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URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

Discussion in 'PM Trading/Stocks/Technical Analysis' started by SAGI, May 1, 2013.



  1. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Coffee With Carrot head!

    The perfect shot.





    Good Morning! It has been nearly a year since I last wrote an article due to personal reasons. I unfortunately find myself in the middle of family crisis. (A divorce) that cannot be ignored and further to that I have had to deal with the death of my father recently. It is unfortunate but cannot stop life however our mind and body takes time to recover and I experience the same as everyone else does. Emotions play a vital role in our lives and many of our decisions are based on these.

    The coffee articles had become a regular, initially once a week and then later to perhaps one every two weeks. I intend to fully gear up to returning to the thread in the coming year but as it happens in the field of Uranium, nothing has really changed this year except to see Cameco taking unprecedented drops in price now languishing at around $8.50.

    We can merely speculate as to whether Uranium will make a turn around, but know the nature of things I assure you that Uranium has a vital role to play in the future of our world. We continue to foresee that uranium demand will return, however before that occurs politicians require to exhaust all other avenues available to them. On many occasions previously I stated that we only go for chemo therapy as a last option rather than the first when we suffer from cancer. People are literally allergic to change and therefore a radical idea that is considered dangerous in the first place takes last place on the list of options to take.

    I recently read an article on the technology of hydrogen trains and this year Germany is introducing hydrogen trains to their country. Britain on the other hand has opted to go the nuclear way and is clearing paths to add a couple of new nuclear power stations. Holland has preferred wind energy and continues to advocate it for the future supply of that country, while the middle east continues to look at the nuclear option with Dubai at the forefront having already begun construction and operation.

    There are two methods that individuals apply to trading and note the word trading rather than inferring investing. I have always been an advocate of trading rather than investing as I sincerely believe that the volatility and reaction to change comes too fast to continue to hold positions for decades. Trading; “in my opinion” is about holding a position from several months to several years.

    I am also a proponent of trend rather than being a contrarian trader. There are many advocates of trading that will disagree with trend trading methodologies but the logic is clear. If we are to go short a trend must settle in before we do that. I am also a proponent of support and resistance structures providing key areas where turnarounds occur.

    Over the years I began to reduce my dependence on technical indicators as I found many to have become redundant or inaccurate. I tried the ichimuku cloud, RSI, Stochastics, as I am sure many of you have too. Over the years I also found my self fascinated with currency futures rather than stocks.

    I also began to pay emphasis to money and risk management as far outweighing the direction any instrument took. I realised that if I were to make any money in the long run I had to have an edge in a game that is played by big players where my investment is comparable to a miniscule insect if not smaller and that required a reassessment of how to manage my investments to make them earn money.

    Over the last decade it has become abundantly clear that leaving your money in the bank will give little or no returns at all depending on where your money is kept and in what currency. Sweden Finland, Japan and Switzerland all now provide a negative interest rate and Britain provides a miniscule 0.5% return. Yet we choose to remain in cash or government bonds to allow us to survive and rightly so.

    If you do not know what you are doing in the world of stocks or currencies or bond trading or even option trading you need to sit back and think your strategy through.

    I assure you that I met more losers in this game than winners and even the winners have not had huge consistent success.

    I studied this phenomenon and considered the outcomes as one can take a trade two ways; Either you buy or you sell. It theoretically should be a 50% chance of a winner but the fact remains that there are more losers than winners and this brought me around to thinking that perhaps we were handicapping ourselves. That we believed indeed that the world was wrong and we were right.

    The question we need to ask ourselves is; “What does it matter whether the world is wrong or right” It is a force that we cannot push against as we cannot stop a Glacier sliding simply by placing our hands against its edge. It will not stop and neither will a mass movement of investment of the people of the earth. People run by emotions and nothing is more blatantly obvious than the people of Japan stating that Nuclear power should be stopped. No common sense, no sound reasoning, no practical profit will turn them away from this force of nature, because emotions can be a powerful force perhaps the greatest and to turn such a force around is not within our powers.

    Yet despite the obvious we humans persist with a single mindedness that; “We are right and they are wrong” that they will come to their senses sooner or later and all the wrong in the world shall be corrected. This is not the case for just Nuclear power or the pound or any stock that you thought of. One requires to be a keen observer of patterns and to be able to recognise them using the simplest of tools and the most obvious; “your eyes”. Eyeballing a chart tells you every thing. LOOK AT IT! Print a chart throw it on the floor and look at it. It tells you which way a stock currency commodity is going. A child can do that and yet we continue to believe that we can do a better job. There is a force in effect and the simple answer is; “do not go against the force.”

    I advice a lot of large scale investors now and the most consistent issue I have with them is their over large ego of actually having a greater intellect than the rest of the herd. I have seen so many egos deflate in the past two years that had I invested in deflated egos I would have been a billionaire.

    Recently shortly before the Brixit vote I advised various interested parties not to trade in which way the pound was going to go against the Euro, Yen and dollar. I advised them to remain out of the playing field as I knew that volatility was inevitable. Most listened and stood to the side a few played their hand and out of the roughly ten that invested one made it big. I asked the one winner what his reasons were to short the pound and he stated that he just eye balled the long term chart and saw that it was a down trend. He waited for an anomaly to occur and shorted the pound at 1.50 against the dollar and took a 50% return. Very few if any individuals will take that kind of risk and even fewer traders around the world will make 50% return on their currency trades. It was a ridiculous risk and I would never have advocated it. I do not for a moment consider such a venture as intelligent just pot luck that he based his decision on price action and a lack of a stop loss.(This trader does not use stop losses)

    We now stand at another precipice in terms of the US presidential elections and once more I have advocated investors to remain on the side line and wait for the outcome. With such a close call election anything could happen.

    In fact if you watch the USD against any major currency on the day it will tell you which way the presidential elections are going before the news does. While trading I never watch the news. News is “After the fact” . It is of no consequence in 99% of events. The price action almost invariably has factored in the news.

    There are some events that are not human created…I call them…”Act of God” events. Those are the only events that you should factor in on news. Those are the only events that someone somewhere was not aware of and it is the only kind of news that one is at level with everyone else. It includes Earthquakes Volcanoes and Tsunamis among others. I hate to think what would happen if Aliens actually landed on planet earth and declared we were conquered. I would say that would be the biggest run on GOLD.

    Speaking of GOLD …Despite the fact that this thread is about alternative energy I am still focused on Gold. It remains the main theme of this entire website and I respect that. I could say a lot in hindsight but that simply puts me in the same field as at least 500 other writers and I refuse to do this. I do not charge for reports nor do I profit from anything that I write and publish on the internet or other media. WYSIWYG is the term that applies here. What you see is what you get.

    A few months ago I did some technical analysis on Gold and came up with a bottom figure of between 850 dollars and 750 dollars. Based on the chart of gold, I used the weekly and monthly chart to see a cypher pattern formation which can indicate that Gold is not done with its move downwards.

    There are many that will disagree but we are discussing the long term outlook of gold and not the short daily or weekly trends rather we are considering the trend over a period of years. Which makes me a guru. (Really??? Seriously????) Predictions are not my forte, however one possibility out of a multitude is that Gold could reach a price of between USD 850 and USD 750. In that region it would be prudent for long term traders to consider buying gold. Next question will be; “when do you think Gold will reach this price?”

    The answer is; I really do not know! It could be in the coming year or it could be in a couple of years or it could be in a couple of months. Just wait and see if it does. If the trend does change from down trend to up trend then obviously we need to get onto the train.

    Next question will be; Where is it likely to reach and the short answer is that it will probably be slightly short of the all time high before it takes a breather and I am confident that there will be a lot of shorts at the 1900 mark or thereabouts if gold were to attempt to surpass that. If it does, expect an “Act of God” to be in play.

    The biggest issue with traders/investors is to overthink the trade. Applying fundamentals technical and a plethora of instruments before we reach a decision.

    Many years ago I went out with a couple of friends for a weekend to a house next to Lake Naivasha. I was with our host when during the evening drinks as we sat by an open fire he narrated the story of a hunt that took place a few years before in the area where we were staying. The lake is surrounded by Hippos, Buffaloes and small predators as well as an abundance of green Mambas and Black Mambas. More people die from snake bite rather than succumbing to the more exotic predator. There are several other species that make their presence felt occasionally and most victims die from puff adders and Gabon viper bites. However rarely there are deaths from encountering buffaloes and Hippos. Neither is advocated for a face to face.

    On this occasion our past hunter fan; A fellow archer found himself facing the Kenya Wild Life service officers who informed him that there was an old one eyed buffalo in the area and who had been responsible for two deaths already and that the officers needed his permission to come on his land to retrieve the property of the Kenya Government.

    In Kenya all wild life is a treasure of the government and wild life on ones land does not belong to you to do as one pleases with it as is the case in some states in the United States. My friend was very interested in accompanying the officers to track down the creature , but things get interesting here… When tracking a dangerous creature once the vicinity is known one would rather wait for it to come to you rather than going knocking on its door. Buffaloes use a fantastic stealth technique disappearing into the bush only to emerge a half hour later from behind you and give you a sound trashing if not kill you. These massive creatures despite their huge girth (near to or larger than a bison) and a height that can be greater than 6 feet at the shoulders are silent and deadly. More people die from Buffalo and hippo attacks in Africa than from Lions and leopards.

    It became fairly clearly in the next half hour that the officers were not experienced in bringing down a buffalo in its own territory. They prefer thick thorny bush and their grey skin camouflages beautifully into the background. He had over a hundred of these beasts on his land and knew how they worked so he preferred to keep an eye on his back rather than the front which he left to the officers. As he stepped into the bush he paused. He called to the officers and informed them it was ill advised to go to the old bull but rather let him come to them eventually once they had located him. The head warden was a little impatient and decided to ignore the advice, my friend took his bow and went up a slight hill from where he could watch what he anticipated to be an engagement that might require medical help for the officers. Of the four only one was old enough to have experience in bringing down a bull of this size and furthermore if he was not a good shot the bull was going to be pretty mad and that made him even more dangerous.

    With a rock face to his back my friend waited patiently until the commotion began with several shots fired and than a pause for about 20 minutes to half an hour. My friend sat patiently waiting for the team to exit the bush but what followed was not un expected. Three officers ran out of the bush in different directions and another shot was fired followed by a lot of grunting and screaming. Eventually a bloody scratched and brutalised warden appeared from the bush hobbling along. He was walking so he was alive….

    My friend cautiously made sure that there were no buffalos or hippos in the near vicinity and then calmly walked up to the now regathered officers and warden. The warden then narrated what had occurred. They had approached the old bull and the warden took a head shot at the old bull never realising that his bullet would have little or no impact of the old bull except to make him mad. He missed the three other shots and then looked for the bull trying to follow him. The Bull circumnavigated around him and ambushed him and his officers, he go the brunt of the hoofs and luckily never got hit by the sharp ends of the bulls horns instead he took the butting of his life and had a couple of rib fractures and grazing to his hips and legs where the bull tried to get him with his horns.

    After assisting the warden back to the house and calling the wardens office for am ambulance they had the time to talk where my friend now patiently explained the way to take a buffalo. He pointed out that the calibre of the bullet would require to be far more excessive than what the Warden had brought with him in order to take a head shot. The warden listened as my friend narrated his plan to take down the buffalo. He proposed that they build a platform in a tree with some clearing around it. He further proposed that the buffalo be enticed with food to bring him to the clearing and once the target was clear to take the shot………with a bow. The warden thought my friend was crazy but my friend had a 90 pound compound bow and a draw length that took the full length of 34 inches. He therefore also required that the arrows diameter be larger and the wall be thicker. He also showed the warden where he would hit the arrow and explained the kind of hunting tip he required to use to induce maximum damage.

    The warden was an intelligent man and saw the logic of a silent shot and form a place of safety. The buffalo would never get the scent as they would be in the trees and since the shot was silent it was less likely to startle the animal until the penetration took place. After the permission was given and relevant licenses provided my friend set about preparing the platform and enticed the buffalo with fresh cut stalks and sugar cane which both elephants and buffalo love.

    They waited for three days and nights missing the buffalo on several occasion but always restocking the food supply as other animals equally loves the stuff. Eventually one late evening the buffalo came down and nibbled at the tit bits left my friend was in perfect positon and with the warden by his side he took a shot at the buffalo just behind his front leg joint. The blade of the arrow tip would spring open after it penetrated the buffalo and slice through vital organs including various arteries and the heart possible. My friend never saw the arrow hit all he saw was the buffalo take off and the warden doing the mimic of an enraged Hitler. He genuinely thought he had missed the buffalo from about 40 yards. They climbed down and followed the buffalo to the edge of the clearing where they saw the blood and this confirmed that the buffalo was hit, they could hear it crushing through the bush and then there was silence. They waited for an hour before they decided to follow the blood trail as it became more abundant that this was a major injury with the loss of blood. They found the animal dead about 500 meters in the bush. The arrow had gone in the full length and only the tip showed on the outside. The warden looked at the shot and stood in awe of the prowess of the bow.

    Now you are thinking; “what in gods name does all of this have to do with gold or uranium or any thing to do with investment?”

    It has one vital lesson for investors and that is; Do not run after the stock or panic and invest. Do your home work and let the price come to you.

    Set up your resistance and support lines on a graph starting in stocks with monthly then weekly and finally daily charts. Adjust the lines and add any that you missed.

    Next; check the trend. Look at the monthly weekly and daily trends. Try to at least have weekly and daily trends in sync. Finally set your platform and wait for the price to come to your area where you think it will reverse. Look for a good return (more on that and money management in another article) . Wait patiently for the price to come to your area and then look for price action signals such as a pin bar reversal or an engulfing candle to give an indication that the price is about to reverse. Next never be adverse to taking shorts either. Trade either way!

    That’s the difference between investors and traders. Investors always go long never short. Traders go either way. Finally I will say this. The mind set is your biggest enemy. Whether you are hunting or trading or investing. That also requires to be dealt with at a later date.

    Be patient and above all “admit to yourself that you will be wrong and if you are wrong get out. Don’t sit there in hope or in fear. When a lion attacks you you don’t hope it will turn away …you run like hell and think hope later.

    For now I am glad to be back and hopefully there will be regular articles in the coming year.



    It will be another six months before things will be sorted out for now ….I will bid you a good day.



    SAGI
     
  2. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    SAGI

    Sorry for your loss and the divorce.

    Good to see you posting again and looking for your next one.

    Have a great week.

    Search
     
  3. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Dear Sir Searcher,

    Thank you for your kind words and I do indeed intend to post more often.

    Kindest Regards

    SAGI
     
  4. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Watch this video



    SAGI
     
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  5. enricopallazzo

    enricopallazzo Silver Member Silver Miner

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    43:00 start of nuclear discussion
     
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  6. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    trying....

    [​IMG]
     
  7. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  8. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  9. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  10. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Nice move today in my uranium portfolio
     
  11. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    The glow is real and I told you the exact perfect moment to buy in......


    [​IMG]
     
  12. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  13. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Uranium is now in a bull cycle. This sector tends to produce even more momentum than gold and silver. I would stay away from U.S. based producers
     
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  14. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I thinned everything friday. Only holding ura and ccj for now. Too much too fast
     
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  15. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Just posting a bump to the thread. Take it fwiw and dyodd.

    INVESTIGATION: The key to solving climate change a REAL money maker? GoviEx Uranium Documentary
    CEO.CA



    Documentary about GoviEx Uranium (TSXV:GXU), a Canadian-based, Africa-focused uranium exploration and development company.

    THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Goviex Uranium is a CEO.CA client and producer Jonathan Roth is long GXU at the time of publication, which makes him biased. Additionally, GoviEx Uranium is a high-risk penny stock that is not suitable for most investors. The above video and article is for informational purposes only and is neither a solicitation for the purchase of securities nor an offer of securities. Viewers are expressly cautioned to seek the advice of a registered investment advisor and other professional advisors, as applicable, regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or any investment strategies, including those discussed above. All facts are to be verified by the viewer. Either the producer, CEO.CA or its consultants may from time to time hold or transact in the securities mentioned. Read GoviEx's profile on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures.
     
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  16. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    Energy Fuels well poised to capitalize on improving uranium markets in 2017
    ProactiveInvestors Stocktube



    Published on Jan 12, 2017
    Curtis Moore, Energy Fuels' vice president of marketing, said the Toronto and New York listed firm was likely to be the second largest producer of uranium in the USA in 2016 after Cameco.
    The market has been in decline in recent years but excitingly is now showing signs of life, he noted, with production cuts in Kazakhstan and new legislation in the USA, factors behind the price rise.
    "We are going to produce about a million pounds (of uranium) in 2016," he said.
    "Until the recent increase in prices we were looking to cut production a little bit in 2017 but we now have the ability to actually increase production if we see the sustained price increase," he added.
     
  17. OverOver

    OverOver Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    I have Energy Fuels. Took me awhile to warm to them especially after we got konged by a
    special flow through placement. The money was definitely needed and the projects going along.

    I won't buy a uranium company unless the people running it have the nuclear look.

    This is the only other uranium company I own.

    http://www.energyres.com.au/company/board/
     
  18. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Safe to say I picked bottom, documented in real time here?
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2017
  19. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  20. OverOver

    OverOver Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    If you were only buying Uranium X for uranium.

    One Fuki and we could be screwed.
     
  21. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    URA, all shares gone. Stops hit.
     
  22. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  23. Usury

    Usury Gold Chaser Platinum Bling

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    So how does one invest in that with a GIM mind-set? If you don't hold it...you live?
     
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  24. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  25. OverOver

    OverOver Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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    I'm out of uranium stocks as of a couple hours ago. The uranium market is clustered up.
    Sold uuuu @ 2.33 & 2.34 for around $400 to the green. Now uuuu is @ 2.28

    I read two articles over the weekend that screamed avoid to me.
    Tepco has told Cameco to go fog themselves, we aren't taking anymore fuel or honoring
    the contracts to take it. Court time. Search 'Tepco Cameco' and pull up an eyeful.

    And this from Zero Hedge: Toshiba appears in big trouble with it's plans with Westinghouse
    to build reactors....http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/why-its-big-bet-westinghouse-nuclear-bankrupting-toshiba
     
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  26. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Hello everyone,
    I am still around but there have been other matters on my mind as many will know. Just have not found enough time to churn out another article. I am glad there is activity on the thread and once more thank all of you for keeping it alive. I am afraid there is no light at the end of my tunnel as yet so please do carry on I will post as and when I can.

    Kindest regards
    SAGI
     
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  27. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    "Mindset" being the key word here. One must ride according to the nature of the beast.
    Secondly remember that everyone's nature is different and everyone will have a different style of investing/trading.
    It is within you to come up with a system that suits U. If it works for you it is successful.
    There is no one system that works for all because of the above mentioned.
    SAGI
     
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  28. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  29. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    I'll get interested in uranium again, 4th quarter
     
  30. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    URA $12.96 is when i'll start looking at uranium again
     
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  31. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I did a little research on the possible reasons as to why Japan is reluctant to start up their power stations aside from the usual politics and people power. It appears that mega earthquakes are often followed by another one within short time periods (relatively speaking) Short time periods can be withing 5 to 10 years possibly. Scientists had to throw the book out after Fukushima Tohoku earth quake and the resultant Tsunami. They had to look back in history past times when written records have been kept and find statistically this is true. There is one possibility of the bay of Tokyo taking the brunt of a tsunami and the other is the western coast of the USA where the last major one goes back over 275 years. Checking various lines the frequency of major Earthquakes/Tsunamis appear to travel in pairs. The historical period is approximately 250 years when a major earthquake occur on average and appears overdue on the west coast of USA. The Japan one is expected to have one as quickly as possibly this year but again its all theoretical. Do your own due diligence. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...r-tsunami-decimate-unprepared-north-west.html

    SAGI
     
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  32. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  33. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  35. OverOver

    OverOver Silver Member Silver Miner Site Supporter

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  36. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  37. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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  38. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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  39. louky

    louky Silver Member Silver Miner

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    Sector is a hot mess. As posted previously, I'm waiting for it to come all the way back to me. Target posted and that is where I will buy. Simply a matter of patience.
     
  40. SAGI

    SAGI Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    Good Day everyone!
    I am still alive ....alive being the key word here. I have continued to watch the uranium majors in Canada, Australia etc. The buyers are still in control of the price so in reality there is no change for investors however traders going in and out of various stocks can take advantage of recent volatility. We draw near to the summer where prices do come down but the trend remains stagnant or down for this period. I continue to hold CCJ (Cameco) and Dennison but neither has made any major moves that show a significant trend change. I am glad to see new faces appearing on the thread and my thanks to all of you who have continued to support the thread.

    I continue to monitor price changes in gold and despite various analysis wait to offer an opportunity for investors to partake in the purchase of gold. I still continue to believe in my analysis mentioned in one of the above articles and despite no longer being in a position to invest will inform others when the right time arrives.

    I continue to monitor the progress of the Great British pound and despite recent moves up there is a possibility..nay probability of a good correction occurring in both the FTSE and GBPUSD against the dollar. This correction may provide an indication to support my theory that the pound may possibly retest or drop further down in hindsight of the Brexit (Britain exiting the EU) vote that occurred last year. The time for volatility nears as the general elections near here in the UK.

    The Euro also has gained strength both, against the pound as well as the dollar in the last month as the elections were mentioned and France showing a positive move to the middle right in their presidential elections provided a gain for the Euro. However if Le Penn does draw nearer or takes the lead we shall see the Euro Slip in coming days. Time will tell.

    SAGI
     
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