1. Weds am and metals are quiet after recent gains
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Good Weds Morning! We have Gold down 1.6 to 1211, while Silver is down 2 to 1712. Crude is off 72 to 5254. The USD is up 34 to 100.66 after recent losses.
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Week of 1/7/2017 Closing prices & Chg Over Last Wk---- Gold $1173.40-- UP 21.70 Silver $16.52-- UP 54 Oil $53.99 -- UP 27 TICS USD $102.21 -- DOWN 7 Based on near term futures contract--- At JMB Current price AGE 2017 $1243.95 (1), SAE $19.53 (20)
  4. Added Heartland Precious Metals out of OK and LA to the map, Added Texas Precious Metals, and Added Provident Metals.

URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by SAGI, May 1, 2013.



  1. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    Not much happening at present Coffee article is a serious slow walk in the park at the moment. CCJ at resistance waiting to see where it will go but likely to turn.

    SAGI
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  3. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Just a quick bump and hello to Sagi. Hope all is well.

    Uranium Resources is Set to Enter a New Era
    [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]By: Peter Spina, President, GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com & UraniumSeek.com[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] | Thursday, October 29 2015[/FONT] [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD][​IMG][/TD]
    [TD="width: 100%, align: left"][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Uranium Resources (URRE) is set to enter a new era now that a deal to merge with Anatolia Energy Ltd. has been overwhelmingly approved by both shareholder bases. The merger will give Uranium Resources control over the advanced-stage, low-cost Temrezli uranium project in Turkey and put the revamped company on a fast track to production. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Full Story[/FONT][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  4. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    Hello everyone.

    Its been a while and things are still quite slow. CCJ seems to be meandering between 12 and 14.50. A clear break above 14.50 and a retest of that support area will allow an entry. Until then I am twiddleing my thumbs. Have not been able to complete the coffee article as yet but will do so as soon as I have a clear agenda.

    Thank you for your support.

    SAGI
     
    searcher and davycoppitt like this.
  5. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  6. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    Happy new year folks!
    First of all .......Coffee with carrot head will be back in the next few weeks.
    I know that I have been away for more than 6 months but I fully intend to continue with the thread despite various personal issues that disturbed our regular banter.

    I ask all readers to forgive me for the extended break which should not have happened however I sincerely believe that we will move on recoup and gain strength in the future.
    My sincere thanks to Sir Searcher for keeping the thread going as well as all the other contributors without all of you this thread would have been buried a long time ago.

    I thank for your patience and your faith in me. I am sure many will have said a prayer for me and it is these prayers and wishes that kept me going.

    I should be able to,put up an article within three weeks if not sooner so please do keep a look out for it. I do indeed have a lot of catching up to do.

    Thanking you.

    SAGI
     
    ^updated^ and searcher like this.
  7. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Just a little bump.............

    3 Athabasca Basin Uranium Companies Outline 2016 Plans
    http://u3o8.biz/s/MarketCommentary....ca-Basin-Uranium-Companies-Outline-2016-Plans

    Nuclear Power in BRIC Countries 2015-2019
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nuclear-power-in-bric-countries-2015-2019-300201330.html

    As The World Warms To Nuclear Power, The Outlook For Uranium Is Up
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco...et-reflecting-the-worldview-on-nuclear-power/

    World starts up 10, shuts down eight, nuclear reactors in 2015
    http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/N...wn-eight-nuclear-reactors-in-2015-411601.html
     
  8. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  9. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!

    THE THING ABOUT NUMBERS! TO FIB OR NOT TO FIB THAT IS THE QUESTION!


    Its been some six months since the last coffee we had together. For personal reasons I would at present not like to get into I found that I was not in a position to write any of the regular articles. On the up side of this; We have not really moved anywhere in 6 months. The three old men are still sitting on that park bench wearing the same clothes and nothing has moved. Uranium still languishes at the bottom as is gold and silver and every other commodity. (Few exceptions). The last six months may have a silver lining. They have allowed me to rethink many of the issues and theories that I have written about in the past. I still believe that this era is no longer about investment. That the scenarios change too often and too quick to allow one to make investments. Since the market is dynamic, unpredictable we require to change with it and ride these waves as they occur. So how do we actually predict the markets? My understanding is that you do not.

    Before I go there I made an interesting observation. Just talk to a few friends and see what they say about the following; At what point of battery life of your cel phone do you recharge it?

    Do you recharge it at;

    100%, 60%, 50%, 40%, , 20%, 10% or 0%

    It a simple experiment. Please ask family members and friends to participate. I observed that I often have an irritation at 78%, am uncomfortable at 50% , really irritated by 30% and finally know its about to die at10%. These are all points where I put my phone for recharging; Do you do the same?

    More on this later.

    Moving back to our topic of the markets. Nothing is as it seems. First of all the term “Markets”, is mistaken for the real markets. The markets referred to as the stock markets or currency markets are what we would term as paper markets. Very few if any purchase a real commodity on these markets and one simply play the game of “pass the parcel”, I have mentioned this in the past, but readers need reminding. Every player in these markets is simply making or loosing money on a difference between the rate at which they purchased and the rate at which they sell the paper representative of the underlying commodity. It is therefore naïve for anyone to consider that they are purchasing anything at all but a simple paper representative. In fact one is simply playing Monopoly on a grand scale with hundreds of paper representatives. Imagine that instead of the usual 40 odd properties you have hundreds if not thousands of properties and instead of five or 6 players you have millions of players. First it’s impossible to play all the markets. Second; no matter what your personal thinking is you cannot predict the sentiment of the markets. The sentiment has absolutely nothing to do with the underlying stock. Stocks may be healthy and highly profitable in the longer term but sentiment can turn healthy stocks into junk stocks and since these stocks have borrowed money from the markets they can be crushed on a huge scale. A warrior may be the largest fellow on the battle field but he can be crushed by ants due to sheer numbers. While an ant alone is no match, a million of the ants will leave bones on the battle field. It is therefore prudent to go with the mass. This is why we follow the trends. Since we cannot predict the markets we simply follow them. Up or down or sideways. If the markets are dropping there is no such thing as a bottom. In theory at least they can plummet to a zero level. If the markets are down we require being on the down side and if they are up we predict the up side. There is no genius thinking here and there is no astro predictor here. There are only statistics and the likely hood of an event occurring at certain levels. So how can we tell what levels are reversal or a move up is going to occur?


    The key word here to consider is “sentiment”. Here is an example where gold currently trading at 1090 is important. I asked a number of people and take that as a sample of sentiment. Even at 1050 there were few if any people actually buying physical gold. To most it is unimportant. It makes no sense and no matter how much one harps about gold its inherent value is simply based on sentiment. Nothing more nothing less. Sentiment is fear and elation. Nothing more nothing less! When hundreds of millions of people cannot see its value we must assume even if the case is illogical that the demand or interest will continue to dwindle and therefore price will fall. Sentiment can make price askew of normal logical expectation. Oil prices at above 100 dollars were considered too high and yet the paper price took on a new life and took it all the way to nearly 150.00.. Why? There was no logical reason for this. It wasn’t that we ran out of oil suddenly or that they had found some remarkable ingredient hosted in oil such as dark matter that made it infinitely more precious and that suddenly oil was going to be the most valued energy able to take us into time travel or hyper space…… Most people I asked appeared to think of one common number …950.00 It appears that 950 whether real or not is the number seemed to have people fixated with. So I looked up the fib levels set out the Fib tool and ..low and behold the price of 954 falls into the important level of 61.8 retracement. So one has to ask themselves how in all of havens clouds did a mass of people pick a price and that price sits in right at one of the most important retracement levels?

    The only reason oil went up was the factor of greed! Sentiment had people into oil and then we had comfort set in that we were on trend and finally we had panic set in where the last lot that had been waiting for a reversal thought oil was going to go to 200 dollars and could make some profit and therefore the “pass the parcel” took on an energetic volume playing until no one wanted the parcel and the music stopped. We had all the stop losses hit every single trader that took the trade at around the 140.00 mark going long got taken out eventually on the downside. Every trader who went short in that same area also got taken out because the big boys pushed the price higher knowing where all the short Stop losses were placed.

    Now the reverse is occurring everyone is selling oil suddenly oil is no longer valued demand has dwindled to nothing. Everyone suddenly stopped using their cars and got on their bicycles and went to work. They have now stopped using transportation and demand is dwindling to absolute nothing. They have found an alternative energy which allows us to use water as energy which provides 500% more return on output. We have found a way to make a nuclear fuel cell that will fit in a signet ring and power our cars…… Sentiment!

    The underlying truth is that the game of paper is what moves oil or any other commodity’s price and not its true underlying demand/price. The truth is we do not need to discuss the true value of any commodity but discuss the true value of sentiment. If we can get that straight or get our heads around that logic we should be all right. We really do not need to know what the true value of gold is. We need to know what the sentiment value of gold is or any other instrument or paper commodity. If you do not agree then you need to be out of this market and go to the nearest gold/oil/wheat or any other commodity shop and buy the physical stuff and store it. Then forget about it and use it when there is a true physical emergency…in these markets we buy and sell dreams, fear, elation and every other sin and emotion the bible and every other holy book tells us about.

    Consider Uranium briefly; We know the fundamentals are strong we know production has dropped, we know there is some excess stock out there, we know that many smaller companies have broken down or shut down or gone on maintenance. We know which deposits are out there and which ones are cheap or expensive. We also know that the cheapest cost uranium is produced by Cameco. We know they have some of the largest deposits in the world and we also know they are the most profitable…..We also know that countries continue to plan and construct new nuclear power plants and projections are far into the future………..those are the fundamentals.

    Now here is the sentiment….We know Fukushima went bang in a Tsunami. Can we predict them? Can we categorically state that every Tsunami is going to take out power plants? We know earthquakes happen but all it took was one power plant going down and our little house of cards collapsed. Now here is the clincher. If you were “an investor” you were taken to the cleaners and if you were trading then you got out because you had stop losses in place or you simply reversed your position. It did not matter which way Uranium was going as long as you were a trader, you were on the right side of the trend. Traders simply jump onto the band wagon when they see it. They really have no intention of staying on it either. They get off when they are in profit or when the trend changes. Oil is down so is uranium and the two are correlated somehow. They both go down together and go up together. Neither demand will make the difference to the physical supply or demand. Only sentiment.

    So how does one measure sentiment? Most traders use price action to gauge sentiment. Higher highs, higher lows, Lower highs and lower lows. The first sentiment trader to make a success out of this was probably Jesse Livermoore. Traders place support lines and resistance lines, they use past historical supports and resistance to decide which way the markets are going. If they broke support or resistance did that line role reverse so support became resistance that told them prices were moving further down or the reverse occurred than prices were moving further up.

    All around us trends develop. In fashion, in cars, technology and everything else. Suddenly we want to be thin, then we suddenly do not want bulimia we want to be plump, then we want to exercise and then suddenly we want to diet. We are berated by adverts and news of all sorts and our trends change.

    Its not time for Uranium according to Sentiment. Its not time for gold or silver or any other commodity. In another year maybe two may begin to move up but the truth is that it will move up when sentiment changes.

    Cameco is great but, how may this appeal to us?

    As an investment or a sentiment trade?

    At 28 dollars the returns are small we consider getting in and getting out. Traders get in for the difference of a few cents to a few dollars. 1% to 5%. Turn this around five times or 10 times a week and we have a return on money invested of anywhere between 20% to 50%. So when does Cameco become investment material? Once more consider risk. If you saw Cameco at 60 dollars and then ten years later you see at 60 cents you kind of think that as an investment proposition provided the company is healthy. You considered buying 1000 shares at 60 dollars now 1000 shares cost you 600 dollars. Your risk level has dropped drastically. Now you are willing to loose 600 dollars. Thinking those prices could come back in another 10 years. You have your research and you factor all the fundamentals in. At 60 cents its worth a try. Is it worth placing your 60 thousand dollars at risk? No! Certainly not but you could place 1 tenth of your initial proposed investment in and at every level where support sup/res changed and confirmations came in that the trend has changed you can go in. I call this the piggy back trade where the first of ten trades goes into profit, you bring it to par and enter the second trade on a correction back to support.(Note the correction has to fall back to previous resistance turned support for the second trade to go on.) This will allow as many trades as the trend can take in terms of corrections and the time frame being used. This can be done on everything from Stocks to currencies to commodities. Finally the issue regarding exit. Exits occur on a simple premise. When a new high occurs but is not followed through but confirmed with a new low. This is the danger this requires that a lower low and a lower high have to follow either a pin bar or consolidation telling you that buyer or sellers are exhausted in the ongoing trend. Exit is taken either in steps or all of the trades are exited.

    Therefore as price increases it increases sentiment trading and as price decreases it becomes an investment buy based on company health and fundamentals. When Buffet invested, prices were low, fundamentals were good, company health was good and the ROI was considered a better probability. Risk was acceptable. This is especially true for raw materials that are utilised and better still not re- usable. Oil is a great commodity. Once used it cannot be returned. There is still plenty of it and barring the oil sands and fracking fraternity most companies are reasonably in good financial health. Cars go hybrid but oil still gets consumed and used cars go to other people who could not afford them before so demand remains constant or higher at least for the short and middle term. No alternative energy in sight yet to replace it and nothing that provides a remarkable fluidity and frictionless movement as it does. The cheaper the cost of taking it out of the ground the better! Producers rather than explorers. They are cheap so stick with them.

    Same with fundamentals of uranium only one company to invest in! You guessed it…Cameco. It’s a no brainer. Note the word invest. We suddenly turned from trading to investing. If Cameco drops to 6 dollars consider placing a good amount of dollars in it that in 20 years or thirty years will provide a significant return on your INVESTMENT. Enough to keep you comfortable. Same with oil. Its not out of fashion yet. The fat lady is not singing!

    Lithium is the same another turn or new possibility! There will be some good trades out there and now suddenly the world seems to realise that Solar is not the universal solution to our energy needs. We simply do not have the technology to manufacture solar cells that will remain efficient for longer periods of time enough to make them sustainable energy investments. That in itself is not a bad thing as, if the world decides to continue demanding these products the companies manufacturing them will have good turnovers.

    Lithium may be the new kid on the block as is the possibility of Graphene and all the rest but all this will take time. Nothing is confirmed as yet so it is simply products that I suggest we keep an eye on.

    This year has begun with a reflection of the markets sentiment based on the decline of the far east markets placing pressure on the US and European markets. Again this is sentiment, that can sometimes reflect reality or projections of possible real scenarios. A single large wave is not the conclusion of a forthcoming storm. We must wait to see if all of this is confirmed and therefore remain resolute to be outside the markets for the time being. Drops in markets in January often (though not always) lead to the entire year going down. Therefore they may eventually close below the opening of the year.

    Sentiment is key in today’s markets and not fundamentals. Sentiment is not difficult to understand through charts and price action and one of the key tools many traders use is the Fibonacci retracement. Use dint he right way it provides key turning points of the price of all units whether they are currencies, stocks or commodities. The tool used in combination with support and resistance areas provides a fairly accurate measurement. I have bene reading up and practicing this but I must emphasise the most effective method before you go and trade is to understand the charts. Every single pattern provides the reader with information of where turn arounds occur. Once the support and resistance lines are properly placed they continue to provide reversals or rejections or breakouts and reversing roles. Understand this and one gets a fairly accurate picture of what is going on in the markets. One does not require the news to anticipate the markets. The price action says it all. Where there is positive anticipation or negative anticipation of where the price is going even before the news. Those that are sensitive watch for certain patters which provide an accurate indication of whether the market will continue in the direction it was going or if it us undecided or if it ready to reverse. The smaller the time frame the less accurate the analysis becomes. (Reference to futures markets).

    Going back to those numbers I will assume you did the little experiment mentioned above. If you have done it you will notice that most people actually do get near to those numbers. Some will be quirky but more importantly those numbers are very near to Fibonacci numbers.

    Humans tend to as well as all creatures of nature including nature itself connects up to Fibonacci related numbers. The petals in a flower the veins in a leaf the list is endless. You probably figured out where I am going with this but I recently decided to erase all my charts. Stocks, currencies, commodities the whole lot! Every single past chart was removed and binned. I then began a new lot.

    Here is how I do it; I get a plain and simple candlestick chart. This chart has no indicators; No moving average lines or anything else.

    I usually zoom out on the Monthly chart and place the very top resistance line and the very bottom Support line I can find. Next I try to find all other support and resistance lines that are major. Nothing complicated just a simply eye balling the chart and looking at the areas of congestion that occur. These lines intersect with a lot of times in the past where similar congestions or reversal have occurred. They provide good probability areas of reversals and that is what we are looking for. I use the top down approach on these and for each time frame I use a different color of lines. For example on the monthly I will use Orange, Weekly Blue, daily green etc. It really does not matter what colour but provides simple clarity. I n this way even if I am looking at a 15 min chart I can see if its hitting a major monthly support or resistance area and that tells me if a huge long term move is imminent. If the colour is for a 15 min chart then I know that the probability of a large move is less etc.

    The next thing to do is simply eye ball it again zooming out and see which way the trend is. Once I know this I make a note and will never counter trend. Once I have my support and resistance lines on the various time frames I go back to the monthly and using the Fibonacci retracement tool, (available on most charting software) I will do a top to bottom or bottom to top- tip to tip, which gives me lines which I may have missed and will put in the major ones only. Key reversal lines are 0.618, 0.5, 0.38, 0.23 all these will appear automatically or can be added in the options section. That being done I will do that for all TF up to the 1H or 30 mins. Depending on your own nature and type of trading you might want to add them in on even the 5M but it really does get confusing so I refrain from doing that.

    This alone can provide key reversal or continuation points that allow me to take entries or exits. Using this method I really am trading peoples nature rather than the actual price or inherent value. If you are wondering where I learnt all this….Its where everyone else learnt it through various books, tutorials and a whole host of videos. Through fifteen years of active trading using technicals I finally came to the conclusion that simple is more effective and counter trending is a bad idea until you really know what are doing or are sensitive to the price action at the time. The risk however is far greater.

    We will continue with this subject at another time but for now practice the above and keenly observe the nature of price discuss it and ask question if you are not clear.

    The one chart I have had a great deal of trouble with is gold. One thing is for certain that we should see a reversal soon. I had my predictions last year that we could see a push up from December 2015 to around March. I believe we still have a little way to go down. We still require to see some support forming after such a long down trend. Whether this will occur or not within the coming three months is anyone’s guess. My analysis indicates that 1135 is a good area to attain and reverse back and drop to 1015.00.- 950.00 is not impossible to achieve. There are a lot of “if and then” statements so we will wait to see where this will finally end up. All of this is based on Fibs.

    If you are looking at stocks or any other commodity, Fibonacci tools used in the correct manner do provide an accurate reading of reversals and patterns and that is all there is to reading charts. In the coming months we will go through a few charts and see if we can analyse them simply but effectively to show where the reversal occur and see if Fibs coincides with them. I will let you choose the charts you want to analyse. The higher the traded volume the better. Lower traded stocks are too erratic.

    For the whole of last year we saw the great British pound drop against the dollar. My prediction based on a weekly chart is that we have a good chance to see 1.3950 reached against the dollar perhaps even 1.3850 before a reversal takes us this year or the next back to 1.67 against the dollar. A reversal is possible around the 1.55 mark. If however the pound finds support at its current price we could see if move higher to retest 1.46 to 1.47. A reversal and another attempt may take place but again we can only speculate and that in itself is risky and dangerous.

    Oil looks like it has reached a bottom and should come back to 57 dollars where we may see some resistance occurring. For those considering oil; the stocks (keep away from oil sands and Fracking) especially of the more profitable ones are worth considering now.

    I would advise to stay away from Uranium for the time being as well as alternative energy stocks. I will focus on them in the coming months.

    I have yet to analyse the stock markets and its recent declines. Perhaps we can go over these together to see where a good entry might be. The year has just begin the S&P has yet to break its new highs and for a trader it again does not really matter as long as they are with the trend. As long as the trend is down (and it is) it is advisable to look for corrections that allow short entries.

    I leave you with a chart of gold for a short term trend lets see if it works out. Again it looks complicated but in reality its not. I have used two Fibonnaci tools one is the retracement and the other is an extension. This has provided a projection of where price might go. Its not accurate by any means but prices should reach support and resistance to actually make the triangles viable. The tips provide turning points and we are in the middle of one. The red line is kind of the line in the sand but the thicker blue line is a natural resistance so we may see price rise to that area and is a good area to short Gold. Taking it down to the area I have predicted which is around the 1010-1015 area. Hmm ….


    I have been out of the markets for over six months and it will take some time to get back into the rhythm of things. Coffee is back. Albeit less sweet perhaps but non the less its back.


    Have a greet week

    Sagi.
     

    Attached Files:

    Curtman and searcher like this.
  10. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    COFFEE WITH CARROT HEAD!


    Structures everywhere.


    Good Morning! A cold morning in London wet and dreary but I dare say not as bad as those north American brethren. I honestly do not mind the cold but the wetness and dampness does affect my bones now. Still onwards till our limbs fall off. Lets get that coffee brewing and add a little bit of our favourite tipple. While our Australian and African brethren chill out with their beers.

    Its been a hectic week with the currencies and equities as well as commodities. We had the Non farm payrolls report come out on Friday which was not bad as reports go and the dollar should have shot up but we note that price action is based around sentiment and instead the basket of currencies shot up letting the dollar down a little. We also saw Gold shoot up not just a little but way past my expectation however the triangle is not yet negated but is getting pretty close to being negated.

    Cameco’s quarterly report showed losses and yet again sentiment won the day with prices rising for the stock. The resistance to price is around 14.50 and a break through that region will see more resistance at around 15 dollars and a break past that we should see 17 dollars. In between before all that we have 13.50-13.75. I am no genius and anything I say can be observed by the newest newbie on the block. Just simple common sense.

    It also makes sense to consider the financial health of any company on the stock market. The problem is sentiment can wipe out a company. It does not mean the company is in bad health just that sentiment has worked against it and its creditors have no faith in it which is why market makers take no interest in penny stocks. They die and rise based on a couple of thousand investors. Companies such as Paladin resources suffer too once traded at its height at 10 dollars it now sits on pennies with confidence in it only by its largest stock holders.

    Common sense dictates that currently all stocks are taking a beating and therefore makes sense to stay out of the markets. Right now it makes sense to concentrate on gold stocks. We see sudden rises based on fear at present in equity stocks and loads of newsletter writers are calling in on the end of equities. The sensible thing to do is look left and see where there is support. Wait for prices to come back to support areas. Support or resistance is where prices have either bounced off, going bullish or bearish. It’s a common sense way of trading with the trend.

    Oil is not dropping currently below its previous low. This leads me to believe that price will move up if it continues to bounce off support. Really? No one tell if the trend is really over. So stay out of it. I am not a genius and even if I was I would certainly not be able to tell when a million traders are going to turn. Common sense dictates wait for it to turn confirm it has turned and then go into it.

    I want to talk about structure a little bit that most people do not focus on. Without structure one cannot finite anything. Buildings plants literally anything of growth has some sort of structure and graphs or price charts are no different. It is amazing how we tend to use indicators but give no consideration to structure. Below is a chart of Paladin for two years. In it there are three lines, the diagonal shows that the trend is down.

    Seems obvious but so many people will ignore this and think they are getting something cheap at an ultra low price and buy it never considering that it could well go to a big fat zero. So the first thing to note is the trend; If the trend is down its down! There are no arguments for this. As a trader this becomes a short.

    Next thing I want readers to observe is the first horizontal line on the top. Notice how the price keeps bouncing off this line, but at the same time notice how the price bounces off the diagonal line lower and lower. Two things can occur from here as this range gets narrower and narrower. Either the price bounce up breaks recent previous highs or breaks down breaking previous lows. This is when a trader enters the market. For six months he has been sitting on the side lines waiting for this to occur. Or has been shorting the stock from the diagonal line as the trend is down. He will not consider going long at all.

    I turned from investor to trader just two years ago. I used to think differently considering fundamentals but the truth is there are no reasons to consider fundamentals because we simply do not have the mass behind us. Our fundamentals are only proven right when sentiment changes and price says it all. The third line at the bottom shows where the price keeps bouncing off. Now most are thinking I will get into it when it gets down there where as most of the traders are thinking I am going to short this when it bounces off the diagonal or the base line (resistance line where two peaks have occurred. Unless the trend has changed price action will show that the shorts will have the day.

    One can also trade penny stocks. However in this case one has to consider volume as an indicator. A jump in huge volumes is a good indicator that price is going to move up. Once more create a structure. Draw in a resistance line where price has bounced off and place a pending order a couple of cents above the highest one. And you are sure to see a big move.

    This volume indicator can be a good way to get in especially if the volume move is huge but the price has not moved especially for stocks like Cameco.

    Here is another example ABX or Barrick gold price drops down now look at the second pic. In it you notice there are two boxes around the volume area where the volume was very low, suddenly we see volume rise dramatically even though price continued to go down. Price continued to move down because sellers were still in the markets but volume increased because there was a great increase in buyers coming into the market.

    This increase is an indicator that things are about to change. So we wait to see these volume spikes which give an indication that things are changing. Traders would get in on the first break out from the lowest green line and begin to take profit at the second green line waiting to see if it will break past. If it did then they would leave partial trades open and take out profit at the second or third green levels if it bounces back. The same traders will turn into sellers knowing that the bounce may take them back to lows.

    Profit has to have a common denomination. A common factor which shows profit or loss and that is money so traders come back into that and play the game again and again. There is one key fundamental difference between traders and investors or the small retailer. Traders do not care if the trade is going up or down they only care that they are aware of fluctuation in the market, a range or a trend. Which ever it is the difference will make them money. Despite everything we are looking for a trend.

    We think Uranium is going to move up and the lead indicator is Cameco. We know that now every single Uranium buff, Retailer, institutional buyer, and commercials are keeping an eye on it. If it jumps we know something is going to happen. If volume jumps something is going to happen. Keep an eye on it daily, watch the volumes.

    This week we see the pound dropping a little and late on Friday it had an unusual bounce against the dollar. I still think considering the trend it will find support below 1.40 at roughly between 1.3950 to 1.3820.

    Gold is unusual and I cannot look at its chart to judge however that is not necessarily the only way to gauge gold price. GLD is a good way to consider gold price and we should see some correction in the price but I think it has gone too far now for a complete reversal but there is a chance that it may retest previous structure. Looking at both the price of GLD and Gold together it gives me a good indication that the price of gold is going to drop from its last high. Further to that I am also going to go ahead and predict that the price will drop further based on weekly charts. I cannot be sure that the bottom has occurred.

    If the price drops but does not drop below 1177.00 and bounces off we have a chance but if it comes back up does not surpass last high of 1269 then we are in limbo. In the longer run I do think it will drop, but in order for that to occur the markets have to rally. If it however does not rally we could be eye balling 1020.00 or somewhere in that area. All of this is based around structure. Just eye ball the weekly chart of Gold and look at the RSI every time its been over bought it has reversed. It has not done that on many occasions but this time we are on it and Gold has been overbought on the RSI so ideally it should reverse from here. Next look at structure where is the price bouncing from often. That’s the 0.618 fib level, a key reversal area. Go from low to high and you will see the 0.618 meets structure on the left if oyu have the FIB tool available.

    Traders will be shorting gold from this area. Next few weeks will be interesting. Further to that we got to the Chinese new year where gold often bounces. I also said a long while back that we were in a descending triangle that may break out anywhere between October and April of this year. I do not think that is complete as yet and it appears to be going lower.

    Structure is everywhere in our lives where there is no structure there is no progress. A tree cannot grow large without a founding structure and its girth. Humans who have no structure grow weak. Flowers cannot hold up without structure and therefore the very nature of humans define the structure in the markets. Look for structure and you will be enlightened with the key turning points. Sometimes growth sprouts do occur. Anomalies that lead to still turning points. A break in structure means a change. Look for these broad patterns read up on them and learn them.

    I have found the resistance and Support areas are key areas that one must learn to recognise and it really does not matter whether it’s a stock chart or a currency chart, patterns remain the same.


    This week I have been more technical than usual and I hope I will be forgiven.


    Have a great weekend. Happy trading!

    SAGI
     

    Attached Files:

    searcher likes this.
  11. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    2,314
    Likes Received:
    1,992
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Energy Extraction
    Location:
    Coal Country
    I don't think it has produced any type of uranium for a while but I figured this is an appropriate thread.

    http://www.chillicothegazette.com/story/news/local/2016/02/19/centrifuge-plant-shut-down/80629116/

    PIKETON - Efforts to find another use for the American Centrifuge plant have been unsuccessful and work will begin to shut down the facility with the first round of layoffs coming the week of Feb. 29.

    Centrus Energy announced late Friday afternoon that it will be demobilizing the American Centrifuge in Piketon, but plans to preserve options for the future by maintaining its construction and operating license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a commercial plant. The company will continue working on the centrifuge technology at what it called its state-of-the-art research and testing facilities in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, after the U.S. Department of Energy decided at the end of September to de-fund the Piketon operation.

    Since that decision was made, Centrus Energy has been funding operations itself while both attempting to get a change of heart from DOE and working with members of the Ohio congressional delegation in looking for possible alternative uses for the facility in order to preserve the workforce there.

    "We believe that the United States must remain a global leader in uranium enrichment technology, and the work of our team at Piketon has made enormous contributions to that effort," said Daniel Poneman, Centrus president and CEO. "This is a painful day for our employees, families, friends and colleagues, but all should be proud of the great work of our Piketon team. They have met every milestone in this project, which they completed on time and under budget. We will do all that we can to facilitate their transition to new opportunities."

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory in September extended its contract with Centrus to continue research and testing activities in Oak Ridge through September of this year. With the decision to demobilize the Piketon plant, the company will take on costs associated with decontamination and decommissioning the facility.

    Centrus communications manager Jeremy Derryberry said an all-hands meeting was conducted with employees Friday informing them of the decision, although those who are part of the first round of layoffs had been made aware of the possibility originally through Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices sent out in mid-November. Those employees will begin leaving the week of Feb. 29 and will be paid through March 4.

    Following their departure, there will be about 150 employees left on site to work on the decontamination and decommissioning of the facility, which Derryberry said is expected to take eight to 12 months. Most of that work should be completed by the end of September, which is when the majority of the remaining layoffs will take place, with some employees kept on to maintain the facility and keep it secure for possible future use.

    The company did what it could to find another use for the facility, Derryberry added.

    "We looked at a variety of possible applications for the cascade, but none were going to have the funding available at a level or time frame that would have allowed us to continue running it," he said.

    Reaction from members of Ohio's Congressional delegation was swift. Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown said he's not ready to give up the fight.

    "It’s unacceptable that leadership in Congress and the Department of Energy chose to turn their backs on these workers who have advanced our national security, and ignored our repeated calls to find a solution,” Brown said.“But I can promise these layoffs are not the end of this fight. The families in this community deserve a long-term solution that secures jobs in the area and supports southern Ohio’s economy and I’ll continue to work with the Piketon community to find a long-term solution worthy of these workers.”

    Fellow U.S. senator, Republican Rob Portman, reiterated his position that the Obama administration has failed Centrifuge employees and his criticism of what he feels is the administration's permissive approach to enrichment with Iran.

    "I find it particularly troubling that on the heels of the administration's Iran deal that recognizes Iran's right to enrich, conduct research and maintain access to more than 6,000 centrifuges, it is also shutting down centrifuges and laying off workers at our only American-owned enrichment capability," Portman said. "I will continue to work with local officials to help the workers in Piketon who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own."

    U.S. Rep. Brad Wenstrup, a Republican whose district includes Pike County, also cited national security concerns and the impact to the skilled workforce in Pike and surrounding counties.

    “This move abandons critical human capital in Southern Ohio," Wenstrup said. "We cannot just put these American workers into cold storage until we need them again — they will understandably look for other work, and their skill and capabilities critical to our enrichment program will be lost.”

    Centrus said the cessation of the American Centrifuge activities will not affect the company's commercial fuel business or its delivery to utility customers. Most of the company's revenue comes from sale of uranium and enriched uranium that is used as fuel for nuclear power plants around the world.
     
  12. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  13. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  14. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  15. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    Another week in doldrum....
    I am afraid I have not had the time to write another article for the present suffice to add that I am lacking motivation and perhaps a little lack of zen and inspiration. Uranium continues to sit on the side lines

    SAGI
     
    Hystckndle likes this.
  16. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    2,314
    Likes Received:
    1,992
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Energy Extraction
    Location:
    Coal Country
  17. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
  18. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Just a little bump.................

    How To Profit From Uranium’s Coming Bull Market
    http://www.investing.com/analysis/how-to-profit-from-uranium’s-coming-bull-market-200131330

    Nuclear power is the answer to growing energy demands, forum hears
    http://www.thenational.ae/uae/nuclear-power-is-the-answer-to-growing-energy-demands-forum-hears

    Policymakers Should Take Steps to Keep America’s Nuclear Plants Running
    https://morningconsult.com/opinions/policymakers-take-steps-keep-americas-nuclear-plants-running/
     
  19. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  20. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Uranium Prices Set To Double By 2018

    [​IMG]

    With prices set to double by 2018, we’ve seen the bottom of the uranium market, and the negative sentiment that has followed this resource around despite strong fundamentals, is starting to change.

    Billionaire investors sense it, and they’re always the first to anticipate change and take advantage of the rally before it becomes a reality. The turning point is where all the money is made, and there are plenty of indications that the uranium recovery is already underway.

    It’s been a very tough few years for uranium. But it now looks like we’ve reached the bottom, and the future demand equation says there’s nowhere to go but up—significantly up.

    Uranium analyst David Talbot of Dundee Capital Markets is forecasting 6 percent compound annual demand growth through 2020, which is enough, he says, to “kick-start” uranium prices up to and beyond 2007 levels. Morningstar analyst David Wang predicts prices will double within the next two years.

    Mining Weekly expects “the period from 2017-2020 to be a landmark period for the nuclear sector and uranium stocks, as the global operating nuclear reactor fleet expands.”

    “It’s impossible to find another natural resource that is so fundamentally necessary and yet has carried such negative sentiment as uranium. The market has been skewed by negative sentiments that ignore the supply and demand fundamentals,” says Paul D. Gray, President and CEO of Zadar Ventures Ltd., a North American uranium and lithium explorer.

    But the toxicity levels have dissipated, and nuclear energy is rebounding as a cleaner power source with next generation safeguards. The fundamentals are again ruling the day, and this will be the key year for uranium,” Gray told Oilprice.com.

    Read the full article here: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Uranium-Prices-Set-To-Double-By-2018.html
     
    OverOver likes this.
  21. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Just a little bump. Take it fwiw.................

    Fission 3.0 - Canada's Leading Uranium Project Generator is Making Moves! ! !
    Proven And Probable



    Published on Aug 12, 2016
    Fission 3.0, Chief Geologist Ross McElroy highlights to investors the merits of owning 'Canada's Leading Uranium Project Generator'! Mr. McElroy discusses virtues of being a Project Generator, and how Fission 3.0 derisk's their projects through Joint Ventures and uses other companies capital to facilitate ongoing exploration to advance projects. Additionally, Mr. McElroy shares with investors some exciting projects that not exclusive to the Athabasca region of Canada, but their most recent developments in the Macusani Plateau of Peru, which is believed to have not only Uranium but also anomalous Lithium! To get additional information visit www.fission3corp.com.
     
  22. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  23. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2016
  24. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  25. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2010
    Messages:
    2,314
    Likes Received:
    1,992
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Energy Extraction
    Location:
    Coal Country
  26. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,461
    Likes Received:
    752
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investor/trader in metals equities
    Location:
    London UK
    Good day Folks.
    I appologise for not being around but personal issues are really dogging me and therefore find it difficult to concentrate on writing articles.
    Sir Searcher I am grateful to you and other members who have kept the thread floating. I assure you that I am not far in mind and thought from the site and thread and will eventually return to write articles.
    If you have questions please do not hesitate to PM me thanks.

    SAGI
     
    searcher likes this.
  27. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  28. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  29. jelly

    jelly Seeker Seeker

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2010
    Messages:
    368
    Likes Received:
    216
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Hope all is well, Sagi.
     
  30. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Uranium Week: Fleeting Hope
    http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=291D99D9-B638-EF26-67C9DA3D12A28B46

    Uranium Energy Reports No Annual Profit (UEC)
    http://www.investopedia.com/news/uranium-energy-reports-no-annual-profit-uec/

    Paladin lifts Q3 uranium output as Langer Heinrich output rises, costs fall
    http://www.miningweekly.com/article...r-heinrich-output-rises-costs-fall-2016-10-18

    Japanese anti-nuclear candidate wins election at site of world's biggest atomic power station
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-site-of-worlds-biggest-atomic-power-station

    Forum Uranium Intersects 87 ppm Uranium at Its 100% Owned Karpinka Property South of the Key Lake Mine, Athabasca Basin, Saskatchewan
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/forum-uranium-intersects-87-ppm-131000935.html
     
  31. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  32. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
    World Nuclear Energy in 2016 and plans through 2050
    http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/10/world-nuclear-energy-in-2016-and-plans.html

    Why Nuclear Energy Might Be The World’s Last Hope
    http://themarketmogul.com/why-nuclear-energy-might-be-the-worlds-last-hope/

    Distrust of nuclear energy not helping to solve environmental problems in Russia
    http://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/nuclear-russia/2016-11-22191

    Russia not to limit uranium commercial supplies to US - Rosatom
    http://rbth.com/news/2016/10/30/russia-not-to-limit-uranium-commercial-supplies-to-us-rosatom_643471
     
  33. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  34. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113
  35. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    841
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    URA etf

    BULLISH
     
  36. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    841
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass

    Outstanding post.


    I searched this forum a couple of months back. Nickel coin/copper related threads were from 2011. Also, google searches, everyone and their mother speculating on possibilities with anything related to copper.

    [​IMG]


    I look at parsed data from Kitco silver forum for posting activity around silver. Guess when everyone and their mother was interested in buying?

    [​IMG]




    What happens after both situations, once everyone becomes interested? The rug gets pulled.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2016
  37. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    841
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Now have a look at copper. I posted this chart Back in mid october and said it was bottoming. The 16th of October to be exact:

    [​IMG]
    Against human nature, this is when I start taking note.

    What happened since?


    [​IMG]


    I can look up/quote a post on this forum where I stated that ABX was a buy in Sept 2016, the day before it dropped below $6 and then reversed, ultimately to $23.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2016
  38. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    841
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    I'm getting to a point that relates to this thread....



    [​IMG]


     
  39. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,848
    Likes Received:
    841
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Bluegrass
    Now I'm not suggesting that someone will get rich quick, but I am speculating there's a chance to pick the bottom, with great upside in a long term account. ETF with $12 x 12 potential?

    I started nibbling here in the $12 range.


    Hopefully SAGI has time to weigh in. I had never looked at Uranium until a few days ago. I only see the chart + sentiment

    DYODD
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2016
  40. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    96,591
    Likes Received:
    33,020
    Trophy Points:
    113

Share This Page