1. Markets swoon moving into Monday open, Metals catch a nice bid
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  2. Good Monday Morning! Gold is up 8.8 to 1257, while Silver is up 18 to 1793. Crude is falling 40 to 4757. The USD is down 50 to 9893.
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  3. Week of 3/25/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1248.50-- UP 18.30 Silver $17.75-- UP 34 Oil $47.97-- DOWN 134 TICS USD $99.42 -- DOWN 66 tics

URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by SAGI, May 1, 2013.



  1. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Remember the talk about circles within circles here are four charts of gold 4H, Daily, weekly and Monthly.
    Notice the amazing thing about the monthly chart, its EMA (15 and 34) never once crossed under since 2001 until 10/2013. What does that tell you?

    The bigger picture?

    SAGI
     

    Attached Files:

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  2. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Calls betting Cameco will break out
    optionMONSTER By Mike Yamamoto (mike.yamamoto@optionmonster.com)
    March 5, 2015 6:47 AM
    

    Related Quotes
    CCJ
    13.80
    -1.15%
    Cameco Corporation Watchlist
    13.80-0.16(-1.15%)
    NYSE4:04 PM EDT

    Calls betting Cameco will break out optionMONSTER 6 days ago
    4 Stocks Spiking on Unusual Volume: Cameco, Mobile Mini and More TheStreet q 1 mth 0 days ago
    More
    Traders are betting that Cameco will break out of its recent range.

    optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker system shows that 2,800 September 20 calls were bought mostly for $0.35 at the same time yesterday. This is clearly a new position, as open interest in the strike was a mere 97 contracts before the trade occurred.

    These long calls lock in the price where the stock can be purchased through mid-September no matter how far it might climb. They could be sold earlier at a profit if premiums rise with a rally before then, providing potentially significant leverage, but the contracts will expire worthless if shares remain below $20. (See our Education section)

    CCJ was up 0.73 percent yesterday to close at $15.10. The uranium producer fell sharply after hitting resistance just below $20 last November and is now in the middle of a range that has been in place for 2015.

    Yesterday's total option volume in CCJ was more than triple its daily average for the last month. Overall calls outpaced puts by more than 3 to 1.
     
  3. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    STOCK ALERT: CCJ/CCO.TO

    Cameco dropped down in price to the previous support area of 13.80 and bounced back to above 14.00 dollars. Currently at 14.87. At this point It appears as if it is consolidating and buying is recommended after the trend sets in. If one factors a small risk into purchasing and purchases around this price or on a slight drop with a stop loss at 13.00 as the support area it would not be bad idea. Spot price has risen a little for Uranium to USD 39.00.

    SAGI
     
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  4. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Japan retires more reactors as restarts approach
    18 March 2015
    More clarity on Japan's nuclear future came today as the first unit slated for restart gained technical approval, while two further older reactors were announced for retirement rather than being put through the restart process.
    The older units officially declared for decommissioning are Shimane 1, owned by Chugoku Electric Power Company, and Genkai 1, owned by Kyushu Electric Power Company. These smaller units, of 439 MWe and 529 MWe respectively, started operation in the mid-1970s and enter retirement just one day after the same status was announced for three others of similar age - Tsuruga 1, along with Mihama 1 and 2.
    The changes mean Japan now has a count of 43 operable nuclear power reactors and a total capacity of 40470 MWe, down from 54 units and 47,122 MWe before the 2011 accident at Fukushima Daiichi. All of the remaining reactors, however, will remain offline until they have been upgraded to meet extended safety requirements, such such as the provision of alternative power supplies, multiple sources of cooling water, back-up control rooms and venting to prevent hydrogen escape.
    The leading unit in this process is Kyushu's Sendai 1, which today gained the Nuclear Regulation Authority's (NRA's) approval for its 'construction plan'. This means the 846 MWe reactor unit is technically ready for restart, having been upgraded, and that these engineering changes have been verified by the regulator. It also means that Kyushu's management, personnel training and operational methods are in line with the NRA's demands.
    Sendai 2 as well as Kansai Electric Power Company's Takahama 3 and 4 are at the earlier stage, having made their upgrades, but awaiting the NRA's confirmation of the work.
    Another 15 reactors are moving through the restart process, which has been prioritised to bring on the most-needed reactors first, in the localities and prefectures more supportive of restart. Publicly demonstrating the competency of both the power companies, the NRA and the process is an important factor in establishing public confidence in Japan's nuclear power safety culture.
    Researched and written
    by World Nuclear News
     
  5. Heads_Up

    Heads_Up Seeker Seeker

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    Haven't been around in a long while, first thing back was to catch up on this thread. As always a good read.

    My retirement home/cabin is pretty well done and plans for my retiring are in place with a timeline so I will be visiting here a lot more regularily now.

    As with all things, everything isn't my cup of tea but I like what I like.
    :emotions16:
     
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  6. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Welcome back Heads up!

    In reference to tea; some like Earl Grey, others prefer Darjeeling and well I prefer the Kenyan one LOL Its all good tea just different tastes. There are never all rights and that is why I think this thread as well as many others on this site make great reads. We all contribute our experiences and this I believe helps us all. Please feel welcome to write articles and post here when you have time it would be great to read up on other individual members experiences and interesting stories. They say that everyone has at least one story within them. I would be grateful if more people will contribute their stories.

    Kindest Regards

    SAGI
     
  7. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Every April with the exception of last year I shut down the thread and begin a new one. Last year readers preferred not to let this thread shut down. This year once more I am asking readers if we should shut down this thread and begin with U&AE 5. Please post your view points. I usually shut it down to allow new readers as well as old readers to have shorter threads for past references if they wish to without going through tons of posts. (Not that there are that many posts on this thread LOL) Never the less please make your views here so we have clarity on your preference.

    Thanks

    SAGI
     
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  8. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Sagi

    Thanks for asking. Really doesn't matter to me. I enjoy it and will continue to read it no matter. Enjoy your day.

    Search
     
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  9. davycoppitt

    davycoppitt Seeker Seeker

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    Same as above. Either way for me.
     
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  10. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  11. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    STOCK ALERT: UWTI & CCJ (CCO.TO)

    UWTI which is a triple bull oil stock appears to be breaking out of a long decline. Readers are alerted to this as the price of oil begins to climb. A break above and closing above 2.50 per share will indicate that UWTI is on a positive trend moving up. Major resistance is at US$ 4.00. A break above this area will increase the chances of longer periods of positive movements.

    CCJ (CCO.TO) Cameco. the Uranium company has begun to climb. The resistance level is at current price. A break above USD 16.25 will indicate that it is in a positive incline and trend has changed. A longer term trend will set when it is above 17.00 Resistance Levels are 15.50, 16.25, 16.50. 16.75 17.00, 19.80 These are the points where reversal can occur.

    SAGI
     
  12. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!


    THE BEST INVESTMENTS OF YOUR LIFE!


    Good Friday Easter Monday Special.



    Good morning! The temperature in London has risen and that has allowed me to be little bit more active in the last few weeks. I thought this morning we would talk about something a tad different than we have in the past few weeks. I believe that everyone should think about the future and about your family but most importantly about yourself. In the entire environment around you there is no other single entity more important then yourself. You are like a nucleus with protons neutrons rotating around you, almost like a sun surrounded by planets and despite all these planets having individual lives it is the sun that provides the source of energy for them to live. Who says that the sun does not have its own path while the planets have theirs? Its therefore vital that you make the most important investment of your life for your own well being. Just as the sun loosing its energy would lead to the planets surrounding it dying out, so would the well being of those around you diminish as your health fails. Above all you need to be selfish to do good. Many of us ignore our own health in order to strive for the well being of the family and in the end loose it all. Thats enough about all this now for the main topic.

    These are the best investments that you can make of your life. They are far more important than any other investments you will ever make. Heed them well!

    Make sure you eat well- Eating well, means a lot of different things to a lot of different people. In this case, eat the freshest food possible, eat fresh vegetables and fruits, where possible avoid meat especially red meat. Ever heard the phrase; “We are what we eat? “ Here is the thing, remember the article about the universe and that every particle that joins us or is ingested by us has a memory of its experience and every particle that leaves us also has a memory. Well guess what kind of experience living things have had before they got ingested by you? Negative vibes affect us, but its so subtle or we are so insensitive that we do not realise that its affecting us.


    Exercise- Our bodies do not require instructions, they experience it and react; Much the same way that the entire planet does. If the body finds parts that are not being utilised it reduces supply to these parts and diverts vital nutrients and vitamins away from such parts and provides them to other parts otherwise it all goes to storage and like oil it has a finite level. It will continue to provide the minimal required but until demanded it will reduce it. That means those parts that are no longer being used will diminish further, the brain or central system will manage the inflow and outflow in the best possible and most efficient way that suits your particular body. By exercising the brain and the physical body we are telling our EMS or engine management system that we need these parts and they need to be efficient. Do it every day. Exercise not only your body but also your brain. Tease it and build up those muscles both physical and mental.


    Meditate: The brain as mentioned above needs exercise too and part of this is to focus the brain. Leave it too long and it will be mush. Focus it and tell it who its master is. You can either let a computer run by it self or you can instruct it what to do. Its more productive when it is instructed what to do. So don’t let it run wild. Get organised, have a plan and focus.


    Prayers are vital: they are for the spiritual development of the essence of the body. The soul if you please, or what ever power is within you that drives you. Its not about just praying once a day, its about keeping a part of god in oneself. Just as you keep a picture of a loved one close to your heart its important to keep the spirit in your heart. Find a way to do that and you are a step closer to god or the universe. Do good deeds, do charitable work. It does not require money, if you are unable to provide financial benefit, then provide skills, labour or simply volunteer someplace and help others.

    The above are some of the best investments you will ever make in your life. The are literally worth your life or the loss of it, they are about your self respect.

    Nothing matters if you do not have your health. Nothing matters if you have diminished brain capacity. Nothing matters if you have no spiritual health and nothing matters if you have no self respect.

    Money itself is of no consequence. We are simply under an illusion that it is the route to happiness. I assure you it is not. It is simply one ingredient among many that will allow you to find the path to happiness. Happiness is found within oneself.

    The truth is nothing external can make you happy and provide peace. That is a power you have within yourself. You simply do not use it as you pursue external ingredients to find that peace that you crave for. Look within rather than without. Emotions within any context usually provide avenues for wrong decisions. Some of us can control emotions better than others but the truth is none of us can avoid emotions because they are part of our nature. Therefore we need to train ourselves to put emotions aside when we actually trade. We put our emotions aside when we go to work. We may not get along with work mates or perhaps get along too well with them, either way we learn to restrain our emotions at work and we must do the same here as this is also work.

    If the mind is unhealthy or imbalanced or influenced by external forces such as family disruptions, decisions made during such periods will often be incorrect. It therefore makes sense to stop what ever action you are going to take and make efforts to refocus by removing such influences or dealing with external forces. Family influences can more often be dealt with by simply conforming to these ebbs and flows which are bound to happen and are unavoidable. However more important is to turn such ebbs and flows to enhance ones rhythms.Rather than fighting such forces it may be more advantageous to harness such forces to aid you in your work. One requires to take long breaks from trading once in a while to allow clarity to return. Remember the markets will always be there but family may not.

    Think of the family as an investment. Consider them as part peripherals of the same entity and not a separate one. The head may be important but is quite handicapped without the use of arms, legs, hands, eyes etc. All of these make up part of the same entity and all play key roles in enabling one to make decisions that are conducive to the entire entity. In the same way co-ordination and harmony as a family working as a team is also conducive to trading and accept that they too have their needs and their place. Arms hurt, legs hurt, they all need massaging and in the same way so does the family and one requires to be sensitive to these needs and maintain them. If you already do that then you are half way there to having made good investments in your life.

    The most important investments in your life are not the money you make but the family and health you gain. Family will love you unconditionally in the majority of circumstances. Be sensitive to their needs and be patient with other members and respect their needs. Their strength is also your strength. If there is harmony within the family one will see their investments also change accordingly. Disharmony in the family leads often to disharmony in your trades.


    Uranium despite being on the down side has seen Cameco beginning to show some signs of life with a move back from 13.80 (Apprx) to around 15.18. Cameco fundamentally remains sound and continues to hold long term contracts. We may continue to see retesting of the 13.80 region but as long as it remains above the yearly lows, we have to assume that this is the bottom. Cigar lake and Mc Arthur continue to produce and in next year production may be boosted further. Uranium will continue to move near current levels until there are some changes by increase of nuclear power stations significantly. The current lower prices in oil and gas aid in restricting or delaying the startups in Japan, as the cost of imports has gone down. However time will tell if prices for oil will begin to move up. If these do then Japan may accelerate the process of starting up Nuclear power station. This is not a given. it is mere speculation. Stocks will tend to remain consolidating recent lows, whereupon we could observe one of three events taking place. Either the price will continue to rise in its present weak trend in anticipation of rising demand for uranium, or prices may consolidate between a range or we could see a major drop from here being the death throes of Uranium stocks. If prices drop any further it is unlikely that the majority of exploration companies will be able to survive for more than two years.

    This in turn may lead to a rising of the phoenix from the ashes and hopefully at the top will be Cameco. Still sectors int he past have been completely destroyed. Rail was at its hight in the early part of the 20th century but eventually replaced by the vehicle sector. If this were not to occur there would be a major upset in the uranium setup. it is entirely possible that new inventions will see the uranium sector becoming redundant, however unlikely it appears for now. It is possible that we will see government intervention.

    Cameco is currently going through a major back due to two tax issue court cases and will have to face its day in court. This may be weighing in on its price drop and can cause a major upset for it. There is the additional issue of uranium price to consider too.
    http://www.fool.ca/2015/02/19/will-cameco-corporation-go-bankrupt/ Traders will continue to place shorts on the stock as long as there is this issue hanging over its head. Despite the issues the fundamentals continue to entice investors as the basic demand requirement of Uranium remains on the horizon.

    Gold continues to meander and remains rage bound. Short term traders are likely to make a killing if they can recognise the pattern trend. Long term investors would be advised to wait for the support areas as previous of 1150, 1135-1125, 1100, 1078. I do not expect gold to reach some of the lower figures, but then again I did not expect to see Cameco ever hit 13.60 either. In conclusion anything can happen. Markets are not controlled by rational or fundamentals but sentiment which is governed by emotions and desires.

    Gold’s fundamentals are strong but sentiment controls the price and therefore it makes sound sense to take advantage of sentiment and make decisions based on strong fundamentals. There will be a point when sentiment will change and be in sync with fundamentals and that will be the right time to purchase gold. There is still a possible downside and the potential to be lower int he summer is real, as temporary rises in prices have been capped to date in recent months.


    What many new comers may not understand is that commodities markets and stock markets are linked and it is akin to a kite with a tail; One moves ahead first followed eventually by the other if the move is based on fundamentals. If it is not, then like the kite it will move with the wind dropping a little or rising a little with little difference to the tail behind it. If there is a general fundamental move based on a real increase in purchasing or demand, then inevitably the price of commodities will eventually rise. This can take anywhere from a few months to a couple of years to become obvious. Industrial metals such as Zinc, Copper, Nickel, Iron, and Aluminium will show increase in demand and therefore price may increase if the markets were really in an upward market.

    Stock market indexes are not real movements but sentiment movements in anticipation of real moves ahead by six months to a year. Unfortunately the same goes for the commodities futures markets. These projections have been taken for granted that they are the real moves but they are not. All markets are anticipatory moves. Longer term investors require to get into the bottom of a market to get a real chance of making any money. In six months to nine months (By the end of the year) We will be in a better position to realise if the gold markets are going to move significantly higher. Please refer to the four graphs on a previous posting on the previous page of this thread to get a clearer picture of the actual trend. At present gold remains in a longer term downward trend. Despite short term moves up wards it continues to consolidate between 1150.00 and 1250.00. A break below either will provide a better indication of whether the price has actually made a major turn around or a breakdown.

    This weekend I hope that readers will reflect on their experiences consider the input of their families and spend a peaceful weekend appreciating everything they do as a family.

    Have a wonderful Easter weekend.

    SAGI.:rock:
     
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  13. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Just want to wish everyone a Happy Easter (Passover if Jewish)


    Edit: Sagi.............thought the advice in the first half of Coffee With Carrot Head was great. Hope you don't mind - I shared it here Have A Great Weekend & Happy Easter giving all credit to you (of course.)

    Have a great weekend!
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2015
  14. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dear Sir Searcher,

    I am flattered that you felt one of my articles had such an impact on you and others. I wish that all of us have good health and perhaps in turn add a little wealth.

    Happy Easter and wishing you and all your family & friends a great weekend.

    Kindest Regards

    SAGI
     
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  15. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dear Readers,

    Today is Fat Panther's Birthday. the last time I spoke to FP he was on his way to a hospice after being diagnosed with 4th stage cancer. FP went through a lot of suffering near the end of his life and his one wish wish was to meet me. We spoke on Skype for about an hour and that was the last time I ever heard from him.

    Happy Birthday Fat Panther!

    You are dearly missed here my friend and brother. I am humbly requesting that you all say a prayer for our friend today.

    Thanking you

    SAGI
     
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  16. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    STOCK ALERT: UWTI

    UWTI continued to break past 2.50 as stated earlier and now is above 3.00. Wait for a reversal and support at 2.50 before entering unless it continues to steadily move up resistance is at around 4.00.

    SAGI
     
  17. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Who Has Seen The Wind?


    Who has seen the wind?
    Neither you nor I.
    You see now, it's invisible;
    to the naked eye.

    Who has seen the wind?
    It hides but shows it's there.
    Seek guidance from the sky-
    and watch the clouds pass by.

    Take a look up at the tree tops
    and see the leaves, they flow.
    Look down at the grass blades,
    and watch them as they go.

    Who has seen the wind?
    I feel it on my face.
    It blows around and sometimes;
    leaves a messy trace.

    Who has seen the wind?
    What of it, lies within?
    Who can show that it is there?
    Just look around; it proves it's there.




    Source: http://www.familyfriendpoems.com/poem/didnt-know-i-loved-you#ixzz3WfJxuXNF
    Family Friend Poems
     
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  18. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    Thanks SAGI for uwti.
     
  19. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    You are welcome Scofield. Be watchful break it down and follow your set rules for both entry and exit.

    SAGI
     
  20. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    STOCK ALERT: UWTI

    As stated previously UWTI has corrected to 2.61. Please wait for it to stabilise and begin to move up before going in. Keep an eye on spot OIL prices. UWTI correlates with OIL. If you are considering entering on the confirmation of a trend this has not occurred as yet. If 2.50 does not hold as a support we can see lower prices.

    SAGI
     
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  21. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  22. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    U.S. Shale Oil Boom Turns to Gloom
    Bloomberg By Lynn Doan
    4 hours ago
    

    The shale oil boom that pushed U.S. crude production to the highest level in four decades is grinding to a halt.

    Output from the prolific tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken shale will decline 57,000 barrels a day in May, the Energy Information Administration said Monday. It’s the first time the agency has forecast a drop in output since it began issuing a monthly drilling productivity report in 2013.

    Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and IHS Inc. have projected that U.S. oil production growth will end, at least temporarily, with futures near a six-year low. The plunge in prices has already forced half the country’s drilling rigs offline and wiped out thousands of jobs. The retreat in America’s oil boom is necessary to correct a supply glut and rebalance global oil markets, according to Goldman.

    More from Bloomberg.com: Johnson & Johnson Profit Tops Estimates as Drug Sales Rise

    “We’re going off an inevitable cliff” because of the shrinking rig counts, Carl Larry, head of oil and gas for Frost & Sullivan LP, said by phone from Houston on Monday. “The question is how fast is the decline going to go. If it’s fast, if it’s steep, there could be a big jump in the market.”

    West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery climbed 32 cents to $52.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:41 a.m. in London. Prices are down 50 percent from a year ago.

    More from Bloomberg.com: China ETF Investors in U.S. Miss Out on World's Best Stock Rally

    The decline in domestic production will come just as U.S. refineries start processing more oil following seasonal maintenance, easing the biggest glut since 1930. The withdrawal from U.S. oil stockpiles is expected to bring relief to a market that’s seen prices drop by more than $50 a barrel since June.

    Temporary Relief
    The relief may prove temporary as U.S. drillers are building a backlog of drilled wells that they plan to hydraulically fracture and place into service as soon as prices rebound. Analysts including Wood Mackenzie Ltd. have estimated that the inventory has grown to more than 3,000 uncompleted wells.

    More from Bloomberg.com: Iran Seeks Russian Missile Delivery This Year as U.S. Objects

    “U.S. production can return quickly with any price recovery,” Adam Longson, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York, said in an April 13 research note. “A backlog of uncompleted wells, falling service costs, hedging opportunities and plenty of capital on the sidelines should all support investment, perhaps more than the market expects.”

    The EIA’s May production forecasts cover the yield from major plays that together accounted for 90 percent of domestic output growth from 2011 to 2012.

    Regional Output
    Output from the Eagle Ford in Texas, the second-largest oil field in the U.S., is expected to fall 33,000 barrels a day in May to 1.69 million. Production in the Bakken region of North Dakota will decline 23,000 to 1.3 million, the EIA said.

    Yield from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. oil field, will continue to rise, by 11,000 barrels a day to 1.99 million.

    The EIA’s oil-production estimates are based on the number of rigs drilling in each play and estimates on how productive they are. The numbers of oil rigs in service across the country slid 42 last week to 760, the fewest since December 2010, Houston-based field services company Baker Hughes Inc. said.

    Deutsche Bank forecast in a research note last week that production in May will mark “an important inflection point for the U.S. oil market.”

    Advances in oil-drilling technologies are no longer enough to offset the rigs being idled by U.S. producers, Paul Horsnell, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in an April 13 research note. Shale production is probably already falling, with total U.S. output set to shrink by 70,000 barrels a day from May to June, he said.

    “The deceleration in U.S. output has been greater than the market is currently pricing in,” Horsnell said in the report. “Global rebalancing is in full swing.”

    (An earlier version of this story corrected the spelling of Deutsche Bank in the third paragraph.)

    SAGI'S NOTES

    The above article indicates what we have been stating for UWTI as the alert was posted, below is the oil daily chart US. Notice the trend change though not completely confirmed, if it continues to move above 54 it will be a short term confirmation. Expected average is around 65.00. Since the trend has changed we should now look for longs rather than short positions as our ethos is to go with the trend. Any correction in the current price may provide an opportunity to be in with early profits. Our chosen instrument to trade with is UWTI which is a triple bull ETF providing a leverage to the price. Any positive movement in the price will reflect on this stock quickly.

    Keep an eye on the Oil price trend a break above 54.00 and closing above 54 will be a good indicator that the price is intent on continuing upwards. Supply may return back above 65 dollars to 70 dollars though I would think there would be some redundancies.

    SAGI
     

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  23. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    OIL has climbed past 54.00 dollars and we now wait to see if it will remain above this price or jump back down. We await NY closing to see if the price will remain after that for 48 hours before moving into UWTI.

    SAGI
     
  24. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    STOCK ALERT: UWTI & CCJ (CCO.TO)

    CCJ (NY) has broken past the first resistance of 16.25 yesterday closing at 16.36 NY Closing. CCJ now is in an up trend and we hope will continue to climb.

    UWTI is also in incline and has broken past 3.32 however we require it to break past 4.00 and remain above that to confirm an up trend.

    Happy trading.

    SAGI
     
  25. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  26. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Well that really puts us in a bind in terms of Uranium. Japan better start putting solar panels on their houses soon.

    SAGI
     
  27. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    DISCLOSURE:

    In view of the news that Searcher put out I have placed a stop loss on CCJ at 15.50.

    SAGI
     
  28. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    the other side of the coin is that oil dependent Japan will continue to provide demand for oil.

    SAGI
     
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  29. scofield

    scofield Seeker

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    Hey Sagi, my feel is oil will consolidate here for about a month between 59 and 53 before going for 70. I usually try to not get too precise but with the 3x etf, i try to do more short term work to reduce risk.
    Just IMHO
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2015
  30. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I agree Scofield. The trade on ETN or ETF's is never long term. I honestly do not know if it will consolidate. I simply see the trend is moving up currently. I have en o idea if it will reverse or jump forward. Time will tell.


    SAGI
     
  31. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!



    HOME RUNS DON’T HAPPEN EVERY DAY-WITHOUT SWINGING.


    It has been sometime since I wrote an article.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to find gems of knowledge that have not already been written or narrated before. A few days ago a close friend from my childhood passed away. She was a lot younger than I am but once more cancer claimed another victim. I am not sure if it is the sins of parents or sins of ourselves that are killing us. Whatever the reasons we are seeing the emergence of diseases that we had long preferred to forget. Pneumonia, Small Pox, Ebola, Dengue fever, Tuberculosis, and our old friend and constant companion; Cancer. Statistics show that a number of these are remerging in strength and it also shows the areas where poverty abounds diseases such as these are on the increase. There are diseases of the poverty stricken and then there are diseases of the affluent and rich. Be you clad in rags or in riches, death does not discriminate. Death looks through all and sees only the very bones within our shrouds. He is probably the most patient and consistent trader out there. Diabetes, Dementia, Parkinson Disease, Cancer is more prevalent within the areas which are considered more affluent or there is simply not enough information gathered in poor areas to provide statistical evidence, that the disease of the rich is also affecting them. very few poor people suffer from Diabetes, Cancer, Gout( ok so I would not consider that as a disease, perhaps not even diabetes.) The sad truth is that some thing far more aggressive will kill the poor, like bad water or rotten food or even simple bacteria, or malaria before they can afford to get the rich diseases. Statistics plays with these values and they rarely provide an accurate and true picture of reality.

    Britain’s hospitals now have an average waiting time of four hours with some showing far longer waiting periods before one receives treatment. Does that statement show that health abounds within the kingdom’s realms? Or that is it a morbid perhaps a disheartening record?

    Yet those that live within the poverty stricken areas of Africa and Asia strive to move to those lands because four hours average wait is a lot better than weeks of average wait in their own countries. Or is it the allure of quick riches? An Eritrean gentleman was recently interviewed on one of the channels as to why he paid £1500 for each of his family members to smugglers to smuggle him and his family out of Eritrea which lies just above Ethiopia on the North east coast of Africa, across the Sahara, through Sudan finally arriving in Libya and taking a god forsaken boat across to either Greece or Italy. This week 600 such individuals drowned as one of these boats that would make; “Robinson Crusoe’s raft”, look like the Queen Mary, capsized, taking 600 lives. Perhaps he took a loan, perhaps relatives gathered the money for him, perhaps it was his life savings. I don’t know but he took a swing.

    The Eritrean gentleman decided to leave along with thousands and not go south to Kenya or to Uganda or any other, instead he preferred to go North through rebel territory, through the Janja weed rebels, across madness in Libya. the Eritrean stated that he and his family were persecuted in Eritrea. The truth is that very few individuals are persecuted in Africa. Life is simple there. The governments there have little money to pursue individuals of no consequence to persecute them. Governments target specific individuals that they believe are a threat to either themselves or society. They kill them quickly and move on. Very few of these are politically affiliated individuals and they certainly do not number in their hundreds of thousands. Last year Britain let in some 243,000 such individuals. Most from Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Palestine etc, but the majority coming through Kenya are Somalis. The Eritrean paid a sum of some £6000.00 to get through.

    First question; What is it that you did there that had such an impact on the government for them to perceive you to be a threat to the country? Secondly; How did you manage (since you categorically state you are a poor individual) to acquire £6000.00 to transport your family. If the threat was real why did you not seek asylum within the grounds of the British High Commission, rather than run 3000 miles in the northern direction. Surely if your case was valid they would have accepted you there? You state that you have now acquired a masters degree in the UK? Therefore you were probably not formally educated or came with an unrecognised degree. Please tell us who paid for this and how? It is simply not individuals from Africa that are transferring themselves to the UK taking advantage of the EU regulations but also individuals from the poorer Balken states that many recently became members of the EU. Hungry, Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland and whole host of other individuals. Very few come from Italy, Germany, France, Spain and even from Greece. There is one major attraction and that is social services. The NHS and the unemployment benefit that they get. Free money is always welcome. A family of Somalis that were highlighted, stay in a 6 bedroo house in Chelsea. The neighbours paid between 6 million and 10 million pounds for these flats and the council saw it fit to rent one of these for this family. For this kind of money you could build probably build 10 houses if not more on the outskirts of London. What madness is this? Its actually cheaper to repatriate the entire family back to Somalia, and buy them a massive plot and build them a massive house than to pay the rent on the Chelsea property for a few years. Many will consider me a Racist. I assure you I am not. I am simply using common sense which appears to be missing in most council employees. Do the numbers and you will understand the issues. No wonder the UK is running in deficit. Time and again I reiterate that the individuals employed within the government are not always renowned for their intelligence. Some of the most idiotic decisions have been implemented as law in the last two hundred years. Examples are;

    In Kenya donkeys required to wear diapers.
    In France, no pig should carry the name of Napoleon
    In California, a vehicle without a driver is not allowed to go beyond 60 miles per hour.
    In Alabama, you’ll be apprehended if you have an ice cream cone in your back pocket.
    In Hawaii, a resident who does not own a boat may be fined.
    In Florida, you are not allowed to have sex with a porcupine.
    In Nova Scotia, Canada, it is against the law to water the grass when it is raining.
    In Massachusetts, you can’t have a gorilla in the back seat of your car.
    In New York, jumping off a building is punishable by death.
    In Vermont, underwater whistling is prohibited.
    In Virginia, it is against the law to tickle women.

    Here is a link for some more stupid and morbid laws. http://www.politicalears.com/blog/the-20-most-stupid-laws-in-history/

    What is more frustrating is that these laws continue to be published/maintained and therefore remain enforceable. Politicians are not in the business of making profit rather they are in the business of stopping people making profit. Lets get this straight once and for all. Politicians who are young and make a career out of it usually take this as a final course to suspend their own failures in life. Once they achieve it they decide to make it as difficult as possible for anyone else to make a profit. No one in their right mind would become a politician because they felt there was money to be made there, well……unless you are a politician in Kenya. If you are then you are in the business of making profit. That is the whole point of becoming a politician in Kenya. Ask any Kenyan and he will give you a puzzled look and ask; “Well why else would you become a politician?” The end of a career is usually where one becomes a politician or a judge or something that we would consider to be a position of respect. In today’s day and age politicians have a different agenda.

    Markets can be manipulated. One trader caught this week was Navinder Singh Sarao who is responsible for the 2010 flash crash. An FBI investigation found that our fellow trader like ourselves a retail trader had managed to make some 45 million dollars in the last few years. here is the link from the telegraph.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-who-always-got-away-with-it-friends-say.html

    Markets can also be traded in a fair way and one can make money in them. The biggest losers are those with an ethos to getting rich quick. I assure you that the majority of us will not get rich quick. It will take practice, patience, and rigidity to adhere to rules that will eventually enable you to glen some return from the markets. Think of it in terms of a baseball hitter!

    A baseball hitter goes out there with a view to making a home run. There are various options that may avail them selves during his time in the game. He may swing and simply arrive at a base, he may strike out or he may actually hit a home run, but how many batters actually hit a home run in every single game. How many actually hit four home runs in a single game. The list is very short; 16 to be precise. However does this make these 16 as the most successful players in the history of baseball. (Now I know that most of you are thinking; “Watch it Sagi, you are about to open up a whole new can of worms”- but humour me! I have a valid point to make.) However who would we consider as the most successful base ball hitter in history?

    Most would say “Babe Ruth”, I would think that Ted Williams probably is as good if not better.

    Ted once stated the following; (there is wisdom in the words.)

    "When I grew up in San Diego," Williams once said, "I played baseball every day. I hit day and night. People said, 'Look, he's a natural.' It wasn't that. You've got to practice!.

    Here is a list of the top hitters known for their consistency.

    http://www.ranker.com/crowdranked-list/best-hitters-in-baseball-history

    How do they stand out? It wasn’t that they were hitting home runs in every single game rather their consistency over a long period of time. That could only be measured at the end of their careers. The markets like the games are dynamic -always in a state of change. Things are always changing in the markets and we are required to adapt to that change. Admit when we are wrong and CHANGE!


    Home runs matter but the most important lesson to take away is being able to survive to enable you to get your home run consistency.

    The arguments for investments Vs Trading are endless. There is no end to this. In the University of Life (the most expensive university in the world) Every lesson is an expensive lesson. Nothing comes for free but here is the most important lesson for everyone to remember; Since it is so expensive one will never forget it. Investments- fundamentals and Trading-sentiment.

    Hitters have a choice when they get onto the pitch. The look at the rim of the pitch and see where the catchers are placed, they assess the pitcher, and make a decision whether to stay, or go for that all out to the rim hit. Nothing is decided until the ball is on its way. A split second decision is made whether to let go of the pitched ball or take a swing at it. They know they have three tries to get it right. Three tries to move on or move out.

    The only way to get at the ball is to take a swing at it.

    So they have to swing, and try to hit that ball, good or bad. Its a round bat and there is less control on where it will be directed at, but swing they must.

    So should you. Do not be afraid to take that swing, but do practice your swing time and again until you have some control over your bat (buy/sell switch) Assess the position of the trade and decide if the odds are in your favour or not. As the ball lifts over the pitch the odds begin to swing in the favour of the catcher, if it passes the fence of course it will be a home run, but if it looses momentum the odds drop for you with ever single inch of drop. That is a risk you cannot avoid. Do not be afraid to swing because you are afraid to loose. If that is the case, you need to find another game, but I assure you that there will always be winners and losers in every single game. That is the nature of every game including the one of life and death.

    The migrants take an enormous risk by travelling. I have to grudgingly admire their tenacity, through their sheer desperation to achieve their goal. They have no inkling what awaits them on the other side. The odds are staked a mile high against them. They could die at any point; killed by the very people who are guiding them, dehydrated by the desert and die, killed by the Janja Weed, killed by Scorpions, Vipers, killed by loosing their way, killed by the rebels in Libya, killed by drowning, or after surviving all of this to be repatriated back to their homeland. Yet they choose to swing. Now there is a trader. I fear the day I have to trade against one of these guys in the markets.

    Every human being makes a basic error in projection when they live their lives; that they have an infinite amount of time on their hands and that they prioritise what they require to accomplish within their life span. That agenda is more often than not completely wrong, setting themselves with impossible tasks and wasting what should be considered finite time, pursuing these tasks and eventually realising the reality when it is too late. Everyone is under the illusion that they have power. From the president down to the street cleaner over someone. The truth is that they do not have the power, rather we let them have the power. There is a difference. The pursuit of happiness, does not need to be pursued. It is right here within you. You need to look within and not out there. The power is within you. The question is; Do you truly have the desire to be happy?

    Like the batsman we make fundamental mistakes thinking that there will always be another day. Eventually that “another day”; passes and we have a “margin call” of life. The batter gets a margin call after three shots. We get it once. The priorities are skewed and what they perceive to be the pursuit of happiness.

    Happiness is not a constant. I assure you that if you were happy all the time you would be quite insane or at least everyone else would consider you insane. I suppose that is not a bad thing altogether. We live within our own circles. We follow the rules of society, and do our duty. Make school runs, take the kids for tuitions, music lessons, training games, swimming lessons, look after our parents ensure they take their medicines, repair the house, wash and wax the car, mow the lawn, plant flowers and continue with an inexhaustible number of tasks through our lives. At some point we all have moments when we pause and think; “what we are doing?”, until the next task comes along which usually comes up in anywhere between 5 minutes to half an hour. At the end of the day when we do have time we simply do not want to think.

    We assume that the rich have no worries, but nature is a most magnificent prankster and eventually plays its tricks on the entire audience without considering status. The rich worry almost about the same things as anyone else. The only difference is that they believe that money will provide the majority of solutions. The have the fear that their children will not be able to step into their shoes and even if they do will never be able to fill them. They follow the illusion that by purchasing grandeur, they will gain happiness. The truth is the rich were far more happier when they were poor. With extreme money comes extreme responsibility and extreme fear. The fear of loosing it. The fear of not living up to expectations. Herein lies the crux, one is more worried about how another feels rather than how oneself feels. They want to be recognised for what they are worth. They need to sustain their status. Have parties to actually spend time with friends. I watched some of the reality shows on TV recently and they actually confirmed many of these same situations. They suffer from the same emotions and same aliments as any of us. Jelousy, hatred, ambition, guilt, sloth….you get the jest of it. Then what is the point of pursuing such?

    They suffer from the same issues as they did when they were poor, just on a much grander scale. If one is under the illusion that by having a nicer car, a bigger house, a huge garden can provide happiness, I assure you it does not. Happiness has nothing to do with money, or wealth. Next time you are at a traffic light look at the car standing next to yours, even better if it is a limousine, a Ferrari, Lamborghini, or a Buggati. Look at the person sitting inside. Look at him closely. Does he look happy or does he look worried or contstipated? Probably 7 out of 10 times they look worried or frustrated. Now consider the moment. Despite having the car and the riches, he or she is unable to move a single inch past you. Despite everything they are in exactly the same place as you. Standing at a standstill in traffic or a red light…….of life.

    We looked at Cameco for the last three months. A BUY was provided last month and since then Cameco has continued to struggle but has continued to slowly gain. It has surpassed our first goal of 16.50. Now sitting at 17.50. If it holds above this the next important goal is to remain above 18.00. We could see it move up further but there will be profit taking for some and this may bring it down a little and that will provide an opportunity to average up and adding a little stock.

    UWTI continued to move up but has taken a step back as the price of oil came down. Oil needs to remain above 54.40 or thereabouts in order to have a status of positive movement. We can expect it to attain a price of around 65.00 or above by the end of the year. We may never see oil hit 140.00 again as the fundamentals for demand continue to change, as sentiment to use of oil is modified to use alternatives, but that does not mean that the demand will simply stop. Like a mile long train it takes a long time to come to a halt. Oil will continue to play a significant role as long as we have moving parts. The day an invention comes up that no longer requires moving parts to move, SELL OIL. The day we no longer require an internal combustion engine SELL OIL. The day we truly have a truly efficient alternative energy SELL OIL. Until that day there will be demand for oil.

    Despite the set back of Japan being legally halted by the law courts there from restarting their nuclear power plants, it is inevitable that sooner or later they will have to restart. A failure to do so will continue to haemorrhage the economy of that country. The spending currently going on to import oil will have to eventually lead to cutbacks in other areas, whether its medical, infrastructure or within local councils of that country. Their trade surplus is diminishing as is their supply of dollars which will eventually lead to perhaps public sector borrowing. No country can continue to bleed at this level and live. At some point it will all come to a head. Japan doe snot head the demand but it can playa significant role in changing world wide sentiment. I sincerely believe that Abe could overrule the judgement, but I think he is careful to consider sentiment of the people and there is a much bigger picture that needs to be considered, which will become clearer with time. I believe that the oil price dropping has worked out well for Japan. It provided some relief for the people as well as the government. The rising of oil price will affect the lives of many in Japan including its capacity to be competitive in production for export. Eventually the people themselves will demand it.

    Gold has tested and retested 1200 on more than several occasions. It is getting a little irritative but I am persuaded that patience shall eventually pay out dividends. The correction is imminent, the time, I cannot say. Perhaps it may not reach the expected lows this summer but there is a likelihood of this occurring. If it does it will be a good time to buy gold. Anything now under 1150 is a godsend. Anything under 1100 is a miracle and anything under that is equivalent to ET knocking on your door inviting you for a cup of tea on the next habitable planet.

    May is usually the historical time for decline set to begin in anticipation of summer doldrums. Be aware that stock markets generally begin to decline at this point. May 2-June 15.

    If I have offended anyone with my writing, I apologise in advance.

    I bid you and your family a good weekend in the pursuit of happiness.


    SAGI.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2015
  32. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    :thumbs_up:...........................:beerglass:

    Sagi................. Thanks for another great read. May I have your permission to repost this in the "getting in shape thread" ( http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?50850-Getting-In-Shape-For-SHTF/page43 ) and to send it to several people I know? All credit will go to you (of course.)

    Have a great day.

    Edit: (My bad) Sorry for your loss. I had a dear family member pass away last night and I have a lot of things going through my mind right now.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2015
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  33. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dear Sir Searcher,

    You do not need permission to publish something that may aid others. You are welcome to republish any of the articles you see fit to do so, for all of the current ones and those written in the past are done to benefit all. If you see fit, please go ahead and publish them. My objective is to see all readers benefit and take no credit for anything that I write, for truly I do not know where it comes from. If there is wisdom it is to share among all, not to be hoarded, for greed is not what we advocate here on this thread. WE all share our experience for the betterment of the world and mankind. That, "in my opinion" is the true wealth we seek.

    Kindest regards

    SAGI
     
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  34. davycoppitt

    davycoppitt Seeker Seeker

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    Thanks SAGI. I send just about every Coffee to my brother via email. Always tell him from a buddy I know online by the name of Sagi. He also loves them.
     
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  35. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Thanks Davy! I do have to admit that some of my articles have been a little on the edge of mental breakdown LOL. I think I still have most of the past five years articles hauled up in a file somewhere. Maybe I should read a few of them again. LOL Cannot remember what I wrote in them.

    SAGI
     
  36. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    CCJ is showing signs of a down turn so be careful. Place stop losses.

    SAGI
     
  37. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Spot uranium price ignores fundamentals

    Irina Dorokhova - Kursiv | May 12, 2015




    [​IMG]
    Nuclear reactor in Lianyungang



    Year 2014 sent mixed signals to the uranium market.



    The players keep talking about an excessive supply and all major uranium producers except for Kazatomprom had to cut production. Only Kazatomprom and Cameco managed to increase their revenue in 2014. In the meantime, China, India, and Russia have been commissioning new reactors. Cameco has run first batches of ore through its Cigar Lake plant (design capacity stands at 18,600 t U per annum).

    CGNPC of China plans to start production at its Husab mine in Namibia this May. All this new supply will meet the demand from new reactor builds. Hence, the anticipated uranium price rise due to new demand may not happen as main players, and first of all China, will try to ensure their independence from external supply. The main reason for price correction may be not the growing demand but the producers’ inability to meet the consumers’ price expectations.


    Growth factors

    Japanese demand is no longer a factor in the uranium marketplace as not a single reactor was restarted in 2014. Only two reactors at the Takahama powerplant were approved for restart last December and, since the Fukushima incident in March 2011, only one reactor at the Oi plant was restarted in July 2012.

    The market players we queried are certain that nuclear plants in Japan will eventually have to restart as the current electricity costs in Japan are simply too high. Yet, the authorities pace themselves on granting approvals and it is not impossible that gradual restarts will not affect the market as much as did the Japanese reactors’ shutdown. The market watches every move by the Japanese authorities and it is entirely possible that Japanese supply deals may be made long before the restart thus making their effect on the market negligible.

    All uranium companies keep talking in their market releases about the world’s growing nuclear power generation where the key player is China which plans to build 40 to 58 GW of nuclear generation before 2020. After the Fukushima disaster, Chinese authorities had stopped issuing power plant permits without adjusting the construction plans thus leading to the current acceleration in nuclear builds. China launched three reactors in 2014 adding 3 GW of nuclear capacity and commissioned another three reactors (+3GW) in March 2015. Since the beginning of the year, China launched four new reactors. The current nuclear capacity stands at about 23 GW and it is expected to increase by three 1 GW reactors by the end of the year. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA) 26 reactors are under construction in China. As each reactor requires at least six years for construction, Chinese nuclear generation may reach 49 GW by 2020 – right between the announced 40 and 58 GW marks.

    Russia also plans increasing its nuclear capacity but these plans are more modest. Only nine reactors (7968 MW) are currently under construction. Rosatom plans to launch 2 reactors at the Novovoronezhskaya and Beloyarskaya power plants this year. Rosatom’s representative in Kazakhstan Vitaliy Ryabov confirmed: “It will be the fourth reactor at the Novovoronezhskaya plant, and the Beloyarskaya power plant had been planned before. We have not made any announcements about commissioning new reactors. Next year, we shall commission a reactor at the Leningradskaya plant, another reactor at the Novovoronezhskaya plant and the fourth reactor of the Rostovskaya plant”. According to Rosatom’s website, The Academician Lomonosov (70 MW) floating nuclear NPP should completed this year.

    The next largest player and growth factor is India. It operates 21 reactors for a total capacity of 5302 MW. WNA reports that 1579 t U will be required to fuel Indian reactors in 2015. Six reactors (4300 MW) are under construction. According to WNA, Indian domestic production in 2013 stood at 400 t U.

    Will the uranium demand be met by 2020? Uranium companies hope the uranium price achieves the $60-65 mark which would sustain new mine development. Producers talk about a 3,000-5000 t U oversupply on the market. This quantity of uranium could fuel 10-12 1000 MW VVER reactors for a year.

    Areva estimates (WNA, 2013) that the demand and supply will reach equilibrium by 2020 and remain so until 2035 with production from new mines balancing off the rising demand. The share of new projects is expected to grow from 20% in 2020 to 60% in 2035.


    Supply side

    China is the fastest-growing consumer and it’s important to understand what its current and future fuel sources are. China produced 1450 t U in 2013 (most current WNA data) having maintained its production at approximately the same level for the preceding two years. China will require 8161 t U to fuel its reactors in 2015. Industry experts believe that Chinese uranium deposits are rather small and low-grade which makes their development costly and production expensive. “China has declared more than 350 uranium deposits nationwide over the past 60 years. The country's uranium reserve has doubled in the recent 15 years with new uranium deposits, especially some large-scale ones, being discovered, said Du Yunbin, head of the China Nuclear Geology (CNG), at a forum marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of the administration and the start of the country's nuclear geological search”, reported Xinhua. Experts are skeptical: “They are yet to build sufficient production. There aren’t enough explored deposits and they will need to find them first”, – said one of the market participants.

    China also has production overseas with the main project being Husab (Roessing South). CGNPC through its subsidiary purchased about 50% voting rights in Kalahari Minerals from Rio Tinto’s affiliates for US$2 billion.

    Kalahari Minerals plc owns 43% of Australia-based Extract Resources Ltd, which is owner of mineral rights of Husab with a 187700 t U resource. Another US$200 million CGNPC has invested in the project. The project’s capital cost is expected to be significant because “China was discussing the construction of a railway line between Tsumeb and the port harbour of Walvis Bay that was estimated to cost more than 500 million US dollars. It will transport cargo and passengers. "The issue was how to raise the funds. The Ministry had the budget, but it could not release the funds on time”, – said Chinese Ambassador to Namibia Xin Shunkang according to allafrica.com.

    “We have been clearing the overburden of sand and we will start mining ore from May onwards,” Percy McCallum, spokesman for CGNPC’s Namibian unit, Swakop Uranium, said in an e-mailed response to questions on Friday. “We expect to have stockpiled 1 million tons of ore by December”, – Bloomberg reported.

    The project’s design capacity is expected to be at 7000 t U per year.

    Besides, CNNC purchased 25% of Paladin Energy for US$190 million in a bid to participate in Paladin’s flagship Langer Heinrich mine. Under the agreement, CNNC will be able to buy 25% of Paladin’s production at spot market prices. The operation has a current design capacity of 2016 t U (5.2 Mlb of uranium concentrate) per year and was targeting to reach 2209 (5.7 Mlb) in 2014 making the Chinese share some 500 t U.

    Another Chinese asset is Semizbay-U in Kazakhstan. It is a JV between NAK Kazatomprom plus its wholly-owned subsidiary Gornorudnaya company LLC (51%) and Beijing Sino-Kaz Uranium Resources Investment Company Limited (49%). The 1200 t U annual capacity was achieved in 2012 from the Semizbay and Irkol mines.

    Industry experts estimate that the Chinese nuclear capacity of 23 GW requires about 400 t fuel or 4000 t U3O8 per year. As WNA states Chinese consumption at 8161 t U (9346 t U3O8), it appears that over a half of its consumption is not fuelling power plants. “The Chinese are not using uranium for its energy needs only, they actively develop their nuclear weapons where, given the level of enrichment, they would need a great deal of uranium”, – suggested a source at a major uranium company.

    If all Chinese construction plans come true in 2020, the fleet annual requirements will be about 870 t fuel (7450 t U). The 10150 t U aggregate of domestic production (1450 t U), Semizbay-U (1200 t U) (Semizbay-U), Langer Heinrich (500 t U), and Husab (7000 t U) means that China will more that cover its uranium requirements.

    Russia. With the purchase of Uranium One, Russia’s AtomRedmetzoloto (ARMZ) has got probably the world’s cheapest, most environmentally-friendly, and longest lasting source of uranium. In its 2014 annual report, Uranium One reported production of 4032 t U (5117 t U in 2013) at a cash cost of $14/lb ($16/lb in 2013). The dramatic drop in production was attributed to a suspension of Uranium One’s mining rights at the Akdala, South Inkai, and Kharasan mines between 4 June and 17 October 2014 when all yellowcake production was accounted for as Kazatomprom’s. Without this re-attribution, Uranium One’s production were to stand at 4885 t U (5715 t U3O8). According to WNA, Russian domestic production was 3135 t U in 2013. Areva reported in its annual report, that Russia produced 3000 t U in 2014. Rosatom reported about 8300 t U produced in 2013. According to Areva, ARMZ’s mines produced 8500 t U in 2014.

    According to WNA, Russia will need 4206 t U in 2015 while, judging by its fleet size, some 7300 t U will be required besides the fuel rods needed for Russian-designed reactors in other countries that may demand as much as 2000 t U. If these estimates are correct, Russia may have an insignificant shortfall of uranium which may be covered by purchases or supplies from other sources.

    India has signed a sales agreement with Cameco a short while ago. The company will provide the Department of Atomic Energy of India with 7.1 million pounds of uranium concentrate per year through 2020.

    Recent reports suggest that India may be unable to increase its domestic production or acquire mines in other jurisdictions and its preference would be to buy uranium under long-term contracts. “At a time when India is trying to ramp up its uranium import, its own domestic production of the yellow cake has declined by 10-15 per cent after operations in the country's oldest and richest uranium mine in Jaduguda in Jharkhand has been stopped by the state government. Department of Atomic Energy sources said it has taken steps to increase the production from other mines to maintain the supply and demand, but the low quality of ore from other mines have led to increase in the production cost. The government has often cited "mismatch between demand and supply of domestic uranium" as the reason for under-functioning of the nuclear power reactors. Of the 20 reactors, 10 nuclear power stations use domestic fuel and generate 2840 MW of electricity”, – reported The Economic Times in December 2014.


    Costly and unneeded

    A common theme for the countries which need uranium the most seems to be their reluctance to develop their own deposits if cheaper sources of uranium can be secured overseas. Our usual sources say “the price of uranium is not a significant factor in power generation”. However, neither of China, Russia, or India are striving to build their own mines which seems to be too costly when it is so much cheaper to purchase uranium overseas or obtain from producers under control.

    The market will be shaped up by least expensive production. For Uranium One, whose main production comes Kazakhstan, the total cash cost is at US$14/lb. Cameco’s main assets are located in Canada and its total cash cost is Cad$27.96/lb (27.83 in 2013). And Cameco expects the costs to rise: “As Cigar Lake ramps up to full production, the cash cost of material produced from the mine will initially be higher. If we make additional discretionary purchases in 2015 at a cost different than our other sources of supply, then we expect the overall unit cost of sales to be affected”, – the company reported in the recent MDA.

    Do countries prefer to buy uranium on the market or to acquire and develop projects? Russia and China choose the latter while India prefers the former. It is possible that the key issue is whether the state has the will and wherewithal to acquire and develop new uranium deposits. “One should confuse the cost of nuclear fuel with the cost of acquiring and developing a new uranium mine. The logic could be similar to buying a house. While the cost of maintaining a house is not an issue for many of us, it’s irrelevant since we don’t have the money to buy one”, – said a uranium company executive.

    Traditionally they say that production and total cash costs are not factors for state-owned uranium and/or nuclear companies. In practice, the state prefers to find cheapest uranium sources and does not hesitate to go to other jurisdictions. This strategy affects the uranium market as state-owned companies limit less-expensive supply by developing their less-expensive projects.


    A virtual spot price

    In their estimates, uranium companies refer to spot and contract prices. Spot price is used for long-term projections but its influence varies. Companies with contracts fare better, and it has been most obvious during the past four years. Paladin, which sells most of its production on the spot market, was hit financially and had to accept CNNC proposal.

    It is not easy to see what affects the spot price. The spot market ignored the shutdown of Kayelekera in November 2013 and the two accidents at Rio Tinto’s Ranger Mine and Rossing in December 2013 after which Rio Tinto’s production halved from 3676 t U (8105M lb U3O8) to 1852 t U (4084M lb U3O8). In June 2014, the average price, according to Cameco, was $28.23/lb U3O8. Likewise, the spot market did not pay any heed to the commissioning of Chinese for new reactors (4 GW) during the first three months of 2015.

    Areva cut production from 8567 t U in 2013 to 7307 t U in 2014.

    Uranium One reduced production from 5126 t U (13,2M lb of U3O8) to 4035 t U (10,411M lb of U3O8).

    BHP Billiton’s uranium production was quite stable: 3408 t U (3988 t U3O8) in 2014 compared to 3475 t U (4066 t U3O8) in 2013.

    Cameco’s production was also steady, with a drop from 9148 t U (23,6M lb U3O8) in 2013 to 9032 t U (23,3M lb U3O8).

    Only Kazakh state-owned company Kazatomprom increased its production to 13156 t U, 4.4% higher than 2013 year level.

    Only two companies among largest uranium producers were able to improve their revenue. Kazatomprom improved it to $1.1 billion (non-consolidated) although it is impossible to say by how much. In its non-consolidated 2013 report, the company reported 166,255 billion Tenge while in the 2014 non-consolidated report, the 2013 revenue was reported as 166,302 billion Tenge. In the 2013 consolidated report, the sales revenue in the uranium segment (without earnings from JV and associated companies which were recognized separately) was 189,874 billion Tenge. We can’t explain these inconsistencies.

    Cameco improved its revenue from $1633 million to $1777 million.

    Areva and Uranium One reduced their revenues. Even operating earnings were negative (-73M euro for mining BG and -$16,5M consequently). Rio Tinto recognized a loss in its energy group (including coal mines).

    The spot price drop will have the worst impact on junior companies. They are unable to protect themselves with long-term contracts and appeal to demand increase, because while demand rises it is already being covered.

    Perhaps these companies need to prove intending purchasers that production from their projects will cheaper than others. But currently there is one-and-only purchaser at the market.

    The uranium market already saw spot prices and long term prices dropping below $20. It seems this scenario is possible. But perhaps it's possible theoretically, because no uranium producer is able to match this price. Even state-owned companies. Even Kazatomprom.



    http://www.mining.com/web/spot-uranium-price-ignores-fundamentals/
     
  38. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  39. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  40. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!


    K.I.S.S. THE RAGU WAY!



    I enjoy cooking. Most men will dab a little but I have taken the task with gusto. No pun intended, I tend to get passionate about the whole process. Initially I began with ready sauces. I am a great lover of pasta and especially Bolognese sauce. Many of us are perhaps aware of Ragu. The word is interesting. Though many think it is Italian, history states otherwise.

    The word Ragu actually has its origins in France. Ragù as pasta sauces in Italian cuisine, likely arose from the influence and status of French ragoûts in the region of Emilia-Romagna in the late 18th century, following Napoleon's 1796 invasion and possession of the northern regions of what is now Italy. Prior to that time, the cuisine of the Italian peninsula had a long history of meat stews going back to the Renaissance period.

    However, they were neither known as 'Ragù' nor is there any record they were ever paired with pasta. Ragu de beauf translated from french means Beef Stew. Since the 16th century, it was not uncommon for pasta to be cooked in and served with a meat broth, often like a simple soup, from which the meat was removed and served separately, if eaten at all. The first documented recipe for a meat sauce, in which the cooked meat was an integral part of the sauce served with pasta, dates to the end of the 18th century. That first ragù as a sauce, ragù for maccheroni, was prepared and recorded by Alberto Alvisi, the cook to the Cardinal of Imola (at the time maccheroni was a general term for pasta, both dried and fresh). The recipe has been replicated and published as The Cardinal's Ragù. I have taken this last quote from Wikipedia. Here is the link for this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ragù It makes an interesting read.

    Ragu in reality is a simple sauce to create. Some tomatoes, onions, garlic, a little green chilli if one likes and some olive oil are the basic ingredients. Over a period of two hundred years we have made it a diabolically complicated recipe, involving many different ingredients. To the point that we cannot actually recognise the simple recipe and its elegance in its present state. Human taste too has changed over time. Our tongue has actually lost its sensitivity to delicate tastes and refuses to acknowledge tastes other than extremely strong ones. We have to blame our brothers from the east for this, and blame the explorers who brought the taste of the indies to the west. With the introduction of Pepper corn to the west a new trade product was introduced. This provided a great deal of trade and is entwined with the politics and power plays of Venice and Genoa in Italy and outside the scope of our article. It again makes an interesting read if one has the time to dab. However (Get to the point SAGI) here we are back to me sitting in the kitchen dabbling in some cooking and thinking on this article.

    The truth is I am not averse to complicating things as it is simply human nature based on our experience of the past. We know for example; that if we “simply” split the atom we get a nuclear reaction. Its simple. Split and we get energy. Things get a little complicated as the whole process runs away from us in an uncontrolled manner and we end up with a whole load of mess spilling out which we never wanted. Further still that mess refuses to stop until its makes us part of the ingredients and we don’t want that either. Aha complicated humans!

    Ok so what exactly does the Ragu have to do with our article. Quite simply put; Do not think that by adding more ingredients you are making a better recipe. Sometimes keeping it simple actually is the better option.

    We sincerely believe that without complication we cannot have an elegant solution. The reason for this is simple. We find a solution and then we attempt to make it a better solution, continuing to add parameters or ingredients…..never quite satisfied. There is a graph in maths which approaches 0 infinitely. It never reaches 0 or perfection; simply continuing to approach where the gaps continues to become smaller and smaller but the slope continues to recede. We call this approach asymptotic. We generally apply the term to large samples of data, but humans also apply a similar method to solutions. We simply cannot leave something at 50% acceptance or even 90%, we strive for perfection until finally we have a mess. The truth is approximation in many cases works better than attempting to achieve perfection. A further truth is that perfection is about as achievable as finding the end of the universe. Possible but not probable.

    If we look at any thing from the invention of a new drug to the major engineering feats, nothing is 100% proof. Everything has some element of estimation, some element of un-predictable misfortune that is bound to hit us, and it is an idiot who asks if it is perfect. It is a genius who factors in the unpredictable and accepts the possibility of murphy’s law.

    The truth is there is no specific methodology in the science of trading because there are too many estimated ingredients in the Ragu of trading. Sometimes the taste will be good and at other times it will be a shambles. So how do chefs get it right considering that the quality of ingredients change all the time, how do they achieve a consistent success rate in taste and continue to bring customers in?

    They do so by judgement, tasting, estimations or best estimate, get a similar taste and send it out. They have broad parameters not detailed ones. 2 cloves or 3 cloves of garlic, well what size were they last time when they were three and what size are they this time, and does anyone have a micro meter and someone get the gold weighing scale. Was it more garlicky last time or less? Who gives a monkeys bottom? If it sounds like a horse, it smells like a horse, looks like a horse well the probability is that it is a horse. Best estimation we are looking at a horse. Chefs keep it simple. the put in fewer ingredients than one thinks that go into a great dish. Taste is like a sentiment it develops, adopts and adjusts to what is presented to it. No one came out of their mothers womb knowing what Ragu was.

    Our charts are no different. Very often we get a huge a huge amount of indicators on. and draw a massive number of lines to predict the way price is going to move, but for once remove all indicators and all lines.

    Look at the candle chart naked. Look for the simplest thing on the daily chart; Is it in a) up trend b) in down trend c) going nowhere and range bound.

    These three things tell you one very simple but vitally important thing, go with the direction of least resistance. If it is going up then we shall only trade upwards, if its going down then we shall trade with shorts. If its going nowhere we shut the chart and look at another.

    A few years ago a friend of mine and I were sitting by the sea shore. On the right of us there was a large rock. For some years the locals had been watching this rock waiting for it to break as the water weathered it away. My friend and I were discussing some issues in regards to a particularly extremely disliked person who had objections to everything. I was extremely disturbed by this individual’s actions and with my mind at unrest, my friend pointed to the rock and asked;

    “Which do you think is stronger the rock or the water?”
    Being agitated and mentally disturbed by the events, I angrily replied it was the rock. At first glance it is hard unmovable, and resists everything from the water to all the other elements present. wind, rain, sun, sand. The rock defies all.

    He smiled at my anger feeling my frustration and asked me to look again at the rock. “Look at its precarious position, balanced on the edge of oblivion like a soldier defying an entire army, hoping to enter heaven in glory of his defeat, refusing to give in, now look at the sea even though it is serene and gentle now almost caressing the rock with love and gentleness is about to break it into two. Look as the water only gently swirls around the rock. It does not attack it directly but moves aside giving way. That too is a way to attack.

    As I watched, be it destiny, there before our very eyes the rock began to wobble, it swayed at first with very little movement but as each gentle wave touched it, it swayed more like a drunken soldier rather than the majestic one it once was. People began to watch and the news spread quickly as a crowd gathered. Slowly but surely after three hours it almost saluted and then toppled over and crashed into the sea, where the water once more gently caressed almost like a mother gently putting her son to sleep. There was beauty if you saw it. There was a lesson if you saw it. Gentleness and patience defeats all, even the hardest rock. Be the water not the rock. Every little wave has an impact and will eventually break every rock. The water turned out to be harder than the rock. If one want to survive one must give way and accept small defeats to gain one large victory. The water always goes with the direction of least resistance. So should you. Go with the trend!

    The trend of the rock breaking had been going on for hundreds of years if not thousands. the trend was obvious but one could not predict the time it would be completed. So like a diver taking a risk by stepping on stone and taking a dive so do traders, they step up take the risk and enter the trade with the trend banking on probability be more in their favour that the trend would continue.

    Back to my small observation and the naked candle bar chart.

    Once you have this information all one requires to do is put in support and resistance lines. Support is where the price moved down and bounced back up. 7 out of 10 times you will find that the price has bounced from this same area several times. It may vary by a few cents to a few dollars depending on the price. The resistance line is the opposite it shows you where the stock has bounced back down from. A similar situation of prices bouncing back down will be found in the charts history. These areas are where you trade from. There will be small areas of bounces and one can place them if price shows that it finds repulsion in these areas. So what exactly does one look for on a naked chart with only candle sticks and support and resistance areas?

    This is where some complexity comes in. The simplest way is to look for a pattern. Patterns are as similar as two leopards spots. There will always be some difference and sometimes one may not recognise the pattern but it may have some similar traits. One must look for a long candle wick and a small head upside down at resistance or upper level or the opposite a hammer standing with up with its head at the top in a support area.


    The wick stands far above or below the lowest recent previous candle and even though it breaches the resistance line or support line it closes below or above the previous level on the daily close depending on wether its hitting support or resistance. Make a note of this candle and now wait for the next candle to develop. If it closes below the lower point or above the upper point this reiterates an indication that the sentiment may have changed. Sometimes these candle sticks occur as continuation pin bars, a drop or rise in the price allows one to make an added entry at these points.

    There is an Achilles heel that one requires to understand and accept. This is not a trend following methodology. In this method of taking profits one requires to fix their returns either one to two, if that breaks then one to three ratio of profit to loss. So if you have a candle with a wick that is 50 pips long and your stop loss has to be above the longest wick eg ten pips above that, you have a target profit of 120 pips. If the candles continue to penetrate the support or resistance without taking a break you know you are onto a good thing and bring the stops to break even and continue to hold positions until either it hits another support or resistance or 180 pips. At some point you will have to make a decision to take profits. Either with the appearance of another hammer or simply a slow down to support or resistance. It is not always the case that these indicator candles appear. Sometimes a couple of similar candlesticks with full bodies appear so one requires to develop some skill in recognising such.

    We try to remove a lot of the rif raf by using heikin ashi candles rather than normal candles. One can choose the Hei kin ashi candle in stockcharts.com I am sure other chart systems will also allow you to do the same. The Heikin Ashi system uses four averages. Each subsequent candle begins from the middle of the previous one. With HK one can add a EMA(Exponential moving average) or SMA (simple moving average) of 20 or 30 where if the candle cleanly crosses over or under one can take an entry. One can then use a 10 day or 10 session one to get out when the trend reverses. This is a simple method of entering a trade and getting out. It works well with daily and 4 hour charts rather than scalping. One should adjust the MA depending on their own nature so try out a few scenarios and see if anything works for you.

    Try not clutter the chart with huge amounts of indicators, while I will not categorically state that indicators do not work, I do believe that they work periodically and other times provide false signals. Therefore there is no consistency in the results. Its quite easy to rely on one method and when it does let one down it may all but wipe you out. However with cleaner charts ones gets a cleaner picture that is stark and while it may be less accurate it also provides one with a broader spectrum of possibilities thereby preparing you for several eventualities rather than a bias picture. Your rules should, “when backtested”, provide a regular consistency of returns over short, medium and long term periods. The returns may vary from as little as 1% to 2% to as large as several hundred percent however on the longer time lines these will average out and that is what one should look at. In some cases and certain periods will show negative growth, again that comes with the territory and depends on the variance of the sample and the size of it.

    By applying rules one can distance the emotional issues or the questions that get raised. Try not to let emotions entangle your decisions. The rules cleanly allow entry and exits. That is their job, let them do it. Not every trend trade will be successful rather a few will. However if you catch the trend it makes up for all the small losses that were incurred.


    In short one requires to calculate the losses one is able to take and therefore not trade on leverage.

    Gold surprised us all by jumping up. Let us see if this trend will continue or it will make a down turn again crossing 1200 again. It has crossed and recrossed this area now for over 14 times. It is in consolidation. Perhaps it will break out now. Perhaps we will see it test 1250. If we were trend trading as I keep reiterating we would taken looses nearly 15 times perhaps even more. However being on the long side in each case taking a position from around 1190.00 will have been more sensible rather than shorting gold. I am referring to paper futures rather than physical. The two are mutually exclusive.

    For those readers that may be considering trading the trend have a look at the Chart for GDX. It has not broken the down trend and despite the current spike in gold, I am inclined to wait patiently and let the trend actually set in before making an investment into the sector. As it stands I have plenty of gold stocks that I am invested in and am underwater as all of you. To put it in a nutshell, we are all on the same half sunk boat.

    Uranium continues to spike interest and like gold it will take time if it is to show a significant incline. Fro those trading on fundamental basis one can consider investing into Cameco for a ten year period and leave it alone. I am not personally inclined to do so. I would rather wait patiently and see the trend develop. I have already invested into Cameco and advocated earlier for others to do so too.

    Gold Stocks; I would like to draw you attention to Novo resources once more as it has declined based on the results of one deep and rather expensive drill hole. The results were abysmal and alas the punters dropped the stock like a rock. The finds have been a little disappointing in the recent past, but there is a good probability that they will find a huge deposit. I am not inclined to go blindly into this stock but I am keen to watch it and have the patience to remain on the ring side and see how this plays out. It amy take them a couple of years to get the right results. The price action will provide us with an indication. Keep an eye on the volume. The change in volume traded will probably be the first indication that something is happening. Barrick gold was one I had purchased earlier but got stepped out of this as my stop loss was too close and a spike got me. Its back down to 13.12. That is surprising considering gold price went up. This inclines me to look at GDX which is beginning to show some sign of life but there is still time so be patient and one rule of thumb that many apply is that before gold prices move up the stocks prices rise. Well that has not occured as yet despite gold prices appear on the incline.

    Alternative energy stocks have produced mixed feedbacks with TSL and CSIQ holding their own. CSIQ dropped to 20 dollars apprx and rallied to a current 38 dollars. There is resistance around 45 dollars. TSL is slightly different though the pattern appears similar with resistance at 19 dollars. TSL currently trading Sub 13 dollars and I would advocate keeping en eye out on weakness.

    Western Lithium or WLC.TO or WLCDF (NY) is another to watch. Coincidence or not Tesla’s plant is strategically being constructed very near to this deposit. They have begun some production but are yet to begin their process of the lithium clays. Another company is Canada lithium corp or CLQ.V. It has similar deposit but I have not looked at the operating costs so I am not saying anything further about these. Keep an eye on both.

    Energizer ENZR (NY) continues to remain low and the trend has not changed; it may happen or it may not. I suggest we keep an eye on it from time to time and watch if the trend changes. Look for similar stocks that mine actual graphite. I grant that there is not a lot of choice out there.

    I have been looking in the last few days at past interesting stocks. One was Molycorp which was restarted as a rare earth company a couple of years ago with heights of 70 dollars and dropped down to present day prices of 1.60 or thereabouts. Similarly there was General moly GMO which at one point was flying high when the commodity sector was at its height in 2006 at near 8 to 10 dollars now lounging at 70 cents. The one thing to note from exploration companies is that a lot can happen between sentiment and actual production. GMO climbed once more when Posco and Acellor Mittal made a deal with the company for off take of material. None of which has materialised to present day. It jumped once more when shovels and mining equipment orders were purchased and once more it did not incline much over 4 dollars. Ideally purchasing GMO form here has little downside, possible target around 3.50 to 4.00.

    However lets look at some gold producers that have had some problems.


    Kinross gold was at one time a major producer, I suppose it still is. It bought out what many called a major deposit in South America and another in West Africa. Both deposits had issues. One was over prices while the other came with a heavy political baggage. In terms of explorations companies I had invested in exeter resources when gold tanked. The stock dropped from around 2.50 to 50 cents. Great, now I have to wait for gold to increase in price and sentiment to return to the market. Right now producers are bring treated as toilet paper. Even stocks like Barrick Gold have hit the 10 dollar mark as have silver stocks such as Pan american Silver and Silver standard resources. When some producers are sub 10 dollars there really is no point in investing in exploration. IF you believe in gold then go for producers, what ever price you pay now will naturally increase in terms of the value of the underlying gold as they continue to not only produce but also increase resources.

    I did some technical analysis in gold price based on daily and weekly charts. I came across two possible dates projections for prices of gold to begin rising. One sat squarely between June and November 2015. The other was a little less accurate and sat between February and June 2016. This is based on a simple base being created at present if this base does not break the spring continues to tighten the natural progression is some thing has to give either this summer or at the beginning of next year to mid next year. Companies will find it extremely difficult to sustain themselves at current prices. If gold prices drop from here we could see a number of companies going under unless they have already taken steps to be liquid. Gold has to break 1250 in order to be in an uptrend. It is likely that it will decline form 1250.00 On the other hand a break out form 1250 will see an opening of 1315.00 Time will tell if gold is still in decline or has broken out. For the time being it remains in down trend. It appears less likely that we will see prices dropping below 1130.00 but as usual I can be wrong.

    I hope you enjoyed my RAGU Sauce analysis. Hopefully you will request the Mrs for one.


    Have a great trading week.

    SAGI.:rock:
     
    scofield, searcher and davycoppitt like this.

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