Nuclear Power

    Jeff Desjardins

    on September 16, 2014 at 3:11 pm
    [​IMG]


    Visualizing the Changing Landscape in Nuclear Power


    There’s been talk about a coming potential uranium bull market for awhile now, but here is a different look at the nuclear picture. The above visualization shows every nuclear reactor in the world by country and breaks down their timeline including construction, commercial power generation, and decommissioning. In addition, planned reactors for the future are also shown for each country.

    This data visualization makes it clear where the future of nuclear is. Former nuclear stalwarts such as France, Germany, and the UK all have aging reactors with no new plants planned. Meanwhile, China and Russia do not seem to be afraid of leaning heavily on nuclear energy in the near future. In China alone, 28 or 49 reactors are under construction and there are an additional 35 planned for the future. This is despite nuclear only accounting for 2% of Chinese energy supply in 2012.

    Also of note is Japan, which once relied on 29% of its energy coming from nuclear before the Fukushima accident in 2011. In recent years, Japan has cut nuclear out of their grid, although some reactors are still technically operational. To make up the difference, they have imported more natural gas and oil.

    Original graphic from: Popular Science

    http://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-changing-landscape-nuclear-power/
     
  4. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Searcher this is amazing. Thank you for the post.

    SAGI
     
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  5. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Uranium: Not if but when
    Speakers at a uranium seminar in London were all in agreement that uranium prices will rise, but only in the medium to long term.





    Author: Lawrence Williams
    Posted: Friday , 12 Sep 2014
    LONDON (MINEWEB) -

    Presenters at a uranium seminar organised this week by the London branch of Women in Mining, and sponsored by Fission Uranium, from a broad spectrum of the industry were all in agreement that uranium prices would likely rise substantially, but perhaps not yet - only in the medium to long term. And medium to long is just another way of saying ‘jam tomorrow’, although in this case ‘tomorrow’ will undoubtedly come but price rises may not be significant until perhaps the end of the decade.

    The opening keynote was given by Ian Hiscock of commodities research group CRU who reckoned that short term price weakness would remain but that demand for uranium would likely double in the next 20 years with growth in usage for nuclear power generation flat to downwards in the West, due to the probably overdone post Fukushima fallout, but very substantial growth occurring in the East, and in particular in China which has a huge nuclear power development programme in place. Nuclear power arguably offers the only real major scale non polluting, zero carbon emission technology out there and China sees this as a means for reducing its enormous air pollution problems which beset its major cities from its massive coal-fired power generation sector.

    The problem for uranium is that because of its association with atomic weaponry many people live in fear of it – a fear exemplified by the three main nuclear power disasters – Three Mile Island in North America in 1979, Chernobyl in the Ukraine in 1986 and most recently Fukushima in Japan in 2011. All had a very significant effect on nuclear power programmes and Fukushima perhaps most of all in this respect prompting huge knee-jerk reactions against nuclear power in particular in Europe. It may take the nuclear power industry in the West many years to recover – if ever.

    But, as Hiscock pointed out, the mining of uranium and its use in power generation is, in reality, one of the safest means of producing energy. Far more people will die worldwide as a result of air pollution from fossil fuelled power plants than will have had their lives shortened by the very rare nuclear power plant disasters – and nuclear technology and safety is evolving as lessons are learned from those which have occurred. But nonetheless uranium prices have just about halved since the Fukushima disaster making many uranium mines uneconomic – indeed most of the industry so were it not for the fact that most uranium is sold under long term contracts many of which are at double the current spot price – or even more.

    Hiscock was followed by the impressive Fletcher Newton of New World Consulting who enlightened the audience further on the long term contract position. Nuclear power utilities need to secure their supply base to a far greater extent than fossil fuel power utilities do given the relatively small number of uranium miners and thus need to set contract prices at a level which will guarantee future supplies. Even so, long term contract prices do move with the spot price and those miners who entered into long term supply contracts when the uranium price was high will still be able to produce profitably even though they couldn’t survive on current spot price levels which will currently only account for a fraction of their sales.

    But, low spot prices bring long term contract prices down and also militate against new uranium mining developments and expansions and have already seen some casualties in mine closures. Meanwhile the post Fukushima demand drop-off in Europe has somewhat countered the end of the Russian Megatons to Megawatts programme whereby uranium had been supplied to western markets via the decommissioning of much of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

    Utilities have also been building up inventories which are at the highest levels in 20 years thus securing supplies purchased at the lower prices, while, Newton averred, prices WILL rise substantially, the high inventory levels will put this timing back.

    Thus in terms of uranium miners, the low grade operations, which provide the bulk of the world’s supply at present are rapidly becoming hugely uneconomic as long term contracts run out and need to be renegotiated at lower levels and in terms of new projects grade is going to be key. Indeed Newton likened high-grade uranium projects as like gold – although perhaps with the gold mining sector facing its own price problems at the moment this might not have been the best analogy!

    The final speaker was David Sadowski of Canadian broker Raymond James who covered the investment angle. Why invest now? For the long term. Prices are depressed and can’t fall much lower as overall global demand is increasing as Eastern nuclear power expansions come on line and, probably, Japan reinstates at least a part of its nuclear power generation industry. Sadowski sees the current uranium surplus turning to deficit, but probably not until 2020 so he sees the short to medium term ‘iffy’ but longer term price performance very strong.

    Key factors for investment in uranium plays are grades, depth, metallurgy, access, additional exploration potential, orebody geometry/mineability, land tenure/ royalties, permitting and geopolitical factors. And it terms of the companies themselves investors should look out for capital access, management track record, management invested in the company, capital structure, forward sales (hedging), shareholder base, trading liquidity and newsflow. Most of these factors apply to any resource company of course. If one does one’s due diligence there are still good stocks to be picked up - even in a hugely depressed sector like uranium.
     
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  6. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  7. fat panther

    fat panther Silver Member Silver Miner

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  8. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Great Article FP. Thank you!

    SAGI
     
  9. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  10. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    UPDATE 2-Greenland PM's leave creates uncertainty for fledgling mining industry
    Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:32pm EDT
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    Greenland PM to take leave amid financial scandal - paper
    ANALYSIS & OPINION

    (Adds PM avoids no confidence vote, parliament accepts request, analysts, background on mining)

    By Teis Jensen and Sabina Zawadzki

    (Reuters) - Greenland's prime minister narrowly avoided a vote of no confidence on Tuesday but will temporarily leave office while auditors investigate whether she misused state funds, casting uncertainty over the country's fledgling minerals sector.

    The turmoil is likely to paralyse the government at a critical juncture as international companies such as London Mining Plc and Greenland Minerals and Energy are considering opening iron ore and rare earth mines.

    An audit committee told parliament last Friday that Aleqa Hammond, head of the social democratic party, Siumut, and prime minister since April 2013, spent 106,000 Danish crowns ($18,077) of state money on private flights and hotels for family members.

    She replied to the committee then that her spending had been in line with previous practice that had only recently been changed and that she had paid back the money.

    On Tuesday, she applied to parliament for temporary leave, naming fellow party member and environment minister, Kim Kielsen, as her preferred acting premier.

    One opposition party demanded a vote of no confidence, rather than granting her leave, but the 31-member assembly narrowly rejected that demand and approved her request by 15 votes to 14, Hans Jakob Helms, a political adviser to Hammond's party told Reuters.

    Greenland, an island of more than 2.1 million square km (830,000 square miles) is a part of the Danish kingdom but was granted self-rule in 2009, gaining control over financial and business issues including taxation and its resources.

    Denmark contributes 3.5 billion Danish crowns ($594 million) to its coffers a year so the development of its resources, which also include rare earth minerals and potentially billions of barrels of oil, is a step towards further independence.

    "CATASTROPHE"

    Observers were split as to whether Tuesday's moves would prompt a new election, but said the temporary departure of Hammond, who was seen as a breath of fresh air in political circles, would be a blow for the country of 57,000 people.

    "This is a catastrophe for Greenlandic politics; everything will come to a halt and no important decisions will be made during this time," said Poul Krarup, editor at Greenland's Sermitsiaq AG newspaper.

    He said he doubted Hammond would return as prime minister, but believed the governing coalition would try to hang on by replacing her with a party colleague to avoid a general election, which the opposition would win, according to polls.

    But Damien Degeorges, a Reykjavik-based consultant who specialises in Greenlandic affairs, said he would not be surprised should an election take place as pressure on Hammond had been building for some time.

    "In a difficult economic period for the country and with a heavy international agenda ahead, Greenland cannot allow itself to face an even temporary departure of its premier. Either the current premier continues her work or a new election will have to take place," he said.

    Should the opposition win the election, it is likely that the leader of the Inuit Ataqatigiit party, Sara Olsvig, would become prime minister. It was this party that had called for a vote of no confidence in Hammond.

    Greenland ended a decades-long prohibition on mining for radioactive materials such as uranium last year in a tight vote in parliament, further opening up the country to investors from Australia to China who are eager to tap its mineral resources.

    Uranium is often found together with rare earth minerals -- used in smart phones and batteries -- and Greenland's government has argued that the lifting of the ban, which still limits uranium production, was meant to encourage rare earths development only.

    Olsvig and her party are amongst the group that opposed the change in law and aims to reverse it.

    "The uranium debate could again be on the agenda with a government led by Inuit Ataqatigiit, creating then more instability for investors," Degeorges said.

    Australia's GME and Tanbreez Mining, a unit of Rimbal Pty Ltd, are involved in rare earth projects. London Mining has one of the most advanced plans for a mine but that is for iron ore and does not concern uranium.

    Its shares fell 59 percent to a record low on Monday after it warned it did not have enough cash to operate its only existing mine in Sierra Leone. On Tuesday they extended the losses by another 12 percent.

    Financial analysts have said before as long as London Mining's non-Greenlandic businesses sap its finances, development of its $2.35 billion, 15 million tonne-a-year project would not see the light of day.

    (1 US dollar = 5.8953 Danish crown) (Additional reporting by Erik Matzen, Annabella Nielsen and Ole Mikkelsen, Editing by Dominic Evans)
     
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  11. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Billionaire George Soros Bought $45 Million of Cameco Corporation; Should You Buy, Too?
    By Robert Baillieul - October 3, 2014 | See also: CCJCCO




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    It’s one of my favourite ways to invest in the Canadian resource sector — and apparently legendary investor George Soros agrees with me.

    The company is Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO)(NYSE: CCJ), the world’s largest uranium producer. Its key asset, McArthur River, is one of the largest and highest-grade mines in the world. It alone accounts for more than 10% of the industry’s output.

    Cameco is an unusual bet. As anyone who has been following the industry can tell you, the past six years have been hard on uranium miners.

    Uranium prices collapsed between 2007 and 2010, where spot rates fell as low as US$40/lb. Then Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster hit in early 2011. Prices took a second leg down as the country scrapped its atomic energy program. Just take a look at the chart below.

    As you can see, uranium has been the world’s most despised commodity ever since. Only a few months ago, prices hit a nine-year low. But that’s about to change.



    Source: IndexMundi.com

    Today, uranium trades at US$36/lb. However, the average cost to produce one pound of uranium is more than twice that — about US$75/lb. Miners are hemorrhaging money.

    That can’t last. Large players will curb operations. Small miners will go bust. Eventually, prices will rise to meet the cost of production.

    And despite critics, uranium demand is still growing. Nuclear power currently produces nearly a fifth of U.S. electricity. Developing countries like China and India need atomic energy to power their economic growth.

    As supplies tighten and demand grows, common sense says that uranium prices will go up. Of course, we don’t know exactly when that will happen. But because the situation cannot get much worse, the downside risk here is low.

    Apparently, Soros is also bullish on uranium miners. According to recent SEC filings, the billionaire investor disclosed that he owned 2.3 million Cameco shares. As of June, that represented an investment stake of US$44.7 million.

    As the largest producer in the world, Cameco is like the Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. of the uranium industry. The company has the raw scale needed to survive the sector’s current doldrums. And because of the leverage inherent in its business model, Cameco’s profits could rise much faster than the underlying commodity.

    What’s interesting is that Soros paid between $22 and $27 per share for his recent acquisitions, up to 36% above Thursday’s closing price. If Soros is buying at even higher prices, then Cameco has a lot of upside from here.
     
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  12. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  13. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    UPDATE:

    Uranium stocks took a beating once more and Cameco is approaching the 14.50 mark I was looking for to get in. I mentioned this several months ago and currently the price is 16.05. This is the only producer worth buying now.

    SAGI
     
  14. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    October 08, 2014 16:11 ET

    First Uranium Concentrate Produced from Ore Mined at Cigar Lake
    SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN--(Marketwired - Oct. 8, 2014) -
    ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)
    Cameco (TSX:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ) announced today that the McClean Lake mill has started producing uranium concentrate from ore mined at the Cigar Lake operation in northern Saskatchewan.
    The McClean Lake mill, operated by AREVA Resources Canada Inc., recently completed modifications required to safely process the high-grade ore from the Cigar Lake mine. Cigar Lake ore is transported by truck to the McClean Lake mill located 70 kilometres northeast of the minesite for processing.
    Mining at Cigar Lake began in March 2014. To date, Cameco has delivered about 1,400 tonnes of ore to McClean Lake. Mining was suspended in July 2014 to allow the orebody to freeze more thoroughly. Mining resumed in the first week of September and ore deliveries to the mill are ongoing. The mill is expected to produce up to 1 million pounds of uranium concentrate from Cigar Lake ore in 2014 and ramp up to its full production rate of 18 million pounds by 2018 (Cameco's share 9 million pounds).
    "Cigar Lake is among the world's richest and most technically challenging orebodies and I congratulate all of the people who helped to bring it into production," said Cameco president and CEO Tim Gitzel. "It provides Cameco with a large-scale, low-cost production centre and positions us to take full advantage of the long-term growth we see coming in our industry."
    As at December 31, 2013, the total capital cost of the Cigar Lake project was estimated at $2.6 billion. Up to 1,000 people worked at the site during construction and the mine will employ more than 600 highly-skilled workers during operation. The majority of the workers are residents of Saskatchewan's north.
    The Cigar Lake mine is owned by Cameco (50.025%), AREVA Resources Canada Inc. (AREVA) (37.1%), Idemitsu Canada Resources Ltd. (7.875%) and TEPCO Resources Inc. (5.0%) and is operated by Cameco. The McClean Lake mill is owned by AREVA Resources Canada Inc. (70%), Denison Mines Inc. (22.5%) and OURD Canada Co. Ltd. (7.5%), and is operated by AREVA.
     
  15. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  16. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    UPDATE: CCJ - Cameco now at 15.59, as it continues to drop. I am now getting a little confident that we may see the 14.50 mark which was a price that Cameco had dropped down to previously being attained.

    SAGI
     
  17. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    EXPERIENCES OF A SALES MAN & THE UNIVERSE WITHIN.



    Years ago I was a salesman for the Dixsons stores group in the UK. I learnt from experience that a sale in a shop is already half done because a client walking in has already decided that he wishes to purchase something or is at least interested in finding out more information or comparing prices. For salesman one required to gain the skill of discerning whether the individual walking in was passing time, looking for a particular item or simply some information. Since time was money for the salesman, he had to spend minimum time with the curious time passer, provide quick information to the digger and go for the jugular with the determined purchaser and sell him a product that he was satisfied with, but further skill was required to decide if the purchaser was willing to spend more than what he was stating and if possible get him to purchase something more expensive.

    There were some very skilled sale people in the store I worked for which was one of the largest in London at the time. These sales people had honed their skill to the sharpness of a fine Katana blade. They would decide who was a buyer simply by reading their body language. Since I did not have this skill nor was I looking to simply hook an individual, I took a slightly different modus operand to make my mark. I decided that I wanted my client to remember me and get repeats and at the same time pass the word around to their friends and family that there was an honest and straightforward sales person they could approach and get the right information as well as the right product. It took a year but curiously customers would walk in and ask for me by name. This lead to some huge sales numbers and a call from the manager to see me, and congratulate me on my attitude. The store began to increase sales over a longer period and new sales people were often sent to me for mentoring for the first few weeks. The problem was the store was usually used as a stop gap by students and new job seekers who within a few months to a year moved on. Eventually I moved on too. However the skills I learnt in the retail sector stayed with me and I still continue to apply them. The sales skills in the retail sector are different form those required in the manufacturing or service sector, despite products being products; because in these sectors one has to make cold calls and by their very nature one in every twenty may show interest and perhaps one in every forty or fifty will be a clincher. The difference is that you get one huge sale and often a repeat customer, therefore you develop a slow but steady client list. Changing jobs in the same sector may lead to clients going with you as you are the individual they trust and this allows one some leverage to improve their salary or their benefits. Some companies ask you to sign an agreement that does not allow you to do this.

    The stock/commodities/fx are no different and there is always a salesman at the other end of the line. He may wear a two thousand dollar suit and drive a Ferrari and live in a 5m dollar house but he is at the end a salesman. Just with very high returns and knows his products well. The highest paid people in the world are sales and marketing executives, because they are the life blood of any company. This is the one area in a company that cannot be replaced by a machine or a mundane minion. Management can be mediocre but if the sales team is successful and the product is reasonable the company will thrive despite everything else. However if management is great and marketing is great the company will be excellent and grow rapidly.

    Companies whether Uranium, Gold or anything else are dependent on these two parts of them to be great to become great. Marketing can be seen at a glance by the design of their website and ease of use, while management can be gauged by how the company’s policy reflects to growth and how much profit it is making. One can discern poorly managed companies from well managed companies during price declines non more so than in the gold silver and uranium sector, within months of a big decline one can tell which are the good companies, not by how large they are but by how much they decline and what steps management takes to control the losses and how they intend to survive. In massive declines like the current one the savy investor will only invest in these great companies. There is a difference between individual and sector declines. Individual declines while the rest of the sector is moving up shows there is something very wrong with the company, DO NOT under any circumstances consider one stock that is declining as a good investment or an opportunity to get in. Rather the indicators tell one to STAY AWAY. Always invest in the direction of the trend. Consider the overall daily trend, then look at the lower time zones if available, daily fluctuations will occur and it is vital that when you purchase you do not buy at market unless there is an aggressive movement, rather place a price based on daily highs and lows and try to get in as low as possible for the day by bidding a price that is reachable. Place stop losses below the daily low or weekly low if possible if it is near enough. Never loose more than 20% of the value of the stock. I assure you that the fastest way to close your account is by not placing stop losses. Finally never trust the SALESMAN, remember that most are there to make money and they do not care if you loose or gain. Very few are going to take the time to actually help you. They work on commission and differences of price and to them you are simply another small client. With companies like scot trade or Ameri trade there is no salesman, you make your decision and you win or loose, the companies make money.

    From time to time Dixsons used to have fire sales. Good products that were not fast moving took up floor space and retailers simply do not have the capacity to sit on old stock, so they need to get rid of it. They actually place the goods at real value, cost value or slightly below cost value for short periods of time to entice customers to take the products off the floor space. Sometimes it’s a strategy, where prices are hiked for a period of minimum time eg one month and then brought back to its original selling price stating that the product is heavily discounted OR if a product is being replaced by a newer one there will be a genuine drop of price.

    Stocks have fire sales too, but some times like in Uranium you simply have a closing down sale. Everything must go. The problem with discounted items is; like a shop keeper buying discounted products, do you have a real opportunity to profit and will there be any buyers in the end? With Uranium we will because there is no replacable product for uranium. 470 power stations cannot simply shut off and use coal tomorrow or even in 5 years. Neither can they replace uranium with Thorium or any other product. So yes, even now there is demand and the only reason the price for the sector has dropped is because of the situation in Japan and eventually it will sort it self out however it is unlikely in the shorter period to see prices for uranium rising above real value which would be between 45 and 60 dollars to the pound. In such a situation it is vital to only purchase stocks that have a uranium whose cost value is far lower but have suffered due to the entire sector being beaten down.

    In my opinion there is only one company that has such real value and that is Cameco. No other company has such high concentration uranium and no company has deposits as large as they do with such concentrations.

    A late night conversation with a big investor in Kenya, brought out some interesting facts. Nairobi actually sits on a fault line, and the worlds largest valley passes smack in the middle of Kenya literally dividing the African continent in two vertically on a map. The Great Rift Valley is an on going event, but Nairobi is also rapidly becoming one of the most expensive cities to live in and dangerous despite that houses prices have simply continued to defy gravity and the bubble has grown to euphoric proportions. My friend there is a very savy investor and he concluded that now was not the time to buy but the time to sell properties in Nairobi and that there was a good chance of everything collapsing around our ears. True! All it will take in a country like that is a coup (These things happen in Africa all the time) or a Terrorist Attack repeating it self or an earth quake. Even a depletion of the water table around Nairobi will lead to chaos, worse still the possibility of a plague occurring are very real. In short Nairobi is a ticking time bomb with several fuses lit. I asked him if he was selling properties, and he replied; “YES” but in small portions. A half acre plot in Nairobi is averaging about 2 million dollars on the outskirts. It’s a ridiculous price and it is a bubble which will burst. One can never tell how large the bubble will grow before it blows in our faces. The tulip bubble is one of the best examples I can give. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania Property prices in Kenya are irrational, fueled by funds being driven into the country by the Diaspora and comparing investing to the countries they currently live in shows a huge disparity in the interest rates which is encouraging this investing madness. The same is occurring in India but at a lesser rate. However Kenya’s real estate market is ridiculous. Now investors are purchasing on plan placing 10% down on several properties that they absolutely know they cannot afford to purchase and selling them back into the markets several months later taking profits of 15% to 50% on their initial investment. Sounds familiar? Basically they are taking options out on the properties being built and it wont be long before more schemes will come out. This is usually the last stage of a bubble and is akin to a run away train with the tracks about to run out.

    One must really look at any investment critically and distance them selves to get a true picture of what is going on. STEP AWAY from the chart and look at several in the sector together and they will paint a true picture of what is going on. Just like a general defending his fort, and investor too must find the right time to shoot his cannons, Do it too early and the shots will miss do it too late and they will go over the top of the target. The distance and timing must be near perfect. In olden times as Archers shot from the fort walls they would place distance markers on the ground where the enemy were going to come through, distances would be measured and angle of flight would be marked, and as the enemy approached the marks the archers would be given the distance and the time to shoot their arrows for maximum casualties.

    Investing is no different, use the EMA, MACD, ICHIMUKU, OBV and anything else that works for you to mark your points of entry. Strategize your shots for maximum returns giving yourself the best chance possible. At the Bottom you BUY and at the top you SELL. One has to wait patiently for one or the other to occur. Remember this time because as it has taken years for sectors like Uranium and Gold to get this low, so it will take for it to get high. Therefore once in do not have itchy fingers to get out with profit, but once more mark points of exit and set a strategy that works for you.

    In my experience (and believe me I have had a lot experience doing this) of loosing I have learnt that one requires to apply rules, rules that the price must pass before any commitment. It is simply not enough to see the price at all time highs or lows to decide that this is the place to get in. FAR FROM IT.

    The first thing to decide is; “Are you a trader or an investor?”

    If you are a trader the rules slightly differ to an investors point of view.

    Are you a day trader, a swing trader, or a trend trader?

    So look within your self and struggle to find clarity. I have written a number of different articles on this thread on how to focus. Albit confusing as they apply the zen of Archery in examples but I assure you the principles are the same. The practice of focusing is complicated, everything you do to your body matters and as to how serious you are to succeed. There are people who think its about CHANCE, a GAMBLE, A ROULETTE TABLE, the truth is that it is to an extent.

    There are millions of stocks out there and which ones will go up or down is difficult to decide. Secondly this is one game where it is better to be late than early roughly 70% of the time. This means you want to get in on a trend. IF the stocks going down you will 70% of the times if not more, FAIL to make money, and that is what I am assuming you are here to do, when the rest of the sector is in an up trend.. When I got into trading some ten years ago privately the game became very different. I learnt along with fellow readers and published what I found out. I figured that in the long term the energy requirements of the world were not going to go with coal or oil. A decision was made and the solution I found was nuclear power plants. Timing is everything. The most intelligent decision you will make in your life is when to keep your money in your pocket. The riskiest decision you will ever take is when you put your money on the table. When you do that make sure you put everything you can in your favor.

    At the Dixsons store people would came to buy large back projection TV’s these things were huge they could be as large as you would want them even wall size. What most people forgot before buying the damn things was; While the room was large enough how were you going to get it through a standard door? More returns occurred because of this one reason on large sales. Alternatively I planned my questions to lead to this point so that the client simply did not waste my time. If they were determined, I had a couple of people who specialized in taking down doors and making gaps for the TV to get through but that rarely occurred, most simply went for a smaller version eventually.

    Check all the factors before you decide to go buy the elephant in the room. Secondly don’t put all your money in at once. Break it down to fifths or even eights or tenths. Place a small bet as; “Testing the water”, then begin to add your parts in as the trade moves into your favor. Hold onto it until you clearly see a change in direction and then you must come out even if the trade reverts to the favorable side.

    The reason I never publish rules on the thread is because the rules vary for each and every individual and while general rules apply there will have to be some sub rules added to make it your personal rules.

    Remember the article on concentric circles that I published. (Circles of Change- post No 273- page 6 of this thread) Read this method to reduce the probability of failure and apply if possible to your set of rules when you trade. I cannot emphasize enough check and recheck every single thing and tick all the boxes before you go into a trade follow the recipe every single time, do not deviate from it. No matter what the price is WAIT for the trend to turn.

    There are a lot of articles that I have written on this thread going back four years and a hundred or more on the previous thread that closed down when this new site was set up. Luckily I do have copies of some of these articles on Word. A lot of articles were written directly on the post page, it was a ridiculous method of writing articles until one fine day the inevitable happened and an 8 hour worked article simply vanished on a glitch. Readers advised that I write them on Word and copy and paste it, which I did and continue to do so.

    We all learn something new every day. I often look back at some of the articles and have to read them to remind myself of what I had written before; some of it obviously has become redundant, but other articles are pretty valid even today. Similarly in order to refresh your concept on Uranium it is prudent to go back and read articles written back to the time when Uranium was in a bull cycle. While I would wish to be a buyer of Cameco at 14.50 let me remind you that there are other stocks in the alternative energy sector that have dropped due to the general downturn of the Dow and S&P which need to be kept an eye on. Markets correct and this is healthy for them, but we cannot tell (and I suspect no one can) if it is a correction or a downturn. Right now I simply ask readers to keep an eye on TSL, CSIQ, FSLR and YGE as well as SUNE. The leaders of the pack remain FSLR SUNE, CSIQ. All of the above are currently in down trend so it is not advisable to go long on these.

    Gold is as usual unpredictable. I had mentioned several months ago that gold may drop down, I do not know if it will drop any further from here but there is that distinct possibility of it dropping further. First it has to get past 1185 which has massive buyer support. A break below that and we will find the next support in the 1150 area followed by 1135 and finally 1100. While at present many will disagree, but my analysis shows that the up trend on the daily chart is NOT CONFIRMED. While many others who do read this thread may curse me, but caution is the key here and until that confirmation comes a BUY SIGNAL cannot be given. This may take some time and one may loose a 50 to 70 dollar rise but I assure you that it is important to have a trend confirmation. I do not use the 4 hr chart to do this simply because there is too much volatility to take it for granted. It is therefore possible that the bulls may have temporarily stopped gold from dropping but this in turn has not confirmed a strong move upwards either showing the bulls exhausting their strength to move the price upwards from here. It may well turn out that the bulls now do have control but yet to be confirmed. OR the bears will wait a while before making another attempt to take gold further down. In terms of probability there is a higher probability of the price moving upwards for the near future as the 15 min, 1hr and 4hr charts show an up trend. Purchase if you have the courage as this is not a bad price. Alternatively you can risk waiting for another downside which can come as the reason gold is moving up at present is due to the drop in the dow and S&P which are showing a down trend for the present. A push up of these two may see gold dropping once more.

    This week the article is a little longer for two reasons; I was feeling a little better this last two weeks and so I managed to type out a lot more than I expected and the other reason is that a close friend recently found out some devastating news. I know that many of us are retired, though there are some who will be much younger but this is for them too.

    I have faced a number of bad events in my life and it has changed my attitude to life profoundly. I do not seek to bring comfort to anyone, as there are plenty of close relations to all of us that will do so, rather I am attempting to understand the purpose of both life and death and what we seek to accomplish, but I had to look back at life and think once more of what is its purpose as we have no understanding of the journey after, except for what we take for granted in our religious books.

    Let us for a moment consider our status in the universe. We live on a minuscule planet, perhaps we are the only planet life was accidentally created, perhaps we are the only ones out there, and then perhaps not.

    On this planet billions of life forms live and die, but we consider ourselves unique in that we not only have the ability to think and develop our thinking faster than the known creatures but we have another unique ability and that is to be aware of ourselves and consciousness. We have attempted to understand our surroundings, made more mistakes than others and yet we continue to progress in our development.

    We are part of this planet and at the same time apart from it. We are able to distance our selves and attempt to manage the wellbeing of this planet; perhaps nature intended this to be so. Despite all this one of the greatest questions eludes an answer, what is the true purpose of our life and many philosophers have attempted to answer this and failed abysmally.

    We forget that we are not individuals even though we live under the illusion, rather we are a hive, a group and we have several levels of purposes, our natural purpose is to survive and thrive, but that is the purpose of even a devastating disease such as Ebola. Every creature on the planet wishes to survive and thrive because it is directed by nature itself to do so, simply because nature itself must also survive and thrive in order for the planet to thrive and survive.

    While we may seek comfort into thinking we are the superior species on the planet, the truth is we are dictated by nature to do its bidding, based on Newtons simple law of action and reaction. Nature applies it aptly when it requires action from us and it is a continuous process where we react to counter.

    Whether we like it or not we are part of an immense universe, that this planet in turn is simply a part of and in all probability we are unlikely to be alone, still if this theory is correct then the universe too has a nature of its own and a purpose. It too is conscious and its purpose too is to survive. Its agenda is to project a universal conscious and how does it do that? Every element in the universe has a memory. Take mercury move the drops apart and they find like minded individuals and will join up the droplets form back into a pool. Water too finds itself and knows that strength is in numbers. The universe in reality is willing to conform to us. In the simple words found in the bible;
    “Ask and you shall receive!”

    have incredible meaning. Perhaps they mean “ask the universe and the universe will conform to your requirements.”

    For it is in the interest of the universe to seek harmony too. Harmony is what binds us together and provides strength in every single element. Water is made up of a number of elements over billions of years it created an alliance, for in this alliance it had strength and purpose. Who gave it purpose? Why these elements?

    Time is something we acknowledge but time is infinite and is it a man made thing and does the universe care about time? Was there time before the universe began? Time only appears to come into being the moment god or the consciousness created man. The issue of seven days comes into being when God created the world. Perhaps time only came into being the moment the universe was created simply because time had no purpose before that moment and therefore had no reason to exist.

    Krishna the hindu avatar of the god Vishnu, narrated the Hindu holy book; “The Bhagwat Gita”, on the battle field of a war between the five Pandavas and their cousins the hundred Kuravas. At the point when the two armies lined up Arjun, the third brother of five Pandavas asked Krishna who was his charioteer to take the chariot between the two armies so that he could see the two armies clearly. Krishna did so and as Arjun looked around he broke down as he realized that those that he was about to fight in this battle were all related to him. He was overcome by this connection and saddened inconsolably, by the inevitable death that would result. Once more the requirement of harmony and purpose comes in through the relations built through birth.

    Krishna at this point takes a moment of time and narrates the whole meaning and purpose of life as he saw it which came to be known as the Bhaghwat Gita. Finally Arjun understood and asked; “Where is this superior conciousness?”

    Krishna replied; He is the universe, he is without, he is within and he is you, he is I, he is nowhere and he is everywhere and in everything. Krishna as an avatar of the god Vishnu him self was also affected by these rule sand had to follow them. This indicates that there was something superior and far more powerful than he was.

    It is a profound thing to say by any person and yet if we take the meaning in context to the fact that every miniscule piece of us is part of the universe we may achieve a greater understanding and find peace to the purpose of life.

    Let us for a moment consider that life is a cycle. That our very elements recycle when either our purpose has been fulfilled or failed because nothing is ever destroyed, it is simply changed. All these elements take away something from this experience, where each experience makes an indent on our very elements and this is what we consider as the soul, but the soul is without death, it is the one thing that we humans to a greater degree believe exists and if it does, it cannot be static, rather it must be feeding on something, not in the same sense as we do, but perhaps on our very thoughts, and our experiences, in that sense I believe we are immortals because while we may not take the physical wealth when we pass on, we do attain spiritual wealth and knowledge and this gives the very elements the purpose to separate and once more find like minded individual elements that gather once more to fulfill another purpose building constantly on the experiences from past to garner those in the future.

    So how do the elements know where to go and who to gather with? (The soul). The answer lies within ourselves and on this very planet. When a drop of water come to the ground where does it gather? With other drops and when there are more where do they gather? In a pond or river. Where do they flow? Towards the ocean. So I expect do our souls just like the water droplets they gather and move towards the greater power as they are truly part of the omnipresent, thus they will return back to where they came from.

    Purpose is desired, and when that purpose is heard by the universe it conforms to that desire and billions of others, constantly changing, ebbing and flowing making billions of little changes to allow it and others to survive. Our very thoughts may provide the answer to the existence of the universe and that is why it allows us to exist for we fulfill a purpose. Perhaps we are here to give it the answer when we are ready.

    When Einstein came up with the theory of relativity most things within the universe could be explained but there was one thing that could not and that was the theory of black holes. Black holes in space are a phenomenon that we can only theoretically state exist. No one has actually seen a black hole in space. The fact that something supposed to be so small yet with so much gravitational force cannot be explained by the theory of relativity. They say that one huge black hole exists within almost the center of each galaxy and thousands others exits around the galaxy. They now believe black holes play an important part in the galaxies that surround us. Furthermore what happens to things that do disappear into a black hole? Do they cease to exist? One theory states that time does not stop and the singularity is squeezed to such an extent that it creates a new miniature universe within. Sounds familiar to our own birth and death. In truth everything can be related to everything else whether sensible or not.

    That purpose to the universe appears important. Our nature and the way the elements have rules allow us to have a sense of automation, but the most important thing to take away from all this is; the end of one journey is simply the beginning of a new one.

    Our mind is governed by our emotional attachment to the world around us. Our mother, father, brother, sister, sons, daughters but the truth is that all these attachments are fulfilling their own purpose and that is for the simple sake of protection. Its natural to do so and use every arsenal in our defense.

    Once we pass away on the first day people cry on the second day they put up our photo and look with sadness, by the end of a year our photo is part of a wall, and by the end of ten years most will not even wipe off the dust, so why do we when we are living have such strong attachments? I am not saying that we should stop doing our duty, that is part of the rules and we must follow them but have no regrets or worries about what happens after we leave for no one in reality was ours so how did we in the end leave them? We simply do our duty to those we are responsible for and we enjoy our moment with them, but they have their destiny and you have yours, the two are in reality not connected.

    Our attachments and relations that we build govern us, but they have their own purpose and the final lesson that we do learn in the autumn or winter of our lives is the lesson of detachment. To be detached provides us with the release we require to understand our purpose. Without detachment we are unable to focus on the more important purposes as we get engrossed in the illusion of relationships and emotions. Put aside these and step back and look at the world. I assure you will see it in a different light.

    The purpose of this last few paragraphs is to try and bring comfort to those who may be going through a difficult time now and perhaps other as we all will in the near future. It is a different way to look at the world but it ahs nothing to do with our fundamental beliefs, just an alternate outlook that warrants some thought.

    The excitement of a new journey must over come the grief and regret of ending an old one, for even before we began it we knew that it had an end, therefore we take solace from acknowledging this, but also at the same moment get ready for a new adventure and a new purpose and a new journey. This is simply the beginning.

    I wish everyone a good and peaceful weekend.


    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
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  18. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Could Cameco Corporation Hit $40?
    By Andrew Walker - October 16, 2014 | See also: CCJCCO




    0

    inShare
    It’s an ugly scene in the commodity markets these days. Investors are watching a broad-based blowout and uranium miners are no exception. Shareholders of Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO)(NYSE: CCJ) have been in pain for a while. In fact, they have watched the stock drop from $40 in early 2011, to the current price of about $18.

    Global equity markets look like they are about to roll off the cliff, so why would anyone consider putting new money to work in this environment? In the case of Cameco Corporation, the story is a compelling one right now for contrarian investors.

    Here’s why.

    Uranium prices have bottomed

    The spot price of uranium reached multi-year lows below $30 per pound in the summer but the market has experienced a significant bounce off the lows over the past two months. In fact, the price is holding steady above $35 per pound. The value is still too low for most producers to be profitable, but it’s a start. For the moment, the equity markets have mostly ignored the gains and that might continue in the near term.

    Russian sanctions are partly responsible for the recent strength in the price. The standoff between Putin and the West is probably still in its early stages, so the uranium market should see continued price support on that front.

    Demand will increase

    Cameco expects more than 90 net new nuclear reactors to go into operation in the next 10 years, as China and India race to keep up with electricity demand. Analysts also expect at least 30 of Japan’s reactors to be restarted by 2019. According to Cameco’s forecasts, the current global demand for uranium of 170 million pounds will hit 240 million pounds by 2023. Miners are producing about 160 million pounds right now, with the rest of the demand being filled by secondary supplies.

    Uranium supplies will be tight

    The current oversupply in the uranium market should disappear in the next 18-24 months. Producers have cut back on production, and secondary supplies that have filled demand on the spot market are slowly being worked through. Low prices have forced miners to postpone new projects and demand projections now suggest the market could see a significant supply shortage by the end of the decade.

    Why Cameco’s shares should outperform

    Cameco is still profitable, even in the current low-priced environment. In its Q2 2014 earnings statement the company reported profits of $127 million. Cameco enjoys a huge competitive advantage in the uranium space because it holds some of the highest-grade deposits on the planet. The company’s McArthur River asset is the world’s largest and highest-grade mine. This is a critical point for long-term investors.

    With the uranium space being so beaten up, any good news in the market will send producers higher. Investors saw this happen when Cameco’s shares rallied nearly 50% from October 2013 to March 2014 on the expectation that Japan was going to restart two reactors.

    Risks?

    Cameco has an ongoing tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency. In the Q2 2014 report, the company said it now sees its risk at $625-650 million. If Cameco loses the case, which could be decided in 2015, the shares could get hit hard.

    The next surge in uranium prices will likely be Japan-related, but the long-term fundamentals suggest a sustained move is inevitable. For investors willing to ride out some short-term volatility, the potential gains at this point are significant.

    Cameco is an interesting pick, but it can be volatile. If you are more comfortable with a low-beta company that consistently rewards investors with both dividend growth and capital appreciation, one stock is much better. Our top analyst has done his homework and is recommending one Canadian company that should be the foundation of every portfolio.
     
  19. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Sagi

    Post #377 "Coffee With Carrot Head" is one of your best. Thanks for sharing :thumbs_up:

    Have a great night

    Search
     
  20. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dear Searcher,

    Thank you for the compliment. I appreciate it.

    SAGI
     
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  21. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    This is dedicated to my friend and fellow readers. This is for you TH!


    When an old man died in the geriatric ward of a nursing home in an Australian country town, it was believed that he had nothing left of any value.
    Later, when the nurses were going through his meager possessions, They found this poem. Its quality and content so impressed the staff that copies were made and distributed to every nurse in the hospital.

    One nurse took her copy to Melbourne. The old man's sole bequest to posterity has since appeared in the Christmas editions of magazines around the country and appearing in mags for Mental Health. A slide presentation has also been made based on his simple, but eloquent, poem.

    And this old man, with nothing left to give to the world, is now the author of this 'anonymous' poem winging across the Internet.

    Cranky Old Man

    What do you see nurses? . . .. . .What do you see?
    What are you thinking .. . when you're looking at me?
    A cranky old man, . . . . . .not very wise,
    Uncertain of habit .. . . . . . . .. with faraway eyes?
    Who dribbles his food .. . ... . . and makes no reply.
    When you say in a loud voice . .'I do wish you'd try!'
    Who seems not to notice . . .the things that you do.
    And forever is losing . . . . . .. . . A sock or shoe?
    Who, resisting or not . . . ... lets you do as you will,
    With bathing and feeding . . . .The long day to fill?
    Is that what you're thinking?. .Is that what you see?
    Then open your eyes, nurse .you're not looking at me.
    I'll tell you who I am . . . . .. As I sit here so still,
    As I do at your bidding, .. . . . as I eat at your will.
    I'm a small child of Ten . .with a father and mother,
    Brothers and sisters .. . . .. . who love one another
    A young boy of Sixteen . . . .. with wings on his feet
    Dreaming that soon now . . .. . . a lover he'll meet.
    A groom soon at Twenty . . . ..my heart gives a leap.
    Remembering, the vows .. .. .that I promised to keep.
    At Twenty-Five, now . . . . .I have young of my own.
    Who need me to guide . . . And a secure happy home.
    A man of Thirty . .. . . . . My young now grown fast,
    Bound to each other . . .. With ties that should last.
    At Forty, my young sons .. .have grown and are gone,
    But my woman is beside me . . to see I don't mourn.
    At Fifty, once more, .. ...Babies play 'round my knee,
    Again, we know children . . . . My loved one and me.
    Dark days are upon me . . . . My wife is now dead.
    I look at the future ... . . . . I shudder with dread.
    For my young are all rearing .. . . young of their own.
    And I think of the years . . . And the love that I've known.
    I'm now an old man . . . . . . .. and nature is cruel.
    It's jest to make old age . . . . . . . look like a fool.
    The body, it crumbles .. .. . grace and vigor, depart.
    There is now a stone . . . where I once had a heart.
    But inside this old carcass . A young man still dwells,
    And now and again . . . . . my battered heart swells
    I remember the joys . . . . .. . I remember the pain.
    And I'm loving and living . . . . . . . life over again.
    I think of the years, all too few . . .. gone too fast.
    And accept the stark fact . . . that nothing can last.
    So open your eyes, people .. . . . .. . . open and see.
    Not a cranky old man .
    Look closer . . . . see .. .. . .. .... . ME!!

    Remember this poem when you next meet an older person who you might brush aside without looking at the young soul within. We will all, one day, be there, too!

    PLEASE SHARE THIS POEM (originally by Phyllis McCormack; adapted by Dave Griffith)

    The best and most beautiful things of this world can't be seen or touched. They must be felt by the heart!
     
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  22. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Sagi

    Great post (#381.) Hope you don't mind - sent it world wide.
    Hope all is well. Have a great day :beerglass:

    Search
     
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  23. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  24. cano

    cano New Member

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  25. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    DISCLOSURE: BOUGHT SOME SHARES IN CAMECO-TESTING THE WATERS.

    SAGI
     
  26. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Colin Healey: suppressed uranium price shouldn't keep hedged producers and promising explorers down


    The Mining Report | November 4, 2014


    Near-term oversupply is suppressing uranium prices but there are signs of upside movement, says Colin Healey, research analyst with Haywood Securities. In this interview with The Mining Report, he notes that non-discretionary buying in the uranium spot market returned in Q3/14 after a lengthy absence and that the 71 reactors being built around the world should support Haywood's long-term $75/lb uranium forecast. Healey also discusses companies suited to perform in the current market and beyond.

    The Mining Report: The spot price for uranium stayed below $30 per pound ($30/lb) in May through late July. Since then the price popped up above $36/lb before settling at around $35/lb. Is that the near-term floor?

    Colin Healey: It's a difficult call. Two things give us hope that we may see support at current levels. We saw the return of non-discretionary buying to the spot market in Q3/14 after an absence of three consecutive quarters—something we haven't seen since 2005. We look for non-discretionary buying to thin the market of available material and underpin support for uranium prices at current levels. The return of non-discretionary buying is important.

    We also look for greater activity in the term market where an increase in contracting activity should also increase the competition for material in the spot market. We expect a sustainable rally in the spot market to coincide with progressive increases in the term price over the next 24 months. As of this week we saw no new interest in the term market, but much of that is traded off-market. We're watching closely for anything that might move the term price. We saw the UxC Consulting Co. (UxC) weekly spot price come up $0.85 to $36.50/lb, which adds some confidence.


    TMR: Are there signs that non-discretionary buying will continue?

    CH: It's difficult to get transparent data on that. In the most recent quarter we saw the first return of non-discretionary buying as a small component of the total volume in the spot market. If that materializes into a trend, then we might have some evidence that it is returning in a meaningful way.


    TMR: Why didn't the end of Russia's "Megatons to Megawatts" create greater price strength in the uranium space in 2014? And what's responsible for the overhang on uranium prices now?

    CH: As a major source of secondary uranium supply, the loss of the Megatons to Megawatts program was a significant event. It shifted the balance in total supply in favor of primary sources—although any impact will be tempered in the near term by the fact that the market remains oversupplied. The program was structured with a defined timeline and as such its end was not a shock. There's a form of replacement agreement in place between the United States Enrichment Corp. (USEC) and Techsnabexport (TENEX), the commercial subsidiary of Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy, for delivery of enriched uranium to the U.S. with the U.S. delivering natural uranium in return, which covers about half the deliveries received under the Megatons to Megawatts program. That agreement appears to include an option to double the initial volume at the option of the USEC. The agreement is effectively a separative work unit (SWU) purchase contract where USEC is paying for enrichment services embedded in the Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) product TENEX is supplying.

    The good news is that this structure should mean that utilities are more reliant on primary uranium production than before and that should be ultimately bullish for uranium prices. Nevertheless, the market has been oversupplied for several years. Total supply in 2013 was about 207 million pounds (207 Mlb) versus demand of around 172 Mlb, reflecting a surplus of about 35 Mlb. In 2014, we estimate a surplus of 20 Mlb, which contributes to an overhang in prices.


    TMR: Haywood forecasts the 2015 spot price at $39.50/lb, but in 2016 that jumps to $53/lb. What are the catalysts that are going to push the price 34% higher?

    CH: We're looking for progressive growth in long-term and spot prices based on a more normalized demand-supply relationship. Prices remain low as the market continues to be oversupplied, and as a result, as much as 30% of current primary supply is thought to be uneconomic at current spot prices. Driving our appreciating forecast are the 71 reactors currently under construction globally, coupled with a rationalization on the production side, whereby benchmark uranium prices will begin to move toward the marginal cost of production, which itself will shift with eventual production atrophy.

    The global reactor construction pipeline is important. New reactor fuel loadings require about three times more uranium than the average annual burn of the same reactor, so there's an increase in demand when a fixed pipeline of new reactors comes on-line. We also believe that a return to nuclear power in Japan will help the situation. We're looking for between two and six units to be restarted in 2015. Our price forecast is underpinned by an assumption of tight demand-supply balance in uranium markets by 2017 with the price coming up to a point that rationalizes the majority of current production, plus provides an incentive for new mines.


    TMR: Your average price for 2016 is $65/lb. How much of that is based on more reactors restarting in Japan?

    CH: The return of Japan to nuclear power isn't as significant as the construction pipeline. It's more of a sentiment indicator, which we believe could move uranium stocks. We believe that Japan has significant uranium inventory, which should support consumption during the restarts. It's really the pipeline of reactors under construction that is underpinning the majority of our bullishness on the uranium price.

    Furthermore, we believe the term market will respond alongside the spot market to the catalysts I mentioned. The term market is a better gauge of the overall condition of the sector. In 2013, reported term market volumes were very low at just over 20 Mlb, versus 191 Mlb in 2012, and over 100 Mlb in 2011. We've seen a bit of a recovery in volume in 2014 at almost 70 Mlb. We expect term market volume to pick up steadily in the coming months as uncovered utility requirements grow. We expect 2015 to be even busier.


    TMR: Despite a price run-up in August, most uranium equities, especially the producers, did not follow the spot price higher. How do you explain that?

    CH: The resource sector has had a rough ride over the last two months with the TSX Venture Index down more than 20% since the end of August. Most uranium equities were not spared. Recent positive uranium spot price movements have failed to reverse the negative trend in the equities and, in the near term, equities will respond to macro news, such as in Japan where 19 of 26 assembly members recently voted in favor of nuclear reactor restarts. Another positive vote of the Prefectural Assembly, expected later this week, could mean reactor restarts in Japan in the first half of 2015. We are seeing reports in the press that only 8 of the 49 members of the Assembly oppose restarts.


    TMR: Do you have any insight into the investor mindset on the commodity?

    CH: We're looking beyond the spot market to the term market for material consecutive movements month-over-month to gauge the sector. A movement in long-term price indicators, say $3–4/lb, in consecutive months would reflect the beginning of a meaningful return to the term market by utilities. We believe that would wake up the broad market to the equities.

    For the producers, there are few tradable pure-play uranium producers, some of which have limited gearing to spot market prices, such as Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE), where term contracts represent a majority of sales. Paladin Energy Ltd.'s (PDN:TSX; PDN:ASX) sales correlate well to spot prices, but Paladin still has term-debt maturity issues it's trying to resolve by year-end. There's significant uncertainty surrounding how that will be managed. We have a $0.50 target and a Hold rating on Paladin.


    TMR: What are those debt issues?

    CH: In November 2015 Paladin has $300 million ($300M) in debt maturing, and it has to deal with it. Our concern is that the company has not been clear on a strategy to deal with it. Paladin has said that it could sell interests in assets but it has already sold 25% of its flagship Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia to the Chinese for $200M. With all that uncertainty, we aren't calling it a Buy at this time.


    TMR: Research reports from Haywood suggest that near-term producers and select explorers are the uranium equities most likely to perform. Is that your view?

    CH: We certainly saw the biggest response from the near-term producers and developers during the rally in uranium equities from late November 2013 to mid-March 2014. We would expect that group to lead the pack in the next rally as well. This group is preproduction and is not selling and depleting their resources into a weak market. In that regard their cash flows tend to be linked to their development budgets, and their general and administrative expenses, making their cash flow more predictable. They offer historic correlation to uranium price movement without the direct cash flow exposure to the uranium price that we get with the current producers.


    TMR: What are some explorers that you're following?

    CH: We cover Denison Mines Corp. (DML:TSX; DNN:NYSE.MKT) with a $2.10 target and a Buy rating. This is one of our favorite names for gaining exposure to the sector. Denison has an extremely high-grade and strategic exploration asset at its 60%-owned Wheeler River project in northern Saskatchewan; Cameco owns 30%. Denison also has a 22.5% stake in the McClean Lake mill, which has undergone significant upgrading in recent years. That was paid for by the Cigar Lake joint venture in preparation for processing ore from the Cigar Lake mine, which recently started production. Denison will realize some toll-milling revenue from its stake in the mill and its 2015 exploration plan is fully financed to explore a suite of exploration assets in the basin.


    TMR: Denison extended the Gryphon zone at Wheeler River. Please tell our readers why that's meaningful.

    CH: The Gryphon zone is important to Denison because the current resource of 70 Mlb at the Wheeler River project is approaching the critical mass required for development. Demonstrating the potential of the Gryphon zone to add pounds to that project's resource is critical. A resource of 90 Mlb or so would probably place Wheeler River in a position to be developed at our mid- to long-term uranium price forecast. The discovery and addition of the Gryphon zone has the potential to transform Wheeler River from a great discovery into something that really leap-frogs up the global development pipeline.


    TMR: What are some other exploration stories?

    CH: In the southwestern Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan we have followed Fission Uranium Corp. (FCU:TSX) and NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE:TSX.V) in our Junior Exploration Report for several consecutive quarters. Fission has drilled over 260 holes into its significant discovery at Patterson Lake South. The next major catalyst for Fission would be its maiden resource estimate, which is expected by year-end.


    TMR: Fission climbed about 10% in late October. Was that sentiment driven or was there material news?

    CH: Fission sold down from mid-September levels of $1.15/share or so to the mid-$0.60 range. It may have been just viewed as oversold and once the selling pressure disappeared it bounced back. We don't have a formal target on Fission.


    TMR: What can you tell us about NexGen?

    CH: NexGen's Arrow deposit at the Rook I project is a newer discovery on trend with Fission's Patterson Lake South. NexGen intersected some very high grades at Rook I during summer drilling. We expect NexGen to announce a significant winter drill program to continue to follow-up on summer work on the project. It recently arranged a $10M financing, which is set to close in early November. We don't have a formal target on NexGen.


    TMR: How should investors view NexGen's $10M raise?

    CH: In this market it's nice to have financing in place in excess of the budget for the next drill program. I would suspect the company raised only what it thought it needed, plus a small cushion, so that it could avoid any excess dilution. With the good results at the end of the winter program, hopefully NexGen will be able to do its next round of financing at a better price.


    TMR: Let's move to the producers. Tell us about some compelling narratives in that space.

    CH: We follow several of the newer U.S.-based in-situ recovery (ISR) producers, including Uranerz Energy Corp. (URZ:TSX; URZ:NYSE.MKT) and Ur-Energy Inc. (URE:TSX; URG:NYSE.MKT) with Buy ratings on both. We cover Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR:TSX; EFRFF:OTCQX; UUUU:NYSE.MKT) with a Buy rating as well; it is a conventional uranium producer in the U.S. We also follow Paladin and Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC:NYSE.MKT). We currently have Hold ratings on those.

    Uranerz is a new producer and it's set to deliver its first financial results since the company registered first sales of uranium in September. When it releases its financials at some point in early November we expect to gain some insight into average realized pricing where Uranerz is selling into contract with U.S. utilities. We expect those prices to be at a significant premium to current market prices for uranium given that it signed those contracts a few years ago at higher prevailing benchmark prices. As of today, its sales remain in confidential contracts. We don't have initial operating data on Uranerz's well field in Wyoming, but we are hoping to get our first look at operating data from Uranerz with financial reporting over the next couple of weeks.


    TMR: Uranerz sold its first concentrate from Nichols Ranch in Wyoming for about $4M. What's next?

    CH: We estimated the sale at $4M for 75,000 lb uranium oxide, but we don't know the exact amount because the contracts are confidential. $4M would reflect an average realized price of just over $53/lb. The actual price could be upward of $56/lb, but we just don’t know yet. Our estimates are based on when the contracts were signed and prevailing prices at the time. Typically utilities are purchasing on average about 70+% of their material on term contracts for security of supply and budgeting purposes rather than playing around in the spot market.

    We saw the price at $28/lb each week during the summer lows, and wondered why no one is clearing the spot market. Then we see someone trying to buy small amounts and the price shoots up to $35/lb and we understand why sophisticated buyers prefer term contracts. Spot market depth is difficult to judge and price discovery is weak. We have a $1.80 target and a Buy rating on Uranerz.


    TMR: What about Ur-Energy?

    CH: Ur-Energy is also expected to report quarterly results shortly. We expect the highlight to also be high average realized pricing on its uranium sales, possibly in excess of $60/lb. Based on company guidance, the average realized pricing for the remainder of 2014 should be quite favorable. We expect that to be the highlight there.


    TMR: Ur-Energy's main asset is its Lost Creek ISR mine in Wyoming. How does it compare with assets in its peer group?

    CH: Ur-Energy has a couple of quarters of production in the books and the company has had excellent initial well field head grades. With ISR uranium mines you don't really know until you launch production how a well field is going to perform. It has had above-budget head grades pretty much since it entered commercial production. In operating a well field, you want the uranium to be easily liberated from the deposit and that's what is happening at Lost Creek. In our view, it compares quite favorably to assets in its peer group.

    Ur-Energy's well fields have certainly been performing in excess of management expectations. We had some earlier concerns about water disposal, but the company has addressed those issues and we reinstated our Buy rating on Ur-Energy and have a $1.70 target.


    TMR: You mentioned Uranium Energy Corp. What's happening there?

    CH: Uranium Energy has a hub-and-spoke strategy with the Hobson ISR processing plant at the center of that hub. Its flagship project—the Goliad project in South Texas—is not in production. The Palangana well fields that were in production are now more or less on care and maintenance. We don't have a lot of operational data on those assets, but they seemed to be underperforming before they were taken offline due to low uranium prices. We're waiting on a Goliad construction update from Uranium Energy before we make any further decisions about the company. We see better opportunity in our Buy-rated companies, like Uranerz and Ur-Energy. We have a $1.70 target and a Hold rating on Uranium Energy.


    TMR: What about Energy Fuels?

    CH: Energy Fuels' current strategy is to leverage its strong contracting book. The company is not expected to produce from processing of conventional ore at its White Mesa mill in 2015, rather it will sell into its favorably priced contract book from inventory. It will decide to produce more uranium once it believes there is price support well above current levels. We like the company because of that contract book and because it's in the position to respond to recovering uranium prices and make that production decision, yet still generate revenue from sales during 2015.


    TMR: It's essentially 100% hedged. What are your thoughts on that strategy?

    CH: You could interpret it as 100% hedged, but I wouldn't because it has the ability to produce and sell additional material into current prices, offering potential gearing to uranium price when justified. Energy Fuels decided to sell into its contracts because those contracts are priced in excess of current market prices. Its planned sales are all contract, which is by definition hedged, but the company can turn on the production switch and generate sales at the prevailing uranium price, though it would probably take six to nine months to ramp up production from mines; stockpiled ore could be processed sooner. We have a $12.50 target on Energy Fuels and a Buy rating.


    TMR: Few, if any, uranium producers have outperformed the TSX Composite Index so far in 2014. Do you expect a similar story in 2015?

    CH: It's a difficult call in the near term as uranium prices have proven very tricky to forecast and the short list of producers have diverse production methods, scales and capital structures. Our commodity price forecast for the next three years calls for a significant appreciation, as we highlighted. If our uranium price forecast proves to be accurate over the next few years, I would expect uranium producers to outperform the Composite, at least in terms of nominal returns and not attempting to compare the risk-adjusted returns of the TSX Composite Index.


    TMR: Thank you for talking with us, Colin.


    Colin Healey joined Haywood in 2008 as a mining associate focusing on the uranium, iron ore and coal sectors. Immediately prior to his arrival at Haywood, Healey worked at a major Canadian bank as an analyst structuring debt financing across a wide variety of industries. Prior to joining the finance industry seven years ago, he worked for eight years as quality manager in an ISO 17025-accredited laboratory that performed extensive assay and analysis work for major mining and precious metals refining companies. He holds a Master of Business Administration from the Schulich School of Business at York University, majoring in finance and investments, as well as a Bachelor of Commerce degree majoring in computer information systems and a technical diploma in mechanical engineering.

    Want to read more Mining Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Mining Report home page.


    Source: Brian Sylvester



    DISCLOSURE:
    1) Brian Sylvester conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports LLC, publisher of The Gold Report, The Energy Report, The Life Sciences Report and The Mining Report, and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He owns, or his family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

    2) Colin Healey: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: Denison Mines Corp., Energy Fuels Inc., Uranerz Energy Corp. and Uranium Energy Corp. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I determined and had final say over which companies would be included in the interview based on my research, understanding of the sector and interview theme. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

    3) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Energy Fuels Inc., Fission Uranium Corp., Ur-Energy Inc. and Uranerz Energy Corp. The companies mentioned in this interview were not involved in any aspect of the interview preparation or post-interview editing so the expert could speak independently about the sector. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services.

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  27. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    GOLD UPDATE: It appears that despite the steep declines in gold coming to previous lows the nature of movement from the past shows that gold is not done with its move downwards. This is especially true if it begins to consolidate around the 1145.00 mark without a rapid incline showing that at least some of the larger players are getting back into gold. This indicates that the move downwards is not over. The weekly MACD chart indicates that there is still room to move downwards possibly breaching 1100 int he coming two months if not earlier. Even if a move upwards begins one will have to wait a little to see if this move fizzles out and gold as in the past when it reached 1250 declined to present lows may follow a similar pattern. 1135, 1100, 1088 followed by sub 1000 is possible. I am inclined to give my judgement and believe that it is unlikely to breach 1000, however there is a possibility of breaching 1100 if there is no turnaround from here.

    SAGI
     
  28. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Uranium stocks began to climb this week on the news that Japan will be restarting their Nuclear power stations.
    I purchased a small number of shares of Cameco and will continue to add some more on weakness. Looking at the charts these unusual movements tend to lead to over bought situations very quickly so for those looking to purchase, while it is a risk, should wait a little longer for the trend to settle in if it is going to be a longer term one or lead to the down side factoring in the possibility of a correction of the major indexes. We have seen the sector move as a group of major producers so this may turn out to be the beginning of a solid move but bid your time and buy in on weakness if possible. CCJ, PALAF,DNN are the only three to consider at present. There is little or no movement on GDLNF Greenland minerals and A-cap resources both of which are sitting on potentially large deposits. For the present stick to the producers.

    Gold has still got a down side potential despite the recent knee jerk reaction it gave. Give gold some time to show its true nature for the present the down trend is intact.

    SAGI
     
  32. SAGI

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    Nuclear industry shares IEA concern
    12 November 2014
    UPDATED - This article has been updated with information based on the IEA press briefing in London today (4.15pm 12 November).
    The World Nuclear Association (WNA) "shares the concern" of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that urgent action will be needed to steer the world's energy system onto a safer, low-carbon path.
    In the 2014 edition of its World Energy Outlook (WEO) issued in London today, the IEA said that nuclear power is one of the few options available at scale to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while providing or displacing other forms of baseload generation. It has avoided the release of an estimated 56 gigatonnes of CO2 since 1971, or almost two years of total global emissions at current rates.
    The WEO incorporates all the latest data and developments to produce a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of medium- and longer-term energy trends. The latest edition includes a special focus on nuclear energy.
    WNA Director General Agneta Rising said: "The IEA's central scenario would set us on a path of a dangerous increase in global temperatures. We must act to switch to cleaner and more affordable energy sources. Nuclear is a cost-effective way of producing reliable low-carbon electricity on a large scale and must form an increasing part of the world's energy supply if we are to get serious about addressing climate change."
    Policies concerning nuclear power will remain an "essential feature" of national energy strategies, even in countries which are committed to phasing out the technology and that must provide for alternatives, the WEO said.
    Global nuclear power capacity increases by almost 60% in the IEA's central scenario, from 392 GW in 2013 to over 620 GW in 2040. However, its share of global electricity generation that peaked almost two decades ago, rises by just one percentage point to 12%.
    "This pattern of growth reflects the challenges facing all types of new thermal generation capacity in competitive power markets and the specific suite of other economic, technical and political challenges that nuclear power has to overcome," the WEO said.
    Growth is concentrated in markets where electricity is supplied at regulated prices, utilities have state backing or governments act to facilitate private investment.
    Of the growth in nuclear generation to 2040, China accounts for 45% while India, Korea and Russia collectively make up a further 30%. Generation increases by 16% in the USA, rebounds in Japan (although not to the levels prior to the accident at Fukushima Daiichi) and falls by 10% in the European Union.
    "Despite the challenges it currently faces, nuclear power has specific characteristics that underpin the commitment of some countries to maintain it as a future option," it said. "Nuclear plants can contribute to the reliability of the power system where they increase the diversity of power generation technologies in the system. For countries that import energy, it can reduce their dependence on foreign supplies and limit their exposure to fuel price movements in international markets."
    In the IEA's 'low nuclear case' – in which global capacity drops by 7% compared with today – indicators of energy security tend to deteriorate in countries that utilise nuclear power. For example, the share of energy demand met from domestic sources is reduced in Japan (by 13 percentage points), Korea (by six) and the European Union (by four) relative to the IEA’s central scenario.
    Annual emissions avoided in 2040 due to nuclear power (as a share of projected emissions at that time) reach almost 50% in Korea, 12% in Japan, 10% in the USA, 9% in the European Union and 8% in China. The average cost of avoiding emissions through new nuclear capacity depends on the mix and the costs of the fuels it displaces, and therefore ranges from very low levels to more than $80/tonne.
    Almost 200 reactors (of the 434 operational at the end of 2013) are expected to be retired in the period to 2040, with the vast majority in Europe, the USA, Russia and Japan; the challenge to replace the shortfall in generation is "especially acute" in Europe, the WEO said.
    "Utilities need to start planning either to develop alternative capacity or to continue operating existing plants years in advance of nuclear plants reaching the end of their current licence periods. To facilitate this process, governments need to provide clarity on their approach to licence extensions and details of the regulatory steps involved well ahead of possible plant closures," it said.
    The IEA estimates the cost of decommissioning nuclear plants that are retired in the period to 2040 at more than $100 billion.
    Challenges

    Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said at a press briefing in London to unveil WEO 2014 that, worldwide, there are about 76 GWe of new nuclear power capacity under construction.
    "Many countries today say that nuclear power is very important for energy security and an important way of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, but policies are changing. In Europe we see a significant decline in nuclear capacity. This is the result of retirements due to age, but some of them are the result of government policy, such as in Germany and Belgium. In Japan, we expect a rebound, but nuclear will not be a main source of electricity generation there," Birol said.
    "In the United States there is about 6 GWe of nuclear capacity under construction, especially in those areas where electricity prices are regulated. There is a strong push in Russia, we don't think as much as the government [target], but we expect an increase there, as well as in India."
    The main contribution to nuclear power worldwide is coming from China.
    "China is responsible for almost 50% of the growth in nuclear capacity additions. This is mainly the result of China's government policy, the structure of the market and also the fight against environmental issues and energy efficiency concerns. China is developing its own technology and may well compete with many OECD countries in terms of exporting nuclear technology in the years to come. So, China may well appear as a major player in the global energy industry," he said.
    Today 80% of nuclear power plants in the world are in OECD countries and around 20% in non-OECD countries. In 2040, that split will be 50-50, he said.
    Nuclear power can play an important role for energy security, for climate change and the development of energy systems, but there are some public concerns, "which need to be heard and addressed by governments". Birol highlighted two issues.
    "According to current trends, in the next 25 years there will be about 200 reactors that are going to be retired. Decommissioning of those power plants is a major challenge for all of us – for the countries that are pursuing nuclear power policies and for those who want to phase out their nuclear power plants. Worldwide, we do not have much experience and I am afraid we are not well-prepared in terms of policies and funds which are devoted to decommissioning. A major concern for all of us is how we are going to deal with this massive surge in retirements in nuclear power plants," he said.
    Another concern is nuclear waste. The amount of used nuclear fuel currently stands at 350,000 tonnes but will increase to 705,000 tonnes in 2040, according to the report.
    "We have had nuclear power plants for 60 years, but we don’t yet have a permanent solution to high level nuclear waste. There are some temporary solutions, but how we are going to dispose of high level nuclear waste is a key issue that remains to be addressed," Birol said.
    Climate policy

    According to IEA estimates, last year CO2 emissions increased by 2.6%, reaching a worldwide record high of 33 gigatonnes. About 60% of those emissions came from China alone. There have been some good developments, Birol said, namely the "very welcome and timely" emissions reduction agreement announced yesterday by China and the USA.
    Their joint commitment represents "a giant leap for mankind" for two reasons, he said. Firstly, these two countries are responsible for 45% of global CO2 emissions. Secondly, “on the road to” the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris next year, their decision "injects very badly needed political momentum."
    "We should not forget that the European Union already made a commitment of reducing its emissions by 40% in 2030. So, if these efforts of the US, China and the European Union materialize and if we see other countries that have not yet committed themselves follow the same pattern, then we may well see that we use our last chance in Paris in the best way possible."
    But an enduring concern, he added, is the "huge subsidies" that fossil fuels enjoy worldwide.
    "There were about $550 billion in incentives last year to coal, oil and gas consumption, which means I am paying you to pollute the world; I am paying you to use energy in an inefficient way. These fossil fuel subsidies are about four times the subsidies which are given to renewable energies."
    "One other piece of good news" is energy efficiency. "We are seeing the impact of energy efficiency policies on numbers and trends. We see a slowing down of, for example, oil demand growth is the result of energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector."
    "But is the global energy system going to be driven by the policies governments put together to bring us to a more sustainable future, or is it going to be driven by events?"
    There are "three major players" in the global energy picture - the OECD countries, China and the rest of world.
    "Between 2000 and today, global energy demand has increased by 30% and about 50% of that growth came from one country, which is China. This put a lot of pressure on many energy and climate issues, but the picture is changing. Energy demand from OECD countries we expect will be more or less flat, mainly driven by efficiency policies pulling it down, the slowing down of the economy and so on," he said.

    "The surprise, at least for us, is China. Chinese energy demand growth is slowing down and in the 2020s we think this slowdown will be much more pronounced. There are three reasons why Chinese energy demand will slow down. One, China takes energy efficiency much more seriously than many other countries. Second, economic growth slows down and changes in nature from being energy intensive. And third, population growth in China slows down and then starts to decline."
    "China has been the engine of global energy demand in the last decade, but 'the rest of the world' – India and eastern Asia is taking the lead."
    In order to have world similar to the one we have today, the climate's temperature should be 2 degrees Celsius, according to the WEO.
    "In the last 110 years we have already used 50% of the budget to put CO2 into the atmosphere. If there are no major changes in our policies, we are going to completely consume that budget as of 2040. If we don’t change in terms of energy investments we are soon going to use the budget given to by nature and that will result in a different world," Birol said.
    "Emissions in 2040 will be made by the power plants which are built today. Low carbon investments today amount to $400 billion. In our central case it is going to double. In order to see a 2 degrees world, we need more renewables, more efficiency, more nuclear power and more carbon capture and storage." In order to reach this 2 degree "trajectory", low-carbon investment needs to increase four times compared with today.
    Paris-based IEA is an autonomous organization which "works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond". Founded in response to the 1973-4 oil crisis, the IEA's initial role was to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks.
    Researched and written
    by World Nuclear News
     
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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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  38. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!




    FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE VS PRICE ACTION!


    Each excellent thing, once learned, serves for a measure of all other knowledge.

    Phillip Sidney.




    It has been some time since I posted anything significant. The reason is simple. There was literally nothing to post. Sometimes the results speak for themselves and there is little to say. Oil prices have dropped significantly in the past few months, and so have gold prices. I have been waiting patiently for a turn around and earlier in the year the trend was clear. Several times gold hit the significant support areas of 1150 after having penetrated and broken through the major support area of 1180. On almost all occasions it has bounced back from this region to retest the sub 1200 area and rested there. For traders this has been an exciting time while for investors it is perhaps a more difficult time. Traders really do not care if the price is going up or down, they trade both ways but investors bank on the price going only in one direction-up. Finding the bottom is the equivalent of finding the pot at the end of the rainbow and as elusive. Those that look for the pot of gold tend to be a tad disappointed when they do not pick it up at the bottom.

    There is no reason to pick it at the bottom, a true investor will wait for a turn around, confirm it and then slowly begin to average in. Ideally one should be busy picking up excellent gold stocks now, slowly adding selective stocks will add value to the portfolio and in many cases dividends. This will build up to a significant sum of money in the longer run and these events do not happen often. We are at a unique period where the last one occurred some five years ago during the 2008/2009 stock and commodities vomit. Those who did have the cash and were courageous enough to stand against the tide and made tidy sums of profit if they were sane enough to sell at the high points when they saw the tide turn.

    It is an interesting pivot point area currently for several major commodities. Gold, Oil and Uranium all three among others have suffered the sentiment of the investor and the wrath of the crowd. Recent unusual volume of share trading in the junior gold index may indicate there is an imminent change coming; either we are about to see a significant jump or a leap off the cliff in gold. (Written prior to gold jump) One should keep a strong hand on the money box and wait to see which direction we move in. I am not here to predict prices, I leave that to the gurus that abound the internet. All I can interpret from the above is that we are either about to go in for the last leap down or we could see a significant shift upwards in prices. Its a good idea to keep an eye on the price action of the gold junior stocks index to take cue as often this will precede the price of gold.

    Uranium stocks rallied for a small period before slumbering again. We will see when they will attempt to reach past lows or regain their momentum in a month or so. January plays a significant role in providing indication as to which direction the stocks markets will take for the rest of the year. If January is a positive month there is a greater probability of the rest of the year going good. Statistically January provides a good indication how the year is going to go. Focus on the leader CCJ/CCO.TO to provide indication as to if we are moving up or down. Right now we are moving back down and below the 20 day SMA.

    Its coming to the end of the year and Uranium stock despite rallying 30% have given up most of their gains. Gold has been beaten down by the bears and I hope that many took my advice and remained on the side lines. There will be a time to come back into the game but now is not that moment. Markets have risen in general and despite calls for the markets to move down or correct, my experience tells me that the market will move generally in the direction it is going in for a lot longer than expected to. We can possibly see a turn around in January or a correction in March and April.

    I have stopped reading the news. Eccentric as it may sound there is sound reason in the madness. First of all guess where we stand in the pyramid of those who read the news; usually the last or second last ones, secondly does anyone believe in fundamentals these days? Banks and finance houses spend millions, possibly hundreds of millions of dollars in man power hours, software development, and algorithm designs for various instruments to be traded, including stocks, gold and other commodities. Every time a retail trader such as you and I buys or sells a stock or a gold future or buys a currency, on the other side is a cold machine that is buying and selling thousands of times a day. Trillions of dollars worth of currencies are traded every single day and without these machines it would be an impossible task to complete. How can you compete ont hat using fundamentals?

    Even the banks themselves have no idea how much is traded and rely on the figures calculated to show that they are in profit. The most profitable items that banksters purchase is debt. Debt is highly profitable when done correctly and big banks pay a lot of money to purchase debtors. This allows them to continuously make profits. Once in a while they do make mistakes as many did in 2008. Sometimes purchases are made where the majority of debtors will never be able to pay and for a bank this is a seriously bad deal within a limited period banks will sell the debtors to someone else… http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/15/magazine/bad-paper-debt-collector.html?_r=0 this is the story of one such retailer. Banks however work at different levels, debts can be as small as a credit card bills like in Aarons case or it could be the debt owned by a country and purchased by wall street giants. It is these debts that eventually lead to catastrophe for some. Margin calls etc are also forms of debts, People trade and have to pay up within limited times, that too is a debt. Our world has learnt to purchase today but pay next month. We call it credit. Credit when used responsibly can be useful, credit used irresponsibly and we have people who will profit from it. Never ever let your credit card payments run into interest, someone out there is willing to buy your debt and collect.

    There are few that keep in mind despite being reminded time and time again, that there are hundreds of cycles within cycles each being played by different players. The smallest cycles play all across the larger cycles but they are invisible to the macro players where for each trade that a macro player may make hundreds of micro plays occur. Imagine pendulums swinging one behind another the one nearest is the largest and takes 30 seconds to swing in one direction but the one behind it takes 15 seconds and the one behind that takes 7.5 seconds etc. While the nearest reaches one end the one behind has swung twice and the one behind it four times etc. The problems is that our focus is taken from the largest pendulum and we often deviate and focus on the smaller ones as they swing more often. This lack of focus on the bigger picture and preference to see where the smaller picture is swinging kills us. For some reason we panic especially when a smaller pendulum breaks down, we than let this affect our decision on the larger pendulum. This eventually changes our mind and we make the wrong decision. Fundamental decisions sometimes take years to come to fruition. We humans are not known for our patience. Our priorities constantly change. We loose focus and therefore before one even begins to trade rather than learning how to trade, learn who you are and where you stand. Are you a fundamental investor, a swing trader, a day trader, a trend trader. Know yourself because this is key to where you are comfortable trading. Most people cannot understand why things happen as they do. They fail to understand that markets move on emotions and in the short and medium term have nothing to do with fundamentals. These do not change in short periods. They take years to change. Therefore many are right but are unable to profit from their knowledge as they are unable to simply stand there and wait for the results to come on decisions taken years ago. These sort of trades require some serious extra cash left hanging out there. Most of us can ill afford to do so and further to that our objective was probably never that long. The exception being solid gold buyers. Asides from them most stock or share buyers must realise by now that stocks almost never run on fundamental decisions. If they do they take a very long time to move up or down. Stocks need to be traded because they are being run by humans and where there are humans there is eventually greed so take the profits when you can never leave it sitting on the table when the cards turn against you. Hope and faith in your own unique ability to call a turn will be your folly. There will be times to get into a market but know what indications to allow you to exit too. Failure to do so will only mean depletion of your deposit and nothing else. Right now as I write this stocks are at near all time lows. PAAS was at 9.75 in 2003 and its back to the same position what is the point of having held the stock this long only to return to …0? One cannot hold stocks for the longer term in current times. The newcomers just do not seem to get it. The players have changed. The news is no longer a factor in the movements nor does information flow fairly, nor does it affect the market in the manner one thinks.

    Take for example the NFP that just occurred. Great news, NFP are excellent, the dollar should be rising in a big way, Gold should have dropped much more significantly, The indexes should have risen more significantly this Monday but…..they did not. In fact there was little or no reaction. At least not an unusual reaction that should have been expected based on the report. Those that anticipated would be getting losses, those that looked only at the price action and direction would have stayed out of the markets as they noticed the lack of anticipated direction. That in itself is a clue as to the possibility of a reversal occurring. Currently the S&P is in a downturn or correction.

    Stop losses; We get advocated two schools of thought on this; either place tight stop losses i.e cut your losses or …don’t place stop losses. Both are right and both are wrong. The truth is there is no right or wrong. In my experience it really depends as to where your entry is from. Technically getting in “what one presumes is the bottom or the top on a daily chart a tighter stop loss can be placed. However you are going to possibly get hit several times before you actually do not get stopped out as there are many players out there and they know statistically where the average retailer will place their stops and I assure you like fish in a net you will get pulled out. The other side of the coin are the advocates of not placing stop losses and using the hedging method, while this is a good method it also requires a considerable reduction of risk and exposure in the event that a hedge is required, ideally cutting ones position down to 20% or even less allowing one to use the remainder to either average down their initial price entry and/or use the remainder to hedge a loosing position. This is a good method too but as I stated one will take longer to make a profit. Both methods require rigid rules in place to work well. Hedging is what the professionals and well-experienced people will use. Despite the method one uses, the rigidity in the rules is required to make money in these markets and very few people are able to make money in the longer term markets without having a massive amount in their deposits.


    We all know the fundamentals of Uranium, we are all aware that prices have dropped, and risen in the recent past however we require the crowd sentiment to turn positive in order to profit from the price. In the process we will loose a little money. At present we see a drop in the spot price and despite this not affecting those companies that have a majority of contracts the spot price does reflect the stock price of even large companies such as Cameco. Wait for the price to drop in December to lows of 15.50-14.50 if possible and pick up some of this stock if you can and if you believe in the fundamentals but at the same time pick a price under which you feel your investment is under threat and should be willing to sell OR trade with small amounts and average in for a price average reduction, but be prepared to hedge if it drops below certain levels. OR;

    If the price does begin to move up buy in not on the way down but when it does make a turn, in this way you will have got in to the near bottom. Average up if there is a consistent move up. Remember if the leader of the group does not move up than it is not a crowd movement and can revert back to a bearish situation. Move with the leaders rather than the followers. The leader is Cameco its costs are less than 20 dollars per pound and it has the majority contracts with the larger players in the markets if the big players are staying away so should you. The price is all you need to know. There is one thing that many will have forgotten in that Uranium is correlated with oil and the last time oil prices rose so did Uranium and as oil price drops so does uranium. The relation is simple since oil prices relate to energy consumption there is a lull in the demand as there is a gap between retail demand and industrial consumption, it takes a while for these to be factored in where retail demand takes up the slack. We are in the that vacuum at present while industrial demand falls so does the consumption of electricity and thus the demand to produce electricity also reduces thereby reducing consumption. Therefore the demand for uranium also drops a little; factor in the drop in markets which is another factor that reflects in the price too. Do you see why all this is so confusing and totally irrelevant when all we need to do is look at the price;

    • Is the trend UP or DOWN on the daily chart?
    • Is the price above or below the 20 day EMA?
    • Is the next bar green or red and that shows the time to get in.
    • What is your exit strategy?

    Keep it simple and simply stop considering the fundamentals and the news. Its all quite useless and will never allow one to make a clear decision. The price has already factored in all the news out there and therefore look at the price and TRADE.

    Gold has set its own pace and defies logic at present with even market sentiment being contradicted with better than usual NFP reports actually DID NOT make gold drop further from here but we need to give it time before we notice the direction it is taking. Right now it appears to be range bound between 1235.00 and 1185.00 It needs to break out of this range to provide long term traders to get in.Short term traders are currently having a great time trading within this range.

    If Uranium stock Cameco does hit PREVIOUS low and DOES NOT BOUNCE IMMEDIATELY we are in for a serious bargain stock with dividends to add. The current run down is due to the accident in Ukraine, it was an electrical fault and for safety the power station was shut down. They should be up and running again by Friday. It’s a blue chip of Uranium. Eventually it will find its level so take it at 14.50, 13.50, even 12.50. The larger circle of movement shows that fundamentals are well in place, but the smaller circles or waves of sentiment are creating opportunities for a longer term trade in this stock. Consider it as a longer term trade that may pay out in 3 to 5 years but during this period learn to trade it taking profits and not letting the price become a fixture in your mind simply the wave of ups and down. For now stop looking at the fundamentals of this stock, they are in profit, their mines are running. Cameco is currently at 16.58 on the US markets.


    The S&P can be deceptive it has risen a fair amount into uncharted territory. Remember it is crowd sentiment that dictates price and not the information of companies or their profits or losses. The S&P may see some correction from around here but this does not mean that its unusual trend is done as yet. The primary trend remains intact until we see it break below previous support confirming a major down trend, this is highly unlikely at present. No one can predict if this is going to occur so I will only say that upon correction remain in the direction of the primary trend. For now those that have been in this trend should consider taking profits as a short term downward trend may take place or is already taking place. When it reverses get back in and keep your money safe. A break below 2030 may indicate a longer term turn around in trend if it is gentle, the angle of descent is acute and ferocious I assure you that the bulls will get in around this price area of support or slightly higher/lower.

    I take you leave for now the wind has chilled my bones and I am in need of something stronger than coffee. I fear I may have lost a dear friend and fellow reader in the past days. I have not seen him around for some time. I think I will have a single malt in his honour. To good friends….


    SAGI:cool1::beerglass:
     
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  39. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Gold and silver stocks have taken a serious dive in the last week. We are getting to the point where those looking for bargains will be coming into the market either at the end of the year or beginning of the new one. Expect a quick rise followed by a decline if this decline does not reach or breach previous lows expect it to meander for a little while and then begin to climb. Please invest in good quality stocks preferably producers and not simply those with large deposits. ABX looks to be a good bet as is GG and NEM in silver consider SSRI and PAAS.

    Uranium stocks have dropped once more and this is the time to get in onto CCJ/ CCO.TO focus on this leader. If cameco cannot climb neither will the smaller ones.

    SAGI
     
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    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Nuclear Poised to Be Winner as Abe Eyes Broader Japan Majority
    By Chisaki Watanabe and Masumi Suga December 09, 2014


    Workers wearing protective suits and masks work in front of storage tanks for radioactive water under construction in the J-1 area at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan, on March 10, 2014. Uranium dropped as much as 62 percent after the meltdown at the nuclear plant in March 2011 and subsequent closing of Japan’s atomic fleet. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Pool via Bloomberg
    Nuclear energy is likely be one of the big winners as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks set to return to power after elections on Dec. 14.

    A broader mandate for Abe, who’s framed the snap election as a referendum on his economic policies, would embolden the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to push ahead with restarting some of the nation’s 48 idled nuclear reactors. Abe’s LDP may expand its majority in Japan’s lower house, according to opinion polls released by five newspapers on Dec. 4.

    “Abe can take up drastic policies once this election is over,” said Shigeaki Koga, a former trade ministry official who writes about energy and policy issues. “He will push through policies to promote nuclear power including restarting many of the reactors next year.”


    Nuclear power, which accounted for almost a third of Japan’s electricity generation before the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, has been identified by Abe and the LDP as an important source of “baseload power.” Even after the public outcry following Fukushima, Abe has insisted nuclear will continue to play a role in Japan’s energy mix.

    Abe’s LDP returned to power two years ago in a landslide victory by ousting the Democratic Party of Japan, which had pushed for the introduction of an incentive program for clean energy and phasing out nuclear.

    Since then, Abe’s government has moved to restart some of the nuclear reactors once their safety is confirmed. As yet, none of the reactors are back online though utilities have applied with Japan’s new regulator for safety checks on 20 reactors, a precursor to restarts.


    While the government released a set of energy policies in April, it has yet to decide how much electricity should come from what energy sources.

    The incentive program for clean energy that was ultimately brought in by the previous government may come under a more thorough review after the election, said Takashi Hongo, a senior fellow at the Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute in Tokyo.

    The feed-in tariffs provided under the current design are too generous, Hongo said.

    Meanwhile, parties are split over the role of nuclear. The Democrats are sticking to their campaign promise two years ago of phasing out nuclear. The New Komeito, the LDP’s much smaller coalition partner, says its eventual aim is a nuclear-free society.

    “It’s the current government’s energy policy to keep things vague,” said Hiroshi Takahashi, a research fellow at the Fujitsu Research Institute. “The party wants to keep nuclear power in the mid- and long-term but they know saying that aloud will upset voters.”

    In reality, Abe’s government may be planning to add new nuclear reactors to replace ones too old to restart, Koga, the former trade ministry official, said.

    A poll conducted last month by public broadcaster NHK shows 40 percent of respondents oppose nuclear restarts, surpassing 24 percent of those who say they support them.

    Regardless, backers of nuclear energy point to its economic imperative as justification for reintroducing it in Japan.

    Since Japan flicked off the switch to its nuclear energy program, expensive energy imports, particularly of liquefied natural gas, have worsened trade deficits. Japan has run a trade deficit for 28 straight months.

    The Japanese government estimates Japan’s regional power companies paid 3.6 trillion yen ($29.6 billion) more in fuel costs in fiscal 2013 compared with fiscal 2010 before the Fukushima disaster.


    As a result of the high cost of imported fuel, Japan’s current account registered a 367.9 billion yen monthly deficit in June, placing an extra burden on an economy that has contracted for two straight quarters after a sales tax increase in April.

    In view of those numbers, some of Japan’s largest companies say nuclear energy is critical to their operations.

    “How much longer do we need to endure?” a group of energy-intensive industries asked in a petition submitted to government ministers earlier this year. “We need to know the path for survival.”

    Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. and Kobe Steel Ltd. are among the member companies belonging to the 11 industry groups that were signatories to the petition.

    Climate Targets

    The absence of nuclear has also set back the nation’s climate goals. Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions have been on the rise since 2010 as thermal power generation increased to make up for lost nuclear capacity and the economy recovered after the 2008 financial crisis. Greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.6 percent in fiscal 2013 compared with the previous year and are 8.5 percent higher than the year before Fukushima, according to preliminary data by the Ministry of the Environment released on Dec. 4.

    That’s bad news as climate envoys from more than 190 countries gather in Lima, Peru to debate a framework to keep the earth’s temperature from rising. Countries are to submit plans on their contributions to climate change in the first quarter of 2015, if possible, toward a universal agreement.

    “We say we need to keep nuclear for economic and energy security reasons, and also to fight climate change,” said Masami Hasegawa, a senior manager for the environmental policy bureau at Keidanren, Japan’s largest business lobby.

    Japan will restart 25 of the 48 reactors by 2018, according to projections by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The gap left by nuclear’s absence will be filled mainly by firing liquefied natural gas, said Yoko Nobuoka, an analyst for BNEF in Tokyo.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Chisaki Watanabe in Tokyo at cwatanabe5@bloomberg.net; Masumi Suga in Tokyo at msuga@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net Iain Wilson, Abhay Singh
     
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